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Tropical Cyclone ELLA : JTWC Advisories
Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ELLA Track Map and Data

WTXS22 PGTW 990209 13:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
091323Z FEB 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.2S6 160.4E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091130Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 160.4E1.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
4. REMARKS: 091130 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION.
CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SYNOPTIC SHIP REPORTS IN
THE AREA INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. MODERATE SHEAR IS
ADVECTING MUCH OF THE CIRRUS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
 THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW AND STIMULATE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES STRONG SHEAR TO
THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE TO WEAK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS NEAR 29 DEGREES, AND MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
 A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 101330Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990210 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z1 --- NEAR 11.5S7 160.9E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 160.9E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z4 --- 11.5S7 161.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 11.8S0 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 12.5S8 162.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 13.7S1 162.9E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 161.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P HAS FORMED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS AND IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IN WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO
SPIRAL BANDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 092330Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 091323Z FEB 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 091330) NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 (DTG 101351Z1) AND 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990210 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z4 --- NEAR 11.2S4 161.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S4 161.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z2 --- 11.0S2 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 10.9S0 161.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 11.2S4 162.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 12.2S5 162.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4 161.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P HAS REMAINED QUASISTAIONARY SOUTH OF THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 101130Z6 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. SHIP AND SYNOPTIC DATA ARE
INDICATING 20 KNOT WINDS UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH OF TC 19P AS WELL AS AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THIS AREA IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR
INTO THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF TC 19P, HINDERING ITS DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL PICKED UP BY
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
BE ENTRAINED INTO IT AND IT MOVES INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 (DTG 110151Z9) AND 111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990211 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z2 --- NEAR 11.0S2 163.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 163.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z5 --- 11.6S8 164.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 12.9S2 164.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 14.5S0 165.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 16.3S0 165.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.2S4  163.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST BASED ON
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (102206Z1).
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 102206Z1 MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND AN OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THIS SUBSIDENCE AREA IS
ENTRAINING DRY AIR INTO THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF TC 19P. OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING
SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTERWARDS, TC 19P SHOULD BEGIN A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED TROUGH. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO IT AND IT MOVES INTO INCREASING
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 (DTG 111351Z2) AND 120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  20P (RONA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990211 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 004 CORRECTION
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z5 --- NEAR 13.0S4 164.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 164.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z3 --- 15.2S8 165.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 17.3S1 166.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 19.6S6 166.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 21.6S9 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9  164.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 021130Z7 SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS). TC 19P HAS ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE INCREASED STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND CONTINUE TO
TRACK TC 19P TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TC 19P HAS INTENSIFIED AND APPEARS MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. THIS INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS. AFTERWHICH, TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SHEAR AND MIXES
WITH DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z6 (DTG 120151Z0) AND 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. REASON FOR JUSTIFICATION: CHANGE DISSIPATED TO DISSIPATING
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990212 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 005 (ELLA)
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120000Z3 --- NEAR 17.0S8 165.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S8 165.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z6 --- 19.9S9 166.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 22.8S2 167.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 25.8S5 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 28.8S8 168.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.7S5 165.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT 18
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY (40 KNOTS) IS BASED ON 112330Z0 SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE TC 19P CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AS THE LLCC IS NOW
DISPLACED ABOUT 26NM SOUTH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TC 19P HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AS THIS RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19P
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE 48
HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 (DTG 121351Z3) AND 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990212 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 167.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 167.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z4 --- 25.4S1 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 28.3S3 170.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 31.7S1 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8  167.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT 25 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 120600Z9 SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. TC 19P (ELLA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTEASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY
SLOWING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTERWARDS, THE
TC 19P (ELLA) IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT
TURNS TOWARDS THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SYSTEMS TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 12 HOUR POSITION. TC 19P
(ELLA) IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG 130151Z1) AND 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  20P (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990212 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z2 --- NEAR 21.8S1 167.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S1 167.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 24.0S6 169.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 26.4S2 170.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 28.6S6 170.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 30.6S9 170.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS REDEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
121730Z4 INFRARED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS AUGMENTED BY
121153Z3 SCATTEROMETER DATA. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADDED BASED ON
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST.  TC 19P (ELLA) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MOVEMENT
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPWPN30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z7 (DTG
130151Z1), 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7), 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4) AND
132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  20P (RONA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990213 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130000Z4 --- NEAR 23.2S7 168.7E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 168.7E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z7 --- 25.4S1 170.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 27.5S4 171.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 29.4S5 171.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 169.1E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
25 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM 121153Z3 SCATTEROMETER DATA. THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST REASONING. TC 19P (ELLA) IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD IN ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW FROM A
LOW-TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 (DTG 130751Z7),
131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0) AND 140300Z8 (DTG
140151Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) WARNING (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990213 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   130600Z0 --- NEAR 24.5S1 169.8E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 169.8E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 26.9S7 171.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 29.4S5 172.6E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 31.7S1 172.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z2 --- 34.2S9 171.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.1S8 170.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND 130000Z4 SHIP AND
SYNOPTIC DATA REPORTS OF 20 KNOTS 200 NM OF THE 130600Z0 WARNING
POSITION. HOWEVER,THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED BACK UNDER
THE STRONG CONVECTION.THEN, TC 19P SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. TC 19P (ELLA) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW FROM A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
14 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 (DTG 131351Z4), 132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0),
140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2) AND 140900Z4 (DTG 140751Z8). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  20P (RONA)WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990213 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z7 --- NEAR 25.2S9 170.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S9 170.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z5 --- 26.9S7 170.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z8 --- 29.1S2 171.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z6 --- 31.3S7 171.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 25.6S3 170.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
131130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS, AND 131200Z7 SHIP AND SYNOPTIC DATA REPORTS
OF 10 KNOTS 200 NM OF THE 131200Z7 WARNING POSITION. THE INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 19P (ELLA) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD IN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW FROM THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER
TO WWPW31 FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z7 (DTG 131951Z0), 140300Z8 (DTG 140151Z2), 140900Z4 (DTG
140751Z8) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 41351Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR THE FINAL WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 990213 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z3 --- NEAR 25.5S2 170.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S2 170.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z1 --- 26.4S2 170.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z4 --- 27.4S3 171.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.7S4 170.4E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND IS BEING STEERED
BY LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND 30 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO FORECAST REASONING. TC 19P (ELLA) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_ella_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016