WHPS21 PHNC 981222 00:00z
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 13.2S6 175.6W9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5
175.5W8.  THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  THE NEXT SATELLITE
INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 230000Z5.
2. REMARKS: CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED THE PAST 6
HOURS. VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE
NORTH QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINUALLY
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 230000Z5.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981222 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- NEAR 21.5S8 151.6W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 151.6W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 23.1S6 152.4W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 24.7S3 152.7W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 26.4S2 152.7W5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 28.5S5 151.9W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:  LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. 08P SHOWS
INDICATIONS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AS LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. SYNOPTIC/NUMERIC DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. FORECAST MOVEMENT IS INITIALLY SLOW
TO THE SOUTH THEN INCREASES IN FORWARD MOTION AS 08P ENCOUNTERS
ACCELERATING WESTERLY FLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221430Z2 AND 230230Z0.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981222 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- NEAR 23.5S0 151.6W3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.5S0 151.6W3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 24.0S6 151.0W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 24.6S2 150.6W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS: LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING
STRONG SHEAR AS IT ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 12 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL
PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981223 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- NEAR 26.9S7 148.9W2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S7 148.9W2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 30.0S3 145.6W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 33.5S1 141.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 37.4S4 136.2W2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 35 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 40.3S7 128.5W6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
REISSUED DUE TO LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING
CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, AND SCATTEROMETRY
DATA INITIALIZING ANALYSIS INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 AND 240300Z9. ALSO SEE NAVPACMETOCCEN
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WHPS21 PHNC 230000 (DTG 222330Z
DEC 98).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981223 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHEASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- NEAR 32.1S6 144.8W7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
         0                  030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.1S6 144.8A7
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 36.1S0 138.9W1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 42 KTS
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 38.8S9 128.9W0
   MAX SUSTAID WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 37 KTS
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 40.2S6 119.6W7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 24 KTS
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
 - 48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 41.2S7 113.4W9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTPET    EXTRATROPQCAL
REMARKS: SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AS IT ACELERATES INTO THE WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z ISYQFET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
2400Z9 AND 241500Z2. ALSO SEE NAVPACMETOCCEN TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WHPS21 PHNC 230000 (DTG222330Z DEC 98).//
=========================================================================
WHPS31 PHNC 981224 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHEAST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- NEAR 39.9S1 134.0W8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 40 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 39.9S1 134.0W8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 43.8S5 124.7W4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS: ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL
SHEARING. SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND HAS
ACCELERATED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND
OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_199908_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]