WTXS21 PGTW 20041204 02:00z
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 040151ZDEC2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S7 112.1E5 TO 13.1S5 105.9E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
032330Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
10.6S7 109.8E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7
112.4E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 109.8E8, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONVERGING
ON A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH SPIRAL BANDING
INDICATING A GOOD OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050200Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZDEC04//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 10.9S0 109.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 109.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 11.6S8 108.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 12.2S5 106.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 12.9S2 105.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 13.6S0 104.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 109.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 05S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24 WILL BE
HINDERED AS TC 05S ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 040151Z1 DEC 04 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040200). NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 12.6S9 107.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 107.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 13.6S0 106.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.2S7 105.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.8S3 103.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 15.4S0 102.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 107.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH
OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
TROPICAL EASTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MODERATELY INTEN-
SIFY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 12.3S6 108.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 108.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 12.9S2 107.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 13.6S0 106.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 14.4S9 105.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 15.7S3 103.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 108.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 050530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
FLARING CONVECTION AND A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVER-
GENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20041205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 13.2S6 106.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 106.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 13.9S3 105.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 106.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH
OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. SATEL-
LITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 05S HAS TRACKED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WESTWARD WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
COMBINED WITH SOUTHWESTWARD FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS HAS SHEARED
APART TC 05S AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A LOSS OF ORGANIZATION, AS WELL
AS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 13 FEET. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200505_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]