http://australiasevereweather.com/


 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 05:28:44 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


It just started raining !
----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 8:28 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely


> Hi every1,
>
> Sorry Bussy :))
>
> But we've equalled our lowest Jan on record....zero again...
>
> Oh well...that's not that unusual for January in Wycheproof....in fact I
> think there are only five months of the year where zero isn't the lowest
> ever recorded...:((
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin  at  Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> >Date: Fri, 31 Jan 2003 19:43:19 +1100
> >
> >Sorry for the one liner but, 0.2 here for January. You guys are getting
> >drowned!
> >----- Original Message -----
> > at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 7:09 AM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> >
> >
> > > yes - we are actually about 15 or so K's inland  at  Redcliffe and in
my
> > > experience would generally get less rainfall than Redcliffe.  Though
the
> > > tracking of one storm can make a big difference when the totals are so
> >low.
> > > Redcliffe would normally get more storms than us as well.  The worst
of
> >the
> > > storms seem to track South of here and cross the Redcliffe Peninsula
or
> > > track North of here and head up through the Caboolture area.  Our 24
mm
> >fell
> > > in the first couple of days in January.  But you are right it is
> >certainly
> > > better than nothing !
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >  at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 12:22 AM
> > > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi third(?)
> > > >
> > > > An interesting post as it demonstrates the advantage that coastal
> > > > communities have when it comes to showers  at  light on-shore
> >conditions.
> > > > Yet the 99 year Redcliffe mean of 115mm for Jan seems stangely low
> > > compared
> > > > to Brisbane airport at 158mm for Jan, and also Redcliffe for Feb at
> >152mm.
> > > > I wonder if the 115 is not a error in the BoM site data as it would
> >seem
> > > 155
> > > > or 165 would be a rather more likely figure.  Then again, even with
> >100
> > > > years worth of data, a few heavy falls may really skew the mean.
> >Highest
> > > > recorded Jan rain for Redcliffe is listed as only 445mm cf Ipswich
at
> > > 780mm,
> > > > Brisbane Airport  at  804mm and Brisbane city  at  872mm.
> > > >
> > > > I wish we had received your 24mm, it would have made a significant
> > > > difference to the state of some of the vegetation around here...
> > > >
> > > > John.
> > > > >snip
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > >  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of third
> > > > Sent: Thursday, January 30, 2003 6:29 PM
> > > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > We got a little rain that you didn't here in Petrie - My total for
the
> > > month
> > > > is 24mm.  The lowest on record for January at the nearest BOM
station
> >at
> > > > Redcliffe is 19.8mm. Mean 115.5.  (My lawn looks like it does in the
> > > middle
> > > > of winter !!)
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > >  at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Thursday, January 30, 2003 1:21 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hi All,
> > > > >
> > > > > At Mt. Crosby we are just 48 hours away  at  scoring a record
> >monthly
> > > low
> > > > > rainfall, with the total for the month still sitting at Nil.  Not
a
> > > single
> > > > > measurable drop since Dec 26th.  Previous record low for Jan is
> >10.9mm
> > > > > (Ipswich), and the forecast is remaining fine...
> > > > >
> > > > > All pretty amazing when you consider that January is normally our
> > > wettest
> > > > > month with a long term mean of 125mm.  For this drought, this is
now
> >the
> > > > > worst month yet experienced in terms of missing rainfall.   There
> >are
> > > some
> > > > > very sick looking trees around.
> > > > >
> > > > > John.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 08:53:35 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


i see the reamains of TC beni are heading to the great land of OZ at a great
rate of knots!
(just as predicted - I remember seeing that happen once before)
LOL
Cheers
Brian
http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/otherdat.htm


----- Original Message -----
 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 01, 2003 8:28 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely


> It just started raining !
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 8:28 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
>
>
> > Hi every1,
> >
> > Sorry Bussy :))
> >
> > But we've equalled our lowest Jan on record....zero again...
> >
> > Oh well...that's not that unusual for January in Wycheproof....in fact I
> > think there are only five months of the year where zero isn't the lowest
> > ever recorded...:((
> >
> > Cheers,
> > Kevin  at  Wycheproof.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
> > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > >Date: Fri, 31 Jan 2003 19:43:19 +1100
> > >
> > >Sorry for the one liner but, 0.2 here for January. You guys are getting
> > >drowned!
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > > at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 7:09 AM
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > >
> > >
> > > > yes - we are actually about 15 or so K's inland  at  Redcliffe and
in
> my
> > > > experience would generally get less rainfall than Redcliffe.  Though
> the
> > > > tracking of one storm can make a big difference when the totals are
so
> > >low.
> > > > Redcliffe would normally get more storms than us as well.  The worst
> of
> > >the
> > > > storms seem to track South of here and cross the Redcliffe Peninsula
> or
> > > > track North of here and head up through the Caboolture area.  Our 24
> mm
> > >fell
> > > > in the first couple of days in January.  But you are right it is
> > >certainly
> > > > better than nothing !
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > >  at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 12:22 AM
> > > > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hi third(?)
> > > > >
> > > > > An interesting post as it demonstrates the advantage that coastal
> > > > > communities have when it comes to showers  at  light on-shore
> > >conditions.
> > > > > Yet the 99 year Redcliffe mean of 115mm for Jan seems stangely low
> > > > compared
> > > > > to Brisbane airport at 158mm for Jan, and also Redcliffe for Feb
at
> > >152mm.
> > > > > I wonder if the 115 is not a error in the BoM site data as it
would
> > >seem
> > > > 155
> > > > > or 165 would be a rather more likely figure.  Then again, even
with
> > >100
> > > > > years worth of data, a few heavy falls may really skew the mean.
> > >Highest
> > > > > recorded Jan rain for Redcliffe is listed as only 445mm cf Ipswich
> at
> > > > 780mm,
> > > > > Brisbane Airport  at  804mm and Brisbane city  at  872mm.
> > > > >
> > > > > I wish we had received your 24mm, it would have made a significant
> > > > > difference to the state of some of the vegetation around here...
> > > > >
> > > > > John.
> > > > > >snip
> > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > >  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of third
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, January 30, 2003 6:29 PM
> > > > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > We got a little rain that you didn't here in Petrie - My total for
> the
> > > > month
> > > > > is 24mm.  The lowest on record for January at the nearest BOM
> station
> > >at
> > > > > Redcliffe is 19.8mm. Mean 115.5.  (My lawn looks like it does in
the
> > > > middle
> > > > > of winter !!)
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > >  at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> > > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, January 30, 2003 1:21 AM
> > > > > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Hi All,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > At Mt. Crosby we are just 48 hours away  at  scoring a record
> > >monthly
> > > > low
> > > > > > rainfall, with the total for the month still sitting at Nil.
Not
> a
> > > > single
> > > > > > measurable drop since Dec 26th.  Previous record low for Jan is
> > >10.9mm
> > > > > > (Ipswich), and the forecast is remaining fine...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > All pretty amazing when you consider that January is normally
our
> > > > wettest
> > > > > > month with a long term mean of 125mm.  For this drought, this is
> now
> > >the
> > > > > > worst month yet experienced in terms of missing rainfall.
There
> > >are
> > > > some
> > > > > > very sick looking trees around.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > John.
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> > >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > >your
> > > > >  message.
> > > > >
> > >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> > >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
> > Tired of spam? Get advanced junk mail protection with MSN 8.
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> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall likely
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 10:05:44 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Bussy and everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We only got 8.5 mm for January at Mona Vale NSW, 
does anyone know what the previous lowest rainfall for the northern beaches or 
could this be the lowest.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The grass is brown now and those who water their 
grass are getting so obvious.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy Mayo</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Steven Williams" <nzstorm at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Cc: "Steven Williams" <nzstorm at ihug.co.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Bushfire smoke
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 12:32:12 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: " bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At first glance it looks like an overcast layer of 
cirrostratus, but closer inspection fails to detect a halo.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We are not used to such polluted looking skies in 
NZ, but everytime there is a major bush fire event in Australia</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>we seem to get the smoke in our atmosphere.&nbsp; 
Makes sunset and sunrise particularly colourful.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steven 
williams(Auckland)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather at Seven Hills
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 11:45:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My observations for January 2003 may be seen at 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://wthrman.com/012003.htm">http://wthrman.com/012003.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and for all years in January </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://wthrman.com/jan.htm">http://wthrman.com/jan.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall!!
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 12:50:37 +1000
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<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=335334402-01022003>Hi 
All,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=335334402-01022003></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=335334402-01022003>Well 
for Mt. Crosby at least Nil is my recorded rainfall for Jan, as I record  at  
midnight to midnight.&nbsp; However it has indeed started raining, if you can 
call a tiny pricking off/on ultralight drizzle rain.&nbsp; 2.4mm in the guage as 
at 9:00am, which still cleans up the record for the driest&nbsp;January in this 
part of the world...&nbsp; Will be interesting to see what Amberley 
reports.&nbsp; I suspect many centres in SEQ will have recorded their driest 
ever January.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=335334402-01022003></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=335334402-01022003>John.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=335334402-01022003>&gt;snip</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=335334402-01022003></SPAN><FONT face=Tahoma><BR><FONT 
size=2><SPAN class=335334402-01022003><FONT color=#0000ff 
face=Arial>&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN>-----Original Message-----<BR><B> at :</B> 
aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Adam 
Mayo<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 9:06 AM<BR><B>To:</B> 
aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Record low Jan rainfall 
likely<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"></FONT>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Bussy and everyone,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We only got 8.5 mm for January at Mona Vale NSW, 
  does anyone know what the previous lowest rainfall for the northern beaches or 
  could this be the lowest.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The grass is brown now and those who water their 
  grass are getting so obvious.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy Mayo</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Wishful Thinking
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 16:27:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dear All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We just went outside to farewell a visitor and 
discovered that the ants are very busy building a dirt wall around&nbsp;their 
hole in the ground.&nbsp; We haven't actually seen any evidence of ant activity 
for months now.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Do they know something,&nbsp; I hope 
so!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: January results
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 16:21:05 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>January results are&nbsp;here if interested for 
Morphett Vale, Adelaide.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumjanuary2003.htm">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumjanuary2003.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I thought January was going to pass by&nbsp;without 
any rainfall until the 29th/30th came by &amp; got a total of 22mm 
:)</FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Wishful Thinking
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 16:57:19 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I hope so Judy! Might explain why the ants in Kings 
Langley have vacated their free 12 month periodical tenancy of my 
kitchen..!!</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 4:27 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Wishful Thinking</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dear All,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We just went outside to farewell a visitor and 
  discovered that the ants are very busy building a dirt wall around&nbsp;their 
  hole in the ground.&nbsp; We haven't actually seen any evidence of ant 
  activity for months now.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Do they know something,&nbsp; I hope 
  so!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather at Seven Hills
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 19:06:47 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Dummy asks, What's the return period mean? Tried several times 
to work out what it meant. I bet it's obvious :-)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith 
  Barnett</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Weather list</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 11:45 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather at Seven 
  Hills</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My observations for January 2003 may be seen at 
  </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://wthrman.com/012003.htm">http://wthrman.com/012003.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and for all years in January </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://wthrman.com/jan.htm">http://wthrman.com/jan.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
  musician<BR>Website: <A 
  href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
  free.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather at Seven Hills
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 19:10:20 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT size=2>No, that's not a silly question. Broadly speaking, it's how 
often we might expect the particular event to recur. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 7:06 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather at Seven 
  Hills</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Dummy asks, What's the return period mean? Tried several 
  times to work out what it meant. I bet it's obvious :-)</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith 
    Barnett</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Weather list</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 11:45 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather at Seven 
    Hills</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My observations for January 2003 may be seen at 
    </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://wthrman.com/012003.htm">http://wthrman.com/012003.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>and for all years in January </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://wthrman.com/jan.htm">http://wthrman.com/jan.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
    musician<BR>Website: <A 
    href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
    message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be 
    virus free.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 20:02:40 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
work?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 22:12:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right now 
the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The stick is 
about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one day taking 
photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain started I saw the 
stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry weather with not much 
humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the picture the slight bowing in 
the stick never straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to her 
and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of joke 
about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no rain.&nbsp; But 
other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the air begins to dry out 
afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward position, we really have no idea 
how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, 
or become soft and to touch it is very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the 
time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 8:02 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
  work?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
  href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Shuttle & Crew Lost!
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 03:01:23 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Space&nbsp;Shuttle Columbia&nbsp;and crew 
lost!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Columbia shuttle breaks up over Texas</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.cnn.com/">http://www.cnn.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is no joke!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:((((((((((((((((((</FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Shuttle & Crew Lost!
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 03:16:15 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>More info here</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/home/main100.shtml">http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/home/main100.shtml</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.foxnews.com/">http://www.foxnews.com/</A></FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=stargazer at picknowl.com.au 
  href="mailto:stargazer at picknowl.com.au">Stargazer</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 3:01 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Shuttle &amp; Crew 
  Lost!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Space&nbsp;Shuttle Columbia&nbsp;and crew 
  lost!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Columbia shuttle breaks up over Texas</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.cnn.com/">http://www.cnn.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is no joke!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:((((((((((((((((((</FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>
  <DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
  href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Shuttle & Crew Lost!
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 03:46:56 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mission Status Center - Live Updates!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/status.html">http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/status.html</A></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=stargazer at picknowl.com.au 
  href="mailto:stargazer at picknowl.com.au">Stargazer</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 3:16 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Shuttle &amp; Crew 
  Lost!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>More info here</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/home/main100.shtml">http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/home/main100.shtml</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.foxnews.com/">http://www.foxnews.com/</A></FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV>
  <DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
  href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=stargazer at picknowl.com.au 
    href="mailto:stargazer at picknowl.com.au">Stargazer</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Weather</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 3:01 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Shuttle &amp; Crew 
    Lost!</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Space&nbsp;Shuttle Columbia&nbsp;and crew 
    lost!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Columbia shuttle breaks up over Texas</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://www.cnn.com/">http://www.cnn.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is no joke!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:((((((((((((((((((</FONT></DIV><FONT 
    face=Arial size=2>
    <DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
    href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Brooker, Sean SD" <Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Information: shuttle down
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 04:24:08 +1100 
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
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<BODY>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=218332217-01022003>Have just been sent 
this image of shuttle</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif">http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=218332217-01022003><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV></BODY></HTML>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Arial">EOM </FONT></P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Arial">NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein.  If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message.</FONT></P>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Information: shuttle down
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 07:19:26 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
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<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Another radar image showing the same</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://newj18.vwh.net/girone/columbia-debris-trail-kpoe-1935z.gif">http://newj18.vwh.net/girone/columbia-debris-trail-kpoe-1935z.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com 
  href="mailto:Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com">Brooker, Sean SD</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 3:54 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Information: shuttle 
  down</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=218332217-01022003>Have just been 
  sent this image of shuttle</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif">http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=218332217-01022003><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>EOM </FONT></P><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may 
  contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege 
  intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended 
  recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended 
  recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that 
  any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly 
  forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have 
  received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete 
  the message.</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 07:50:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The nearest thing I have to a weather stick is the plastic red 
indian in my house, which has a piece of impregnated blotting paper, and the 
following caption:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>'Apon blue</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Sky is too</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Apron pink</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Weather stink'</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>(The blue being due to the absorption of moisture by the 
cobalt chloride impregnation)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
  stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
  seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right now 
  the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The stick 
  is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one day 
  taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain started I 
  saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry weather with not 
  much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the picture the slight 
  bowing in the stick never straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
  interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to 
  her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of 
  joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no 
  rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the air 
  begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward position, we 
  really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to absorb much 
  moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is very hard and 
  dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
  e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 8:02 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
    work?</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
    href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
  Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Information: shuttle down
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 08:11:23 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Looped radar image showing the same 
also.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Debris  at  the Space Shuttle Columbia was being 
picked up by National <BR>Weather Service Doppler Radars in Texas and Louisiana 
this morning:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.rap.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/neilley/NIDS_archive?Radar=SHV&amp;Composite=NONE&amp;Start_date=20030201&amp;Start_time=13&amp;Duration=480&amp;Frequency=0&amp;Parameter=1">http://www.rap.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/neilley/NIDS_archive?Radar=SHV&amp;Composite=NONE&amp;Start_date=20030201&amp;Start_time=13&amp;Duration=480&amp;Frequency=0&amp;Parameter=1</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=stargazer at picknowl.com.au 
  href="mailto:stargazer at picknowl.com.au">Stargazer</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:19 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Information: shuttle 
  down</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Another radar image showing the same</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://newj18.vwh.net/girone/columbia-debris-trail-kpoe-1935z.gif">http://newj18.vwh.net/girone/columbia-debris-trail-kpoe-1935z.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
  href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com 
    href="mailto:Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com">Brooker, Sean SD</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 3:54 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Information: shuttle 
    down</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=218332217-01022003>Have just been 
    sent this image of shuttle</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif">http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kshv/latest.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=218332217-01022003><FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV><BR>
    <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>EOM </FONT></P><BR>
    <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may 
    contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege 
    intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended 
    recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the 
    intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error 
    and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is 
    strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you 
    have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and 
    delete the message.</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Weather Sticks ????  THE TRADITIONAL STORY
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 09:34:41 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<HTML><HEAD>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Bussy, Keith and Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here is the traditional story about the weather 
stick.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B></B>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Judith 
Mayo</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:43 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Weather Stick</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy - Here we go with the legend. It is rather 
lengthy but well worth reading about.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Long ago, through the mists of time live 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dee Gree, the Seeker, who constantly sought answers 
to his questions. Why, where and how were the words he lived by. The ansers to 
his questions provided many benefits to his people.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dee Gree had a daughter Mercury, a truly wonderful 
child who had a very special power. Mercury could predict the weather. She could 
tell when it would rain, when the sun would shine, or as was most often the 
case, when it might do a little of both.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dee Gree was very fond of Mercury and fairly 
imagined that the sun rose and set upon her. However misfortune befell the 
Seeker. One tragic day an unexpected and extremely violent storm arose, and poor 
Mercury, even though she had seen it coming, was swept away in the torrent and 
drowned.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dee Gree was overwrought but he vowed that he would 
find the answer to Mercury's power, and thus prevent similar tragedy for his 
people. His fevered quest caused great upheaval in the land. He sought high, he 
sought low, and she sought everywhere for weeks and months without rest, until 
finally Mother Nature itself, wishing for some peace and quiet should at Dee 
Gree, "Go Climb aTree".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dee Gree in his fervor heard "Climate Tree" and was 
reminded of the special tree with the finger like branches growing by his 
daughter's bedroom window. After much study and contemplation Dee Gree saw the 
answer; up for the sun and down for the rain. At last he understood his poor 
daughter's secret. Now you too can obtain some degree of insight into what 
tomorrow will bring since Mercury's secret has been passed on the Round Barn and 
they have created "The Weatherstick".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It should be noted that since the time of Dee Gree 
history records that no man's daughter has been swept away who had the wisdom to 
have a Weatherstick attached to his door and paid heed to its 
message.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Well there is the "legend" but as to how the stick 
actually works your guess is as good as mine. All I know is that it predicts the 
weather better than the weatherman. It is made here in Ontario. The address of 
the company who makes it is&nbsp; The Round Tree, Thessalon, Ontario Canada P0R 
1L0. They may be able to give some anwers for you. I don't have an email for 
them.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Our weather is a bit warmer - actually coming to 0 
degrees which is warm for us. It is supposed to be about 0 to minus 5 for the 
next week.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: JAN. 2003:
Date: Sat, 1 Feb 2003 19:16:20 -0600
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'February to All! Heres the weather for January, 
2003* in Mena, Arkansas.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>Avg. High: 48.3F(6.8C)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>Avg. Low: 27.9F(-3.2C)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; High: 68F(20.0C) 
Jan 8</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Low: 
11F(-11.6C) Jan 24</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>Rain For Month: 0.20IN(5.0mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face=Verdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
(-2.50IN/-63.5mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana>Rain For Year: 0.20IN(5.0mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face=Verdana>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
(-2.50IN/-63.5mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>*Readings are for 24 days. I was in hospital, so no 
readings for Jan 15-16 and 18-22.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A very, very dry month as measureable rain was 
recorded on only 1 day-the 14th. Trace of rain on the 29th. Brief Snow flurries 
on the 12th and 15th.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hoping All have a Wonderful Month Yours David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 18:59:23 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
X-Mailer: IncrediMail 2001 (1800838)
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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To: "weather mailing list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 'the smoke'
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV>richard </DIV>
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Embedded Content: IMSTP73.gif: 00000001,44dc26a6,00000000,00000000
 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 19:57:11 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this little 
house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man came out or 
dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not sure. Anyone else 
have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
  stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
  seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right now 
  the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The stick 
  is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one day 
  taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain started I 
  saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry weather with not 
  much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the picture the slight 
  bowing in the stick never straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
  interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to 
  her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of 
  joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no 
  rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the air 
  begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward position, we 
  really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to absorb much 
  moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is very hard and 
  dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
  e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 8:02 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
    work?</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
    href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
  Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 20:09:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT size=2>I have one myself. It's called a 'weather house'. When it's 
supposed to be going to rain, a man with an umbrella comes out. If it's supposed 
to be fine, a lady comes out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I suspect it also works on humidity; the degree of moisture 
causing a sensitive thread to lengthen or shorten, activating a mechanical 
device that's attached to the common platform shared by the man and the woman. 
As it turns one way or the other, so the man or woman comes out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I found a trap though with these. The instructions for use say 
'only adjust once' (you do that by turning the chimney top on the house, which 
supports the mechanism). I found that doing it again (or if someone starts 
playing with it etc) for some reason renders the whole thing totally inaccurate 
(relative to the accuracy it had in the first place).</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it on.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this 
  little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man 
  came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not 
  sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
    sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
    stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
    seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right 
    now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The 
    stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one 
    day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain 
    started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry 
    weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the 
    picture the slight bowing in the stick never straightens right 
    out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
    interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to 
    her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of 
    joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no 
    rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the 
    air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward 
    position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to 
    absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is 
    very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
    e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
      <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
      8:02 PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
      sticks???</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
      work?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
      href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
    Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 20:11:16 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Further to my previous post, Admiral FitzRoy's Storm Barometer 
is another curious (and apparently extremely unreliable) oddity.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it on.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this 
  little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man 
  came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not 
  sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
    sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
    stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
    seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right 
    now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The 
    stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one 
    day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain 
    started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry 
    weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the 
    picture the slight bowing in the stick never straightens right 
    out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
    interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to 
    her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of 
    joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no 
    rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the 
    air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward 
    position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to 
    absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is 
    very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
    e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
      <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
      8:02 PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
      sticks???</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
      work?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
      href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
    Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 20:22:11 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT size=2>Can you still get them? I'd love to be able to show my kids 
and others as they think I was dreaming :-)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith 
  Barnett</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 8:09 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I have one myself. It's called a 'weather house'. When it's 
  supposed to be going to rain, a man with an umbrella comes out. If it's 
  supposed to be fine, a lady comes out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I suspect it also works on humidity; the degree of moisture 
  causing a sensitive thread to lengthen or shorten, activating a mechanical 
  device that's attached to the common platform shared by the man and the woman. 
  As it turns one way or the other, so the man or woman comes out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I found a trap though with these. The instructions for use 
  say 'only adjust once' (you do that by turning the chimney top on the house, 
  which supports the mechanism). I found that doing it again (or if someone 
  starts playing with it etc) for some reason renders the whole thing totally 
  inaccurate (relative to the accuracy it had in the first place).</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:57 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
    sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it 
    on.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this 
    little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man 
    came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not 
    sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
      <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
      10:12 PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
      sticks???</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
      stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it 
      does seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right 
      now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; 
      The stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the 
      deck one day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the 
      rain started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really 
      dry weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like 
      the picture the slight bowing in the stick never straightens right 
      out.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows 
      how interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your 
      e-mail to her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that 
      we do kind of joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick 
      says no rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then 
      when the air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual 
      upward position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be 
      able to absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to 
      touch it is very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
      e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
      style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
        <DIV 
        style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
        <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
        </DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
        title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
        8:02 PM</DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
        sticks???</DIV>
        <DIV><BR></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
        work?</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
        href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
      Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 23:09:40 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Bussy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>They do work. I sell them  at  here, having imported them in 
bulk  at  the US. They are balsam fur, in other words balsa wood and you could 
easily make one yourself. Yes they absorb moisture and droop accordingly. An old 
bit of seaweed would do the same job but these look cuter. You get about 6-8 
hours weather warning  at  them. I have them all around the house. Early in the 
morning they tend to be drooped a little, due to the moisture  at  the night, so 
you allow for that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>cheers</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ken</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.predictweather.com">www.predictweather.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 9:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it on.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this 
  little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man 
  came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not 
  sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> 
</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
    sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather 
    stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does 
    seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right 
    now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The 
    stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one 
    day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain 
    started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry 
    weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the 
    picture the slight bowing in the stick never straightens right 
    out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how 
    interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to 
    her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of 
    joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no 
    rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the 
    air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward 
    position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to 
    absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is 
    very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
    e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
      <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
      8:02 PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
      sticks???</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
      work?</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
      href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
    Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 'the smoke'
Date: Sun, 2 Feb 2003 21:35:39 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR><!--IncrdiXMLRemarkStart>
<IncrdiX-Info>
<X-FID>FLAVOR00-NONE-0000-0000-000000000000</X-FID>
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<BODY 
style="BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px 0px; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 5px 10px 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" 
bgColor=#ffffff background="" scroll=yes X-FVER="3.0" ORGYPOS="0">
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Watched the smoke head&nbsp;south to lie over Bass 
Strait as well as southern Victoria and then drift west during the 
day&nbsp;-&nbsp; for sunrise &amp; sunset in Melbourne today, see the top 3 
images on my Summer photo page <A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/summer02jon.htm">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/summer02jon.htm</A>&nbsp; 
I've got more shots  at  the sunset tonight which will make it up later in the 
week.&nbsp; A number of people pulled over and were taking pics also - 2 of them 
had no idea that the smoke was the cause of the red sun!!&nbsp; I'm 
amazed.......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV><FONT size=2>
<DIV><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com">cadence at australianskynweather.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>***The journey is the reward***<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">weather mailing list</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:29 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: 'the smoke'</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <TABLE id=INCREDIMAINTABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" 
    border=0><TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD id=INCREDITEXTREGION 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; CURSOR: auto; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" width="100%">
        <DIV>havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is back.</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>richard </DIV>
        <DIV>naracoorte</DIV></TD></TR>
    <TR>
      <TD id=INCREDIFOOTER width="100%">
        <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%">
          <TBODY>
          <TR>
            <TD width="100%"></TD>
            <TD id=INCREDISOUND vAlign=bottom align=middle></TD>
            <TD id=INCREDIANIM vAlign=bottom 
      align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SPAN 
  id=IncrediStamp><SPAN dir=ltr><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" 
  size=2>____________________________________________________<BR><FONT 
  face="Comic Sans MS" size=2><A 
  href="http://www.incredimail.com/redir.asp?ad_id=309&amp;lang=9"><IMG alt="" 
  hspace=0 src="cid:006d01c2caa6$d43dd880$a6597bcb at jane" align=baseline 
  border=0></A>&nbsp; <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - 
  </FONT><A 
  href="http://www.incredimail.com/redir.asp?ad_id=309&amp;lang=9"><FONT 
  face="Times New Roman" size=3><B><U>Click 
  Here</U></B></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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Embedded Content: IMSTP81.gif: 00000001,01b93d31,00000000,00000000
User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Mon, 03 Feb 2003 00:08:12 +1200
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: aus-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: Richard Modistach emails</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
Hi All!<BR>
<BR>
I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>
I have a query about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE="5"><FONT FACE="Arial">havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is back.<BR>
 <BR>
richard <BR>
naracoorte<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
(with a flash attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR>
<FONT COLOR="#FF0000"><FONT SIZE="7"><FONT FACE="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT COLOR="#0000FF"><B><U>Click Here<BR>
</U></B></FONT><B><U><BR>
</U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR>
<BR>
Neville 
</BODY>
</HTML>



</x-html>

 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 01:07:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report
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X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - canberra-wx.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The Attachment is  at  an Email program called 
Incredimail, and is nothing to worry about.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P><SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Cheers<BR>---------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra, ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR><STRONG><FONT 
color=#ff0000>*NEW*</FONT></STRONG>- <FONT color=#999999><STRONG>A Small WAP 
service,<BR>Current wx, forecast For Canberra<BR>For mobile phones with 
WAP.</STRONG></FONT><BR><A 
href="http://wap.canberra-wx.com">http://wap.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------<BR>Proud 
member of the<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">***WEBSITE 
UPDATE***<BR>Redesign is going good, and i *could*<BR>have the new product ready 
shortly.<BR>However - Im am now playing with CSS<BR>and this means a few more 
weeks wait.<BR>the final product will be much better though!<BR></SPAN><SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">-----------------------------------------------------------------------</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz">Neville 
  Gibb</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aus-wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 11:08 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach 
  emails</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Hi All!<BR><BR>I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>I have a query 
  about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR><BR><FONT 
  size=5><FONT face=Arial>havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is 
  back.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>richard <BR>naracoorte<BR></FONT></FONT><BR>(with a flash 
  attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT 
  size=7><FONT face="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - 
  <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT color=#0000ff><B><U>Click 
  Here<BR></U></B></FONT><B><U><BR></U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my 
  immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on 
  this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct 
  assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR><BR>Neville </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 01:03:22 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Neville,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Not sure who started (spotted??? lol )&nbsp;the 
CLOUD first but for a while there back around June/July 2002&nbsp;we had a 
period of no clouds over a large area of Australia &amp; it got to the stage 
where people were keeping an eye out for any cloud to appear &amp; when it did 
reports hit the&nbsp;list here like *news headlines* (all tongue in cheek of 
course :) -&nbsp;a bit of a running joke on this list.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Photos of the elusive CLOUD&nbsp;even made it to 
some websites, eg....&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.drdisk.com.hk/images/jea410.jpg">http://www.drdisk.com.hk/images/jea410.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.drdisk.com.hk/images/THECLOUD.jpg">http://www.drdisk.com.hk/images/THECLOUD.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Oh, &amp; the "IncrediMail" thing... it's just a 
new fad for email. Using their program u can add backgrounds, animated 
pictures/characters to your every day email to *spice it up, so to speak... a 
bit of a gimmick but otherwise&nbsp;no harm.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hope this helps</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz">Neville 
  Gibb</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aus-wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 10:38 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach 
  emails</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Hi All!<BR><BR>I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>I have a query 
  about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR><BR><FONT 
  size=5><FONT face=Arial>havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is 
  back.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>richard <BR>naracoorte<BR></FONT></FONT><BR>(with a flash 
  attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT 
  size=7><FONT face="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - 
  <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT color=#0000ff><B><U>Click 
  Here<BR></U></B></FONT><B><U><BR></U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my 
  immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on 
  this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct 
  assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR><BR>Neville </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 06:22:22 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT size=2>Neville,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>life was breathed into 'The Cloud' by Michael Thompson (ASWA 
NSW) a couple / few years ago and the saga began here <A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm</A>&nbsp;and 
has been not so seriously tracked about the place ever since.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>'The Cloud' should only be worried about if it is sitting over 
you&nbsp;throwing flangs at you and you have no shelter &lt;g&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com">cadence at australianskynweather.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>***The journey is the reward***<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz">Neville 
  Gibb</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aus-wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 11:08 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach 
  emails</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Hi All!<BR><BR>I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>I have a query 
  about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR><BR><FONT 
  size=5><FONT face=Arial>havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is 
  back.<BR>&nbsp;<BR>richard <BR>naracoorte<BR></FONT></FONT><BR>(with a flash 
  attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT 
  size=7><FONT face="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - 
  <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT color=#0000ff><B><U>Click 
  Here<BR></U></B></FONT><B><U><BR></U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my 
  immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on 
  this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct 
  assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR><BR>Neville </BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 07:40:52 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm sure you can but I don't quite know where..probably a gift 
shop or a major department store.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 8:22 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Can you still get them? I'd love to be able to show my kids 
  and others as they think I was dreaming :-)</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith 
    Barnett</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 8:09 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
    sticks???</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I have one myself. It's called a 'weather house'. When 
    it's supposed to be going to rain, a man with an umbrella comes out. If it's 
    supposed to be fine, a lady comes out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I suspect it also works on humidity; the degree of 
    moisture causing a sensitive thread to lengthen or shorten, activating a 
    mechanical device that's attached to the common platform shared by the man 
    and the woman. As it turns one way or the other, so the man or woman comes 
    out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT size=2>I found a trap though with these. The instructions for use 
    say 'only adjust once' (you do that by turning the chimney top on the house, 
    which supports the mechanism). I found that doing it again (or if someone 
    starts playing with it etc) for some reason renders the whole thing totally 
    inaccurate (relative to the accuracy it had in the first 
place).</FONT></DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
      <DIV 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
      <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
      title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
      </DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:57 
      PM</DIV>
      <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
      sticks???</DIV>
      <DIV><BR></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it 
      on.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this 
      little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue 
      man came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm 
      not sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they 
      worked?</FONT></DIV>
      <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
      style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
        <DIV 
        style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
        <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> 
        </DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
        title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
        </DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
        10:12 PM</DIV>
        <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
        sticks???</DIV>
        <DIV><BR></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a 
        weather stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and 
        yes it does seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; 
        Right now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the 
        sea.&nbsp; The stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to 
        be on the deck one day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just 
        before the rain started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest 
        position, in really dry weather with not much humidity it stands almost 
        straight up, but like the picture the slight bowing in the stick never 
        straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows 
        how interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your 
        e-mail to her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that 
        we do kind of joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the 
        stick says no rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain 
        and then when the air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume 
        its usual upward position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't 
        seem to be able to absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become 
        soft and to touch it is very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the 
        time.</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your 
        e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
        style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
          <DIV 
          style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
          <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
          </DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
          title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
          href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 
          8:02 PM</DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
          sticks???</DIV>
          <DIV><BR></DIV>
          <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they 
          work?</FONT></DIV>
          <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
          href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
          <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
          <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
          Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 17:52:23 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
X-Mailer: IncrediMail 2001 (1800838)
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
X-FID: FLAVOR00-NONE-0000-0000-000000000000
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
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<DIV>jeeze, sorry about that neville, didn't realise i was hoofin' out attachments,</DIV>
<DIV>they dont&nbsp;come back to me, probably because i got incredimail.lol.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>smoke's still around, a sprinkling of Cu coming in  at  the ne,</DIV>
<DIV>nothing to get exited about, windy and mid 30s today.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Monday, 3 February 2003 5:36:44 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV><!--BLOCKQUOTE-->Thanks Jane, Paul &amp; Simon,<BR><BR>for putting me in the picture. I guess I was out of touch with the <I>Incredimail</I> thing - just looked a bit suspicious with the two different names and all (pays to be cautious). Well worth a look though.<BR><BR>Cheers <BR><BR>Neville <BR><BR><B> at : </B>"Jane ONeill" &lt;cadence at australianskynweather.com&gt;<BR><B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Date: </B>Mon, 3 Feb 2003 06:22:22 +1100<BR><B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR><BR><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><BR><!--BLOCKQUOTE--><FONT size=2>Neville,<BR></FONT><BR><FONT size=2>life was breathed into 'The Cloud' by Michael Thompson (ASWA NSW) a couple / few years ago and the saga began here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm and has been not so seriously tracked about the place ever since.<BR></FONT><BR><FONT size=2>'The Cloud' should only be worried about if it is sitting over you throwing flangs at you and you have no shelter &lt;g&gt;<BR></FONT><BR><FONT size=2>Cheers,<BR></FONT><BR><FONT size=2>Jane<BR></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR>cadence at australianskynweather.com<BR><BR>Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR>http://www.stormchasers.au.com<BR><BR>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR>http://www.severeweather.asn.au <BR><BR>***The journey is the reward***<BR>--------------------------------<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><!--BLOCKQUOTE-->----- Original Message ----- <BR><B> at :</B> Neville Gibb &lt;mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz&gt; &nbsp;<BR><B>To:</B> aus-wx &lt;mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt; &nbsp;<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 11:08 PM<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR><BR>Hi All!<BR><BR>I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>I have a query about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR><BR><FONT size=5><FONT face=Arial>havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is back.<BR><BR>richard <BR>naracoorte<BR></FONT></FORe aus-wx Re Richard Modista.ems
NT><BR>(with a flash attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR><FONT color=#ff0000><FONT size=7><FONT face="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT color=#0000ff><B><U>Click Here<BR></U></B></FONT><B><U><BR></U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR><BR>Neville <BR><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><BR><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><BR>
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Date: Mon, 03 Feb 2003 20:02:52 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<BLOCKQUOTE>Thanks Jane, Paul &amp; Simon,<BR>
<BR>
for putting me in the picture. I guess I was out of touch with the <I>Incredimail</I> thing - just looked a bit suspicious with the two different names and all (pays to be cautious). Well worth a look though.<BR>
<BR>
Cheers <BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
<BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Jane ONeill&quot; &lt;cadence at australianskynweather.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 3 Feb 2003 06:22:22 +1100<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="2">Neville,<BR>
</FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">life was breathed into 'The Cloud' by Michael Thompson (ASWA NSW) a couple / few years ago and the saga began here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm and has been not so seriously tracked about the place ever since.<BR>
</FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">'The Cloud' should only be worried about if it is sitting over you throwing flangs at you and you have no shelter &lt;g&gt;<BR>
</FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">Cheers,<BR>
</FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">Jane<BR>
</FONT><BR>
--------------------------------<BR>
Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR>
cadence at australianskynweather.com<BR>
<BR>
Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR>
http://www.stormchasers.au.com<BR>
<BR>
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR>
http://www.severeweather.asn.au <BR>
<BR>
***The journey is the reward***<BR>
--------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>----- Original Message ----- <BR>
<B> at :</B> Neville Gibb &lt;mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>To:</B> aus-wx &lt;mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 11:08 PM<BR>
<B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
<BR>
Hi All!<BR>
<BR>
I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>
I have a query about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE="5"><FONT FACE="Arial">havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is back.<BR>
<BR>
richard <BR>
naracoorte<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
(with a flash attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR>
<FONT COLOR="#FF0000"><FONT SIZE="7"><FONT FACE="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT COLOR="#0000FF"><B><U>Click Here<BR>
</U></B></FONT><B><U><BR>
</U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Mon, 03 Feb 2003 21:17:56 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails</TITLE>
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<BODY>
S'alright Richard,<BR>
<BR>
Sorry if I caused any embarrassment.<BR>
<BR>
Neville<BR>
:)<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Richard Modistach&quot; &lt;hambone at dodo.com.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 3 Feb 2003 17:52:23 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>jeeze, sorry about that neville, didn't realise i was hoofin' out attachments,<BR>
they dont come back to me, probably because i got incredimail.lol.<BR>
 <BR>
smoke's still around, a sprinkling of Cu coming in  at  the ne,<BR>
nothing to get exited about, windy and mid 30s today.<BR>
 <BR>
richard<BR>
 <BR>
<I>-------Original Message-------<BR>
</I> <BR>
<B><I> at :</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B><I>Date:</I></B> Monday, 3 February 2003 5:36:44 PM<BR>
<B><I>To:</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B><I>Subject:</I></B> Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
 <BR>
Thanks Jane, Paul &amp; Simon,<BR>
<BR>
for putting me in the picture. I guess I was out of touch with the <I>Incredimail</I> thing - just looked a bit suspicious with the two different names and all (pays to be cautious). Well worth a look though.<BR>
<BR>
Cheers <BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
<BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Jane ONeill&quot; &lt;cadence at australianskynweather.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 3 Feb 2003 06:22:22 +1100<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">Neville,<BR>
</FONT><BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">life was breathed into 'The Cloud' by Michael Thompson (ASWA NSW) a couple / few years ago and the saga began here http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm and has been not so seriously tracked about the place ever since.<BR>
</FONT><BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">'The Cloud' should only be worried about if it is sitting over you throwing flangs at you and you have no shelter &lt;g&gt;<BR>
</FONT><BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">Cheers,<BR>
</FONT><BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">Jane<BR>
</FONT><BR>
--------------------------------<BR>
Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR>
cadence at australianskynweather.com<BR>
<BR>
Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR>
http://www.stormchasers.au.com<BR>
<BR>
Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR>
http://www.severeweather.asn.au <BR>
<BR>
***The journey is the reward***<BR>
--------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
----- Original Message ----- <BR>
<B> at :</B> Neville Gibb &lt;mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>To:</B> aus-wx &lt;mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 11:08 PM<BR>
<B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Re: Richard Modistach emails<BR>
<BR>
Hi All!<BR>
<BR>
I'm fairly new to this forum. <BR>
I have a query about the following messages posted by Richard Modistach<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE="5"><FONT FACE="Arial">havn't seen 'the cloud' but 'the smoke' is back.<BR>
<BR>
richard <BR>
naracoorte<BR>
</FONT></FONT><BR>
(with a flash attachment that sort of looks like this)<BR>
<FONT COLOR="#FF0000"><FONT SIZE="7"><FONT FACE="Monotype Sorts">)</FONT></FONT></FONT> <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - <FONT COLOR="#0000FF"><B><U>Click Here<BR>
</U></B></FONT><B><U><BR>
</U></B>I've never heard of this in NZ and my immediate reaction is to dump it pronto. I've also never seen a reply to it on this forum and assume everyone else does the same. Would this be a correct assumption or am I just out of touch.<BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
 <BR>
<FONT SIZE="2">____________________________________________________<BR>
<FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"> &nbsp;<I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - </FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Times New Roman"><B><U>Click Here</U></B></FONT> <BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</BODY>
</HTML>



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Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 22:13:45 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
X-Mailer: IncrediMail 2001 (1800838)
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
X-FID: FLAVOR00-NONE-0000-0000-000000000000
X-FVER: 
X-CNT: ;
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<META content="IncrediMail 1.0" name=GENERATOR>
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<DIV>i remembered a long time ago my grandma on my dads side had one of those little houses,&nbsp;she died in the late sixties, i remember it in out house years ago but havn't seen it for a long time. rang up mum today, she's 84 going on 60, and asked her what ever happened to it, it was tucked away in a little corner of the house amoungst a lot of other stuff. she said granny had it a long time before she met dad and they got married in 1940, so that would make it around 70yrs old, genuine made in western-germany with german instructions on the back,(english too), has a thermometer in the middle in C &amp;F. it still works ok. .</DIV>
<DIV>been to hundreds of auctions, clearing sales, swapmeets, markets, garage sales ect. over the years and never seen one up for grabs.</DIV>
<DIV>it's mine now, hehe</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Monday, 3 February 2003 7:13:59 AM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I'm sure you can but I don't quite know where..probably a gift shop or a major department store.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 8:22 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Can you still get them? I'd love to be able to show my kids and others as they think I was dreaming :-)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith Barnett</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 8:09 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I have one myself. It's called a 'weather house'. When it's supposed to be going to rain, a man with an umbrella comes out. If it's supposed to be fine, a lady comes out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I suspect it also works on humidity; the degree of moisture causing a sensitive thread to lengthen or shorten, activating a mechanical device that's attached to the common platform shared by the man and the woman. As it turns one way or the other, so the man or woman comes out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I found a trap though with these. The instructions for use say 'only adjust once' (you do that by turning the chimney top on the house, which supports the mechanism). I found that doing it again (or if someone starts playing with it etc) for some reason renders the whole thing totally inaccurate (relative to the accuracy it had in the first place).</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 7:57 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad had this little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to rain the blue man came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the other way around as I'm not sure. Anyone else have one of these or know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 10:12 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me a weather stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of Hickory wood and yes it does seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our deck.&nbsp; Right now the air is very humid, we are about a kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The stick is about half way up [or down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one day taking photos of a storm that was coming and just before the rain started I saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but like the picture the slight bowing in the stick never straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since she knows how interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will actually forward your e-mail to her and perhaps she will know more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of joke about it, saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no rain.&nbsp; But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual upward position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't seem to be able to absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or become soft and to touch it is very hard and dried up feeling ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found your e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 01, 2003 8:02 PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather sticks???</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know how/why/if they work?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)</FONT></DIV><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE-->
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 at : "Peter" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 23:18:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,
      I know many posts have been made re natures signs of impending
weather, but here as of time of writing, we are getting heaps of flying
ants. In the past this has preceded significant rain. Living in Central Vic,
this is encouraging.
Cheers Peter


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 12:29:01 -0000
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After spending a month reformatting the Australian Weather News site, I've
at last got back to writing up the weather news again! First effort is at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/030202.CFM.

Each day's news page is a composite of several pages pulled together with
Coldfusion. I've tested it on IE6, Opera and Netscape 4.76, and the Netscape
on a large resolution monitor doesn't like the style sheets too much, but
the stats I'm getting indicate that <1% of users are still using pre 6.0
Netscape.  I'd be very interested in any feedback on how it appears on
different browsers/systems/screens.

Cheers

Laurier

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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather sticks???
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 02:50:35 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>They do work. They are balsam fur, in other words balsa wood 
and you could easily make one yourself. Yes they absorb moisture and droop 
accordingly. An old bit of seaweed would do the same job but these look cuter. 
You get about 6-8 hours weather warning  at  the sticks. I have them all around 
the house. Early in the morning they tend to be drooped a little, due to the 
moisture  at  the night, so you allow for that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>cheers</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ken</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.predictweather.com">www.predictweather.com</A></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 04, 2003 12:43 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
  sticks???</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <TABLE id=INCREDIMAINTABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" 
    border=0><TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD id=INCREDITEXTREGION 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; CURSOR: auto; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" width="100%">
        <DIV>i remembered a long time ago my grandma on my dads side had one of 
        those little houses,&nbsp;she died in the late sixties, i remember it in 
        out house years ago but havn't seen it for a long time. rang up mum 
        today, she's 84 going on 60, and asked her what ever happened to it, it 
        was tucked away in a little corner of the house amoungst a lot of other 
        stuff. she said granny had it a long time before she met dad and they 
        got married in 1940, so that would make it around 70yrs old, genuine 
        made in western-germany with german instructions on the back,(english 
        too), has a thermometer in the middle in C &amp;F. it still works ok. 
        .</DIV>
        <DIV>been to hundreds of auctions, clearing sales, swapmeets, markets, 
        garage sales ect. over the years and never seen one up for grabs.</DIV>
        <DIV>it's mine now, hehe</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original 
        Message-------</I></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=receivestrings>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Monday, 3 
        February 2003 7:13:59 AM</DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: 
        Weather sticks???</DIV></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2>I'm sure you can but I don't quite know 
        where..probably a gift shop or a major department store.</FONT></DIV>
        <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
        style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
          <DIV 
          style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
          <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> 
          </DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
          title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
          href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
          </DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 
          8:22 PM</DIV>
          <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
          sticks???</DIV>
          <DIV><BR></DIV>
          <DIV><FONT size=2>Can you still get them? I'd love to be able to show 
          my kids and others as they think I was dreaming :-)</FONT></DIV>
          <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
          style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
            <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
            <DIV 
            style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
            <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au 
            href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith Barnett</A> </DIV>
            <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
            title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
            href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
            </DIV>
            <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 2003 
            8:09 PM</DIV>
            <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
            sticks???</DIV>
            <DIV><BR></DIV>
            <DIV><FONT size=2>I have one myself. It's called a 'weather house'. 
            When it's supposed to be going to rain, a man with an umbrella comes 
            out. If it's supposed to be fine, a lady comes out.</FONT></DIV>
            <DIV><FONT size=2>I suspect it also works on humidity; the degree of 
            moisture causing a sensitive thread to lengthen or shorten, 
            activating a mechanical device that's attached to the common 
            platform shared by the man and the woman. As it turns one way or the 
            other, so the man or woman comes out.</FONT></DIV>
            <DIV><FONT size=2>I found a trap though with these. The instructions 
            for use say 'only adjust once' (you do that by turning the chimney 
            top on the house, which supports the mechanism). I found that doing 
            it again (or if someone starts playing with it etc) for some reason 
            renders the whole thing totally inaccurate (relative to the accuracy 
            it had in the first place).</FONT></DIV>
            <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
            style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
              <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
              <DIV 
              style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
              <A title=bussie at netc.net.au 
              href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
              <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
              title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
              href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
              </DIV>
              <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 02, 
              2003 7:57 PM</DIV>
              <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Weather 
              sticks???</DIV>
              <DIV><BR></DIV>
              <DIV><FONT size=2>That would be great if you could forward it 
              on.</FONT></DIV>
              <DIV><FONT size=2>I remember as a young kid that my mum and dad 
              had this little house thing on the shelf that when it was going to 
              rain the blue man came out or dry the pink lady came out, or the 
              other way around as I'm not sure. Anyone else have one of these or 
              know how they worked?</FONT></DIV>
              <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
              style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
                <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
</DIV>
                <DIV 
                style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
                <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam 
                Mayo</A> </DIV>
                <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
                title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
                href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
                </DIV>
                <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 
                01, 2003 10:12 PM</DIV>
                <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: 
                Weather sticks???</DIV>
                <DIV><BR></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>About 12 months ago a friend in Canada sent me 
                a weather stick.&nbsp; I think it is made  at  a piece of 
                Hickory wood and yes it does seem to "work".&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>We have it attached to the rail on our 
                deck.&nbsp; Right now the air is very humid, we are about a 
                kilometre  at  the sea.&nbsp; The stick is about half way up [or 
                down],&nbsp; I happened to be on the deck one day taking photos 
                of a storm that was coming and just before the rain started I 
                saw the stick drop down to its lowest position, in really dry 
                weather with not much humidity it stands almost straight up, but 
                like the picture the slight bowing in the stick never 
                straightens right out.</FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>She sent it to me for a bit of a joke since 
                she knows how interested I am in the weather.&nbsp; I will 
                actually forward your e-mail to her and perhaps she will know 
                more about it.&nbsp; I know that we do kind of joke about it, 
                saying that the stick says rain or the stick says no rain.&nbsp; 
                But other than saying that it indicates rain and then when the 
                air begins to dry out afterwards it begins to resume its usual 
                upward position, we really have no idea how.&nbsp; It doesn't 
                seem to be able to absorb much moisture, it doesn't swell, or 
                become soft and to touch it is very hard and dried up feeling 
                ALL of the time.</FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>I was actually quite surprised when I found 
                your e-mail.</FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
                <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
                style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
                  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
                  </DIV>
                  <DIV 
                  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
                  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au 
                  href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
                  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
                  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
                  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> 
                  </DIV>
                  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 
                  01, 2003 8:02 PM</DIV>
                  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
                  sticks???</DIV>
                  <DIV><BR></DIV>
                  <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone ever heard of these or know 
                  how/why/if they work?</FONT></DIV>
                  <DIV><FONT size=2>Just interested <A 
                  href="http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm">http://www.weatheraffects.com/2911.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
                  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
                  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
                  Victoria)</FONT></DIV><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><!--/BLOCKQUOTE-->
                  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></TD></TR>
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            <TD id=INCREDIANIM vAlign=bottom 
      align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SPAN 
  id=IncrediStamp><SPAN dir=ltr><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" 
  size=2>____________________________________________________<BR><FONT 
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  href="http://www.incredimail.com/redir.asp?ad_id=309&amp;lang=9"><IMG alt="" 
  hspace=0 src="cid:002d01c2cb8b$3a5a3c00$1d4e25ca at ken" align=baseline 
  border=0></A>&nbsp; <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - 
  </FONT><A 
  href="http://www.incredimail.com/redir.asp?ad_id=309&amp;lang=9"><FONT 
  face="Times New Roman" size=3><B><U>Click 
  Here</U></B></FONT></A></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>


Embedded Content: IMSTP85.gif: 00000001,44b2907f,00000000,00000000
 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 07:08:16 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Standby. In the next few days if the ants have it right (flying variety).

