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Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN : JTWC Advisories
Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone VAUGHAN Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20000402 19:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 021921Z APR 00//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S4 161.4E2 TO 13.0S4
153.4E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 021730Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 160.3E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CONVECTION NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS SMALL (90
NM) IN AREAL EXTENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 031930Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000403 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 14.4S9 159.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 159.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 13.0S4 157.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 12.8S1 155.7E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 12.9S2 153.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 13.3S7 151.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 159.0E5.
THE SUSPECT AREA WHICH WAS UNDER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 021930), WEST OF VANUATU, HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 23P. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P, SITUATED ABOUT 820 NM EAST OF THE
QUEENSLAND COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM IN AREAL COVERAGE) SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES MOVING IN TOWARD THE CENTER
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE INDICATIVE OF IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INITIALLY, NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS EQUATORWARD OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND TO NEW ZEALAND. TC 23P SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 12 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 021921Z APR 00
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 021930) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  22P (TESSI), (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000403 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 14.2S7 157.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 157.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 13.8S2 155.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.9S3 153.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 14.2S7 151.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 14.7S2 148.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 156.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P, SITUATED ABOUT 688 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TWO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
23P HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 031058Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I)
PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED
SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 23P HAS TRACKED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND SHOULD
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3) AND
041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000404 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 13.6S0 155.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 155.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 13.4S8 152.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 13.5S9 150.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 14.1S6 148.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 14.7S2 146.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 154.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
032330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC
23P (VAUGHAN) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAKE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE MOVES TO
THE EAST. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000404 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 13.2S6 152.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 152.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 13.4S8 150.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 13.9S3 148.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 14.2S7 147.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.4S9 146.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 151.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DISCOVERY BAY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 23P (VAUGHAN)
HAD PREVIOUSLY WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT HAS RESUMED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY, THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN MORE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG
050153Z4) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000405 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 005
      02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
        ---
      WARNING POSITION:
      050000Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 151.0E7
          MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
          POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
          POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
      PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                                        040 NM
ELSEWHERE
      REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 151.0E7
        ---
      FORECASTS:
      12 HRS, VALID AT:
      051200Z8 --- 14.5S0 149.1E5
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                                        045 NM
ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
      24 HRS, VALID AT:
      060000Z6 --- 15.1S7 147.4E6
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                                        060 NM
ELSEWHERE
      VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
      36 HRS, VALID AT:
      061200Z9 --- 15.5S1 145.7E7
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
      RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                                        015 NM
ELSEWHERE
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        065 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
      VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
      EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
      48 HRS, VALID AT:
      070000Z7 --- 15.7S3 144.1E0
      MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
      DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
      RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE

OVER WATER
                                                        040 NM
ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
        ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 150.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23P (VAUGHAN) CONTINUES TO CYCLE
BETWEEN PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING. IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 23P
(VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THEN TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AS IT APPROACHES
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7) AND 060300Z9
(DTG 060153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000405 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z8 --- NEAR 15.0S6 149.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 149.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 15.7S3 148.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 16.1S8 147.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.5S2 146.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.8S5 145.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 149.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 23P (VAUGHAN) HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE CLOSER TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AT APPROXIMATELY
070600Z3 JUST NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG
060153Z5) AND 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000406 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 15.4S0 147.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 147.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 15.9S5 145.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.6S3 143.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 17.3S1 141.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 147.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 40 KNOTS. A 052132Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING
MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A 052323Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
FAILED TO REVEAL A DISCERNABLE LLCC BUT DID INDICATE A DEVELOPING
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TC 23P (VAUGHAN)
SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TC 23P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE
BETWEEN CAIRNS AND ROSSVILLE BETWEEN THE NEXT 12 TO 16 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000406 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.6S2 146.0E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 146.0E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 16.0S7 144.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.4S1 143.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 145.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. A 061120Z0
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS EXTREMELY
SPARSE WEAK DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). THE SSM/I PASS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SYNOPTIC DATA, DOES SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF THE LLCC POSITION. A
SYNOPTIC REPORT AT GREEN ISLAND WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT 15 KNOTS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS NORTHWEST OF THIS STATION. THE SSM/I PASS
DOES SHOW A POSSIBLE LLCC IN THIS AREA. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS NOW
BUILT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CORAL SEA IN RESPONSE TO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW TC 23P TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ABOUT 71
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY THE 24-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z9 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20000407 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (VAUGHAN) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 143.8E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 143.8E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.5S2 142.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.4S1 143.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (VAUGHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 KNOTS. TC 23P (VAUGHAN) MOVED ONSHORE OVER 12 HOURS AGO AND
WEAKENED RAPIDLY. EARLY ANIMATED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOWED
RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE
COAST. SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES A BROAD, WEAK, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_vaughan_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016