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Tropical Cyclone EVARISTE : JTWC Advisories
Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone EVARISTE Track Map and Data

WTXS33 PGTW 20010403 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 10.4S5 62.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 62.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 10.9S0 61.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 11.5S7 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 11.9S1 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 12.4S7 59.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.5S6 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 4 KTS IN THE PAST
6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. 24 HOUR ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT DATA
CLEARLY INDICATES A COMPACTING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND DRIFT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2
IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 022121Z APR 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS24 PGTW 022130). NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010404 09:00z    
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 002    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 11.9S1 63.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 63.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 12.6S9 64.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 13.2S6 63.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 13.7S1 63.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 14.0S5 62.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 63.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 12 KTS IN THE 
PAST 6 HOURS AND IS APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. 
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 040530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS CYCLED OVER THE LLCC. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THEN TURN SOUTHWEST UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES 
TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS 
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  
17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010404 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 12.9S2 62.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 62.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 14.1S6 61.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 15.3S9 60.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.5S2 59.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.6S4 59.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 62.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 041730Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ENHANCED ANIMATION
AND A 041625Z8 SSM/I PASS DEPICT A SUDDEN BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. THIS
MORNINGS 200 MB ANAL REVEALED THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS
SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OF A
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 AND
052100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010405 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 13.8S2 61.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 61.5E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 14.9S4 60.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.3S0 59.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.9S7 58.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 58.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 61.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN
EYE, WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
REVEALED THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WAS SITUATED OVER THE
SYSTEM. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010405 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 14.9S4 61.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 61.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 16.4S1 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.9S7 60.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 20.1S3 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.3S7 60.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.3S9 61.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A
051710Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I 85 GHZ) DEPICTED A
PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER
MADAGASCAR HAS ENHANCED THE OUTFLOW OF TC 18S. HENCE, THE
INTENSIFICATION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD. LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEFORE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDES BEGINS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010406 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 16.2S9 61.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 61.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 17.8S6 61.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 19.9S9 61.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.6S0 61.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 25.9S6 62.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 61.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 060528Z1 TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. THE TRMM
IMAGE DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH INCREASING SPEED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEFORE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES BEGINS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 AND
070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010406 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 17.3S1 60.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 60.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 19.8S8 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 22.4S8 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 25.1S8 61.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 28.3S3 62.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 60.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. TC 18S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH INCREASING SPEED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT BEGINS BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19P (SOSE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010407 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 62.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 62.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 23.9S4 63.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 26.6S4 65.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 29.9S0 67.9E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 34.1S8 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 62.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
27 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. THE
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 18S HAS ACCELERATED IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 070416Z8
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS SHOWED WEAKENING
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INDICATIONS OF EYEWALL
EROSION. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING
SPEED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010407 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 009
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 23.0S5 61.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 61.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 26.4S2 60.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 29.9S0 60.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 32.5S0 60.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 61.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
19 KTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 18S HAS DECOUPLED IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080300Z1 REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010408 00:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 010
      02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      071800Z6 --- NEAR 23.1S6 60.4E0
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
      REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 60.4E0
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      080600Z4 --- 23.0S5 58.3E6
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      081800Z7 --- 25.3S0 56.4E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 24 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      090600Z5 --- 29.4S5 59.2E6
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
      DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 59.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
12 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 18S HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CENTER IS LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING GENERATED BY A WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TC 18S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER AND MERGE WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGED THE NEXT WARNING TIMES TO REFLECT
SIX-HOURLY WARNINGS RATHER THAN TWELVE-HOURLY.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010408 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- NEAR 22.9S3 60.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 60.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 22.9S3 59.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 24.3S9 58.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 28.5S5 59.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 60.4E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 40 KTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 18S IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING GENERATED
BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 12 HOURS TC 18S
WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO
MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. TC 18S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER AND MERGE WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 091500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (WALTER)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20010408 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EVARISTE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 24.3S9 61.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S9 61.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 26.9S7 62.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 31.0S4 64.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 61.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EVARISTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 18 KTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 18S
REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED AND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG WAVE FEATURE TO THE WEST THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LAT LOW WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC
18S. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT RE-
INTENSIFIES AS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080600Z4 IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (WALTER) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_evariste_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017