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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 00:27:45 +1000
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Hi All
Just thought i would add, there was heavy snow reported up near Sutton
Forest (near Goulburn, 1/2 way between Canberra and Sydney) yesterday, heavy
enough to delay some delievery trucks into Canberra yesterday arfternoon. I
had noticed a resonable area of convection north of the ACT yesterday  at 
2:30pm around the areas of the snowfalls, and initilally thought of a large
thunderstorm was the reason, but then got a call saying the trucks had been
delayed and then it clicked. :-)

Cheers
---------------------------------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------------------
Member of:
Australian Severe Weather Association.
www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------------------------
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, September 30, 2002 3:33 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast


>
> Good Afternoon Clyve,
>
> Thanks for replying.  It was a dynamic little system. My Sister who lives
in
> Monbulk also recieved sleet for a good 20 minutes.  She was rather
> surprised.  It quite possibly snowed in the Dandenongs during Saturday
> afternoon with the cold air.
>
> Quite surprised to see another 4mm in the guage to 9am this morning from
> overnight drizzle and light showers.
>
> Next system shows a bit of interest, could pick up few showers and a storm
> Wednesday if it holds its integrity.
>
> Karl :)
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 12:43:23 +1000
> >
> >Hi Karl. I have to say I was very surprised to see sleet! My youngest boy
> >pointed it out to me as I was having a late breakfast and enjoying the
> >sound
> >of falling rain. The fall of sleet lasted about 5 minutes with definite
> >flakes (wet) some rather large falling within the rain, the temp dipped
to
> >5.7c. Leopold elevation is only about 50m, however I have seen sleet here
> >in
> >1986 with a temp of 5.5.c. With a fall of sleet to low levels I was on
the
> >blower to find if snow or sleet was falling elsewhere, it seems that a
band
> >of active cold air showers with thunder and hail had passed near the
Otway
> >range around 8am to 9am and produced hail sleet and snow at least down to
> >300m , this area of enhanced CB activity moved  to the northeast and
> >affected the Geelong to Melton area later in the morning. Also I was
> >following up reports of sleet from around the Melton area and to the wet
of
> >Werribee. regards Clyve Herbert.
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Karl Lijnders <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 5:45 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Just on 11mm of rain here today, very heavy downpours through the
> >afternoon,
> > > a few thunderstorms to the west of the city too.  Been a fairly good
> >system,
> > > was hoping for more widespread thunderstorm activity, but the rain was
> >nice.
> > >
> > > Sleet down on the coast, thats amazing.  What is Leopold's elevation?
> > >
> > > Karl :)
> > >
> > > >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Subject: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > > >Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:14:11 +1000
> > > >
> > > >Hi all... Well, surprise,surprise, The thermal trough has just passed
> > > >through central Victoria, about 1045 my air temp fell to 6c here at
> >Leopold
> > > >with light to moderate rain, I nearly choked on my marmalade toast
when
> > > >sleet started to fall, sleet fell for about 5 minutes and then
changed
> >to
> > > >rain very rapidly although the rain still contained bits of soft ice,
> >looks
> > > >like this air will be cold enough to bring a few flakes to the
> > > >Dandenong's..regards Clyve Herbert.
> > >
> > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
> http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 10:28:03 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Way off but
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Bussie<BR>
cursur lock and (AOL) are the only problems we have had to date after about 12 months .<BR>
AOL seems to build up probs. over time . We are only runnining a celeron 466 MHZ chip on a average main board whith far to much built in&nbsp; -modem and video - not recomemed . I would also recomened&nbsp; to anyone wnen your key board gets to the stage that the letter E looks like an F and R like P buy a new keyboarb . I cant touch type .<BR>
<BR>
Regards&nbsp; Dennis Cottle</FONT></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 15:23:39 -0400 (EDT)
From: David Hart <dhart at theworld.com>
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From: "Robert Goler" <robs_dream2 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Gulf Line field experiment
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 01:44:14 +1000
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Hi all

Just thought I'd mention that I'm currently in Karumba (northern Qld) 
involved in the Gulf Line field experiment. (I = Robert Goler)

For those not in the know, this is a field experiment involving people from 
Monash Uni in Melbourne (where I'm from), people from the BoM and people 
from the University of Munich in Germany.  We're all here to collect data 
from weather stations, pilot balloons, and radiosondes to study the morning 
glory around the southern Cape York Peninsula, and the north Australian 
cloud line over the northern peninsula.  There is no mobile coverage up 
here, so I'll occasionally post an email or two on the list when something 
interesting happens. For some basic info about what these cloud lines look 
like, see here:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Thesis/introduction.html

I arrived on Sunday with a fellow student after driving all the way up from 
Melbourne leaving Wednesday.  Had to drive up with Monash Uni's 4wd as we 
had to take a whole load of equipment up with us.  The trip was pretty 
uneventful, ie no break downs or fatal encounters with wildlife...although 
quite a few bugs got up close and personal with the windshield.  The most 
exciting parts were the dust filled skies around Jerilderie on Wednesday, 
and coming into Goondiwindi on Thursday night where we did see some distant 
lightning further to the north.
For the record we stayed the night at West Wyalong, Goondiwindi, Rockhampton 
(a real dodgey place!) and Townsville, and sampled what nightlife they had 
on offer...hence the late starts the following morning...hehe!

In Karumba we've had southerlies the past 2 days as a cold front passed 
through early on Sunday morning. However conditions should be ok for the 
next few days for morning glories to form, so hopefully something exciting 
will happen!

Cheers,

Robert

_________________________________________________________________
Join the world^Òs largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. 
http://www.hotmail.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 07:25:58 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Simon..
Don't believe everything you hear.
First of all,I assume you are referring to Sunday afternoon, 
2nd - Sutton forest is near Bowral - Mittagong and quite a distance from
Goulburn.
3rd - the 3 pm temps in both Bowral and Moss Vale were 11 degrees.(In
goulburn it was 12) and in Moss Vale it fell to 9 at 4pm - hardly "snow"
temps. Bowral did report past storm at 6 pm.
A friend who was in Bowral playing golf told me there was a fair bit of
small hail as the storm passed around 4-4.30 but nothing unusual for
such an event.
Snow remains the most mis-reported meteorological phenomenon in
Australia... more so even than the famous "mini tornado"! So, as a
weather list, let's not encourage this.
Cheers,
Don White

Simon Angell wrote:
> 
> Hi All
> Just thought i would add, there was heavy snow reported up near Sutton
> Forest (near Goulburn, 1/2 way between Canberra and Sydney) yesterday, heavy
> enough to delay some delievery trucks into Canberra yesterday arfternoon. I
> had noticed a resonable area of convection north of the ACT yesterday  at 
> 2:30pm around the areas of the snowfalls, and initilally thought of a large
> thunderstorm was the reason, but then got a call saying the trucks had been
> delayed and then it clicked. :-)
> 
> Cheers
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> Simon Angell
> Canberra ACT
> www.canberra-wx.com
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> Member of:
> Australian Severe Weather Association.
> www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> This email is virus free.
> Scanned before leaving my mailbox
> using Norton Antivirus 2002 for Win2k
> Scanned with the latest definition File.
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, September 30, 2002 3:33 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> 
> >
> > Good Afternoon Clyve,
> >
> > Thanks for replying.  It was a dynamic little system. My Sister who lives
> in
> > Monbulk also recieved sleet for a good 20 minutes.  She was rather
> > surprised.  It quite possibly snowed in the Dandenongs during Saturday
> > afternoon with the cold air.
> >
> > Quite surprised to see another 4mm in the guage to 9am this morning from
> > overnight drizzle and light showers.
> >
> > Next system shows a bit of interest, could pick up few showers and a storm
> > Wednesday if it holds its integrity.
> >
> > Karl :)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 12:43:23 +1000
> > >
> > >Hi Karl. I have to say I was very surprised to see sleet! My youngest boy
> > >pointed it out to me as I was having a late breakfast and enjoying the
> > >sound
> > >of falling rain. The fall of sleet lasted about 5 minutes with definite
> > >flakes (wet) some rather large falling within the rain, the temp dipped
> to
> > >5.7c. Leopold elevation is only about 50m, however I have seen sleet here
> > >in
> > >1986 with a temp of 5.5.c. With a fall of sleet to low levels I was on
> the
> > >blower to find if snow or sleet was falling elsewhere, it seems that a
> band
> > >of active cold air showers with thunder and hail had passed near the
> Otway
> > >range around 8am to 9am and produced hail sleet and snow at least down to
> > >300m , this area of enhanced CB activity moved  to the northeast and
> > >affected the Geelong to Melton area later in the morning. Also I was
> > >following up reports of sleet from around the Melton area and to the wet
> of
> > >Werribee. regards Clyve Herbert.
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: Karl Lijnders <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 5:45 PM
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Just on 11mm of rain here today, very heavy downpours through the
> > >afternoon,
> > > > a few thunderstorms to the west of the city too.  Been a fairly good
> > >system,
> > > > was hoping for more widespread thunderstorm activity, but the rain was
> > >nice.
> > > >
> > > > Sleet down on the coast, thats amazing.  What is Leopold's elevation?
> > > >
> > > > Karl :)
> > > >
> > > > >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> > > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > >Subject: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > > > >Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:14:11 +1000
> > > > >
> > > > >Hi all... Well, surprise,surprise, The thermal trough has just passed
> > > > >through central Victoria, about 1045 my air temp fell to 6c here at
> > >Leopold
> > > > >with light to moderate rain, I nearly choked on my marmalade toast
> when
> > > > >sleet started to fall, sleet fell for about 5 minutes and then
> changed
> > >to
> > > > >rain very rapidly although the rain still contained bits of soft ice,
> > >looks
> > > > >like this air will be cold enough to bring a few flakes to the
> > > > >Dandenong's..regards Clyve Herbert.
> > > >
> > > > _________________________________________________________________
> > > > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
> > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
> > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> 
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From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 08:22:43 +1000
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV>Hi Bussy</DIV>
<DIV>The best thing I find about XP is it's stability and it's ability to hardly 
ever be reset. As I run my AWS 24hrs a day I have the PC on all the time. I 
think I didn't reset my PC for close to a month not so long ago and it was still 
running fast before I did reset it. I would certainly recommend it.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Dave Ellem</DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=dencot1 at aol.com href="mailto:dencot1 at aol.com">dencot1 at aol.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 01, 2002 12:28 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Way off but</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2 
  FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Bussie<BR>cursur lock and (AOL) are the only problems we 
  have had to date after about 12 months .<BR>AOL seems to build up probs. over 
  time . We are only runnining a celeron 466 MHZ chip on a average main board 
  whith far to much built in&nbsp; -modem and video - not recomemed . I would 
  also recomened&nbsp; to anyone wnen your key board gets to the stage that the 
  letter E looks like an F and R like P buy a new keyboarb . I cant touch type 
  .<BR><BR>Regards&nbsp; Dennis Cottle</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 08:13:23 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>whats AOL?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>richard</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=dencot1 at aol.com href="mailto:dencot1 at aol.com">dencot1 at aol.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 30, 2002 11:58 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Way off but</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2 
  FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Bussie<BR>cursur lock and (AOL) are the only problems we 
  have had to date after about 12 months .<BR>AOL seems to build up probs. over 
  time . We are only runnining a celeron 466 MHZ chip on a average main board 
  whith far to much built in&nbsp; -modem and video - not recomemed . I would 
  also recomened&nbsp; to anyone wnen your key board gets to the stage that the 
  letter E looks like an F and R like P buy a new keyboarb . I cant touch type 
  .<BR><BR>Regards&nbsp; Dennis Cottle</FONT> </FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:01:27 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Australia On-Line</FONT></DIV>
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=hambone at dodo.com.au href="mailto:hambone at dodo.com.au">Richard 
  Modistach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 01, 2002 8:43 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Way off but</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>whats AOL?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff 
size=2>richard</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:10:01 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I forgot Bussy, the only problem I had was with the drives for my
add-ons...needed new drivers that were compat with xp.

Carolyn

OH AOL is an internet service....

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From: "Carolyn" <carolyn at netcentral.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:10:32 +1000
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I forgot Bussy, the only problem I had was with the drives for my
add-ons...needed new drivers that were compat with xp.

Carolyn

OH AOL is an internet service....

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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:33:32 +1000 
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2655.55)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



>Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 21:02:35 +0930
>From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
>Subject: aus-wx: water restrictions for melb.
>
>heard on the news tonight melbourne's about to officially go onto water
>restrictions, I wonder if this setup coming through wed-thurs\sun-mon can
>delay things a bit, probably hardly make a dent anyway, better to bite th=
>e
>bullet now, god only knows what the future holds.
>
>just out of interest, does anyone have historical data for the last 20-30=
>yrs
>on melbs. water restrictions?, when and for how long.

Richard this is typical media hyperbole. The trigger point for restrictions
in Melbourne in October is 52% and the reservoirs are at 54.1%... 2% might
not sound like much but it is. The trigger point for November is 54%, so we
could conceivably go into restriction a month from now if we have next to no
rain this month (but October is one of our wettest months around Melbourne).
Further details on the % triggers can be found at
http://www.melbournewater.com.au/system/navsearch.asp
Looking at these, I would expect the crunch period for restrictions to be
-December-January when the cut-off is 53-52%. A very dry October-November
could see our dams approaching these values.

As for bringing restriction in earlier, personally I think that is just
silly. These restriction levels are well thought out trigger levels based on
history; bringing them in earlier would just amount to scaremongering.

Philosophically, I don't agree with the way restrictions are imposed as they
ignore the most wasteful water practices in our society. For example, why
should home owners be able to purchase top loading washing machines which
use ~200 litres of water per load while a front loader will do the same job
with half as many litres. The same goes for water saving shower heads, dual
flush toilets, dish washers etc (BTW I have water tanks, dual flush toilets,
a water saving dish washers, a front loading washing machine, and recycle
grey water). Depriving home owners of keeping their gardens alive during
drought seems like a silly knee jerk reaction to me.

Regards,

David

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Way off but
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:52:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I run XP Professional on the desktop (upgraded from 
Win 98) and XP Home on the laptop (came with it). Both seem pretty stable and 
run a lot quicker than Win 98.I'm annoyed that Java doesn't come with it (due to 
Microsoft's lawsuit). I upgraded the desktop from 256 to 512MB of RAM and this 
made quite a difference to speed (not surprisingly) not only for XP but 
everything else.Clock speed is 1GHz. There have been a few times when things 
suddenly run dead slow ie things seem to get stuck in the pipeline until you hit 
Alt-F4 and then it fixes itself so I don't know what that is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I would recommend upgrading..the benefits far 
outweigh the disadvantages.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 30, 2002 9:41 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Way off but</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Way off topic but a serious 
question.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anyone running XP and any thoughts on it. 
  Thinking of jumping up.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 09:59:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


As the drought index here passes 150mm and the grass dies off I often wonder
how to recycle all the waste.I think we'd all have those water saving
facilities if local councils used some of their rate revenue to
finance/subsidise water storage tanks. Where I live we have the highest ,or
one of the highest, rates (cents per $) in NSW.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 9:33 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels


>
> >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 21:02:35 +0930
> >From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> >Subject: aus-wx: water restrictions for melb.
> >
> >heard on the news tonight melbourne's about to officially go onto water
> >restrictions, I wonder if this setup coming through wed-thurs\sun-mon can
> >delay things a bit, probably hardly make a dent anyway, better to bite
th=
> >e
> >bullet now, god only knows what the future holds.
> >
> >just out of interest, does anyone have historical data for the last
20-30=
> >yrs
> >on melbs. water restrictions?, when and for how long.
>
> Richard this is typical media hyperbole. The trigger point for
restrictions
> in Melbourne in October is 52% and the reservoirs are at 54.1%... 2% might
> not sound like much but it is. The trigger point for November is 54%, so
we
> could conceivably go into restriction a month from now if we have next to
no
> rain this month (but October is one of our wettest months around
Melbourne).
> Further details on the % triggers can be found at
> http://www.melbournewater.com.au/system/navsearch.asp
> Looking at these, I would expect the crunch period for restrictions to be
> -December-January when the cut-off is 53-52%. A very dry October-November
> could see our dams approaching these values.
>
> As for bringing restriction in earlier, personally I think that is just
> silly. These restriction levels are well thought out trigger levels based
on
> history; bringing them in earlier would just amount to scaremongering.
>
> Philosophically, I don't agree with the way restrictions are imposed as
they
> ignore the most wasteful water practices in our society. For example, why
> should home owners be able to purchase top loading washing machines which
> use ~200 litres of water per load while a front loader will do the same
job
> with half as many litres. The same goes for water saving shower heads,
dual
> flush toilets, dish washers etc (BTW I have water tanks, dual flush
toilets,
> a water saving dish washers, a front loading washing machine, and recycle
> grey water). Depriving home owners of keeping their gardens alive during
> drought seems like a silly knee jerk reaction to me.
>
> Regards,
>
> David
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 11:09:59 +1000
Organization: The Weather Co.
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Took the words right out of my mouth! I made a similar reply on WZ.

Sutton Forrest is pretty close to the Moss Vale AWS at which it was
indeed quite mild, and the fact that that was the band of showers that
eventually produced winter hail in Sydney seems to suggest to me that
that's the explanation.

(too many 'that's!)

Andrew.


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Don White
Sent: Tuesday, 1 October 2002 7:26 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast


Simon..
Don't believe everything you hear.
First of all,I assume you are referring to Sunday afternoon, 
2nd - Sutton forest is near Bowral - Mittagong and quite a distance from
Goulburn. 3rd - the 3 pm temps in both Bowral and Moss Vale were 11
degrees.(In goulburn it was 12) and in Moss Vale it fell to 9 at 4pm -
hardly "snow" temps. Bowral did report past storm at 6 pm. A friend who
was in Bowral playing golf told me there was a fair bit of small hail as
the storm passed around 4-4.30 but nothing unusual for such an event.
Snow remains the most mis-reported meteorological phenomenon in
Australia... more so even than the famous "mini tornado"! So, as a
weather list, let's not encourage this. Cheers, Don White

Simon Angell wrote:
> 
> Hi All
> Just thought i would add, there was heavy snow reported up near Sutton

> Forest (near Goulburn, 1/2 way between Canberra and Sydney) yesterday,

> heavy enough to delay some delievery trucks into Canberra yesterday 
> arfternoon. I had noticed a resonable area of convection north of the 
> ACT yesterday  at  2:30pm around the areas of the snowfalls, and 
> initilally thought of a large thunderstorm was the reason, but then 
> got a call saying the trucks had been delayed and then it clicked. :-)
> 
> Cheers
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> Simon Angell
> Canberra ACT
> www.canberra-wx.com
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> Member of:
> Australian Severe Weather Association. www.severeweather.asn.au
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> This email is virus free.
> Scanned before leaving my mailbox
> using Norton Antivirus 2002 for Win2k
> Scanned with the latest definition File.
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, September 30, 2002 3:33 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> 
> >
> > Good Afternoon Clyve,
> >
> > Thanks for replying.  It was a dynamic little system. My Sister who 
> > lives
> in
> > Monbulk also recieved sleet for a good 20 minutes.  She was rather 
> > surprised.  It quite possibly snowed in the Dandenongs during 
> > Saturday afternoon with the cold air.
> >
> > Quite surprised to see another 4mm in the guage to 9am this morning 
> > from overnight drizzle and light showers.
> >
> > Next system shows a bit of interest, could pick up few showers and a

> > storm Wednesday if it holds its integrity.
> >
> > Karl :)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 12:43:23 +1000
> > >
> > >Hi Karl. I have to say I was very surprised to see sleet! My 
> > >youngest boy pointed it out to me as I was having a late breakfast 
> > >and enjoying the sound of falling rain. The fall of sleet lasted 
> > >about 5 minutes with definite flakes (wet) some rather large 
> > >falling within the rain, the temp dipped
> to
> > >5.7c. Leopold elevation is only about 50m, however I have seen 
> > >sleet here in 1986 with a temp of 5.5.c. With a fall of sleet to 
> > >low levels I was on
> the
> > >blower to find if snow or sleet was falling elsewhere, it seems 
> > >that a
> band
> > >of active cold air showers with thunder and hail had passed near 
> > >the
> Otway
> > >range around 8am to 9am and produced hail sleet and snow at least 
> > >down to 300m , this area of enhanced CB activity moved  to the 
> > >northeast and affected the Geelong to Melton area later in the 
> > >morning. Also I was following up reports of sleet from around the 
> > >Melton area and to the wet
> of
> > >Werribee. regards Clyve Herbert.
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: Karl Lijnders <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Sent: Saturday, September 28, 2002 5:45 PM
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > Just on 11mm of rain here today, very heavy downpours through 
> > > > the
> > >afternoon,
> > > > a few thunderstorms to the west of the city too.  Been a fairly 
> > > > good
> > >system,
> > > > was hoping for more widespread thunderstorm activity, but the 
> > > > rain was
> > >nice.
> > > >
> > > > Sleet down on the coast, thats amazing.  What is Leopold's 
> > > > elevation?
> > > >
> > > > Karl :)
> > > >
> > > > >From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
> > > > >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > >Subject: aus-wx: Sleet Vic coast
> > > > >Date: Sat, 28 Sep 2002 11:14:11 +1000
> > > > >
> > > > >Hi all... Well, surprise,surprise, The thermal trough has just 
> > > > >passed through central Victoria, about 1045 my air temp fell to

> > > > >6c here at
> > >Leopold
> > > > >with light to moderate rain, I nearly choked on my marmalade 
> > > > >toast
> when
> > > > >sleet started to fall, sleet fell for about 5 minutes and then
> changed
> > >to
> > > > >rain very rapidly although the rain still contained bits of 
> > > > >soft ice,
> > >looks
> > > > >like this air will be cold enough to bring a few flakes to the 
> > > > >Dandenong's..regards Clyve Herbert.
> > > >
> > > > ________________________________________________________________
> > > > _
> > > > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device:
http://mobile.msn.com
> > > >
> > > >
>
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> > > > body of
> > >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >  
> > >
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> > > of
> your
> > >  message.
> > >  
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-------------------------
> > > -----
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _________________________________________________________________
> > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: 
> > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx
> >
> >  
> >
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> >  message.
> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> 
>  
>
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: "Wx-Chase" <WX-CHASE at LISTSERV.UIUC.EDU>,
        "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Ozone hole Splits
Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 21:19:02 -0400
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hey All,

Doing my usual morning news round-up online, and came across this on news.com.au. Hopefully this
could be the beginning of the end for the Ozone Hole :o)

http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5203527%255E1702,00.html

PaulY

Paul Yole
Daddy to Liam Alexander - 08/13/02

"I can neither confirm nor deny I have anything to say"


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Damian" <damoreds at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: September Averages
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 12:33:40 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080>Here are the September 
averages from my backyard in Sydney's Northern Suburbs between Chatswood West 
&amp; North Ryde on the Lane Cove River:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080></FONT></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><U>Average Maximum:</U> 
<EM>25.3</EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><U>Average minimum:</U> 
<EM>7.8</EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><U>Rainfall:</U> <EM>Exactly 
20mm</EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><U>Highest Maximum:</U> 
<EM>33.4 on the 25th</EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><U>Lowest Minimum:</U> 
<EM>2.4 on the 18th</EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face="Courier New" 
color=#000080></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080>You can see each days data 
entered onto my website at:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080><A 
href="http://www.geocities.com/weatherdamo/index.html">http://www.geocities.com/weatherdamo/index.html</A></FONT></STRONG></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Authentication-Warning: shell01.TheWorld.com: dhart owned process doing -bs
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 00:02:32 -0400
From: David Hart <dhart at theworld.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Sorry about that gang
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I was replying to someone who was not able to send mail to the list. The
old "reply" button sent it to the whole list.

-dkh-


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Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 19:04:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ozone hole Splits
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:19 PM 30/09/2002 -0400, you wrote:

>Hey All,
>
>Doing my usual morning news round-up online, and came across this on 
>news.com.au. Hopefully this
>could be the beginning of the end for the Ozone Hole :o)
>
>http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5203527%255E1702,00.html

My gut feeling is the polar vortex isn't as stable as in previous years, 
allowing mixing between the polar and temperate air masses in the 
stratosphere.  The result would be a smaller ozone hole with different 
properties to the usual.

I'll be very interested to see next year's readings.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com


</x-flowed>
From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 19:18:00 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


David,
         I agree with your post. Here in Broadford, we are on H2O
restrictions, including NON WATERING of lawns. Since the start of last
summer, I have saved all dishwashing water for the lawn, and carried it out
in buckets. I wrang the local water authority about this, and they said that
if you can prove you are recycling waste water, there is not an issue.
    How do you prove that to an officious inspector if one comes along
checking a neighbours complaint?? (I have told neighbours for months about
the buckets to save their water bills).
My few cents worth.
Peter (Didjman)
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 9:33 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels


>
> >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 21:02:35 +0930
> >From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> >Subject: aus-wx: water restrictions for melb.
> >
> >heard on the news tonight melbourne's about to officially go onto water
> >restrictions, I wonder if this setup coming through wed-thurs\sun-mon can
> >delay things a bit, probably hardly make a dent anyway, better to bite
th=
> >e
> >bullet now, god only knows what the future holds.
> >
> >just out of interest, does anyone have historical data for the last
20-30=
> >yrs
> >on melbs. water restrictions?, when and for how long.
>
> Richard this is typical media hyperbole. The trigger point for
restrictions
> in Melbourne in October is 52% and the reservoirs are at 54.1%... 2% might
> not sound like much but it is. The trigger point for November is 54%, so
we
> could conceivably go into restriction a month from now if we have next to
no
> rain this month (but October is one of our wettest months around
Melbourne).
> Further details on the % triggers can be found at
> http://www.melbournewater.com.au/system/navsearch.asp
> Looking at these, I would expect the crunch period for restrictions to be
> -December-January when the cut-off is 53-52%. A very dry October-November
> could see our dams approaching these values.
>
> As for bringing restriction in earlier, personally I think that is just
> silly. These restriction levels are well thought out trigger levels based
on
> history; bringing them in earlier would just amount to scaremongering.
>
> Philosophically, I don't agree with the way restrictions are imposed as
they
> ignore the most wasteful water practices in our society. For example, why
> should home owners be able to purchase top loading washing machines which
> use ~200 litres of water per load while a front loader will do the same
job
> with half as many litres. The same goes for water saving shower heads,
dual
> flush toilets, dish washers etc (BTW I have water tanks, dual flush
toilets,
> a water saving dish washers, a front loading washing machine, and recycle
> grey water). Depriving home owners of keeping their gardens alive during
> drought seems like a silly knee jerk reaction to me.
>
> Regards,
>
> David
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.0.5
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 20:00:13 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels
From: Dale Small <x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS new-20020517
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Welcome to Brisbane folks.
Have been under (basic and season pending) restrictions here for years, with
penalties for abusers.
Works the same in Beaudesert shire where i am, the water carters are doing a
roaring trade right now.
Get used to it =)

We are a fragile world.....







From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 19:18:00 +1000
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels


David,
         I agree with your post. Here in Broadford, we are on H2O
restrictions, including NON WATERING of lawns. Since the start of last
summer, I have saved all dishwashing water for the lawn, and carried it out
in buckets. I wrang the local water authority about this, and they said that
if you can prove you are recycling waste water, there is not an issue.
    How do you prove that to an officious inspector if one comes along
checking a neighbours complaint?? (I have told neighbours for months about
the buckets to save their water bills).
My few cents worth.
Peter (Didjman)
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 9:33 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels


>
> >Date: Mon, 30 Sep 2002 21:02:35 +0930
> >From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> >Subject: aus-wx: water restrictions for melb.
> >
> >heard on the news tonight melbourne's about to officially go onto water
> >restrictions, I wonder if this setup coming through wed-thurs\sun-mon can
> >delay things a bit, probably hardly make a dent anyway, better to bite
th=
> >e
> >bullet now, god only knows what the future holds.
> >
> >just out of interest, does anyone have historical data for the last
20-30=
> >yrs
> >on melbs. water restrictions?, when and for how long.
>
> Richard this is typical media hyperbole. The trigger point for
restrictions
> in Melbourne in October is 52% and the reservoirs are at 54.1%... 2% might
> not sound like much but it is. The trigger point for November is 54%, so
we
> could conceivably go into restriction a month from now if we have next to
no
> rain this month (but October is one of our wettest months around
Melbourne).
> Further details on the % triggers can be found at
> http://www.melbournewater.com.au/system/navsearch.asp
> Looking at these, I would expect the crunch period for restrictions to be
> -December-January when the cut-off is 53-52%. A very dry October-November
> could see our dams approaching these values.
>
> As for bringing restriction in earlier, personally I think that is just
> silly. These restriction levels are well thought out trigger levels based
on
> history; bringing them in earlier would just amount to scaremongering.
>
> Philosophically, I don't agree with the way restrictions are imposed as
they
> ignore the most wasteful water practices in our society. For example, why
> should home owners be able to purchase top loading washing machines which
> use ~200 litres of water per load while a front loader will do the same
job
> with half as many litres. The same goes for water saving shower heads,
dual
> flush toilets, dish washers etc (BTW I have water tanks, dual flush
toilets,
> a water saving dish washers, a front loading washing machine, and recycle
> grey water). Depriving home owners of keeping their gardens alive during
> drought seems like a silly knee jerk reaction to me.
>
> Regards,
>
> David
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Bloody scary stuff
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 20:21:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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face="Times New Roman" size=4>&nbsp;<FONT face=Arial size=2>Now. This is bloody 
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</FONT><FONT face=courier size=4><PRE>IDV22000

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

Priority Fire Weather Warning
Issued at 1636 on Tuesday the 1st of October 2002 for Wednesday 2 October 2002

Fire Danger will be extreme on Wednesday 2 October in the Mallee, Wimmera,
Northern Country and North Central districts.



CFA advises people living in areas at risk of fire to activate their bush fire
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=4>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sorry about that gang
Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 22:39:21 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Oct 2002 12:39:22.0012 (UTC) FILETIME=[913D8DC0:01C26947]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>No probs mate!<BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV><BR><BR><BR>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: David Hart <DHART at THEWORLD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Sorry about that gang 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 00:02:32 -0400 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I was replying to someone who was not able to send mail to the list. The 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;old "reply" button sent it to the whole list. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-dkh- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: <a href='http://g.msn.com/1HM1ENAU/c144??PS=47575'>Click Here</a><br></html>
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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 202.12.87.169
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Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 22:55:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne water restriction levels
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 07:18 PM 1/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>David,
>          I agree with your post. Here in Broadford, we are on H2O
>restrictions, including NON WATERING of lawns. Since the start of last
>summer, I have saved all dishwashing water for the lawn, and carried it out
>in buckets. I wrang the local water authority about this, and they said that
>if you can prove you are recycling waste water, there is not an issue.

Well, the most severe restrictions I can recall were in Woodend during the 
1982 drought.  For several months, we were restricted to 60l per 
person/day.  Baths were shared, that water was then recycled into the 
washing, then used to water the garden.  Couldn't afford to let anything go 
to waste, and had to read the meter each day to make sure we stayed under 
the limit.  From memory, these restrictions were in force for the spring 
and summer, until the drought broke in March/April 1983.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com


</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 22:59:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bloody scary stuff
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 08:21 PM 1/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>  Now. This is bloody scary. Victoria at the start of October with these 
> warnings.
>People forget. Ash Wednesday again? I Damn well hope not.....

I was close to the Mt Macedon Ash Wednesday fires and will never forget 
that day, or the ones that followed.  I was off school, because they deemed 
it unsafe to take buses through, and on one of those days I helped Dad and 
local contractors install temporary power for people burnt out and starting 
to rebuild.  Later in the day, we went to Aireys Inlet to arrange a new 
fire station (Dad was in the property section of the CFA), and the 
devastation there was total as well.

I was thinking only this morning that this year is like the lead up to Ash 
Wednesday.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com


</x-flowed>
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Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 23:25:47 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Featured image of the month
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/features/200210.htm 
1st September 2001 including the LP supercell near Wyong

linked from this page

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html  further down

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: September 2002
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 13:07:00 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Greetings Everyone:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; For your 
interest/contrast/comparison, here are the totals for Mena, Arkansas for 
September 2002:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">AVG. HIGH: 86.0F(30.0C)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">AVG. LOW: 61.9F(16.6C)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; High: 
95F(35.0C) Sep. 3, 6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Low: 
46F(7.7C) Sep. 24</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">RAIN FOR MONTH: 3.30IN(83.8 
mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
(-1.70IN/-43.1 mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">RAIN FOR YEAR: 46.20IN(1,173.4 
mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face="Copperplate Gothic Bold">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
(+4.00IN/+101.6 mm)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here's wishing all of you a Safe &amp; Happy month 
of October. Happy Storm Chasing. I suppose our temps may be a little 
similar--except yoours are on the upswing and ours are on the decrease. 
Enjoy&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Craig Arthur" <carthur at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Featured image of the month
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 06:55:59 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I just wish I'd had a camera with me on that day!

I know several other people wish I did too!

Nice photos Jimmy.

Craig


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 11:25 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Featured image of the month


> http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/features/200210.htm
> 1st September 2001 including the LP supercell near Wyong
>
> linked from this page
>
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html  further down
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Please note the change to my new e-mail
> address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2002 08:00:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Featured image of the month
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Craig

Thanks for the comments and I think all the others who took the photos also 
appreciate them. Yes I know the situation Craig and I know the culprits as 
well...... And I also found out there was someone else with a video camera 
on that day with you???

Jimmy Deguara

At 06:55 AM 2/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>I just wish I'd had a camera with me on that day!
>
>I know several other people wish I did too!
>
>Nice photos Jimmy.
>
>Craig
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 11:25 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Featured image of the month
>
>
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/features/200210.htm
> > 1st September 2001 including the LP supercell near Wyong
> >
> > linked from this page
> >
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/index.html  further down
> >
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Please note the change to my new e-mail
> > address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
> > -----------------------------------------
> > Jimmy Deguara
> > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> >
> > from
> > Schofields, Sydney
> > NSW Australia
> >
> > e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > Web Page with Michael Bath
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> > http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> >
> > Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> >  message.
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>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Bloody scary stuff
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 08:08:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I was 
explaining to my daughter just the other day of the real possibility of an Ash 
Wednesday repeat. Rember the big fire near Puckapunyal this year? It got to 
within 12 klms of here before the wind change. At the time, my daughter found it 
amusing seeing us put important stuff in the cars. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Things are not looking good.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 01, 2002 8:21 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Bloody scary stuff</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial><!--************* START OF STANDARD BUREAU HEADER ******--><!--************* MAP  FOR  NAVIGATION BAR *************--><MAP 
  name=navigation_bar><AREA title=Home shape=RECT alt=Home coords=20,6,85,65 
    href="/index.shtml"><AREA 
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    coords=175,51,290,66 href="/weather/"><AREA 
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    alt="Bureau Contacts, Charter, Organisation, Programs, WMO" 
    coords=582,33,641,47 href="/inside/"><AREA title="Help - FAQs, Glossary" 
    shape=RECT alt="Help - FAQs, Glossary" coords=472,16,508,29 
    href="/help/"><AREA title="Search the site for words or phrases" shape=RECT 
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  face="Times New Roman" size=4>&nbsp;<FONT face=Arial size=2>Now. This is 
  bloody scary. Victoria at the start of October with these warnings. 
  </FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=2>People forget. Ash Wednesday again? I Damn 
  well hope not.......</FONT></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Ben Tichborne" <tich at netaccess.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 10:15:56 +1200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com




> Simon..
> Don't believe everything you hear.
> First of all,I assume you are referring to Sunday afternoon,
> 2nd - Sutton forest is near Bowral - Mittagong and quite a distance from
> Goulburn. 3rd - the 3 pm temps in both Bowral and Moss Vale were 11
> degrees.(In goulburn it was 12) and in Moss Vale it fell to 9 at 4pm -
> hardly "snow" temps. Bowral did report past storm at 6 pm. A friend who
> was in Bowral playing golf told me there was a fair bit of small hail as
> the storm passed around 4-4.30 but nothing unusual for such an event.
> Snow remains the most mis-reported meteorological phenomenon in
> Australia... more so even than the famous "mini tornado"! So, as a
> weather list, let's not encourage this. Cheers, Don White

  I think it gets mis-reported when people are passing through an area and
see a coating of white on the ground, but only after the frozen stuff has
stopped falling. They then assume it's snow. The majority of people would
most probably know the difference between hail and snow when it's falling,
but fewer probably recognise the difference when it's on the ground. (you
have to look closely) Another sign distinguishing snow and hail is the
location of the fall - snow usually settles above a certain altitude, while
hail is less discriminatory about altitude. However, (especially this time
of the year in SE Australia and NZ), heavy thunder and hailstorms may quite
possibly lower the temperature of the air where they hit, locally lowering
freezing levels for a time, allowing snow to fall to lower levels than
expected.

  It seems likely that the changeable weather affecting SE Australia and NZ
is set to continue for some time - blame El NIno or more likely some other
cause. One thing that irritates me a bit about the media reporting on
weather events is that when they cover a wintry outbreak this time of the
year in SE Oz and NZ , they often refer to it as the 'last gasp of winter'.
And guess what happens a few weeks later - another wintry blast (just as
cold as the previous one) strikes.

Ben
Christchurch
NZ

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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: fire weather
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 08:51:36 +1000 
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2655.55)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 20:21:23 +1000
>From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>Subject: aus-wx: Bloody scary stuff
>Now. This is bloody scary. Victoria at the start of October with these =
>warnings.=20
>People forget. Ash Wednesday again? I Damn well hope not.....

This is the second such warning in two weeks, but hopefully conditions won't
be as bad as last time (that was the Sunday when the fire broke out near
Cape Otway and in the upper Yarra). My understanding is that northern
Victoria has observed crown fires even in June, so extreme fire danger in
October (which distinctly uncomfortable), is probably not that rare. 

BTW further to my post earlier in the week, the progs are showing a
convergence towards a significant trough/low developing through central Vic
in the coming two days (eg NOGAPS at
http://152.80.49.205/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_ausnz&prod=
prp ) This type of system is the "almost-classic" heavy rain producer for
central Victoria. This is certainly one to watch. I wouldn't be surprised to
see 25-50mm falls in the topographically favored central areas IF this
eventuates. Also... watch for a strong front early next week...

Regards,

David


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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 09:50:11 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2616
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


"  I think it gets mis-reported when people are passing through an area
and see a coating of white on the ground, but only after the frozen
stuff has stopped falling. They then assume it's snow. The majority of
people would most probably know the difference between hail and snow
when it's falling, but fewer probably recognise the difference when it's
on the ground. (you have to look closely) Another sign distinguishing
snow and hail is the location of the fall - snow usually settles above a
certain altitude, while hail is less discriminatory about altitude.
However, (especially this time of the year in SE Australia and NZ),
heavy thunder and hailstorms may quite possibly lower the temperature of
the air where they hit, locally lowering freezing levels for a time,
allowing snow to fall to lower levels than expected."

What about Sago? Is that snow or hail :) 

James Holbeach

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ben
Tichborne
Sent: Wednesday, 2 October 2002 8:16 AM
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664



> Simon..
> Don't believe everything you hear.
> First of all,I assume you are referring to Sunday afternoon,
> 2nd - Sutton forest is near Bowral - Mittagong and quite a distance
from
> Goulburn. 3rd - the 3 pm temps in both Bowral and Moss Vale were 11
> degrees.(In goulburn it was 12) and in Moss Vale it fell to 9 at 4pm -
> hardly "snow" temps. Bowral did report past storm at 6 pm. A friend
who
> was in Bowral playing golf told me there was a fair bit of small hail
as
> the storm passed around 4-4.30 but nothing unusual for such an event.
> Snow remains the most mis-reported meteorological phenomenon in
> Australia... more so even than the famous "mini tornado"! So, as a
> weather list, let's not encourage this. Cheers, Don White

  I think it gets mis-reported when people are passing through an area
and
see a coating of white on the ground, but only after the frozen stuff
has
stopped falling. They then assume it's snow. The majority of people
would
most probably know the difference between hail and snow when it's
falling,
but fewer probably recognise the difference when it's on the ground.
(you
have to look closely) Another sign distinguishing snow and hail is the
location of the fall - snow usually settles above a certain altitude,
while
hail is less discriminatory about altitude. However, (especially this
time
of the year in SE Australia and NZ), heavy thunder and hailstorms may
quite
possibly lower the temperature of the air where they hit, locally
lowering
freezing levels for a time, allowing snow to fall to lower levels than
expected.

  It seems likely that the changeable weather affecting SE Australia and
NZ
is set to continue for some time - blame El NIno or more likely some
other
cause. One thing that irritates me a bit about the media reporting on
weather events is that when they cover a wintry outbreak this time of
the
year in SE Oz and NZ , they often refer to it as the 'last gasp of
winter'.
And guess what happens a few weeks later - another wintry blast (just as
cold as the previous one) strikes.

Ben
Christchurch
NZ

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 10:01:56 +1000
Organization: The Weather Co.
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627
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> What about Sago? Is that snow or hail :) 
> James Holbeach

Hail.

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 11:01:49 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


and we always called it sago snow when I was in a kid in Canberra......


Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, 2 October 2002 10:01
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #1664


> > What about Sago? Is that snow or hail :)
> > James Holbeach
>
> Hail.
>
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From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Louisiana Hurricane season
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 20:12:46 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I came across 
this off-beat look at Louisiana's Hurricane Season(Procedures &amp; 
Precautions). I thought it was pretty good. The web address is: <A 
href="http://www.debsfunpages.com/hurricane.htm">http://www.debsfunpages.com/hurricane.htm</A> 
. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Enjoy &amp; 
have a good week&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2002 10:27:27 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Louisiana Hurricane season
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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That's a good page! Thanks Dave.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 20:12:46 -0500
Subject: aus-wx: Louisiana Hurricane season

> Hello All:
>        I came across this off-beat look at Louisiana's Hurricane
> Season(Procedures & Precautions). I thought it was pretty good. The web
> address is: http://www.debsfunpages.com/hurricane.htm . 
>        Enjoy & have a good week      yours      David Powell
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NE NSW storms 23/9
Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2002 21:33:54 -0500
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I LOVE time-lapse movies and that was a super one!!! Well done!!!
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 4:46 AM
Subject: aus-wx: NE NSW storms 23/9


> Hi all,
>
> Some impressive storms on the NSW North Coast this afternoon. Probably
some
> severe weather about, but only reports of small hail and intense rain at
> this stage.
>
> One cell managed to develop right in front of the webcam, so I've uploaded
> a small movie file if you'd like to see:
> It's 412km in size and covers the period from 3.22pm to 4.55pm. It is a
> good one to loop over and over :)
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/video/webcam/2002/0923mb01.mpg
>
> cheers, Michael
>
>
>
>   ==================================================================
>   Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges    co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   North Coast NSW   webmaster:    http://lightningphotography.com/
>   Australia         co-webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>           Australian Severe Weather Association president
>   ==================================================================
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2002 17:24:07 +1000
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Niangala Tornado (NSW) - Oct 13
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Grabbed this link from the weatherzone forum:

http://tamworth.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=news&subclass=local&story_id=185171&category=general%20news&m=10&y=2002

Looks like we got footage/photos of a tornadic storm  from a distance
!!! Niangala is SE of Tamworth.. ill try and look it up on
whereis.com.au later.... If anyone wants to come along on saturday to
try and find a damage track, let me know as I may head up.
Photograph in the link above of the damaged house looks like the tornado
was F2, maybe stronger.
Photos etc from James Harris will be up at www.sydneystormchasers.com
later this evening when he gets back from work.
I must say.. its a pretty good feeling when a tornado occurs less than 1
hours drive from your original target area, even if you didnt see it!

Matthew Smith

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User-Agent: Microsoft-Entourage/10.1.0.2006
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2002 22:24:02 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Mildura obs
From: Greg Stewart <gregstewart at mac.com>
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


02/10 17:30  NNW  10  16  28.8  -22.8  2  47.2 (Very High)  0.0  1012.5

Just in case anyone is interested......2% humidity -22.8 dew point.  Is this
some sort of record?


Greg Stewart


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From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: September Averages
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2002 22:34:20 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Only managed to scrape together 35mm of rain 
in&nbsp;the old gauge&nbsp;for September... the lowest amount&nbsp;I've 
recorded&nbsp;so far since I&nbsp;got my&nbsp;wx station.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>September's readings from my wx station (in 
Morphett Vale, SA) can be found here if anyone is interested :&nbsp;<A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumseptember2002.htm">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumseptember2002.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 09:30:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Morning all,

Will be interesting to monitor this situation for the next few
days.....especially with cyclogenesis over our part of the world.  The drier
low levels (below 650hPa) that were evident over Mt Gambier yesterday
morning in the sounding had reached Melbourne by last night, with mid-level
moisture remaining between 650 and 300hPa.

21:34 UTC, 02/10/2002
AREA FORECAST 022300 TO 031100 AREAS 30/32

OVERVIEW:
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING SOUTHERLY TO W OF TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR
NARACOORTE/PORTLAND 05Z, MILDURA/KING ISLAND 11Z. PATCHY RAIN W OF
 RENMARK/KING ISLAND EXTENDING SLOWLY EASTWARD TO W OF BALRANALD/FLIKI BY
05Z AND W OF 148E BY 11Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NE OF
HAY/MANSFIELD/DELEGATE AFTER 04Z, MAINLY RANGES.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2002 10:26:12 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hurricane Lili bears down on Louisiana
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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Lili is already Category 4 which makes it the most powerful Hurricane to 
hit the Gulf states coast in at least 20 years (can anyone find the 
exact records please?).
We need to pray that the people living in those low-lying coastlands of 
Louisiana will obey the authorities and get out in time, or the toll 
there could be high.
I have just finished adding links to some text-only local NWS warning 
pages to my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm as it is 
receiving many hits from the US right now.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall data
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 16:42:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have posted a summary of monthly rainfall data at 
my house at</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://users.bigpond.net.au/keithb/Index.html">http://users.bigpond.net.au/keithb/Index.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 18:49:52 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


There is a virus which is not from Clyve or his address but has used his
name.  Don't open them - delete them.

Titled Re:aus-wx: Can the ASWA please teach newsreaders.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Moning Glory
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 18:25:23 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Hi all,
Just wondering if anyone else got this post from David Hart as it didn't
arrive in my Aussie-wx folder, I found it buried in my normal emails .. it's
good reading.

:)

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Hart" <dhart at theworld.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2002 4:53 AM


> Received: from TheWorld.com (pcls1.std.com [199.172.62.103])
> by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id LAA08519
> for <aussie-weather at facteur.std.com>; Mon, 30 Sep 2002 11:44:22 -0400
(EDT)
> Received: from hotmail.com (f86.sea2.hotmail.com [207.68.165.86])
> by TheWorld.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id LAA08311
> for <aussie-weather at world.std.com>; Mon, 30 Sep 2002 11:44:21 -0400
> Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC;
> Mon, 30 Sep 2002 08:44:16 -0700
> Received: from 144.138.103.22 by sea2fd.sea2.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP;
> Mon, 30 Sep 2002 15:44:14 GMT
> X-Originating-IP: [144.138.103.22]
> From: "Robert Goler" <robs_dream2 at hotmail.com>
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Gulf Line field experiment
> Date: Tue, 01 Oct 2002 01:44:14 +1000
> Mime-Version: 1.0
> Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed
> Message-ID: <F86hdlml0TDLMYOxZ4M000054b6 at hotmail.com>
> X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Sep 2002 15:44:16.0105 (UTC)
FILETIME=[3B6C0D90:01C26898]
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
>
>
> Hi all
>
> Just thought I'd mention that I'm currently in Karumba (northern Qld)
> involved in the Gulf Line field experiment. (I = Robert Goler)
>
> For those not in the know, this is a field experiment involving people
from
> Monash Uni in Melbourne (where I'm from), people from the BoM and people
> from the University of Munich in Germany.  We're all here to collect data
> from weather stations, pilot balloons, and radiosondes to study the
morning
> glory around the southern Cape York Peninsula, and the north Australian
> cloud line over the northern peninsula.  There is no mobile coverage up
> here, so I'll occasionally post an email or two on the list when something
> interesting happens. For some basic info about what these cloud lines look
> like, see here:
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Thesis/introduction.html
>
> I arrived on Sunday with a fellow student after driving all the way up
from
> Melbourne leaving Wednesday.  Had to drive up with Monash Uni's 4wd as we
> had to take a whole load of equipment up with us.  The trip was pretty
> uneventful, ie no break downs or fatal encounters with wildlife...although
> quite a few bugs got up close and personal with the windshield.  The most
> exciting parts were the dust filled skies around Jerilderie on Wednesday,
> and coming into Goondiwindi on Thursday night where we did see some
distant
> lightning further to the north.
> For the record we stayed the night at West Wyalong, Goondiwindi,
Rockhampton
> (a real dodgey place!) and Townsville, and sampled what nightlife they had
> on offer...hence the late starts the following morning...hehe!
>
> In Karumba we've had southerlies the past 2 days as a cold front passed
> through early on Sunday morning. However conditions should be ok for the
> next few days for morning glories to form, so hopefully something exciting
> will happen!
>
> Cheers,
>
> Robert
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Join the world^Òs largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail.
> http://www.hotmail.com
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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X-Sender: meso at pop.iprimus.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2002 19:01:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Mal Ninnes <meso at iprimus.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting - Saturday 12th October
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Oct 2002 09:00:44.0498 (UTC) FILETIME=[5B6B4320:01C26ABB]
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Hello aussie-weather people,

The next NSW ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday, 12th of October.
Venue:     The Weather Company, 7 West St, North Sydney.
Time:      7pm
Parking:   Free in the streets around the TWC building.
Press the 'Weather21' buzzer to be let in.

Agenda:
* Discussion, photos & video of Friday 27th Sept Sydney evening storms, and
  the Sept 18/19 windstorms, plus other recent events
* Discussion about Thunder Down Under this year
* ASWA polo shirts will be for sale for $25 each, along with hats and stickers
* Storm News update
* ASWA committee update
* Current weather analysis by Matthew Pearce

If you have any video/slides/photos/charts, etc that you'd like to show at
this meeting, please bring it along.  We usually order pizza as well, so
bring a few dollars for that :)

Friends and relatives are welcome - come along and discuss the weather!

See you there,
Malcolm Ninnes and Matthew Pearce
NSW ASWA State Reps



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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 19:04:56 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


got it twice, NAV stopped it though.

Cheers
---------------------------------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------------------
Member of:
Australian Severe Weather Association.
www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------------------------
This email is virus free.
Scanned before leaving my mailbox
using Norton Antivirus 2002 for Win2k
Scanned with the latest definition File.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 03, 2002 6:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm


> There is a virus which is not from Clyve or his address but has used his
> name.  Don't open them - delete them.
>
> Titled Re:aus-wx: Can the ASWA please teach newsreaders.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.0.5
Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2002 19:11:12 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm
From: Dale Small <x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS new-20020517
X-Razor-id: 8cfa9285772ed4eb9126592f9ea1b088b9dcbed9
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Thankyou Jane.

Simon (Can-Wx) has recieved a few so im led to believe, looks like we better
ALL have a close look at our systems again,
Warnings are running rife in #weather chat.
Luckily, operating a mac im not remotely susceptible to these, but now that
i have spoken up, if my mail server is alerting to me to virii/trojans, i
wont be such a nice person as i am now.

Cmon everyone, lets sort this crap out now before this mailing list
dissolves.

Turn the bloody html coding off and get on with business.
The experienced will KNOW that html coding will harbour virii and trojans,
if it will take less than a minute of your time to disable it before posting
to the list, it will save a hell of a lot of anger, frustration, computers
and ill feeling directed to the aus-wx mailing list, where it is not
rightfully deserved.

Its simple, and isnt restricted to this mailing list only.

Regards
Dale
X









From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 18:49:52 +1000
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm


There is a virus which is not from Clyve or his address but has used his
name.  Don't open them - delete them.

Titled Re:aus-wx: Can the ASWA please teach newsreaders.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: Virus
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 19:51:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Dale wrote:
<snip>
Turn the bloody html coding off and get on with business.
<snip>


Clyve's computer didn't send this virus to anyone - the address that the
email came from is not his - it's a fake.

The virus creates the code and forms the attachment (if any) - and then
sends it out from an unrelated computer.  That's why the sending email
addresses are always wrong.


Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Virus and Clyve
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 20:37:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I would never doubt anything Clyve ever sent. What 
a knowledgeable man !!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If he would ever try to virus effect anyone !! A 
man who freely gives out information in a term I can understand. Rock on Clyve 
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>CLYVE is not infected !!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Trying to learn
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 20:40:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A low forming/swirling in the SW of Victoria 
ATM?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Trying to learn
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 21:23:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Bussy,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Spot on! It is clearly depicted on the radar / tracker. The wrap around is in 
SA.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter (Didjman)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 03, 2002 8:40 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Trying to learn</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A low forming/swirling in the SW of Victoria 
  ATM?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 21:37:47 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Amazing 'rotation' showing up on the radar tonight over western Victoria
and southeastern SA, with lightning tracker showing storms along the
cloudbands wrapping into the circulation!! The cloudband through the
west of the state (from Mildura and south) is only moving east v. e. r.
y slowly.

Nick Sykes and Paul Yole are out there somewhere!!


Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------







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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: September Averages
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 22:19:57 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report
X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - server1.ns4ua.com
X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com
X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0]
X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>That's&nbsp;a downpour !!.&nbsp; I have not had 35mm since 
July 1 to date. That being said this dry is the most acute I have seen. I have 
seen longer term dry spells with more rain, but nothing matching the last three 
months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=stargazer at picknowl.com.au 
  href="mailto:stargazer at picknowl.com.au">Stargazer</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 02, 2002 11:04 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: September 
  Averages</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Only managed to scrape together 35mm of rain 
  in&nbsp;the old gauge&nbsp;for September... the lowest amount&nbsp;I've 
  recorded&nbsp;so far since I&nbsp;got my&nbsp;wx station.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>September's readings from my wx station (in 
  Morphett Vale, SA) can be found here if anyone is interested :&nbsp;<A 
  href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumseptember2002.htm">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer/monthsumseptember2002.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>:)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
  href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 23:00:08 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


We got our first storm today at about 3pm. Lightning 
was only every 10 secs or so mainly, but very 
spectacular, with several Cg crawlers. Heavy rain 
accompanied the storm. Another storm moved 
through about 45 mins later.
Just on dusk, very quick development formed along 
the trough line and wrapped around the low. Some 
heavy storms were evident on radar just to my SW 
near Dartmoor, from here the lightning was quite 
spectacular again. At about 8pm we got our 3rd storm, 
not as much lightning but some pea-sized hail was 
recieved. Since then only the occaisional shower.

Tim Eckert
Hamilton
SW Victoria


---- Original message ----
>Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 21:37:47 +1000
>From: "Jane ONeill" 
<cadence at stormchasers.au.com>  
>Subject: aus-wx: SE Aust trough  
>To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>
>Amazing 'rotation' showing up on the radar tonight 
over western Victoria
>and southeastern SA, with lightning tracker showing 
storms along the
>cloudbands wrapping into the circulation!! The 
cloudband through the
>west of the state (from Mildura and south) is only 
moving east v. e. r.
>y slowly.
>
>Nick Sykes and Paul Yole are out there somewhere!!
>
>
>Jane
>
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
--------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2002 23:32:09 +1000
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/OddBits/MtGambier.gif

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Thu, 03 Oct 2002 23:58:09 +1000
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


The Mt Gambier sonde went all the way up to 20hPa tonight (26,500m / 87,000
feet).
http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/OddBits/MtGambier_sonde.gif

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 00:09:33 +1000
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/OddBits/MtGambier_hodo.gif
http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/OddBits/MtGambier_hodo1.gif

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 09:03:03 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Season Celebrations
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,

Just wondering if anyone did anything to celebrate the official start of
the storm season (Oct 1)???  I was in Sydney and we had a BBQ with a few
friends at Matt Pearce's (it was also going to be the night before I
went back to Brisbane).  Realising that it coincided with the night
before storm season I couldn't resist the temptation to buy a cake. 
Needless to say, when I told the cake shop what to write on it, I got a
very weird and surprised look and reaction...I have no idea, what's so
unusual about the writing on the cake??? 

http://www.downunderchase.com/anthony/HappyStormSeason.jpg
(James Harris is the person in the photo - sorry James!)

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Drool on....
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 09:30:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.stormchasing.com/">http://www.stormchasing.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "David Carroll" <davidkc at hotkey.net.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: off topic - Bob Jane t-marts 1000
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 09:53:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>HI all, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Just curious how many people might be 
heading to Bathurst for the car races next week.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>I will be operating a UHF CB on CH 25 if 
anyone heads to Bathurst and is also armed with a radio scanner. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>Please email me off list</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" size=2>David<BR>Mt Panorama Frequency Page<BR><A 
href="http://www.hotkey.net.au/~davidkc">http://www.hotkey.net.au/~davidkc</A><BR>ICQ 
64538477</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Morning glory
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 10:19:51 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This report from Robert Goler in the Gulf Country......................


We have had morning glories pass over Karumba from the northeast yesterday
and this morning, and they were markedly different.  The morning glory that
passed yesterday did not have any cloud when it went over us, and so it was
only noticeable by its wind gusts.  The wind was originally from the
southeast, and then it changed at around 3am to be gusting to around 15
knots from the northeast - the onset of the morning glory.  This lasted a
couple of minutes, and then the wind settled down, until another gust came.
3 gusts in all passed over us.

The morning glory for this morning was quite spectacular with at least 15
cloud lines passing overhead.  The broad scale cloud could be seen in the
normal lo-res satellite imagery available on the net.  We awoke at 5am and
the first cloud line had already passed.  Everything outside was wet, with
water literally dripping off the cars due to the high humidity of the air
associated with the morning glory.  We tracked a few balloons to observe the
wind speed and direction until 8am when the last of the cloud lines passed
through.  The hi-res sat pics also showed a morning glory coming from the
south, but located west of Karumba.

One of the goals of this experiment is to verify model forecasts from a
high-resolution version of LAPS which is used to forecast the Gulf cloud
lines. The forecast for today was for the convergence line associated with
the sea breezes to pass over Karumba at 6am.  As a result, we set our alarms
to wake up at 5am to give us time to set up the equipment to take
observations.  However, the morning glory is a wave system which moves
faster than the convergence line, and so propagates ahead of it.  This is
why we were caught out this morning, with the leading cloud of the morning
glory already having passed us when we awoke.

Tomorrow is looking not favourable for morning glories over Karumba.  There
is a trough to the south which is forecast to pass through tomorrow morning,
putting us into southeasterlies.  This would mean that one would need to be
out in the Gulf to observe it.


Cheers

Robert




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 08:58:42 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Interestingly enough, I have not received any to this address, but I 
have received them to my other address, so the infected computer has my 
Doctor Disk address in its address book, but may not have my ICS address.
That is likely to be true of very few people on this list.
So, check your address books!
And everybody, please, every day, always keep your anti-virus software 
up to date.  
I had received two copies of the Bugbear worm (and recognised it as an 
unknown worm so I didn't get infected) before it was reported to the 
anti-virus companies on 30th September.  We must be always vigilant.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 18:49:52 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: DON'T OPEN EMAILS FROM CLYVE HERBERT atm

> There is a virus which is not from Clyve or his address but has used
> his
> name.  Don't open them - delete them.
> 
> Titled Re:aus-wx: Can the ASWA please teach newsreaders.
> 
> Jane
> 
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 11:06:05 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This is a great forecast & the satpics tell the story of the main centre
over the NW of the state!!
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/10040930vicvis.gif

22:50 UTC, 03/10/2002
AMEND AREA FORECAST 032230 TO 041100 AREAS 30/32

AMD OVERVIEW:
 LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER VICTORIA, MAIN CENTRE NEAR WARRACKNABEAL 23Z,
MANGALORE 05Z, MANSFIELD 11Z, BUT 60NM TO N AT 18500FT. WINDS
 GENERALLY CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND LOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF
143E AND ALSO ALONG RANGES, MAINLY AFTER 03Z. RAIN AREAS ON AND S OF THE
RANGES AND DEVELOPING REMAINDER E OF 144E AFTER 03Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINDER. AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
 SEA/COAST/RANGES AND IN PRECIPITATION.

AMD WIND:
 CLOCKWISE WINDS ABOUT LOW CENTRE [SEE OVERVIEW FOR POSITION]
  2000       5000     7000        10000           14000              18500
  VRB/20  VRB/20  VRB/25  VRB/30 MS06  VRB/30 MS14  VRB/30 MS23
REMARKS:
 WIND ALL LEVELS VRB/15 WITHIN 80NM OF MAIN LOW CENTRE.

AMD CLOUD:
 SCT CB 4000/30000 E OF 143E AND ALSO ALONG RANGES, MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
 BKN ST 0600/3000 SEA/COAST/RANGES AND IN PRECIPITATION.
 BKN CUSC 3000/8000, WITH SCT CU TOPS TO 15000 AFTER 02Z.
 AREAS BKN ACAS ABV 10000, SCT IN NW.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

User-Agent: Microsoft-Outlook-Express-Macintosh-Edition/5.0.5
Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 11:34:18 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: (Off topic) Bugbear virus
From: Dale Small <x4y2z5c1v4b7x at overflow.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS new-20020517
X-Razor-id: 110bb544742bda7d3e0048c0b0712416531cc64a
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hello again everyone

I have emailed Jane privately with an apology for the rather strongly worded
post last night, bought upon by a spam attack to this machine, from various
email addresses, containing this virus.

Some information about the bugbear, and this is a wild virus, highly
damaging to users so please do all you can to obtain the latest virus
definitions, my contacts are telling me that as i type this, mail and web
systems across australia and around the world are being shut down as a
result of very rapid replication. Just a little information about this, if
it is way off topic to the list, could the owners please notify me
personally and sort the situation out that way.

The information below has been snipped directly from Symantecs website and i
suggest you have a look at the information in further detail, i will not
create a massive email for this list.

http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/w32.bugbear at mm.html

Please do all you can to prevent infection, this is a very dangerous piece
of work and has to be knocked on the head quickly


Regards
Dale

---

W32.Bugbear at mm is a mass-mailing worm. It can also spread through network
shares. It has keystroke-logging and backdoor capabilities. The worm also
attempts to terminate the processes of various antivirus and firewall
programs.

Because the worm does not properly handle the network resource types, it may
flood shared printer resources, which causes them to print garbage or
disrupt their normal functionality.

It is written in the Microsoft Visual C++ 6 programming language and is
compressed with UPX v0.76.1-1.22.


Also Known As: W32/Bugbear-A [Sophos], WORM_BUGBEAR.A [Trend], Win32.Bugbear
[CA], W32/Bugbear at MM [McAfee], I-Worm.Tanatos [AVP], W32/Bugbear [Panda],
Tanatos [F-Secure] 
Type: Worm 
Infection Length: 50,688 bytes
Systems Affected: Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows NT, Windows 2000, Windows
XP, Windows Me 
Systems Not Affected: Macintosh, Unix, Linux
CVE References: CVE-2001-0154


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From: David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting article
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 14:13:35 +1000
User-Agent: KMail/1.4.3
X-Davsoft-MailScanner: Found to be clean
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/greenhouse-02l.html

- -- 
If you give someone a program, you will frustrate them for a day. If you teach 
them how to program, you will frustrate them for a lifetime.

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.0.7 (GNU/Linux)

iD8DBQE9nRVvZOfFgbBAbXARAov/AKCQQVoqynorlqqGkG4JCl04W1J44ACfed6J
f3Ky17gRydhMhs5gMtUDmJ0=
=Cdqv
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne storms
Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 14:49:23 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Oct 2002 04:49:23.0983 (UTC) FILETIME=[692509F0:01C26B61]
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<x-flowed>
Hi all.

Just watching melbourne radar.  Very interesting watching the storms as they 
wrap around the low and track east to west.

Raining on and off here in Donvale, with thunder and tiny hail for the past 
hour or more.

STA out for Melbourne too.

Welcome back spring!



Liam

_________________________________________________________________
Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: "Aussie-Wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 14:59:43 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>The BoM have Issued a STA for the 
Southern tablelands and SW slopes south of the ACT * <A 
href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN28300.txt">http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN28300.txt</A> 
* </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>My weathercam is pointhing south for 
those who are interested <A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/weathercam.htm">www.canberra-wx.com/weathercam.htm</A>&nbsp;Currently 
clouded, but it is building to my north and East, and if anything does develop i 
will put my shoes on and foot chase (well walk to my lookout 50m away and sit 
and watch), lol. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Interesting propagation of the storms 
today due to the Low on the border region of Vic and NSW,&nbsp; mainly moving N 
to S.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition 
File.<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: debp at relax.com.au
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 15:32:20 +1000
X-Authentication-Warning: users.relax.com.au: nobody set sender to debp at relax.com.au using -f
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
User-Agent: IMP/PHP3 Imap webMail Program 2.0.11
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Lots of thunder in Boronia too - moderate rain but no 
hail as yet.


Quoting Liam Domanski <gashband at hotmail.com>:

> Hi all.
>
> Just watching melbourne radar.  Very interesting 
watching the storms as
> they
> wrap around the low and track east to west.
>
> Raining on and off here in Donvale, with thunder and 
tiny hail for the past
>
> hour or more.
>
> STA out for Melbourne too.
>
> Welcome back spring!
>
>
>
> Liam
>
> 
________________________________________________________
_________
> Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: 
http://messenger.msn.com
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------
------------------
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 16:45:11 +1000
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Jane

Where is that vis satpic from?

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Friday, 04 October, 2002 11:06 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
>
>
> This is a great forecast & the satpics tell the story of the main centre
> over the NW of the state!!
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/10040930vicvis.gif
>
> 22:50 UTC, 03/10/2002
> AMEND AREA FORECAST 032230 TO 041100 AREAS 30/32
>
> AMD OVERVIEW:
>  LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER VICTORIA, MAIN CENTRE NEAR WARRACKNABEAL 23Z,
> MANGALORE 05Z, MANSFIELD 11Z, BUT 60NM TO N AT 18500FT. WINDS
>  GENERALLY CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND LOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS E OF
> 143E AND ALSO ALONG RANGES, MAINLY AFTER 03Z. RAIN AREAS ON AND S OF THE
> RANGES AND DEVELOPING REMAINDER E OF 144E AFTER 03Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
> SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINDER. AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
>  SEA/COAST/RANGES AND IN PRECIPITATION.
>
> AMD WIND:
>  CLOCKWISE WINDS ABOUT LOW CENTRE [SEE OVERVIEW FOR POSITION]
>   2000       5000     7000        10000           14000              18500
>   VRB/20  VRB/20  VRB/25  VRB/30 MS06  VRB/30 MS14  VRB/30 MS23
> REMARKS:
>  WIND ALL LEVELS VRB/15 WITHIN 80NM OF MAIN LOW CENTRE.
>
> AMD CLOUD:
>  SCT CB 4000/30000 E OF 143E AND ALSO ALONG RANGES, MAINLY AFTER 03Z.
>  BKN ST 0600/3000 SEA/COAST/RANGES AND IN PRECIPITATION.
>  BKN CUSC 3000/8000, WITH SCT CU TOPS TO 15000 AFTER 02Z.
>  AREAS BKN ACAS ABV 10000, SCT IN NW.
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 19:48:20 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Hi all,
        You win some - you loose some!
After seeing exploding TCu over Puckapunyal and the vicinity of Yea around
1300, I checked the tracker to see it going off around Benalla. On asking
the family if they cared for a drive (I had already pointed out the TCu's),
we headed out after a quick call to Jane, for Euroa - initially. There was
something big to the east of the Strathbogies sporning TCu and some scud,
all tracking West. The base was very black, but any structure was obscured
by foreground cloud. We reached Euroa, and kept heading up the Hume for
Benalla from where we could see large updraughts over Bright / Mt Buffalo
area, creating all the cloud moving across Euroa / Seymour. With family on
board, we decided to head for the Glenrowan truckstop - aka "Maccas" Various
updraughts continued to spring up in a line from Mt Buffalo to Wadonga and
beyond. All up, it was a 300klm round trip to Maccas and back, but the kids
weren't complaining. I have cloud pics if anyone is interested.

P.S. 1.5 mm fell in Broadford in our absence:-))

Cheers Peter(Didjman)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 11:06 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria


> This is a great forecast & the satpics tell the story of the main centre
> over the NW of the state!!
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/10040930vicvis.gif
------------------------------


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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 19:59:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Damn. You have no idea how close this storm came to 
us/me. Black as the inside of a cow and so slow moving. I've watched it since 
4pm today when I could see it develop. Watching on radar it has just missed here 
by the smallest of margins. It was visually showing very heavy rain and lots of 
crawlers especially. Bugger, bugger, bugger........</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com">Simon 
  Angell</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 04, 2002 2:59 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: NSW STA</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi All,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>The BoM have Issued a STA for the 
  Southern tablelands and SW slopes south of the ACT * <A 
  href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN28300.txt">http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN28300.txt</A> 
  * </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>My weathercam is pointhing south 
  for those who are interested <A 
  href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/weathercam.htm">www.canberra-wx.com/weathercam.htm</A>&nbsp;Currently 
  clouded, but it is building to my north and East, and if anything does develop 
  i will put my shoes on and foot chase (well walk to my lookout 50m away and 
  sit and watch), lol. </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Interesting propagation of the 
  storms today due to the Low on the border region of Vic and NSW,&nbsp; mainly 
  moving N to S.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
  size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
  Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
  href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
  of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
  Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition 
  File.<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 20:02:42 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I've got some too, but very disappointed :-((
----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 7:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria


> Hi all,
>         You win some - you loose some!
> After seeing exploding TCu over Puckapunyal and the vicinity of Yea around
> 1300, I checked the tracker to see it going off around Benalla. On asking
> the family if they cared for a drive (I had already pointed out the
TCu's),
> we headed out after a quick call to Jane, for Euroa - initially. There was
> something big to the east of the Strathbogies sporning TCu and some scud,
> all tracking West. The base was very black, but any structure was obscured
> by foreground cloud. We reached Euroa, and kept heading up the Hume for
> Benalla from where we could see large updraughts over Bright / Mt Buffalo
> area, creating all the cloud moving across Euroa / Seymour. With family on
> board, we decided to head for the Glenrowan truckstop - aka "Maccas"
Various
> updraughts continued to spring up in a line from Mt Buffalo to Wadonga and
> beyond. All up, it was a 300klm round trip to Maccas and back, but the
kids
> weren't complaining. I have cloud pics if anyone is interested.
>
> P.S. 1.5 mm fell in Broadford in our absence:-))
>
> Cheers Peter(Didjman)
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 11:06 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
>
>
> > This is a great forecast & the satpics tell the story of the main centre
> > over the NW of the state!!
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/10040930vicvis.gif
> ------------------------------
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 20:08:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Up above! Sorry couldn't help myself. Warning. Clown at work....
Seriously though I'm interested too.
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 4:45 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Complex over Victoria


> Jane
> 
> Where is that vis satpic from?
> 
> Laurier
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 


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Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:07:09 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Here are my pics from yesterday's action out here in 
the west: http://au.geocities.com/auswxchaser/3Oct02

Also some pics of some convective activity in NE VIC 
on 27th September, and in Canberra on the 28th and 
29th: 
http://au.geocities.com/auswxchaser/Sept02

And don't forget my main weather page at:
http://au.geocities.com/timjeckert/

Cheers,
Tim Eckert
Hamilton
SW Victoria


---- Original message ----
>Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 23:00:08 +1000
>From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>  
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SE Aust trough  
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>We got our first storm today at about 3pm. Lightning 
>was only every 10 secs or so mainly, but very 
>spectacular, with several Cg crawlers. Heavy rain 
>accompanied the storm. Another storm moved 
>through about 45 mins later.
>Just on dusk, very quick development formed along 
>the trough line and wrapped around the low. Some 
>heavy storms were evident on radar just to my SW 
>near Dartmoor, from here the lightning was quite 
>spectacular again. At about 8pm we got our 3rd 
storm, 
>not as much lightning but some pea-sized hail was 
>recieved. Since then only the occaisional shower.
>
>Tim Eckert
>Hamilton
>SW Victoria
>
>
>---- Original message ----
>>Date: Thu, 3 Oct 2002 21:37:47 +1000
>>From: "Jane ONeill" 
><cadence at stormchasers.au.com>  
>>Subject: aus-wx: SE Aust trough  
>>To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>>
>>Amazing 'rotation' showing up on the radar tonight 
>over western Victoria
>>and southeastern SA, with lightning tracker showing 
>storms along the
>>cloudbands wrapping into the circulation!! The 
>cloudband through the
>>west of the state (from Mildura and south) is only 
>moving east v. e. r.
>>y slowly.
>>
>>Nick Sykes and Paul Yole are out there somewhere!!
>>
>>
>>Jane
>>
>>--------------------------------
>>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>>
>>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>>
>>ASWA - Victoria
>>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>>--------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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--
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X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 20:42:21 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Morning glory
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>This report from Robert Goler in the Gulf Country......................
>
This is very interesting stuff!  I hope we get more of these reports.  I've
read some stuff from glider pilots flying in these things and seen some
photos - it all looks very spectacular!  Maybe one of these days the ASWA
will have to organise a Morning Glory chase!

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - 'The Playpen'  at  www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - -
       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:19:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just had a quick storm go across here. One which I 
have watched for hours and now has dumped a whole 2mm and that is 
all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This storm has had lots of crawlers and no cc's or 
cg's that I know of.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Why are the strikes not going to cloud or 
ground?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Current radar
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:28:53 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Anyone else notice that anything that is west of 
Wagga is being "ignored" by radar?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sorry.
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:30:11 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Should've been I suppose a certain distance East of 
Wagga :-)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 22:08:33 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?

Also a question I would like to know the answer to...
Seems that was a common theme from the storms 
out this way... What determines whether a storm puts 
out Cc's or Cg's or crawlers?


---- Original message ----
>Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:19:25 +1000
>From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>  
>Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers  
>To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-
weather at world.std.com>
>
>Just had a quick storm go across here. One which I 
have watched for hours and now has dumped a whole 
2mm and that is all.
>This storm has had lots of crawlers and no cc's or 
cg's that I know of.
>Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
>
>Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 22:33:36 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Oct 2002 12:35:43.0248 (UTC) FILETIME=[8E161100:01C26BA2]
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<x-html>
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a month 
my computer was again disabled by some miserable little .......anyway all that, 
despite having up to date anti virus everything. Back to better things, I found 
a remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of Victoria this 
afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow tails.... I still 
cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best wishes Clyve 
Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Morning glory
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 00:20:38 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


saw a film a while ago where a guy 'surfed' the morning glory under a
paraglider.

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Bagust" <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 8:42 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Morning glory


> >This report from Robert Goler in the Gulf Country......................
> >
> This is very interesting stuff!  I hope we get more of these reports.
I've
> read some stuff from glider pilots flying in these things and seen some
> photos - it all looks very spectacular!  Maybe one of these days the ASWA
> will have to organise a Morning Glory chase!
>
> Phil
>
> Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> - - - - - - - 'The Playpen'  at  www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - -
>        "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Sat, 05 Oct 2002 00:58:44 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 10:33 PM 4/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a month my computer was again 
>disabled by some miserable little .......anyway all that, despite having 
>up to date anti virus everything. Back to better things, I found a 
>remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of Victoria this 
>afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow tails.... I 
>still cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best wishes 
>Clyve Herbert.

X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200

There's your problem.  If you want to minimise the risk, ditch Outlook 
(Virus Distributor) Express and use another program. :)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com


</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Morning glory
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 08:51:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Images of the morning glory taken this week can be found here....
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/glory.htm

Thanks to Robert Goler for forwarding them on!!