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Peter" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 03, 2003 11:18 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Flying Ants


> Hi all,
>       I know many posts have been made re natures signs of impending
> weather, but here as of time of writing, we are getting heaps of flying
> ants. In the past this has preceded significant rain. Living in Central
Vic,
> this is encouraging.
> Cheers Peter
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 06:08:55 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "R & R McKenzie" <hollyandme at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 10:37:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I hope those ants are correct, and that a bit of rain drops on us before it
gets to you...
Cheers Robyn in Ballarat

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Peter" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 03, 2003 11:18 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Flying Ants


> Hi all,
>       I know many posts have been made re natures signs of impending
> weather, but here as of time of writing, we are getting heaps of flying
> ants. In the past this has preceded significant rain. Living in Central
Vic,
> this is encouraging.
> Cheers Peter
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 10:30:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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43mm  at  Mt. Crosby for eth 24 hours to midnight last night.  Wonderful, and
it is still raining, follwing on  at  5mm on each of Sat & Sun.

Not a single wet day in Jan, and not a single dry day in Feb thus far.

John.

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of third
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:09 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Rain


51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
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---
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X-Originating-IP: [144.139.223.183]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 11:33:15 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Feb 2003 00:33:15.0966 (UTC) FILETIME=[01E6FDE0:01C2CBE5]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Laurier,
Looks good I had no problem downloading it.
Looks like 'Benni' is about to be a category 1 Cyclone off Mackay!
Gavin SSWW Canberrra






> at : "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
>Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 12:29:01 -0000
>
>After spending a month reformatting the Australian Weather News site, I've
>at last got back to writing up the weather news again! First effort is at
>http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/030202.CFM.
>
>Each day's news page is a composite of several pages pulled together with
>Coldfusion. I've tested it on IE6, Opera and Netscape 4.76, and the 
>Netscape
>on a large resolution monitor doesn't like the style sheets too much, but
>the stats I'm getting indicate that <1% of users are still using pre 6.0
>Netscape.  I'd be very interested in any feedback on how it appears on
>different browsers/systems/screens.
>
>Cheers
>
>Laurier
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________
MSN 8 with e-mail virus protection service: 2 months FREE*  
http://join.msn.com/?page=features/virus

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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 11:31:20 +1000
To: aussie-weather-list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
 at : Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone BENI approaching Mackay.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
BoM TC Advice pasted below.

Links to all warnings etc. on my website at 
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm

Regards,
Carl.

>IDQP0005
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre 
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>advice.
>
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 1050 EST on Tuesday the 4th of February 2003
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between Mackay
>and The Town Of 1770. A Cyclone WATCH extends north to Bowen.
>
>Tropical Cyclone BENI has reformed off the central Queensland coast and is
>expected to slowly intensity. Gales should develop between Mackay and the Town
>of 1770 during the afternoon.
>
>Areas of heavy rain are expected to develop south  at  Mackay later today and
>overnight.
>
>Details of  Tropical Cyclone BENI, Category 1, for 11am EST Tuesday 4 February
>2003:
>Central Pressure   : 995 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
>                      latitude 20.9 degrees south
>                      longitude 151.6 degrees east
>                      about 250 kilometres east of Mackay.
>Recent Movement    : towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour.
>      
>Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly increasing.
>
>People between Mackay and the Town of 1770 should take precautions 
>and listen to
>the next advice at 2 pm today.
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 09:33:17 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Beni is already a Cat 1 tropical cyclone approaching Mackay.
Both Carl and I have the details up on our pages for those who like to 
follow TCs.
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm
These pages, which we usually try to keep identical, have sets of 
gathered links leading to useful information on any tropical cyclones 
anywhere in the world.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 11:33:15 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News

> Laurier,
> Looks good I had no problem downloading it.
> Looks like 'Benni' is about to be a category 1 Cyclone off Mackay!
> Gavin SSWW Canberrra
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> > at : "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
> >Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 12:29:01 -0000
> >
> >After spending a month reformatting the Australian Weather News site,
> I've
> >at last got back to writing up the weather news again! First effort is
> at
> >http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/030202.CFM.
> >
> >Each day's news page is a composite of several pages pulled together
> with
> >Coldfusion. I've tested it on IE6, Opera and Netscape 4.76, and the 
> >Netscape
> >on a large resolution monitor doesn't like the style sheets too much,
> but
> >the stats I'm getting indicate that <1% of users are still using pre
> 6.0
> >Netscape.  I'd be very interested in any feedback on how it appears on
> >different browsers/systems/screens.
> >
> >Cheers
> >
> >Laurier
> >
> > 
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Was weather stick
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 18:24:52 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone heard of these? I'm intrigued by some of these things. 
Anyone got one of these?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Would that be the same camphor of a moth ball? If it is should 
we put some out somewhere and would it show a change when an electrical storm 
was approaching?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://store.yahoo.com/theweathershop/adfitstorgla.html">http://store.yahoo.com/theweathershop/adfitstorgla.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Very curious.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Was weather stick
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 18:56:08 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT size=2>The mahogany one on the left of the image is the same as my 
one. It's the same camphor, dissolved in a solution of ammonium chloride and 
alcohol. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It's much more responsive to temperature changes. In the 
recent hot weather the camphor crystals almost completely disappeared. On a cold 
morning in winter they condense out and fill up most of the test tube. Sometimes 
the crystals are seen floating like tiny snowflakes all up and down in the 
liquid. This is supposed to foretell snow in the Northern 
Hemisphere.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There is a theory that says you can tell what direction the 
wind is about to change to by the direction the crystals are facing (they tend 
to accrete themselves on one side of the tube). I must admit I have observed 
some correlation but it's probably for different reasons altgoether, totally 
unknown to me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Admiral Fitzroy maintained that the whole thing worked on 
electromagnetic forces or something like that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>For further details of the Admiral Fitzroy Barometer and 
Weather Stick, read the following (it's a bit long but will only take a few 
minutes):</FONT><FONT size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Unusual Weather Instruments</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Admiral FitzRoy's Crystal</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Stormglass-Barometer</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Admiral Fitz Roy was a founding member of the 
British Meteorlogical</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Service, and one of the few scientific people of 
the 1800s to study the</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>various storm glasses that were in widespread use 
for weather forecasting.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>These storm glasses were composed of a 
super-saturated mixture of various</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>chemical compounds, hermetically sealed within a 
heavy glass tube; crystals</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>would alternately form and grow into strange and 
fascinating organic and</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>crystalline shapes, or melt and dissappear back 
into solution. Observers</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>reported that the changing character of the 
crystals conformed to outside</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>weather events, in a way that could not be 
explained by normal temperature</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>or pressure effects. Fitz Roy studied these 
various storm glasses,</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>eventually developing one specific mixture which 
he found to be most</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>suitable for weather forecasting. To quote  at  
his Weather Book of 1863:</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>"Considerably more than a century ago, what were 
called 'storm glasses'</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>were made in this country. Who was the inventor, 
is now very uncertain; but</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>they were sold on old London Bridge...</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Since 1825 we have generally had some of these 
vials...when it was fairly</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>demonstrated that if fixed, undisturbed, in free 
air, not exposed to</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>radiation, fire, or sun, but in the ordinary light 
of a well-ventillated</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>room, or preferably in the outer air, the chemical 
mixture in a so-called</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>storm glass varies in character with the direction 
of the wind -- not its</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>force... though it may so vary  at  another cause, 
electrical tension. As</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>the atmospheric current veers toward, comes  at , 
or is only approaching</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1> at  the polar direction, this chemical mixture -- 
if closely, even</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>microscopically watched -- is found to grow like 
fir, or fern leaves -- or</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>like hoar frost -- or even large but delicate 
crystallisations..."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Fitz Roy described a variety of different crystal 
shapes and patterns that</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>developed within the storm glass according to 
different wind directions and</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>weather conditions. However, with the rise of the 
doctrine of "empty</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>space", and the suppression of more recent 
research evidence on the aether</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>and life energy theories, the idea of an unusual 
energetic basis to weather</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>was no longer addressed in textbooks. Still, many 
industrial workers,</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>particularly chemists working with sensitive film 
emulsions, kept making</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>repeated observations of unusual chemical 
reactions associated with subtle</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>weather changes and sunspot activity, even under 
controlled laboratory</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>conditions (see: Chemical Basis of Medical 
Climatology, in our book</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>section). The older ideas are now being 
re-examined by many scientists.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Natural Energy Works has made arrangements with a 
European instrument</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>maker, and can now offer these fascinating, 
hand-crafted instruments, each</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>of which is mounted on an attractive wooden 
display with thermometer and</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>dust cover.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>An Unusual Weather Instrument!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>* Watch the crystals grow and form unusual and 
fascinating organic shapes,</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>like feathers and tree branches.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>* Study the changing forms of the crystals, which 
are influenced by subtle</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>energetic radiations  at  Sun, Earth, and 
Atmosphere!</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>* Learn to forecast atmospheric conditions the 
"Old Fashioned" way.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>* Convince yourself, by direct observations, that 
there is an unusual</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>energetic basis to weather and physical 
chemistry.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>$249. Fitzroy Stormglass Barometer</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>[Image]</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>MAINE WOODSMAN'S WEATHERSTICK</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>A Rustic Weather Predictor  at  the Backwoods of 
Maine</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>"It really works!"</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Originally developed by the Native Americans of 
the Northeast, this special</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>tree branch ( at  the balsam fir tree) accurately 
predicts weather changes.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Hung on an outside wall or door casing exposed to 
the weather, the stick</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>will spontaneously bend down when foul weather is 
approaching, and up for</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>fair weather! This bending effect continues in 
some tree species even when</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>the limb is "dead" and dry. Some say this is an 
affect of humidity, but in</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>the living plant, relative humidity is always at 
saturation, or 100%.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Others say it is an affect of the Earth's 
electrostatic or orgone (life)</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>energy field, which is stronger on clear days and 
weaker during periods of</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>clouds and rain.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>We know you will be fascinated by the unusual 
behavior of the Maine</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Woodsman's Weatherstick.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>$ 6.95 for each Weatherstick</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>$18.00 for 3 Weathersticks</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>[Image]</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>[Image]Return to Book/Product Catalog Table of 
Contents and Ordering</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>Information</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>[Image]Return to OBRL Home Page</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>This page, and all contents, Copyright (C) 
1996</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=#0000ff size=1>by the Orgone Biophysical Research Laboratory, 
Inc.</FONT></P></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:24 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Was weather stick</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Anyone heard of these? I'm intrigued by some of these 
  things. Anyone got one of these?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Would that be the same camphor of a moth ball? If it is 
  should we put some out somewhere and would it show a change when an electrical 
  storm was approaching?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://store.yahoo.com/theweathershop/adfitstorgla.html">http://store.yahoo.com/theweathershop/adfitstorgla.html</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Very curious.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 18:42:53 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>a line of cells starting to build west of mt. gambier and cells rapidly intensifing around adelaide hills, with a bit of luck nocturnal cooling should spark these right up, dunno if it'll get to me though.</DIV>
<DIV>bom forcasting up to 5mm  at  this, last time it was 5-15 mm and we got 32mm, hope it goes the same way.&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
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Embedded Content: IMSTP86.gif: 00000001,6d889026,00000000,00000000
 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 20:02:48 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
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>Petrie

Where????

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:38 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Rain


> 51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
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 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 20:06:48 +1030
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& where pray tell is *Mt. Crosby*???

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 11:00 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain


> 43mm  at  Mt. Crosby for eth 24 hours to midnight last night.  Wonderful, and
> it is still raining, follwing on  at  5mm on each of Sat & Sun.
>
> Not a single wet day in Jan, and not a single dry day in Feb thus far.
>
> John.
>
> -----Original Message-----
>  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of third
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:09 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Rain
>
>
> 51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 20:49:44 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 07:08 AM 4/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:

>Standby. In the next few days if the ants have it right (flying variety).

Hmm that's usually a sign.  Haven't seen any myself, but could be good news 
for the NE...

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Peter" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 21:00:43 +1100
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Hi all,
       If the trough going through, hooks into moisture  at  Cyc
Beni????????????
Who knows?
Cheers Peter(Didjman)

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tony Langdon
(VK3JED)
Sent: Tuesday, 4 February 2003 20:50
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants


At 07:08 AM 4/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:

>Standby. In the next few days if the ants have it right (flying variety).

Hmm that's usually a sign.  Haven't seen any myself, but could be good news
for the NE...

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 21:10:39 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Peter,

Good point!!! The avn model is pointing for a continuation of the moist 
infeed and the winds area generally suggesting that the cloud mass will 
move south towards central NSW coast at least..

By the way, the tortoises/turtles were moving to generally high ground - 3 
of them. They often do this before significant rainfall events. We'll see.

Jimmy Deguara

At 09:00 PM 4/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>        If the trough going through, hooks into moisture  at  Cyc
>Beni????????????
>Who knows?
>Cheers Peter(Didjman)
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tony Langdon
>(VK3JED)
>Sent: Tuesday, 4 February 2003 20:50
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
>
>
>At 07:08 AM 4/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>
> >Standby. In the next few days if the ants have it right (flying variety).
>
>Hmm that's usually a sign.  Haven't seen any myself, but could be good news
>for the NE...
>
>73 de Tony, VK3JED
>http://vkradio.com
>
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>
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: "Aussie-Wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 21:13:41 +1100
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background=cid:02e301c2cc36$17c5bb50$0100a8c0 at simons>
<DIV>hi all.</DIV>
<DIV>I do remember flying ants around chrissy here, we end up with the first 
rain in a while, allbeit ~10mm (33 days with out rain, and counting)</DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P><SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Cheers<BR>---------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra, ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR><STRONG><FONT 
color=#ff0000>*NEW*</FONT></STRONG>- <FONT color=#999999><STRONG>A Small WAP 
service,<BR>Current wx, forecast For Canberra<BR>For mobile phones with 
WAP.</STRONG></FONT><BR><A 
href="http://wap.canberra-wx.com/">http://wap.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------<BR>Proud 
member of the<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au/">www.severeweather.asn.au</A></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: red; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">***WEBSITE 
UPDATE***<BR>Redesign is going good, and i *could*<BR>have the new product ready 
shortly.<BR>However - Im am now playing with CSS<BR>and this means a few more 
weeks wait.<BR>the final product will be much better though!<BR></SPAN><SPAN 
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">-----------------------------------------------------------------------</SPAN></P></DIV></DIV>
<P>&nbsp;</P></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>


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 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Strange summer
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 21:22:10 +1100
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Evening all,

I'm interested to know why the 'storm season' (or in Victoria the
'almost-no-storm-season') has been as it has so far.....  SST's are
rather different to those of this time last year....cooler of the east
coast well north and warmer in Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait by up to
2°C on last year.

Is it that the upper troughs are peaking further west? why has there
hardly been a blocking high in the Tasman if temperatures have been
lower than usual?

Anyone have any quick thoughts that might help build a pattern?  Does
anyone recognise the pattern  at  past summers? (Blair?)

Thanks for your thoughts...

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------






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Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 21:28:13 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 09:13 PM 4/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:

>hi all.
>I do remember flying ants around chrissy here, we end up with the first 
>rain in a while, allbeit ~10mm (33 days with out rain, and counting)

They've been a sure sign of rain here too :)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rockbank firedevil
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 22:49:54 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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More images of the Rockbank firedevil  at  early January - west of
Melbourne
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/06_01_03.htm courtesy of and copyright to
Shawn Smits of the Melton Express Telegraph.

More of Shawn's images can be found here (at the bottom)
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/vicimages.htm - another weather
photographer who has rediscovered the delights of the weather lens...

Enjoy,

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------






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 at : "Dennis Cottle" <dencot1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange summer
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 23:29:57 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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Jane
I think I asked a similar ? of  you about 2  years ago when it was a good
thunder period . The ? was something like does a  trough and a cold front
combining on the chart indicate that thunder storms are possible ?
The answer was yes  at  most of the informed people on the list with the
proviso of moisture , upper cross winds ,temp. and instability of the air
mass.Crossing of the fingers was also mentioned .
I have had my fingers crossed since about Nov. 2002 in Nth. Bayswater Vic. I
think .

Cheers

Dennis Cottle


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 at : "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rain Signs:
Date: Tue, 4 Feb 2003 08:20:47 -0600
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'Feb to All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Around here a good 
sign of rain is when the flies start to gather into groups, also when the birds 
have to fly lower to catch insects to eat (due to higher humidity). Also if 
there is a ring around the moon, this can mean stormy weather in a couple of 
days or so. Theres nothing I like better than to hear the Spring Peepers 
chirping after a good rain.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm hoping for copious amounts of rain for ya'll 
and a good SNOW for me!</FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<DIV><BR>Just my $0.02 worth (+any applicable tax).</DIV>
<DIV>Yours&nbsp; David Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange summer
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 05:57:33 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Dennis & all,

sorry, should have been more specific - I'm talking about the whole of
the Australian longitudes  rather than just Melbourne - I'm looking at
the synoptic / broad scale setups.....

Cheers,

jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------





----- Original Message -----
 at : "Dennis Cottle" <dencot1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 11:29 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange summer


> Jane
> I think I asked a similar ? of  you about 2  years ago when it was a
good
> thunder period . The ? was something like does a  trough and a cold
front
> combining on the chart indicate that thunder storms are possible ?
> The answer was yes  at  most of the informed people on the list with
the
> proviso of moisture , upper cross winds ,temp. and instability of the
air
> mass.Crossing of the fingers was also mentioned .
> I have had my fingers crossed since about Nov. 2002 in Nth. Bayswater
Vic. I
> think .
>
> Cheers
>
> Dennis Cottle
>
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
--
>

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 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 05:49:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
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where indeed !!!

Petrie is a suburb just North of  Brisbane.  Mt Crosby is a suburb West of
Brisbane

----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 7:32 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain


> >Petrie
>
> Where????
>
> Regs. Paul.
> (Stargazer)
> http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
>  at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:38 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Rain
>
>
> > 51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Farmer's forecast
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 07:06:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I remember years ago someone asking an old farmer when it was 
going to rain?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>He just replied casually, "eventually".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 09:17:44 +1100
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>was staying in rainforest near mossman (nth pt douglas) in November.&nbsp; first night there a downpour coincided with an home invasion of hatching (presumably) flying ants.</P>
<P>at the time, put this down to either the precipitation event bring on the masshatching or the lights in the house bring on the hatching or a combination of the two events.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <VK3JED-1 at OPTUSNET.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Flying Ants 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 04 Feb 2003 21:28:13 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;At 09:13 PM 4/02/2003 +1100, you wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;hi all. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;I do remember flying ants around chrissy here, we end up with the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;first rain in a while, allbeit ~10mm (33 days with out rain, and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;counting) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;They've been a sure sign of rain here too :) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;73 de Tony, VK3JED 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://vkradio.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt;to:majordomo at world.std.com 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt;your 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Add photos to your e-mail with  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMAENAU/2746">MSN 8. </a> Get 2 months FREE*. </html>
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</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Farmer's forecast
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 09:21:36 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Feb 2003 22:21:36.0528 (UTC) FILETIME=[C7E22900:01C2CC9B]
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Cruel but fair Bussy - my favourite is, as each day passes, we're one day closer to rain<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Bussy" <BUSSIE at NETC.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "aussie-weather" <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Farmer's forecast 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 07:06:14 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I remember years ago someone asking an old farmer when it was going to rain? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;He just replied casually, "eventually". 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria) 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>The new  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMAENAU/2737">MSN 8: </a> smart spam protection and 2 months FREE* </html>
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</x-html>
Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 09:37:26 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
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Looks just great on my WinXP-IE6  at  1024x768x32-bit system being a nice 
new Dell 2GHz displaying on an ancient Topcon 17 inch MA17S CRT 
monitor.  
You have done a lot of work!
Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 12:29:01 -0000
Subject: aus-wx: The NEWS is back on Australian Weather News

> After spending a month reformatting the Australian Weather News site,
> I've
> at last got back to writing up the weather news again! First effort is
> at
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/030202.CFM.
> 
> Each day's news page is a composite of several pages pulled together
> with
> Coldfusion. I've tested it on IE6, Opera and Netscape 4.76, and the
> Netscape
> on a large resolution monitor doesn't like the style sheets too much,
> but
> the stats I'm getting indicate that <1% of users are still using pre
> 6.0
> Netscape.  I'd be very interested in any feedback on how it appears on
> different browsers/systems/screens.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Laurier
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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 at : "signshop" <signshop at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 14:45:21 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi

I was wondering if you can help me, my daughter is getting married in Sydney
on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am trying to get some idea as to weather
predictions for then, as the reception is on a boat on the harbour.

Do you know of any contacts.

Thank you kindly
Sue

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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Perth
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 16:53:31 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can someone please tell me the overnight 
temperature in Perth on last Sunday/Monday.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Perth
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 17:17:06 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> 
> ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C2CD37.1CEBB560
> Content-Type: text/plain;
> 	charset="iso-8859-1"
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
> 
> Hi everyone,
> 
> Can someone please tell me the overnight temperature in Perth on last =
> Sunday/Monday.
> 
> Thanks,
> Judy
> 

Assuming you're referring to the morning of 3 February, 9.2 at the
airport and 10.3 in the city - both rather on the low side but no
records broken.

For future reference (by everyone), daily climate data
files for the last 2 weeks are available via the SILO web site at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Wed, 05 Feb 2003 14:19:42 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



It was 10.3C

Jacob


At 04:53 PM 5/02/2003 +1100, you wrote: 
>
> Hi everyone,
>  
> Can someone please tell me the overnight temperature in Perth on last
> Sunday/Monday.
>  
> Thanks,
> Judy




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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Perth
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 17:36:20 +1100
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Thanks Jacob

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Jacob" <jacob at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 05, 2003 5:19 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Perth


>
> It was 10.3C
>
> Jacob
>
>
> At 04:53 PM 5/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> >
> > Hi everyone,
> >
> > Can someone please tell me the overnight temperature in Perth on last
> > Sunday/Monday.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Judy
>
>
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:  Perth
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 17:50:13 +1100
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Thanks as well, Blair.

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 05, 2003 5:17 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Perth


> >
> > This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> >
> > ------=_NextPart_000_0010_01C2CD37.1CEBB560
> > Content-Type: text/plain;
> > charset="iso-8859-1"
> > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
> >
> > Hi everyone,
> >
> > Can someone please tell me the overnight temperature in Perth on last =
> > Sunday/Monday.
> >
> > Thanks,
> > Judy
> >
>
> Assuming you're referring to the morning of 3 February, 9.2 at the
> airport and 10.3 in the city - both rather on the low side but no
> records broken.
>
> For future reference (by everyone), daily climate data
> files for the last 2 weeks are available via the SILO web site at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/
>
> Blair
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 19:03:13 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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<x-html>
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<DIV>ken ring's your man,</DIV>
<DIV>are you out there ken,</DIV>
<DIV>you're wanted.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>if&nbsp; no good try here and scroll down,</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://users.boardnation.com/~weather/index.php">http://users.boardnation.com/~weather/index.php</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
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<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Wednesday, 5 February 2003 4:42:13 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: Long range weather</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hi<BR><BR>I was wondering if you can help me, my daughter is getting married in Sydney<BR>on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am trying to get some idea as to weather<BR>predictions for then, as the reception is on a boat on the harbour.<BR><BR>Do you know of any contacts.<BR><BR>Thank you kindly<BR>Sue<BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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Embedded Content: IMSTP87.gif: 00000001,5e583fb3,00000000,00000000
 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Big query
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 20:54:54 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Just a theory and probably a stupid one. All the rain bands 
etc that have crossed Victoria lately have largely missed the NE. Could the heat 
generated by the fires and radiated into the air have an impact by maybe 
"driving" them away. A fair amount of the NE now looks like a desert with burnt 
out trees/forest etc.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>My theory is that there is nothing to stop the radiant heat 
raising into the air and ultimately "blocks" anything that comes our 
way.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Like I said, probably a stupid thought, but maybe a theory 
there somewhere?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Where's my pills...........</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big query
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 21:33:18 +1100
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Bussy, I think the arid landscape that you see is the end 
result of the El Nino process.&nbsp; El Nino's impact on the global circulation 
is such that it favours the maintenance of upper ridges over Eastern Australia. 
It is these upper features which have been driving away or destroying features 
approaching  at  the west. We in Canberra have similarly been watching system 
after system gradually die as they edge across southern NSW towards the ACT (not 
that there have been that many systems mind you!!). If the El Nino begins to 
wane (reflecting the current rise in the SOI) then you will start to see systems 
maintaining (or heaven forbid even intensifying as they move over our 
longitudes) - start to look for active NW cloud bands developing in the 
Autumn.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The westward movement of Beni into Queensland, its interaction 
with an upper low&nbsp;and the subsequent advection of moisture south westwards 
marks a significant deviation  at  recent dominant patterns (where all Coral Sea 
systems have moved rapidly to the SE well before they got anywhere near the Qld 
coast). This could mark a change in the seasonal pattern (hopefully) or might 
still be an abberation. Time will tell.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>At a very local level, the parched landscape may be having a 
minor impact on local conditions. In conditions of marginal instability, the 
absence of any readily available surface moisture may be enough to inhibit 
convection that would have occured in a more moist environment (all else being 
equal, moister air is more buoyant). The bare earth will, however, be hotter in 
the afternoons, so in the right conditions (where the air is unstable) you may 
get more vigorous convection and slightly more severe storms than may have 
occured otherwise. But these effects would be quite localised and relatively 
minor&nbsp;in the grand scheme of the global circulation.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Patrick</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 05, 2003 8:54 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Big query</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Just a theory and probably a stupid one. All the rain bands 
  etc that have crossed Victoria lately have largely missed the NE. Could the 
  heat generated by the fires and radiated into the air have an impact by maybe 
  "driving" them away. A fair amount of the NE now looks like a desert with 
  burnt out trees/forest etc.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>My theory is that there is nothing to stop the radiant heat 
  raising into the air and ultimately "blocks" anything that comes our 
  way.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Like I said, probably a stupid thought, but maybe a theory 
  there somewhere?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Where's my pills...........</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 01:47:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather-list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
 at : Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia
 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<html><head><style type="text/css"><!--
blockquote, dl, ul, ol, li { padding-top: 0 ; padding-bottom: 0 }
 --></style><title>OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown
hittin</title></head><body>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>S.F. man's astounding photo</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
Columbia 7 minutes before it</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>disintegrated<br>
<br>
Sabin Russell, Chronicle Staff Writer<br>
Wednesday, February 5, 2003<br>
<br>
Top investigators of the Columbia space shuttle disaster are analyzing
a<br>
startling photograph -- snapped by an amateur astronomer  at  a San
Francisco<br>
hillside -- that appears to show a purplish electrical bolt striking
the craft<br>
as it streaked across the California sky.<br>
<br>
The digital image is one of five snapped by the shuttle buff at
roughly 5:53<br>
a.m. Saturday as sensors on the doomed orbiter began showing the
first<br>
indications of trouble. Seven minutes later, the craft broke up in
flames over<br>
Texas.<br>
<br>
The photographer requested that his name not be used and said he would
not<br>
release the image to the public until NASA experts had time to examine
it.<br>
<br>
Although there are several possible benign explanations for the image
-- such<br>
as a barely perceptible jiggle of the camera as it took the time
exposure --<br>
NASA's zeal to examine the photo demonstrates the lengths at which the
agency<br>
is going to tap the resources of ordinary Americans in solving the
puzzle.<br>
<br>
Late Tuesday, NASA dispatched former shuttle astronaut Tammy Jernigan,
now a<br>
manager at Lawrence Livermore Laboratories, to the San Francisco home
of the<br>
astronomer to examine his digital images and to take the camera itself
to<br>
Mountain View, where it was to be transported by a NASA T-38 jet to
Houston<br>
this morning.<br>
<br>
A Chronicle reporter was present when the astronaut arrived. First
seeing the<br>
image on a large computer screen, she had one word:
&quot;Wow.&quot;<br>
<br>
Jernigan, who is no longer working for NASA, quizzed the photographer
on the<br>
aperture of the camera, the direction he faced and the estimated
exposure time -<br>
- about four to six seconds on the automatic Nikon 880 camera. It was
mounted<br>
on a tripod, and the shutter was triggered manually.<br>
<br>
In the critical shot, a glowing purple rope of light corkscrews down
toward the<br>
plasma trail, appears to pass behind it, then cuts sharply toward it
 at <br>
below. As it merges with the plasma trail, the streak itself brightens
for a<br>
distance, then fades.<br>
<br>
&quot;It certainly appears very anomalous,&quot; said Jernigan.
&quot;We sure will be very<br>
interested in taking a very hard look at this.&quot;<br>
<br>
Jernigan flew five shuttle missions herself during the 1990s,
including three<br>
on Columbia. On her last flight, the pilot of the craft was Rick
Husband, who<br>
was at the controls when Columbia perished.<br>
<br>
&quot;He was one of the finest people I could ever hope to know,&quot;
said Jernigan.<br>
<br>
It was an astounding day for the San Francisco photographer, who said
he had<br>
not had any success in reaching NASA through its published telephone
hot lines.<br>
<br>
He ultimately reached investigators through a connection with a
relative who<br>
attends the same church as former astronaut Jack Lousma, who flew 24
million<br>
miles in the Skylab 3 mission in 1973.<br>
<br>
Lousma put him in direct touch with Ralph Roe Jr., chief engineer for
the<br>
shuttle program at Johnson Space Flight Center in Houston.<br>
<br>
After a series of telephone conversations Tuesday afternoon, the
photographer<br>
had a veteran shuttle mission specialist knocking at his door by
dinnertime.<br>
Within hours, he was left with a receipt, and his camera was on its
way to<br>
Houston.<br>
<br>
URL: <a
href=
"http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/02/05/CAMERA.TMP"
>http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/02/05/CAMERA.TMP</a
><br>
<br>
&nbsp;<br>
<br>
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle</blockquote>
</body>
</html>

</x-html>

 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 07:31:53 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Thu, 6 Feb 2003 01:47 am, Carl Smith wrote this piece of wisdom:
> >S.F. man's astounding photo
> >Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it
> >disintegrated

Video taken at the same time  at  another location, shows no such streaking. 
It's an artifact  at  the lens of his equipment taking a photo of a bright 
moving object against are dark backdrop.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big query
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:43:41 +1100
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Bussy</P>
<P>the following is not quite 'down on all fours' with your point, but is relevant to the current bushires/drought we've been having.</P>
<P>i tried to get some discussion going on Weatherzone about this.&nbsp; there was a bloke  at  the CFA on the 7.30 report last week and he casually, as if it was gospel truth that everyone knew about, mentioned that the bushfires were acting to lower the chances of any precipitation events, on a macro scale.</P>
<P>i s'pose this is quite plausible.&nbsp; when you look at the diagrams of the fires extent (comparable to the famed '39 event) and you hear about the&nbsp;scale (both vertical and horizontal) of the smoke, it's not beyond the realm of possiblity the fires have impacted on the weather.</P>
<P>my 2 cents worth.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Bussy" <BUSSIE at NETC.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "aussie-weather" <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Big query 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 20:54:54 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Just a theory and probably a stupid one. All the rain bands etc that have crossed Victoria lately have largely missed the NE. Could the heat generated by the fires and radiated into the air have an impact by maybe "driving" them away. A fair amount of the NE now looks like a desert with burnt out trees/forest etc. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;My theory is that there is nothing to stop the radiant heat raising into the air and ultimately "blocks" anything that comes our way. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Like I said, probably a stupid thought, but maybe a theory there somewhere? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Where's my pills........... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria) 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Add photos to your e-mail with  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMUENAU/2746">MSN 8. </a> Get 2 months FREE*. </html>
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X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: getting the gear off for the drought
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:47:44 +1100
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>see on last night's seven thirty report that the women of Ouyen have decided their nude rain dance will take place on march 3rd.&nbsp; seems it's taken some time for the good ladies of the mallee town to decide on a date.&nbsp; maybe they've been keeping a close eye on the movements of the SOI and the SST anomaly charts, for favourable post dance happenings!</DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>STOP MORE SPAM with  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMUENAU/2728">the new MSN 8 </a> and get 2 months FREE* </html>
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</x-html>
 at : "Peter Konnecke" <konno at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: getting the gear off for the drought
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 09:11:52 +1100
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ouyen here we come .... yeehaw .... (in 
jest)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Isn't it wonderful the charachter of Aussies when 
the chips are down to come out and put a bit of fun back into life in the face 
of such terrible times.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pete</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=mskikey at hotmail.com href="mailto:mskikey at hotmail.com">michael 
  king</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, February 06, 2003 8:47 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: getting the gear off for 
  the drought</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV>see on last night's seven thirty report that the women of Ouyen have 
  decided their nude rain dance will take place on march 3rd.&nbsp; seems it's 
  taken some time for the good ladies of the mallee town to decide on a 
  date.&nbsp; maybe they've been keeping a close eye on the movements of the SOI 
  and the SST anomaly charts, for favourable post dance 
  happenings!</DIV></DIV><BR clear=all>
  <HR>
  STOP MORE SPAM with <A href="http://g.msn.com/8HMUENAU/2728">the new MSN 8 
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Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:31:02 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
	Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
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I agree with David.  When I was really into photography years ago, I had 
enough strange streaks  at  some kind of reflection/refraction within 
the lens system to be quite annoying.  I was into astronomy in those 
days, and it was often a beautiful shot of some bright object in the 
night sky that was marred by just such a streak.
I know lens systems have become a lot better in the last forty years, 
but they are still not perfect, and I have a strong hunch that David is 
correct.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 07:31:53 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown 
hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated

> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> Hash: SHA1
> 
> On Thu, 6 Feb 2003 01:47 am, Carl Smith wrote this piece of wisdom:
> > >S.F. man's astounding photo
> > >Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before
> it
> > >disintegrated
> 
> Video taken at the same time  at  another location, shows no such
> streaking. 
> It's an artifact  at  the lens of his equipment taking a photo of a
> bright 
> moving object against are dark backdrop.
> 
> David
> 
> - -- 
> If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If
> you teach 
> them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.
> 
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
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> 
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> VZpdkCb8IIgz0o8Gt71Usjs=
> =ESmG
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> -

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 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big query
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 12:27:18 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hi all, I believe it is possible as the large areas of burnt counrty would 
alter the radiation pattern .There is some argument that land clearing in 
southern Asia has intensified the Thar Desert- the some effect might occur 
in SE Australia until we get regrowth there.I notice that the convection 
over the Brindabellas is quite strong at present particularly over the burnt 
north eastern slopes.Hoever the increased particulate matter may supress 
rainfall rather than increase it?
Any ideas?






> at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big query
>Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 08:43:41 +1100
>


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 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Big query
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Bussy</P>
<P>the following is not quite 'down on all fours' with your point, but is relevant to the current bushires/drought we've been having.</P>
<P>i tried to get some discussion going on Weatherzone about this.&nbsp; there was a bloke  at  the CFA on the 7.30 report last week and he casually, as if it was gospel truth that everyone knew about, mentioned that the bushfires were acting to lower the chances of any precipitation events, on a macro scale.</P>
<P>i s'pose this is quite plausible.&nbsp; when you look at the diagrams of the fires extent (comparable to the famed '39 event) and you hear about the&nbsp;scale (both vertical and horizontal) of the smoke, it's not beyond the realm of possiblity the fires have impacted on the weather.</P>
<P>my 2 cents worth.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Bussy" <BUSSIE at NETC.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "aussie-weather" <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Big query 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 20:54:54 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Just a theory and probably a stupid one. All the rain bands etc that have crossed Victoria lately have largely missed the NE. Could the heat generated by the fires and radiated into the air have an impact by maybe "driving" them away. A fair amount of the NE now looks like a desert with burnt out trees/forest etc. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;My theory is that there is nothing to stop the radiant heat raising into the air and ultimately "blocks" anything that comes our way. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Like I said, probably a stupid thought, but maybe a theory there somewhere? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Where's my pills........... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria) 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Add photos to your e-mail with  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMUENAU/2746">MSN 8. </a> Get 2 months FREE*. </html>
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</x-html>
 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 12:13:11 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Thu, 6 Feb 2003 10:31 am, Phil Smith wrote this piece of wisdom:
> I agree with David.  When I was really into photography years ago, I had
> enough strange streaks  at  some kind of reflection/refraction within
> the lens system to be quite annoying.  I was into astronomy in those
> days, and it was often a beautiful shot of some bright object in the
> night sky that was marred by just such a streak.
> I know lens systems have become a lot better in the last forty years,
> but they are still not perfect, and I have a strong hunch that David is
> correct.

Yep. That's why NASA asked for the camera as well as the image. They can take 
photos with the camera at similiar conditions and see what the results are.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 12:51:31 +1000
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Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was
something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!
There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *.  I have
researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and
amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right at
the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!

Love
Sha

----- Original Message -----
 at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 12:13 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated



Yep. That's why NASA asked for the camera as well as the image. They can
take
photos with the camera at similiar conditions and see what the results are.

David

- --



---
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 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 15:40:22 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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On Thu, 6 Feb 2003 12:51 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was
> something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!
> There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *.  I have
> researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and
> amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right
> at the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!

Those sorts of things have occured many many times before during spaceflight 
with out any event. Anything you see on the sun, takes 3 or 4 days to have an 
influence on the earth. Also there is clear evidence of damage to the wing at 
launch. Why cover up stuff? Anyway if you want to believe that *everything* 
is a big cover up you can, and what I say isn't going to change that.

David


- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 16:45:52 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Thu, 6 Feb 2003 12:51 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was
> something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!
> There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *.  I have
> researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and
> amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right
> at the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!

BTW, there was no explosion, it rolled out of control and broke up at high 
speed.

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 17:31:56 +1030
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Ah-ha!!!!

;)

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 05, 2003 6:19 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain


> where indeed !!!
>
> Petrie is a suburb just North of  Brisbane.  Mt Crosby is a suburb West of
> Brisbane
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
>  at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 7:32 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain
>
>
> > >Petrie
> >
> > Where????
> >
> > Regs. Paul.
> > (Stargazer)
> > http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 19:14:24 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown
	hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Sha
 
Re:
"I have researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time
and amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning
right at the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!"

Could you elaborate Please? Or perhaps provide some URL ref.

Thanks 

Neville 

>  at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 12:51:31 +1000
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
> Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
> 
> Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was
> something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!
> There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *.  I have
> researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and
> amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right at
> the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!
> 
> Love
> Sha
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 12:13 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
> Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
> 
> 
> 
> Yep. That's why NASA asked for the camera as well as the image. They can
> take
> photos with the camera at similiar conditions and see what the results are.
> 
> David
> 

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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 19:22:56 +1100
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I'm intrigued here and not being a real "star watcher" realise that there
are lots of other things out there that we don't know about yet or I don't
watch for. My mind is more than open to lots of things that nature has yet
to throw at us. Always been a firm believer that nature gives us lots of
warnings on many things but we've lost our way over the centuries and
forgotten the basics. Just my opinion and not a thread of knowledge to back
it up :-)
What is a sudden impulse warning though?
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 1:51 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting
Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated


> Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was
> something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!
> There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *.  I have
> researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and
> amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery.  Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right
at
> the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!
>
> Love
> Sha
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 12:13 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown
hitting
> Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
>
>
>
> Yep. That's why NASA asked for the camera as well as the image. They can
> take
> photos with the camera at similiar conditions and see what the results
are.
>
> David
>
> - --
>
>
>
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Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 19:02:28 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated
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<DIV>just saw on the news that nasa now doesn't think the foam would have done the damage, too light, theyre considering either a meteorite or space junk.</DIV>
<DIV>quite possibly they'll never know what or when.</DIV>
<DIV>no&nbsp;matter&nbsp;what we do, how careful or how good we think&nbsp;we are we are always at the </DIV>
<DIV>mercy of the whims of nature.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Thursday, 6 February 2003 6:52:35 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>I'm intrigued here and not being a real "star watcher" realise that there<BR>are lots of other things out there that we don't know about yet or I don't<BR>watch for. My mind is more than open to lots of things that nature has yet<BR>to throw at us. Always been a firm believer that nature gives us lots of<BR>warnings on many things but we've lost our way over the centuries and<BR>forgotten the basics. Just my opinion and not a thread of knowledge to back<BR>it up :-)<BR>What is a sudden impulse warning though?<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR> at : "Sha" &lt;<A href="mailto:shambhala at hotkey.net.au">shambhala at hotkey.net.au</A>&gt;<BR>To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 1:51 PM<BR>Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown hitting<BR>Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated<BR><BR><BR>&gt; Or maybe keep the camera and/or the film with the reply that there was<BR>&gt; something wrong with it ... whilst they dispose of any possible *clues* !!<BR>&gt; There is much more to this in the form of *hidden agendas *. I have<BR>&gt; researched a lot of info about the geomagnetic forces at that time and<BR>&gt; amazing *eruptions* on SOHO imagery. Also a Sudden Impulse Warning right<BR>at<BR>&gt; the time if the explosion ... etc etc etc !!<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; Love<BR>&gt; Sha<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; ----- Original Message -----<BR>&gt;  at : "David Findlay" &lt;<A href="mailto:david at davsoft.com.au">david at davsoft.com.au</A>&gt;<BR>&gt; To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>&gt; Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 12:13 PM<BR>&gt; Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: FW: Mysterious purple streak is shown<BR>hitting<BR>&gt; Columbia 7 minutes before it disintegrated<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; Yep. That's why NASA asked for the camera as well as the image. They can<BR>&gt; take<BR>&gt; photos with the camera at similiar conditions and see what the resulRe aus-wx OFFTOPIC FW Myste.ems
ts<BR>are.<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; David<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; - --<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; ---<BR>&gt; Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.<BR>&gt; Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A href="http://www.grisoft.com">http://www.grisoft.com</A>).<BR>&gt; Version: 6.0.449 / Virus Database: 251 - Release Date: 27/01/2003<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>&gt; message.<BR>&gt; <A href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt;<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 03:25:19 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Mal Ninnes <meso at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting - Saturday 8th February
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hello aussie-weather people,

The next NSW ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday, 8th of February.
Venue:     The Weather Company, 7 West St, North Sydney.
Time:      7pm
Parking:   Free in the streets around the TWC building.
Press the 'Weather21' buzzer to be let in.

Due to a late change, the scheduled presentation this month will now
re-appear during an 
upcoming month. As a result, the main focus this Saturday night will be on
ex TC Beni, and also pyrocumulus clouds (which a lot of people have taken
photos of lately). If you have any video or photos that you'd like to share
with everyone else, please bring them along. Naturally, we'll be able to
discuss a lot more, so bring along your questions too :)

We usually order pizza as well, so bring about $5 for that. For more
information, visit 
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/states/nsw/index.htm or email
meso at iinet.net.au

Friends and relatives are welcome - come along and discuss the weather!


See you there,
Malcolm Ninnes and Matthew Pearce
NSW ASWA State Reps

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 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 09:39:16 +1000
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Mt Crosby is 26Km due west of Brisbane CBD, and 11km due north of Ipswich.

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Stargazer
Sent: Tuesday, 4 February 2003 7:37 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain


& where pray tell is *Mt. Crosby*???

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message -----
 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 11:00 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain


> 43mm  at  Mt. Crosby for eth 24 hours to midnight last night.  Wonderful, and
> it is still raining, follwing on  at  5mm on each of Sat & Sun.
>
> Not a single wet day in Jan, and not a single dry day in Feb thus far.
>
> John.
>
> -----Original Message-----
>  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of third
> Sent: Tuesday, February 04, 2003 6:09 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Rain
>
>
> 51mm over the last 24hrs here in Petrie !
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 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strange summer
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 10:05:47 +1000
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Hi Jane, Patrick,

For my money, Patrick has the answer to your question Jane.  This summer in
Brisbane has been very unusual up to end of Jan.  Not only has it been
exceptionally dry in SEQ (all time record for Jan), but not that hot either.
Normally when it is dry it is also darn hot and while it was hot in the run
up to xmas, with bursts of dry continental air pushing temps just inland
 at  the coast up around the 40C mark on many occasions between Oct 1 and
Xmas, since then the air stream has been predominantly SE but relatively dry
for an on-shore situation.

IMO the reason for this can be traced directly to El Nino, with warm water
sitting in the mid Pacific causing a series of TC's to form in the
Solomon/Fiji region.  The impact of these lows has been to shape the Tasman
highs such that the Quidge (Queensland ridge) is directing a cool maritime
air stream onto the SEQ coast  at  somewhere in the vicinity of New Zealand
instead of a warmer tropical airmass  at  further North.  This relatively
dry airstream then dries even further as it tracks inland, turning towards
Melbourne around the Tasman high.  In short there has been a substantial
shortage of moisture available for westward moving troughs to interact with.

TC Beni has now changed that (temporarilly at least), and Brisbane at last
has a moist onshore airstream of more tropical origin, with consequent much
needed rainfall (almost 5 inches at Mt. Crosby since Feb 1).  But the
conditions we have now would, in a normal year, commence mid December.

John.

>snip
Bussy, I think the arid landscape that you see is the end result of the El
Nino process.  El Nino's impact on the global circulation is such that it
favours the maintenance of upper ridges over Eastern Australia. It is these
upper features which have been driving away or destroying features
approaching  at  the west. We in Canberra have similarly been watching
system after system gradually die as they edge across southern NSW towards
the ACT (not that there have been that many systems mind you!!). If the El
Nino begins to wane (reflecting the current rise in the SOI) then you will
start to see systems maintaining (or heaven forbid even intensifying as they
move over our longitudes) - start to look for active NW cloud bands
developing in the Autumn.

The westward movement of Beni into Queensland, its interaction with an upper
low and the subsequent advection of moisture south westwards marks a
significant deviation  at  recent dominant patterns (where all Coral Sea
systems have moved rapidly to the SE well before they got anywhere near the
Qld coast). This could mark a change in the seasonal pattern (hopefully) or
might still be an abberation. Time will tell.
...
>snip
-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Tuesday, 4 February 2003 8:22 PM
To: Aussie-wx
Subject: aus-wx: Strange summer


Evening all,

I'm interested to know why the 'storm season' (or in Victoria the
'almost-no-storm-season') has been as it has so far.....  SST's are
rather different to those of this time last year....cooler of the east
coast well north and warmer in Port Phillip Bay and Bass Strait by up to
2°C on last year.

Is it that the upper troughs are peaking further west? why has there
hardly been a blocking high in the Tasman if temperatures have been
lower than usual?

Anyone have any quick thoughts that might help build a pattern?  Does
anyone recognise the pattern  at  past summers? (Blair?)

Thanks for your thoughts...

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------






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 at : "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 18:11:19 -0600
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everbody:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Well, I'm a 
real Happy fella now. Yesterday (Wed. Feb. 5) it started Snowing about 10 P.M. 
and the Snow has stopped now 6P.M. Thur. Feb. 6 but we got 3 GLORIOUS INCHES of 
white magic (7.6cm). We were in a Snow Advisory today with local schools and 
many activities cancelled. The morning Low was 31F(-0.5C) the High today was 
around 35F(1.6C). The preliminary forecast was for an INCH or less. Needless to 
say, I'm glad they missed it. (A year ago today, we had 5INCHES[12.7cm] Snow on 
the ground.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I hope this 
news can give ya'll some cool relief!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yours *Deliriously Happy* David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Tina Jones" <bjones14 at postoffice.csu.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:23:13 +1100
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=776352200-07022003>It 
would help if I knew where you were??????&nbsp; LOL, I'm assuming not anywhere 
in Australia.....</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B> at :</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>arky 
  dave<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, 7 February 2003 11:11 AM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: 
  SNNNOOOWWW!!!<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everbody:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Well, I'm a 
  real Happy fella now. Yesterday (Wed. Feb. 5) it started Snowing about 10 P.M. 
  and the Snow has stopped now 6P.M. Thur. Feb. 6 but we got 3 GLORIOUS INCHES 
  of white magic (7.6cm). We were in a Snow Advisory today with local schools 
  and many activities cancelled. The morning Low was 31F(-0.5C) the High today 
  was around 35F(1.6C). The preliminary forecast was for an INCH or less. 
  Needless to say, I'm glad they missed it. (A year ago today, we had 
  5INCHES[12.7cm] Snow on the ground.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I hope this 
  news can give ya'll some cool relief!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yours *Deliriously Happy* David 
  Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:07:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi guys

In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday, here
is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there are
many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out of
the box*.

 If anything I have said here doesn't fit your realm of thought, then please
just delete it without aggravation :)

I have been putting together my thoughts and researching vastly on what may
have happened to the Columbia Shuttle. I never felt easy about the tragedy
and absolutely know there is something that took place of which we aren't
aware.  I have concentrated on possible connections with what we saw
happening with the Sun just days before.

In particular, on 31 January at 21:59 UTC there was an amazing shot of the
sun, looking so like the Eye of Ra ... this can be seen at the SOHO site !!
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov  There were massive *explosions* that were
seen to be *erupting*  at  the surface during the span of a couple of days.

What I found to be *not right* was that on discovering a radar shot at this
identical time, over the area of the explosion of the Columbia, the National
Weather Service site that I was accessing suddenly *locked* its files !  I
had saved the shot of which I spoke, and when I then went to move to the
next view, I received a message :

"Radar Data temporarily unavailable for this Site".

This same screen came up no matter which radar image I tried to view, except
for the current times.  Anything  at  the 31 January and around the 1
February were no longer available.  This set up warning bells for me !!
Hours later, the message was still there and now the pages are no longer
able to be found !

Now, it is not that I even properly understand what I was looking at in the
radar shot, because I am not a meteorologist, but I do know that there was
something *out of the ordinary* that has been kept quiet !!  I have since
accessed another site.

I discovered another *odd* lockout in that the SOHO EIT images were not
available around the couple of days surrounding the tragedy.  All the images
contained the words : CCD BAKEOUT.  Now this was fully explained at the
site, but I query WHY ?? This is the history showing :
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eit/bake_history.html

2003 February 1 02:00 56.0 hr
Heater off 2003 February 3 10:00


Another fact  ....... the solar winds made an amazing leap on 31 January :

"On Jan 31, several C and one minor M Class solar flares were observed. The
solar wind striking the Earth increased  at  390 km/sec. to over 1,000
km/sec. This increase in solar wind hit the Earth precisely at the time of
the tragic Columbia Space Shuttle accident.

"There is currently no evidence of a correlation between the two. However,
it is well-known that a space shuttle in re-entry is under tremendous stress
and is performing a delicate balancing act. It is possible these increased
solar winds unbalanced the Columbia resulting in its unfortunate accident."
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2349

Another major aspect that I find needs to be researched is that right at the
time of the Columbia explosion a SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING was issued by NOAA :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

ALERT MESSAGE : SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1344 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1345 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Feb 01 1305 UTC

ALERT MESSAGE : SUMMARY
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 533
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1347 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

What does this mean ??  It certainly means, to me, that there is grave need
to look deeply into things !!  The Summary of this Sudden Impulse shows a
"Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected".  This is not high, as can be seen  at 
the description here :

"The Warning Alerts  at  the Chart, including the Sudden Impulse Warning,
are all either K=4 or K=5.  I detail the description and effects here :

G 1    Minor     Kp = 5

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible."

It is my opinion that what has taken place is an *intrusion*  at  an
exterior means, and the Star Wars equipment immediately comes to my mind,
has caused these *anomalies* to show up.

It is this exterior force that caused the Columbia to explode !!

I continue my research ..............

With Love
Sha


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 09:15:25 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
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Tina, "Arky Dave" is  at  Arkansas.

Meanwhile here in HK the HKO predicted temperatures of 13-16 for 
yesterday but when I checked in the morning it was 6.7C - a bloke will 
have to get out his winter woolies if this keeps up.

Also I reckon I have somehow become acclimatised to the HK climate.  I 
felt like it was freezing at 6.7 yet I used to think nothing of going 
camping at Yarangobily at negative the same amount -7C.  So I'm worried 
that this tropical climate for the past fourteen years has been turning 
me into some sort of a weakling.  Fancy even thinking it's freezing when 
it's 6.7C!

