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Tropical Cyclone NEIL : JTWC Advisories
Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone NEIL Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 20000415 07:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S5 178.7E3 TO 24.2S8
176.8E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 150530Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 20.0S2 178.5E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS ALSO INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKENING NEAR THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES STILL EXIST POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR 21S3. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 160730Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000415 15:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z9 --- NEAR 19.5S5 179.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 179.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z7 --- 20.4S6 179.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 21.5S8 178.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 22.5S9 178.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 23.6S1 177.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 179.0E7.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, WHICH WAS THE SUBJECT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 150730), HAS DEVELOPED
INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. A
150619Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS DEPICTED A
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. THE WESTERN HALF, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY THE
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN
THE POLEWARD ORIENTED FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXPOSED. AFTERWARD, TC 25P SHOULD
TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P SHOULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES UNDER
THE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 150721Z6 APR 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 150730) NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 (DTG 151952Z3),
160300Z0 (DTG 160152Z5) AND 160900Z6 (DTG 160952Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED WARNING UPDATES TO
SIX-HOURLIES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000415 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 19.9S9 178.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 178.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 20.6S8 178.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 21.5S8 178.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 22.6S0 177.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 23.7S2 176.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 178.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT TC 25P IS UNDER WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE WESTERN HALF,
HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE INHIBITED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC
25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE POLEWARD ORIENTED FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME EXPOSED. AFTERWARD, TC 25P SHOULD TAKE A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE
RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES UNDER THE STRONG UPPER
WESTERLIES. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160152Z5), 160900Z6 (DTG
160752Z1), 161500Z3 (DTG 161352Z8) AND 162100Z0 (DTG 161952Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000416 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z7 --- NEAR 21.7S0 178.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 178.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z0 --- 22.7S1 178.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 23.7S2 177.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 24.7S3 177.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 25.9S6 176.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 178.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P IS LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED. BASED ON VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WE RELOCATED THE
POSITION ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TC 25P
IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 152330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 30 NM
EAST OF THE LLCC. IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
AND A POORLY DEFINED LLCC. A 152104Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE UW-
CIMSS ANALYSIS NOW INDICATES THAT TC 25P IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. AFTERWARD, TC 25P SHOULD TAKE A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE
RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR
THE 36-48 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z7 IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160752Z1), 161500Z3 (DTG
161352Z8), 162100Z0 (DTG 161952Z4) AND 170300Z1 (DTG 170152Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000416 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 22.7S1 178.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S1 178.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 23.8S3 178.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 24.8S4 177.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 26.0S8 176.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 27.7S6 176.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 178.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH OF
SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
SEPARATING INTO TWO CONCENTRATED AREAS. ONE AREA ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF
THE LLCC, THE OTHER, JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST APPROXIMATELY 45 NM.
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
TC 25P SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO
TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161352Z8), 162100Z0 (DTG 161952Z4),
170300Z1 (DTG 170152Z6) AND 170900Z7 (DTG 170752Z2). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000416 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z0 --- NEAR 22.8S2 179.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 179.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z8 --- 24.9S5 179.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 27.0S9 179.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 179.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AND A
POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE REGION,
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
LLCC. A 160909Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 25P SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
162100Z0 (DTG 161952Z4), 170300Z1 (DTG 170152Z6) AND 170900Z7 (DTG
170752Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000416 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 23.7S2 179.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 179.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 25.6S3 179.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 27.7S6 179.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 179.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (NEIL) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES. A 161311Z3 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS
DEPICTS WEAK ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF A POORLY DEFINED
LLCC. TC 25P (NEIL) SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170152Z6), 170900Z7 (DTG
170752Z2) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171352Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20000417 03:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA 
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNING NR 007    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 23.7S2 178.7W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 178.7W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 25.6S3 177.6W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 178.4W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (NEIL) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 11
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
162330Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 
35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION. IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAKENING CONVECTION BEING 
SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. A 
162054Z8 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 35 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. TC 
25P (NEIL) SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 12 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_neil_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016