Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CARINA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2005-2006 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CARINA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20060223 03:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230321Z FEB 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 81.5E TO 11.9S 80.3E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 81.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.1S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY
555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 230032Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER A MORE ORGANIZED AND SLIGHTLY ELON-
GATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND A MORE ORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240330Z.//
=========================================================================
TXS32 PGTW 20060223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/230752ZFEB2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230321ZFEB2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.6S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.8S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 80.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BUILDING RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230321Z
FEB 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230330) MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20060223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 81.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 81.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.8S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND ONLY
MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20060224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.2S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.7S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.2S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.8S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 81.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT
LESS THAN IDEAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND
250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 80.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 80.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.6S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.2S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.6S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 80.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF
TC 14S WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A 12- TO 24-HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.9S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.6S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.8S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 79.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTEN-
SIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, CAUSING TC
14S TO TURN POLEWARD AND WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 80.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 80.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.1S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY
POLEWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING
RIDGES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH TC 14S INTENSIFIED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST
POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS TEMPORARILY HAMPERED OUTFLOW.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD, THE
SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, AND
TC 14S WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS.
MOREOVER, UPPER LEVEL STORM OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE, AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.1S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.3S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND, AND CONVECTION REMAINS SYMMETRIC
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 14S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT REMAINS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS, HOWEVER, POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO GREATLY DEVELOP. TC 14S WILL REMAIN
OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.8S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.6S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS A SMALL EYE IN THE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. TC 14S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST, TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND
272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060227 09:00z
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.1S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.9S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.4S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE, AND A 27/0303Z SSMIS MIC-
ROWAVE PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ALMOST SYMMETRIC WITHIN THE EYE-
WALL. FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, TC 14S HAS BEEN STEERED ON AN ALMOST DUE
POLEWARD TRACK BY AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST. DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 14S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
SECONDARY ANTICYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OF TC 14S IN
RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL THEN
FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BETWEEN THESE TWO
ANTICYCLONES. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUT-
FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.6S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.5S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.5S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING
RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTH-
WESTERLY TRACK PAST TAU 12. INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DI-
MINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 78.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.9S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.5S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.0S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 78.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST
WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THE POLEWARD RIDGE, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK BY TAU 36.
INTENSITY OF TC 14S WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOR-
ABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMMA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.4S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.9S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.7S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 77.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED
BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK PAST
TAU 24. AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060301 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 77.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 77.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.0S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.8S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 77.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS BEING STEERED BY
A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE CAUSED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK PAST TAU 36. AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND
RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AT TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060301 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 76.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 76.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 76.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS CURRENTLY STEERED
BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW,
INDUCING A SLOW TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE STORM HAS
WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DISRUPTION OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
SHEAR VALUES AND LESS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z AND 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060302 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 78.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 78.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.9S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 78.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 14S HAS BEGUN THE EARLY STAGES OF BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION WITHIN 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNING AT 022100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20060302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.2S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 77.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
POLEWARD OF TC 14S HAS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISPLACED
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER. A 021540Z SSMI
PASS DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
NEARLY 135 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE LLCC
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE CONVECTION, TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER RATHER THAN COMPLETE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 16 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_carina_jtwc_advisories.htm
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