And just to get back on topic, the last snowfall officially recorded 
here was 103 years ago in 1900, when the sea-level temperature fell to 
zero.
However, I did see a light covering of snow on the Summit of Mount 
Lantau here in December 1989.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "Tina Jones" <bjones14 at postoffice.csu.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:23:13 +1100
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!

> It would help if I knew where you were??????  LOL, I'm assuming not
> anywhere
> in Australia.....
>   -----Original Message-----
>    at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of arky dave
>   Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 11:11 AM
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>   Subject: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
> 
> 
>   Hello Everbody:
>          Well, I'm a real Happy fella now. Yesterday (Wed. Feb. 5) it
> started Snowing about 10 P.M. and the Snow has stopped now 6P.M. Thur.
> Feb.
> 6 but we got 3 GLORIOUS INCHES of white magic (7.6cm). We were in a
> Snow
> Advisory today with local schools and many activities cancelled. The
> morning
> Low was 31F(-0.5C) the High today was around 35F(1.6C). The preliminary
> forecast was for an INCH or less. Needless to say, I'm glad they missed
> it.
> (A year ago today, we had 5INCHES[12.7cm] Snow on the ground.
>          I hope this news can give ya'll some cool relief!
> 
>   Yours *Deliriously Happy* David Powell
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Tina Jones" <bjones14 at postoffice.csu.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:26:10 +1100
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Very interesting questions Sha, keep up the good work.

I hope all will respect your wishes to just hit delete without causing
aggravation if they are unable to keep to sensible and polite debate on the
issue.


-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Sha
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 12:08 PM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


Hi guys

In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday, here
is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there are
many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out of
the box*.

 If anything I have said here doesn't fit your realm of thought, then please
just delete it without aggravation :)

I have been putting together my thoughts and researching vastly on what may
have happened to the Columbia Shuttle. I never felt easy about the tragedy
and absolutely know there is something that took place of which we aren't
aware.  I have concentrated on possible connections with what we saw
happening with the Sun just days before.

In particular, on 31 January at 21:59 UTC there was an amazing shot of the
sun, looking so like the Eye of Ra ... this can be seen at the SOHO site !!
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov  There were massive *explosions* that were
seen to be *erupting*  at  the surface during the span of a couple of days.

What I found to be *not right* was that on discovering a radar shot at this
identical time, over the area of the explosion of the Columbia, the National
Weather Service site that I was accessing suddenly *locked* its files !  I
had saved the shot of which I spoke, and when I then went to move to the
next view, I received a message :

"Radar Data temporarily unavailable for this Site".

This same screen came up no matter which radar image I tried to view, except
for the current times.  Anything  at  the 31 January and around the 1
February were no longer available.  This set up warning bells for me !!
Hours later, the message was still there and now the pages are no longer
able to be found !

Now, it is not that I even properly understand what I was looking at in the
radar shot, because I am not a meteorologist, but I do know that there was
something *out of the ordinary* that has been kept quiet !!  I have since
accessed another site.

I discovered another *odd* lockout in that the SOHO EIT images were not
available around the couple of days surrounding the tragedy.  All the images
contained the words : CCD BAKEOUT.  Now this was fully explained at the
site, but I query WHY ?? This is the history showing :
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eit/bake_history.html

2003 February 1 02:00 56.0 hr
Heater off 2003 February 3 10:00


Another fact  ....... the solar winds made an amazing leap on 31 January :

"On Jan 31, several C and one minor M Class solar flares were observed. The
solar wind striking the Earth increased  at  390 km/sec. to over 1,000
km/sec. This increase in solar wind hit the Earth precisely at the time of
the tragic Columbia Space Shuttle accident.

"There is currently no evidence of a correlation between the two. However,
it is well-known that a space shuttle in re-entry is under tremendous stress
and is performing a delicate balancing act. It is possible these increased
solar winds unbalanced the Columbia resulting in its unfortunate accident."
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2349

Another major aspect that I find needs to be researched is that right at the
time of the Columbia explosion a SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING was issued by NOAA :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

ALERT MESSAGE : SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1344 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1345 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Feb 01 1305 UTC

ALERT MESSAGE : SUMMARY
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 533
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1347 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

What does this mean ??  It certainly means, to me, that there is grave need
to look deeply into things !!  The Summary of this Sudden Impulse shows a
"Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected".  This is not high, as can be seen  at 
the description here :

"The Warning Alerts  at  the Chart, including the Sudden Impulse Warning,
are all either K=4 or K=5.  I detail the description and effects here :

G 1    Minor     Kp = 5

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible."

It is my opinion that what has taken place is an *intrusion*  at  an
exterior means, and the Star Wars equipment immediately comes to my mind,
has caused these *anomalies* to show up.

It is this exterior force that caused the Columbia to explode !!

I continue my research ..............

With Love
Sha


---
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:32:41 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:07 am, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday, here
> is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there are
> many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out of
> the box*.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I'm not one that condemns 
anything out of the box, in fact some of my spaceflight research goes into 
stuff that is not mainstream science. But in order to categorically state 
this is what happened evidence is needed. You can't just base something one 
instance. You need to show more instances, show that it is a repeatable 
phenonema. You need to follow standard scientific method which is to form a 
hypothesis, try to disprove it, then if you can't, then try to prove and 
improve your hypothesis. Prove it by experimentation as well.

You look at those explosions on the sun, but fail to note that there have been 
thousands of similiar explosions when other vehicles have been reentering 
with out any problem. Why wasn't the ISS affected?

These are minor events. If it was a major event, whole satelite networks would 
have been taken out. TV sats are in the van allen belts, the highest 
radiation areas around earth, yet were not affected by this. They would be 
the first to go. These things, then bringing "star wars" does not help your 
credibility. Thanks,

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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Zmz2PPb5txrtiSP4E6cqmFc=
=g6Sw
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 20:37:25 -0500
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I thoroughly agree. Has made me think on a different level. Am looking
forward to anymore info you can find out Sha...great job

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tina Jones
Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 8:26 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


Very interesting questions Sha, keep up the good work.

I hope all will respect your wishes to just hit delete without causing
aggravation if they are unable to keep to sensible and polite debate on the
issue.


-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Sha
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 12:08 PM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


Hi guys

In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday, here
is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there are
many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out of
the box*.

 If anything I have said here doesn't fit your realm of thought, then please
just delete it without aggravation :)

I have been putting together my thoughts and researching vastly on what may
have happened to the Columbia Shuttle. I never felt easy about the tragedy
and absolutely know there is something that took place of which we aren't
aware.  I have concentrated on possible connections with what we saw
happening with the Sun just days before.

In particular, on 31 January at 21:59 UTC there was an amazing shot of the
sun, looking so like the Eye of Ra ... this can be seen at the SOHO site !!
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov  There were massive *explosions* that were
seen to be *erupting*  at  the surface during the span of a couple of days.

What I found to be *not right* was that on discovering a radar shot at this
identical time, over the area of the explosion of the Columbia, the National
Weather Service site that I was accessing suddenly *locked* its files !  I
had saved the shot of which I spoke, and when I then went to move to the
next view, I received a message :

"Radar Data temporarily unavailable for this Site".

This same screen came up no matter which radar image I tried to view, except
for the current times.  Anything  at  the 31 January and around the 1
February were no longer available.  This set up warning bells for me !!
Hours later, the message was still there and now the pages are no longer
able to be found !

Now, it is not that I even properly understand what I was looking at in the
radar shot, because I am not a meteorologist, but I do know that there was
something *out of the ordinary* that has been kept quiet !!  I have since
accessed another site.

I discovered another *odd* lockout in that the SOHO EIT images were not
available around the couple of days surrounding the tragedy.  All the images
contained the words : CCD BAKEOUT.  Now this was fully explained at the
site, but I query WHY ?? This is the history showing :
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eit/bake_history.html

2003 February 1 02:00 56.0 hr
Heater off 2003 February 3 10:00


Another fact  ....... the solar winds made an amazing leap on 31 January :

"On Jan 31, several C and one minor M Class solar flares were observed. The
solar wind striking the Earth increased  at  390 km/sec. to over 1,000
km/sec. This increase in solar wind hit the Earth precisely at the time of
the tragic Columbia Space Shuttle accident.

"There is currently no evidence of a correlation between the two. However,
it is well-known that a space shuttle in re-entry is under tremendous stress
and is performing a delicate balancing act. It is possible these increased
solar winds unbalanced the Columbia resulting in its unfortunate accident."
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2349

Another major aspect that I find needs to be researched is that right at the
time of the Columbia explosion a SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING was issued by NOAA :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

ALERT MESSAGE : SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1344 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1345 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Feb 01 1305 UTC

ALERT MESSAGE : SUMMARY
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 533
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1347 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

What does this mean ??  It certainly means, to me, that there is grave need
to look deeply into things !!  The Summary of this Sudden Impulse shows a
"Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected".  This is not high, as can be seen  at 
the description here :

"The Warning Alerts  at  the Chart, including the Sudden Impulse Warning,
are all either K=4 or K=5.  I detail the description and effects here :

G 1    Minor     Kp = 5

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible."

It is my opinion that what has taken place is an *intrusion*  at  an
exterior means, and the Star Wars equipment immediately comes to my mind,
has caused these *anomalies* to show up.

It is this exterior force that caused the Columbia to explode !!

I continue my research ..............

With Love
Sha


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:38:39 +1000
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Thanks Tina :)

Love
Sha


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "Tina Jones" <bjones14 at postoffice.csu.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:26 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


Very interesting questions Sha, keep up the good work.

I hope all will respect your wishes to just hit delete without causing
aggravation if they are unable to keep to sensible and polite debate on the
issue.





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 11:52:35 +1000
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I have done a lot on a website I am putting up on this topic Paul.  It is a
work in progress, but please feel free to look if it interests you :
http://www.geocities.com/serpentine_moon/columbia.html  I will be adding to
it constantly.  I have yet to complete the radar images page, but hope to do
that today.  This is the particular page on the issues of the sun :
http://www.geocities.com/serpentine_moon/sun.html

Again, I request that anybody who finds what I have written to be out of
their realm of thought, then please just pass it by without aggravation.  I
say this in advance, because I do look at things with an unconventional
approach :)

Love
Sha

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:37 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


I thoroughly agree. Has made me think on a different level. Am looking
forward to anymore info you can find out Sha...great job

PaulY


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:59:15 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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 at  a scientific point of view, I have no trouble in accepting that
electromagnetic disturbances due to solar wind could have caused this
tragedy, however the shuttle is well shielded  at  such events (as they
occur fairly often during the peak of the solar cycle- as we are at at
the moment), so any effect would be unusual. 

The solar "wind" is not powerful enough to "blow" the shuttle off
course. It is a very very tenuous stream of electrically charged
particles traveling very fast. I can imagine, however, that it is
possible that EM interference could have thrown the delicate re-entry
angle balancing act (all controlled by auto pilot) out of "wack" . . .

An interesting theory, which would, no doubt, be receiving much
attention.

James

James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Sha
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 12:08 PM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy

Hi guys

In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday,
here
is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there
are
many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out
of
the box*.

 If anything I have said here doesn't fit your realm of thought, then
please
just delete it without aggravation :)

I have been putting together my thoughts and researching vastly on what
may
have happened to the Columbia Shuttle. I never felt easy about the
tragedy
and absolutely know there is something that took place of which we
aren't
aware.  I have concentrated on possible connections with what we saw
happening with the Sun just days before.

In particular, on 31 January at 21:59 UTC there was an amazing shot of
the
sun, looking so like the Eye of Ra ... this can be seen at the SOHO site
!!
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov  There were massive *explosions* that
were
seen to be *erupting*  at  the surface during the span of a couple of
days.

What I found to be *not right* was that on discovering a radar shot at
this
identical time, over the area of the explosion of the Columbia, the
National
Weather Service site that I was accessing suddenly *locked* its files !
I
had saved the shot of which I spoke, and when I then went to move to the
next view, I received a message :

"Radar Data temporarily unavailable for this Site".

This same screen came up no matter which radar image I tried to view,
except
for the current times.  Anything  at  the 31 January and around the 1
February were no longer available.  This set up warning bells for me !!
Hours later, the message was still there and now the pages are no longer
able to be found !

Now, it is not that I even properly understand what I was looking at in
the
radar shot, because I am not a meteorologist, but I do know that there
was
something *out of the ordinary* that has been kept quiet !!  I have
since
accessed another site.

I discovered another *odd* lockout in that the SOHO EIT images were not
available around the couple of days surrounding the tragedy.  All the
images
contained the words : CCD BAKEOUT.  Now this was fully explained at the
site, but I query WHY ?? This is the history showing :
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eit/bake_history.html

2003 February 1 02:00 56.0 hr
Heater off 2003 February 3 10:00


Another fact  ....... the solar winds made an amazing leap on 31 January
:

"On Jan 31, several C and one minor M Class solar flares were observed.
The
solar wind striking the Earth increased  at  390 km/sec. to over 1,000
km/sec. This increase in solar wind hit the Earth precisely at the time
of
the tragic Columbia Space Shuttle accident.

"There is currently no evidence of a correlation between the two.
However,
it is well-known that a space shuttle in re-entry is under tremendous
stress
and is performing a delicate balancing act. It is possible these
increased
solar winds unbalanced the Columbia resulting in its unfortunate
accident."
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2349

Another major aspect that I find needs to be researched is that right at
the
time of the Columbia explosion a SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING was issued by
NOAA :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

ALERT MESSAGE : SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1344 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1345 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Feb 01 1305 UTC

ALERT MESSAGE : SUMMARY
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 533
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1347 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

What does this mean ??  It certainly means, to me, that there is grave
need
to look deeply into things !!  The Summary of this Sudden Impulse shows
a
"Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected".  This is not high, as can be seen
 at 
the description here :

"The Warning Alerts  at  the Chart, including the Sudden Impulse
Warning,
are all either K=4 or K=5.  I detail the description and effects here :

G 1    Minor     Kp = 5

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible."

It is my opinion that what has taken place is an *intrusion*  at  an
exterior means, and the Star Wars equipment immediately comes to my
mind,
has caused these *anomalies* to show up.

It is this exterior force that caused the Columbia to explode !!

I continue my research ..............

With Love
Sha


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:01:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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David, I am attempting to put across that what happened was an
*extraordinary* event and therefore to take the tack of experimentation, etc
that you suggest, is not feasible in this case.

When I noted the *explosions* on the sun, I also followed through by showing
that they weren't BIG events !! ...... only G4 or G5.  In saying this, I
again am pointing to an *extraordinary* event having taken place.  If you
note the probable affects of G4, as I quoted, you will see that little
impact is made to space vehicles.

On the topic of my mention of *Star Wars* I do trust you appreciate that I
refer to the technology owned by the US government and not the film series.
To be very brief, this equipment constantly orbits Earth, under the guise of
*keeping us protected against unknown forces* ....... or something along
those lines David.  It is a vast piece of high-technology apparatus and has
the ability to use scalar or microwave beams against its *enemy*.  These are
facts ... not fiction !!

Love
Sha

----- Original Message -----
 at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:32 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I'm not one that condemns
anything out of the box, in fact some of my spaceflight research goes into
stuff that is not mainstream science. But in order to categorically state
this is what happened evidence is needed. You can't just base something one
instance. You need to show more instances, show that it is a repeatable
phenonema. You need to follow standard scientific method which is to form a
hypothesis, try to disprove it, then if you can't, then try to prove and
improve your hypothesis. Prove it by experimentation as well.

You look at those explosions on the sun, but fail to note that there have
been
thousands of similiar explosions when other vehicles have been reentering
with out any problem. Why wasn't the ISS affected?

These are minor events. If it was a major event, whole satelite networks
would
have been taken out. TV sats are in the van allen belts, the highest
radiation areas around earth, yet were not affected by this. They would be
the first to go. These things, then bringing "star wars" does not help your
credibility. Thanks,

David



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "David James Powell" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
X-Mailer: NeoMail 1.00
X-IPAddress: 208.189.4.57
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 20:04:17 -0600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G'Day Tina: I am in Mena, Arkansas USA. Mena lies 
close to 94DEG16MIN WEST by 34DEG34MIN North. 
Mena has a population of 5,700+ with an elevation 
(USGS marker in Janssen Park) of 1,177FT(358.8M).
Mena is almost midway between Fort Smith and 
Texarkana, Arkansas; 12Miles(19.3Km) to our west 
is the Oklahoma border.
Hope this helps
Yours David Powell

> This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> 
> 
> It would help if I knew where you were??????  
LOL, I'm assuming not anywhere
> in Australia.....
>   -----Original Message-----
>    at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]
On Behalf Of arky dave
>   Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 11:11 AM
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>   Subject: aus-wx: SNNNOOOWWW!!!
> 
> 
>   Hello Everbody:
>          Well, I'm a real Happy fella now. 
Yesterday (Wed. Feb. 5) it
> started Snowing about 10 P.M. and the Snow has 
stopped now 6P.M. Thur. Feb.
> 6 but we got 3 GLORIOUS INCHES of white magic 
(7.6cm). We were in a Snow
> Advisory today with local schools and many 
activities cancelled. The morning
> Low was 31F(-0.5C) the High today was around 35F
(1.6C). The preliminary
> forecast was for an INCH or less. Needless to 
say, I'm glad they missed it.
> (A year ago today, we had 5INCHES[12.7cm] Snow 
on the ground.
>          I hope this news can give ya'll some 
cool relief!
> 
>   Yours *Deliriously Happy* David Powell
> 
> 

--
Sent using Voltage Net Webmail
http://www.voltage.net/
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 13:05:48 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.3416
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Sorry just a little further to that . . . 

I don't think you need a left-field theory like a "star wars" laser LOL

Simple EM interference due to a Sudden Impulse Event throwing
stabilizing thrusters out could explain it.

James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Sha
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 12:08 PM
To: Aussie Weather
Subject: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy

Hi guys

In reply to a few who questioned further about my comments yesterday,
here
is a bit more.  I am rather reluctant to voice too much though as there
are
many conservatives in this group who are quick to condemn anything *out
of
the box*.

 If anything I have said here doesn't fit your realm of thought, then
please
just delete it without aggravation :)

I have been putting together my thoughts and researching vastly on what
may
have happened to the Columbia Shuttle. I never felt easy about the
tragedy
and absolutely know there is something that took place of which we
aren't
aware.  I have concentrated on possible connections with what we saw
happening with the Sun just days before.

In particular, on 31 January at 21:59 UTC there was an amazing shot of
the
sun, looking so like the Eye of Ra ... this can be seen at the SOHO site
!!
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov  There were massive *explosions* that
were
seen to be *erupting*  at  the surface during the span of a couple of
days.

What I found to be *not right* was that on discovering a radar shot at
this
identical time, over the area of the explosion of the Columbia, the
National
Weather Service site that I was accessing suddenly *locked* its files !
I
had saved the shot of which I spoke, and when I then went to move to the
next view, I received a message :

"Radar Data temporarily unavailable for this Site".

This same screen came up no matter which radar image I tried to view,
except
for the current times.  Anything  at  the 31 January and around the 1
February were no longer available.  This set up warning bells for me !!
Hours later, the message was still there and now the pages are no longer
able to be found !

Now, it is not that I even properly understand what I was looking at in
the
radar shot, because I am not a meteorologist, but I do know that there
was
something *out of the ordinary* that has been kept quiet !!  I have
since
accessed another site.

I discovered another *odd* lockout in that the SOHO EIT images were not
available around the couple of days surrounding the tragedy.  All the
images
contained the words : CCD BAKEOUT.  Now this was fully explained at the
site, but I query WHY ?? This is the history showing :
http://umbra.nascom.nasa.gov/eit/bake_history.html

2003 February 1 02:00 56.0 hr
Heater off 2003 February 3 10:00


Another fact  ....... the solar winds made an amazing leap on 31 January
:

"On Jan 31, several C and one minor M Class solar flares were observed.
The
solar wind striking the Earth increased  at  390 km/sec. to over 1,000
km/sec. This increase in solar wind hit the Earth precisely at the time
of
the tragic Columbia Space Shuttle accident.

"There is currently no evidence of a correlation between the two.
However,
it is well-known that a space shuttle in re-entry is under tremendous
stress
and is performing a delicate balancing act. It is possible these
increased
solar winds unbalanced the Columbia resulting in its unfortunate
accident."
http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=2349

Another major aspect that I find needs to be researched is that right at
the
time of the Columbia explosion a SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING was issued by
NOAA :
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

ALERT MESSAGE : SUDDEN IMPULSE WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1344 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1345 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1400 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2003 Feb 01 1305 UTC

ALERT MESSAGE : SUMMARY
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 533
Issue Time: 2003 Feb 01 1347 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid  at : 2003 Feb 01 1350 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Feb 01 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

What does this mean ??  It certainly means, to me, that there is grave
need
to look deeply into things !!  The Summary of this Sudden Impulse shows
a
"Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected".  This is not high, as can be seen
 at 
the description here :

"The Warning Alerts  at  the Chart, including the Sudden Impulse
Warning,
are all either K=4 or K=5.  I detail the description and effects here :

G 1    Minor     Kp = 5

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible."

It is my opinion that what has taken place is an *intrusion*  at  an
exterior means, and the Star Wars equipment immediately comes to my
mind,
has caused these *anomalies* to show up.

It is this exterior force that caused the Columbia to explode !!

I continue my research ..............

With Love
Sha


---
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 13:27:42 +1100
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Hi Sue,

After drinking lots of tea (I needed the tea leaves :) ), this is the VERY
BEST forecast you can expect for the important day.

Location: Sydney

Date:Mar 22, 2003

Temp: Min will be 16.9
      Max will be 24.1

RH: 9am 73%
    3pm 63%

Mean Wind Speed (km/hr)/Direction:
    9am 7.9  at  WNW (add 45 deg either side)
    3pm 15.2  at  E (add 45 deg either side)

Cloud Cover
    Clear (1 or 2 Ocktas) = 23%
but Cloudy (>5 Octas) = 43%
    (Expect, 4 Octas, ie Partly cloudy with sunny breaks)

Sunshine: 6.4 hrs

I think this is all the info you would need.

Best wishes
tuan (Melb)

(To those questioning my forecast, I CAN prove they are the Best & most
accurate Sue can expect at this level of detail this far out!)



-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of signshop
Sent: Wednesday, 5 February 2003 14:45
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Long range weather


Hi

I was wondering if you can help me, my daughter is getting married in Sydney
on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am trying to get some idea as to weather
predictions for then, as the reception is on a boat on the harbour.

Do you know of any contacts.

Thank you kindly
Sue

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 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:33:21 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:01 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> David, I am attempting to put across that what happened was an
> *extraordinary* event and therefore to take the tack of experimentation,
> etc that you suggest, is not feasible in this case.

Well show by plausible theory and concrete scientific facts how such and event 
could cause what happened.

> When I noted the *explosions* on the sun, I also followed through by
> showing that they weren't BIG events !! ...... only G4 or G5.  In saying
> this, I again am pointing to an *extraordinary* event having taken place. 
> If you note the probable affects of G4, as I quoted, you will see that
> little impact is made to space vehicles.

Yep. It would be extraordinary for a G4 to take out a shuttle.

> On the topic of my mention of *Star Wars* I do trust you appreciate that I
> refer to the technology owned by the US government and not the film series.
> To be very brief, this equipment constantly orbits Earth, under the guise
> of *keeping us protected against unknown forces* ....... or something along
> those lines David.  It is a vast piece of high-technology apparatus and has
> the ability to use scalar or microwave beams against its *enemy*.  These
> are facts ... not fiction !!

I do understand exactly what you're talking about. Particle weapons in space 
weren't all that success as far as we know. It was designed to shoot down 
missiles and spy sats. But if you're trying to say that the US shot down it's 
own shuttle, i find that hard to beleive. Someone else suggested the 
possibility of aliens shooting it down, but that also is rather illogical, 
why would they shoot down a returning spacecraft. 

All I'm trying to say is that you need to follow scientific process and 
provide proof of what you are saying if you want any credibility to these 
claims.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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Version: GnuPG v1.2.1 (GNU/Linux)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:20:54 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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whats wrong with the damaged tiles theory as a smoking gun? (but now they
say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
or the rising new moon at about the time of the tragedy (just an idea) ?

Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 3:33 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> Hash: SHA1
>
> On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:01 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> > David, I am attempting to put across that what happened was an
> > *extraordinary* event and therefore to take the tack of experimentation,
> > etc that you suggest, is not feasible in this case.
>
> Well show by plausible theory and concrete scientific facts how such and
event
> could cause what happened.
>
> > When I noted the *explosions* on the sun, I also followed through by
> > showing that they weren't BIG events !! ...... only G4 or G5.  In saying
> > this, I again am pointing to an *extraordinary* event having taken
place.
> > If you note the probable affects of G4, as I quoted, you will see that
> > little impact is made to space vehicles.
>
> Yep. It would be extraordinary for a G4 to take out a shuttle.
>
> > On the topic of my mention of *Star Wars* I do trust you appreciate that
I
> > refer to the technology owned by the US government and not the film
series.
> > To be very brief, this equipment constantly orbits Earth, under the
guise
> > of *keeping us protected against unknown forces* ....... or something
along
> > those lines David.  It is a vast piece of high-technology apparatus and
has
> > the ability to use scalar or microwave beams against its *enemy*.  These
> > are facts ... not fiction !!
>
> I do understand exactly what you're talking about. Particle weapons in
space
> weren't all that success as far as we know. It was designed to shoot down
> missiles and spy sats. But if you're trying to say that the US shot down
it's
> own shuttle, i find that hard to beleive. Someone else suggested the
> possibility of aliens shooting it down, but that also is rather illogical,
> why would they shoot down a returning spacecraft.
>
> All I'm trying to say is that you need to follow scientific process and
> provide proof of what you are saying if you want any credibility to these
> claims.
>
> David
>
> - --
> If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you
teach
> them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.
>
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
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> I2YxaGJycHqIPp5x21cJ75Y=
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>
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 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 14:04:55 +1000
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On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 01:20 pm, Brian Hamilton wrote this piece of wisdom:
> whats wrong with the damaged tiles theory as a smoking gun? (but now they

Damaged tiles is something that there is some evidence for. It's gotta be more 
than just a conincidence that the first signs of trouble were  at  the same 
area that got hit by foam during launch.

> say they would not have been damaged by the foam)

Don't think of foam as a peice of foam in your couch, but this stuff is very 
hard. It was also propelled by a Mach 2 airflow. So it wouldn't just bounce 
of the tiles, it would be rammed into them. They'll do wind tunnel testing no 
doubt to see what does happen to tiles hit by foam.

> or the rising new moon at about the time of the tragedy (just an idea) ?

The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem before.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
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 at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:43:53 +1100
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Hi Sha,

First off, I want to say that I am not trying to put down your idea's or
theories and I am not an expert in this area, so I will try not to sound
like one.

I will start with the 'Star Wars' equipment that has been mentioned, it is
still on paper only and it was only last year that George W Bush resurrected
plans to build it, in doing so breaking a treaty that had been signed by the
US and Russia as well as a few other countries not to use space as a
battlefield.  The US Govt. has been quite open about it's intentions in
regards to this and they plan to have the first satellites in orbit within
the next few years  at  what I have read.

As for the Shuttle, IMHO, I can't see solar winds as being the primary cause
for this tragedy.  If the solar winds had enough force behind them to affect
the Shuttle after it had started it's atmospheric interface, imagine the
damage it would have caused the thousands of man made satellites that are
orbiting Earth.  There are amateur radio and science satellites up there
that only weigh in the tens of kilo's and not the thousands of kilo's that
the Shuttle weighs that would have been knocked out of their orbit's causing
communication problems and possibly even some of them to re-enter the
atmosphere.

Like I said, I am no expert, but I do know that wind and drag have two
different effects on aircraft and I would imagine that it would be similar
with the Shuttle.  NASA has stated that during re-entry the shuttle was
experiencing increased drag on the port side which required corrections by
rudder inputs  at  the autopilot.  They also stated that the corrections
were larger than on any other re-entry by any Shuttle. Again, IMHO, that
could only have been caused by drag, not wind.  The faster an aircraft
travels, the less the effect of crosswind there is, even windshear doesn't
have as much of an effect on aircraft as cruise speed, only when they are on
approach to land do they get into trouble as they are basically as slow as
they can fly.  I would imagine that at 18 times the speed of sound any
effect of solar or atmospheric wind would be negligible.

But, like I have stated, I am no expert and these are just my educated
guesses.

I congratulate you on your investigations and your courage in posting what
many would call crack pot theories.  Keep it up, Galileo was called a crack
pot once.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 1:01 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> David, I am attempting to put across that what happened was an
> *extraordinary* event and therefore to take the tack of experimentation,
etc
> that you suggest, is not feasible in this case.
>
> When I noted the *explosions* on the sun, I also followed through by
showing
> that they weren't BIG events !! ...... only G4 or G5.  In saying this, I
> again am pointing to an *extraordinary* event having taken place.  If you
> note the probable affects of G4, as I quoted, you will see that little
> impact is made to space vehicles.
>
> On the topic of my mention of *Star Wars* I do trust you appreciate that I
> refer to the technology owned by the US government and not the film
series.
> To be very brief, this equipment constantly orbits Earth, under the guise
of
> *keeping us protected against unknown forces* ....... or something along
> those lines David.  It is a vast piece of high-technology apparatus and
has
> the ability to use scalar or microwave beams against its *enemy*.  These
are
> facts ... not fiction !!
>
> Love
> Sha
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:32 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I'm not one that
condemns
> anything out of the box, in fact some of my spaceflight research goes into
> stuff that is not mainstream science. But in order to categorically state
> this is what happened evidence is needed. You can't just base something
one
> instance. You need to show more instances, show that it is a repeatable
> phenonema. You need to follow standard scientific method which is to form
a
> hypothesis, try to disprove it, then if you can't, then try to prove and
> improve your hypothesis. Prove it by experimentation as well.
>
> You look at those explosions on the sun, but fail to note that there have
> been
> thousands of similiar explosions when other vehicles have been reentering
> with out any problem. Why wasn't the ISS affected?
>
> These are minor events. If it was a major event, whole satelite networks
> would
> have been taken out. TV sats are in the van allen belts, the highest
> radiation areas around earth, yet were not affected by this. They would be
> the first to go. These things, then bringing "star wars" does not help
your
> credibility. Thanks,
>
> David
>
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.449 / Virus Database: 251 - Release Date: 27/01/2003
>
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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 18:46:56 +1300
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>
> The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
before.
>
well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
certain moon events.
I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats all.
Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
Brian

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X-Originating-IP: [203.220.168.8]
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 17:09:14 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2003 06:09:14.0577 (UTC) FILETIME=[709C2C10:01C2CE6F]
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<x-flowed>

Ho ho ho Tuan....

Persistence forecasting cum long-term averages for that day strike again!

Cheers,
Kevin  at  Wycheproof.







> at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
>Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 13:27:42 +1100
>
>
>Hi Sue,
>
>After drinking lots of tea (I needed the tea leaves :) ), this is the VERY
>BEST forecast you can expect for the important day.
>
>Location: Sydney
>
>Date:Mar 22, 2003
>
>Temp: Min will be 16.9
>       Max will be 24.1
>
>RH: 9am 73%
>     3pm 63%
>
>Mean Wind Speed (km/hr)/Direction:
>     9am 7.9  at  WNW (add 45 deg either side)
>     3pm 15.2  at  E (add 45 deg either side)
>
>Cloud Cover
>     Clear (1 or 2 Ocktas) = 23%
>but Cloudy (>5 Octas) = 43%
>     (Expect, 4 Octas, ie Partly cloudy with sunny breaks)
>
>Sunshine: 6.4 hrs
>
>I think this is all the info you would need.
>
>Best wishes
>tuan (Melb)
>
>(To those questioning my forecast, I CAN prove they are the Best & most
>accurate Sue can expect at this level of detail this far out!)
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of signshop
>Sent: Wednesday, 5 February 2003 14:45
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
>Hi
>
>I was wondering if you can help me, my daughter is getting married in 
>Sydney
>on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am trying to get some idea as to weather
>predictions for then, as the reception is on a boat on the harbour.
>
>Do you know of any contacts.
>
>Thank you kindly
>Sue
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to  
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.220.168.8]
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 17:20:49 +1100
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<x-flowed>

Hi every1,

I was NOT going to reply to this thread (which probably better belongs on a 
"Conspiracy Theory" list than a weather one) but I have to just have 
2.2cents worth for the hell of it...

A couple of points immediately occurred after Sha's and others' posts:

[1] Occam's Razor. Better known as the KISS principle. The simplest answer 
is most often correct. There is no need to introduce extraneous sources for 
the damage to the shuttle as it has been well documented (now) that damage 
to shuttles at lift-off have been a disturbingly common occurrence. (Not to 
mention that Columbia was very old for a shuttle).

[2] Shuttles (as has been pointed out already) are reasonably protected  at  
solar flares etc while in space...however I'm a little more dubious about 
their influence at all at heights less than 70 km...

[3] CCD imagery  at  satellites however IS prone to influences  at  solar 
flares (although again the strength of that influence at the presumed time 
is debatable) so a dearth of imagery afterwards points more to damage of the 
charge-couple-device rather than an immediate cover-up...

[4] Thinking outside the box is encouraged and commended. I'm not saying 
you're wrong Sha...just that a basic tenet of logic goes as follows:
Event A occurs followed closely by Event B. This does not automatically mean 
however that Event A CAUSED Event B!

Cheers,
Kevin  at  Wycheproof.





> at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:20:54 +1300
>
>whats wrong with the damaged tiles theory as a smoking gun? (but now they
>say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
>or the rising new moon at about the time of the tragedy (just an idea) ?
>
>Cheers
>Brian
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 3:33 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> > Hash: SHA1
> >
> > On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 12:01 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> > > David, I am attempting to put across that what happened was an
> > > *extraordinary* event and therefore to take the tack of 
>experimentation,
> > > etc that you suggest, is not feasible in this case.
> >
> > Well show by plausible theory and concrete scientific facts how such and
>event
> > could cause what happened.
> >
> > > When I noted the *explosions* on the sun, I also followed through by
> > > showing that they weren't BIG events !! ...... only G4 or G5.  In 
>saying
> > > this, I again am pointing to an *extraordinary* event having taken
>place.
> > > If you note the probable affects of G4, as I quoted, you will see that
> > > little impact is made to space vehicles.
> >
> > Yep. It would be extraordinary for a G4 to take out a shuttle.
> >
> > > On the topic of my mention of *Star Wars* I do trust you appreciate 
>that
>I
> > > refer to the technology owned by the US government and not the film
>series.
> > > To be very brief, this equipment constantly orbits Earth, under the
>guise
> > > of *keeping us protected against unknown forces* ....... or something
>along
> > > those lines David.  It is a vast piece of high-technology apparatus 
>and
>has
> > > the ability to use scalar or microwave beams against its *enemy*.  
>These
> > > are facts ... not fiction !!
> >
> > I do understand exactly what you're talking about. Particle weapons in
>space
> > weren't all that success as far as we know. It was designed to shoot 
>down
> > missiles and spy sats. But if you're trying to say that the US shot down
>it's
> > own shuttle, i find that hard to beleive. Someone else suggested the
> > possibility of aliens shooting it down, but that also is rather 
>illogical,
> > why would they shoot down a returning spacecraft.
> >
> > All I'm trying to say is that you need to follow scientific process and
> > provide proof of what you are saying if you want any credibility to 
>these
> > claims.
> >
> > David
> >
> > - --
> > If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you
>teach
> > them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.
> >
> > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
> > Version: GnuPG v1.2.1 (GNU/Linux)
> >
> > iD8DBQE+QxrxZOfFgbBAbXARAkjSAJoD+9NyDA54LChoyxui1scq1VPbNwCgksi8
> > I2YxaGJycHqIPp5x21cJ75Y=
> > =wit8
> > -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
> >
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>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:59:05 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 04:20 pm, Kevin Phyland wrote this piece of wisdom:
> I was NOT going to reply to this thread (which probably better belongs on a
> "Conspiracy Theory" list than a weather one) but I have to just have
> 2.2cents worth for the hell of it...

I'd like to note the "Which is more likely" rule and then point you at this 
article, which seems to have the cause pinpointed 
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030207avweek/

As such it is a design flaw, and I don't think we'll see the shuttle ever fly 
again. Hopefully they will replace it with a better ssto.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 20:02:22 +1000
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Hi,
I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral heads,
but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here might
know of a resource available to help me?
Suze =^. .^=


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 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 20:02:23 +1000
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Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing? No
details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating lunar
declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
Suze =^. .^=

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tuan Phan
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 12:28 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather



Hi Sue,

After drinking lots of tea (I needed the tea leaves :) ), this is the VERY
BEST forecast you can expect for the important day.

Location: Sydney

Date:Mar 22, 2003

Temp: Min will be 16.9
      Max will be 24.1

RH: 9am 73%
    3pm 63%

Mean Wind Speed (km/hr)/Direction:
    9am 7.9  at  WNW (add 45 deg either side)
    3pm 15.2  at  E (add 45 deg either side)

Cloud Cover
    Clear (1 or 2 Ocktas) = 23%
but Cloudy (>5 Octas) = 43%
    (Expect, 4 Octas, ie Partly cloudy with sunny breaks)

Sunshine: 6.4 hrs

I think this is all the info you would need.

Best wishes
tuan (Melb)

(To those questioning my forecast, I CAN prove they are the Best & most
accurate Sue can expect at this level of detail this far out!)



-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of signshop
Sent: Wednesday, 5 February 2003 14:45
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Long range weather


Hi

I was wondering if you can help me, my daughter is getting married in Sydney
on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am trying to get some idea as to weather
predictions for then, as the reception is on a boat on the harbour.

Do you know of any contacts.

Thank you kindly
Sue

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 at : sgalow at ihug.com.au
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 20:30:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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it depends
for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
http://www.bom.gov.au/
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...


> Hi,
> I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral heads,
> but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here might
> know of a resource available to help me?
> Suze =^. .^=
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:40:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken, I can't say that your wrong, don't know enough to say that, but my
understanding of the upper atmosphere where the Shuttle was at the time the
air isn't dense enough.  I can understand the if what you hypothesis is
correct, in the dense lower air where Dash 8's are usually found playing,
but up in the very extremities of the atmosphere?

I saw an interview a while ago with a Joseph W Kittinger, who in 1960
established a World record for the longest freefall when he jumped  at  a
balloon at 102,800ft and opened his parachute at 18,000ft.  He said in the
interview that he freefell for four and a half minutes but didn't hear or
feel any wind for the first minute and a half.  He said it almost felt like
he was hanging there as there was no sensation of falling because of the
lack of air and wind.  The purpose of the jump was to test parachutes for
the space program to see if they could get a design the astronauts could use
if they had to bail out of their modules at high altitudes.

That and the fact that there would have to be thousands of extremely lucky
pilots and passengers across the world if this is such a big problem for
aviation.  There are hundreds of aircraft in the air each minute of every
day around the world.  If these king airtides are such a factor, surely
there would be more accidents.

Ken, I am not saying your wrong and I don't want to get into the same type
of conversation that has happened here previously, but to say that this is
what happened to the Shuttle without taking other factors into account is
jumping the gun I feel.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 10:17 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive
article
> on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ. It
> can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading "Ansett
> 708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour
of
> a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence. Many
> unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
> times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
> have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.
>
> > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> before.
> This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when
that
> pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
> sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for it".
> When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
>
> Ken Ring
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> > >
> > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> > before.
> > >
> > well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
> > certain moon events.
> > I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats all.
> > Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> > Brian
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 23:51:44 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=GENERATOR><!--IncrdiXMLRemarkStart>
<IncrdiX-Info>
<X-FID>FLAVOR00-NONE-0000-0000-000000000000</X-FID>
<X-FVER></X-FVER>
<X-CNT>;</X-CNT>
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<IncrdiXMLRemarkEnd-->
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY 
style="BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px 0px; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 5px 10px 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" 
bgColor=#ffffff background="" scroll=yes X-FVER="3.0" ORGYPOS="0">
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Sue</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Saturday 22nd March Sydney</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It looks to be the end of a short wet spell. Mostly sunny but 
the odd early afternoon shower&nbsp;would be&nbsp;my judgement. About 25deg, 
light northeasterly wind. Scattered cloud. The day will be good, any showers 
will be passing quickly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Ken Ring</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.predictweather.com">www.predictweather.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 05, 2003 9:33 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Long range 
  weather</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <TABLE id=INCREDIMAINTABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" 
    border=0><TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD id=INCREDITEXTREGION 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; CURSOR: auto; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" width="100%">
        <DIV>ken ring's your man,</DIV>
        <DIV>are you out there ken,</DIV>
        <DIV>you're wanted.</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>if&nbsp; no good try here and scroll down,</DIV>
        <DIV><A 
        href="http://users.boardnation.com/~weather/index.php">http://users.boardnation.com/~weather/index.php</A></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original 
        Message-------</I></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=receivestrings>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Wednesday, 5 
        February 2003 4:42:13 PM</DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: Long 
        range weather</DIV></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hi<BR><BR>I was wondering if you can help me, my 
        daughter is getting married in Sydney<BR>on Sat 22 March 2003 and I am 
        trying to get some idea as to weather<BR>predictions for then, as the 
        reception is on a boat on the harbour.<BR><BR>Do you know of any 
        contacts.<BR><BR>Thank you 
        kindly<BR>Sue<BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To 
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        your<BR>message.<BR><A 
        href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. 
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      align=middle></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SPAN 
  id=IncrediStamp><SPAN dir=ltr><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" 
  size=2>____________________________________________________<BR><FONT 
  face="Comic Sans MS" size=2><A 
  href="http://www.incredimail.com/redir.asp?ad_id=309&amp;lang=9"><IMG alt="" 
  hspace=0 src="cid:00f001c2ce96$e7c6fff0$1f4e25ca at ken" align=baseline 
  border=0></A>&nbsp; <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - 
  </FONT><A 
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Embedded Content: IMSTP91.gif: 00000001,776c7833,00000000,00000000
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 00:17:11 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive article
on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ. It
can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading "Ansett
708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour of
a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence. Many
unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.

> > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
before.
This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when that
pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for it".
When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..

Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> >
> > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> before.
> >
> well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
> certain moon events.
> I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats all.
> Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> Brian
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:37:42 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
Importance: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Thanks, I'm familiar with BoM, great site they have. I'd pulled SOI tables
 at  the Long Paddock website a few years ago, didn't know BoM had them? A
mate just sent this link below...so I'll see if Warren Beck is available for
some advice...perhaps info if I ask reeeely nicely : )  Oh, my location is
Logan, Qld, currently enjoying this cooler weather and the recent soaking
rains *refreshing...
Suze =^. .^=
'Corals Lock El Nino History in Radiocarbon'
http://www.newswise.com/articles/2001/10/CORALS.UAZ.html


-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
sgalow at ihug.com.au
Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 8:30 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...


it depends
for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
http://www.bom.gov.au/
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...


> Hi,
> I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral heads,
> but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here might
> know of a resource available to help me?
> Suze =^. .^=
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 00:44:05 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 03:20 AM 8/02/2003 +1300, Ken Ring wrote:

>Chris
>Fair comment. Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was about
>0.7km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high, the earth is about 13,000km
>wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km on a few minutes. So

Umm, Ken, the Shuttle broke up at around 60km.  It first got into 
difficulty at a higher altitude.  0.7km is 700 metres, there would have 
been a lot of closeup newsreel footage...

>Shuttle wasn't that high up and in fact low enough to encounter the
>friction-heating effect or wouldn't have caught fire. Fire only happens
>where there's enough oxygen.

Did it catch fire?   at  what I saw, it was under the influence of 
frictional heating (which was excessive on some parts of the left wing, 
apparently).

>One can't help wondering if the parachutist also suffered mentally somewhat
>at 100,000 feet, and therefore if his reporting memory was reliable!

I'm sure he'd have been in a pressure suit to avoid oxygen deprivation and 
other nasty effects of the extremely low pressure (like one's bodily fluids 
having a tendancy to boil).

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.220.169.103]
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 01:18:47 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Feb 2003 14:18:47.0384 (UTC) FILETIME=[D42AD580:01C2CEB3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Suze et al,

Before I start may I say that I speak ONLY as an interested amateur...

SOIs are great...they tell you the average difference in atmospheric 
pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. They can't actually tell you much more 
unless you know the changes in SSTs in the Pacific at the same time.

The Bureau's records of SOIs go back a fair way I admit but the vast 
majority of them were back-calculated after the 1970s when the interaction 
between the ocean currents and weather in Australia was first mooted.

Going back beyond 1880 seems to be stretching some data beyond its 
reliability. Also, if "long-term" patterns or predictability is your goal, 
it begs the eternal question of what actually TRIGGERS an El Nino or La Nina 
event.

Where you live (Logan) is susceptible to El Nino events on a regular basis 
but the majority of Australia historically has a poor record of SOI - 
drought correlation barring 1982-3 and the current one. I point you to the 
1968 drought (in Victoria) etc... just poke through the numbers on the BoM 
site...

"Long-term" has always been a bugbear for climatologists..I've harped on 
this before...how long is long enough to determine a trend? (How long is a 
piece of string?)

An analysis of the SOIs was practically the first thing I did when the data 
became widely available...the correlations between low rainfall and low SOI 
TRENDS are positive for eastern Australia (particularly north of say 
Sydney...I'm not giving a limit here btw)...but for the rest of Australia it 
seems that many other factors need to be considered.

The rainfall in south-eastern Australia during the growing season relies on 
(among other things) a coincidence between fronts and available moisture. 
The north-west rainbands that Victorians so love to see originate in the 
ocean off the NW coast of Australia and consequently the SSTs there are a 
large factor in the potential for moisture. I believe it is only in the last 
five years however that a link *may* have been established between the 
warming of the Eastern Pacific and the temperature changes in the ocean 
south of Indonesia. I'm yet to see any correlative data atm..

Where am I going here?

The usual place. Statistics are a valid tool for many things. I don't 
believe that we have anywhere near enough data on temperature, pressure (and 
certainly SSTs and SOIs) to draw any conclusions pattern-wise about  weather 
patterns that may have been occurring for thousands/millions or just tens of 
years.

Having said that, it is totally appropriate to keep looking! Just don't try 
to draw too long a bow when saying A causes B...


Sorry for the rant,
Kevin  at  (a very dry) Wycheproof.







> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:37:42 +1000
>
>Thanks, I'm familiar with BoM, great site they have. I'd pulled SOI tables
> at  the Long Paddock website a few years ago, didn't know BoM had them? A
>mate just sent this link below...so I'll see if Warren Beck is available 
>for
>some advice...perhaps info if I ask reeeely nicely : )  Oh, my location is
>Logan, Qld, currently enjoying this cooler weather and the recent soaking
>rains *refreshing...
>Suze =^. .^=
>'Corals Lock El Nino History in Radiocarbon'
>http://www.newswise.com/articles/2001/10/CORALS.UAZ.html
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
>sgalow at ihug.com.au
>Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 8:30 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
>it depends
>for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
>http://www.bom.gov.au/
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
> > Hi,
> > I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> > access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> > article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral 
>heads,
> > but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here 
>might
> > know of a resource available to help me?
> > Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail 
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 03:20:37 +1300
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Chris
Fair comment. Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was about
0.7km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high, the earth is about 13,000km
wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km on a few minutes. So
Shuttle wasn't that high up and in fact low enough to encounter the
friction-heating effect or wouldn't have caught fire. Fire only happens
where there's enough oxygen.
It is a problem for aviation because there are lots of accidents that are
unexplained but they just leave it at that. The reluctance to attribute
anything to the moon goes back 300 years and is more to do with religious
dogma and politics rather than science, which is why they won't be looking
at the moon anytime soon. It's the same with weather forecasting.
Interesting about the parachutist, but of course one report  at  one jump
doesn't tell us much. Jet streams occur around 35,000 feet. When Glaisher
ballooned at 37,000 feet in 1862 he became unconscious and almost paralysed.
One can't help wondering if the parachutist also suffered mentally somewhat
at 100,000 feet, and therefore if his reporting memory was reliable!
cheers
Ken
www.predictweather.com


----- Original Message -----
 at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:40 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> Ken, I can't say that your wrong, don't know enough to say that, but my
> understanding of the upper atmosphere where the Shuttle was at the time
the
> air isn't dense enough.  I can understand the if what you hypothesis is
> correct, in the dense lower air where Dash 8's are usually found playing,
> but up in the very extremities of the atmosphere?
>
> I saw an interview a while ago with a Joseph W Kittinger, who in 1960
> established a World record for the longest freefall when he jumped  at  a
> balloon at 102,800ft and opened his parachute at 18,000ft.  He said in the
> interview that he freefell for four and a half minutes but didn't hear or
> feel any wind for the first minute and a half.  He said it almost felt
like
> he was hanging there as there was no sensation of falling because of the
> lack of air and wind.  The purpose of the jump was to test parachutes for
> the space program to see if they could get a design the astronauts could
use
> if they had to bail out of their modules at high altitudes.
>
> That and the fact that there would have to be thousands of extremely lucky
> pilots and passengers across the world if this is such a big problem for
> aviation.  There are hundreds of aircraft in the air each minute of every
> day around the world.  If these king airtides are such a factor, surely
> there would be more accidents.
>
> Ken, I am not saying your wrong and I don't want to get into the same type
> of conversation that has happened here previously, but to say that this is
> what happened to the Shuttle without taking other factors into account is
> jumping the gun I feel.
>
> Chris
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 10:17 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> > I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive
> article
> > on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ.
It
> > can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading
"Ansett
> > 708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour
> of
> > a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence.
Many
> > unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
> > times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
> > have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.
> >
> > > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
problem
> > before.
> > This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when
> that
> > pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
> > sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for
it".
> > When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
> >
> > Ken Ring
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> >
> >
> > > >
> > > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
problem
> > > before.
> > > >
> > > well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
> > > certain moon events.
> > > I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats
all.
> > > Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> > > Brian
> > >
> > >
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Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 10:28:04 -0600
 at : Tom Johnstone <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
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<x-flowed>
At 02:04 PM 2/7/2003 +1000, David wrote:

> > say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
>
>Don't think of foam as a peice of foam in your couch, but this stuff is very
>hard. It was also propelled by a Mach 2 airflow. So it wouldn't just bounce
>of the tiles, it would be rammed into them. They'll do wind tunnel testing no
>doubt to see what does happen to tiles hit by foam.

NASA is indeed saying that the foam, which is extremely lightweight, would 
most probably not caused much damage, and that there was no ice problem 
that day. But I wonder - we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of 
straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc after the passage of a 
cyclone or tornado, with equates to a wind of maybe 300-400 km/h. The force 
of impact  at  the foam must have been much greater than that, given the 
accelaration and velocity of the shuttle at the time. Any thoughts anyone?

Tom


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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 07 Feb 2003 10:39:56 -0600
 at : Tom Johnstone <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
Subject: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're living
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<x-flowed>
Here's my current situation:

My current residence: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Feb 7th min. temp : -20C

My home town: Perth, WA, Australia
Feb 7th max temp: +36C

Difference: 56C !!!!


My record:

Madison, WI, Dec 25th, 2000, min temp: -29.4C
Perth, WA, Dec 25th, 2000, max temp: 38.7c
Difference: 68.1C !!!!!


Anyone got some good ones? It could be temp -related, or rain, or wind etc.

