Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone AROLA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone AROLA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20041108 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080151Z NOV 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S7 80.8E6 TO 13.0S4 77.2E6
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 072330Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S2 80.3E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8S5
81.9E8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 80.3E1, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION AND
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN A LOCATION JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO PERISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080151ZNOV2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 9.7S6 79.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S6 79.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 11.0S2 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 11.9S1 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.7S0 75.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.6S0 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 78.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY FOR THE
FIRST 36 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE HINDERED BY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIF-
ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080151ZNOV2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1
AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041109 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZNOV2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 10.9S0 77.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 77.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 11.5S7 75.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 12.0S3 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 12.4S7 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 12.9S2 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 77.0E4.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED DUE TO A RAPID INTENSIFYING TREND BASED
ON RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PERSISTED
AND INCREASED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. SURFACE INFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG WITH FEEDER BANDS STRETCHING OVER 300 NM EQUATORWARD OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, UKMO,
AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. WBAR RESOLVES A SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS
TC 03S POLEWARD WHILE TCLAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD. UKMO IS
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW, HOWEVER THIS MODEL AND
TCLAPS DEPICT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TC 03S AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN
AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH, THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, THEN MAINTAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 03S MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASED SHEAR, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY,
THE STRENGTH OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD OFFSET ANY RAPID
WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041109 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 11.1S3 76.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 76.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 11.6S8 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 11.9S1 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 12.2S5 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 12.4S7 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 76.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS GREATLY WEAKENED AND THE EYE HAS
DISAPPEARED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF TCLAPS,
UKMO, AVN, GFDN, NOGAPS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH RESOLVES A POLEWARD SOLUTION. THE SYSTEM
IS BOUNDED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE BY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED. THE INTENSITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 11.0S2 75.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 75.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 11.2S4 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.6S8 72.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.8S0 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 11.9S1 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 74.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING
AGENCIES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN
OVERALL CONVECTION, AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SITUATED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THERE IS VERY
LITTLE RADIAL OUTFLOW IN OTHER QUADRANTS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF TCLAPS, GFDN, UKMO, MM5, AND WBAR ARE IN POOR TO FAIR
AGREEMENT. MM5 AND WBAR RESOLVE A SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS TC 03S POLE-
WARD AFTER TAU 12 WHILE GFDN AND UKMO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK. TCLAPS RESOLVES A SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EQUATOR-
WARD. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL GAIN
IN LATITUDE AFTER TAU 24. THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 03S MOVES ALONG A REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON MM5 AND WBAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 10.5S6 75.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 75.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 10.7S8 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 10.8S9 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 10.9S0 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 10.9S0 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 74.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
1005330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND
77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH
A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD. RECENT CIMSS DATA
INDICATES A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT ALSO INDICATES TC
03S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, TLAPS, MM5, AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. BASED ON THE
STORMS TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE FORECASTED
TRACK HAS BEEN DEVIATED FROM THE CONW TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR TC 03S TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING A LOOP AND THEN CONTINUING TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 10.9S0 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.2S4 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 11.6S8 71.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 11.9S1 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.0S3 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.0S2 73.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONTINUED DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS POLEWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC). TC 03S IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1
AND 112100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 11.2S4 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 11.8S0 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.3S6 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.8S1 70.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.4S7 69.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 74.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 110530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS POLEWARD OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 48 IS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND
120900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 12.1S4 73.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 73.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.9S2 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.7S1 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 14.6S1 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.2S9 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 73.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35, 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS POLEWARD OF A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 12.6S9 73.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 73.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.4S8 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 14.4S9 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 15.8S4 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 17.7S5 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 73.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CREATED BY A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 12.7S0 71.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 71.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.1S5 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.8S2 69.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 14.8S3 68.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.0S7 68.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 71.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION, AND A 121627Z9 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ALONG A SOUTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN IT WILL
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT ENCOUNTERS A REGION OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121800Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AROLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 13.1S5 69.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 69.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 13.6S0 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 69.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AROLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. DURING
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, CONVECTION OVER TC 03S HAS DISSIPATED. A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS EVIDENT IN
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, HOWEVER, RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130600Z0 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_arola_jtwc_advisories.htm
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