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Tropical Cyclone ZELIA : JTWC Advisories
Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ZELIA Track Map and Data

WTXS31 PGTW 981007 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- 11.1S3 91.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S3 91.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 11.6S8 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 12.3S6 92.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 13.2S6 93.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 14.2S7 95.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 11.2S4 91.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
. THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ITS LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION IN
SPITE OF CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSI
TY ARE BASED ON 070130Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING LO
CATED TO ITS WEST. MODERATE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO CONSOL
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981007 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- 12.0S3 93.9E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 93.9E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 13.1S5 95.1E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 14.2S7 96.2E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 15.3S9 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 16.6S3 98.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 12.3S6   94.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071143Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON 070600Z3 SURFACE
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING 25 KNOT (INTERPOLATED FROM TEN-MINUTE
AVERAGES) WINDS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE SYSTEM=S CENTER. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S IS BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE FORECASTED MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG
080155Z9) AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981008 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z8 --- 14.0S5 95.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 95.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 16.1S8 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.4S3 98.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 20.8S0 100.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 23.5S0 102.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 14.5S0 95.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 072330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TC 03S HAS BEEN GOVERNED BY THE STEERING FLOW
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
MODIFY TC 03S WITH BOTH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND ACCELERATED MOTION, SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKENING TC
03S. THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER INCREASINGLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FURTHER INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S AS WELL. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 12
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081355Z2)
AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981008 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z1 --- 15.1S7 95.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 95.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 16.5S2 95.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 17.8S6 96.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 97.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 20.1S3 99.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 15.4S0 95.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON
THE 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND INTENSIFIED FROM 35 TO A
45 KNOT SYSTEM. SATELLITE ANIMATION OF INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTER ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY.  SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
UNIV. OF WISCONSIN WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS ALSO INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
TAIL END OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITS THE AREA. TC 03S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST.  AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
FORWARD MOTION AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO A GREATER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE
48 HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z1 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090155Z0) AND 091500Z5
(DTG 091355Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981009 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POS
8
   090000Z9 --- 17.5S3 96.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 96.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z2 --- 19.6S6 97.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 21.7S0 99.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 23.4S9 101.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 24.4S0 104.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 18.0S9 96.7E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) HAS
TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6
HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (45 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON THE
082330Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN AN
AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS INDICATE
AN AREA OF GREATER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A
RESULT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING THE AREA. TC 03S
(ZELIA)IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG WESTERLIES. TC 03S
(ZELIA) IS ALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
48-HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 15
FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091355Z3) AND 100300Z4
(DTG100155Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981009 15:00z COR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z2 --- 14.5S0 96.5E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 96.5E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z1 --- 14.8S3 97.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 15.4S0 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 16.0S7 97.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 16.5S2 96.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 14.6S1 96.6E1.
THE POSITION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) HAS BEEN RELOCATED.
RELOCATION WAS DUE TO EXTENSIVE SHEARING OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (WARNING
POSITION) IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND APPROXIMATELY 230NM NORTHWEST OF
THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATES TC 03S HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY (35 KTS) ARE BASED ON INFRARED (091130Z4) AND MICROWAVE
(091122Z5) SATELLITE ANALYSIS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THE SUDDEN SHIFT, BETWEEN 082100Z1-090300Z2, IN THE TRACK AS THE
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASED SEPARATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTION OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TRACKING MORE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. FORWARD MOTION
SHOULD SLOW AS TC 03S BEGINS TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE STEERING
REGIMES. AS TC 03S REMAINS A LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED, THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TC 03S SHOULD
DROP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA (35 KTS) IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2
IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 (DTG 100155Z2) AND 101500Z7
(DTG 101355Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981010 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- 14.3S8 97.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 97.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 14.4S9 97.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 14.7S2 97.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 15.2S8 98.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 14.3S8 97.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 4
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
092330Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BUT IS MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION. THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101355Z5) AND 110300Z5
(DTG 110155Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 981010 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- 13.6S0 95.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 95.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 13.1S5 94.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 13.5S9   95.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ZELIA) IS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NO REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, RECENT VISIBLE AND MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM=S LOW-LEVEL IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS TIGHTLY
WOUND. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ZELIA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD IN LOW-LEVEL STEERING AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_zelia_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016