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au 
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 09:19:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Victorian weather!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>F</FONT><FONT size=2>irst images of this amazing 
beast......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Photos of the powerful Broadford supercell taken 
today at around 1630 showing the southern inflow tail the whole updraft column 
was rotating...unbelievable!!!! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - 
Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 04, 2002 10:33 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a month 
  my computer was again disabled by some miserable little .......anyway all 
  that, despite having up to date anti virus everything. Back to better things, 
  I found a remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of Victoria 
  this afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow tails.... I 
  still cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best wishes Clyve 
  Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: mbath at mail.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Sat, 05 Oct 2002 10:22:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>

Forwarded from another list I'm on !!!

http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/lili_waterspouts.jpg




>
>Attached is a picture taken offshore yesterday morning by a Seacor 
>employee as Lili approached shore.  Enjoy!
>
>-Bob Weinzapfel
>
>******************************************
>* Bob Weinzapfel                            *
>* Graduate Research Assistant       *
>* School of Meteorology,                 *
>* University of Oklahoma                 *
>* <mailto:bobwein at ou.edu>bobwein at ou.edu (405)325-8896 *
>*******************************************


  ===================================================================
  Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
  North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
  Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  ===================================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 10:30:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; This 
adds insult to injury - a supercell above my home!!! At 1630, I was in 
Glenrowan, taking the family to McDonalds after the useless chase North. The pic 
is amazing. I have captures of exploding TCu's to the north and east taken 
around 1330.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=cadence at stormchasers.au.com 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">Jane ONeill</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 9:19 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Victorian weather!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>F</FONT><FONT size=2>irst images of this amazing 
  beast......</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Photos of the powerful Broadford supercell taken 
  today at around 1630 showing the southern inflow tail the whole updraft column 
  was rotating...unbelievable!!!! </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - 
  Melbourne<BR><A 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
  <BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
    Herbert</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 04, 2002 10:33 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Broadford 
    Supercell.</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a 
    month my computer was again disabled by some miserable little .......anyway 
    all that, despite having up to date anti virus everything. Back to better 
    things, I found a remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of 
    Victoria this afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow 
    tails.... I still cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best 
    wishes Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 10:34:06 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;My guage 
at home only had 1.5mm when we returned at around 1900. All that remained of any 
storms were long Cirrus bands.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=cadence at stormchasers.au.com 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">Jane ONeill</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 9:19 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Victorian weather!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>F</FONT><FONT size=2>irst images of this amazing 
  beast......</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Photos of the powerful Broadford supercell taken 
  today at around 1630 showing the southern inflow tail the whole updraft column 
  was rotating...unbelievable!!!! </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - 
  Melbourne<BR><A 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
  <BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
    Herbert</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 04, 2002 10:33 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Broadford 
    Supercell.</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a 
    month my computer was again disabled by some miserable little .......anyway 
    all that, despite having up to date anti virus everything. Back to better 
    things, I found a remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of 
    Victoria this afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow 
    tails.... I still cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best 
    wishes Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 10:48:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Gee. That's one wild looking bit of 
sky!!</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=cadence at stormchasers.au.com 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">Jane ONeill</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 9:19 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Victorian weather!!!!!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>F</FONT><FONT size=2>irst images of this amazing 
  beast......</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Photos of the powerful Broadford supercell taken 
  today at around 1630 showing the southern inflow tail the whole updraft column 
  was rotating...unbelievable!!!! </FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg">http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - 
  Melbourne<BR><A 
  href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
  href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
  <BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
    Herbert</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 04, 2002 10:33 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Broadford 
    Supercell.</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.. For the second time in just over a 
    month my computer was again disabled by some miserable little .......anyway 
    all that, despite having up to date anti virus everything. Back to better 
    things, I found a remarkable supercell lurking around the Broadford area of 
    Victoria this afternoon complete with fully rotating updraft and two inflow 
    tails.... I still cant believe it but I will send some Photo's later. Best 
    wishes Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 100mm+ in E Gippsland storms this morning
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 12:18:15 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


An intense thunderstorm gave Mallacoota 102mm and Gabo Island 93mm, most
falling between 3 and 9 this morning. Mallacoota recorded 52 and Gabo 53
between 6 and 9, and Gabo's observer reported slight/moderate storm at the 3
and 6am obs, and heavy storm at 9. No hail.
The lightning tracker has shown storms moving SE in the area but constantly
backbuilding southeast of the low over the NSW Southern Tablelands.
Eden reported 64mm and Merimbula 31.
Is anyone in the area? This is the biggest rain event in Victoria for quite
a while!
Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 14:27:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Clyve,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Can you 
tell me which Direction you were looking in these pics, and your location? I 
might be able to put a fix on the cell's position for you. The hills at the back 
look like Mt Tallarook.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Simon Clarke" <simon_clarke at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 14:29:07 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Oct 2002 04:27:32.0409 (UTC) FILETIME=[85CC7A90:01C26C27]
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


MB

As you would probably know now from that list.... sad but true... it is
allegedly a fake..... would have been impressive though... it had me fooled
at first....but yes...the sea is too calm for Lili's approach.

Whether it is a genuine pic of another event... who knows... people look
closely !

Regards
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 10:22 AM
Subject: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili


>
> Forwarded from another list I'm on !!!
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/lili_waterspouts.jpg
>
>
>
>
> >
> >Attached is a picture taken offshore yesterday morning by a Seacor
> >employee as Lili approached shore.  Enjoy!
> >
> >-Bob Weinzapfel
> >
> >******************************************
> >* Bob Weinzapfel                            *
> >* Graduate Research Assistant       *
> >* School of Meteorology,                 *
> >* University of Oklahoma                 *
> >* <mailto:bobwein at ou.edu>bobwein at ou.edu (405)325-8896 *
> >*******************************************
>
>
>   ===================================================================
>   Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
>   Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   ===================================================================
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 14:43:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I noticed the smooth sea!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cheers Peter

----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Clarke" <simon_clarke at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 2:29 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili


> MB
>
> As you would probably know now from that list.... sad but true... it is
> allegedly a fake..... would have been impressive though... it had me
fooled
> at first....but yes...the sea is too calm for Lili's approach.
>
> Whether it is a genuine pic of another event... who knows... people look
> closely !
>
> Regards
> Simon
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 10:22 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
>
>
> >
> > Forwarded from another list I'm on !!!
> >
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/lili_waterspouts.jpg
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> > >Attached is a picture taken offshore yesterday morning by a Seacor
> > >employee as Lili approached shore.  Enjoy!
> > >
> > >-Bob Weinzapfel
> > >
> > >******************************************
> > >* Bob Weinzapfel                            *
> > >* Graduate Research Assistant       *
> > >* School of Meteorology,                 *
> > >* University of Oklahoma                 *
> > >* <mailto:bobwein at ou.edu>bobwein at ou.edu (405)325-8896 *
> > >*******************************************
> >
> >
> >   ===================================================================
> >   Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
> >   Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   ===================================================================
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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From: "Klipsi" <klipsi at bluewin.ch>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 06:57:22 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> I noticed the smooth sea!!!!!!!!!!!!

> but yes...the sea is too calm for Lili's approach.


could be the quiet eye of the storm ?  just kidding...

Klipsi



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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
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Date: Sat, 05 Oct 2002 16:58:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:19 AM 5/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Victorian weather!!!!!!
>
>First images of this amazing beast......
>
>Photos of the powerful Broadford supercell taken today at around 1630 
>showing the southern inflow tail the whole updraft column was 
>rotating...unbelievable!!!!
><http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg>http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch01.jpg
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1004ch02.jpg

I KNEW I wanted to go out yesterday!  I was so distracted, I couldn't focus 
on work. :-/  Nice photos! :)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com


</x-flowed>
From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 03:52:46 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'Day to Everyone:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Thursday 
evening, just before sunset, I looked to the East and saw a faint rainbow. There 
were high clouds around(the extreme westward cloudband around TS Lili) but there 
was no rain around. Can there be a rainbow with no rain in the area? As with 
Isidore, all we got from Lili was some clouds and a little wind, but NO 
rain.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Well, 
that's my question for this time. Have a good one and C-Ya'll later.&nbsp;&nbsp; 
David Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: awesome Lili sat
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 20:37:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Oct2002/Lili_tmo2002
274.jpg


Steve Baynham
icq : 26863574

Brisbane Storm Chasers
http://www.bsch.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

Homepage
http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany


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Date: Sat, 05 Oct 2002 19:56:35 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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If all of the angles are right, even rain at a great distance from you 
can refract a rainbow.  It is also possible with virga.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 03:52:46 -0500
Subject: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question

> G'Day to Everyone:
>        Thursday evening, just before sunset, I looked to the East and
> saw a faint rainbow. There were high clouds around(the extreme westward
> cloudband around TS Lili) but there was no rain around. Can there be a
> rainbow with no rain in the area? As with Isidore, all we got from Lili
> was some clouds and a little wind, but NO rain.
>         Well, that's my question for this time. Have a good one and
> C-Ya'll later.   David Powell
> 

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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 22:24:39 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I think I may have seen this before somewhere. Sorry. I think the middle one
is a fake. If you look closely you can see where it is "plastered" onto the
picture. Not sure but I think the left one may be too. Sorry Michael. I have
seen this somewhere before. :-((

----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 10:22 AM
Subject: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili


>
> Forwarded from another list I'm on !!!
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/lili_waterspouts.jpg
>
>
>
>
> >
> >Attached is a picture taken offshore yesterday morning by a Seacor
> >employee as Lili approached shore.  Enjoy!
> >
> >-Bob Weinzapfel
> >
> >******************************************
> >* Bob Weinzapfel                            *
> >* Graduate Research Assistant       *
> >* School of Meteorology,                 *
> >* University of Oklahoma                 *
> >* <mailto:bobwein at ou.edu>bobwein at ou.edu (405)325-8896 *
> >*******************************************
>
>
>   ===================================================================
>   Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
>   McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
>   North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
>   Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
>   ===================================================================
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 22:28:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'd say some rain which never reached the ground 
(Virga). Rainbows need rain as far as I know. :-)</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 6:52 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: A Rainbow Question</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'Day to Everyone:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Thursday 
  evening, just before sunset, I looked to the East and saw a faint rainbow. 
  There were high clouds around(the extreme westward cloudband around TS Lili) 
  but there was no rain around. Can there be a rainbow with no rain in the area? 
  As with Isidore, all we got from Lili was some clouds and a little wind, but 
  NO rain.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Well, 
  that's my question for this time. Have a good one and C-Ya'll 
  later.&nbsp;&nbsp; David Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 23:00:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Arky,

There would have been rain / virga for the light to be refracted through
the raindrops to create the rainbow....
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Sept02/rainbow.jpg (Clyve's photo)

and just for Jimmy, this shows what you find at the end of
rainbows...cows (hehehe, sorry Jimmy, I just can't help myself)
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/DCP02916.JPG

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------





----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 9:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question


> If all of the angles are right, even rain at a great distance from you
> can refract a rainbow.  It is also possible with virga.
>
> Phil
> <><
>
> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 03:52:46 -0500
> Subject: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
>
> > G'Day to Everyone:
> >        Thursday evening, just before sunset, I looked to the East
and
> > saw a faint rainbow. There were high clouds around(the extreme
westward
> > cloudband around TS Lili) but there was no rain around. Can there be
a
> > rainbow with no rain in the area? As with Isidore, all we got from
Lili
> > was some clouds and a little wind, but NO rain.
> >         Well, that's my question for this time. Have a good one and
> > C-Ya'll later.   David Powell
> >
>
>
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From: "Klipsi" <klipsi at bluewin.ch>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: A Rainbow Question
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 15:58:50 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> and just for Jimmy, this shows what you find at the end of
> rainbows...cows (hehehe, sorry Jimmy, I just can't help myself)
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/DCP02916.JPG
> Jane

weeeellll, the legend goes you may find gold. This pix here seems to prove
it, but it was black gold...
http://eclipse.span.ch/270502c.jpg

;-)

Klipsi


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Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2002 06:20:28 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
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Yes, it is definitely a fake.
Pasted here is the message sent to the other list by Gary Padgett who 
first sent the photo to the other list:
===================
Hey guys,
 
Sorry to have to tell you this.   After I'd sent that picture, the next 
time I downloaded e-mail
there was a message from the sender, apologizing for sending it.  
Apparently he'd discovered
it was a hoax in the sense it was not associated with Hurricane Lili.  
 
It is an impressive picture, though.
 
Here is the message he sent:
 
Hello all,
 
I was actually emailed this picture from 2 separate people.  The only 
information the emails said was what I passed on in mine.  I was just 
informed from a professor here at OU that this photo is likely a hoax.  
Someone he talked to at NSSL said he received the picture 2 days ago, not 
after yesterday morning as the emails claimed.  
 
Take a look at the picture again and notice the blurriness around the 
edge of the ship (blending it with the background), the lack of 
significant waves (not even whitecaps), and the definite edge between the 
sharp water and the blurry water.  If you open the image with a program 
that allows you to zoom in on it, you can see that it looks like 2 photos 
were likely spliced together to create this one.
 
Also, the fact that the only information passed around about the 
photographer was that he was a Seacor employee is questionable.  I know 
if I took the picture, I'd have my name on the edge of it or at least on 
the original email I sent out.  
 
I apologize for sending the group a fake photo.  Regardless, the part of 
the image with the waterspouts looks like it's real and is quite 
impressive if that is the case.

==================
Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 2002 22:24:39 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili

> I think I may have seen this before somewhere. Sorry. I think the
> middle one
> is a fake. If you look closely you can see where it is "plastered" onto
> the
> picture. Not sure but I think the left one may be too. Sorry Michael. I
> have
> seen this somewhere before. :-((
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Bath" <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, October 05, 2002 10:22 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: triple waterspouts from Hurricane Lili
> 
> 
> >
> > Forwarded from another list I'm on !!!
> >
> > http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/lili_waterspouts.jpg
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> > >Attached is a picture taken offshore yesterday morning by a Seacor
> > >employee as Lili approached shore.  Enjoy!
> > >
> > >-Bob Weinzapfel
> > >
> > >******************************************
> > >* Bob Weinzapfel                            *
> > >* Graduate Research Assistant       *
> > >* School of Meteorology,                 *
> > >* University of Oklahoma                 *
> > >* <mailto:bobwein at ou.edu>bobwein at ou.edu (405)325-8896 *
> > >*******************************************
> >
> >
> >   ===================================================================
> >   Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
> >   McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
> >   North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
> >   Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
> >   ===================================================================
> >
> > 
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> >  message.
> > 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
> 
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Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2002 08:32:40 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Great photos Clyve!  Well done!!!

AC
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2002 14:01:09 +0930
From: Richard Albury <ra7167 at chariot.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: in appreciation :)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Jane ONeill wrote:

> Hi Arky,
>
> There would have been rain / virga for the light to be refracted through
> the raindrops to create the rainbow....
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Sept02/rainbow.jpg (Clyve's photo)
>
> and just for Jimmy, this shows what you find at the end of
> rainbows...cows (hehehe, sorry Jimmy, I just can't help myself)
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/DCP02916.JPG
>
> Jane
>
> --Hi Jane

What excellent photo's u publish here. I am usiing them as wallpaper for my PC
and I change them around every few days. My friends who see my desktop are
amazed at them, so much so that they are becoming aware that there is a lot
more to weather than first meets the eye.

I point out that other dedicated meteorologists post just as many  interesting
photograhs on site as well from around australia and the world, which makes me
more determined to buy a digital camera so I can add a few here as well.

Again, thank you for such interesting photo's. I cherish them greatly.

Richard  - Kurralta Park.South Australia

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: in appreciation :)
Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2002 16:41:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Richard,

Pleased you are enjoying the pics - there are so many excellent
photographers in Australia, and digital cameras in particular have freed
a lot people up to be able to present what they saw, the way it actually
was - not the way the printer at the photolab thought it should be
printed or the way the old scanner decided it should look......then of
course you have people like Tony Middleton who have an 'eye' as well as
the technical knowledge to be able to create brilliant images using
SLR's!! (thanks Tony! - check his photography out at
http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/

Although 99% of us aren't meteorologists ...we're all of us keen amateur
weather enthusiasts!!

...a very hearty thank you to all of those people whose photographs are
presented on the MSC site - its growing popularity is a direct result of
both the stunning photographs and the reports sent in and complied by
weather enthusiasts!!  People now know a lot more about what Victoria
can offer weatherwise that they ever did.

Cheers,

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------





----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Albury" <ra7167 at chariot.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 06, 2002 2:31 PM
Subject: aus-wx: in appreciation :)


>
>
> Jane ONeill wrote:
>
> > Hi Arky,
> >
> > There would have been rain / virga for the light to be refracted
through
> > the raindrops to create the rainbow....
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Sept02/rainbow.jpg (Clyve's photo)
> >
> > and just for Jimmy, this shows what you find at the end of
> > rainbows...cows (hehehe, sorry Jimmy, I just can't help myself)
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/DCP02916.JPG
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --Hi Jane
>
> What excellent photo's u publish here. I am usiing them as wallpaper
for my PC
> and I change them around every few days. My friends who see my desktop
are
> amazed at them, so much so that they are becoming aware that there is
a lot
> more to weather than first meets the eye.
>
> I point out that other dedicated meteorologists post just as many
interesting
> photograhs on site as well from around australia and the world, which
makes me
> more determined to buy a digital camera so I can add a few here as
well.
>
> Again, thank you for such interesting photo's. I cherish them greatly.
>
> Richard  - Kurralta Park.South Australia
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
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Date: Sun, 6 Oct 2002 21:14:41 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: SW VIC storm
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
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Hi all.
Just had a weak thunderstorm go through SW of here 
with 4 Cg's that I saw. Was a nice surprise even 
though BOM had forecast a possible storm. Seems it 
was high based and associated with a slight wind 
change maybe??
Interesting to also note that we have recorded our 
maximum temperature for today of 18.7C at 8pm this 
evening as a result of the strengthening northerlies 
gusting up to 37knot.
Regards.

Tim Eckert
Hamilton
SW Victoria
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Date: Sun, 06 Oct 2002 23:47:46 +0930
From: Richard Albury <ra7167 at chariot.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.75 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Just to clear up a point
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com




Jane ONeill wrote:

> Hi Richard,
>
> Pleased you are enjoying the pics - there are so many excellent
> photographers in Australia, and digital cameras in particular have freed
> a lot people up to be able to present what they saw, the way it actually
> was - not the way the printer at the photolab thought it should be
> printed or the way the old scanner decided it should look......then of
> course you have people like Tony Middleton who have an 'eye' as well as
> the technical knowledge to be able to create brilliant images using
> SLR's!! (thanks Tony! - check his photography out at
> http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/
>
> Although 99% of us aren't meteorologists ...we're all of us keen amateur
> weather enthusiasts!!
>
> ...a very hearty thank you to all of those people whose photographs are
> presented on the MSC site - its growing popularity is a direct result of
> both the stunning photographs and the reports sent in and complied by
> weather enthusiasts!!  People now know a lot more about what Victoria
> can offer weatherwise that they ever did.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Jane

Hi Jane - everyone

I must clear up a point before there is any misconception here. I am not a
fully qualified meteorologist as such.  I am an Observer Grade 1 with B o M.
and have been for the past 30 years.

I have a full paramater weather station; the instruments being manually read
every 6 hours as opposed to electronic or self recording ones.

My station consists of a Stevenson Screen holding Max- Min themometer plus a
DP thermometer set, the standard B o M 8" raingauge, a windvane and anemometer
(recently damaged in a squall that passed over). I am awaiting Council
permission to re erect my windvane mast again.

My recording instruments consist of a barograph and thermograph; the
thermograph being kept indoors as is the barograph. Left outside in my
S/Screen would be stolen in an instant. Also I have 2 barometers which I check
off against each other, plus a mercurial barometer which is carefully stored
away out of harms way - as you know mercury being poisonous and little fingers
like touching.

I operated the weather station for the Meningie air field in S.Aust upper
south east for over 5 years, giving weather information to pilots of light air
craft flying to Kangaroo Island and to Adelaide, the capital city(mainly) and
to the local farming community. My station was called "Yalkuri" which is
aboriginal for big wind.

I started into weather basically because of astronomy. In my young days (< 9
years onwards) weather forecasts were very unreliable and many was the time I
set myself for a night of observing to find the sky overcast, contrary to what
the B o M forecasted. This kindled my interest and study of weather to the
extent that it dominated my interests to this very day with astronomy coming
in a close second.

So please understand that I am not a scientist as such in the field of
meteorology; just a very dedicated observer, and I have been for nore years
than most have been living :)

I am interested in all facets of weather'; yes even the balmy,  boring stuff
lolol. The one unchangable thing I have found out about weather is that it is
so changable very quickly. I have been in many areas of varying weather
patterns from tropical to temperate. I lived both in Darwin and in Melbourne
at various times, not to mention a stint in Vietnam(1968 - 69).

Again thank you to all that take the time to publish their photo's and
reports. It is greatly appreciated by yours truly.

If I can help out a budding weather person I would only be so pleased to do
so,  if you drop me a line or 2 :)


Richard - Kurralta Park. S.Australia

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Thunderstom  at  Hotham
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 01:12:30 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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If only I had a camera for the Cb which descended over Mt Hotham on
Friday-  3-5 cm of pea sized hail made the place look like a ski resort!

It was fabulous, 6 strike per min  at  the peak, nearly all C2C but still
good viewing . . . . 

If you have never experienced a thunderstorm on mount then I suggest you
do so. . . . :)


James

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Anthony
Cornelius
Sent: Sunday, 6 October 2002 8:33 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.

Great photos Clyve!  Well done!!!

AC
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 10:46:57 +1000
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Peter</FONT><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp; This storm was located almost due east of Broadford towards 
the Flowerdale area, the northern inflow band passed over Broadford. The 
decaying period of this storm passed near to Kilmore. I didn't mention this 
before but this amazing storm was Tornadic it produced suction vortices under 
the wall cloud for several minutes. The analysis of photographs show this 
happening, also another well know storm chaser was in the area with a video 
camera and videoed about 15 minutes of this storm. After I decided to move to a 
different location I drove south and saw Jane O'Neill, standing in a paddock!! 
she was only about half a kilometre from me all the time. Regards Clyve 
Herbert.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:pkmatters at bigpond.com.au" title=pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>Peter 
  Matters</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 2:27 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Clyve,</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Can 
  you tell me which Direction you were looking in these pics, and your location? 
  I might be able to put a fix on the cell's position for you. The hills at the 
  back look like Mt Tallarook.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers 
Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian pressure oddities!!!
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 13:46:00 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Afternoon all,

Have you noticed the oddity in the pressure fall across central and western
Victoria??  It's interesting that pressures are falling to ~995 - 996hPa
over the whole area at the sale time.  Reflects very little pressure
gradient.

Also the mid level cloudline has been edging southwest......

Any thoughts??? (maybe a deepening of the trough?)

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 16:05:20 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Tim, Bussy, and Others.

Haven't seen lightning for so long maybe I shouldn't comment, but here goes.

Where the lightning goes depends on the relative strengths of positive and
negative charges in cloud, atmosphere, and earth, and the distance between
the accumulated charges.

CG's - mostly negative flashes from cloud base (negative) to ground under
storm (positive area). Occasionally, more powerful positive flashes from
cloud top (positive) to ground away from under the storm (negative area).

CC's - positive flashes from top of cloud 1 (positive) to bottom of cloud 1
or cloud 2 (negative). Normally more common at higher altitudes (farther
from ground).

C to Air - From top of cloud (positive) to negatively charged atmosphere.
Can be seen from a long way off, and often the thunder is not heard (because
of the distance away).

Why the charges become so arranged? Maybe something to do with ice crystals
(top of cloud) being positively charged, and water droplets (bottom of
cloud) being negatively charged. I'm sure someone on the list will have some
information.

Maybe a bit too simple an explanation, but I'm willing to learn more!

Regards,
Bill,
Proserpine (clear, with 15 to 20 knot ESE breeze, temp ~ 27°C, RH 51%)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 10:08 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers


| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
|
| Also a question I would like to know the answer to...
| Seems that was a common theme from the storms
| out this way... What determines whether a storm puts
| out Cc's or Cg's or crawlers?
|
|
| ---- Original message ----
| >Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:19:25 +1000
| >From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
| >Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
| >To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-
| weather at world.std.com>
| >
| >Just had a quick storm go across here. One which I
| have watched for hours and now has dumped a whole
| 2mm and that is all.
| >This storm has had lots of crawlers and no cc's or
| cg's that I know of.
| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
| >
| >Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
|  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
|  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
|  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
|  message.
|  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
|

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From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Broadford Supercell.
Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 19:07:55 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Clive,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Thx for 
the info. You confirmed my thoughts from your pics; the main updraught was in 
the vicinity of Strath Creek. I would love to see the video that was 
shot.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>All this and I drove to Benalla and back to see a 
few distant storms over the Bright area!!! My wife has not let me live it 
down:-)) I still cant believe it lol! The area was exploding 3hrs before the 
Supercell, but all updraughts were vertical at the time (as per the few pics I 
emailed Jane). Everything was moving East to West, and updraughts were obscured 
by a lot of scud (at 1300). What&nbsp;caused things to organise??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers Peter</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PS. This is a huge learning experience for 
me!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 07, 2002 10:46 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
  Supercell.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Peter</FONT><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp; This storm was located almost due east of Broadford 
  towards the Flowerdale area, the northern inflow band passed over Broadford. 
  The decaying period of this storm passed near to Kilmore. I didn't mention 
  this before but this amazing storm was Tornadic it produced suction vortices 
  under the wall cloud for several minutes. The analysis of photographs show 
  this happening, also another well know storm chaser was in the area with a 
  video camera and videoed about 15 minutes of this storm. After I decided to 
  move to a different location I drove south and saw Jane O'Neill, standing in a 
  paddock!! she was only about half a kilometre from me all the time. Regards 
  Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=pkmatters at bigpond.com.au 
    href="mailto:pkmatters at bigpond.com.au">Peter Matters</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 05, 2002 2:27 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Broadford 
    Supercell.</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Clyve,</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Can 
    you tell me which Direction you were looking in these pics, and your 
    location? I might be able to put a fix on the cell's position for you. The 
    hills at the back look like Mt Tallarook.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Cheers 
Peter</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 21:28:07 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id HAA14381
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Thanks for that Bill.
Quite often the more simple explanation is the better 
as it easier to understand for those of us not as 
technically minded.
Tim.


---- Original message ----
>Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 16:05:20 +1000
>From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>  
>Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers  
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>
>Hi Tim, Bussy, and Others.
>
>Haven't seen lightning for so long maybe I shouldn't 
comment, but here goes.
>
>Where the lightning goes depends on the relative 
strengths of positive and
>negative charges in cloud, atmosphere, and earth, 
and the distance between
>the accumulated charges.
>
>CG's - mostly negative flashes from cloud base 
(negative) to ground under
>storm (positive area). Occasionally, more powerful 
positive flashes from
>cloud top (positive) to ground away from under the 
storm (negative area).
>
>CC's - positive flashes from top of cloud 1 (positive) 
to bottom of cloud 1
>or cloud 2 (negative). Normally more common at 
higher altitudes (farther
>from ground).
>
>C to Air - From top of cloud (positive) to negatively 
charged atmosphere.
>Can be seen from a long way off, and often the 
thunder is not heard (because
>of the distance away).
>
>Why the charges become so arranged? Maybe 
something to do with ice crystals
>(top of cloud) being positively charged, and water 
droplets (bottom of
>cloud) being negatively charged. I'm sure someone 
on the list will have some
>information.
>
>Maybe a bit too simple an explanation, but I'm 
willing to learn more!
>
>Regards,
>Bill,
>Proserpine (clear, with 15 to 20 knot ESE breeze, 
temp ~ 27°C, RH 51%)
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 10:08 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
>
>
>| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
>|
>| Also a question I would like to know the answer to...
>| Seems that was a common theme from the storms
>| out this way... What determines whether a storm 
puts
>| out Cc's or Cg's or crawlers?
>|
>|
>| ---- Original message ----
>| >Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:19:25 +1000
>| >From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>| >Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
>| >To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-
>| weather at world.std.com>
>| >
>| >Just had a quick storm go across here. One which 
I
>| have watched for hours and now has dumped a 
whole
>| 2mm and that is all.
>| >This storm has had lots of crawlers and no cc's or
>| cg's that I know of.
>| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
>| >
>| >Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
>|  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>|  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>|  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather 
your_email_address" in the body of your
>|  message.
>|  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au--------------
----------------
>|
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
--------------
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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.96.69]
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian pressure oddities!!!
Date: Mon, 07 Oct 2002 23:48:57 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Oct 2002 13:48:57.0391 (UTC) FILETIME=[487053F0:01C26E08]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>

Good evening Jane :)

I noticed that too.  This may have attributed to the appearance of fairly 
decent thundery showers/storms across central parts this afternoon.

It was quite a late development too with the first sign of real towers 
appearing at 2:30pm

Bring on tomorrow

Karl :)

>From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Victorian pressure oddities!!!
>Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 13:46:00 +1000
>
>Afternoon all,
>
>Have you noticed the oddity in the pressure fall across central and western
>Victoria??  It's interesting that pressures are falling to ~995 - 996hPa
>over the whole area at the sale time.  Reflects very little pressure
>gradient.
>
>Also the mid level cloudline has been edging southwest......
>
>Any thoughts??? (maybe a deepening of the trough?)
>
>Jane
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------




_________________________________________________________________
MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: 
http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx

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</x-flowed>
From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 11:19:48 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hello Bill

Does ground just under a thunderstorm have a positive charge or does the
storm move from a always negative area to a always positively charged area?

Chas
Strahan Tasmania

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 07, 2002 10:28 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers


> Thanks for that Bill.
> Quite often the more simple explanation is the better
> as it easier to understand for those of us not as
> technically minded.
> Tim.
>
>
> ---- Original message ----
> >Date: Mon, 7 Oct 2002 16:05:20 +1000
> >From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
> >Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >
> >Hi Tim, Bussy, and Others.
> >
> >Haven't seen lightning for so long maybe I shouldn't
> comment, but here goes.
> >
> >Where the lightning goes depends on the relative
> strengths of positive and
> >negative charges in cloud, atmosphere, and earth,
> and the distance between
> >the accumulated charges.
> >
> >CG's - mostly negative flashes from cloud base
> (negative) to ground under
> >storm (positive area). Occasionally, more powerful
> positive flashes from
> >cloud top (positive) to ground away from under the
> storm (negative area).
> >
> >CC's - positive flashes from top of cloud 1 (positive)
> to bottom of cloud 1
> >or cloud 2 (negative). Normally more common at
> higher altitudes (farther
> >from ground).
> >
> >C to Air - From top of cloud (positive) to negatively
> charged atmosphere.
> >Can be seen from a long way off, and often the
> thunder is not heard (because
> >of the distance away).
> >
> >Why the charges become so arranged? Maybe
> something to do with ice crystals
> >(top of cloud) being positively charged, and water
> droplets (bottom of
> >cloud) being negatively charged. I'm sure someone
> on the list will have some
> >information.
> >
> >Maybe a bit too simple an explanation, but I'm
> willing to learn more!
> >
> >Regards,
> >Bill,
> >Proserpine (clear, with 15 to 20 knot ESE breeze,
> temp ~ 27°C, RH 51%)
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Friday, October 04, 2002 10:08 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
> >
> >
> >| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
> >|
> >| Also a question I would like to know the answer to...
> >| Seems that was a common theme from the storms
> >| out this way... What determines whether a storm
> puts
> >| out Cc's or Cg's or crawlers?
> >|
> >|
> >| ---- Original message ----
> >| >Date: Fri, 4 Oct 2002 21:19:25 +1000
> >| >From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
> >| >Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
> >| >To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-
> >| weather at world.std.com>
> >| >
> >| >Just had a quick storm go across here. One which
> I
> >| have watched for hours and now has dumped a
> whole
> >| 2mm and that is all.
> >| >This storm has had lots of crawlers and no cc's or
> >| cg's that I know of.
> >| >Why are the strikes not going to cloud or ground?
> >| >
> >| >Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
> >|  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >|  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >|  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> your_email_address" in the body of your
> >|  message.
> >|  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au--------------
> ----------------
> >|
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
> --------------
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>

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From: debp at relax.com.au
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 11:26:33 +1000
X-Authentication-Warning: users.relax.com.au: nobody set sender to debp at relax.com.au using -f
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
User-Agent: IMP/PHP3 Imap webMail Program 2.0.11
Subject: aus-wx: Hail
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi All,
Just had a brief hail shower in Boronia.
Small 1 - 2 mm lasting about 3 minutes.
Sun is shining now!
Rgds
Debbie
Bornia, Melbourne
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From: "Klipsi" <klipsi at bluewin.ch>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: chase storms from space
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 07:47:16 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


go see live streaming video from space shuttle at
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/nasatv/index.html
or
http://www.unitedspacealliance.com/live/NASATV.htm

when it flies over nighttime you may see live streaming storms. I just saw
amazing lightning going on as it flew over brazil at night, nonstop of cg
activity seen from space, wonderful !

Klipsi

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From: "Max" <max56 at iinet.net.au>
To: <Aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Fires
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 18:20:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Hi all,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>For those of you who may not know, </span></font><st1:City><st1:place><font
  size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sydney</span></font></st1:place></st1:City><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> is again in
a bushfire crisis. So far, 8 homes have been lost at </span></font><st1:place><font
 size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Engadine</span></font></st1:place><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, and others
are under threat at </span></font><st1:place><st1:PlaceName><font size=2
  face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Woronora</span></font></st1:PlaceName><font
 size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> </span></font><st1:PlaceType><font
  size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Heights</span></font></st1:PlaceType></st1:place><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>. Another
fire is burning in the </span></font><st1:place><st1:PlaceName><font size=2
  face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Berkshire</span></font></st1:PlaceName><font
 size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> </span></font><st1:PlaceType><font
  size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Park</span></font></st1:PlaceType></st1:place><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Windsor Downs
area. Apparently no property is under threat from this fire at the moment. I&#8217;ll
update when I know some more.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Max<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=1 color="#448593" face=Geneva><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Geneva;color:#448593;font-weight:bold;
mso-no-proof:yes'>__________________________________________________________________</span></font></b><font
size=1 color="#448593" face=Geneva><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Geneva;color:#448593;mso-no-proof:yes'><br>
</span></font><b><font size=2 color="#448593" face=Geneva><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Geneva;color:#448593;font-weight:bold;
mso-no-proof:yes'>Zac N/A</span></font></b><font size=1 color="#448593"
face=Geneva><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Geneva;color:#448593;
mso-no-proof:yes'><br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>ICQ#:&nbsp;</span></b></span></font><b><font
size=1 color="#4051c8" face=Geneva><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Geneva;color:#4051C8;font-weight:bold;mso-no-proof:yes'>10691140</span></font></b><font
size=1 color="#448593" face=Geneva><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:
Geneva;color:#448593;mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

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  style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;color:#448593;font-weight:bold;
  mso-no-proof:yes'>Current ICQ status:</span></font></b><font size=1
  color="#448593" face=Verdana><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Verdana;
  color:#448593;mso-no-proof:yes'>&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></font><span
  style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=bottom style='padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
  style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-no-proof:yes'><img width=15 height=16
  id="_x0000_i1025" src="cid:image001.gif at 01C26EF7.52879570"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
</table>

<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 color="#448593" face=Wingdings><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Wingdings;color:#448593;font-weight:bold;
mso-no-proof:yes'>+</span></font></b><font size=1 color="#448593" face=Geneva><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Geneva;color:#448593;mso-no-proof:yes'>
&nbsp;<a href="http://wwp.icq.com/10691140"><b><span style='font-weight:bold'>More
ways to contact me </span></b></a><br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>__________________________________________________________________</span></b></span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

</div>

</body>

</html>


</x-html>


Embedded Content: image001.gif: 00000001,0e1acd69,00000000,00000000
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Morning Glory update
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 19:14:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


From Robert Goler, on relay from Gulf Country....


I'm currently in Weipa sitting in the met office, having arrived on
Saturday evening.  The last two mornings have seen tremendous morning
glories over Karumba....doh!!  The Gulf line which occurs over the
northern peninsula hasn't been as impressive as last week...doh doh!!!!
However, we did start making flights to collect data on how these cloud
lines form....well to actually confirm the results I have obtained from
the numerical modelling work I have done, and so far the atmosphere
agrees with the model  :-)

Yesterday we did 5 hrs of flying in the afternoon from the west coast to
the east coast making horizontal transects through the sea breezes,
ranging from 200ft above ground level to around 5000 ft.  Then at each
end of the peninsula we climbed to 10000ft to take a sounding.  Seeing
the data come in was exciting as it all matched up with my modelling
work.  You could even see the east-coast sea breeze overriding the
west-coast sea breeze as the leading edge of the east-coast sea breeze
could be detected at a height of around 2500ft, but not at 200ft.  And
there was quite a bit of turbulence at the 1500ft level in the vicinity
of the sea breeze interaction indicating a high shear region.  It was
also amazing to see how many fires are burning over the peninsula at the
moment!

This morning we did 5 hrs of flying through a pissy cloud line
consisting of cu only about 1000ft deep - base at 1500ft, top at
2500ft - about 50 miles off the western coast.  We flew a dozen 30 mile
legs through the cloud line at heights ranging from 200ft to 10000ft
with soundings taken 15 miles east and west of the cloud line.  Once
again, the data matched up with what I have been modelling, so that was
good.

The first night in Weipa was interested as I went down to the Albatross
hotel where there were some Oktoberfest celebrations going on with a
live band and lots of drinking.  I was also fortunate enough to pick up
that night, which was good, but I didn't get back to my hotel until
6:30am, just giving me enough time to shower and meet the other guys for
breakfast and then start work.  I kept dozing off throughout the day,
much to the amusement of the other guys  :-)

Today the plane is currently down near Karumba in preparation for a
southerly morning glory which is predicted for tomorrow morning.  So
tomorrow will be a quiet one for me.




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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 19:31:42 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This is what I sent around to all of our branches today, & I thought I'd
pass it on as it could be of help - the little downloadable cleaner is a
must to have on your computer just in case!!

Please take the following steps in Outlook Express to protect yourself
from the bugbear virus. DO NOT leave this until tomorrow - it may be too
late!!

Steps to protect yourself against the bugbear virus (other than having
up to date virus checkers):

#1. Set your email program to not preview messages. Each email will then
show as a single line in your inbox - if your preview pane is activated
and a virus comes through, it will be on your computer before you even
get to read the email - please turn 'Preview Pane' off. In Outlook
Express, in the menu at the top go to View - Layout : Untick "Show
Preview Pane"

#2. In the menu at the top go to Tools - Options - Maintenance : make
sure that there is a tick next to "Empty messages from the Deleted Items
folder on Exit"

#3. Click on the link below to download a cleaner for the bugbear virus
should it get through these defences and VET and invade your computer.
When downloading this file (which will take about 11 seconds), take note
of the name of the file and where it is put:

The file will be placed into a folder on your hard drive called
C:\Sophtemp

In this folder, double left click on the file called   Rmbgbear.exe   to
run the cleaning program - it will instantly disinfect your computer if
you have received the virus & it will tell you whether you have it any
time you run it. You can run this program just by double clicking it if
ever you are uncertain of the status of your system at any time.
http://www.sophos.com.au/tools/bearsfx.exe


Jane

PS: if you need to know how to change the settings in Microsoft Outlook,
let me know.

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: chase storms from space
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 20:01:21 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2616
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Great links! Thankyou!

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Klipsi
Sent: Tuesday, 8 October 2002 3:47 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: chase storms from space

go see live streaming video from space shuttle at
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/nasatv/index.html
or
http://www.unitedspacealliance.com/live/NASATV.htm

when it flies over nighttime you may see live streaming storms. I just
saw
amazing lightning going on as it flew over brazil at night, nonstop of
cg
activity seen from space, wonderful !

Klipsi

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to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 20:51:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Chas and Others,

From what I have read, positive under storm, negative away from under
storm - but I was hoping someone with more knowledge/more recent knowledge,
may be able to help - apparently a "grey area". Bear in mind we are talking
"relative" differences here.

Are you suggesting that the "charge" of the ground may control the movement
(direction) of a/the storm??

While I am corresponding, thank you for your informative posts from
Tasmania - I have a mate outside of Hobart, and it is great to relate his
reports (he is not a "weather man") with your reports. Thanks to others
"down there" also.

Regards,
Bill.
Proserpine

----- Original Message -----
From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 10:19 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lots of crawlers


| Hello Bill
|
| Does ground just under a thunderstorm have a positive charge or does the
| storm move from a always negative area to a always positively charged
area?
|
| Chas
| Strahan Tasmania


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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Sender: gthurtel at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Tue, 08 Oct 2002 21:51:24 +1000
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Geoff Thurtell <gthurtel at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Charge of the lightning brigade
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi all,

It has been a long time since I sent a message to the list but I could not 
resist this one. I was leafing through the Sydney Morning Herald while 
eating my lunch today and came across an article on page 7 that contains 
some characters that may be familiar to this list. I have pasted a link below:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/10/07/1033538894396.html

Also, as Max said in his earlier message, the bushfire situation in the 
Sydney area is a little precarious at the moment. The Engadine fire is 
endangering many properties. Fire fighters are hoping that the weak 
southerly change that is passing through Sydney at the moment will help 
them to bring the situation under control.

Geoff

Geoff Thurtell
Schofields NSW

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [210.49.209.26]
From: "Catherine Elliott" <faerinelda at hotmail.com>
To: "AussieWeather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Season Celebrations
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 23:30:17 +1000
X-Mailer: MSN Explorer 7.00.0021.1900
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Oct 2002 13:35:21.0087 (UTC) FILETIME=[8C4BF8F0:01C26ECF]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<HTML><BODY STYLE="font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>You look like you had a really fun time of it. I like the cake idea. nice&nbsp;piccy</DIV> <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV> <DIV>cath</DIV></BODY></HTML><br clear=all><hr>Get more from the Web.  FREE MSN Explorer download : <a href='http://explorer.msn.com'>http://explorer.msn.com</a><br></p>


</x-html>

From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....
Date: Tue, 8 Oct 2002 23:06:43 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


thanks for that jane,

i've done exactly as per your instructions, when i execute, a dos window
instantly comes up with some jargon AND...

0 infected processes found in memory.
0 infected processes terminated.

is this correct?

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 7:01 PM
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....


> This is what I sent around to all of our branches today, & I thought I'd
> pass it on as it could be of help - the little downloadable cleaner is a
> must to have on your computer just in case!!
>
> Please take the following steps in Outlook Express to protect yourself
> from the bugbear virus. DO NOT leave this until tomorrow - it may be too
> late!!
>
> Steps to protect yourself against the bugbear virus (other than having
> up to date virus checkers):
>
> #1. Set your email program to not preview messages. Each email will then
> show as a single line in your inbox - if your preview pane is activated
> and a virus comes through, it will be on your computer before you even
> get to read the email - please turn 'Preview Pane' off. In Outlook
> Express, in the menu at the top go to View - Layout : Untick "Show
> Preview Pane"
>
> #2. In the menu at the top go to Tools - Options - Maintenance : make
> sure that there is a tick next to "Empty messages from the Deleted Items
> folder on Exit"
>
> #3. Click on the link below to download a cleaner for the bugbear virus
> should it get through these defences and VET and invade your computer.
> When downloading this file (which will take about 11 seconds), take note
> of the name of the file and where it is put:
>
> The file will be placed into a folder on your hard drive called
> C:\Sophtemp
>
> In this folder, double left click on the file called   Rmbgbear.exe   to
> run the cleaning program - it will instantly disinfect your computer if
> you have received the virus & it will tell you whether you have it any
> time you run it. You can run this program just by double clicking it if
> ever you are uncertain of the status of your system at any time.
> http://www.sophos.com.au/tools/bearsfx.exe
>
>
> Jane
>
> PS: if you need to know how to change the settings in Microsoft Outlook,
> let me know.
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 03:35:23 +1000 (EST)
From: Grant B <supercellz at yahoo.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
G'Day everyone, 

I've just uploaded a website. see www.hunterweather.com/~raymondterrace for details. 

Please tell me what you think. As you will be able to see, this is my first attempt at this sort of thing. 


Thanks, 

Grant 
<p><br><hr size=1>
<a href="http://au.rd.yahoo.com/mail/tagline/?http://au.mobile.yahoo.com/mobile/sms/msgr/index.html" target=_blank><b>Yahoo! Messenger for SMS</b></a>
- Always be connected to your Messenger Friends

</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 06:12:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Richard,

That's exactly what you should get if your computer isn't carrying the
virus.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------





----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 11:36 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....


> thanks for that jane,
>
> i've done exactly as per your instructions, when i execute, a dos
window
> instantly comes up with some jargon AND...
>
> 0 infected processes found in memory.
> 0 infected processes terminated.
>
> is this correct?
>
> regards
> richard
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 08, 2002 7:01 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....
>
>
> > This is what I sent around to all of our branches today, & I thought
I'd
> > pass it on as it could be of help - the little downloadable cleaner
is a
> > must to have on your computer just in case!!
> >
> > Please take the following steps in Outlook Express to protect
yourself
> > from the bugbear virus. DO NOT leave this until tomorrow - it may be
too
> > late!!
> >
> > Steps to protect yourself against the bugbear virus (other than
having
> > up to date virus checkers):
> >
> > #1. Set your email program to not preview messages. Each email will
then
> > show as a single line in your inbox - if your preview pane is
activated
> > and a virus comes through, it will be on your computer before you
even
> > get to read the email - please turn 'Preview Pane' off. In Outlook
> > Express, in the menu at the top go to View - Layout : Untick "Show
> > Preview Pane"
> >
> > #2. In the menu at the top go to Tools - Options - Maintenance :
make
> > sure that there is a tick next to "Empty messages from the Deleted
Items
> > folder on Exit"
> >
> > #3. Click on the link below to download a cleaner for the bugbear
virus
> > should it get through these defences and VET and invade your
computer.
> > When downloading this file (which will take about 11 seconds), take
note
> > of the name of the file and where it is put:
> >
> > The file will be placed into a folder on your hard drive called
> > C:\Sophtemp
> >
> > In this folder, double left click on the file called   Rmbgbear.exe
to
> > run the cleaning program - it will instantly disinfect your computer
if
> > you have received the virus & it will tell you whether you have it
any
> > time you run it. You can run this program just by double clicking it
if
> > ever you are uncertain of the status of your system at any time.
> > http://www.sophos.com.au/tools/bearsfx.exe
> >
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > PS: if you need to know how to change the settings in Microsoft
Outlook,
> > let me know.
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
-
> >
>
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
--
>

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Cc: <robs_dream2 at hotmail.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Morning glory update 9/10/02
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 10:00:59 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


From Robert Goler in the Gulf.....

Here's this morning's sat pic showing a southerly morning glory (cloud lines
oriented northeast-southwest over southern Gulf), a northeasterly morning
glory passing through it (northwest-southeast lines of brighter cloud within
southerly mg), and a Gulf line west of the peninsula further north.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/nac1.gif

Cheers,

Rob

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "NANDINA" <nandina at alphalink.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: simple but effective virus protection....
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 10:58:29 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Jane, thank you so much for that advice.  Now I wonder if you can tell me
how to get OE to accept a message rule in which the To: is blank?  Tried
leaving the response box blank, but it insists it needs a name.  All my
latest virus warnings came from a pseudo 'read' mail (I usually have a full
inbox), but could not create a rule for this.
Anyway, I have followed your instructions, perhaps I won't receive them any
more:-)

Cheers,

Nandina



---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.394 / Virus Database: 224 - Release Date: 10/3/02

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Broadford supercell
Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2002 23:34:40 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Evening all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>In an article submitted to Melbourne Storm Chasers&nbsp;by 
Clyve&nbsp;Herbert describing his encounter with the Broadford supercell of 
Friday (4th October), he&nbsp;says "I had seen photographs of such 
storms&nbsp;over the plains of the USA!!!....This one was only about 70 
kilometres north of Melbourne Australia!"&nbsp;</FONT><FONT 
size=2>&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The article and images can&nbsp;be found here...... 
</FONT><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2><FONT face="MS Sans Serif"><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_10_02ch.htm"><FONT 
face=Tahoma>http://www.stormchasers.au.com/04_10_02ch.htm</FONT></A>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif"></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>...more to come.....</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif"></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Enjoy!!&nbsp; </DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Jane</DIV>
<DIV><FONT 
face="MS Sans Serif"></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill 
- Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 08:21:29 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Wx-Chase <WX-CHASE at listserv.uiuc.edu>
Subject: aus-wx: October 9 SE QLD Supercell With Golfball Hail!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Tuesday night had a nice feel to it, a nice northerly and a bit of
humidity…still a little cool, but nice!  The sky eventually became quite
overcast with Stratocumulus overnight from midnight onwards which was
quite encouraging!  But the N'ly stopped at around 3am…not a huge thing,
although at the time I was hoping it would kick up again.  The morning
warmed up quickly, getting into the mid 20s quickly in the morning and
the northerly very quickly began to kick up again (partly due to the
seabreeze).

A friend of mine had always wanted to come stormchasing with me…thinking
today might be a good day I decided to bring her along to see what she
thought of it.  I had to pick her up from Bracken Ridge, and I left my
place at 11:45am (after finishing work at 11am).  I got there around
12:15 and we grabbed some lunch and fuel - I had originally decided to
head out towards Warrill View, but some developing weak showers and
storms were making that decision quite difficult!  To the SW all I could
see was flat CJs, while around me I already had some possible developing
storms.  After having a debate against myself, I decided to stick to the
original idea as I wanted to play the SE change.  Fifty minutes later at
Ipswich I was getting quite concerned that the only development was to
the north, but when we got onto the Cunningham Hwy I was quite relieved
to start seeing some convection developing on the Border Ranges!  We got
Warrill View at around 2pm and we waited there for a little bit.  It was
quite warm, the thermo had been sitting on 32C.  There was a light to
moderate N/NE'ly blowing, it didn't feel overly humid but it certainly
wasn't dry either!

There were some CJs to the west and south…none of them were really doing
anything which was disappointing.  We waited for about 40 minutes before
eventually deciding to head south towards Boonah.  There seemed to be
some weak cells in NE NSW and I thought that it might be our best chance
and I was hoping something might develop on the actual trough and
change.

Things began to look a little nicer at Boonah, the storm wasn't that far
away (40km or so) and it didn't seem to be moving that fast.  However it
was throwing up the odd nice updraft on the northern flank which got me
interested.  I wanted it to track NE'ly so it would go into chasable
territory (that and if it did that chances are it would have meant that
it was a lot stronger).  I got a call from Jonty at the Bureau and we
discussed it briefly…he mentioned that they were watching the storm as
it was possibly developing at the intersection of the S'ly changes and
the NE'ly winds but they weren't sure whether it would end up being
south of that boundary.  Joey and I headed just out of Boonah by about
7-8km and stopped again, on the northern flank a massive updraft had
exploded!  Although by the time we had stopped it didn't look quite as
good.  We shot eastwards to Beaudesert and sat out a few kilometers west
of the town just before the trees started.  We could see the band of
rain off to the S and SE with the main updraft region to our SSW.  The
updraft region was looking interesting at this time, there was a small
inflow region into the storm, and it had developed good outflow.  A
fibrous but otherwise relatively solid (for the strong 300mb shear)
anvil was spreading well out towards the east, although the storm itself
was not overly high (35,000 or so).  I spoke to MB and discussed the
situation with him, he said that the storm had intensified on radar (as
it had appeared to visually) and there was a nice core of red.  He said
that it had supercellular characteristics on radar and was now moving
NNE (also noticeable).  But it was moving slowly…and the other strange
thing is that we hadn't even seen a CG from the storm yet!  Although we
were getting rumbles of thunder constantly rolling into one another. 
There was a nice inflow band developing into the storm, it was beginning
to stretch several kilometers out to the NNW!  A quick word to Jonty
about the structure and he replied with the storm also having
supercellular characteristics on radar!  

I was amazed at the lack of lightning though…the rain curtain remained
within 5km of us the entire time and we never even saw so much as a
flash (although heard the continuous rumbling!)  Eventually I told Joey
that we should only sit in the car, to which she replied with "but
there's no lightning!"  But I just wanted to be safe as we were quite
close and I didn't want the first CG we saw to be within 50m of us while
standing in the open (or worse…)  I think I jinxed the CG thing
though…as I promised Joey that she'd see at least one CG.  Did she see
it?  Well…going on, we decided to head west a bit just to get a better
look at some of the lowerings underneath the main base.  They weren't
doing anything spectacular, but I was thinking of taking a road south
just west of us.  That was the original plan, but the we got overtaken
by rain…originally just rain.  Then it was torrential rain with strong
gusty (60-70km/h) winds.  A minute or two after the hail started…just a
little at first but then just bucket loads of it!  It was probably the
heaviest hail I've been in, it was blanketing everything even before it
was being washed away!  The noise was DEAFENING!!!  Joey got quite
scared…I must say even I was taken back by the ferocity, there was
debris falling all over the car and all over the road from the wind and
hail!!!  The stones were mostly 1-2cm but some were up to 3cm…these were
solid and jagged though…not soft hail!  I wanted to report it to the
Bureau and also phone MB.  Both of them I could hardly hear them on the
phone and in the end I know with MB at least I just told him a whole
pile of things and had a muffled response back that I couldn't
understand over the hail and then hung up!  The winds were gusty
originally but then eased off a bit (but it was never calm!)  This
continued for around 5-6 minutes before the hail let-off briefly.  I
decided that I'd prefer to be east and trying to get north of the storm
- that and get out of the hail region!  Just going a couple of hundred
metres westwards to find a place to turn around the hail actually got
slightly bigger (a lot of 3cm's), and I briefly wondered if they would
get even bigger further west but didn't really want to find out (3cm is
the maximum size hail you really want on your car if you don't want too
many dents!)  He headed east, very strong winds and heavy rain greeted
us getting out of the NE side of the storm.  The rain eventually let off
and it was only drizzle at Beaudesert.  We headed northwards, but the
storm was heading NNE and was going to intersect the highway.  For some
reasons the traffic lights in Beaudesert took half an eternity to change
- I was getting impatient, but even then we got stuck behind slow
drivers going out of Beaudesert.  Eventually we got caught in the
southeastern side of the storm which brought heavy rain and gusty winds
once again.  Very soon though the winds strengthened tending 70-80km/h
with gusts nearing 90km/h and the hail started again!  Initially it was
pea size but it was gradually getting bigger…

The hail got up to 1-2cm once again, although there was not as much hail
as before (mostly rain and hail mixed in, but still a lot!)  Visibility
was quite poor and the highway collectively slowed to about 40km/h
before everyone started pulling off…I really wanted to head further
north and made a judgment that since the storm itself was moving quite
slowly, if we were to continue we should be able to go through.  I was
concerned about the larger hail, but I thought that the main updraft
region would still be a bit to our west and we were sitting on the
eastern edge of the hail (which appeared to be the case given what
happened later).  Visibility continued to decline though…very soon we
were crawling along at 20-30km/h with 2cm hail, torrential rain and gale
force winds pounding the car!

As we continued further north (I think the road took us NE which took us
out of the hail core), things began to improve and eventually the rain
and hail stopped (quite abruptly) it was quite eerie actually - although
there was some drizzle.  The Sun actually came out and a minute or two
later though (with no clouds above us, the anvil was streaming off to
the east) we got blasted by winds of 80-90km/h and torrential "drizzle"
it was "drizzle" because the rain had been blown so hard (and presumably
away from the storm) it was like a fine mist, but visibility was
horrible!!!  I couldn't believe it, we could see the Sun and we had
visibility of only 20-30m or so on the road because of the rain/wind
from the storm behind us (presumably a rain foot/microburst).  Put it
this way…the rain was blowing so low on the ground you hear me saying
"oh we have fog up ahead!"  And then as we go through it I say "Oh
err…umm…this is rain!??"  The main updraft you could see was to the
SW…we spotted one possible funnel, but I would be quite hesitant to call
it one (it didn't last very long and became very "scuddy" after).  And
would you believe…still not one CG!!!  The storm had appeared a little
smaller at this stage…the road curved back underneath the anvil and hail
began to fall!  There was a fair bit of hail actually…the hail was
falling in front of the storm, this was mostly 2cm stones.  You could
see the tyre marks in the hail on the road - this was just from hail
falling in front of the storm!  (The road was far from covered, but
there was enough to see where cars had driven previously).  Many people
had pulled over again - there was no rain at all, JUST hail (and I
thought it humorous that people had their wipers on for hail and no
rain, although I think I did too but it was the fact that I forgot to
turn them off after :)  I wanted to find a lookout or something and see
whether the storm had any decent structure…opposite to a service station
I sighted a road, "Johanna Rd" - well, given Joey's real name was
Johanna I thought what the heck, so we took the road and it took us back
SW.  I was hoping for a clearing, but it actually was a shortcut from
the north to take you back towards Jimboomba and into the car centre. 
Just as we were coming into the town there were "white explosions" on
the ground.  "Oh f…!!!  That's massive hail!!!"  I said…they weren't
massive…but golf ball size easy!  The weren't many of them though, it
was hit and miss (i.e. there was a golf ball stone falling around us
every second or two), but they were breaking into 2-3cm pieces when they
hit the road!  I quickly tried to do a U-turn thinking of taking shelter
at the service station about 2km away.  Joey fumbled to get the video
camera back on…and then the stones were hitting some of the parked cars
setting off car alarms!!!!!!  We got one stone on the windscreen which
looked about 3.5-4cm, it gave me a fright and I thought it was going to
smash it as it made an absolute tremendous noise!!!  But it didn't
fortunately.  I literally redlined the car in the lower three gears to
get out of there and back to the service station ASAP!  We were about
500m in front of the hail, so we parked underneath and I jumped out with
the video camera.  I had a few strange looks (as the hail was falling in
front of the storm so no one really knew what was coming)…30 seconds
later they soon found out as the service station tin roof began to get
pummeled with hailstones.  I was disappointed that the largest they were
getting were only 3cm though, after seeing such big ones just barely 2km
away!  I guess large hail is very isolated in a storm normally so just
2km makes a difference.  And given that we got hail there and Dale (who
also lives in Jimboomba, only got drizzle) shows how localized the
events can be!  (Jimboomba is only all of 5-6km wide/long if that <if
you include the outer areas>).

We waited it out at the service station and it went to the
north…reported the hail and also talked to MB to get an idea on the
further development to the S and SW.  We decided to head south to a
little lookout I knew near the Christian Outreach Centre just north of
Beaudesert as the original supercell had weakened…although there was a
lot of stratocumulus at this stage and it was difficult to see it.  We
were under a SE'ly after the storm so I assume the SE'lies were bringing
in the stratocu.  As we departed once again I expressed my amazement in
not even seeing one CG from the storm!!!  Golf ball hail but no CGs…go
figure.

At the lookout we saw that there was hail in the flooded gutters beside
the road…most of the stones were only a centimeter, but a couple were
around 1.5-2cm (not bad given the storm had gone over there about
30-40minutes ago…we were actually sitting in the car for 10 minutes and
hadn't actually looked around us for hailstones in the gutter yet until
Joey pointed them out as she hopped out).  There were a couple of cells
to our WSW, and then some 'muck' to our south.  Originally I had
promised Joey "At least one CG" - wanting to keep that promise we
decided to head back to Beaudesert, shoot westwards towards Boonah and
then north towards Ipswich (there is no road that goes NW across the
Flinders Ranges which is annoying - well there is one, but I've never
been on it before, I should try it one time but I would have imagined it
to be quite windy and possibly unsealed).  We got a few flashes of
lightning (first lightning!!!) of the day on Boonah-Beaudesert Rd, and
then we saw some very nice CC lightning bolts heading north (they were
spreading through the cloud, although not crawlers).  We also saw one
CG…well, I saw one CG, Joey still hadn't seen her CG! :(  Just north of
Amberley on the Cunningham Hwy we got caught in some torrential
rain…visibility was quite bad but still could do 60-70km/h (more so
because we were following other cars in front and could see where they
were going).  Just as we got north of the storm there was a blinding
flash behind us…a few seconds later a loud bang!!!  The second CG,
although none of us actually saw the bolt.  The storms that had
originally developed were weakening though and the lightning overall was
infrequent.  I decided to drop Joey home and then head back home
myself.  What a chase to start the 2002-2003 season though!!!  It was
very exciting, although I was hoping for some good structure (which
didn't really happen).  But who can complain when you get basically
everything else!!!  I checked the car for dents a little closer…there's
some nice ones on the bonnet and a few on the roof, otherwise it faired
well (I was wondering how a new and potentially softer car would handle
hail).  There's a fairly prominent dent on the right hand side of the
bonnet though…but oh well, when I bought a new car in March I decided to
not let it effect my chasing habits otherwise there would be no point in
buying a car for that purpose (i.e. chasing).  It's "broken in" now so
the next lot of hail won't be so bad!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Looking for Information
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 13:56:01 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi to All,

Talking recently to some rellies who live near Myocum (about 13km by road
west of Byron Bay). They recounted their experience with a bad storm which
almost destroyed their 100 + year old (and solidly built) home on their
farm.

I undertook to get what information I could on the storm, being of the
opinion that someone on this list would have spotted and monitored it. So
that is the request, information - anyone?? Specifically - radar loops, sat
images, damage/storm reports.

Details as I have been told (and remembered) them -

Date was 16th of June 2002

Fierce winds in the storm came from the (approx) North West (apparently
unusual, as storms there usually come from the South West)

Damage was in a very narrow path. Sheds ~ 200m south of the house were
hardly hit. Another homestead ~ 800m to the north was not damaged, but
experienced strong winds and torrential rain (I can't recall anyone talking
about hail, but there may have been some).

There was talk of a "tornado", but when I was there a couple of weeks ago,
my limited knowledge and observations suggested straight line winds, but
maybe swirling about a (fair) bit. However there was not much evidence left.

Large trees knocked down and smashed, smaller trees snapped or twisted off.
The roof of the house landed about 60m downwind. Timbers were driven deeply
into the ground some distance from the house site. Some fences destroyed.

I was told that the local SES, who helped them in the aftermath, said they
had watched the storm on radar and were not surprised to get a call from
someone in the area.

Fortunately the rellies were not home at the time - they were bogged in a
ditch on the side of the road between the highway and home! Friends got them
out after the storm, and they arrived home to an even worse experience.

That is all the info I have. Should have asked more questions of more people
(and written it down!), but was there on another mission with little spare
time.

Would appreciate any help with information. Please e-mail me privately if
you think necessary.

Thanks in anticipation.
Bill,
Proserpine (still dry, too dry!)



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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic storm chances Sat/Sun
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 14:04:05 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Oct 2002 04:04:06.0215 (UTC) FILETIME=[13B50D70:01C27012]
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<x-flowed>
Hi all.

What do people reckon about the system approaching for Sat & Sunday?

Plenty of heating forcast for Saturday!


Fingers crossed!!

Who's up for a day out chasing?


Liam


_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Disclaimer
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 14:16:01 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Hi List,

I have been reading the forecasts of a certain long-range forecaster for
some time now, but never read the "fine print" which, some little time ago,
began to appear folowing his forecasts. Thought I'd share it with you all.

"It may be pointed out here and clearly understood that forecasts are not
one hundred percent accurate and sometimes may not even eventuate. The
predictions herewith are determined on predicted tides only and not on the
tide heights that may actually occur, this was where an element of error
could happen. Natural movement in the earth's crust, volcanic eruptions and
earthquakes alter tide heights thereby changing anticipated weather
patterns."

Go BoM !!

Regards,
Bill,
Proserpine.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [203.220.153.20]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Looking for Information
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 14:47:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Hi Bill!
Yes, that region was badly hit along with a few other towns on June 16th. I
was chasing near Casino that day and saw a few houses with their rooves
gone! I have written up a report for that day with radar/satpic/charts etc
if you're interested. I didn't chase the storm that hit that area, but I saw
some of the damage later, and it was pretty increadible!!! There was no
large hail that day anywhere I don't think, mainy just strong winds and very
heavy rain with smaller sized stones. Anyway, hope this helps:
http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/storm_chasing/2002/docs/2002-06-01.htm

Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
----- Original Message -----
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 1:56 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Looking for Information


> Hi to All,
>
> Talking recently to some rellies who live near Myocum (about 13km by road
> west of Byron Bay). They recounted their experience with a bad storm which
> almost destroyed their 100 + year old (and solidly built) home on their
> farm.
>
> I undertook to get what information I could on the storm, being of the
> opinion that someone on this list would have spotted and monitored it. So
> that is the request, information - anyone?? Specifically - radar loops,
sat
> images, damage/storm reports.
>
> Details as I have been told (and remembered) them -
>
> Date was 16th of June 2002
>
> Fierce winds in the storm came from the (approx) North West (apparently
> unusual, as storms there usually come from the South West)
>
> Damage was in a very narrow path. Sheds ~ 200m south of the house were
> hardly hit. Another homestead ~ 800m to the north was not damaged, but
> experienced strong winds and torrential rain (I can't recall anyone
talking
> about hail, but there may have been some).
>
> There was talk of a "tornado", but when I was there a couple of weeks ago,
> my limited knowledge and observations suggested straight line winds, but
> maybe swirling about a (fair) bit. However there was not much evidence
left.
>
> Large trees knocked down and smashed, smaller trees snapped or twisted
off.
> The roof of the house landed about 60m downwind. Timbers were driven
deeply
> into the ground some distance from the house site. Some fences destroyed.
>
> I was told that the local SES, who helped them in the aftermath, said they
> had watched the storm on radar and were not surprised to get a call from
> someone in the area.
>
> Fortunately the rellies were not home at the time - they were bogged in a
> ditch on the side of the road between the highway and home! Friends got
them
> out after the storm, and they arrived home to an even worse experience.
>
> That is all the info I have. Should have asked more questions of more
people
> (and written it down!), but was there on another mission with little spare
> time.
>
> Would appreciate any help with information. Please e-mail me privately if
> you think necessary.
>
> Thanks in anticipation.
> Bill,
> Proserpine (still dry, too dry!)
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 17:24:38 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storm chances Sat/Sun
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 02:04 PM 10/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Who's up for a day out chasing?

Well, I've got a slack weekend to fill, so I might be out there if the 
forecast looks good enough. :)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
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I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian, or
you can go directly to the page at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.

There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should be,
you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after real
time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are developing.
In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other areas.
The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get some
good mouse exercise.

There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts use
clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as they're
filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.

In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline maps
of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is very
useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
available 15 mins past the hour.

Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement (bearing in
mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC :laugh:)

Cheers

Laurier

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:49:11 +1000
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Fantastic addition to a great site.

Cheers
---------------------------------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------------------
Member of:
Australian Severe Weather Association.
www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------------------------
This email is virus free.
Scanned before leaving my mailbox
using Norton Antivirus 2002 for Win2k
Scanned with the latest definition File.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 9:33 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available


> I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian, or
> you can go directly to the page at
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
>
> There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
be,
> you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
real
> time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
developing.
> In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
areas.
> The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get some
> good mouse exercise.
>
> There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts use
> clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as they're
> filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
>
> In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
maps
> of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is very
> useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> available 15 mins past the hour.
>
> Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement (bearing
in
> mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC :laugh:)
>
> Cheers
>
> Laurier
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [144.134.113.72]
From: "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 22:31:30 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Oct 2002 12:31:31.0763 (UTC) FILETIME=[F6AB0030:01C27058]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Laurier,
I join Simon in congratulating you on a job well done.Now we need a 
significant Wx event to see it at its best.
Gavin Southside Weather Canberra A.C.T.


>From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
>
>I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
>uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
>southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian, or
>you can go directly to the page at
>http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
>
>There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
>synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should be,
>you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after 
>real
>time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
>maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are developing.
>In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
>covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other areas.
>The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
>files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get some
>good mouse exercise.
>
>There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
>synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
>guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts use
>clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
>gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as they're
>filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
>
>In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline 
>maps
>of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is very
>useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
>available 15 mins past the hour.
>
>Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement (bearing in
>mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC :laugh:)
>
>Cheers
>
>Laurier
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------




_________________________________________________________________
Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 08:44:47 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Laurier,
If that's not the work of a genius I'd love to see what would be. An
excellent addition which will be of incalculable usefulness.
Congratulations!
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 9:33 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available


> I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian, or
> you can go directly to the page at
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
>
> There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
be,
> you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
real
> time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
developing.
> In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
areas.
> The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get some
> good mouse exercise.
>
> There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts use
> clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as they're
> filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
>
> In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
maps
> of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is very
> useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> available 15 mins past the hour.
>
> Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement (bearing
in
> mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC :laugh:)
>
> Cheers
>
> Laurier
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [203.109.174.222]
From: "John Roenfeldt" <wa_tornado at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 08:40:39 +0800
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Oct 2002 00:41:22.0819 (UTC) FILETIME=[EC2BDD30:01C270BE]
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Excellent Laurier,

We have needed current maps like this for a long time

Well done,

John Roenfeldt


----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 7:33 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available


> I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian, or
> you can go directly to the page at
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
>
> There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
be,
> you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
real
> time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
developing.
> In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
areas.
> The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get some
> good mouse exercise.
>
> There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts use
> clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as they're
> filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
>
> In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
maps
> of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is very
> useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> available 15 mins past the hour.
>
> Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement (bearing
in
> mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC :laugh:)
>
> Cheers
>
> Laurier
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rain & Baro Pressure
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 19:56:11 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'October to All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We just got 
4IN(101.6mm) rain from a slow-moving low-pressure system. I called the AWS at 
Mena Airport (during the rain)and the baro pressure was 30.09IN(1018 hPa). To 
me, this seems to be a high baromeric reading for having bad weather. Usually 
here, we start looking for stormy(bad) weather when the baro starts falling 
below 29.80IN(1009 hPA); in some storms our baro has been close to 29.50IN(999 
hPa). I thought a baro at 30.00IN(1015 hPa)[or above]&nbsp;would indicate fair 
weather. My question would be: How high can the barometer be during foul 
weather?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks for your help!&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 09:10:29 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


As several others have already said, you have done a great job with 
these charts.
Very useful indeed and with so much info, yet they download so quickly 
even here in Asia where download times from Aussie servers can so 
frequently timeout before you get the page.  Each chart is fully 
displayed within three seconds of the click.
Great work!

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available

> I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian,
> or
> you can go directly to the page at
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
> 
> There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
> be,
> you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
> real
> time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
> developing.
> In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
> areas.
> The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get
> some
> good mouse exercise.
> 
> There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts
> use
> clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as
> they're
> filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
> 
> In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
> maps
> of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is
> very
> useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> available 15 mins past the hour.
> 
> Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement
> (bearing in
> mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC
> :laugh:)
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Laurier
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain & Baro Pressure
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 11:13:30 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A classic example of this in Australia was in June 
1967 when the barometer reached 1046 hPa over Tasmania (=near or over 1030 over 
eastern NSW) accompanied by flood rains on parts of the coast. The cause..A cold 
pool in the upper air and subsequent low pressure offshore. Low pressure doesn't 
always mean rain either.It depends on a lot of other facotrs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 11, 2002 10:56 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Rain &amp; Baro 
  Pressure</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'October to All:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We just 
  got 4IN(101.6mm) rain from a slow-moving low-pressure system. I called the AWS 
  at Mena Airport (during the rain)and the baro pressure was 30.09IN(1018 hPa). 
  To me, this seems to be a high baromeric reading for having bad weather. 
  Usually here, we start looking for stormy(bad) weather when the baro starts 
  falling below 29.80IN(1009 hPA); in some storms our baro has been close to 
  29.50IN(999 hPa). I thought a baro at 30.00IN(1015 hPa)[or above]&nbsp;would 
  indicate fair weather. My question would be: How high can the barometer be 
  during foul weather?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks for your 
  help!&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
  Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain & Baro Pressure
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 13:28:03 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Dave and Keith</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Here on the west coast in the summer above 1013hpa 
showers stop.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In the winter a different story, I have seen well 
above 1020hpa with foul weather.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chas </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Strahan Tasmania</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=kbarnett at bigpond.net.au href="mailto:kbarnett at bigpond.net.au">Keith 
  Barnett</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 11, 2002 12:13 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Rain &amp; Baro 
  Pressure</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A classic example of this in Australia was in 
  June 1967 when the barometer reached 1046 hPa over Tasmania (=near or over 
  1030 over eastern NSW) accompanied by flood rains on parts of the coast. The 
  cause..A cold pool in the upper air and subsequent low pressure offshore. Low 
  pressure doesn't always mean rain either.It depends on a lot of other 
  facotrs.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
  href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
  free.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 11, 2002 10:56 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Rain &amp; Baro 
    Pressure</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>G'October to All:</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
    size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; We just 
    got 4IN(101.6mm) rain from a slow-moving low-pressure system. I called the 
    AWS at Mena Airport (during the rain)and the baro pressure was 30.09IN(1018 
    hPa). To me, this seems to be a high baromeric reading for having bad 
    weather. Usually here, we start looking for stormy(bad) weather when the 
    baro starts falling below 29.80IN(1009 hPA); in some storms our baro has 
    been close to 29.50IN(999 hPa). I thought a baro at 30.00IN(1015 hPa)[or 
    above]&nbsp;would indicate fair weather. My question would be: How high can 
    the barometer be during foul weather?</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks for your 
    help!&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
    David Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 13:34:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hello Laurier

Great Charts!
The weather symbols are very interesting can you help me with the meaning of
columns
W C E a
http://www.australianweathernews.com/images/WxSymbols.jpg

Chas
Strahan Tasmania



----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 12:10 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available


> As several others have already said, you have done a great job with
> these charts.
> Very useful indeed and with so much info, yet they download so quickly
> even here in Asia where download times from Aussie servers can so
> frequently timeout before you get the page.  Each chart is fully
> displayed within three seconds of the click.
> Great work!
>
> Phil
> <><
>
> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
> Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>
> > I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> > uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> > southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian,
> > or
> > you can go directly to the page at
> > http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
> >
> > There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> > synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
> > be,
> > you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
> > real
> > time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> > maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
> > developing.
> > In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> > covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
> > areas.
> > The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> > files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get
> > some
> > good mouse exercise.
> >
> > There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> > synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> > guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts
> > use
> > clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> > gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as
> > they're
> > filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
> >
> > In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
> > maps
> > of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is
> > very
> > useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> > available 15 mins past the hour.
> >
> > Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement
> > (bearing in
> > mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC
> > :laugh:)
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Laurier
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Moisture build up QLD, NSW.
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 19:00:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Oct 2002 09:02:43.0231 (UTC) FILETIME=[F57E7AF0:01C27104]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, There appears to be some moisture&nbsp; 
build up (low to mid level) over eastern QLD and northeast NSW,&nbsp;a&nbsp;weak 
dry line also exists through east central QLD along a weak surface trough, it 
will be interesting to see if some of this moisture is&nbsp;advected to the 
south over the next 24 to 36 hours and interact with the approaching trough 
through SA. regards Clyve Herbert. </FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Morning glory images / Victorian sunsets
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 21:09:38 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

Robert Goler has sent more morning glory images form the 9th October
taken by Roger Smith from the Uni of Munich. It's an amazing
phenomenon!!!!  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/glory.htm

More photos from Victoria's spring weather to be found here
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02.htm  I spent 20 minutes
standing in the middle of the road dodging traffic tonight to get these
shots <g> & Clyve has been out photographing again!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moisture build up QLD, NSW.
Date: Fri, 11 Oct 2002 22:33:20 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Clyve, it appears that it will. If mid level cloud can stay 
away I think Sunday could be a nice storm day in eastern NSW, not enough shear 
for supercells, but interesting none the less.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 11, 2002 7:00 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Moisture build up QLD, 
  NSW.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, There appears to be some moisture&nbsp; 
  build up (low to mid level) over eastern QLD and northeast 
  NSW,&nbsp;a&nbsp;weak dry line also exists through east central QLD along a 
  weak surface trough, it will be interesting to see if some of this moisture 
  is&nbsp;advected to the south over the next 24 to 36 hours and interact with 
  the approaching trough through SA. regards Clyve Herbert. 
</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin images
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 00:06:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

have updated the Darwin 2002 page
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/darwin02.htm with a series of 12 images
taken by Paul Mosman.

