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Tropical Cyclone YALI : JTWC Advisories
Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone YALI Track Map and Data

WTPS31 PGTW 980318 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z2 --- 11.9S1 166.9E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S1 166.9E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z0 --- 12.2S5 165.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 12.6S9 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 13.1S5 164.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 13.6S0 163.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 181130Z4 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ITS ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPED CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS, FAIR ELSEWHERE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO ITS LARGER THAN AVERAGE
SIZE THEN INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 11 FEET.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES THE 172255Z2 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW). NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 AND
191500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980319 03:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 003A
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z0 --- 12.4S7 165.4E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 165.4E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z3 --- 12.8S1 164.5E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 13.3S7 163.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 13.6S0 163.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 13.8S2 163.2E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 14.1S6 162.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 12.5S8  165.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7
VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
182330Z7 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE STEERING
FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BY THE 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITION WHICH WILL CAUSE A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TRACK. AFTER THE 36 HOUR
POSITION, THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FROM THE 36 TO 72
HOUR POSITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION: TO ADD THE SIX HOURLY WARNING TIMES AND TO CORRECT
MANOP HEADER FOR TC 28S (FIONA). NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 (DTG
190751Z3), 191500Z6 (DTG 191351Z0), 192100Z3 (DTG 191951Z6) AND
200300Z5 (DTG 200151Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980319 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z6 --- 12.8S1 164.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 164.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z9 --- 13.4S8 163.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 13.8S2 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 14.1S6 162.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 14.3S8 162.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 14.8S3 160.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION 12.9S2  164.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 190530Z8
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN A GRADUAL SLOWING AND SLIGHT TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES, WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER
THE 48 HOUR POSITION, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBUILD AND STEER THE SYSTEM BACK TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT SHOULD REMAIN IN A REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER, CURRENT SYNOPTIC DATA AND AN 181258Z5 SCATTEROMETER PASS
STILL INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM=S SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE BANDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z6 (DTG
191355Z4), 192100Z3 (DTG 191955Z0), 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3),
AND 200900Z1 (DTG 200755Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980319 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z3 --- 13.7S1 163.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 163.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z2 --- 14.1S6 162.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 14.5S0 161.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 14.7S2 160.5E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 14.8S3 159.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 14.9S4 157.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 13.8S2  163.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P HAS TRACKED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
191130Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 191130Z5 SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 35 KNOTS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE A SLOWING AND TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
WEST THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z3 IS 12 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 (DTG
191955Z0), 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3), 200900Z1 (200755Z9) AND
201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6).  REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S
(FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980319 21:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 006A
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z9 --- 13.8S2 163.2E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 163.2E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z8 --- 14.1S6 162.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 14.4S9 161.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 14.7S2 160.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 14.9S4 159.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 15.2S8 157.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 13.9S3  163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS TRACKED TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 191730Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 191730Z1 SATELLITE DERIVED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI)
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
INTENSIFY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z9 IS 12 FEET. JUSTIFICATION: TO CORRECT NEXT WARNING
TIMES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3), 200900Z1 (DTG
200755Z9), 201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6), AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201955Z2)
.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980320 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 007 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z2 --- 13.7S1 163.3E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 163.3E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z5 --- 13.9S3 162.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 14.3S8 161.9E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 14.6S1 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 15.0S6 160.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 16.1S8 158.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 13.7S1  163.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4
KNOTS FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED BASED ON THE
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE REGION WHICH INDICATED THE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A 192330Z8 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS AND A
192332Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE 48 HOUR POSITION DUE
TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENED STEERING FLOW AND SLOWER MOTION THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE NAVY=S OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE SYSTEM=S EAST SHOULD BEGIN TO
BUILD WHICH MAY RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P (YALI) SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM=S
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z1 (DTG 200755Z9), 201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6), 2021000Z5 (DTG
201955Z2),AND 210300Z6 (DTG 210155Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980320 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z8 --- 13.8S2 163.1E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 163.1E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z1 --- 14.2S7 162.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 14.5S0 162.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 15.0S6 161.5E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 15.5S1 160.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 17.2S0 158.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION 13.9S3  163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 4 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
200530Z0 VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A 200530Z0 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENED STEERING FLOW DUE TO A WEAKNESS INDUCED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY THE PRESENT PASSAGE OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT
THE 48 HOUR POSITION. AFTER 48 HOURS, A RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO
BUILD TO THE SYSTEM'S EAST WHICH SHOULD INCREASE ITS MOVEMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS BEEN SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z8 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z8 (DTG 201355Z6),
202100Z5 (DTG 201955Z2), 210300Z6 (DTG 210155Z4), AND 210900Z2
(DTG 210755Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980320 15:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z5 --- 14.1S6 162.8E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S6 162.8E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z3 --- 14.5S0 162.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 14.8S3 161.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 15.2S8 161.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 15.7S3 160.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 16.9S6 159.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z8 POSITION 14.2S7  162.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS SLOWLY TRACKED TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 201130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 201130Z7 SATELLITE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM=S ORGANIZATION AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
