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Tropical Cyclone GLORIA : JTWC Advisories
Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone GLORIA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20000227 09:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S3 61.8E5 TO 14.0S5 56.0E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270830Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.9S3 61.8E5.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12
HOURS INDICATE THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF MADAGASCAR HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 270155Z 85H MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT AT LEAST A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FORMED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED AND THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR INDICATING THAT
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED ACROSS THIS SYSTEM. RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE WELL DEVELOPED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 280930Z2.
5. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.
FORECAST TEAM STEWART/MCKEOWN/WYNN//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000228 15:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 001    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 13.5S9 58.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 58.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z1 --- 13.3S7 56.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 13.4S8 54.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 13.5S9 53.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 13.7S1 51.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 57.6E8. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS 
NAVPACMETOCCEN 280921Z FEB 00 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 
PGTW 280930). THE AREA OF CONVECTION EAST OF MADAGASCAR HAS BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIED INTO TC 15S. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON A 280207Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LVL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST BUT RESTRICTED TO 
THE EAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION 
AND GRADUAL SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE 
SYSTEM OVER MADAGASCAR AND THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS IS CONSISTENT 
WITH OUR DYNAMIC AIDS AND GLOBAL MODELS. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY 
INTENSIFY THRU 24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. AFTER 36 HOURS 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS TC 15S SLOWS ITS FORWARD 
SPEED. THEREFORE A MORE AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF 1 T-NUMBER PER 
DAY IS FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 (DTG 290153Z0) AND 291500Z7 
(DTG 291353Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) 
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF 
THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTION SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO 
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA DSN 243-8872.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000229 03:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 002    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290000Z1 --- NEAR 13.0S4 56.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM 
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 56.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z4 --- 13.0S4 54.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM 
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 13.2S6 53.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM 
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 13.8S2 51.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 14.6S1 50.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 56.2E3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 15 FEET. TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO 
THE SOUTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED 
ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENT OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. OUTFLOW OVER THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING INHIBITED BY UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS WHICH ARE ALSO PROVIDING MODERATE SHEAR. RECENT MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS TO THE WEST 
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE FORECAST 
TRACK REFLECTS THE DEEP STEERING FLOW CONTINUING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM 
WESTWARD, WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS EASTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE WARNING PERIOD, THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS CURRENTLY INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW ON THE EAST HALF OF THE 
SYSTEM WILL ABATE ALLOWING FOR GREATER OUTFLOW AND FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE RATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE AJTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS 
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA 
(DSN 243-8872). NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 
010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KIM) 
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES.
FORECAST TEAM: DWINELLS/SWATZELL/WORKMAN//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000229 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291200Z4 --- NEAR 12.6S9 53.9E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 53.9E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 12.5S8 51.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 12.4S7 49.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 12.5S8 47.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 13.3S7 46.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
    ---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 53.3E1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 15 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S HAS TRACKED
STEADILY WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND RECENT CONVECTIVE
BURSTING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT
WEST SEMI-CIRCLE AND POOR TO THE EAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND GRADUALLY SLOW FORWARD
SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND
CLIMATOLOGY. TC 15S SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND THEN
INTENSIFY AT THE TYPICAL RATE OF 1 T-NUMBER PER DAY AFTER MOVING
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4
(DTG 010153Z0) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC,
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY
OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 20000301 03:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNING NR 004    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 12.0S3 51.5E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM 
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 51.5E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 11.9S1 49.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 11.9S1 47.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            010 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 12.4S7 45.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 13.1S5 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE      
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE      
                            090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
        ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.0S3   51.0E6.
TC 15S HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED SYMMETRY AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODERATE SHEAR ON 
EASTERN PORTION OF SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST TRACK 
CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE DEEP STEERING FLOW OF THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, 
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE 
WEAKENS AND RETREATS EASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE RATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
291500Z7 (DTG 291353Z3) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS 
SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA 
(DSN 243-8872). 