Enjoy!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Storms today/tonight (Vic)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 03:14:40 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Oct 2002 17:14:40.0743 (UTC) FILETIME=[AF4D5F70:01C27149]
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<x-flowed>
Could be nice tomorrow night for lighting photos on the Doncaster 
shoppingtown roof!


Probably heading out westward in the early arvo for some chasing, and 
following things back east.


Liam

_________________________________________________________________
Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: "Andrew McDonald" <macca_wx at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Morning glory images / Victorian sunsets
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 07:31:01 +1000
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Well I can honestly say those pictures of the morning glory are amongst the
best I have ever seen.  Absolutely amazing!!!  Thanks to Robert for sending
those down and also to Jane for putting those up.

Macca-wx

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Friday, 11 October 2002 9:10 PM
To: Aussie-wx
Subject: aus-wx: Morning glory images / Victorian sunsets


Evening all,

Robert Goler has sent more morning glory images form the 9th October
taken by Roger Smith from the Uni of Munich. It's an amazing
phenomenon!!!!  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/glory.htm

More photos from Victoria's spring weather to be found here
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02.htm  I spent 20 minutes
standing in the middle of the road dodging traffic tonight to get these
shots <g> & Clyve has been out photographing again!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: "Sha" <bilby at useoz.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Morning glory images / Victorian sunsets
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 08:02:15 +1000
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Absolutely magnificent beauty that you guys have captured !!  Thanks so much
for sharing :)

Love
Sha


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 9:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Morning glory images / Victorian sunsets


Evening all,

Robert Goler has sent more morning glory images form the 9th October
taken by Roger Smith from the Uni of Munich. It's an amazing
phenomenon!!!!  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/glory.htm

More photos from Victoria's spring weather to be found here
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02.htm  I spent 20 minutes
standing in the middle of the road dodging traffic tonight to get these
shots <g> & Clyve has been out photographing again!

Jane




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Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:03:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms today/tonight (Vic)
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<x-flowed>
At 03:14 AM 12/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Could be nice tomorrow night for lighting photos on the Doncaster 
>shoppingtown roof!
>
>
>Probably heading out westward in the early arvo for some chasing, and 
>following things back east.

Keep us posted. I'll be on the road later today, but would be happy to 
divert if the opportunity for a chase comes up near the metro area. :)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:05:52 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW/QLD Storms Next Few Days...
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Hi all,

Looks like an interesting couple of days for storm lovers (and I'm sure
all the TDU people are getting itchy feet wondering where they'd be
going if they were fortunate enough to be on TDU yet!)  But alas...a
little over a month left (but not long!!!)

Today (Sat 12th...)

There's been some mention of the moisture buildup over central
Queensland, the satpics show this very well and if anything there could
be too much moisture!  There's a lot of moisture buildup in the mid
levels also before drying out significant in the higher levels.  This is
from a persistent easterly flow through the region.  One of my favourite
towns, Cunnamulla has a 9am observation of 26/14, not bad!  A 15-20 knot
NE'ly too, so quite reasonable.  Charleville is 24/13 (possibly under a
bit of cloud), but its NE'ly is 17-29 knots!  AVN is pushing a region of
moderate (LIs are -2 to -4) broad instability across from Augathella,
Charleville down to Cunnamulla, through Bourke and down into Cobar.  It
maxes out with -4 to -6 LIs through Bourke-Cunnamulla.  Interestingly
the trough though is placed a bit further west of this...this could end
up being a blessing as with the amount of cloud about, it might be good
to try and keep any convection to the afternoon.  Although there are
already some storms near Goondiwindi and then southwest of through in
the central region of NSW.  AVN is suggesting N'ly 850 winds at 20
knots, but slackens off the 700 flow in NSW down to 15 knots...further
north towards Cunnamulla-Charleville it's nicer with 20 and 20-25 near
Charleville from the WNW.  500mb is W'ly at 30 knots (starting to get a
bit weak), however there is a 90 knot jet running across most of
southern Queensland at 300mb from the W which is good, slackening off at
60-70 knots in northern NSW.  The LI max is tempting as it appears to be
sitting in clear air, but I'd be hesistant as storms that develop here
may not move and it could get cluttered.  I'd be thinking of sitting
around Cunnamulla-Charleville and playing the Mitchell Hwy...this is
probably a good compromise of instability, shear, cloud and trough
position.  Although most of the places along the trough should be OK. 
The main problem (if I were on TDU...is trying to move with the trough
as the trough moves quickly eastwards).

Tomorrow (Sun 13th...)

After enjoying a 4 day tour in central and western Queensland the main
trough decides it'd like to head east to visit the coastal regions again
- quickly too!  (Perhaps it left its sunnies behind...)  Marching across
half the state overnight, by tomorrow afternoon it basically sits over
the top of Sydney, through the Hunter, back through Tamworth, NW Slopes
and Plains and into the western Downs/eastern Maranoa.  AVN increases
the instability with -4 to -6 LIs through the western Downs, NW Slopes
and Plains, Hunter and northern Sydney region.  This is probably in
response to an upper trough moving through the region with upper temps
taking a dive be a degree or two.  The Hunter at first glance looks
quite good...there'll be some NW winds encroaching but at this stage I
wouldn't think it would dry out too much.  850 winds are NW'ly over the
Hunter at 20-25 knots, getting up to 30 knots over Sydney.  N NSW and S
QLD are only 20 knots.  700mb shows the main difference...20-25 knot
W'ly over S QLD, increasing to 30-35 knots over the Hunter and 40-45
knots near Sydney!  500mb shows a similar picture across the
region...35-40 knots over N NSW/S QLD and the Hunter...sneaking up to
40-45 knots W'ly over Sydney.  300mb could be stronger but not
bad...55-60 knots from the W...getting up to 65-70 knots into southern
Queensland.  But looking at things I like the Hunter (although I myself
if I were on TDU after chasing W QLD on Sat would probably head to the
Downs or NW Slopes and Plains)...if I can get enough of my assignments
done I might head into the Downs tomorrow.  SE Coast and Northern Rivers
also have a reasonable chance of storms...possibly more isolated towards
the ranges though because the trough will be further west.  It might
still be a bit cool though on Sunday...and I think that things may not
be the usual 'summer situation' at least for Queensland...we'll see.  A
lot of tomorrow though relies on how much convection develops today...as
that is my main concern, if too much cloud is produced then that changes
everything!  And with a weakish jet/mid levels it won't shoot rapidly
out to sea like we'd want it to.

Monday 14th onwards...

This is tough, with drier NW'ly winds pushing closer to the coast and
the possibility of the trough moving through too early for SE QLD on
Monday...I'd be thinking Wide Bay Burnett and then into Capricornia on
Tuesday.  These places don't look ideal as such...but I'm just trying to
think what I would do if I were on TDU and having a bit of fun thinking
about it :)  Any other opinions?

AC
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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW/QLD Storms Next Few Days...
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 13:49:21 +1000
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Hi Supercell, your analogy looks pretty good and a lot of it, here in
Victoria we need just a bit more moisture,this looks better in the east of
the state. The front looks to be a 'bulger' that is it seems it will pass
more quickly through northern Victoria and advance across southern Victoria
from the northwest (become positive longitunal) as the parent low slows down
southwest of Mt Gambier, sometimes this can be a good thing with
north-easterly flow ahead of the trough, and colder air over running in the
upper layers. About Cunnamulla being your favourite  town I hope this is
meant weatherwise! although the cafe was a good meeting point. regards Clyve
H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 10:05 AM
Subject: aus-wx: NSW/QLD Storms Next Few Days...


> Hi all,
>
> Looks like an interesting couple of days for storm lovers (and I'm sure
> all the TDU people are getting itchy feet wondering where they'd be
> going if they were fortunate enough to be on TDU yet!)  But alas...a
> little over a month left (but not long!!!)
>
> Today (Sat 12th...)
>
> There's been some mention of the moisture buildup over central
> Queensland, the satpics show this very well and if anything there could
> be too much moisture!  There's a lot of moisture buildup in the mid
> levels also before drying out significant in the higher levels.  This is
> from a persistent easterly flow through the region.  One of my favourite
> towns, Cunnamulla has a 9am observation of 26/14, not bad!  A 15-20 knot
> NE'ly too, so quite reasonable.  Charleville is 24/13 (possibly under a
> bit of cloud), but its NE'ly is 17-29 knots!  AVN is pushing a region of
> moderate (LIs are -2 to -4) broad instability across from Augathella,
> Charleville down to Cunnamulla, through Bourke and down into Cobar.  It
> maxes out with -4 to -6 LIs through Bourke-Cunnamulla.  Interestingly
> the trough though is placed a bit further west of this...this could end
> up being a blessing as with the amount of cloud about, it might be good
> to try and keep any convection to the afternoon.  Although there are
> already some storms near Goondiwindi and then southwest of through in
> the central region of NSW.  AVN is suggesting N'ly 850 winds at 20
> knots, but slackens off the 700 flow in NSW down to 15 knots...further
> north towards Cunnamulla-Charleville it's nicer with 20 and 20-25 near
> Charleville from the WNW.  500mb is W'ly at 30 knots (starting to get a
> bit weak), however there is a 90 knot jet running across most of
> southern Queensland at 300mb from the W which is good, slackening off at
> 60-70 knots in northern NSW.  The LI max is tempting as it appears to be
> sitting in clear air, but I'd be hesistant as storms that develop here
> may not move and it could get cluttered.  I'd be thinking of sitting
> around Cunnamulla-Charleville and playing the Mitchell Hwy...this is
> probably a good compromise of instability, shear, cloud and trough
> position.  Although most of the places along the trough should be OK.
> The main problem (if I were on TDU...is trying to move with the trough
> as the trough moves quickly eastwards).
>
> Tomorrow (Sun 13th...)
>
> After enjoying a 4 day tour in central and western Queensland the main
> trough decides it'd like to head east to visit the coastal regions again
> - quickly too!  (Perhaps it left its sunnies behind...)  Marching across
> half the state overnight, by tomorrow afternoon it basically sits over
> the top of Sydney, through the Hunter, back through Tamworth, NW Slopes
> and Plains and into the western Downs/eastern Maranoa.  AVN increases
> the instability with -4 to -6 LIs through the western Downs, NW Slopes
> and Plains, Hunter and northern Sydney region.  This is probably in
> response to an upper trough moving through the region with upper temps
> taking a dive be a degree or two.  The Hunter at first glance looks
> quite good...there'll be some NW winds encroaching but at this stage I
> wouldn't think it would dry out too much.  850 winds are NW'ly over the
> Hunter at 20-25 knots, getting up to 30 knots over Sydney.  N NSW and S
> QLD are only 20 knots.  700mb shows the main difference...20-25 knot
> W'ly over S QLD, increasing to 30-35 knots over the Hunter and 40-45
> knots near Sydney!  500mb shows a similar picture across the
> region...35-40 knots over N NSW/S QLD and the Hunter...sneaking up to
> 40-45 knots W'ly over Sydney.  300mb could be stronger but not
> bad...55-60 knots from the W...getting up to 65-70 knots into southern
> Queensland.  But looking at things I like the Hunter (although I myself
> if I were on TDU after chasing W QLD on Sat would probably head to the
> Downs or NW Slopes and Plains)...if I can get enough of my assignments
> done I might head into the Downs tomorrow.  SE Coast and Northern Rivers
> also have a reasonable chance of storms...possibly more isolated towards
> the ranges though because the trough will be further west.  It might
> still be a bit cool though on Sunday...and I think that things may not
> be the usual 'summer situation' at least for Queensland...we'll see.  A
> lot of tomorrow though relies on how much convection develops today...as
> that is my main concern, if too much cloud is produced then that changes
> everything!  And with a weakish jet/mid levels it won't shoot rapidly
> out to sea like we'd want it to.
>
> Monday 14th onwards...
>
> This is tough, with drier NW'ly winds pushing closer to the coast and
> the possibility of the trough moving through too early for SE QLD on
> Monday...I'd be thinking Wide Bay Burnett and then into Capricornia on
> Tuesday.  These places don't look ideal as such...but I'm just trying to
> think what I would do if I were on TDU and having a bit of fun thinking
> about it :)  Any other opinions?
>
> AC
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms today/tonight (Vic)
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 13:45:33 +0930
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as long as you don't get arrested for trying to break and enter. lol
good luck!

regards richard

----- Original Message -----
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 12, 2002 2:44 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms today/tonight (Vic)


> Could be nice tomorrow night for lighting photos on the Doncaster
> shoppingtown roof!
>
>
> Probably heading out westward in the early arvo for some chasing, and
> following things back east.
>
>
> Liam
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com
>
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>

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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 18:02:05 +1000
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Thanks Phil and others for your compliments. Quick downloading was one of
the aims, as I'd guess that users will probably want to open up a number of
charts to make comparisons. Glad to hear that it's working in the real
world!

Cheers

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Phil Smith
> Sent: Friday, 11 October, 2002 11:10 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>
>
> As several others have already said, you have done a great job with
> these charts.
> Very useful indeed and with so much info, yet they download so quickly
> even here in Asia where download times from Aussie servers can so
> frequently timeout before you get the page.  Each chart is fully
> displayed within three seconds of the click.
> Great work!
>
> Phil
> <><
>
> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
> Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>
> > I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> > uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> > southeastern Australia to http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian,
> > or
> > you can go directly to the page at
> > http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
> >
> > There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> > synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as it should
> > be,
> > you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15 minutes after
> > real
> > time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> > maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
> > developing.
> > In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> > covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
> > areas.
> > The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of observations, but the
> > files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get
> > some
> > good mouse exercise.
> >
> > There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> > synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> > guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts
> > use
> > clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> > gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as
> > they're
> > filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
> >
> > In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind streamline
> > maps
> > of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is
> > very
> > useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving. These are also
> > available 15 mins past the hour.
> >
> > Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement
> > (bearing in
> > mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC
> > :laugh:)
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Laurier
> >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 18:05:03 +1000
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Hi Chas

The symbol tables I put up were temporary ones until I received more
appropriate ones from Tim Vasquez, which I now have, and they're up on the
site. The ones you referred to were scans of some old UKMO reference books.
For the record:

W = past weather symbol
C = Generic cloud symbol (used for plotting the cloud codes referred to in
the international exchange 8-groups in the synop code)
E = state of the earth, e.g. frozen, wet, damp, etc (we don't use this)
a = pressure tendency

Cheers

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Chas & Helen
> Osborn
> Sent: Friday, 11 October, 2002 12:34 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>
>
> Hello Laurier
>
> Great Charts!
> The weather symbols are very interesting can you help me with the
> meaning of
> columns
> W C E a
> http://www.australianweathernews.com/images/WxSymbols.jpg
>
> Chas
> Strahan Tasmania
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 12:10 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
>
>
> > As several others have already said, you have done a great job with
> > these charts.
> > Very useful indeed and with so much info, yet they download so quickly
> > even here in Asia where download times from Aussie servers can so
> > frequently timeout before you get the page.  Each chart is fully
> > displayed within three seconds of the click.
> > Great work!
> >
> > Phil
> > <><
> >
> > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> > Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2002 21:33:15 +1000
> > Subject: aus-wx: Hourly synoptic charts (and more) now available
> >
> > > I've bitten the bullet and now have Digital Atmosphere hard at work,
> > > uploading hourly plotted and analysed synoptic charts of Australia and
> > > southeastern Australia to
> http://australianweathernews.com/]Australian,
> > > or
> > > you can go directly to the page at
> > > http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml.
> > >
> > > There are enough AWS's around the country to allow a pretty accurate
> > > synoptic chart to be drawn hourly. If everything's working as
> it should
> > > be,
> > > you can get a fully plotted and analysed surface chart 15
> minutes after
> > > real
> > > time. There's a 24-hour archive, so you can open up several windows,
> > > maximise them, then do your own animation to see how things are
> > > developing.
> > > In addition to the full Australian chart, there is a more detailed one
> > > covering NSW, Vic and Tas. If there's demand, I'll do ones for other
> > > areas.
> > > The charts are pretty big so as to get in lots of
> observations, but the
> > > files are small. Those with neanderthal screen resolutions will get
> > > some
> > > good mouse exercise.
> > >
> > > There are similar 3-hourly charts (with 24-hour archive) based on full
> > > synoptic data, complete with cloud and weather symbols. There's also a
> > > guide, so you can work out what the symbols mean. Because these charts
> > > use
> > > clock-time data (e.g. 9am local time), it takes 3 hours for them to
> > > gradually populate with observations, so they look a bit wierd as
> > > they're
> > > filling up. They are updated each 15 minutes as new data comes in.
> > >
> > > In addition, there are hourly temperature, humidity and wind
> streamline
> > > maps
> > > of Australia (with 24-hour archive). Animating the streamline maps is
> > > very
> > > useful in seeing where any convergence lines are moving.
> These are also
> > > available 15 mins past the hour.
> > >
> > > Let me know what you think, and any suggestions for improvement
> > > (bearing in
> > > mind that I don't have the programming genius of Andrew and TWC
> > > :laugh:)
> > >
> > > Cheers
> > >
> > > Laurier
> > >
> > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > +
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > > your
> > >  message.
> > >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Gabo island rainfall, 5/10/02
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 18:53:40 +1000
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I've just noticed that Gabo Islands storm fall of 93.4mm in the 24 hours to
9am 5/10/02 was an October record. Given that there's a 134 year record,
this is a bit significant! The previous record was 90.9, though I don't know
when. They had a further 78mm in the 24 hours to 9am 6/10/02. However 165mm
fell in the 9 hours from 6am to 3pm on 5/10. I'm surprised that this event
hasn't been more remarked upon; animating the WeatherZone lightning images,
it's clear that a succession of thunderstorms kept backbuilding over the
southeast of NSW/Vic. As a result, Gabo reported either moderate or heavy
storms at each 3-hourly observation from 3am to 3pm.

Seems a pity there were no chasers there. For once, all that was needed was
to sit and watch!

Laurier

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Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 00:10:29 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Hi all.
We had a fierce electrical storm rip through Hamilton 
at about 10.30pm tonight.  Not much rain in it but the 
lightning was sensational!!!! Cgs every second or so 
and went straight over the top of my house. Had two 
flangs here with the second hitting not much more 
than a few hundred metres away at a guess which 
knocked the power off in the whole area. It also 
scared the crap out of me and lightning has to hit 
pretty close for it to do that. :P
Apart from that we have had numerous showers 
through since about 6pm with the odd rumble along 
with it. If you call each of those showers a storm 
(which you should because they were electrically 
active) you could then say I've had about 7 storms 
tonight!!! LOL...
Paul Yole has had fun chasing in the Stawell/Ararat 
region but I'll let him tell you all about that...

Tim Eckert
Hamilton
SW Victoria
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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.96.70]
From: "Catherine Elliott" <faerinelda at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA issued for Vic
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 01:00:02 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 12 Oct 2002 15:00:02.0476 (UTC) FILETIME=[0AB166C0:01C27200]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>

Thought I would jump the gun on some of you other guys and let you know that 
in Frankston we have had really steady rumbles for about 20 mins now, jumped 
online at 1/2 past and no warning from BOM but just checked following 
warning appeared.

IDV26400

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE


NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


Priority Severe Thunderstorm Advice

Issued at 12:35am on Sunday the 13th of October 2002 for the Central 
district
and for the West and South Gippsland district.

Thunderstorms are being observed over the Central district moving to the
southeast.  These thunderstorms may result in  severe thunderstorms during
tonight.

People in these districts are warned that the storms may produce:

- Flash flooding
- Damaging winds
- Large hail




The SES advises that people should keep a lookout for thunderstorms and, if
storms approach, secure loose items, move vehicles under cover, then stay
indoors until the storms have passed. Also do not drive vehicles through 
flooded
areas.

This advice will be updated at 3.30am Sunday.


This one also just appeared as i went to copy previous. have fun chasing 
guys. i wish i had film in my camera i can see lightnning it is great.

IDV26500

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Top Priority
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

for the Melbourne metropolitan area.

Issued at 12:55am on Sunday the 13th of October 2002

A thunderstorm southeast of Mt Macedon is moving southeastwards into the
northern and northeastern suburbs. This thunderstorm appears on radar to be
severe and people in the northern and northeastern suburbs are warned that
thunderstorms could produce:
Heavy rain with local flash flooding
Large hail
Damaging wind.


[ Radio media to play Severe Weather News Tag Alert 4 here ]

The current thunderstorm warning, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, 
indicates
the strong probability of intense storm activity in this area.

In the interests of community safety the SES suggests some simple 
precautions:
- Secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home, then:
- Stay indoors if possible
- If you are outdoors, avoid sheltering under trees
- Listen to the radio station for the storm updates
- Switch off computers and electrical appliances
- Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas

This warning will be updated at 3am.


bye.

cath


_________________________________________________________________
Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 01:31:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Guys,

1:30am here and the storm is just about over Mooroolbark.  Little bit of
rain, but heaps of anvil crawlers and thunder.  Can't see if there are any
CG's happening because of the trees and most of the crawlers are hidden by
MLC.

Can't think of anything nicer to be woken up by.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 13, 2002 12:10 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian storms


> Hi all.
> We had a fierce electrical storm rip through Hamilton
> at about 10.30pm tonight.  Not much rain in it but the
> lightning was sensational!!!! Cgs every second or so
> and went straight over the top of my house. Had two
> flangs here with the second hitting not much more
> than a few hundred metres away at a guess which
> knocked the power off in the whole area. It also
> scared the crap out of me and lightning has to hit
> pretty close for it to do that. :P
> Apart from that we have had numerous showers
> through since about 6pm with the odd rumble along
> with it. If you call each of those showers a storm
> (which you should because they were electrically
> active) you could then say I've had about 7 storms
> tonight!!! LOL...
> Paul Yole has had fun chasing in the Stawell/Ararat
> region but I'll let him tell you all about that...
>
> Tim Eckert
> Hamilton
> SW Victoria
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 09:09:26 -0700 (PDT)
From: christian monahan <danoe1972 at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,
heaps of CGs here, storm came from West and has now
kind of split over nthn suburbs and is going towards
Montmorency and towards Epping, got some great shots.
lots of thunder, been going for over 2 hrs now.

__________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
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Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:32:53 -0700 (PDT)
From: christian monahan <danoe1972 at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


hi again,
have to share this. chased storm up into
Plenty,probably the best visual display i've ever
seen. there was literally 2 flashes a second, lots of
multiple CGs,no rain.it kept moving N/E without
dissipating in the slightest taking up the entire
skyline. that was cool.anyone else watch it?

__________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
http://faith.yahoo.com
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From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 09:40:20 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,
        Was awoken by a distant rumble at 0145 this morning. By the tracker
at around 2300 local, I was not expecting anything!! We had two storms
here - both fast movers moving NE - SW, with lightning every half second or
less. Most was totally obscured though it was an excellent show and lit up
some amazing cloud structures (but I have broken in my Vidcam, and will
check for captures today). The second storm dropped hail that was up to the
size of an apricot stone.
    All up we got 19mm, and a heap of video.
Cheers from Broadford - Supercell Country:-))
Peter


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From: "Andrew McDonald" <macca_wx at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 09:55:03 +1000
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Morning all,

See below for the report I sent to the weatherzone forum at 4:30 this
morning.....

_______________________________________________

BACK!!!!!!!!!! I MADE IT!!!!! YES YES YES!!!!!!!!!!!

OK - Put it this way....I chased and drove 990km today.....and here is the
report for the first 830km......I got SFA....

But as for the last 160km!!!!!!! WHOLY ****
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THIS WAS THE BEST OVERNIGHT STORM OUTBREAK I HAVE SEEN SINCE OCT 18th 2000 -
ACTUALLY NOW THAT I THINK ABOUT IT....THIS WAS HEAPS BETTER THAN THAT!!. I
first saw lightning to my DISTANT SW from about Tocumwal and it was
relatively infrequent (maybe 1 every 10 seconds at absolute best) until I
got to the servo on the Hume Hwy near Seymour. A quick suck on the good old
ULP and the car was ready for REAL (read Victorian and not NSW) action. As
soon as I left the servo it went BESERK!!!! Since about 11:30pm there has
been strobe (AND I MEAN STROBE AS IN UP TO 5 FLASHES PER SECOND!!!!)
lightning. The cold upper air interacted with the warm NE'ly flow and
BANG!!!!!!!! BIG BIG BIG BANG!!!!! Cells were visually VERY VERY strong with
powerful updrafts and very good inflow/outflow organisation. Visually they
looked severe. I watched as the first "warned" cell tracked down across the
N and NE suburbs of Melbourne from a lookout near Wandong getting about 30
mins of video as the cell cruised about 10km to my S (maybe a tad less). I
then gave chase down to Kalkallo where I realised there was more coming down
from the NW so I stopped and watched that stuff head for me. I then headed
for South MOrang where I knew there was a good lookout near the top of a
hill (thinking FLANGS for the video of course). I didn't make it to the
lookout before the car was enveloped in hail fog and the road was almost
totally covered (but for the car tyre tracks). I pulled over (well - kinda
slid) off the road and jumped out to find a dense cover (drifts of 2 inches)
hail up to about 1.2cm. WHOA!!!!!! I WAS IN HAIL HEAVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!! After
some video of that (with the ominous reminder, in the form of thunder, from
the approaching next storm) I headed to my original destination (the lookout
in South MOrang). Again I didn't make it that far as the hail on the road
(and the leaf/other debris) got thicker and thicker until there was no more
road....hehe - fun to drive on. I pulled over again and the hail was now in
drifts of 3-4inches deep with fast rivers of hail/water/ice running down the
sides of the road (all this from the first cell to pass over the NE burbs).
The stones were a little larger too (1.5cm) so given the increase I gave the
BoM a quick call and reported the hail. Anyway - upon finally reaching my
destination (the lookout) the storm to my NW was only about 5km away and
booming constantly with thunder. There was still hail everywhere at the
lookout so I grabbed the torch and went in search of larger hail - and found
it quite easily. Hail up to 2.5-3cm. I was now VERY VERY happy. Anyway - the
cell to the NW was spitting out some f'unbelievable CG's so I jumped in the
car and started videoing to the NW. I got about 10 (guessing) relatively
close CG's before I decided to climb back into the front seat and start
shooting towards the top of the hill (about 80-100m away). A few close CG's
hit off to the SE and also over just behind the hill (all within about 500m)
and then it happened. FLAASSSSSHHHHHHH (picture seeing 3 forked lightning
very very very close right in front of you)
CCCRRRRRRRAACCCCCCCCCCKKKKKBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
MM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well....I totally lost it....hehehe. The
MMMAAAACCCCCCCCCCAAAAAAAAAa cry went out and it was just all over the shop
(for those of you who don't knwo its just a figure of speech when one gets
rather excited). I recovered from that incident (my heart rate went back
down from about 20,000bpm) and decided to drive over the hill to watch the
storm as it tore off to the SE. Over the hill I go and hello boys....the
police are there. The road to Whittlesea was closed due to trees down. (note
there was still copious amounts of hail here too - up to 2cm - not bad for
30mins after the storm). I parked the car, armed myself with the video
camera and marched on down to the roadblock and introduced myself as being a
member of ASWA to which I was greeted with great enthusiasm. The two cops
were very friendly and were happy for me to stroll around taking footage of
the 2.5ft diametre tree which had just causually been snapped off by the
wind and layed nicely across half of the road. THe SES was about 80m further
down the road removing another WHOLE tree off the road. After about 15 mins
they came down to the other tree and one of the cops and I and the two SES
guys set to work on this beast. I asked them if they had heard of any other
damage and they said there were buildings damaged in Whittlesea. After a
while when most of the work was done I headed off to get some more footage
(hoping to catch the line of storms again...hehehe). I got up to the lookout
at Kangaroo Ground and realised things were disappearing off into the abyss
of the E ranges and imediately decided enough was enough. At 3:30am it was
time to head home. So I turned around and left the storm to flash away at
about 1-2 flashes per second and came home. And here I am - far far far too
excited to sleep so I think I'll go and watch the footage from
tonight....hehe.

Hope the rest of you had a gawk at this stuff tonight as it was the best
show we've had here in Melbourne since Feb 1st. I'm not sure if others would
think so but I'd rate this as better than Feb (partly because I drove 990km
to see it and the day was somewhat marginal until dinner time (the waitress
at the pub in Narranderra was not too bad....hehe)).

On that note, I bid thee all farewell.

Cheerio,

Macca-wx

_________________________________________________

It sure was an awesome night and I have since reviewed the video footage and
will endeavor to do some captures today.  Interesting to see the wording of
the first warning from the BoM - they based it on radar alone.  It makes me
wonder what it looked like on radar (supercell?  or just severe?) as the
shear on last nights sounding was not uncondusive for supercells with 30knts
from the NE up to about 890mb swinging around to 30knts from the NW at
700mb.  Any BoM guys care to comment?

Hope all the NSW and QLD people have a good day today.

Macca



-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of christian
monahan
Sent: Sunday, 13 October 2002 3:33 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms


hi again,
have to share this. chased storm up into
Plenty,probably the best visual display i've ever
seen. there was literally 2 flashes a second, lots of
multiple CGs,no rain.it kept moving N/E without
dissipating in the slightest taking up the entire
skyline. that was cool.anyone else watch it?

__________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
http://faith.yahoo.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dry Fronts
Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 19:41:18 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello to all my fellow weather 
watchers:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; To date this year 
in Mena, we've had 13 cold fronts (Canadian &amp; Pacific) come through which 
were TOTALLY dry., a few others brought very little rain. (A few clouds and a 
wind shift--to Northerly--would mark their passage).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I was 
wondering if Australia has many dry frontal passages?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>P.S. I also got an e-mail from Shelly (<A 
href="mailto:shellypy at hotmail.com)--from">shellypy at hotmail.com)--from</A> 
Sydney--asking about raindays for this year. I replied to the e-mail, got a 
reply back, ran a virus test on my computer which said I was 
virus-free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Wishing everyone much Love and an awesome week&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 11:12:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana size=2>Yes we look forward to hearing your updates from 
a 'different' part of Australia.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana size=2>dann</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Verdana size=2><A 
href="http://www.sydneystormchasers.com">www.</FONT><FONT face=Verdana 
size=2>sydneystormchasers.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 20, 2002 9:37 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan 
  Weather</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"Big" climate change! Good luck.</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=hosborn at tassie.net.au href="mailto:hosborn at tassie.net.au">Chas 
    &amp; Helen Osborn</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie weather</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 20, 2002 6:55 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan 
    Weather</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks 
    we will in Kalumburu in Western Australia!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Climate change!!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Check out.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://www.kalumburu.com/">http://www.kalumburu.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sad to be leaving, excited about 
    moving.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chas</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>for the last time</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu 
    WA</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 11:32:14 +1000
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Hi Macca......What can I say, it appears that you enjoyed yourself!. Hip Hip
for Macca. On a more serious note your analysis of conditions was a bulls
eye, here in Geelong we had a respectable storm between 0130 and 0300hrs
with powerful CG's and some nice garden rain...regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Andrew McDonald <macca_wx at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 13, 2002 9:55 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian storms


> Morning all,
>
> See below for the report I sent to the weatherzone forum at 4:30 this
> morning.....
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> BACK!!!!!!!!!! I MADE IT!!!!! YES YES YES!!!!!!!!!!!
>
> OK - Put it this way....I chased and drove 990km today.....and here is the
> report for the first 830km......I got SFA....
>
> But as for the last 160km!!!!!!! WHOLY ****
> !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
> THIS WAS THE BEST OVERNIGHT STORM OUTBREAK I HAVE SEEN SINCE OCT 18th
2000 -
> ACTUALLY NOW THAT I THINK ABOUT IT....THIS WAS HEAPS BETTER THAN THAT!!. I
> first saw lightning to my DISTANT SW from about Tocumwal and it was
> relatively infrequent (maybe 1 every 10 seconds at absolute best) until I
> got to the servo on the Hume Hwy near Seymour. A quick suck on the good
old
> ULP and the car was ready for REAL (read Victorian and not NSW) action. As
> soon as I left the servo it went BESERK!!!! Since about 11:30pm there has
> been strobe (AND I MEAN STROBE AS IN UP TO 5 FLASHES PER SECOND!!!!)
> lightning. The cold upper air interacted with the warm NE'ly flow and
> BANG!!!!!!!! BIG BIG BIG BANG!!!!! Cells were visually VERY VERY strong
with
> powerful updrafts and very good inflow/outflow organisation. Visually they
> looked severe. I watched as the first "warned" cell tracked down across
the
> N and NE suburbs of Melbourne from a lookout near Wandong getting about 30
> mins of video as the cell cruised about 10km to my S (maybe a tad less). I
> then gave chase down to Kalkallo where I realised there was more coming
down
> from the NW so I stopped and watched that stuff head for me. I then headed
> for South MOrang where I knew there was a good lookout near the top of a
> hill (thinking FLANGS for the video of course). I didn't make it to the
> lookout before the car was enveloped in hail fog and the road was almost
> totally covered (but for the car tyre tracks). I pulled over (well - kinda
> slid) off the road and jumped out to find a dense cover (drifts of 2
inches)
> hail up to about 1.2cm. WHOA!!!!!! I WAS IN HAIL HEAVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!! After
> some video of that (with the ominous reminder, in the form of thunder,
from
> the approaching next storm) I headed to my original destination (the
lookout
> in South MOrang). Again I didn't make it that far as the hail on the road
> (and the leaf/other debris) got thicker and thicker until there was no
more
> road....hehe - fun to drive on. I pulled over again and the hail was now
in
> drifts of 3-4inches deep with fast rivers of hail/water/ice running down
the
> sides of the road (all this from the first cell to pass over the NE
burbs).
> The stones were a little larger too (1.5cm) so given the increase I gave
the
> BoM a quick call and reported the hail. Anyway - upon finally reaching my
> destination (the lookout) the storm to my NW was only about 5km away and
> booming constantly with thunder. There was still hail everywhere at the
> lookout so I grabbed the torch and went in search of larger hail - and
found
> it quite easily. Hail up to 2.5-3cm. I was now VERY VERY happy. Anyway -
the
> cell to the NW was spitting out some f'unbelievable CG's so I jumped in
the
> car and started videoing to the NW. I got about 10 (guessing) relatively
> close CG's before I decided to climb back into the front seat and start
> shooting towards the top of the hill (about 80-100m away). A few close
CG's
> hit off to the SE and also over just behind the hill (all within about
500m)
> and then it happened. FLAASSSSSHHHHHHH (picture seeing 3 forked lightning
> very very very close right in front of you)
>
CCCRRRRRRRAACCCCCCCCCCKKKKKBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
> MM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well....I totally lost it....hehehe. The
> MMMAAAACCCCCCCCCCAAAAAAAAAa cry went out and it was just all over the shop
> (for those of you who don't knwo its just a figure of speech when one gets
> rather excited). I recovered from that incident (my heart rate went back
> down from about 20,000bpm) and decided to drive over the hill to watch the
> storm as it tore off to the SE. Over the hill I go and hello boys....the
> police are there. The road to Whittlesea was closed due to trees down.
(note
> there was still copious amounts of hail here too - up to 2cm - not bad for
> 30mins after the storm). I parked the car, armed myself with the video
> camera and marched on down to the roadblock and introduced myself as being
a
> member of ASWA to which I was greeted with great enthusiasm. The two cops
> were very friendly and were happy for me to stroll around taking footage
of
> the 2.5ft diametre tree which had just causually been snapped off by the
> wind and layed nicely across half of the road. THe SES was about 80m
further
> down the road removing another WHOLE tree off the road. After about 15
mins
> they came down to the other tree and one of the cops and I and the two SES
> guys set to work on this beast. I asked them if they had heard of any
other
> damage and they said there were buildings damaged in Whittlesea. After a
> while when most of the work was done I headed off to get some more footage
> (hoping to catch the line of storms again...hehehe). I got up to the
lookout
> at Kangaroo Ground and realised things were disappearing off into the
abyss
> of the E ranges and imediately decided enough was enough. At 3:30am it was
> time to head home. So I turned around and left the storm to flash away at
> about 1-2 flashes per second and came home. And here I am - far far far
too
> excited to sleep so I think I'll go and watch the footage from
> tonight....hehe.
>
> Hope the rest of you had a gawk at this stuff tonight as it was the best
> show we've had here in Melbourne since Feb 1st. I'm not sure if others
would
> think so but I'd rate this as better than Feb (partly because I drove
990km
> to see it and the day was somewhat marginal until dinner time (the
waitress
> at the pub in Narranderra was not too bad....hehe)).
>
> On that note, I bid thee all farewell.
>
> Cheerio,
>
> Macca-wx
>
> _________________________________________________
>
> It sure was an awesome night and I have since reviewed the video footage
and
> will endeavor to do some captures today.  Interesting to see the wording
of
> the first warning from the BoM - they based it on radar alone.  It makes
me
> wonder what it looked like on radar (supercell?  or just severe?) as the
> shear on last nights sounding was not uncondusive for supercells with
30knts
> from the NE up to about 890mb swinging around to 30knts from the NW at
> 700mb.  Any BoM guys care to comment?
>
> Hope all the NSW and QLD people have a good day today.
>
> Macca
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of christian
> monahan
> Sent: Sunday, 13 October 2002 3:33 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
>
>
> hi again,
> have to share this. chased storm up into
> Plenty,probably the best visual display i've ever
> seen. there was literally 2 flashes a second, lots of
> multiple CGs,no rain.it kept moving N/E without
> dissipating in the slightest taking up the entire
> skyline. that was cool.anyone else watch it?
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do you Yahoo!?
> Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
> http://faith.yahoo.com
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X-Originating-IP: [210.50.252.206]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: melbourne lightning
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 12:16:06 +1000
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Hi all last night i saw some of the best bolts i have seen in a while! I have never seen Doncaster shoppingtown so empty! Not a soul. Photo's are on there way. The closest bolt i saw was just over a km, very bright very loud!!<BR></P>
<DIV><A href="http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning">http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning</A></DIV>
<P>Ben<BR><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: <a href='http://g.msn.com/1HM1ENAU/c152??PI=44314'>Click Here</a><br></html>
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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: "Aussie-Wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra STA
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 13:29:01 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>BoM have issued an STA for the ACT, 
<A 
href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt">http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt</A>&nbsp;Right 
now i can here thnder every couple of seconds, but its all imbeded in a layer of 
mid level crap!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Have to work in 1.5hrs, so hopefully 
it will hit before then!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra STA
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 13:47:49 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOO, Just had 12 
minutes of 1.5cm hail, with some stomes upto 2cm!!!!, webcam was updating at the 
time so i will see if i got any worthwile shots from it, otherwise i have to 
wait for my dad to bring around the stuff for the Digi.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Woooohooooooooo (biggest hail i have 
seen)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition File.<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com">Simon 
  Angell</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 13, 2002 1:29 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Canberra STA</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>BoM have issued an STA for the ACT, 
  <A 
  href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt">http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt</A>&nbsp;Right 
  now i can here thnder every couple of seconds, but its all imbeded in a layer 
  of mid level crap!!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Have to work in 1.5hrs, so 
  hopefully it will hit before then!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
  size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
  Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
  href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
  of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
  Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition 
  File.<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold Pool vorticity.
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 14:05:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all. Hope you are all enjoying your weather 
weekend.....Not a bad looking cold pool just south of Mt Gambier, this system 
has a maximum vorticity around 500hpa at around 40 south west of Tasmania and 
due south of Mt Gamb: and appears to be moving slowly east might kick off some 
ok cold air CB's across southern Vic and through Tasmania this 
afternoon....regards Clyve H.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Pool vorticity.
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 14:27:07 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Uploaded the pics <A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/">www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Enjoy!<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition File.<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 13, 2002 2:05 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Cold Pool 
  vorticity.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all. Hope you are all enjoying your weather 
  weekend.....Not a bad looking cold pool just south of Mt Gambier, this system 
  has a maximum vorticity around 500hpa at around 40 south west of Tasmania and 
  due south of Mt Gamb: and appears to be moving slowly east might kick off some 
  ok cold air CB's across southern Vic and through Tasmania this 
  afternoon....regards Clyve H.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW - Niangala Tornado - Oct 13
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 14:34:24 +1000
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Wow Matt!

This certainly sounds like a significant event.
I can't wait for the pics, report, analysis, caps etc etc
Maybe a full rundown at the November ASWA meeting?
Well done!

dann
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matthew Smith" <tornado at cnn.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 19, 2002 10:20 PM
Subject: aus-wx: NSW - Niangala Tornado - Oct 13


>
> I had the weekend off, and decided to take the long drive up to
> Niangala, an hour and a half drive or so north of Gloucester on the
> barrington tops, to inspect damage reported by a Tamworth newspaper
> about a tornado that hit last sunday, the day a bunch of us were chasing
> in the Hunter valley.
>
> Several houses damaged. At one farm, the house had the roof off, double
> brick walls were down and glass shards from windows were embedded
> throughout the house in the walls. I met up with the farmer after
> walking around the area for a few minutes by myself,  he drove me around
> his property so we could cover more ground and get photos, lovely man,
> Neil Stackman, and he is extremely lucky he and his family did not have
> worse injuries (the worst being a deep cut that required 45 stitches to
> his daughter) His account of being in the house whilst it roared
> overhead (he said it sounded like an F1-11 jet), was amazing, yet seeing
> his house in ruins i felt very sad, but happy they walked away.
>
> The tornado track seems to be over 15km long. Most of it travelled
> through farmland/fields, with plenty of tree's down along the path, but
> the last 3-4km of the track.... WOW what a site.... the tornado entered
> a state forest..., I found a dirt road that went into it and hoped it
> would intercept the tornado track... and it did. The damage width was
> the same as back at the house, about 200m wide, but with the dense
> vegitation, it gave a better idea of the exact width and damage path..
> it was like a 200m wide lawnmower had gone through the bush,  with
> massive gum tree's uprooted, tree's broken in half, tree's twisted off
> 1/2 way up, branches down everywhere. The track was visible to the naked
> eye so easily... absolutly mindblowing to see it and to think 6 days ago
> it roared through the area.
> My initial thoughts are that it reached F3 intensity at its most intense
> phase, a very significant tornadic event. No photographs as it occured
> just in the last glimmers of light after the sun set, but 1 witness saw
> it and described a large black wirly cloud on the ground.
> I took a roll of photos and some video of the damage, and will get them
> scanned and send some to Rob Webb.
>
> Amazing site, but a long drive there and back to Newcastle in the high
> 30 temps.. yuck.
>
> Matthew Smith
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
>
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X-Originating-IP: [210.50.86.83]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: big bolt photos
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 17:11:46 +1000
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Hi all i have uploaded some snaps from last night, i didnt know which ones because there are so many but here are just a few...Comments welcome!</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>New album light night...</DIV>
<DIV><A href="http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning">http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>P.S. I have got my dates mixed up!</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Ben</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV></DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. <a href='http://g.msn.com/1HM1ENAU/c157??PI=44314'>Click Here</a><br></html>
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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vic storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 19:26:39 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A very active storm through here last night between 
3.30 am and 4 am apparently,&nbsp;but I slept through it. Bugger.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>No rain at all though :-(</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dewpoint
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 19:29:43 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just had a look for here and the Dewpoint has been 
below zero since Midday today and is currently still on minus 1.3C</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 19:33:00 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold Pool vorticity.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Some really nice looking 'coldies' down here this 
afternoon. Some heavy showers with a little hail mixed 
in on occasions. I've received 6.5mm this afternoon to 
add to the 5.5mm from last night's storms - ends up 
being a pretty good weekend weather-wise.

Tim Eckert


---- Original message ----
>Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 14:05:50 +1000
>From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>  
>Subject: aus-wx: Cold Pool vorticity.  
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>
>Hi all. Hope you are all enjoying your weather 
weekend.....Not a bad looking cold pool just south of 
Mt Gambier, this system has a maximum vorticity 
around 500hpa at around 40 south west of Tasmania 
and due south of Mt Gamb: and appears to be 
moving slowly east might kick off some ok cold air 
CB's across southern Vic and through Tasmania this 
afternoon....regards Clyve H.
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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry Fronts
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 20:50:48 +1000
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<DIV><FONT size=2>As bizarre as it sounds here on the East Coast of NSW ( 34S ) 
we actually get some cold fronts that clear the skies and even raise the 
temperature the following day.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>What happens is the front brings a west wind change that 
replaces the cool seabreeze. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=dajapo at voltage.net href="mailto:dajapo at voltage.net">arky dave</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 13, 2002 10:41 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Dry Fronts</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello to all my fellow weather 
  watchers:</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; To date this 
  year in Mena, we've had 13 cold fronts (Canadian &amp; Pacific) come through 
  which were TOTALLY dry., a few others brought very little rain. (A few clouds 
  and a wind shift--to Northerly--would mark their passage).</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I 
  was wondering if Australia has many dry frontal passages?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>P.S. I also got an e-mail from Shelly (<A 
  href="mailto:shellypy at hotmail.com)--from">shellypy at hotmail.com)--from</A> 
  Sydney--asking about raindays for this year. I replied to the e-mail, got a 
  reply back, ran a virus test on my computer which said I was 
  virus-free.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
  size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
  Wishing everyone much Love and an awesome week&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
  Powell</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [210.50.218.37]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 21:00:32 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Oct 2002 11:00:32.0966 (UTC) FILETIME=[C035EE60:01C272A7]
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>I saw it! and my photo's are here...</P>
<P><A href="http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning">http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning</A><BR><BR>Ben<BR><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: christian monahan <DANOE1972 at YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sat, 12 Oct 2002 10:32:53 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;hi again, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;have to share this. chased storm up into 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Plenty,probably the best visual display i've ever 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;seen. there was literally 2 flashes a second, lots of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;multiple CGs,no rain.it kept moving N/E without 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;dissipating in the slightest taking up the entire 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;skyline. that was cool.anyone else watch it? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;__________________________________________________ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Do you Yahoo!? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos &amp; More 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://faith.yahoo.com 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. <a href='http://g.msn.com/1HM1ENAU/c157??PI=44314'>Click Here</a><br></html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-html>
From: "Michael Andrews" <mixmail at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 21:19:04 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627
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<META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
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<BODY>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Hi 
all,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>This 
is my first post here.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Ben, 
great photos. Did you take them from Doncaster Shoppingtown? Where do you shoot 
from? The top of the carpark or somewhere?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I woke 
to the storm but unfortunately all my slide film was in the fridge. There was 
plenty of lightning activity outside my place in Mt Evelyn but it all seemed to 
be crawlers above the cloud, couldnt really see it. Obviously I was wrong - 
damn. (Not much view here, too many trees).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Oh 
well looks like I missed the first good storm of the season, let's hope it's a 
sign of things to come. I desperately need to add more images to my gallery 
which I started back in February this year......:) (only have two images so 
far..)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>That's 
it from me for now, this seems to be a great group!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Cheers,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Michael Andrews</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Mt 
Evelyn, VIC</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><A 
href="http://www.michaelsphotography.net">www.michaelsphotography.net</A></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=859231211-13102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left><FONT 
  face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Ben 
  Jerrems<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, 13 October 2002 9:01 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Victorian 
  storms<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P>I saw it! and my photo's are here...</P>
  <P><A 
  href="http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning">http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning</A><BR><BR>Ben<BR><FONT 
  face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION 
  Photographics.</FONT></P></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [210.50.37.42]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 22:11:25 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Oct 2002 12:11:25.0614 (UTC) FILETIME=[A6FC84E0:01C272B1]
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>Yes mate they were taken from westfield, i like the view but too many lights.<BR><BR><BR>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Michael Andrews" <MIXMAIL at BIGPOND.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victorian storms 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 21:19:04 +1000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Hi all, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;This is my first post here. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Ben, great photos. Did you take them from Doncaster Shoppingtown? Where 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;do you shoot from? The top of the carpark or somewhere? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I woke to the storm but unfortunately all my slide film was in the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;fridge. There was plenty of lightning activity outside my place in Mt 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Evelyn but it all seemed to be crawlers above the cloud, couldnt really 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;see it. Obviously I was wrong - damn. (Not much view here, too many 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;trees). 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Oh well looks like I missed the first good storm of the season, let's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;hope it's a sign of things to come. I desperately need to add more 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;images to my gallery which I started back in February this year......:) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;(only have two images so far..) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;That's it from me for now, this seems to be a great group! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Cheers, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Michael Andrews 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Mt Evelyn, VIC 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;www.michaelsphotography.net 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;-----Original Message----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ben Jerrems 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sent: Sunday, 13 October 2002 9:01 PM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I saw it! and my photo's are here... 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://groups.msn.com/melbournelightning 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Ben 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;BEANZVISION Photographics. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: <a href='http://g.msn.com/1HM1ENAU/c144??PS=47575'>Click Here</a><br></html>
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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
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Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 23:16:05 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 12:10 AM 13/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Hi all.
>We had a fierce electrical storm rip through Hamilton
>at about 10.30pm tonight.  Not much rain in it but the
>lightning was sensational!!!! Cgs every second or so
>and went straight over the top of my house. Had two

Storm went through Niddrie at around 1AM.  Was a rather weak cell, only 
infrequent CCs and moderate rain.  More intense storms were reported in the 
eastern suburbs (I seem to have a knack of finding closet chasers out there 
- must direct a few towards ASWA :) ).

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic storms
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 00:34:43 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Oct 2002 14:34:44.0334 (UTC) FILETIME=[AC3910E0:01C272C5]
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<x-flowed>
Some awesome storms here in Donvale last night too!

(I just knew this system would produce some great night storms!)

I got woken up around 1 am with some rain and some thunder and lighting.  
The cell then seemed to move off to the east, but was soon followed by a 
HUUUGGEEEEE cell that produced massive amounts of rain, some hail 1 - 2cm, 
and strobe-like lightning.

2-3 flashes a second at the most intense period!!!  With flangs aplenty!


Anvil crawlers lit up everywhere, with only a few CG's.  Most of the 
lightning started high up above the cloud cover, but then seemed to begin 
arcing through to the underside where it was visible when the storm seemed 
to intensify.

The storm lasted around 30-40 mins before passing off into the night.

Fell asleep listening to the thunder in the distance, and the rain on the 
roof.

Still recovering from a gig with the band the night before.



GO SPRING AND GO VIC!!!!!!!!!!!


Liam



>From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Vic storms
>Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 19:26:39 +1000
>
>A very active storm through here last night between 3.30 am and 4 am 
>apparently, but I slept through it. Bugger.
>No rain at all though :-(
>Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)




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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Cold air CB photos from Sunday
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 01:41:32 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Oct 2002 15:41:32.0578 (UTC) FILETIME=[01529020:01C272CF]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi all

After recovering from last nights brilliant storms, I went to look at a car 
in Sunbury.

The clouds looked nice, with some big cold air CB's building to the west, 
and some dark based showers passing over the airport, with big white virga 
streaming down from them (hail shafts no doubt)

While looking at the car, my mate and I were pummeled by winds approx 
80-90km/h, freeeeeeezing cold of course, rain and some small hail.

On the way home, driving down the Calder, I remembered I had the digital 
camera in the back and snapped a few shots of the massive coldie that had 
just passed over us, and heading eastwards.

The cell had a nice updraught at the rear.

Here's the pics!

http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/liam-domanski/storm_photos/13-10-02/

Enjoy!


Liam


_________________________________________________________________
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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra STA
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 02:29:46 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi all, Fantastic storm(s) here this 
afternoon, I will get my account up after work 2morrow, but for now all the pics 
are <A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/">www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/</A> 
&lt;--there, and 1 pic from the webcam during the action here --&gt; <A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/webcam.jpg">www.canberra-wx.com/pics/13oct02/webcam.jpg</A> 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition File.<BR></DIV>
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com">Simon 
  Angell</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 13, 2002 1:47 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Canberra STA</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOO, Just had 12 
  minutes of 1.5cm hail, with some stomes upto 2cm!!!!, webcam was updating at 
  the time so i will see if i got any worthwile shots from it, otherwise i have 
  to wait for my dad to bring around the stuff for the Digi.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Woooohooooooooo (biggest hail i 
  have seen)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
  Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
  href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
  of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
  href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
  Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition File.<BR></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com">Simon 
    Angell</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Wx</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 13, 2002 1:29 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Canberra STA</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>BoM have issued an STA for the 
    ACT, <A 
    href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt">http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt</A>&nbsp;Right 
    now i can here thnder every couple of seconds, but its all imbeded in a 
    layer of mid level crap!!!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>Have to work in 1.5hrs, so 
    hopefully it will hit before then!</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
    size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
    Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
    href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
    of:<BR>Australian Severe Weather Association.<BR><A 
    href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">www.severeweather.asn.au</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
    email is virus free.<BR>Scanned before leaving my mailbox<BR>using Norton 
    Antivirus 2002 for Win2k<BR>Scanned with the latest definition 
    File.<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Mailer: MIME-tools 5.411 (Entity 5.404)
From: Rhett Blanch <rhettaj at optusnet.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 08:20:13 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter storms - 13 Oct
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,
A successful chase yesterday saw storms in the Singleton - Cessnock - Maitland 
area NSW.  I ran into 1cm hail North of Cessnock with some stone considerably 
larger.  There were also some interesting lowerings and heaps of lightning.  Photos 
below:

http://www.wilgatree.com/reporting/20021013_hunter.htm

More detailed report to follow - if anyone has radar of that area from yesterday can 
you let me know off list.

Also some photos from last weekend (5th October) at Scone, NSW of a nice 
sunlit anvil at sunset:
http://www.wilgatree.com/reporting/20021005_scone.htm



Rhett Blanch


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From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter storms - 13 Oct
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 09:33:29 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


yep, got 512k willi at 48min past the hour and 128k at 50min past the hour.
Both animated.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Rhett Blanch" <rhettaj at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 14, 2002 8:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Hunter storms - 13 Oct


> Hi all,
> A successful chase yesterday saw storms in the Singleton - Cessnock -
Maitland
> area NSW.  I ran into 1cm hail North of Cessnock with some stone
considerably
> larger.  There were also some interesting lowerings and heaps of
lightning.  Photos
> below:
>
> http://www.wilgatree.com/reporting/20021013_hunter.htm
>
> More detailed report to follow - if anyone has radar of that area from
yesterday can
> you let me know off list.
>
> Also some photos from last weekend (5th October) at Scone, NSW of a nice
> sunlit anvil at sunset:
> http://www.wilgatree.com/reporting/20021005_scone.htm
>
>
>
> Rhett Blanch
>
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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X-Originating-IP: [203.40.161.253]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold air CB photos from Sunday
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 02:59:39 +0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Oct 2002 02:59:40.0122 (UTC) FILETIME=[BCFD13A0:01C2732D]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>

Yes a good weekend stormwise! Yes nice cold Cells sunday, actually some 
where a little bit electrically active!

>From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Cold air CB photos from Sunday
>Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 01:41:32 +1000
>
>Hi all
>
>After recovering from last nights brilliant storms, I went to look at a car 
>in Sunbury.
>
>The clouds looked nice, with some big cold air CB's building to the west, 
>and some dark based showers passing over the airport, with big white virga 
>streaming down from them (hail shafts no doubt)
>
>While looking at the car, my mate and I were pummeled by winds approx 
>80-90km/h, freeeeeeezing cold of course, rain and some small hail.
>
>On the way home, driving down the Calder, I remembered I had the digital 
>camera in the back and snapped a few shots of the massive coldie that had 
>just passed over us, and heading eastwards.
>
>The cell had a nice updraught at the rear.
>
>Here's the pics!
>
>http://www.users.bigpond.net.au/liam-domanski/storm_photos/13-10-02/
>
>Enjoy!
>
>
>Liam
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________
>Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tasmanian 'wrap around'+ Yarrawonga radar.
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 18:05:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Oct 2002 08:07:31.0889 (UTC) FILETIME=[BF050A10:01C27358]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, An interesting cirrus wrap around moving 
around the cold pool low over Tasmania and coming ashore near Wilson's Prom, 
also some interesting returns from radar north of Yarrawonga, what's going on up 
there Bussie some red showing up,. regards Clyve h.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tasmanian 'wrap around'+ Yarrawonga radar.
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 18:28:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some heavy showers about but they are very quick to 
pass over. The heaviest one I saw was when I was coming home between Chiltern 
and Rutherglen on my bus and the windscreen wiper decided to fall to bits. How 
convenient!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There has been some very dark clouds about though 
no doubt. The darkest one has just passed to the north travelling from the SW I 
think and is now in southern NSW. I have had a massive point 8 mm here but it 
all helps. Because the showers were quite heavy (but short) everything looks 
nice and green after the dust has been washed off.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Currently on 4mm for October :-((</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 14, 2002 6:05 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Tasmanian 'wrap around'+ 
  Yarrawonga radar.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, An interesting cirrus wrap around moving 
  around the cold pool low over Tasmania and coming ashore near Wilson's Prom, 
  also some interesting returns from radar north of Yarrawonga, what's going on 
  up there Bussie some red showing up,. regards Clyve 
h.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Chase 12th & 13th October - Vic & NSW
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 21:08:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

I chased the trough from Victoria's central highlands on Saturday
evening up to Bundanoon on the NSW Southern Tablelands on Sunday
afternoon...then I thought I'd better come back to Melbourne so I could
be at work by 7.30 this morning.  Brilliant lightning - I still have to
do captures from the video, but there should be some good ones of
Melbourne from the hill behind Sunbury and I then followed them (well,
actually was in it) all the way up the Hume Highway to just north of
Euroa, where I gave up driving and just 'experienced' a ripper of a
storm.  An hour later, another storm passed over with just a smattering
of small hail.

Sunday morning was coffee and toast in a cafe in Albury with a power
point for the laptop ... you get strange looks from people when you go
in and ask if they have a table with a power point <g>.  Resumed my
trail north, passing through the front and into warmer, moister air &
headed up towards Gunning, listening with some curiosity to the
lightning the AM radio was capturing.  If you know my radio, you also
know that your sanity can be sorely tested during a stormchase because
of the 'WHINE" - but when you have a close storm, you start to hear
'gaps in the whine'....and I was starting to hear gaps....the storm was
actually on an intercept course with me!!  Very lighting active, but
embedded in a lot of junky Cu - so I had no idea which one it was, so I
took pictures of everything!!

Headed north once more and came upon clearer air near Goulburn - and
some serious convection!!  Nice cells on the ranges near Goulburn and
also over the Morton National Park.  Did a quick circuit through Exeter
& Bundanoon, took a couple of shots of the cells wandering off the
Illawarra coast, looked at the clock....1445 & thought, maybe it was
time to head south again. Photos of the back end of the cell over
Canberra made that part of the drive rather fascinating - the dynamics
involved with those cells was rather curious ....check out this image
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1013jon11.jpg

Drove into a totally different airmass between Goulburn & Gunning &
changed my photo mode from 'convection' to 'clouds & sunsets'.....best
thing about digital cameras is that you can take photos at any
time........

All in all - an absolutely brilliant weekend, but I'm not sure that I
would quite recommend driving 1650kms in one day - you do end up just a
bit tired the next day.....needless to say, SCD (Storm Chaser Dog) loved
every minute of the trip, especially the McDonalds "one for you, one for
me, one for you, one for me" deal with the chips on the way back last
night!!

The first 12 images can be found here (I'll be putting a few more up
with the video stills later in the week)
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02jon.htm

Enjoy!!
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tasmanian 'wrap around'+ Yarrawonga radar.
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 21:46:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Checking the radar tonight, these rain bands (although narrow) 
are steadily expanding their way outwards from the low and edging towards 
Melbourne and the Otways!!&nbsp; Worth watching, could be some rather good falls 
if the 25.8mm at Wilson's Prom is anything to go by!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Melbourne Storm Chasers<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au">Clyve 
  Herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 14, 2002 6:05 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Tasmanian 'wrap around'+ 
  Yarrawonga radar.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, An interesting cirrus wrap around moving 
  around the cold pool low over Tasmania and coming ashore near Wilson's Prom, 
  also some interesting returns from radar north of Yarrawonga, what's going on 
  up there Bussie some red showing up,. regards Clyve 
h.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 21:47:51 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
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Hi all.
Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web site 
that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a street 
somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the road 
and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except that 
it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was and 
where??
How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
And no it doesn't look like a large hail storm.... :P
Thanks for your help.
Tim.
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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase 12th & 13th October - Vic & NSW
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 21:49:44 +1000
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Hi Jane

I ended up just south of Bundanoon myself, albeit 2 hours later. You made
the right move heading southwards when you did, the better cells were all
south ( or east over the ocean ).

The moisture levels were just far too low around the southern highlands.

Sorry we did not have Storm chaser convergence.

I thought earlier in the day that Jimmy was nearby - going just from this
scene

http://ozthunder.com/chase/131002c.jpg

Michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 14, 2002 9:08 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Chase 12th & 13th October - Vic & NSW


> Evening all,
>
> I chased the trough from Victoria's central highlands on Saturday
> evening up to Bundanoon on the NSW Southern Tablelands on Sunday
> afternoon...then I thought I'd better come back to Melbourne so I could
> be at work by 7.30 this morning.  Brilliant lightning - I still have to
> do captures from the video, but there should be some good ones of
> Melbourne from the hill behind Sunbury and I then followed them (well,
> actually was in it) all the way up the Hume Highway to just north of
> Euroa, where I gave up driving and just 'experienced' a ripper of a
> storm.  An hour later, another storm passed over with just a smattering
> of small hail.
>
> Sunday morning was coffee and toast in a cafe in Albury with a power
> point for the laptop ... you get strange looks from people when you go
> in and ask if they have a table with a power point <g>.  Resumed my
> trail north, passing through the front and into warmer, moister air &
> headed up towards Gunning, listening with some curiosity to the
> lightning the AM radio was capturing.  If you know my radio, you also
> know that your sanity can be sorely tested during a stormchase because
> of the 'WHINE" - but when you have a close storm, you start to hear
> 'gaps in the whine'....and I was starting to hear gaps....the storm was
> actually on an intercept course with me!!  Very lighting active, but
> embedded in a lot of junky Cu - so I had no idea which one it was, so I
> took pictures of everything!!
>
> Headed north once more and came upon clearer air near Goulburn - and
> some serious convection!!  Nice cells on the ranges near Goulburn and
> also over the Morton National Park.  Did a quick circuit through Exeter
> & Bundanoon, took a couple of shots of the cells wandering off the
> Illawarra coast, looked at the clock....1445 & thought, maybe it was
> time to head south again. Photos of the back end of the cell over
> Canberra made that part of the drive rather fascinating - the dynamics
> involved with those cells was rather curious ....check out this image
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/1013jon11.jpg
>
> Drove into a totally different airmass between Goulburn & Gunning &
> changed my photo mode from 'convection' to 'clouds & sunsets'.....best
> thing about digital cameras is that you can take photos at any
> time........
>
> All in all - an absolutely brilliant weekend, but I'm not sure that I
> would quite recommend driving 1650kms in one day - you do end up just a
> bit tired the next day.....needless to say, SCD (Storm Chaser Dog) loved
> every minute of the trip, especially the McDonalds "one for you, one for
> me, one for you, one for me" deal with the chips on the way back last
> night!!
>
> The first 12 images can be found here (I'll be putting a few more up
> with the video stills later in the week)
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02jon.htm
>
> Enjoy!!
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
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>
>

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Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:00:57 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
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Tim,
It never has.
Don W

Tim Eckert wrote:
> 
> Hi all.
> Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web site
> that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a street
> somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the road
> and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except that
> it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was and
> where??
> How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> And no it doesn't look like a large hail storm.... :P
> Thanks for your help.
> Tim.
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Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:09:53 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
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Tim...
for a more detailed reply, the lowest temp in Brisbane in 1983 was 6.5
on a clear June morning. The lowest max was > 15 !
On 8 July Toowoomba had a max of 7.0 - the lowest max ever but no snow
even there.
Myths should never be allowed to get in the way of facts. I don't know
the site you referred to  - you gave no cross reference, but it is
obviously a rubbishy one.
Don W
Tim Eckert wrote:
> 
> Hi all.
> Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web site
> that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a street
> somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the road
> and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except that
> it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was and
> where??
> How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> And no it doesn't look like a large hail storm.... :P
> Thanks for your help.
> Tim.
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 08:41:17 -0400 (EDT)
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From: "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra STA
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 15:31:10 +1000
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Simon, I was at the Fyshwick Markets about that time we had a brief 
thunderstorm with small hail for about 4 minutes with heavy rain and some 
loud thunderclaps but it was moving very fast.Yet at Gilmore it remained 
sunny with fresh northwesterly winds which peaked at 51 km/hr from the WNW 
at 1742hours. I suspect the plane that flipped at Bungendore a bit later 
might have encountered a strong gust with that squal amplified by down slope 
effects off the Ridge to the west(Lake George Range)It is quite windy again 
today


>From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra STA
>Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 13:47:49 +1000
>
>WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOO, Just had 12 minutes of 1.5cm hail, with some stomes 
>upto 2cm!!!!, webcam was updating at the time so i will see if i got any 
>worthwile shots from it, otherwise i have to wait for my dad to bring 
>around the stuff for the Digi.
>
>Woooohooooooooo (biggest hail i have seen)
>Cheers
>---------------------------------------------------------
>Simon Angell
>Canberra ACT
>www.canberra-wx.com
>---------------------------------------------------------
>Member of:
>Australian Severe Weather Association.
>www.severeweather.asn.au
>---------------------------------------------------------
>This email is virus free.
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>
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: Simon Angell
>   To: Aussie-Wx
>   Sent: Sunday, October 13, 2002 1:29 PM
>   Subject: aus-wx: Canberra STA
>
>
>   Hi all.
>   BoM have issued an STA for the ACT, 
>http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN26200.txt Right now i can here 
>thnder every couple of seconds, but its all imbeded in a layer of mid level 
>crap!!!
>
>   Have to work in 1.5hrs, so hopefully it will hit before then!
>
>   Cheers
>   ---------------------------------------------------------
>   Simon Angell
>   Canberra ACT
>   www.canberra-wx.com
>   ---------------------------------------------------------
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>   www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
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Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into about 2 years ago on
the net. It was on a photo library site and showed cars deep in hail and
people playing throwing hail balls at each other.

This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but the dead give away ( if
nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing that the people where
wearing.

Michael



> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web site
> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a street
> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the road
> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except that
> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was and
> > where??
> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail storm.... :P
> > Thanks for your help.


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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: "Aussie-Wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New Pics
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 01:48:34 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2>I have uploaded a few pics from Last 
month,&nbsp;<A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm">www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm</A> 
The new ones have "NEW" next to them, from 1st and 4th of September and then 
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#000000 
size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Simon 
Angell<BR>Canberra ACT<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">www.canberra-wx.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------<BR>Member 
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</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chase 12th & 13th October - Vic & NSW
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 06:54:59 +1000
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Can't help myself. Hey Clyve! There's those cows again :-)
With closer inspection the last cow is wearing stockings I think.
Sorry, just a "Victorian" joke.
Great photo none the less.
 
> I ended up just south of Bundanoon myself, albeit 2 hours later. You made
> the right move heading southwards when you did, the better cells were all
> south ( or east over the ocean ).
> 
> The moisture levels were just far too low around the southern highlands.
> 
> Sorry we did not have Storm chaser convergence.
> 
> I thought earlier in the day that Jimmy was nearby - going just from this
> scene
> 
> http://ozthunder.com/chase/131002c.jpg
> 
> Michael



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Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 07:56:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase 13/10/02
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<x-flowed>
Hi guys,

David and I chased from the initiation area near and north of Mudgee. We 
remained with the storms until through to Jerrys Plains. Nice wall cloud 
which it looks like the other guys Matt James, Phil and Erin got as well. 
This particular wall cloud persisted for quite a long time. I wonder what 
would have happened had there been a NE wind.... The backsheared anvil was 
quite nice though the storms did not seem to me to be very deep. Some to 
the north had interesting overshoots but I think this was typical of the day.

Report and photos later.


-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Moisture build up southeast Aus
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 11:32:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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<x-html>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all, Seems to be some interesting moisture build 
up over the southeast of Australia over the past 24 hours hopefully the 
approaching trough might be able to kick off some badly needed rain, my only 
concern is the lack of upper relatively cold air at the moment. regards Clyve 
H.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 14:27:27 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
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Thanks Don, Michael, and Sam for your responses.
I did have my doubts about it being in Brisbane. Not 
knowing the city very well, I wasn't sure if there were 
any higher areas that could have recieved snow before.
Anyway, on looking at the image again (it was quite 
small) it could be a large amount of half melted hail.
I did not give the link to the site here because the 
Austarnet website changes the photo on every log-in.
However I have uploaded the image here:
http://snow.prohosting.com/teckert/Photos/brisbanesn
ow1983.jpg


---- Original message ----
>Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
>From: "Michael Thompson" 
<thunder at ozthunder.com>  
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??  
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>
>Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into 
about 2 years ago on
>the net. It was on a photo library site and showed 
cars deep in hail and
>people playing throwing hail balls at each other.
>
>This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but 
the dead give away ( if
>nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing 
that the people where
>wearing.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web 
site
>> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a 
street
>> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the 
road
>> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except 
that
>> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was 
and
>> > where??
>> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
>> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail 
storm.... :P
>> > Thanks for your help.
>
>
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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 14:46:11 +1000
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Not that there's any doubt now, but you can tell that that's hail by the
way it's lying on the roof. Snow doesn't descend on the 'corners' so
much...

Thanks for posting the image, Tim.

Andrew.


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Tim Eckert
Sent: Tuesday, 15 October 2002 2:27 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??


Thanks Don, Michael, and Sam for your responses.
I did have my doubts about it being in Brisbane. Not 
knowing the city very well, I wasn't sure if there were 
any higher areas that could have recieved snow before.
Anyway, on looking at the image again (it was quite 
small) it could be a large amount of half melted hail.
I did not give the link to the site here because the 
Austarnet website changes the photo on every log-in.
However I have uploaded the image here:
http://snow.prohosting.com/teckert/Photos/brisbanesn
ow1983.jpg


---- Original message ----
>Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
>From: "Michael Thompson"
<thunder at ozthunder.com>  
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>
>Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into
about 2 years ago on
>the net. It was on a photo library site and showed
cars deep in hail and
>people playing throwing hail balls at each other.
>
>This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but
the dead give away ( if
>nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing
that the people where
>wearing.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web
site
>> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a
street
>> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the
road
>> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except
that
>> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was
and
>> > where??
>> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
>> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail
storm.... :P
>> > Thanks for your help.
>
>
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Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 17:38:22 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Tim,

Nice image!  I'm pretty sure that it's hail.  Snow has never been
recorded in Brisbane before...the highest area is Mt Cootha (which
really isn't a mountain at all with an elvation of about 220m I think).

AC

Tim Eckert wrote:
> 
> Thanks Don, Michael, and Sam for your responses.
> I did have my doubts about it being in Brisbane. Not
> knowing the city very well, I wasn't sure if there were
> any higher areas that could have recieved snow before.
> Anyway, on looking at the image again (it was quite
> small) it could be a large amount of half melted hail.
> I did not give the link to the site here because the
> Austarnet website changes the photo on every log-in.
> However I have uploaded the image here:
> http://snow.prohosting.com/teckert/Photos/brisbanesn
> ow1983.jpg
> 
> ---- Original message ----
> >Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> <thunder at ozthunder.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >
> >Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into
> about 2 years ago on
> >the net. It was on a photo library site and showed
> cars deep in hail and
> >people playing throwing hail balls at each other.
> >
> >This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but
> the dead give away ( if
> >nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing
> that the people where
> >wearing.
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web
> site
> >> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a
> street
> >> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the
> road
> >> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except
> that
> >> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was
> and
> >> > where??
> >> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> >> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail
> storm.... :P
> >> > Thanks for your help.
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
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> > message.
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> --------------
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X-Sender: s355334 at student.uq.edu.au
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Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 19:06:18 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Leslie Muir <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
My Dad has lived in Brisbane for a long while for pretty much is 60yr life, 
and he says hes never seen snow in Brisbane. He said hes seen hail so bad u 
cant see the grass, so that would be my guess as to what it was. But i 
doubt snow.

Les Muir


At 05:38 PM 15/10/2002, you wrote:
>Hi Tim,
>
>Nice image!  I'm pretty sure that it's hail.  Snow has never been
>recorded in Brisbane before...the highest area is Mt Cootha (which
>really isn't a mountain at all with an elvation of about 220m I think).
>
>AC
>
>Tim Eckert wrote:
> >
> > Thanks Don, Michael, and Sam for your responses.
> > I did have my doubts about it being in Brisbane. Not
> > knowing the city very well, I wasn't sure if there were
> > any higher areas that could have recieved snow before.
> > Anyway, on looking at the image again (it was quite
> > small) it could be a large amount of half melted hail.
> > I did not give the link to the site here because the
> > Austarnet website changes the photo on every log-in.
> > However I have uploaded the image here:
> > http://snow.prohosting.com/teckert/Photos/brisbanesn
> > ow1983.jpg
> >
> > ---- Original message ----
> > >Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
> > >From: "Michael Thompson"
> > <thunder at ozthunder.com>
> > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >
> > >Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into
> > about 2 years ago on
> > >the net. It was on a photo library site and showed
> > cars deep in hail and
> > >people playing throwing hail balls at each other.
> > >
> > >This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but
> > the dead give away ( if
> > >nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing
> > that the people where
> > >wearing.
> > >
> > >Michael
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web
> > site
> > >> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a
> > street
> > >> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the
> > road
> > >> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except
> > that
> > >> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was
> > and
> > >> > where??
> > >> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> > >> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail
> > storm.... :P
> > >> > Thanks for your help.
> > >
> > >
> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> > your_email_address" in the body of your
> > > message.
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
> > --------------
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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storm Chasers site
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 21:53:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


If you are trying to access the Melbourne Storm Chasers site for the
next day or two - please use this link....
http://61.95.13.165/ until the real one reappears!!!

We are currently shuffling and waiting for one link to catch up with the
crowd, hence the slightly odd home atm.

Thanks for your patience!!

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 22:13:20 +1000
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Hi Tim,

It's not exactly the same picture but very similar to the one I saw. It was
hail in that picture.

Regards
Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 15, 2002 2:27 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??


> Thanks Don, Michael, and Sam for your responses.
> I did have my doubts about it being in Brisbane. Not
> knowing the city very well, I wasn't sure if there were
> any higher areas that could have recieved snow before.
> Anyway, on looking at the image again (it was quite
> small) it could be a large amount of half melted hail.
> I did not give the link to the site here because the
> Austarnet website changes the photo on every log-in.
> However I have uploaded the image here:
> http://snow.prohosting.com/teckert/Photos/brisbanesn
> ow1983.jpg
>
>
> ---- Original message ----
> >Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 22:43:48 +1000
> >From: "Michael Thompson"
> <thunder at ozthunder.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >
> >Hi Tim, I wonder if this is the same picture I ran into
> about 2 years ago on
> >the net. It was on a photo library site and showed
> cars deep in hail and
> >people playing throwing hail balls at each other.
> >
> >This photo also said that it was Brisbane snow, but
> the dead give away ( if
> >nothing else could convince one ) was the clothing
> that the people where
> >wearing.
> >
> >Michael
> >
> >
> >
> >> > Just came across a photo on the Austarnet web
> site
> >> > that a customer had sent in. The photo was of a
> street
> >> > somewhere in Brisbane with snow covering the
> road
> >> > and the roof of the houses!! Had no date except
> that
> >> > it was 1983. Anyone know exactly when this was
> and
> >> > where??
> >> > How often has it snowed in Brisbane?
> >> > And no it doesn't look like a large hail
> storm.... :P
> >> > Thanks for your help.
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
> --------------
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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From: David Findlay <david at davsoft.com.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 22:28:03 +1000
User-Agent: KMail/1.4.3
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-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1

On Tue, 15 Oct 2002 05:38 pm, Anthony Cornelius wrote this piece of wisdom:
> Nice image!  I'm pretty sure that it's hail.  Snow has never been
> recorded in Brisbane before...the highest area is Mt Cootha (which
> really isn't a mountain at all with an elvation of about 220m I think).

