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Tropical Cyclone ELAINE : JTWC Advisories
Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone ELAINE Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 990316 03:00z
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 160200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S6 115.0E7 TO 13.6S0
108.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 152330Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 13.3S7 114.8E4.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO ORGANISE IN THE CENTER OF A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  NUMERICAL MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 170300Z1.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990316 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 14.9S4 114.1E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 114.1E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.0S7 112.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.0S8 109.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.8S6 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.2S1 105.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8  113.6E1. TC 28S HAS FORMED
NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA AND IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 161730Z
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  TC 28S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
CYCLONES SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO INTENSIFY AT A NORMAL RATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 150251Z MAR 99 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 160300) NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z7 (DTG 170753Z3) AND 172100Z1 (DTG 171953Z6).
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990317 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z8 --- NEAR 15.6S2 112.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 112.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z1 --- 16.7S4 110.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z9 --- 17.7S5 107.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z2 --- 18.2S1 105.0E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            190 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 18.6S5 102.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            200 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5  112.0E4.  TC 28S (ELAINE) IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.  OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME, HOWEVER, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN
OFF-TIME WARNING DUE TO THE SYSTEMS RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS
BASED ON 162330 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS STHE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
(LOW VERTICAL SHEAR) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171353Z0) AND
180300Z2 (DTG 180153Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990317 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 003
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 16.4S1 112.0E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 112.0E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.0S8 110.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.8S6 108.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 18.9S8 107.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 19.9S9 106.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            160 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 111.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 170530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S (ELAINE) HAS A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
EYE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO MOVE MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD, IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, UNTIL
THE 48 HOUR TIMEFRAME, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO THE SOUTH. WIND RADII ARE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 161511Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1 (DTG
171953Z6) AND 180900Z8 (DTG 180753Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P
(HALI)WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S (NONAME)WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990317 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 004
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z7 --- NEAR 17.8S6 111.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 180 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 17.8S6 111.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 18.9S8 110.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 20.3S5 109.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            180 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 21.4S7 108.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 22.8S2 107.7E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 215 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            175 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0  110.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (ELAINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 171730Z9 ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 28S
IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S IS TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC 28S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, UW-CIMSS SHEAR CHARTS INDICATE IT WILL
BE ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HENCE, TC 28S
IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO INTENSIFY. THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CAN ALSO LEAD TO A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALTERNATE FORECAST TRACK
 SCENARIO. IF THE CONVECTION IS TOTALLY SHEARED FROM THE SYSTEM, THE
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER THE 24 HOUR
 FORECAST POSITION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PASS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8 (DTG180753Z4) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990318 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 005
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z5 --- NEAR 19.6S6 110.7E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 110.7E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 20.7S9 110.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 210 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            170 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 22.4S8 110.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            165 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 24.1S7 110.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 185 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            155 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 26.1S9 110.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 175 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            145 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 110.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AT 8 KTS OFF THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 180530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S (ELAINE) HAS A STRONG EYE FEATURE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD STABILIZE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN THE STORM SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT IS INDICATING 80 KTS OF SHEAR IN THIS
AREA AT THIS TIME, WHICH IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND RADII WILL DECREASE AS THE STORM
LOSES STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 (DTG 181953Z7) AND 190900Z9 (DTG
190753Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  27P (HALI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  29S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  30S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990318 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z8 --- NEAR 21.4S7 111.3E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 21.4S7 111.3E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z6 --- 22.9S3 112.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 24.9S5 114.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 25.7S4 115.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.8S1 111.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 181730Z0 ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S IS ELONGATING AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. INDEED, UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS TC 28S IS UNDERGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH TC 28S CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST, A MODIFICATION IN
THAT RIDGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS ALLOWING TC 28S TO
CONTINUE ON A MORE EASTWARD COURSE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S IS NOW FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
EXMOUTH BAY BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SEVERE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THEN INTERACTION WITH THE AUSTRALIAN
LANDMASS. NOTE, DUE TO THE HIGH WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THERE STILL
REMAINS A POOR PROBABILITY ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO IN WHICH THE
CONVECTION IS SHEARED CLEAR OFF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD ACTUALLY TURN WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG
190153Z9), 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5), 191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2) AND
192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
30S (VANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990319 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 007
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- NEAR 23.1S6 111.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 23.1S6 111.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 25.2S9 110.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 26.5S3 109.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 26.9S7 108.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 111.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OFF
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED UPON 182230Z6 ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC 28S IS ELONGATING AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED IN LINE WITH THE SHEARED SYSTEM SCENARIO. THE LOW LEVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 28S IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION
AND IS TRACKING MORE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. HENCE, TC 28S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINS
TO BE STEERED WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
IN THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z0 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG 190753Z5),
191500Z6 (DTG 191353Z2), 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND 200300Z5
(DTG 200153Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30S (VANCE)
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990319 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 008
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- NEAR 24.3S9 111.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S9 111.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 26.5S3 111.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 28.5S5 111.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 30.4S7 109.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 24.9S5 111.6E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
(ELAINE) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF
SHARK BAY, WESTERN AUSTRALIA, OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 190530Z8 ANIMATED
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON EXTRAPOLATION AND SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ANALYSIS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TC 28S IS BEING SHEARED APART AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY
AS IT PARALLELS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH TC 28S, HAVING BEEN
SHEARED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
WHILE THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 28S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BE STEERED IN
A LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG 191953Z8) AND 200900Z1
(DTG 200753Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  30S (VANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 990319 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- NEAR 25.3S0 113.8E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 113.8E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 25.8S5 115.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1  114.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (ELAINE) IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 8
KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS MAKING LANDFALL AND THE REMNENTS SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9
IS 14 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).  THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE  30S (VANCE) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW)FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_elaine_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016