FORECAST TEAM: DWINELLS/SWATZELL/WORKMAN//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000301 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z4 --- NEAR 13.4S8 50.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 50.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 14.2S7 49.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 14.8S3 47.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 15.2S8 46.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 15.7S3 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 50.1E6. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 19 FEET. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON
LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010604Z1 SSMI PASS. TC 15S
IS NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS NOTED IN UW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ALL OF OUR
OBJECTIVE FORECAST AIDS WHICH ARE NOW CONVERGING ON A TRACK OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
6 TO 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR ANTSIRABE.
TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UP UNTIL LANDFALL AND THAN
WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE ISLAND MOUNTAINS WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION
AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN
WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5
(DTG 020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13P (KIM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A PRODUCT OF THE
ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE
TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000301 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 006
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z0 --- NEAR 14.1S6 50.1E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 50.1E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 14.9S4 48.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 15.7S3 47.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 16.2S9 45.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 16.9S6 43.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 18.3S2 40.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8 49.8E1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS TROPICAL CYCLONE
15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS AND IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR ANTSIRABE. CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING A WELL DEFINED CDO WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER AND A 011725Z6
SSMI OVER PASS SHOWING A 15 NM DIAMETER CLOSED EYE ALONG THE COAST.
STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TC 15S TRACKS
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS TC 15S TRAVERSES THE REGION. TC 15S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-INTENSIFY AS TC 15S EMERGES BACK
OVER OPEN WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS A PRODUCT
OF THE ALTERNATE JTWC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC YOKOSUKA (DSN 243-8872). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1), 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7), 021500Z8
DTG 021353Z4) AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000302 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 14.7S2 49.7E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 49.7E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 16.2S9 48.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 17.2S0 47.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 18.0S9 45.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 18.9S8 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 21.0S3 41.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.1S7   49.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 012300Z6 AND 020000Z2 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. TC 15S HAS BEGUN TRACKING INTO NORTHEASTERN
MADAGASCAR AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE ELEVATED TOPOGRAPHY DOWN THE CENTER
OF THE MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME WOBBLE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES
ACROSS THE VARYING TERRAIN. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING
WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SOME REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH ANTICIPATED THE
LLCC TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ALLOW FOR A GREATER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7),
021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4), 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0) AND 030300Z6 (DTG
030153Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS IS A
PRODUCT OF THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER, PEARL HARBOR, HAWAII.
QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT NPMOC
PEARL HARBOR (DSN 474-2320).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000302 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z8 --- NEAR 15.3S9 49.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 49.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z1 --- 16.6S3 48.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.7S5 46.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 18.7S6 45.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 19.9S9 43.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 21.8S1 38.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 49.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
020530Z0 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (GLORIA) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS
OVERLAND IN NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, IMAGERY REVEALS A NEW AREA
OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION
WITH THE ELEVATED TOPOGRAPHY IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER,
IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME WOBBLE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES ACROSS THE VARYING TERRAIN. TC
15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE
LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SOME
REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG
021353Z4), 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0), 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2) AND
030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000302 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 009
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 16.0S7 48.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 48.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 17.2S0 47.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 18.2S1 46.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 19.3S3 44.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 20.4S6 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 22.1S5 37.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 48.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 021130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (GLORIA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CIRCULATION DESPITE BEING OVER LAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 15S
(GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION
WITH THE ELEVATED TOPOGRAPHY IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR, HOWEVER,
IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME WOBBLE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVES ACROSS THE VARYING TERRAIN. TC
15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE
LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0), 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2),
030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000302 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 010
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z1 --- NEAR 16.5S2 47.8E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 47.8E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z9 --- 17.0S8 46.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 18.1S0 44.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 19.4S4 43.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 20.4S6 41.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 22.1S5 37.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 47.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 021730Z3 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (GLORIA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION DESPITE BEING OVER LAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERACTION WITH THE ELEVATED
TOPOGRAPHY IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME
WOBBLE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) MOVES ACROSS THE VARYING TERRAIN. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE LLCC REMAINS
INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, REINTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG
030153Z2), 030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8), 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND
032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000303 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 011
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 17.1S9 47.4E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 47.4E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 18.2S1 46.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 19.3S3 45.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 20.2S4 43.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 21.4S7 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 24.0S6 39.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2  47.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 022330Z0 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (GLORIA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DESPITE BEING OVER LAND FOR APPROXIMATELY
30 HOURS. THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE LLCC
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE LLCC REMAINS
INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, REINTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 (DTG
030753Z8), 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5), 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1) AND
