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Tropical Cyclone VANCE : JTWC Advisories
Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone VANCE Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 990317 12:30z
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S0 130.9E3 TO 13.7S1
121.6E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 170830Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 129.4E6.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MASS OF CONVECTION
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA INTO THE TIMOR SEA.
SYNOPTIC SURFACE DATA INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
EVIDENT IN THE CONVECTION.  THE AREA IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IS BELOW AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TC 28S (ELAINE). THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 181230Z5.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 001 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990318 15:00Z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 002
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z2 --- NEAR 12.3S6 124.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 124.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 12.7S0 122.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 14.2S7 120.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 16.4S1 119.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 18.3S2 118.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 123.7E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD, SOUTH OF JABIRY IN THE TIMOR SEA AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181130Z4
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 30S HAS MAINTAINED STRONG
CIRCULATION, BUT LOST ITS CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. CURRENTLY IT IS DEVELOPING BANDS OF CONVECTION ABOUT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS SHOW TC 30S IS IN
AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S SHOULD
TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND A 180145Z9
SCATTEROMETRY PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z3 (DTG 190157Z3) AND 191500Z6 (DTG 91357Z6). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
29S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990319 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- NEAR 13.6S0 121.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.6S0 121.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 15.0S6 119.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 17.0S8 118.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 19.0S0 116.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 20.9S1 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 121.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE TIMOR SEA AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 182330Z7 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
TC 30S HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND APPEARS
TO BE FORMING A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, AND THEN TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A COMBINATION OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY
PASS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG 191357Z6) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990319 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z3 --- NEAR 14.3S8 119.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 119.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 15.3S9 117.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 17.1S9 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 18.8S7 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 20.8S0 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 24.9S5 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 119.2E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 30S
(VANCE) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE TIMOR SEA AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 191130Z5
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 30S HAS ALMOST FORMED A
BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, AND THEN TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE
30S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR ABOUT
211800Z2 OVER EXMOUTH GULF. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON A
COMBINATION OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZED SYSTEM AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PASS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z3 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z3 (DTG 191957Z2), 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5), 200900Z1 (DTG
200757Z1) AND 201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990319 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 14.7S2 118.9E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 118.9E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 117.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.7S5 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 19.7S7 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 21.7S0 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.6S3 115.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6  118.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8
KNOTS.  FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC30S IS BEING
STEERED BY AN ANTI-CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  IT WILL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS IT FOLLOWS THE FLOW AROUND THIS MID-LEVEL
HIGH.  THIS STEERING WILL BE AUGMENTED BY A MID-LATITUDE WAVE
APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, FORCING TC30S TO RECURVE INTO THE AUSTRALIAN COAST.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT A NORMAL RATE UNTIL LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200157Z5), 200900Z1 (DTG 200757Z1),
201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  28S (ELAINE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990320 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- NEAR 15.4S0 117.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 117.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 17.1S9 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 19.2S2 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 21.3S6 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 23.5S0 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 27.6S5 115.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4  117.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S SHOULD RECURVE UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST,
AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG 200757Z1), 201500Z8 (DTG 201357Z8),
202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990320 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- NEAR 15.9S5 117.2E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 117.2E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 116.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.9S8 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.8S0 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.6S0 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 26.4S2 115.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9  116.9E7.
TROPICAL STORM 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 AND
115 KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 30S (VANCE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AS IT STEERS TC 30S (VANCE) TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 30S (VANCE) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AROUND THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8
(DTG 201357Z8), 202100Z5 (DTG 201957Z4), 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6)
AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990320 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z5 --- NEAR 16.6S3 116.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 116.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 17.8S6 115.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 19.4S4 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 21.0S3 114.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 22.7S1 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 26.3S1 115.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6  116.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 AND T6.5 (115 AND 127
KNOTS, RESPECTFULLY). TC 30S (VANCE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS
IT STEERS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE INITIAL 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 30S (VANCE) HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED AS IT
REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND
BETWEEN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR AS TC 30S (VANCE) MOVES INLAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5
(DTG 201957Z4), 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6), 210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2)
AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THE SYSTEM.
