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Tropical Cyclone HARY : JTWC Advisories
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone HARY Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20020305 16:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S1 66.7E9 TO 13.2S6 62.2E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 65.7E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S4
66.5E7, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S8 65.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS INDICATES A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. A 051414Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS ALSO
REVEALS IMPROVED SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. 200MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA
IS UNDER WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061630Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020306 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051621Z MAR 02//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 11.2S4 64.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 64.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 11.2S4 63.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 11.1S3 61.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 11.5S7 59.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.1S4 57.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 64.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHEAST
OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061711Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
TC 18S IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WEST TO A POSITION SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z6 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 051621Z MAR 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 051630) NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020306 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 62.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 62.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 11.8S0 60.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 58.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.3S6 56.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 12.7S0 54.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 61.7E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, THEREFORE TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (GFDN,
AVN, NOGAPS AND EGRR) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020307 03:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 11.7S9 59.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 59.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 57.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.4S7 54.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 12.9S2 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.9S3 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 16.5S2 50.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 062300Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED
WRAPPING DEEP CONVECTION ENCOMPASSING A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 18S WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
GUIDED BY THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER THIS TIME
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENABLING A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED THE
DATE FOR MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FROM 170000Z8 TO
070000Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020307 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 11.3S5 57.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 57.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 11.2S4 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 11.8S0 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 13.2S6 52.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 15.0S6 51.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 18.2S1 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.3S5 56.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTED A DEVELOPING EYE AND THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW
IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND
CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THIS WEAKNESS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF ECMWF, GFDN, AVN,
NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020308 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- NEAR 11.3S5 53.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S5 53.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 12.0S3 52.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 13.0S4 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.5S0 50.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.3S0 50.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.0S2 49.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 53.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
EAST OF CAPE AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING COVERAGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
UPPER LEVELS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 18S IS
SITUATED ON THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THEN
TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND REORIENTS
THE STEERING FLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS COMPRISE GFDN, AVN,
NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020309 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 52.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 52.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 12.6S9 52.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 51.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.2S9 50.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.2S1 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 52.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
2 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 24 NM EYE. TC 18S IS
AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HAS BEGUN TO
MAKE A POLEWARD TURN TOWARDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM=S TRACK SPEED HAS SLOWED BUT IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ONCE THE POLEWARD TURN IS COMPLETE. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS ITS WESTERN HALF INTERACTS WITH
MADAGASCAR=S EAST COAST AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST PASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH, LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OF
THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS COMPRISE GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS
AND UK MET GLOBAL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020309 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 12.9S2 51.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 51.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 51.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.2S9 51.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.3S2 51.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.5S7 51.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7  51.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25 NM EYE WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. TC 18S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC
18S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH MADAGASCAR=S
EAST COAST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET
GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND 101500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020310 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 14.7S2 50.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 50.7E2
    ---

   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 16.8S5 50.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.9S8 50.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.8S0 50.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 23.2S7 51.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 50.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE D=AMBRE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 23 NM EYE. TC 18S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND A TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S WILL CHANGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR=S EAST COAST AND IT=S PASSAGE SOUTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020310 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 010    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.1S8 50.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 50.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 18.1S0 50.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.2S4 50.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 22.4S8 50.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 24.4S0 51.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 50.3E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM 
SOUTH OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 7 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT TC 18S MADE LANDFALL 
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR (STATION 
ID 67025) AT 101200Z4 WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
OF 140 KNOTS. TC 18S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH TO THE WEST, WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST 
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. AS A 
RESULT, TC 18S SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MIDWAY THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. TC 18S HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS 
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER OPEN WATER AND 
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020311 03:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 18.0S9 50.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 50.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 20.1S3 50.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 22.4S8 51.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 24.6S2 53.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 27.1S0 54.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 50.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAHAVELONA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
102330Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 18S HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN MADAGASCAR COAST AND HAS WEAKENED DUE TO
PROLONGED INTERACTION WITH LAND. TC 18S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE STORM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, TC 18S SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MIDWAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TC 18S NO LONGER HAS A DISCERNABLE EYE BUT STILL SHOWS
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER
EAST OF MADAGASCAR, SHORT TERM REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
MID-PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z2 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020311 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 012    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 20.8S0 51.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 51.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 23.4S9 52.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 26.0S8 54.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 28.5S5 55.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 31.1S5 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 90 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8  51.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
WEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
111130Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 115 KNOTS. 
A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS AND ANIMATED 
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT TC 18S HAS AN EYE 
FEATURE WITH A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST. TC 18S 
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE 
TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND CREATE NORTHWESTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AS SYNOPTIC SITUATION DOES NOT CHANGE. AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER OPEN WATER, IT SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY 
THROUGH MID-PERIOD. THEREAFTER, SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE 
SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020312 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 23.5S0 53.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 53.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 25.8S5 55.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 28.1S1 56.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 30.3S6 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 32.5S0 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A
112314Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS REVEALS A
PARTIAL EYEWALL AND A LARGE BANDING FEATURE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 18S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE EVIDENT
IN THE LATEST IMAGERY AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 18S AFTER
A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF GFDN, AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z3 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020312 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 26.4S2 54.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 54.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 28.9S9 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 31.1S5 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 32.8S3 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 34.1S8 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 55.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121100Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
RESIDES TO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EXTENT HAS
REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. TC 18S CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. TC 18S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN,
AVN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 AND 131500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020312 21:00z AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 015 AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 27.3S2 55.4E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 55.4E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 29.4S5 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 31.1S5 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 55.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKENING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. REANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE MID-POINT OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT:
ADJUSTED FORECAST INTENSITIES AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020313 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 28.3S3 55.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S3 55.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 29.9S0 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 31.4S8 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 28.7S7 56.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTION AND SHEARING BY NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN, NOGAPS, AVN, AND UK MET GLOBAL ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130000Z4 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020313 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (HARY) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 29.5S6 56.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S6 56.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 30.3S6 57.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 57.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (HARY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH
OF LA REUNION ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 30 NM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND UK MET GLOBAL, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 24
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_hary_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017