Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KIRRILY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KIRRILY Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20000126 21:30z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S1 111.0E3 TO 21.1S4 115.0E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261730Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S3
111.6E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS SLOWLY MOVING UNDER THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED OUTFLOW
ALOFT. UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR CHARTS ALSO INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR CLOSER TO THE SHORE OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND IN THE PATH
OF THE DISTURBANCE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 272130Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000127 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 16.9S6 112.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 112.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 17.9S7 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 18.9S8 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.0S2 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 21.1S4 109.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0. 112.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
270530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS NEW CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE ALSO VISIBLE MOVING IN
TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
KIMBERLEY BY THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE, TC 09S SHOULD TRACK
INITIALLY, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
TERRITORY MARGINALLY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 262121Z4 JAN 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 26213O) NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271951Z5) AND
280900Z9 (DTG 280751Z3). REFER TO FINAL WARNING ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
07P (JO) (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 18.4S3 112.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 112.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 19.6S6 111.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 20.6S8 110.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 21.7S0 108.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 23.3S8 107.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 111.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
271730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION WHICH HAS
RECENTLY BUILT OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA BUILDS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
MAY BEGIN TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE 36 TO 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280755Z7) AND 282100Z3 (DTG 281955Z0).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000128 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 18.2S1 109.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 109.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 18.5S4 108.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.3S3 107.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 20.1S3 106.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 20.7S9 105.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
110 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 109.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 280314Z8
TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATED THE SYSTEM
IS DEVELOPING AN EYE. CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SURROUNDING ABOUT EIGHT
TENTHS OF THE VORTEX. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN TERRITORY IS BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN
PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW FOR TC 09S DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SLOWING
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281955Z0) AND 290900Z0 (DTG
290755Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000128 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 19.1S1 108.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 108.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 19.3S3 108.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 19.5S5 107.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 19.7S7 107.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 20.3S5 106.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.1S1 108.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 77 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE PATTERN WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
CURRENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE, BUT, CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM.
TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S
(KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z0 (DTG 290755Z8) AND 292100Z4 (DTG 291955Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000129 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 20.4S6 107.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 107.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 21.2S5 106.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 21.9S2 105.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 22.4S8 104.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 22.8S2 103.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 107.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 90 KNOTS. CURRENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A 13 NM CLOUD
FILLED EYE. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S (KIRRILY)
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z7
IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291955Z1) AND 300900Z2
(DTG 300755Z0).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000129 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- NEAR 21.6S9 106.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S9 106.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 22.3S7 105.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
010 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 22.7S1 104.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 23.0S5 103.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 23.3S8 101.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 106.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 65 KNOTS. CURRENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ELONGATION TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A 291404Z0 SSMI PASS INDICATES A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THE
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE VERY CENTER. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
EVIDENCE OF ANY TYPE OF EYE. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET
IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z0 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2 (DTG 300755Z0) AND
302100Z6 (DTG 301955Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000130 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- NEAR 22.3S7 105.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 105.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 22.9S3 105.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
010 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 23.3S8 104.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 23.5S0 103.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 23.7S2 101.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 105.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
300530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS.
CURRENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 300119Z4 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER (SSMI) PASS INDICATES A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z9 IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301955Z3) AND 310900Z3 (DTG
310755Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000130 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 23.7S2 105.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
020 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 105.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 24.1S7 104.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 24.0S6 103.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.8S3 105.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. CURRENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID DECREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. A 301351Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI)
PASS INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM UP TO THE
EQUATOR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 09S
(KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S
(KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM=S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINING CONVECTION DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310900Z3 (DTG 310755Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000131 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- NEAR 23.5S0 105.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 105.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 23.8S3 104.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 24.0S6 103.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 105.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
310530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35
KNOTS. CURRENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 200
MB ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL JET SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS JET HAS SHEARED THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S
(KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7 (DTG
311955Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000131 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- NEAR 22.9S3 105.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 105.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 22.5S9 104.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 22.0S4 103.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.8S2 105.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), POSITIONED ABOUT 490 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
311730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 311338Z9 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
VIRTUALLY CONVECTION-FREE. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE REGION. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF
CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010755Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000201 09:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- NEAR 22.4S8 104.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S8 104.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 22.2S6 102.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 22.2S6 101.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 103.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), IS LOCATED ABOUT 515 NM WEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 010530Z9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE
THAT TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS UNDER UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW JUST TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE REGION. TC 09S
(KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010600Z7 IS 12 FEET. JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED THE DTG FOR WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON AND MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG 011955Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000201 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (KIRRILY) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 21.9S2 102.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 102.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 21.4S7 102.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 102.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (KIRRILY), IS LOCATED ABOUT 625 NM WEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011730Z2
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN OF AUSTRALIA CONTINUE TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 09S (KIRRILY) IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z0 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
08S (CONNIE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DAMIENNE)WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kirrily_jtwc_advisories.htm
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