040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE)
WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000303 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 012
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z9 --- NEAR 17.8S6 46.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 46.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z2 --- 19.1S1 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 20.1S3 43.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 21.1S4 42.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 21.9S2 40.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 23.0S5 36.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 46.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
030530Z1 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 15S (GLORIA) HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE LLCC
HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR OUTFLOW ACROSS THE REGION. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE OVER LAND. IF THE LLCC REMAINS
INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, A SLIGHT
REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG
040753Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000303 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 013
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 17.9S7 46.5E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 46.5E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 18.8S7 45.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 19.8S8 43.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 20.6S8 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 21.4S7 40.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 23.0S5 36.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 46.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031130Z8 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE
PAST 3 HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. TC 15S
(GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WHILE OVER
LAND. IF THE LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND MOVES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1), 040300Z7
(DTG 040153Z3), 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000303 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 014
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 18.3S2 45.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 45.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 19.3S3 44.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 20.3S5 43.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 21.2S5 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 22.0S4 39.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 23.6S1 36.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 45.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM, OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3),
040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9), 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 042100Z7 (DTG
041953Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
(NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000304 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 015
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 45.4E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 45.4E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 19.1S1 44.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 20.0S2 42.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.6S8 40.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 21.4S7 39.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.6S0 35.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 45.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TC 15S (GLORIA)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9), 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6),
042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2) AND 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLON
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000304 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 016    
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 18.8S7 45.0E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 45.0E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 19.3S3 44.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.8S8 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.4S6 41.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.1S4 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 22.8S2 37.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE  
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 44.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC HAS MOVED OFF LAND WITH
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING WEST OF THE LLCC, HOWEVER, FEATURES
ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
REMAINED DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
SUGGESTS A BROAD LLCC, WHILE THE 040553Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE
IMAGER PASS WEAKLY INDICATES THAT THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
OUR CURRENT POSITION. TC 15S (GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 
12 HOURS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 
041353Z6), 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2), 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4) AND 
050900Z4 (DTG 050753Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) 
WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000304 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 017
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 19.2S2 44.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 44.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 19.8S8 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.4S6 41.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 21.1S4 40.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 22.0S4 38.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 23.9S4 35.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 44.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15S IS UNDER WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. TC 15S
(GLORIA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2), 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4), 050900Z4 (DTG
050753Z0) AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P
(STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000304 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 018
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 19.3S3 44.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 44.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 19.8S8 43.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 42.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 21.5S8 40.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 22.6S0 38.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 25.0S7 36.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 44.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A VERY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK SYSTEM. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FLARED
UP JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ALTHOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAK
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY. THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER 30S3 IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 15S (GLORIA)
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
CHANNEL, AND WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4), 050900Z4 (DTG 050753Z0), 051500Z1 (DTG
051353Z7) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000305 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 019
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z5 --- NEAR 19.6S6 44.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 44.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 20.2S4 44.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z6 --- 20.9S1 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 21.8S1 41.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 22.9S3 39.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 25.7S4 36.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 44.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 INFRARED IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY DISORGANIZED AND WEAK SYSTEM. ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS MOVED FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
30S3 IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE TC 15S (GLORIA)
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4 (DTG 050753Z0), 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7),
052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3) AND 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  16S (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  17S
(NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000305 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GLORIA) WARNING NR 020
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 20.4S6 43.1E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 43.1E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 21.0S3 42.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 42.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GLORIA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST OF MORONDAVA, MADAGASCAR, DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAK FULLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION
ABOUT 100 NM EAST OF THE LLCC OVER LAND. SYNOPTIC DATA SHOWS SURFACE
PRESSURES NEAR 1010 MB AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AROUND THE LLCC.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO DISSIPATE BY THE 12-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (STEVE) WARNINGS (WTXS35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (NORMAN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (NONAME) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR ITS FINAL WARNING.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_gloria_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016