Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone OLINDA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone OLINDA Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 990119 18:30z
191821Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 300 NM RADIUS OF 16.7S4 154.3E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191251Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S2 153.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
A 191251Z9 SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION IN
THE CORAL SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION.
THE CIRCULATION APPEARS AS A DEVELOPING MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUSTAINED INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. SEA LEVEL PRESSURES ARE NEAR
997MB WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 201830Z4.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990120 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- NEAR 16.9S6 157.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 157.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.1S9 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 17.3S1 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 17.6S4 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 18.0S9 161.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.0S8 158.1E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P HAS DEVELOPED AND TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST
AT 5 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
190230Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 25 KNOTS (10
MINUTE AVERAGED). TC 13P HAS DEVELOPED IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
SOME SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES. A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191251Z9 SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 11P
(DANI) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGHING. INTERACTION WITH TC 11P (DANI) MAY BECOME
EVIDENT AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE AND THE STRONGER PERIPHERAL
WINDS WORK TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 191821Z JAN 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 191830 ) NEXT WARNINGS
AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201351Z2) AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210151Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ALDA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990120 14:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEOBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVAEQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMDASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BAE ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z5 --- NEAR 17.2S0 158.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WIHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S0 158.3E7
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 17.6S4 158.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 18.0S9 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 18.4S3 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220)00Z7 --- 19.0S0 160.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WIDS - 090 NM
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.3S1 158.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 TOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200905Z6 MICCOWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (30 KNOTS) IS BASED ON SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 20-
25 KNOTS (10 MINUTE AVERAGE) AND SATELLITE INTENSITYESTIMATES OF
T1.0 (25 KNOTS). SATET TE ANIMATION SHOWS EXTENSIVE CONVECTION, BUT
NO CONSOLIDATION OR INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
AS SUCH, TC 13P REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE ANIMATION
DOES SHOW A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT SHEAR INDUCED BY TC
11P (DANI) TO THE SOUTPEAST. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BANDING. TC 13HI FORECAST TO CONTUMUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 11P (DANI) WITHIN THE BROAD MONSOON
TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH TC 11P (DANI) MAY BECOME EVIDANT AS THE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES CLOSER TO TCHBP (DANI). 13P IS
FORECAST TOHSTOWT INTNSIFZ AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TC 11PPUDANI).-VAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT AARNINGS AT 210300Z6 (DTG
210153Z2) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11P (DANI) (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWETELHOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990121 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z3 --- NEAR 17.3S1 158.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 158.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 17.6S4 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 18.3S2 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 19.0S0 159.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 19.5S5 161.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 158.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
03 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 202330Z0 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS)
AUGMENTED BY 210000Z3 SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS GENERATED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE IT IS FAIR. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WITHIN STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDS. TC 13P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 11P (DANI) WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH TC 11P (DANI) REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER THE DISTANCE SEPARATING THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE RADIUS OF GALE
FORCE WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTRACT QUICKLY AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SYSTEM INTENSITY INCREASES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
211500Z9 (DTG 211353Z5) AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990121 15:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 004B RELOCATED CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z6 --- NEAR 18.5S4 158.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 158.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z4 --- 19.0S0 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 19.5S5 159.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 20.2S4 160.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 20.9S1 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
211500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 158.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 211130Z8
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS CONSISTANT WITH A
210944Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTANT
WITH A 202330Z0 SCATTEROMETER PASS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE TC 13P HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 13P HAS BEEN BROAD IN NATURE AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT, THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IMPLIES THE LLCC MAY BE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION FINALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC.
TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF TC 11P
(DANI) THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY ALTERNATE TRACK SCENARIO. TC 11P (DANI) MAY BUILD A
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA STRONG ENOUGH TO
GIVE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEND TO TC 13PS TRACK AFTER THE 24
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, TC 13P
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: TO FAVOR THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES
WHICH ARE CONSISTANT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z7 (DTG 220153Z3) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR INITIAL CORRECTION: TO PLACE RELOCATED AFTER THE
WARNING NUMBER.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990122 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z4 --- NEAR 20.9S1 160.2E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 160.2E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z7 --- 22.5S9 161.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 24.4S0 163.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 25.8S5 164.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
115 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 27.2S1 166.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 160.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED INTO A MORE
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS A RESULT OF
REORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HOWEVER TC 13P (OLINDA) IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI). THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 212330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). TC 13P (OLINDA) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN TWO CHANNELS.
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM 211800Z2 SYNOPTIC DATA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z0 (DTG 221353Z6) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990122 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z7 --- NEAR 23.3S8 163.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 23.3S8 163.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z5 --- 25.7S4 166.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 27.7S6 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 29.4S5 174.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 30.6S9 178.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.9S4 163.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS WEST OF NEW CALEDONIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON A 221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(DANI) UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TC 13P SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, BY THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION, TC 13P SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A REALM OF
INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND IT BEGINS ITS TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (DTG 230153Z4) AND 231500Z1
(DTG 231353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990123 03:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 007A CORRECTED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z5 --- NEAR 25.8S5 166.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
150 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 166.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z8 --- 28.4S4 171.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
145 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 30.0S3 175.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
135 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 31.0S4 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 32.1S6 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
125 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION NEAR 26.5S3 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING, RECENT SYNOPTIC
REPORTS, AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH DEPICT A
WEAKENING INTENSITY STRUCTURE. TC 13 (OLINDA) CONTINUES TO FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF TC 11P (DANI) ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED
MONSOON TROUGH. TC 13P (OLINDA) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, MOVING
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEMS AS IT CONTINUES ON
ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 13P (OLINDA), THEREFORE, IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1
(DTG 231353Z7) AND 240300Z9 (DTG 240153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 11P (DANI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NONAME)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR
CORRECTION: REMOVE INITIAL POSITION 50 KNOT WIND RADII AND CHANGE
REFERENCE FOR TC 15S FROM WTPS34 TO WTXS31.//
=========================================================================
WARNING 008 NOT AVAILABLE
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990124 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- NEAR 25.4S1 173.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S1 173.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 24.9S5 176.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 24.9S5 178.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 25.5S2 179.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 26.6S4 176.2W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 25.3S0 174.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 232300Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
AND THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 13P (OLINDA) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITHIN THIS STEERING FLOW DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER A REGION OF
WEAKER STEEING BETWEEN THE CURRENT DOMINANT RIDGE AND ANOTHER
RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 13P (OLINDA) IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW AFTER THE
24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENERIO WOULD CONTINUE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IF THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW
REMAINS DOMINANT. TC 13P (OLINDA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER THE 12 HOUR PERIOD.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS
15 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 (DTG 241353Z8) AND 250300Z0 (DTG
250153Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990124 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 26.5S3 177.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5S3 177.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 27.6S5 179.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 28.7S7 176.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 26.8S6 178.6E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0
(30 KNOTS). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 13P (OLINDA) HAS
BECOME A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION REMAINING
AROUND THE SYSTEM, BUT IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII
IS OMITTED FOR SYSTEMS 35 KNOTS OR LESS. SYNOPTIC DATA DOES INDICATE
30 KNOT WINDS EXTEND OUT APPROXIMATELY 180NM FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TC 13P (OLINDA) HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY THE 24 HOUR POINT. TC 13P (OLINDA) IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER THE 12 HOUR
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250153Z6) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251353Z9). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. WE ARE EXPERIENCING SOFTWARE PROBLEMS WITH
OUR AUTOMATED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990125 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 27.6S5 178.9W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S5 178.9W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 29.0S1 175.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 178.4W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM PREVIOUS THE
WARNING WHICH UTILIZED SCATTEROMETER AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.
TC 13P (OLINDA) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SHALLOW RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND ALL THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, HOWEVER, HAS REMAINED INTACT
AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_olinda_jtwc_advisories.htm
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