Tropical Cyclones
[Index]
Main Index Home Page Stock Weather Photos Extreme Storms Discussion Storm News and Storm Chasing Reports Tropical Cyclones / Hurricanes / Typhoons Weather Data and Links Wild Fires / Bushfires Weather Observation Techniques Weather Picture Catalogue Tornado Pictures and Reports Stock Video Footage and DVDs for sale
Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR : JTWC Advisories
Season 2006-2007 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20070123 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 232021Z JAN 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 173.7W TO 15.6S 159.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 172.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6S
175.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER WITH A LARGER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. A 231526Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED,
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK DEEP CONVECT-
IVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. RECENT SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
PAGO PAGO SHOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (SLP) NEAR 1002 MB AND EAST-NORTH-
EAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS. THESE REPORTS ALSO INDICATE ABOUT A 4 MB DROP
IN SLP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH FAIR OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE BY A WEAK MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE STRONG LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 242030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232021ZJAN2007//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ARTHUR) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 165.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 165.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 15.8S 160.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 18.0S 156.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.9S 152.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 26.6S 149.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 164.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ARTHUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AS ILLUSTRATED IN A 240921Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE AN INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES A MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INDUCE CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER INCREASING SHEAR AFTER
TAU 12 AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AFTER TAU 24 WILL INDUCE A
STEADY WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRANSITS POLEWARD INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE PATTERN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 232021Z JAN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ARTHUR) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 160.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 160.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.6S 156.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.7S 153.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 24.5S 150.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ARTHUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 09P
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOST THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
AROUND ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EYE FEATURE WAS
BRIEFLY APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THE
MOST RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, TC 09P IS
BEGINNING TO LINK WITH A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH-
WARD FROM THE FORMER 08P. TC 09P IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MIGRATES TO THE SOUTHEAST, 09P WILL BE RAPIDLY STEERED
AROUND ITS OUTER PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL, DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF COLDER MIDLATITUDE
AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ARTHUR) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 156.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 156.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 20.0S 153.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 24.0S 151.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 28.2S 148.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 155.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ARTHUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P CONTINUES TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDLATITUDETROUGH LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, TC 09P HAS WEAKENED
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER THECOMPETING INFLUENCES OF
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 250857Z
AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUNEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEASTAND DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. THROUGH
TAU 36, TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 09P WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR AND
DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 09P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION
BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070126 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ARTHUR) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 153.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 153.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 22.9S 151.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 26.6S 150.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 153.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ARTHUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IM-
AGERY REVEALS THAT 09P IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND
HAS
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM A MIDLATITUDE
LOW NEAR 30S. COLDER DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO WRAP TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS INDICATED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
SEEN ON SATELLITE. SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS FLARED NEAR THE LLCC
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20070126 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ARTHUR) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 23.6S 149.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 149.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 27.9S 147.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 149.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ARTHUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF 09P INDICATES THAT 09P
HAS REINTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
09P WAS BASED ON A 2323Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE FIX AND SUPPORTED
BY A 261728Z SSMI PASS THAT INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE.  SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BREAKDOWN IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF 09P, ALLOWING WARM, MOIST AIR TO WRAP INTO THE EASTERN SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM AND HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO TRACK RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO SEA SURFACE TEMP-
ERATURES (SST) BELOW 24C. A MORE RECENT 262159Z TRMM PASS INDICATES
A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE CONTINUED INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND THE DECREASE
IN SSTS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12.  THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS
15 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
Document: tropical_cyclone_arthur_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017