Tom

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 06:26:20 +1300
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the point is that it is atmosphere that causes the friction heating....
yes the atmopshere is very thin at that altitude....
but its travelling that fast, its as if its much thicker....i.e "scoops it
up"
so the notion is that a lunar atmospheric tide could have meant an increase
is the amount of atmosphere etc...which might have made a difference....that
was the "idea" but i like the tile's problem my self!
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 2:44 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> At 03:20 AM 8/02/2003 +1300, Ken Ring wrote:
>
> >Chris
> >Fair comment. Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was about
> >0.7km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high, the earth is about
13,000km
> >wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km on a few minutes. So
>
> Umm, Ken, the Shuttle broke up at around 60km.  It first got into
> difficulty at a higher altitude.  0.7km is 700 metres, there would have
> been a lot of closeup newsreel footage...
>
> >Shuttle wasn't that high up and in fact low enough to encounter the
> >friction-heating effect or wouldn't have caught fire. Fire only happens
> >where there's enough oxygen.
>
> Did it catch fire?   at  what I saw, it was under the influence of
> frictional heating (which was excessive on some parts of the left wing,
> apparently).
>
> >One can't help wondering if the parachutist also suffered mentally
somewhat
> >at 100,000 feet, and therefore if his reporting memory was reliable!
>
> I'm sure he'd have been in a pressure suit to avoid oxygen deprivation and
> other nasty effects of the extremely low pressure (like one's bodily
fluids
> having a tendancy to boil).
>
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
>
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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:15:04 +1300
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i agree with you Tom on this notion
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:28 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> At 02:04 PM 2/7/2003 +1000, David wrote:
>
> > > say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
> >
> >Don't think of foam as a peice of foam in your couch, but this stuff is
very
> >hard. It was also propelled by a Mach 2 airflow. So it wouldn't just
bounce
> >of the tiles, it would be rammed into them. They'll do wind tunnel
testing no
> >doubt to see what does happen to tiles hit by foam.
>
> NASA is indeed saying that the foam, which is extremely lightweight, would
> most probably not caused much damage, and that there was no ice problem
> that day. But I wonder - we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of
> straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc after the passage of a
> cyclone or tornado, with equates to a wind of maybe 300-400 km/h. The
force
> of impact  at  the foam must have been much greater than that, given the
> accelaration and velocity of the shuttle at the time. Any thoughts anyone?
>
> Tom
>
>
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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 07:33:45 +1100
 at : Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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The damage that occurred early on would have got worse as the launch
continued,  at  continuous vibration and dynamic pressure and thermal
effects.  It is possible that the damage may have weakened the support
mounts for the U shaped heat absorbing section on the leading edge of
the wing.  In short, the condition of the wing may have been far more
serious than was visually apparent in orbit.
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 at : jindivik at optusnet.com.au
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To: "aussie-weather  at  world . std . com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 07:36:51 +1100
Subject: Re: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
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Hi Ken,

Like I said, I am no expert.


> Ken Ring <ken at weatherman.co.nz> wrote:
> 
> Chris
> Fair comment. Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was
> about
> 0.7km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high, the earth is about
> 13,000km
> wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km on a few minutes.
> So
> Shuttle wasn't that high up and in fact low enough to encounter the
> friction-heating effect or wouldn't have caught fire. Fire only
> happens
> where there's enough oxygen.

If you want to get really technical, or extremly technical for my brain, the sun is in 
a region of relativly low oxygen, but thats burning like a sun of a gun, if you will 
excuss the pun.  As it has been said already, the shuttle burned up but it isn't 
clear if it actually caught fire or not.

> It is a problem for aviation because there are lots of accidents that
> are
> unexplained but they just leave it at that. The reluctance to
> attribute
> anything to the moon goes back 300 years and is more to do with
> religious
> dogma and politics rather than science, which is why they won't be
> looking
> at the moon anytime soon. It's the same with weather forecasting.

I totally understand the reluctance of some sections of the scientific community to 
explain accidents to the effects of the moon, but surely if they can attribute some 
landing accidents to windshear they would have no problem attributing some 
accidents to a violent tidal airflow.  But on the subject, wouldn't a tidal airflow of a 
size and magnitude enought to effect the Shuttles re-entry have some pretty major 
effects on aviation and ground life at the same time?

> Interesting about the parachutist, but of course one report  at  one
> jump
> doesn't tell us much. Jet streams occur around 35,000 feet. When
> Glaisher
> ballooned at 37,000 feet in 1862 he became unconscious and almost
> paralysed.
> One can't help wondering if the parachutist also suffered mentally
> somewhat
> at 100,000 feet, and therefore if his reporting memory was reliable!

As it was a series of tests, the particular jump I mentioned was one of three that 
Joseph Kittinger made as well as about 8 being made by other jumpers, to test 
the suitability for use by astronauts they had to be wearing what the astronauts 
would be wearing.  A side effect of the parachute tests was that they also proved 
the reliability of the suits worn by the astronauts.

Best Regards,

Chris

> cheers
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:40 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> 
> > Ken, I can't say that your wrong, don't know enough to say that,
> but my
> > understanding of the upper atmosphere where the Shuttle was at the
> time
> the
> > air isn't dense enough.  I can understand the if what you
> hypothesis is
> > correct, in the dense lower air where Dash 8's are usually found
> playing,
> > but up in the very extremities of the atmosphere?
> >
> > I saw an interview a while ago with a Joseph W Kittinger, who in
> 1960
> > established a World record for the longest freefall when he jumped
>  at  a
> > balloon at 102,800ft and opened his parachute at 18,000ft.	He said
> in the
> > interview that he freefell for four and a half minutes but didn't
> hear or
> > feel any wind for the first minute and a half.  He said it almost
> felt
> like
> > he was hanging there as there was no sensation of falling because
> of the
> > lack of air and wind.  The purpose of the jump was to test
> parachutes for
> > the space program to see if they could get a design the astronauts
> could
> use
> > if they had to bail out of their modules at high altitudes.
> >
> > That and the fact that there would have to be thousands of
> extremely lucky
> > pilots and passengers across the world if this is such a big
> problem for
> > aviation.  There are hundreds of aircraft in the air each minute of
> every
> > day around the world.  If these king airtides are such a factor,
> surely
> > there would be more accidents.
> >
> > Ken, I am not saying your wrong and I don't want to get into the
> same type
> > of conversation that has happened here previously, but to say that
> this is
> > what happened to the Shuttle without taking other factors into
> account is
> > jumping the gun I feel.
> >
> > Chris
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 10:17 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> >
> >
> > > I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly
> extensive
> > article
> > > on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708
> in NZ.
> It
> > > can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the
> heading
> "Ansett
> > > 708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within
> the hour
> > of
> > > a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge
> turbulence.
> Many
> > > unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other
> moon-event
> > > times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will
> one day
> > > have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.
> > >
> > > > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
> problem
> > > before.
> > > This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially
> when
> > that
> > > pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for
> something I am
> > > sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked
> for
> it".
> > > When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
> > >
> > > Ken Ring
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >  at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> > >
> > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
> problem
> > > > before.
> > > > >
> > > > well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur
> around
> > > > certain moon events.
> > > > I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend,
> thats
> all.
> > > > Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> > > > Brian
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
> body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>  
> > > >
> > >
> > > 
> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
> of
> your
> > >  message.
> > > 
> >
> > 
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >
> 
> 
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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 08:42:06 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Yes, Sorry Ken - 

"Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was about 0.7km high, ... "

that should have read about 70km up (not 0.7km), or more precisely 63km  at 
reports. Should have corrected it earlier but the error seemed so obvious,
surprised nobody pointed it out.

Neville

>  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 03:20:37 +1300
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> Chris
> Fair comment. Firstly, according to Neville Gibb, The shuttle was about
> 0.7km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high, the earth is about 13,000km
> wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km on a few minutes. So
> Shuttle wasn't that high up and in fact low enough to encounter the
> friction-heating effect or wouldn't have caught fire. Fire only happens
> where there's enough oxygen.
> It is a problem for aviation because there are lots of accidents that are
> unexplained but they just leave it at that. The reluctance to attribute
> anything to the moon goes back 300 years and is more to do with religious
> dogma and politics rather than science, which is why they won't be looking
> at the moon anytime soon. It's the same with weather forecasting.
> Interesting about the parachutist, but of course one report  at  one jump
> doesn't tell us much. Jet streams occur around 35,000 feet. When Glaisher
> ballooned at 37,000 feet in 1862 he became unconscious and almost paralysed.
> One can't help wondering if the parachutist also suffered mentally somewhat
> at 100,000 feet, and therefore if his reporting memory was reliable!
> cheers
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 11:40 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> 
>> Ken, I can't say that your wrong, don't know enough to say that, but my
>> understanding of the upper atmosphere where the Shuttle was at the time
> the
>> air isn't dense enough.  I can understand the if what you hypothesis is
>> correct, in the dense lower air where Dash 8's are usually found playing,
>> but up in the very extremities of the atmosphere?
>> 
>> I saw an interview a while ago with a Joseph W Kittinger, who in 1960
>> established a World record for the longest freefall when he jumped  at  a
>> balloon at 102,800ft and opened his parachute at 18,000ft.  He said in the
>> interview that he freefell for four and a half minutes but didn't hear or
>> feel any wind for the first minute and a half.  He said it almost felt
> like
>> he was hanging there as there was no sensation of falling because of the
>> lack of air and wind.  The purpose of the jump was to test parachutes for
>> the space program to see if they could get a design the astronauts could
> use
>> if they had to bail out of their modules at high altitudes.
>> 
>> That and the fact that there would have to be thousands of extremely lucky
>> pilots and passengers across the world if this is such a big problem for
>> aviation.  There are hundreds of aircraft in the air each minute of every
>> day around the world.  If these king airtides are such a factor, surely
>> there would be more accidents.
>> 
>> Ken, I am not saying your wrong and I don't want to get into the same type
>> of conversation that has happened here previously, but to say that this is
>> what happened to the Shuttle without taking other factors into account is
>> jumping the gun I feel.
>> 
>> Chris
>> 
>> ----- Original Message -----
>>  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
>> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 10:17 PM
>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>> 
>> 
>>> I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive
>> article
>>> on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ.
> It
>>> can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading
> "Ansett
>>> 708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour
>> of
>>> a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence.
> Many
>>> unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
>>> times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
>>> have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.
>>> 
>>>>> The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
> problem
>>> before.
>>> This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when
>> that
>>> pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
>>> sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for
> it".
>>> When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
>>> 
>>> Ken Ring
>>> www.predictweather.com
>>> 
>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>  at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
>>> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>>> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
>>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>>> 
>>> 
>>>>> 
>>>>> The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a
> problem
>>>> before.
>>>>> 
>>>> well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
>>>> certain moon events.
>>>> I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats
> all.
>>>> Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
>>>> Brian
>>>> 
>>>> 
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>> your
>>>> message.
>>> 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>>> 
>>> 
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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 10:19:16 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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i read it :)
it was very informative :)

Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Neville Gibb" <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:56 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> Thank you David
>
> for posting that comprehensive rather official 'Space Flight Now' URL
> report. Although rather lengthy it does shed a lot of light on the matter.
I
> wonder if anyone here has bothered reading it, so I'll post it again -
>
> http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030207avweek/
>
> Neville
>
>
>
> >  at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
> > Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:59:05 +1000
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> >
> > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> > Hash: SHA1
> >
> > On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 04:20 pm, Kevin Phyland wrote this piece of wisdom:
> >> I was NOT going to reply to this thread (which probably better belongs
on a
> >> "Conspiracy Theory" list than a weather one) but I have to just have
> >> 2.2cents worth for the hell of it...
> >
> > I'd like to note the "Which is more likely" rule and then point you at
this
> > article, which seems to have the cause pinpointed
> > http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030207avweek/
> >
> > As such it is a design flaw, and I don't think we'll see the shuttle
ever fly
> > again. Hopefully they will replace it with a better ssto.
> >
> > David
> >
> > - --
> > If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you
teach
> > them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.
> >
> > -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
> > Version: GnuPG v1.2.1 (GNU/Linux)
> >
> > iD8DBQE+Q1k5ZOfFgbBAbXARAvX/AJ98HYEJLBYog7Kg1CJdETOLtTneqgCffT/3
> > c+aLcRZADqZXyeug+Ov90yM=
> > =8vn4
> > -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 09:56:57 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Thank you David

for posting that comprehensive rather official 'Space Flight Now' URL
report. Although rather lengthy it does shed a lot of light on the matter. I
wonder if anyone here has bothered reading it, so I'll post it again -

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030207avweek/

Neville



>  at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 16:59:05 +1000
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
> Hash: SHA1
> 
> On Fri, 7 Feb 2003 04:20 pm, Kevin Phyland wrote this piece of wisdom:
>> I was NOT going to reply to this thread (which probably better belongs on a
>> "Conspiracy Theory" list than a weather one) but I have to just have
>> 2.2cents worth for the hell of it...
> 
> I'd like to note the "Which is more likely" rule and then point you at this
> article, which seems to have the cause pinpointed
> http://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/sts107/030207avweek/
> 
> As such it is a design flaw, and I don't think we'll see the shuttle ever fly
> again. Hopefully they will replace it with a better ssto.
> 
> David
> 
> - -- 
> If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach
> them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.
> 
> -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
> Version: GnuPG v1.2.1 (GNU/Linux)
> 
> iD8DBQE+Q1k5ZOfFgbBAbXARAvX/AJ98HYEJLBYog7Kg1CJdETOLtTneqgCffT/3
> c+aLcRZADqZXyeug+Ov90yM=
> =8vn4
> -----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
> 
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: The Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:20:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Maybe after 20 odd years of service and extreme stresses of 
course, that maybe it had a metal fatigue problem and entering the atmosphere it 
decided to break up???????</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're living
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:21:49 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Here where I live goes well below zero in winter and into the 40's in
summer.
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 3:39 AM
Subject: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're living


> Here's my current situation:
>
> My current residence: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
> Feb 7th min. temp : -20C
>
> My home town: Perth, WA, Australia
> Feb 7th max temp: +36C
>
> Difference: 56C !!!!
>
>
> My record:
>
> Madison, WI, Dec 25th, 2000, min temp: -29.4C
> Perth, WA, Dec 25th, 2000, max temp: 38.7c
> Difference: 68.1C !!!!!
>
>
> Anyone got some good ones? It could be temp -related, or rain, or wind
etc.
>
> Tom
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 10:12:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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I appreciate all of the discussions on this tragedy.  I would just like a
minute to clarify a couple of points in regard to what I initially put
forward, before the topic is closed.

When I pointed out the anomalies in regard to the sun and geomagnetic
conditions, I did so to create query.  I was not indicating that the solar
atmosphere *caused* the tragedy .... but I was definitely wanting people to
look at the situation that there were incredible anomalies taking place,
concurrent with the times connected to Columbia.  In actual fact, I stated
that the G4 and G5 conditions only caused : "Spacecraft operations: minor
impact on satellite operations possible."

I pre-empted my post by saying that I was approaching things  at  a
*non-conforming* angle ... and as such, expected there to be controversy.
Science is a wonderful area of interest, but often people are *afraid* to
delve into the unknown, but instead stay safely with theories and previous
precedents that have been set.  To my way of thinking, science promotes
continual question and we must be prepared to look at other aspects that may
not even *fit* any previous theories !

The media have told  the world that the area of concern was the damage
caused by the tile coming off at launch.  The media have told us all many,
many things in our lives .... how many times are they incorrect ?  I guess
my point here is that as if NASA are going to admit that something out of
the ordinary was apparent in the atmosphere at the time of the tragedy !!
Red Herrings are critical for them to keep the attention away  at  what may
have been taking place.  I have read many articles that discuss the facts
that the tile was not a serious enough concern to have created the tragedy.
Naturally, the media and NASA have played this angle to the fullest because
that is where they want people to keep looking.

Discrepancies as to the huge explosion that took place point away  at  the
tile being the cause.  Debris was found  at  Texas.to California  ... a vast
area.  If one looks at the radar shots on the media, they are all showing
the debris field above Shreveport Louisiana, and are taken mainly 1 1/2 to 2
hours after the explosion.  This is not relevant to the cause ... simply the
repercussions of the event.

Despite the media spin of an unfortunate accident, the nature of the crash
of Columbia was evident  at  eyewitness accounts. The telltale sonic boom
 at  the deployment of the weapon was so strong: "It was like a car hitting
the house or an explosion. It shook that much," .... is one report in the
news.  Media reports put the noise down to the effects of the shuttle
break-up, but this is clearly spurious. "The shuttle was gliding at 203,000
feet.  Aircraft-generated sonic booms 40 miles up in super-thin air do not
shake homes at ground level.  Nor do small debris parts.  Just try
generating air pressure changes at ground level when 40 miles up - no matter
how fast you are going."

Just after a previous shuttle launch in November, 1985 a sonic boom occurred
over the launch site, after the shuttle had departed.  The same effects took
place on least two previous shuttle launches.  Scalar expert T. E. Bearden
put these down to testing of the weapons. Source material: Scientist Tom
Bearden, Cheniere.Org - http://www.cheniere.org/toc.html

 "The scalar boom effect is caused in a way similar to a thunderstorm.  In
that case the lightning cleaves apart large masses of air which boom.  The
scalar weapon can generate a massive version of the same effect.  This is
not a "beam" weapon like the one used to down the two WTC towers.  It
remotely produces local space-time distortion effects by connecting through
the complex plane around which all space-time is wrapped."

"So it is quite possible that an unfortunate but normal type of accident is
what destroyed the shuttle; such accidents do happen unavoidably, in spite
of the best intentions and efforts of everyone, and the shuttles are aging.
It is also possible that a little burst of EM energy deliberately placed on
that shuttle,  at  a Yakuza scalar interferometer, could have initiated the
break-up and catastrophic failure of the vehicle."

"...... sound itself doesn't carry through space, but a bunch of EM pulses
let loose  at  an explosion, etc. does, and when it enters the atmosphere it
retranslates into sound that is representative of what happened out there."
http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/

Of course, this opens the topic of just how the weather is being manipulated
by this equipment !!!!!!!!! .... if anybody chooses to follow that angle :)

Love
Sha


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:07:44 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
X-Mailer: IncrediMail 2001 (1800838)
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
X-FID: FLAVOR00-NONE-0000-0000-000000000000
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV>quotes by sha,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&lt;"This is not a "beam" weapon like the one used to down the two WTC towers."&gt;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>WHAT???????</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>couldn't the sonic booms have been caused by the debris when it entered more dense atmosphere closer to earth.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Saturday, 8 February 2003 10:53:15 AM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie Weather</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>I appreciate all of the discussions on this tragedy. I would just like a<BR>minute to clarify a couple of points in regard to what I initially put<BR>forward, before the topic is closed.<BR><BR>When I pointed out the anomalies in regard to the sun and geomagnetic<BR>conditions, I did so to create query. I was not indicating that the solar<BR>atmosphere *caused* the tragedy .... but I was definitely wanting people to<BR>look at the situation that there were incredible anomalies taking place,<BR>concurrent with the times connected to Columbia. In actual fact, I stated<BR>that the G4 and G5 conditions only caused : "Spacecraft operations: minor<BR>impact on satellite operations possible."<BR><BR>I pre-empted my post by saying that I was approaching things  at  a<BR>*non-conforming* angle ... and as such, expected there to be controversy.<BR>Science is a wonderful area of interest, but often people are *afraid* to<BR>delve into the unknown, but instead stay safely with theories and previous<BR>precedents that have been set. To my way of thinking, science promotes<BR>continual question and we must be prepared to look at other aspects that may<BR>not even *fit* any previous theories !<BR><BR>The media have told the world that the area of concern was the damage<BR>caused by the tile coming off at launch. The media have told us all many,<BR>many things in our lives .... how many times are they incorrect ? I guess<BR>my point here is that as if NASA are going to admit that something out of<BR>the ordinary was apparent in the atmosphere at the time of the tragedy !!<BR>Red Herrings are critical for them to keep the attention away  at  what may<BR>have been taking place. I have read many articles that discuss the facts<BR>that the tile was not a serious enough concern to have created the tragedy.<BR>Naturally, the media and NASA have played this angle to the fullest because<BR>that is where they want people to keep looking.<BR><BR>Discrepancies as to the huge explosion that took place point away  at  the<BRRe aus-wx Columbia Shuttle.ems
>tile being the cause. Debris was found  at  Texas.to California ... a vast<BR>area. If one looks at the radar shots on the media, they are all showing<BR>the debris field above Shreveport Louisiana, and are taken mainly 1 1/2 to 2<BR>hours after the explosion. This is not relevant to the cause ... simply the<BR>repercussions of the event.<BR><BR>Despite the media spin of an unfortunate accident, the nature of the crash<BR>of Columbia was evident  at  eyewitness accounts. The telltale sonic boom<BR> at  the deployment of the weapon was so strong: "It was like a car hitting<BR>the house or an explosion. It shook that much," .... is one report in the<BR>news. Media reports put the noise down to the effects of the shuttle<BR>break-up, but this is clearly spurious. "The shuttle was gliding at 203,000<BR>feet. Aircraft-generated sonic booms 40 miles up in super-thin air do not<BR>shake homes at ground level. Nor do small debris parts. Just try<BR>generating air pressure changes at ground level when 40 miles up - no matter<BR>how fast you are going."<BR><BR>Just after a previous shuttle launch in November, 1985 a sonic boom occurred<BR>over the launch site, after the shuttle had departed. The same effects took<BR>place on least two previous shuttle launches. Scalar expert T. E. Bearden<BR>put these down to testing of the weapons. Source material: Scientist Tom<BR>Bearden, Cheniere.Org - <A href="http://www.cheniere.org/toc.html">http://www.cheniere.org/toc.html</A><BR><BR>"The scalar boom effect is caused in a way similar to a thunderstorm. In<BR>that case the lightning cleaves apart large masses of air which boom. The<BR>scalar weapon can generate a massive version of the same effect. This is<BR>not a "beam" weapon like the one used to down the two WTC towers. It<BR>remotely produces local space-time distortion effects by connecting through<BR>the complex plane around which all space-time is wrapped."<BR><BR>"So it is quite possible that an unfortunate but normal type of accident is<BR>what destroyed the shuttle; suchRe aus-wx Columbia Shuttle.ems
 accidents do happen unavoidably, in spite<BR>of the best intentions and efforts of everyone, and the shuttles are aging.<BR>It is also possible that a little burst of EM energy deliberately placed on<BR>that shuttle,  at  a Yakuza scalar interferometer, could have initiated the<BR>break-up and catastrophic failure of the vehicle."<BR><BR>"...... sound itself doesn't carry through space, but a bunch of EM pulses<BR>let loose  at  an explosion, etc. does, and when it enters the atmosphere it<BR>retranslates into sound that is representative of what happened out there."<BR><A href="http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/">http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/</A><BR><BR>Of course, this opens the topic of just how the weather is being manipulated<BR>by this equipment !!!!!!!!! .... if anybody chooses to follow that angle :)<BR><BR>Love<BR>Sha<BR><BR><BR>---<BR>Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.<BR>Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A href="http://www.grisoft.com">http://www.grisoft.com</A>).<BR>Version: 6.0.449 / Virus Database: 251 - Release Date: 27/01/2003<BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:01:24 +1000
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<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Not according to all I have read 
Richard.&nbsp; One thing of note on this is that the booms were heard at the 
quoted time of the *accident* .... 8.00 CST, but the radar screens don't show 
the debris trail for another 1 or 2 hours ....... why ???&nbsp; I don't know the 
answer to that one ??</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Love</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Sha</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A 
title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
Modistach</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:37 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
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      <DIV>quotes by sha,</DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>&lt;"This is not a "beam" weapon like the one used to down the two 
      WTC towers."&gt;</DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>WHAT???????</DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>couldn't the sonic booms have been caused by the debris when it 
      entered more dense atmosphere closer to earth.</DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV>richard</DIV>
      <DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus 
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      <DIV><BR>&nbsp;. </DIV></TD></TR>
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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 12:03:24 +1100
 at : Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
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The only sensible connection between the solar activity and the event
that I can deduce is the rather simple and obvious one that everybody
has avoided.  The thin upper atmosphere is mostly hot ionized gas, of
very low density.  During solar flares etc these gasses are excited and
heated, and they expand much much higher than normal.  Remember that the
re-entry path was calculated for "normal" conditions.  If the gas was
hotter than normal, and extending up higher than normal, the effects on
the shuttle would have been:-
(a)	Earlier onset of gas heating on re-entry at a higher altitude and
much higher speed,
(b)	Note, Heat build up is a function of speed cubed,
(c)	The length of flight through the expanded gas would be longer, at
higher than normal speeds relative to the normal onset of aerodynamic
drag and dynamic pressures, and of course, heating.
(d)	Producing drag sooner than expected / wanted, would have started to
force the shuttle away  at  the pre computed trajectory, which would
have forced the flight control computers to correct sooner and more
often, trying to maintain the pre computed trajectory to Kennedy.
(e)	Since the trajectory can only be controlled by controlling the drag,
which can only be controlled by the roll angle, and increasing the roll
angle produces more drag and heat, this active controlling / manoeuvring
by the computers would have exacerbated the heat build-up.
(f)	Apparently the pilots were aware that the flight control system was
issuing many more "inputs" than usual.
(g)	There is evidence that on two previous shuttle flights some years
ago, there were also an "abnormal" number of corrections by the
computers, and the shuttle cross range error did become quite large, and
they did have to "fly it back to the trajectory", but apparently the
errors were not too great, so nobody seems to have done much about
getting to the bottom of why it happened.  What solar activity was
current at the time of these events I do not know.  Perhaps a critical
"heads up" warning was missed ?
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Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:48:41 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>yep, no probs sha, just a query.</DIV>
<DIV>you seem to be checking things out fairly deeply</DIV>
<DIV>i find your insight into other possibilities&nbsp; very interesting.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
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<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Saturday, 8 February 2003 11:41:41 AM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Not according to all I have read Richard.&nbsp; One thing of note on this is that the booms were heard at the quoted time of the *accident* .... 8.00 CST, but the radar screens don't show the debris trail for another 1 or 2 hours ....... why ???&nbsp; I don't know the answer to that one ??</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Love</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4>Sha</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard Modistach</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:37 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
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<DIV>quotes by sha,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&lt;"This is not a "beam" weapon like the one used to down the two WTC towers."&gt;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>WHAT???????</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>couldn't the sonic booms have been caused by the debris when it entered more dense atmosphere closer to earth.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;. </DIV></TD></TR>
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 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:23:32 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:01 am, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> Not according to all I have read Richard.  One thing of note on this is
> that the booms were heard at the quoted time of the *accident* .... 8.00
> CST, but the radar screens don't show the debris trail for another 1 or 2
> hours ....... why ???  I don't know the answer to that one ??

Because what you are seeing on radar is dust, paper, insulation etc, not the 
debris. The debris fell very quickly. The radar in that region only scans as 
high as 20000 ft. Anything above that is not on radar. By the time the dust 
and bits of paper, insulation and stuff fell through the atmosphere it would 
take a few hours.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:35:48 +1000
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<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>No Neville ........ they are all using UTC which 
is GMT - standard world time.&nbsp; The tragedy occurred at 14:00 UTC or 8 am 
CST and 9 am EST.&nbsp; I haven't yet finished my radar page, but there is a 
screen shot on this page of mine, <A 
href="http://www.geocities.com/serpentine_moon/questions">http://www.geocities.com/serpentine_moon/questions</A>&nbsp;, 
taken at 15:43 UTC.&nbsp; This shows the most debris  at  any of the shots, and 
yet it is an hour and a half after the explosion ?</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>Love</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>Sha</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A 
title=nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz">Neville Gibb</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 12:51 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Sha <BR><BR>Could it be that the radar screens show EST rather than CST. 
There's an hour difference there. Just a thought. I haven't seen 
them.<BR><BR>Neville</DIV>
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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:39:21 +1000
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I have just mentioned in an email just prior to this one, a link to a radar
shot I am showing on one of my pages David.  It shows the most *stuff* an
hour and a half afterwards and I wondered why.

If it is showing the dust, etc .... that's an awful lot of dust !!!!

Can you give any more insight to this please ?

Love
Sha


----- Original Message -----
 at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 12:23 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle


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On Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:01 am, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> Not according to all I have read Richard.  One thing of note on this is
> that the booms were heard at the quoted time of the *accident* .... 8.00
> CST, but the radar screens don't show the debris trail for another 1 or 2
> hours ....... why ???  I don't know the answer to that one ??

Because what you are seeing on radar is dust, paper, insulation etc, not the
debris. The debris fell very quickly. The radar in that region only scans as
high as 20000 ft. Anything above that is not on radar. By the time the dust
and bits of paper, insulation and stuff fell through the atmosphere it would
take a few hours.

David




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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 14:51:28 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
Hi Sha <BR>
<BR>
Could it be that the radar screens show EST rather than CST. There's an hour difference there. Just a thought. I haven't seen them.<BR>
<BR>
Neville<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Sha&quot; &lt;shambhala at hotkey.net.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Sat, 8 Feb 2003 11:01:24 +1000<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Not according to all I have read Richard. &nbsp;One thing of note on this is that the booms were heard at the quoted time of the *accident* .... 8.00 CST, but the radar screens don't show the debris trail for another 1 or 2 hours ....... why ??? &nbsp;I don't know the answer to that one ??<BR>
</I></B></FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Love<BR>
Sha<BR>
</I></B></FONT> <BR>
----- Original Message ----- <BR>
<B> at :</B> Richard Modistach &lt;mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>To:</B> aussie-weather at world.std.com <BR>
<B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:37 AM<BR>
<B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle<BR>
<BR>
quotes by sha,<BR>
<BR>
&lt;&quot;This is not a &quot;beam&quot; weapon like the one used to down the two WTC towers.&quot;&gt;<BR>
<BR>
WHAT???????<BR>
<BR>
couldn't the sonic booms have been caused by the debris when it entered more dense atmosphere closer to earth.<BR>
<BR>
richard<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
. <BR>
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</x-html>

 at : David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:56:08 +1000
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
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On Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:39 pm, Sha wrote this piece of wisdom:
> If it is showing the dust, etc .... that's an awful lot of dust !!!!
>
> Can you give any more insight to this please ?

Firstly the radar is configured to see drops of water. Thus anything solid is 
going to appear far more "bright" on weather radar. There's lots of stuff 
like insulation, papers, patches, clothes, fabrics, body parts, that were 
shredded by the hypersonic airflows, along with dust  at  pulverised parts 
and stuff. Although the density isn't huge, maybe on item per 100 metres sq, 
on weather radar that is going appear quite brightly. 

I can't remember the image, but I think some migrations of birds also appear 
brightly on radar.

David

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 14:36:32 +1100
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Hi Sue,

To your query:

>may I ask if you've been
>publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?

I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of the
Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL aviation
customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)

>what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
>declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?

The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for a
ride.

I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not inland.
Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
parameters are found here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply the
clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.

>You sound very
>confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:

1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.

2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size of
the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead forecast
do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a particular
location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is same
as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value is
simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
statistical program can work out what this value would be.

3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc, will
at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
 at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad odds.

4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!

5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have done
so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling deg
days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat climatology.
Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
forecasts.

6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques, combined
with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.

Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It doesn't
mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected error.
Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.

Best wishes,
tuan




>Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
>far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing? No
>details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating lunar
>declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
>confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
>publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>Suze =^. .^=


>snip


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 at : "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 13:27:54 +0930
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Ever heard the term "pride cometh before BIG fall"......? I look forward to
what the conditions will be. I will sya one thing tho - did not Ken predict
back a few months ago about the current rain scenario in Qld / East Coast
etc?

As for the moon - lets not have jibes at what other people believe. YOU dont
know it all..... even though you may think you do. If the moon has such an
effect on the massive bodies of water that cover this planet, then it must
have an effect on the weather.

Even a person with an inkling of science could agree with that......

Paul

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 1:06 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


> Hi Sue,
>
> To your query:
>
> >may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>
> I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
the
> Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
> All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
aviation
> customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
> beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
>
> >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
>
> The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride.
>
> I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
inland.
> Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
> rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> parameters are found here
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
the
> clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
>
> >You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
>
> 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
> climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
>
> 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
> However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
of
> the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
forecast
> do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
particular
> location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
> technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
same
> as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value
is
> simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
> location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> statistical program can work out what this value would be.
>
> 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
will
> at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
>  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
odds.
>
> 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
> expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
> increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
> summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
>
> 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
> first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
done
> so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
deg
> days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
climatology.
> Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> forecasts.
>
> 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
> for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
combined
> with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
>
> Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
doesn't
> mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
error.
> Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
>
> Best wishes,
> tuan
>
>
>
>
> >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
> >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing?
No
> >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >Suze =^. .^=
>
>
> >snip
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 15:15:00 +1100
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Hi all,

[By Ken]
>The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour of
>a rising new moon,

I would be interested if anyone can explain to me how the moon can produce a
noticeable air tide.?

And how can such a (king) airtide destroyed the shuttle?
 at  where I sit, it appears that the uneven air drag (due to damage to left
wing) caused the shuttle to careered(sp) out of control. The damage to left
wing could be an existing fault already (due to wear & tear) but was
exasperated by falling foam at lift off and/or space junk during re-entry. I
am sure systematic testing discover the most probable reason shortly.

Given the current available info, other vastly different theories appear to
violate Occam's Razor, as mentioned already.


>...which has a potential to produce huge turbulence

This is very new to me. If you have any more info on this theory Ken, I am
interested in finding out more about this. I am sure the aviation industry
would be as well. If you have some solid theory, proof evidence to back up
the claims, they would be willing to grant you lots of money for research.

tuan




>I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive article
>on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ. It
>can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading "Ansett
>708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour of
>a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence. Many
>unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
>times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
>have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.

>> > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
>before.
>This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when that
>pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
>sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for it".
>When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
>
>Ken Ring
>www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> >
> > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> before.
> >
> well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
> certain moon events.
> I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats all.
> Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> Brian
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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X-Originating-IP: [144.134.113.202]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 17:01:02 +1100
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<x-flowed>

hi all,
We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe t'storm 
moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It started 
about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south to 
66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3 in 
minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains 
recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but  B o m thinks 
the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and 
sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on the 
hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as 
causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of data 
when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old 
thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the storm 
with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we are on 
a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
Gavin O'Brien
Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.



_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to  
http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 17:16:26 +1100
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I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in a
row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
Some shots are here
 www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/

Simon
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.


>
> hi all,
> We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe t'storm
> moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It
started
> about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south to
> 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3
in
> minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains
> recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but  B o m
thinks
> the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and
> sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on
the
> hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as
> causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of data
> when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
> thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the storm
> with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we are
on
> a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
> Gavin O'Brien
> Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>


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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 18:05:20 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday
  afternoon.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 05:16 PM 8/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:

>I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in a
>row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
>really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
>Some shots are here
>  www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/

At least you got to see that much....  I'm gonna have to watch several 
re-runs of Twister to treat my SDS. :-/

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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X-Originating-IP: [203.220.169.85]
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 18:10:33 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2003 07:10:34.0324 (UTC) FILETIME=[2C52C140:01C2CF41]
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<x-flowed>

Hi every1,

In the interests of fair play and although I am skeptical it would be remiss 
of me if I did not forward this email on:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/02/06/MN22145.DTL&type=science

Cheers,
Kevin  at  Wycheproof.






_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to  
http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral

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Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 19:13:14 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
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<DIV>uh oh, just been looking at the radar for canberra, looks like theyre getting plastered.</DIV>
<DIV>anyone got any idea of rainfall rates\totals so far,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>isn't too much rain going to stuff the water supply!!!!!????</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Saturday, 8 February 2003 4:53:50 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in a<BR>row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms<BR>really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...<BR>Some shots are here<BR><A href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/">www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/</A><BR><BR>Simon<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR> at : "Gavin O'Brien" &lt;<A href="mailto:mrcenterprises at hotmail.com">mrcenterprises at hotmail.com</A>&gt;<BR>To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM<BR>Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.<BR><BR><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; hi all,<BR>&gt; We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe t'storm<BR>&gt; moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It<BR>started<BR>&gt; about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south to<BR>&gt; 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3<BR>in<BR>&gt; minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains<BR>&gt; recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but B o m<BR>thinks<BR>&gt; the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and<BR>&gt; sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on<BR>the<BR>&gt; hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as<BR>&gt; causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of data<BR>&gt; when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old<BR>&gt; thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the storm<BR>&gt; with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we are<BR>on<BR>&gt; a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.<BR>&gt; Gavin O'Brien<BR>&gt; Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; ________________________________________________________________Re aus-wx Severe Thunderstorm.ems
_<BR>&gt; Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to<BR>&gt; <A href="http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral">http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>&gt; message.<BR>&gt; <A href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 18:47:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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Thanks for posting this Kevin, as I didn't like to push things too far, but
I am so glad you did.  I saw the same report on a few different sites.

I have taken an interest in these sprites and elves ... actually I feel sure
that I posted to this list something about them being over Australia only
days before the shuttle tragedy.  The sad irony of this is that these very
phenomena were one of the Columbia's experiments !!

Here is another site that has a few articles on the high=altitude
possibilities : http://www.electricwarrior.com/index.htm  go to» "Shuttle
Sparks High-Altitude Electrophysics "

Love
Sha

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle



Hi every1,

In the interests of fair play and although I am skeptical it would be remiss
of me if I did not forward this email on:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/02/06/MN22145.DTL&type
=science

Cheers,
Kevin  at  Wycheproof.



---
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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 21:55:40 +1300
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before you do, get Ken to lay down his definations of his words he uses to
forecast the weather.
i.e, showers, rain, cloud, etc.
Ken needs to write down what he counts as still being corrrect for the
weather for that day.
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather


> >The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride..It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can
beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them.."
>
> Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some
> have found that lunar forecasts work for them, so you cannot speak for
> everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to continually
> make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not
> rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods. Perhaps you need to
learn
> that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold
all
> the answers.
> I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but solid
> test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia,
well
> beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your
averages
> etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for
the
> potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be too
> difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are
you
> game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout off..?
> cheers
> Ken Ring
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 4:36 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
> > Hi Sue,
> >
> > To your query:
> >
> > >may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >
> > I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> > involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
> the
> > Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> > under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US &
England.
> > All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
> aviation
> > customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on
average,
> > beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> > each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
> >
> > >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're
incorporating
> > lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
> >
> > The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
what
> > some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself
for
> a
> > ride.
> >
> > I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
> inland.
> > Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar
22,
> > rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> > parameters are found here
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> > There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
> the
> > clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
> >
> > >You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> > Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> > For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
> >
> > 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques -
persistence,
> > climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> > Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> > because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
> >
> > 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say
1deg).
> > However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
> of
> > the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
> forecast
> > do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> > days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> > limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
> particular
> > location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the
climatology
> > technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
> same
> > as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error
value
> is
> > simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the
interested
> > location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> > statistical program can work out what this value would be.
> >
> > 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> > 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
> will
> > at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> > higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> > found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique
apart
> >  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
> odds.
> >
> > 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve
the
> > expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly
by
> > increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage.
In
> > summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> > anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
> >
> > 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> > clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like
the
> > first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
> done
> > so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
> deg
> > days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
> climatology.
> > Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> > clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> > only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> > forecasts.
> >
> > 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who
forecast
> > for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
> combined
> > with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
> >
> > Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
> doesn't
> > mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
> error.
> > Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > tuan
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters
so
> > >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're
ustilsing?
> No
> > >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> > >Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
> > >snip
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 19:56:38 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2723.2500" name=GENERATOR><!--IncrdiXMLRemarkStart>
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style="BACKGROUND-POSITION: 0px 0px; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 5px 10px 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" 
bgColor=#ffffff background="" scroll=yes ORGYPOS="0" X-FVER="3.0">
<DIV><FONT size=2>Not much by the look of this:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/nsw/southcoast.shtml">http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/nsw/southcoast.shtml</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>this is up to 7pm.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There was 52mm at Bathurst this afternoon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 7:43 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm 
  Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <TABLE id=INCREDIMAINTABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" 
    border=0><TBODY>
    <TR>
      <TD id=INCREDITEXTREGION 
      style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; CURSOR: auto; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" width="100%">
        <DIV>uh oh, just been looking at the radar for canberra, looks like 
        theyre getting plastered.</DIV>
        <DIV>anyone got any idea of rainfall rates\totals so far,</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>isn't too much rain going to stuff the water supply!!!!!????</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original 
        Message-------</I></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=receivestrings>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Saturday, 8 
        February 2003 4:53:50 PM</DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: 
        Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.</DIV></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for 
        the second day in a<BR>row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of 
        rain here. the storms<BR>really broke up over the bindabella's as per 
        usual...<BR>Some shots are here<BR><A 
        href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/">www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/</A><BR><BR>Simon<BR>----- 
        Original Message -----<BR> at : "Gavin O'Brien" &lt;<A 
        href="mailto:mrcenterprises at hotmail.com">mrcenterprises at hotmail.com</A>&gt;<BR>To: 
        &lt;<A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>Sent: 
        Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM<BR>Subject: aus-wx: Severe 
        Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.<BR><BR><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; hi 
        all,<BR>&gt; We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a 
        severe t'storm<BR>&gt; moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley 
        (Southern Canberra) It<BR>started<BR>&gt; about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 
        7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south to<BR>&gt; 66km/hr and small 
        hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3<BR>in<BR>&gt; 
        minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella 
        Plains<BR>&gt; recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm 
        but B o m<BR>thinks<BR>&gt; the raingauge was blocked. There was local 
        flash flooding of streets and<BR>&gt; sheet runoff on the hills leading 
        to some mud flows in drainage lines on<BR>the<BR>&gt; hills.Lightning 
        strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as<BR>&gt; causing 
        our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of 
        data<BR>&gt; when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the 
        old<BR>&gt; thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record 
        of the storm<BR>&gt; with out them as backup.There are some severe 
        T'storms to west and we are<BR>on<BR>&gt; a severe Thunderstorm 
        Watch.Any other reports welcome.<BR>&gt; Gavin O'Brien<BR>&gt; Southside 
        Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; 
        _________________________________________________________________<BR>&gt; 
        Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to<BR>&gt; <A 
        href="http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral">http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; 
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        your<BR>&gt; message.<BR>&gt; <A 
        href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To 
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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 22:13:54 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for a
ride..It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them.."

Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some
have found that lunar forecasts work for them, so you cannot speak for
everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to continually
make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not
rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods. Perhaps you need to learn
that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold all
the answers.
I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but solid
test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia, well
beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your averages
etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for the
potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be too
difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are you
game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout off..?
cheers
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 4:36 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


> Hi Sue,
>
> To your query:
>
> >may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>
> I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
the
> Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
> All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
aviation
> customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
> beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
>
> >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
>
> The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride.
>
> I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
inland.
> Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
> rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> parameters are found here
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
the
> clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
>
> >You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
>
> 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
> climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
>
> 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
> However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
of
> the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
forecast
> do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
particular
> location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
> technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
same
> as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value
is
> simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
> location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> statistical program can work out what this value would be.
>
> 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
will
> at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
>  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
odds.
>
> 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
> expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
> increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
> summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
>
> 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
> first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
done
> so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
deg
> days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
climatology.
> Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> forecasts.
>
> 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
> for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
combined
> with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
>
> Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
doesn't
> mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
error.
> Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
>
> Best wishes,
> tuan
>
>
>
>
> >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
> >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing?
No
> >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >Suze =^. .^=
>
>
> >snip
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 22:43:52 +1300
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Tuan

I think there is much claim now that other, unknown factors could have been
responsible for the Shuttle disaster. It will probably go into the bin of
all the other unexplained air accidents, whereby systems were found later to
have been in working order yet a tragedy still mysteriously occurred. You
only have to look up air accidents on any search engine and get truckloads
of reports. If you match these to where the moon was at location, I believe
a causality can be seen.

Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an airbulge,
akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in" when
the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon. When
the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the sea
change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination, lunar
equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
atmospheric conditions can be expected.

You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not developed
instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the barometer
for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the atmosphere(cf
height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any place,
which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric height,
which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar perigee.

The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides). It
also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far unexplained
air mishaps.

Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
reaction as you have expressed elsewhere – that any notion that the moon has
any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
investigation into it, but not before.

Cheers

Ken

www.predictweather.com





----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:15 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> Hi all,
>
> [By Ken]
> >The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour of
> >a rising new moon,
>
> I would be interested if anyone can explain to me how the moon can produce
a
> noticeable air tide.?
>
> And how can such a (king) airtide destroyed the shuttle?
> > at  where I sit, it appears that the uneven air drag (due to damage to
left
> wing) caused the shuttle to careered(sp) out of control. The damage to
left
> wing could be an existing fault already (due to wear & tear) but was
> exasperated by falling foam at lift off and/or space junk during re-entry.
I
> am sure systematic testing discover the most probable reason shortly.
>
> Given the current available info, other vastly different theories appear
to
> violate Occam's Razor, as mentioned already.
>
>
> >...which has a potential to produce huge turbulence
>
> This is very new to me. If you have any more info on this theory Ken, I am
> interested in finding out more about this. I am sure the aviation industry
> would be as well. If you have some solid theory, proof evidence to back up
> the claims, they would be willing to grant you lots of money for research.
>
> tuan
>
>
>
>
> >I totally agree with Brian and have put together a fairly extensive
article
> >on the role of the moon in air crashes, in particular Ansett 708 in NZ.
It
> >can be seen on my website www.predictweather.com under the heading
"Ansett
> >708". The shuttle sharply hit an incoming "king airtide" within the hour
of
> >a rising new moon, which has a potential to produce huge turbulence. Many
> >unexplained fatal aircrashes have occurred at this and other moon-event
> >times, something I believe aircraft accident investigations will one day
> >have to look into. This tragedy was at one of those times.
>
> >> > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> >before.
> >This is irrelevant. Not all cars hit the same pothole, especially when
that
> >pothole might be moving. If I go into a shop and ask for something I am
> >sometimes met with "we don't stock it because we never get asked for it".
> >When I say but I'M asking for it, it doesn't seem to count..
> >
> >Ken Ring
> >www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 6:46 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> > >
> > > The moon has risen every day for millenia, it hasn't caused a problem
> > before.
> > >
> > well, some research (limited) has shown more air crashes occur around
> > certain moon events.
> > I find it hard to believe, but there does seem to be a trend, thats all.
> > Interesting is how i see it, thats all!
> > Brian
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 22:49:53 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Very pertinent, Kevin. "Heavy rain and sleet over East Texas followed the
tragedy, hampering efforts to recover wreckage"(NZ Herald). This also is
suggestion of electrical atmospheric disturbance.
Ken
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 8:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle


>
> Hi every1,
>
> In the interests of fair play and although I am skeptical it would be
remiss
> of me if I did not forward this email on:
>
>
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/02/06/MN22145.DTL&type
=science
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin  at  Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 21:11:34 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
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<x-flowed>
At 10:43 PM 8/02/2003 +1300, you wrote:

>Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an airbulge,
>akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in" when
>the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon. When
>the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the sea
>change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination, lunar
>equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
>especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
>atmospheric conditions can be expected.

This makes sense to me.  Afterall, ocean tides and even land tides are well 
known phenomena.  In other planetary systems, land tides are very 
noticeable (e.g. Io orbiting Jupiter) and can cause extreme heating 
effects.  As the atmosphere is a lower density fluid than water, it is only 
common sense to expect it has tides.  And as you maintain, such tides would 
not show up significantly on a ground based barometer, due to the balance 
of forces involved (I would expect a _minor_ variation in barometric 
pressure though, because the forces are probably not perfectly in balance 
on the ground).

>You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not developed
>instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the barometer
>for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the atmosphere(cf
>height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any place,
>which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric height,
>which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar perigee.

The upper atmosphere is also subject to a number of variables.  Lunar tides 
are only one.  Solar activity is another (it's a known fact that Skylab was 
brought down to Earth earlier than expected due to a period of significant 
solar activity before its re-entry.  Lunar tide measurements would have to 
take these into account...  One crude way of detecting lunar tides might be 
to measure the drag on very low Earth orbiting satellites (could this be 
done using GPS?).   ISS might be another possibility, since it's affected 
by atmospheric drag (and also had on board thrusters to maintain its orbit).

>The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
>declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
>hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides). It
>also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
>factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far unexplained
>air mishaps.

I can see it being a factor that affects the deceleration of the shuttle 
(and therefore the peak temperature).  Certainly more investigation needed 
on how different upper atmospheric "profiles" affect re-entry.

>Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
>authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
>reaction as you have expressed elsewhere ­ that any notion that the moon has
>any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
>nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
>organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
>investigation into it, but not before.


Ken, while I haven't agrees with all of your theories, I do believe there 
is something in this that warrants investigation.  My gut feeling (OK, 
unscientific :) ) says that a high lunar tide alone is probably not enough 
to cause a disaster like Columbia, but I can certainly see how it could 
exacerbate the effects of a fault with the shuttle itself (by causing 
higher than expected heating against a damaged heat shield, for instance).

The worst case scenario I can see is where a spacecraft commences re-entry 
at a point of relatively "low tide".  If it is travelling  at  a lower tide 
area to a higher tide area (as it moved around the Earth), the air density 
will increase faster than expected with time, so re-entry temperatures will 
be a bit higher (because the spacecraft hits denser air at a faster 
velocity).  I hope NASA takes this possibility into account when they do 
their calculations. :-)

Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much this 
would be a factor.


73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 23:27:24 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


No worries, Brian, the square-off won't happen because the BoM has often
stated it cannot confidently predict weather beyond 14 days, otherwise they
would be able to warn of severe storms, floods etc well in advance and save
the country zillions of dollars. So either they can or they can't. But they
can't have it both ways.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 9:55 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather


> before you do, get Ken to lay down his definations of his words he uses to
> forecast the weather.
> i.e, showers, rain, cloud, etc.
> Ken needs to write down what he counts as still being corrrect for the
> weather for that day.
> Cheers
> Brian
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
> > >The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
> what
> > some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself
for
> a
> > ride..It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can
> beat
> > clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them.."
> >
> > Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some
> > have found that lunar forecasts work for them, so you cannot speak for
> > everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to
continually
> > make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not
> > rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods. Perhaps you need to
> learn
> > that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold
> all
> > the answers.
> > I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but
solid
> > test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia,
> well
> > beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your
> averages
> > etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for
> the
> > potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be
too
> > difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are
> you
> > game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout
off..?
> > cheers
> > Ken Ring
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 4:36 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
> >
> >
> > > Hi Sue,
> > >
> > > To your query:
> > >
> > > >may I ask if you've been
> > > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> > >
> > > I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> > > involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half
of
> > the
> > > Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and
evaluated
> > > under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US &
> England.
> > > All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
> > aviation
> > > customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on
> average,
> > > beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure
amount
> > > each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
> > >
> > > >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're
> incorporating
> > > lunar
> > > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
> > >
> > > The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
> what
> > > some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself
> for
> > a
> > > ride.
> > >
> > > I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
> > inland.
> > > Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar
> 22,
> > > rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> > > parameters are found here
> > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> > > There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are
simply
> > the
> > > clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
> > >
> > > >You sound very
> > > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> > > Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> > > For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
> > >
> > > 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques -
> persistence,
> > > climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> > > Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7
days)
> > > because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the
tropics.
> > >
> > > 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say
> 1deg).
> > > However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the
size
> > of
> > > the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
> > forecast
> > > do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be
7-10
> > > days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to
reach
> > > limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
> > particular
> > > location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the
> climatology
> > > technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1
is
> > same
> > > as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error
> value
> > is
> > > simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the
> interested
> > > location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> > > statistical program can work out what this value would be.
> > >
> > > 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> > > 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
> > will
> > > at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> > > higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can
be
> > > found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique
> apart
> > >  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
> > odds.
> > >
> > > 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve
> the
> > > expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly
> by
> > > increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few
percentage.
> In
> > > summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> > > anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
> > >
> > > 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can
beat
> > > clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like
> the
> > > first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
> > done
> > > so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for
'heating/cooling
> > deg
> > > days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
> > climatology.
> > > Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close
to
> > > clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the
comp
> > > only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for
l.r
> > > forecasts.
> > >
> > > 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who
> forecast
> > > for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
> > combined
> > > with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot
better.
> > >
> > > Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
> > doesn't
> > > mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
> > error.
> > > Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
> > >
> > > Best wishes,
> > > tuan
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the
letters
> so
> > > >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're
> ustilsing?
> > No
> > > >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
> > lunar
> > > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound
very
> > > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> > > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> > > >Suze =^. .^=
> > >
> > >
> > > >snip
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
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X-Originating-IP: [144.139.223.11]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 22:47:45 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Feb 2003 11:47:45.0884 (UTC) FILETIME=[E58169C0:01C2CF67]
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<x-flowed>
Keith,
Severe T'Storms observed visually over the Brindabella Ranges (Mt Bimberi to 
Mt Morgan and later around Mt Coree to the north but only 1.7 mm at Gilmore 
.I doubt any Gauges are working up there due to bushfire damage.I would say 
rainfall was intense enough to cause flash flooding type runoff but I can't 
say if it would have gone into Corin or Bendora Dams.






