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Tropical Cyclone FRANCESCA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone FRANCESCA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20020201 02:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 88.2E8 TO 13.5S9 84.2E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 312330Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 88.0E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 89.9E6 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S7 88.0E6 APPROXIMATELY 960 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311145Z QUIKSCAT
PASS OVER THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN A REGION OF WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DECAY THE WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
RELAX ALLOWING FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION WITH THE
SURFACE CENTER. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020130Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020201 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 13.5S9 85.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 85.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 13.5S9 83.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 13.5S9 82.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 13.5S9 80.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 13.6S0 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 84.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
011730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12S WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT DIFFER
IN SPEED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL
THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS
11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
010151Z FEB 02 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
010200. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 AND 022100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020202 09:00z AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 14.2S7 81.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 81.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 14.3S8 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 14.4S9 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 14.5S0 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 14.7S2 78.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 81.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WAS BUILDING OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO SLOW TC 12S AND STEER
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN,
AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. THE FORECAST WAS AMENDED BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE
AND ANALYSIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FEATURE INFLUENCING THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020202 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 14.1S6 80.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 80.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.3S8 79.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.5S0 78.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 14.9S4 77.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 77.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 80.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. TC 12S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND MOVE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTED BY
STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS
MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AND DEVELOP
A PERIPHERY RIDGE AND SUGGEST CONTINUED CHANGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK
AFTER 36 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020203 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 14.5S0 79.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 79.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 14.8S3 78.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.0S6 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.6S2 78.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.9S5 78.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 79.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE FORMING AN EYE. TC 12S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND MOVE POLEWARD AS A
PERIPHERAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF THE UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS EGRR, WHICH
TRACKS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD BEFORE SHOWING A TURN POLEWARD.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 AND 040900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020203 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.8S3 78.2E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 78.2E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 15.4S0 77.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 16.0S7 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 16.4S1 76.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.7S4 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 78.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED IN
INTENSIFYING. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM RESIDES NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE PERIPHERY RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE UK MET
GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TCLAPS AND TLAPS MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. ONE
CLUSTER OF AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, DEVELOP THE
PERIPHERY RIDGE AND MOVE THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
OTHER AIDS, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND EGRR, MOVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS MINUS NOGAPS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z3 AND 042100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020204 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 14.9S4 77.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 77.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 15.1S7 77.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 77.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.1S8 77.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.5S2 78.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 77.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND A BANDING FEATURE
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A CYCLONE
ALOFT AND GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND AVIATION
(AVN) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR) IS AN
OUTLIER. EGRR, THE OUTLIER, CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WESTWARD BIAS.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND BLENDS ALL DYNAMIC MODELS
TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040600Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020204 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 15.5S1 78.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 78.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 15.7S3 78.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.6S3 81.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.2S0 82.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 78.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A 041623Z6 
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEVELOPED 
EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM 
CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 40-NM IRREGULAR EYE 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH 
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION (AVN), AND UK-MET 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND BLENDS ALL DYNAMIC MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR 
COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020205 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 16.1S8 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.4S1 79.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 16.8S5 79.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 17.3S1 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.0S9 81.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 78.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A
RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A WELL-
DEVELOPED EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS,
AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR
COMPENSATING ERRORS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020205 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 009    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 16.8S5 79.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 79.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 17.1S9 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.6S4 80.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM 
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 18.4S3 81.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 81.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 79.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT 
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS FILLED. 200MB ANALYSIS 
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 12S IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), 
GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. 
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC 
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  13S 
(CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020206 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 17.4S2 79.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 79.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 18.0S9 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 18.5S4 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 81.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.9S9 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 80.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80
AND 102 KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 200MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH DIFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND UK-MET GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
ALL DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020206 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 17.8S6 80.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 80.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 18.5S4 81.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 19.2S2 82.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 20.1S3 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 21.2S5 83.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9  81.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN 
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. 200MB ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 12S IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. TC 12S 
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY 
FLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION 
(AVN), GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, AND UK-MET GLOBAL. OUR FORECAST IS BASED 
ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (CHRIS) 
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020207 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 82.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 82.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.5S4 82.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.1S1 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.9S9 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 82.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 12S HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD IN THE SHORT
TERM BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TC 12S SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSIST OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020207 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 013    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 18.7S6 83.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 83.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 19.7S7 83.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 20.9S1 84.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 22.1S5 84.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 23.5S0 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT    
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 83.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN 
OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 12S HAS A RAGGED 30 NM EYE AND HAS SLIGHTLY 
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS IT PASSED UNDER THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING 
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO 
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. A PASSING EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AIDING A CONTINUED 
SOUTHEAST TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12S SHOULD SLOWLY 
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, UK-MET 
GLOBAL, BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF 
ALL DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020208 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 19.7S7 83.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 83.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.5S7 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.5S8 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.4S8 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.4S9 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 83.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
TC 12S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, UK-MET GLOBAL,
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020208 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 20.3S5 84.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 84.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.0S3 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.9S2 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.9S3 83.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.0S6 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 20.5S7 84.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GFDN, UK-MET GLOBAL, BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY TLAPS AND TCLAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020209 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 21.6S9 84.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 84.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.5S9 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.3S8 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.5S2 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 84.8E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18-NM
CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020209 21:00z
 IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 22.1S5 84.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 84.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.2S7 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.5S2 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.6S4 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8   84.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020210 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 23.0S5 85.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 85.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.4S0 84.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.8S5 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.8S7 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 29.8S9 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 85.0E3
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WEAKENING BANDING EYE FEATURE. A 100334Z1 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS CONTINUED EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DISPLACED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR AND
TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND
110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020210 21:00Z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 23.5S0 85.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 85.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 24.7S3 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.5S3 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 28.4S4 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 30.2S5 83.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 85.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASINGLY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD BETWEEN
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 12S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASINGLY
STRONGER SHEAR AND TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
MODELS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020211 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 25.3S0 85.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 85.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.2S1 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 29.1S2 84.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 31.2S6 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 33.2S8 82.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.8S5 85.7E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-
EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 12S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE 12-HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND UK-MET GLOBAL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE
NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND
120900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20020211 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FRANCESCA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 26.7S5 86.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S5 86.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 27.9S8 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 27.0S9 86.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FRANCESCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1000 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLAND IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES SHEARING THE SYSTEM. TC
12S HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND MAY REDEVELOP AS A
MID-LATITUDE LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 18
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_francesca_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017