Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone THELMA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone THELMA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 981204 10:00z
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 275 NM RADIUS OF 8.8S6 133.8E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S7 133.7E4. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE ARAFURA SEA HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 040108Z3 SCATTEROMETER
PASS AND 040000Z4 SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS OF
15 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF
THE DISTURBANCE. BOTH 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA SURFACE PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 051000Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981205 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 9.2S1 130.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 9.2S1 130.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 9.3S2 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 9.6S5 128.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 9.9S8 127.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.3S4 126.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 9.2S1 130.2E6.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON A 050530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A 050530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT TC 06S HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S SHOULD TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
ITS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, TC 06S SHOULD INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE WARM
WATERS NORTH OF AUSTRALIA. ALSO, THE UW-CIMSS 050000Z5 WATER VAPOR
WINDS INDICATE THE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS
12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
040951Z DEC 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 041000)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3) AND 060900Z5 (DTG
060753Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981205 21:00z RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 9.2S1 131.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 131.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 9.2S1 130.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 9.2S1 129.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 9.2S1 129.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 9.3S2 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 9.2S1 130.8E2.
TC 06S HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S IS A
VERY BROAD CIRCULATION AREA WITH WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. THE
AREA CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (25 KTS) ARE
BASED ON 051730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 06S HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS
INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT IS MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS 0501200Z8 WATER VAPOR WINDSHEAR PRODUCTS
INDICATE THE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
SOUTH. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE WARM WATERS NORTH
OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1) AND 062100Z9 (DTG
061953Z4).REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981206 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 003
02 AIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 9.6S5 130.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 9.6S5 130.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 9.8S7 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 10.2S3 129.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.6S7 129.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.1S3 128.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 09.6S5 130.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 2
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 060530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, CURRENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT ALTHOUGH TC 06S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS BROAD IN NATURE.
SINCE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE LLCC LOCATION WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO AS WE GO INTO NIGHTFALL AND
HAVE TO RELY ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE UW-CIMMS
060000Z6 UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CHARTS INDICATE TC 06S IS
SITUATED UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
HENCE, TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE WARM WATERS NORTH
OF AUSTRALIA AND THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z9 (DTG
061953Z4) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (BILLY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981206 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 9.4S3 130.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 130.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 9.4S3 130.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 9.5S4 130.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 9.7S6 129.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 10.0S1 128.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 9.4S3 130.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY (55KTS) ARE
BASED ON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF INCREASING
INTENSITY. AS IT CONTINUES TO CONTRACT AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THE
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SHOULD BECOME EASIER
TO LOCATE. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN DIVERGENCE CHARTS AND ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THEY ALSO
INDICATE MINIMAL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ABOVE THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO ITS SOUTH. AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, TC 06S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVEHEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z6 (DTG 070753Z2) AND 072100Z0 (DTG 071953Z5).
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981207 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 10.0S1 131.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 10.0S1 131.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 10.2S3 130.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 10.4S5 130.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 10.6S7 130.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 10.9S0 129.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 131.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE
ARAFURA SEA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AT 2
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON A
070530Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITIES ARE BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 95 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH TC 06S (THELMA) IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MITIGATING THE
STEERING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE. APPARENTLY, THE TROUGH, WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND DIGS NORTH
TOWARDS TC 06S (THELMA), IS CREATING ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW NEAR TC
06S (THELMA) TO COUNTERACT THE EASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THIS MITIGATION EFFECT HAS
ALLOWED TC 06S (THELMA) TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO
THE NAVAL OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM
(NOGAPS), THE TROUGH/RIDGE INTERACTION SHOULD AFFECT THE TRACK OF
TC 06S (THELMA) FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY THE 48 HOUR
MARK, TC 06S (THELMA) SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO HAVE SOME SWAY OVER THE COURSE OF TC
06S (THELMA). HENCE, THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLOW TO
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT TENDS TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM BUT WERE SOMEWHAT REDUCED
DUE TO THE AVAILABLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC INFORMATION OVER NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. UW-CIMSS DIVERGENCE CHARTS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND INDEED
TC 06S (THELMA) HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, BUT NOT
AT SUCH AN ACCELERATED RATE, AS TC 06S (THELMA) SHOULD BEGIN TO USE
UP THE AVAILABLE SURFACE LEVEL ENERGY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG
071953Z5) AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080753Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981207 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 10.9S0 130.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 130.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 11.5S7 130.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 12.1S4 129.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.8S1 129.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.4S8 128.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 130.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
(115KTS) ARE BASED ON 071130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES. IMAGERY REVEALS A 19NM RAGGED EYE WITH THE
EYEWALL APPROACHING BATHURST AND MELVILLE ISLANDS, JUST NORTH OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A
SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A FAIRLY
CONTRACTED WIND RADII. ALTHOUGH TC 06S (THELMA) IS UNDER THE WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH, ANIMATED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST IS MITIGATING THE STEERING EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE. THIS MITIGATION EFFECT ALLOWED TC 06S (THELMA) TO DRIFT MORE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE NAVAL
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS), THE
TROUGH/RIDGE INTERACTION IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
TRACK OF TC 06S (THELMA) FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE
FORECAST TRACK IS MORE WESTERLY AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK SPEED
GRADUALLY INCREASES AS THE STEERING FLOW TRANSITIONS. TC 06S SHOULD
NOW BE AT MAX INTENSITY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AUSTRALIAN
ISLANDS AND NORTH COAST. TC 06S (THELMA)=S INTENSIFY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THIS INTERACTION. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON
CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM, SATELLITE
SIGNATURE, AND AVAILABLE SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG
080753Z3) AND 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6). //
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981208 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 11.6S8 129.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 129.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 12.2S5 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.7S0 127.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 13.0S4 126.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.3S7 125.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 129.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A SMALL CIRCULAR EYE
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 080530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS BELIEVED TO HAVE PEAKED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY. SYNOPTIC DATA AS WELL AS THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONTRACTED WIND RADII. THE
STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAKLY DOMINATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG 081953Z6) AND 090900Z8 (DTG
090753Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981208 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 11.8S0 128.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 128.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 12.1S4 128.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.5S8 127.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.1S5 126.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.7S1 126.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 128.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 081730Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS DISPLAYING A 10-NM DIAMETER CLOUD FILLED
EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS IT MOVES
AGAINST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD SIGNATURE AND SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z8 (DTG 090753Z4) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091953Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981209 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 12.3S6 127.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S6 127.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.8S1 127.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