STEERING FLOW FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE END OF THE 72 HOUR
PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS
IN AN AREA FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z5 IS 14 FEET.  NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201955Z2), 210300Z6 (DTG210155Z4),
210900Z2 (DTG 210755Z0) AND 211500Z9 (DTG 211355Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980320 21:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z1 --- 14.3S8 162.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 162.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z9 --- 14.7S2 161.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 15.1S7 161.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 15.6S2 160.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 16.2S9 160.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z4 --- 17.4S2 159.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION 14.4S9  162.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS TRACKED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS AT A SPEED OF 04 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 201730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 201730Z3 SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO BUILD SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE STEERING FLOW OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z6 (DTG 210155Z4), 210900Z2 (DTG 210755Z0), 211500Z9 (DTG
211355Z7) AND 212100Z6 (DTG 211955Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980321 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 011 RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z3 --- 16.0S7 165.1E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 165.1E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z6 --- 16.9S6 165.5E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 18.2S1 166.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 19.5S5 166.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.8S0 167.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 23.8S3 166.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z6 POSITION 16.2S9  165.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 202024Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
CI4.0. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FROM OUR LAST WARNING DUE
TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST STEERING TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P (YALI) FURTHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS FORECAST TO PEAK DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z2 (DTG 210755Z0), 211500Z9 (DTG 211355Z7), 212100Z6
(211955Z3),AND 220300Z7 (DTG 220155Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980321 09:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 012A COR
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z9 --- 16.5S2 165.8E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S2 165.8E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z2 --- 17.5S3 166.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z0 --- 19.0S0 167.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z3 --- 20.6S8 167.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z1 --- 22.0S4 167.6E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z2 --- 23.5S0 166.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION 16.8S5  166.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI4.5. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING NEAR
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z9 (DTG 211355Z7), 212100Z6 (DTG
211955Z3), 220300Z7 (DTG 220155Z5), AND 220900Z3 (DTG 220755Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION: CHANGE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980321 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z6 --- 16.8S5 166.1E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 095 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 166.1E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z4 --- 17.8S6 166.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 18.9S8 167.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.1S3 167.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.3S6 168.1E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 23.4S9 167.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 211130Z8
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST 09 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY
THROUGH 36 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BUILD IN SOUTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT NEAR
THE 36 HOUR POINT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE
SYSTEM MORE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL TRANSITION
TO TWELVE-HOURLY WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z7
(DTG 220155Z5) AND 221500Z0 (DTG 221355Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980322 03:00z COR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z4 --- 17.9S7 167.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 167.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z7 --- 19.0S0 168.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.3S5 168.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.4S7 168.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.1S5 167.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z7 POSITION 18.2S1  168.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 212330Z1 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 212009Z4
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI5.0. TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P (YALI) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS THEN BEGIN A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z0 (DTG 221355Z8) AND 230300Z8 (DTG 230155Z6). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR
COR: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980322 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- 19.5S5 168.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 168.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.8S0 169.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.7S0 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.5S9 168.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 23.1S6 167.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 24.0S6 163.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AUGMENTED BY 220916Z0
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM HAS LESSENED SLIGHTLY IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DURING THE SAME TIME. NO CHANGE TO
FORECAST REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN SLOW AND
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE AFTER 24 HOURS. WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON 220916Z0 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z8 (DTG 230155Z6) AND 231500Z1 (DTG 231355Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980322 15:00z AMD
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 015A AMENDED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z7 --- 19.5S5 168.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 168.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z5 --- 20.6S8 170.0E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 21.7S0 170.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.4S8 169.4E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 22.9S3 168.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 23.4S9 166.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS.
THE AMENDED WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 221542Z6 DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF CI4.5 (77 KNOTS). ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH PRONOUNCED TRANSVERSE
BANDING, INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG WIND SPEEDS. IT IS BELIEVED
THAT THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL RESULTED IN AN EJECTION OF EXCESS MASS
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CORE, SOMEWHAT DISPERSING THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL HEAT ANOMALY. AT THE SAME TIME THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INDUCED MODERATE SHEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM,
DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH REGENERATION OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO ITS SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z8 (230155Z6) AND 231500Z1 (231355Z9). REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: TO LOWER WARNING
INTENSITY AND CHANGE FORECAST TRACK.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980323 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z5 --- 20.6S8 169.9E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 169.9E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z8 --- 22.0S4 170.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 23.0S5 169.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 23.8S3 168.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 24.4S0 167.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z8 POSITION 20.9S1  170.0E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND 221956Z5 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF CI3.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 12-HOURS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE
29P (YALI) IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE ENVIRONMENTAL
STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST FOR 29P (YALI) IS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z1 (DTG 231355Z9) AND 240300Z9
(DTG 240155Z7). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980323 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z8 --- 21.9S2 169.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 169.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z6 --- 22.9S3 168.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 23.6S1 167.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 24.0S6 166.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 24.4S0 164.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 24.8S4 162.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 231200Z8 SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM ILS DE
PINS (WMO NUMBER 91596) AND MATTHEW ISLAND (WMO NUMBER 91598).
