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Tropical Cyclone AMI : JTWC Advisories
Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone AMI Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20030111 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 110921ZJAN2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S2 178.3W9 TO 14.9S4 179.9W6
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110530Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.3S4 178.8W4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE
CONVECTION IN A BAND SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR,
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH. OUTFLOW ALOFT
REMAINS GOOD. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120921Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030111 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110921ZJAN2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 11.2S4 179.2W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 179.2W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 12.4S7 179.4W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 13.7S1 179.5W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 15.4S0 178.7W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 17.4S2 177.2W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 179.2W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH OF
THE FIJI ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CYCLIC, HOWEVER, CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC
10P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION
(AVN), UK MET OFFICE (EGRR), NOGAPS AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 110921Z JAN 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110930). NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND
122100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 11.4S6 179.9W6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 179.9W6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 12.4S7 179.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 13.9S3 180.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 15.6S2 179.5W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 17.9S7 177.8W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 180.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI  HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD, AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP,
UK MET OFFICE, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND
130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030112 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 12.6S9 179.8E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 179.8E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 14.2S7 179.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 16.5S2 179.9W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.7W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 22.6S0 176.1W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 179.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI  HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING 
FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LOW TO MODERATE. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 10P 
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF 
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS, AS IT BEGINS 
TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN, MOVE INTO, THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), 
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE 
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR 
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 
132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030113 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 14.4S9 179.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 179.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 16.7S4 179.6W3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 20.1S3 178.3W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 23.8S3 175.3W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 168.7W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 179.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF
SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE, WITH STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM,
PROVIDING INCREASED OUTFLOW ABOVE THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL, BUT INCREASES TO THE SOUTH.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24 TO 36
HOURS, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND THEN, MOVE INTO, THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030113 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 16.7S4 179.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 179.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 19.5S5 178.6W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 22.9S3 175.3W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 26.7S5 169.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 30.8S1 161.8W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 179.7W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BEING ENHANCED BY A
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-
LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 03:00z AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 005A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140000Z5 --- NEAR 19.2S2 178.9W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 178.9W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 22.9S3 176.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 26.7S5 171.6W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z9 --- 30.7S0 164.7W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 40 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 35.1S9 156.8W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 178.3W9.
THE 131800Z3 WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AND INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON VISIBLE AND
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
VENTILATED THE SYSTEM MORE THAN EXPECTED, INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 29 NM IRREGULAR EYE HAS FORMED.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN),
UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND
142100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z1 --- NEAR 21.0S3 177.9W4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 177.9W4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 25.0S7 173.9W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 28.9S9 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 32.9S4 159.6W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.9W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 22 NM IRREGULAR EYE. TC 10P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHT AT 140600Z1
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030114 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   141800Z4 --- NEAR 25.1S8 173.4W5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 173.4W5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 29.2S3 167.4W8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 38 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 32.5S0 159.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.1S9 171.9W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. TC 
10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TRANSITION 
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141800Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030115 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (AMI) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z2 --- NEAR 28.8S8 165.7W9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 42 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S8 165.7W9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z5 --- 32.6S1 156.0W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 163.3W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (AMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1085 NM 
SOUTHEAST SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 42 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. TC 10P IS 
NEARING THE FINAL STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED 
TO FINISH TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE FORECAST 
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION.//


Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_ami_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 28 May 2013