115 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.2S6 126.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.6S0 125.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.1S6 124.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WNDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 127.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM RETAINS ITS EYE AND CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY INTENSE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS. THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE REMAINS THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THE GAIN IN LATITUDE
REFLECTS MODULATION OF THE RIDGE BY PASSING MID-LATITUDE WAVES AS
WELL AS THAT BY THE TC ITSELF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECASTED INTENSITIES OR WIND RADII. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG
091953Z7) AND 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981209 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.9S2 126.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 126.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 13.6S0 125.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 14.3S8 124.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.1S7 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 15.9S5 122.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 126.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 130
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 091730Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS PRESENTLY DISPLAYING A
10-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN MAINTAINING
ITS PRESENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ITS EYE
FEATURE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 091419Z4 SCATTEROMETER PASS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100753Z6) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981210 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 13.4S8 126.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.4S8 126.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.9S3 125.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 14.4S9 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 15.2S8 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
080 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 15.8S4 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 125.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
100530Z9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 100530Z9 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS PRESENTLY DISPLAYING A
30-NM PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE, BUT ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE FEATURE HAS EXPANDED AND
CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS
APPARENTLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM THE FLOW COMING IN OFF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z7 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101953Z9) AND
110900Z1 (DTG 110753Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981210 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 14.5S0 125.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 125.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.5S1 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.2S9 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 123.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 125.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF 101730Z2 SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA)=S EYE IS NO LONGER
APPARENT. ANIMATION SHOWS TC 06S HAS APPROACHED THE COASTLINE OF
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND IS BEGINING TO EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN INFLUENCING THE
TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR POSITION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR POINT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE FLOW COMING IN OFF NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA, LAND INTERACTION, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1
(DTG 110753Z7) AND 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981211 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 15.7S3 124.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 15.7S3 124.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 16.6S3 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
020 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.2S0 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 123.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
025 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 18.3S2 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 124.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 06S (THELMA) IS DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA EAST OF YAMPI SOUND. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF THE DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM MAINLAND AUSTRALIA REDUCING THE
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111953Z0) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120753Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981211 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 17.2S0 124.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 124.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 18.1S0 124.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 19.2S2 123.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 20.2S4 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 21.3S6 123.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 124.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS MOVING OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 06S (THELMA) IS CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH. TC 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR
INTRUSION FROM MAINLAND AUSTRALIA REDUCING THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG
120753Z8) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121953Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981212 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 17.8S6 124.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 124.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.4S3 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.0S0 122.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.5S5 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.4S6 120.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 124.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WESTWARD COMPONENT IS DUE TO INFLUENCE
BY A PASSING TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HAVING BEEN OVER LAND FOR
AWHILE, THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE SYSTEM
IS MAINTAINING ITS LOW- AND MID-LEVEL ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS SOME
CENTRAL CONVECTION. DUE TO THIS, IN ADDITION TO IT APPROACHING THE
COASTLINE, THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE FULL 48 HOURS, EVEN THOUGH THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO
CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 120530Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 (DTG
121953Z1) AND 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981212 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 18.6S5 123.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 123.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.4S4 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 20.1S3 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 20.6S8 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 21.5S8 120.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 123.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
121730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 121730Z4 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT SANDY DESERT, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOIST
INFLOW FROM THE COAST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO TEMPORARILY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND
STEADY ORGANIZED STRUCTURE, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS
FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SIGNATURE. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130753Z9) AND 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981213 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 18.8S7 122.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S7 122.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 19.1S1 121.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.6S6 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.2S4 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.9S1 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 122.2E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
130530Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH STILL OVER LAND, THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION AND SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION.
AS TC 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO AND THEN OVER THE
WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN OVER LAND. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2) AND 140900Z4
(DTG 40753Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981213 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 19.2S2 121.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 121.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 19.6S6 120.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.0S2 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.7S9 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.4S7 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 121.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 131730Z5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION BUT HAS
RETAINED ITS ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OVER WATER AND
IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MOVES BACK OVER LAND NEAR
THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TRACK POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0) AND
142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981214 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 19.7S7 120.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 120.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 20.2S4 119.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.9S1 119.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.6S9 118.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.7S1 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 120.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 140530Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS BORDERING
ON THE COASTLINE AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER LAND, EVENTUALLY
GAINING LATITUDE IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC 06S (THELMA) TO DISSIPATE BY THE 48 HOUR
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981214 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 20.2S4 119.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S4 119.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 20.8S0 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.6S9 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.5S9 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.2S7 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.3S5 118.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 9 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 141730Z6
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(THELMA) HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM=S DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING CARRIED SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD INITIALLY, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD, IN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AN INCREASING WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 981215 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 21.0S3 119.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 119.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.9S2 119.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 23.0S5 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 24.2S8 118.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.7S4 118.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 119.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY
(30 KTS) ARE BASED ON 150530Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SATELLITE
ANIMATION SHOWS TC 06S (THELMA) HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
UNDER THE WEAK STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, BUT REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. TC 06S (THELMA) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND AND
DISSIPATE. HENCE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_thelma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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