Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CORA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CORA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 981223 15:00z
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S7 178.1W7 TO 17.9S7
174.1E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 231130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 179.7E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
THIS TCFA RE-ISSUED TO ADJUST THE POSITION OF THE TCFA BOX.
CENTRAL CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT ITS ORGANIZATION FLUCTUATES.
OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANT CLOCKWISE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRANSFERRED TO JTWC GUAM AS IT CROSSES 180 DEGREES.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 241500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981223 21:00z COR
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 14.8S3 179.1W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 179.1W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.5S1 180.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.4S1 178.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
070 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 17.8S6 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.5S5 177.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 179.3W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF FIJI. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 06
HOURS AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND ALSO
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THIS SYSTEM MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN 12 TO 24 HOURS DURING THE NORMAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. TC 09P HAS
BEEN TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS VERY
ACLIMATOLOGICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
DYNAMIC FORECAST AIDS AND THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL FOR TRACK GUIDANCE.
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE TC 09P IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A WEAK OR NO-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z4 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 231459Z DEC 98 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
WTPS21 PGTW 231500) JUSTIFICATION: TWO ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC VERSUS ONE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5 (DTG
240751Z9) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241951Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981224 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 15.3S9 178.6W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 178.6W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 16.0S7 178.4W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 16.7S4 178.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.4S2 177.7W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.1S0 177.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 178.5W1.
TC 09A HAS BEEN RELOCATED FUTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WAS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (240548Z3) AND INFRARED SATELLITE
ANIMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (TC 09P) HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 6
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY (60
KNOTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF INFRARED AND MICROWAVE FIXES.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 09P HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND STARTED TRACKING MORE SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. TC 09P IS BEGINNING TO TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 09P IS ALSO
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG
241951Z2) AND 250900Z6 (DTG 250751Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 981224 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 16.9S6 177.5W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 16.9S6 177.5W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 18.3S2 177.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.8S8 176.7W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 21.3S6 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
095 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 22.9S3 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 177.4W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (CORA) HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
241730Z7 ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TC 09P (CORA) IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TC 09P (CORA), ITS STEERING INFLUENCE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY AN APPROACING TROUGH. HENCE, TC 09P (CORA)
SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND BEGIN A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE OUTFLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND TC 09P (CORA) SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z2 IS 16 FEET. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE DATELINE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE NEXT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED BY NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HAWAII (SEE WHPS31 PHNC
250600).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981225 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 18.2S1 176.7W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 176.7W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 19.4S4 176.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 20.7S9 175.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 22.2S6 174.6W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 24.0S6 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. LATEST
ANIMATED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, WHILE GOOD OUTLFOW CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS
OF 09P. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN AS FAR
AS 400 NM FROM THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE FIXES AND DIVORAK ANALYSIS. STEERING FLOW FOR 09P
CONTINUES TO BE WEAK, AS ANALYZED AT 500 MBS, HENCE THE 5-8 KT
SPEED OF MOVEMENT. BY 36 HOURS, 09P STARTS TO BECOME AFFECTED BY
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A MORE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT. 09P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A DECREASE IN
THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE COOLER SST TO THE SOUTH. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 AND 260900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981225 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 19.9S9 175.6W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 175.6W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 21.7S0 174.7W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 23.6S1 173.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 24.6S2 170.1W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 25.5S2 166.3W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 22 FEET. LATEST
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
FIXES AND DVORAK ANALYSIS. LATEST STEERING FLOW INDICATES 09P
WILL TAKE A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS INDICATED BY
NOGAPS 500 MB ANALYSIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981226 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 21.7S0 174.4W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S0 174.4W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 23.9S4 172.7W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 25.9S6 169.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 27.8S7 165.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 29.7S8 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 22 FEET. LATEST
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS DUE
ENTERING AND INCREASED SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND ENTERS A COLD SST GRADIENT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262030Z3 AND 270830Z0.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981226 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 23.1S6 170.7W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 170.7W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 24.8S4 167.4W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 26.6S4 163.9W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 27.6S5 160.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 28.0S0 156.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 26 FEET. LATEST IR
ANIMATION INDICATES SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE SOME WARMING IN THE
CLOUD TOPS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASING OVER THE PAST 8
HOURS THOUGH SYSTEM HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981227 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 24.7S3 166.1W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 166.1W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 26.2S0 161.3W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 27.7S6 156.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 29.1S2 150.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 30.4S7 144.0W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 26 FEET. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS BEGINNING
TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF CORA. AS THIS CYCLONE GAINS
LATITUDE, CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT CONTINUED ACCELERATION AND
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. THIS DUE TO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272030Z4 AND 280830Z1.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981227 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 26.1S9 161.1W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S9 161.1W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 27.5S4 156.0W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 29.1S2 150.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 30.6S9 144.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 32.2S7 137.8W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
18 FEET. LATEST INFRARED ANIMATION INDICATES SYSTEMS WILL SOON
BEGIN TRANSITION INTO EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PRESENT
MOTION AND FORECASTED MOVEMENTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE TO
STEERING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981228 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (CORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 27.8S7 156.0W2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 156.0W2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 29.7S8 150.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AND ACCELERATED BY MID
LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND
OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_cora_jtwc_advisories.htm
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