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Tropical Cyclone GUILLAUME : JTWC Advisories
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone GUILLAUME Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20020215 01:00z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 17.8S6 52.2E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 142330Z3 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2S1 .7E0  IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 18.1S0 50.5E0, JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING
ORGANIZATION OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS IN A REGION OF
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160100Z8.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020215 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8S4 51.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 51.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.0S6 52.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.2S7 53.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.8S2 54.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.1S6 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 52.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BANDING FEATURE FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN IN AN EASTWARD DIRECTION
BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 150051Z FEB 02 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 150100). NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020216 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.0S6 52.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 52.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 14.4S9 54.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 14.2S7 55.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 14.6S1 56.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 15.4S0 57.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 53.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM OFF THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. TC 15S HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
NOW DEPICTS THE BANDING FEATURE NOW EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 15S SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES GOVERNED
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND 170900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020216 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.3S8 54.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 54.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.3S8 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 15.0S6 56.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 15.9S5 57.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 16.7S4 58.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 54.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE AND A PRIMARY BAND
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE DEVELOPS. TC 15S IS TRACKING
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ON BOTH SIDES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEFORE RESUMING CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT BY THE 24 HOUR POINT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND ARE SUPPORTED BY THE BAROTROPIC ADVECTION MODELS. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND
172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020217 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.5S0 56.3E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 56.3E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 15.1S7 57.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.5S2 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.6S5 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 21.6S9 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 56.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170515Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 15S HAS DEVELOPED A 09 NM EYE AND HAS A WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HAS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z4 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 AND 180900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020217 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 15.5S1 58.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 58.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 16.8S5 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 18.3S2 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 21.1S4 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 58.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND
EGRR SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE
RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE PRINCIPLE DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE THE
STRENGTH OF INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020218 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 16.7S4 59.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 59.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.1S0 59.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 19.7S7 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 21.3S6 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 23.2S7 60.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 59.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 180515Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A 10 NM ELONGATED EYE SURROUNDED BY 55 NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S
REMAINS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AFTER 24
HOURS. THEREFORE TC 15S SHOULD BE AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS, WITH AVN AND EGRR
SHOWING A SLOWER TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND NOGAPS AND
GFDN TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
DIFFERENTIATING FACTOR IN THE MODELS IS THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION
WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020218 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 18.2S1 59.6E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 59.6E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.5S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.8S0 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 22.1S5 59.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 23.6S1 59.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 59.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 181751Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A 181650Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE
(SSMI) PASS INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 12 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND WEAKEN
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND
SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKER SYSTEM,
TRACKING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS, HEDGING
TOWARDS THE SECOND SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- NEAR 19.0S0 59.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 59.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 20.2S4 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.6S9 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 23.1S6 59.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.7S3 59.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 59.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15S HAS A 13 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH DECREASING DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW
AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ITS INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
ON FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL
THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT
190000Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9, 191500Z6, 192100Z3
AND 200300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 009 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- NEAR 20.1S3 59.0E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S3 59.0E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 21.5S8 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 22.9S3 58.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 24.6S2 59.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 26.1S9 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.4S6   58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S MAINTAINS A 10 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH
DECREASING CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH
DIFLUENT FLOW AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON FORECAST
TRACK AND SPEED. GFDN INDICATES A STRONG SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, TRACKING TC 15S MORE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC TROUGH. ALL THE
OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM, TRACKING IT SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z3 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3, 200300Z5, 200900Z1
AND 201500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020219 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 20.6S8 58.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 58.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 21.6S9 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 22.7S1 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 24.3S9 58.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 25.8S5 59.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
15S HAS A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST
CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020220 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 21.0S3 58.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 58.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 22.0S4 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 23.0S5 58.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 24.3S9 59.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 25.7S4 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 58.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 TO 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS A 24 NM EYE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE, TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING THE UK MET GLOBAL
(EGRR), NGPS, AND GFDN MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO SLOW AND FAST
CLUSTERS, WITH GFDN HAVING THE GREATEST TRANSLATION SPEED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. ALL THE OTHER MODELS REFLECT A WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD BIAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8, 202100Z5, 210300Z6 AND 210900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020220 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 013    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 22.4S8 59.9E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 59.9E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 24.1S7 61.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 25.6S3 62.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 27.6S5 65.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 29.3S4 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 60.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED 
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 102 TO 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT TC 15S WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES ENCROACHED ON THE UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD INCREASING VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. TC 15S 
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND APPROACHING MID-LAT TROUGH. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, 
AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE 
SOLUTION DISCUSSED ABOVE. FIELD ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GFDN MAY BE 
EXCESSIVELY INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LAT TROUGH AND THE UKMET OFFICE 
MODEL IS UNDER-FORECASTING THE INTERACTION. BASED ON THE HIGH 
PROBABILITY OF COMPENSATING ERROR MECHANISMS, OUR FORECAST IS BASED 
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020221 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 24.1S7 60.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 60.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 26.3S1 62.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 28.8S8 64.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 30.4S7 67.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 32.1S6 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 24.6S2 60.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 75, 90, AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
AS MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 24
HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN)
MODELS. THE AIDS AGREE IN DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN TERMS OF
SPEED. THE PRINCIPLE DIFFERENCE IN THE AIDS IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE RIDGE. AVN AND EGRR INDICATE THE
RIDGE IS STRONG AND WILL ACT TO IMPEDE TC 15S FROM PROGRESSING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. GFDN AND NGPS SUGGEST THAT RIDGE IS WEAK AND AS A
RESULT HAVE TC 15S TRACKING FASTER DOWNSTREAM. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND 220900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020221 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 015    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 26.2S0 62.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S0 62.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 27.9S8 64.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 29.5S6 66.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 31.2S6 69.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 32.8S3 73.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 26.6S4 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED 
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 65 KNOTS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS 
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-PERIOD UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEGUN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
HAVE COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST 
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), 
NGPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE SAME 
TRACK DIRECTION FOR TC 15S, BUT DIVERGE IN THEIR FORECAST SPEEDS 
WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE NGPS AND EGRR MODELS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020222 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 26.1S9 62.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S9 62.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 26.6S4 63.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 27.1S0 65.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 26.2S0 62.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 220530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NGPS, GFDN,
AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE MODELS AGREE IN TRACK DIRECTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TC 15S, BUT DIFFER IN FORECAST
SPEED, WITH GFDN REMAINING THE FASTEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS MINUS
GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNING IS AT 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020222 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GUILLAUME) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z3 --- NEAR 26.4S2 64.0E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S2 64.0E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 26.8S6 65.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 26.5S3 64.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GUILLAUME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TC 15S HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TC 15S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
A WEAKNESS OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_guillaume_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017