Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 199921 : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 1998-1999 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone 199921 Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 131500
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 22.5S9 38.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 38.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 24.2S8 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 26.2S0 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 28.2S2 39.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 30.1S4 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 33.9S5 44.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 22.9S3 38.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 131130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND 130730Z4 SCATTEROMETRY
BULLS-EYE PASS WITH 30 KNOT WINDS. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH A MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO ITS
EAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. REFER
TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z7 (DTG 131953Z2), 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4), 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0) AND 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (RONA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990213 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 23.1S6 37.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 37.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 24.5S1 38.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 25.8S5 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.6S5 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 29.9S0 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 34.0S7 44.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 37.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST, FAIR ELSEWHERE. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS AUGMENTED BY 131525Z7 MICROWAVE DATA. THE MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDER THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING
PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS, THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 21S IS
ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS A MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BEGINS TO TRANSIT
COOLER WATER. WIND RADII AFTER 36 HOURS ARE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE EFFECTS OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 (DTG 140153Z4),
140900Z4 (DTG 140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7) AND 142100Z8 (DTG
141953Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNING (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990214 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 23.8S3 38.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 38.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 25.1S8 38.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.5S3 39.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 28.2S2 39.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 30.2S5 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 33.4S0 45.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 24.1S7 38.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. 131833Z9
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 132330Z2 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. AFTER 36 HOURS IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT TC 21S WILL RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 (DTG
140753Z0), 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8 (DTG 141953Z3) AND
150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990214 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 004 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 23.5S0 38.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 38.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 24.4S0 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 25.6S3 39.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 27.1S0 40.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 28.6S6 42.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 32.2S7 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 39.0E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. RELOCATION IS BASED ON
RELOCATED FIXES FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER CENTER AND THE
140600Z1 FIX FROM THE METEO-FRANCE AT LA REUNION WHICH HOLD THE
SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LAST WARNING
POSITION. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
140530Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AS WELL AS 140600Z1 SHIP SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF
35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
GOOD IN ALL OTHER QUADRANTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. AFTER 48 HOURS, TC
21S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. WIND RADII WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND UNTIL IT BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN BY 48 HOURS, BEGIN
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WEAKEN, AND ACCELERATE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 (DTG 141353Z7), 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5) AND 150900Z5 (DTG
150753Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990214 15:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO >AMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 22.8S2 39.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S2 39.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 22.2S6 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 22.0S4 39.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 22.3S7 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 22.4S8 37.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 22.5S9 34.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 39.8E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 141130Z0
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS AND
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS THE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
ARE VARIED. THIS FORECAST MAKES A BREAK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY OF TC 21S RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 21S IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING INFLUENCE OVER TC 21S. HENCE, OUR NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS
TC 21S TRAVELLING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING MORE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PONTA SAO
SEBASTIAO, MOZAMBIQUE IN PROXIMATELY 60 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 60 HOURS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER IT, ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THEN, TC
21S SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8
(DTG 141953Z3), 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1)
AND 151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ELLA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990214 21:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 40.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 40.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 21.5S8 40.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.1S4 39.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.2S5 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 21.5S8 36.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 22.2S6 33.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.9S2 40.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKEND SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO
VERTICAL SHEAR. 141512Z4 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 141730Z6 INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MOVES EAST AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE ON THIS SYSTEM. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM DECREASES,
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150153Z5), 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1),
151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8) AND 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990215 03:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 21.4S7 40.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 40.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 20.6S8 40.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 20.3S5 39.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 20.3S5 38.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.2S5 40.3E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DISSIPATED DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. 141820Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL WELL-WRAPPED. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 142030Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO FRICTIONAL SPINDOWN AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 (DTG 150753Z1),
151500Z2 (DTG 151353Z8), 152100Z9 (DTG 151953Z4) AND 160300Z0 (DTG
160153Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 990215 09:00z
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 19.8S8 40.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S8 40.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.0S0 40.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 18.8S7 39.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.6S6 40.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON A 150530Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
SHOW TC 21S IS NOW A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH 12
HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO FRICTIONAL SPINDOWN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY THE
24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z2 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_199921_jtwc_advisories.htm
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