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION 75 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST
REASONING. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
DOMINANT ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DISSIPATE BY THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z8 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 (DTG 240155Z7) AND
241500Z2 (DTG 241355Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980324 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z6 --- 24.2S8 164.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S8 164.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z9 --- 25.1S8 160.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 26.1S9 157.8E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 28.4S4 155.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 31.1S5 155.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION 24.4S0 163.7E7.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED DESPITE MODERATE WIND SHEER
FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 22 KNOTS, SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 232330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO A RE-EVALUATION OF THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND THE SYSTEM'S INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS IT IS STEERED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW
AND TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR PERIODS
DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
NORTH AND EAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD
MOVEMENT.  TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENTERS AN AREA WITH
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEER AS THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 19 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z2
(DTG 241355Z0) AND 250300Z0 (DTG 250155Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980324 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241200Z9 --- 24.5S1 162.9E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            010 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S1 162.9E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z7 --- 24.8S4 161.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 25.2S9 160.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 25.9S6 158.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 27.9S8 157.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION 24.6S2  162.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
241130Z1 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 (DTG 250155Z8) AND 251500Z3 (DTG 251355Z1).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980325 03:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 020
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z7 --- 25.1S8 161.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            150 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S8 161.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z0 --- 25.8S5 159.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            140 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 26.5S3 158.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 27.7S6 157.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 29.3S4 156.9E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION 25.3S0 161.0E8.
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND HAS INCREASED
ITS FORWARD MOTION SLIGHTLY TO 12 KNOTS.  THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 242330Z4 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WARNING
INTENSITY AND CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 241208Z7
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS
FORMED ABOVE TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P.  DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM, TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE SYSTEM
IS STEERED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT THE
24 HOUR PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7
IS 18 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 (DTG 251355Z1) AND
260300Z1 (DTG 260155Z9). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P
(NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980325 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 021
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z0 --- 25.9S6 160.3E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S6 160.3E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z8 --- 26.6S4 158.9E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 27.7S6 157.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 29.3S4 156.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 31.5S9 156.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION 26.1S9  159.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON A 251130Z ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BE VERY LARGE IN SIZE AND IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) TO ITS NORTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS MOTION IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A
TIGHTLY WRAPPED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REMAIN THIS WAY WITH COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING SLOW WEAKENING TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 (DTG 260155Z9) AND 261500Z4
(DTG 261355Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980326 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 022
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z8 --- 26.0S8 158.5E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S8 158.5E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z1 --- 26.0S8 157.4E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 200 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 26.4S2 156.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 27.0S9 156.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 27.8S7 156.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION 26.0S8  158.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON A 252330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 251855Z6 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATE USING VISUAL IMAGERY
AND THE PATTERN OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES. TC 29P (YALI) IS A BROAD
AREA WITH AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND THEN TURN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P
(YALI) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 261500Z4 (DTG 261355Z2) AND 270300Z2 (DTG 270155Z0). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES
.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980326 15:00z AMD
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 023A AMENDED
AND RELOCATED
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z1 --- 27.0S9 158.3E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 190 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S9 158.3E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z9 --- 28.6S6 158.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 30.2S5 158.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z0 --- 32.3S8 160.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
REANALYSIS OF 261130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
THIS AMENDED WARNING POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF
261241Z6 SCATTEROMETER DATA. WARNING INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED
BUT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER 70 NM SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS BEING VERTICALLY SHEARED. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS EAST. AFTER 24 HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTER AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE AS
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POSITION
DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 (DTG 270155Z) AND 271500Z5 (DTG
271355Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR
AMENDMENT: TO RELOCATE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
AND MODIFY FORECAST TRACK.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 980327 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) WARNING NR 024
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   270000Z9 --- 30.3S6 158.2E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.3S6 158.2E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z2 --- 34.2S9 159.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION 31.3S7  158.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 29P (YALI) IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS. THE
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 262330Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEMS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
ELONGATED DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 29P (YALI) HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL NEAR THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 17 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (NATHAN)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_yali_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016