There HAS been snow in Brisbane. A few years back channel nine made a man made 
ski slope at Mt Cootha. Okay, so it didn't fall from the sky, but it was snow 
:-)

David
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Version: GnuPG v1.0.7 (GNU/Linux)

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MxA7ktbINVd3kCSPcUPFVM8=
=IRV2
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane snow 1983??
Date: Tue, 15 Oct 2002 22:42:19 +1000
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As a long term Brisbanite, I can confirm that there certainly was no snow in
1983.

John.

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dry air observations / MSC site
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 16:18:05 +1000
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Afternoon all,

You thought you'd seen dry air....check these out from the South Australian
obs page:-

Location / Temp / Depoint / RH%
Giles     38.9     -20.7     2
Oodnadatta 41.9     -5.4     5
Moomba     36.6     -19.4     2

Jane

PS: MSC is back live again!!
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Dry air observations / MSC site
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 16:50:25 +1000
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And, rather amazingly, a -25 at Mt Isa, which is 1% and a mixing ratio of
just 0.4 grams of water vapour per kilogram of air (see the mixing ratio map
at http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts/MIXRAT99.GIF). Quite a few
reports of raised dust, blowing dust and dust storms in western NSW/Vic and
eastern SA on the 3pm map at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts/synop06F.gif as the trough moves
through western Vic. The only rain though is a few drops in Tassie. No
storms. Strongest wind gusts 103km/h at Eildon (discounting the unreliable
Mt Hotham AP AWS).

Laurier

> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Wednesday, 16 October, 2002 4:18 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Dry air observations / MSC site
>
>
> Afternoon all,
>
> You thought you'd seen dry air....check these out from the South
> Australian
> obs page:-
>
> Location / Temp / Depoint / RH%
> Giles     38.9     -20.7     2
> Oodnadatta 41.9     -5.4     5
> Moomba     36.6     -19.4     2
>
> Jane
>
> PS: MSC is back live again!!
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Highest wind gust
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 17:00:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just recorded my highest wind gust here since I've 
had my weather station. 3 years I think. Not high by other places standards but 
this far inland its windy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>74.1kmh with an average of 46.2 from the 
NE.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Half of NSW's topsoil is in the air here at present 
I think. DP only hovering around the zero mark as it has done for the last few 
hours and a humidity of only 20%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: Simon Angell <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 17:36:26 +1000
Organization: Canberra-Wx
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002
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Hi All.
Have uploaded some pics from today, pretty uneventful till this afternoon, but good none the less.
www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm you should see 16th October there.




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From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 21:29:59 +1000
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After 1 or 2 hitches, everything appears to be working fine with it now.
Also New pics from September have been uploaded, they are are marked withe
the "new" thingy, about half way down the page.
Cheers
---------------------------------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------------------
Member of:
Australian Severe Weather Association.
www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------------------------
This email is virus free.
Scanned before leaving my mailbox
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 16, 2002 5:36 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002


> Hi All.
> Have uploaded some pics from today, pretty uneventful till this afternoon,
but good none the less.
> www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm you should see 16th October there.
>
>
>
>
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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Repeat of last Sat, this Friday in Vic?
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2002 11:03:20 +1000
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<x-flowed>
Hi all

Looking nice for storms on friday, with temps forcast near the 30's.  Plenty 
of heating to get things going, although moisture is lacking a little.

Could it be a repeat of Saturday?   Hope so!

Looking at screwing work for the arvo and going chasing!!

Any thoughts?



Liam


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</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 20:24:26 -0700 (PDT)
From: christian monahan <danoe1972 at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repeat of last Sat, this Friday in Vic?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Any ideas about what areas are looking good for
activity tomorrow or Saturday?

__________________________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
Faith Hill - Exclusive Performances, Videos & More
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From: "Steve Baynham" <bayns at broad.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Highest wind gust/ Dust Storm
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2002 21:24:35 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>hey bussy!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>i reckon we would've equalled that here in Canberra 
aswell!! i was trying to sleep in the caravan... and it was movin man!!!! 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>sleepin&nbsp;in the caravan with the western window 
wide open last night was a big mistake. as you mentioned and apparently made it 
to national news, huge amounts of dust blanketted&nbsp; ACT last night as a 
result from the gale force winds!! it would not have been so bad, but becos we 
had showers and everything was wet, the dust stuck to everything.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>it was pretty cool!:) it was funny watching 
everyone wash their car today!! haha</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>we'll see what happens tonight</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>cyas</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Steve Baynham<BR>icq : 26863574</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Brisbane Storm Chasers<BR><A 
href="http://www.bsch.au.com">http://www.bsch.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Association<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Homepage<BR><A 
href="http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany">http://www.angelfire.com/ok/gany</A><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 16, 2002 5:00 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Highest wind gust</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just recorded my highest wind gust here since 
  I've had my weather station. 3 years I think. Not high by other places 
  standards but this far inland its windy.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>74.1kmh with an average of 46.2 from the 
  NE.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Half of NSW's topsoil is in the air here at 
  present I think. DP only hovering around the zero mark as it has done for the 
  last few hours and a humidity of only 20%.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2002 21:34:59 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Latest pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hello,

Feel free to check out the latest pictures which begin from the severe 
frost during the winter and end with the storms last Sunday

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd20021017.html

Finally a real storm last Sunday although most of the photographs are still 
in the camera.

Enjoy.

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2002 14:43:41 -0400 (EDT)
From: David Hart <dhart at theworld.com>
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From: "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Severe winds and dust in Canberra
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 23:29:16 +1000
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Hi all, We have just experienced a wind storm with dust and a little very 
light rain.Around 11pm winds averaged 73 km/hr with a peak gust of 79 km 
hour at 11 pm winds have now eased to around 15 km/hr .Visibility was down 
to 10 km with a strong smell of dust - someones farm is blowing away 
.Temperature is still around 19 degrees and Barometer is now rising after a 
very steep 3 hour fall to 1001 Hpa.Suspect a frontal trough crossed us but 
Temperature has not fallen yet. Canberra Airport had a gust to 79km/hr  
around 6pm so they may well have had stronger winds in the past hour.Our 
Aneometer is on a 10 metre mast . Any other reports welcome
Gavin
Southside Whr Canberra




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Date: Thu, 17 Oct 2002 14:43:51 -0400 (EDT)
From: David Hart <dhart at theworld.com>
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From: "Gavin O'Brien" <mrcenterprises at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002
Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 23:33:58 +1000
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Simon,
Hi, Did you experience the strong squals around 11pm we had 79 km/hr wind 
gusts and heaps of some one's farm blowing past. Wind has now dropped.
Gavin Southside Whr.






>From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002
>Date: Wed, 16 Oct 2002 21:29:59 +1000
>
>After 1 or 2 hitches, everything appears to be working fine with it now.
>Also New pics from September have been uploaded, they are are marked withe
>the "new" thingy, about half way down the page.
>Cheers
>---------------------------------------------------------
>Simon Angell
>Canberra ACT
>www.canberra-wx.com
>---------------------------------------------------------
>Member of:
>Australian Severe Weather Association.
>www.severeweather.asn.au
>---------------------------------------------------------
>This email is virus free.
>Scanned before leaving my mailbox
>using Norton Antivirus 2002 for Win2k
>Scanned with the latest definition File.
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Simon Angell" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Wednesday, October 16, 2002 5:36 PM
>Subject: aus-wx: Canberra, 16th Oct 2002
>
>
> > Hi All.
> > Have uploaded some pics from today, pretty uneventful till this 
>afternoon,
>but good none the less.
> > www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm you should see 16th October there.
> >
> >
> >
> >
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 20:17:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Evening all,

Reports coming in of very muddy rain in southern Victoria associated
with high based showers - the mud is an orange/red colour and requires
windscreen washers (not just wipers) to keep the screen clean!!

Lightning on the AM band also within 100kms of Melbourne.This afternoon,
a lot of small branches down with shredded leaves all over the road
around the Kew - Richmond area from the winds!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 07:11:20 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">just checked my old email Macca<BR>
great report of the 13/10 storm<BR>
whatched it from Nth bayswater and I thought the 2nd one which moved Nth of me was better than the 1st which more or less crossed over here <BR>
keep up the chase reports&nbsp;&nbsp; <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Dennis Cottle</FONT></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vic Winds.
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 21:40:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Oct 2002 11:42:32.0191 (UTC) FILETIME=[71D9E8F0:01C2769B]
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all. We had a mud bath shower here this evening 
at Leopold all local cars left out in the weather are covered in red dirt/mud. 
also a wind gust here at 1730 hrs from the west northwest of 107kph!, only 
damage is a few tree branches etc. regards Clyve 
Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
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Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 23:57:00 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 08:17 PM 18/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Evening all,
>
>Reports coming in of very muddy rain in southern Victoria associated
>with high based showers - the mud is an orange/red colour and requires
>windscreen washers (not just wipers) to keep the screen clean!!

Had that.  Was going to wash the car, but decided it wasn't worth the 
effort as more rain was coming...  Yukky stuff. :(

>Lightning on the AM band also within 100kms of Melbourne.This afternoon,
>a lot of small branches down with shredded leaves all over the road
>around the Kew - Richmond area from the winds!!

Strong gusts with the change at around 6-6:30PM in Niddrie.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 00:05:18 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aus-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Wx-Chase <WX-CHASE at listserv.uiuc.edu>
Subject: aus-wx: New Chase Reports: Golfball Hail Supercell; Small WC; Sunset Multicell 
 CB
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,

Well...after trying to fix my main capture card I decided to use a
different method of attack and buy a new HD for my old computer which
has an older capture card on it and get that working, which did the
trick!  So I took some captures today and put them with some reports...

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/07_09_02ac.html
Line of storms through Brisbane on the 9th of September, producing a
small wall cloud

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/09_10_02ac.html
Supercell on the Border Ranges moved NNE and gave golfball hail at
Jimboomba on the 9th of October.

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/thumbs/131002.jpg
1000km chase gave a nice sunset multicell with some small hail/lightning
later that evening from Moree-Glen Innes/Guyra!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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X-Originating-IP: [203.109.175.9]
From: "John Roenfeldt" <wa_tornado at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Innaloo/Osborne Park tornado track damage survey
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 23:31:26 +0800
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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Late this afternoon I did a survey of this event.

Report is up at:

http://www.inflowimages.com/TornadoesInWa/innaloo.htm

regards,

John Roenfeldt
http://www.inflowimages.com/
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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 07:43:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Sounds like what we got on Wednesday arvo. My house roof is blue but at the
minute it is orange/red as are most of the cars around here. Lots of red
dust and six point four spots of rain and what a mess.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 18, 2002 8:17 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.


> Evening all,
>
> Reports coming in of very muddy rain in southern Victoria associated
> with high based showers - the mud is an orange/red colour and requires
> windscreen washers (not just wipers) to keep the screen clean!!
>
> Lightning on the AM band also within 100kms of Melbourne.This afternoon,
> a lot of small branches down with shredded leaves all over the road
> around the Kew - Richmond area from the winds!!
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.6]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic Winds.
Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 21:51:48 +0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Oct 2002 21:51:48.0551 (UTC) FILETIME=[8F23C570:01C276F0]
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<x-flowed>
hi Clyve,all
Some rather gusty winds associated with the change also affected the SW 
Gippsland coast,100+km/h very likely. The prom had maximum gusts of 118km/h, 
and South Channel Island (in Port Phillip bay) a gust of 137km/h (74knts)!! 
at 19:09 friday.


kind regards TM
Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils





>From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Vic Winds.
>Date: Fri, 18 Oct 2002 21:40:22 +1000
>
>Hi all. We had a mud bath shower here this evening at Leopold all local 
>cars left out in the weather are covered in red dirt/mud. also a wind gust 
>here at 1730 hrs from the west northwest of 107kph!, only damage is a few 
>tree branches etc. regards Clyve Herbert.


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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Cc: <admin at broomecam.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Live camera ready for the Wet 
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 12:04:34 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Afternoon all,

Received this note from Roy in Broome - thought you might like to
bookmark the site now ready for the season!!

-------------------------------------------

Hi
Just to let you know we have recently connected a camera looking out to
the West over Cable Beach in Broome WA.

You/your members may be interested in this live camera when/if we have a
cyclone or even big storms during the upcoming Wet Season in Broome.

The link is www.BroomeCam.com

No extreme weather at the moment - another month before the 'Wet' really
starts to build up in Broome.

Regards
Roy Payne
admin at broomecam.com

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Spring photos
Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 16:28:41 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Afternoon all,

Have added a few more images to the Spring 2002 page - check the last
images added date for new images in all sections.
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/spring02.htm

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 22:20:40 +1000
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: NSW - Niangala Tornado - Oct 13
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



I had the weekend off, and decided to take the long drive up to
Niangala, an hour and a half drive or so north of Gloucester on the
barrington tops, to inspect damage reported by a Tamworth newspaper
about a tornado that hit last sunday, the day a bunch of us were chasing
in the Hunter valley.

Several houses damaged. At one farm, the house had the roof off, double
brick walls were down and glass shards from windows were embedded
throughout the house in the walls. I met up with the farmer after
walking around the area for a few minutes by myself,  he drove me around
his property so we could cover more ground and get photos, lovely man,
Neil Stackman, and he is extremely lucky he and his family did not have
worse injuries (the worst being a deep cut that required 45 stitches to
his daughter) His account of being in the house whilst it roared
overhead (he said it sounded like an F1-11 jet), was amazing, yet seeing
his house in ruins i felt very sad, but happy they walked away.

The tornado track seems to be over 15km long. Most of it travelled
through farmland/fields, with plenty of tree's down along the path, but
the last 3-4km of the track.... WOW what a site.... the tornado entered
a state forest..., I found a dirt road that went into it and hoped it
would intercept the tornado track... and it did. The damage width was
the same as back at the house, about 200m wide, but with the dense
vegitation, it gave a better idea of the exact width and damage path..
it was like a 200m wide lawnmower had gone through the bush,  with
massive gum tree's uprooted, tree's broken in half, tree's twisted off
1/2 way up, branches down everywhere. The track was visible to the naked
eye so easily... absolutly mindblowing to see it and to think 6 days ago
it roared through the area.
My initial thoughts are that it reached F3 intensity at its most intense
phase, a very significant tornadic event. No photographs as it occured
just in the last glimmers of light after the sun set, but 1 witness saw
it and described a large black wirly cloud on the ground.
I took a roll of photos and some video of the damage, and will get them
scanned and send some to Rob Webb.

Amazing site, but a long drive there and back to Newcastle in the high
30 temps.. yuck.

Matthew Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com

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From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: "Aussie-Wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New pics
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 01:14:04 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just uploaded some new files to the wallpaper 
section of my website.<BR>(click the wallpaper link at the top)<BR><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm">http://www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: "Aussie weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 07:55:31 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks we 
will in Kalumburu in Western Australia!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Climate change!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Check out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.kalumburu.com/">http://www.kalumburu.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sad to be leaving, excited about 
moving.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chas</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>for the last time</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu 
WA</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 06:28:11 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
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Wow! What a change of climate for you guys!  The closest I have ever been 
to Kalumburu is Kununurra. I thoroughly enjoyed the virtual tours on the 
web-site.  Looks like the kind of school I would like to teach at after 
overcrowded Hong Kong, though I think the rest of my family has become 
far too acclimatised to city living.
We will look forward to hearing your updates after you have arrived and 
settled in.  All the best for your big move.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Chas & Helen Osborn" <hosborn at tassie.net.au>
To: "Aussie weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 07:55:31 +1100
Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather

> Hello Everyone
> 
> Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks we will in Kalumburu in
> Western Australia!
> Climate change!!
> Check out.
> http://www.kalumburu.com/
> 
> Sad to be leaving, excited about moving.
> 
> Chas
> for the last time
> Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu WA
> 
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 09:37:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>"Big" climate change! Good luck.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=hosborn at tassie.net.au href="mailto:hosborn at tassie.net.au">Chas &amp; 
  Helen Osborn</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 20, 2002 6:55 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan 
  Weather</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks we 
  will in Kalumburu in Western Australia!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Climate change!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Check out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.kalumburu.com/">http://www.kalumburu.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sad to be leaving, excited about 
  moving.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chas</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>for the last time</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu 
  WA</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "elizebeth wilson" <beth511 at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 15:27:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Bussy,

Can you please explain the cause of this "muddy rain" to me? I have never
heard of it before.

Beth,
Tamworth NSW

----- Original Message -----
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:43 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.


> Sounds like what we got on Wednesday arvo. My house roof is blue but at
the
> minute it is orange/red as are most of the cars around here. Lots of red
> dust and six point four spots of rain and what a mess.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 18, 2002 8:17 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
>
>
> > Evening all,
> >
> > Reports coming in of very muddy rain in southern Victoria associated
> > with high based showers - the mud is an orange/red colour and requires
> > windscreen washers (not just wipers) to keep the screen clean!!
> >
> > Lightning on the AM band also within 100kms of Melbourne.This afternoon,
> > a lot of small branches down with shredded leaves all over the road
> > around the Kew - Richmond area from the winds!!
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 18:00:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Basically what has happened around here is that we have had ferocious winds
from the North and North west which brings a lot of red soil (dust) with it
from interior Australia. A little bit of rain and we have a mud bath that is
nice and red. Very light rain and these "dusts" and you get one hell of a
mess :-)

----- Original Message -----
From: "elizebeth wilson" <beth511 at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 20, 2002 3:27 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.


> Hi Bussy,
>
> Can you please explain the cause of this "muddy rain" to me? I have never
> heard of it before.
>
> Beth,
> Tamworth NSW
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:43 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
>
>
> > Sounds like what we got on Wednesday arvo. My house roof is blue but at
> the
> > minute it is orange/red as are most of the cars around here. Lots of red
> > dust and six point four spots of rain and what a mess.
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> > To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, October 18, 2002 8:17 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
> >
> >
> > > Evening all,
> > >
> > > Reports coming in of very muddy rain in southern Victoria associated
> > > with high based showers - the mud is an orange/red colour and requires
> > > windscreen washers (not just wipers) to keep the screen clean!!
> > >
> > > Lightning on the AM band also within 100kms of Melbourne.This
afternoon,
> > > a lot of small branches down with shredded leaves all over the road
> > > around the Kew - Richmond area from the winds!!
> > >
> > > Jane
> > >
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Klipsi" <klipsi at bluewin.ch>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Muddy rain in southern Victoria.
Date: Sun, 20 Oct 2002 10:04:40 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



>  explain the cause of this "muddy rain" to me? I have never
> heard of it before.


sand dust flown in from desert, gets mixed with rain. here in europe we
sometimes have great red rain, sand dust coming from african sahara all
across mediteranean sea. we had a great mud rain last march in geneva
switzerland. will try to find pictures and post. I work in a limousine
rental company here in geneva and all black mercedes sedans were pretty
dirty ;-) hehehe

Klipsi
http://eclipse.span.ch


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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New pics
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 06:20:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2716.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Simon,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>thanks for thinking about this for me.&nbsp; The image that 
I'm attaching was scanned so there are elements of grey in the background and 
when I try to make the white background transparent it doesn't work clearly and 
I don't know if there is an easy way to fix it other than pixel by 
pixel......</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>any ideas?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Many thanks,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - 
Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at stormchasers.au.com">cadence at stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=simon at canberra-wx.com href="http://www.canberra-wx.com">Simon Angell 
  - www.canberra-wx.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">Aussie-Wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 20, 2002 1:14 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: New pics</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just uploaded some new files to the wallpaper 
  section of my website.<BR>(click the wallpaper link at the top)<BR><A 
  href="http://www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm">http://www.canberra-wx.com/gallery.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Simon</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\logof.jpg"
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: New pics - please ignore, it's an image not a virus
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 07:54:41 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>&lt;sigh&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>Sorry, that previous email was meant for 
Simon - it's an image, it's not a virus. I didn't think that you could send an 
image via the list!!&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2>--------------------------------<BR>Jane 
ONeill - Melbourne<BR></FONT><A 
href="mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com"><FONT 
size=2>cadence at australianskynweather.com</FONT></A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2></FONT><FONT 
size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Australian Sky and Weather</FONT><FONT size=2><BR></FONT><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com"><FONT 
size=2>www.stormchasers.au.com</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>ASWA - Victoria<BR></FONT><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au"><FONT 
size=2>http://www.severeweather.asn.au</FONT></A><BR><FONT 
size=2>--------------------------------</FONT></DIV></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 10:27:55 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Oct 2002 00:30:04.0169 (UTC) FILETIME=[FFCB9790:01C27898]
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Chas &amp; Helen. I could not think of a much 
greater contrast in locations!. I will miss your reports from the 'deep south' 
of hail and gales, however, I and the list look forward to recieving your 
weather description from the ' deep north' of Australia.&nbsp;&nbsp; Kalumburu 
would have to be one of the most remote lacalities on this continant (ave 
rainfall is about 1190mm with a Jan ave of 309mm). Best of luck.. regards Clyve 
Herbert.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:hosborn at tassie.net.au" title=hosborn at tassie.net.au>Chas &amp; 
  Helen Osborn</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>Aussie weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 20, 2002 6:55 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan 
  Weather</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello Everyone</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks we 
  will in Kalumburu in Western Australia!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Climate change!!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Check out.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.kalumburu.com/">http://www.kalumburu.com/</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sad to be leaving, excited about 
  moving.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Chas</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>for the last time</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu 
  WA</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [203.31.48.3]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 13:37:53 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Oct 2002 03:37:54.0210 (UTC) FILETIME=[3D436020:01C278B3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
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<P>What a change!&nbsp; Look forward to the updates.&nbsp; There's a good book, written by a couple who spent a year living off the land, in that area, that you might like to get your hands on.&nbsp; It tracks the seasons, vagaries, heat and adversity wonderfully well.&nbsp; Now if I can only remember the name!<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "dann weatherhead" <WEATHERHEAD at OZEMAIL.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2002 11:12:04 +1000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Yes we look forward to hearing your updates from a 'different' part of Australia. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;dann 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;www.sydneystormchasers.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; ----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; From: Bussy 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Sent: Sunday, October 20, 2002 9:37 AM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Subject: Re: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; "Big" climate change! Good luck. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; ----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; From: Chas &amp; Helen Osborn 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; To: Aussie weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Sent: Sunday, October 20, 2002 6:55 AM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye Strahan Weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Hello Everyone 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Today we say goodbye to Strahan! In five weeks we will in Kalumburu in Western Australia! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Climate change!! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Check out. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; http://www.kalumburu.com/ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Sad to be leaving, excited about moving. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Chas 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; for the last time 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Strahan Tasmania soon to be Kalumburu WA 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Broadband? Dial-up? Get reliable MSN Internet Access. <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMSEN/2016">Click Here</a> </html>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.31.48.3]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW - Niangala Tornado - Oct 13
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 13:43:25 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Oct 2002 03:43:25.0965 (UTC) FILETIME=[03012BD0:01C278B4]
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Thanks for the report Matthew.&nbsp; I think these after the event examinations are just as interesting as accounts of events unfolding, especially for such a noteworthy event.&nbsp; It seems, reading the accounts of the day (Oct 13) from here and at Weatherzone&nbsp;that quite a few chasers were thereabouts (AC to the north, and a couple of guys in the upper Hunter) but the possible F3 just escaped the collective chasers' grasp.<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Matthew Smith <TORNADO at CNN.NET.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: NSW - Niangala Tornado - Oct 13 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sat, 19 Oct 2002 22:20:40 +1000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I had the weekend off, and decided to take the long drive up to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Niangala, an hour and a half drive or so north of Gloucester on the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;barrington tops, to inspect damage reported by a Tamworth newspaper 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;about a tornado that hit last sunday, the day a bunch of us were chasing 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;in the Hunter valley. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Several houses damaged. At one farm, the house had the roof off, double 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;brick walls were down and glass shards from windows were embedded 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;throughout the house in the walls. I met up with the farmer after 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;walking around the area for a few minutes by myself, he drove me around 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;his property so we could cover more ground and get photos, lovely man, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Neil Stackman, and he is extremely lucky he and his family did not have 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;worse injuries (the worst being a deep cut that required 45 stitches to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;his daughter) His account of being in the house whilst it roared 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;overhead (he said it sounded like an F1-11 jet), was amazing, yet seeing 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;his house in ruins i felt very sad, but happy they walked away. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;The tornado track seems to be over 15km long. Most of it travelled 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;through farmland/fields, with plenty of tree's down along the path, but 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the last 3-4km of the track.... WOW what a site.... the tornado entered 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;a state forest..., I found a dirt road that went into it and hoped it 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;would intercept the tornado track... and it did. The damage width was 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the same as back at the house, about 200m wide, but with the dense 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;vegitation, it gave a better idea of the exact width and damage path.. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;it was like a 200m wide lawnmower had gone through the bush, with 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;massive gum tree's uprooted, tree's broken in half, tree's twisted off 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;1/2 way up, branches down everywhere. The track was visible to the naked 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;eye so easily... absolutly mindblowing to see it and to think 6 days ago 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;it roared through the area. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;My initial thoughts are that it reached F3 intensity at its most intense 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;phase, a very significant tornadic event. No photographs as it occured 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;just in the last glimmers of light after the sun set, but 1 witness saw 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;it and described a large black wirly cloud on the ground. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;I took a roll of photos and some video of the damage, and will get them 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;scanned and send some to Rob Webb. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Amazing site, but a long drive there and back to Newcastle in the high 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;30 temps.. yuck. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Matthew Smith 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;http://www.sydneystormchasers.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 17:03:51 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Subject to confirmation, the Australian record high temperature
for October (45.6 at Marble Bar on 27 October 1960) appears to have
been broken. Mandora was reporting 46.0 at noon, while Port Hedland
and Roebourne have both been hovering near or above 45 for the last
few hours, and Marble Bar was at 43.9 at noon.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Brooker, Sean SD" <Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 17:18:48 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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<P><FONT SIZE=2>BHP Billiton - Boodarie Iron Plant recorded 46C at 1100 today.</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Cheers</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sean Brooker</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Turnaround - Area Co-ordinator</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Boodarie Iron - Operations</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Phone: 08 9160 5645</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: Blair Trewin [<A HREF="mailto:blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au">mailto:blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au</A>]</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Monday, 21 October 2002 3:04 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Subject to confirmation, the Australian record high temperature</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>for October (45.6 at Marble Bar on 27 October 1960) appears to have</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>been broken. Mandora was reporting 46.0 at noon, while Port Hedland</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>and Roebourne have both been hovering near or above 45 for the last</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>few hours, and Marble Bar was at 43.9 at noon.</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Blair</FONT>
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<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&nbsp;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>EOM </FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein.&nbsp; If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message.</FONT></P>

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Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 18:22:35 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Blair..
Radio in the Hunter reported Cessnock (39), Taree (40) and Newcastle Uni
(38) all had their October record temp on Saturday.
Is this correct?

Don White 

Blair Trewin wrote:
> 
> Subject to confirmation, the Australian record high temperature
> for October (45.6 at Marble Bar on 27 October 1960) appears to have
> been broken. Mandora was reporting 46.0 at noon, while Port Hedland
> and Roebourne have both been hovering near or above 45 for the last
> few hours, and Marble Bar was at 43.9 at noon.
> 
> Blair
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Early heat in WA
Date: Mon, 21 Oct 2002 22:07:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

This from the BoM on the Western Australian Notes on the Weather page:-

Very hot weather continued throughout the northern half with mostly
clear skies.

Mandora recorded 46.7C,  the highest maximum temperature for October on
record for Australia.
The previous Australian record for October was also broken at several
other towns including Port Hedland with 46.0C.

As far as I can determine, Mandora is near Port Hedland.

Jane



--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 10:08:42 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


> 
> This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand
> this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> 
> ------_=_NextPart_001_01C278D2.19637950
> Content-Type: text/plain
> 
> BHP Billiton - Boodarie Iron Plant recorded 46C at 1100 today.
> 
> Cheers
> Sean Brooker
> Turnaround - Area Co-ordinator
> Boodarie Iron - Operations
> Phone: 08 9160 5645
> 
> 

Where's Boodarie? (I'd guess somewhere in the Pilbara) and what kind of
shelter/exposure does the thermometer have?

Blair

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From: "Brooker, Sean SD" <Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 11:34:57 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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<P><FONT SIZE=2>Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building that is always out of the sun.</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: Blair Trewin [<A HREF="mailto:blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au">mailto:blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au</A>]</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 8:09 AM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; ------_=_NextPart_001_01C278D2.19637950</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Content-Type: text/plain</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; BHP Billiton - Boodarie Iron Plant recorded 46C at 1100 today.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Cheers</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Sean Brooker</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Turnaround - Area Co-ordinator</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Boodarie Iron - Operations</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Phone: 08 9160 5645</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; </FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Where's Boodarie? (I'd guess somewhere in the Pilbara) and what kind of</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>shelter/exposure does the thermometer have?</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Blair</FONT>
</P>

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<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&nbsp;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>EOM </FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein.&nbsp; If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message.</FONT></P>

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 12:03:38 +1000 (EST)
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> 
> Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building that is
> always out of the sun.
> 

Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
clear skies.

Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem 
reasonably consistent.

Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning. 

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 13:39:21 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair Trewin
Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October

> 
> This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
understand
> this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> 
> ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> Content-Type: text/plain
> 
> Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building
that is
> always out of the sun.
> 

Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
clear skies.

Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem 
reasonably consistent.

Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning. 

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 13:52:26 +1000
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Makes the dewpoint minus 7.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October


>
> Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair Trewin
> Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
>
> >
> > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
> understand
> > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> >
> > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> > Content-Type: text/plain
> >
> > Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> > The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building
> that is
> > always out of the sun.
> >
>
> Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
> well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
> re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
> clear skies.
>
> Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
> a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem
> reasonably consistent.
>
> Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.
>
> Blair
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>


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From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 14:09:52 +1000
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Would be a little lower than that...
Port Hedland
Date / Time  22 12:00
Temperature  44.9 C
Dew Point  -19.1 C
Relative Humidity 1 %
Wind Direction  ESE
Wind Speed  31 km/h
Nautical Wind Speed 17 kt
Wind Gust  43 km/h
Nautical Wind Gust 23 kt
Barometric Pressure 1007.9 hPa

Cheers
---------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra, ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------
Member of,
Australian Severe weather Ass.
www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:52 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October


> Makes the dewpoint minus 7.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
>
>
> >
> > Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
> > James Holbeach
> > ----------------------------------------
> > Dept. Chemical Engineering
> > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > ----------------------------------------
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair Trewin
> > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> >
> > >
> > > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
> > understand
> > > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> > >
> > > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> > > Content-Type: text/plain
> > >
> > > Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> > > The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building
> > that is
> > > always out of the sun.
> > >
> >
> > Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
> > well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
> > re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
> > clear skies.
> >
> > Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
> > a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem
> > reasonably consistent.
> >
> > Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.
> >
> > Blair
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 14:59:53 +1000
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Not according to my (official) dewpoint and humidity tables
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
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This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 2:09 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October


> Would be a little lower than that...
> Port Hedland
> Date / Time  22 12:00
> Temperature  44.9 C
> Dew Point  -19.1 C
> Relative Humidity 1 %
> Wind Direction  ESE
> Wind Speed  31 km/h
> Nautical Wind Speed 17 kt
> Wind Gust  43 km/h
> Nautical Wind Gust 23 kt
> Barometric Pressure 1007.9 hPa
>
> Cheers
> ---------------------------------
> Simon Angell
> Canberra, ACT
> www.canberra-wx.com
> ---------------------------------------------
> Member of,
> Australian Severe weather Ass.
> www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:52 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
>
>
> > Makes the dewpoint minus 7.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
to
> > be virus free.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
> > > James Holbeach
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > > Dept. Chemical Engineering
> > > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair
Trewin
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> > >
> > > >
> > > > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
> > > understand
> > > > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> > > >
> > > > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> > > > Content-Type: text/plain
> > > >
> > > > Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> > > > The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building
> > > that is
> > > > always out of the sun.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
> > > well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
> > > re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
> > > clear skies.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
> > > a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem
> > > reasonably consistent.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.
> > >
> > > Blair
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
>
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From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 15:04:08 +1000
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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On checking,oops! my mistake. That would be pretty close.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 2:09 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October


> Would be a little lower than that...
> Port Hedland
> Date / Time  22 12:00
> Temperature  44.9 C
> Dew Point  -19.1 C
> Relative Humidity 1 %
> Wind Direction  ESE
> Wind Speed  31 km/h
> Nautical Wind Speed 17 kt
> Wind Gust  43 km/h
> Nautical Wind Gust 23 kt
> Barometric Pressure 1007.9 hPa
>
> Cheers
> ---------------------------------
> Simon Angell
> Canberra, ACT
> www.canberra-wx.com
> ---------------------------------------------
> Member of,
> Australian Severe weather Ass.
> www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:52 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
>
>
> > Makes the dewpoint minus 7.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
to
> > be virus free.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
> > > James Holbeach
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > > Dept. Chemical Engineering
> > > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair
Trewin
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> > >
> > > >
> > > > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
> > > understand
> > > > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> > > >
> > > > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> > > > Content-Type: text/plain
> > > >
> > > > Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> > > > The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate building
> > > that is
> > > > always out of the sun.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature fairly
> > > well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
> > > re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
> > > clear skies.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
> > > a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem
> > > reasonably consistent.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.
> > >
> > > Blair
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 15:27:02 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Well it was a new record . . .
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20021022.shtml

 . . .

WA town hits 46.7°C, sets new Australian record for October

The Australian record for the highest maximum temperature in October was
yesterday broken in the Western Australian town of Mandora. The coastal
Pilbara town, about half way between Broome and Port Hedland, recorded a
maximum temperature of 46.7 degrees Celsius. The previous record of 45.6
degrees was recorded at both Marble Bar on October 27, 1960, and Port
Hedland Post Office on October 25, 1926. 
The Australian record for the highest maximum temperature in October was
also broken yesterday at Pardoo (46.2 degrees), Port Hedland (46.0) and
Roebourne (45.8).


James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 3:04 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October

On checking,oops! my mistake. That would be pretty close.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 2:09 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October


> Would be a little lower than that...
> Port Hedland
> Date / Time  22 12:00
> Temperature  44.9 C
> Dew Point  -19.1 C
> Relative Humidity 1 %
> Wind Direction  ESE
> Wind Speed  31 km/h
> Nautical Wind Speed 17 kt
> Wind Gust  43 km/h
> Nautical Wind Gust 23 kt
> Barometric Pressure 1007.9 hPa
>
> Cheers
> ---------------------------------
> Simon Angell
> Canberra, ACT
> www.canberra-wx.com
> ---------------------------------------------
> Member of,
> Australian Severe weather Ass.
> www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:52 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
>
>
> > Makes the dewpoint minus 7.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> --
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
to
> > be virus free.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!
> > > James Holbeach
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > > Dept. Chemical Engineering
> > > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > > ----------------------------------------
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Blair
Trewin
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
> > >
> > > >
> > > > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not
> > > understand
> > > > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible.
> > > >
> > > > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C2796B.3B001D40
> > > > Content-Type: text/plain
> > > >
> > > > Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.
> > > > The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate
building
> > > that is
> > > > always out of the sun.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature
fairly
> > > well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of
> > > re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under
> > > clear skies.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to
> > > a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem
> > > reasonably consistent.
> > >
> > > Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.
> > >
> > > Blair
> > >
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> >
 
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
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> >
> >
>
>
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From: "Brooker, Sean SD" <Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 16:23:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<TITLE>RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</TITLE>
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<P><FONT SIZE=2>Mandora is actually a cattle station</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sean</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: James Holbeach [<A HREF="mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au">mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au</A>]</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 1:27 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>Well it was a new record . . .</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2><A HREF="http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20021022.shtml" TARGET="_blank">http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/wa/20021022.shtml</A></FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>&nbsp;. . .</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>WA town hits 46.7°C, sets new Australian record for October</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>The Australian record for the highest maximum temperature in October was</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>yesterday broken in the Western Australian town of Mandora. The coastal</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Pilbara town, about half way between Broome and Port Hedland, recorded a</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>maximum temperature of 46.7 degrees Celsius. The previous record of 45.6</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>degrees was recorded at both Marble Bar on October 27, 1960, and Port</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Hedland Post Office on October 25, 1926. </FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>The Australian record for the highest maximum temperature in October was</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>also broken yesterday at Pardoo (46.2 degrees), Port Hedland (46.0) and</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Roebourne (45.8).</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>James Holbeach</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>----------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Dept. Chemical Engineering</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>University of Melbourne, Australia</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>ph. +61 3 8344 6652</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>----------------------------------------</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>-----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>[<A HREF="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A>] On Behalf Of Keith</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Barnett</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 3:04 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
</P>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>On checking,oops! my mistake. That would be pretty close.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Keith Barnett</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Weather fanatic and classical musician</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Website: <A HREF="http://www.wthrman.com" TARGET="_blank">http://www.wthrman.com</A></FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>------------------------------------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>-----------------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>to</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>be virus free.</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>----- Original Message -----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>From: &quot;Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com&quot; &lt;simon at canberra-wx.com&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>To: &lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 2:09 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
</P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Would be a little lower than that...</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Port Hedland</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Date / Time&nbsp; 22 12:00</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Temperature&nbsp; 44.9 C</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Dew Point&nbsp; -19.1 C</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Relative Humidity 1 %</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Wind Direction&nbsp; ESE</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Wind Speed&nbsp; 31 km/h</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Nautical Wind Speed 17 kt</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Wind Gust&nbsp; 43 km/h</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Nautical Wind Gust 23 kt</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Barometric Pressure 1007.9 hPa</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Cheers</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; ---------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Simon Angell</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Canberra, ACT</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; www.canberra-wx.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; ---------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Member of,</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Australian Severe weather Ass.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; www.severeweather.asn.au</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; --------------------------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; ----- Original Message -----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; From: &quot;Keith Barnett&quot; &lt;kbarnett at bigpond.net.au&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; To: &lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:52 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Makes the dewpoint minus 7.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Keith Barnett</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Weather fanatic and classical musician</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Website: <A HREF="http://www.wthrman.com" TARGET="_blank">http://www.wthrman.com</A></FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>------------------------------------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>--</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; --</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; -----------------------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>certified</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>to</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; be virus free.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; ----- Original Message -----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; From: &quot;James Holbeach&quot; &lt;james at trapdoor.com.au&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; To: &lt;aussie-weather at world.std.com&gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 1:39 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Pt Headland 44.5C  at  11:30 and a RH of 2%!!!!</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; James Holbeach</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; ----------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Dept. Chemical Engineering</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; University of Melbourne, Australia</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; ph. +61 3 8344 6652</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; ----------------------------------------</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; -----Original Message-----</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; [<A HREF="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A>] On Behalf Of Blair</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>Trewin</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 12:04 PM</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not</FONT>
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<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Boodarie is about 15km just south of South Hedland.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; The sender is in the shade on the side of a security gate</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>building</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; that is</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; always out of the sun.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Such a set-up will approximate a Stevenson screen temperature</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>fairly</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; well, but will over-read relative to a Stevenson screen because of</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; re-radiation from the ground - typically by 1-1.5 degrees under</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; clear skies.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Port Hedland was 43.9 at 1100 yesterday, so, adjusting the 46.0 to</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; a likely Stevenson screen temperature of 44.5-45.0, the two seem</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; reasonably consistent.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Port Hedland has reached 42.8 by 9.40 this morning.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt; Blair</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=2>&gt; &gt; &gt;</FONT>
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<P><FONT SIZE=2>EOM </FONT>
</P>

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 20:38:53 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 20:59:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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1002.3 here after 1017 at midnight (last night)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 8:38 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night


> Evening all,
>
> I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
> not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
> moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 21:11:07 +1000
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Hi Bussy.......My pressure has just reached 991hpa (2045) after 1018 last
midnight. The trough is just going through the Geelong district wind has
just shifted to the west. regards Clyve h.
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 8:59 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night


> 1002.3 here after 1017 at midnight (last night)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 8:38 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
>
>
> > Evening all,
> >
> > I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
> > not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
> > moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..
> >
> > Jane
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
>
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 21:17:46 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Mine is now 991hPa - Nth Melb

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 8:39 PM
To: Aussie-wx
Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night

Evening all,

I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 21:40:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Strong dust devil
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hello,

Today it looks as though a fairly strong dust devil occurred within a few 
hundred metres from out place. I was not home but it was described that at 
around 1pm a loud noise was heard similar to clanging noise. Well what was 
observed was material sheets of iron and so on clanging together. One was 
coloured green and therefore easily visible 50 or so metres in the air.

I feel this is similar to but perhaps stronger than other dust devils I had 
observed developing over our dam. This one also MAY have developed over the 
dam which is where the sheets of iron would have come from. It was would 
have been great to capture on video but I was not here and these things 
develop quite quickly and randomly. I thought it would be great to share 
the experience with others.

Cheers.

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strong dust devil
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 22:00:22 +1000
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I wonder if it had to do with the onset of the northeaster today?
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 9:40 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Strong dust devil


> Hello,
>
> Today it looks as though a fairly strong dust devil occurred within a few
> hundred metres from out place. I was not home but it was described that at
> around 1pm a loud noise was heard similar to clanging noise. Well what was
> observed was material sheets of iron and so on clanging together. One was
> coloured green and therefore easily visible 50 or so metres in the air.
>
> I feel this is similar to but perhaps stronger than other dust devils I
had
> observed developing over our dam. This one also MAY have developed over
the
> dam which is where the sheets of iron would have come from. It was would
> have been great to capture on video but I was not here and these things
> develop quite quickly and randomly. I thought it would be great to share
> the experience with others.
>
> Cheers.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Please note the change to my new e-mail
> address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Hailstorm 13th October - north of Melbourne
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 22:49:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

Andrew McDonald's report and amazing images of the storms we had last
Saturday 13th can be found here
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/13_10_02.htm

Enjoy!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 02:41:29 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for October</TITLE>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Hi everyone </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>A while back, in July actually, I predicted (by plotting 
the orbits of the moon)very dry conditions right through to November, to which 
David Jones replied</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>&gt; Ken,<BR>&gt;...what is so special about the moon's 
behavior this year that<BR>&gt; leads you to believe that the August through 
November period should only get<BR>&gt; ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that 
would place it within the driest<BR>&gt; 10% of historical observations, and not 
far from the driest such period on<BR>&gt; record? <BR>&gt; Given the shear 
desperation of many rural producers currently enduring<BR>&gt; drought in 
eastern Australia, I trust you have a very good scientific theory<BR>&gt; to 
back your profound and detailed predictions.<BR>&gt; Regards,<BR>&gt; 
David<BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Given the continuing dry conditions, it may be said that 
my scientific theory is indeed good and sound.&nbsp; I&nbsp;suggest more proof 
is not needed.&nbsp;&nbsp;Would&nbsp;David care to respond?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Ken Ring</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial><A 
href="http://www.predictweather.com">www.predictweather.com</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 00:32:44 +1000
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I have never seen Canberra AWS below 1000hpa (not to say it hasn't happned)
but right now its 998.1hpa

Cheers
---------------------------------
Simon Angell
Canberra, ACT
www.canberra-wx.com
---------------------------------------------
Member of,
Australian Severe weather Ass.
www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 9:17 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night


> Mine is now 991hPa - Nth Melb
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 8:39 PM
> To: Aussie-wx
> Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
>
> Evening all,
>
> I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
> not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
> moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>


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X-Originating-IP: [210.50.228.5]
From: "Ben Jerrems" <beanzvision at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: radar?????
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 00:52:00 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Oct 2002 14:52:00.0473 (UTC) FILETIME=[93871490:01C279DA]
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<x-html>
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<DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>Is it me or is the lightning tracker  at  weatherzone not working? Every time i hit on it (every half hour or so!) it seems to be stuck on the the time!!!!!<BR><BR><BR>
<DIV><FONT face="Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Sans-serif">BEANZVISION Photographics.</FONT></DIV>
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From: "Simon Angell - www.canberra-wx.com" <simon at canberra-wx.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 03:51:56 +1000
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pressure dropping very rapidly, now 991hpa, wind 
slowly picking up...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Canberra Airport<BR>Date / Time&nbsp;&nbsp;23 
03:39<BR>Temperature&nbsp;&nbsp;15.8 C<BR>Dew Point&nbsp;&nbsp;0.4 C<BR>Relative 
Humidity&nbsp;36 %<BR>Wind Direction&nbsp;&nbsp;N<BR>Wind Speed&nbsp;&nbsp;22 
km/h<BR>Nautical Wind Speed&nbsp;12 kt<BR>Wind Gust&nbsp;&nbsp;33 
km/h<BR>Nautical Wind Gust&nbsp;18 kt<BR><STRONG>Barometric Pressure&nbsp;991.2 
hPa</STRONG><BR>Rain Since 9am&nbsp;&nbsp;0.0 mm</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>7hpa drop in 3.5hours and wind has gone from 3knot 
gusts to 22knot gust....</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>Cheers<BR>---------------------------------<BR>Simon Angell<BR>Canberra, 
ACT<BR></FONT><A href="http://www.canberra-wx.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>www.canberra-wx.com</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>---------------------------------------------<BR>Member of the ASWA 
~|~<BR>(Australian Severe Weather Ass.)<BR></FONT><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>www.severeweather.asn.au</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>--------------------------------------------------------------</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From: "Simon Angell - </FONT><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>www.canberra-wx.com</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial size=2>" &lt;</FONT><A 
href="mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>simon at canberra-wx.com</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>To: &lt;</FONT><A 
href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 12:32 
AM</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday 
night</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt; I have never seen Canberra AWS below 1000hpa 
(not to say it hasn't happned)<BR>&gt; but right now its 998.1hpa<BR>&gt; 
<BR>&gt; Cheers<BR>&gt; ---------------------------------<BR>&gt; Simon 
Angell<BR>&gt; Canberra, ACT<BR>&gt; </FONT><A 
href="http://www.canberra-wx.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>www.canberra-wx.com</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt; 
---------------------------------------------<BR>&gt; Member of,<BR>&gt; 
Australian Severe weather Ass.<BR>&gt; </FONT><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>www.severeweather.asn.au</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt; 
--------------------------------------------------------------<BR>&gt; ----- 
Original Message -----<BR>&gt; From: "James Holbeach" &lt;</FONT><A 
href="mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>james at trapdoor.com.au</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt;<BR>&gt; To: 
&lt;</FONT><A href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&gt;<BR>&gt; Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 9:17 PM<BR>&gt; Subject: RE: 
aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night<BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; <BR>&gt; &gt; Mine is now 991hPa 
- Nth Melb<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; James Holbeach<BR>&gt; &gt; 
--------------------------------<BR>&gt; &gt; Trapdoor Ski Club<BR>&gt; &gt; Mt. 
Hotham, Australia<BR>&gt; &gt; ph. 0417 553 757<BR>&gt; &gt; </FONT><A 
href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>http://www.trapdoor.com.au</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial size=2>&gt; 
&gt; --------------------------------<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; -----Original 
Message-----<BR>&gt; &gt; From: </FONT><A 
href="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&gt; &gt; [</FONT><A 
href="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com"><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</FONT></A><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill<BR>&gt; &gt; Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 
8:39 PM<BR>&gt; &gt; To: Aussie-wx<BR>&gt; &gt; Subject: aus-wx: Victoria 
Tuesday night<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; Evening all,<BR>&gt; &gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; I 
don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well<BR>&gt; 
&gt; not since 1993)!!!&nbsp; This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as 
it<BR>&gt; &gt; moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..<BR>&gt; 
&gt;<BR>&gt; &gt; Jane<BR>&gt; &gt; --------------------------------<BR>&gt; 
&gt; Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR>&gt; &gt; </FONT><A 
href="mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com"><FONT face=Arial 
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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Low Bar
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 06:45:36 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My barometer bottomed out at 995.7 at 12.07am this 
morning followed by a wind gust of 46kmh and point 4mm of rain. Lowest barometer 
I've recorded so far on my Wx station. Bet there were some much lower readings 
about than that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hailstorm 13th October - north of Melbourne
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 06:53:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Great stuff! Love the pictures. Can someone explain to me again what a storm
looks like :-(

> Andrew McDonald's report and amazing images of the storms we had last
> Saturday 13th can be found here
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/13_10_02.htm



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Low pressure
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 06:59:18 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Barograph is 'bottoming out' here at 991.0 which 
has broken the previous lowest reading of 992.6 in 1979 (for October). (The cold 
front can be seen approaching from the west.). Makes it a 1 in 90 year 
event.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hailstorm 13th October - north of Melbourne
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 07:37:51 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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it's one of those things you get in central vic all the time and NOT in
south east south australia, last storms here, oct 2001.

regards
richard
naracoorte


----- Original Message -----
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 6:23 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hailstorm 13th October - north of Melbourne


> Great stuff! Love the pictures. Can someone explain to me again what a
storm
> looks like :-(
>
> > Andrew McDonald's report and amazing images of the storms we had last
> > Saturday 13th can be found here
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/13_10_02.htm
>
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strong dust devil
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 08:28:14 +1000
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That's actually rather funny, we yesterday got the biggest dust devil I
have ever seen on this property with the same tin banging noises. It
also went for the longest that I have ever seen, all the way down our
driveway and then down into the creek where I lost sight. The
circumference on it was bigger than most here. Also on another topic, I
woke up to an alarm on freewx this morning, the barometer here is
sitting on 985hPa and falling rapidly.

------------------------------------
Glen O'Riley
Computer Technician
Kings Creek
Krambach, 2429
Australia
Phone: 02 65591232
Fax: 02 6559 1348
Mobile: 0439 878 633
Email: goriley at tsn.cc
Web: www.mypage.tsn.cc/oriley
ABN: 42 674 332 428
------------------------------------
Storm Chaser
Rail Fan
Electronics & Radio
NSW Rural Fire Service Firefighter
NSW State Emergency Services Member
------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jimmy
Deguara
Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 9:41 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Strong dust devil


Hello,

Today it looks as though a fairly strong dust devil occurred within a
few 
hundred metres from out place. I was not home but it was described that
at 
around 1pm a loud noise was heard similar to clanging noise. Well what
was 
observed was material sheets of iron and so on clanging together. One
was 
coloured green and therefore easily visible 50 or so metres in the air.

I feel this is similar to but perhaps stronger than other dust devils I
had 
observed developing over our dam. This one also MAY have developed over
the 
dam which is where the sheets of iron would have come from. It was would

have been great to capture on video but I was not here and these things 
develop quite quickly and randomly. I thought it would be great to share

the experience with others.

Cheers.

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours -
http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rec High/Rec Low
Date: Tue, 22 Oct 2002 18:48:03 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; I was 
wondering if any town in Australia set a record low in the morning and set a 
record high on the afternoon of THE SAME DAY? I believe an occurrence such as 
this happened some time back in Chicago, Illinois.(They set a record high on the 
evening, then they set a record low in the morning as a powerful Arctic cold 
front came through). Chicago has some very changeable weather!!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Wishing ALL a 
Great rest of the month&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: mbath at mail.ozemail.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 10:58:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
even 996 now on the NSW far north coast !



At 03:51 AM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Pressure dropping very rapidly, now 991hpa, wind slowly picking up...
>
>Canberra Airport
>Date / Time  23 03:39
>Temperature  15.8 C
>Dew Point  0.4 C
>Relative Humidity 36 %
>Wind Direction  N
>Wind Speed  22 km/h
>Nautical Wind Speed 12 kt
>Wind Gust  33 km/h
>Nautical Wind Gust 18 kt
>Barometric Pressure 991.2 hPa
>Rain Since 9am  0.0 mm
>
>7hpa drop in 3.5hours and wind has gone from 3knot gusts to 22knot gust....
>
>Cheers
>---------------------------------
>Simon Angell
>Canberra, ACT
><http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com
>---------------------------------------------
>Member of the ASWA ~|~
>(Australian Severe Weather Ass.)
><http://www.severeweather.asn.au>www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------------------------------------
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Simon Angell - <http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com" 
><<mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com>simon at canberra-wx.com>
>To: <<mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 12:32 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
>
> > I have never seen Canberra AWS below 1000hpa (not to say it hasn't happned)
> > but right now its 998.1hpa
> >
> > Cheers
> > ---------------------------------
> > Simon Angell
> > Canberra, ACT
> > <http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com
> > ---------------------------------------------
> > Member of,
> > Australian Severe weather Ass.
> > <http://www.severeweather.asn.au>www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "James Holbeach" 
> <<mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au>james at trapdoor.com.au>
> > To: <<mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 9:17 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
> >
> >
> > > Mine is now 991hPa - Nth Melb
> > >
> > > James Holbeach
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Trapdoor Ski Club
> > > Mt. Hotham, Australia
> > > ph. 0417 553 757
> > > <http://www.trapdoor.com.au>http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: 
> <mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com>aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> > > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 8:39 PM
> > > To: Aussie-wx
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
> > >
> > > Evening all,
> > >
> > > I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
> > > not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
> > > moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..
> > >
> > > Jane
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > 
> <mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com>cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > >
> > > Australian Sky & Weather
> > > <http://www.stormchasers.au.com>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > > <http://www.severeweather.asn.au>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
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  ===================================================================
  Michael Bath     mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges   co-webmaster:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
  North Coast NSW  webmaster:      http://lightningphotography.com/
  Australia        ASWA president: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  ===================================================================

</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 11:15:45 +1000
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


988 across the hunter valley and Sydney

Matt Smith

Michael Bath wrote:

> even 996 now on the NSW far north coast !
>
> At 03:51 AM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>
> >Pressure dropping very rapidly, now 991hpa, wind slowly picking up...
> >
> >Canberra Airport
> >Date / Time  23 03:39
> >Temperature  15.8 C
> >Dew Point  0.4 C
> >Relative Humidity 36 %
> >Wind Direction  N
> >Wind Speed  22 km/h
> >Nautical Wind Speed 12 kt
> >Wind Gust  33 km/h
> >Nautical Wind Gust 18 kt
> >Barometric Pressure 991.2 hPa
> >Rain Since 9am  0.0 mm
> >
> >7hpa drop in 3.5hours and wind has gone from 3knot gusts to 22knot gust....
> >
> >Cheers
> >---------------------------------
> >Simon Angell
> >Canberra, ACT
> ><http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com
> >---------------------------------------------
> >Member of the ASWA ~|~
> >(Australian Severe Weather Ass.)
> ><http://www.severeweather.asn.au>www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------------------------------------
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Simon Angell - <http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com"
> ><<mailto:simon at canberra-wx.com>simon at canberra-wx.com>
> >To: <<mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 12:32 AM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
> >
> > > I have never seen Canberra AWS below 1000hpa (not to say it hasn't happned)
> > > but right now its 998.1hpa
> > >
> > > Cheers
> > > ---------------------------------
> > > Simon Angell
> > > Canberra, ACT
> > > <http://www.canberra-wx.com>www.canberra-wx.com
> > > ---------------------------------------------
> > > Member of,
> > > Australian Severe weather Ass.
> > > <http://www.severeweather.asn.au>www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------------------------------------
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "James Holbeach"
> > <<mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au>james at trapdoor.com.au>
> > > To: <<mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, October 22, 2002 9:17 PM
> > > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
> > >
> > >
> > > > Mine is now 991hPa - Nth Melb
> > > >
> > > > James Holbeach
> > > > --------------------------------
> > > > Trapdoor Ski Club
> > > > Mt. Hotham, Australia
> > > > ph. 0417 553 757
> > > > <http://www.trapdoor.com.au>http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> > > > --------------------------------
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From:
> > <mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com>aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 8:39 PM
> > > > To: Aussie-wx
> > > > Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Tuesday night
> > > >
> > > > Evening all,
> > > >
> > > > I don't remember my barometer ever being as low as 992hPa before (well
> > > > not since 1993)!!!  This trough is certainly amplifying nicely as it
> > > > moves east! Port Fairy got down to 990.0hPa..
> > > >
> > > > Jane
> > > > --------------------------------
> > > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > >
> > <mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com>cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > > >
> > > > Australian Sky & Weather
> > > > <http://www.stormchasers.au.com>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > > >
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Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 11:55:50 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian Coldies
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Hi all.
Just had a SEVERE Hail storm go through 
Hamilton!!!!!!  
I recorded 6mm in 5 mins at my house with hail now 
covering the yard. Could be a little flash flooding in 
the area as gutters are chockas. 
Wind gusts would've had to be in the vicinity of 40-
50knots!!!! 

Cheers.
Tim Eckert.
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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rec High/Rec Low
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 12:23:58 +1000 (EST)
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> 
> This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
> 
> ------=_NextPart_000_0007_01C279FB.8D54EAE0
> Content-Type: text/plain;
> 	charset="iso-8859-1"
> Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
> 
> Hello All:
>        I was wondering if any town in Australia set a record low in the =
> morning and set a record high on the afternoon of THE SAME DAY? I =
> believe an occurrence such as this happened some time back in Chicago, =
> Illinois.(They set a record high on the evening, then they set a record =
> low in the morning as a powerful Arctic cold front came through). =
> Chicago has some very changeable weather!!!
>        Wishing ALL a Great rest of the month    Yours     David Powell
> 

The American usage of the term 'record high/low' differs from the
Australian; normally in North America this refers to a record for
the date (not the month, as would normally be implied in Australia).
Obviously date records are much easier to set than monthly ones!

Under the American usage, such events are rare but not unknown in
Australia - for example the Canberra record high (17.7) and low
(-6.7) for June 7 were both set in 1957.

Blair
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 13:39:42 +1000
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Some very low barometer readings for October on the NSW central and north
coasts as the trough moves through. At 1pm, most reports from Sydney north
to Grafton were in the high 980s. Check the "latest" and recent synoptics at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml and look for the pressure
readings to the top right of each station.

What's also interesting is that, although there are pretty solid pressure
falls ahead of the trough (around 5 to 6hPa/3 hour on the south Qld coast),
the rises behind are quite modest, mostly in the 2 to 3hPa/3 hour range.
With such a vigorous change, you'd expect more ear-popping rises. (Pressure
changes are shown on the 3-hourly synoptics just under the pressure reading)

Laurier

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From: "Richard Maslin" <richard at dentforce.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian Coldies
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 14:03:55 +1000
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hi tim,

i am interested to see if the hail was large or small like the hail that hit
us here in diamond creek. We had pea size hail that lasted for ten minutes,
its hailing again right now again pea sized.

regards

phill camp
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Eckert" <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 11:55 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian Coldies


> Hi all.
> Just had a SEVERE Hail storm go through
> Hamilton!!!!!!
> I recorded 6mm in 5 mins at my house with hail now
> covering the yard. Could be a little flash flooding in
> the area as gutters are chockas.
> Wind gusts would've had to be in the vicinity of 40-
> 50knots!!!!
>
> Cheers.
> Tim Eckert.
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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 14:33:47 +1000
Organization: The Weather Co.
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Today's just one of those days where it's all happening. Anyone with
some sort of summary in front of them will have reports highlighted for
snow in Tassie, dust storms in NSW and QLD, temps of -2 in the Victorian
high country ranging to 43 in the Kimberley, gales with gusts to 50 kts
in the SE...the list goes on - and that's all within the last few hours.

That's the way we like it!

Andrew.


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Laurier
Williams
Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2002 1:40 PM
To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com
Subject: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW


Some very low barometer readings for October on the NSW central and
north coasts as the trough moves through. At 1pm, most reports from
Sydney north to Grafton were in the high 980s. Check the "latest" and
recent synoptics at http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml
and look for the pressure readings to the top right of each station.

What's also interesting is that, although there are pretty solid
pressure falls ahead of the trough (around 5 to 6hPa/3 hour on the south
Qld coast), the rises behind are quite modest, mostly in the 2 to 3hPa/3
hour range. With such a vigorous change, you'd expect more ear-popping
rises. (Pressure changes are shown on the 3-hourly synoptics just under
the pressure reading)

Laurier

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From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 15:09:32 +1000
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Yes, we have a very thick dust cloud right now, has limited vision
severely.

------------------------------------
Glen O'Riley
Computer Technician
Kings Creek
Krambach, 2429
Australia
Phone: 02 65591232
Fax: 02 6559 1348
Mobile: 0439 878 633
Email: goriley at tsn.cc
Web: www.mypage.tsn.cc/oriley
ABN: 42 674 332 428
------------------------------------
Storm Chaser
Rail Fan
Electronics & Radio
NSW Rural Fire Service Firefighter
NSW State Emergency Services Member
------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Andrew
Miskelly
Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2002 2:34 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW


Today's just one of those days where it's all happening. Anyone with
some sort of summary in front of them will have reports highlighted for
snow in Tassie, dust storms in NSW and QLD, temps of -2 in the Victorian
high country ranging to 43 in the Kimberley, gales with gusts to 50 kts
in the SE...the list goes on - and that's all within the last few hours.

That's the way we like it!

Andrew.


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Laurier
Williams
Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2002 1:40 PM
To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com
Subject: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW


Some very low barometer readings for October on the NSW central and
north coasts as the trough moves through. At 1pm, most reports from
Sydney north to Grafton were in the high 980s. Check the "latest" and
recent synoptics at http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml
and look for the pressure readings to the top right of each station.

What's also interesting is that, although there are pretty solid
pressure falls ahead of the trough (around 5 to 6hPa/3 hour on the south
Qld coast), the rises behind are quite modest, mostly in the 2 to 3hPa/3
hour range. With such a vigorous change, you'd expect more ear-popping
rises. (Pressure changes are shown on the 3-hourly synoptics just under
the pressure reading)

Laurier

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From: "Sha" <bilby at useoz.com>
To: "Crystal Unicorns" <Crystal_Unicorns at yahoogroups.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Threatening weather in southern Queensland - Australia
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 15:22:47 +1000
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<x-html>
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</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<P class=storydateline><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 size=4>The 
weather here is NOT GOOD guys !!!</FONT></EM></STRONG></P>
<P class=storydateline><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 
size=4>Toowoomba is about an hour and a half west of where I now live.&nbsp; The 
winds here today are horrific - hot and extremely gusty, almost gale-force I'd 
say.&nbsp; Shocking conditions for fire !!</FONT></EM></STRONG></P>
<P class=storydateline><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 size=4>Love 
</FONT></EM></STRONG><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 
size=4>Sha</FONT></EM></STRONG></P>
<P class=storydateline>
<HR>
Posted: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 14:49 AEST</P>
<H1>Bushfires cause havoc in southern Qld</H1>
<P>Rural and urban firefighters are again battling bushfires in southern 
Queensland.<BR><BR>This afternoon homes in Toowoomba are under 
threat.<BR><BR>Strong gusty winds are fanning the flames and a dust storm is 
expected to cause visibility problems.<BR><BR>One street has been evacuated in 
Blue Mountain Heights in Toowoomba's north, but authorities are considering 
evacuating the entire suburb later this afternoon. <BR><BR>Residents will be 
directed to community halls until the threat passes. <BR><BR>The Centenary 
Highway between Brisbane and Ipswich has been closed because of the fires. 
<BR><BR>Fire breaks have so far contained fires which continue to burn the 
Granite Belt.<BR><BR>A fire which earlier today threatened homes east of Warwick 
has been contained. <BR><BR>Firefighters from Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast and 
Caboolture have travelled to the area to fight the fires.<BR><BR>Conditions are 
expected to deteriorate later this afternoon and tonight.&nbsp; </P>
<P><A 
href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-23oct2002-72.htm">http://www.abc.net.au/news/justin/nat/newsnat-23oct2002-72.htm</A></P>
<P class=storydateline>
<HR>
Wed, Oct 23 2002 2:42 PM AEST</P><!-- Main Image --><!-- End Main Image -->
<H1>Dust storm blankets Qld, NSW</H1>
<P class=byline></P>
<P><STRONG>A massive dust storm is sweeping across inland Queensland and New 
South Wales today.</STRONG> <BR><BR>A strong weather change is moving east, 
whipping up dust from drought-parched lands, blanketing towns in a dark fog. 
<BR><BR>The weather bureau is warning aircraft of thick raised dust. 
<BR><BR>Senior forecaster Greg Bond says he has never seen dust on the satellite 
like this before. <BR><BR>"They're more prevalent when we have dry spells," he 
said.<BR><BR>Wendy Choice-Brooks, mayor of the Murweh Shire in Queensland's 
south-west, says Charleville residents have not seen a dust storm like this 
since 1965. <BR><BR>"It's just this dull, browny, orangey coloured soup that's 
come in," she said.<BR><BR>The dust cloud is expected to reach coastal areas 
late this afternoon. <BR><BR><BR><B>Health warning</B><BR><BR>People with 
breathing difficulties are being advised to stay indoors during the current high 
levels across parts of the state.<BR><BR>Dr Steven Corbutt from New South Wales 
Health says people with asthma and other respiratory difficulties should be 
monitoring their conditions carefully.<BR><BR>"The advice we would give because 
it is dust, is that people will probably get less exposure if they stay indoors, 
and close the windows and probably avoid vigorous exercise on a day like today," 
he said. <BR><BR>"I do note however that as we speak the dust is clearing 
rapidly, it certainly has in the last hour. " </P>
<P><A 
href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2002/10/item20021023131925_1.htm">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2002/10/item20021023131925_1.htm</A></P>
<P>
<HR>
</P>
<P><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 
size=4></FONT></EM></STRONG>&nbsp;</P>
<P><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Papyrus color=#000080 size=4><BR>---<BR>Outgoing mail 
is certified Virus Free.<BR>Checked by AVG anti-virus system (<A 
href="http://www.grisoft.com">http://www.grisoft.com</A>).<BR>Version: 6.0.406 / 
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21/10/2002</FONT></EM></STRONG></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 15:37:28 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Dont forget the hail in Vic!!

Amazing contrast in weather.

Paul in a Freezing Melb.
:-)
----- Original Message -----
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 2:03 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW


> Today's just one of those days where it's all happening. Anyone with
> some sort of summary in front of them will have reports highlighted for
> snow in Tassie, dust storms in NSW and QLD, temps of -2 in the Victorian
> high country ranging to 43 in the Kimberley, gales with gusts to 50 kts
> in the SE...the list goes on - and that's all within the last few hours.
>
> That's the way we like it!
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Laurier
> Williams
> Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2002 1:40 PM
> To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com
> Subject: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
>
>
> Some very low barometer readings for October on the NSW central and
> north coasts as the trough moves through. At 1pm, most reports from
> Sydney north to Grafton were in the high 980s. Check the "latest" and
> recent synoptics at http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml
> and look for the pressure readings to the top right of each station.
>
> What's also interesting is that, although there are pretty solid
> pressure falls ahead of the trough (around 5 to 6hPa/3 hour on the south
> Qld coast), the rises behind are quite modest, mostly in the 2 to 3hPa/3
> hour range. With such a vigorous change, you'd expect more ear-popping
> rises. (Pressure changes are shown on the 3-hourly synoptics just under
> the pressure reading)
>
> Laurier
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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X-Originating-IP: [203.220.152.80]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:47:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Dust has moved through the NE NSW region now, baro at 992hpa. I just went on
a dust storm chase, and when SDS has set in, it is an alright substitute!

Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 4:07 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW


> Dont forget the hail in Vic!!
>
> Amazing contrast in weather.
>
> Paul in a Freezing Melb.
> :-)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 2:03 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
>
>
> > Today's just one of those days where it's all happening. Anyone with
> > some sort of summary in front of them will have reports highlighted for
> > snow in Tassie, dust storms in NSW and QLD, temps of -2 in the Victorian
> > high country ranging to 43 in the Kimberley, gales with gusts to 50 kts
> > in the SE...the list goes on - and that's all within the last few hours.
> >
> > That's the way we like it!
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Laurier
> > Williams
> > Sent: Wednesday, 23 October 2002 1:40 PM
> > To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com
> > Subject: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
> >
> >
> > Some very low barometer readings for October on the NSW central and
> > north coasts as the trough moves through. At 1pm, most reports from
> > Sydney north to Grafton were in the high 980s. Check the "latest" and
> > recent synoptics at http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml
> > and look for the pressure readings to the top right of each station.
> >
> > What's also interesting is that, although there are pretty solid
> > pressure falls ahead of the trough (around 5 to 6hPa/3 hour on the south
> > Qld coast), the rises behind are quite modest, mostly in the 2 to 3hPa/3
> > hour range. With such a vigorous change, you'd expect more ear-popping
> > rises. (Pressure changes are shown on the 3-hourly synoptics just under
> > the pressure reading)
> >
> > Laurier
> >
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:50:31 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strong dust devil
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Yes Glen, these can be widespread and great that you experienced it too. 
Don't muck around with some dust devils as they can be quite strong.

Jimmy Dgeuara

At 08:28 AM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>That's actually rather funny, we yesterday got the biggest dust devil I
>have ever seen on this property with the same tin banging noises. It
>also went for the longest that I have ever seen, all the way down our
>driveway and then down into the creek where I lost sight. The
>circumference on it was bigger than most here. Also on another topic, I
>woke up to an alarm on freewx this morning, the barometer here is
>sitting on 985hPa and falling rapidly.
>
>------------------------------------
>Glen O'Riley
>Computer Technician
>Kings Creek
>Krambach, 2429
>Australia
>Phone: 02 65591232
>Fax: 02 6559 1348
>Mobile: 0439 878 633
>Email: goriley at tsn.cc
>Web: www.mypage.tsn.cc/oriley
>ABN: 42 674 332 428
>------------------------------------
>Storm Chaser
>Rail Fan
>Electronics & Radio
>NSW Rural Fire Service Firefighter
>NSW State Emergency Services Member
>------------------------------------
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jimmy
>Deguara
>Sent: Tuesday, 22 October 2002 9:41 PM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Strong dust devil
>
>
>Hello,
>
>Today it looks as though a fairly strong dust devil occurred within a
>few
>hundred metres from out place. I was not home but it was described that
>at
>around 1pm a loud noise was heard similar to clanging noise. Well what
>was
>observed was material sheets of iron and so on clanging together. One
>was
>coloured green and therefore easily visible 50 or so metres in the air.
>
>I feel this is similar to but perhaps stronger than other dust devils I
>had
>observed developing over our dam. This one also MAY have developed over
>the
>dam which is where the sheets of iron would have come from. It was would
>
>have been great to capture on video but I was not here and these things
>develop quite quickly and randomly. I thought it would be great to share
>
>the experience with others.
>
>Cheers.
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Please note the change to my new e-mail
>address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours -
>http://www.thunderbolttours.com
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>to:majordomo at world.std.com  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather readings
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:56:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have just finished putting up the last 25 years 
of my weather readings at</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html">http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>These include the latest readings up to 
today.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 17:09:16 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Afternoon all,

A couple of amazing images of the dust through New South Wales &
Queensland......

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust1023.jpg
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust102301.jpg

Many thanks to the BoM for the images.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky and Weather
www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Weather readings
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 18:30:45 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Wow, 
Keith. That's pretty impressive and represents a huge amount of work and 
dedication. Well done!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>In the 
stats analysis at the bottom, what's meant by the line "anomalies this 
year"?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Laurier</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Keith 
  Barnett<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 23 October, 2002 4:56 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  Weather list<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather readings<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have just finished putting up the last 25 years 
  of my weather readings at</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html">http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>These include the latest readings up to 
  today.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
  musician<BR><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
  message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
  free.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather readings
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 18:49:48 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>They are the departures of the particular month's 
averages from the 'avg all years' a little higher up.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=wbc at ozemail.com.au href="mailto:wbc at ozemail.com.au">Laurier 
  Williams</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 23, 2002 6:30 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: Weather 
  readings</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Wow, 
  Keith. That's pretty impressive and represents a huge amount of work and 
  dedication. Well done!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>In 
  the stats analysis at the bottom, what's meant by the line "anomalies this 
  year"?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Laurier</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=773592808-23102002></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> <A 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A> 
    [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Keith 
    Barnett<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 23 October, 2002 4:56 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
    Weather list<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Weather 
readings<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have just finished putting up the last 25 
    years of my weather readings at</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
    href="http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html">http://www.wthrman.com/Months.html</A></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>These include the latest readings up to 
    today.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
    musician<BR><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
    message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be 
    virus free.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 19:28:23 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all,
        Amazing pics!! Excellent Res. Check out the following from the ABC
website:

'Biggest dust storm in 20 years' passes across Qld
A leading dust storm expert says a dust storm that is passing across central
Queensland and due to hit Brisbane later today, is the biggest seen in
eastern Australia in the past 20 years.

The storm is travelling in a line from south of Hobart to Mount Isa and is
carrying millions of tonnes of top soil.

Professor Grant McTanish says hot northerly winds are carrying the storm.

"It's timely in the sense that we could tell that it was going to happen,"
he said.

"The convergence of high wind speeds and the drought with reduced vegetation
cover to protect the soil... in a sense it was a disaster waiting to
happen."

Cheers Peter



----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 23, 2002 5:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia


> Afternoon all,
>
> A couple of amazing images of the dust through New South Wales &
> Queensland......
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust1023.jpg
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust102301.jpg
>
> Many thanks to the BoM for the images.
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky and Weather
> www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 21:43:02 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost 4
hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know Roger's
history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......

If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere in
Australia)
Format - NTSC
Very limited production run.

Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by sending
an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 22:55:08 +1000
From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian Coldies
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Mirapoint Webmail Direct 3.1.0.58-GA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Further to this morning's action. Some really nice 
coldies were evident around the place this arvo with 
some more hail and heavy showers.
I've recorded 18mm now in the last 24 hours.
Photos from today can be found 
at:http://weatherchaser.members.easyspace.com/23O
ct02

Cheers,
Tim Eckert.


---- Original message ----
>Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 11:55:50 +1000
>From: Tim Eckert <timeckert at austarnet.com.au>  
>Subject: aus-wx: Victorian Coldies  
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>Hi all.
>Just had a SEVERE Hail storm go through 
>Hamilton!!!!!!  
>I recorded 6mm in 5 mins at my house with hail now 
>covering the yard. Could be a little flash flooding in 
>the area as gutters are chockas. 
>Wind gusts would've had to be in the vicinity of 40-
>50knots!!!! 
>
>Cheers.
>Tim Eckert.
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------
--------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall analysis
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 23:57:52 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Those of you in NSW who were present at the March 
2002 ASWA meeting will recall the talk I gave at that meeting on the results of 
my analysis of rainfall in Sydney (also at the May AMOS meeting).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have now written it up and you can see it at the 
following address:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com/Research1.html">http://www.wthrman.com/Research1.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The article contains interactive spreadsheets which 
you can use if you have Microsoft Excel 97 or higher installed on your computer. 
You can click on the buttons and make the graph charts move. There are further 
explnatory guidelines on the charts themselves.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who don't have Excel, there are 
'snapshots' of particular rainfall scenarios referred to in the 
text.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>You may have to make some adjustments depending on 
the screen resolution you are using, or else just scroll the 
screen.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As far as I can see all the links are working..I 
have tested them from this end so you shouldn't have any problems. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I hope people find it interesting.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 06:36:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Jane,

If it was me, I would also voted Roger Hill as a person who could "for-see 
things from a distance".

I just realised I can't play NTSC tapes on our video player. Matthew and I 
bought some video tapes from the chaser picnic of Rocky's chases of the 
1990's himself - we'll have to watch them at an ASWA meeting.

Cheers.

