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Tropical Cyclone LUSI : JTWC Advisories
Season 1997-1998 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone LUSI Track Map and Data

WTPS21 PGTW 971008 05:30z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080530Z OCT 97//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY AND
AMEMBASSY HONIARA SOLOMON ISLANDS
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS OF 7.9S6 170.0E8 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS.  METSAT IMAGERY AT 080430Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S8 170.0E8.  THE
SYSTEM IS QUASISTATIONARY.
4. REMARKS:
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST 6-HOURS.  A SPIRAL LOW-LEVEL INFLOW PATTERN
HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
5. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 090521Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971008 21:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST
GU 080521Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 080530)
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- 6.7S3 168.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.7S3 168.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 7.2S9 167.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 8.1S9 167.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 9.2S1 167.2E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 10.4S5 167.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
082000Z0 POSITION  6.8S4  168.4E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC
APPROXIMATELY 300NM NORTHEAST OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND
(WMO 91541).  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 081730Z9 AND ERS2 SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 072245Z0 AND 081122Z4. INITIAL INTENSITY
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT (3EST7) OF OVER 30 KNOTS AND
A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. FORECAST
IS FOR A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHILE
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES OUT
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
MANOP TIME SHOULD HAVE READ 082100Z1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5). THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
080521Z OCT 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 080530).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971009 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- 8.2S0 169.0E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S0 169.0E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 8.8S6 169.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 9.4S3 169.2E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 10.2S3 169.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 11.1S3 169.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION  8.4S2  169.0E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 4
KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
090530Z7 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
FIX ON AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. TC 02P IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
24 HOUR POSITION. AFTERWARDS, AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-
LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD DRAW THE TC FURTHER SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE 48 HOUR POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND 100900Z0 (DTG
100751Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971009 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- 9.4S3 170.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 170.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 10.6S7 172.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 11.6S8 173.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            020 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 12.6S9 174.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 13.4S8 175.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION  9.7S6  171.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAME SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER
STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS; THEN UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THIS SYSTEM
AND INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT WIND RADII.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 102100Z4
(DTG 101951Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971010 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- 13.2S6 171.7E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 171.7E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 15.7S3 172.1E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 17.6S4 172.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 19.4S4 172.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 21.1S4 173.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION 13.8S2  171.8E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 18
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
100530Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 100000Z SHIP
OBSERVATION LOCATED AT 12.6S 168.6E. TC 02P (LUSI) IS
FORECAST TO SLOW AS ITS FORWARD MOTION IS HINDERED BY
RIDGING DEVELOPING TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971010 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- 16.0S7 172.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 172.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 18.9S8 173.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            025 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 22.0S4 174.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 25.4S1 174.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 28.6S6 176.0E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION 16.7S4  173.0E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON 101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND
RADII ARE BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAME SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS IN STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGIN TO SHEAR IT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971011 09:00z CORRECTED
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 006A CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- 17.9S7 174.3E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 174.3E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 20.4S6 175.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 22.9S3 175.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 25.5S2 175.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 28.0S0 176.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION 18.5S4  174.5E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS. THE WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON
110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT WIND RADII
ARE ADJUSTED FOR A 101800Z0 SHIP OBSERVATION LOCATED AT
16.5S 176.0N. TC 02P IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES, AS WELL AS BECOMING MORE INFLUENCED BY
LOWER LEVEL STEERING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG
111951Z8) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).
JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTED CYCLONE NUMBER AND SPEED IN
REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971011 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- 19.2S2 176.7E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 176.7E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 20.6S8 178.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 22.9S3 179.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 25.2S9 179.4E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z3 --- 27.8S7 178.4W0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION 19.5S5  177.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, SCATTEROMETER DATA 11/1124Z0)
AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM NANDI/NADI INTL, FIJI (WMO 91680).
THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A CLEARLY DEFINED
CIRCULATION AT 18.4S3 175.6E9.  THIS POSITION WAS USED TO
DETERMINE BOTH SPEED AND MOTION FOR THIS 18Z WARNING.
FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION
AFTER THE 12 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AS TC 02P (LUSI) IS
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THIS
INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
WEST.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE 36
TO 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 20 FEET.  NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG
120751Z6) AND 122100Z6 (DTG 121951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 971012 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- 23.8S3 177.9E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 177.9E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 28.1S1 179.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION 24.9S5  178.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (LUSI) HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_lusi_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016