WTPS21 PGTW 990124 09:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
240921Z JAN 99//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO BAMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY P,29AMEMBASSY
HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATIO.PA SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 230 NM 2ARU4S 139.8E1 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVA)L UQ;T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYC?ANQ THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 240730Z6
)MR:CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S5 X45ES QUASI-STATIONARY
DRIFTING SOTHEASTWARD AT02 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS:
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERNPBULF OF CARPENTARIA HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS. UIIH-NQELLITE
ANIMATION INDICATE A CONSOLIDATION O?HE DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. SYNOPTIC DA4A (240600Z2) INDICATES A 998MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDEDIKPTHE CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE THIS AREA  HE BROADER
MONSOON TROUGH. UPPR+JEUCT ANALYSIS, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND
UW-CIMMS SHEAR PR-QNDICATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LIGHT AND
OUTFLOW ALOFT IS GOOD. AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORABLE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 250930Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990125 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 001
   04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z3 --- NEAR 13.0S4 139.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 139.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z6 --- 13.3S7 139.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 13.6S0 139.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 14.0S5 139.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 14.6S1 139.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5  139.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P HAS DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. TC
16P HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY (30 KNOTS) IS BASED ON 250530Z5
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND A PARTIAL
MICROWAVE SCATTEROMETER PASS (250036Z6) OF 30-35 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM LIES WITHIN THE ELONGATED MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH CIRCULATION. AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTENSITY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250600Z3 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
NAVPACMETOCCEN 240921Z8 JAN 99 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 240930) NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 (DTG 251951Z3) AND
260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (OLINDA)
WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990125 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z6 --- NEAR 13.4S8 138.6E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 138.6E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z4 --- 13.7S1 138.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 14.1S6 138.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 14.6S1 138.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 15.2S8 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.5S9 138.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CARPENTERIA. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 251800Z4 RADAR DATA, 251730Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) MODIFIED BY SYNOPTIC DATA. TC 16P IS STILL CONSOLIDATING AND
BOTH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
16P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A SINGLE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: TO
ADJUST WARNING POSITION SOUTHWEST OF PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z7 (DTG 260751Z1) AND 262100Z1 (DTG 261951Z4).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PETE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (DAMIEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990126 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z4 --- NEAR 13.9S3 138.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: NEAR 13.9S3 138.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z7 --- 14.5S0 138.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 15.0S6 137.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 15.6S2 137.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 16.2S9 137.3E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6  138.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 260530Z6 ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON A SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE TC 16P CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. HOWEVER, SINCE TC 16P IS STILL ORGANIZING,
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS BROAD IN NATURE AND DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS
INDICATE TC 16P IS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. INDEED, THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 16P CONTINUES
TO BE DRAWN SOUTHEASTWARD. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
ROUGHLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG
261951Z4) AND 270900Z8 (DTG 270751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 990126 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z7 --- NEAR 14.5S0 137.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 137.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z5 --- 15.0S6 137.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z8 --- 15.5S1 137.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z6 --- 16.0S7 136.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 137.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P HAS WEAKENED TO 30 KNOTS AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOST DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION HAS
IT APPEARS THERE IS A SECOND CIRCULATION EAST OF THE WARNING
POSITION, INDICATING TC 16P HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 261730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW
FROM A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN COAST BY 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 13 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(DAMIEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_199916_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]