Jimmy Deguara

At 09:43 PM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
>Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost 4
>hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know Roger's
>history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
>Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......
>
>If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
>details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
>Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere in
>Australia)
>Format - NTSC
>Very limited production run.
>
>Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by sending
>an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
>Jane
>
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
>Australian Sky & Weather
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 08:36:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Jimmy and others,

I'm checking into it and I'll let you know the cost of the PAL version later
today.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au



> Hi Jane,
>
> If it was me, I would also voted Roger Hill as a person who could "for-see
> things from a distance".
>
> I just realised I can't play NTSC tapes on our video player. Matthew and I
> bought some video tapes from the chaser picnic of Rocky's chases of the
> 1990's himself - we'll have to watch them at an ASWA meeting.
>
> Cheers.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:43 PM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> >Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
> >Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost 4
> >hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know Roger's
> >history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
> >Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......
> >
> >If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
> >details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
> >Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere in
> >Australia)
> >Format - NTSC
> >Very limited production run.
> >
> >Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by sending
> >an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Jane
> >
> >--------------------------------
> >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> >cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Australian Sky & Weather
> >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Steven Markham" <smarkham at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 09:20:30 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4024
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Dear Jane, If PAL versions of these videos are not available you can buy
a NTSC to PAL converter that will connect on the line from your TV to
video so you can play any NTSC video. You get these at either Tandy or
Dick Smith for around $50.00. They work great as they have a switch to
change between NTSC or PAL. Hope this helps.
Regards 
Steve Markham

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 8:37 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video

Hi Jimmy and others,

I'm checking into it and I'll let you know the cost of the PAL version
later
today.

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au



> Hi Jane,
>
> If it was me, I would also voted Roger Hill as a person who could
"for-see
> things from a distance".
>
> I just realised I can't play NTSC tapes on our video player. Matthew
and I
> bought some video tapes from the chaser picnic of Rocky's chases of
the
> 1990's himself - we'll have to watch them at an ASWA meeting.
>
> Cheers.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:43 PM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> >Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
> >Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost
4
> >hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know
Roger's
> >history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
> >Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......
> >
> >If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
> >details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
> >Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere
in
> >Australia)
> >Format - NTSC
> >Very limited production run.
> >
> >Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by
sending
> >an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Jane
> >
> >--------------------------------
> >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> >cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Australian Sky & Weather
> >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 09:33:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2655.55)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for OctoberHi everyone=3D20
>A while back, in July actually, I predicted (by plotting the orbits of =3D
>the moon)very dry conditions right through to November, to which David =3D
>Jones replied

>> Ken,
>...what is so special about the moon's behavior this year that
> leads you to believe that the August through November period should =3D
only get
> ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it within the =3D
driest
> 10% of historical observations, and not far from the driest such =3D
period on
> record?=3D20
> Given the shear desperation of many rural producers currently enduring
> drought in eastern Australia, I trust you have a very good scientific =3D
theory
> to back your profound and detailed predictions.
> Regards,
> David

>Given the continuing dry conditions, it may be said that my scientific =3D
>theory is indeed good and sound.  I suggest more proof is not needed.  =3D
>Would David care to respond?
>Ken Ring
>www.predictweather.com

Ken you really have got to be kidding? The blame for this drought lies very
firmly at the feet of El Nino. Almost every single severe Australian drought
is related to El Nino (take a lookie at
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/soirain.shtml) including 1994, 1982,
1977, 1972,.... 

The current drought is because the tropical convection which usually
dominates the Indonesian region has shifted to the central Pacific because
the central Pacific sea temperatures are unusually high (this is El Nino).
This shift has seen rainfall totals as much as 1000% of normal across
islands in the central pacific and less than 50% of normal across Australia,
and is the very reason why we in Australia have had front after front
deliver near dry changes. Put simply, there has been no tropical moisture
available for them to interact with.

Regards,

David


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.4]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: 7th of Feb storms in Vic.report makes it online eventually........
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 23:54:55 +0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Oct 2002 23:54:55.0581 (UTC) FILETIME=[9637D8D0:01C27AEF]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
hi all,
I've just uploaded a chase report/photographic log of an impressive 
backbuilding storm in Sth/W.Gippsland on the 7th of February this year, the 
radar is amazing!
the report/photographic log of it can be found at;
http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/020207backbuildingstorms.htm


cheers TM

Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils




_________________________________________________________________
Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband.  
http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp

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</x-flowed>
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 10:03:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied' into
the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia because
the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade wind
circulation in the area.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 9:33 AM
Subject: aus-wx: our "drought"


> >RE: aus-wx: Australian record temperature for OctoberHi everyone=3D20
> >A while back, in July actually, I predicted (by plotting the orbits of
=3D
> >the moon)very dry conditions right through to November, to which David
=3D
> >Jones replied
>
> >> Ken,
> >...what is so special about the moon's behavior this year that
> > leads you to believe that the August through November period should =3D
> only get
> > ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it within the =3D
> driest
> > 10% of historical observations, and not far from the driest such =3D
> period on
> > record?=3D20
> > Given the shear desperation of many rural producers currently enduring
> > drought in eastern Australia, I trust you have a very good scientific
=3D
> theory
> > to back your profound and detailed predictions.
> > Regards,
> > David
>
> >Given the continuing dry conditions, it may be said that my scientific
=3D
> >theory is indeed good and sound.  I suggest more proof is not needed.
=3D
> >Would David care to respond?
> >Ken Ring
> >www.predictweather.com
>
> Ken you really have got to be kidding? The blame for this drought lies
very
> firmly at the feet of El Nino. Almost every single severe Australian
drought
> is related to El Nino (take a lookie at
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/soirain.shtml) including 1994, 1982,
> 1977, 1972,....
>
> The current drought is because the tropical convection which usually
> dominates the Indonesian region has shifted to the central Pacific because
> the central Pacific sea temperatures are unusually high (this is El Nino).
> This shift has seen rainfall totals as much as 1000% of normal across
> islands in the central pacific and less than 50% of normal across
Australia,
> and is the very reason why we in Australia have had front after front
> deliver near dry changes. Put simply, there has been no tropical moisture
> available for them to interact with.
>
> Regards,
>
> David
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

XAntiVirus: This e-mail has been scanned for viruses via the Connexus Internet Service
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 11:07:13 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
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Hi Keith, Ken, David,

Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino relates to
a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of sitting
over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water West),
but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite finely
tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
commence the cycle.

So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less dense
warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow by
the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with the
summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell Ken,
if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon as
a motivator for El Nino".

John.
>snip

-----Original Message-----


From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied' into
the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia because
the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade wind
circulation in the area.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [203.28.69.145]
From: "David Sercombe" <daveserc at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 02:55:08 +0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 24 Oct 2002 02:55:08.0994 (UTC) FILETIME=[C383BA20:01C27B08]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi all,

The dust started coming through here at about 2pm yesterday, with the 
temperature rising from 26 to 32 in the space of 20 mins!. Baro got down to 
987hPa at 3pm. Quite an amazing afternoon of weather phenomena!

David Sercombe
Coffs Harbour, NE NSW



From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low barometer readings NSW
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 16:47:10 +1000

Dust has moved through the NE NSW region now, baro at 992hpa. I just went on
a dust storm chase, and when SDS has set in, it is an alright substitute!

Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW


_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 17:35:25 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


> Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".

Hi John and all
The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or maximum
declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't stand
the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
includes everyone on this list!!
The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
coincidence become theory..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Keith, Ken, David,
>
> Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino relates
to
> a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of sitting
> over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
West),
> but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
finely
> tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> commence the cycle.
>
> So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
dense
> warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow by
> the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with the
> summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> -----Original Message-----
>
>
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
into
> the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
because
> the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
wind
> circulation in the area.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 14:41:19 +1000
Organization: The Weather Co.
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Hi Ken,

Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?

I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of strong
winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that heat
has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
ahead of a cold front.

Andrew.


> Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the sky
during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the sun's
heat.

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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Just a thought
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 04:47:28 -0000
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It's not all that bad Jimmy. I live about 50-80m away from the railway line
here, and I quite enjoy it (Helps if your interested in trains and run to
the window or to the station when you hear one approaching)

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:03 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Just a thought


I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
hate to be living near a railway line....

Cheers

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.96.69]
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 14:50:57 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 24 Oct 2002 04:50:57.0708 (UTC) FILETIME=[F14556C0:01C27B18]
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<x-flowed>
Very interesting thoughts Ken

Karl






>From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 17:35:25 +1300
>
> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The 
>moon
>as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
>Hi John and all
>The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
>describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or 
>maximum
>declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
>predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
>one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't stand
>the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
>includes everyone on this list!!
>The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
>can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
>reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
>atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
>offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
>from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
>are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
>Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
>coincidence become theory..?
>regards
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino 
>relates
>to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of 
>sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
>West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
>finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
>dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow 
>by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with 
>the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell 
>Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The 
>moon
>as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
>into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
>because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
>wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 15:11:13 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken wrote:  
>Back in July on this forum I predicted the present drought .......

What date did the drought actually start? 

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky and Weather
www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Just a thought
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 05:26:47 -0000
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Nah, i can't tell the difference...although I'd most likely already be out
watching either of them if I heard it...LOL

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 9:08 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Just a thought


Sorry Paul,

It was my attemped humour. Can you tell the difference if a real tornado
came through or the usual freight train:)

Never mind.

Jimmy Deguara

At 04:47 AM 24/10/2002 +0000, you wrote:
>It's not all that bad Jimmy. I live about 50-80m away from the railway line
>here, and I quite enjoy it (Helps if your interested in trains and run to
>the window or to the station when you hear one approaching)
>
>PaulY
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
>Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:03 AM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Just a thought
>
>
>I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
>hate to be living near a railway line....
>
>Cheers
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Please note the change to my new e-mail
>address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 16:37:13 +1000
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Ken

I'll probably regret getting sucked into this thread, but here goes.

>Back in July on this forum I
>predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
>one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who
>can't stand
>the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
>includes everyone on this list!!

I'm not a professional meteorologist, and I have a huge respect for informed
amateur meteorologists to which the science owes its beginnings. Both the
professional and amateur scientists, however, get a bit dogmatic over issues
to do with scientific proof and evidence. I guess I'm in that camp, too. I'm
happy to accept that the moon is made of green cheese provided someone can
show me evidence.

You made a number of challenging statements today that begged for proof or
at least a substantiated explanation of cause and effect. If you're about
challenging accepted dogma, you need to be able to justify your own.

>Back in July on this forum I
>predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at.

I think back in July quite a few people were predicting drought. Jane has
asked "Which one?" which is a fair question. My additional questions are: 1.
What predictors did you use to predict "it"? and 2. Where is the proof that
"it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.

>The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
>can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an
>event. The
>reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
>atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
>offers less resistance to the sun's heat.

In another email, Andrew summarised the commonly accepted physics behind
this type of duststorm. It's not quite obvious to me why the full moon could
have anything to do with it. Can you please explain the connection, not
between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the lunar phase
and this specific duststorm.

What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major duststorms
in Australia over the past century?

Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the ground
during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the atmosphere sounds
quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
through, and how do we know this?

>Tropical cyclones also
>only form
>from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in
>that case we
>are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.

This raises many questions, but I have just one. Have you a simple table
correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases, say for the
past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form during the
one lunar quarter.

>Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
>coincidence become theory..?

In my books, never. One in a million chances happen all the time, and, as
Shaw said, "everything happens to everyone if you live long enough", or
words to that effect. But coincidence can lead to theory. If all (or even
most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can be
shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And as the
dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases -- are
precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
proves the coincidences.

I look forward to seeing it.

Regards

Laurier

Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News
http://www.australianweathernews.com



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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 16:45:49 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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" Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon is out of the sky
during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
atmosphere above the horizon which offers less resistance to the sun's
heat. Tropical cyclones also only form from full moon-last quarter, and
for the same reason, only in that case we are talking about the water
heating above 28deg instead of the land. Or is the Full moon + dust
storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does coincidence become
theory..?"

Ken,

Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is tons of
data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .

Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
the right position? Could you please, again, support your explanation
with some sound scientific data?

Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like to
see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident about
your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .

James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 2:35 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

> Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".

Hi John and all
The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
maximum
declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's
okay,
one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
includes everyone on this list!!
The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full
moon
can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event.
The
reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon
which
offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only
form
from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case
we
are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
coincidence become theory..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Keith, Ken, David,
>
> Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
to
> a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
West),
> but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the
warm
> water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
finely
> tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> commence the cycle.
>
> So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
dense
> warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced
somehow by
> the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> -----Original Message-----
>
>
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being
'emptied'
into
> the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
because
> the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the
trade
wind
> circulation in the area.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
>
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>

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From: "Craig Arthur" <craig_arthur at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 16:51:23 +1000
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Ken,

I am also reminded of a situation a couple of months back...
<snip>
On or around the 7th-9th watch out, NSW to QSLD, Wagga Wagga to Townsville.
Forget verification, just watch those riverbanks. If they flood it's called
lotsarain..
<snip>

There has not been a significant rainfall event (that would quite possibly
end this current drought) on or about the 7-9th of any month across eastern
Australia since that forecast was made in early August 2002. I believe that
could suggest a major flaw in the forecast method/theory used. Was it for
August or for a later month? There was no indication of a month given.

If the dust storm was related to the full moon, why not make a statement
ahead of time? That would certainly have given your theory a lot of
credibility.

I note though that the famed Melbourne dust storm of 2 Feb 1983 occurred
when the moon was a waning crescent (unless I am greatly mistaken) - a full
week later in the lunar cycle than Wednesday's storm.

Any comments?

Craig

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 14:35
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".

Hi John and all
The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
maximum
declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't stand
the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
includes everyone on this list!!
The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
coincidence become theory..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Keith, Ken, David,
>
> Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino relates
to
> a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of sitting
> over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
West),
> but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
finely
> tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> commence the cycle.
>
> So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
dense
> warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
by
> the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with the
> summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> -----Original Message-----
>
>
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
into
> the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
because
> the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
wind
> circulation in the area.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 17:03:19 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Just a thought
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<x-flowed>
I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would 
hate to be living near a railway line....

Cheers

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail 
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 17:26:02 +1000
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Theories aside, I must say that watching the full moon rise last night in
the haze of the dust storm at close to peak intensity (visibility down to
less than 400m horizontally), was one of the most breathtakingly surreal
atmospheric phenomena I have ever witnessed.  A definite once in a lifetime
event.

Regards,
John.

>snip
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:35 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".

Hi John and all
The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or maximum
declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't stand
the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
includes everyone on this list!!
The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
coincidence become theory..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Keith, Ken, David,
>
> Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino relates
to
> a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of sitting
> over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
West),
> but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
finely
> tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> commence the cycle.
>
> So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
dense
> warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow by
> the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with the
> summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell Ken,
> if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The moon
as
> a motivator for El Nino".
>
> John.
> >snip
>
> -----Original Message-----
>
>
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
into
> the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
because
> the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
wind
> circulation in the area.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
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Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 15:37:15 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 7th of Feb storms in Vic.report makes it online
	eventually........
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As usual, Tony, marvellous photography.
You blokes are still trying to make me homesick for Oz, aren't you!  
It's a conspiracy!

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 23:54:55 +0000
Subject: aus-wx: 7th of Feb storms in Vic.report makes it online 
eventually........

> hi all,
> I've just uploaded a chase report/photographic log of an impressive 
> backbuilding storm in Sth/W.Gippsland on the 7th of February this year,
> the 
> radar is amazing!
> the report/photographic log of it can be found at;
> http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils/020207backbuildingstorms.htm
> 
> 
> cheers TM
> 
> Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
> Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband.  
> http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp
> 
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 21:27:26 +1300
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Laurier, James, Jane and all
Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is healthy as long
as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in july was what
David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought conditions
right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast some
doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the moon's behavior
this year that leads you to believe that the August through November period
should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it
within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not sound like an
agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not mince
words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on record.  I hate
to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was, in
hindsight, clearly misplaced.

> (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
A drought does not have an official starting date.

> What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
Just the moon's position.

> 2. Where is the proof that
> "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
assumed when a result follows an event.


> Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is tons of
> data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I could
be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic to do his
own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.

> Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
> the right position?
No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar radiation.

>Could you please, again, support your explanation
> with some sound scientific data?
I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder. "Science"
is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods who say CO2
is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a scientist
knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old - Copernicus,
Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what I'm trying
to do.

> Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like to
> see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident about
> your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking for an easy
way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..

> Can you please explain the connection, not
> between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the lunar phase
> and this specific duststorm.
Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.

> What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major duststorms
> in Australia over the past century?
Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie records. I
have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The professionals
have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of them onto it.


> Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
ground
> during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the atmosphere sounds
> quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
> through, and how do we know this?
About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it and
point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day over a month.
You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the sun
shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and last
quarter.


> Have you a simple table
> correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases, say for the
> past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form during
the
> one lunar quarter.
Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last summer only
formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this forum at
the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.

> If all (or even
> most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can be
> shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
> certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And as
the
> dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases -- are
> precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
> proves the coincidences.
> I look forward to seeing it.
Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been doing
little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to do
the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The moon is still
ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric pressure,
when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A barometer
ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what happens in
the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea tide. Without
the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science. The
trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it can
be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.

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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 18:10:18 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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but did you get pictures?

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Theories aside, I must say that watching the full moon rise last night in
> the haze of the dust storm at close to peak intensity (visibility down to
> less than 400m horizontally), was one of the most breathtakingly surreal
> atmospheric phenomena I have ever witnessed.  A definite once in a
lifetime
> event.
>
> Regards,
> John.
>
> >snip
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:35 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
> Hi John and all
> The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
> describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
maximum
> declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
> predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
> one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
> the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
> includes everyone on this list!!
> The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
> can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
> reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
> atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
> offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
> to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
> West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
> finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
> dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
> into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
> because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
> wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 21:43:24 +1300
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Hi Andrew
I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I would
suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Ken,
>
> Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
>
> I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of strong
> winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that heat
> has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> ahead of a cold front.
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the sky
> during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the sun's
> heat.
>
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:07:37 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Just a thought
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Sorry Paul,

It was my attemped humour. Can you tell the difference if a real tornado 
came through or the usual freight train:)

Never mind.

Jimmy Deguara

At 04:47 AM 24/10/2002 +0000, you wrote:
>It's not all that bad Jimmy. I live about 50-80m away from the railway line
>here, and I quite enjoy it (Helps if your interested in trains and run to
>the window or to the station when you hear one approaching)
>
>PaulY
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara
>Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:03 AM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Just a thought
>
>
>I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
>hate to be living near a railway line....
>
>Cheers
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Please note the change to my new e-mail
>address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>
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>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Just a thought
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 18:39:00 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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jimmy, i would have thought you would have seen enough twister films now to
know that twisters make as much noise as a freight train but they dont sound
like one.
the amount of debris determines the amount of racket they make which unless
its demolishing a town is not a lot compared to the wind noise they generate
which is a sound all its own,  a bit like a high piched very loud sssssssss
that doesnt quite make it to a whistle, like a high wind blowing through a
heap of power lines only a couple of octaves higher in pitch, i tried to
simulate it once, the closest i got was to put 150psi from a 1\2" nozzle
across a loose coil of fencing wire.
most people probably compare them to a freight train as the closest analogy
to something that most people have heard that comes close to a defening
racket.

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 4:33 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Just a thought


> I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
> hate to be living near a railway line....
>
> Cheers
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Please note the change to my new e-mail
> address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 09:18:55 -0000
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Okay....enough of the flaming and stuff people, and lets get back to what
everyone on the list enjoys....watching weather...not argueing about it.
There's enough flame wars on Wx-Chase...you might wanna try there if you
want to start one.

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 1:17 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


Laurier
Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have thought a
humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
successfully predicted to last until November, based only on repeating moon
orbits and you could begin to get someone's attention. The trouble is,
whatever facts I come up with are never enough for some people. They go..oh
yeah, that, mustve been coincidence. Just COULDN'T be evidence of something
that might require that we change our minds about something or look outside
of the square, just couldn't be. Must be El Nino, or La Nina, or La Nada or
La la dee dah. Yeah, that explains it. Don't want any new age pesky moon
stuff; that's for GIRL'S.
A coincidence is just a high degree of correlation that thus far hasn't been
adequately explained. Well, isn't high correlation solid science?
> I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area
Nah, I'm talking of the date they formed, not the date they reached
Australia. Who gives a hoot where they end up? One always takes a few days
after forming to get down here. That's what I mean - a skeptic will look at
a later date in a different frame of reference and say sorry mate, no deal.
which is why I'm not posting data here. I've done it already and got flamed.
It just wastes my time.
I think the suggestion by Tony that we all note the moon phase when a
cyclone or dust storm forms is a good one. And you could add to that a big
earthquake, an eruption, a tornado or a nice big hailstorm.
Don't get me wrong folks, I thoroughly appreciate the discussion of this
thread. I am as much a scientist, by training, as anyone on this list, but I
know enough to know that concepts like proof, stats, criteria, logic, fact
etc are all up for grabs when a new idea appears. Unfortunately the
scientific method is flawed because it is really best suited to repeating
what has already been tested, and it is always protective of established
parameters. Also, the same scientist must do all the experiments, otherwise
you cannot eliminate operator bias, which is clearly an impossibility, which
means there cannot be a truly fair scientific experiment, only another
expresion of opinion.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:49 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Ken
>
> Thanks for your swift response.
>
> I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of
logic
> rather than science.
>
> "What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> assumed when a result follows an event."
> "There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
> constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I
could
> be accused of presenting a certain bias."
> "Easy enough to look up yourself."
> "...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> do it yourself."
> "I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
> of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
> "Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been doing
> little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to do
> the work..."
> "Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way of
> facts."
>
> Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully. I
> simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not being
> critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that it
> was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of data
> (facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss the
> whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these
circumstances,
> argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling our
> legs.
>
> Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit of
> "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
form
> from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the facts
to
> back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and April
> 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at that
> time, were:
>
> 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> Des, 5/3/02, 3
>
> Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates they
> reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If I'm
> wrong, please point out where.
>
> I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
> understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look for,
> and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.
>
> Laurier
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > Laurier, James, Jane and all
> > Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> > healthy as long
> > as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> > july was what
> > David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought
conditions
> > right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast some
> > doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> > moon's behavior
> > this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> > November period
> > should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it
> > within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
> > driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> > sound like an
> > agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not mince
> > words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> > record.  I hate
> > to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was,
in
> > hindsight, clearly misplaced.
> >
> > > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> > A drought does not have an official starting date.
> >
> > > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> > Just the moon's position.
> >
> > > 2. Where is the proof that
> > > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> > What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> > assumed when a result follows an event.
> >
> >
> > > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> > > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is tons
of
> > > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> > There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
> > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> > graph I could
> > be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> > to do his
> > own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
> >
> > > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
> > > the right position?
> > No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> > radiation.
> >
> > >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > > with some sound scientific data?
> > I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> > "Science"
> > is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> > who say CO2
> > is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a
scientist
> > knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old -
Copernicus,
> > Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
> > astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> > I'm trying
> > to do.
> >
> > > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> > > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like
to
> > > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident
about
> > > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> > > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> > I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> > for an easy
> > way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
> >
> > > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> > lunar phase
> > > and this specific duststorm.
> > Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
> >
> > > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> > duststorms
> > > in Australia over the past century?
> > Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie records.
I
> > have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> > professionals
> > have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> > them onto it.
> >
> >
> > > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
> > ground
> > > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> > atmosphere sounds
> > > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
> > > through, and how do we know this?
> > About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> > measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once
again,
> > do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it
and
> > point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> > over a month.
> > You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the
sun
> > shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and
last
> > quarter.
> >
> >
> > > Have you a simple table
> > > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> > say for the
> > > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form
during
> > the
> > > one lunar quarter.
> > Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> > summer only
> > formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this forum
at
> > the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> > record-keeping
> > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.
> >
> > > If all (or even
> > > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can
be
> > > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
> > > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And
as
> > the
> > > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases --
are
> > > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
> > > proves the coincidences.
> > > I look forward to seeing it.
> > Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
doing
> > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to
do
> > the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> > moon is still
> > ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric
pressure,
> > when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A barometer
> > ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> > sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what happens
in
> > the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> > tide. Without
> > the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science. The
> > trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it
can
> > be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:20:18 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Jimmy,

A PAL version will be available also. $82 including postage, handling &
GST.

Cheers,

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------





----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 6:36 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video


> Hi Jane,
>
> If it was me, I would also voted Roger Hill as a person who could
"for-see
> things from a distance".
>
> I just realised I can't play NTSC tapes on our video player. Matthew
and I
> bought some video tapes from the chaser picnic of Rocky's chases of
the
> 1990's himself - we'll have to watch them at an ASWA meeting.
>
> Cheers.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 09:43 PM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> >Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
> >Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost
4
> >hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know
Roger's
> >history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
> >Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......
> >
> >If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
> >details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
> >Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere
in
> >Australia)
> >Format - NTSC
> >Very limited production run.
> >
> >Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by
sending
> >an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Jane
> >
> >--------------------------------
> >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> >cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> >Australian Sky & Weather
> >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >  message.
>
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>
>
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>

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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:34:39 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 04:37 PM 24/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the ground
>during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the atmosphere sounds
>quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
>through, and how do we know this?

But my knowledge of tidal effects is that there is a tidal bulge on the 
side of an object (the Earth in this case) on the _opposite_ side of the 
unbalanced gravitational force (Moon)??  The atmosphere (and water) on the 
"near side" is pulled towards the Moon by gravity, obviously.  On the "far" 
side, the atmosphere is pulled away by the "gravity gradient" (if you 
imagine the Moon and Earth to be equal size, you can imagine this to be the 
effect of centrifugal force as the Earth revolves around the centre of mass 
of the Earth-Moon system).

Also, the Sun adds its bit to the tides, and it's above the horizon at the 
time.

I'm not discounting Ken's theory, but I don't accept the explanation based 
on my understanding of the physics.  But if Ken has a better explanation, 
I'm happy to stand corrected.

>This raises many questions, but I have just one. Have you a simple table
>correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases, say for the
>past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form during the
>one lunar quarter.

These sort of historical records would be good.  Actually, we could start 
documenting those from now on.  Why don't we all record the lunar phase 
whenever a TC is forming?

>In my books, never. One in a million chances happen all the time, and, as
>Shaw said, "everything happens to everyone if you live long enough", or
>words to that effect. But coincidence can lead to theory. If all (or even
>most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can be
>shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
>certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And as the
>dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases -- are
>precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
>proves the coincidences.

Me too.  I'll be most interested to see the correlations.  To me, it's 
reasonable to expect that the Moon has some effect on the atmosphere 
(through gravity), and therefore the weather.  However, as to how much 
effect, I have no idea, and would be interested to learn more.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:46:55 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Evening all,

I've got a number more images courtesy of the BoM to go up, but I
thought I'd share this amazing image with you......
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust02296n16-3z.jpg

more to come.......

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:50:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:27 PM 24/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
>constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I could
>be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic to do his
>own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.

It's the responsibility of _anyone_ who is trying to prove a point to come 
up with the facts.  That's you, that's the skeptics, and me, if I was to 
get serious about this debate.  And the facts need to be able to be 
verified by independent parties.


> > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
> > the right position?
>No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar radiation.

Disclaimer:  I am working from memory, so figures may not be 100% accurate.

I can understand this if the Earth is in eclipse, but if it's not, I don't 
understand how there'd be any significant drop in received solar 
radiation.  I will concede that at Full Moon, there is a very small 
increase in incoming radiation - i.e. that reflected off the Moon, but at 
16% (I think that's the Moon's albedo, from memory) of a 1/2 degree circle 
in the night sky, it's not very much.  In the visible spectrum, it's less 
than 1/100000th of the total incoming radiation (Moon is Mag -12, Sun is 
Man -25, and 5 magnitude points is 100x, if I recall correctly).  Doesn't 
rule out "upset the balance" theories, but does lower the odds of a 
significant radiation difference.  The seasonal solar radiation difference 
(from aphelion in July to perihelion in January) is over 1000x greater than 
this - and the average surface temperature of the Earth is still warmer at 
apogee!  (explanation:  it's because of unequally distribution of land 
masses in the hemispheres - Source: Science  at  NASA).

>Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last summer only
>formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this forum at
>the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
>of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.

Agreed.  The more people that keep records, the more this can be examined.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: No offence to anyone
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:57:37 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Reading all the different threads with regards to 
moon, sun etc</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm here to look and learn (and read) everyone's 
versions of what's going on. I feel a little disturbed that a bloke has a 
different opinion than the popular and he's being jumped on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have my opinions on some things with regards to 
mother natures signs etc, sometimes good, sometimes way out. Maybe I need to be 
jumped on too!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Can we try to make or see something positive from 
other(s) ideas without burying them first.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just my opinion. Ok, I'll bury myself 
now...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
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Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 19:58:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Just a thought
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<x-flowed>
At 05:26 AM 24/10/2002 +0000, you wrote:

>Nah, i can't tell the difference...although I'd most likely already be out
>watching either of them if I heard it...LOL

LOL, well that makes the decision easy. :-)

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 20:00:45 +1000
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Sorry for the short reply but just "WOW!!!"

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:46 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia


> Evening all,
>
> I've got a number more images courtesy of the BoM to go up, but I
> thought I'd share this amazing image with you......
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust02296n16-3z.jpg
>
> more to come.......
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 20:48:20 +1000
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Hi Jimmy,

Splash out and get a cheap video that plays back NTSC, most do these days.
The reason I say this is I find that converted tapes are slightly poorer
quality than even the native NTSC. Of course native PAL is better, but the
conversion is not lossless.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 8:36 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: "In Search of Supercells 2002" - the video


> Hi Jimmy and others,
>
> I'm checking into it and I'll let you know the cost of the PAL version
later
> today.
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>
>
> > Hi Jane,
> >
> > If it was me, I would also voted Roger Hill as a person who could
"for-see
> > things from a distance".
> >
> > I just realised I can't play NTSC tapes on our video player. Matthew and
I
> > bought some video tapes from the chaser picnic of Rocky's chases of the
> > 1990's himself - we'll have to watch them at an ASWA meeting.
> >
> > Cheers.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > At 09:43 PM 23/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> > >Australian Sky & Weather are proud to announce a significant video by
> > >Roger Hill who has provided a generous discount to purchase an almost 4
> > >hour masterpiece of storm video. For those of you who don't know
Roger's
> > >history, he has been voted as the 'Most Desired Accessory for a Chase
> > >Vehicle' in the USA - where Roger goes, severe weather follows.......
> > >
> > >If you are interested in obtaining a copy have a look here for more
> > >details  http://www.stormchasers.au.com/supercells2002.htm
> > >Price: $70AUD (including GST, postage & handling - delivered anywhere
in
> > >Australia)
> > >Format - NTSC
> > >Very limited production run.
> > >
> > >Join the pre-order list and have this video before Christmas by sending
> > >an email to cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > >
> > >Jane
> > >
> > >--------------------------------
> > >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > >cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > >
> > >Australian Sky & Weather
> > >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > >Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >--------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 20:49:02 +1000
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Ken

Thanks for your swift response.

I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of logic
rather than science.

"What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
assumed when a result follows an event."
"There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I could
be accused of presenting a certain bias."
"Easy enough to look up yourself."
"...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
do it yourself."
"I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
"Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been doing
little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to do
the work..."
"Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way of
facts."

Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully. I
simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not being
critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that it
was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of data
(facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss the
whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these circumstances,
argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling our
legs.

Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit of
"legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only form
from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the facts to
back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and April
2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at that
time, were:

03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
Chris, 3/2/02, 3
Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
Upia, 25/3/02, 2
Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
Des, 5/3/02, 3

Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates they
reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If I'm
wrong, please point out where.

I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look for,
and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> Laurier, James, Jane and all
> Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> healthy as long
> as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> july was what
> David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought conditions
> right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast some
> doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> moon's behavior
> this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> November period
> should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it
> within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
> driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> sound like an
> agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not mince
> words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> record.  I hate
> to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was, in
> hindsight, clearly misplaced.
>
> > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> A drought does not have an official starting date.
>
> > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> Just the moon's position.
>
> > 2. Where is the proof that
> > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> assumed when a result follows an event.
>
>
> > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is tons of
> > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
> constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> graph I could
> be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> to do his
> own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
>
> > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
> > the right position?
> No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> radiation.
>
> >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > with some sound scientific data?
> I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> "Science"
> is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> who say CO2
> is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a scientist
> knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old - Copernicus,
> Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
> astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> I'm trying
> to do.
>
> > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like to
> > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident about
> > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> for an easy
> way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
>
> > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> lunar phase
> > and this specific duststorm.
> Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
>
> > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> duststorms
> > in Australia over the past century?
> Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie records. I
> have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> professionals
> have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> them onto it.
>
>
> > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
> ground
> > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> atmosphere sounds
> > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
> > through, and how do we know this?
> About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it and
> point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> over a month.
> You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the sun
> shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and last
> quarter.
>
>
> > Have you a simple table
> > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> say for the
> > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form during
> the
> > one lunar quarter.
> Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> summer only
> formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this forum at
> the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> record-keeping
> of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.
>
> > If all (or even
> > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can be
> > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
> > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And as
> the
> > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases -- are
> > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
> > proves the coincidences.
> > I look forward to seeing it.
> Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been doing
> little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to do
> the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> moon is still
> ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric pressure,
> when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A barometer
> ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what happens in
> the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> tide. Without
> the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science. The
> trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it can
> be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
>
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From: "Chris G" <zosowx at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 21:27:28 +1000
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always amazing how you only turn up when you ahve amazingly managed to get
something right
----- Original Message -----
From: Ken Ring <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:35 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
> Hi John and all
> The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
> describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
maximum
> declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
> predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
> one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
> the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
> includes everyone on this list!!
> The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
> can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
> reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
> atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
> offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
> to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
> West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
> finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
> dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
> into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
> because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
> wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Chris G" <zosowx at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 21:29:22 +1000
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most likely heat
----- Original Message -----
From: Ken Ring <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 6:43 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Andrew
> I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
> found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
would
> suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Ken,
> >
> > Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
> >
> > I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of strong
> > winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that heat
> > has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> > associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> > ahead of a cold front.
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> >
> > > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> > to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the sky
> > during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> > atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the sun's
> > heat.
> >
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 22:36:27 +1000
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:(

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
Modistach
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 6:40 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


but did you get pictures?

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 4:56 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Theories aside, I must say that watching the full moon rise last night in
> the haze of the dust storm at close to peak intensity (visibility down to
> less than 400m horizontally), was one of the most breathtakingly surreal
> atmospheric phenomena I have ever witnessed.  A definite once in a
lifetime
> event.
>
> Regards,
> John.
>
> >snip
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:35 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
> Hi John and all
> The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
> describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
maximum
> declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
> predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
> one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
> the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
> includes everyone on this list!!
> The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
> can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
> reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
> atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
> offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
> to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
> West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
> finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
> dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
> into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
> because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
> wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
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> >
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From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vorticity southwest Vic.
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 23:02:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all. Seems to be some mid level vorticity just 
southwest of Mt Gambier and moving eastward would be nice for Vic if it became 
slow moving!? .. a wish forecast maybe.....also not a bad tropical storm over 
the northeast of the NT it also has unusual upper outflow features. regards 
Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 02:16:56 +1300
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Laurier
Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have thought a
humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
successfully predicted to last until November, based only on repeating moon
orbits and you could begin to get someone's attention. The trouble is,
whatever facts I come up with are never enough for some people. They go..oh
yeah, that, mustve been coincidence. Just COULDN'T be evidence of something
that might require that we change our minds about something or look outside
of the square, just couldn't be. Must be El Nino, or La Nina, or La Nada or
La la dee dah. Yeah, that explains it. Don't want any new age pesky moon
stuff; that's for GIRL'S.
A coincidence is just a high degree of correlation that thus far hasn't been
adequately explained. Well, isn't high correlation solid science?
> I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area
Nah, I'm talking of the date they formed, not the date they reached
Australia. Who gives a hoot where they end up? One always takes a few days
after forming to get down here. That's what I mean - a skeptic will look at
a later date in a different frame of reference and say sorry mate, no deal.
which is why I'm not posting data here. I've done it already and got flamed.
It just wastes my time.
I think the suggestion by Tony that we all note the moon phase when a
cyclone or dust storm forms is a good one. And you could add to that a big
earthquake, an eruption, a tornado or a nice big hailstorm.
Don't get me wrong folks, I thoroughly appreciate the discussion of this
thread. I am as much a scientist, by training, as anyone on this list, but I
know enough to know that concepts like proof, stats, criteria, logic, fact
etc are all up for grabs when a new idea appears. Unfortunately the
scientific method is flawed because it is really best suited to repeating
what has already been tested, and it is always protective of established
parameters. Also, the same scientist must do all the experiments, otherwise
you cannot eliminate operator bias, which is clearly an impossibility, which
means there cannot be a truly fair scientific experiment, only another
expresion of opinion.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:49 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Ken
>
> Thanks for your swift response.
>
> I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of
logic
> rather than science.
>
> "What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> assumed when a result follows an event."
> "There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
> constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I
could
> be accused of presenting a certain bias."
> "Easy enough to look up yourself."
> "...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> do it yourself."
> "I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
> of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
> "Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been doing
> little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to do
> the work..."
> "Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way of
> facts."
>
> Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully. I
> simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not being
> critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that it
> was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of data
> (facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss the
> whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these
circumstances,
> argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling our
> legs.
>
> Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit of
> "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
form
> from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the facts
to
> back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and April
> 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at that
> time, were:
>
> 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> Des, 5/3/02, 3
>
> Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates they
> reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If I'm
> wrong, please point out where.
>
> I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
> understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look for,
> and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.
>
> Laurier
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > Laurier, James, Jane and all
> > Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> > healthy as long
> > as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> > july was what
> > David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought
conditions
> > right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast some
> > doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> > moon's behavior
> > this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> > November period
> > should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place it
> > within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
> > driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> > sound like an
> > agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not mince
> > words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> > record.  I hate
> > to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was,
in
> > hindsight, clearly misplaced.
> >
> > > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> > A drought does not have an official starting date.
> >
> > > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> > Just the moon's position.
> >
> > > 2. Where is the proof that
> > > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> > What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> > assumed when a result follows an event.
> >
> >
> > > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> > > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is tons
of
> > > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> > There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can be
> > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> > graph I could
> > be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> > to do his
> > own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
> >
> > > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was in
> > > the right position?
> > No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> > radiation.
> >
> > >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > > with some sound scientific data?
> > I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> > "Science"
> > is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> > who say CO2
> > is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a
scientist
> > knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old -
Copernicus,
> > Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
> > astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> > I'm trying
> > to do.
> >
> > > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> > > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like
to
> > > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident
about
> > > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> > > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> > I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> > for an easy
> > way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
> >
> > > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> > lunar phase
> > > and this specific duststorm.
> > Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
> >
> > > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> > duststorms
> > > in Australia over the past century?
> > Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie records.
I
> > have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> > professionals
> > have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> > them onto it.
> >
> >
> > > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
> > ground
> > > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> > atmosphere sounds
> > > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it allow
> > > through, and how do we know this?
> > About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> > measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once
again,
> > do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it
and
> > point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> > over a month.
> > You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the
sun
> > shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and
last
> > quarter.
> >
> >
> > > Have you a simple table
> > > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> > say for the
> > > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form
during
> > the
> > > one lunar quarter.
> > Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> > summer only
> > formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this forum
at
> > the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> > record-keeping
> > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.
> >
> > > If all (or even
> > > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can
be
> > > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it should
> > > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And
as
> > the
> > > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases --
are
> > > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table that
> > > proves the coincidences.
> > > I look forward to seeing it.
> > Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
doing
> > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to
do
> > the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> > moon is still
> > ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric
pressure,
> > when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A barometer
> > ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> > sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what happens
in
> > the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> > tide. Without
> > the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science. The
> > trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it
can
> > be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
> >
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> >
>
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Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 23:26:25 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vorticity southwest Vic.
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<x-flowed>
Hi Clyve,

Yes it is interesting!!! Are there any predictors for rain by the end of 
the month. Ken Ring you are suggesting so  - drought until November - 
inclusive or it will begin raining November?

Jimmy Deguara

At 11:02 PM 24/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all. Seems to be some mid level vorticity just southwest of Mt Gambier 
>and moving eastward would be nice for Vic if it became slow moving!? .. a 
>wish forecast maybe.....also not a bad tropical storm over the northeast 
>of the NT it also has unusual upper outflow features. regards Clyve Herbert.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 23:27:03 +0930
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the trick is to keep the pot at a good simmer without becoming distracted
and letting it boil over.

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 11:03 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> At least there's some life in the ol' aus-wx discussion list. I am
enjoying
> this debate.
> Keep it up :)
>
> dann
>
> PS--I love (and have always loved) your brief and inspired musings Clyve.
> They make me constantly re-examine my weather enriching the whole
wonderful
> world of the atmosphere as i cast my eye over. Thanks for your constant
and
> excellent contributions.
>
> dann
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:18 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Okay....enough of the flaming and stuff people, and lets get back to
what
> > everyone on the list enjoys....watching weather...not argueing about it.
> > There's enough flame wars on Wx-Chase...you might wanna try there if you
> > want to start one.
> >
> > PaulY
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 1:17 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > Laurier
> > Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have
thought
> a
> > humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
> > successfully predicted to last until November, based only on repeating
> moon
> > orbits and you could begin to get someone's attention. The trouble is,
> > whatever facts I come up with are never enough for some people. They
> go..oh
> > yeah, that, mustve been coincidence. Just COULDN'T be evidence of
> something
> > that might require that we change our minds about something or look
> outside
> > of the square, just couldn't be. Must be El Nino, or La Nina, or La Nada
> or
> > La la dee dah. Yeah, that explains it. Don't want any new age pesky moon
> > stuff; that's for GIRL'S.
> > A coincidence is just a high degree of correlation that thus far hasn't
> been
> > adequately explained. Well, isn't high correlation solid science?
> > > I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area
> > Nah, I'm talking of the date they formed, not the date they reached
> > Australia. Who gives a hoot where they end up? One always takes a few
days
> > after forming to get down here. That's what I mean - a skeptic will look
> at
> > a later date in a different frame of reference and say sorry mate, no
> deal.
> > which is why I'm not posting data here. I've done it already and got
> flamed.
> > It just wastes my time.
> > I think the suggestion by Tony that we all note the moon phase when a
> > cyclone or dust storm forms is a good one. And you could add to that a
big
> > earthquake, an eruption, a tornado or a nice big hailstorm.
> > Don't get me wrong folks, I thoroughly appreciate the discussion of this
> > thread. I am as much a scientist, by training, as anyone on this list,
but
> I
> > know enough to know that concepts like proof, stats, criteria, logic,
fact
> > etc are all up for grabs when a new idea appears. Unfortunately the
> > scientific method is flawed because it is really best suited to
repeating
> > what has already been tested, and it is always protective of established
> > parameters. Also, the same scientist must do all the experiments,
> otherwise
> > you cannot eliminate operator bias, which is clearly an impossibility,
> which
> > means there cannot be a truly fair scientific experiment, only another
> > expresion of opinion.
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:49 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > Ken
> > >
> > > Thanks for your swift response.
> > >
> > > I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of
> > logic
> > > rather than science.
> > >
> > > "What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality
is
> > > assumed when a result follows an event."
> > > "There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can
> be
> > > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I
> > could
> > > be accused of presenting a certain bias."
> > > "Easy enough to look up yourself."
> > > "...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> > > do it yourself."
> > > "I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
> > > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
> > > "Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
> doing
> > > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than
to
> do
> > > the work..."
> > > "Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way
> of
> > > facts."
> > >
> > > Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully.
I
> > > simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not
> being
> > > critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that
> it
> > > was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of
> data
> > > (facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss
> the
> > > whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these
> > circumstances,
> > > argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling
our
> > > legs.
> > >
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick
bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
> > form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
> facts
> > to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can
be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> > >
> > > I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
> > > understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look
> for,
> > > and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.
> > >
> > > Laurier
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > > > Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> > > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Laurier, James, Jane and all
> > > > Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> > > > healthy as long
> > > > as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> > > > july was what
> > > > David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought
> > conditions
> > > > right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast
> some
> > > > doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> > > > moon's behavior
> > > > this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> > > > November period
> > > > should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place
> it
> > > > within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from
the
> > > > driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> > > > sound like an
> > > > agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not
> mince
> > > > words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> > > > record.  I hate
> > > > to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response
was,
> > in
> > > > hindsight, clearly misplaced.
> > > >
> > > > > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> > > > A drought does not have an official starting date.
> > > >
> > > > > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> > > > Just the moon's position.
> > > >
> > > > > 2. Where is the proof that
> > > > > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> > > > What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality
> is
> > > > assumed when a result follows an event.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is
a
> > > > > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is
> tons
> > of
> > > > > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> > > > There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph
can
> be
> > > > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> > > > graph I could
> > > > be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> > > > to do his
> > > > own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
> > > >
> > > > > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > > > > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it
was
> in
> > > > > the right position?
> > > > No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> > > > radiation.
> > > >
> > > > >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > > > > with some sound scientific data?
> > > > I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> > > > "Science"
> > > > is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> > > > who say CO2
> > > > is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a
> > scientist
> > > > knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old -
> > Copernicus,
> > > > Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were
self-confessed
> > > > astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> > > > I'm trying
> > > > to do.
> > > >
> > > > > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more
when
> > > > > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply
like
> > to
> > > > > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident
> > about
> > > > > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just
unlikely),
> > > > > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > > > > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> > > > I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> > > > for an easy
> > > > way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
> > > >
> > > > > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > > > > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> > > > lunar phase
> > > > > and this specific duststorm.
> > > > Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
> > > >
> > > > > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> > > > duststorms
> > > > > in Australia over the past century?
> > > > Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie
> records.
> > I
> > > > have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> > > > professionals
> > > > have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> > > > them onto it.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on
the
> > > > ground
> > > > > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> > > > atmosphere sounds
> > > > > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it
> allow
> > > > > through, and how do we know this?
> > > > About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> > > > measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once
> > again,
> > > > do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over
it
> > and
> > > > point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> > > > over a month.
> > > > You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky,
the
> > sun
> > > > shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon
and
> > last
> > > > quarter.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Have you a simple table
> > > > > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> > > > say for the
> > > > > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form
> > during
> > > > the
> > > > > one lunar quarter.
> > > > Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> > > > summer only
> > > > formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this
> forum
> > at
> > > > the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> > > > record-keeping
> > > > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I
claim.
> > > >
> > > > > If all (or even
> > > > > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones
can
> > be
> > > > > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it
> should
> > > > > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence.
And
> > as
> > > > the
> > > > > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon
phases --
> > are
> > > > > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table
> that
> > > > > proves the coincidences.
> > > > > I look forward to seeing it.
> > > > Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
> > doing
> > > > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than
> to
> > do
> > > > the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> > > > moon is still
> > > > ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric
> > pressure,
> > > > when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A
> barometer
> > > > ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> > > > sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what
> happens
> > in
> > > > the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> > > > tide. Without
> > > > the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science.
> The
> > > > trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but
it
> > can
> > > > be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >
> >
> >
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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vorticity southwest Vic.
Date: Thu, 24 Oct 2002 23:32:26 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


he may mean up to at least november, with no garantee its going to rain
after that.

ragards
richard
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:56 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vorticity southwest Vic.


> Hi Clyve,
>
> Yes it is interesting!!! Are there any predictors for rain by the end of
> the month. Ken Ring you are suggesting so  - drought until November -
> inclusive or it will begin raining November?
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 11:02 PM 24/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> >Hi all. Seems to be some mid level vorticity just southwest of Mt Gambier
> >and moving eastward would be nice for Vic if it became slow moving!? .. a
> >wish forecast maybe.....also not a bad tropical storm over the northeast
> >of the NT it also has unusual upper outflow features. regards Clyve
Herbert.
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 00:41:57 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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I'm sorry but you have not answered my question. Can you provide
statistically undeniable evidence for you claims? I doubt it! If you
cannot then how do you expect anyone to believe you?

Your "theories" are so out of left field as to be unacceptable without
proper justification . . . prove it! I'd like to see it- but I bet you
respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts. . . .

James

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 6:43 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

Hi Andrew
I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
would
suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Ken,
>
> Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
>
> I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of
strong
> winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that
heat
> has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> ahead of a cold front.
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the
sky
> during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the
sun's
> heat.
>
>
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>  message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 00:24:57 +0930
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Ohh Please.

Who made you the science "guru" all of a sudden? So the guys theories may
not appeal to your scientific mind, but it does not mean that you simply and
summarily dismiss his responses.

I am sure that many "scientists" of the past faced such arrogance, elitism
and scepticism before their theories were accepted. E.g. Galileo is one such
person....

So stop attacking the person, open your mind to new possibilities and loose
the elitist attitude.

Paul.
----- Original Message -----
From: James Holbeach <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 12:11 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm sorry but you have not answered my question. Can you provide
> statistically undeniable evidence for you claims? I doubt it! If you
> cannot then how do you expect anyone to believe you?
>
> Your "theories" are so out of left field as to be unacceptable without
> proper justification . . . prove it! I'd like to see it- but I bet you
> respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts. . . .
>
> James
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 6:43 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> Hi Andrew
> I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
> found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
> would
> suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Ken,
> >
> > Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
> >
> > I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of
> strong
> > winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that
> heat
> > has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> > associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> > ahead of a cold front.
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> >
> > > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> > to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the
> sky
> > during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> > atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the
> sun's
> > heat.
> >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.96.69]
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 02:52:19 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 24 Oct 2002 16:52:19.0581 (UTC) FILETIME=[B7470AD0:01C27B7D]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>


I tend to agree with Paul,

Why is everyone talking him down as if he is a piece of crap, its not fair 
and very very closed minded.  His thoughts are interesting, very infact.  I 
dont know whether for sure his predictions are correct, but give this person 
a fair go.  We all have to hear eachothers thoughts on many issues and we 
accept them to a degree.

I will keeping close track on Kens Predictions, why not start making notes 
on how well he predicts, test his model out your own way, you dig up the 
facts to proove he is incorrect then we will believe you.

Freedom of speech and ideas :)

Just my thoughts, you can flame and burn me to bits really, I dont care but 
my Goodness I am shocked to think that one person can be brutally talked 
down like this.  I am sure Ken is an amatuer just like the rest of us here, 
with a few exceptions, so give him a fair go I say.

These ideas may be far fetched to you, but what happens if he is correct?

Karl :)




>From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 00:24:57 +0930
>
>Ohh Please.
>
>Who made you the science "guru" all of a sudden? So the guys theories may
>not appeal to your scientific mind, but it does not mean that you simply 
>and
>summarily dismiss his responses.
>
>I am sure that many "scientists" of the past faced such arrogance, elitism
>and scepticism before their theories were accepted. E.g. Galileo is one 
>such
>person....
>
>So stop attacking the person, open your mind to new possibilities and loose
>the elitist attitude.
>
>Paul.
>----- Original Message -----
>From: James Holbeach <james at trapdoor.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 12:11 AM
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > I'm sorry but you have not answered my question. Can you provide
> > statistically undeniable evidence for you claims? I doubt it! If you
> > cannot then how do you expect anyone to believe you?
> >
> > Your "theories" are so out of left field as to be unacceptable without
> > proper justification . . . prove it! I'd like to see it- but I bet you
> > respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts. . . .
> >
> > James
> >
> > James Holbeach
> > --------------------------------
> > Trapdoor Ski Club
> > Mt. Hotham, Australia
> > ph. 0417 553 757
> > http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 6:43 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> > Hi Andrew
> > I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
> > found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
> > would
> > suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > Hi Ken,
> > >
> > > Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
> > >
> > > I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of
> > strong
> > > winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that
> > heat
> > > has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> > > associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> > > ahead of a cold front.
> > >
> > > Andrew.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> > > to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the
> > sky
> > > during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> > > atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the
> > sun's
> > > heat.
> > >
> > >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >  message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >  message.
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</x-flowed>
From: "Craig Arthur" <carthur at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 04:46:51 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken,

May I venture to make a couple of points.

1. In early August 2002, you made a comment to this list about a significant
rainfall event from Townsville to Wagga Wagga 'on or about the 7th - 9th',
an event that would cause floods even! In the ensuing months, there has not
been a significant rainfall event 'on or about the 7th - 9th' of any month.
(I don't know which month the prediction was for, as there was no month
given)

2. Just this past few days, there was the quote 'dust storms always occur
with the full moon'. I would like it noted that the dust storm of 8 February
1983 that swept through Melbourne occurred when the moon had just entered
the last quarter of it's phase.

Now, kudos to you for predicting the drought (as much as one could predict a
drought when it was already well established) - or more so Sydney's dry
spell - but I would say that my first point shows a pretty big failure of
the moon theory.

My second point shows that it *may just be* a coincidence that the dust
storm of 23 October 2002 occurred on the full moon. It may also be that the
theory works well and the Melbourne dust storm was an anomoly.

Regards
Craig Arthur

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Laurier
> Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have thought
a
> humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
> successfully predicted to last until November, based only on repeating
moon
> orbits and you could begin to get someone's attention. The trouble is,
> whatever facts I come up with are never enough for some people. They
go..oh
> yeah, that, mustve been coincidence. Just COULDN'T be evidence of
something
> that might require that we change our minds about something or look
outside
> of the square, just couldn't be. Must be El Nino, or La Nina, or La Nada
or
> La la dee dah. Yeah, that explains it. Don't want any new age pesky moon
> stuff; that's for GIRL'S.
> A coincidence is just a high degree of correlation that thus far hasn't
been
> adequately explained. Well, isn't high correlation solid science?
> > I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area
> Nah, I'm talking of the date they formed, not the date they reached
> Australia. Who gives a hoot where they end up? One always takes a few days
> after forming to get down here. That's what I mean - a skeptic will look
at
> a later date in a different frame of reference and say sorry mate, no
deal.
> which is why I'm not posting data here. I've done it already and got
flamed.
> It just wastes my time.
> I think the suggestion by Tony that we all note the moon phase when a
> cyclone or dust storm forms is a good one. And you could add to that a big
> earthquake, an eruption, a tornado or a nice big hailstorm.
> Don't get me wrong folks, I thoroughly appreciate the discussion of this
> thread. I am as much a scientist, by training, as anyone on this list, but
I
> know enough to know that concepts like proof, stats, criteria, logic, fact
> etc are all up for grabs when a new idea appears. Unfortunately the
> scientific method is flawed because it is really best suited to repeating
> what has already been tested, and it is always protective of established
> parameters. Also, the same scientist must do all the experiments,
otherwise
> you cannot eliminate operator bias, which is clearly an impossibility,
which
> means there cannot be a truly fair scientific experiment, only another
> expresion of opinion.
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:49 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Ken
> >
> > Thanks for your swift response.
> >
> > I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of
> logic
> > rather than science.
> >
> > "What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> > assumed when a result follows an event."
> > "There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can
be
> > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I
> could
> > be accused of presenting a certain bias."
> > "Easy enough to look up yourself."
> > "...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> > do it yourself."
> > "I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
> > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
> > "Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
doing
> > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to
do
> > the work..."
> > "Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way
of
> > facts."
> >
> > Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully. I
> > simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not
being
> > critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that
it
> > was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of
data
> > (facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss
the
> > whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these
> circumstances,
> > argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling our
> > legs.
> >
> > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit
of
> > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
> form
> > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
facts
> to
> > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and
came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
April
> > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at
that
> > time, were:
> >
> > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> >
> > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
they
> > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If
I'm
> > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
> > understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look
for,
> > and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.
> >
> > Laurier
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > > Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > Laurier, James, Jane and all
> > > Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> > > healthy as long
> > > as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> > > july was what
> > > David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought
> conditions
> > > right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast
some
> > > doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> > > moon's behavior
> > > this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> > > November period
> > > should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place
it
> > > within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
> > > driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> > > sound like an
> > > agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not
mince
> > > words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> > > record.  I hate
> > > to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was,
> in
> > > hindsight, clearly misplaced.
> > >
> > > > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> > > A drought does not have an official starting date.
> > >
> > > > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> > > Just the moon's position.
> > >
> > > > 2. Where is the proof that
> > > > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> > > What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality
is
> > > assumed when a result follows an event.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> > > > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is
tons
> of
> > > > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> > > There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can
be
> > > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> > > graph I could
> > > be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> > > to do his
> > > own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
> > >
> > > > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > > > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was
in
> > > > the right position?
> > > No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> > > radiation.
> > >
> > > >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > > > with some sound scientific data?
> > > I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> > > "Science"
> > > is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> > > who say CO2
> > > is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a
> scientist
> > > knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old -
> Copernicus,
> > > Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
> > > astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> > > I'm trying
> > > to do.
> > >
> > > > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> > > > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like
> to
> > > > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident
> about
> > > > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> > > > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > > > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> > > I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> > > for an easy
> > > way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
> > >
> > > > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > > > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> > > lunar phase
> > > > and this specific duststorm.
> > > Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
> > >
> > > > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> > > duststorms
> > > > in Australia over the past century?
> > > Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie
records.
> I
> > > have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> > > professionals
> > > have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> > > them onto it.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
> > > ground
> > > > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> > > atmosphere sounds
> > > > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it
allow
> > > > through, and how do we know this?
> > > About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> > > measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once
> again,
> > > do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it
> and
> > > point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> > > over a month.
> > > You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the
> sun
> > > shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and
> last
> > > quarter.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Have you a simple table
> > > > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> > > say for the
> > > > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form
> during
> > > the
> > > > one lunar quarter.
> > > Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> > > summer only
> > > formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this
forum
> at
> > > the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> > > record-keeping
> > > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.
> > >
> > > > If all (or even
> > > > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can
> be
> > > > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it
should
> > > > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And
> as
> > > the
> > > > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases --
> are
> > > > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table
that
> > > > proves the coincidences.
> > > > I look forward to seeing it.
> > > Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
> doing
> > > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than
to
> do
> > > the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> > > moon is still
> > > ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric
> pressure,
> > > when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A
barometer
> > > ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> > > sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what
happens
> in
> > > the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> > > tide. Without
> > > the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science.
The
> > > trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it
> can
> > > be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
> > >
> > >
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> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
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> > >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 09:20:40 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


James
> I'd like to see it- but I bet you
> respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts..
Well, you CAN see it. On my website go to my Freemonth page. Scroll down and
you'll find Australia weather for the whole month ahead, all states. I do
this month in and month out. You'll see the whole of November. If you want
October, well, its gone now, but the Healthy Options magazine prints it
every month and that's on all book stands throughout Australia. I am told I
am very accurate and that's good enough for me. I'm told that for many
people my page alone sells the magazine. THESE ARE HARD FACTS. In fact, to
my knowledge, no one else is putting out longrange forecasts for Australia a
month ahead. Not any of the professionals OR amateurs. I am ALSO doing it
for NZ and the UK, on the same page. I know of no one else doing it for any
single ONE of those countries, let alone all three. And I'm not even a
meteorologist. So where's THEIR work? Apart from telling us what will happen
tomorrow, which we all know anyway, as far as a week out at most goes, they
seem to be very busy sitting on their hands. And where's YOUR stuff, James?
I'm out there. I'm doing it mate.
Hey -  I'm thoroughly enjoying this opportunity to present my case. Thanks
everybody.
Ken
www.predictweather.com


----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:41 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm sorry but you have not answered my question. Can you provide
> statistically undeniable evidence for you claims? I doubt it! If you
> cannot then how do you expect anyone to believe you?
>
> Your "theories" are so out of left field as to be unacceptable without
> proper justification . . . prove it! I'd like to see it- but I bet you
> respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts. . . .
>
> James
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 6:43 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> Hi Andrew
> I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale lifting
> found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
> would
> suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Ken,
> >
> > Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
> >
> > I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of
> strong
> > winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that
> heat
> > has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> > associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> > ahead of a cold front.
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> >
> > > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the ground
> > to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the
> sky
> > during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> > atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the
> sun's
> > heat.
> >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 09:42:36 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Tony wrote
> But my knowledge of tidal effects is that there is a tidal bulge on the
> side of an object (the Earth in this case) on the _opposite_ side of the
> unbalanced gravitational force (Moon)??  The atmosphere (and water) on the
> "near side" is pulled towards the Moon by gravity, obviously.  On the
"far"
> side, the atmosphere is pulled away by the "gravity gradient" (if you
> imagine the Moon and Earth to be equal size, you can imagine this to be
the
> effect of centrifugal force as the Earth revolves around the centre of
mass
> of the Earth-Moon system).
Not centrifugal force, because that would operate all around the
circumference, not just at one point. Unfortunately for those who want
simple explanations, normal physics doesn't explain it. Only astrological
physics, explained initially by Sir Isaac Newton, hacks it, but not many
understand it nowadays. Newton's work was dressed up for the scientific
community by Sir George Darwin, Charles's dad, and being an influential
figure everyone turned to him. But he got it wrong. When planets are at
certain angles to a location on earth they exert a pull because they nullify
earth's gravity. It's kind of like a narrow, sometimes momentary, special
force "corridor". The moon gets itself into these angles and only when it
does do we get tides, earthquakes, eruptions, and ..da da..heavy rain. The
sun only evaporates water and applies heat to the ground. It cannot cause
rain and it cannot cause weather to change at night, as we all know it does.

> To me, it's
> reasonable to expect that the Moon has some effect on the atmosphere
> (through gravity), and therefore the weather..
Thanks for your openmindness, Tony
Ken
www.predictweather.com


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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 07:01:07 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've finally made it! 300mm for the year. All I 
need now is 340mm in the next two months and I'll be right back on the average 
:-)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Point 8mm here over night but enough to get me to 
the magical mark.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Craig Arthur" <carthur at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Just a thought
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 07:34:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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I've also heard tornadoes described as sounding like jet aircraft. Houses
are pretty cheap in Arncliffe I think! ;)

Craig

Jimmy Deguara wrote:


I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
hate to be living near a railway line....

Cheers

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Please note the change to my new e-mail
address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 07:58:16 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Just a thought
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi Craig,

Love your sense of humour. Good stuff.

Jimmy Deguara

At 07:34 AM 25/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>I've also heard tornadoes described as sounding like jet aircraft. Houses
>are pretty cheap in Arncliffe I think! ;)
>
>Craig
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
>
>I was thinking just now, if a tornado sounds like a freight train, I would
>hate to be living near a railway line....
>
>Cheers
>
>Jimmy Deguara
>
>-----------------------------------------
>Please note the change to my new e-mail
>address:    jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Storm Chasing Tours - Thunderbolt Tours - http://www.thunderbolttours.com
>-----------------------------------------
>Jimmy Deguara
>Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
>from
>Schofields, Sydney
>NSW Australia
>
>e-mail:jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com
>
>Web Page with Michael Bath
>
>Australian Severe Weather Home Page
>http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
>Member of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>
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</x-flowed>
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 09:10:15 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Ohh Please.

"Who made you the science "guru" all of a sudden? So the guys theories
may
not appeal to your scientific mind, but it does not mean that you simply
and
summarily dismiss his responses."

I'm not dismissing them, I am simply asking for some scientific
justification. That is all.

I'm sorry if it has appeared that I am personally attacking you ken, I
have not meant to. I guess I do not like to see a theory, such as yours,
go by without some questioning.

You claim that your "told" you are very accurate, to me is not really
good enough. I'm sure that clairvoyants are told the same thing- The
thing with this is that, while we cannot easily test whether a certain
person met the love of their life, we can easily test whether your
predictions are accurate! So lets do it!

Ken could you please send me a years worth of your predictions. Last
year, perhaps, and I'll do a simple analysis for you. You never know, it
may well prove me wrong! :)

James 

----- Original Message -----
From: James Holbeach <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 12:11 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm sorry but you have not answered my question. Can you provide
> statistically undeniable evidence for you claims? I doubt it! If you
> cannot then how do you expect anyone to believe you?
>
> Your "theories" are so out of left field as to be unacceptable without
> proper justification . . . prove it! I'd like to see it- but I bet you
> respond with more rhetoric and no hard facts. . . .
>
> James
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, 24 October 2002 6:43 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> Hi Andrew
> I think you might have answered your own question..."broad-scale
lifting
> found ahead of a cold front"..so..what is it that does the lifting? I
> would
> suggest that only heat or gravitational pull has the power to lift.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 5:41 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Ken,
> >
> > Can you explain your view on what heat has to do with a dust storm?
> >
> > I am of the opinion that the main triggers are the combination of
> strong
> > winds and broad-scale lifting found ahead of a cold front, and that
> heat
> > has little to do with it compared to these two. Of course heat is
> > associated with dust storms because it is inherently relatively warm
> > ahead of a cold front.
> >
> > Andrew.
> >
> >
> > > Only during full moon can the sun generate enough heat on the
ground
> > to cause such an event. The reason is that the moon > is out of the
> sky
> > during the day and taking the atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted
> > atmosphere above the horizon which > offers less resistance to the
> sun's
> > heat.
> >
> >
>
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: please spare us Ken..
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 09:29:27 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2655.55)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>Laurier
>Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have thought
a
>humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
>successfully predicted to last until November,

So let me get this right Ken... You sucesfully predicted in July a drought
which had commenced 4 months earlier in April, and somehow this is proof of
your theories. And then... after a dust storm you tell us that you predicted
it also on the basis of the moon. That is about as impressive as predicting
lotto numbers the day after they are drawn and just a useful. 

Can I suggest at this stage that we start a new email list for ken and those
interested in his views and let the rest of us get on with weather matters
and proven science on aussie weather. 

Regards,

David


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From: "Damian" <damoreds at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: cold night smokey morning
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 10:12:49 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080>I recorded a cool 8.7 
degrees here at my place last night between Chatswood West &amp; North Ryde in 
Sydney's Northern Suburbs. But awoke this morning to a 'very' smokey air &amp; 
can smell the smoke inside the house!</FONT></STRONG></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold night smokey morning
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 10:27:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yes it's getting up everyone's nose I think. 
Stopped me going on my usual 4km+ &nbsp;walk. A bit chilly here last night, but 
not that cold! This morning's sounding </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/66-67sydneymetro_index.htm">http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/66-67sydneymetro_index.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>explains the smoke's persistence.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=damoreds at optusnet.com.au 
  href="mailto:damoreds at optusnet.com.au">Damian</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 25, 2002 10:12 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: cold night smokey 
  morning</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080>I recorded a cool 8.7 
  degrees here at my place last night between Chatswood West &amp; North Ryde in 
  Sydney's Northern Suburbs. But awoke this morning to a 'very' smokey air &amp; 
  can smell the smoke inside the 
house!</FONT></STRONG></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 10:33:30 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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> Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit of
> "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the facts to
> back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and April
> 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at that
> time, were:
> 
> 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> Des, 5/3/02, 3
> 
> Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates they
> reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If I'm
> wrong, please point out where.
 
If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/

and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html

Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the 
satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
moving west of 90E).

I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a 
frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
significant difference between that distribution and the even
distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
formation.

Blair
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From: "macdonald" <sclmacdonald at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 10:36:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
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<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
<DIV>I have some weather related questions for a Project i am working on with my 
team members. I have to complete it this weekend.... just need some good 
links.&nbsp; I have a fair idea.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>WHy does the inside of the car continue to heat up when the outside 
temperature outside remains constant?</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Convection process and a diagram ( need a good link)</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>thankyou in advance,</DIV>
<DIV>It is very dry here in the Gold Coast hinterland. I seem to have problems 
with java, so i can't update my page. So far we've had 498mm for the year, which 
is very dry for here. I think we'll be lucky to 700mm this year. Hinze dam is 
39.91%.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Cheers</DIV>
<DIV>Sam</DIV>
<DIV>Tallai/Guyra Weather</DIV>
<DIV><A 
href="http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html">http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: What is the best source of water vapour images?
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 10:45:52 +1000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


My usual source of water vapour satpix at https://207.133.112.37/sat/aust/
has become very eratic over the past few weeks. The only other source with
specific Australian images that I'm aware of is CIMSS, and the useful
archive of CIMSS images at
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/archdat/pacific/winds/southern_hemisphere/,
but these have upper wind overlays. There are a fair few global images
available, but they lack detail in our region.

Does anyone know of any other sources?

Thanks

Laurier



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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: please spare us Ken..
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 14:38:15 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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> So let me get this right Ken... You sucesfully predicted in July a drought
> which had commenced 4 months earlier in April, and somehow this is proof
of
> your theories. And then... after a dust storm you tell us that you
predicted
> it also on the basis of the moon.
No, David, I didn't say that. I've already posted up your response around
that time, so everyone can see what I said and what you said. I told you
there would be only around 100mm or rain for Sydney from July to mid
November and you scoffed at that suggestion. Stick to the facts, please. You
were wrong and are not big enough to admit it. All I predicted was dry
conditions right till November. Also I never said I predicted the dust
storm, only pointed out the coincidence of it forming on the day of the full
moon. I then suggested that the full moon was a causal factor in applying
extra heat to the ground.

> Can I suggest at this stage that we start a new email list for ken and
those
> interested in his views and let the rest of us get on with weather matters
> and proven science on aussie weather.
You don't have to read my messages, David. You certainly shouldn't try to
get me censored just because I have different ideas to you. This isn't Iraq.

> (Blair)If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/

and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html

Thanks Blair, much appreciated. I'd welcome someone else verifying my work,
if they have the time.
Ken
www.predictweather.com



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From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 11:41:10 +1000
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I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
succeed I'll post it up.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to
be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit
of
> > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
form
> > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
facts to
> > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and
came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
April
> > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at
that
> > time, were:
> >
> > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> >
> > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
they
> > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If
I'm
> > wrong, please point out where.
>
> If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
>
> and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
>
> http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
>
> Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> moving west of 90E).
>
> I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
> each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> significant difference between that distribution and the even
> distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> formation.
>
> Blair
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 12:19:59 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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I'm doing it too LOL

I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!

Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!

James
James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
succeed I'll post it up.
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
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This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
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be virus free.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick
bit
of
> > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
only
form
> > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
facts to
> > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
during
> > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
and
came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
April
> > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
at
that
> > time, were:
> >
> > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> >
> > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
the
> > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
can be
> > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
they
> > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
If
I'm
> > wrong, please point out where.
>
> If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
>
> and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
>
> http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
>
> Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> moving west of 90E).
>
> I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
> each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> significant difference between that distribution and the even
> distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> formation.
>
> Blair
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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>  message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: cold night smokey morning
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 13:10:10 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<TITLE>Message</TITLE>

<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=468090803-25102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Yes, 
very cold here this morning. Unfortunately I didn't get a temp as I am 1/2 way 
in a move and the wx station is unplugged and still at my last joint. I have 
been waiting for a still day and someone to help me to pull the mast down and 
move it. It is a 2 man job at the best of times and attempts in the wind would 
be stupidity. All I know is that I woke up at 3am this morning with teeth 
chattering.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<P><FONT size=2>------------------------------------<BR>Glen O'Riley<BR>Computer 
Technician<BR>Kings Creek<BR>Krambach, 2429<BR>Australia<BR>Phone: 02 
65591232<BR>Fax: 02 6559 1348<BR>Mobile: 0439 878 633<BR>Email: 
goriley at tsn.cc<BR>Web: www.mypage.tsn.cc/oriley<BR>ABN: 42 674 332 
428<BR>------------------------------------<BR>Storm Chaser<BR>Rail 
Fan<BR>Electronics &amp; Radio<BR>NSW Rural Fire Service Firefighter<BR>NSW 
State Emergency Services Member<BR>------------------------------------</FONT> 
</P>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] <B>On Behalf Of </B>Keith 
Barnett<BR><B>Sent:</B> Friday, 25 October 2002 10:27 AM<BR><B>To:</B> 
aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: cold night smokey 
morning<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yes it's getting up everyone's nose I think. 
Stopped me going on my usual 4km+ &nbsp;walk. A bit chilly here last night, but 
not that cold! This morning's sounding </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/66-67sydneymetro_index.htm">http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/66-67sydneymetro_index.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>explains the smoke's persistence.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=damoreds at optusnet.com.au 
  href="mailto:damoreds at optusnet.com.au">Damian</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 25, 2002 10:12 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: cold night smokey 
  morning</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><STRONG><FONT face="Courier New" color=#000080>I recorded a cool 8.7 
  degrees here at my place last night between Chatswood West &amp; North Ryde in 
  Sydney's Northern Suburbs. But awoke this morning to a 'very' smokey air &amp; 
  can smell the smoke inside the 
house!</FONT></STRONG></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 15:08:05 +1000
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Also impressive in this photo are the visible plumes of bush fires,
particularly in NE NSW.

John.
>Snip
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:47 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust over eastern Australia


Evening all,

I've got a number more images courtesy of the BoM to go up, but I
thought I'd share this amazing image with you......
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Oct02/dust02296n16-3z.jpg

more to come.......

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 18:32:47 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website. There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 15:43:24 +1000
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I suppose for the purposes of this analysis, the question will really be
defining when the TC actually formed.  Normally, it is taken as when a
Tropical Depression reaches Cat 1 strength and is formally named, but it may
have been meandering around as a significant TD for quite some time
(days/weeks) before that.

Do you want to make a call on this Ken?

John.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website. There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:01:44 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.3416
Importance: Normal
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Actually this has been a great learning experience! I have learnt how to
calculate the age of the moon from a given date, and a ton about the
calculations involved, you should see the size of the excel spread
sheet! (in fact I'll post it for scrutiny later!)

Ok, fist preliminary results of the TC data.

Firstly, I did not analyze the data by moon Phase (moon illumination),
as this is deceptive. Because the phase/illumination follows a
sinusoidal curve, it will appear to be in the "full moon"/"New Moon"
sections for more days, so of course you will see more cyclones then!

Instead I used the moon age. The moon ranges from 0 days old (new moon)
to  29.53 days old (new moon again). Below is a link to a plot of the
number of cyclone reports in each of 5 moon age "bins" 

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/nreports.gif


e.g. Of the 21227 cyclone reports issued since Jan 1907, there were 3940
cyclone reports issued when the moon was 11.8 to 17 days old.

Is this a statistically significant observation? For comparison here is
some purely random data, "bined" in exactly the same fashion
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/rand.gif

Although some variation is seen, there is no clear trend. Also the data
may be slightly skewed considering reports prior to the 70's would have
been made by first hand observations, as no satellite data was
available! Maybe I'll try removing that data later, but as a
preliminary, I think it can be concluded that there is no significant
correlation between the age of the moon and the issuing of cyclone
reports.

Now I know this is not what Ken required, he wished to see relate when
the cyclones first appeared, not the continuation  . . .

That will be next


James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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>  message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 20:10:36 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Craig wrote
> There has not been a significant rainfall event (that would quite possibly
> end this current drought) on or about the 7-9th of any month across
eastern
> Australia since that forecast was made in early August 2002. I believe
that
> could suggest a major flaw in the forecast method/theory used.
My records show that on the 6th and 7th there were showers in SE Australia,
Tasmania , Adelaide and Melbourne. Also hail in Victoria(see post 7/8/02
from Liam), hail in Bathurst(post from Clyve on 8th), record cold temps in
WA(Jacob's post for 9th), cb's everywhere on 11th(Leslie's post of 12th),
hail in NE Vic,(Bussy's post), snow in Canberra, showers on the QLD
coast(website BoM 9th) etc, so quite a bit of rain around.  But it didn't
make it as far east as I thought it would, however, so okay, I accept that I
could have miscalculated. Is one or two mistakes acceptable? If the
metservice gets one wrong do they take the satellites to the tip? I don't
think so. Nor would they say their methodology was flawed. Let's not have
one rule for me and one for the establishment. If you think I was wrong then
I accept that.

> If the dust storm was related to the full moon, why not make a statement
> ahead of time? That would certainly have given your theory a lot of
> credibility.
I have always said that the full moon applies more heat to the ground. The
dust storm was a function of heat. So are tornadoes and TCs. I've never said
there's a dust storm every full moon.

