Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone HARRIET : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS32 PGTW 20030302 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- NEAR 14.1S6 106.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 106.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 14.7S2 108.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 15.2S8 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 15.8S4 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 16.3S0 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 107.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS AND A 020006Z8 TRMM PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET
(EGRR) AND NOGAPS. UKMET TRACKED THE SYSTEM FASTER WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR, NOGAPS,
AND THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z8 IS 15 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 012051Z9 MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030302 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.9S4 108.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 108.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 15.3S9 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 15.6S2 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.9S5 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 108.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021421Z0 SSM/I PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 KNOTS AND THE SSM/I PASS. MIROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
GOOD CIRCULATION, HOWEVER ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEAK DUE TO
POOR UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS THROUGH 24 HOURS, ATERWARDS, TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET (EGRR) AND NOGAPS. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EGRR AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 030900Z2
AND 032100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE,
USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030303 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 110.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 110.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.9S4 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 15.1S7 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.3S9 114.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.5S1 115.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 110.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
AND 30 KNOTS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 21S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF UKMET
(EGRR), GFDN, NOGAPS, AND GFS AVIATION (AVN). THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND
040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030303 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 111.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 111.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 17.2S0 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 111.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 21S TO BE A SMALL, RELATIVELY
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM. TC 21S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT A STEADY STATE
OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HIDDEN UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). RECENT SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES INDICATE THAT TC 21S IS BEING
HAMPERED IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED
BY THE NUMEROUS ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK MET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL (AVN) THE LONE
OUTLIER ACCELERATING 19S TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND
042100Z7.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: IN REMARKS, CHANGED TC 19S TO CORRECT
STORM NUMBER, TC 21S.
RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030304 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 15.0S6 112.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 112.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.4S0 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.0S7 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.2S1 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 19.8S8 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7 112.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S IS BEING HAMPERED IN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED BY THE NUMEROUS
ISLANDS THAT COMPRISE INDONESIA TO THE NORTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL AS THE
OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030304 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 15.1S7 113.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 113.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.6S3 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 115.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 19.3S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.3S5 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 113.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 40 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 21S CONTINUES TO
ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE
INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, THEN MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL CONTINUING AS THE
FARTHEST OUTLIER HOLDING TC 21S TO AN EASTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AND PERSISTENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z8, 050900Z4, 051500Z1 AND 052100Z8.
RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 15.4S0 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.1S8 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.2S0 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.5S4 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.6S6 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.1S4 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN
AREAL SIZE, AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM
THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE
INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY
POLEWARD AND ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER MAKING THE TURN POLEWARD,
TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN,
GFDN, AND UKMET OFFICE (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.2S9 115.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 115.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.9S6 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 17.8S6 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.9S8 114.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 20.0S2 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.5S8 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 115.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 21S HAS DECREASED IN AREAL SIZE,
AND SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM FROM THE WEAK DEEP CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES
TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE
INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050600Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY: CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 17.0S8 115.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 115.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.7S5 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 18.7S6 115.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.4S4 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.5S7 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.4S8 112.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 115.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM FROM THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 21S CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN RELATIVELY DRY AIR FROM THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT, WHILE INFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED BY THE
INDONESIAN ISLANDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE ULTIMATELY REVERSING
COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9, 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030305 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 17.3S1 115.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 115.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.0S9 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.8S7 115.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.7S7 115.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.0S3 114.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 23.4S9 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 116.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RE-INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND THE AUSTRALIAN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AVN AN OUTLIER TURNING TC 21S SHARPLY WEST. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS AVN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS ARE AT 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 18.1S0 116.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 116.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 19.0S0 115.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 19.8S8 114.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.6S8 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.6S9 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 23.5S0 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. TC 21S SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
THE AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL MODEL (TCLPS), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. EGRR
AND TCLPS ARE FARTHEST POLEWARD AND TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND NEAR
LEARMONTH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS ARE AT 060900Z5 AND 061500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 19.0S0 114.8E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 114.8E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 19.9S9 113.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 20.7S9 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 21.6S9 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 22.6S0 110.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 25.0S7 107.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.2S2 114.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 19.4S4 114.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 114.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 20.1S3 113.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 20.9S1 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 21.8S1 111.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 22.8S2 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 25.5S2 108.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 114.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061200Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0,
070900Z6 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 19.3S3 115.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 115.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 20.8S0 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 21.6S9 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 22.9S3 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 26.2S0 108.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC
21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR
POINT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061730Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 19.5S5 113.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 20.1S3 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.9S1 111.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.5S9 110.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 26.0S8 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT, INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 062330Z4 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT MAZANY, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 114.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 114.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.6S6 113.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.3S5 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 111.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 27.6S5 110.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 114.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AVN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3,
072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
WTXS32 PGTW 0715001. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 19.3S3 113.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 113.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 19.8S8 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.7S9 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.2S6 109.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 24.4S0 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 28.8S8 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 113.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 071041Z3 SSM/I DEPICT THAT CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BY
MID 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN
ANALYZES A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0, 080300Z1, 080900Z7 AND 081500Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 19.5S5 113.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 113.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 20.1S3 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 21.3S6 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 23.2S7 110.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 25.1S8 109.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 31.0S4 112.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 113.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER
INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, AS MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOLDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. AFTER
24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER SST
WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND TCLAPS
ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER WEST.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030308 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 19.7S7 113.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 113.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 20.5S7 111.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 22.1S5 110.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 112.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS, AND THEN ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER
SST WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), TLAPS, AND
TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D AGREEMENT, WITH THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL FURTHER
WEST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030308 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 20.2S4 112.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 112.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 21.5S8 111.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 23.4S9 109.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 112.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WEAK
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 21S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION, TLAPS, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GO0D
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS
AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030309 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 21.0S3 111.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 111.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 22.2S6 109.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HARRIET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT THE SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY SMALL IN AREAL SIZE. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTH, PARALLEL TO THE AUSTRALIA COAST
IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA FROM THE INDIAN OCEAN. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
SHEAR, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH, AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TC 21S SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
WATER AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE SOUTHWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP
AVIATION, AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS) ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 11
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_harriet_jtwc_advisories.htm
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