> at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 19:56:38 +1100
>
>Not much by the look of this:
>
>http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/nsw/southcoast.shtml
>
>this is up to 7pm.
>
>There was 52mm at Bathurst this afternoon.
>
>
>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>    at : Richard Modistach
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>   Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 7:43 PM
>   Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday 
>afternoon.
>
>
>         uh oh, just been looking at the radar for canberra, looks like 
>theyre getting plastered.
>         anyone got any idea of rainfall rates\totals so far,
>
>         isn't too much rain going to stuff the water supply!!!!!????
>
>         richard
>
>         -------Original Message-------
>
>          at : aussie-weather at world.std.com
>         Date: Saturday, 8 February 2003 4:53:50 PM
>         To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>         Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday 
>afternoon.
>
>         I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second 
>day in a
>         row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the 
>storms
>         really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
>         Some shots are here
>         www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
>
>         Simon
>         ----- Original Message -----
>          at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
>         To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>         Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
>         Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday 
>afternoon.
>
>
>         >
>         > hi all,
>         > We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a 
>severe t'storm
>         > moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern 
>Canberra) It
>         started
>         > about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  
>the south to
>         > 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg 
>to 19.3
>         in
>         > minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella 
>Plains
>         > recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but B 
>o m
>         thinks
>         > the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of 
>streets and
>         > sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage 
>lines on
>         the
>         > hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as 
>well as
>         > causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 
>hours of data
>         > when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
>         > thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of 
>the storm
>         > with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west 
>and we are
>         on
>         > a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
>         > Gavin O'Brien
>         > Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
>         >
>         >
>         >
>         > 
>_________________________________________________________________
>         > Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
>         > http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
>         >
>         > 
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>         > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body 
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>         > message.
>         > 
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>         >
>         >
>         >
>
>
>         
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.139.223.11]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 22:50:09 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Richard,
see my earlier message on the list.We missed it all! The action was on the 
Brindabella Ranges.
Gavin Southside Weather Watch Canberra






> at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 19:13:14 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
>
>uh oh, just been looking at the radar for canberra, looks like theyre
>getting plastered.
>anyone got any idea of rainfall rates\totals so far,
>
>isn't too much rain going to stuff the water supply!!!!!????
>
>richard
>
>-------Original Message-------
>
> at : aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Saturday, 8 February 2003 4:53:50 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>
>I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in a
>row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
>really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
>Some shots are here
>www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
>
>Simon
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>
>
> >
> > hi all,
> > We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe 
>t'storm
> > moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It
>started
> > about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south 
>to
> > 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3
>in
> > minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains
> > recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but B o m
>thinks
> > the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and
> > sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on
>the
> > hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as
> > causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of 
>data
> > when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
> > thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the 
>storm
> > with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we 
>are
>on
> > a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
> > Gavin O'Brien
> > Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
> >
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
> > Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> > http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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>.


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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.139.223.11]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 22:52:28 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Tony, You got nothing? What Suburb are you?
Gavin SSWW Gilmore






> at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday  afternoon.
>Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 18:05:20 +1100
>
>At 05:16 PM 8/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>
>>I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in 
>>a
>>row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
>>really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
>>Some shots are here
>>  www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
>
>At least you got to see that much....  I'm gonna have to watch several 
>re-runs of Twister to treat my SDS. :-/
>
>73 de Tony, VK3JED
>http://vkradio.com
>
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</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 13:16:09 +0100 (CET)
 at : Robert Goler <robert at meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Offtopic: Munich weather
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Hi all

Given the amount of non-aussie weather related stuff appearing on the list
recently, I don't feel as guilty posting this here.  :-)

A bit over 2 weeks ago I moved to Munich, Germany to work at Munich
University, and needless to say, coming  at  Melbourne, the weather has
been different.  During the past week, it has snowed on all but 1 day,
with at least 20-25cm in total falling (currently snowing as I write at
1pm).  Having seen snow only twice in Australia (total depth of 2-3cm), it
has been a fantastic experience for me.  The temperatures have been
consistently around or below 0°C, a bit of a shock coming  at  30°C in
Melbourne.  Last Saturday night was the coldest I experienced, with my
Kestrel 4000 (thanks to Australian Sky & Weather!
http://www.australianskynweather.com/) recording a -15°C on my walk home
 at  the train station.  The wind chill was -20°C, which was entirely due
to my walking as there was no wind around.  On the warmest day, the
temperature would've reached +7°C.

The locals class a windy day here as one where the wind gusts to 10
knots!!!!  Since I have been here, there has only been 2 such days where
the wind would ruffle my hair....that is if I had any!!!  :-)
The clouds here have been predominantly altostratus or stratus or
cirrostratus.  That is, there has been absolutely no structure in them to
determine wind direction/shear, and nothing to take pictures of.  There
have only been about 3-4 instances where the clouds were sort of
photogenic.  I want that Melbourne strato-cu!!!!  On the two days which
were free of low/mid level clouds to reveal cirrus, sundogs were easily
visible on either side of the sun.

I have been amazed that despite the cold, snow and rain, heaps of people
still cycle to work or the train station, or to the shops.  At the train
station near my house (which itself is on the western outskirts of Munich,
about 15km  at  the centre of town), 100-200 bikes are parked each day.
As of yesterday, I too have joined the clan....nothing like cycling with
the snow rushing in your face!!

I should be hitting the ski slopes within the next few weeks since I am
fully equipped now with health insurance.....  Regarding other things, I
came here with very little German speaking ability, and I have managed to
get around with few problems.  The people are very polite and
understanding to foreigners, especially the women when you say "Du bist
shön", which means "You are beautiful"!!!  A compliment does go a long
way, indeed!!  The German beer is absolutely astounding.....way, way
better than aussie beer.  If you weren't an alcoholic before coming to
Germany, you'll certainly leave as one!!!!  ;-P

I hope to put up some pics as soon as I can get my video camera connected
to my computer.


Cheers

Rob



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 01:58:48 +1300
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> Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much this
> would be a factor.
I don't know either, Tony. This would all be relatively novel to mainstream
science because the moon has been factored out of any weather/atmospheric
consideration for so long now. People who try to analyse or appraise my work
do so through the eyes of their own training, and so are bound to find fault
as it most certainly won't stack up under that narrow analysis. With lunar
theory the rules are different, the methods too, the results are fuzzier and
there is no possible control group so the classic scientific method is
inapplicable.
The maths of the moon's tidal effect has always been portrayed as being puny
and insignificant, quite ignoring that the moon can pull huge oceans around
and even the land itself, which shows that the maths itself has been flawed,
and this is because Newton's original work was not fully understood. He was
using astrological physics which is quite a different beast to gravitational
physics as we now know it.
What is required is a fresh look, a preparedness to put aside all of what
we've been taught about gravitation and what causes weather, a re
examination of the moon's intricate movements and its impact on the
atmosphere and a search for correlations, not null hypotheses. It doesn't
take much to see that there is a whole new area here that is thus far
uninvestigated.
I am also maintaining that there would be vacuum "holes" in an
incoming/outgoing airtide, akin to the vaccuum pockets behind rocks in an
outgoing stream, which could conceivably cause significant downdrafts,
especially near mountainous terrain; also electrical discharge disturbances
that would culminate in extreme weather as the earth's magnetic field gets
intersected by that of the rising/setting moon in the manner of a dynamo,
and/or the moon shielding then releasing again the rush of the solar wind.
As you say, we are very willing to explore the effects of, say, Jupiter's
moons on that planet's weather patterns, but we almost totally ignore and
belittle our own glorious nearest celestial neighbour. Our science is too
selective and so I think should be called a morality; not yet a true
science.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 11:11 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> At 10:43 PM 8/02/2003 +1300, you wrote:
>
> >Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an airbulge,
> >akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in" when
> >the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon. When
> >the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the sea
> >change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination, lunar
> >equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
> >especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
> >atmospheric conditions can be expected.
>
> This makes sense to me.  Afterall, ocean tides and even land tides are
well
> known phenomena.  In other planetary systems, land tides are very
> noticeable (e.g. Io orbiting Jupiter) and can cause extreme heating
> effects.  As the atmosphere is a lower density fluid than water, it is
only
> common sense to expect it has tides.  And as you maintain, such tides
would
> not show up significantly on a ground based barometer, due to the balance
> of forces involved (I would expect a _minor_ variation in barometric
> pressure though, because the forces are probably not perfectly in balance
> on the ground).
>
> >You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not
developed
> >instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the
barometer
> >for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the atmosphere(cf
> >height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any place,
> >which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric
height,
> >which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar
perigee.
>
> The upper atmosphere is also subject to a number of variables.  Lunar
tides
> are only one.  Solar activity is another (it's a known fact that Skylab
was
> brought down to Earth earlier than expected due to a period of significant
> solar activity before its re-entry.  Lunar tide measurements would have to
> take these into account...  One crude way of detecting lunar tides might
be
> to measure the drag on very low Earth orbiting satellites (could this be
> done using GPS?).   ISS might be another possibility, since it's affected
> by atmospheric drag (and also had on board thrusters to maintain its
orbit).
>
> >The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
> >declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
> >hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides). It
> >also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
> >factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far
unexplained
> >air mishaps.
>
> I can see it being a factor that affects the deceleration of the shuttle
> (and therefore the peak temperature).  Certainly more investigation needed
> on how different upper atmospheric "profiles" affect re-entry.
>
> >Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
> >authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
> >reaction as you have expressed elsewhere ­ that any notion that the moon
has
> >any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
> >nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
> >organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
> >investigation into it, but not before.
>
>
> Ken, while I haven't agrees with all of your theories, I do believe there
> is something in this that warrants investigation.  My gut feeling (OK,
> unscientific :) ) says that a high lunar tide alone is probably not enough
> to cause a disaster like Columbia, but I can certainly see how it could
> exacerbate the effects of a fault with the shuttle itself (by causing
> higher than expected heating against a damaged heat shield, for instance).
>
> The worst case scenario I can see is where a spacecraft commences re-entry
> at a point of relatively "low tide".  If it is travelling  at  a lower
tide
> area to a higher tide area (as it moved around the Earth), the air density
> will increase faster than expected with time, so re-entry temperatures
will
> be a bit higher (because the spacecraft hits denser air at a faster
> velocity).  I hope NASA takes this possibility into account when they do
> their calculations. :-)
>
> Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much this
> would be a factor.
>
>
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 23:20:48 +1000
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Thanks David :)

Love
Sha

----- Original Message -----
 at : "David Findlay" <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 12:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle

Firstly the radar is configured to see drops of water. Thus anything solid
is
going to appear far more "bright" on weather radar. There's lots of stuff
like insulation, papers, patches, clothes, fabrics, body parts, that were
shredded by the hypersonic airflows, along with dust  at  pulverised parts
and stuff. Although the density isn't huge, maybe on item per 100 metres sq,
on weather radar that is going appear quite brightly.

I can't remember the image, but I think some migrations of birds also appear
brightly on radar.

David



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 01:04:41 +1100
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well, about an hour after i typed this i got some flashes  at  the cells
near yass, also a spot of rain  at  the anvil. went to my mates house in
gungahlin saw a great inflow band streaching and estimated 10kms  at  the
core of the Yass storms. was of the NE edge and direction NE  at  the storm
(or SW into the storm if you like). It was heading N'ly at the time, so no
affect on my mates house except a few spots of rain  at  the anvil, and
perhaps 2 anvil crawlers. very dissapointing for me today. All in all, i
heard thunder 5 times, saw lightning 2 times, and had ~1mm of "rain"

Simon

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.


> I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in
a
> row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
> really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
> Some shots are here
>  www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
>
> Simon
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>
>
> >
> > hi all,
> > We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe
t'storm
> > moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It
> started
> > about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south
to
> > 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3
> in
> > minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains
> > recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but  B o m
> thinks
> > the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and
> > sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on
> the
> > hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as
> > causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of
data
> > when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
> > thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the
storm
> > with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we
are
> on
> > a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
> > Gavin O'Brien
> > Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
> >
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
> > Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> > http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SPRITE CHASING  at  THE BACK PORCH
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 00:09:46 +1000
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Tornado chasing, quite the vogue these days, wears out one's car, burns up
gasoline, and taxes the nerves of even the hardiest of twister trackers. But
there are other mysterious, thunderstorm-related phenomena that can be
viewed above distant thunderheads in the peace and tranquillity of a summer
night while sitting in a rocking chair on your back porch. Less than ten
years ago, nobody had heard of sprites, blue jets and elves, in fact, the
terms hadn't even entered the meteorological vocabulary. Recent research,
however, has confirmed over a century of frequent but generally ignored
observations of an entire menagerie of strange, luminous, lightning-related
flashes dancing high above thunderstorm tops. And you can, if you know how,
observe some of these with the naked eye. Here's the story of how sprites
were discovered and how you might be able to spot some on your own.
(Continue on at this link
...http://www.fma-research.com/Papers&presentations/spr-view-1.html )

(It is written by an American.)

I came across this other site on Sprites as well :

Sprites and Elves : http://ibis.nmt.edu/sprites/index.html

Love
Sha



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 01:12:20 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>yeah got that thanks gavin,</DIV>
<DIV>the radar loop had it looking like canberra was getting cleaved</DIV>
<DIV>hopefully enough to settle the dust and start some regrowth and ground cover without any runoff.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Sunday, 9 February 2003 1:05:44 AM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Richard,<BR>see my earlier message on the list.We missed it all! The action was on the <BR>Brindabella Ranges.<BR>Gavin Southside Weather Watch Canberra<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>&gt; at : "Richard Modistach" &lt;<A href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">hambone at dodo.com.au</A>&gt;<BR>&gt;Reply-To: <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt;To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.<BR>&gt;Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 19:13:14 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;uh oh, just been looking at the radar for canberra, looks like theyre<BR>&gt;getting plastered.<BR>&gt;anyone got any idea of rainfall rates\totals so far,<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;isn't too much rain going to stuff the water supply!!!!!????<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;richard<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;-------Original Message-------<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; at : <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt;Date: Saturday, 8 February 2003 4:53:50 PM<BR>&gt;To: <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day in a<BR>&gt;row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms<BR>&gt;really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...<BR>&gt;Some shots are here<BR>&gt;<A href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/">www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;Simon<BR>&gt;----- Original Message -----<BR>&gt; at : "Gavin O'Brien" &lt;<A href="mailto:mrcenterprises at hotmail.com">mrcenterprises at hotmail.com</A>&gt;<BR>&gt;To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>&gt;Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM<BR>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.<BR>&gt;<BR>&Re aus-wx Severe Thunderstorm.ems
gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; hi all,<BR>&gt; &gt; We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe <BR>&gt;t'storm<BR>&gt; &gt; moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It<BR>&gt;started<BR>&gt; &gt; about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the south <BR>&gt;to<BR>&gt; &gt; 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 19.3<BR>&gt;in<BR>&gt; &gt; minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains<BR>&gt; &gt; recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but B o m<BR>&gt;thinks<BR>&gt; &gt; the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets and<BR>&gt; &gt; sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines on<BR>&gt;the<BR>&gt; &gt; hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well as<BR>&gt; &gt; causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of <BR>&gt;data<BR>&gt; &gt; when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old<BR>&gt; &gt; thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the <BR>&gt;storm<BR>&gt; &gt; with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we <BR>&gt;are<BR>&gt;on<BR>&gt; &gt; a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.<BR>&gt; &gt; Gavin O'Brien<BR>&gt; &gt; Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; _________________________________________________________________<BR>&gt; &gt; Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to<BR>&gt; &gt; <A href="http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral">http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral</A><BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt; &gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <BR><A href="mailto:>to:majordomo at world.std.com">&gt;to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; &gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>&gt; &gt; message.<BR>&gt; &gt; <A href="maRe aus-wx Severe Thunderstorm.ems
ilto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt;To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt;with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>&gt;message.<BR><A href="mailto:>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">&gt;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;.<BR><BR><BR>_________________________________________________________________<BR>Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to <BR><A href="http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral">http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral</A><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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<DIV>Just had a look at the composite radar loop for nsw running on 50 frames at 20fps.</DIV>
<DIV>That&nbsp;NW moving storm t-boning moree and then moving to the west&nbsp;looked totally awsome as it sideswiped a SE moving storm that cut through Goondiwindi.</DIV>
<DIV>That's the first time i've seen such a sideswipe by two storms running in such opposite directions, is this a normal occurance or did i see something rare?.</DIV>
<DIV>would there have been any meso or tornadic action on the shear line?</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
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 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BoM 16 level radar 
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 02:38:15 +1030
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Will ASWA members get access to BoM 16 
level&nbsp;radar any time in the near future?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/16level/">http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/16level/</A></FONT></DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Regs, 
Paul.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
*<BR>(Stargazer)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
*&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; .*<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A><BR>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 09:20:38 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday
  afternoon.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 10:52 PM 8/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:

>Tony, You got nothing? What Suburb are you?

Oh, I'm in Melbourne - SDS city this year. :-/

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 11:00:17 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Hi Tony and Ken

I've also been mulling over Ken's theory a bit and have done a few rough
calculations. 

As mentioned, Feb 1st 'CST' was a New Moon when Columbia crossed the US.

The shuttle was about 63km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high and the
earth is about 13,000km wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km
in just a few minutes.

In San Francisco the moon would not rise for further 1:57 hrs after the
shuttle had passed just to the north at 7:52am CST. However in just 8
minutes the moon would be on the central Texas horizon.

The shuttle would have followed a trajectory over Texas of Latitude 34°N to
32°N, before it broke up at 8:00am CST. To view a moonrise at 8:00am CST on
Latitude 33°N, you would have to be on Longitude 99°W, or 2° west of Dallas
in Central North Texas.

In other words, the time and location for moonrise, matched EXACTLY the time
and location that the shuttle broke apart.

Just a little more food for thought.

Neville


>  at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 21:11:34 +1100
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> At 10:43 PM 8/02/2003 +1300, you wrote:
> 
>> Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an airbulge,
>> akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in" when
>> the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon. When
>> the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the sea
>> change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination, lunar
>> equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
>> especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
>> atmospheric conditions can be expected.
> 
> This makes sense to me.  Afterall, ocean tides and even land tides are well
> known phenomena.  In other planetary systems, land tides are very
> noticeable (e.g. Io orbiting Jupiter) and can cause extreme heating
> effects.  As the atmosphere is a lower density fluid than water, it is only
> common sense to expect it has tides.  And as you maintain, such tides would
> not show up significantly on a ground based barometer, due to the balance
> of forces involved (I would expect a _minor_ variation in barometric
> pressure though, because the forces are probably not perfectly in balance
> on the ground).
> 
>> You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not developed
>> instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the barometer
>> for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the atmosphere(cf
>> height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any place,
>> which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric height,
>> which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar perigee.
> 
> The upper atmosphere is also subject to a number of variables.  Lunar tides
> are only one.  Solar activity is another (it's a known fact that Skylab was
> brought down to Earth earlier than expected due to a period of significant
> solar activity before its re-entry.  Lunar tide measurements would have to
> take these into account...  One crude way of detecting lunar tides might be
> to measure the drag on very low Earth orbiting satellites (could this be
> done using GPS?).   ISS might be another possibility, since it's affected
> by atmospheric drag (and also had on board thrusters to maintain its orbit).
> 
>> The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
>> declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
>> hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides). It
>> also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
>> factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far unexplained
>> air mishaps.
> 
> I can see it being a factor that affects the deceleration of the shuttle
> (and therefore the peak temperature).  Certainly more investigation needed
> on how different upper atmospheric "profiles" affect re-entry.
> 
>> Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
>> authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
>> reaction as you have expressed elsewhere ­ that any notion that the moon has
>> any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
>> nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
>> organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
>> investigation into it, but not before.
> 
> 
> Ken, while I haven't agrees with all of your theories, I do believe there
> is something in this that warrants investigation.  My gut feeling (OK,
> unscientific :) ) says that a high lunar tide alone is probably not enough
> to cause a disaster like Columbia, but I can certainly see how it could
> exacerbate the effects of a fault with the shuttle itself (by causing
> higher than expected heating against a damaged heat shield, for instance).
> 
> The worst case scenario I can see is where a spacecraft commences re-entry
> at a point of relatively "low tide".  If it is travelling  at  a lower tide
> area to a higher tide area (as it moved around the Earth), the air density
> will increase faster than expected with time, so re-entry temperatures will
> be a bit higher (because the spacecraft hits denser air at a faster
> velocity).  I hope NASA takes this possibility into account when they do
> their calculations. :-)
> 
> Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much this
> would be a factor.
> 
> 
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 11:10:46 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</TITLE>
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<BODY>
Hi Sha<BR>
<BR>
Thanks for URL. Great site! Wasn't getting at you about the times. I've just found it seems to be a fairly common mistake. You've certainly provided a lot of interesting food for thought. Keep it up!<BR>
:)<BR>
Cheers<BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Sha&quot; &lt;shambhala at hotkey.net.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Sat, 8 Feb 2003 12:35:48 +1000<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>No Neville ........ they are all using UTC which is GMT - standard world time. &nbsp;The tragedy occurred at 14:00 UTC or 8 am CST and 9 am EST. &nbsp;I haven't yet finished my radar page, but there is a screen shot on this page of mine, http://www.geocities.com/serpentine_moon/questions , taken at 15:43 UTC. &nbsp;This shows the most debris  at  any of the shots, and yet it is an hour and a half after the explosion ?<BR>
</I></B></FONT> <BR>
<FONT SIZE="4"><B><I>Love<BR>
Sha<BR>
</I></B></FONT> <BR>
----- Original Message ----- <BR>
<B> at :</B> Neville Gibb &lt;mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz&gt; &nbsp;<BR>
<B>To:</B> aussie-weather at world.std.com <BR>
<B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 08, 2003 12:51 PM<BR>
<B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle<BR>
<BR>
Hi Sha <BR>
<BR>
Could it be that the radar screens show EST rather than CST. There's an hour difference there. Just a thought. I haven't seen them.<BR>
<BR>
Neville<BR>
 <BR>
<BR>
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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 10:59:25 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Mal Ninnes <meso at iinet.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM 16 level radar 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Paul,

Nope, this doesn't apply to us. The 16-level upgrade of the BoM radar
system (which occurred way back before June 2002) will not apply to GIF
images available on the web. Only users of PC-Rapic and polar-format
archive decoders will be able to see the new 16-scale reflectivity images.
For us, the new 16-level data gets mapped back into the existing 6-level
scale.

Regards,
Malcolm


At 02:38 AM 2/9/03 +1030, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>Will ASWA members get access to BoM 16 level radar any time in the near
future?
>http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/16level/ 

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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 13:23:07 +1100
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Ken,

>I think there is much claim now that other, unknown factors could have been
>responsible for the Shuttle disaster. It will probably go into the bin of
>all the other unexplained air accidents, whereby systems were found later
to
>have been in working order yet a tragedy still mysteriously occurred. You
>only have to look up air accidents on any search engine and get truckloads
>of reports. If you match these to where the moon was at location, I believe
>a causality can be seen.
>
>Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an airbulge,
>akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in" when
>the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon. When
>the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the sea
>change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination, lunar
>equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
>especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
>atmospheric conditions can be expected.

Personally, I think it is still too early to really know what happened.
There is nothing wrong with speculating and have read many ideas floated
about. Given the lack of evidence I have apart  at  various news articles, I
think I will wait for NASA's findings on what they believe is the most
probable cause and see if I agree with them.

I hope they get a good idea otherwise the other 3 shuttles will be grounded
indefinitely.

>You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not developed
>instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the
barometer
>for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the atmosphere(cf
>height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any place,
>which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric height,
>which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar perigee.

I still have trouble accepting this theory in this current form and with
your current evidence. Have not dismissed it totally but have trouble with
some points. Without a doubt, there is an air tide, given that air can be
seen as a liquid. However, air is much less dense than water (I think about
3 orders of magnitude), hence it's influence by the moon is extremely small,
compared to the solar & other factors. Your claim of 'up to 20%' (25% on NZ
forum) seems far too large to not be detected by satellites  at  space.
Taking the moon & density of air into account, my napkin calculations of the
air tide has it to vary by only .1% (at best but more likely 0.01%) between
peaks and trough (ie ~100m assuming ~100km atmos). Given we already know
that the solar has a big impact on the pressure tide, my napkin calc has the
air tide to vary in the km, dwarfing any influence of the moon.

In the SH, we can ignore the Coriolis when thinking about which way water
spins down the sink, as it is several order of magnitude smaller than the
other factors.

 at  this, my reasoning is that the solar influence is too great compared to
the moon's influence. And for implistic purposes, the moon's influence is
not significant and can be ignored.

>Sure, more work has to be done.
Totally agree.

>I have often in the past appealed to
>authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
>reaction as you have expressed elsewhere – that any notion that the moon
has
>any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
>nutter.

Mainly because your theories can't be tested and/or don't pass the 'proof'
requirement that other theories must go through, and/or evidence you have is
too weak to back up your conclusions.

>I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
>organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
>investigation into it, but not before.

On the NZ forum, I noted you make some extraordinary claims, linking the
full moon to menstral cycles, crime, mental patients, and others. I did a
very quick check on Google and found that many research have been carried
out to test these claims.

http://faculty.washington.edu/chudler/moon.html

Best to let everyone else come to their own conclusions about these studies.

Regards,
tuan

>Cheers
>
>Ken
>
>www.predictweather.com


>snip


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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 13:25:53 +1100
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Ken,

>>The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
>some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for a
>ride..It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
>clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them.."
>
>Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some
>have found that lunar forecasts work for them,

Very true Ken (to "some have found that lunar forecasts work for them"). But
I don't believe personal testimony or opinion would pass as scientific fact.
My daily horoscope are generally damn accurate but I could never claim them
to be anything but for entertainment value. I still stand by my claim that
clim is best at lead time >14days (when a non-descriptive forecast has to be
made).

>... so you cannot speak for
>everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to continually
>make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not
>rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods.

I understand my limitations very well, hence could not give Sue a personal
forecast but one by climatology instead (and gave very detail reason why
this was so). If I gave her a personal forecast, I would have been taking
her for a ride.

I do not take credit for work done by others that showed no methods can beat
clim at lead time >14days. I simply can find no flaw in their work and agree
with their logic & conclusions, until new irrefuteable evidence is
uncovered. Perhaps you may be interested in publishing your moon theory that
improves or contradict their work. Until then, it is NOT my opinion, but
scientific fact.

>Perhaps you need to learn
>that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold all
>the answers.

Of course BoM don't hold all answers. That would be naive of me. Many people
around the world, including me, are constantly working on new forecast
methods that may push the forecast limit beyond 14 days. Until I, or any one
else publish contradictory, verifiable results, the status quo remains.

>I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but solid
>test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia,
well
>beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your
averages
>etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for the
>potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be too
>difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are you
>game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout off..?

Done! Will do separate email to reduce clutter.
tuan

>cheers
>Ken Ring
>www.predictweather.com

>snip

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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 13:32:34 +1100
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Paul,

I think you misunderstood/misread my email to Sue. Requests for forecasts
months in advance is pretty common for the BoM and I was trying to help her
understand the current limitations.

>Ever heard the term "pride cometh before BIG fall"......? I look forward to
>what the conditions will be.
I though I had made it clear that research published by others have shown
that NO forecast methods have been found to be superior to the climatology
technique to date for lead time >14 days, giving the amount of details &
numbers she was after. Yes this also include my 16-parameters Butterfly
Oscillation Index (BOI). If you believe their work to be mathematically
flawed, I encourage you to take it up with them.

Pride has nothing to do with what I told Sue. I thought it was pretty clear
that the numbers she got was based climatology and even showed her where it
came  at . Do you actually believe people forecast to 1 decimal place that
far out??? I never mention that it was MY personal forecast. Plagarism would
be the first thing I would be accused of if I try to claim the clim values
as my very own.

>I will sya one thing tho - did not Ken predict
>back a few months ago about the current rain scenario in Qld / East Coast
>etc?
Huh??? I never predicted anything for Qld/East coast and have no idea about
what Ken did. Irrevalant to this debate.

>As for the moon - lets not have jibes at what other people believe.
>YOU dont know it all..... even though you may think you do.
No one can claim they know it all for any subject, and I never made any such
claim. My basic understanding of the weather and its influence comes  at 
classic Newtonian. Where that breaks down, quantum mechanics (Einstein)
takes over. Work by Newton, and others before & after him have shown that
effects of the moon on our weather is many order of magnitude smaller than
other factors and thus can be ignored, just like the Coriolis when dealing
with small scale.

If you or others have scientific research that shows Newton's Laws are
incorrect, I recommend they be verified & published. Then I would take back
my words. I will even guarantee the responsible person the Nobel Prize in
Physics, a similar prize to what I guarantee anyone who claims to have found
a cure for cancer & AIDS.

> If the moon has such an
>effect on the massive bodies of water that cover this planet, then it must
>have an effect on the weather.
Illogical assumption without evidence.

My basic understanding of gravity. Gravity is the interaction between 2
masses, the heavier the mass, the bigger the tug between the two. Water and
land is dense enough to be affected by the moon's gravity, but air is too
thin (several order of magnitude lower than water) to feel any effect. If I
erred somewhere, do correct me.

>Even a person with an inkling of science could agree with that......
No I don't.

tuan
>Paul

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 1:06 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


> Hi Sue,
>
> To your query:
>
> >may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>
> I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
the
> Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
> All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
aviation
> customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
> beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
>
> >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
>
> The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride.
>
> I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
inland.
> Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
> rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> parameters are found here
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
the
> clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
>
> >You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
>
> 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
> climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
>
> 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
> However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
of
> the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
forecast
> do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
particular
> location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
> technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
same
> as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value
is
> simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
> location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> statistical program can work out what this value would be.
>
> 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
will
> at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
>  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
odds.
>
> 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
> expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
> increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
> summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
>
> 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
> first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
done
> so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
deg
> days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
climatology.
> Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> forecasts.
>
> 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
> for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
combined
> with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
>
> Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
doesn't
> mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
error.
> Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
>
> Best wishes,
> tuan
>
>
>
>
> >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
> >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing?
No
> >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >Suze =^. .^=
>
>
> >snip
>

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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Moon vs Clim Challenge
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 14:12:33 +1100
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Ken,

I am willing to take up your challenge. Here are some the basic terms.

1.	It is a test to see if forecasting by the moon is significantly better
than climatology (and vice versa) at lead-time >14 days (and not BoM or me
vs Moon).
2.	To reduce possibility of chance, bias, bad luck factor, etc, the location
for the forecasts will be:

	NZ  – Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch
	Aus – Melbourne, Canberra & Sydney
	O/S – Any international capital you care to choose. Can be scrapped if >6
cities is too much.

3.	You can nominate any arbitrators and/or verification technique you wish.
4.	Forecast will be in this very basic in this form:

	City		Date		Min		Max		Rain lvl
Eg	NZAA		01/03/2003	15		22		0 or 1 or 2
or	Melbourne	Mar 1 2003	18		25		Yes

* For rain level, 0 is no rain, 1 is <10mm and 2 is =>10 mm. If this is too
complex, we can go with yes or no option which is fine with me.

Starting date will be March 1, 2003 and will go for at least one full month
(31 days) and hopefully 2 months (if you are up to it Ken).

5.	Total forecasts will be 6 (cities) x 2 (min & max) x 2 or 3 (rain lvl) x
31 (days).
6.	Total 744 forecasts with ‘Yes/No’ rain, 1116 forecasts with ‘0, 1 or 2’
rain lvl.
7.	The actual observation will be  at  the official value as determined by
the BoM and NZMetService.
8.	There may not be enough evidence to support either side, and we both will
have to accept this.
9.	Judge/s (chosen by you) decision is final.

Given the starting date is soon & you & I need time to prepare, the first
few days of the forecast period need not be strictly >= 14 days. (but still
must be at >9 days lead). Will be digging around for clim data especially NZ
stuff. However, should not matter if I take a while to find it, as it is
fixed already :)

Ken, I will be out of the office till Wednesday. Looking forward to your
reply. Hopefully you will be happy with these terms and we can start
shortly.

Regards,
tuan

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 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Cobar storm warning
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 14:51:56 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 09/02/2003 02:51:56 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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HI all.

More storms firing up now. Cobar area, North Dubbo, south of orange..
Another interesting afternoon.

                                                                            
                                                                            
                                                                            
                                                                            
  TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST                                      
  NSW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE                                            
                                                                            
  Issued at 2:31 PM Sunday 09 February 2003.                                
                                                                            
  The Bureau of Meteorology in SYDNEY has issued a Severe Thunderstorm      
  Advice                                                                    
  for people in the following weather forecast district:                    
                                                                            
  Upper Western east of a line  at  Wanaaring to Cobar and west of          
  Brewarrina.                                                               
                                                                            
                                                                            
                                                                            





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X-Originating-IP: [203.54.206.153]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 14:59:38 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Thanks Tony, that explains it.Been fairly quiet down there this summer.I can 
see some strong Cb tops  through the smoke haze to our Southwest on the 
Brindabellas again (1pm Sunday) but I am not holding my breath as I think 
they will remain slow moving  and on the Ranges again.Expect a severe 
T'storm Warning  at  B O M any time soon!
Gavin
SSWW Canberra






> at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday  afternoon.
>Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 09:20:38 +1100
>
>At 10:52 PM 8/02/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>
>>Tony, You got nothing? What Suburb are you?
>
>Oh, I'm in Melbourne - SDS city this year. :-/
>
>73 de Tony, VK3JED
>http://vkradio.com
>
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.206.153]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cobar storm warning
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 15:02:57 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2003 04:02:58.0016 (UTC) FILETIME=[21743600:01C2CFF0]
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<x-flowed>
David,
We have some activity on the Brindabellas (Ranges) now . while I don't think 
we will get them in Canberra there could be some severe Wx on the Ranges
Gavin SSWW Canberra






> at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Cobar storm warning
>Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 14:51:56 +1100
>
>HI all.
>
>More storms firing up now. Cobar area, North Dubbo, south of orange..
>Another interesting afternoon.
>
>
>
>
>
>   TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>   NSW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
>
>   Issued at 2:31 PM Sunday 09 February 2003.
>
>   The Bureau of Meteorology in SYDNEY has issued a Severe Thunderstorm
>   Advice
>   for people in the following weather forecast district:
>
>   Upper Western east of a line  at  Wanaaring to Cobar and west of
>   Brewarrina.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>#####################################################################################
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>information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and 
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM 16 level radar 
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 14:38:52 +1030
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Oh....  Bugger :(

Regs, Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "Mal Ninnes" <meso at iinet.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:29 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BoM 16 level radar


> Hi Paul,
>
> Nope, this doesn't apply to us. The 16-level upgrade of the BoM radar
> system (which occurred way back before June 2002) will not apply to GIF
> images available on the web. Only users of PC-Rapic and polar-format
> archive decoders will be able to see the new 16-scale reflectivity images.
> For us, the new 16-level data gets mapped back into the existing 6-level
> scale.
>
> Regards,
> Malcolm
>
>
> At 02:38 AM 2/9/03 +1030, you wrote:
> >Hi all,
> >Will ASWA members get access to BoM 16 level radar any time in the near
> future?
> >http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/16level/
>
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 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst storms 8 feb
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 15:09:17 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 09/02/2003 03:09:17 PM
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  Hi all.                                                                                      
                                                                                               
  Bathurst storm yesterday afternoon was massive to all proportions. Flash Flooding in CBD     
  area, lightning strikes knocked out alot of power around Bathurst, Blayney, Hill End,        
  Sofala. Lightning also struck major zone substation. Many people still off this morning. It  
  certainly was a site to have so much rain.                                                   
                                                                                               
                                                                                               
                                                                                               
  Dave                                                                                         
  Bathurst.                                                                                    
                                                                                               
                                                                                               





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X-Originating-IP: [203.54.206.153]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 15:11:38 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Simon,
You may not be able to see them but there are some large Cb tops in the 
Bimberi area of the Brindabellas and a line of large Cu along the main Range 
to our west. smoke haze has visibility below 35 km at present so clouds are 
hard to see.
Gavin
SSWW Canberra






> at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 01:04:41 +1100
>
>well, about an hour after i typed this i got some flashes  at  the cells
>near yass, also a spot of rain  at  the anvil. went to my mates house in
>gungahlin saw a great inflow band streaching and estimated 10kms  at  the
>core of the Yass storms. was of the NE edge and direction NE  at  the storm
>(or SW into the storm if you like). It was heading N'ly at the time, so no
>affect on my mates house except a few spots of rain  at  the anvil, and
>perhaps 2 anvil crawlers. very dissapointing for me today. All in all, i
>heard thunder 5 times, saw lightning 2 times, and had ~1mm of "rain"
>
>Simon
>
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:16 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
>
>
> > I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day 
>in
>a
> > row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the storms
> > really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
> > Some shots are here
> >  www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
> >
> > Simon
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
> >
> >
> > >
> > > hi all,
> > > We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe
>t'storm
> > > moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It
> > started
> > > about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the 
>south
>to
> > > 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to 
>19.3
> > in
> > > minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains
> > > recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but  B o m
> > thinks
> > > the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets 
>and
> > > sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage lines 
>on
> > the
> > > hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well 
>as
> > > causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of
>data
> > > when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
> > > thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the
>storm
> > > with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and we
>are
> > on
> > > a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
> > > Gavin O'Brien
> > > Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> > > http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
> > >
> > >  
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.206.153]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Offtopic: Munich weather
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 15:16:52 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Feb 2003 04:16:52.0358 (UTC) FILETIME=[12C2B260:01C2CFF2]
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<x-flowed>
Robert,
My brother is currently in Berlin,While I realise Wx can vary in that 
distance your comments are welcome!
Its 28 here in Canberra!
Gavin SSWW Canberra






> at : Robert Goler <robert at meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Offtopic: Munich weather
>Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 13:16:09 +0100 (CET)
>
>
>Hi all
>
>Given the amount of non-aussie weather related stuff appearing on the list
>recently, I don't feel as guilty posting this here.  :-)
>
>A bit over 2 weeks ago I moved to Munich, Germany to work at Munich
>University, and needless to say, coming  at  Melbourne, the weather has
>been different.  During the past week, it has snowed on all but 1 day,
>with at least 20-25cm in total falling (currently snowing as I write at
>1pm).  Having seen snow only twice in Australia (total depth of 2-3cm), it
>has been a fantastic experience for me.  The temperatures have been
>consistently around or below 0°C, a bit of a shock coming  at  30°C in
>Melbourne.  Last Saturday night was the coldest I experienced, with my
>Kestrel 4000 (thanks to Australian Sky & Weather!
>http://www.australianskynweather.com/) recording a -15°C on my walk home
> at  the train station.  The wind chill was -20°C, which was entirely due
>to my walking as there was no wind around.  On the warmest day, the
>temperature would've reached +7°C.
>
>The locals class a windy day here as one where the wind gusts to 10
>knots!!!!  Since I have been here, there has only been 2 such days where
>the wind would ruffle my hair....that is if I had any!!!  :-)
>The clouds here have been predominantly altostratus or stratus or
>cirrostratus.  That is, there has been absolutely no structure in them to
>determine wind direction/shear, and nothing to take pictures of.  There
>have only been about 3-4 instances where the clouds were sort of
>photogenic.  I want that Melbourne strato-cu!!!!  On the two days which
>were free of low/mid level clouds to reveal cirrus, sundogs were easily
>visible on either side of the sun.
>
>I have been amazed that despite the cold, snow and rain, heaps of people
>still cycle to work or the train station, or to the shops.  At the train
>station near my house (which itself is on the western outskirts of Munich,
>about 15km  at  the centre of town), 100-200 bikes are parked each day.
>As of yesterday, I too have joined the clan....nothing like cycling with
>the snow rushing in your face!!
>
>I should be hitting the ski slopes within the next few weeks since I am
>fully equipped now with health insurance.....  Regarding other things, I
>came here with very little German speaking ability, and I have managed to
>get around with few problems.  The people are very polite and
>understanding to foreigners, especially the women when you say "Du bist
>shön", which means "You are beautiful"!!!  A compliment does go a long
>way, indeed!!  The German beer is absolutely astounding.....way, way
>better than aussie beer.  If you weren't an alcoholic before coming to
>Germany, you'll certainly leave as one!!!!  ;-P
>
>I hope to put up some pics as soon as I can get my video camera connected
>to my computer.
>
>
>Cheers
>
>Rob
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 14:55:12 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1123
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>- we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of
> straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc
<snip>

Sorry, but I had to put this in...

> Scientists at NASA built a gun specifically to launch dead chickens
> at the windshields of airliners, military jets and the space shuttle,
> all travelling at maximum velocity. The idea is to simulate the frequent
> incidents of collisions with airborne fowl to test the strength of the
> windshields.
> British engineers heard about the gun and were eager to
> test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. Arrangements
> were made, and a gun was sent to the British engineers. When the gun
> was fired, the engineers stood shocked as the chicken hurled out of the
> barrel, crashed into the shatterproof shield, smashed it to
> smithereens, blasted through the control console, snapped the
> engineer's backrest in two and embedded itself in the back wall of the
> cabin, like an arrow shot  at  a bow.
> The horrified Brits sent NASA the disastrous results of the experiment,
> along with the designs of the windshield and begged the US scientists
> for suggestions.
>
> NASA responded with a one-line memo: "Defrost the chicken."

:)

Regs, Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 2:58 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> At 02:04 PM 2/7/2003 +1000, David wrote:
>
> > > say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
> >
> >Don't think of foam as a peice of foam in your couch, but this stuff is
very
> >hard. It was also propelled by a Mach 2 airflow. So it wouldn't just
bounce
> >of the tiles, it would be rammed into them. They'll do wind tunnel
testing no
> >doubt to see what does happen to tiles hit by foam.
>
> NASA is indeed saying that the foam, which is extremely lightweight, would
> most probably not caused much damage, and that there was no ice problem
> that day. But I wonder - we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of
> straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc after the passage of a
> cyclone or tornado, with equates to a wind of maybe 300-400 km/h. The
force
> of impact  at  the foam must have been much greater than that, given the
> accelaration and velocity of the shuttle at the time. Any thoughts anyone?
>
> Tom
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 at : "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: This list is  . . . .
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 15:48:05 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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<div class=Section1>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Hilarious sometimes . . . <span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Am I the only person who has been pissing themselves?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Wingdings><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial;mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;
mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'><span
style='mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings'>J</span></span></font><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Peace Love and <span class=SpellE>Mungbeans</span> baby . .
. . <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>James<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>James Holbeach</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>--------------------------------</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Trapdoor Ski Club </span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><st1:place><st1:City><font size=2 face=Arial><span
  style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Mt. Hotham</span></font></st1:City><font
 size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:
 yes'>, </span></font><st1:country-region><font size=2 face=Arial><span
  style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Australia</span></font></st1:country-region></st1:place><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>ph. 0417 553 757</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'><a href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</a></span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>--------------------------------</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

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Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 15:53:20 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
X-Mailer: IncrediMail 2001 (1800838)
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>not yet, but you send me&nbsp;some of that stuff you been smokin' and i'll join in.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Sunday, 9 February 2003 3:40:08 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: This list is . . . .</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV class=Section1>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Hilarious sometimes . . . <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><O:P></O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P>&nbsp;</O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Am I the only person who has been pissing themselves?<O:P></O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P>&nbsp;</O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Wingdings size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P>&nbsp;</O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Peace Love and <SPAN class=SpellE>Mungbeans</SPAN> baby . . . . <O:P></O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P>&nbsp;</O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">James<O:P></O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><O:P>&nbsp;</O:P></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">James Holbeach</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Trapdoor Ski Club </SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><ST1:PLACE><ST1:CITY><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Mt. Hotham</SPAN></FONT></ST1:CITY><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">, </SPAN></FONT><ST1:COUNTRY-REGION><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Australia</SPAN></FONT></ST1:COUNTRY-REGION></ST1:PLACE><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">ph. 0417 553 757</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes"><A href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</A></SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><O:P></O:P></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><O:P></O:P></P>
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Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 23:29:35 -0600
 at : Tom Johnstone <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
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<x-flowed>
he he he. That's great. But seriously, if such a gun really exists, would 
they not have been able to use it to test the possible effect of foam 
hitting a wing during launch?

Tom



At 02:55 PM 2/9/2003 +1030, you wrote:
> >- we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of
> > straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc
><snip>
>
>Sorry, but I had to put this in...
>
> > Scientists at NASA built a gun specifically to launch dead chickens
> > at the windshields of airliners, military jets and the space shuttle,
> > all travelling at maximum velocity. The idea is to simulate the frequent
> > incidents of collisions with airborne fowl to test the strength of the
> > windshields.
> > British engineers heard about the gun and were eager to
> > test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. Arrangements
> > were made, and a gun was sent to the British engineers. When the gun
> > was fired, the engineers stood shocked as the chicken hurled out of the
> > barrel, crashed into the shatterproof shield, smashed it to
> > smithereens, blasted through the control console, snapped the
> > engineer's backrest in two and embedded itself in the back wall of the
> > cabin, like an arrow shot  at  a bow.
> > The horrified Brits sent NASA the disastrous results of the experiment,
> > along with the designs of the windshield and begged the US scientists
> > for suggestions.
> >
> > NASA responded with a one-line memo: "Defrost the chicken."
>
>:)
>
>Regs, Paul.
>(Stargazer)
>http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 2:58 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>
>
> > At 02:04 PM 2/7/2003 +1000, David wrote:
> >
> > > > say they would not have been damaged by the foam)
> > >
> > >Don't think of foam as a peice of foam in your couch, but this stuff is
>very
> > >hard. It was also propelled by a Mach 2 airflow. So it wouldn't just
>bounce
> > >of the tiles, it would be rammed into them. They'll do wind tunnel
>testing no
> > >doubt to see what does happen to tiles hit by foam.
> >
> > NASA is indeed saying that the foam, which is extremely lightweight, would
> > most probably not caused much damage, and that there was no ice problem
> > that day. But I wonder - we've all heard amazing stories about pieces of
> > straw/hay being embedded in wooden barns/walls etc after the passage of a
> > cyclone or tornado, with equates to a wind of maybe 300-400 km/h. The
>force
> > of impact  at  the foam must have been much greater than that, given the
> > accelaration and velocity of the shuttle at the time. Any thoughts anyone?
> >
> > Tom
> >
> >
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> >
>
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: El Nino Data Search (was SOI Data search...)
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 15:32:36 +1000
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Hi Kevin,
Grateful for your advice - and taken on board : )

It's hard to define my goal now, I put research down in 98 when diverted on
a work project. I'd begun with an initial desire to forecast El Nino (like
so many others), and then became side-tracked learning more about the
physics of the planet first. One piece of fascinating info led to another
and looking back it has all helped broaden my understanding of our
homesphere in space.

I realised early that the SOI stats were a bit of a weak correlation for El
Nino/La Nina phases and effects; this prompted me to look for additional
factors. I feel I can't ignore the SOI though; I still want to see it mesh
with the machine, so to speak. I was under the impression the barometric
pressure records had been manually kept at both Darwin and Tahiti since
1876 - providing ability to back-calculate the SOI data. But to be honest, I
don't know the differences in 'calculating the SOI now' compared to
'back-calculating the SOI' - hence the significance is lost on me at the
moment.

What triggers an El Nino? Why do the trade winds falter and fail? <g>
At the moment I'm learning about length-of-day factors. I tend to wander
into other sciences to check ideas on celestial/atmospheric/terrestrial
interactions. Always something to learn about this big planet, and nothing
in isolation  at  the rest - so it's a blast trying to figure out all the
complex interactions! <g>

It would've been more appropriate to title the letter El Nino data
search...sorry bout that.

Regarding 'long-term', in weather forecasting clients I've spoken with are
eager for a 6 to 24 month lead; with an exclusive group requesting a 10 year
lead on violent weather. In research I'm looking at nested cycles with
various periods; as climate change is a related area of interest of mine
I'll tend to analyse data over thousands of years down to days...

I enjoyed your rant Kevin : )
cheers...
Suze






-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Kevin Phyland
Sent: Saturday, 8 February 2003 12:19 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...


Hi Suze et al,

Before I start may I say that I speak ONLY as an interested amateur...

SOIs are great...they tell you the average difference in atmospheric
pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. They can't actually tell you much more
unless you know the changes in SSTs in the Pacific at the same time.

The Bureau's records of SOIs go back a fair way I admit but the vast
majority of them were back-calculated after the 1970s when the interaction
between the ocean currents and weather in Australia was first mooted.

Going back beyond 1880 seems to be stretching some data beyond its
reliability. Also, if "long-term" patterns or predictability is your goal,
it begs the eternal question of what actually TRIGGERS an El Nino or La Nina
event.

Where you live (Logan) is susceptible to El Nino events on a regular basis
but the majority of Australia historically has a poor record of SOI -
drought correlation barring 1982-3 and the current one. I point you to the
1968 drought (in Victoria) etc... just poke through the numbers on the BoM
site...

"Long-term" has always been a bugbear for climatologists..I've harped on
this before...how long is long enough to determine a trend? (How long is a
piece of string?)

An analysis of the SOIs was practically the first thing I did when the data
became widely available...the correlations between low rainfall and low SOI
TRENDS are positive for eastern Australia (particularly north of say
Sydney...I'm not giving a limit here btw)...but for the rest of Australia it
seems that many other factors need to be considered.

The rainfall in south-eastern Australia during the growing season relies on
(among other things) a coincidence between fronts and available moisture.
The north-west rainbands that Victorians so love to see originate in the
ocean off the NW coast of Australia and consequently the SSTs there are a
large factor in the potential for moisture. I believe it is only in the last
five years however that a link *may* have been established between the
warming of the Eastern Pacific and the temperature changes in the ocean
south of Indonesia. I'm yet to see any correlative data atm..

Where am I going here?

The usual place. Statistics are a valid tool for many things. I don't
believe that we have anywhere near enough data on temperature, pressure (and
certainly SSTs and SOIs) to draw any conclusions pattern-wise about  weather
patterns that may have been occurring for thousands/millions or just tens of
years.

Having said that, it is totally appropriate to keep looking! Just don't try
to draw too long a bow when saying A causes B...


Sorry for the rant,
Kevin  at  (a very dry) Wycheproof.







> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:37:42 +1000
>
>Thanks, I'm familiar with BoM, great site they have. I'd pulled SOI tables
> at  the Long Paddock website a few years ago, didn't know BoM had them? A
>mate just sent this link below...so I'll see if Warren Beck is available
>for
>some advice...perhaps info if I ask reeeely nicely : )  Oh, my location is
>Logan, Qld, currently enjoying this cooler weather and the recent soaking
>rains *refreshing...
>Suze =^. .^=
>'Corals Lock El Nino History in Radiocarbon'
>http://www.newswise.com/articles/2001/10/CORALS.UAZ.html
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
>sgalow at ihug.com.au
>Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 8:30 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
>it depends
>for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
>http://www.bom.gov.au/
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
> > Hi,
> > I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> > access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> > article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral
>heads,
> > but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here
>might
> > know of a resource available to help me?
> > Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
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> >
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_________________________________________________________________
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 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 15:32:38 +1000
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Hi Tuan ...you've spelt my name (Suze) incorrectly <g>; you may have me
confused with the lady (Sue) who asked for the forecast? I appreciate you
taking the time to reply so thoroughly, it helps me understand how
professionals are approaching forecasting.