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990320 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- NEAR 17.3S1 116.2E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 116.2E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 18.5S4 115.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.2S4 114.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 21.9S2 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 23.9S4 114.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 28.7S7 117.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4  115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO ITS SOUTHEAST, RECURVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COAST.  THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 201730 SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A 13NM CLOUD FILLED EYE.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR LANDFALL DUE TO A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z1 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG 210157Z6),
210900Z2 (DTG 210757Z2), 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9) AND 212100Z6 (DTG
211957Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990321 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- NEAR 17.9S7 115.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 115.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 19.2S2 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 20.7S9 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 23.3S8 114.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 28.2S2 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1  115.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS.
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CAPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  IT WILL ACCELERATE OVER LAND AS IT RECURVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 (DTG
210757Z2), 211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9), 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5) AND
220300Z7 (DTG 220157Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990321 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- NEAR 18.6S5 114.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 114.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 20.3S5 114.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.4S8 113.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.0S7 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 28.1S1 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.0S0 114.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
DURING PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR
THE SYSTEM REMAIN AT T6.5 (125 KNOTS). THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS WARNINGS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 30S (VANCE) IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
OVER EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND MOVE INLAND. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR OFF THE CONTINENT, INHIBITING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY DURING THE INITIAL 12 HOURS, THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN,
FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z9 (DTG 211357Z9), 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5), 220300Z7 (DTG
220157Z7) AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990321 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z6 --- NEAR 19.3S3 114.6E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 114.6E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 21.0S3 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 23.3S8 114.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 26.1S9 115.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 29.0S1 117.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 114.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
THE SYSTEM REMAIN AT T6.5 (125 KNOTS). THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME WITH TC 30S (VANCE) FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AXIS OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND MOVE INLAND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
ENTRAIN DRIER AIR FROM THE CONTINENT, INHIBITING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A
RELATIVELY STEADY INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, FINALLY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211957Z5), 220300Z7 (DTG 220157Z7),
220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221357Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990321 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z2 --- NEAR 20.2S4 114.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 114.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 22.0S4 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 24.5S1 114.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 27.4S3 116.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 20.6S8 114.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 211730Z4 INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE 35 KNOT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN
VERIFIED BY SYNOPTIC REPORTS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  TC 30S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG
220157Z7), 220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3), 221500Z0 (DTG 221357Z0) AND
222100Z7 (DTG 221957Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990322 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 21.8S1 114.4E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 114.4E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 27.8S4 116.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 26.4S2 116.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.5S4  114.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERY STRONG, WITH SATELLITE ANALYSIS
INDICATING 125 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS.  THE 50 AND 35 KNOT
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED BY SYNOPTIC DATA FROM LEARMOUTH (WMO
94301 AND ONSLOW (WMO 94305).  THE SYSTEM HAS A 30NM DIAMTER EYE,
WHICH SHOULD PASS BETWEEN LEARMOUTH AND ONSLOW WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  TC 30S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ASHORE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220757Z3), 221500Z0 (DTG 221357Z0) AND
222100Z7 (DTG 221957Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990322 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z0 --- NEAR 23.0S5 114.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 114.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 25.7S4 115.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 28.7S7 117.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 114.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHERN
EXMOUTH GULF. PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC DATA CONFIRMED THE 50 AND 35 KNOT
WIND RADII. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE
SYSTEM HAS DECREASED INTENSITY TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 30S (VANCE)
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD, DISSIPATING
OVER LAND BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z0 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG
221357Z0), 222100Z7 (DTG 221957Z6), AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230157Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990322 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 24.9S5 115.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S5 115.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 28.1S1 117.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 31.3S7 120.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 115.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED INTENSITY TO NEAR T4.0 (65
KNOTS). TC 30S (VANCE) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY THE 24 FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230157Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS34 PGTW 990323 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 27.6S5 118.7E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 27.6S5 118.7E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 30.3S6 122.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 28.3S3 119.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE) HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23
KNOTS FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE FORECAST
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON 222330Z2 ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 55
KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN PH). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_vance_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016