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Tropical Cyclone DERA : JTWC Advisories
Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone DERA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20010308 10:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S4 40.6E0 TO 20.9S1 39.1E3
WITHIN THE NEXT 08 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080716Z2 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NE
AR 16.6S3 40.4E8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010309 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090000Z9 --- NEAR 18.4S3 40.1E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 40.1E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.4S4 40.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 19.9S9 40.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 20.4S6 40.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 20.9S1 39.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 40.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF
EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. A 082100Z1 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (37 GHZ) PASS
DEPICTED THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO
THE EAST SEMI-CIRCLE. ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION REVEALS DEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. POLEWARD ORIENTED LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE FORWARD MOTION OF TC 15S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 15S SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080951Z MAR 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 081000) NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND
100300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010309 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- NEAR 20.9S1 40.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 40.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 22.2S6 40.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 23.3S8 40.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 24.5S1 40.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 25.7S4 40.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 40.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE EARLY STAGES OF A DEVELOPING EYE CLEARLY EVIDENT. IMAGERY
FURTHER DEPICTS A GOOD BANDING FEATURE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM EUROPA ISLAND (WMO NO. 61972) INDICATE 30-KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS. UPPER AIR REPORTS FROM EUROPA
ISLAND AT 2000 FEET INDICATE 40-KNOT WINDS. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, AND ACCOUNTS FOR THE
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. POLEWARD ORIENTED MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE
FORWARD MOTION OF TC 15S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 15S
SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND
101500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010310 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 22.8S2 40.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 40.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 24.4S0 40.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 26.0S8 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 28.2S2 41.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 30.4S7 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
092330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT PULSING CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER AND A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN
THE RIDGE, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT MOVES
POLEWARD AND BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM
EUROPA ISLAND (WMO NO. 61972) INDICATED LIGHTER WINDS BUT A
CONTINUED PRESSURE DROP AS THE SYSTEM PASSED BARELY TO THE EAST
AROUND 092100Z2. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KNOTS. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, INITIALLY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, THEN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE WEAKENING UNDER INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST,
AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND
110300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010310 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 24.4S0 40.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S0 40.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 26.2S0 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 28.0S0 41.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 31.2S6 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 34.9S6 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 40.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE, RAGGED EYE.
HOWEVER, IMAGERY HAS BEGUN TO SHOW INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
UNDER SHEAR ON THE NORTH SIDE AND IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. SPECIFICALLY, DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A DRY SLOT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
EAST OF THE EYE. A 100601Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS
DEPICTED A 30-NM RAGGED EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE EAST WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS TRACKING WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15S SHOULD INCREASE
SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTH
AFRICA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND SHOULD
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010311 03:00z 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 005A  
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 26.0S8 40.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 40.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 28.0S0 41.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT    
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 30.4S7 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 34.0S7 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 38.1S2 47.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 26.5S3 40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH 
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS EYE. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE WALL HAS BEGUN TO ERODE. 
TC 15S IS TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. TC 15S SHOULD INCREASE SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES 
EXTRATROPICAL BY 120000Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
110000Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010311 15:00z 
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 27.3S2 40.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.3S2 40.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 29.4S5 40.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 34.7S4 43.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 41.1S6 49.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 40.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC 
REPORTS. AN 110545Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS  
REVEALED MINIMAL CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND EYEWALL 
EROSION. MORE RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING EYE FEATURE. TC 15S IS 
TRACKING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST 
TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH REFLECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS 
IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY 121200Z6. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 
121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010312 03:00z    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 007    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 29.3S4 41.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S4 41.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 33.1S7 42.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 38.6S7 47.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 30.2S5 41.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF TOLANARO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS, RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM. 
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME REINTENSIFICATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE WALL, BUT RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE EYEWALL IS ERODING ONCE AGAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT FINISHES ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS 
PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010312 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 34.5S2 43.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 33 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE       
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.5S2 43.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 40.5S9 47.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 51 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 49.6S9 54.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 36.0S9  44.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 33 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
121130Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 
KNOTS AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 6 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AN 110324Z1 
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED EYEWALL 
EROSION. AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWING 
INCREASING INFLUENCE ON TC 15S. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE IN 
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT 130300Z7 .//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20010313 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DERA) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 42.2S8 50.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 54 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 42.2S8 50.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 48.0S2 57.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 43.6S3 52.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (DERA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AT 54
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
122330Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION POLEWARD OF THE
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. A DISTINCT
FRONTAL SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITH OPEN-CELL, COLD-AIR CUMULUS NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE 250MB STREAMLINE/ISOTACH ANAL DEPICTS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF TC 15S WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POLAR JET, OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_dera_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017