Doesn't matter that your forecasts are enclosed within a private arena, I
gather your peers and clients provide verification. Am I understanding you
correctly, in that you're providing relatively detailed forecasts for your
clients *weeks* in advance - such as the one you've shared for 22nd Mar
Sydney; or are your regular client forecasts of a shorter length?

In my weather forecasting research I tend to regard 14 days as short term,
12 weeks as mid-term, with long-term 6 to 24 months in advance. Is there an
agreed definition of short, mid and long term utilised by meterologists?

Thanks for your honest response on lunar factors; though I hold an opposing
belief, we can agree to disagree, as too much time can be lost to debating
preferred approaches. Besides which, if you achieve quality results without
incorporating lunar factors, I appreciate you would feel there's no
necessity to look any further.

Yep, I understand why you've forecast those values for 22 Mar, and
appreciate the tweaking allowance; thanks very much for explaining in such
detail.
Suze =^. .^=




-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tuan Phan
Sent: Saturday, 8 February 2003 1:37 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


Hi Sue,

To your query:

>may I ask if you've been
>publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?

I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of the
Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL aviation
customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)

>what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
>declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?

The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for a
ride.

I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not inland.
Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
parameters are found here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply the
clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.

>You sound very
>confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:

1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.

2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size of
the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead forecast
do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a particular
location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is same
as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value is
simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
statistical program can work out what this value would be.

3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc, will
at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
 at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad odds.

4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!

5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have done
so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling deg
days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat climatology.
Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
forecasts.

6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques, combined
with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.

Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It doesn't
mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected error.
Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.

Best wishes,
tuan




>Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
>far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing? No
>details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating lunar
>declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
>confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
>publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>Suze =^. .^=


>snip


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 at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 17:19:28 +1100
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Hi Guys,

The thing you have to remember though Neville is that video has been shown
now  at  California that shows smaller pieces coming away  at  the Shuttle
which NASA have said that IF they were parts/panels/tiles coming off the
Shuttle, the damage was already done.  But, that is just conjecture at the
moment as NASA haven't said yes or no as they are still analysing the tape.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Neville Gibb" <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:00 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy


> Hi Tony and Ken
>
> I've also been mulling over Ken's theory a bit and have done a few rough
> calculations.
>
> As mentioned, Feb 1st 'CST' was a New Moon when Columbia crossed the US.
>
> The shuttle was about 63km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high and
the
> earth is about 13,000km wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km
> in just a few minutes.
>
> In San Francisco the moon would not rise for further 1:57 hrs after the
> shuttle had passed just to the north at 7:52am CST. However in just 8
> minutes the moon would be on the central Texas horizon.
>
> The shuttle would have followed a trajectory over Texas of Latitude 34°N
to
> 32°N, before it broke up at 8:00am CST. To view a moonrise at 8:00am CST
on
> Latitude 33°N, you would have to be on Longitude 99°W, or 2° west of
Dallas
> in Central North Texas.
>
> In other words, the time and location for moonrise, matched EXACTLY the
time
> and location that the shuttle broke apart.
>
> Just a little more food for thought.
>
> Neville
>
>
> >  at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
> > Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 21:11:34 +1100
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> >
> > At 10:43 PM 8/02/2003 +1300, you wrote:
> >
> >> Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an
airbulge,
> >> akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in"
when
> >> the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon.
When
> >> the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the
sea
> >> change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination,
lunar
> >> equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
> >> especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
> >> atmospheric conditions can be expected.
> >
> > This makes sense to me.  Afterall, ocean tides and even land tides are
well
> > known phenomena.  In other planetary systems, land tides are very
> > noticeable (e.g. Io orbiting Jupiter) and can cause extreme heating
> > effects.  As the atmosphere is a lower density fluid than water, it is
only
> > common sense to expect it has tides.  And as you maintain, such tides
would
> > not show up significantly on a ground based barometer, due to the
balance
> > of forces involved (I would expect a _minor_ variation in barometric
> > pressure though, because the forces are probably not perfectly in
balance
> > on the ground).
> >
> >> You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not
developed
> >> instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the
barometer
> >> for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the
atmosphere(cf
> >> height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any
place,
> >> which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric
height,
> >> which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar
perigee.
> >
> > The upper atmosphere is also subject to a number of variables.  Lunar
tides
> > are only one.  Solar activity is another (it's a known fact that Skylab
was
> > brought down to Earth earlier than expected due to a period of
significant
> > solar activity before its re-entry.  Lunar tide measurements would have
to
> > take these into account...  One crude way of detecting lunar tides might
be
> > to measure the drag on very low Earth orbiting satellites (could this be
> > done using GPS?).   ISS might be another possibility, since it's
affected
> > by atmospheric drag (and also had on board thrusters to maintain its
orbit).
> >
> >> The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
> >> declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
> >> hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides).
It
> >> also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
> >> factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far
unexplained
> >> air mishaps.
> >
> > I can see it being a factor that affects the deceleration of the shuttle
> > (and therefore the peak temperature).  Certainly more investigation
needed
> > on how different upper atmospheric "profiles" affect re-entry.
> >
> >> Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
> >> authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
> >> reaction as you have expressed elsewhere ­ that any notion that the
moon has
> >> any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
> >> nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
> >> organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
> >> investigation into it, but not before.
> >
> >
> > Ken, while I haven't agrees with all of your theories, I do believe
there
> > is something in this that warrants investigation.  My gut feeling (OK,
> > unscientific :) ) says that a high lunar tide alone is probably not
enough
> > to cause a disaster like Columbia, but I can certainly see how it could
> > exacerbate the effects of a fault with the shuttle itself (by causing
> > higher than expected heating against a damaged heat shield, for
instance).
> >
> > The worst case scenario I can see is where a spacecraft commences
re-entry
> > at a point of relatively "low tide".  If it is travelling  at  a lower
tide
> > area to a higher tide area (as it moved around the Earth), the air
density
> > will increase faster than expected with time, so re-entry temperatures
will
> > be a bit higher (because the spacecraft hits denser air at a faster
> > velocity).  I hope NASA takes this possibility into account when they do
> > their calculations. :-)
> >
> > Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much
this
> > would be a factor.
> >
> >
> > 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> > http://vkradio.com
> >
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> >
>
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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino Data Search (was SOI Data search...)
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 19:35:41 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi
what about the 11 year sun spot cycle giving rise to a strong el nino in the
following year?
(i.e 1971, 1982, 1993 and now next year 2004 ?), first told to me by Neil
Cherry of Lincoln Univeristy in 1988.
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 6:32 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: El Nino Data Search (was SOI Data search...)


> Hi Kevin,
> Grateful for your advice - and taken on board : )
>
> It's hard to define my goal now, I put research down in 98 when diverted
on
> a work project. I'd begun with an initial desire to forecast El Nino (like
> so many others), and then became side-tracked learning more about the
> physics of the planet first. One piece of fascinating info led to another
> and looking back it has all helped broaden my understanding of our
> homesphere in space.
>
> I realised early that the SOI stats were a bit of a weak correlation for
El
> Nino/La Nina phases and effects; this prompted me to look for additional
> factors. I feel I can't ignore the SOI though; I still want to see it mesh
> with the machine, so to speak. I was under the impression the barometric
> pressure records had been manually kept at both Darwin and Tahiti since
> 1876 - providing ability to back-calculate the SOI data. But to be honest,
I
> don't know the differences in 'calculating the SOI now' compared to
> 'back-calculating the SOI' - hence the significance is lost on me at the
> moment.
>
> What triggers an El Nino? Why do the trade winds falter and fail? <g>
> At the moment I'm learning about length-of-day factors. I tend to wander
> into other sciences to check ideas on celestial/atmospheric/terrestrial
> interactions. Always something to learn about this big planet, and nothing
> in isolation  at  the rest - so it's a blast trying to figure out all the
> complex interactions! <g>
>
> It would've been more appropriate to title the letter El Nino data
> search...sorry bout that.
>
> Regarding 'long-term', in weather forecasting clients I've spoken with are
> eager for a 6 to 24 month lead; with an exclusive group requesting a 10
year
> lead on violent weather. In research I'm looking at nested cycles with
> various periods; as climate change is a related area of interest of mine
> I'll tend to analyse data over thousands of years down to days...
>
> I enjoyed your rant Kevin : )
> cheers...
> Suze
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Kevin Phyland
> Sent: Saturday, 8 February 2003 12:19 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
> Hi Suze et al,
>
> Before I start may I say that I speak ONLY as an interested amateur...
>
> SOIs are great...they tell you the average difference in atmospheric
> pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. They can't actually tell you much more
> unless you know the changes in SSTs in the Pacific at the same time.
>
> The Bureau's records of SOIs go back a fair way I admit but the vast
> majority of them were back-calculated after the 1970s when the interaction
> between the ocean currents and weather in Australia was first mooted.
>
> Going back beyond 1880 seems to be stretching some data beyond its
> reliability. Also, if "long-term" patterns or predictability is your goal,
> it begs the eternal question of what actually TRIGGERS an El Nino or La
Nina
> event.
>
> Where you live (Logan) is susceptible to El Nino events on a regular basis
> but the majority of Australia historically has a poor record of SOI -
> drought correlation barring 1982-3 and the current one. I point you to the
> 1968 drought (in Victoria) etc... just poke through the numbers on the BoM
> site...
>
> "Long-term" has always been a bugbear for climatologists..I've harped on
> this before...how long is long enough to determine a trend? (How long is a
> piece of string?)
>
> An analysis of the SOIs was practically the first thing I did when the
data
> became widely available...the correlations between low rainfall and low
SOI
> TRENDS are positive for eastern Australia (particularly north of say
> Sydney...I'm not giving a limit here btw)...but for the rest of Australia
it
> seems that many other factors need to be considered.
>
> The rainfall in south-eastern Australia during the growing season relies
on
> (among other things) a coincidence between fronts and available moisture.
> The north-west rainbands that Victorians so love to see originate in the
> ocean off the NW coast of Australia and consequently the SSTs there are a
> large factor in the potential for moisture. I believe it is only in the
last
> five years however that a link *may* have been established between the
> warming of the Eastern Pacific and the temperature changes in the ocean
> south of Indonesia. I'm yet to see any correlative data atm..
>
> Where am I going here?
>
> The usual place. Statistics are a valid tool for many things. I don't
> believe that we have anywhere near enough data on temperature, pressure
(and
> certainly SSTs and SOIs) to draw any conclusions pattern-wise about
weather
> patterns that may have been occurring for thousands/millions or just tens
of
> years.
>
> Having said that, it is totally appropriate to keep looking! Just don't
try
> to draw too long a bow when saying A causes B...
>
>
> Sorry for the rant,
> Kevin  at  (a very dry) Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
> >Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:37:42 +1000
> >
> >Thanks, I'm familiar with BoM, great site they have. I'd pulled SOI
tables
> > at  the Long Paddock website a few years ago, didn't know BoM had them?
A
> >mate just sent this link below...so I'll see if Warren Beck is available
> >for
> >some advice...perhaps info if I ask reeeely nicely : )  Oh, my location
is
> >Logan, Qld, currently enjoying this cooler weather and the recent soaking
> >rains *refreshing...
> >Suze =^. .^=
> >'Corals Lock El Nino History in Radiocarbon'
> >http://www.newswise.com/articles/2001/10/CORALS.UAZ.html
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> > at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
> >sgalow at ihug.com.au
> >Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 8:30 PM
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
> >
> >
> >it depends
> >for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
> >http://www.bom.gov.au/
> >----- Original Message -----
> > at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
> >Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
> >
> >
> > > Hi,
> > > I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> > > access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> > > article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral
> >heads,
> > > but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here
> >might
> > > know of a resource available to help me?
> > > Suze =^. .^=
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> MSN Instant Messenger now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: barometer offset or QFE?
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 19:38:54 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have had arguments over this before.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For personal weather stations (i.e electronic) and 
the gathering of that data by a PC and software, such as</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.weather-display.com/">http://www.weather-display.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>should a simple barometer offset to give MSL 
pressurer, based on your nearest metar reading be enough, or should you be using 
QFE adjusted reading, based on your altitude (and your last 12 hour temperature, 
etc).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That option is available in the above 
software</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers<BR>Brian </FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: This list is  . . . .
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 19:42:38 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>if you are refering to the moon stuff, I hope 
people dont belive i think the moon CONTROLS the weather as Ken 
does.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But i do think there maybe a pontential 
influence,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i.e, if there is a weather system around that will 
bring unsettled weather when ken says rain, then the weather will be more 
unsettled than normal forecasts would predict , and vice versa (i.e sometimes 
the forecast overshoots or undershoots what actualy eventuates, and maybe the 
moon is to blame....).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But it could be all codswallup!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Cheers<BR>Brian </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A href="mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au" title=james at trapdoor.com.au>James 
  Holbeach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 09, 2003 5:48 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: This list is . . . 
  .</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=Section1>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Hilarious sometimes . . . <SPAN 
  style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Am I the only person who has been 
  pissing themselves?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Wingdings size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Wingdings; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><SPAN 
  style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">J</SPAN></SPAN></FONT><FONT 
  face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Peace Love and <SPAN 
  class=SpellE>Mungbeans</SPAN> baby . . . . <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">James<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">James 
  Holbeach</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">Trapdoor Ski 
  Club </SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><st1:place><st1:City><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">Mt. 
  Hotham</SPAN></FONT></st1:City><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">, 
  </SPAN></FONT><st1:country-region><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">Australia</SPAN></FONT></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">ph. 0417 553 
  757</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes"><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</A></SPAN></FONT><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 17:57:43 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 09/02/2003 05:57:42 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


HI.

Storms around Oberon area. A few lightning strikes hitting poles. Faults
around Dubbo/Wellington/Coonabarabran.

More to follow.

Dave



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 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: El Nino Data Search (was SOI Data search...)
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 18:17:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Suze,

If you are interested I can send you the PowerPoint presentation I gave at
the ASWA AGM last year (I don't know if you were there..I suspect not). It
generally addresses El Nino, and also specifically addresses correlations of
rainfall (Sydney) and thunderstorm occurrence (Seven Hills, where I live).
Might show other things useful to you although it wasn't an attempt at
forecasting future trends.

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 4:32 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: El Nino Data Search (was SOI Data search...)


Hi Kevin,
Grateful for your advice - and taken on board : )

It's hard to define my goal now, I put research down in 98 when diverted on
a work project. I'd begun with an initial desire to forecast El Nino (like
so many others), and then became side-tracked learning more about the
physics of the planet first. One piece of fascinating info led to another
and looking back it has all helped broaden my understanding of our
homesphere in space.

I realised early that the SOI stats were a bit of a weak correlation for El
Nino/La Nina phases and effects; this prompted me to look for additional
factors. I feel I can't ignore the SOI though; I still want to see it mesh
with the machine, so to speak. I was under the impression the barometric
pressure records had been manually kept at both Darwin and Tahiti since
1876 - providing ability to back-calculate the SOI data. But to be honest, I
don't know the differences in 'calculating the SOI now' compared to
'back-calculating the SOI' - hence the significance is lost on me at the
moment.

What triggers an El Nino? Why do the trade winds falter and fail? <g>
At the moment I'm learning about length-of-day factors. I tend to wander
into other sciences to check ideas on celestial/atmospheric/terrestrial
interactions. Always something to learn about this big planet, and nothing
in isolation  at  the rest - so it's a blast trying to figure out all the
complex interactions! <g>

It would've been more appropriate to title the letter El Nino data
search...sorry bout that.

Regarding 'long-term', in weather forecasting clients I've spoken with are
eager for a 6 to 24 month lead; with an exclusive group requesting a 10 year
lead on violent weather. In research I'm looking at nested cycles with
various periods; as climate change is a related area of interest of mine
I'll tend to analyse data over thousands of years down to days...

I enjoyed your rant Kevin : )
cheers...
Suze






-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Kevin Phyland
Sent: Saturday, 8 February 2003 12:19 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...


Hi Suze et al,

Before I start may I say that I speak ONLY as an interested amateur...

SOIs are great...they tell you the average difference in atmospheric
pressure between Tahiti and Darwin. They can't actually tell you much more
unless you know the changes in SSTs in the Pacific at the same time.

The Bureau's records of SOIs go back a fair way I admit but the vast
majority of them were back-calculated after the 1970s when the interaction
between the ocean currents and weather in Australia was first mooted.

Going back beyond 1880 seems to be stretching some data beyond its
reliability. Also, if "long-term" patterns or predictability is your goal,
it begs the eternal question of what actually TRIGGERS an El Nino or La Nina
event.

Where you live (Logan) is susceptible to El Nino events on a regular basis
but the majority of Australia historically has a poor record of SOI -
drought correlation barring 1982-3 and the current one. I point you to the
1968 drought (in Victoria) etc... just poke through the numbers on the BoM
site...

"Long-term" has always been a bugbear for climatologists..I've harped on
this before...how long is long enough to determine a trend? (How long is a
piece of string?)

An analysis of the SOIs was practically the first thing I did when the data
became widely available...the correlations between low rainfall and low SOI
TRENDS are positive for eastern Australia (particularly north of say
Sydney...I'm not giving a limit here btw)...but for the rest of Australia it
seems that many other factors need to be considered.

The rainfall in south-eastern Australia during the growing season relies on
(among other things) a coincidence between fronts and available moisture.
The north-west rainbands that Victorians so love to see originate in the
ocean off the NW coast of Australia and consequently the SSTs there are a
large factor in the potential for moisture. I believe it is only in the last
five years however that a link *may* have been established between the
warming of the Eastern Pacific and the temperature changes in the ocean
south of Indonesia. I'm yet to see any correlative data atm..

Where am I going here?

The usual place. Statistics are a valid tool for many things. I don't
believe that we have anywhere near enough data on temperature, pressure (and
certainly SSTs and SOIs) to draw any conclusions pattern-wise about  weather
patterns that may have been occurring for thousands/millions or just tens of
years.

Having said that, it is totally appropriate to keep looking! Just don't try
to draw too long a bow when saying A causes B...


Sorry for the rant,
Kevin  at  (a very dry) Wycheproof.







> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>Date: Fri, 7 Feb 2003 21:37:42 +1000
>
>Thanks, I'm familiar with BoM, great site they have. I'd pulled SOI tables
> at  the Long Paddock website a few years ago, didn't know BoM had them? A
>mate just sent this link below...so I'll see if Warren Beck is available
>for
>some advice...perhaps info if I ask reeeely nicely : )  Oh, my location is
>Logan, Qld, currently enjoying this cooler weather and the recent soaking
>rains *refreshing...
>Suze =^. .^=
>'Corals Lock El Nino History in Radiocarbon'
>http://www.newswise.com/articles/2001/10/CORALS.UAZ.html
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of
>sgalow at ihug.com.au
>Sent: Friday, 7 February 2003 8:30 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
>it depends
>for australia it is at the bureau of met web site
>http://www.bom.gov.au/
>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Suze" <suze at astralynx.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, February 07, 2003 8:02 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: SOI Data search...
>
>
> > Hi,
> > I've been researching the SOI correlations part-time and am wanting to
> > access data prior record-keeping c.1880's. I once brushed across a web
> > article about potential historical El Nino data derived  at  coral
>heads,
> > but can't find the article now <bugger>... wondering if anyone here
>might
> > know of a resource available to help me?
> > Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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_________________________________________________________________
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 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: barometer offset or QFE?
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 18:20:20 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I always set my barograph/barometer &nbsp;to MSL. I 
don't think either approach is wrong..it depends what you want to use it for, as 
long as the setting (reading) is correct for the choice made.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=windy at ps.gen.nz href="mailto:windy at ps.gen.nz">Brian Hamilton</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 09, 2003 5:38 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: barometer offset or 
  QFE?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi everyone</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have had arguments over this 
  before.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For personal weather stations (i.e electronic) 
  and the gathering of that data by a PC and software, such as</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.weather-display.com/">http://www.weather-display.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>should a simple barometer offset to give MSL 
  pressurer, based on your nearest metar reading be enough, or should you be 
  using QFE adjusted reading, based on your altitude (and your last 12 hour 
  temperature, etc).</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That option is available in the above 
  software</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>thanks!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers<BR>Brian 
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 18:36:22 +1100
 at : Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: barometer offset or QFE?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Refer to the "thickness" threads in TWC's forums, there has been
"EXTENSIVE" discussion of this issue there.
Essentially, all the station can measure is station pressure, QFE if you
like.  Conversion to to a quasi QNH is a subject on it's own.  BoM
stations' QNH are calculated based on long term climatalogical data,
which a home station does not have, obviously.  The only other way to do
it is to use a standard calculation based on the station elevation and
either the assumed adiabatic rate, or, some custom fudge generated
depending on local temperature and an assumed adiabatic, not necessarily
the standard dry 10 C / km.
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User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 22:14:48 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Hi Chris

True, and I acknowledge that problems were first noticed at 7:52am over the
Californian coast. I'm not suggesting the moon was the cause and the shuttle
was probably already doomed, but maybe the moon just provided the catalyst.
Also worth noting is the Sun rose about 30 minutes before the Moon which of
course gives us the gravitational combo that produces Spring Tides.
Ken states air-tides occur within 1 hr of moonrise/set, so given the Suns
position and the shuttles height, maybe we could allow a little more leeway.

All just 'smoking gun' stuff, of course - interesting though!

Cheers

Neville  

>  at : "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 17:19:28 +1100
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> Hi Guys,
> 
> The thing you have to remember though Neville is that video has been shown
> now  at  California that shows smaller pieces coming away  at  the Shuttle
> which NASA have said that IF they were parts/panels/tiles coming off the
> Shuttle, the damage was already done.  But, that is just conjecture at the
> moment as NASA haven't said yes or no as they are still analysing the tape.
> 
> Chris
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Neville Gibb" <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:00 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
> 
> 
>> Hi Tony and Ken
>> 
>> I've also been mulling over Ken's theory a bit and have done a few rough
>> calculations.
>> 
>> As mentioned, Feb 1st 'CST' was a New Moon when Columbia crossed the US.
>> 
>> The shuttle was about 63km high, the atmosphere is about 100km high and
> the
>> earth is about 13,000km wide. At mach 18.6 the shuttle could cover 1,000km
>> in just a few minutes.
>> 
>> In San Francisco the moon would not rise for further 1:57 hrs after the
>> shuttle had passed just to the north at 7:52am CST. However in just 8
>> minutes the moon would be on the central Texas horizon.
>> 
>> The shuttle would have followed a trajectory over Texas of Latitude 34°N
> to
>> 32°N, before it broke up at 8:00am CST. To view a moonrise at 8:00am CST
> on
>> Latitude 33°N, you would have to be on Longitude 99°W, or 2° west of
> Dallas
>> in Central North Texas.
>> 
>> In other words, the time and location for moonrise, matched EXACTLY the
> time
>> and location that the shuttle broke apart.
>> 
>> Just a little more food for thought.
>> 
>> Neville
>> 
>> 
>>>  at : "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
>>> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>> Date: Sat, 08 Feb 2003 21:11:34 +1100
>>> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>>> Subject: Re: aus-wx: My view of the Columbia Shuttle tragedy
>>> 
>>> At 10:43 PM 8/02/2003 +1300, you wrote:
>>> 
>>>> Basically, when the moon is out of the sky it takes with it an
> airbulge,
>>>> akin to a water bulge of the seatide, creating a daily airtide; "in"
> when
>>>> the moon is overhead and "out" when the moon goes below the horizon.
> When
>>>> the moon is ON the horizon there is often a wind change, akin to the
> sea
>>>> change as the tide turns. When the moon is at maximum declination,
> lunar
>>>> equinox, perigee and apogee, as well as full and new moon times, and
>>>> especially when these factors combine together, certain consistent
>>>> atmospheric conditions can be expected.
>>> 
>>> This makes sense to me.  Afterall, ocean tides and even land tides are
> well
>>> known phenomena.  In other planetary systems, land tides are very
>>> noticeable (e.g. Io orbiting Jupiter) and can cause extreme heating
>>> effects.  As the atmosphere is a lower density fluid than water, it is
> only
>>> common sense to expect it has tides.  And as you maintain, such tides
> would
>>> not show up significantly on a ground based barometer, due to the
> balance
>>> of forces involved (I would expect a _minor_ variation in barometric
>>> pressure though, because the forces are probably not perfectly in
> balance
>>> on the ground).
>>> 
>>>> You say a "noticeable" air tide. This is the problem. We have not
> developed
>>>> instrumentation to notice it, as we have been preoccupied with the
> barometer
>>>> for 150 years. The barometer will not measure height of the
> atmosphere(cf
>>>> height of the sea= seatide), only weight of the atmosphere at any
> place,
>>>> which is not the same thing. The airtide is a change in atmospheric
> height,
>>>> which I claim can increase by up to 20% for instance during lunar
> perigee.
>>> 
>>> The upper atmosphere is also subject to a number of variables.  Lunar
> tides
>>> are only one.  Solar activity is another (it's a known fact that Skylab
> was
>>> brought down to Earth earlier than expected due to a period of
> significant
>>> solar activity before its re-entry.  Lunar tide measurements would have
> to
>>> take these into account...  One crude way of detecting lunar tides might
> be
>>> to measure the drag on very low Earth orbiting satellites (could this be
>>> done using GPS?).   ISS might be another possibility, since it's
> affected
>>> by atmospheric drag (and also had on board thrusters to maintain its
> orbit).
>>> 
>>>> The Shuttle disaster occurred at a combination of new moon and southern
>>>> declination; both times of a heavier airtide in the northern
>>>> hemisphere(opposite hemispheres to declinations create higher tides).
> It
>>>> also occurred near the hour of moonrise. This may or may not have been
>>>> factorial, but is certainly very much in line with other so far
> unexplained
>>>> air mishaps.
>>> 
>>> I can see it being a factor that affects the deceleration of the shuttle
>>> (and therefore the peak temperature).  Certainly more investigation
> needed
>>> on how different upper atmospheric "profiles" affect re-entry.
>>> 
>>>> Sure, more work has to be done. I have often in the past appealed to
>>>> authorities to start looking at the moon, but I get the same dogmatic
>>>> reaction as you have expressed elsewhere ­ that any notion that the
> moon has
>>>> any effect on anything to do with the atmosphere must be coming  at  a
>>>> nutter. I get no funding  at  anyone. It is up to the tax-funded
>>>> organisations to do the work. One can scoff only after extensive
>>>> investigation into it, but not before.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Ken, while I haven't agrees with all of your theories, I do believe
> there
>>> is something in this that warrants investigation.  My gut feeling (OK,
>>> unscientific :) ) says that a high lunar tide alone is probably not
> enough
>>> to cause a disaster like Columbia, but I can certainly see how it could
>>> exacerbate the effects of a fault with the shuttle itself (by causing
>>> higher than expected heating against a damaged heat shield, for
> instance).
>>> 
>>> The worst case scenario I can see is where a spacecraft commences
> re-entry
>>> at a point of relatively "low tide".  If it is travelling  at  a lower
> tide
>>> area to a higher tide area (as it moved around the Earth), the air
> density
>>> will increase faster than expected with time, so re-entry temperatures
> will
>>> be a bit higher (because the spacecraft hits denser air at a faster
>>> velocity).  I hope NASA takes this possibility into account when they do
>>> their calculations. :-)
>>> 
>>> Anyway, just mulling over Ken's theory a bit.  I don't know how much
> this
>>> would be a factor.
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
>>> http://vkradio.com
>>> 
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>> 
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 at : "Sha" <shambhala at hotkey.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 21:14:56 +1000
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<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>Thanks Neville ... I'm adding to it all the 
time.</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>love</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4>Sha</FONT></EM></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> <A 
title=nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz">Neville Gibb</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 09, 2003 9:10 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Sha<BR><BR>Thanks for URL. Great site! Wasn't getting at you about the 
times. I've just found it seems to be a fairly common mistake. You've certainly 
provided a lot of interesting food for thought. Keep it 
up!<BR>:)<BR>Cheers<BR><BR>Neville </DIV>
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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 19:15:23 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're living
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Both Sydney and Melbourne have been my homes in the past and both have 
greater ranges than Hong Kong where I live now.
My personal lowest temperature was an unofficial one of -12C on a 
max/min thermometer attached to a tentpole in the camping ground near 
Yarangobilly NSW donkeys years ago (possibly late 1960s but more likely  
early 1970's).  I was in the next tent and the milk froze so we had to 
peel off the carton and slice it with the breadknife to add it to our 
cuppa.  My highest was reported on the radio that day as 48C in the 
shade up in NW Western Australia on a day I was driving about 1000 km 
(1972 I think).  The thermometer in my Mistubishi Colt sat on 60C for 
several hours and we each drank ten litres of water.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
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-----Original Message-----
 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:21:49 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're 
living

> Here where I live goes well below zero in winter and into the 40's in
> summer.
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 3:39 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're
> living
> 
> 
> > Here's my current situation:
> >
> > My current residence: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
> > Feb 7th min. temp : -20C
> >
> > My home town: Perth, WA, Australia
> > Feb 7th max temp: +36C
> >
> > Difference: 56C !!!!
> >
> >
> > My record:
> >
> > Madison, WI, Dec 25th, 2000, min temp: -29.4C
> > Perth, WA, Dec 25th, 2000, max temp: 38.7c
> > Difference: 68.1C !!!!!
> >
> >
> > Anyone got some good ones? It could be temp -related, or rain, or
> wind
> etc.
> >
> > Tom
> >
> > 
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> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> > 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [211.28.29.139]
 at : "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 22:45:50 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000080; FONT-FAMILY: Papyrus" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Evening All,<BR><BR>We'll Matt Smith 
and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area yesterday. A Full 
report can now be seen at </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><A 
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><BR>Over the next few weeks SSC 
should be updated with even more chase reports  at  the last two 
months.<BR><BR>James H</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 00:58:31 +1100
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I did see one  at  3pm on the way to work, but that haze was giving me the
s#!ts. got to see a few flashes of purple lightning during a quick break at
work at 10pm, ust got home and checked the radar and storm tracker, more
stuff to the west, slowly coming this way, i could get to see a decent light
show after all.


Cheers
---------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra, ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
*NEW*- A Small WAP service,
Current wx, forecast For Canberra
For mobile phones with WAP.
http://wap.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------
Proud member of the
Australian Severe Weather Association.
www.severeweather.asn.au
***WEBSITE UPDATE***
Redesign is going good, and i *could* have
the new product ready shortly. However - Im am
now playing with CSS and this means a few more
weeks wait. the final product will be much better though!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 3:11 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.


> Simon,
> You may not be able to see them but there are some large Cb tops in the
> Bimberi area of the Brindabellas and a line of large Cu along the main
Range
> to our west. smoke haze has visibility below 35 km at present so clouds
are
> hard to see.
> Gavin
> SSWW Canberra
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
> >Date: Sun, 9 Feb 2003 01:04:41 +1100
> >
> >well, about an hour after i typed this i got some flashes  at  the cells
> >near yass, also a spot of rain  at  the anvil. went to my mates house in
> >gungahlin saw a great inflow band streaching and estimated 10kms  at  the
> >core of the Yass storms. was of the NE edge and direction NE  at  the
storm
> >(or SW into the storm if you like). It was heading N'ly at the time, so
no
> >affect on my mates house except a few spots of rain  at  the anvil, and
> >perhaps 2 anvil crawlers. very dissapointing for me today. All in all, i
> >heard thunder 5 times, saw lightning 2 times, and had ~1mm of "rain"
> >
> >Simon
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> > at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:16 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
> >
> >
> > > I could see the development  at  here, unfotunately for the second day
> >in
> >a
> > > row, NW Canberra got nothing - not even a drop of rain here. the
storms
> > > really broke up over the bindabella's as per usual...
> > > Some shots are here
> > >  www.canberra-wx.com/tempfiles/today/
> > >
> > > Simon
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >  at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 5:01 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Gilmore A.C.T. Friday afternoon.
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > hi all,
> > > > We had our first recorded rainfall since 2nd January when a severe
> >t'storm
> > > > moved northeast across the Tuggeranong Valley (Southern Canberra) It
> > > started
> > > > about 4.10 pm 21.5mm fell in 7-8 minutes with wind gusts  at  the
> >south
> >to
> > > > 66km/hr and small hail.Temperature fell  at  the max of 33.3 deg to
> >19.3
> > > in
> > > > minutes but rise again to 26.5 by 5.30 pm. A chap at Isabella Plains
> > > > recorded 22 mm . THe tuggeranong AWS only recorded 5.6 mm but  B o m
> > > thinks
> > > > the raingauge was blocked. There was local flash flooding of streets
> >and
> > > > sheet runoff on the hills leading to some mud flows in drainage
lines
> >on
> > > the
> > > > hills.Lightning strikes put the local TV Translators off air as well
> >as
> > > > causing our weather station computor to 'lockup' .We lost 3 hours of
> >data
> > > > when power failed to the data logger-thank heavens for the old
> > > > thermohygoraph and anolog aneometer! we would have no record of the
> >storm
> > > > with out them as backup.There are some severe T'storms to west and
we
> >are
> > > on
> > > > a severe Thunderstorm Watch.Any other reports welcome.
> > > > Gavin O'Brien
> > > > Southside Weather Watch Canberra A.C.T.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > > Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> > > > http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral
> > > >
> > > >
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> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to
> http://join.msn.com/?page=features/featuredemail
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 01:03:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000080; FONT-FAMILY: Papyrus" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>As per usual, SSC have done a 
fantatic job, safe to say you guys didn't attend the ASWA meeting then? would 
have been a small turnout i reckon, lol</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=jimboharr at hotmail.com href="mailto:jimboharr at hotmail.com">James 
  Harris</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase 
  - 8 Feb 2003</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Evening All,<BR><BR>We'll Matt 
  Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area yesterday. A 
  Full report can now be seen at </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><A 
  href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><BR>Over the next few weeks SSC 
  should be updated with even more chase reports  at  the last two 
  months.<BR><BR>James H</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Phillip Basil-Jones" <pbones at datafast.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 01:19:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Columbia Shuttle</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY style="COLOR: #000080; FONT-FAMILY: Papyrus" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>11 ppl came. Wasn't much to talk 
about either.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com">Simon 
  Angell</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, February 10, 2003 1:03 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands 
  Chase - 8 Feb 2003</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>As per usual, SSC have done a 
  fantatic job, safe to say you guys didn't attend the ASWA meeting then? would 
  have been a small turnout i reckon, lol</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=jimboharr at hotmail.com href="mailto:jimboharr at hotmail.com">James 
    Harris</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Central Tablelands 
    Chase - 8 Feb 2003</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Evening All,<BR><BR>We'll Matt 
    Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area yesterday. 
    A Full report can now be seen at </FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><A 
    href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm">http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2><BR>Over the next few weeks SSC 
    should be updated with even more chase reports  at  the last two 
    months.<BR><BR>James H</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 02:59:29 +1000
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Tuan,

The amount of 'tug' as you put it, also has rather a lot to do with distance
between the masses, and while the Sun is a much larger mass than the Moon,
it is a hell of lot further away.  Thus, due to the proximity of the Moon,
it has much greater influence on sea tides than the Sun.  While the tug on
air may well be a lot less than the tug on water, one thing is certain,
i.e., the tug due to the moon is proportionally greater on it than the tug
due to the sun, so the air tide due to the moon is obviously going to be
much greater also.

John.

>snip
My basic understanding of gravity. Gravity is the interaction between 2
masses, the heavier the mass, the bigger the tug between the two. Water and
land is dense enough to be affected by the moon's gravity, but air is too
thin (several order of magnitude lower than water) to feel any effect. If I
erred somewhere, do correct me.

>snip
I still have trouble accepting this theory in this current form and with
your current evidence. Have not dismissed it totally but have trouble with
some points. Without a doubt, there is an air tide, given that air can be
seen as a liquid. However, air is much less dense than water (I think about
3 orders of magnitude), hence it's influence by the moon is extremely small,
compared to the solar & other factors. Your claim of 'up to 20%' (25% on NZ
forum) seems far too large to not be detected by satellites  at  space.
Taking the moon & density of air into account, my napkin calculations of the
air tide has it to vary by only .1% (at best but more likely 0.01%) between
peaks and trough (ie ~100m assuming ~100km atmos). Given we already know
that the solar has a big impact on the pressure tide, my napkin calc has the
air tide to vary in the km, dwarfing any influence of the moon.





-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tuan Phan
Sent: Sunday, 9 February 2003 12:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


Paul,

I think you misunderstood/misread my email to Sue. Requests for forecasts
months in advance is pretty common for the BoM and I was trying to help her
understand the current limitations.

>Ever heard the term "pride cometh before BIG fall"......? I look forward to
>what the conditions will be.
I though I had made it clear that research published by others have shown
that NO forecast methods have been found to be superior to the climatology
technique to date for lead time >14 days, giving the amount of details &
numbers she was after. Yes this also include my 16-parameters Butterfly
Oscillation Index (BOI). If you believe their work to be mathematically
flawed, I encourage you to take it up with them.

Pride has nothing to do with what I told Sue. I thought it was pretty clear
that the numbers she got was based climatology and even showed her where it
came  at . Do you actually believe people forecast to 1 decimal place that
far out??? I never mention that it was MY personal forecast. Plagarism would
be the first thing I would be accused of if I try to claim the clim values
as my very own.

>I will sya one thing tho - did not Ken predict
>back a few months ago about the current rain scenario in Qld / East Coast
>etc?
Huh??? I never predicted anything for Qld/East coast and have no idea about
what Ken did. Irrevalant to this debate.

>As for the moon - lets not have jibes at what other people believe.
>YOU dont know it all..... even though you may think you do.
No one can claim they know it all for any subject, and I never made any such
claim. My basic understanding of the weather and its influence comes  at 
classic Newtonian. Where that breaks down, quantum mechanics (Einstein)
takes over. Work by Newton, and others before & after him have shown that
effects of the moon on our weather is many order of magnitude smaller than
other factors and thus can be ignored, just like the Coriolis when dealing
with small scale.

If you or others have scientific research that shows Newton's Laws are
incorrect, I recommend they be verified & published. Then I would take back
my words. I will even guarantee the responsible person the Nobel Prize in
Physics, a similar prize to what I guarantee anyone who claims to have found
a cure for cancer & AIDS.

> If the moon has such an
>effect on the massive bodies of water that cover this planet, then it must
>have an effect on the weather.
Illogical assumption without evidence.

My basic understanding of gravity. Gravity is the interaction between 2
masses, the heavier the mass, the bigger the tug between the two. Water and
land is dense enough to be affected by the moon's gravity, but air is too
thin (several order of magnitude lower than water) to feel any effect. If I
erred somewhere, do correct me.

>Even a person with an inkling of science could agree with that......
No I don't.

tuan
>Paul

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 1:06 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


> Hi Sue,
>
> To your query:
>
> >may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
>
> I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
the
> Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US & England.
> All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
aviation
> customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on average,
> beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
>
> >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
>
> The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride.
>
> I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
inland.
> Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar 22,
> rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> parameters are found here
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
the
> clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
>
> >You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
>
> 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques - persistence,
> climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
>
> 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say 1deg).
> However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
of
> the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
forecast
> do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
particular
> location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the climatology
> technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
same
> as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error value
is
> simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the interested
> location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> statistical program can work out what this value would be.
>
> 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
will
> at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique apart
>  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
odds.
>
> 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve the
> expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly by
> increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage. In
> summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
>
> 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like the
> first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
done
> so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
deg
> days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
climatology.
> Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> forecasts.
>
> 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who forecast
> for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
combined
> with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
>
> Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
doesn't
> mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
error.
> Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
>
> Best wishes,
> tuan
>
>
>
>
> >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters so
> >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're ustilsing?
No
> >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
lunar
> >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >Suze =^. .^=
>
>
> >snip
>

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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 06:28:30 +1300
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hi
ok, so , now, the earth is dense in mass and a solid mass at that...and it
gets pulled 50cm in height by the moon as it passes.....
The ocean is not as dense, and not as solid (i.e it moves more easily), and
it gets pulled a few metres in  height as the moon passes
The atmosphere is 1000 less dense than the ocean, but it can get moved about
extrememly easily, so , how much will it get pulled up as the moon passes?
That is the million dollar Q, is it not?
Some say an insignifcant amount
If you follow my reasong above, it might actualy get pulled up 100's of
metres....
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, February 10, 2003 5:59 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather


> Tuan,
>
> The amount of 'tug' as you put it, also has rather a lot to do with
distance
> between the masses, and while the Sun is a much larger mass than the Moon,
> it is a hell of lot further away.  Thus, due to the proximity of the Moon,
> it has much greater influence on sea tides than the Sun.  While the tug on
> air may well be a lot less than the tug on water, one thing is certain,
> i.e., the tug due to the moon is proportionally greater on it than the tug
> due to the sun, so the air tide due to the moon is obviously going to be
> much greater also.
>
> John.
>
> >snip
> My basic understanding of gravity. Gravity is the interaction between 2
> masses, the heavier the mass, the bigger the tug between the two. Water
and
> land is dense enough to be affected by the moon's gravity, but air is too
> thin (several order of magnitude lower than water) to feel any effect. If
I
> erred somewhere, do correct me.
>
> >snip
> I still have trouble accepting this theory in this current form and with
> your current evidence. Have not dismissed it totally but have trouble with
> some points. Without a doubt, there is an air tide, given that air can be
> seen as a liquid. However, air is much less dense than water (I think
about
> 3 orders of magnitude), hence it's influence by the moon is extremely
small,
> compared to the solar & other factors. Your claim of 'up to 20%' (25% on
NZ
> forum) seems far too large to not be detected by satellites  at  space.
> Taking the moon & density of air into account, my napkin calculations of
the
> air tide has it to vary by only .1% (at best but more likely 0.01%)
between
> peaks and trough (ie ~100m assuming ~100km atmos). Given we already know
> that the solar has a big impact on the pressure tide, my napkin calc has
the
> air tide to vary in the km, dwarfing any influence of the moon.
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>  at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tuan Phan
> Sent: Sunday, 9 February 2003 12:33 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
> Paul,
>
> I think you misunderstood/misread my email to Sue. Requests for forecasts
> months in advance is pretty common for the BoM and I was trying to help
her
> understand the current limitations.
>
> >Ever heard the term "pride cometh before BIG fall"......? I look forward
to
> >what the conditions will be.
> I though I had made it clear that research published by others have shown
> that NO forecast methods have been found to be superior to the climatology
> technique to date for lead time >14 days, giving the amount of details &
> numbers she was after. Yes this also include my 16-parameters Butterfly
> Oscillation Index (BOI). If you believe their work to be mathematically
> flawed, I encourage you to take it up with them.
>
> Pride has nothing to do with what I told Sue. I thought it was pretty
clear
> that the numbers she got was based climatology and even showed her where
it
> came  at . Do you actually believe people forecast to 1 decimal place that
> far out??? I never mention that it was MY personal forecast. Plagarism
would
> be the first thing I would be accused of if I try to claim the clim values
> as my very own.
>
> >I will sya one thing tho - did not Ken predict
> >back a few months ago about the current rain scenario in Qld / East Coast
> >etc?
> Huh??? I never predicted anything for Qld/East coast and have no idea
about
> what Ken did. Irrevalant to this debate.
>
> >As for the moon - lets not have jibes at what other people believe.
> >YOU dont know it all..... even though you may think you do.
> No one can claim they know it all for any subject, and I never made any
such
> claim. My basic understanding of the weather and its influence comes  at 
> classic Newtonian. Where that breaks down, quantum mechanics (Einstein)
> takes over. Work by Newton, and others before & after him have shown that
> effects of the moon on our weather is many order of magnitude smaller than
> other factors and thus can be ignored, just like the Coriolis when dealing
> with small scale.
>
> If you or others have scientific research that shows Newton's Laws are
> incorrect, I recommend they be verified & published. Then I would take
back
> my words. I will even guarantee the responsible person the Nobel Prize in
> Physics, a similar prize to what I guarantee anyone who claims to have
found
> a cure for cancer & AIDS.
>
> > If the moon has such an
> >effect on the massive bodies of water that cover this planet, then it
must
> >have an effect on the weather.
> Illogical assumption without evidence.
>
> My basic understanding of gravity. Gravity is the interaction between 2
> masses, the heavier the mass, the bigger the tug between the two. Water
and
> land is dense enough to be affected by the moon's gravity, but air is too
> thin (several order of magnitude lower than water) to feel any effect. If
I
> erred somewhere, do correct me.
>
> >Even a person with an inkling of science could agree with that......
> No I don't.
>
> tuan
> >Paul
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 1:06 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
> > Hi Sue,
> >
> > To your query:
> >
> > >may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >
> > I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> > involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
> the
> > Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> > under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US &
England.
> > All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
> aviation
> > customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on
average,
> > beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> > each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
> >
> > >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're
incorporating
> > lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
> >
> > The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
what
> > some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself
for
> a
> > ride.
> >
> > I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
> inland.
> > Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar
22,
> > rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> > parameters are found here
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> > There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
> the
> > clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
> >
> > >You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> > Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> > For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
> >
> > 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques -
persistence,
> > climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> > Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> > because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
> >
> > 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say
1deg).
> > However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
> of
> > the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
> forecast
> > do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> > days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> > limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
> particular
> > location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the
climatology
> > technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
> same
> > as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error
value
> is
> > simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the
interested
> > location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> > statistical program can work out what this value would be.
> >
> > 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> > 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
> will
> > at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> > higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> > found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique
apart
> >  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
> odds.
> >
> > 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve
the
> > expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly
by
> > increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage.
In
> > summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> > anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
> >
> > 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> > clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like
the
> > first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
> done
> > so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
> deg
> > days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
> climatology.
> > Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> > clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> > only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> > forecasts.
> >
> > 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who
forecast
> > for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
> combined
> > with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
> >
> > Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
> doesn't
> > mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
> error.
> > Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > tuan
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters
so
> > >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're
ustilsing?
> No
> > >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> > >Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
> > >snip
> >
>
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Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 12:29:49 -0600
 at : Tom Johnstone <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're  living
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<x-flowed>
Actually, what I was referring to was prompted by a phone call back home, 
where due to the time difference, my brother was complaining about the mid 
day heat, and I was complaining about the midnight cold here in Madison. It 
got me to thinking about the difference, at any given time, between where 
I'm living and my home town - I often find myself thinking, in the middle 
of a cold spell here in Madison, about how hot it is in Perth.

For example, last night here in Madison it was -19C, while in Perth the 
maximum was +41C, a difference of 60C!

Tom

At 07:15 PM 2/9/2003 +0800, you wrote:
>Both Sydney and Melbourne have been my homes in the past and both have
>greater ranges than Hong Kong where I live now.
>My personal lowest temperature was an unofficial one of -12C on a
>max/min thermometer attached to a tentpole in the camping ground near
>Yarangobilly NSW donkeys years ago (possibly late 1960s but more likely
>early 1970's).  I was in the next tent and the milk froze so we had to
>peel off the carton and slice it with the breadknife to add it to our
>cuppa.  My highest was reported on the radio that day as 48C in the
>shade up in NW Western Australia on a day I was driving about 1000 km
>(1972 I think).  The thermometer in my Mistubishi Colt sat on 60C for
>several hours and we each drank ten litres of water.
>
>Phil
><><
>
>International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
>Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
>MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
>Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
>Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
>Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:21:49 +1100
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're
>living
>
> > Here where I live goes well below zero in winter and into the 40's in
> > summer.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 3:39 AM
> > Subject: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're
> > living
> >
> >
> > > Here's my current situation:
> > >
> > > My current residence: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
> > > Feb 7th min. temp : -20C
> > >
> > > My home town: Perth, WA, Australia
> > > Feb 7th max temp: +36C
> > >
> > > Difference: 56C !!!!
> > >
> > >
> > > My record:
> > >
> > > Madison, WI, Dec 25th, 2000, min temp: -29.4C
> > > Perth, WA, Dec 25th, 2000, max temp: 38.7c
> > > Difference: 68.1C !!!!!
> > >
> > >
> > > Anyone got some good ones? It could be temp -related, or rain, or
> > wind
> > etc.
> > >
> > > Tom
> > >
> > >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > >  message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 09 Feb 2003 12:32:40 -0600
 at : Tom Johnstone <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're  living
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<x-flowed>
I liked this story though. Reminds me of when I was camping up in the 
Pilbera in the 1970s and one of the guys up there was telling us of when 
they first introduced the Range Rover to Australia, and a couple of city 
folk  at  Perth drove them up there on holiday. After a couple of 
particularly hot days, they found that their dashboard had started to droop 
- it was literally starting to melt. Don't know if it's true, but having 
been up there in summer, it wasn't hard to believe.

