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Tropical Cyclone FIONA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone FIONA Track Map and Data

WTXS22 PGTW 20030205 05:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050451Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S9 113.3E8 TO 12.2S5
107.6E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 050430Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9S1 113.6E1, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 112.6E0 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF JAVA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION NEAR A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060500Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030205 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050451ZFEB2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 11.8S0 110.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 110.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 12.0S3 109.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 105.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.5S8 104.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.0S5 101.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0  110.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS
PRODUCTS DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. TC 14S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE INTENSIFYING AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL
MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050451Z FEB 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 050500) NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8, 060300Z9,
060900Z5 AND 061500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 12.0S3 110.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 110.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 12.1S4 109.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 12.2S5 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.4S7 106.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 12.9S2 104.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.7S2 101.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 110.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PRODUCTS DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER, INTENSIFYING AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL,
THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND
062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 03:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 12.1S4 109.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 109.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 108.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 106.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 103.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 100.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 109.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGER (SSM/I) AND QUIKSCAT PASSES. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS PRODUCTS REVEAL OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS GOOD WITH WEAK 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE 
OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, MORE POLEWARD THEREAFTER, WHILE 
INTENSIFYING CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGH THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL 
MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND 
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 15 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 12.0S3 109.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 109.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 12.1S4 108.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.5S8 106.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 13.0S4 104.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 13.7S1 103.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 15.3S9 100.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 109.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF NGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 12.2S5 107.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.6S9 105.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.3S7 104.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 102.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.1S8 99.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 108.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55, AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE JAPANESE GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9, 070300Z0, 070900Z6 AND 071500Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 12.0S3 108.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 108.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 12.2S5 106.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 12.8S1 105.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 13.4S8 103.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.1S6 101.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 16.3S0 98.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 107.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD SHORT TERM, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0, 070900Z6, 071500Z3 AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCL ONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 12.1S4 107.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S4 107.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.4S7 105.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.9S2 104.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 13.8S2 102.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 14.9S4 101.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 107.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 60 AND 70 KNOTS. TC 14S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND
PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030207 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 12.6S9 105.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 105.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.2S6 103.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.2S7 101.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 99.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 97.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 105.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAVA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING OUTFLOW OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL, THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030208 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 13.4S8 103.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 103.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.3S8 101.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 100.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.3S0 98.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.1S9 95.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 103.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
072330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90
KNOTS. A 072320Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICTS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN PARTIAL CONCENTRIC BANDS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF
DRIER AIR. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030208 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 101.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 101.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 100.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.5S2 98.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.5S3 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.4S3 93.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0  101.3E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 16 NM EYE. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS,
GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030209 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 15.3S9 99.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 99.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.2S9 98.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.9S6 96.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 17.8S6 94.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.7S6 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 99.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC 14S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTER 24
HOURS AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF DRIER AIR AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030209 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 012
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 16.4S1 97.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 97.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 17.2S0 95.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.0S9 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 19.1S1 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.3S5 89.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 97.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EYE HAS FILLED. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC
14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5
AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100300Z4 AND 101500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME)
WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030210 03:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 16.7S4 95.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 95.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 17.3S1 92.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 89.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 88.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 86.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 94.7E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 25 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS REFORMED. RECENT
MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DRIER
AND COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. TC
14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN,
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO UNTIL 42 HOURS. AFTER THAT, SOME MODELS MAINTAIN
THE TRACKING OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE RIDGE, IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD
DIRECTION, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS
AND, TO A LESSER EXTENT, GFDN, TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD
WITH AN EQUATORWARD BIAS, DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 AND 110300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030210 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 014
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.7S4 93.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 93.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.9S6 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 17.5S3 90.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 18.9S8 89.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 20.9S1 88.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 93.0E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101130Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH.
NOGAPS AND AFWA MM5 TRACK THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH
POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE FIRST GROUP OF
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030211 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 015
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 92.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 92.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 18.9S8 90.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 20.6S8 90.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 90.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 23.7S2 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 91.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BY MID-PERIOD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND
NCEP GFS TRACK TC 14S INCREASINGLY POLEWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A
PASSING MID-LAT TROUGH. NOGAPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE
OTHER AIDS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
FIRST GROUP OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z2 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030211 15:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 016    
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.5S4 91.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 91.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 19.8S8 90.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 90.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 23.8S3 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 25.5S2 94.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 91.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
111130Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH 
MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP 
AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5 
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION 
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A 
BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 111200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 
121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 16S (GERRY)
(WTXS33 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS32), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR 
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030212 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 017
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 20.0S2 91.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 91.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 21.7S0 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 22.9S3 92.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 24.0S6 93.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 25.0S7 95.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6 91.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CYCLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
MOVES EASTWARD. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), AND AFWA MM5 ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AFWA MM5
TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS MINUS THE MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND
130300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S
(HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030212 15:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 018    
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 91.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 91.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 22.5S9 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 23.6S1 93.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 24.9S5 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 26.0S8 95.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.7S0 92.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
121130Z8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE 
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH MOVES EASTWARD. TC 
14S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM 
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE 
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND 
OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 16S (GERRY)(WTXS33 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)
(WTXS32), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030213 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNING NR 019
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 22.0S4 92.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 92.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 22.6S0 92.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 92.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (FIONA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 14S HAS LOST ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION, AND THE SYSTEM HAS DE-COUPLED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_fiona_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017