WTXS21 PGTW 990226 18:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 261821Z FEB 99//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251821Z FEB 99//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 251830)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSYPU>--Q/-/K--QQI/A)U)/-KA/KSIBLE
WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 21.1S4 37.5E5 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261102Z2 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7S9 36.9E8.  THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
3. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT
IS IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTIC DATA IN
THE AREA INDICATES A 2 MB PRESSURE FALL THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A
260711Z7 SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS 120 NM FROM THE
CENTER POSITION. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 271830Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990227 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z2 --- NEAR 21.4S7 38.5E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 21.4S7 38.5E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 22.1S5 39.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 22.9S3 40.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 23.7S2 41.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.5S1 41.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.6S9 38.7E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S
HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 6 KNOTS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
271130Z4 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25
 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES TC 23S HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE TRACKING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
 ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HENCE,
TC 23S IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12
 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
 WIND RADII ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR SYSTEMS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS.
 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 10 FEET. THIS
 WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
 261821Z FEB 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 261830) NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3
(DTG 280151Z7) AND 281500Z6 (DTG 281351Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990228 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z0 --- NEAR 22.3S7 40.6E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S7 40.6E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z3 --- 23.1S6 41.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.9S5 41.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 25.8S5 41.6E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9  40.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 272330Z7 INFRARED AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TC 23S HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NO
LONGER EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INDICATES TWO POSSIBLE LLCCS. AS VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE, RELOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH AND WINDSHEAR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY.
 TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER 24HRS, TC 23S SHOULD BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN,
TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL
 WINDSHEAR AND BEGIN WEAKENING. WIND RADII ARE NOT
INCLUDED FOR SYSTEMS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS
10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6
(DTG 281351Z0) AND 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8). REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GITA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990228 15:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z3 --- NEAR 23.2S7 42.3E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S7 42.3E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 43.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 25.1S8 44.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 26.3S1 44.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 27.3S2 44.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9   42.7E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281100Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). TC 23S
HAS REMAINED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
SHEARED ABOUT 90NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). WEAK STEERING FLOW AND NUMEROUS STEERING INFLUENCES MAY
CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM AND SHORT TERM ERRATIC TRACK
CHANGES. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK
MORE SOUTHWARD AND EVEN BEGIN TO TURN BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FURTHER INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE EAST, HOWEVER,
APPEARS GOOD. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 (DTG 010151Z8) AND
011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24P (GITA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990301 03:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z1 --- NEAR 24.0S6 42.7E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S6 42.7E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z4 --- 24.7S3 43.2E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z2 --- 25.6S3 43.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 26.5S3 43.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY (30 KNOTS) ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 010000Z1
METEOSAT5 INFRARED AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
SYNOPTIC DATA, AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 23S HAS BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH MINIMUM CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA STILL
INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT THE LLCC
IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER 24HRS, TC 23S SHOULD BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 23S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE 36 HOUR POSITION. WIND RADII
ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR SYSTEMS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30
PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z7 (DTG 011351Z1) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990301 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z7 --- NEAR 25.1S8 43.5E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GU{k+ALID AT:
   011800Z0 --- 26.4S2 44.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z8 --- 27.7S6 44.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - #MARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1   43.6E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING AND 010600Z7
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 23S HAS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED TOWARDS THE
EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. TC 23S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
DISSPATING OVER WATER. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_199923_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]