> I note though that the famed Melbourne dust storm of 2 Feb 1983 occurred
> when the moon was a waning crescent (unless I am greatly mistaken) - a
full
> week later in the lunar cycle than Wednesday's storm.
> Any comments?
Sure. It happened about 6 days later than the full moon. If you read my
previous post below you'll see that I said that the extra-heat time is full
moon to last quarter. Your example falls nicely into that time frame.
Thanks, a good example..got any more?



> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
> Hi John and all
> The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
> describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
> maximum
> declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
> predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
> one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
> the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
> includes everyone on this list!!
> The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
> can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event. The
> reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
> atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
> offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
> to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
> West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
> finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
> dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
> by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
> Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
> into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
> because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
> wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:20:06 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.3416
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Ok, now I have done the same thing, but only including the date at which
the cyclone first began . . .

I have assumed that the date of the first report in the data is the date
the cyclone first formed.

Now we have 905 individual "Cyclones"
Sorting these gives:
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/ncyclones.gif


the equivalent random distribution for 905 samples gave this

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/rand905.gif

Again, I see no clear relationship.

Now, the question comes, is every "cyclone" reported in the database
file really a cyclone??? 

That is next :)



James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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>  message.
>
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>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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X-Originating-IP: [203.221.137.138]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: wv images
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:20:27 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Oct 2002 07:20:27.0831 (UTC) FILETIME=[FE4B3C70:01C27BF6]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>


Hi Laurier,

These are CIMSS but they don't have any overlays that I'm aware of:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxwvgms5e.GIF

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.




_________________________________________________________________
Get faster connections -- switch to MSN Internet Access! 
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</x-flowed>
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:29:20 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Sorry one other thing . . . I have put the excel spreadsheet online,
(but I am still working on it so it will change)

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.xls.gz [4.5MB]

I had gzip it as it is 21MB otherwise! You will need a decent computer
to open/run it.

Cheers
James


James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of John
Woodbridge
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:43 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"

I suppose for the purposes of this analysis, the question will really be
defining when the TC actually formed.  Normally, it is taken as when a
Tropical Depression reaches Cat 1 strength and is formally named, but it
may
have been meandering around as a significant TD for quite some time
(days/weeks) before that.

Do you want to make a call on this Ken?

John.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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>  message.
>
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>
>
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XAntiVirus: This e-mail has been scanned for viruses via the Connexus Internet Service
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:37:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


James,

This actually gives a 404 page not found error...

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of James
Holbeach
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 5:20 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2


Ok, now I have done the same thing, but only including the date at which
the cyclone first began . . .

I have assumed that the date of the first report in the data is the date
the cyclone first formed.

Now we have 905 individual "Cyclones"
Sorting these gives:
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/ncyclones.gif


the equivalent random distribution for 905 samples gave this

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/rand905.gif

Again, I see no clear relationship.

Now, the question comes, is every "cyclone" reported in the database
file really a cyclone??? 

That is next :)



James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
>
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>
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>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 20:38:24 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hard to tell, John, and that's part of the problem. Operator bias is a big
variable, which is why the question of proof is so arbitrary. Bearing in
mind a possible heat factor between full moon and last q, I would say that
first identification dates could be a guide. A visual test of a cyclone
formation is what I generally use as my criterion, as showing up on isobaric
maps.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 6:43 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I suppose for the purposes of this analysis, the question will really be
> defining when the TC actually formed.  Normally, it is taken as when a
> Tropical Depression reaches Cat 1 strength and is formally named, but it
may
> have been meandering around as a significant TD for quite some time
> (days/weeks) before that.
>
> Do you want to make a call on this Ken?
>
> John.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:33 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> James
> I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just look
at
> my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
> plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
> either way.
> To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
> please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > I'm doing it too LOL
> >
> > I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> > web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
> >
> > Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
> >
> > James
> > James Holbeach
> > ----------------------------------------
> > Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > ----------------------------------------
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> > Barnett
> > Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> > I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> > succeed I'll post it up.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > ----
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
> > to
> > be virus free.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick
> > bit
> > of
> > > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> > only
> > form
> > > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
> > facts to
> > > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> > during
> > > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> > and
> > came
> > > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
> > April
> > > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> > at
> > that
> > > > time, were:
> > > >
> > > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > > >
> > > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> > the
> > > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> > can be
> > > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
> > they
> > > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> > If
> > I'm
> > > > wrong, please point out where.
> > >
> > > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> > >
> > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> > >
> > > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> > >
> > > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> > >
> > > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > > moving west of 90E).
> > >
> > > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon that
> > > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > > formation.
> > >
> > > Blair
> > >
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> > >  message.
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 20:47:12 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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James
> Now I know this is not what Ken required,
No, I'd say the time interval of full moon to last quarter is, in age,
closer to 13-21 days, not 11-17. Even this is tricky, because the age-date
of full moon can vary widely from 11 days to about 16 days old. I'm not
trying to preset a null hypothesis, just pointing out the difficulties!
Ken


----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 8:01 PM
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis


> Actually this has been a great learning experience! I have learnt how to
> calculate the age of the moon from a given date, and a ton about the
> calculations involved, you should see the size of the excel spread
> sheet! (in fact I'll post it for scrutiny later!)
>
> Ok, fist preliminary results of the TC data.
>
> Firstly, I did not analyze the data by moon Phase (moon illumination),
> as this is deceptive. Because the phase/illumination follows a
> sinusoidal curve, it will appear to be in the "full moon"/"New Moon"
> sections for more days, so of course you will see more cyclones then!
>
> Instead I used the moon age. The moon ranges from 0 days old (new moon)
> to  29.53 days old (new moon again). Below is a link to a plot of the
> number of cyclone reports in each of 5 moon age "bins"
>
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/nreports.gif
>
>
> e.g. Of the 21227 cyclone reports issued since Jan 1907, there were 3940
> cyclone reports issued when the moon was 11.8 to 17 days old.
>
> Is this a statistically significant observation? For comparison here is
> some purely random data, "bined" in exactly the same fashion
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/rand.gif
>
> Although some variation is seen, there is no clear trend. Also the data
> may be slightly skewed considering reports prior to the 70's would have
> been made by first hand observations, as no satellite data was
> available! Maybe I'll try removing that data later, but as a
> preliminary, I think it can be concluded that there is no significant
> correlation between the age of the moon and the issuing of cyclone
> reports.
>
> Now I know this is not what Ken required, he wished to see relate when
> the cyclones first appeared, not the continuation  . . .
>
> That will be next
>
>
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:33 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> James
> I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
> look at
> my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
> There's
> plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
> error
> either way.
> To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
> please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > I'm doing it too LOL
> >
> > I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> > web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
> >
> > Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
> >
> > James
> > James Holbeach
> > ----------------------------------------
> > Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> > University of Melbourne, Australia
> > ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> > ----------------------------------------
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> > Barnett
> > Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> > I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> > succeed I'll post it up.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > ----
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
> certified
> > to
> > be virus free.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
> quick
> > bit
> > of
> > > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> > only
> > form
> > > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
> the
> > facts to
> > > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> > during
> > > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> > and
> > came
> > > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
> and
> > April
> > > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> > at
> > that
> > > > time, were:
> > > >
> > > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > > >
> > > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> > the
> > > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> > can be
> > > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
> dates
> > they
> > > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> > If
> > I'm
> > > > wrong, please point out where.
> > >
> > > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> > >
> > > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> > >
> > > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> > >
> > > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> > >
> > > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > > moving west of 90E).
> > >
> > > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
> that
> > > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > > formation.
> > >
> > > Blair
> > >
> >
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> > your
> > >  message.
> > >
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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> >
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From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclones vs the Moon
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 17:47:28 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have made a modest attempt at analysing this 
problem.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There are other people out there far more 
knowledgeable than me ,but here goes:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I carried out a chi square independence test using 
the null hypothesis that the moon does not have any significant effect on the 
formation of tropical cyclones.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I plotted the number of cyclones that occurred 
during each phase of the moon from the 1970-71 cyclone season onwards. This was 
the result:</FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial>
<DIV>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=116 border=0>
  <TBODY>
  <TR>
    <TD width="54%" height=13>
      <P align=left><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>New</FONT></P></TD>
    <TD width="46%" height=13>
      <P align=right><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>83</FONT></P></TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD width="54%" height=13>
      <P align=left><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>1st</FONT></P></TD>
    <TD width="46%" height=13>
      <P align=right><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>126</FONT></P></TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD width="54%" height=13>
      <P align=left><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>Full</FONT></P></TD>
    <TD width="46%" height=13>
      <P align=right><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>90</FONT></P></TD></TR>
  <TR>
    <TD width="54%" height=13>
      <P align=left><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" size=2>Last</FONT></P></TD>
    <TD width="46%" height=13>
      <P align=right><FONT face="MS Sans Serif" 
  size=2>100</FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>This was based on the different names of the cyclones, and 
using only the date they first appeared in the Bureau's data.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The data format was pretty hard to decipher which might mean 
that James's cyclone count of 905 is the more correct figure but even so, my 
estimate is still valid for the purpose of&nbsp;a test.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I theorised that if the moon had no influence, we should 
expect cyclones to occur (on average) evenly. That is to say, on average there 
should be 99.75 cyclones per phase.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The chi square test statistic came in at 5.089. The 
probability was 0.165405.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>There is only a 16% probability that the difference between 
the observed and expected occurrences was due to the lunar phases.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>If I have got it wrong, that's fine. I like to 
learn!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 20:54:25 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Just looking at your preliminary graph of number of cyclone reports vs moon
age, it strikes me that perhaps the higher number of hits occurred after
23.6 days, i.e. just after the full moon-last quarter time interval, and if
your TC criteria was a TC well-formed, then perhaps it fits the theory.

> Below is a link to a plot of the
> number of cyclone reports in each of 5 moon age "bins"
>
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/nreports.gif
>
>


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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 21:02:26 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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> Now, the question comes, is every "cyclone" reported in the database
> file really a cyclone??? 
> 
> That is next :)
Perhaps only pick those with names, and that last in excess of 3 or 4 days.

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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 18:45:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just a guess I'd say solar radiation and the fact 
that the heat cannot escape from your car. Just my idea :-) I'm 
out...</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=sclmacdonald at optusnet.com.au 
  href="mailto:sclmacdonald at optusnet.com.au">macdonald</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 25, 2002 10:36 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: QUESTION ?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
  <DIV>I have some weather related questions for a Project i am working on with 
  my team members. I have to complete it this weekend.... just need some good 
  links.&nbsp; I have a fair idea.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>WHy does the inside of the car continue to heat up when the outside 
  temperature outside remains constant?</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Convection process and a diagram ( need a good link)</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>thankyou in advance,</DIV>
  <DIV>It is very dry here in the Gold Coast hinterland. I seem to have problems 
  with java, so i can't update my page. So far we've had 498mm for the year, 
  which is very dry for here. I think we'll be lucky to 700mm this year. Hinze 
  dam is 39.91%.</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Cheers</DIV>
  <DIV>Sam</DIV>
  <DIV>Tallai/Guyra Weather</DIV>
  <DIV><A 
  href="http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html">http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html</A></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: wv images
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 18:51:47 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Been looking for one too! Thanks Kevin, much appreciated.
Bussy

----- Original Message -----
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 5:20 PM
Subject: aus-wx: wv images


>
>
> Hi Laurier,
>
> These are CIMSS but they don't have any overlays that I'm aware of:
>
> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxwvgms5e.GIF
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Get faster connections -- switch to MSN Internet Access!
> http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/default.asp
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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X-Originating-IP: [203.220.169.124]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 19:53:16 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Oct 2002 09:53:16.0394 (UTC) FILETIME=[572EECA0:01C27C0C]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>

Hi every1,

Thought someone more expert mighta cleaned this one up already...
but my spin on it is that a car sitting in the sun is a greenhouse.
Solar radiation entering as short-wave radiation re-radiates as long-wave 
radiation which has less chance of passing through glass.

So the air inside heats up (as a greenhouse does)...lotsa glass in cars.

Anyway,
Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.





>From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
>Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 18:45:14 +1000
>
>Just a guess I'd say solar radiation and the fact that the heat cannot 
>escape from your car. Just my idea :-) I'm out...
>   ----- Original Message -----
>   From: macdonald
>   To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>   Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:36 AM
>   Subject: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
>
>
>   Hi All,
>   I have some weather related questions for a Project i am working on with 
>my team members. I have to complete it this weekend.... just need some good 
>links.  I have a fair idea.
>
>   WHy does the inside of the car continue to heat up when the outside 
>temperature outside remains constant?
>
>   Convection process and a diagram ( need a good link)
>
>   thankyou in advance,
>   It is very dry here in the Gold Coast hinterland. I seem to have 
>problems with java, so i can't update my page. So far we've had 498mm for 
>the year, which is very dry for here. I think we'll be lucky to 700mm this 
>year. Hinze dam is 39.91%.
>
>   Cheers
>   Sam
>   Tallai/Guyra Weather
>   http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html
>


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</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: QUESTION ?
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 23:36:46 +1300
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>lack of ventilation inside, plenty of ventilation 
outside</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 25, 2002 9:45 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: QUESTION ?</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just a guess I'd say solar radiation and the fact 
  that the heat cannot escape from your car. Just my idea :-) I'm 
  out...</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A title=sclmacdonald at optusnet.com.au 
    href="mailto:sclmacdonald at optusnet.com.au">macdonald</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
    </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 25, 2002 10:36 
    AM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: QUESTION ?</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV>Hi All,</DIV>
    <DIV>I have some weather related questions for a Project i am working on 
    with my team members. I have to complete it this weekend.... just need some 
    good links.&nbsp; I have a fair idea.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>WHy does the inside of the car continue to heat up when the outside 
    temperature outside remains constant?</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Convection process and a diagram ( need a good link)</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>thankyou in advance,</DIV>
    <DIV>It is very dry here in the Gold Coast hinterland. I seem to have 
    problems with java, so i can't update my page. So far we've had 498mm for 
    the year, which is very dry for here. I think we'll be lucky to 700mm this 
    year. Hinze dam is 39.91%.</DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV>Cheers</DIV>
    <DIV>Sam</DIV>
    <DIV>Tallai/Guyra Weather</DIV>
    <DIV><A 
    href="http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html">http://www.geocities.com/ratman6900/index.html</A></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Craig Arthur" <craig_arthur at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 21:18:46 +1000
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Sorry to drag this out, but the Melbourne dust storm was in the last
quarter - 8 days after the full moon. Your initial statement said 'the full
moon'. There is a large difference between the two. Your initial statement
is what I went by, only for you to come back and 'alter' your statement on
the theory so that the event could be included.

You would also do well not to claim rain days two days after your forecast
time, one day leeway or not.

Perhaps in future when posting your forecasts, try to be more specific. If
that means you need to add your disclaimer of one day's leeway each time,
I'm quite happy to see your forecasts.

Regards, Craig

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 17:11
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


Craig wrote
> There has not been a significant rainfall event (that would quite
possibly
> end this current drought) on or about the 7-9th of any month across
eastern
> Australia since that forecast was made in early August 2002. I believe
that
> could suggest a major flaw in the forecast method/theory used.
My records show that on the 6th and 7th there were showers in SE Australia,
Tasmania , Adelaide and Melbourne. Also hail in Victoria(see post 7/8/02
from Liam), hail in Bathurst(post from Clyve on 8th), record cold temps in
WA(Jacob's post for 9th), cb's everywhere on 11th(Leslie's post of 12th),
hail in NE Vic,(Bussy's post), snow in Canberra, showers on the QLD
coast(website BoM 9th) etc, so quite a bit of rain around.  But it didn't
make it as far east as I thought it would, however, so okay, I accept that
I
could have miscalculated. Is one or two mistakes acceptable? If the
metservice gets one wrong do they take the satellites to the tip? I don't
think so. Nor would they say their methodology was flawed. Let's not have
one rule for me and one for the establishment. If you think I was wrong
then
I accept that.

> If the dust storm was related to the full moon, why not make a statement
> ahead of time? That would certainly have given your theory a lot of
> credibility.
I have always said that the full moon applies more heat to the ground. The
dust storm was a function of heat. So are tornadoes and TCs. I've never
said
there's a dust storm every full moon.

> I note though that the famed Melbourne dust storm of 2 Feb 1983 occurred
> when the moon was a waning crescent (unless I am greatly mistaken) - a
full
> week later in the lunar cycle than Wednesday's storm.
> Any comments?
Sure. It happened about 6 days later than the full moon. If you read my
previous post below you'll see that I said that the extra-heat time is full
moon to last quarter. Your example falls nicely into that time frame.
Thanks, a good example..got any more?



> > Hell Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
>
> Hi John and all
> The book's been written already. In my Predicting Weather By The Moon, I
> describe categorically how the El Nino is a function of the nodal or
> maximum
> declination cycle. It is no coincidence. Back in July on this forum I
> predicted the present drought and I was somewhat laughed at. That's okay,
> one expects it, especially from professional meteorologists who can't
stand
> the idea that an amateur might hold some of the answers. Not that that
> includes everyone on this list!!
> The dust storm? Full-moon-related, quite obviously. Only during full moon
> can the sun generate enough heat on the ground to cause such an event.
The
> reason is that the moon is out of the sky during the day and taking the
> atmosphere with it, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon which
> offers less resistance to the sun's heat. Tropical cyclones also only
form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case
we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 2:07 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Hi Keith, Ken, David,
> >
> > Well yes, but what causes the depressions?  It seems that El Nino
relates
> to
> > a flow of warm water across to the East of the Pacific instead of
sitting
> > over the Western Pacific around Indonesia.  This in turn is apparently
> > related to a drop in the normal SE trades  (which push surface water
> West),
> > but you would think that perhaps the drop in the SE trades is simply a
> > natural consequence of the Low pressure area's moving East with the
warm
> > water...  And maybe the whole thing is a bit of both, and is a quite
> finely
> > tuned feedback mechanism needing only a relatively small influence to
> > commence the cycle.
> >
> > So, playing devils advocate then, is there a chance that drift of less
> dense
> > warm water across the Pacific is indeed initiated or influenced somehow
> by
> > the tidal pull of the moon as it interacts variably year to year with
the
> > summer/winter cycles, leading ultimately to the El Nino cycles?  Hell
> Ken,
> > if the connection can be shown, there's a chance for a new book "The
moon
> as
> > a motivator for El Nino".
> >
> > John.
> > >snip
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> >
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
> > Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 10:04 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > This lends weight to (my) idea that all the moisture is being 'emptied'
> into
> > the tropical southwest Pacific and so can't get across to Australia
> because
> > the twin depressions either side of the equator have reversed the trade
> wind
> > circulation in the area.
> > Keith Barnett
> > Weather fanatic and classical musician
> > Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> >
> >
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> >  message.
>
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> >
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 21:42:40 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Sorry my fault- spelling error, try it now :)

James

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of John
Woodbridge
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 5:38 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2

James,

This actually gives a 404 page not found error...

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of James
Holbeach
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 5:20 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #2


Ok, now I have done the same thing, but only including the date at which
the cyclone first began . . .

I have assumed that the date of the first report in the data is the date
the cyclone first formed.

Now we have 905 individual "Cyclones"
Sorting these gives:
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/ncyclones.gif


the equivalent random distribution for 905 samples gave this

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/rand905.gif

Again, I see no clear relationship.

Now, the question comes, is every "cyclone" reported in the database
file really a cyclone??? 

That is next :)



James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 3:33 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

James
I'm thrilled you are taking the trouble to yest my predictions. Just
look at
my predictions for October and November for Australia on my website.
There's
plenty there to access and test out. Don't forget I ask for a 24 hour
error
either way.
To those who are going to do a comparison matching moon phases to TC's,
please note the day the TC's formed, not the day they reached Australia.
Ken
www.predictweather.com

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 3:19 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I'm doing it too LOL
>
> I just need to find a file outlining moon phases- rather than the
> web-site given as it is not easy to import into excel!
>
> Ken, I'm still waiting on your previous predictions!
>
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 11:41 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
> I'm going to give this a go, but there's a lot of data on there! If I
> succeed I'll post it up.
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ----
> -----------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is
certified
> to
> be virus free.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Blair Trewin" <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 10:33 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one
quick
> bit
> of
> > > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also
> only
> form
> > > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for
the
> facts to
> > > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed
> during
> > > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site
> and
> came
> > > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001
and
> April
> > > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase
> at
> that
> > > time, were:
> > >
> > > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> > >
> > > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of
> the
> > > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it
> can be
> > > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the
dates
> they
> > > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles.
> If
> I'm
> > > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > If anyone feels like taking this study any further, a complete list
> > of Australian region tropical cyclones can be found at:
> >
> > http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/how/
> >
> > and a list of moon phases for all years between 1700 and 2015 at:
> >
> > http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
> >
> > Probably best only to use post-1969 cyclone data (before the
> > satellite era a lot of systems got missed, especially in their early
> > stages). The data files only contain co-ordinates while the cyclones
> > are in the Australian region (which extends well beyond Australia),
> > but it is very rare for a cyclone to form outside the Australian
> > region and move into it. (The reverse happens occasionally, with
> > Coral Sea systems moving into PNG's region and Indian Ocean ones
> > moving west of 90E).
> >
> > I don't have time to do this myself (at least not now), but it
> > should be fairly straightforward to (for example) compile a
> > frequency distribution of the number of days after the full moon
that
> > each cyclone forms, and see whether there is any statistically
> > significant difference between that distribution and the even
> > distribution you'd expect if the moon has no influence on TC
> > formation.
> >
> > Blair
> >
>
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>
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> >
>
>
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 22:15:08 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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I'm not sure you actually read what I wrote, that graph shows nothing
statistically significant. Look at the graph produced using random
numbers (using the =rand() fn in excel), it produced a similar
distribution.

Also, that preliminary graph did not count the number of cyclones, but
the number of reports. A Single cyclone event in the database, could
have 5-20 reports associated with it. It was meant to give a general
idea of what the moon phase was during the duration of a cyclonic event.
In my opinion it shows no relationship.

The second graph, outlining the moon age at the beginning of a cyclonic
event, was spelt incorrectly on the server, so you can't have actually
seen that yet!

I've fixed that now, so you can look  at  it.
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/ncyclones.gif 

This again shows no relationship. I believe that further limiting the
analysis to named cyclones only which last >3 days will reduce the
available data to such low numbers that no analysis could possibly
produce statistically believable result, which makes me wonder how you
could justify your results? Nevertheless, I will do it (it is pretty
easy to do) on Monday, when I get back to the office.

Cheers

James
 James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Friday, 25 October 2002 5:54 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis

Just looking at your preliminary graph of number of cyclone reports vs
moon
age, it strikes me that perhaps the higher number of hits occurred after
23.6 days, i.e. just after the full moon-last quarter time interval, and
if
your TC criteria was a TC well-formed, then perhaps it fits the theory.

> Below is a link to a plot of the
> number of cyclone reports in each of 5 moon age "bins"
>
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/nreports.gif
>
>


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Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 23:32:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
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<x-flowed>
At 02:52 AM 25/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>I will keeping close track on Kens Predictions, why not start making notes 
>on how well he predicts, test his model out your own way, you dig up the 
>facts to proove he is incorrect then we will believe you.

This is the way to go.  I don't think I'll be able to keep track of Ken's 
predictions, but for people like yourself, you'll be doing everyone a 
service by doing so.  One of 3 outcomes will happen:

1.  Ken's proven right by an independent observer or three
2.  Ken's proven wrong.
3.  We can't come to any conclusion and more research will be needed to 
prove or deny his claims.

I'm interested to see the outcome of this exercise.

>These ideas may be far fetched to you, but what happens if he is correct?

Exactly!  Ken at least deserves a fair hearing and a scientific approach to 
study his claims.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "dann weatherhead" <weatherhead at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 23:33:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


At least there's some life in the ol' aus-wx discussion list. I am enjoying
this debate.
Keep it up :)

dann

PS--I love (and have always loved) your brief and inspired musings Clyve.
They make me constantly re-examine my weather enriching the whole wonderful
world of the atmosphere as i cast my eye over. Thanks for your constant and
excellent contributions.

dann

----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 7:18 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Okay....enough of the flaming and stuff people, and lets get back to what
> everyone on the list enjoys....watching weather...not argueing about it.
> There's enough flame wars on Wx-Chase...you might wanna try there if you
> want to start one.
>
> PaulY
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 1:17 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> Laurier
> Sorry you think I'm pulling your leg. I'm not. Facts? I would have thought
a
> humungus dust storm was kind of enough for one day. Chuck in a drought,
> successfully predicted to last until November, based only on repeating
moon
> orbits and you could begin to get someone's attention. The trouble is,
> whatever facts I come up with are never enough for some people. They
go..oh
> yeah, that, mustve been coincidence. Just COULDN'T be evidence of
something
> that might require that we change our minds about something or look
outside
> of the square, just couldn't be. Must be El Nino, or La Nina, or La Nada
or
> La la dee dah. Yeah, that explains it. Don't want any new age pesky moon
> stuff; that's for GIRL'S.
> A coincidence is just a high degree of correlation that thus far hasn't
been
> adequately explained. Well, isn't high correlation solid science?
> > I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area
> Nah, I'm talking of the date they formed, not the date they reached
> Australia. Who gives a hoot where they end up? One always takes a few days
> after forming to get down here. That's what I mean - a skeptic will look
at
> a later date in a different frame of reference and say sorry mate, no
deal.
> which is why I'm not posting data here. I've done it already and got
flamed.
> It just wastes my time.
> I think the suggestion by Tony that we all note the moon phase when a
> cyclone or dust storm forms is a good one. And you could add to that a big
> earthquake, an eruption, a tornado or a nice big hailstorm.
> Don't get me wrong folks, I thoroughly appreciate the discussion of this
> thread. I am as much a scientist, by training, as anyone on this list, but
I
> know enough to know that concepts like proof, stats, criteria, logic, fact
> etc are all up for grabs when a new idea appears. Unfortunately the
> scientific method is flawed because it is really best suited to repeating
> what has already been tested, and it is always protective of established
> parameters. Also, the same scientist must do all the experiments,
otherwise
> you cannot eliminate operator bias, which is clearly an impossibility,
which
> means there cannot be a truly fair scientific experiment, only another
> expresion of opinion.
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Thursday, October 24, 2002 11:49 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Ken
> >
> > Thanks for your swift response.
> >
> > I'm a bit surprised by some of your statements, from the standpoint of
> logic
> > rather than science.
> >
> > "What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality is
> > assumed when a result follows an event."
> > "There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can
be
> > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a graph I
> could
> > be accused of presenting a certain bias."
> > "Easy enough to look up yourself."
> > "...the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once again,
> > do it yourself."
> > "I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own record-keeping
> > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim."
> > "Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
doing
> > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than to
do
> > the work..."
> > "Disagreement is healthy as long as personalities don't get in the way
of
> > facts."
> >
> > Ken, I think you're pulling our legs, and doing it very successfully. I
> > simply asked you for some facts to support your arguments. I was not
being
> > critical; just asking for facts. You provided none, but suggested that
it
> > was up to others to prove you wrong; however, you dismiss the use of
data
> > (facts) because they can "prove or disprove anything", and you dismiss
the
> > whole the concept of proof. It seems to me that, under these
> circumstances,
> > argument or discussion is futile. That's why I think you're pulling our
> > legs.
> >
> > Getting into the spirit of the game, however, I have done one quick bit
of
> > "legwork". In your earlier post, you said "Tropical cyclones also only
> form
> > from full moon-last quarter", and in response to my request for the
facts
> to
> > back that up you wrote "The 14 or so TC's last summer only formed during
> > that lunar phase time". I did a quick check of Tom Metcalf's site and
came
> > up with 7 cyclones in the Australian area between November 2001 and
April
> > 2002. These, the date they reached TC strength, and the moon phase at
that
> > time, were:
> >
> > 03S, 21/11/01, 1st quarter
> > Chris, 3/2/02, 3
> > Bonnie, 10/4/02, 4
> > Bernie, 3/1/02, 3
> > Upia, 25/3/02, 2
> > Claudia, 11/2/02, 4
> > Des, 5/3/02, 3
> >
> > Taking "full moon-last quarter" to mean the third quarter, four of the
> > cyclones developed during other phases of the moon. Of course, it can be
> > argued that the genesis of these cyclones was earlier than the dates
they
> > reached TC status, but it still leads to a spread of lunar cycles. If
I'm
> > wrong, please point out where.
> >
> > I love the weather, and trying to understand it. But fundamental to
> > understanding is a willingness to apply logical argument and to look
for,
> > and share, information. I feel Ken's response does neither.
> >
> > Laurier
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > > Sent: Thursday, 24 October, 2002 6:27 PM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > Laurier, James, Jane and all
> > > Let's not be afraid of having strong ideas. Disagreement is
> > > healthy as long
> > > as personalities don't get in the way of facts. What I said in
> > > july was what
> > > David Jones responded to, in which I said NSW would see drought
> conditions
> > > right till November, a point he, a professional meteorologist, cast
some
> > > doubt on when he replied "And, what is so special about the
> > > moon's behavior
> > > this year that leads you to believe that the August through
> > > November period
> > > should only get ~110mm of rain in Sydney, an amount that would place
it
> > > within the driest 10% of historical observations, and not far from the
> > > driest such period on record.." Any way I read it that did not
> > > sound like an
> > > agreement with me that the drought would last till now. Let's not
mince
> > > words, the drought IS not far from the driest such period on
> > > record.  I hate
> > > to harp on this but I was not incorrect, whereas David's response was,
> in
> > > hindsight, clearly misplaced.
> > >
> > > > (Jane)What date did the drought actually start?
> > > A drought does not have an official starting date.
> > >
> > > > What predictors did you use to predict "it"?
> > > Just the moon's position.
> > >
> > > > 2. Where is the proof that
> > > > "it" was caused by, or even related to, the predictors you used.
> > > What proof is there for anything, for that matter, because causality
is
> > > assumed when a result follows an event.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Can you show me a statistical analysis, proving that when there is a
> > > > full moon that ground temperatures are higher? I'm sure there is
tons
> of
> > > > data to support or disprove such a hypothesis. . . .
> > > There are tons of data but as any statistician will know, a graph can
be
> > > constructed to prove or disprove anything and were I to post a
> > > graph I could
> > > be accused of presenting a certain bias. It is up to each skeptic
> > > to do his
> > > own work if he is serious about proving or disproving a lunar role.
> > >
> > > > Also . . . . can you explain why a full moon matters in your
> > > > explanation? Surely a New Moon would have the same effect if it was
in
> > > > the right position?
> > > No, the New Moon is in the sky during the day and prevents solar
> > > radiation.
> > >
> > > >Could you please, again, support your explanation
> > > > with some sound scientific data?
> > > I dispute those two words. "Sound" is in the eye of the beholder.
> > > "Science"
> > > is ..what? That proposed by scientists? Are these the same bods
> > > who say CO2
> > > is rising up to form a greenhouse cover when anyone who is not a
> scientist
> > > knows that CO2 is heavier than air? Or the scientists of old -
> Copernicus,
> > > Galileo, Newton, Franklin, Kepler etc, all of whom were self-confessed
> > > astrologers? In my view, science is ONLY empirical and it is what
> > > I'm trying
> > > to do.
> > >
> > > > Is it possible, that you are only looking for dust-storms more when
> > > > there is a full moon, to justify your arguments? I would simply like
> to
> > > > see some scientific data to back them up. If you are so confident
> about
> > > > your theory- and I am not saying it is not possible (just unlikely),
> > > > then surely you would not be adverse to examining such data, and
> > > > allowing a rigorous examination of your "coincidences" . . . .
> > > I'm not looking for anything. You sound like you're are looking
> > > for an easy
> > > way to get out of doing some hard long correlation work..
> > >
> > > > Can you please explain the connection, not
> > > > between the lunar phase and question of heat, but between the
> > > lunar phase
> > > > and this specific duststorm.
> > > Heat applied to the ground is part of the cause of the duststorm.
> > >
> > > > What has been the lunar phase during the half-dozen or so major
> > > duststorms
> > > > in Australia over the past century?
> > > Easy enough to look up yourself. I don't have access to Aussie
records.
> I
> > > have to buy everything and I suggest you can do the same. The
> > > professionals
> > > have unlimited access to all the old files. Perhaps get one of
> > > them onto it.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Also, what evidence is there that the sun generates more heat on the
> > > ground
> > > > during a full moon than otherwise? A tidal effect on the
> > > atmosphere sounds
> > > > quite reasonable, but just how much more solar radiation does it
allow
> > > > through, and how do we know this?
> > > About 20% more, I'd say. It would vary with location. It is easily
> > > measurable and the work has been done, by me and Harry Alcock. Once
> again,
> > > do it yourself. Get an old exposure meter, put a sunglass lens over it
> and
> > > point it to the sky, tracking the sun during the day every day
> > > over a month.
> > > You will find that when in the daytime the moon is out of the sky, the
> sun
> > > shines brighter. The moon is only out of the sky during full moon and
> last
> > > quarter.
> > >
> > >
> > > > Have you a simple table
> > > > correlating tropical cyclone formation dates with moon phases,
> > > say for the
> > > > past decade or so? This would help convince me that TCs only form
> during
> > > the
> > > > one lunar quarter.
> > > Sure I have. I don't make this stuff up. The 14 or so TC's last
> > > summer only
> > > formed during that lunar phase time, something I did post to this
forum
> at
> > > the end of summer. I suggest each skeptic starts his/her own
> > > record-keeping
> > > of lunar correlation if they seriously want to discount what I claim.
> > >
> > > > If all (or even
> > > > most) major duststorms, and all (or even most) tropical cyclones can
> be
> > > > shown to have occurred/formed during particular moon phases, it
should
> > > > certainly kick off a concerted study to explain the coincidence. And
> as
> > > the
> > > > dates of all these events -- duststorms, cyclones and moon phases --
> are
> > > > precisely known, only a clerical job is needed to produce a table
that
> > > > proves the coincidences.
> > > > I look forward to seeing it.
> > > Nothing stopping you doing the legwork, Laurier. I've done it, been
> doing
> > > little else for the last 27 years. But it's easier to criticise than
to
> do
> > > the work, which is what we see in meteorological circles. The
> > > moon is still
> > > ignored by forecasters, because of the heavy focus on barometric
> pressure,
> > > when weather is much more than simple pressure differential. A
barometer
> > > ignores changes in atmospheric height, because it is set to read at
> > > sealevel. But the constant change in atmospheric height is what
happens
> in
> > > the air tide, just as changes in sea height result in the sea
> > > tide. Without
> > > the barometer the meteorologists are stuffed - they have no science.
The
> > > trouble is, the change in atmospheric height is hard to detect, but it
> can
> > > be seen in cloud height as the moon changes altitude.
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
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> > >
> >
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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1 (Unverified)
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Fri, 25 Oct 2002 23:40:02 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:42 AM 25/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>Not centrifugal force, because that would operate all around the
>circumference, not just at one point. Unfortunately for those who want

But it would be more extreme at the point furthest from the centre of mass 
than at the "sides" of the Earth, so there'd still be an uneven effect 
across the globe, at its maximum on the side opposite the Moon.

>simple explanations, normal physics doesn't explain it. Only astrological
>physics, explained initially by Sir Isaac Newton, hacks it, but not many
>understand it nowadays. Newton's work was dressed up for the scientific
>community by Sir George Darwin, Charles's dad, and being an influential
>figure everyone turned to him. But he got it wrong. When planets are at
>certain angles to a location on earth they exert a pull because they nullify
>earth's gravity. It's kind of like a narrow, sometimes momentary, special
>force "corridor". The moon gets itself into these angles and only when it
>does do we get tides, earthquakes, eruptions, and ..da da..heavy rain. The
>sun only evaporates water and applies heat to the ground. It cannot cause
>rain and it cannot cause weather to change at night, as we all know it does.

I'd like to see this in more detail.


> > To me, it's
> > reasonable to expect that the Moon has some effect on the atmosphere
> > (through gravity), and therefore the weather..
>Thanks for your openmindness, Tony

No probs.  That's how we learn.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 08:44:55 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Tony
Whilst I appreciate the attention given to this exercise, I agree with you
that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because the variables are too
great. It's like trying to prove an unhappy childhood causes someone to rob
a bank. We do not yet have a science that can adequately measure what the
atmosphere does, just as we don't have any handle on the moon other than
what astrology will tell you. This does not disprove moon theory - only
shows up our inadequate science. Both airtide and moon have not been
considered worthy of heavy research investment. The kind of analysis some
are doing re phases/cyclones is just statistical playing around the edges,
but not to say that that it may fruitless. But I won't hold my breath. I
think all three outcomes you described below will be relevant.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 2:32 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> At 02:52 AM 25/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>
> >I will keeping close track on Kens Predictions, why not start making
notes
> >on how well he predicts, test his model out your own way, you dig up the
> >facts to proove he is incorrect then we will believe you.
>
> This is the way to go.  I don't think I'll be able to keep track of Ken's
> predictions, but for people like yourself, you'll be doing everyone a
> service by doing so.  One of 3 outcomes will happen:
>
> 1.  Ken's proven right by an independent observer or three
> 2.  Ken's proven wrong.
> 3.  We can't come to any conclusion and more research will be needed to
> prove or deny his claims.
>
> I'm interested to see the outcome of this exercise.
>
> >These ideas may be far fetched to you, but what happens if he is correct?
>
> Exactly!  Ken at least deserves a fair hearing and a scientific approach
to
> study his claims.
>
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.221.127.254]
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 08:18:05 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.



Hi all,

It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited rain
event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see what
comes out of it.

I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some significant
rainfalls before then.

Jimmy



Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 08:49:39 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Jimmy,

Definately...I was looking at it last night and with such a strong upper
trough pushing into a region of fresh E-SE winds it does look like the
potential for a much needed rain event.  Especially if a lot of storms
develop to the west tomorrow...we'll see.

AC

Dave Ellem wrote:
> 
> Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited rain
> event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see what
> comes out of it.
> 
> I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
> frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some significant
> rainfalls before then.
> 
> Jimmy
> 
> Dave Ellem,
> Wollongbar,
> Northern Rivers,
> NE NSW
> http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> 
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-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 08:58:22 +1000
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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 Quote:" I agree with you
that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because the variables are
too
great."

Of course we can . . . you predict it is going to rain . . .  it rains .
. . you are correct. . .  it does not rain, you are incorrect.

Do this 365 times over a year, and a pattern will emerge.

Equally, you say a full moon = more heat to the ground? An analysis of
ground temperatures by moon phase should show some relationship!

Why are you discounting the results of an analysis of your theories
before those results have even been achieved?

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------
 

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:19:08 +1300
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Hi all
I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in
November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
My prediction for Sydney:
Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st, and
24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
My prediction for Brisbane:
Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th, heaviest
falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly dry
again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
Ken
www.predictweather.com


----- Original Message -----
From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD


> Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
>
>
>
> Hi all,
>
> It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited rain
> event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see what
> comes out of it.
>
> I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
> frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
significant
> rainfalls before then.
>
> Jimmy
>
>
>
> Dave Ellem,
> Wollongbar,
> Northern Rivers,
> NE NSW
> http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 10:07:36 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 12:19 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>Hi all
>I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in
>November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
>My prediction for Sydney:
>Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st, and
>24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
>My prediction for Brisbane:
>Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th, heaviest
>falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly dry
>again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
>between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com

OK, what about Melbourne?

I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 10:35:28 +1000
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I agree with you Tony for all Aus looking at the sea surface temperature
anomalies.

------------------------------------
Glen O'Riley
Computer Technician
3727 Bucketts Way
Krambach, 2429
Australia
Mobile: 0439 878 633
Email: goriley at tsn.cc
Web: www.mypage.tsn.cc/oriley
ABN: 42 674 332 428
------------------------------------
Storm Chaser
Rail Fan
Electronics & Radio
NSW Rural Fire Service Firefighter
NSW State Emergency Services Member
------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Tony Langdon
(VK3JED)
Sent: Saturday, 26 October 2002 10:08 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming


At 12:19 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>Hi all
>I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in

>November, as I posted on 24/7/02. My prediction for Sydney:
>Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st,
and
>24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
>My prediction for Brisbane:
>Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th,
heaviest
>falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly
dry
>again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
>between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com

OK, what about Melbourne?

I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 14:47:11 +1300
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland yesterday
morning as an active cold front moved over the area. As it was only a mini
tornado only localised damage occured.

JohnGaul
NZTS

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From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:10:25 +1000
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> A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland...

Now come on John, that's just asking for it here! ;)

Exciting news all the same though. Even better when the damage is
minimal.

Andrew.

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:34:21 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
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Hi Ken...
I am interssted in your November forecast for Sydney. 
More than 40 mm in November occurs in about 80% of years so that's a
fairly safe bet.
Given your stated "1 day out"is still accurate philosphy that means that
as long as rains between 1st and 4th, 6th to 11th, 15th to 22nd and 23rd
to 29th you can claim being correct.  That leaves jusat 6 days! 
if it rains on 5th, 12th,13th, 14th or 30th we will let you know... 
Top forecast - really sticking your neck out here. You must be pulling
our legs !!! Or maybe New Zealanders are just more gullible.
Cheers,
Don White 

Ken Ring wrote:
> 
> Hi all
> I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in
> November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
> My prediction for Sydney:
> Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st, and
> 24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
> My prediction for Brisbane:
> Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th, heaviest
> falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly dry
> again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
> between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
> 
> > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited rain
> > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see what
> > comes out of it.
> >
> > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
> > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
> significant
> > rainfalls before then.
> >
> > Jimmy
> >
> >
> >
> > Dave Ellem,
> > Wollongbar,
> > Northern Rivers,
> > NE NSW
> > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
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From: "Michael Wright" <mwri6219 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone formmation
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 13:13:40 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0<BR>178.8W4 HAS BEEN 
RELOCATED NEAR 10.6S7 178.9E5, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM<BR>NORTH OF THE FIJI 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND<BR>MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES CYCLIC, BUT ORGANIZED,<BR>DEEP CONVECTION WITH INCREASED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS<BR>DEPICTS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE<BR>REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25<BR>KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
1003 MB. BASED<BR>ON THE INCREASED OUTFLOW AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, WE 
WILL BE<BR>ISSUING A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (TCFA) FOR THIS 
SYSTEM<BR>WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON ANTICIPATED ISSUANCE OF A 
TCFA<BR>ON THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT<BR>TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
GOOD.<BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [210.50.30.21]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 14:23:40 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Oct 2002 04:23:41.0109 (UTC) FILETIME=[769BA650:01C27CA7]
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<x-flowed>
      Unless he is saying it will rain almost continuously on those 
consecutive days.  To only end up with 40mm after all that it's going to be 
a miserable and very drizzly November.  Can you clarify your forecasts a 
little more Ken, do you mean there will be at least a drop of rain in Sydney 
from the 7-10th etc, or that all of those days will experience a significant 
fall?  Either way I do hope some 'weather' returns to Sydney, every time 
I've seen the word DRY in a forecast I have an epileptic type fit.






>From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
>Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 12:34:21 +1000
>
>Hi Ken...
>I am interssted in your November forecast for Sydney.
>More than 40 mm in November occurs in about 80% of years so that's a
>fairly safe bet.
>Given your stated "1 day out"is still accurate philosphy that means that
>as long as rains between 1st and 4th, 6th to 11th, 15th to 22nd and 23rd
>to 29th you can claim being correct.  That leaves jusat 6 days!
>if it rains on 5th, 12th,13th, 14th or 30th we will let you know...
>Top forecast - really sticking your neck out here. You must be pulling
>our legs !!! Or maybe New Zealanders are just more gullible.
>Cheers,
>Don White
>
>Ken Ring wrote:
> >
> > Hi all
> > I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in
> > November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
> > My prediction for Sydney:
> > Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st, 
>and
> > 24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
> > My prediction for Brisbane:
> > Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th, heaviest
> > falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly 
>dry
> > again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
> > between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
> >
> > > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Hi all,
> > >
> > > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited 
>rain
> > > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see 
>what
> > > comes out of it.
> > >
> > > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
> > > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
> > significant
> > > rainfalls before then.
> > >
> > > Jimmy
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Dave Ellem,
> > > Wollongbar,
> > > Northern Rivers,
> > > NE NSW
> > > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> > >
> > >  
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>your
> > >  message.
> > >  
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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</x-flowed>
From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 14:10:05 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


a 'mini tornado' lolololol,
 i get one of  those everytime i pull the plug out of the bathtub.

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Gaul" <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:17 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Mini Tornado


> A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland yesterday
> morning as an active cold front moved over the area. As it was only a mini
> tornado only localised damage occured.
>
> JohnGaul
> NZTS
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 19:44:25 +1300
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> (Rune) Unless he is saying it will rain almost continuously on those
> consecutive days.  To only end up with 40mm after all that it's going to
be
> a miserable and very drizzly November.
I said probably more than 40mm

> Can you clarify your forecasts a
> little more Ken, do you mean there will be at least a drop of rain in
Sydney
> from the 7-10th etc, or that all of those days will experience a
significant
> fall?  Either way I do hope some 'weather' returns to Sydney, every time
> I've seen the word DRY in a forecast I have an epileptic type fit.
Whatever I say will be scoffed at, ridiculed and dismantled word for word to
be proved wrong, so no, I have ideas but won't stick my neck out on this
forum any more re amounts.

> >From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
> >Hi Ken...
> >I am interssted in your November forecast for Sydney.
> >More than 40 mm in November occurs in about 80% of years so that's a
> >fairly safe bet.
Then I'm going to be 80% correct there, which is okay isn't it?

> >Given your stated "1 day out"is still accurate philosphy that means that
> >as long as rains between 1st and 4th, 6th to 11th, 15th to 22nd and 23rd
> >to 29th you can claim being correct.  That leaves just 6 days!
> >if it rains on 5th, 12th,13th, 14th or 30th we will let you know...
> >Top forecast - really sticking your neck out here. You must be pulling
> >our legs !!! Or maybe New Zealanders are just more gullible.
The point is, there's rain coming. Even other members on this list reckon
so. The metservice puts out statements like today's.."Cloud surges along the
NSW coast behind a cold front causing light showers.." I don't see why I
should be flamed for being as vague as them. And they're professionals! I'm
not claiming to be God or any better than anyone else. All I'm saying is
that using the moon it is possible to come up with longrange forecasts that
are useful.

> (Tony)OK, what about Melbourne?
> I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.
March? I have to disagree. I don't think much rain in Melbourne that month.

All
I'll try to be more specific for those who say my 24 hour error is
unacceptable.
For Sydney, I believe the potential for rain will be between these times..
afternoon of 1st-evening of 2nd
Afternoon of 7th-early morning of 9th
Early morning 15th-early morning 17th, early morning 19th - morning of 21st
afternoon of 23rd-afternoon of 25th, morning of 27th-afternoon of 28th
One can forecast for any other town in Australia and for any time in the
future using the same method. All I need is the longitude of the location.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com


> > > Hi all
> > > I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least),
in
> > > November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
> > > My prediction for Sydney:
> > > Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th,
16th-21st,
> >and
> > > 24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
> > > My prediction for Brisbane:
> > > Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th,
heaviest
> > > falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly
> >dry
> > > again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around
150mm
> > > between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
> > >
> > > > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi all,
> > > >
> > > > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited
> >rain
> > > > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see
> >what
> > > > comes out of it.
> > > >
> > > > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but
quite
> > > > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
> > > significant
> > > > rainfalls before then.
> > > >
> > > > Jimmy
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dave Ellem,
> > > > Wollongbar,
> > > > Northern Rivers,
> > > > NE NSW
> > > > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> > > >
> > > >
> >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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From: "Craig Arthur" <craig_arthur at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 16:55:14 +1000
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Ken,

The Weather Company *is not* metservice. The Weather Company (which runs
Weatherzone) has a large number of media and internet clients. The quote
you took is used to describe the satellite image - it  is used by
television presenters during the nightly news, or on various websites. Our
scripts are written to be informative to the general public, entertaining
and enlightening. They are not designed nor intended to be an exact
forecast for rainfall amount or location.
The Weather Company also provides four day forecasts for over 180 locations
around Australia, including max and min temps, precis, rainfall probability
and amount. These are available on several Australian agricultural
websites. These would serve the purpose you are trying to liken the scripts
to.

Please don't mistake a satellite script for a forecast for an individual
location.

Regards,
Craig Arthur

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Saturday, 26 October 2002 16:44
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming




> (Rune) Unless he is saying it will rain almost continuously on those
> consecutive days.  To only end up with 40mm after all that it's going to
be
> a miserable and very drizzly November.
I said probably more than 40mm

> Can you clarify your forecasts a
> little more Ken, do you mean there will be at least a drop of rain in
Sydney
> from the 7-10th etc, or that all of those days will experience a
significant
> fall?  Either way I do hope some 'weather' returns to Sydney, every time
> I've seen the word DRY in a forecast I have an epileptic type fit.
Whatever I say will be scoffed at, ridiculed and dismantled word for word
to
be proved wrong, so no, I have ideas but won't stick my neck out on this
forum any more re amounts.

> >From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
> >Hi Ken...
> >I am interssted in your November forecast for Sydney.
> >More than 40 mm in November occurs in about 80% of years so that's a
> >fairly safe bet.
Then I'm going to be 80% correct there, which is okay isn't it?

> >Given your stated "1 day out"is still accurate philosphy that means that
> >as long as rains between 1st and 4th, 6th to 11th, 15th to 22nd and 23rd
> >to 29th you can claim being correct.  That leaves just 6 days!
> >if it rains on 5th, 12th,13th, 14th or 30th we will let you know...
> >Top forecast - really sticking your neck out here. You must be pulling
> >our legs !!! Or maybe New Zealanders are just more gullible.
The point is, there's rain coming. Even other members on this list reckon
so. The metservice puts out statements like today's.."Cloud surges along
the
NSW coast behind a cold front causing light showers.." I don't see why I
should be flamed for being as vague as them. And they're professionals! I'm
not claiming to be God or any better than anyone else. All I'm saying is
that using the moon it is possible to come up with longrange forecasts that
are useful.

> (Tony)OK, what about Melbourne?
> I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.
March? I have to disagree. I don't think much rain in Melbourne that month.

All
I'll try to be more specific for those who say my 24 hour error is
unacceptable.
For Sydney, I believe the potential for rain will be between these times..
afternoon of 1st-evening of 2nd
Afternoon of 7th-early morning of 9th
Early morning 15th-early morning 17th, early morning 19th - morning of 21st
afternoon of 23rd-afternoon of 25th, morning of 27th-afternoon of 28th
One can forecast for any other town in Australia and for any time in the
future using the same method. All I need is the longitude of the location.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com


> > > Hi all
> > > I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least),
in
> > > November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
> > > My prediction for Sydney:
> > > Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th,
16th-21st,
> >and
> > > 24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
> > > My prediction for Brisbane:
> > > Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th,
heaviest
> > > falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th,
mostly
> >dry
> > > again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around
150mm
> > > between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
> > >
> > > > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Hi all,
> > > >
> > > > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited
> >rain
> > > > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll
see
> >what
> > > > comes out of it.
> > > >
> > > > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but
quite
> > > > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
> > > significant
> > > > rainfalls before then.
> > > >
> > > > Jimmy
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Dave Ellem,
> > > > Wollongbar,
> > > > Northern Rivers,
> > > > NE NSW
> > > > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> > > >
> > > >
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> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 16:48:28 +0930
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Hi Ken,

I'm not going to enter this debate on the Moon vs. weather. What I would
like to know is why you keep referring to the term astrology rather then
astronomy?

I always thought astronomy was the study of the planets/stars & what makes
them "tick" & astrology was the "belief" that the stars/moon etc. could
predict one's future.

Now I can see/accept that you are "predicting a future" as such, but that's
based on the moons actual gravitational force on the Earth's atmosphere &
not simply "where the Moon is now according to the charts" stuff.

I personally don't believe in astrology myself; how a far off star (the next
closest star to Earth, apart from the Sun, being 4.3 light years or
9,454,492,800,000 km away) will be able to affect my life & the choices I
make, but I do accept that the Sun & Moon (& to some degree the other
planets in *our* solar system) can have an affect on a persons being (seeing
that a human's body is mostly water) & how we may feel & behave. We can see
this affect/influence even more so on the Earth's "body of waters" (oceans)
that we call tides & also in the atmosphere to the same effect. So I tend to
agree that the Moon can/does have a part to play in the weather. How much so
I'll leave that to "you's with more smarts then me" to sort it out.

All I'm asking is why the term astrology over astronomy? :)

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer

Ps. Oh yeh, by the way... You know there are 13 Zodiac signs & not 12 like
most people think?  :P  lol


----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 5:14 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Tony
> Whilst I appreciate the attention given to this exercise, I agree with you
> that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because the variables are
too
> great. It's like trying to prove an unhappy childhood causes someone to
rob
> a bank. We do not yet have a science that can adequately measure what the
> atmosphere does, just as we don't have any handle on the moon other than
> what astrology will tell you. This does not disprove moon theory - only
> shows up our inadequate science. Both airtide and moon have not been
> considered worthy of heavy research investment. The kind of analysis some
> are doing re phases/cyclones is just statistical playing around the edges,
> but not to say that that it may fruitless. But I won't hold my breath. I
> think all three outcomes you described below will be relevant.
> Ken



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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: wv images
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 18:26:18 +1000
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Many thanks, Kevin. I'm now archiving them (and the irenh images) each 3
hours for both east and west Autralia.

I'm still hunting for wv images with an archive.

Cheers

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Kevin Phyland
> Sent: Friday, 25 October, 2002 5:20 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: wv images
>
>
>
>
> Hi Laurier,
>
> These are CIMSS but they don't have any overlays that I'm aware of:
>
> http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxwvgms5e.GIF
>
> Cheers,
> Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
>
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
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From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 04:26:55 EDT
Subject: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows AU sub 10501
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Hi all <BR>
I need some help for my daughter Katie who is in year 4 .<BR>
She has told me she needs the max and min temps for Melbourne from monday 21/10/02 to friday 25/10/02 inclusive , and a discription of the weather for each of these days. Im sorry to ask for this but I just found out its this weeks home work due monday. Does anyone have this info or know where I can get it tonight ?<BR>
<BR>
cheers Dennis Cottle <BR>
</FONT></HTML>

</x-html>

From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 17:59:52 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Oh, isn't that cute... a "mini" tornado doing it's own localised damage.

So how big does a "mini" tornado have to be before it can run & play with
the other tornadoes?

:P

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Gaul" <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:17 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Mini Tornado


> A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland yesterday
> morning as an active cold front moved over the area. As it was only a mini
> tornado only localised damage occured.
>
> JohnGaul
> NZTS



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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 22:22:18 +1300
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Craig
I stand corrected
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Craig Arthur" <craig_arthur at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 7:55 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: rain coming


> Ken,
>
> The Weather Company *is not* metservice. The Weather Company (which runs
> Weatherzone) has a large number of media and internet clients. The quote
> you took is used to describe the satellite image - it  is used by
> television presenters during the nightly news, or on various websites. Our
> scripts are written to be informative to the general public, entertaining
> and enlightening. They are not designed nor intended to be an exact
> forecast for rainfall amount or location.
> The Weather Company also provides four day forecasts for over 180
locations
> around Australia, including max and min temps, precis, rainfall
probability
> and amount. These are available on several Australian agricultural
> websites. These would serve the purpose you are trying to liken the
scripts
> to.
>
> Please don't mistake a satellite script for a forecast for an individual
> location.
>
> Regards,
> Craig Arthur
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Saturday, 26 October 2002 16:44
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
>
>
>
>
> > (Rune) Unless he is saying it will rain almost continuously on those
> > consecutive days.  To only end up with 40mm after all that it's going to
> be
> > a miserable and very drizzly November.
> I said probably more than 40mm
>
> > Can you clarify your forecasts a
> > little more Ken, do you mean there will be at least a drop of rain in
> Sydney
> > from the 7-10th etc, or that all of those days will experience a
> significant
> > fall?  Either way I do hope some 'weather' returns to Sydney, every time
> > I've seen the word DRY in a forecast I have an epileptic type fit.
> Whatever I say will be scoffed at, ridiculed and dismantled word for word
> to
> be proved wrong, so no, I have ideas but won't stick my neck out on this
> forum any more re amounts.
>
> > >From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
> > >Hi Ken...
> > >I am interssted in your November forecast for Sydney.
> > >More than 40 mm in November occurs in about 80% of years so that's a
> > >fairly safe bet.
> Then I'm going to be 80% correct there, which is okay isn't it?
>
> > >Given your stated "1 day out"is still accurate philosphy that means
that
> > >as long as rains between 1st and 4th, 6th to 11th, 15th to 22nd and
23rd
> > >to 29th you can claim being correct.  That leaves just 6 days!
> > >if it rains on 5th, 12th,13th, 14th or 30th we will let you know...
> > >Top forecast - really sticking your neck out here. You must be pulling
> > >our legs !!! Or maybe New Zealanders are just more gullible.
> The point is, there's rain coming. Even other members on this list reckon
> so. The metservice puts out statements like today's.."Cloud surges along
> the
> NSW coast behind a cold front causing light showers.." I don't see why I
> should be flamed for being as vague as them. And they're professionals!
I'm
> not claiming to be God or any better than anyone else. All I'm saying is
> that using the moon it is possible to come up with longrange forecasts
that
> are useful.
>
> > (Tony)OK, what about Melbourne?
> > I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.
> March? I have to disagree. I don't think much rain in Melbourne that
month.
>
> All
> I'll try to be more specific for those who say my 24 hour error is
> unacceptable.
> For Sydney, I believe the potential for rain will be between these times..
> afternoon of 1st-evening of 2nd
> Afternoon of 7th-early morning of 9th
> Early morning 15th-early morning 17th, early morning 19th - morning of
21st
> afternoon of 23rd-afternoon of 25th, morning of 27th-afternoon of 28th
> One can forecast for any other town in Australia and for any time in the
> future using the same method. All I need is the longitude of the location.
> Ken Ring
> www.predictweather.com
>
>
> > > > Hi all
> > > > I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least),
> in
> > > > November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
> > > > My prediction for Sydney:
> > > > Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th,
> 16th-21st,
> > >and
> > > > 24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
> > > > My prediction for Brisbane:
> > > > Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th,
> heaviest
> > > > falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th,
> mostly
> > >dry
> > > > again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around
> 150mm
> > > > between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
> > > > Ken
> > > > www.predictweather.com
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
> > > > Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
> > > >
> > > > > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Hi all,
> > > > >
> > > > > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited
> > >rain
> > > > > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll
> see
> > >what
> > > > > comes out of it.
> > > > >
> > > > > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but
> quite
> > > > > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
> > > > significant
> > > > > rainfalls before then.
> > > > >
> > > > > Jimmy
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Dave Ellem,
> > > > > Wollongbar,
> > > > > Northern Rivers,
> > > > > NE NSW
> > > > > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> >
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>

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 19:49:34 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
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<x-flowed>
At 07:44 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

> > (Tony)OK, what about Melbourne?
> > I'm tipping the drought to break around March 2003.
>March? I have to disagree. I don't think much rain in Melbourne that month.

OK, name your month for rain in Melbourne.  I'll be interested to see how 
we go.  Maybe all the Melbournites should join in and we have a "closest to 
the pin" competition. :)

Seriously, I would like your forecast Ken, this far out, it will be 
interesting to see what happens.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 19:51:38 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
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<x-flowed>
At 04:48 PM 26/10/2002 +0930, you wrote:

>that we call tides & also in the atmosphere to the same effect. So I tend to
>agree that the Moon can/does have a part to play in the weather. How much so
>I'll leave that to "you's with more smarts then me" to sort it out.

Agreed, and this is why Ken's theory deserves some consideration and 
scientific study.

>Ps. Oh yeh, by the way... You know there are 13 Zodiac signs & not 12 like
>most people think?  :P  lol

Sign of the Spider?  I read something about that once, and I fell just 
outside the spider's range...

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 19:53:59 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Hi 
Dennis</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>This 
seems to be a perennial parental problem and highlights a real hole in the 
weather information available on the web. While extremely detailed data is 
available for the past 24 hours or so is available in abundance, as is climatic 
data, it's nearly impossible to find out data for the past week or month. I plan 
to rectify this on Australian Weather News by having a section, similar to the 
Auto Weather Stations clickable map, where you can get all the max and min temp 
and rainfall data for the past few months, but it'll be a while before I 
complete the programming to make it happen.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002></SPAN><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT 
face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>In the 
meantime, the information is available for the past couple of weeks at <A 
href="http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/">http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/</A>&nbsp;if you 
go digging.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>To 
save you the trouble, here are the max and mins and a quick summary of the 
weather from the synoptic reports. These are for the Bureau's Regional Office in 
central Melbourne.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Monday 
21: max 18.0 min 10.9&nbsp;&nbsp;0 rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. &nbsp;Fine, cloudy, 
light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Tuesday 22: 20.4 &nbsp;9.7 &nbsp;0 rainfall 24 hrs to 
9am.&nbsp;&nbsp;Mostly overcast, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Wed 
23: 15.6 &nbsp;10.5&nbsp; 6.4mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Rain or showers most of 
the day with some hail and a thunderstorm during the 
afternoon.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Thurs 
24: 18.6 &nbsp;8.0 &nbsp;7.4mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Mostly overcast with rain 
late evening, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Fri 
25: 17.0&nbsp; 11.0 &nbsp;2.6mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Rain until around 6am 
then overcast, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Let me 
know whether we get a gold star or an elephant stamp.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>
<P><FONT size=2>Laurier Williams<BR>Australian Weather News<BR><A 
href="http://www.australianweathernews.com/" 
target=_blank>http://www.australianweathernews.com</A><BR>&nbsp;</FONT> 
</P></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of 
  </B>dencot1 at aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, 26 October, 2002 6:27 
  PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: re. 
  min max temp help<BR><BR></FONT></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 
  face=Arial size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Hi all <BR>I need some help for my 
  daughter Katie who is in year 4 .<BR>She has told me she needs the max and min 
  temps for Melbourne from monday 21/10/02 to friday 25/10/02 inclusive , and a 
  discription of the weather for each of these days. Im sorry to ask for this 
  but I just found out its this weeks home work due monday. Does anyone have 
  this info or know where I can get it tonight ?<BR><BR>cheers Dennis Cottle 
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:04:53 +1300
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


At 12:10 26/10/02 +1000, you wrote:
>> A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland...
>
>Now come on John, that's just asking for it here! ;)
>
>Exciting news all the same though. Even better when the damage is
>minimal.
>
>Andrew.
>
Hi Andrew
I worded it that way because I know that you, myself and a lot of others
hate that term which the media seem to use with regards to any events of
tornados happening here in New Zealand and Australia. 
With Ken Ring from this side of the ditch getting members of this Aussie
list "stirred up" about his moon predictions of the drought, I thought I
would throw in an alternative and mention something about the tornado that
passed over Auckland yesterday, saying it was mini, just for some reaction
on this list!!! 


JohnGaul
NZTS
 




JohnGaul
NZ Thunderstorm soc

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:11:39 +1300
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Hi Paul
Thanks for not entering the debate(grin). To reply to you, you may be
unaware that astronomy was once called astrology. The old astronomers like
Copernicus through to Kepler called themselves astrologers. So did Galileo,
Benjamin Franklin, Laplace and arguably the greatest scientist in history;
Sir Isaac Newton. Even Flamstead, the first Astronomer Royale, who founded
the Royal Observatory in Greenwich, was an astrologer, and a horoscope wheel
in his honour still adorns the building. The astrology you speak of, where
stars are used to predict one's future, is only a branch, and the focus
these days on that aspect has been used to discredit what was once pure
astronomical science, which had the moon playing a starring role.
Unfortunately these days, astronomers don't have much interest in the moon.
I am not predicting the future, as you say. I am merely pointing out the
potential for rain occurring at certain times. This is based on probability
and proximity. To look at a train timetable and say the train left the
station at 4pm and is very likely to reach Bankstown at 4.30 or whatever, is
predicting the future too. Given sound evidence one can easily project
forward without getting into airy-fairy belief systems. In fact the whole
point of scientific research is to be able to predict. Astrology does still
imply astronomy but I would call what I am doing more astronomy. I depart
from astro-meteorologists where they place equal emphasis on all planets
when predicting weather - I only use the moon, but I respect their right to
another perspective.
Some useful computer programs that one can use to plot the movements of the
moon are astronomical, like Starry Sky and Red Shift. But I also use the
astrological Solar Maps and Janus2 because they are brilliant tools.
The horoscopes in the newspapers are rubbish and not true astrology, which
actually covers many aspects of living. If you go to a nonwestern country
you will find that astrology governs gardening, architecture, medicine and
most aspects of business. It is a fact of history that without thousands of
years of astrology we would not have today's science.
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com


---- Original Message -----
From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 8:18 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Hi Ken,
>
> I'm not going to enter this debate on the Moon vs. weather. What I would
> like to know is why you keep referring to the term astrology rather then
> astronomy?
>
> I always thought astronomy was the study of the planets/stars & what makes
> them "tick" & astrology was the "belief" that the stars/moon etc. could
> predict one's future.
>
> Now I can see/accept that you are "predicting a future" as such, but
that's
> based on the moons actual gravitational force on the Earth's atmosphere &
> not simply "where the Moon is now according to the charts" stuff.
>
> I personally don't believe in astrology myself; how a far off star (the
next
> closest star to Earth, apart from the Sun, being 4.3 light years or
> 9,454,492,800,000 km away) will be able to affect my life & the choices I
> make, but I do accept that the Sun & Moon (& to some degree the other
> planets in *our* solar system) can have an affect on a persons being
(seeing
> that a human's body is mostly water) & how we may feel & behave. We can
see
> this affect/influence even more so on the Earth's "body of waters"
(oceans)
> that we call tides & also in the atmosphere to the same effect. So I tend
to
> agree that the Moon can/does have a part to play in the weather. How much
so
> I'll leave that to "you's with more smarts then me" to sort it out.
>
> All I'm asking is why the term astrology over astronomy? :)
>
> Regs. Paul.
> (Stargazer)
> http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
>
> Ps. Oh yeh, by the way... You know there are 13 Zodiac signs & not 12 like
> most people think?  :P  lol
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 5:14 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Tony
> > Whilst I appreciate the attention given to this exercise, I agree with
you
> > that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because the variables are
> too
> > great. It's like trying to prove an unhappy childhood causes someone to
> rob
> > a bank. We do not yet have a science that can adequately measure what
the
> > atmosphere does, just as we don't have any handle on the moon other than
> > what astrology will tell you. This does not disprove moon theory - only
> > shows up our inadequate science. Both airtide and moon have not been
> > considered worthy of heavy research investment. The kind of analysis
some
> > are doing re phases/cyclones is just statistical playing around the
edges,
> > but not to say that that it may fruitless. But I won't hold my breath. I
> > think all three outcomes you described below will be relevant.
> > Ken
>
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:28:51 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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> Of course we can . . . you predict it is going to rain . . .  it rains .
> . . you are correct. . .  it does not rain, you are incorrect.
No, James, a place like Sydney is a big area. If I say rain and it doesn't
in the place where someone is, they'll say I was wrong, when the rain may
very well be falling in some other suburb of the city.

> Do this 365 times over a year, and a pattern will emerge.
I do and it does.

> Equally, you say a full moon = more heat to the ground? An analysis of
> ground temperatures by moon phase should show some relationship!
Indeed. Noteworthy too is that a force 5 hurricane is just now reaching
Mexico - between full moon and last quarter. Obviously another coincidence.

> Why are you discounting the results of an analysis of your theories
> before those results have even been achieved?
Not discounting, just not getting any hopes up. Let's just say that a
certain bias has been displayed on this forum which make me doubt that these
theories are ever going to get much of a sympathetic hearing.

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:40:15 +1300
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> OK, name your month for rain in Melbourne.  I'll be interested to see how
> we go.  Maybe all the Melbournites should join in and we have a "closest
to
> the pin" competition. :)
> Seriously, I would like your forecast Ken, this far out, it will be
> interesting to see what happens.
Fair enough, Tony. You name a month, anywhere, anytime, and I'll give you
the goods from my perspective. We can compare it with the same by anyone
else, if they have the courage to put it on the table alongside mine. But we
would need to set ground rules at the outset. The rules would have to be
what a "dry" day versus a "wet" one meant, because would a day with a bit of
rain, say overnight whilst mostly dry in the daytime be called a wet day?
Also, which part of a city would we be talking about? I get some data from
the airport and some from old newspapers columns.

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini Tornado
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 00:17:08 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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> At 12:10 26/10/02 +1000, John wrote:
> >> A mini-tornado passed over the New Windsor area of Auckland...
Thanks, John, a fine example of moon theory. Whenever a tornado is reported
in the newspaper, and a time is mentioned, it will be observed that the moon
has still to rise or has set. This situation applies, even if the tornado is
at night, the early morning, midday or afternoon. A tornado at night usually
occurs during the new moon, which is a day moon. If the tornado is during
the early morning hours and up to about midday, the moon will be more than
likely in the first quarter. But most tornados occur while the moon is full
and into the last quarter, for this is the period that the sun applies the
most heat to the ground, which creates the perfect conditions for tornado
activity. The Auckland mini-tornado was timed at early afternoon, fitting
the theory nicely.
Those doing moon/TC analyses might like to also look at full moon-last
q/daytime tornado correlations too.
Oh dear, all these coincidences..

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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 21:49:07 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 11:40 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:


> > OK, name your month for rain in Melbourne.  I'll be interested to see how
> > we go.  Maybe all the Melbournites should join in and we have a "closest
>to
> > the pin" competition. :)
> > Seriously, I would like your forecast Ken, this far out, it will be
> > interesting to see what happens.
>Fair enough, Tony. You name a month, anywhere, anytime, and I'll give you
>the goods from my perspective. We can compare it with the same by anyone
>else, if they have the courage to put it on the table alongside mine. But we
>would need to set ground rules at the outset. The rules would have to be
>what a "dry" day versus a "wet" one meant, because would a day with a bit of
>rain, say overnight whilst mostly dry in the daytime be called a wet day?
>Also, which part of a city would we be talking about? I get some data from
>the airport and some from old newspapers columns.

OK, well, Melbourne (CBD) has an annual average rainfall of around 
660mm.  This rainfall is also fairly evenly spread throughout the year, 
though in summer, it tends to be dominated by a small number of heavy rain 
days, while in winter, it comes in dribs and drabs (showers, drizzle, 
etc).  From memory, the airport is a bit drier than the city (I don't 
recall the exact figures).

Doesn't the Bureau consider a "rain day" one with more than 0.2mm 
rainfall?  Sounds good enough to me.

I'm just looking at when the drought might break...

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 22:17:58 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It's nice to see the schools still&nbsp;get the 
parents to&nbsp;do homework&nbsp; :)&nbsp; lol&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>Regs. Paul.<BR>(Stargazer)<BR><A 
href="http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer">http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=wbc at ozemail.com.au href="mailto:wbc at ozemail.com.au">Laurier 
  Williams</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, October 26, 2002 7:23 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: re. min max temp 
  help</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Hi 
  Dennis</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>This 
  seems to be a perennial parental problem and highlights a real hole in the 
  weather information available on the web. While extremely detailed data is 
  available for the past 24 hours or so is available in abundance, as is 
  climatic data, it's nearly impossible to find out data for the past week or 
  month. I plan to rectify this on Australian Weather News by having a section, 
  similar to the Auto Weather Stations clickable map, where you can get all the 
  max and min temp and rainfall data for the past few months, but it'll be a 
  while before I complete the programming to make it happen.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002></SPAN><SPAN 
  class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>In 
  the meantime, the information is available for the past couple of weeks at <A 
  href="http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/">http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/</A>&nbsp;if you 
  go digging.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>To 
  save you the trouble, here are the max and mins and a quick summary of the 
  weather from the synoptic reports. These are for the Bureau's Regional Office 
  in central Melbourne.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Monday 21: max 18.0 min 10.9&nbsp;&nbsp;0 rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. 
  &nbsp;Fine, cloudy, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Tuesday 22: 20.4 &nbsp;9.7 &nbsp;0 rainfall 24 hrs to 
  9am.&nbsp;&nbsp;Mostly overcast, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Wed 
  23: 15.6 &nbsp;10.5&nbsp; 6.4mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Rain or showers most 
  of the day with some hail and a thunderstorm during the 
  afternoon.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Thurs 24: 18.6 &nbsp;8.0 &nbsp;7.4mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Mostly 
  overcast with rain late evening, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Fri 
  25: 17.0&nbsp; 11.0 &nbsp;2.6mm rainfall 24 hrs to 9am. Rain until around 6am 
  then overcast, light winds</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Let 
  me know whether we get a gold star or an elephant stamp.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=999003009-26102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>
  <P><FONT size=2>Laurier Williams<BR>Australian Weather News<BR><A 
  href="http://www.australianweathernews.com/" 
  target=_blank>http://www.australianweathernews.com</A><BR>&nbsp;</FONT> 
  </P></FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
    <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
    aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
    [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of 
    </B>dencot1 at aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, 26 October, 2002 6:27 
    PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: re. 
    min max temp help<BR><BR></FONT></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT 
    lang=0 face=Arial size=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Hi all <BR>I need some help for 
    my daughter Katie who is in year 4 .<BR>She has told me she needs the max 
    and min temps for Melbourne from monday 21/10/02 to friday 25/10/02 
    inclusive , and a discription of the weather for each of these days. Im 
    sorry to ask for this but I just found out its this weeks home work due 
    monday. Does anyone have this info or know where I can get it tonight 
    ?<BR><BR>cheers Dennis Cottle 
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></FONT></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Phils No Subject Email.
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:43:55 +1000
X-Mailer: KMail [version 1.2]
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Was that particular email containing a virus? I didn't get to see the name or 
extension.
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Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:46:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Thanks Anthony and Ken for the comments. Hopefully we'll send some rains down.

Jimmy Deguara

At 12:19 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:
>Hi all
>I believe the drought is due to be broken (or broken into at least), in
>November, as I posted on 24/7/02.
>My prediction for Sydney:
>Sydney is likely to see rain on Nov. 2nd/3rd, then 7th-10th, 16th-21st, and
>24th-28th.  I would expect over 40mm to fall in November.
>My prediction for Brisbane:
>Brisbane will see rain Oct. 30th off and on till November 20th, heaviest
>falls around Oct. 30th, Nov 4th and Nov. 11th. After Nov. 20th, mostly dry
>again till Dec. 18th. I would expect Brisbane to get about around 150mm
>between 30/10/02 and 20/11/02
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dave Ellem" <stormboy2003 at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, October 26, 2002 11:18 AM
>Subject: aus-wx: Possible rain event in QLD
>
>
> > Jimmy's email's not working, so he asked me to pass this on.
> >
> >
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > It looks as though the SE Qld region is heading for a long awaited rain
> > event. AVN models are picking this up for early next week. We'll see what
> > comes out of it.
> >
> > I know the predictions are for drought until March next year but quite
> > frankly, I do believe there will be at least a reprieve of some
>significant
> > rainfalls before then.
> >
> > Jimmy
> >
> >
> >
> > Dave Ellem,
> > Wollongbar,
> > Northern Rivers,
> > NE NSW
> > http://www.lexicon.net/stormboy2002/
> >
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> >  message.
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> >
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 09:44:16 +1300
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Melbourne potential for rain in November
14th pm-17th am
23rd am - 25th am
27th pm - 28th pm
otherwise mostly dry

Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

Does anyone have a rundown of monthly average rainfall figures for each
month for Melbourne?


