Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CRAIG : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CRAIG Track Map and Data |
WTXS23 PGTW 20030308 10:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.4S6 128.7E8 TO 10.9S0 133.6E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 080830Z9 INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S4 129.4E6 IN
THE TIMOR SEA IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8 129.4E6, APPROXIMATELY 100
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z0.
4. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030308 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080951ZMAR03//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951Z MAR 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 11.2S4 128.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 128.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 10.9S0 128.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 10.6S7 129.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 10.4S5 129.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 10.5S6 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 128.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 24S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD FOR THE SHORT TERM, UNDER A MID-
LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW, BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD OVER THE TOP
END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A RIDGE OVER THE
CONTINENT, SOUTH OF TC 24S. CURRENT FORECAST REASONING CALLS FOR TC
24S TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT, THEN
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE AUSTRALIA BOM MODELS (TLAPS AND TCLAPS)
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080951Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS23 PGTW 081000). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND
092100Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030309 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 10.7S8 129.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 129.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 10.7S8 131.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 10.9S0 132.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.4S6 133.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.8S0 135.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.7S8 130.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST AT
7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES
OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR),
AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HARRIET)
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030309 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 10.5S6 130.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 130.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 10.7S8 132.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.1S3 133.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.7S9 134.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.6S9 136.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 131.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, ACROSS THE
TOP END OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, IN NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFICATION SLOWLY, DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, IN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) CONTINUE TO AGREE AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030310 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 11.0S2 131.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 131.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.3S5 132.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.6S8 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 11.9S1 134.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.3S6 135.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 131.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA, IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
BEFORE INTENSIFYING AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) CONTINUE
TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030310 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.5S7 131.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 131.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 11.9S1 132.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.1S4 133.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 134.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 12.7S0 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 131.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.
GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING
RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S
(KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.RELEASED
BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030311 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 11.9S1 132.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 132.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 12.3S6 134.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.5S8 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.0S4 138.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.7S1 140.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3 133.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
0500Z5 WITH MAXIMUM REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS
NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER
THAN UKMET, BASED ON A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND
120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20030311 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 12.5S8 134.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 134.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 12.8S1 136.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 13.2S6 138.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 13.8S2 140.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.5S0 142.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 135.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS
AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
36 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND NEAR CAPE YORK.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER
WATER MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN), ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23S (KALUNDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 20030312 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 13.9S3 139.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 139.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 14.9S4 142.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 15.6S2 144.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 16.3S0 146.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 16.8S5 148.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 140.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA, WAS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE YORK AND
THEN INTO THE CORAL SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER CAPE
YORK AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINER OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
ABOVE LISTED AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TC 22P
(ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) AND TC 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS33 PGTW 20030312 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNING NR 009B CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 16.3S0 142.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 142.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 17.0S8 143.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.0S8 144.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 142.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (CRAIG), LOCATED OVER LAND 220 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 121730Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
TC 24S HAS DE-COUPLED IN LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER CAPE
YORK, AND THE UPPER-LEVELS STREAMING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
A TUTT CELL OVER SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN)
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS DISSIPATION SCENARIO, KEEPING THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON A EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK INTO THE CORAL
SEA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE LISTED AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: THIS MESSAGE CORRECTS MISSING
FINAL WARNING STATEMENTS IN REMARKS.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_craig_jtwc_advisories.htm
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