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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone INDLALA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone INDLALA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20070311 23:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/222351ZJUN2004//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952Z MAR 07//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 59.0E TO 14.3S 55.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 58.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
60.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 58.8E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF
A WELL-DEFINED LWO LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 111827Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EQUATOR-
WARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 122300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/222351ZJUN2004//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/112300Z MAR 07//
REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952Z MAR 07//
NARR/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 13.4S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.3S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.5S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.8S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
EVIDENCE OF TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN A 112310Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT TC 19S HAS FORMED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN THE AMSU-B IMAGE.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPH-
ERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF LA REUNION. TC 19S
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM PROVIDES A COMPETING
STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND THE ACCOMPANYING
STEERING FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALLOWING TC 19S TO CONTINUE WESTWARD A BIT MORE RAPIDLY. GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48, AS REFLECTED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 112300Z MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070312 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952Z MAR 07//
NARR/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.0S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED SOUTH OF LA REUNION. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
WARD INITIALLY, BUT WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH AFRICA. TC
19S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DUE TO GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
UPDATED STORM NAME TO INDLALA. ORIGINAL WARNING LISTED STORM NAME
AS INDLADA DUE TO ERROR ON U.S. HELD NAME LIST. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (JACOB)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/222351ZJUN2004//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111952Z MAR 07//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 13.0S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.2S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.8S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.4S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 54.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED AND INTEN-
SIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF MAD-
AGASCAR. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOZ-
AMBIQUE CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 19S IS INDUCING A WEAK-
NESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. THE STORM IS FORE-
CAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERIPHERY
THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DE-
VELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. GOOD EQUATORAWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED EAST OF THE STORM IS BEGIN-
NING TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE STORM REACHES THE SUB-
TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY AND TURNS SOUTHWARD, THOUGH,
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD DEVELOP, ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSITY
TO INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 AND
INCREASE MORE SLOWLY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STORM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z
AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 54.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 54.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.5S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.1S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.1S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TC 19S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGE IN
DIRECTION. THIS SLOWER SPEED IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24,
AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. TC 19S
WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGIC RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTLFOW, SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND
141500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.4S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.1S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.8S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.6S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 52.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SMALL, IRREGULAR EYE WITH A 10-NM
DIAMETER HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE EYE HAS WARMED. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TOWARD A DEFINITE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME. THE MAJORITY OF
AIDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AID
INDICATES A WESTWARD TRACK INTO MADAGASCAR BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD
AFTER TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE AIDS.
TC 19S WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY
DUE TO THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTLFOW WITH
INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070314 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 14.3S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.0S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.3S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS INTENS-
IFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH LAND. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150300Z AND 151500Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070315 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 50.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 50.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.2S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.8S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 50.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM HAD INTENSIFIED TO A MAXIMUM ESTIMATED INTENS-
ITY OF 125 KNOTS AT 131800Z BEFORE NEARING THE COAST AND WEAKENING
TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MOUN-
TAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS CURRENTLY
INHIBITING FORWARD MOVEMENT AND HAS INDUCED A TURN TOWARD A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTARD TO FOLLOW LOWER TERRAIN NORTH OF
THE MASOALA PENINSULA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12,
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
WARD THROUGH RELATIVELY LOW TERRAIN TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070315 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 49.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.7S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 49.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND HAS SLOWLY WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
CONTINUES TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF TS 19S. THE LOW LEVEL CIR-
CULATION CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
FOLLOW LOWER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE MASOALA PENINSULA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE STORM WILL
WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER LAND BEYOND TAU 12 AND DISSIPATE BEFORE TAU 36.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20070316 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (INDLALA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 48.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 48.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.4S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (INDLALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 19S CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARD A WEAKNESS CREATED BY MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING. THE SYSTEM
MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 15/0300Z AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL LOOP EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152213Z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOW RAPIDLY
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY UPSLOPE. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS AND
PERSISTENCE. THE AIDS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL
LIKELY TRACK BACK OVER WATER NEAR THE 36 TO 48-HOUR POINT AND
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER 3000 TO 5000 FOOT MOUNTAINS AND IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_indlala_jtwc_advisories.htm
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