WTXS21 PGTW 20000415 10:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 150951Z APR 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150721Z APR 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 150730)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S2 83.2E3 TO 15.2S8 76.7E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150830Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8 82.2E2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
150402Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS SHOWED THAT
THE STRONGER CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 161000Z8.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.0S2 178.5E1//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000415 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 001
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 79.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 79.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 15.8S4 78.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 16.4S1 76.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.6S3 74.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.5S2 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 79.4E0.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, WHICH WAS THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 151000), HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S,
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. A 152028Z8 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION PASS DEPICTS A
CONVECTIVE BAND SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF TC 26S WITH THE LLCC LOCATED
ABOUT 15 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 14
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 150951Z APR
00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 151000). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160753Z2) AND 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NONAME)
WARNINGS FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES (WTPS31 PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000416 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 002
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 78.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 78.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 16.0S7 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.1S8 74.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.1S8 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.0S7 69.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 78.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. A 160350Z5
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTED A DEVELOPED
CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COMPARED TO EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES,
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN 85 NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) EXTENDING OVER THE SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL
HIGH SITUATED NEAR 27.0S9 64.0E0 IS EXPECTED TO STEER TC 26S
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC
26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 (DTG 161953Z5) AND 170900Z7 (DTG
170753Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  25P
(NEIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000416 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 15.2S8 76.8E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 76.8E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 15.3S9 74.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 15.5S1 72.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 15.6S2 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 15.8S4 68.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 76.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER,
RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161624Z0 SPECIAL
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A WEAK LLCC LOCATED ABOUT 180
NM NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 26S SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 (DTG
170753Z3) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (NEIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000417 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING NR 004
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 15.7S3 76.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 76.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 15.6S2 75.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 15.6S2 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 15.6S2 72.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 15.7S3 70.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 76.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS. A 170310Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS
DEPICTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS BENEATH
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND. THE CONVECTION WAS
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES MOVING IN TOWARD
THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEAST. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 26S SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6) AND 180900Z8 (DTG
180753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P
(NEIL) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 27S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000417 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING NR 005
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z7 --- NEAR 16.8S5 75.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 75.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.9S6 73.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 16.9S6 71.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 16.9S6 70.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 16.9S6 68.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.8S5 74.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INNOCENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A WEAK
BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 26S
(INNOCENTE) SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000418 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 17.3S1 73.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 73.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 17.5S3 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 17.9S7 70.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 18.3S2 68.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 18.8S7 66.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 73.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INNOCENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
WEAK BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE. 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 26S
(INNOCENTE) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 26S (INNOCENTE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190900Z9
(DTG 190753Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000418 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- NEAR 17.5S3 71.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 71.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 17.6S4 70.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 18.1S0 68.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 18.8S7 67.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 19.9S9 66.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 71.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INNOCENTE), HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO
45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION BLOWING UP NEAR THE CENTER. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 26S (INNOCENTE) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INITIALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB TROPICAL LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE TRACK WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CAUSED BY A PASSING
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. TC 26S (INNOCENTE) IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG
190753Z5) AND 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20000419 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (INNOCENTE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- NEAR 18.0S9 70.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 70.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 18.2S1 68.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 69.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (INNOCENTE), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
190530Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. A 190450Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (SSMI) AND
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS EXPERIENCING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 26S (INNOCENTE) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (PAUL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ROSITA) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_innocente_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]