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Tropical Cyclone 200101 : JTWC Advisories
Season 2000-2001 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone 200101 Track Map and Data

WTXS31 PGTW 20000801 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 6.3S9 77.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.3S9 77.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 6.7S3 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 6.9S5 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 7.2S9 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 7.6S3 72.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 8.7S5 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 6.4S0 77.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF THE FULLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011313Z9 QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS HAD EARLIER INDICATED 20-30 KTS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS HAD INDICATED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE EXPOSED LLCC, BUT THE RECENT
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. RECENT SYNOPTIC REPORTS
FROM DIEGO GARCIA HAVE INDICATED INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
(SUSTAINED) NEAR 20 KNOTS. TC 01S SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE 200 MB
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL
HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z0 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9), 020900Z1 (DTG
020751Z5), 021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000802 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 6.4S0 76.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.4S0 76.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 6.7S3 75.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 7.0S7 74.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 7.5S2 73.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 7.9S6 71.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 9.5S4 69.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 6.5S1 76.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE 200 MB
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL
HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z2 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020751Z5), 021500Z8 (DTG
021351Z2), 022100Z5 (DTG 021951Z8) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0).// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000802 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 5.9S4 77.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S4 77.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 6.0S6 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 6.3S9 76.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 6.9S5 74.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 7.5S2 73.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 8.8S6 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 5.9S4 77.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 020530Z0 INFRARED AND 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA NEAR 30.4S7 
101.0E IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 
AN APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 01S SHOULD 
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING 
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 
01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, 
BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE 200 MB SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE 
AXIS UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL HINDER FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT  020600Z8 IS 08 
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021952Z9) AND 030900Z2 (DTG 
030752Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000802 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 5.9S4 76.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S4 76.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 6.3S9 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 6.9S5 75.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 7.4S1 74.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 7.9S6 73.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 9.1S0 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 6.0S6 76.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM NORTHEAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED AND 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE EAST OF 
THE CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA NEAR 30.4S7 101.0E 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN 
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. TC 01S SHOULD TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER AN IMPROVED 
ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TOWARD THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 10 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021952Z9), 030300Z6 (DTG 030152Z1), 
030900Z2 (DTG 030752Z7) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031352Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000802 21:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 6.2S8 76.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S8 76.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 7.0S7 75.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 7.7S4 75.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 8.3S1 74.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 8.9S7 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 9.7S6 71.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR  6.4S0 76.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO 
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE SYSTEM IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS 
WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 
HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THIS PERIOD THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE 
TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY 
UNDER AN IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE 
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG 030751Z6) AND 032100Z6 
(DTG 031951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000803 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 7.2S9 75.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S9 75.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 8.6S4 74.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 9.6S5 73.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.2S3 73.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 10.6S7 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 11.0S2 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 7.6S3 75.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS VERY DIFFICULT
TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY. RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 022330Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE LLCC IS
DISPLACED THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 01S
IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN
THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THIS PERIOD THE
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040151Z1).// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000803 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 8.1S9 75.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S9 75.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 9.3S2 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 10.2S3 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 10.4S5 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 10.5S6 68.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 10.7S8 64.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 8.4S2 74.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 030530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 140 NM
FROM THE APPARENT LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING
RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE 12 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THIS PERIOD THE RIDGE MOVING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AND
REMAIN WEAK IN A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG
031352Z4), 032100Z6 (DTG 031952Z0), 040300Z7 (DTG 040152Z2) AND
040900Z3 (DTG 040752Z8).// 
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000803 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 8.9S7 74.1E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S7 74.1E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 9.9S8 72.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.7S8 70.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR  9.2S1 73.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAN NOT BE FOUND
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
FROM A PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER POSITION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM NEARBY SYNOPTIC REPORTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE AN
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 15
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// 

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_200101_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 2 May 2017