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Tropical Cyclone ALEX-ANDRE : JTWC Advisories
Season 2001-2002 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ALEX-ANDRE Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20011025 16:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4S1 96.0E5 TO 10.4S5 91.1E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251530Z6 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 7.5S2 95.7E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S9 96.4E9 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 7.5S4 95.7E1, SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC.
A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THAT
THE CONVECTION IS ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS BELOW WEAK
NORTHERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261630Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011026 09:00z
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251621Z OCT 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 8.2S0 94.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 94.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 8.4S2 93.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 8.6S4 92.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 8.9S7 91.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 9.1S0 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 8.2S0 94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
4 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
260530Z6 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A
WELL-DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. TC 02S IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER RIDGE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF UK MET OFFICE
(EGRR) AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. WIND
RADII FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 18 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251621Z7 OCT 01
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251630). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011026 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 8.1S9 93.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S9 93.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 8.2S0 91.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 8.3S1 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 8.5S3 89.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 8.7S5 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 8.1S9 92.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
261730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING
OF UK MET OFFICE (EGRR) AND NOGAPS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011027 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270600Z5 --- NEAR 7.6S3 92.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6S3 92.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 7.9S6 90.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 8.2S0 88.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 8.5S3 87.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 8.8S6 85.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 9.0S9 82.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 7.7S4 91.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF UK MET OFFICE
GLOBAL, NOGAPS, AVN AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 08 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011027 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z8 --- NEAR 7.6S3 90.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6S3 90.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 7.7S4 88.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 8.1S9 87.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 8.4S2 85.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 8.8S6 83.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.6S3 90.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS
BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING
OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011028 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280600Z6 --- NEAR 8.1S9 89.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S9 89.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z9 --- 8.5S3 87.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 9.0S9 86.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 9.2S1 84.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 9.3S2 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR  8.2S0  88.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. 200
MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND
GFDN ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011028 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z9 --- NEAR 8.7S5 87.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S5 87.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z7 --- 9.2S1 86.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 9.5S4 85.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 9.7S6 83.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 10.0S1 81.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 8.8S6 87.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 2817300Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PULSING DEEP CONVECTION AND
SHEARING OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. TC
02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 AND
292100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011029 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z7 --- NEAR 8.9S7 85.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 85.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z0 --- 9.5S4 83.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 10.1S2 81.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 10.7S8 79.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 11.1S3 78.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.1S0 84.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 INFRARED
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS
TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 02S IN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
GLOBAL, AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290600Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 AND 300900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011029 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z0 --- NEAR 9.0S9 83.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.0S9 83.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z9 --- 9.2S1 81.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 9.4S3 79.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 9.9S8 78.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 10.4S5 76.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.0S9 82.9E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES
TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR AND TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND
GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z0 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 AND 302100Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011030 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   300600Z9 --- NEAR 7.5S2 83.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S2 83.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z2 --- 7.5S2 81.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 7.7S4 80.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 8.0S8 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 8.8S6 77.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 10.8S9 75.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR  7.5S2   82.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN RELOCATED DUE TO RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 300530Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES
TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR AND TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND
GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9, 302100Z6, 310300Z7
AND 310900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011030 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z6 --- NEAR 7.5S2 82.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S2 82.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310000Z4 --- 7.7S4 81.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 8.0S8 80.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 8.7S5 79.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 9.8S7 78.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 11.9S1 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 7.5S2 82.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 3 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY
SHEAR AND TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6, 310300Z7, 310900Z3 AND 311500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011030 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301800Z2 --- NEAR 6.3S9 83.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S9 83.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z0 --- 7.0S7 83.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 7.8S5 82.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 8.6S4 81.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 9.6S5 80.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 11.6S8 78.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 6.5S1 83.4E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301730Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CONVECTION IS SHEARED WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS
SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011031 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310000Z4 --- NEAR 6.8S4 82.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S4 82.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311200Z7 --- 7.9S6 81.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 9.0S9 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 9.9S8 79.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 10.8S9 78.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 12.7S0 76.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 7.1S8 82.4E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER BROAD CIRCULATION
AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SHEARED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 200
MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL, AND
GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011031 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   310600Z0 --- NEAR 7.7S4 81.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S4 81.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z3 --- 8.7S5 80.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 9.8S7 79.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 10.8S9 78.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 12.0S3 77.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 14.4S9 76.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 8.0S8 81.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 310530Z2 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER BROAD
CIRCULATION AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SHEARED EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST. TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, AND GFDN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0, 312100Z7, 010300Z4
AND 010900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011031 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311200Z7 --- NEAR 8.6S4 81.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 81.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 10.3S4 79.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 11.8S0 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 13.0S4 77.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.3S8 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 16.6S3 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 9.0S9 80.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311230Z0 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER BROAD
CIRCULATION AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS SHEARED EAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02S IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST. TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS AND GFDN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE
AND THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
311200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7, 010300Z4, 010900Z0
AND 011500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20011031 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (ALEX-ANDRE) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   311800Z3 --- NEAR 9.5S4 80.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S4 80.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z7 --- 10.6S7 78.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.8S7 79.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (ALEX-ANDRE), LOCATED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN, HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311730Z5 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BROADENED AND BECOME DISORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS
SHEARED UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_alex-andre_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017