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Tropical Cyclone ZOE : JTWC Advisories
Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ZOE Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20021225 08:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250821Z DEC 02//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 179.9W6 TO 11.6S8 176.0E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250530Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6S7
178.9E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 178.8W4 HAS
BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 178.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH OF
THE FIJI ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLIC, BUT ORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION
WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1003 MB. BASED ON THE
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260830Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021225 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250821ZDEC2002//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 11.0S2 177.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 177.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 11.6S8 176.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 11.8S0 174.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 12.0S3 173.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 12.2S5 171.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 177.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH OF THE
FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
INCREASING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN WESTWARD AFTERWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT OR NEAR A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0
IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 250821Z DEC 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 250830). NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021226 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- NEAR 10.9S0 175.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 175.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 11.0S2 173.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 11.0S2 171.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 11.1S3 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 11.1S3 168.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0  174.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z7
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC 06P SHOULD INTENSIFY NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021226 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 10.8S9 173.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 173.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 11.1S3 172.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 11.2S4 170.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 11.6S8 169.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 12.4S7 168.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 173.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH CREATED BY AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE AFWA MM5 MODEL
DOESN'T SUGGEST ANY POLEWARD MOVEMENT AT 48 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS MINUS THE AFWA MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021227 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 11.1S3 172.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 172.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 11.5S7 171.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 12.0S3 170.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 12.5S8 169.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 13.2S6 169.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 172.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 18 NM EYE FEATURE AND CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
THEN, TC 06P, ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SHOULD
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
POLEWARD TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NGPS AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN)
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR) DOES
NOT CATCH THE WEAKNESS AS SOON, THUS IS SLOW TO TURN THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD. JTWC ATTRIBUTES THIS TO UNDERESTIMATION OF STORM STRENGTH
AND A WEAKER APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 11.7S9 170.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 170.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 12.3S6 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 13.0S4 168.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 170 KT, GUSTS 205 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 13.7S1 168.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 14.6S1 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 170.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
20 NM EYE AND CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
CREATE A WEAKNESS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A POLEWARD TURN
AFTER 36 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD NEAR ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL. THE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF GFDN, NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN
TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021228 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 12.2S5 169.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 169.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 12.6S9 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 13.3S7 168.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 14.3S8 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 15.7S3 170.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.3S6 169.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 26 NM EYE FEATURE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERY
STRONG STORM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
POLEWARD TURN AFTER 24 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH MID-PERIOD. IT SHOULD WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
IT BECOMES SHEARED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), AFWA MM5, AUSTRALIAN BOM TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z6 AND 290300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 281500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 12.5S8 169.2E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 169.2E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 13.3S7 168.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 14.4S9 169.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 15.5S1 170.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 17.0S8 172.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 169.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 AND 155 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A 20 NM EYE
FEATURE REMAINS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL RESULT
IN A POLEWARD TURN AFTER 12 HOURS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGH MID-PERIOD. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5,
AUSTRALIAN BOM TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN ONLY MARGINAL
AGREEMENT, WITH TLAPS AND TCLAPS BIASED TOWARDS THE WEST AND EAST
RESPECTIVELY. THE REMAINING DYNAMIC AIDS ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL
TRACK, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE LATE PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
INTENSITY FORECAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TLAPS AND TCLAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021229 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 169.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 169.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 13.3S7 170.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 14.5S0 171.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 15.5S1 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.5S3 174.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 169.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SSM/I
PASSES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 6.0/6.5 (115/127 KTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TC 06P'S
PAST 12 HOUR PERSISTENCE INDICATE THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM, MOVING
TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, HAS BEGUN TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NWP ALL INDICATE MOVEMENT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLIES.
HOWEVER, GFS, TLAPS, AND THE UKMET SPECTRAL SHOW A TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON AN NWP CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE
NOGAPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z1 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX 290000 FOR FURTHER SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021229 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 170.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 170.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 14.7S2 171.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 16.1S8 172.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.6S4 173.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 19.5S5 174.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 170.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 TO 127, ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR DVORAK CONSTRAINTS AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THIS INFLUENCE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HAVE BEGUN. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS INDICATE MOVEMENT WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLIES, HOWEVER, BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AVN AND EGRR INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON AN NWP CONSENSUS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE
NOGAPS, GFDN AND AFWA MM5 SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 291200Z4 IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021230 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300000Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 171.6E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 171.6E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z6 --- 15.2S8 172.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.3S1 174.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 19.1S1 175.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 20.5S7 175.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 171.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSM/I PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
5.0/5.5 (90 KTS/102 KTS). WATER VAPOR ANIMATION, A 291850Z5 QUIKSCAT
PASS, AND THE MOST RECENT SSM/I PASSES ALL DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
COMPLETED THE FIRST STAGE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYNOPTIC
DATA AND IMAGERY REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
RAINBANDS OVER THE WEST QUADRANT AND A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE RAINBANDS
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION TO A CLASSIC ASYMMETRIC
APPEARANCE, THE SSM/I PASS DEPICTED EYEWALL COLLAPSE OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. THE 85 GHZ PCT AND LIQUID WATER IMAGES ALSO SHOWED THAT THE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH QUAD. TC 06P SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN,
NOGAPS, BOM TCLAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND THE UKMET GLOBAL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31
RJTX 300000 FOR FURTHER SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9
AND 310300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021230 15:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 15.9S5 173.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 173.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 17.3S1 174.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 18.7S6 175.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 20.2S4 175.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 21.9S2 175.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 173.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND A 300942Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (65 KTS/77 KTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 300550Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS, AND RECENT
SSM/I PASSES ALL INDICATE THAT 06P CONTINUES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION, WITH THE SYSTEM COMPLETING THE TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND THE SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING
DRY AIR AROUND THE ENTIRE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, BECOMING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF PERIOD.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, THE AFWA
MESOSCALE (MM5), AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z6 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021231 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 16.4S1 173.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 173.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 17.6S4 173.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 19.4S4 173.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 21.3S6 173.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 22.9S3 172.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 173.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (65 KTS/77 KTS) AND A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS DUE TO COOL, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 06P SHOULD CONTINUE
ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GFDN, NOGAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE
(MM5), AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20021231 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- NEAR 18.3S2 174.2E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 174.2E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 19.9S9 174.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 21.4S7 174.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 22.8S2 173.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 23.5S0 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 74.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST
OF FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS REINTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE, WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS - GFDN,
NOGAPS, NCEP AVN, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND
011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030101 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZOE) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 20.2S4 174.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 174.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 21.9S2 174.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 23.6S1 173.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 24.8S4 171.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 174.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZOE), LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 312330Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KTS). VISIBLE
AND WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS. THE
NORTH QUADRANT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK CLOUD LINES, IS NOW
DEEP CONVECTION FREE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS POLAR FINGER JET
SUPPORT TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITHIN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CREATED BY A LOW/MID RIDGE EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 RJTX 010000 FOR FURTHER SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_zoe_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017