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Tropical Cyclone UPIA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone UPIA Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20020525 01:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0S7 155.0E1 TO 9.4S3 151.7E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250030Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 154.0E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
260000Z8.
2. REMARKS:
MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION AND A 37 GHZ TRMM PASS DEPICT A
DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BENEATH
THE SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260130Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020525 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- NEAR 8.2S0 153.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 153.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 8.6S4 153.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 9.2S1 152.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 9.8S7 152.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 10.5S6 152.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 11.8S0 153.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED IN THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 250950Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THE RECENT SSMI PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LLCC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
MAINLY DOMINATED BY A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 250121Z MAY 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 250130) NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020525 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 8.6S4 153.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 153.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 8.9S7 153.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 9.4S3 152.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 10.0S1 152.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 10.8S9 152.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 12.2S5 153.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 8.7S5 153.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED IN THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE DEEP
BURSTS OVER THE LLCC HAVE SUSTAINED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A BANDING
FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A LOW/MID (ROSSBY)
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS SHOULD INFLUENCE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, NWP
INDICATES A REVERSE TROUGH FORMATION CAUSING TC 25P AND A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
INCLUDING NOGAPS AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260300Z1, 260900Z7, 261500Z4 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020526 03:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- NEAR 8.5S3 153.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S3 153.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 8.6S4 152.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 9.2S1 152.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 10.1S2 152.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 10.7S8 153.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 11.7S9 154.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.5S3 153.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS TRACKED 
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 
KNOTS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT MODERATE UPPER 
NORTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO HAMPER OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF 
THE SYSTEM. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL EASTERLIES APPEAR 
TO BE OFFSETTING THE LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES WHICH IS NOW 
GENERATING A TEMPORARY SOUTHWEST DRIFTING MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. THE 
18Z NOGAPS AND AVN RUNS BOTH SHOW THIS DRIFT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE A 
REVERSE TROUGH FORMATION AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS 
THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
260900Z7, 261500Z4, 262100Z1 AND 270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020526 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 9.1S0 153.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S0 153.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 9.9S8 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 10.6S7 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 11.2S4 154.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 11.8S0 155.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 12.8S1 155.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 153.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 260359Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT MODERATE UPPER
NORTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO HAMPER OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE 48
HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THIS TIME, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z4, 262100Z1, 270300Z2 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020526 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- NEAR 9.5S4 153.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 153.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 10.0S1 153.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 10.5S6 153.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 11.0S2 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 11.5S7 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 12.2S5 154.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.6S5 153.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO HAMPER OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER
THIS TIME, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020526 21:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 9.9S8 153.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 153.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 10.5S6 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 11.1S3 154.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 11.5S7 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 11.8S0 154.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 12.3S6 154.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 10.1S2  153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS 
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ENHANCED I/R (BD) ANIMATION DEPICTS WARMING OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALSO, AREAL 
COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. WATER VAPOR AND THE 200 MB 
ANAL INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS JUST SLIPPED POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS. SO, WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOLOMON 
ISLANDS SHOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 
25P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
GFDN, AVN, AFWA MM5, THE BOM TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET GRID POINT, ALL 
INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND AND A DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. NOGAPS, 
HOWEVER, KEEPS THE SYSTEM COUPLED IN THE MID-LEVEL AND TRACKS THE 
SYSTEM DEEPER AND FASTER INTO THE SUBTROPICS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED 
ON A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
261800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2, 270900Z8, 271500Z5 
AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020527 03:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- NEAR 9.0S9 153.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S9 153.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 9.4S3 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 9.9S8 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 10.2S3 154.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 10.6S7 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 11.7S9 155.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS 
REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. LITTLE, IF ANY, 
MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED FOR OVER 9 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS 
BASED ON 262330Z6 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 35 KNOTS. THE 262030Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGE DEPICTED A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 40 NM NORTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. HOWEVER, RECENT IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE 
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CENTER. A RELATIVELY 
WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOLOMON ISLANDS SHOULD 
INFLUENCE THE TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 25P IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AVN, AFWA 
MM5, THE BOM TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET GRID POINT, ALL INDICATE A 
WEAKENING TREND AND A DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. NOGAPS, AND THE NEW GFDN 
18Z9 RUN, HOWEVER, KEEP THE SYSTEM COUPLED IN THE MID-LEVEL AND 
TRACK THE SYSTEM DEEPER AND FASTER INTO THE SUBTROPICS. OUR FORECAST 
IS BASED ON A WEAKENING/DISSIPATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8, 271500Z5, 
272100Z2 AND 280300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020527 09:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 8.8S6 153.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 153.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 9.0S9 154.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 9.4S3 154.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 9.8S7 154.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 10.3S4 154.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 11.6S8 155.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 153.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS 
DRIFTED NORTH AT 02 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTED A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION 
APPROXIMATELY 65 NM TO THE SOUTH. A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL 
RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS SHOULD INFLUENCE THE 
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NOGAPS, AVN, AFWA MM5, THE BOM 
TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET GRID POINT MODELS, ALL INDICATE A WEAKENING 
TREND AND A DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. GFDN, HOWEVER, KEEPS THE SYSTEM 
COUPLED IN THE MID-LEVEL AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM FASTER INTO THE 
SUBTROPICS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A 
WEAKENING/DISSIPATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5, 272100Z2, 280300Z3 
AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 009 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020527 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 8.7S5 153.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 153.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 9.0S9 153.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 9.8S7 154.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 10.5S6 154.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 11.3S5 155.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 153.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS
REMAINED STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM AND BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLIES. A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
THE SOLOMON ISLANDS WILL INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM=S TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOGAPS, AVN, AFWA MM5, THE BOM
TCLAPS, AND THE UKMET GRID POINT MODELS, ALL INDICATE A WEAKENING
TREND AND A DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. GFDN, HOWEVER, KEEPS THE SYSTEM
COUPLED IN THE MID-LEVEL AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM FASTER INTO THE
SUBTROPICS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A
WEAKENING/DISSIPATION TREND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3, 280900Z9, 281500Z6
AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020528 03:00z    
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 9.2S1 154.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 154.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 9.7S6 154.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 10.3S4 154.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 11.0S2 154.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z3 --- 11.6S8 155.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 154.0E0. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS 
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTH OF NEW DEEP CONVECTION WHICH 
HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS WILL INFLUENCE THE 
SYSTEM'S TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALL MODELS 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVN INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AND A 
TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE 
SUBTROPICS. AVN RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM WHILE REMAINING QUASI-
STATIONARY. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL 
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
280000Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9, 281500Z6, 282100Z3 
AND 290300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20020528 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (UPIA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 9.8S7 154.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 154.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 10.5S6 154.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 154.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (UPIA), LOCATED OVER THE SOLOMON SEA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING WINDS OF 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 25P IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_upia_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017