Tom

At 07:15 PM 2/9/2003 +0800, you wrote:
>Both Sydney and Melbourne have been my homes in the past and both have
>greater ranges than Hong Kong where I live now.
>My personal lowest temperature was an unofficial one of -12C on a
>max/min thermometer attached to a tentpole in the camping ground near
>Yarangobilly NSW donkeys years ago (possibly late 1960s but more likely
>early 1970's).  I was in the next tent and the milk froze so we had to
>peel off the carton and slice it with the breadknife to add it to our
>cuppa.  My highest was reported on the radio that day as 48C in the
>shade up in NW Western Australia on a day I was driving about 1000 km
>(1972 I think).  The thermometer in my Mistubishi Colt sat on 60C for
>several hours and we each drank ten litres of water.
>
>Phil
><><
>
>International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
>Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
>MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
>Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
>Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
>Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 09:21:49 +1100
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're
>living
>
> > Here where I live goes well below zero in winter and into the 40's in
> > summer.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tom Johnstone" <itjohnstone at wisc.edu>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 3:39 AM
> > Subject: aus-wx: extreme difference between home and where you're
> > living
> >
> >
> > > Here's my current situation:
> > >
> > > My current residence: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
> > > Feb 7th min. temp : -20C
> > >
> > > My home town: Perth, WA, Australia
> > > Feb 7th max temp: +36C
> > >
> > > Difference: 56C !!!!
> > >
> > >
> > > My record:
> > >
> > > Madison, WI, Dec 25th, 2000, min temp: -29.4C
> > > Perth, WA, Dec 25th, 2000, max temp: 38.7c
> > > Difference: 68.1C !!!!!
> > >
> > >
> > > Anyone got some good ones? It could be temp -related, or rain, or
> > wind
> > etc.
> > >
> > > Tom
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 08:33:30 +1300
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Hi all again

This whole moon atmosphere tide thing has me thinking
Some say the atmosphereic tide is neglible, at 0.1 %
Now some basic principles of gravity:
The gravitational pull on an object by another object is the same regardless
of that object mass.
So that means a jumbo jet and a feather dropped  at  a great altitude in a
vacuum will fall to earth at the same speed (well actualy the jumbo jet will
hae its own gravitational pull trying to pull the earth to it, but its soo
small we can forget that).
Now, with the atmosphere, it is in layers.
I.e it is heaviest at the surface, i.e has more mass, becuause of the weight
of atmosphere above, and lightest at the very edge in space, where it has no
more weight above and is very thin, i.e spread out, i.e low density,
compared to at the surface.
BUT it is still pulled by the moons gravity (and earths gravity the opposite
way) by the same amount as at the surface.
So the whole vertical profile of the atmosphere gets pulled by the moon by
the same amount (actualy the top will be pulled slight stronger becuase it
is closer to the moon, but by a very small difference, so we can ignore
that)
SO, how much does the atmosphere get pulled up by the moon as a atmosphere
tidal bulge?
I think you would find it will be much more than some think.
But how do you measure it? (as the barometer does not work, as there is
still the same mass under that bulge)
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather


> >The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
what
> some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for
a
> ride..It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can
beat
> clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them.."
>
> Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some
> have found that lunar forecasts work for them, so you cannot speak for
> everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to continually
> make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not
> rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods. Perhaps you need to
learn
> that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold
all
> the answers.
> I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but solid
> test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia,
well
> beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your
averages
> etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for
the
> potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be too
> difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are
you
> game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout off..?
> cheers
> Ken Ring
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 4:36 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather
>
>
> > Hi Sue,
> >
> > To your query:
> >
> > >may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> >
> > I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job
> > involves forecasting and analysis of all sig wx >10k ft for our half of
> the
> > Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated
> > under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US &
England.
> > All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL
> aviation
> > customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on
average,
> > beat other overseas forecasters & save them at least a six figure amount
> > each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)
> >
> > >what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're
incorporating
> > lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?
> >
> > The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite
what
> > some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself
for
> a
> > ride.
> >
> > I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not
> inland.
> > Forecast of temp & RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar
22,
> > rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'
> > parameters are found here
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml
> > There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply
> the
> > clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.
> >
> > >You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities
> > Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.
> > For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:
> >
> > 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques -
persistence,
> > climatology, manual, etc. Each have their strengths and weaknesses.
> > Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)
> > because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.
> >
> > 2. With persistence & manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say
1deg).
> > However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size
> of
> > the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead
> forecast
> > do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10
> > days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach
> > limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a
> particular
> > location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the
climatology
> > technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is
> same
> > as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error
value
> is
> > simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the
interested
> > location (generally low for tropics & higher for mid-lat). Any simple
> > statistical program can work out what this value would be.
> >
> > 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for
> > 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,
> will
> > at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%
> > higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be
> > found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique
apart
> >  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad
> odds.
> >
> > 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve
the
> > expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly
by
> > increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage.
In
> > summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting
> > anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!
> >
> > 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat
> > clim for lead time > 14days. Great fame & riches await them, just like
the
> > first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have
> done
> > so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling
> deg
> > days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat
> climatology.
> > Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to
> > clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp
> > only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r
> > forecasts.
> >
> > 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who
forecast
> > for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,
> combined
> > with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.
> >
> > Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It
> doesn't
> > mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected
> error.
> > Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > tuan
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters
so
> > >far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're
ustilsing?
> No
> > >details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating
> lunar
> > >declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data? You sound very
> > >confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been
> > >publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?
> > >Suze =^. .^=
> >
> >
> > >snip
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 07:21:55 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>even if the tidal influence was 1000m, the difference&nbsp;in&nbsp;gas density at that height would be negligble and would be a very gradual change over many 1000s of km, it's not like hitting a brick wall or anything. we're talking tides on a global scale, not waves on a local scale.&nbsp;whilst not denying that atmospheric tides exist their influence on re-entry would be negligble and at worst would simply invole some minor course alterations.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Monday, 10 February 2003 6:06:00 AM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Long range weather</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hi all again<BR><BR>This whole moon atmosphere tide thing has me thinking<BR>Some say the atmosphereic tide is neglible, at 0.1 %<BR>Now some basic principles of gravity:<BR>The gravitational pull on an object by another object is the same regardless<BR>of that object mass.<BR>So that means a jumbo jet and a feather dropped  at  a great altitude in a<BR>vacuum will fall to earth at the same speed (well actualy the jumbo jet will<BR>hae its own gravitational pull trying to pull the earth to it, but its soo<BR>small we can forget that).<BR>Now, with the atmosphere, it is in layers.<BR>I.e it is heaviest at the surface, i.e has more mass, becuause of the weight<BR>of atmosphere above, and lightest at the very edge in space, where it has no<BR>more weight above and is very thin, i.e spread out, i.e low density,<BR>compared to at the surface.<BR>BUT it is still pulled by the moons gravity (and earths gravity the opposite<BR>way) by the same amount as at the surface.<BR>So the whole vertical profile of the atmosphere gets pulled by the moon by<BR>the same amount (actualy the top will be pulled slight stronger becuase it<BR>is closer to the moon, but by a very small difference, so we can ignore<BR>that)<BR>SO, how much does the atmosphere get pulled up by the moon as a atmosphere<BR>tidal bulge?<BR>I think you would find it will be much more than some think.<BR>But how do you measure it? (as the barometer does not work, as there is<BR>still the same mass under that bulge)<BR>Cheers<BR>Brian<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR> at : "Ken Ring" &lt;<A href="mailto:ken at weatherman.co.nz">ken at weatherman.co.nz</A>&gt;<BR>To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM<BR>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR><BR><BR>&gt; &gt;The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite<BR>what<BR>&gt; some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself for<BR>a<BR>&gt; ride..It would be amaziRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
ng if anyone can come up with a method that can<BR>beat<BR>&gt; clim for lead time &gt; 14days. Great fame &amp; riches await them.."<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; Tuan, it would be more honest to say that it was only your opinion. Some<BR>&gt; have found that lunar forecasts work for them, so you cannot speak for<BR>&gt; everybody, a mistake some professional meteorologists seem to continually<BR>&gt; make. Sue may indeed find what I said useful - and I am certainly not<BR>&gt; rubbishing what YOU forecast based on BoM methods. Perhaps you need to<BR>learn<BR>&gt; that there are other approaches out there and that the BoM doesn't hold<BR>all<BR>&gt; the answers.<BR>&gt; I suggest forget great fame and riches. Let's just have a simple but solid<BR>&gt; test, your methods against mine.. Name a month and a town in Australia,<BR>well<BR>&gt; beyond the reach of 14 days. You submit your forecast based on your<BR>averages<BR>&gt; etc and I'll submit mine based on the moon. Let's look at day/dates for<BR>the<BR>&gt; potential of expected rainfall for that location. Surely shouldn't be too<BR>&gt; difficult for someone with access to all the data you say you have. Are<BR>you<BR>&gt; game to put yourself on the line? Or are you just the latest spout off..?<BR>&gt; cheers<BR>&gt; Ken Ring<BR>&gt; <A href="http://www.predictweather.com">www.predictweather.com</A><BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; ----- Original Message -----<BR>&gt;  at : "Tuan Phan" &lt;<A href="mailto:t.phan at bom.gov.au">t.phan at bom.gov.au</A>&gt;<BR>&gt; To: &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;<BR>&gt; Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 4:36 PM<BR>&gt; Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; Hi Sue,<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; To your query:<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;may I ask if you've been<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; I am an operational forecaster with the BoM in Melb. A part of my job<BR>&gt; &gt; involves forecasting and analyRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
sis of all sig wx &gt;10k ft for our half of<BR>&gt; the<BR>&gt; &gt; Sthn Hemisphere. Every single forecast of mine is analysed and evaluated<BR>&gt; &gt; under set conditions, and also against forecasters  at  the US &amp;<BR>England.<BR>&gt; &gt; All my results are available, unfortunately, to internally and ALL<BR>&gt; aviation<BR>&gt; &gt; customers (eg Qantas, Virgin) only. Put it simply, if I can't, on<BR>average,<BR>&gt; &gt; beat other overseas forecasters &amp; save them at least a six figure amount<BR>&gt; &gt; each year with my forecasts, I wouldn't have a job :)<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;what system you're ustilsing? ... just wondering if you're<BR>incorporating<BR>&gt; &gt; lunar<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;declination cycles, or are you cycling historical data?<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; The moon has no effect on the weather OR climate of the earth despite<BR>what<BR>&gt; &gt; some people will sell you. They are simply taking you and/or themself<BR>for<BR>&gt; a<BR>&gt; &gt; ride.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; I have assumed that the wedding is to be held near the city and not<BR>&gt; inland.<BR>&gt; &gt; Forecast of temp &amp; RH is  at  the clim average (1859 to 1992) for Mar<BR>22,<BR>&gt; &gt; rather than just the monthly average of Mar. The other 'forecasts'<BR>&gt; &gt; parameters are found here<BR>&gt; &gt; <A href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml">http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062.shtml</A><BR>&gt; &gt; There is nothing mysterious about the forecasts at all. They are simply<BR>&gt; the<BR>&gt; &gt; clim average with some minor fine tunning by me.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;You sound very<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities<BR>&gt; &gt; Yes! I sound cocky but you will see why this is so shortly.<BR>&gt; &gt; For your understanding and other interested people, this is why:<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 1. There are several types of basic forecasting techniques -<BR>persistence,<BR>&gt; &gt; climatology, manual, etc. Each have theRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
ir strengths and weaknesses.<BR>&gt; &gt; Basically, manual forecasts are best for short term (1 to say 6/7 days)<BR>&gt; &gt; because of the human factor. Persistence is very strong in the tropics.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 2. With persistence &amp; manual, expected error for +24Hr is low (say<BR>1deg).<BR>&gt; &gt; However this increases with longer outlooks but with a limit to the size<BR>&gt; of<BR>&gt; &gt; the error (ie. you don't expect a 100deg error for a 6 months ahead<BR>&gt; forecast<BR>&gt; &gt; do you? ;) ). Anyway the current limit for manual is believed to be 7-10<BR>&gt; &gt; days but theory suggests 14 days is possible. Persistence tends to reach<BR>&gt; &gt; limit faster than manual but both will have the SAME limit for a<BR>&gt; particular<BR>&gt; &gt; location. What this value is will be discussed later. For the<BR>climatology<BR>&gt; &gt; technique (ignoring seasonal factors, etc), expected error for day 1 is<BR>&gt; same<BR>&gt; &gt; as for day 10 and also for day n in the future. This expected error<BR>value<BR>&gt; is<BR>&gt; &gt; simply the standard deviation (range of possible value) of the<BR>interested<BR>&gt; &gt; location (generally low for tropics &amp; higher for mid-lat). Any simple<BR>&gt; &gt; statistical program can work out what this value would be.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 3. Having found the expected error of clim, the expected error for<BR>&gt; &gt; 'persistence', 'manual', moon, sun, stars, butterflies techniques etc,<BR>&gt; will<BR>&gt; &gt; at least be (SQRT 2) times the expected error of climatology (ie 41.4%<BR>&gt; &gt; higher), regardless of the location. The full maths proof of this can be<BR>&gt; &gt; found in several met journals. Therefore, using ANY other technique<BR>apart<BR>&gt; &gt;  at  clim for Mar 22, is simply guessing/gambling with very, very bad<BR>&gt; odds.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 4. Note: It is very possible to tweak the clim ave slightly to improve<BR>the<BR>&gt; &gt; expected error. Eg, say El Nino conditions so I could 'hedge' slightly<BR>byRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
<BR>&gt; &gt; increasing the temp (say .3deg) and/or decrease RH by a few percentage.<BR>In<BR>&gt; &gt; summary for l.r forecasting: without a damn good reason, forecasting<BR>&gt; &gt; anything but clim increases your average error by 41%!<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 5. It would be amazing if anyone can come up with a method that can beat<BR>&gt; &gt; clim for lead time &gt; 14days. Great fame &amp; riches await them, just like<BR>the<BR>&gt; &gt; first person to find a cure for cancer, even though many claim to have<BR>&gt; done<BR>&gt; &gt; so already. Aquila Inc used to run a forecast comp for 'heating/cooling<BR>&gt; deg<BR>&gt; &gt; days for 14+ lead time. $US50k to anyone who comes 1st AND beat<BR>&gt; climatology.<BR>&gt; &gt; Not surprisingly, no one was able to, or even consistently get close to<BR>&gt; &gt; clim. (Basically, every technique under the sun :) was used but the comp<BR>&gt; &gt; only backed up the maths showing how powerful clim is, when used for l.r<BR>&gt; &gt; forecasts.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; 6. An aside: at day 7, NWPs still have some skill. If people who<BR>forecast<BR>&gt; &gt; for various TV channels (day 5-7) used basic 'hedging' techniques,<BR>&gt; combined<BR>&gt; &gt; with basic clim and NWP data, their average error would be a lot better.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; Sue,  at  this hopefully you can see why I forecast those values. It<BR>&gt; doesn't<BR>&gt; &gt; mean it will be correct but it is the only one with the BEST expected<BR>&gt; error.<BR>&gt; &gt; Do seek a second opinion if you are not confident.<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; Best wishes,<BR>&gt; &gt; tuan<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;Hi Tuan, I'm a newbie to the list, muchly enjoying reading the letters<BR>so<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;far. I'm intrigued with your l.r.forecast, what system you're<BR>ustilsing?<BR>&gt; No<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;details necessary of course...just wondering if you're incorporating<BR>&gt; lunar<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;declination cycles, or are you cycling historical datRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
a? You sound very<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;confident in your l.r.forecasting abilities; may I ask if you've been<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;publishing your forecasts and results to establish credibility?<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;Suze =^. .^=<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; &gt;snip<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt; &gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail<BR><A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; &gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of<BR>your<BR>&gt; &gt; message.<BR>&gt; &gt; <A href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt;<BR>&gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>&gt; message.<BR>&gt; <A href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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Embedded Content: IMSTP101.gif: 00000001,752f7e8e,00000000,00000000
 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 10:46:00 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 10/02/2003 10:45:56 AM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi James,

Fantastic report.. It was a great storm.. It all started around 2.30pm.. I
was in the shopping centre and you could here the huge cracks  at 
lightning hitting very close to shopping area. I spotted many strikes hit
in the town area  at  friends place. Traffic lights over Bathurst all out,
flooded roads towards Orange were closed. At one stage a fault was reported
where the road was flooded.. there was no way getting accross the water.
Police and SES called to many houses flooded. Hail came down, only small
though, last about 10 min. A report heard was a car stranded in water was
washed away, driver was stuck.

Last night I had worked and we had more storms which came  at  the South.
Oberon had a few problems last night as well with lightning strikes.

Hope we see some more storms today

Regards
Dave


----- Forwarded by David Carroll/People/Country Energy on 10/02/2003 08:23
AM -----
                                                                                                                                 
                    "James Harris"                                                                                               
                    <jimboharr at hotmail.com>            To:     <aussie-weather at world.std.com>                                    
                    Sent by:                           cc:                                                                       
                    aussie-weather-approval at wor        Subject:     aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003                
                    ld.std.com                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 
                    09/02/2003 10:45 PM                                                                                          
                    Please respond to                                                                                            
                    aussie-weather                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 




Evening All,

We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst
area yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm

Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports
 at  the last two months.

James H




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 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 11:03:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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> Evening All,
>
> We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst
> area yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm
>
> Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports
>  at  the last two months.
>
> James H

Morning all,

I was running around to the west of James & Matt on Saturday and will have
pics up (hopefully tonight) of storms beginning near Cowra and out to the
Parkes & Peak Hill area during the afternoon and evening.  Also saw a rather
impressive (enormous!!) dust devil, but unfortunately the video is rather
shaky and it was well out on the other side of a 50kmh town -
Canowindra!!!!!!!!!!! (that has to be the definition of "FRUSTRATION"!!!!!

Areas out that way saw puddles like they probably hadn't seen for a lot of
months. A lot of blowing dust on the outflow of rainshafts was a common
feature the further west I went.

Cheers,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky and Weather
www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward.***
--------------------------------

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X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 12:16:53 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Feb 2003 01:16:53.0470 (UTC) FILETIME=[1888E7E0:01C2D0A2]
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>thanks jane, david, matt, james</P>
<P>am kicking myself - targeted Cowra - Bathurst area saturday morning, after looking at Li, CAPE data, then as i was leaving was 'seduced', to stay put,&nbsp;by&nbsp;a large cell, over the Sth ACT.</P>
<P>with the lack of steering winds,&nbsp;this lugubrious&nbsp;storm&nbsp;basically sat there and did SFA.</P>
<P>oh well - look forward to reading all the reports, and there's always this afternoon and tomorrow!<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Jane ONeill" <CADENCE at AUSTRALIANSKYNWEATHER.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 11:03:23 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Evening All, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; area yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;  at  the last two months. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; James H 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Morning all, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I was running around to the west of James &amp; Matt on Saturday and will have 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;pics up (hopefully tonight) of storms beginning near Cowra and out to the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Parkes &amp; Peak Hill area during the afternoon and evening. Also saw a rather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;impressive (enormous!!) dust devil, but unfortunately the video is rather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;shaky and it was well out on the other side of a 50kmh town - 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Canowindra!!!!!!!!!!! (that has to be the definition of "FRUSTRATION"!!!!! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Areas out that way saw puddles like they probably hadn't seen for a lot of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;months. A lot of blowing dust on the outflow of rainshafts was a common 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;feature the further west I went. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Cheers, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jane 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jane ONeill - Melbourne 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;cadence at australianskynweather.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Australian Sky and Weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;www.stormchasers.au.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;ASWA - Victoria 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.severeweather.asn.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;***The journey is the reward.*** 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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</x-html>
 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 13:04:15 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 10/02/2003 01:04:20 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



HI All.

Anyone wanting to see the reports  at  the local paper, goto this link.

http://www.bathurst.yourguide.com.au/home.asp

I have a copy of the paper if anyone wanted it faxed..

Pls email me off list..

Dave




                                                                                                                                 
                    "michael king"                                                                                               
                    <mskikey at hotmail.com>              To:     aussie-weather at world.std.com                                      
                    Sent by:                           cc:                                                                       
                    aussie-weather-approval at wor        Subject:     Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003            
                    ld.std.com                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 
                    10/02/2003 12:16 PM                                                                                          
                    Please respond to                                                                                            
                    aussie-weather                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                 




thanks jane, david, matt, james


am kicking myself - targeted Cowra - Bathurst area saturday morning, after
looking at Li, CAPE data, then as i was leaving was 'seduced', to stay put,
by a large cell, over the Sth ACT.


with the lack of steering winds, this lugubrious storm basically sat there
and did SFA.


oh well - look forward to reading all the reports, and there's always this
afternoon and tomorrow!



> at : "Jane ONeill"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
>Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 11:03:23 +1100
>
> > Evening All,
> >
> > We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst
> > area yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
> > http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm
> >
> > Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase
reports
> >  at  the last two months.
> >
> > James H
>
>Morning all,
>
>I was running around to the west of James & Matt on Saturday and will have
>pics up (hopefully tonight) of storms beginning near Cowra and out to the
>Parkes & Peak Hill area during the afternoon and evening. Also saw a
rather
>impressive (enormous!!) dust devil, but unfortunately the video is rather
>shaky and it was well out on the other side of a 50kmh town -
>Canowindra!!!!!!!!!!! (that has to be the definition of "FRUSTRATION"!!!!!
>
>Areas out that way saw puddles like they probably hadn't seen for a lot of
>months. A lot of blowing dust on the outflow of rainshafts was a common
>feature the further west I went.
>
>Cheers,
>
>Jane
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
>Australian Sky and Weather
>www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>***The journey is the reward.***
>--------------------------------
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

MSN Instant Messenger now available on Australian mobile phones. Find our
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 at : David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst rain
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7  March 21, 2001
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 13:29:01 +1100
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May
 14, 2001) at 10/02/2003 01:29:13 PM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


HI

Well its raining again in Bathurst...  A nice steady fall..

Anyone looking at radar for Sydney.. pink/red images near Appin..

Dave




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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Sydney Storm
Date: Mon, 10 Feb 2003 18:32:07 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We had a lovely 8.5 mm at Mona Vale&nbsp; at  the 
storm but weren't home at the time.&nbsp; We found the best place at Clontarf to 
watch it  at .</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Matthew Piper" <mpiper at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 12:57:49 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Re: aus-wx: Columbia ShuttleJeff Brislane and myself also encountered the
severe storm which hit Bathurst on Saturday. We were situated at the top of
Mount Panorama and gained what I can only describe as a truly astonishing
view of this storm. Sit back and enjoy some of the following photographic
delights :)

Rain Shaft Video Stills

http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst1.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst2.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst3.jpg

Lightning Video Stills

http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning1.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning2.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning3.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning4.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning5.jpg

----- Original Message -----
 at : James Harris
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003


Evening All,

We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area
yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm

Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports
 at  the last two months.

James H


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 5.0 (1513)
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 14:20:15 +1200
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather
 at : Neville Gibb <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: Long range weather</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
Hi Richard<BR>
<BR>
With respect, this sounds like opinion based on assumption.<BR>
I'm no 'air-tide' expert, but here's another assumption: If air is pulled laterally towards the moon at moonrise, then a short time later it is replaced as the moon rises, this could create eddy's. Not a 'brick wall' but a wall of sorts nevertheless.<BR>
Just a thought.<BR>
<BR>
Neville <BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<B> at : </B>&quot;Richard Modistach&quot; &lt;hambone at dodo.com.au&gt;<BR>
<B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B>Date: </B>Mon, 10 Feb 2003 07:21:55 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)<BR>
<B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
<B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>even if the tidal influence was 1000m, the difference in gas density at that height would be negligble and would be a very gradual change over many 1000s of km, it's not like hitting a brick wall or anything. we're talking tides on a global scale, not waves on a local scale. whilst not denying that atmospheric tides exist their influence on re-entry would be negligble and at worst would simply invole some minor course alterations.<BR>
<BR>
richard<BR>
<BR>
<I>-------Original Message-------<BR>
</I> <BR>
<B><I> at :</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B><I>Date:</I></B> Monday, 10 February 2003 6:06:00 AM<BR>
<B><I>To:</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
<B><I>Subject:</I></B> Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR>
<BR>
Hi all again<BR>
<BR>
This whole moon atmosphere tide thing has me thinking<BR>
Some say the atmosphereic tide is neglible, at 0.1 %<BR>
Now some basic principles of gravity:<BR>
The gravitational pull on an object by another object is the same regardless<BR>
of that object mass.<BR>
So that means a jumbo jet and a feather dropped  at  a great altitude in a<BR>
vacuum will fall to earth at the same speed (well actualy the jumbo jet will<BR>
hae its own gravitational pull trying to pull the earth to it, but its soo<BR>
small we can forget that).<BR>
Now, with the atmosphere, it is in layers.<BR>
I.e it is heaviest at the surface, i.e has more mass, becuause of the weight<BR>
of atmosphere above, and lightest at the very edge in space, where it has no<BR>
more weight above and is very thin, i.e spread out, i.e low density,<BR>
compared to at the surface.<BR>
BUT it is still pulled by the moons gravity (and earths gravity the opposite<BR>
way) by the same amount as at the surface.<BR>
So the whole vertical profile of the atmosphere gets pulled by the moon by<BR>
the same amount (actualy the top will be pulled slight stronger becuase it<BR>
is closer to the moon, but by a very small difference, so we can ignore<BR>
that)<BR>
SO, how much does the atmosphere get pulled up by the moon as a atmosphere<BR>
tidal bulge?<BR>
I think you would find it will be much more than some think.<BR>
But how do you measure it? (as the barometer does not work, as there is<BR>
still the same mass under that bulge)<BR>
Cheers<BR>
Brian<BR>
----- Original Message -----<BR>
 at : &quot;Ken Ring&quot; &lt;ken at weatherman.co.nz&gt;<BR>
To: &lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>
Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM<BR>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
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 at : "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 12:59:16 +1000
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Awseome, love the look of the shelf cloud forming in Lightning4.

John.
>snip
-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Matthew Piper
Sent: Tuesday, 11 February 2003 11:58 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003


Re: aus-wx: Columbia ShuttleJeff Brislane and myself also encountered the
severe storm which hit Bathurst on Saturday. We were situated at the top of
Mount Panorama and gained what I can only describe as a truly astonishing
view of this storm. Sit back and enjoy some of the following photographic
delights :)

Rain Shaft Video Stills

http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst1.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst2.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst3.jpg

Lightning Video Stills

http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning1.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning2.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning3.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning4.jpg
http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning5.jpg

----- Original Message -----
 at : James Harris
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003


Evening All,

We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area
yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm

Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports
 at  the last two months.

James H


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 at : "Phillip Basil-Jones" <pbones at datafast.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Gustfront/storm photos  10/02/03
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 16:07:27 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've added some images of yesterdays storm!! SDS 
has gone for now :)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm">http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 15:26:37 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moon vs Clim Challenge
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<x-flowed>
Hi Tuan, Ken, and All.

I have an interest in the possibilities of longer-range weather forecasting.

In the past I attempted to evaluate a set of LR forecasts by 
astrometeorologists and lunar LR-forecaster Ken Ring for the Sydney 
Olympics, albeit rather inadequately prepared for and evaluated - it 
was all set up too close to the time to allow adequate preparation by 
forecasters, there was no pre-set forecast format, and evaluation was 
rather difficult given the diverse nature of the forecasting formats 
and lack of clear definitions of terms.

You can see the results at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/Olympics.htm

I also evaluated an exercise comparing Ken Ring's forecasts over a 
certain period with a set of random number generators set up by BoM 
forecaster Harald Richter which was run though the aus-wx list, the 
challenge being set up by Harald to prove random numbers could do 
better than the Moon. Ken's original forecasts were a quick response 
to an email question regarding the bushfire situation around Sydney 
at the time - he had not prepared them with the same degree of 
diligence he would have given to a client or if he had been knowingly 
submitting them for public evaluation. Evaluation methodology was not 
adequately prepared beforehand. As a result there was some very 
different and at times contradictory views expressed regarding 
evaluating the results as they unfolded on the list, and in the final 
analysis there were several evaluation methods used with their 
advantages, biases, and shortcomings spelled out.

You can see the results at 
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/lr-rain-analysis.htm - I 
suggest you both read this page carefully before deciding on 
evaluation methods.

I would be happy to take part in the evaluation of the current Moon 
vs Clim Challenge, as I have an interest in developing better 
evaluation methods for longer range forecasting.

I feel we need to establish forecast validation rules acceptable to 
both parties before the period of the exercise.

For example, if a forecast was made for a day:
Min 15, Max 25, Rain 0
and observations showed
Min 16, Max 24, Rain 0.5 mm
would this be validated as an accurate forecast?

Tuan - do you know how the BoM evaluates the accuracy of it's 
forecasts - i.e. what ranges of error in temp and rainfall are used 
for validation. Also, for the purposes of this exercise, what ranges 
of same would you consider to constitute a validation of the Clim 
method (if these differ  at  the BoM methods).

Ken - I know you allow a +-1 day accuracy for your lunar based 
forecasts as stated clearly on your website 
<http://www.predictweather.com> - as I have asked Tuan, I am also 
asking you to post what ranges of of error you would consider as 
validating your forecast. I also know you see your forecasts as 'rain 
windows' spanning several days, so need to ask whether you find 
Tuan's forecast format acceptable or if you would like to suggest 
changes you feel more suited to your methods.

If you both agree on the forecast format, validation and comparison 
will be easier.

If you both wish to use the same forecasting format with different 
validation techniques, I would suggest that all forecasts be 
evaluated using both methods rather than trying to come to some 
compromise that may not be satisfactory to either party, and that 
others may also suggest validation methods that could differ yet 
again, so all forecasts could also be evaluated using these methods.

In this way the exercise may be useful in determining a more concrete 
set of ground rules for further research into evaluating longer range 
forecasts by whatever methodology.

If you both agree, I will set up a web page to display your forecasts 
and methodologies, the ranges of error and method(s) of evaluation, 
the observations as they become available, and the results.

I would also appreciate it if someone could undertake to collect all 
relevent official observations for the cities involved and post them 
on the list daily - my internet time can be limited by other 
circumstances and I cannot say for sure I will definitely be able to 
get the obs  at  BoM / NZMS websites every day.

If the Ken Ring vs the RNG's exercise was anything to go by, I am 
sure many will be curious to see how this exercise unfolds day by 
day, and to evaluate for themselves how both parties methods are 
doing.

I look forward to your replies.

Regards,
Carl.

>Ken,
>
>I am willing to take up your challenge. Here are some the basic terms.
>
>1.	It is a test to see if forecasting by the moon is significantly better
>than climatology (and vice versa) at lead-time >14 days (and not BoM or me
>vs Moon).
>2.	To reduce possibility of chance, bias, bad luck factor, etc, 
>the location
>for the forecasts will be:
>
>	NZ  – Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch
>	Aus – Melbourne, Canberra & Sydney
>	O/S – Any international capital you care to choose. Can be 
>scrapped if >6
>cities is too much.
>
>3.	You can nominate any arbitrators and/or verification 
>technique you wish.
>4.	Forecast will be in this very basic in this form:
>
>	City		Date		Min		Max 
>	Rain lvl
>Eg	NZAA		01/03/2003	15		22 
>	0 or 1 or 2
>or	Melbourne	Mar 1 2003	18		25		Yes
>
>* For rain level, 0 is no rain, 1 is <10mm and 2 is =>10 mm. If this is too
>complex, we can go with yes or no option which is fine with me.
>
>Starting date will be March 1, 2003 and will go for at least one full month
>(31 days) and hopefully 2 months (if you are up to it Ken).
>
>5.	Total forecasts will be 6 (cities) x 2 (min & max) x 2 or 3 
>(rain lvl) x
>31 (days).
>6.	Total 744 forecasts with ‘Yes/No’ rain, 1116 forecasts with ‘0, 1 or 2’
>rain lvl.
>7.	The actual observation will be  at  the official value as determined by
>the BoM and NZMetService.
>8.	There may not be enough evidence to support either side, and 
>we both will
>have to accept this.
>9.	Judge/s (chosen by you) decision is final.
>
>Given the starting date is soon & you & I need time to prepare, the first
>few days of the forecast period need not be strictly >= 14 days. (but still
>must be at >9 days lead). Will be digging around for clim data especially NZ
>stuff. However, should not matter if I take a while to find it, as it is
>fixed already :)
>
>Ken, I will be out of the office till Wednesday. Looking forward to your
>reply. Hopefully you will be happy with these terms and we can start
>shortly.
>
>Regards,
>tuan
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Gustfront/storm photos  10/02/03
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 16:45:56 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Great photos, which suburb did you take them 
 at ?&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We watched&nbsp;the storm&nbsp; at  Clontarf&nbsp; 
but only managed to get one photo of the main storm, still in the camera.&nbsp; 
However we saw the most interesting cloud grow along the leading edge of the 
storm&nbsp; -&nbsp; don't know the name for it, but it was similar to a roll 
cloud.&nbsp; It grew really quickly stretching out over an estimated 15 
kilometres in only a few minutes.&nbsp;Can anyone tell me what it would have 
been.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We received 9 mm of rain at Mona Vale and the 
plants certainly appreciated its arrival.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=pbones at datafast.net.au href="mailto:pbones at datafast.net.au">Phillip 
  Basil-Jones</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 11, 2003 4:07 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Sydney Gustfront/storm 
  photos 10/02/03</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've added some images of yesterdays storm!! SDS 
  has gone for now :)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm">http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 16:59:50 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Feb 2003 05:59:50.0347 (UTC) FILETIME=[C9F481B0:01C2D192]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Drool! Stunning!&nbsp; I take it you were inside the car, Matt?</P>
<P>That looks like a funnel in 'lightning shot 4'?<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Matthew Piper" <MPIPER at BIGPOND.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 12:57:49 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Re: aus-wx: Columbia ShuttleJeff Brislane and myself also encountered the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;severe storm which hit Bathurst on Saturday. We were situated at the top of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Mount Panorama and gained what I can only describe as a truly astonishing 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;view of this storm. Sit back and enjoy some of the following photographic 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;delights :) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Rain Shaft Video Stills 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst1.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst2.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst3.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Lightning Video Stills 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning1.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning2.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning3.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning4.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning5.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : James Harris 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 PM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Evening All, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst area 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at  the last two months. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;James H 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones.  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMBENAU/2731">Click here for more.</a> </html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-html>
 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 17:42:01 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


My yearly rainfall here in Rutherglen is point 2mm. Please don't tease me
:-)
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Matthew Piper" <mpiper at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 11, 2003 12:57 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003


> Re: aus-wx: Columbia ShuttleJeff Brislane and myself also encountered the
> severe storm which hit Bathurst on Saturday. We were situated at the top
of
> Mount Panorama and gained what I can only describe as a truly astonishing
> view of this storm. Sit back and enjoy some of the following photographic
> delights :)
>
> Rain Shaft Video Stills
>
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst1.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst2.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/bathurst3.jpg
>
> Lightning Video Stills
>
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning1.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning2.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning3.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning4.jpg
> http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/mpiper/Lightning5.jpg
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : James Harris
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent: Sunday, February 09, 2003 10:45 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
>
>
> Evening All,
>
> We'll Matt Smith and myself were lucky enough to be out in the Bathurst
area
> yesterday. A Full report can now be seen at
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/2003/February08.htm
>
> Over the next few weeks SSC should be updated with even more chase reports
>  at  the last two months.
>
> James H
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moon vs Clim Challenge
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 21:44:11 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Carl and Tuan
It seems I did not get Tuan's message as below. Never mind, I see it on
Carl's post. Yes, I welcome the test. It will be an interesting exercise.
The 6 cities mentioned are fine; an international city could be done too but
quite frankly if we don't see something emerge  at  the 6 then I doubt we'd
see it on 7 either. So to save time let's just stick to the 6. Obviously if
the 6 are accurate for either system then the methods will work anywhere.
Max/min/0 or 1 or 2 is okay by me also.
Instead of March I suggest our beginning date to be April 1st and we go to
May 31st. I say this because I will soon be putting up March's forecasts for
both countries on my website.
I also suggest we both forward our data to Carl's private email, if he is
acceptable and if he is indeed setting up a table for it. An independent
arbitrator is better than an open forum. I think if we both get our data to
Carl by the end of February that that gives all of us easy time to get
ready.
Debate will no doubt ensue  at  those who say it did rain in Melbourne/it
didn't where I was. We'll just have to ride that one out. As I do not have
access to the data that Tuan would have, it grants me some leeway.
Also, thanks to Carl for offering his time and input.
and..er..what's the prize?
(just kidding)
cheers
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Carl Smith" <carls at qldnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, February 11, 2003 6:26 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moon vs Clim Challenge


> Hi Tuan, Ken, and All.
>
> I have an interest in the possibilities of longer-range weather
forecasting.
>
> In the past I attempted to evaluate a set of LR forecasts by
> astrometeorologists and lunar LR-forecaster Ken Ring for the Sydney
> Olympics, albeit rather inadequately prepared for and evaluated - it
> was all set up too close to the time to allow adequate preparation by
> forecasters, there was no pre-set forecast format, and evaluation was
> rather difficult given the diverse nature of the forecasting formats
> and lack of clear definitions of terms.
>
> You can see the results at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/Olympics.htm
>
> I also evaluated an exercise comparing Ken Ring's forecasts over a
> certain period with a set of random number generators set up by BoM
> forecaster Harald Richter which was run though the aus-wx list, the
> challenge being set up by Harald to prove random numbers could do
> better than the Moon. Ken's original forecasts were a quick response
> to an email question regarding the bushfire situation around Sydney
> at the time - he had not prepared them with the same degree of
> diligence he would have given to a client or if he had been knowingly
> submitting them for public evaluation. Evaluation methodology was not
> adequately prepared beforehand. As a result there was some very
> different and at times contradictory views expressed regarding
> evaluating the results as they unfolded on the list, and in the final
> analysis there were several evaluation methods used with their
> advantages, biases, and shortcomings spelled out.
>
> You can see the results at
> http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/lr-rain-analysis.htm - I
> suggest you both read this page carefully before deciding on
> evaluation methods.
>
> I would be happy to take part in the evaluation of the current Moon
> vs Clim Challenge, as I have an interest in developing better
> evaluation methods for longer range forecasting.
>
> I feel we need to establish forecast validation rules acceptable to
> both parties before the period of the exercise.
>
> For example, if a forecast was made for a day:
> Min 15, Max 25, Rain 0
> and observations showed
> Min 16, Max 24, Rain 0.5 mm
> would this be validated as an accurate forecast?
>
> Tuan - do you know how the BoM evaluates the accuracy of it's
> forecasts - i.e. what ranges of error in temp and rainfall are used
> for validation. Also, for the purposes of this exercise, what ranges
> of same would you consider to constitute a validation of the Clim
> method (if these differ  at  the BoM methods).
>
> Ken - I know you allow a +-1 day accuracy for your lunar based
> forecasts as stated clearly on your website
> <http://www.predictweather.com> - as I have asked Tuan, I am also
> asking you to post what ranges of of error you would consider as
> validating your forecast. I also know you see your forecasts as 'rain
> windows' spanning several days, so need to ask whether you find
> Tuan's forecast format acceptable or if you would like to suggest
> changes you feel more suited to your methods.
>
> If you both agree on the forecast format, validation and comparison
> will be easier.
>
> If you both wish to use the same forecasting format with different
> validation techniques, I would suggest that all forecasts be
> evaluated using both methods rather than trying to come to some
> compromise that may not be satisfactory to either party, and that
> others may also suggest validation methods that could differ yet
> again, so all forecasts could also be evaluated using these methods.
>
> In this way the exercise may be useful in determining a more concrete
> set of ground rules for further research into evaluating longer range
> forecasts by whatever methodology.
>
> If you both agree, I will set up a web page to display your forecasts
> and methodologies, the ranges of error and method(s) of evaluation,
> the observations as they become available, and the results.
>
> I would also appreciate it if someone could undertake to collect all
> relevent official observations for the cities involved and post them
> on the list daily - my internet time can be limited by other
> circumstances and I cannot say for sure I will definitely be able to
> get the obs  at  BoM / NZMS websites every day.
>
> If the Ken Ring vs the RNG's exercise was anything to go by, I am
> sure many will be curious to see how this exercise unfolds day by
> day, and to evaluate for themselves how both parties methods are
> doing.
>
> I look forward to your replies.
>
> Regards,
> Carl.
>
> >Ken,
> >
> >I am willing to take up your challenge. Here are some the basic terms.
> >
> >1. It is a test to see if forecasting by the moon is significantly better
> >than climatology (and vice versa) at lead-time >14 days (and not BoM or
me
> >vs Moon).
> >2. To reduce possibility of chance, bias, bad luck factor, etc,
> >the location
> >for the forecasts will be:
> >
> > NZ  - Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch
> > Aus - Melbourne, Canberra & Sydney
> > O/S - Any international capital you care to choose. Can be
> >scrapped if >6
> >cities is too much.
> >
> >3. You can nominate any arbitrators and/or verification
> >technique you wish.
> >4. Forecast will be in this very basic in this form:
> >
> > City Date Min Max
> > Rain lvl
> >Eg NZAA 01/03/2003 15 22
> > 0 or 1 or 2
> >or Melbourne Mar 1 2003 18 25 Yes
> >
> >* For rain level, 0 is no rain, 1 is <10mm and 2 is =>10 mm. If this is
too
> >complex, we can go with yes or no option which is fine with me.
> >
> >Starting date will be March 1, 2003 and will go for at least one full
month
> >(31 days) and hopefully 2 months (if you are up to it Ken).
> >
> >5. Total forecasts will be 6 (cities) x 2 (min & max) x 2 or 3
> >(rain lvl) x
> >31 (days).
> >6. Total 744 forecasts with 'Yes/No' rain, 1116 forecasts with '0, 1 or
2'
> >rain lvl.
> >7. The actual observation will be  at  the official value as determined
by
> >the BoM and NZMetService.
> >8. There may not be enough evidence to support either side, and
> >we both will
> >have to accept this.
> >9. Judge/s (chosen by you) decision is final.
> >
> >Given the starting date is soon & you & I need time to prepare, the first
> >few days of the forecast period need not be strictly >= 14 days. (but
still
> >must be at >9 days lead). Will be digging around for clim data especially
NZ
> >stuff. However, should not matter if I take a while to find it, as it is
> >fixed already :)
> >
> >Ken, I will be out of the office till Wednesday. Looking forward to your
> >reply. Hopefully you will be happy with these terms and we can start
> >shortly.
> >
> >Regards,
> >tuan
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 21:33:25 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>yep, no problem neville</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>i see what you mean, i think it would have about the same effect as a strong wind blowing as one drives along in ones car, at worst, noticable but imo not something that would be a root cause of catastrophic failure.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Tuesday, 11 February 2003 8:02:53 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Long range weather</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hi Richard<BR><BR>With respect, this sounds like opinion based on assumption.<BR>I'm no 'air-tide' expert, but here's another assumption: If air is pulled laterally towards the moon at moonrise, then a short time later it is replaced as the moon rises, this could create eddy's. Not a 'brick wall' but a wall of sorts nevertheless.<BR>Just a thought.<BR><BR>Neville <BR><!--BLOCKQUOTE--><BR><B> at : </B>"Richard Modistach" &lt;hambone at dodo.com.au&gt;<BR><B>Reply-To: </B>aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Date: </B>Mon, 10 Feb 2003 07:21:55 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)<BR><B>To: </B>&lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR><B>Subject: </B>Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR><BR><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><BR><!--BLOCKQUOTE-->even if the tidal influence was 1000m, the difference in gas density at that height would be negligble and would be a very gradual change over many 1000s of km, it's not like hitting a brick wall or anything. we're talking tides on a global scale, not waves on a local scale. whilst not denying that atmospheric tides exist their influence on re-entry would be negligble and at worst would simply invole some minor course alterations.<BR><BR>richard<BR><BR><I>-------Original Message-------<BR></I><BR><B><I> at :</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B><I>Date:</I></B> Monday, 10 February 2003 6:06:00 AM<BR><B><I>To:</I></B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B><I>Subject:</I></B> Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR><BR>Hi all again<BR><BR>This whole moon atmosphere tide thing has me thinking<BR>Some say the atmosphereic tide is neglible, at 0.1 %<BR>Now some basic principles of gravity:<BR>The gravitational pull on an object by another object is the same regardless<BR>of that object mass.<BR>So that means a jumbo jet and a feather dropped  at  a great altitude in a<BR>vacuum will fall to earth at the same speed (well actualy the jumbo jet will<BR>hae its own gravitational pull trying to pull the earth to it, but its soo<BR>small we can forget that).<BR>Now, with the atmosphere, it is in lRe aus-wx Long range weather.ems
ayers.<BR>I.e it is heaviest at the surface, i.e has more mass, becuause of the weight<BR>of atmosphere above, and lightest at the very edge in space, where it has no<BR>more weight above and is very thin, i.e spread out, i.e low density,<BR>compared to at the surface.<BR>BUT it is still pulled by the moons gravity (and earths gravity the opposite<BR>way) by the same amount as at the surface.<BR>So the whole vertical profile of the atmosphere gets pulled by the moon by<BR>the same amount (actualy the top will be pulled slight stronger becuase it<BR>is closer to the moon, but by a very small difference, so we can ignore<BR>that)<BR>SO, how much does the atmosphere get pulled up by the moon as a atmosphere<BR>tidal bulge?<BR>I think you would find it will be much more than some think.<BR>But how do you measure it? (as the barometer does not work, as there is<BR>still the same mass under that bulge)<BR>Cheers<BR>Brian<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR> at : "Ken Ring" &lt;ken at weatherman.co.nz&gt;<BR>To: &lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;<BR>Sent: Saturday, February 08, 2003 10:13 PM<BR>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long range weather<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com<BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ &lt;mailto: <BR>. <FONT size=2>____________________________________________________<BR><FONT face="Comic Sans MS">&nbsp;<I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - </FONT></FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman"><B><U>Click Here</U></B></FONT> <BR><!--/BLOCKQUOTE--><BR>
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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Sydney Storm
Date: Tue, 11 Feb 2003 23:17:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We had a lovely 8.5 mm at Mona Vale&nbsp; at  the 
storm but weren't home at the time.&nbsp; We found the best place at Clontarf to 
watch it  at .</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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 at : "Phillip Basil-Jones" <pbones at datafast.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Gustfront/storm photos  10/02/03
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 08:47:55 +1100
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This was  at  Concord (near Homebush,  at queen 
elizibith park and the cricket oval accross the road), which always seems to be 
in the right spot for storms with nice gusters. Most of the time we get the 
northern end of it.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=oyam at ihug.com.au href="mailto:oyam at ihug.com.au">Adam Mayo</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 11, 2003 4:45 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Sydney 
  Gustfront/storm photos 10/02/03</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Great photos, which suburb did you take them 
   at ?&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We watched&nbsp;the storm&nbsp; at  
  Clontarf&nbsp; but only managed to get one photo of the main storm, still in 
  the camera.&nbsp; However we saw the most interesting cloud grow along the 
  leading edge of the storm&nbsp; -&nbsp; don't know the name for it, but it was 
  similar to a roll cloud.&nbsp; It grew really quickly stretching out over an 
  estimated 15 kilometres in only a few minutes.&nbsp;Can anyone tell me what it 
  would have been.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We received 9 mm of rain at Mona Vale and the 
  plants certainly appreciated its arrival.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
    <A title=pbones at datafast.net.au href="mailto:pbones at datafast.net.au">Phillip 
    Basil-Jones</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, February 11, 2003 4:07 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Sydney Gustfront/storm 
    photos 10/02/03</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've added some images of yesterdays storm!! 
    SDS has gone for now :)</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm">http://members.datafast.net.au/dft0803/wxau/10022003.htm</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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 at : "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx:  Perth
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 01:39:29 -0000
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Blair wrote:

> For future reference (by everyone), daily climate data
> files for the last 2 weeks are available via the SILO web site at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/
>
Also, daily temperature and rainfall extremes for the past few years are
available at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2003/news2003headlines.cfm

Laurier


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 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 18:13:07 +1100
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Hi all,

Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across the
face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different e-mail
addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail' wx
(clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks  at 
1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill out
to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth long-term.

I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out to 2
weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence before
accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are now
possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary results
are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are published
& verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days
out with some skill (beating clim consistently).

John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.

Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as well)

Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle being
struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation, as
possible cause of initial damage to left wing

Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
(gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out. Challenge
will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and reanalysis.


Cheeers,
tuan

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 18:17:52 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
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<DIV>hi paul,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>your prayers may be answered.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html">http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
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<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Wednesday, 12 February 2003 2:03:54 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie Weather</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hey All,<BR><BR>Just a quick email to let everyone know that we are needing rain quite badly<BR>out here (Like most of Australia). The Wimmera Mallee storages are currently<BR>showing 7% of capacity with 4 dams dry.. They have estimated 5% by April,<BR>but if we don't get anything soon, we'll most likely be going up to Stage 4<BR>restrictions, and a couple of towns around here will go onto Stage 5.<BR><BR>A list of dams and levels can be found at<BR><A href="http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp">http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp</A><BR><BR>Hopefully this nude female rain dance up at Ouyen later this month can open<BR>up the heavens (No...males can't attend...LOL)<BR><BR>PaulY (Praying for rain)<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 18:17:52 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>hi paul,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>your prayers may be answered.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html">http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Wednesday, 12 February 2003 2:03:54 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie Weather</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hey All,<BR><BR>Just a quick email to let everyone know that we are needing rain quite badly<BR>out here (Like most of Australia). The Wimmera Mallee storages are currently<BR>showing 7% of capacity with 4 dams dry.. They have estimated 5% by April,<BR>but if we don't get anything soon, we'll most likely be going up to Stage 4<BR>restrictions, and a couple of towns around here will go onto Stage 5.<BR><BR>A list of dams and levels can be found at<BR><A href="http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp">http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp</A><BR><BR>Hopefully this nude female rain dance up at Ouyen later this month can open<BR>up the heavens (No...males can't attend...LOL)<BR><BR>PaulY (Praying for rain)<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your<BR>message.<BR><A href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. </TD></TR>
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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 19:01:39 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hang on! Didn't they do a nudey somewhere the other day?
Oh sorry that was against war in Iraq. Maybe several inches were achieved
somewhere. I'm out....
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 12, 2003 5:23 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!


> Hey All,
>
> Just a quick email to let everyone know that we are needing rain quite
badly
> out here (Like most of Australia). The Wimmera Mallee storages are
currently
> showing 7% of capacity with 4 dams dry.. They have estimated 5% by April,
> but if we don't get anything soon, we'll most likely be going up to Stage
4
> restrictions, and a couple of towns around here will go onto Stage 5.
>
> A list of dams and levels can be found at
> http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp
>
> Hopefully this nude female rain dance up at Ouyen later this month can
open
> up the heavens (No...males can't attend...LOL)
>
> PaulY (Praying for rain)
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 at : "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 19:30:43 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Well I hope the soil moisture forecast means I'm going to get 
a soggy back yard.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This 9 day prognostic , if reliable, may explain the 
expectation of heavy rain over the northeast half of NSW</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel_aus.html">http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel_aus.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>It's the only model I know of that goes out that 
far.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Haven't seen anything like that for February since 1992 when 
we had 10 inches in 2 days.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>February 1992 was a month with strongly negative SOI (minus 
10.2) so maybe there's hope.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 12, 2003 6:47 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Needing 
  rain...badly!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <TABLE id=INCREDIMAINTABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" 
    border=0><TBODY>
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        <DIV>hi paul,</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>your prayers may be answered.</DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV><A 
        href="http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html">http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html</A></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV>richard</DIV>
        <DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original 
        Message-------</I></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
        <DIV id=receivestrings>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Wednesday, 12 
        February 2003 2:03:54 PM</DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A 
        href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie Weather</A></DIV>
        <DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> aus-wx: 
        Needing rain...badly!</DIV></DIV>
        <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>Hey All,<BR><BR>Just a quick email to let everyone know 
        that we are needing rain quite badly<BR>out here (Like most of 
        Australia). The Wimmera Mallee storages are currently<BR>showing 7% of 
        capacity with 4 dams dry.. They have estimated 5% by April,<BR>but if we 
        don't get anything soon, we'll most likely be going up to Stage 
        4<BR>restrictions, and a couple of towns around here will go onto Stage 
        5.<BR><BR>A list of dams and levels can be found at<BR><A 
        href="http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp">http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp</A><BR><BR>Hopefully 
        this nude female rain dance up at Ouyen later this month can open<BR>up 
        the heavens (No...males can't attend...LOL)<BR><BR>PaulY (Praying for 
        rain)<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To 
        unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail <A 
        href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>with 
        "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
        your<BR>message.<BR><A 
        href="mailto: -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</A><BR><BR>. 
      </TD></TR>
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  id=IncrediStamp><SPAN dir=ltr><FONT face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" 
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  hspace=0 src="cid:000701c2d271$0898e350$1876fea9 at desktop" align=baseline 
  border=0></A>&nbsp; <I>IncrediMail</I> - <B>Email has finally evolved</B> - 
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Embedded Content: IMSTP107.gif: 00000001,0986484b,00000000,00000000
 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Central Tablelands Chase - 8 Feb 2003
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 20:36:12 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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A few shots  at  an amazing chase on Saturday!!!!!  12 storms, 2
dustdevils, torrential rain, blowing dust all between 2pm & 7.30pm!!

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/08_02_03.htm

Enjoy!!!!  I'd give up a supercell of 3 for a repeat of the Saturday
chase....

