Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ROSITA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ROSITA Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20000417 00:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 170021Z APR 00//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S4 119.9E0 TO 18.0S9
116.0E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 162301Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 118.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 119.5E6 IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 118.6E6. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADILY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE AREA HAS GOOD INFLOW. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE UW-CIMSS AND 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AREA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 180030Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000417 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- NEAR 14.1S6 119.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 119.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.5S0 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 15.1S7 118.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.6S2 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.3S0 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 119.5E6.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE KIMBERLEY COAST OF AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22
PGTW 170030), HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 27S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF PORT
HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION ONLY
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE TWO SYMMETRIC
SHAPED REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN TERRITORY OF AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE KIMBERLEY COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PROVIDING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 27S. TC 27S SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 170021Z APR 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 170030) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171952Z5) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180752Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000417 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 15.7S3 118.3E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 118.3E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 16.6S3 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.7S5 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 18.3S2 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 19.0S0 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 118.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S ROSITA, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
AS WELL AS ORGANIZATION ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ENTER(LLCC).
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEAKNESS. TC 27S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS RAPID RATE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO LANDFALL. THE
INTENSITY WILL PEAK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE TC 27S
(ROSITA) MOVES INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 (DTG 180752Z3) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181952Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000418 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 16.5S2 119.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 119.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 17.3S1 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 18.4S3 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 19.8S8 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.4S7 120.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 119.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ROSITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS.
TC 27S (ROSITA) HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
LAND, MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND NEAR THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TC 27S (ROSITA) WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND AN INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181952Z6) AND 190900Z9
(DTG 190752Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000418 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 17.7S5 119.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 119.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 19.0S0 120.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 20.2S4 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 21.9S2 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 24.6S2 127.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 119.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ROSITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
CONVECTION, BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 27S (ROSITA) HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL LANDFALL. LANDFALL, OVER EIGHTY MILE BEACH, WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE 18 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 27S (ROSITA) WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND AN INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190752Z4) AND
192100Z3 (DTG 191952Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000419 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 17.6S4 120.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 120.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 18.4S3 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 19.7S7 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 21.7S0 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 24.2S8 126.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.8S6 120.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ROSITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 190530Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AS EVIDENT BY THE FORMATION OF
A 14 NM DIAMETER EYE. A 190126Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER
(SSMI) PASS INDICATES AN EYEWALL WITH DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 27S (ROSITA) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS UNTIL
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 27S (ROSITA) WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191952Z7) AND 200900Z1 (DTG
200752Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000419 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 18.4S3 122.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 122.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 19.4S4 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 20.3S5 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 21.4S7 125.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 122.6E1.
TC 27S (ROSITA) MADE LANDFALL AT 191630Z0 APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. A 191548Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTED A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH A BANDING
FEATURE WEST OF THE EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ROSITA), NOW
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM SOUTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND DATA
FROM THE BROOME RADAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 125 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHT WEAKENING OF TC 27S OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS AS IT MOVES
INLAND. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC 27S HAD RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND
MAINTAINED A 10-14 NM DIAMETER ROUND EYE. THE BROOME RADAR LOOP
INDICATES A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY, BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE AND STORM SHAPE. TC 27S (ROSITA) WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 27S (ROSITA) WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 12 HOURS
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200752Z6) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201952Z9).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WTXS33 PGTW 20000420 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 19.5S5 124.7E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 124.7E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 21.2S5 126.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 125.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ROSITA), NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 27S
(ROSITA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
SANDY DESERT AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_rosita_jtwc_advisories.htm
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