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------

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 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 22:54:48 +1300
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Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance.
Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I will
believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
Just a bit confused
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


>
> Hi all,
>
> Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across the
> face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different e-mail
> addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail' wx
> (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks  at 
> 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill out
> to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth long-term.
>
> I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out to 2
> weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence before
> accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are now
> possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
results
> are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
published
> & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days
> out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
>
> John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
>
> Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
well)
>
> Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle being
> struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation, as
> possible cause of initial damage to left wing
>
> Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out. Challenge
> will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and reanalysis.
>
>
> Cheeers,
> tuan
>
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 22:57:34 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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hey everyone,
heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern
Cnaberra.
first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is
of a thundery strom that
missed tuugeranong but went on  to hit tharwa. south of canberra.
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg



Steve Baynham
icq : 26863574

Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

Homepage
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.02.2022
Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 22:23:23 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
 at : Dale Small <x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new
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<x-html>
<HTML>
<HEAD>
<TITLE>Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics</TITLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY>
LOL<BR>
<BR>
Awesome pix Steve.. have another drink on me - ehehehehe<BR>
*offtopic comment for those who werent present at the time*<BR>
<BR>
:)<BR>
*Dale*<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
on 12/02/2003 21:57, Steve Baynham at bayns at broad.net.au wrote:<BR>
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>hey everyone,<BR>
heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern<BR>
Cnaberra.<BR>
first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is<BR>
of a thundery strom that<BR>
missed tuugeranong but went on &nbsp;to hit tharwa. south of canberra.<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Steve Baynham<BR>
icq : 26863574<BR>
<BR>
Brisbane Storm Chasers<BR>
http://www.bsch.au.com<BR>
<BR>
Australian Severe Weather Association<BR>
http://www.severeweather.asn.au<BR>
<BR>
Homepage<BR>
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------<BR>
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 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 01:17:50 +1100
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Saw the later storm develop about 5kms to my SW 
whilst on a break at work, sat outside for 20 minutes, i so nearly didn't go 
back, lol. *CREAMAGE*</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au 
  href="mailto:x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au">Dale Small</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, February 12, 2003 11:23 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm 
  pics</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>LOL<BR><BR>Awesome pix Steve.. have another drink on me - 
  ehehehehe<BR>*offtopic comment for those who werent present at the 
  time*<BR><BR>:)<BR>*Dale*<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>on 12/02/2003 21:57, 
  Steve Baynham at <A href="mailto:bayns at broad.net.au">bayns at broad.net.au</A> 
  wrote:<BR><BR>
  <BLOCKQUOTE>hey everyone,<BR>heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon 
     at  Chisholm, Southern<BR>Cnaberra.<BR>first is of a storm that passed over 
    bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is<BR>of a thundery strom that<BR>missed 
    tuugeranong but went on &nbsp;to hit tharwa. south of 
    canberra.<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg<BR><BR><BR><BR>Steve 
    Baynham<BR>icq : 26863574<BR><BR>Brisbane Storm 
    Chasers<BR>http://www.bsch.au.com<BR><BR>Australian Severe Weather 
    Association<BR>http://www.severeweather.asn.au<BR><BR>Homepage<BR>http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany<BR><BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To 
    unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail 
    to:majordomo at world.std.com<BR>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather 
    your_email_address" in the body of 
    your<BR>message.<BR>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------<BR><BR></BLOCKQUOTE><BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [144.138.240.109]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 01:33:08 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Feb 2003 14:33:08.0491 (UTC) FILETIME=[A97E15B0:01C2D2A3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Well done Steve,
I also watched the Tuggeranong storm last night  at  my front verandah at 
Gilmore.It seemed to peak south of Banks-Condor as it moved southeast.The 
afternoon storm was quite unusual since it was very isolated and quite 
intense,seemed to reach a great height too.

Gavin SSWW Gilmore A.C.T.





> at : "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
>Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 22:57:34 +1100
>
>hey everyone,
>heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern
>Cnaberra.
>first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is
>of a thundery strom that
>missed tuugeranong but went on  to hit tharwa. south of canberra.
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg
>http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg
>
>
>
>Steve Baynham
>icq : 26863574
>
>Brisbane Storm Chasers
>http://www.bsch.au.com
>
>Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>Homepage
>http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.138.240.109]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 01:37:29 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Feb 2003 14:37:30.0130 (UTC) FILETIME=[45710720:01C2D2A4]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Richard,Agreed,Hope you are right.The pressure and wind patterns do seem to 
be changing and SOI is in + territory again.We may go to stage 3 or 4 
inCanberra soon
Gavin SSWW Canberra






> at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
>Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 18:17:52 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
>
>hi paul,
>
>your prayers may be answered.
>
>http://grads.iges.org/pix/prec7.html
>
>richard
>
>
>-------Original Message-------
>
> at : aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Wednesday, 12 February 2003 2:03:54 PM
>To: Aussie Weather
>Subject: aus-wx: Needing rain...badly!
>
>Hey All,
>
>Just a quick email to let everyone know that we are needing rain quite 
>badly
>out here (Like most of Australia). The Wimmera Mallee storages are 
>currently
>showing 7% of capacity with 4 dams dry.. They have estimated 5% by April,
>but if we don't get anything soon, we'll most likely be going up to Stage 4
>restrictions, and a couple of towns around here will go onto Stage 5.
>
>A list of dams and levels can be found at
>http://www.wmwater.org.au/updates/storage.asp
>
>Hopefully this nude female rain dance up at Ouyen later this month can open
>up the heavens (No...males can't attend...LOL)
>
>PaulY (Praying for rain)
>
>
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>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>.


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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 07:17:44 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I did definitely the most lengthy metropolitan Sydney chase in an afternoon 
ever. Who would have thought that the 12th February 2003 would fire so 
well. After the early action, I arrived home briefly, got some more video 
of a lowering and interesting structure there of the storm I had been 
chasing. Then I picked up Geoff and went south. The first LP supercell had 
pulsed and matured and then weakened by the time we got nearer it but the 
2nd one pulsed and matured when we were very close.

These are  at  the 2nd LP supercell observed 12th February 2003:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/temp/20030212lp/clip0020.jpg

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/temp/20030212lp/clip0031.jpg

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/temp/20030212lp/clip0050.jpg

Needless to say, Geoff Thurtell and I were over the moon when this one came 
into view. A whole report of all the action during the afternoon will be 
made available later. The LP supercell by the way on animation was spinning 
like a top - clear rotation.

Jimmy Deguara


-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

 at 
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
 at : "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 08:34:23 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Steve - great pics...

I also managed to get some pics of both storms but  at  an angle to the
north of where you were.
It was a great set of views.

Bungendore storm

http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Bung/

Tharwa Storm

http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Tugg/

Patrick

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 10:57 PM
Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics


> hey everyone,
> heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern
> Cnaberra.
> first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is
> of a thundery strom that
> missed tuugeranong but went on  to hit tharwa. south of canberra.
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg
>
>
>
> Steve Baynham
> icq : 26863574
>
> Brisbane Storm Chasers
> http://www.bsch.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
> Homepage
> http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 09:21:35 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Jimmy and Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We know how excited you were to see a storm like 
that and&nbsp;IN Sydney!&nbsp; I will have to show a lot of our friends around 
here, so that they will realise that at least two of them have occurred in the 
Metro Area.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It appears in the photos to be as large as the one 
that we were lucky enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a 
lucky month.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For all of you who never found my photos they are 
on the&nbsp;Australian Severe Weather</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;photo 
pages under Wall Clouds.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy Mayo</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 09:35:04 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Ken,

>Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
>1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance.
>Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
>2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I will
>believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
>Just a bit confused
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com


My fault at not explaining things clearer.

Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different animals.
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at  BoM web
site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the different
time scale and spatial area we are talking about.

eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16 Max 29
    Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.

I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate time
scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match both
types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end of the
time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the "secret
herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.

Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather than
taking anyone's claim as fact.
Just my personal opinion.

tuan, the skeptic



----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


>
> Hi all,
>
> Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across the
> face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different e-mail
> addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail' wx
> (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks  at 
> 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill out
> to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth long-term.
>
> I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out to 2
> weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence before
> accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are now
> possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
results
> are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
published
> & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days
> out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
>
> John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
>
> Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
well)
>
> Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle being
> struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation, as
> possible cause of initial damage to left wing
>
> Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out. Challenge
> will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and reanalysis.
>
>
> Cheeers,
> tuan
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
 at : "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 09:54:20 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Feb 2003 22:54:20.0357 (UTC) FILETIME=[ADB8AF50:01C2D2E9]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Nice shots, Steve, Patrick</P>
<P>I chased the Bungendore one while doing the dishes, out my east looking kitchen window.&nbsp; Seemed to be a corkscrew component to the updraft at some stages.</P>
<P>Michael<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Patrick Tobin" <PATRICKTOBIN at OZEMAIL.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 08:34:23 +1100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Hi Steve - great pics... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I also managed to get some pics of both storms but  at  an angle to the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;north of where you were. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;It was a great set of views. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Bungendore storm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Bung/ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Tharwa Storm 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Tugg/ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Patrick 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; at : "Steve Baynham" <BAYNS at BROAD.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "weather" <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 10:57 PM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; hey everyone, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Cnaberra. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest is 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; of a thundery strom that 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; missed tuugeranong but went on to hit tharwa. south of canberra. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Steve Baynham 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; icq : 26863574 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Brisbane Storm Chasers 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.bsch.au.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Australian Severe Weather Association 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.severeweather.asn.au 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Homepage 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones.  <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMOENAU/2737">Click here for more.</a> </html>
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</x-html>
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 11:58:04 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
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All scientits are sceptics until proven otherwise.
Thats what modern day science is all about
Thats what having a science degree does: you learn how to wade through all
the evidence to come up with your own conclusions, bassed on others
conclusions as well.....and you go  at  there.
Often means the wheels turn slowly, but it means things get done right.
To be told you are a ostrich with your head in the sand by Ken Ring does is
not a good idea, Ken!
So, let the games begin! (getting some hard evidence)
Ps, ken's Fen forecast for NZ is going great....first month in a long time
he has been OK...maybe its because the moon is better at influcening the
weather when the weather is more settled in the first place and not going
about doing its own thing and with chaos being the ruler more than at this
time of the year ! ?

Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:35 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


>
> Ken,
>
> >Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
> >1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance.
> >Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
> >2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I
will
> >believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
> >Just a bit confused
> >Ken
> >www.predictweather.com
>
>
> My fault at not explaining things clearer.
>
> Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different animals.
> "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at  BoM
web
> site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the different
> time scale and spatial area we are talking about.
>
> eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16 Max
29
>     Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.
>
> I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate time
> scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match both
> types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end of
the
> time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the "secret
> herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.
>
> Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather than
> taking anyone's claim as fact.
> Just my personal opinion.
>
> tuan, the skeptic
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
> Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
>
>
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across
the
> > face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different
e-mail
> > addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail' wx
> > (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> > occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks
 at 
> > 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill
out
> > to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth long-term.
> >
> > I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out to
2
> > weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence before
> > accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are now
> > possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
> results
> > are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
> published
> > & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14
days
> > out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
> >
> > John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
> >
> > Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
> well)
> >
> > Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle
being
> > struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation, as
> > possible cause of initial damage to left wing
> >
> > Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> > (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out. Challenge
> > will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> > Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and reanalysis.
> >
> >
> > Cheeers,
> > tuan
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 10:30:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Ken,

>Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
>temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall
>So how do you propose to do daily forecasts at least two months ahead,
>according to our up and coming challenge? By just quoting % probabilities?
>I'm still a tad confused.
>Ken

That example was just made up by me for basic illustration purposes.

The challenge is basically to do wx style forecasts at lead time >14 days to
see if any method can beat the wx style forecasts achieved by a 'no
skill/base level' method using clim stats.

Best I think to email me directly so people don't get anoyed with their
email boxes getting clogged.
Just a touch busy at the moment with hard deadlines coming up. Will email
you after 6pm when get some free time.

tuan



>snip

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 13:31:50 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall
So how do you propose to do daily forecasts at least two months ahead,
according to our up and coming challenge? By just quoting % probabilities?
I'm still a tad confused.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:35 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


> Ken,
>
> >Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
> >1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance.
> >Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
> >2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I
will
> >believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
> >Just a bit confused
> >Ken
> >www.predictweather.com
>
>
> My fault at not explaining things clearer.
>
> Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different animals.
> "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at  BoM
web
> site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the different
> time scale and spatial area we are talking about.
>
> eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16 Max
29
>     Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.
>
> I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate time
> scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match both
> types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end of
the
> time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the "secret
> herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.
>
> Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather than
> taking anyone's claim as fact.
> Just my personal opinion.
>
> tuan, the skeptic
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
> Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
>
>
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across
the
> > face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different
e-mail
> > addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail' wx
> > (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> > occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks
 at 
> > 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill
out
> > to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth long-term.
> >
> > I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out to
2
> > weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence before
> > accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are now
> > possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
> results
> > are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
> published
> > & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14
days
> > out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
> >
> > John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
> >
> > Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
> well)
> >
> > Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle
being
> > struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation, as
> > possible cause of initial damage to left wing
> >
> > Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> > (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out. Challenge
> > will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> > Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and reanalysis.
> >
> >
> > Cheeers,
> > tuan
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 14:34:03 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


> To be told you are a ostrich with your head in the sand by Ken Ring does
is
> not a good idea, Ken!
If the cap fits, wear it. Also not a good idea to bring personal vendettas
 at  one forum into another. I suggest you don't pursue this, Brian.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:58 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


> All scientits are sceptics until proven otherwise.
> Thats what modern day science is all about
> Thats what having a science degree does: you learn how to wade through all
> the evidence to come up with your own conclusions, bassed on others
> conclusions as well.....and you go  at  there.
> Often means the wheels turn slowly, but it means things get done right.
> To be told you are a ostrich with your head in the sand by Ken Ring does
is
> not a good idea, Ken!
> So, let the games begin! (getting some hard evidence)
> Ps, ken's Fen forecast for NZ is going great....first month in a long time
> he has been OK...maybe its because the moon is better at influcening the
> weather when the weather is more settled in the first place and not going
> about doing its own thing and with chaos being the ruler more than at this
> time of the year ! ?
>
> Cheers
> Brian
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:35 AM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
>
>
> >
> > Ken,
> >
> > >Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
> > >1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in
advance.
> > >Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
> > >2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I
> will
> > >believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
> > >Just a bit confused
> > >Ken
> > >www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > My fault at not explaining things clearer.
> >
> > Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different animals.
> > "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at  BoM
> web
> > site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the
different
> > time scale and spatial area we are talking about.
> >
> > eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16 Max
> 29
> >     Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> > temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.
> >
> > I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate
time
> > scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match both
> > types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end of
> the
> > time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the "secret
> > herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.
> >
> > Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather
than
> > taking anyone's claim as fact.
> > Just my personal opinion.
> >
> > tuan, the skeptic
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across
> the
> > > face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different
> e-mail
> > > addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail'
wx
> > > (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> > > occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks
>  at 
> > > 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill
> out
> > > to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth
long-term.
> > >
> > > I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out
to
> 2
> > > weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence
before
> > > accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are
now
> > > possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
> > results
> > > are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
> > published
> > > & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14
> days
> > > out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
> > >
> > > John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
> > >
> > > Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
> > well)
> > >
> > > Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle
> being
> > > struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation,
as
> > > possible cause of initial damage to left wing
> > >
> > > Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> > > (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out.
Challenge
> > > will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> > > Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and
reanalysis.
> > >
> > >
> > > Cheeers,
> > > tuan
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 15:10:14 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Huh?
And my "I belive in the moon" T shirts were just about to be printed off!
Cheers
Brian
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 1:31 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


> >Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall
> So how do you propose to do daily forecasts at least two months ahead,
> according to our up and coming challenge? By just quoting % probabilities?
> I'm still a tad confused.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:35 AM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
>
>
> > Ken,
> >
> > >Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
> > >1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in
advance.
> > >Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
> > >2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before I
> will
> > >believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
> > >Just a bit confused
> > >Ken
> > >www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > My fault at not explaining things clearer.
> >
> > Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different animals.
> > "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at  BoM
> web
> > site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the
different
> > time scale and spatial area we are talking about.
> >
> > eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16 Max
> 29
> >     Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> > temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.
> >
> > I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate
time
> > scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match both
> > types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end of
> the
> > time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the "secret
> > herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.
> >
> > Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather
than
> > taking anyone's claim as fact.
> > Just my personal opinion.
> >
> > tuan, the skeptic
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap across
> the
> > > face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different
> e-mail
> > > addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail'
wx
> > > (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their special
> > > occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks
>  at 
> > > 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of skill
> out
> > > to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth
long-term.
> > >
> > > I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out
to
> 2
> > > weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence
before
> > > accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are
now
> > > possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
> > results
> > > are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
> > published
> > > & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14
> days
> > > out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
> > >
> > > John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
> > >
> > > Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze as
> > well)
> > >
> > > Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle
> being
> > > struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation,
as
> > > possible cause of initial damage to left wing
> > >
> > > Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> > > (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out.
Challenge
> > > will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's boxes.
> > > Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and
reanalysis.
> > >
> > >
> > > Cheeers,
> > > tuan
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 18:13:57 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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NOW he tells me!!
I take it all back..and I'll order a container-load.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Brian Hamilton" <windy at ps.gen.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 3:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends


> Huh?
> And my "I belive in the moon" T shirts were just about to be printed off!
> Cheers
> Brian
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 1:31 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
>
>
> > >Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> > temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall
> > So how do you propose to do daily forecasts at least two months ahead,
> > according to our up and coming challenge? By just quoting %
probabilities?
> > I'm still a tad confused.
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 11:35 AM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
> >
> >
> > > Ken,
> > >
> > > >Tuan, don't these two statements conflict?
> > > >1. "I give 'detail' wx(clim) forecast when people ask, months in
> advance.
> > > >Recent research showed evidence of skill out to at least 9 months."
> > > >2. "(I)reserve all judgement until all results are published..before
I
> > will
> > > >believe that it is possible to forecast 14 days out with some skill".
> > > >Just a bit confused
> > > >Ken
> > > >www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > My fault at not explaining things clearer.
> > >
> > > Wx & climate forecasting/outlooks are too completely different
animals.
> > > "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" (borrowed  at 
BoM
> > web
> > > site). Climate forecasts differ greatly  at  wx ones due to the
> different
> > > time scale and spatial area we are talking about.
> > >
> > > eg. Wx forecast: Melbourne (14/02/2003) - Fine. Mainly sunny. Min 16
Max
> > 29
> > >     Climate forecast: SE Aus (Autumn 2003) - 60% prob above average
> > > temperature. 40% prob above median rainfall.
> > >
> > > I get cautious when people claim they can do wx forecasts at climate
> time
> > > scale and be 'extremely' accurate. Or when they try to mix & match
both
> > > types together and claim they can forecast extremely well at BOTH end
of
> > the
> > > time scale. And also without a consistent methodology or use the
"secret
> > > herbs & spices, so can't tell" excuse.
> > >
> > > Prefer seeing some hard data and coming to my own conclusions rather
> than
> > > taking anyone's claim as fact.
> > > Just my personal opinion.
> > >
> > > tuan, the skeptic
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > >  at : "Tuan Phan" <t.phan at bom.gov.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 8:13 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx:Tidying loose ends
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi all,
> > > >
> > > > Suze - I am so sorry for mistaking you for... *wack* (gets slap
across
> > the
> > > > face). I was in such a rush that I didn't even notice the different
> > e-mail
> > > > addresses :o . Most of my work are only 18-36hr out. I give 'detail'
> wx
> > > > (clim) forecast when people ask, months in advance, for their
special
> > > > occasions like weddings. The Climate section of the BoM has outlooks
> >  at 
> > > > 1month-12+ months in advance. Recent research showed evidence of
skill
> > out
> > > > to at least 9 months. I consider 7-14 days mid-term & >1 mth
> long-term.
> > > >
> > > > I am always on the lookout for methods that may extent forecasts out
> to
> > 2
> > > > weeks (the theoretical limit). However, I always demand evidence
> before
> > > > accepting anything as 'fact'. Detailed forecasts out to 15 days are
> now
> > > > possible using the relatively new 'ensemble' technique. Preliminary
> > > results
> > > > are quite exciting but reserve all judgement until all results are
> > > published
> > > > & verified, before I will believe that it is possible to forecast 14
> > days
> > > > out with some skill (beating clim consistently).
> > > >
> > > > John W - Thanks for correcting my mistake.
> > > >
> > > > Sue - Best wishes for the wedding. (Apologies for mistake with Suze
as
> > > well)
> > > >
> > > > Columbia - a colleague mentioned that the possibility of the shuttle
> > being
> > > > struck by Stratospheric lightning could also be under investigation,
> as
> > > > possible cause of initial damage to left wing
> > > >
> > > > Clim vs Moon challenge - Carl Smith has volunteered to be the umpire
> > > > (gratefully accepted). Final details of format to be work out.
> Challenge
> > > > will be carried off-list to reduce email clutter in everyone's
boxes.
> > > > Results, when ready, will be made available for comments and
> reanalysis.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Cheeers,
> > > > tuan
> > > >
> > > >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
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> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
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>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 18:35:26 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Judy,

Yes good observation. There is a marked similarity between the structure 
achieved on the 8th February 2002 (just over a year to the time of 
occurrence of this storm) and this storm. The "Cow Catcher" structure was 
the give-away however the storm on the northern Beaches seems to have 
had  more precipitation attached to it. I also recall that temperatures 
aloft were cooling rather rapidly. There was not much of a cap with storms 
developing early afternoon. This storm was close to the coast feeding on 
available moisture.

This event of yesterday seemed to have more explosive updraughts breaking 
through a resistant cap. The updraughts were vertical and the precipitation 
was reported to have been mostly just hail and some quite severe hail 
reports in that. I will wait until verification of these reports to come 
through before commenting on hail size. As I said these storms developed 
during the late afternoon and due to impressive heating breaking the cap. 
One other thing is that this storm developed inland and required higher dew 
points to lower the LCL.

By the way, Judy is referring to the following link:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall03.htm

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall04.htm

Supercells are almost always spectacular.

Jimmy Deguara



At 09:21 AM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Jimmy and Everyone,
>
>We know how excited you were to see a storm like that and IN Sydney!  I 
>will have to show a lot of our friends around here, so that they will 
>realise that at least two of them have occurred in the Metro Area.
>
>It appears in the photos to be as large as the one that we were lucky 
>enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a lucky month.
>
>For all of you who never found my photos they are on the Australian Severe 
>Weather photo pages under Wall Clouds.
>
>Judy Mayo

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dust devils
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:28:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Bussy would probably call this a small devil this afternoon - but it's
not!!

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/summer02oth.htm

Cheers,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dust devils
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:28:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Bussy would probably call this a small devil this afternoon - but it's
not!!

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/summer02oth.htm

Cheers,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

***The journey is the reward***
--------------------------------

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 at : "dann weatherhead" <dann at sydneystormchasers.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:36:19 +1100
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I have been hiking in the Moreton National Park for the last 4 days. I
suspected that something would fire in that time.
Monday was one of the most explosive mornings i have ever seen.  Driving
down to Bundanoon small CJ's built instantly into massive cells, with
extremely mature bases and structure  at  11am. The lower level shear was
superb,  with all development having great lean. As the afternoon
progressed, storms fired everywhere around us as we hiked into Kangaroo
Valley.  at  noon til around 5pm, there was constant thunder, and some of
the closest and most frequent flangs i have every observed. Pile that all up
with 2cm hail, and 40mm+ and it was a good start.

Yesterday I could see the storms to the north breaking the cap later in the
afternoon, and massive updrafts curling up into the late afternoon sun.

The structure in these storms are awesome Jimmy!
Well done indeed.

Where were these storms?

dann

-----Original Message-----
 at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 6:35 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell


Hi Judy,

Yes good observation. There is a marked similarity between the structure
achieved on the 8th February 2002 (just over a year to the time of
occurrence of this storm) and this storm. The "Cow Catcher" structure was
the give-away however the storm on the northern Beaches seems to have
had  more precipitation attached to it. I also recall that temperatures
aloft were cooling rather rapidly. There was not much of a cap with storms
developing early afternoon. This storm was close to the coast feeding on
available moisture.

This event of yesterday seemed to have more explosive updraughts breaking
through a resistant cap. The updraughts were vertical and the precipitation
was reported to have been mostly just hail and some quite severe hail
reports in that. I will wait until verification of these reports to come
through before commenting on hail size. As I said these storms developed
during the late afternoon and due to impressive heating breaking the cap.
One other thing is that this storm developed inland and required higher dew
points to lower the LCL.

By the way, Judy is referring to the following link:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall03.htm

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall04.htm

Supercells are almost always spectacular.

Jimmy Deguara



At 09:21 AM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi Jimmy and Everyone,
>
>We know how excited you were to see a storm like that and IN Sydney!  I
>will have to show a lot of our friends around here, so that they will
>realise that at least two of them have occurred in the Metro Area.
>
>It appears in the photos to be as large as the one that we were lucky
>enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a lucky month.
>
>For all of you who never found my photos they are on the Australian Severe
>Weather photo pages under Wall Clouds.
>
>Judy Mayo

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Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 22:03:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Dan,

Good to see some action go up around the place.

Sorry I forgot to mention and it has caused a little confusion the location 
of the storm (at 1:00am thinking was a low priority). The LP supercell was 
south of Camden. The first LP supercell was further to the east somewhere - 
NW of Wollongong.

I hope this helps.

Jimmy Deguara

At 09:36 PM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
>I have been hiking in the Moreton National Park for the last 4 days. I
>suspected that something would fire in that time.
>Monday was one of the most explosive mornings i have ever seen.  Driving
>down to Bundanoon small CJ's built instantly into massive cells, with
>extremely mature bases and structure  at  11am. The lower level shear was
>superb,  with all development having great lean. As the afternoon
>progressed, storms fired everywhere around us as we hiked into Kangaroo
>Valley.  at  noon til around 5pm, there was constant thunder, and some of
>the closest and most frequent flangs i have every observed. Pile that all up
>with 2cm hail, and 40mm+ and it was a good start.
>
>Yesterday I could see the storms to the north breaking the cap later in the
>afternoon, and massive updrafts curling up into the late afternoon sun.
>
>The structure in these storms are awesome Jimmy!
>Well done indeed.
>
>Where were these storms?
>
>dann
>
>-----Original Message-----
> at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
>Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 6:35 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
>
>
>Hi Judy,
>
>Yes good observation. There is a marked similarity between the structure
>achieved on the 8th February 2002 (just over a year to the time of
>occurrence of this storm) and this storm. The "Cow Catcher" structure was
>the give-away however the storm on the northern Beaches seems to have
>had  more precipitation attached to it. I also recall that temperatures
>aloft were cooling rather rapidly. There was not much of a cap with storms
>developing early afternoon. This storm was close to the coast feeding on
>available moisture.
>
>This event of yesterday seemed to have more explosive updraughts breaking
>through a resistant cap. The updraughts were vertical and the precipitation
>was reported to have been mostly just hail and some quite severe hail
>reports in that. I will wait until verification of these reports to come
>through before commenting on hail size. As I said these storms developed
>during the late afternoon and due to impressive heating breaking the cap.
>One other thing is that this storm developed inland and required higher dew
>points to lower the LCL.
>
>By the way, Judy is referring to the following link:
>
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall03.htm
>
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall04.htm
>
>Supercells are almost always spectacular.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>
>
>At 09:21 AM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> >Hi Jimmy and Everyone,
> >
> >We know how excited you were to see a storm like that and IN Sydney!  I
> >will have to show a lot of our friends around here, so that they will
> >realise that at least two of them have occurred in the Metro Area.
> >
> >It appears in the photos to be as large as the one that we were lucky
> >enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a lucky month.
> >
> >For all of you who never found my photos they are on the Australian Severe
> >Weather photo pages under Wall Clouds.
> >
> >Judy Mayo
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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</x-flowed>
 at : "Phillip Basil-Jones" <pbones at datafast.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 22:08:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Very nice photos there Jimmy, it seems around that area is a bit of a
hotspot for LP supercells.

----- Original Message -----
 at : "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 10:03 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: LP Supercell


> Hi Dan,
>
> Good to see some action go up around the place.
>
> Sorry I forgot to mention and it has caused a little confusion the
location
> of the storm (at 1:00am thinking was a low priority). The LP supercell was
> south of Camden. The first LP supercell was further to the east
somewhere -
> NW of Wollongong.
>
> I hope this helps.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:36 PM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> >I have been hiking in the Moreton National Park for the last 4 days. I
> >suspected that something would fire in that time.
> >Monday was one of the most explosive mornings i have ever seen.  Driving
> >down to Bundanoon small CJ's built instantly into massive cells, with
> >extremely mature bases and structure  at  11am. The lower level shear was
> >superb,  with all development having great lean. As the afternoon
> >progressed, storms fired everywhere around us as we hiked into Kangaroo
> >Valley.  at  noon til around 5pm, there was constant thunder, and some of
> >the closest and most frequent flangs i have every observed. Pile that all
up
> >with 2cm hail, and 40mm+ and it was a good start.
> >
> >Yesterday I could see the storms to the north breaking the cap later in
the
> >afternoon, and massive updrafts curling up into the late afternoon sun.
> >
> >The structure in these storms are awesome Jimmy!
> >Well done indeed.
> >
> >Where were these storms?
> >
> >dann
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> > at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
> >Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 6:35 PM
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
> >
> >
> >Hi Judy,
> >
> >Yes good observation. There is a marked similarity between the structure
> >achieved on the 8th February 2002 (just over a year to the time of
> >occurrence of this storm) and this storm. The "Cow Catcher" structure was
> >the give-away however the storm on the northern Beaches seems to have
> >had  more precipitation attached to it. I also recall that temperatures
> >aloft were cooling rather rapidly. There was not much of a cap with
storms
> >developing early afternoon. This storm was close to the coast feeding on
> >available moisture.
> >
> >This event of yesterday seemed to have more explosive updraughts breaking
> >through a resistant cap. The updraughts were vertical and the
precipitation
> >was reported to have been mostly just hail and some quite severe hail
> >reports in that. I will wait until verification of these reports to come
> >through before commenting on hail size. As I said these storms developed
> >during the late afternoon and due to impressive heating breaking the cap.
> >One other thing is that this storm developed inland and required higher
dew
> >points to lower the LCL.
> >
> >By the way, Judy is referring to the following link:
> >
> >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall03.htm
> >
> >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall04.htm
> >
> >Supercells are almost always spectacular.
> >
> >Jimmy Deguara
> >
> >
> >
> >At 09:21 AM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> > >Hi Jimmy and Everyone,
> > >
> > >We know how excited you were to see a storm like that and IN Sydney!  I
> > >will have to show a lot of our friends around here, so that they will
> > >realise that at least two of them have occurred in the Metro Area.
> > >
> > >It appears in the photos to be as large as the one that we were lucky
> > >enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a lucky
month.
> > >
> > >For all of you who never found my photos they are on the Australian
Severe
> > >Weather photo pages under Wall Clouds.
> > >
> > >Judy Mayo
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
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your
> >  message.
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> >
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 22:27:35 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 at : Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Phil,


At 10:08 PM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
Very nice photos there Jimmy,



Cheers Phil.


>  it seems around that area is a bit of a
>hotspot for LP supercells.

Not quite sure about the term "hotspot" - question is do we have many LP 
supercells full stop? I would regard having many in a database before I 
would start using the term hotspot. However as to development of supercells 
over all, perhaps yes. The SW suburbs seem to be more in line for 
supercells that develop around the Southern Highlands and the high country 
to the SW.

Jimmy Deguara

>----- Original Message -----
> at : "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 10:03 PM
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: LP Supercell
>
>
> > Hi Dan,
> >
> > Good to see some action go up around the place.
> >
> > Sorry I forgot to mention and it has caused a little confusion the
>location
> > of the storm (at 1:00am thinking was a low priority). The LP supercell was
> > south of Camden. The first LP supercell was further to the east
>somewhere -
> > NW of Wollongong.
> >
> > I hope this helps.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > At 09:36 PM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> > >I have been hiking in the Moreton National Park for the last 4 days. I
> > >suspected that something would fire in that time.
> > >Monday was one of the most explosive mornings i have ever seen.  Driving
> > >down to Bundanoon small CJ's built instantly into massive cells, with
> > >extremely mature bases and structure  at  11am. The lower level shear was
> > >superb,  with all development having great lean. As the afternoon
> > >progressed, storms fired everywhere around us as we hiked into Kangaroo
> > >Valley.  at  noon til around 5pm, there was constant thunder, and some of
> > >the closest and most frequent flangs i have every observed. Pile that all
>up
> > >with 2cm hail, and 40mm+ and it was a good start.
> > >
> > >Yesterday I could see the storms to the north breaking the cap later in
>the
> > >afternoon, and massive updrafts curling up into the late afternoon sun.
> > >
> > >The structure in these storms are awesome Jimmy!
> > >Well done indeed.
> > >
> > >Where were these storms?
> > >
> > >dann
> > >
> > >-----Original Message-----
> > > at : aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
> > >Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 6:35 PM
> > >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: LP Supercell
> > >
> > >
> > >Hi Judy,
> > >
> > >Yes good observation. There is a marked similarity between the structure
> > >achieved on the 8th February 2002 (just over a year to the time of
> > >occurrence of this storm) and this storm. The "Cow Catcher" structure was
> > >the give-away however the storm on the northern Beaches seems to have
> > >had  more precipitation attached to it. I also recall that temperatures
> > >aloft were cooling rather rapidly. There was not much of a cap with
>storms
> > >developing early afternoon. This storm was close to the coast feeding on
> > >available moisture.
> > >
> > >This event of yesterday seemed to have more explosive updraughts breaking
> > >through a resistant cap. The updraughts were vertical and the
>precipitation
> > >was reported to have been mostly just hail and some quite severe hail
> > >reports in that. I will wait until verification of these reports to come
> > >through before commenting on hail size. As I said these storms developed
> > >during the late afternoon and due to impressive heating breaking the cap.
> > >One other thing is that this storm developed inland and required higher
>dew
> > >points to lower the LCL.
> > >
> > >By the way, Judy is referring to the following link:
> > >
> > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall03.htm
> > >
> > >http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall04.htm
> > >
> > >Supercells are almost always spectacular.
> > >
> > >Jimmy Deguara
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >At 09:21 AM 13/2/2003 +1100, you wrote:
> > > >Hi Jimmy and Everyone,
> > > >
> > > >We know how excited you were to see a storm like that and IN Sydney!  I
> > > >will have to show a lot of our friends around here, so that they will
> > > >realise that at least two of them have occurred in the Metro Area.
> > > >
> > > >It appears in the photos to be as large as the one that we were lucky
> > > >enough to witness of the beach last February 8th, must be a lucky
>month.
> > > >
> > > >For all of you who never found my photos they are on the Australian
>Severe
> > > >Weather photo pages under Wall Clouds.
> > > >
> > > >Judy Mayo
> > >
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>to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>your
> > >  message.
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> > >
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> > >Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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</x-flowed>
 at : "David Carroll" <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Fw: [EDIS]  TORNADO WARNING [FLASH: Fresno Area]
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 11:41:33 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This might interest some people. 
Dave

----- Original Message ----- 
 at : "EDIS Email Service" <edismail at incident.com>
To: <EDIS-by-Email at incident.com>
Sent: Friday, February 14, 2003 11:08 AM
Subject: [EDIS] TORNADO WARNING [FLASH: Fresno Area]


> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
> 406 PM PST THU FEB 13 2003
> 
> THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD CA HAS ISSUED A
> 
> * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
>   WEST CENTRAL FRESNO COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
> 
> * UNTIL 430 PM PST
> 
> * AT 358 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST
>   OF FIREBAUGH...OR ABOUT 25 MILES WEST OF MADERA...MOVING NORTHEAST
>   AT 20 MPH.
> 
> THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
> WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
> AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
> INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
> COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY  at  WINDOWS.
> 
> IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
> SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
> NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
> 
> LAT...LON 3680 12079 3667 12064 3683 12042 3698 12055
> 
> 
> [TORHNX / WFUS56 KHNX 1045181254]
> 
> EDIS-02-13-03 1607 PST
> 
> 
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> To update or terminate your subscription to this email service
> visit our webpage at http://www.incident.com/edismail.html.
> Please DO NOT reply to this message: replies may be treated as
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> 

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 at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 12:11:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Everyone,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean.&nbsp; Quite a 
sight.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Judy</FONT></DIV><BR>&nbsp;<A 
href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=5410">http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=5410</A></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean.url"
 at : "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:57:08 -0600
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Wishing 
everyone a Grand Aussie Summer:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've just seen on weather.com, the conditions atop 
Mount Washington, New Hampshire(elev. 6,288FT/1,917.0M)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At 10:45 P.M. EST, Temp.:-32F(-35.5C), 
cloudy/blowing snow/fog, Visibility: 1/10th Mile(160.9M), Wind: WNW at 
93MPH(149.7Kph) gusting to 105MPH(169.0Kph), Wind Chill:-78F(-61.1C). Wow, 
that's just about Mindblowing!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Yours David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Phillip Basil-Jones" <pbones at datafast.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 16:20:32 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wow! Even the thought of that makes you 
shiver.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 14, 2003 2:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  Wishing everyone a Grand Aussie Summer:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've just seen on weather.com, the conditions 
  atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire(elev. 6,288FT/1,917.0M)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At 10:45 P.M. EST, Temp.:-32F(-35.5C), 
  cloudy/blowing snow/fog, Visibility: 1/10th Mile(160.9M), Wind: WNW at 
  93MPH(149.7Kph) gusting to 105MPH(169.0Kph), Wind Chill:-78F(-61.1C). Wow, 
  that's just about Mindblowing!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Yours David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 17:15:50 +1100
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Hi Guys,

I was in Canberra all week for work, but managed to chase the Bungendore
Storm. I first picked it up just north of Sutton. It was a very photogenic
little series of storms. I say series as it was composed of a series of
several pulses, each one tagging onto the southern flank.

I hit its peak around the range west of Bungendore ( between Bungendore and
the Hume Hwy ) where I encountered some small hail, hail at one stage was
the only precip on a dry road.

It did not make the journey off the range too well and died over Bungendore
itself, I think east of the range was stable seabreeze.
In fact it was interesting watching the east wind come in about sunset on
three evenings during the week.

The storm you can as the Thawra storm had potential but just did not
deliver. It started along a convergence line, that at one stage tried to
develop a inflow band. I should have a panorama of this one taken  at 
Queanbeyan.

I'll have a report and pics up later tonight of tomorrow.

Michael


----- Original Message -----
 at : "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 8:34 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics


> Hi Steve - great pics...
>
> I also managed to get some pics of both storms but  at  an angle to the
> north of where you were.
> It was a great set of views.
>
> Bungendore storm
>
> http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Bung/
>
> Tharwa Storm
>
> http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Tugg/
>
> Patrick
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
> To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 10:57 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
>
>
> > hey everyone,
> > heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern
> > Cnaberra.
> > first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera. rest
is
> > of a thundery strom that
> > missed tuugeranong but went on  to hit tharwa. south of canberra.
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg
> > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg
> >
> >
> >
> > Steve Baynham
> > icq : 26863574
> >
> > Brisbane Storm Chasers
> > http://www.bsch.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> > Homepage
> > http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
> >
> >
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> >  message.
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>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>

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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 17:20:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY style="COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial" bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Now that's cold!!! Nearly want to make you put on a jumper 
(pullover).</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B> at :</B> 
  <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, February 14, 2003 2:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  Wishing everyone a Grand Aussie Summer:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've just seen on weather.com, the conditions 
  atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire(elev. 6,288FT/1,917.0M)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At 10:45 P.M. EST, Temp.:-32F(-35.5C), 
  cloudy/blowing snow/fog, Visibility: 1/10th Mile(160.9M), Wind: WNW at 
  93MPH(149.7Kph) gusting to 105MPH(169.0Kph), Wind Chill:-78F(-61.1C). Wow, 
  that's just about Mindblowing!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Yours David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

 at : "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 17:25:40 +1100
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WOW, fantastic stuff Michael - our most stormy week in ages, and you happen
to be working here, how's that for luck!!!

Simon
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 14, 2003 5:15 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics


> Hi Guys,
>
> I was in Canberra all week for work, but managed to chase the Bungendore
> Storm. I first picked it up just north of Sutton. It was a very photogenic
> little series of storms. I say series as it was composed of a series of
> several pulses, each one tagging onto the southern flank.
>
> I hit its peak around the range west of Bungendore ( between Bungendore
and
> the Hume Hwy ) where I encountered some small hail, hail at one stage was
> the only precip on a dry road.
>
> It did not make the journey off the range too well and died over
Bungendore
> itself, I think east of the range was stable seabreeze.
> In fact it was interesting watching the east wind come in about sunset on
> three evenings during the week.
>
> The storm you can as the Thawra storm had potential but just did not
> deliver. It started along a convergence line, that at one stage tried to
> develop a inflow band. I should have a panorama of this one taken  at 
> Queanbeyan.
>
> I'll have a report and pics up later tonight of tomorrow.
>
> Michael
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, February 13, 2003 8:34 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
>
>
> > Hi Steve - great pics...
> >
> > I also managed to get some pics of both storms but  at  an angle to the
> > north of where you were.
> > It was a great set of views.
> >
> > Bungendore storm
> >
> > http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Bung/
> >
> > Tharwa Storm
> >
> > http://members.ozemail.com.au/~patricktobin/wx/20030213Tugg/
> >
> > Patrick
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >  at : "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
> > To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 12, 2003 10:57 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: ACT/NSW storm pics
> >
> >
> > > hey everyone,
> > > heres som ecaptures i got yesterday afternnon  at  Chisholm, Southern
> > > Cnaberra.
> > > first is of a storm that passed over bungendoRe, east of canbeera.
rest
> is
> > > of a thundery strom that
> > > missed tuugeranong but went on  to hit tharwa. south of canberra.
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021101.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021102.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021103.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021104.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021105.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021106.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021107.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021108.jpg
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/steve/03021109.jpg
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Steve Baynham
> > > icq : 26863574
> > >
> > > Brisbane Storm Chasers
> > > http://www.bsch.au.com
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Association
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
> > > Homepage
> > > http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany
> > >
> > >
> > >
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Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 14:58:25 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
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We are a couple of cents short of $11 per litre here.  Most of it is tax.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, "Wx-Chase" <WX-
CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU>
Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 19:34:55 -0800
Subject: aus-wx: Gas Prices

> Hey All,
> 
> With the rising cost of gas prices on the planet, could this be a sign
> of
> things to come???
> 
> http://www.coolfunnypictures.com/GasPrices!.html
> 
> PaulY
> 
> 
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Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 18:02:44 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
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 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
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<DIV>starve the lizards&nbsp;&nbsp;phil.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>what's the exchange rate to $A?</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>richard<BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=IncrediOriginalMessage><I>-------Original Message-------</I></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV id=receivestrings>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B> at :</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Date:</B></I> Friday, 14 February 2003 5:32:13 PM</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>To:</B></I> <A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt" <i><B>Subject:</B></I> Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices</DIV></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>We are a couple of cents short of $11 per litre here. Most of it is tax.<BR><BR>Phil<BR>&lt;&gt;&lt;<BR><BR>International Christian School E-mail: <A href="mailto:SmithP at ics.edu.hk">SmithP at ics.edu.hk</A><BR>Doctor Disk E-mail: <A href="mailto:phil at drdisk.com.hk">phil at drdisk.com.hk</A><BR>MSN Messenger: <A href="mailto:doctordisk at hotmail.com">doctordisk at hotmail.com</A><BR>Web-site: <A href="http://www.drdisk.com.hk">http://www.drdisk.com.hk</A><BR>Testimony: <A href="http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm">http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm</A><BR>Weather: <A href="http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm">http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm</A><BR><BR><BR><BR>-----Original Message-----<BR> at : "Paul Yole" &lt;<A href="mailto:pyole78 at yahoo.com.au">pyole78 at yahoo.com.au</A>&gt;<BR>To: "Aussie Weather" &lt;<A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A>&gt;, "Wx-Chase" &lt;WX-<BR><A href="mailto:CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU">CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU</A>&gt;<BR>Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 19:34:55 -0800<BR>Subject: aus-wx: Gas Prices<BR><BR>&gt; Hey All,<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; With the rising cost of gas prices on the planet, could this be a sign<BR>&gt; of<BR>&gt; things to come???<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; <A href="http://www.coolfunnypictures.com/GasPrices!.html">http://www.coolfunnypictures.com/GasPrices!.html</A><BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; PaulY<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-<BR>&gt; +<BR>&gt; To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail<BR>&gt; <A href="mailto:to:majordomo at world.std.com">to:majordomo at world.std.com</A><BR>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of<BR>&gt; your<BR>&gt; message.<BR>&gt; <A href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------</A><BR>&gt; -<BR><BR>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather senRe aus-wx Gas Prices.ems
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X-Originating-IP: [144.139.221.160]
 at : "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 21:42:15 +1100
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<x-flowed>





Judy and Adam  and all,
Specacular!I have not seen such an active pattern in the Indian Ocean in all 
my years in this business (ie since 1967) although such events do occurr in 
the Norh West Pacific .How often if ever does such event occurr in the 
Indian Ocean .Any ideas any one why so active this season ?Is it related to 
the El Nino?If I get a moment I will check the Annual Typhoon Reports  at  
JWTC which I have back to the 1970 season.

Gavin SSWW Canberra
> at : "Adam Mayo" <oyam at ihug.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean
>Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 12:11:32 +1100
>
>Hi Everyone,
>
>Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean.  Quite a sight.
>Judy
>
>  http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=5410
><< EONaturalHazardsFourCyclonesintheIndianOcean.url >>

_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail now available on Australian mobile phones. Go to  
http://ninemsn.com.au/mobilecentral/hotmail_mobile.asp

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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 20:54:15 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
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AUD$1 = HKD$4.2, I think so HKD$11 = AUD$2.62 per litre.  That's just 
about an arm and a leg for sure!

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 18:02:44 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices

> starve the lizards  phil.

> 

> what's the exchange rate to $A?

> 

> richard

>  

> -------Original Message-------

>  

>  at : aussie-weather at world.std.com

> Date: Friday, 14 February 2003 5:32:13 PM

> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices

>  

> We are a couple of cents short of $11 per litre here. Most of it is
> tax.

> 

> Phil

> <><

> 

> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk

> Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk

> MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com

> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk

> Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm

> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm

> 

> 

> 

> -----Original Message-----

>  at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>

> To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, "Wx-Chase" <WX-

> CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU>

> Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 19:34:55 -0800

> Subject: aus-wx: Gas Prices

> 

> > Hey All,

> > 

> > With the rising cost of gas prices on the planet, could this be a
> sign

> > of

> > things to come???

> > 

> > http://www.coolfunnypictures.com/GasPrices!.html

> > 

> > PaulY

> > 

> > 

> >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-

> > +

> > To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail

> > to:majordomo at world.std.com

> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of

> > your

> > message.

> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------

> > -

> 

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> message.

> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 

> 

> . 

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Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 20:56:31 +0800
 at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
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That explains why brass monkeys are bloody scarce around Mount 
Washington.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
 at : "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Thu, 13 Feb 2003 21:57:08 -0600
Subject: aus-wx: BRRRRRRR!!!!!!!

> Hello All:
>         Wishing everyone a Grand Aussie Summer:
> I've just seen on weather.com, the conditions atop Mount Washington,
> New Hampshire(elev. 6,288FT/1,917.0M)
> At 10:45 P.M. EST, Temp.:-32F(-35.5C), cloudy/blowing snow/fog,
> Visibility: 1/10th Mile(160.9M), Wind: WNW at 93MPH(149.7Kph) gusting
> to 105MPH(169.0Kph), Wind Chill:-78F(-61.1C). Wow, that's just about
> Mindblowing!
> Cheers Yours David Powell
> 

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Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2003 08:56:51 +1300
 at : Ross <cvamax at i4free.co.nz>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I remember 3 in the southwest Pacific in 1997.  at  the west; Ron, Susan
and Tristan.
Susan 'ate' Ron south of Fiji, and Tristan escaped westwards to the
Indian Ocean (via the Coral Sea and Timor Sea), was renamed (twice!) and
eventually (I think?) produced world record rainfall intensities on La
Reunion.

Cheers

Ross


> Adam Mayo wrote:
> 
> Hi Everyone,
> 
> Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean.  Quite a sight.
> Judy
> 
>  http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=5410
> 
>                                                                Name: EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian
>                                                                      Ocean.url
>    EO Natural Hazards Four Cyclones in the Indian Ocean.url    Type: Internet Shortcut
>                                                                      (application/x-unknown-content-type-InternetShortcut)
>                                                            Encoding: quoted-printable

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 at : "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2003 10:53:11 +1100
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How much!!!!
Our unleaded here is 102.9 cents per litre and 59.9 for gas.
----- Original Message -----
 at : "Neville Gibb" <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 15, 2003 11:41 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices


> Gid'day All
>
> I know this is a weather forum, but seems you brought it up:
> Regular's just gone up to here to NZ$115.50 (A$107.56) per litre.
> What's the average in Oz?
>
> Neville
>
> >  at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 20:54:15 +0800
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> >
> > AUD$1 = HKD$4.2, I think so HKD$11 = AUD$2.62 per litre.  That's just
> > about an arm and a leg for sure!
> >
> > Phil
> > <><
> >
> > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> > Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
> > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> > Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
> > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >  at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 18:02:44 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> >
> >> starve the lizards  phil.
> >
> >>
> >
> >> what's the exchange rate to $A?
> >
> >>
> >
> >> richard
> >
> >>
> >
> >> -------Original Message-------
> >
> >>
> >
> >>  at : aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >
> >> Date: Friday, 14 February 2003 5:32:13 PM
> >
> >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >
> >> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> >
> >>
> >
> >> We are a couple of cents short of $11 per litre here. Most of it is
> >> tax.
> >
> >>
> >
> >> Phil
> >
> >> <><
> >
> >>
> >
> >> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> >
> >> Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >
> >> MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
> >
> >> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> >
> >> Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
> >
> >> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >>
> >
> >>
> >
> >>
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >
> >>  at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
> >
> >> To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, "Wx-Chase" <WX-
> >
> >> CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU>
> >
> >> Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 19:34:55 -0800
> >
> >> Subject: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> >
> >>
> >
> >>> Hey All,
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> With the rising cost of gas prices on the planet, could this be a
> >> sign
> >
> >>> of
> >
> >>> things to come???
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> http://www.coolfunnypictures.com/GasPrices!.html
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>> PaulY
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>>
> >
> >>>
> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> >
> >>> +
> >
> >>> To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >
> >>> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >
> >>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >
> >>> your
> >
> >>> message.
> >
> >>>
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> >
> >>> -
> >
> >>
> >
> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >>
> >
> >> To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
> >> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >
> >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >> your
> >
> >> message.
> >
> >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >>
> >
> >>
> >
> >> .
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe  at  aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

 at : "S. McGhee" <celt at xtra.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
Date: Sat, 15 Feb 2003 13:16:28 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I think Neville meant NZ$1.15 / litre, although I haven't recently checked
the exchange rate.....  :)

(In Far North of NZ we can pay upto NZ$1.22 litre at the moment, trouble is,
stations are so remote around here it's not worth trying to shop around -
30km to next nearest Fuel Stop).

Cheers
Pete
----- Original Message -----
 at : Bussy <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 15, 2003 12:53 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices


> How much!!!!
> Our unleaded here is 102.9 cents per litre and 59.9 for gas.
> ----- Original Message -----
>  at : "Neville Gibb" <nev.gibb at ihug.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, February 15, 2003 11:41 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
>
>
> > Gid'day All
> >
> > I know this is a weather forum, but seems you brought it up:
> > Regular's just gone up to here to NZ$115.50 (A$107.56) per litre.
> > What's the average in Oz?
> >
> > Neville
> >
> > >  at : "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 20:54:15 +0800
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> > >
> > > AUD$1 = HKD$4.2, I think so HKD$11 = AUD$2.62 per litre.  That's just
> > > about an arm and a leg for sure!
> > >
> > > Phil
> > > <><
> > >
> > > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> > > Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > > MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
> > > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> > > Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
> > > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > >  at : "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Date: Fri, 14 Feb 2003 18:02:44 +1030 (Cen. Australia Daylight Time)
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> > >
> > >> starve the lizards  phil.
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> what's the exchange rate to $A?
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> richard
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> -------Original Message-------
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >>  at : aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >
> > >> Date: Friday, 14 February 2003 5:32:13 PM
> > >
> > >> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >
> > >> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> We are a couple of cents short of $11 per litre here. Most of it is
> > >> tax.
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> Phil
> > >
> > >> <><
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> > >
> > >> Doctor Disk E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > >
> > >> MSN Messenger: doctordisk at hotmail.com
> > >
> > >> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> > >
> > >> Testimony: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/PhilSmith/about.htm
> > >
> > >> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >>
> > >
> > >> -----Original Message-----
> > >
> > >>  at : "Paul Yole" <pyole78 at yahoo.com.au>
> > >
> > >> To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>, "Wx-Chase" <WX-
> > >
> > >> CHASE at listserv.UIUC.EDU>
> > >
> > >> Date: Thu, 13 Mar 2003 19:34:55 -0800
> > >
> > >> Subject: aus-wx: Gas Prices
> > >
> > >>
> > >
>