----- Original Message -----
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 12:49 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming


> At 11:40 PM 26/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:
>
>
> > > OK, name your month for rain in Melbourne.  I'll be interested to see
how
> > > we go.  Maybe all the Melbournites should join in and we have a
"closest
> >to
> > > the pin" competition. :)
> > > Seriously, I would like your forecast Ken, this far out, it will be
> > > interesting to see what happens.
> >Fair enough, Tony. You name a month, anywhere, anytime, and I'll give you
> >the goods from my perspective. We can compare it with the same by anyone
> >else, if they have the courage to put it on the table alongside mine. But
we
> >would need to set ground rules at the outset. The rules would have to be
> >what a "dry" day versus a "wet" one meant, because would a day with a bit
of
> >rain, say overnight whilst mostly dry in the daytime be called a wet day?
> >Also, which part of a city would we be talking about? I get some data
from
> >the airport and some from old newspapers columns.
>
> OK, well, Melbourne (CBD) has an annual average rainfall of around
> 660mm.  This rainfall is also fairly evenly spread throughout the year,
> though in summer, it tends to be dominated by a small number of heavy rain
> days, while in winter, it comes in dribs and drabs (showers, drizzle,
> etc).  From memory, the airport is a bit drier than the city (I don't
> recall the exact figures).
>
> Doesn't the Bureau consider a "rain day" one with more than 0.2mm
> rainfall?  Sounds good enough to me.
>
> I'm just looking at when the drought might break...
>
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
>
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From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Drought breaker
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 09:18:46 +1100
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'll jump in and agree with Tony. Just a heart felt 
thing though and nothing to back it up with. Just told a friend the other day 
that I reckoned around March/April. Dunno why.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.5]
From: "T Middleton" <anvil_industries at hotmail.com>
Bcc: 
Subject: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 21:58:02 +0000
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<x-flowed>
hi all,
There was storms in SEQ last night (Sat.26th),Ben Quinn was out chasing and 
managed to capture this AWESOME CG in the Caboolture/Kilcoy area. Great 
Stuff Ben.
http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/cg_big.jpg
Anthony Cornelius may also have captured something from these storms 
also....

cheers, TM

Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils




_________________________________________________________________
Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!  Try MSN. 
http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/2monthsfree.asp

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 07:01:10 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Phils No Subject Email.
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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If you mean this Phil (Hong Kong), the last I sent to the list was an 
answer to Tony Middleton on 24th October with the same subject as Tony's 
posting.  I am also pretty religious about never sending without a 
subject.  So any e-mail purporting to come from me with no subject is 
almost certainly sent by a virus from some other location.
I can't ever recall seeing the other Phil (Adelaide) posting without a 
subject either.
Meanwhile, having been inactive for a few days, I have 201 e-mails to 
either wade through or delete.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 23:43:55 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: Phils No Subject Email.

> Was that particular email containing a virus? I didn't get to see the
> name or 
> extension.
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> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 07:32:04 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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As a teacher, when I set this kind of work, it is always set BEFORE the 
period of time in question begins so that the kids have an exercise of 
looking up a very small amount of information daily.  
However, now my own (Grade 7) son frustrates the life out of me by 
starting work on a lengthy project the night before it is due and then 
expecting Dad to do all the work.  (He doesn't attend the school I teach 
at).
Dennis, you are not alone.

BTW, it was just such a homework assignment - "Cut out the weather map 
from The Sun each morning for one week" when I was in Grade 4 that really 
got me started on this weather kick that I haven't managed to shake off 
yet, nearly fifty years later.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: dencot1 at aol.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sat, 26 Oct 2002 04:26:55 EDT
Subject: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help

> Hi all 
> I need some help for my daughter Katie who is in year 4 .
> She has told me she needs the max and min temps for Melbourne from
> monday 
> 21/10/02 to friday 25/10/02 inclusive , and a discription of the
> weather for 
> each of these days. Im sorry to ask for this but I just found out its
> this 
> weeks home work due monday. Does anyone have this info or know where I
> can 
> get it tonight ?
> 
> cheers Dennis Cottle 
> 

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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Drought breaker
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 11:09:56 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>i reckon around late dec. 
to early feb.......same reason.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>richard</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>naracoorte</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=bussie at netc.net.au href="mailto:bussie at netc.net.au">Bussy</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 27, 2002 8:48 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Drought breaker</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'll jump in and agree with Tony. Just a heart 
  felt thing though and nothing to back it up with. Just told a friend the other 
  day that I reckoned around March/April. Dunno why.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 11:42:19 +1000
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Hi all,

Interesting to note that Ken Ring's prediction for Brisbane in October (on
his website) was basically dry, much more so than Sep., with showers around
the 16th and again 26th..28th.  As it happens that is/was just about 100%
spot on.

Looking forward to November's predicted events with interest!

John.

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 13:37:17 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: rain coming
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:44 AM 27/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>Melbourne potential for rain in November
>14th pm-17th am
>23rd am - 25th am
>27th pm - 28th pm
>otherwise mostly dry

I've saved your message, but couldn't get onto the BoM for some accurate 
rainfall averages.  However, I do know that Melbourne's rainfall is very 
evenly distributed all year round with an average of a little over 50mm 
each month.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 13:39:45 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Drought breaker
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:18 AM 27/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:

>I'll jump in and agree with Tony. Just a heart felt thing though and 
>nothing to back it up with. Just told a friend the other day that I 
>reckoned around March/April. Dunno why.

Probably experience thrown in with the "bushman's gut feeling"? :)  I 
remember the 82-83 drought breaking in March, and was born after a drought 
which broke at the end of April.  El Nino events (which are a factor in 
droughts in Australia) tend to dissipate around March.

However, let's see what Ken comes up with.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 13:42:47 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane rain - how good was Ken...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 11:42 AM 27/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:

>Hi all,
>
>Interesting to note that Ken Ring's prediction for Brisbane in October (on
>his website) was basically dry, much more so than Sep., with showers around
>the 16th and again 26th..28th.  As it happens that is/was just about 100%
>spot on.

Interesting point.  I'm looking forward to seeing how Ken's predictions 
compare with the actual conditions we get.  Ken's predictions for November 
in Melbourne are precisely what one would expect under the current weather 
patterns, so it may have to wait a while, before we can draw any 
conclusions from Melbourne obs.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 17:54:50 +1300
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: aus-wx: NZ Tornado
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A tornado touched down SE of Christchurch early this afternoon around the
Lincoln area.
It didn't look mini to me
Details on it later



JohnGaul
NZTS


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From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 16:45:57 +1100
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I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions are
below.

If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large drop in
surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a corresponding
dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.  Where is
that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that particular
moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and known that
by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in the
atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical development of
this theory...law?


Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 21:05:59 +1300
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More excellent examples today of low atmospheric tide as caused by the moon:
An afternoon tornado in Christchurch in the full-last q interval
A mighty hailstorm in Christchurch right at IC time of moon(dead low
airtide)
A downpour in Auckland right at IC time.
To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric pressure
as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have missed
the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from the
Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It is
the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour of an
enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With atmospheric
pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of the
sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the cold
of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from atmospheric
pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking about.
Ken
www.predictweather.com


----- Original Message -----
From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions are
> below.
>
> If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large drop
in
> surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a corresponding
> dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.  Where is
> that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
particular
> moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and known
that
> by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in the
> atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical development of
> this theory...law?
>
>
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 18:26:35 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Leslie Muir <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
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<x-flowed>
Just a small thing to clear up ,

You say,
 >Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It is
the VOLUME of air that changes

Its been a while since i have done gas chemistry and gas physics, but i 
thought volume and pressure are related. Doing as you say, we should forget 
atmospheric pressure entirely, but aren't they related

Also I'm wondering just how much of a difference this volume change is, 
especially the height difference. As just how much "closer" is the cold of 
space. And just how much of a difference it makes

Les
lcm at maths.uq.edu.au
s355334 at student.uq.edu.au

At 06:05 PM 27/10/2002, you wrote:
>More excellent examples today of low atmospheric tide as caused by the moon:
>An afternoon tornado in Christchurch in the full-last q interval
>A mighty hailstorm in Christchurch right at IC time of moon(dead low
>airtide)
>A downpour in Auckland right at IC time.
>To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric pressure
>as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have missed
>the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from the
>Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
>barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
>Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It is
>the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour of an
>enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With atmospheric
>pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of the
>sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the cold
>of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from atmospheric
>pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking about.
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions are
> > below.
> >
> > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large drop
>in
> > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a corresponding
> > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.  Where is
> > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
>particular
> > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and known
>that
> > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in the
> > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical development of
> > this theory...law?
> >
> >
> > Leslie R. Lemon
> > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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</x-flowed>
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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 19:33:50 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
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<x-flowed>
At 09:05 PM 27/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

>Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It is
>the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour of an
>enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With atmospheric
>pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of the
>sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the cold
>of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from atmospheric
>pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking about.
>Ken

Well, the idea that pressure doesn't change much with the tidal height 
isn't a problem to me, as we have to remember what is causing the ait to 
"collect" in the bulges is (lunar) gravity, which is acting upwards when 
the moon is directly overhead.  While I can't cite any laws of physics or 
chemistry, your assertion does make sense to me.  The gas is merely flowing 
to state of lowest potential energy on a non uniform gravitational field.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 19:46:46 +1100
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(quote directly from the
> Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).


Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
"statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


> To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
pressure
> as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
missed
> the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
the
> Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
It is
> the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
of an
> enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
atmospheric
> pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
of the
> sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
cold
> of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
atmospheric
> pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
about.
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
are
> > below.
> >
> > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
drop
> in
> > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
corresponding
> > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
Where is
> > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> particular
> > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
known
> that
> > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
the
> > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
development of
> > this theory...law?
> >
> >
> > Leslie R. Lemon
> > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> >
> >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
-
> >
>
>
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--
>

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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 19:55:07 +1100
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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Worth a read:
From http://www.astro.oma.be/ICET/bim/text/WG6SLR.htm
With enhancement the global distributed SLR station tracking network and
centimeter or better precision of ranging
measurement, the tidal variations in the geopotential and coordinates of
stations have been recovered by SLR technique more
accurately. These tidal variations contain all of the solid Earth,
oceanic and atmospheric tide contributions and provide a unique method
to directly to estimate Love number independently from traditionally
ones. By adopting the recent ocean tide model and some small corrections
of atmospheric tides, SLR data can be used to estimated the second
degree Love numbers for the semi-diurnal (M2,S2), diurnal (K1,O1),
monthly  (Mm, Mf) and 18.6 year waves. The geocenter tidal variations
can also be
recovered by parameterized estimation from SLR data analyzing.
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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 20:02:07 +1100
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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Also, from http://www.auf.asn.au/groundschool/umodule3.html
Stuff you don't need to know 
•  There is a semi-diurnal atmospheric tide, similar to the oceanic
tide, which is most apparent in the lower latitudes. The tide peaks at
1000 and 2200 hours local solar time, with the minima at 0400 and 1600.
At Cairns, 17°S latitude, the daily minima and maxima are 2 hPa either
side of the mean pressure e.g. 0400 hrs - 1014 hPa; 1000 hrs - 1018 hPa;
1600 hrs - 1014 hPa; 2200 hrs - 1018 hPa. The runway elevation at Cairns
is 10 feet amsl, so that if you left a parked aircraft at 1600 with the
altimeter reading 10 feet, six hours later it would be reading 110 feet
below mean sea level. When making their regular
 pressure reading reports, weather observation stations adjust the
reported QFF according to a 'time of day' table. 
•  There is also a semi-diurnal gravity variation at the Earth's solid
surface, also peaking at 1000 and 2200. A movement of 50 cm from the low
to high earth tide has been ascertained in central Australia.
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Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 20:07:59 +1100
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
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Now this is real interesting.  Have a look at this Ken.
http://www.kilty.com/pressure.htm
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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 20:18:12 +1100
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This is off the top of the head, but there is a standard pressure adjustment
made to remove diurnal tide effect, not a lunar tide effect. If you look at
a barograph trace in most parts of the world from the equator to around
40N/S you'll see that it has peaks at around 10am and 10pm local, and
corresponding troughs around 4am/pm. In stable pressure situations, the
difference between peak and trough is usually around 2hPa. I can't remember
the cause (though it is solar rather than lunar related), but its removal is
desirable to allow a clearer view of pressure variations to be shown. The
resulting pressure variation maps are particularly useful when trying to
work out where a developing low is moving -- it tends to move towards the
direction of greatest pressure falls.

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Sunday, 27 October, 2002 7:47 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> (quote directly from the
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
>
>
> Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
> > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> pressure
> > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> missed
> > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> the
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
> It is
> > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
> of an
> > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> atmospheric
> > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> of the
> > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> cold
> > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> atmospheric
> > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> about.
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> are
> > > below.
> > >
> > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
> drop
> > in
> > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> corresponding
> > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> Where is
> > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > particular
> > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> known
> > that
> > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
> the
> > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> development of
> > > this theory...law?
> > >
> > >
> > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -
> > >
> >
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> --
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 22:20:54 +1300
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Australian Aviation Pilots Manual
Section 1:4 under chapter headed 'Tide Of The Atmosphere'
Full quote:
"In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite noticeable.
Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local solar
time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure variation at
Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure might be
1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide
effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar gravitation,
solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of solar.
The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The atmospheric
tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer 6.2. The
semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal gravity
variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being subject also
to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up and down
by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200 hours."

Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much easier it
would be able to move the air!
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> (quote directly from the
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
>
>
> Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
> > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> pressure
> > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> missed
> > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> the
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
> It is
> > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
> of an
> > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> atmospheric
> > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> of the
> > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> cold
> > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> atmospheric
> > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> about.
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> are
> > > below.
> > >
> > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
> drop
> > in
> > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> corresponding
> > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> Where is
> > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > particular
> > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> known
> > that
> > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
> the
> > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> development of
> > > this theory...law?
> > >
> > >
> > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -
> > >
> >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> --
> >
>
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From: "Paul Mossman" <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 19:03:31 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


So I take it, you missed that chapter Jane ;)

Interesting stuff Ken!

Paul
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:50 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Australian Aviation Pilots Manual
> Section 1:4 under chapter headed 'Tide Of The Atmosphere'
> Full quote:
> "In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite
noticeable.
> Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local solar
> time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure variation at
> Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure might
be
> 1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
> Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the lunar
tide
> effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar
gravitation,
> solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of solar.
> The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The
atmospheric
> tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer 6.2. The
> semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal gravity
> variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being subject
also
> to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up and down
> by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200 hours."
>
> Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much easier it
> would be able to move the air!
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > (quote directly from the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> >
> >
> > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> > pressure
> > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> > missed
> > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> > the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
> > It is
> > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
> > of an
> > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> > of the
> > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> > cold
> > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> > about.
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> > are
> > > > below.
> > > >
> > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
> > drop
> > > in
> > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > corresponding
> > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > Where is
> > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > > particular
> > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> > known
> > > that
> > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
> > the
> > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > development of
> > > > this theory...law?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
> >   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> > --
> > >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 22:40:49 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


The diurnal tide is lunar to solar by 2.5:1.
Whatever the sun does gravitationally upon air, sea or land, the moon does
two and a half times as much.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 10:18 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"


> This is off the top of the head, but there is a standard pressure
adjustment
> made to remove diurnal tide effect, not a lunar tide effect. If you look
at
> a barograph trace in most parts of the world from the equator to around
> 40N/S you'll see that it has peaks at around 10am and 10pm local, and
> corresponding troughs around 4am/pm. In stable pressure situations, the
> difference between peak and trough is usually around 2hPa. I can't
remember
> the cause (though it is solar rather than lunar related), but its removal
is
> desirable to allow a clearer view of pressure variations to be shown. The
> resulting pressure variation maps are particularly useful when trying to
> work out where a developing low is moving -- it tends to move towards the
> direction of greatest pressure falls.
>
> Laurier
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> > Sent: Sunday, 27 October, 2002 7:47 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > (quote directly from the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> >
> >
> > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> > pressure
> > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> > missed
> > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> > the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
> > It is
> > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
> > of an
> > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> > of the
> > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> > cold
> > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> > about.
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> > are
> > > > below.
> > > >
> > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
> > drop
> > > in
> > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > corresponding
> > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > Where is
> > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > > particular
> > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> > known
> > > that
> > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
> > the
> > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > development of
> > > > this theory...law?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
> >   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> > --
> > >
> >
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 22:43:24 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>  >Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
It is
> the VOLUME of air that changes
> I thought volume and pressure are related. Doing as you say, we should
forget
> atmospheric pressure entirely, but aren't they related
Yes. Pressure and volume and temperature are all dependent on each other.
Sometimes the only guide to the volume changing is a drop in temperature.
The high pressures of an anticyclone have been explained by stating that
cooling air from the tropic becomes heavier when descending over the
temperate zones thus giving the higher pressures. But what of low pressures?
If descending cold air causes pressures to be high, then the opposite
situation should apply with rising warm air giving the low pressures.
Meteorological literature is strangely silent on this subject and never
mentions the anomaly betyween the stated cause of the high pressures and the
not explained low pressures; nor has there been an explanation as to why the
air pressure changes in any case, for the atmosphere is there and its
thickness should remain constant and with the same barometric pressures day
in and day out. This we know is not so.
It can be said of meteorology as with other areas of science having
problems, that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. In this instance the
barometric pressure readings are considered infallible.
Yes, the barometer may give atmospheric pressures, but not atmospheric
height. These are not the same; pressures can remain constant day and night,
but the atmosphere can alter in height twice a day as does a sea tide. This
does not happen in unison, because a sea tide is subject to lag, drag and
land masses whereas an atmospheric tide is not.
These atmospheric tides can vary in height by several miles and, unlike sea
tides, cannot be observed - although there are many signs that these tides
do exist, and many sayings which, unwittingly, recognise their existence.

> Also I'm wondering just how much of a difference this volume change is,
> especially the height difference. As just how much "closer" is the cold of
> space. And just how much of a difference it makes
About 20-25%, varying with phase and increasing when the moon is in perigee.
If one considers the useful atmosphere to be 5 miles thick, then the
atmospheric tide may alter as much as one and a quarter miles, or if the
accepted total depth of the atmosphere at about 60 miles is used, then the
tidal difference between a low and a high atmospheric tide could be of the
magnitude of 15 miles. It must be said that these figures are maximum and
relate to the upper levels of the atmosphere where the air is very thin.

Hurricane Kenna, formed between the full moon-last quarter, is now
approaching Mexico.

>
> Les
> lcm at maths.uq.edu.au
> s355334 at student.uq.edu.au
>
> At 06:05 PM 27/10/2002, you wrote:
> >More excellent examples today of low atmospheric tide as caused by the
moon:
> >An afternoon tornado in Christchurch in the full-last q interval
> >A mighty hailstorm in Christchurch right at IC time of moon(dead low
> >airtide)
> >A downpour in Auckland right at IC time.
> >To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
pressure
> >as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
missed
> >the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from the
> >Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> >barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> >Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It
is
> >the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour of
an
> >enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
atmospheric
> >pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of
the
> >sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
cold
> >of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
atmospheric
> >pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking about.
> >Ken
> >www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions are
> > > below.
> > >
> > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
drop
> >in
> > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a corresponding
> > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.  Where
is
> > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> >particular
> > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
known
> >that
> > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
the
> > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
development of
> > > this theory...law?
> > >
> > >
> > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 22:58:24 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Absolutely Tony, thanks for pointing that out. The reason that atmospheric
tides have not been discovered despite being extensive, was because the
natural law of gravitational attraction was not applied to the atmosphere,
whereby the moon and sun individually, or together (depending on the phase
of the moon)attracted the atmosphere towards either or both of them and, the
important point is, they support some of the weight of the atmosphere by
gravitational attraction which in turn does not show up on the barometer.

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:33 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> At 09:05 PM 27/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:
>
> >Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon. It
is
> >the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour of
an
> >enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
atmospheric
> >pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of
the
> >sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
cold
> >of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
atmospheric
> >pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking about.
> >Ken
>
> Well, the idea that pressure doesn't change much with the tidal height
> isn't a problem to me, as we have to remember what is causing the air to
> "collect" in the bulges is (lunar) gravity, which is acting upwards when
> the moon is directly overhead.  While I can't cite any laws of physics or
> chemistry, your assertion does make sense to me.  The gas is merely
flowing
> to state of lowest potential energy on a non uniform gravitational field.
>
> 73 de Tony, VK3JED
> http://vkradio.com
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:08:30 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


18.6 year waves? Wow! That's the exact Nodal Cycle of the moon. Very
interesting..

----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Creswick" <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:55 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Worth a read:
> >From http://www.astro.oma.be/ICET/bim/text/WG6SLR.htm
> With enhancement the global distributed SLR station tracking network and
> centimeter or better precision of ranging
> measurement, the tidal variations in the geopotential and coordinates of
> stations have been recovered by SLR technique more
> accurately. These tidal variations contain all of the solid Earth,
> oceanic and atmospheric tide contributions and provide a unique method
> to directly to estimate Love number independently from traditionally
> ones. By adopting the recent ocean tide model and some small corrections
> of atmospheric tides, SLR data can be used to estimated the second
> degree Love numbers for the semi-diurnal (M2,S2), diurnal (K1,O1),
> monthly  (Mm, Mf) and 18.6 year waves. The geocenter tidal variations
> can also be
> recovered by parameterized estimation from SLR data analyzing.
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:36:28 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Thanks Peter. Not much doubt there about the moon having a major role in
influencing weather. He mentions 356 days. Well, it looks like he is unaware
that 355 days is the lunar year.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Creswick" <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 10:07 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Now this is real interesting.  Have a look at this Ken.
> http://www.kilty.com/pressure.htm
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes1 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 21:22:02 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1106
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G'day Ken, Jane + All,  I wonder if you could let us know who published the
'' Australian Aviation Pilots Manual'' and what year it was published.  I am
curious as I have never heard of it,  nor has any Aviation publication I
have ever come across has mentioned any lunar effect on atmospheric tide. I
am wondering if it may be a very old book that I haven't come across.
Thanks.    Damien.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 7:20 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Australian Aviation Pilots Manual
> Section 1:4 under chapter headed 'Tide Of The Atmosphere'
> Full quote:
> "In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite
noticeable.
> Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local solar
> time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure variation at
> Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure might
be
> 1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
> Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the lunar
tide
> effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar
gravitation,
> solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of solar.
> The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The
atmospheric
> tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer 6.2. The
> semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal gravity
> variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being subject
also
> to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up and down
> by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200 hours."
>
> Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much easier it
> would be able to move the air!
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > (quote directly from the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> >
> >
> > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> > pressure
> > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> > missed
> > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> > the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the horizon.
> > It is
> > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the behaviour
> > of an
> > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> > of the
> > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> > cold
> > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> > about.
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> > are
> > > > below.
> > > >
> > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very large
> > drop
> > > in
> > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > corresponding
> > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > Where is
> > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > > particular
> > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> > known
> > > that
> > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up in
> > the
> > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > development of
> > > > this theory...law?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
> >   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> > --
> > >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:54:12 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Damien
It seems I have a different version to that of Peter. I got mine off the net
some time ago, as, I think, did Peter. See http://www.auf.asn.au/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes1 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 12:22 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> G'day Ken, Jane + All,  I wonder if you could let us know who published
the
> '' Australian Aviation Pilots Manual'' and what year it was published.  I
am
> curious as I have never heard of it,  nor has any Aviation publication I
> have ever come across has mentioned any lunar effect on atmospheric tide.
I
> am wondering if it may be a very old book that I haven't come across.
> Thanks.    Damien.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 7:20 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual
> > Section 1:4 under chapter headed 'Tide Of The Atmosphere'
> > Full quote:
> > "In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite
> noticeable.
> > Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local
solar
> > time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure variation at
> > Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure
might
> be
> > 1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
> > Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the lunar
> tide
> > effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar
> gravitation,
> > solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of
solar.
> > The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The
> atmospheric
> > tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer 6.2.
The
> > semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal gravity
> > variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being subject
> also
> > to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up and
down
> > by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200
hours."
> >
> > Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much easier it
> > would be able to move the air!
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > (quote directly from the
> > > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > >
> > >
> > > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> > > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find this
> > > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> > >
> > > Jane
> > >
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > >
> > > Australian Sky & Weather
> > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> > > pressure
> > > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists have
> > > missed
> > > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly from
> > > the
> > > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the daily
> > > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the
horizon.
> > > It is
> > > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the
behaviour
> > > of an
> > > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > > atmospheric
> > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> > > of the
> > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets
the
> > > cold
> > > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > > atmospheric
> > > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> > > about.
> > > > Ken
> > > > www.predictweather.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and questions
> > > are
> > > > > below.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very
large
> > > drop
> > > > in
> > > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > > corresponding
> > > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > > Where is
> > > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with that
> > > > particular
> > > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed and
> > > known
> > > > that
> > > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up
in
> > > the
> > > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > > development of
> > > > > this theory...law?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
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> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
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> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> > > --
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >  message.
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>
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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:16:59 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken & Paul,

That explains why I couldn't find it - the quote doesn't say LUNAR tide
effect, it says tide effect...........why was lunar included in your
quote? Doesn't say anything about the 2.5:1 figure either.  What is
Section 6.2 that you refer to? The Ekman Spiral?

Quote:
"In the low latitudes a semi-diurnal pressure variation is quite
noticeable. Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200
hours local solar time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semi-diurnal
pressure variation at Cairns is about 2 hPa either side of the mean, i.e
the pressure might be 1015 hPa at 0400, 1019 hPa at 1000, 1015 hPa at
1600 and 1019 hPa at 2200. Meteorologists adjust the daily pressure
observations to remove the tide effect.

The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar gravitation,
solar heating and resonance. The tide is not apparent in latitudes
greater than 50° - 60°. The atmospheric tide is an internal gravity wave
with a 12 hour frequency. The semi-diurnal pressure variation is similar
to the semi-diurnal gravity variations at the earth's solid surface, the
solid earth being subject to tides - the solid tide. A point on the
earth's surface moves up and down by as much as 50 cm, with maximum
gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200 hours"

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
> "In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite
noticeable.
> Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local
solar
> time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure variation
at
> Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure
might be
> 1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
> Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the
lunar tide
> effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar
gravitation,
> solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of
solar.
> The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The
atmospheric
> tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer 6.2.
The
> semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal gravity
> variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being subject
also
> to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up and
down
> by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200
hours."
>
> Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much easier
it
> would be able to move the air!
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > (quote directly from the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the
daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> >
> >
> > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the page
> > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find
this
> > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget atmospheric
> > pressure
> > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists
have
> > missed
> > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly
from
> > the
> > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the
daily
> > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the
horizon.
> > It is
> > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the
behaviour
> > of an
> > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is
out
> > of the
> > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets
the
> > cold
> > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > atmospheric
> > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm talking
> > about.
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > >
> > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and
questions
> > are
> > > > below.
> > > >
> > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very
large
> > drop
> > > in
> > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > corresponding
> > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > Where is
> > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with
that
> > > particular
> > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed
and
> > known
> > > that
> > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows up
in
> > the
> > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > development of
> > > > this theory...law?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
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> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> >
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:30:43 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Interesting stuff! While the moon clearly does have a tidal effect upon
the atmosphere, (it does not surprise me that it does), I think you are
forgetting one important fact. . . .

The earth revolves around an effectively stationary moon once a day ( or
the moon revolves around an effectively stationary earth- which ever way
you want to look at it ;) ). However I cannot see how the phase of the
moon (i.e. the amount illuminated) would have any bearing on the lunar
tidal forces? (except possibly for some interplay between the location
of the sun as in the case of king tides etc. . . .)

Either way your assertion re. TC's will be cleared up tomorrow. However,
I would have thought that if there was a relationship, it would have
shown up in the analysis of this data I did previously as well.

Also, it would be much quicker to examine your previous rain
predictions, rather than looking at future months. It would take at
least 6-7 months of data before a reasonable analysis could be
undertaken, especially due to the nature of your predictions (i.e.
predicting over a period rather than specific dates- not that this is a
bad thing, it just makes a statistical analysis more difficult).

So could you please post at least your previous years predictions, so we
can do a simple statistical analysis?

Cheers

James

p.s. the graphs and excel spreadsheet are still on the web-site. I'm
sorry I did not annotate it very well, but if anyone has any questions
about how it works, please just ask- I did find one little error, the
way I designated different cyclones  . . . I added 10 times the year, to
the cyclone number and then checked if this number changed between
successive reports, well the problem came in 1950 - 1951 where there
were 11 individual cyclones in 1950, so the first cyclone in 1951 and
the last in 1950 had the same "id" number and excel too them as one 306
day long cyclone!!! I have fixed this by simply multiplying the year by
1000 instead, but have not put this on the web yet :) )

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Sunday, 27 October 2002 10:54 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

Hi Damien
It seems I have a different version to that of Peter. I got mine off the
net
some time ago, as, I think, did Peter. See http://www.auf.asn.au/

----- Original Message -----
From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes1 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 12:22 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> G'day Ken, Jane + All,  I wonder if you could let us know who
published
the
> '' Australian Aviation Pilots Manual'' and what year it was published.
I
am
> curious as I have never heard of it,  nor has any Aviation publication
I
> have ever come across has mentioned any lunar effect on atmospheric
tide.
I
> am wondering if it may be a very old book that I haven't come across.
> Thanks.    Damien.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 7:20 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
>
>
> > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual
> > Section 1:4 under chapter headed 'Tide Of The Atmosphere'
> > Full quote:
> > "In the low latitudes a semidiurnal pressure variation is quite
> noticeable.
> > Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local
solar
> > time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semidiurnal pressure
variation at
> > Cairns is about 2 degrees either side of the mean i.e. the pressure
might
> be
> > 1015mb at 0400, 1019mb at 1000, 1015mb at 1600 and 1019mb at 2200.
> > Meteorologists adjust the daily barometric pressure to remove the
lunar
> tide
> > effect. The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar
> gravitation,
> > solar heating and resonance. The lunar factor is 2.5 times that of
solar.
> > The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50-60deg. The
> atmospheric
> > tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. refer
6.2.
The
> > semidiurnal pressure variation is similar  to the semidiurnal
gravity
> > variations at the EARTH'S solid surface, the solid earth being
subject
> also
> > to tides: the SOLID TIDE. A point on the earth's surface moves up
and
down
> > by as much as 50cm with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200
hours."
> >
> > Jane, if the moon moves the water and the land, think how much
easier it
> > would be able to move the air!
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 9:46 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> >
> > > (quote directly from the
> > > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the
daily
> > > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > >
> > >
> > > Can you give the quote (in full context, not excerpted) and the
page
> > > reference, because I can't ever remember seeing it and can't find
this
> > > "statement" that you 'quote' anywhere.
> > >
> > > Jane
> > >
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> > >
> > > Australian Sky & Weather
> > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > > > To answer your question, Leslie, I suggest you forget
atmospheric
> > > pressure
> > > > as it will distract you from the real situation. Meteorologists
have
> > > missed
> > > > the air-tide because their models factor it out (quote directly
from
> > > the
> > > > Australian Aviation Pilots Manual.."meteorologists adjust the
daily
> > > > barometric pressure to remove the lunar tide effect.." ).
> > > > Pressure actually stays the same when the moon goes below the
horizon.
> > > It is
> > > > the VOLUME of air that changes. The mathematical work of the
behaviour
> > > of an
> > > > enclosed gas has been done, decades ago. Think Boyles Law. With
> > > atmospheric
> > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is
out
> > > of the
> > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and
lets
the
> > > cold
> > > > of space come closer to ground level. If you can't get away from
> > > atmospheric
> > > > pressure then you won't have the faintest idea of what I'm
talking
> > > about.
> > > > Ken
> > > > www.predictweather.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Barbara" <gallivant at ozemail.com.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 6:45 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I forwarded this thread to Les Lemon and he comments and
questions
> > > are
> > > > > below.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the moon takes the atmosphere with it then there is a very
large
> > > drop
> > > > in
> > > > > surface atmospheric pressure where the moon isn't and a
> > > corresponding
> > > > > dramatic increase in surface atmospheric pressure where it is.
> > > Where is
> > > > > that drop and rise couplet?  If that occurred each time with
that
> > > > particular
> > > > > moon phase, don't you think meteorologists would have noticed
and
> > > known
> > > > that
> > > > > by now?  I think he needs to demonstrate where the moon shows
up
in
> > > the
> > > > > atmospheric equations of motion.  Where is the mathematical
> > > development of
> > > > > this theory...law?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Leslie R. Lemon
> > > > > Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
> > > > > Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> > > > > Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
> > > > > E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
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> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the
body
of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
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> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> > > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
> > > --
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
 
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Brisbane rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:20:03 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Well the rain certainly made for a bit of a fiasco at the Indy 300 today
with lightning, thunder & bits of race cars everywhere!
Lucky no one was seriously hurt.

:)

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 27, 2002 12:12 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane rain - how good was Ken...


> Hi all,
>
> Interesting to note that Ken Ring's prediction for Brisbane in October (on
> his website) was basically dry, much more so than Sep., with showers
around
> the 16th and again 26th..28th.  As it happens that is/was just about 100%
> spot on.
>
> Looking forward to November's predicted events with interest!
>
> John.
>
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:07:06 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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<div class=Section1>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Well I said I&#8217;d do it tomorrow but this daylight
saving this has me well and truly awake LOL<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Ok, Ken, I have done the analysis on ONLY <b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-weight:bold;mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'>named Cyclones </span></b>which were <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-weight:bold;mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>longer than
4 days</span></b>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Of the 350 cyclones which were named and longer than 4 days,
the following is the breakdown of the moon age <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-weight:bold;mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'>when they
formed</span></b>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Again, this shows no relationship which could not be equally
shown by a random event. <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span
style='font-style:italic;mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>Will you now admit that
there is no evidence of a relationship between moon phase and the formation of
cyclones?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>While I was doing this I also came up with an interesting
histogram for the duration of cyclones!<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>I have put the updated spreadsheet on the net in zipped
format here (This is different from the last):<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><a href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip</a><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp; </span>[4.78Mb]<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span class=GramE><font size=2 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>as</span></font></span><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> I said before,
this is a large excel spreadsheet (~22Mb) and you will need a fairly good
computer to open it.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>James<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>&nbsp;</span>James Holbeach</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>--------------------------------</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Trapdoor Ski Club </span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><st1:place><st1:City><font size=2 face=Arial><span
  style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Mt. Hotham</span></font></st1:City><font
 size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:
 yes'>, </span></font><st1:country-region><font size=2 face=Arial><span
  style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Australia</span></font></st1:country-region></st1:place><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>. 0417 553 757</span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'><a href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</a></span></font><span
style='mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>--------------------------------</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

</div>

</body>

</html>


</x-html>

From: "Paul Rands" <prands at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:14:18 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627
Importance: Normal
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


What a ripper of a pic!

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Rands
Email: prands at optusnet.com.au
ICQ: 137833127 or MSN: Uncle Paul
Web: http://prands.docspages.com/


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of T Middleton
Sent: Sunday, 27 October 2002 08:58
Subject: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


hi all,
There was storms in SEQ last night (Sat.26th),Ben Quinn was out chasing
and 
managed to capture this AWESOME CG in the Caboolture/Kilcoy area. Great 
Stuff Ben.
http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/cg_big.jpg
Anthony Cornelius may also have captured something from these storms 
also....

cheers, TM

Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils




_________________________________________________________________
Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!  Try MSN. 
http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/2monthsfree.asp

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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:19:27 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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<BODY lang=EN-AU style="tab-interval: 36.0pt" vLink=purple link=blue 
bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>hi james,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>can you please do a graph 
showing if the average length of cyclones has increased, decreased or stayed the 
same over the years?.&nbsp; this could be interesting ! ! ! !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>richard</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=james at trapdoor.com.au href="mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au">James 
  Holbeach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, October 27, 2002 11:37 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis 
  #3 . . . .finally!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV class=Section1>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Well I said I’d do it tomorrow but 
  this daylight saving this has me well and truly awake 
  LOL<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Ok, Ken, I have done the analysis 
  on ONLY <B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">named Cyclones 
  </SPAN></B>which were <B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">longer than 4 
  days</SPAN></B>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Of the 350 cyclones which were 
  named and longer than 4 days, the following is the breakdown of the moon age 
  <B style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><SPAN 
  style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">when they 
  formed</SPAN></B>.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif</A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Again, this shows no relationship 
  which could not be equally shown by a random event. <I 
  style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal"><SPAN 
  style="FONT-STYLE: italic; mso-bidi-font-style: normal">Will you now admit 
  that there is no evidence of a relationship between moon phase and the 
  formation of cyclones?</SPAN></I><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">While I was doing this I also came 
  up with an interesting histogram for the duration of 
  cyclones!<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif</A><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">I have put the updated spreadsheet 
  on the net in zipped format here (This is different from the 
  last):<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip</A><SPAN 
  style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>[4.78Mb]<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><SPAN class=GramE><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">as</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT 
  face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> I said 
  before, this is a large excel spreadsheet (~22Mb) and you will need a fairly 
  good computer to open it.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Cheers<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">James<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes"><SPAN 
  style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;</SPAN>James Holbeach</SPAN></FONT><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Trapdoor Ski 
  Club </SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><st1:place><st1:City><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Mt. 
  Hotham</SPAN></FONT></st1:City><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">, 
  </SPAN></FONT><st1:country-region><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">Australia</SPAN></FONT></st1:country-region></st1:place><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">. 0417 553 
  757</SPAN></FONT><SPAN style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes"><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</A></SPAN></FONT><SPAN 
  style="mso-no-proof: yes"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-no-proof: yes">--------------------------------</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P>
  <P class=MsoNormal><FONT face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN 
  style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 22:52:02 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
X-MDRemoteIP: 192.168.0.2
X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has 
aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Paul Rands" <prands at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:14:18 +1100
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!

> What a ripper of a pic!
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
> Paul Rands
> Email: prands at optusnet.com.au
> ICQ: 137833127 or MSN: Uncle Paul
> Web: http://prands.docspages.com/
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of T Middleton
> Sent: Sunday, 27 October 2002 08:58
> Subject: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> 
> 
> hi all,
> There was storms in SEQ last night (Sat.26th),Ben Quinn was out chasing
> and 
> managed to capture this AWESOME CG in the Caboolture/Kilcoy area. Great
> Stuff Ben.
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/cg_big.jpg
> Anthony Cornelius may also have captured something from these storms 
> also....
> 
> cheers, TM
> 
> Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
> Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!  Try MSN. 
> http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/2monthsfree.asp
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
> your_email_address" in the body of your  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Steven Williams" <nzstorm at ihug.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:15:47 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There is a nice picture on the front cover of the 
Christchurch press of a tornado just SE of the city.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html">http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A F1 tornado did minor property damage in Aucklands 
western suburbs friday. Worst affected house had</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>about 2/3 of its roof 
removed.&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:54:09 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


James
No evidence? I'd say that the period 13 days-21 days shows more cyclone
activity than at other points in the phase cycle in your breakdown! Looks
like a question of interpretation here, notwithstanding the excellent effort
you went to in preparing it. Cyclone definition could be a bit too variable.
If you have time I'd like to see someone try tornados as they are much more
specific to a date and time.
> Whenever a tornado is reported in the newspaper, and a time is mentioned,
it will be observed that the moon > has still to rise or has set. This
situation applies, even if the tornado is at night, the early morning,
midday or
> afternoon. A tornado at night usually occurs during the new moon, which is
a day moon. If the tornado is
> during the early morning hours and up to about midday, the moon will be
more than likely in the first quarter. > But most tornados occur while the
moon is full and into the last quarter, for this is the period that the sun
> applies the most heat to the ground, which creates the perfect conditions
for tornado activity. The
> Auckland mini tornado was timed at early afternoon, fitting the theory
nicely.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: James Holbeach
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 2:07 AM
Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!


Well I said I'd do it tomorrow but this daylight saving this has me well and
truly awake LOL

Ok, Ken, I have done the analysis on ONLY named Cyclones which were longer
than 4 days.
Of the 350 cyclones which were named and longer than 4 days, the following
is the breakdown of the moon age when they formed.
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif

Again, this shows no relationship which could not be equally shown by a
random event. Will you now admit that there is no evidence of a relationship
between moon phase and the formation of cyclones?

While I was doing this I also came up with an interesting histogram for the
duration of cyclones!
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif

I have put the updated spreadsheet on the net in zipped format here (This is
different from the last):
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip  [4.78Mb]

as I said before, this is a large excel spreadsheet (~22Mb) and you will
need a fairly good computer to open it.

Cheers

James

 James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club
Mt. Hotham, Australia
. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------


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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.29.139]
From: "James Harris" <jimboharr at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:00:12 +1100
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<x-html>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>That is a great shot of the tornado ! The guy who 
took it gave out a classic quote </FONT></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><FONT 
face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, MS Sans Serif" color=#000000 size=2>
<DIV><BR>"We were waiting for sheds to go up in the air but we never got to have 
that enjoyment ... I was thinking `where's that bunker we should be diving 
into'." </DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Hmm I wonder what movie he's been watching 
...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=nzstorm at ihug.co.nz href="mailto:nzstorm at ihug.co.nz">Steven 
  Williams</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, October 28, 2002 5:15 
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: NZ Tornados</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There is a nice picture on the front cover of the 
  Christchurch press of a tornado just SE of the city.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
  href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html">http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html</A></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>A F1 tornado did minor property damage in 
  Aucklands western suburbs friday. Worst affected house had</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>about 2/3 of its roof 
  removed.&nbsp;&nbsp;</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 10:14:42 +1300
From: Gregg Ward <gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz>
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.2b) Gecko/20021016
X-Accept-Language: en-us, en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Steven Williams wrote:

> There is a nice picture on the front cover of the Christchurch press 
> of a tornado just SE of the city.
> http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html
>  
> A F1 tornado did minor property damage in Aucklands western suburbs 
> friday. Worst affected house had
> about 2/3 of its roof removed.  

What an impressive photo.

The radar echo from around the time of this storm, can be seen at the 
following web address (only available till 03:00 UTC):

    http://www.metservice.co.nz/radar/cny_03.asp


Gregg


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From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 08:27:22 +1100
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Amazing shot. Would look excellent framed.
Peter
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:52 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has 
aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Paul Rands" <prands at optusnet.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 00:14:18 +1100
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!

> What a ripper of a pic!
> 
> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
> Paul Rands
> Email: prands at optusnet.com.au
> ICQ: 137833127 or MSN: Uncle Paul
> Web: http://prands.docspages.com/
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of T Middleton
> Sent: Sunday, 27 October 2002 08:58
> Subject: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> 
> 
> hi all,
> There was storms in SEQ last night (Sat.26th),Ben Quinn was out chasing
> and 
> managed to capture this AWESOME CG in the Caboolture/Kilcoy area. Great
> Stuff Ben.
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/cg_big.jpg
> Anthony Cornelius may also have captured something from these storms 
> also....
> 
> cheers, TM
> 
> Anvil Industries - http://bigmax.yi.org/users/anvils
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
> Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free! Try MSN. 
> http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/2monthsfree.asp
> 
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC genesis
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 09:14:54 +1100
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>"Tropical cyclones also only form from full moon-last quarter"

Ken,

To save those like myself who are too busy to compare TC genesis dates with
phases of the moon, why don't you email your analysis to Aussie WX which
proves this fact? I looked very much forward to seeing the results of your
work. 

Now... perish the thought... but if such a statement is not based on hard
fact and analysis, it would only seem appropriate for you to unsubscribe
from the list as you have miss-lead all of your fellow list members.

Regards,

David
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com)"
	 <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: no need for fancy statistics
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 09:29:05 +1100
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>Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter, and for the same reason, only in that case we
> are talking about the water heating above 28deg instead of the land.
> Or is the Full moon + dust storm AGAIN a coincidence? If so.. when does
> coincidence become theory..?
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com

and

>I agree with you that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because the
>variables are too great.
>Ken

Ken you are very wrong here. To prove you wrong ONLY one cyclone has to form
outside of "full moon-last quarter". This has been shown to have happened,
and you are proven wrong. There is no need for fancy statistics here.

Regards,

David
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From: "W.A. \(Bill\) Webb" <billwebb at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 09:18:03 +1000
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Hi Ken, List.

for your info

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 25, 2002 6:20 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"

> In fact, to
> my knowledge, no one else is putting out longrange forecasts for Australia
a
> month ahead. Not any of the professionals OR amateurs. I am ALSO doing it
> for NZ and the UK, on the same page. I know of no one else doing it for
any
> single ONE of those countries, let alone all three. And I'm not even a
> meteorologist. So where's THEIR work?

Haydon Walker (son of late Lennox Walker) continues to publish forecasts for
some months ahead. I believe he uses sun-spot activity as the basis for his
analyses.

Ian Morandy also publishes forecasts out over a month. He bases his
predictions on tidal sequences (more moon-based perhaps than sunspots). I
posted a copy of his disclaimer to the list some time ago.

Both of these forecasters forecasts have been eagerly read by Australians,
especially those in the bush, for many years. I can remember Lennox Walker's
forecasts being discussed by people in SW Qld (yeah, Thargomindah too!) in
the fifties.

My impression is that their forecasts are more often then not overly
optimistic for rain occurring, and hence their popularity - good news is
always welcome!

Fine and bloody dry here in Proserpine. We had a minimum hourly RH of 14 the
other day (dust storm day). How about sending some of the moisture from
south to the north??

Regards,
Bill


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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 10:26:17 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Two things Ken, </FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; &quot;</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Tropical cyclones also only form</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; from full moon-last quarter</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&quot;</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">This simple analysis has clearly shown that this comment is simply not true.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Second thing is that in none of the graphs, can you say that the variation was not caused by a purely random effect</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">- so No, you cannot say that</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">cyclones</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">are more likely to form</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">b/w 13-21d.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><B><I><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I'll ask again, could you send me your rainfall predictions for the previous year?</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><B><I> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Please?</FONT></I></B></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">And David</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">, it is not really fancy statistics, pretty simple</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> really, didn't take that long to do either :)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"> </SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Richard: I'll give that a shot when I get into work today . . . .</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN><A NAME=""><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">James Holbeach</FONT></SPAN></A></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">--------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Trapdoor Ski Club </FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Mt. Hotham, Australia</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">ph. 0417 553 757</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</A></FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">--------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-----Original Message-----<BR>
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [<A HREF="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A>] On Behalf Of Ken Ring<BR>
Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 6:54 AM<BR>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">James</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">No evidence? I'd say that the period 13 days-21 days shows more cyclone</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">activity than at other points in the phase cycle in your breakdown! Looks</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">like a question of interpretation here, notwithstanding the excellent effort</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">you went to in preparing it. Cyclone definition could be a bit too variable.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">If you have time I'd like to see someone try tornados as they are much more</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">specific to a date and time.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; Whenever a tornado is reported in the newspaper, and a time is mentioned,</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">it will be observed that the moon &gt; has still to rise or has set. This</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">situation applies, even if the tornado is at night, the early morning,</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">midday or</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; afternoon. A tornado at night usually occurs during the new moon, which is</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">a day moon. If the tornado is</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; during the early morning hours and up to about midday, the moon will be</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">more than likely in the first quarter. &gt; But most tornados occur while the</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">moon is full and into the last quarter, for this is the period that the sun</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; applies the most heat to the ground, which creates the perfect conditions</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">for tornado activity. The</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&gt; Auckland mini tornado was timed at early afternoon, fitting the theory</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">nicely.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Ken</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">----- Original Message -----</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">From: James Holbeach</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">To: aussie-weather at world.std.com</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 2:07 AM</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Subject: aus-wx: TC vs Moon age analysis #3 . . . .finally!</FONT></SPAN></P>
<BR>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Well I said I'd do it tomorrow but this daylight saving this has me well and</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">truly awake LOL</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Ok, Ken, I have done the analysis on ONLY named Cyclones which were longer</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">than 4 days.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Of the 350 cyclones which were named and longer than 4 days, the following</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">is the breakdown of the moon age when they formed.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/namedcyclones-gt4days.gif</A></FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Again, this shows no relationship which could not be equally shown by a</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">random event. Will you now admit that there is no evidence of a relationship</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">between moon phase and the formation of cyclones?</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">While I was doing this I also came up with an interesting histogram for the</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">duration of cyclones!</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif</A></FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I have put the updated spreadsheet on the net in zipped format here (This is</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">different from the last):</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/cyclonesV2.zip</A>&nbsp; [4.78Mb]</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">as I said before, this is a large excel spreadsheet (~22Mb) and you will</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">need a fairly good computer to open it.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Cheers</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">James</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&nbsp;James Holbeach</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">--------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Trapdoor Ski Club</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Mt. Hotham, Australia</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">. 0417 553 757</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au">http://www.trapdoor.com.au</A></FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">--------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>
<BR>

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<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&nbsp;To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&nbsp;with &quot;unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address&quot; in the body of your</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&nbsp;message.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-au"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">&nbsp;-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-au"></SPAN></P>

</BODY>
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</x-html>

From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Forecasting models
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 13:18:21 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2719.2200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffff80>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I have put up at</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com/models.htm">http://www.wthrman.com/models.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>a single reference point where people can access 
most forecasting models. Click on anything in the drop down box and the model 
will appear on the same screen opposite.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>If there are any missing that anyone thinks would 
be worth including, please let me know as these are the only ones I know of 
myself.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;Thanks!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical 
musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "arky dave" <dajapo at voltage.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tornado Drought
Date: Sun, 27 Oct 2002 23:16:52 -0600
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Greetings Everybody:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Tonight(Sunday), the Weather Channel had an interesting report. For all of 2002, 
to Oct. 26th,(preliminary) there had been 641 tornadoes in the US. The 10-year 
average through October 26th was 1,128. The 10-year average for a full year is 
1,206 twisters. THIS kind of drought is fine with me!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial 
size=2>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; A while back, I 
asked for a rain dance, NOW, I'd like ya'll to do a SUN dance--as we've seen 
very little sunshine the past 8 days.(Very unusual for us to be cloudy for a 
week straight).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Wishing ALL A Super 
Week!&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Yours&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; David 
Powell</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:40:45 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Fancy Statistics LOL
(James)
> "Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter" This simple analysis has clearly shown that
this comment is simply not true.
True. Careless use of language on my part. Of course there are exceptions to
every rule. "Mainly" would have been a better word to use. Sorry.

>Second thing is that in none of the graphs, can you say that the variation
was not caused by a purely random > effect.
True, it's up for grabs, but which is still not to say what I claim isn't
true.

> I'll ask again, could you send me your rainfall predictions for the
previous year? Please?
Sorry, no time. I suggest you follow my forecasts as put out if you are
interested, or do an analysis on tornados as I have suggested.  If you are
serious about examining me and not just finding reason to fault, then I have
put more than enough information on my website for you to get stuck into.

(Bill)
> Haydon Walker (son of late Lennox Walker) continues to publish forecasts..
Thanks for those names. I am aware of the history of the Cromhurst
Observatory. However, I do not find they have websites and what I really
meant was I don't think there is anyone putting out FREE forecasts at least
a month ahead for the general public to make use of.

 (Jane)
> the quote doesn't say LUNAR tide effect, it says tide effect..why was
lunar included in your quote? Doesn't say > anything about the 2.5:1 figure
either.
I can't find the original. Are we quibbling over one word? Jane, the
atmospheric tide IS the lunar tide. I'm surprised that you seem to question
this. Most people, and that includes most scientists, accept that the sea
tide and land tide are mostly caused by the moon; ratio more than 2:1 as
compared to solar influence. .So it is not a difficult jump to recognise the
tide (lunar)of the air.

(David)
> it would only seem appropriate for you to unsubscribe
> from the list as you have miss-lead all of your fellow list members .
Such a comment just doesn't dignify this list. I hope this bad speller and
unhappy individual is in a minority. I have had a most interesting time and
many expressions of interest in these different ideas. Goodness me! If
anyone feels mislead would they please tell me??




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 17:49:55 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.3416
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>" If you are serious about examining me and not just finding reason to
fault"
I am not out on a witch hunt ken, I simply want to open people's eyes to
not believe everything they see or read, without some proof.

If the cyclone analysis showed a relationship, then I would have happily
published it and we'd all be famous!!!

However, and this is important, it did not. 

All you can say is that IF there is a relationship between moon phase
and cyclone formation, then it must be a very very small relationship.

Your altered assertion that they form "mainly" in the last quarter, is
equally invalid. The analysis simply does not support ANY relationship
unless it is very very minor.

The only data I could find for rainfall on your site was 1 month in
advance- you have removed all previous data, you must have this still!-
If you are really serious and confident in your predictions, then surely
you would not mind, and infact want them to be independently checked? It
is in your best interests! :) 

Cheers

James

James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 4:41 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL

Fancy Statistics LOL
(James)
> "Tropical cyclones also only form
> from full moon-last quarter" This simple analysis has clearly shown
that
this comment is simply not true.
True. Careless use of language on my part. Of course there are
exceptions to
every rule. "Mainly" would have been a better word to use. Sorry.

>Second thing is that in none of the graphs, can you say that the
variation
was not caused by a purely random > effect.
True, it's up for grabs, but which is still not to say what I claim
isn't
true.

> I'll ask again, could you send me your rainfall predictions for the
previous year? Please?
Sorry, no time. I suggest you follow my forecasts as put out if you are
interested, or do an analysis on tornados as I have suggested.  If you
are
serious about examining me and not just finding reason to fault, then I
have
put more than enough information on my website for you to get stuck
into.

(Bill)
> Haydon Walker (son of late Lennox Walker) continues to publish
forecasts..
Thanks for those names. I am aware of the history of the Cromhurst
Observatory. However, I do not find they have websites and what I really
meant was I don't think there is anyone putting out FREE forecasts at
least
a month ahead for the general public to make use of.

 (Jane)
> the quote doesn't say LUNAR tide effect, it says tide effect..why was
lunar included in your quote? Doesn't say > anything about the 2.5:1
figure
either.
I can't find the original. Are we quibbling over one word? Jane, the
atmospheric tide IS the lunar tide. I'm surprised that you seem to
question
this. Most people, and that includes most scientists, accept that the
sea
tide and land tide are mostly caused by the moon; ratio more than 2:1 as
compared to solar influence. .So it is not a difficult jump to recognise
the
tide (lunar)of the air.

(David)
> it would only seem appropriate for you to unsubscribe
> from the list as you have miss-lead all of your fellow list members .
Such a comment just doesn't dignify this list. I hope this bad speller
and
unhappy individual is in a minority. I have had a most interesting time
and
many expressions of interest in these different ideas. Goodness me! If
anyone feels mislead would they please tell me??




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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X-Originating-IP: [210.50.30.21]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:30:35 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Oct 2002 07:30:35.0723 (UTC) FILETIME=[E7DD71B0:01C27E53]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
     I don't feel mislead, I find it interesting, maybe there is merit to 
what you do Ken, and the moon probably does have a little influence in 
controlling some aspect of weather systems, I personally just think that 
there are way too many other factors at work here, as there has been NIL 
weather in this part of australia for a long time, i suppose the 30 odd 
emails of yours a day is ok as well :), James thanx for putting that effort 
in, it finally opened on my piece of crap PC, but it was worth it, love 
stats!, And Ken, looking forward to Nov 1-2 here in Sydney, your rain 
predicted dates, we need some, let's see how you go.


_________________________________________________________________
Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband.  
http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 18:33:56 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this fitted in
with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within Brisbane's
general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot dry
winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
Peter


---
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Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 22:46:52 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Peter
> > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this fitted
in
> with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th and
28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane? er..hello?
Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple of
weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for over
two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice personnel
who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know what
will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered MISLEADING
to some and not significant to others because a random graph will probably
show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be called
a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years of
past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will see
some success here..
I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
Ken
www.predictweather.com


----- Original Message -----
From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this fitted in
> with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within Brisbane's
> general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot dry
> winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> Peter
>
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Stargazer" <stargazer at picknowl.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:26:50 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2720.3000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)

Regs. Paul.
(Stargazer)
http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has 
> aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> 
> Phil



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:35:56 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you so'
at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your reputation
or this forum, in future please spare us.

richard

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> Peter
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
fitted
> in
> > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th
and
> 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
er..hello?
> Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple of
> weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
over
> two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
> that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
personnel
> who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know what
> will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
MISLEADING
> to some and not significant to others because a random graph will probably
> show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
called
> a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years of
> past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will
see
> some success here..
> I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this fitted
in
> > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
Brisbane's
> > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot dry
> > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > Peter
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:07:28 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Good on you Rune, one un-mislead person cancels out one mislead one.
Thanks for allowing that the moon may have influence, but I don't blame
anyone for being skeptical.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fancy Statistics LOL


>      I don't feel mislead, I find it interesting, maybe there is merit to
> what you do Ken, and the moon probably does have a little influence in
> controlling some aspect of weather systems, I personally just think that
> there are way too many other factors at work here, as there has been NIL
> weather in this part of australia for a long time, i suppose the 30 odd
> emails of yours a day is ok as well :), James thanx for putting that
effort
> in, it finally opened on my piece of crap PC, but it was worth it, love
> stats!, And Ken, looking forward to Nov 1-2 here in Sydney, your rain
> predicted dates, we need some, let's see how you go.
>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
> Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband.
> http://resourcecenter.msn.com/access/plans/freeactivation.asp
>
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 05:25:05 -0500
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I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now it's
just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
Modistach
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you so'
at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your reputation
or this forum, in future please spare us.

richard

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> Peter
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
fitted
> in
> > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th
and
> 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
er..hello?
> Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple of
> weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
over
> two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
> that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
personnel
> who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know what
> will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
MISLEADING
> to some and not significant to others because a random graph will probably
> show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
called
> a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years of
> past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will
see
> some success here..
> I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this fitted
in
> > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
Brisbane's
> > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot dry
> > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > Peter
> >
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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X-Sender: s355334 at student.uq.edu.au
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Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:30:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Leslie Muir <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
Les

At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
>Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
>
>Regs. Paul.
>(Stargazer)
>http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
>
> > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has
> > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> >
> > Phil
>
>
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 21:24:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Evening all

Thanks for you comments guys

It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the night

http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
(the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)

Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the lightning
better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart from
being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2 (digital),
15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> Les
>
> At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> >
> >Regs. Paul.
> >(Stargazer)
> >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has
> > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > >
> > > Phil
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 22:01:14 +1030
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here's a quote from bodie in the weatherzone forum,

bodie 'quote'
Thunder, i have a Cannon G2 (digital) and the shot was taken at 38mm, ISO 50
and F4.5. It was a 15 second exposure but when you look closely at the bolt
you can see it all came down at once (about 13 seconds into the exposure too
i might add!).

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:00 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> Les
>
> At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> >
> >Regs. Paul.
> >(Stargazer)
> >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and has
> > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > >
> > > Phil
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 01:12:58 +1300
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I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is it at
all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people jumping
down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY point
of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
reactions to my ideas.
Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August 14th,
1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable of
either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed between
full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th October.
The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The day
of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's phase
cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer than
65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd May
1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the last
two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there have
been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now it's
> just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
>
> PaulY
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> Modistach
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you
so'
> at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your reputation
> or this forum, in future please spare us.
>
> richard
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > Peter
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th
> and
> > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> er..hello?
> > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple
of
> > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
> over
> > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
> > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> personnel
> > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
what
> > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> MISLEADING
> > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
probably
> > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
> called
> > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years
of
> > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will
> see
> > some success here..
> > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
fitted
> in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> Brisbane's
> > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot
dry
> > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > Peter
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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>
>
>
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:25:54 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Ken,

Don't worry. I read your posts without bias unlike others here. I take on 
board what I believe matches the weather scene but I am not into 
"scientific bagging".

I suppose it is like doctors who don't believe in alternative medicines....

Jimmy Deguara

At 01:12 AM 29/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:
>I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is it at
>all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people jumping
>down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY point
>of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
>fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
>reactions to my ideas.
>Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
>pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August 14th,
>1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
>It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable of
>either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
>Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed between
>full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th October.
>The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
>Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The day
>of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
>before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
>program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
>uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
>I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's phase
>cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer than
>65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd May
>1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the last
>two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there have
>been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
>Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
>Ken
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
>Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now it's
> > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
> >
> > PaulY
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > Modistach
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you
>so'
> > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your reputation
> > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> >
> > richard
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > Peter
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th
> > and
> > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> > er..hello?
> > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple
>of
> > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
> > over
> > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
> > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> > personnel
> > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
>what
> > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> > MISLEADING
> > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
>probably
> > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
> > called
> > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years
>of
> > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will
> > see
> > > some success here..
> > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
>fitted
> > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > Brisbane's
> > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot
>dry
> > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > Peter
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > >
> > > >
>+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>your
> > >  message.
> > >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:28:21 EST
Subject: Re: aus-wx: re. min max temp   help    thanks
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows AU sub 10501
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">To all that replied to my email thank you especially Laurier Williams .<BR>
Project was completed and result (elephant stamp or gold star )&nbsp; will be posted when known. Once again thank you .<BR>
<BR>
Dennis Cottle</FONT></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:41:55 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2616
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ok, I am not a fan of a slanging match either, but are people getting
sick of my analysis? If so I will not bother posting them here any more.

Views please, I am relatively new to this list and don't want to tread
on toes. That said, I don't believe I am flaming or slanging Ken, rather
analysing his claims. . . That is all. . . .

Regardless. . . 

Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The facts
(my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
post, in any way.

Thanks 

James


James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...

I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is
it at
all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
jumping
down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
point
of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
reactions to my ideas.
Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
14th,
1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
of
either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
between
full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
October.
The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The
day
of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
phase
cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
than
65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
May
1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
last
two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
have
been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now
it's
> just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
>
> PaulY
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> Modistach
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told
you
so'
> at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
reputation
> or this forum, in future please spare us.
>
> richard
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > Peter
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
16th
> and
> > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> er..hello?
> > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
couple
of
> > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine
for
> over
> > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
say
> > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> personnel
> > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
what
> > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> MISLEADING
> > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
probably
> > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and
be
> called
> > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
years
of
> > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
will
> see
> > some success here..
> > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
fitted
> in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> Brisbane's
> > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for
hot
dry
> > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > Peter
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
 
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
>  message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
>
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
>  message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:14:02 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


dont get me wrong ken, i'm enjoying reading your posts, i'm still sitting on
the fence watching what everyone's got to say, i see merit in some of your
ideas, then some of them crack me up, such is life, your dedicated
conviction to your ideas impresses me, regardless of  how
accurate\inaccurate, relavant\irrelavent your ideas might be you have
managed to maintain a high professional standard in your arguments and i'd
hate to see you, or anyone else for that matter, throw it all away for 5
mins worth of  "shove it up 'em".when perpetuating unconventional theories
there's always going to be someone jumping on you, you have shown that you
are more than capable of rolling with the punches, deep down i hope you can
prove your right, time will tell, good luck.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 10:42 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is it
at
> all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
jumping
> down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
point
> of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
> fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
> reactions to my ideas.
> Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
> pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
14th,
> 1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
> It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
of
> either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
> Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
between
> full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th October.
> The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
> Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The day
> of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
> before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
> program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
> uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
> I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
phase
> cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
than
> 65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
May
> 1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the last
> two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there have
> been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
> Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now it's
> > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
> >
> > PaulY
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > Modistach
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you
> so'
> > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
reputation
> > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> >
> > richard
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > Peter
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
16th
> > and
> > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> > er..hello?
> > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
couple
> of
> > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
> > over
> > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
say
> > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> > personnel
> > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
> what
> > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> > MISLEADING
> > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
> probably
> > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
> > called
> > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years
> of
> > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
will
> > see
> > > some success here..
> > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > Brisbane's
> > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot
> dry
> > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > Peter
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > >
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 07:59:18 -0500
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


James,

Ya not stepping on toes IMO...just asking valid questions. Keep posting
buddy :o)

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of James
Holbeach
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 7:42 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .


Ok, I am not a fan of a slanging match either, but are people getting
sick of my analysis? If so I will not bother posting them here any more.

Views please, I am relatively new to this list and don't want to tread
on toes. That said, I don't believe I am flaming or slanging Ken, rather
analysing his claims. . . That is all. . . .

Regardless. . .

Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The facts
(my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
post, in any way.

Thanks

James


James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...

I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is
it at
all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
jumping
down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
point
of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
reactions to my ideas.
Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
14th,
1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
of
either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
between
full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
October.
The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The
day
of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
phase
cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
than
65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
May
1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
last
two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
have
been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now
it's
> just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
>
> PaulY
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> Modistach
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told
you
so'
> at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
reputation
> or this forum, in future please spare us.
>
> richard
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > Peter
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
16th
> and
> > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> er..hello?
> > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
couple
of
> > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine
for
> over
> > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
say
> > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> personnel
> > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
what
> > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> MISLEADING
> > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
probably
> > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and
be
> called
> > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
years
of
> > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
will
> see
> > some success here..
> > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
fitted
> in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> Brisbane's
> > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for
hot
dry
> > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > Peter
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > >
> > >
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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:50:33 +1030
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james, imo your analasys and thoughts are an integral part of this
discussion and i read then with great interest, i personally thank you for
your input and analysis and hope you continue to do so.

regards
richard

----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:11 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .


> Ok, I am not a fan of a slanging match either, but are people getting
> sick of my analysis? If so I will not bother posting them here any more.
>
> Views please, I am relatively new to this list and don't want to tread
> on toes. That said, I don't believe I am flaming or slanging Ken, rather
> analysing his claims. . . That is all. . . .
>
> Regardless. . .
>
> Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The facts
> (my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
> post, in any way.
>
> Thanks
>
> James
>
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
> I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is
> it at
> all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
> jumping
> down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
> point
> of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
> fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
> reactions to my ideas.
> Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
> pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
> 14th,
> 1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
> It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
> of
> either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
> Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
> between
> full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
> October.
> The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
> Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The
> day
> of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
> before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
> program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
> uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
> I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
> phase
> cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
> than
> 65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
> May
> 1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
> last
> two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
> have
> been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
> Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now
> it's
> > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
> >
> > PaulY
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > Modistach
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told
> you
> so'
> > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
> reputation
> > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> >
> > richard
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > Peter
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
> 16th
> > and
> > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> > er..hello?
> > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
> couple
> of
> > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine
> for
> > over
> > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
> say
> > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> > personnel
> > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
> what
> > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> > MISLEADING
> > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
> probably
> > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and
> be
> > called
> > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
> years
> of
> > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
> will
> > see
> > > some success here..
> > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > Brisbane's
> > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for
> hot
> dry
> > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > Peter
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > >
> > > >
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> > >
>
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
> >
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Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 23:48:38 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken,

I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
that you portray.

However things like...

Ken Ring wrote:
 With atmospheric
> pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of the
> sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the cold
> of space come closer to ground level. 

Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
look at this diagram:

http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif

There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is the
tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us. 
Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets cold! 
But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.

If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect that
is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is a
relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
you Ken.

AC
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X-Originating-IP: [211.28.96.69]
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:54:37 +1100
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<x-flowed>
There is no good coming out of this, I think Ken is intitled to his points 
of view and expressing his ideas openly like we all do here.  His theories 
to some may not be right, OK fair enough, but to some others it may be 
interesting.

I have enjoyed the debate, but its when it turns slinging, its really not 
really enjoyable at all.

Karl :)






>From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:35:56 +1030
>
>getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you 
>so'
>at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your reputation
>or this forum, in future please spare us.
>
>richard
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > Peter
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
>fitted
> > in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around 16th
>and
> > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
>er..hello?
> > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a couple 
>of
> > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
>over
> > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to say
> > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
>personnel
> > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know 
>what
> > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
>MISLEADING
> > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will 
>probably
> > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
>called
> > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years 
>of
> > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who will
>see
> > some success here..
> > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > Ken
> > www.predictweather.com
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this 
>fitted
>in
> > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
>Brisbane's
> > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot 
>dry
> > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > Peter
> > >
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > >
> > >  
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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</x-flowed>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: our "drought"
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 00:57:03 +1000
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Hi all,

To rejoin the great debate once again...

>snip
Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets cold!

The 'cold' of space seems to be a recurring theme in posts from various
folk.  Space is a vacuum, as such there is no matter (or so little that it
is completely irrelevant) therefore the concept of temperature does not
really apply.  It is neither hot nor cold as there is simply nothing there
to be hot or cold.

Also, as we know from the common household item of a thermos or vacuum
flask, that a vacuum is an excellent thermal insulator as there is no
material to conduct heat.  Therefore think of space as a nice thermal
blanket wrapped around the Earth helping to keep the heat energy on the
surface and atmosphere in.

Actually this is not 100% true because heat energy does escape from Earth
into space as infrared electromagnetic radiation, and of course the
thickness of the atmosphere and in particular, presence of cloud, helps to
catch and retain this radiated form of heat energy from the surface.  But
thinking of space as a thermal insulator puts a rather different perspective
on some arguments put forward here.

John.

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From: simon at fearby.com
To: Gregg Ward <gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz>, <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 19:23:25 Pacific Standard Time
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Just landed in NZ from Aussie and missed the Tornado by 1 day.

The trees in the main park in Christchurch have had most of their leaves stripped by hail.

Simon Fearby

Gregg Ward <gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz> wrote :

> Steven Williams wrote:
> 
> > There is a nice picture on the front cover of the Christchurch press 
> > of a tornado just SE of the city.
> > http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html
> >  
> > A F1 tornado did minor property damage in Aucklands western suburbs 
> > friday. Worst affected house had
> > about 2/3 of its roof removed.  
> 
> What an impressive photo.
> 
> The radar echo from around the time of this storm, can be seen at the 
> following web address (only available till 03:00 UTC):
> 
>     http://www.metservice.co.nz/radar/cny_03.asp
> 
> 
> Gregg
> 
> 
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Last one to the pub is a MCSE professional!

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From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:06 +1000
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Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy e-mail
address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the SES.

Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they were
taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?

Craig

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Evening all
>
> Thanks for you comments guys
>
> It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the
night
>
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
>
> Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
lightning
> better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart from
> being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
(digital),
> 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
>
> > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > Les
> >
> > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > >
> > >Regs. Paul.
> > >(Stargazer)
> > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > >
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > >
> > >
> > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and
has
> > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > >
> > > > Phil
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:55:15 +1300
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Well, some corrections are necessary here.
The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it. The
atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But there aint
much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest and the
largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's not as if
there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured sand-in-bottle
things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive
extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm to
such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the
kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the air.
Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or
stratosphere. (ref
http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
"Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would
actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a few air
molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable
heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands intact.
Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you have not
had the correct information.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"


> Ken,
>
> I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
> it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
> problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
> that you portray.
>
> However things like...
>
> Ken Ring wrote:
>  With atmospheric
> > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of
the
> > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
cold
> > of space come closer to ground level.
>
> Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
> TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
> people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
> look at this diagram:
>
> http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
>
> There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is the
> tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
> thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
> of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
> getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us.
> Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets cold!
> But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.
>
> If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
> support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
> when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect that
> is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
> your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
> method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is a
> relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
> why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
> every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
> told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
> you Ken.
>
> AC
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 10:05:19 +1300
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> > Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The facts
> > (my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
> > post, in any way.
I did respond. I don't think TCs vs moon's influence has not been proven by
your tables. I've explained my views about the huge potential for error in
defining cyclone time of formation and movement. e.g. what is a cyclone,
when does one become a tropical cyclone, where and when in its formation
time is it actually measured etc. A better test would be for tornados, which
are much more fleeting and location-specific. But you seem reluctant to do a
test such as that. Why? Because with the vagueness absent it just might
prove my ideas correct? Perhaps you are afraid of that. Tell you what - you
do the tornado thing and I'll give you 6 months worth of back Aussie
predictions to play with that you keep asking for, for the whole of
Australia in the form printed currently on my website on the Freemonth
page..
what do you reckon..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com


> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> > I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is
> > it at
> > all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
> > jumping
> > down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
> > point
> > of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
> > fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
> > reactions to my ideas.
> > Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
> > pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
> > 14th,
> > 1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
> > It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
> > of
> > either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
> > Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
> > between
> > full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
> > October.
> > The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
> > Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The
> > day
> > of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
> > before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
> > program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
> > uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
> > I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
> > phase
> > cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
> > than
> > 65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
> > May
> > 1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
> > last
> > two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
> > have
> > been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
> > Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now
> > it's
> > > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> > > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
> > >
> > > PaulY
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > > Modistach
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told
> > you
> > so'
> > > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
> > reputation
> > > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> > >
> > > richard
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > Peter
> > > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > > fitted
> > > > in
> > > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
> > 16th
> > > and
> > > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> > > er..hello?
> > > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
> > couple
> > of
> > > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine
> > for
> > > over
> > > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
> > say
> > > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> > > personnel
> > > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
> > what
> > > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> > > MISLEADING
> > > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
> > probably
> > > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and
> > be
> > > called
> > > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
> > years
> > of
> > > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
> > will
> > > see
> > > > some success here..
> > > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > > Ken
> > > > www.predictweather.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > > Brisbane's
> > > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for
> > hot
> > dry
> > > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > > Peter
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ---
> > > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > >
> >
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> > > > >
> > > >
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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
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Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:08:07 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi Third...

As is the usual case on this list in order to welcome ALL the new 'posters' 
to the list (perhaps at an awkward time, could you please tell us a little 
about yourselves: where you are from, what you do, your age, your favourite 
weather and how you got interested in weather in the first place.

Jimmy Deguara

At 06:17 AM 29/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy e-mail
>address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the SES.
>
>Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they were
>taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
>
>Craig
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
>
> > Evening all
> >
> > Thanks for you comments guys
> >
> > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the
>night
> >
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> >
> > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
>lightning
> > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart from
> > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
>(digital),
> > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > Les
> > >
> > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > >
> > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > >(Stargazer)
> > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and
>has
> > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > >
> > > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
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</x-flowed>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 07:19:31 +1000
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G'day Craig

Welcome to the list

The first 3 were taken from the D'aguilar Highway about 25-30km's (i guess)
east of Kilkoy on Saturday night- the mountain the bolts are striking is Mt
Archer.  The fourth was taken 2-3k's east of Kilkoy on a side road.  The
bolts would have come down very close to the meatworks on the edge of town.
Anyone working there at the time would have known about it that's for sure!

Cheers


----- Original Message -----
From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 6:17 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy e-mail
> address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the
SES.
>
> Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they were
> taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
>
> Craig
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
>
> > Evening all
> >
> > Thanks for you comments guys
> >
> > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the
> night
> >
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> >
> > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
> lightning
> > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart
from
> > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> (digital),
> > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > Les
> > >
> > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > >
> > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > >(Stargazer)
> > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being and
> has
> > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > >
> > > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:39:59 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Oh for gods sake Ken . . . you've just shot yourself in the foot without
me even trying . . .
" I've explained my views about the huge potential for error in
defining cyclone time of formation and movement. e.g. what is a cyclone,
when does one become a tropical cyclone, where and when in its formation
time is it actually measured etc."

So if that is the case, how can you possibly predict them with any
accuracy? Look, if there was some error between the first report of a
cyclone and the actual start of the cyclone (which you seem to want to
be able to define yourself), then it would be a systematic error, which
would propagate through the analysis, BUT a relationship would STILL
show up. IT DOES NOT- 
The average length of a cyclonic even (as defined by the reports) is 3-7
days http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif so
if there was a question about the definition of a start time, it would
not make a big difference in my analysis.

> "Tropical cyclones also only [mainly] form from full moon-last
quarter"
I have shown this to be completely incorrect. Now what is the point of
me wasting my time doing any further analysis if you are going to be so
pig headed, and not accept the facts that are plainly in front of you?
Sure attack my method, look for reasonable flaws in my logic, but don't
keep changing the rules to suit your argument!

Also, WHEN did I ever say I was reluctant to do a tornado analysis? I am
not, I don't know where I would get the data, but I'll have a look. But
for heavens sake, be a man and admit when you are wrong.

James
p.s. from a currently hungover and surly james (congrats to my other
half who got a great new job yesterday- did we have to celebrate so
hard???) LOL

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 8:05 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .


> > Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The
facts
> > (my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
> > post, in any way.
I did respond. I don't think TCs vs moon's influence has not been proven
by
your tables. I've explained my views about the huge potential for error
in
defining cyclone time of formation and movement. e.g. what is a cyclone,
when does one become a tropical cyclone, where and when in its formation
time is it actually measured etc. A better test would be for tornados,
which
are much more fleeting and location-specific. But you seem reluctant to
do a
test such as that. Why? Because with the vagueness absent it just might
prove my ideas correct? Perhaps you are afraid of that. Tell you what -
you
do the tornado thing and I'll give you 6 months worth of back Aussie
predictions to play with that you keep asking for, for the whole of
Australia in the form printed currently on my website on the Freemonth
page..
what do you reckon..?
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com


> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> > Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> > I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But
is
> > it at
> > all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
> > jumping
> > down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from
MY
> > point
> > of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so?
Not
> > fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for
people's
> > reactions to my ideas.
> > Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild
Weather. It
> > pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on
August
> > 14th,
> > 1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
> > It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is
capable
> > of
> > either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation
across
> > Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
> > between
> > full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
> > October.
> > The other example on the program was the storm that affected the
Fastnet
> > Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979.
The
> > day
> > of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
> > before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour
long
> > program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that
downright
> > uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
> > I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the
moon's
> > phase
> > cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no
fewer
> > than
> > 65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on
3rd
> > May
> > 1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
> > last
> > two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
> > have
> > been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
> > Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
> > Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but
now
> > it's
> > > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing
the
> > > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than
Wx-Chase.
> > >
> > > PaulY
> > >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > > Modistach
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i
told
> > you
> > so'
> > > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
> > reputation
> > > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> > >
> > > richard
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > Peter
> > > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how
this
> > > fitted
> > > > in
> > > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls
around
> > 16th
> > > and
> > > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David?
Jane?
> > > er..hello?
> > > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
> > couple
> > of
> > > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle
magazine
> > for
> > > over
> > > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd
venture to
> > say
> > > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old
ex-metservice
> > > personnel
> > > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I
know
> > what
> > > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be
considered
> > > MISLEADING
> > > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph
will
> > probably
> > > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others
and
> > be
> > > called
> > > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
> > years
> > of
> > > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few
who
> > will
> > > see
> > > > some success here..
> > > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > > Ken
> > > > www.predictweather.com
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how
this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > > Brisbane's
> > > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except
for
> > hot
> > dry
> > > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > > Peter
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ---
> > > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date:
15/10/2002
> > > > >
> > > > >
> >
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> > > > >  message.
> > > >
> >
> >
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
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Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 08:34:27 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Ken,

My dearest and most humble apologies.  All of those years at university
and thousands of dollars of HECS fees must have gone to waste.  I'll be
sure to go to uni and inform my lecturers of their mistakes, and I shall
also contact some of the well known academic publishers such as Oxford
University Press and Camrbdige University Press etc who have printed
textbooks and inform them that the definition of the atmosphere has
changed in accordance with yout statement.

In space there is no air...in the thermosphere there is air.  If the
atmosphere is the region of air, then because the thermosphere has air
in it then it's part of the atmosphere.  Just because there is "not much
air" does not mean it's not a part of space!  And certainly not to suit
your opinion.  Furthermore, there's not much air in the mesosphere or
stratosphere, should I also inform my lecturers and scholars that
they're not a part of the atmosphere too?  Where would you like the
atmosphere to end, Ken?  6km up in the atmosphere and you're already
above half of the available air.  15-16km and you're above 90% of the
air, shall we call the upper part of the troposphere the end of the
atmosphere?

I've already said, it's not that I disagree with your forecasting
method.  I don't mind how people forecast, whether they use the moon,
sunspots, tides, ENSO, forecast models, their gut feeling or want to
throw a pair of dice.  It's their forecast, and that's fine and if they
get it right, kudos to them.  What I have a problem with is supporting
their method with incorrect information!!!  There are people on this
list who might actually think that things you have said (for instance,
you once explained that the poles are colder because the coldness of
space is closer there than at the equator) are actually true!  This is
extremely wrong!  It's cold there because the sun shines on it at an
angle so the rays aren't as strong as they're spread over a wider
angle.  Furthermore, when people have told you they're wrong you don't
believe them.  I tried the nice tactic a while ago, it didn't work.  You
only seem to respond to emails with anger in them.

Don't twist things around to make them suit your opinion...find some
other way of describing it, just don't describe something you've already
been informed as being wrong!

AC

Ken Ring wrote:
> 
> Well, some corrections are necessary here.
> The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it. The
> atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But there aint
> much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest and the
> largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's not as if
> there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured sand-in-bottle
> things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive
> extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm to
> such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the
> kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the air.
> Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
> temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or
> stratosphere. (ref
> http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
> "Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would
> actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a few air
> molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable
> heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
> So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands intact.
> Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you have not
> had the correct information.
> Ken
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> 
> > Ken,
> >
> > I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
> > it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
> > problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
> > that you portray.
> >
> > However things like...
> >
> > Ken Ring wrote:
> >  With atmospheric
> > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out of
> the
> > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets the
> cold
> > > of space come closer to ground level.
> >
> > Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
> > TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
> > people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> > atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
> > look at this diagram:
> >
> > http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
> >
> > There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is the
> > tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
> > thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
> > of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
> > getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us.
> > Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets cold!
> > But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.
> >
> > If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
> > support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
> > when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect that
> > is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
> > your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
> > method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is a
> > relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
> > why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
> > every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
> > told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
> > you Ken.
> >
> > AC
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 11:43:34 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Here's my end of the bargain.
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com



Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\6 months of Australian forecasts.pdf"
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 10:03:43 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


No James, I never tire of statistical analyses especially as there's a good
chance I could learn something from what someone else does. Other people of
course (including me!) are not as well versed as you are in these things but
that doesn't water down the importance of your work. So please keep putting
them up wherever appropriate.
Did you try a (non parametric) Wilcoxon rank sum test between the random
numbers and the tropical cyclone counts? If the cyclones are as random as
the numbers there should be no statistically signifcant difference between
the 2 populations.

Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:41 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Question Re current discussion. . . .


> Ok, I am not a fan of a slanging match either, but are people getting
> sick of my analysis? If so I will not bother posting them here any more.
>
> Views please, I am relatively new to this list and don't want to tread
> on toes. That said, I don't believe I am flaming or slanging Ken, rather
> analysing his claims. . . That is all. . . .
>
> Regardless. . .
>
> Ken, do you admit that your theory re TC's is not sustainable? The facts
> (my analysis) seem to show it, and you are yet to respond to my last
> post, in any way.
>
> Thanks
>
> James
>
>
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Monday, 28 October 2002 11:13 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
> I agree too. I want no slanging. I'm sorry for being sarcastic. But is
> it at
> all possible that I post something of interest to me, WITHOUT people
> jumping
> down my throat? I mean, give me a break, can I discuss weather from MY
> point
> of view or is it totally offensive to some people for me to do so? Not
> fishing for compliments here, but I can hardly be blamed for people's
> reactions to my ideas.
> Tonight in NZ on TV1 they filmed a documentary entitled Wild Weather. It
> pertains to recent discussion here. Hurricane ANDREW, formed on August
> 14th,
> 1992. The Full moon was August 13th, merely a day before.
> It was also the day of apogee, which, like perigee, its twin, is capable
> of
> either extreme calm or severe weather. ANDREW caused devastation across
> Florida. Hurricane Kenna has JUST reached Mexico, having also formed
> between
> full moon and last quarter(last quarter phase begins today, 29th
> October.
> The other example on the program was the storm that affected the Fastnet
> Yacht Race in the Irish Sea. The storm began on August 10th, 1979. The
> day
> of full moon(and perigee) had occurred on August 8th, two days
> before. That means that every weather event mentioned in the hour long
> program occurred within 2 or 3 days of Full moon. I call that downright
> uncanny, yet the word "moon" was not even mentioned once!
> I also claim that tornados also mostly form at this time of the moon's
> phase
> cycle. As depicted on the program; at Bridge Creek, Oklahoma, no fewer
> than
> 65 tornados in the one day killed 42 and rendered 3,500 homeless on 3rd
> May
> 1999 - AGAIN 3 days after the day of full moon(and apogee). Over the
> last
> two days, within the SAME full moon-last quarter phase period, there
> have
> been two tornados here- a mini-tornado over Auckland which affected
> Hillsborough, and one over Canterbury.
> Ken
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 11:25 PM
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
>
>
> > I agree Richard. Sure, all of this is interesting and such, but now
> it's
> > just getting into a slanging match. Can we get back to discussing the
> > weather instead please. This is starting to get worse than Wx-Chase.
> >
> > PaulY
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Richard
> > Modistach
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:06 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told
> you
> so'
> > at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
> reputation
> > or this forum, in future please spare us.
> >
> > richard
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > Peter
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> > fitted
> > > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
> 16th
> > and
> > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> > er..hello?
> > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
> couple
> of
> > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine
> for
> > over
> > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
> say
> > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> > personnel
> > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
> what
> > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> > MISLEADING
> > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
> probably
> > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and
> be
> > called
> > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand
> years
> of
> > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
> will
> > see
> > > some success here..
> > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> fitted
> > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> > Brisbane's
> > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for
> hot
> dry
> > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > Peter
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > >
>
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 13:22:45 +1300
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> Hi Ken,
>
> My dearest and most humble apologies.  All of those years at university
> and thousands of dollars of HECS fees must have gone to waste.  I'll be
> sure to go to uni and inform my lecturers of their mistakes, and I shall
> also contact some of the well known academic publishers such as Oxford
> University Press and Camrbdige University Press etc who have printed
> textbooks and inform them that the definition of the atmosphere has
> changed in accordance with yout statement.
If you say so, but don't get too drastic, Anthony, they were only doing
their best..

> In space there is no air...
Correct

> in the thermosphere there is air.
Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.

> Furthermore, there's not much air in the mesosphere or
> stratosphere, should I also inform my lecturers and scholars that
> they're not a part of the atmosphere too?
Suit yourself.

> Where would you like the
> atmosphere to end, Ken?  6km up in the atmosphere and you're already
> above half of the available air.  15-16km and you're above 90% of the
> air, shall we call the upper part of the troposphere the end of the
> atmosphere?
Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger if
viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that level
of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density. That's the
scale of measurement we're doing here.

> What I have a problem with is supporting
> their method with incorrect information!!!
Me too, same..

> There are people on this
> list who might actually think that things you have said (for instance,
> you once explained that the poles are colder because the coldness of
> space is closer there than at the equator) are actually true!  This is
> extremely wrong!
Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the poles
and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must surely
accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not, then
how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you like me
to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and downloaded
from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well documented
by NASA and others.

.> It's cold there because the sun shines on it at an
> angle so the rays aren't as strong as they're spread over a wider
> angle.
I agree, sure that adds to it, but it's not the whole story.

> Furthermore, when people have told you they're wrong you don't
> believe them.  I tried the nice tactic a while ago, it didn't work.
I see, according to the Anthony Law, just because someone tells me I'm wrong
I have to believe them.  Doesn't seem like a scientific discussion at that
point. Were you a bully in the school playground too?

> You
> only seem to respond to emails with anger in them.
No, I enjoy others too, but the angry ones tell me the writers are probably
afraid of changing their mindsets, which is not my problem..

> Don't twist things around to make them suit your opinion...find some
> other way of describing it, just don't describe something you've already
> been informed as being wrong!
I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I suggest
you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just repeating
off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that sincerely. We
may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative viewpoint. I
have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion much
of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the much of
the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who get
labelled mavericks.



> > Well, some corrections are necessary here.
> > The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it. The
> > atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But there
aint
> > much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest and
the
> > largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's not
as if
> > there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured sand-in-bottle
> > things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive
> > extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm
to
> > such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the
> > kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the
air.
> > Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
> > temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or
> > stratosphere. (ref
> > http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
> > "Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would
> > actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a few air
> > molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable
> > heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
> > So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands intact.
> > Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you have
not
> > had the correct information.
> > Ken
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> >
> > > Ken,
> > >
> > > I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
> > > it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
> > > problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
> > > that you portray.
> > >
> > > However things like...
> > >
> > > Ken Ring wrote:
> > >  With atmospheric
> > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
of
> > the
> > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets
the
> > cold
> > > > of space come closer to ground level.
> > >
> > > Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
> > > TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
> > > people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> > > atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
> > > look at this diagram:
> > >
> > > http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
> > >
> > > There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is
the
> > > tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
> > > thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
> > > of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
> > > getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us.
> > > Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets
cold!
> > > But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.
> > >
> > > If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
> > > support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
> > > when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect
that
> > > is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
> > > your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
> > > method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is
a
> > > relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
> > > why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
> > > every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
> > > told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
> > > you Ken.
> > >
> > > AC
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
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your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 12:30:42 +1100
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
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Subject: aus-wx: Raob 5.2 updated
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Interactive mode has been upgraded to allow changing wind speeds and
direction at all altitudes.
http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/Raob52/Moree_1.gif
http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/Raob52/Moree_2.gif
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Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 09:50:39 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
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Craig,  welcome to the list.  I know this is off-topic, but I would love 
to hear the story of how you came to have an e-mail address like that.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:06 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!

> Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy
> e-mail
> address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the
> SES.
> 
> Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they
> were
> taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
> 
> Craig
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> 
> 
> > Evening all
> >
> > Thanks for you comments guys
> >
> > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from
> the
> night
> >
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> >
> > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
> lightning
> > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart
> from
> > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> (digital),
> > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > Les
> > >
> > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > >
> > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > >(Stargazer)
> > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being
> and
> has
> > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > >
> > > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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>  
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > > 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > 
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:56:39 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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<x-html>
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<HTML>
<HEAD>
<META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<TITLE>Tornados v Moon Age.</TITLE>
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<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Ok I've kept my end of the</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">barg</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">in</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> I analysed tornado data. . . . it is amazing what you can find on the net if you look hard enough!! LOL</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I got the data from here</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN><A HREF="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/"><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></A><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Annoyingly, it does not have a single file for all states, but I figured Texas gets enough tornadoes to sink a ship, so I just</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">analyzed</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> Texas.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Between</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">1950</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> and 1995</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">, Texas had 5934 Tornodic events</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> (made that word up</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> :D</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">, of which 5925 were classified as tornados. Again</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">simply calculated the moon age at each event, and then produced a plot showing the number of tornados between particular ages.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist.gif"><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">TornadoHist.gif</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></A><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">and the distribution produced by a set of random</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">numbers</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist-rand.gif"><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-rand</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">.gif</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></A><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">While there does seem to be a very slight tendency for tornadoes to form near</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">the end/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">beginning</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">of the</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">no</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">solid conclusions could be drawn from this as it could be still due to statistical error.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us">&nbsp;</SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">To put these</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">results</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> in another way</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">There is a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">20.2% chance of a tornado between moon age 0-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">5.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">days</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">There is a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">19.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">% chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">5.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">11.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">There is a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">19.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">% chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">17.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">There is a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">19.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">% chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">17.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">23.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">There is a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">21.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">% chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">23.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">29.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">However there is a statistical 1.3% error in each of those figures (1/root(N))-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"></FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I think that is the right way to do it- it has been a while since I did this stuff :).</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><B><I><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">I</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><B><I><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">t DEFINITELY shows that there is no significant</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><B><I> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">relationship</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><B><I><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> between tornado formation and the phase of the moon.</FONT></I></B></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Oh and Kieth, I'll give it a shot, but I have deliberately done it this way</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">so that everyone can easily understand it.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">The spreadsheet is available. It is MUCH better annotated than the cyclone one. The cyclone one required a few tricks to extract the data, b</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">ut this one is much simpler.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN><A HREF="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls.gz"><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"><U><FONT COLOR="#0000FF" SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">.gz</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></A><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New"> [0.99Mb] Much smaller :) is a 4.9Mb Excel file</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> <FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">unzipped</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Hope this helps</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"> </SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Cheers</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">James</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"></SPAN><A NAME=""><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">James Holbeach</FONT></SPAN></A></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">----------------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">University of Melbourne, Australia</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">ph. +61 3 8344 6652</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">----------------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">-----Original Message-----<BR>
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [<A HREF="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A>] On Behalf Of Ken Ring<BR>
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 9:44 AM<BR>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>
Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast</FONT></SPAN><SPAN LANG="en-us"></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Here's my end of the bargain.</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">regards</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">Ken</FONT></SPAN></P>

<P ALIGN=LEFT><SPAN LANG="en-us"><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Courier New">www.predictweather.com</FONT></SPAN></P>

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X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 16:13:29 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast > text version online
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi All.

As Ken somehow managed to get the pages out of order in his PDF file 
(according to my version of Acrobat reader), I have uploaded a plain 
text version of Ken's 6 month Australian forecast at: 
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/temp/ken_ring_6_month_forecast.txt

I have taken the liberty of adding a Moon Addendum showing Apogee, 
Perigee, New Moon and Full Moon dates beneath each month (all dates 
and times UTC).

Regards,
Carl.

>Here's my end of the bargain.
>regards
>Ken
>www.predictweather.com
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: "Keith Barnett" <kbarnett at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 17:26:42 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>James,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Would it be possible for you to send the excel file 
in .ZIP format? I would like to run the stats test we were referring to but I 
only have WinZip and it gives me error messages.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Thanks</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Keith Barnett<BR>Weather fanatic and classical musician<BR>Website: <A 
href="http://www.wthrman.com">http://www.wthrman.com</A><BR>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>This 
message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified to be virus 
free.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=james at trapdoor.com.au href="mailto:james at trapdoor.com.au">James 
  Holbeach</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 4:56 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Tornados v Moon 
  Age.</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV><!-- Converted from text/rtf format -->
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Ok I've kept my 
  end of the</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>barg</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>in</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> I 
  analysed tornado data. . . . it is amazing what you can find on the net if you 
  look hard enough!! LOL</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>I got the data 
  from here</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN><A 
  href="http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/"><SPAN lang=en-us><U><FONT 
  face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us></SPAN></A><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Annoyingly, it 
  does not have a single file for all states, but I figured Texas gets enough 
  tornadoes to sink a ship, so I just</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>analyzed</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2> Texas.</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>Between</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>1950</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> and 
  1995</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>, Texas had 
  5934 Tornodic events</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2> (made that word up</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2> :D</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>)</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>, of which 5925 were classified as tornados. 
  Again</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>I</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>simply 
  calculated the moon age at each event, and then produced a plot showing the 
  number of tornados between particular ages.</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist.gif"><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>TornadoHist.gif</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></A><SPAN 
  lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>and the 
  distribution produced by a set of random</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>numbers</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist-rand.gif"><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>-rand</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" 
  color=#0000ff size=2>.gif</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></A><SPAN 
  lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>While there 
  does seem to be a very slight tendency for tornadoes to form 
  near</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>the 
  end/</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>beginning</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>of 
  the</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> moon 
  age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>,</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>no</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>solid 
  conclusions could be drawn from this as it could be still due to statistical 
  error.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN>&nbsp;</P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>To put 
  these</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>results</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> 
  in another way</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>There is 
  a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>20.2% chance 
  of a tornado between moon age 0-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>5.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>days</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>There is 
  a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>19.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>% 
  chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>5.9</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>11.8</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>There is 
  a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>19.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>% 
  chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>12</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>17.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>There is 
  a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>19.3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>% 
  chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>17.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>23.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>There is 
  a</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>21.7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>% 
  chance of a tornado between moon age</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>23.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>29.5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>days</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>However there 
  is a statistical 1.3% error in each of those figures 
  (1/root(N))-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>I think 
  that is the right way to do it- it has been a while since I did this stuff 
  :).</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><B><I><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>I</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><B><I><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>t DEFINITELY shows that there is no 
  significant</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us><B><I> <FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>relationship</FONT></I></B></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><B><I><FONT face="Courier New" size=2> between tornado formation 
  and the phase of the moon.</FONT></I></B></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Oh and Kieth, 
  I'll give it a shot, but I have deliberately done it this 
  way</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" size=2>so that 
  everyone can easily understand it.</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>The spreadsheet 
  is available. It is MUCH better annotated than the cyclone one. The cyclone 
  one required a few tricks to extract the data, b</FONT></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>ut this one is much 
  simpler.</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN><A 
  href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls.gz"><SPAN lang=en-us><U><FONT 
  face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN 
  lang=en-us><U><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff 
  size=2>.gz</FONT></U></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></A><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2> [0.99Mb] Much smaller :) is a 4.9Mb Excel 
  file</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> <FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>unzipped</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Hope this 
  helps</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us> </SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>Cheers</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>James</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en></SPAN><A name=""><SPAN lang=en><FONT 
  face="Courier New" size=2>James Holbeach</FONT></SPAN></A></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>----------------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Dept. Chemical and 
  Biomolecular Engineering</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>University of 
  Melbourne, Australia</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>ph. +61 3 8344 
  6652</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>----------------------------------------</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>-----Original 
  Message-----<BR>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [<A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com">mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com</A>] 
  On Behalf Of Ken Ring<BR>Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 9:44 AM<BR>To: 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR>Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of 
  forecast</FONT></SPAN><SPAN lang=en-us></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" size=2>Here's my end 
  of the bargain.</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>regards</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>Ken</FONT></SPAN></P>
  <P align=left><SPAN lang=en-us><FONT face="Courier New" 
  size=2>www.predictweather.com</FONT></SPAN></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32)
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:04:40 +1300
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


At 08:00 28/10/02 +1100, you wrote:
>   That is a great shot of the tornado ! The guy who  took it gave out a
>classic quote  
>"We were waiting for sheds to go up in the air but we never got to have 
>that enjoyment ... I was thinking `where's that bunker we should be diving 
>into'."    Hmm I wonder what movie he's been watching  ...       -----
>Original Message -----     From:    Steven    Williams    To:
>aussie-weather at world.std.com       Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:15   
>AM   Subject: aus-wx: NZ Tornados   
>   There is a nice picture on the front cover of the    Christchurch press
>of a tornado just SE of the city.  
>http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html       A
>F1 tornado did minor property damage in    Aucklands western suburbs
>friday. Worst affected house had     

Yes indeed a great shot of the tornado which rated as F1 in my books.
I videoed it from the other side, looking south and it did look menacing
although it had lifted back up into the cloud before I managed to get to
the site where it was. 
About 20 minutes previous to that I did observe and filmed a smaller funnel
roughly about the West Melton area along the same line of cloud. It was
hazy though.
I'm beginning to wonder, now, if it was in someways a, and excuse me for
this quote, I know how you hate this word on this list - a mini-supercell
development????????
It was an interesting day weather-wize, especially after the NE kicked in
just before noon.
Things began to happen in all directions with the first clap of thunder
overhead about 30 minutes after. Things were happening relatively quickly.
The development of the cloud that produced the tornado was after the first
lots of thunder which moved away to the east over the Port Hills.
I noticed huge uplifts and massive Cb top. Thunder was rumbling away mostly
in the cloud, but  it was getting darker and I thought I would move close
toward where the storm was developing.
What I filmed was the tornado about 5 miles away. A similar tornado passed
through the Halswell area on January 19th 1983. A bit more closer to where
i filmed. The 1983 tornado did $3 million dollars worth of damage. This one
was over farmland so less damage occured.
A one in 20 year event for Canterbury, New Zealand !!!

JohnGaul
NZTS 

 

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X-Sender: vk3jed-1 at 192.168.15.1
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:08:06 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 01:22 PM 29/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:

> > in the thermosphere there is air.
>Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.

There is "something" in the thermosphere, mostly highly excited ions, but 
they're there.  Either that, or some mysterious phenomenon returns the HF 
signals I send back to Earth in a different place.  Oh, and what slows down 
the ISS such that it needs a boost every few weeks? (The ISS orbits in the 
thermosphere).

However, I sense a semantic argument as to where "space" starts (afterall, 
"space" isn't empty, but it contains gas and dust at extremely low 
densities).  The question is at what amount (i.e. molecular density) does 
the atmosphere approximate a "complete vacuum"?

>Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger if
>viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that level
>of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density. That's the
>scale of measurement we're doing here.

Exactly.  There is no "point" where the atmosphere ends and space begins, 
but the atmosphere just gradually thins out until the molecular density 
approaches that of the surrounding space.

The question is how much of this "atmosphere" is significant then it comes 
to the question of lunar influence and the weather (I've already proved 
that the extremely thin thermosphere/ionosphere is significant for HF radio 
communications and low earth satellites).  Note:  the "F" layer (which 
supports HF radio) is at a similar altitude to ISS...

>Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the poles
>and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must surely
>accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not, then
>how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you like me
>to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and downloaded
>from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well documented
>by NASA and others.

Hmm, I wasn't aware of "thinning" at the poles to this extent.  If you have 
references, show them, and NASA is certainly what most people would 
consider a "credible" source, but we'd like to be able to examine this 
ourselves.  The issue here is you've done the research, so it should be 
easier to come up with the references (you do include bibliographies when 
you write papers?).

>I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I suggest
>you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just repeating
>off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
>And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that sincerely. We
>may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative viewpoint. I
>have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion much
>of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the much of
>the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who get
>labelled mavericks.

I'm open to new ideas, but I like to see evidence so I can mull them 
over.  The study of your predictions over time will be a part of that 
process.  I'm watching this with interest.

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.221.136.235]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:09:23 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 09:09:24.0341 (UTC) FILETIME=[E0028250:01C27F2A]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Hi every1,

OK...not that I care to contribute to the rapidly escalating flamefest...but 
I'm pretty sure things like solar flares expand the atmosphere (total 
atmosphere - not just any bit of it - whatever the definition), so shouldn't 
solar flares produce influences just as great if not greater than those of 
the Moon?

Food for thought anyway.

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.

P.S. The statistics provided are well and truly within the realm of a random 
distribution no matter which method I used. I'm forwarding them to a mate in 
the Stats section of Melbourne Uni. and Dr. Karl's site...not that I expect 
any great revelations to occur.

P.P.S. The tidal influences quoted at around dawn and dusk (+/- 2 hours) can 
easily be accounted for by solar radiation minima and maxima...i.e it's not 
only darkest before the dawn, it's also usually coldest...






>From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
>Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:08:06 +1100
>
>At 01:22 PM 29/10/2002 +1300, you wrote:
>
>> > in the thermosphere there is air.
>>Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.
>
>There is "something" in the thermosphere, mostly highly excited ions, but 
>they're there.  Either that, or some mysterious phenomenon returns the HF 
>signals I send back to Earth in a different place.  Oh, and what slows down 
>the ISS such that it needs a boost every few weeks? (The ISS orbits in the 
>thermosphere).
>
>However, I sense a semantic argument as to where "space" starts (afterall, 
>"space" isn't empty, but it contains gas and dust at extremely low 
>densities).  The question is at what amount (i.e. molecular density) does 
>the atmosphere approximate a "complete vacuum"?
>
>>Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger if
>>viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that 
>>level
>>of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density. That's 
>>the
>>scale of measurement we're doing here.
>
>Exactly.  There is no "point" where the atmosphere ends and space begins, 
>but the atmosphere just gradually thins out until the molecular density 
>approaches that of the surrounding space.
>
>The question is how much of this "atmosphere" is significant then it comes 
>to the question of lunar influence and the weather (I've already proved 
>that the extremely thin thermosphere/ionosphere is significant for HF radio 
>communications and low earth satellites).  Note:  the "F" layer (which 
>supports HF radio) is at a similar altitude to ISS...
>
>>Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the 
>>poles
>>and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must surely
>>accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not, 
>>then
>>how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you like me
>>to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and 
>>downloaded
>>from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well 
>>documented
>>by NASA and others.
>
>Hmm, I wasn't aware of "thinning" at the poles to this extent.  If you have 
>references, show them, and NASA is certainly what most people would 
>consider a "credible" source, but we'd like to be able to examine this 
>ourselves.  The issue here is you've done the research, so it should be 
>easier to come up with the references (you do include bibliographies when 
>you write papers?).
>
>>I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I suggest
>>you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just 
>>repeating
>>off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
>>And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that sincerely. We
>>may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative viewpoint. 
>>I
>>have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion 
>>much
>>of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the much 
>>of
>>the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who get
>>labelled mavericks.
>
>I'm open to new ideas, but I like to see evidence so I can mull them over.  
>The study of your predictions over time will be a part of that process.  
>I'm watching this with interest.
>
>73 de Tony, VK3JED
>http://vkradio.com
>
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>To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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</x-flowed>
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:09:44 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


More than agreed Karl. I'm out.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 12:54 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...


> There is no good coming out of this, I think Ken is intitled to his points
> of view and expressing his ideas openly like we all do here.  His theories
> to some may not be right, OK fair enough, but to some others it may be
> interesting.
>
> I have enjoyed the debate, but its when it turns slinging, its really not
> really enjoyable at all.
>
> Karl :)
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >Date: Mon, 28 Oct 2002 20:35:56 +1030
> >
> >getting on your high horse and thumbing your nose and saying 'i told you
> >so'
> >at people and slagging off the bom doesn't do anything for your
reputation
> >or this forum, in future please spare us.
> >
> >richard
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:16 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> >
> >
> > > Peter
> > > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> >fitted
> > > in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast
> > > Well now, since you asked, I said "Brisbane can expect falls around
16th
> >and
> > > 28th-30th.." So was it right or was it right? James? David? Jane?
> >er..hello?
> > > Check it folks - that's been on my website (Freemonth page)for a
couple
> >of
> > > weeks now at least, and on the editor's desk of Lifetsyle magazine for
> >over
> > > two months. If I wasn't such a modest and humble chap I'd venture to
say
> > > that such a result runs rings around poor weary old ex-metservice
> >personnel
> > > who have trouble predicting their own birthdays. BUT... I bet I know
> >what
> > > will happen next. Such a forecast so far ahead will be considered
> >MISLEADING
> > > to some and not significant to others because a random graph will
> >probably
> > > show the same result. It will not prove anything to yet others and be
> >called
> > > a coincidence. There will be one or two who will need a thousand years
> >of
> > > past data to be convinced. BUT..da da..there will be a tiny few who
will
> >see
> > > some success here..
> > > I suggest we don't lose sight of the fun..
> > > Ken
> > > www.predictweather.com
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "peter tristram" <peter.tri at bigpond.com>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:33 PM
> > > Subject: aus-wx: Repton rain - how good was Ken...
> > >
> > >
> > > > 76mm at Repton for the 36 hrs until 9am today. I wonder how this
> >fitted
> >in
> > > > with Ken's Brisbane October forecast - is Coffs Harbour within
> >Brisbane's
> > > > general 'range'? Bugger all for the rest of the month except for hot
> >dry
> > > > winds, smoke and the odd dust storm!
> > > > Peter
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.404 / Virus Database: 228 - Release Date: 15/10/2002
> > > >
> > > >
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> >to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> >your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
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> >
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>
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.221.136.235]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:14:40 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 09:14:40.0250 (UTC) FILETIME=[9C4E65A0:01C27F2B]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>


Hi John,

Congrats!!! You've also touched on one of my pet theories...that some storms 
which produce tornadoes (not necesarily "gustnadoes" (sic) either) may not 
obey the classical or traditional Great Plains model of supercell 
development.

Good catch anyway, man!

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.




>From: John Gaul <nzts.nz at caverock.net.nz>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
>Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:04:40 +1300
>
>At 08:00 28/10/02 +1100, you wrote:
> >   That is a great shot of the tornado ! The guy who  took it gave out a
> >classic quote
> >"We were waiting for sheds to go up in the air but we never got to have
> >that enjoyment ... I was thinking `where's that bunker we should be 
>diving
> >into'."    Hmm I wonder what movie he's been watching  ...       -----
> >Original Message -----     From:    Steven    Williams    To:
> >aussie-weather at world.std.com       Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 5:15
> >AM   Subject: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
> >   There is a nice picture on the front cover of the    Christchurch 
>press
> >of a tornado just SE of the city.
> >http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/thepress/0,2106,2093162a6009,00.html       A
> >F1 tornado did minor property damage in    Aucklands western suburbs
> >friday. Worst affected house had
>
>Yes indeed a great shot of the tornado which rated as F1 in my books.
>I videoed it from the other side, looking south and it did look menacing
>although it had lifted back up into the cloud before I managed to get to
>the site where it was.
>About 20 minutes previous to that I did observe and filmed a smaller funnel
>roughly about the West Melton area along the same line of cloud. It was
>hazy though.
>I'm beginning to wonder, now, if it was in someways a, and excuse me for
>this quote, I know how you hate this word on this list - a mini-supercell
>development????????
>It was an interesting day weather-wize, especially after the NE kicked in
>just before noon.
>Things began to happen in all directions with the first clap of thunder
>overhead about 30 minutes after. Things were happening relatively quickly.
>The development of the cloud that produced the tornado was after the first
>lots of thunder which moved away to the east over the Port Hills.
>I noticed huge uplifts and massive Cb top. Thunder was rumbling away mostly
>in the cloud, but  it was getting darker and I thought I would move close
>toward where the storm was developing.
>What I filmed was the tornado about 5 miles away. A similar tornado passed
>through the Halswell area on January 19th 1983. A bit more closer to where
>i filmed. The 1983 tornado did $3 million dollars worth of damage. This one
>was over farmland so less damage occured.
>A one in 20 year event for Canterbury, New Zealand !!!
>
>JohnGaul
>NZTS
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


_________________________________________________________________
Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!  Try MSN. 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-flowed>
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:23:33 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


P.S.S.S. Sorry, It's usually the best time to pinch your neighbours paper
too!

> P.P.S. The tidal influences quoted at around dawn and dusk (+/- 2 hours)
can
> easily be accounted for by solar radiation minima and maxima...i.e it's
not
> only darkest before the dawn, it's also usually coldest...



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 19:41:53 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Wx-Chase <WX-CHASE at listserv.uiuc.edu>,
        Aus-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Monster Storms & Gustfront From Wide Bay & Lightning Show!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi everyone,

I've uploaded some new chase reports...

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/26_10_02ac.html
Dayboro CC/crawler show

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/27_10_02ac.html
Severe storm near Biggenden - massive cell!  Gale force inflow into it,
produced winds around 100km/h...trees snapped in half etc.

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/27_10_02-01ac.html
Later that day...more storms, awesome mammatus, massive gustfront also! 
Topped off by a squall line that gave a great lightning show

Also, I've added 3D radar for the October 9 Border Range Supercell
(thanks to the Bureau), great BWER!

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/09_10_02ac.html

See:

http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/02-03/index.html for the
remainder of this season's chase reports!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:25:43 +1100
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Raob 5.2
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi all.  Raob 5.2 development continues, and the features continue to
grow.  For those who may be interested, I have put up a fairly
comprehensive set of screen grabs of the analysis of Brisbane's Monday
morning trace at http://homepages.ihug.com.au/~ventus45/Raob52/
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:29:58 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
X-Mailer: WorldClient 6.0.7
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Bussy, sometimes your short contributions are almost naughty.  But keep 
it up.  I love to get a good grin from them!
Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:23:33 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere

> P.S.S.S. Sorry, It's usually the best time to pinch your neighbours
> paper
> too!
> 
> > P.P.S. The tidal influences quoted at around dawn and dusk (+/- 2
> hours)
> can
> > easily be accounted for by solar radiation minima and maxima...i.e
> it's
> not
> > only darkest before the dawn, it's also usually coldest...
> 
> 
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> +
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> -

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From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:21:39 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


The next Victorian ASWA meeting will be a barbeque to be held at:

** Location: Bellbird Picnic area - off Yarra Boulevard, Kew (see map -
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/barbeque.htm look for the red cross south
of the freeway near the river)

** Time: Saturday 9th November starting at 11am with cricket / frisbee /
football

** Menu: To be followed by a sumptuous barbeque cooked by 'expert
barbeque chef' Macca (and helpers)

** Attendees: members, friends and family all most welcome

** Donation: $2 per head

** Please note - there may not be formal presentations at this meeting,
but if we can find a powerpoint on a gumtree, well......

Please RSVP cadence at australianskynweather.com by Thursday 7th November

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------







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From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:33:21 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ok - well as I said my name is Craig and my interest in weather comes
primarily from my involvement in the State Emergency Service as a volunteer.
I would say I have a fairly limited technical knowledge of weather given the
in depth nature of some of the posts here.  It will be good to gain some
more knowledge.

My part of the world is Pine Rivers Shire which is to the immediate North of
Brisbane.

Craig

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara" <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 7:08 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Hi Third...
>
> As is the usual case on this list in order to welcome ALL the new
'posters'
> to the list (perhaps at an awkward time, could you please tell us a little
> about yourselves: where you are from, what you do, your age, your
favourite
> weather and how you got interested in weather in the first place.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 06:17 AM 29/10/2002 +1000, you wrote:
> >Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy e-mail
> >address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the
SES.
> >
> >Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they were
> >taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
> >
> >Craig
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Evening all
> > >
> > > Thanks for you comments guys
> > >
> > > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the
> >night
> > >
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> > >
> > > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
> >lightning
> > > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart
from
> > > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> >(digital),
> > > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > >
> > >
> > > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > > Les
> > > >
> > > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > > >
> > > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > > >(Stargazer)
> > > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being
and
> >has
> > > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Phil
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
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> >your
> > > >  message.
> > >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:35:39 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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A near BBQ at the meatworks you reckon !

thanks - I know that area well

Craig

----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 7:19 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> G'day Craig
>
> Welcome to the list
>
> The first 3 were taken from the D'aguilar Highway about 25-30km's (i
guess)
> east of Kilkoy on Saturday night- the mountain the bolts are striking is
Mt
> Archer.  The fourth was taken 2-3k's east of Kilkoy on a side road.  The
> bolts would have come down very close to the meatworks on the edge of
town.
> Anyone working there at the time would have known about it that's for
sure!
>
> Cheers
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 6:17 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
>
> > Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy
e-mail
> > address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the
> SES.
> >
> > Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they were
> > taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
> >
> > Craig
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Evening all
> > >
> > > Thanks for you comments guys
> > >
> > > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from the
> > night
> > >
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> > >
> > > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
> > lightning
> > > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart
> from
> > > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> > (digital),
> > > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > >
> > >
> > > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > > Les
> > > >
> > > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > > >
> > > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > > >(Stargazer)
> > > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being
and
> > has
> > > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Phil
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
>
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > > >  message.
> > >
>   -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> your
> > >  message.
> >
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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>
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From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:44:55 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Phil,

Nothing very exciting about that really.  it's actually my second e-mail
address (i use it when I subscribe to all sorts of things - that way if  I
end up involved in something i don't want to be I can cancel the address and
the people I know can contact me on my primary address - typing that makes
me think I may be a wee bit paranoid !!)

Anyway - basically I grabbed it out of a book of the scripts to Monty
Python's flying circus.  Just some obscure character.

Didn't really want to know all that did you ?

Craig

----- Original Message -----
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 11:50 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!


> Craig,  welcome to the list.  I know this is off-topic, but I would love
> to hear the story of how you came to have an e-mail address like that.
>
> Phil
> <><
>
> International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:06 +1000
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
>
> > Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy
> > e-mail
> > address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in the
> > SES.
> >
> > Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they
> > were
> > taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
> >
> > Craig
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> >
> > > Evening all
> > >
> > > Thanks for you comments guys
> > >
> > > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one hit, 13
> > > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots from
> > the
> > night
> > >
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by TM)
> > >
> > > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show the
> > lightning
> > > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched apart
> > from
> > > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> > (digital),
> > > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of F4.5
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > >
> > >
> > > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one strike
> > > > Les
> > > >
> > > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > > >
> > > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > > >(Stargazer)
> > > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time being
> > and
> > has
> > > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Phil
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body
> > of
> > > your
> > > > >  message.
> > > >
> >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > >
> > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> > your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > >  message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> > +
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> >  message.
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> > -
>
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From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: "weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: wind gust
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 06:05:57 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>I have a question (I think 
I know the answer but want to test it)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>For those of you in SE Qld 
- a few years ago I was camping with friends at Burton's Well - A campsite on 
the NW side of the Bunya Mountains near Kingaroy.&nbsp; A thunderstorm developed 
late in the afternoon and came over the mountain from the SW as they do.&nbsp; 
The lower areas of some the appeared to be at maybe double (pure guess) the tree 
height&nbsp;and rushed overhead at a tremendous rate of knots.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>As the storm rushed over 
the escarpment there was an incredible&nbsp;(but quite localised) gust of wind 
from the NE (the opposite directionfrom where the storm was approaching).&nbsp; 
Strong enough that it destroyed 3 tents (including my own).&nbsp; It was however 
such a localised gust that other tents (including open tarps on poles) were left 
unscathed.&nbsp; We then went on to have a lovely storm with wind and 
hail.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>My uneducated assumption 
was that as the storm crossed over the mountain at low level it compressed the 
air on the Eastern side creating the 'backdraft' of wind that gave us an excuse 
to buy a new tent.&nbsp; Is that a good assumption</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT 
face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>?&nbsp; and any ideas on why it was so 
localised - the strip of damage couldn't have been more than 15metres wide with 
very flimsy structures to either side completely untouched.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#000080 size=2>Craig</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jason Beer" <jasonbeer at minmail.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: road wind 
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100
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<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
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<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Not 
related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of something.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>When&nbsp;I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you will hit 
a very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 50 - 200 meters 
wide.(long? as you drive through it)</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>It is 
so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the wrong side of the road. Thank 
goodness the roads are not busy. But it may explain the occasional head on 
crash.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Do any 
of you educated on weather people explain this? Is it just a freak gust or is it 
a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it is a river of wind does anyone know 
how long they may stream for? kms and time wise.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>No, I 
do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of occurance.&nbsp;&nbsp;So 
if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any indication other than it 
was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - cows, horses, camels, roos, 
pigs etc etc&nbsp;;-)&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>thanks</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=020082820-29102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Jas</FONT></SPAN></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:18:47 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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The next Victorian ASWA meeting will be a barbeque to be held at:

** Location: Bellbird Picnic area - Yarra Boulevard, KEW not far from the
Eastern Freeway (see link for map -
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/barbeque.htm look for the red cross south of
the freeway near the river)
** Time: Saturday 9th November starting at 11am with cricket / frisbee /
football
** Menu: a sumptuous barbeque cooked by 'expert barbeque chef'  Macca (and
helpers)
** Attendees: ASWA members, friends and family all most welcome
** Donation: $2 per head
** Available on the day: ASWA car stickers, caps, shirts

Please RSVP cadence at australianskynweather.com by Thursday 7th November to
allow us to cater for the event.

NB: there will be no formal presentations at this meeting...unless we find a
powerpoint on a tree........

Look forward to seeing all of you there!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: road wind
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:37:28 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Oct 2002 21:37:29.0008 (UTC) FILETIME=[615B2B00:01C27F93]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Could have been an invisible dust devil<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Jason Beer" <JASONBEER at MINMAIL.NET>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: road wind 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Not related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of something. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;When I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you will hit a very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 50 - 200 meters wide.(long? as you drive through it) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;It is so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the wrong side of the road. Thank goodness the roads are not busy. But it may explain the occasional head on crash. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Do any of you educated on weather people explain this? Is it just a freak gust or is it a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it is a river of wind does anyone know how long they may stream for? kms and time wise. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;No, I do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of occurance. So if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any indication other than it was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - cows, horses, camels, roos, pigs etc etc ;-) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;thanks 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Jas 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!  Try MSN. <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMXEN/2020">Click Here</a> </html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-html>
From: "Jason Beer" <jasonbeer at minmail.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: road wind
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 23:29:29 +0100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<BODY>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=300402722-29102002>No I 
don´t think so. There was plenty of loose dirt around the road and it was not 
disturbed. Indicating to me that it was steady blow. This happened on much more 
than one occasion.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=300402722-29102002>cheers</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
class=300402722-29102002>Jas</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>michael 
  king<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 10:37 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: road 
  wind<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV>
  <P>Could have been an invisible dust devil<BR><BR></P></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Jason Beer" <JASONBEER at MINMAIL.NET>
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: road wind 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Not related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of 
  something. 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;When I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you will 
  hit a very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 50 - 200 
  meters wide.(long? as you drive through it) 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;It is so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the wrong 
  side of the road. Thank goodness the roads are not busy. But it may explain 
  the occasional head on crash. 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Do any of you educated on weather people explain this? Is it 
  just a freak gust or is it a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it is a 
  river of wind does anyone know how long they may stream for? kms and time 
  wise. 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;No, I do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of 
  occurance. So if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any 
  indication other than it was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - 
  cows, horses, camels, roos, pigs etc etc ;-) 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;thanks 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;Jas 
  <DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=all>
  <HR>
  Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!&nbsp; Try MSN. <A 
  href="http://g.msn.com/8HMXEN/2020">Click Here</A> 
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  unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with 
  "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. 
  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:38:43 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Kieth: Hmmm very strange- I have winzip and it extracted fine for me???

Either way I have put it in zip rather than gnuzip format

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.zip [1Mb]

if you still have problems send me an e-mail and I’ll put the unzipped
version up i


Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
descriptions ( I’ll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )

“Slightly less rainfall”
“Queensland will have a changed month”
“rain looks possible”
“may see some falls”
“even less rain than last month”
”could be wet”
”far less rain”
”chances of rain” 
“driest periods”
“possible shower”
“good rain”
“changeable skies”
“mostly dry”
“more of Tasmania's rain”
“a fraction of the amount received in September”
“some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice”
“brief unsettlement”
“Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . .”
“Melbournes weather will be changeable”
“may not see any [rain-SIC] at all”
“Some rain look possible . . .“
“no real rain”
“a rather dryish month”
“could be wettish”
“significant falls”

Thanks
James
p.s. what did you think of the tornado analysis?

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 5:27 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.

James,
Would it be possible for you to send the excel file in .ZIP format? I
would like to run the stats test we were referring to but I only have
WinZip and it gives me error messages.
Thanks
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
to be virus free.
 
 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: James Holbeach 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 4:56 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.

Ok I've kept my end of the bargain I analysed tornado data. . . . it is
amazing what you can find on the net if you look hard enough!! LOL
I got the data from here
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/
Annoyingly, it does not have a single file for all states, but I figured
Texas gets enough tornadoes to sink a ship, so I just analyzed Texas.
Between 1950 and 1995, Texas had 5934 Tornodic events (made that word up
:D), of which 5925 were classified as tornados. Again I simply
calculated the moon age at each event, and then produced a plot showing
the number of tornados between particular ages.

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist.gif
and the distribution produced by a set of random numbers
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist-rand.gif
While there does seem to be a very slight tendency for tornadoes to form
near the end/beginning of the moon age, no solid conclusions could be
drawn from this as it could be still due to statistical error.
 
To put these results in another way
There is a 20.2% chance of a tornado between moon age 0-5.9days
There is a 19.5% chance of a tornado between moon age 5.9-11.8days
There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 12-17.7days
There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 17.7-23.6days
There is a 21.7% chance of a tornado between moon age 23.6-29.5days
However there is a statistical 1.3% error in each of those figures
(1/root(N))- I think that is the right way to do it- it has been a while
since I did this stuff :).
It DEFINITELY shows that there is no significant relationship between
tornado formation and the phase of the moon.
Oh and Kieth, I'll give it a shot, but I have deliberately done it this
way so that everyone can easily understand it.
The spreadsheet is available. It is MUCH better annotated than the
cyclone one. The cyclone one required a few tricks to extract the data,
but this one is much simpler.
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls.gz [0.99Mb] Much smaller :) is a
4.9Mb Excel file unzipped
Hope this helps 
Cheers
James
James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 9:44 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast
Here's my end of the bargain.
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: road wind
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:14:03 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
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<BODY>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>Hi 
Jas,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>I 
think the answer to both the desert wind and the tent wind is a vortex action, 
i.e, a willy willy in&nbsp; the first and a likely gustnado in the 
second.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>The 
fact is that when a vortex is travelling fast enough, so that it's&nbsp;forward 
motion is&nbsp;close to the speed&nbsp;of rotating inflow at ground 
level,&nbsp;it will appear visually as a narrow straight line gust instead of a 
vortex because the forward motion has the effect of cancelling out one side of 
the rotation and reinforcing the other with repect to the&nbsp;ground (the same 
thing happens in tropical cyclones).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>It is 
for example quite possible to have a very weak tornado or willy willy with 
rotating inflow at say 60kph.&nbsp; It is also quite possible&nbsp;for it to be 
moving laterally at 60kph, (many storms move faster than this, speeds of up to 
80+kph are not unknown in SEQ).&nbsp;&nbsp;So for&nbsp;such a vortex you would 
observe a&nbsp;narrow&nbsp;apparently straight line wind zone at 120kph which is 
quite&nbsp;devastating.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>The 
core of both a willy willy and gustnado may be very small and only a few metres 
in diameter, thus you have the phenomena observed.&nbsp; (also may be a lot 
larger, a recent willy willy at Mt. Crosby&nbsp;had a 100m 
diameter).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>My own 
observations of sudden brief strong winds on&nbsp;calm sunny days leads me to 
suspect that the phenomena is very common, in that many willy willies actually 
manifest as an apparently narrow mainly straight line gusts.&nbsp; I also 
suspect that many a narrow 'straight line' damage path associated with a storm 
and attributed to a microburst, is actually tornadic in 
origin.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>When 
evaluating damage paths for evidence of a tornado, I believe it is important to 
know what at what speed the storm was travelling at, usually easily obtained 
from radar loops.&nbsp; If you had for example a storm front sweeping throgh at 
80kph, then to actually observe typical tornado like damage such as trees felled 
at all angles, you probably would need a tornado with winds&nbsp;well in excess 
of&nbsp;200kph).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002>John.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002>&gt;snip</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original 
Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Jason 
Beer<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 30, 2002 8:29 AM<BR><B>To:</B> 
aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: road 
wind<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"></FONT>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN class=300402722-29102002>No I 
  don´t think so. There was plenty of loose dirt around the road and it was not 
  disturbed. Indicating to me that it was steady blow. This happened on much 
  more than one occasion.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=300402722-29102002>cheers</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2><SPAN 
  class=300402722-29102002>Jas</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE>
    <DIV align=left class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
    aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
    [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>michael 
    king<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 10:37 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
    aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: road 
    wind<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>
    <DIV>
    <P>Could have been an invisible dust devil<BR><BR></P></DIV>
    <DIV></DIV>
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Jason Beer" <JASONBEER at MINMAIL.NET>
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: road wind 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Not related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of 
    something. 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;When I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you 
    will hit a very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 50 
    - 200 meters wide.(long? as you drive through it) 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;It is so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the 
    wrong side of the road. Thank goodness the roads are not busy. But it may 
    explain the occasional head on crash. 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Do any of you educated on weather people explain this? Is it 
    just a freak gust or is it a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it is a 
    river of wind does anyone know how long they may stream for? kms and time 
    wise. 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;No, I do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of 
    occurance. So if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any 
    indication other than it was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - 
    cows, horses, camels, roos, pigs etc etc ;-) 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;thanks 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
    <DIV></DIV>&gt;Jas 
    <DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=all>
    <HR>
    Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!&nbsp; Try MSN. <A 
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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 11:25:42 +1000
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Hmm James,

Perhaps then you would like to define some of the BoM's favourites then,
such as:

"mainly fine"
"a shower or two about"
"scattered showers"
"unsettled at first then fine"
"unsettled"
"a few light showers about the coast"
etc..

What is good for the goose is surely good for the gander?  Why should you
expect Ken to offer up more definitive descriptions when no other forecaster
in world does.  Fair go mate.

John.

>snip

Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
descriptions ( I’ll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )

“Slightly less rainfall”
“Queensland will have a changed month”
“rain looks possible”
“may see some falls”
“even less rain than last month”
”could be wet”
”far less rain”
”chances of rain”
“driest periods”
“possible shower”
“good rain”
“changeable skies”
“mostly dry”
“more of Tasmania's rain”
“a fraction of the amount received in September”
“some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice”
“brief unsettlement”
“Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . .”
“Melbournes weather will be changeable”
“may not see any [rain-SIC] at all”
“Some rain look possible . . .“
“no real rain”
“a rather dryish month”
“could be wettish”
“significant falls”

Thanks
James

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 09:38:46 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: road wind
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Back in the seventies, I was used as one of several drivers in an 
experiment conducted by Melbourne University to try to understand just 
this phenomenon.  It was believed that otherwise unexplainable head-on 
collisions in desert areas were being caused not so much by driver error 
as by sudden, unpredictable, short bursts of very strong wind blowing a 
car suddenly onto the wrong side of the road.  It was also believed that 
many single vehicle accidents might be caused by the same phenomenon 
blowing a vehicle off the road altogether.  The theory was that better 
road markings and guideposts would help drivers to respond more rapidly 
to the effects of these sudden invisible wind gusts.
We used a Holden Station Wagon with the rear seats removed and filled to 
capacity with computers, dozens of car batteries, and special gear to 
translate the battery power into whatever power the computers needed.  
It handled dreadfully because of the weight.
There was no mechanical connection between the steering wheel and the 
front wheels - the computers would measure what the driver was trying to 
do and pass the appropriate messages on to the servo motors that 
controlled steering, suspension, etc.
The sudden gusts of wind were simulated by computer programs which 
suddenly moved the car sideways across the road - and we were supposed 
to correct for the sudden movement.
The experiment ended prematurely on the second day out when one of the 
other drivers involved rolled the car and wrecked it.
The test track was set out like a Victorian country two-lane road with 
broken white lines marked down the centre line.  About one third of the 
loop had no guide posts at all.  Another third had regular white 
guideposts.  The rest had both guideposts and solid white lines painted 
at the edges of the road as well as the broken line down the middle.  We 
had not been told about the different markings before the experiment.
Even the first two days of work had revealed that all drivers recovered 
from the artificial wind gusts much more quickly when the solid white 
lines were painted along the edge of the road, so it was recommended to 
the various governments of the day that lines be painted along the sides 
of country roads.

Regarding the wind phenomenon, I have encountered this many times in 
desert areas and it can be quite frightening if it happens right when a 
road train is coming towards you in the opposite direction as happened 
to me one day just north of Tennant Creek.  Missed the road train but 
almost pooped myself!

What the cause of these sudden winds is, I have never been able to work 
out, but I imagine that they are similar in some way to the "windshear" 
that airport controllers have to worry about.

Leaving Coober Pedy around 11am one morning in November 1982 in a RFDS 
aircraft, we had climbed only about 20 feet up from the ground and were 
still above the dirt runway when a sudden cross-wind caught us and the 
plane lurched violently sideways to the right as the port wing lifted 
high into the air.  The pilot was half expecting it, as it had happened 
to him there once before, but it was still a scary few moments as he 
brought the plane back under control and continued climbing.  There was 
no sign of any dust being blown by it even though the ground was very 
dusty, so it was not a dust devil.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Jason Beer" <jasonbeer at minmail.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100
Subject: aus-wx: road wind

> Not related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of something.
> 
> When I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you will hit a
> very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 50 - 200
> meters wide.(long? as you drive through it)
> 
> It is so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the wrong side of
> the road. Thank goodness the roads are not busy. But it may explain the
> occasional head on crash.
> 
> Do any of you educated on weather people explain this? Is it just a
> freak gust or is it a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it is a
> river of wind does anyone know how long they may stream for? kms and
> time wise.
> 
> No, I do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of occurance. 
> So if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any indication
> other than it was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - cows,
> horses, camels, roos, pigs etc etc ;-) 
> 
> thanks
> 
> Jas
> 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Tina Jones" <bjones14 at postoffice.csu.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: road wind - now Snow wind!!!
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 12:41:27 +1100
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=GENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>OK 
earlier this year, I was on a T bar at Perisher Blue.&nbsp; Mitchell T bar to be 
precise.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I had 
my daughter, on her snowboard, in between my legs while I was on 
skis.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>We saw 
a "willy willy" coming towards us, but thought nothing of 
it.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>WOW!!!!&nbsp; How wrong were we!!!!!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>It was 
terrifying, we could see nothing, I was being dragged towards the T bar tower 
and my daughter was being dragged out from between my legs!!!!&nbsp; Luckily it 
passed before I was dragged into the T bar tower.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I was 
using every ounce of strength I had to hold the T bar and my daughter and try 
and stay upright!!!&nbsp; I can assure you, I'm no weakling.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>If I 
ever see one coming again, I will bail!!!!!!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Cheers,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=446063701-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Tina.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
  aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>John 
  Woodbridge<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October 2002 12:14 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: road 
  wind<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>Hi 
  Jas,</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>I 
  think the answer to both the desert wind and the tent wind is a vortex action, 
  i.e, a willy willy in&nbsp; the first and a likely gustnado in the 
  second.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>The 
  fact is that when a vortex is travelling fast enough, so that 
  it's&nbsp;forward motion is&nbsp;close to the speed&nbsp;of rotating inflow at 
  ground level,&nbsp;it will appear visually as a narrow straight line gust 
  instead of a vortex because the forward motion has the effect of cancelling 
  out one side of the rotation and reinforcing the other with repect to 
  the&nbsp;ground (the same thing happens in tropical 
  cyclones).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>It 
  is for example quite possible to have a very weak tornado or willy willy with 
  rotating inflow at say 60kph.&nbsp; It is also quite possible&nbsp;for it to 
  be moving laterally at 60kph, (many storms move faster than this, speeds of up 
  to 80+kph are not unknown in SEQ).&nbsp;&nbsp;So for&nbsp;such a vortex you 
  would observe a&nbsp;narrow&nbsp;apparently straight line wind zone at 120kph 
  which is quite&nbsp;devastating.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>The 
  core of both a willy willy and gustnado may be very small and only a few 
  metres in diameter, thus you have the phenomena observed.&nbsp; (also may be a 
  lot larger, a recent willy willy at Mt. Crosby&nbsp;had a 100m 
  diameter).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>My 
  own observations of sudden brief strong winds on&nbsp;calm sunny days leads me 
  to suspect that the phenomena is very common, in that many willy willies 
  actually manifest as an apparently narrow mainly straight line gusts.&nbsp; I 
  also suspect that many a narrow 'straight line' damage path associated with a 
  storm and attributed to a microburst, is actually tornadic in 
  origin.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=862412400-30102002>When 
  evaluating damage paths for evidence of a tornado, I believe it is important 
  to know what at what speed the storm was travelling at, usually easily 
  obtained from radar loops.&nbsp; If you had for example a storm front sweeping 
  throgh at 80kph, then to actually observe typical tornado like damage such as 
  trees felled at all angles, you probably would need a tornado with 
  winds&nbsp;well in excess of&nbsp;200kph).</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002>John.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002>&gt;snip</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
  class=862412400-30102002></SPAN></FONT><FONT face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original 
  Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Jason 
  Beer<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 30, 2002 8:29 AM<BR><B>To:</B> 
  aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: road 
  wind<BR><BR></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"></FONT>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=300402722-29102002>No 
    I don´t think so. There was plenty of loose dirt around the road and it was 
    not disturbed. Indicating to me that it was steady blow. This happened on 
    much more than one occasion.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
    class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
    class=300402722-29102002>cheers</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
    class=300402722-29102002></SPAN></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN 
    class=300402722-29102002>Jas</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE>
      <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
      aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
      [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>michael 
      king<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, October 29, 2002 10:37 PM<BR><B>To:</B> 
      aussie-weather at world.std.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: road 
      wind<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>
      <DIV>
      <P>Could have been an invisible dust devil<BR><BR></P></DIV>
      <DIV></DIV>
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Jason Beer" <JASONBEER at MINMAIL.NET>
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: road wind 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:39:25 +0100 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Not related to Thirds wind post but it reminded me of 
      something. 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;When I have been driving in the desert, occassionally, you 
      will hit a very local channel of wind crossing the road that may only be 
      50 - 200 meters wide.(long? as you drive through it) 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;It is so strong and sudden that it can blow you onto the 
      wrong side of the road. Thank goodness the roads are not busy. But it may 
      explain the occasional head on crash. 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Do any of you educated on weather people explain this? Is 
      it just a freak gust or is it a local high velocity "river" of wind? If it 
      is a river of wind does anyone know how long they may stream for? kms and 
      time wise. 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;No, I do not know what cycle the moon was in at the time of 
      occurance. So if the moon cycle is relevant or not I cannot give any 
      indication other than it was daytime. Driving at night is very dangerous - 
      cows, horses, camels, roos, pigs etc etc ;-) 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;thanks 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt; 
      <DIV></DIV>&gt;Jas 
      <DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=all>
      <HR>
      Unlimited Internet access -- and 2 months free!&nbsp; Try MSN. <A 
      href="http://g.msn.com/8HMXEN/2020">Click Here</A> 
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</x-html>

Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 09:51:28 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic! - but now quite off-topic!
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Craig,
That's the exact reason why I also keep an additional e-mail address 
called junk at drdisk.com.hk - I can always check it after I signed up for 
something I really want to be in and the rest of the time it saves me 
from reading through vast loads of junk mail.
It's also a bit amusing when some marketing character who is using mail-
merge sends you an e-mail that starts off "My dear Junk,  I was just 
thinking of you, Junk, the other day when ..."

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 05:44:55 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!

> Phil,
> 
> Nothing very exciting about that really.  it's actually my second
> e-mail
> address (i use it when I subscribe to all sorts of things - that way if
>  I
> end up involved in something i don't want to be I can cancel the
> address and
> the people I know can contact me on my primary address - typing that
> makes
> me think I may be a wee bit paranoid !!)
> 
> Anyway - basically I grabbed it out of a book of the scripts to Monty
> Python's flying circus.  Just some obscure character.
> 
> Didn't really want to know all that did you ?
> 
> Craig
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 11:50 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> 
> 
> > Craig,  welcome to the list.  I know this is off-topic, but I would
> love
> > to hear the story of how you came to have an e-mail address like
> that.
> >
> > Phil
> > <><
> >
> > International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> > Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> > Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: "Third" <third.idiot at bigpond.com.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 06:17:06 +1000
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> >
> > > Well this is my first post here - my names Craig (pardon the dodgy
> > > e-mail
> > > address) and my interest in stuff weather comes from involvement in
> the
> > > SES.
> > >
> > > Ben they are excellent lightning shots - I know you said where they
> > > were
> > > taken in an earlier post - could you remind me where ?
> > >
> > > Craig
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 9:24 PM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > >
> > >
> > > > Evening all
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for you comments guys
> > > >
> > > > It's a time exposure (15 seconds) but it all came down in one
> hit, 13
> > > > seconds into the exposure.  I've uploaded a couple more shots
> from
> > > the
> > > night
> > > >
> > > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_01.jpg
> > > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_02.jpg
> > > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_03.jpg
> > > > http://asp1.cwihosting.com/~bschau/261002_04.jpg
> > > > (the fourth is a smaller version of the close strike posted by
> TM)
> > > >
> > > > Note the first three shots have been cropped to center or show
> the
> > > lightning
> > > > better, as opposed to the fourth which is completely untouched
> apart
> > > from
> > > > being resized for the internet.  The camera used was a Cannon G2
> > > (digital),
> > > > 15 second exposures at between 38 and 110mm zoom and appature of
> F4.5
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 8:30 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Can somone clarify if the photo is time exposure or was one
> strike
> > > > > Les
> > > > >
> > > > > At 07:56 PM 28/10/2002, you wrote:
> > > > > >Found it's way to my desktop too! ;)
> > > > > >
> > > > > >Regs. Paul.
> > > > > >(Stargazer)
> > > > > >http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >----- Original Message -----
> > > > > >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> > > > > >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > > >Sent: Monday, October 28, 2002 1:22 AM
> > > > > >Subject: RE: aus-wx: excellent lightning pic!
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I agree with Paul.  It's now on my desktop for the time
> being
> > > and
> > > has
> > > > > > > aroused comments from all who have walked past my computer.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Phil
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > >
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> body
> > > of
> > > > your
> > > > > >  message.
> > > > >
> > >
> > >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
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> > >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> > > >
> > >
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> > > 
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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:34:00 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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I did the random thing on the fly, and didn't save it- but I re-did it
for you :)
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/RandomDistribution.xls [990kb]

And John: I agree completely, however I wanted to make sure that I
interpret  Ken's descriptions in a manner he his happy with. When it
comes to comparing with the BoM's forecasts, I'll use their definitions
for each term.
The BoM Glossary defines each of the terms used in their forecast, I
guess I was looking for Ken to do the same. If he does not I'll assume
they are the same as the BoM ones. 
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/ 

But some of his descriptions I just don’t know what to make of?

James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of James
Holbeach
Sent: Wednesday, 30 October 2002 11:39 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)


Kieth: Hmmm very strange- I have winzip and it extracted fine for me???

Either way I have put it in zip rather than gnuzip format

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.zip [1Mb]

if you still have problems send me an e-mail and I’ll put the unzipped
version up i


Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
descriptions ( I’ll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )

“Slightly less rainfall”
“Queensland will have a changed month”
“rain looks possible”
“may see some falls”
“even less rain than last month”
”could be wet”
”far less rain”
”chances of rain” 
“driest periods”
“possible shower”
“good rain”
“changeable skies”
“mostly dry”
“more of Tasmania's rain”
“a fraction of the amount received in September”
“some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice”
“brief unsettlement”
“Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . .”
“Melbournes weather will be changeable”
“may not see any [rain-SIC] at all”
“Some rain look possible . . .“
“no real rain”
“a rather dryish month”
“could be wettish”
“significant falls”

Thanks
James
p.s. what did you think of the tornado analysis?

James Holbeach
--------------------------------
Trapdoor Ski Club 
Mt. Hotham, Australia
ph. 0417 553 757
http://www.trapdoor.com.au
--------------------------------
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
Barnett
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 5:27 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.

James,
Would it be possible for you to send the excel file in .ZIP format? I
would like to run the stats test we were referring to but I only have
WinZip and it gives me error messages.
Thanks
Keith Barnett
Weather fanatic and classical musician
Website: http://www.wthrman.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------
This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
to be virus free.
 
 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: James Holbeach 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 4:56 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.

Ok I've kept my end of the bargain I analysed tornado data. . . . it is
amazing what you can find on the net if you look hard enough!! LOL
I got the data from here
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/
Annoyingly, it does not have a single file for all states, but I figured
Texas gets enough tornadoes to sink a ship, so I just analyzed Texas.
Between 1950 and 1995, Texas had 5934 Tornodic events (made that word up
:D), of which 5925 were classified as tornados. Again I simply
calculated the moon age at each event, and then produced a plot showing
the number of tornados between particular ages.

http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist.gif
and the distribution produced by a set of random numbers
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist-rand.gif
While there does seem to be a very slight tendency for tornadoes to form
near the end/beginning of the moon age, no solid conclusions could be
drawn from this as it could be still due to statistical error.
 
To put these results in another way
There is a 20.2% chance of a tornado between moon age 0-5.9days
There is a 19.5% chance of a tornado between moon age 5.9-11.8days
There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 12-17.7days
There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 17.7-23.6days
There is a 21.7% chance of a tornado between moon age 23.6-29.5days
However there is a statistical 1.3% error in each of those figures
(1/root(N))- I think that is the right way to do it- it has been a while
since I did this stuff :).
It DEFINITELY shows that there is no significant relationship between
tornado formation and the phase of the moon.
Oh and Kieth, I'll give it a shot, but I have deliberately done it this
way so that everyone can easily understand it.
The spreadsheet is available. It is MUCH better annotated than the
cyclone one. The cyclone one required a few tricks to extract the data,
but this one is much simpler.
http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls.gz [0.99Mb] Much smaller :) is a
4.9Mb Excel file unzipped
Hope this helps 
Cheers
James
James Holbeach
----------------------------------------
Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
University of Melbourne, Australia
ph. +61 3 8344 6652
----------------------------------------
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 9:44 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast
Here's my end of the bargain.
regards
Ken
www.predictweather.com

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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:07:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: BoM Defintion of Supercell (was) Re: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hmm...I've never seen their online defintion for a supercell before. 
Not one that I agree with...

Supercell	A persistent, single, intense updraught and downdraught
coexisting in a thunderstorm.

No mention of a mesocyclone...but perhaps it is just for those not
overly intersted in the weather.

AC

James Holbeach wrote:
> 
> I did the random thing on the fly, and didn't save it- but I re-did it
> for you :)
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/RandomDistribution.xls [990kb]
> 
> And John: I agree completely, however I wanted to make sure that I
> interpret  Ken's descriptions in a manner he his happy with. When it
> comes to comparing with the BoM's forecasts, I'll use their definitions
> for each term.
> The BoM Glossary defines each of the terms used in their forecast, I
> guess I was looking for Ken to do the same. If he does not I'll assume
> they are the same as the BoM ones.
> http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/
> 
> But some of his descriptions I just don’t know what to make of?
> 
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of James
> Holbeach
> Sent: Wednesday, 30 October 2002 11:39 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
> 
> Kieth: Hmmm very strange- I have winzip and it extracted fine for me???
> 
> Either way I have put it in zip rather than gnuzip format
> 
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.zip [1Mb]
> 
> if you still have problems send me an e-mail and I’ll put the unzipped
> version up i
> 
> Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
> descriptions ( I’ll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
> analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )
> 
> “Slightly less rainfall”
> “Queensland will have a changed month”
> “rain looks possible”
> “may see some falls”
> “even less rain than last month”
> ”could be wet”
> ”far less rain”
> ”chances of rain”
> “driest periods”
> “possible shower”
> “good rain”
> “changeable skies”
> “mostly dry”
> “more of Tasmania's rain”
> “a fraction of the amount received in September”
> “some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice”
> “brief unsettlement”
> “Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . .”
> “Melbournes weather will be changeable”
> “may not see any [rain-SIC] at all”
> “Some rain look possible . . .“
> “no real rain”
> “a rather dryish month”
> “could be wettish”
> “significant falls”
> 
> Thanks
> James
> p.s. what did you think of the tornado analysis?
> 
> James Holbeach
> --------------------------------
> Trapdoor Ski Club
> Mt. Hotham, Australia
> ph. 0417 553 757
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au
> --------------------------------
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Keith
> Barnett
> Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 5:27 PM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.
> 
> James,
> Would it be possible for you to send the excel file in .ZIP format? I
> would like to run the stats test we were referring to but I only have
> WinZip and it gives me error messages.
> Thanks
> Keith Barnett
> Weather fanatic and classical musician
> Website: http://www.wthrman.com
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ---------------------------------------------------------
> This message has been scanned by Norton AntiVirus 2002 and is certified
> to be virus free.
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: James Holbeach
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 4:56 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Tornados v Moon Age.
> 
> Ok I've kept my end of the bargain I analysed tornado data. . . . it is
> amazing what you can find on the net if you look hard enough!! LOL
> I got the data from here
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/
> Annoyingly, it does not have a single file for all states, but I figured
> Texas gets enough tornadoes to sink a ship, so I just analyzed Texas.
> Between 1950 and 1995, Texas had 5934 Tornodic events (made that word up
> :D), of which 5925 were classified as tornados. Again I simply
> calculated the moon age at each event, and then produced a plot showing
> the number of tornados between particular ages.
> 
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist.gif
> and the distribution produced by a set of random numbers
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/TornadoHist-rand.gif
> While there does seem to be a very slight tendency for tornadoes to form
> near the end/beginning of the moon age, no solid conclusions could be
> drawn from this as it could be still due to statistical error.
> 
> To put these results in another way
> There is a 20.2% chance of a tornado between moon age 0-5.9days
> There is a 19.5% chance of a tornado between moon age 5.9-11.8days
> There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 12-17.7days
> There is a 19.3% chance of a tornado between moon age 17.7-23.6days
> There is a 21.7% chance of a tornado between moon age 23.6-29.5days
> However there is a statistical 1.3% error in each of those figures
> (1/root(N))- I think that is the right way to do it- it has been a while
> since I did this stuff :).
> It DEFINITELY shows that there is no significant relationship between
> tornado formation and the phase of the moon.
> Oh and Kieth, I'll give it a shot, but I have deliberately done it this
> way so that everyone can easily understand it.
> The spreadsheet is available. It is MUCH better annotated than the
> cyclone one. The cyclone one required a few tricks to extract the data,
> but this one is much simpler.
> http://www.trapdoor.com.au/textorn.xls.gz [0.99Mb] Much smaller :) is a
> 4.9Mb Excel file unzipped
> Hope this helps
> Cheers
> James
> James Holbeach
> ----------------------------------------
> Dept. Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering
> University of Melbourne, Australia
> ph. +61 3 8344 6652
> ----------------------------------------
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of Ken Ring
> Sent: Tuesday, 29 October 2002 9:44 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: 6 months of forecast
> Here's my end of the bargain.
> regards
> Ken
> www.predictweather.com
> 
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> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:16:30 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Ken,

All you have done is redefined your boundaries of space and changed the
accepted definitions in the scientific community.  But then again, if
something doesn't fit your opinion, you make it fit your opinion so
you're always correct, of course that's "Ken's law."

But, if for a moment we decided to throw out the 50 years+ research and
PROOF of where the atmosphere exists, and call the "thermosphere"
"space" - then if "space" came closer towards us, surely it would
actually get warmer given it's so hot in the thermosphere?

Keeping in mind there is also a warm layer between the troposphere and
the stratosphere called the tropopause which again is very warm.

The troposophere (not the atmosphere) is more shallow at the poles than
it is at the equator.  However it is MORE than one mile high - it's in
the vicinity of 5-6 miles depending on the region.  But it is so cold at
the poles, that often there is an inversion where it gets 5-20C warmer
about several kilometres higher than the surface!  Once again, if this
air was brought closer to the ground it would warm the ground!  Not to
mention that as air descends to the Earth, particularly in the
tropopause it actually warms by 9.8C/km.  So your theory of bringing
colder air from space is again flawed because:

a) It's actually warmer when you ascend higher at the poles!
b) As air descends and comes closer to Earth, it will be compressed and
therefore increases in temperature by 9.8C/km.

AC

Ken Ring wrote:
> 
> > Hi Ken,
> >
> > My dearest and most humble apologies.  All of those years at university
> > and thousands of dollars of HECS fees must have gone to waste.  I'll be
> > sure to go to uni and inform my lecturers of their mistakes, and I shall
> > also contact some of the well known academic publishers such as Oxford
> > University Press and Camrbdige University Press etc who have printed
> > textbooks and inform them that the definition of the atmosphere has
> > changed in accordance with yout statement.
> If you say so, but don't get too drastic, Anthony, they were only doing
> their best..
> 
> > In space there is no air...
> Correct
> 
> > in the thermosphere there is air.
> Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.
> 
> > Furthermore, there's not much air in the mesosphere or
> > stratosphere, should I also inform my lecturers and scholars that
> > they're not a part of the atmosphere too?
> Suit yourself.
> 
> > Where would you like the
> > atmosphere to end, Ken?  6km up in the atmosphere and you're already
> > above half of the available air.  15-16km and you're above 90% of the
> > air, shall we call the upper part of the troposphere the end of the
> > atmosphere?
> Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger if
> viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that level
> of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density. That's the
> scale of measurement we're doing here.
> 
> > What I have a problem with is supporting
> > their method with incorrect information!!!
> Me too, same..
> 
> > There are people on this
> > list who might actually think that things you have said (for instance,
> > you once explained that the poles are colder because the coldness of
> > space is closer there than at the equator) are actually true!  This is
> > extremely wrong!
> Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the poles
> and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must surely
> accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not, then
> how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you like me
> to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and downloaded
> from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well documented
> by NASA and others.
> 
> .> It's cold there because the sun shines on it at an
> > angle so the rays aren't as strong as they're spread over a wider
> > angle.
> I agree, sure that adds to it, but it's not the whole story.
> 
> > Furthermore, when people have told you they're wrong you don't
> > believe them.  I tried the nice tactic a while ago, it didn't work.
> I see, according to the Anthony Law, just because someone tells me I'm wrong
> I have to believe them.  Doesn't seem like a scientific discussion at that
> point. Were you a bully in the school playground too?
> 
> > You
> > only seem to respond to emails with anger in them.
> No, I enjoy others too, but the angry ones tell me the writers are probably
> afraid of changing their mindsets, which is not my problem..
> 
> > Don't twist things around to make them suit your opinion...find some
> > other way of describing it, just don't describe something you've already
> > been informed as being wrong!
> I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I suggest
> you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just repeating
> off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
> And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that sincerely. We
> may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative viewpoint. I
> have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion much
> of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the much of
> the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who get
> labelled mavericks.
> 
> > > Well, some corrections are necessary here.
> > > The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it. The
> > > atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But there
> aint
> > > much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest and
> the
> > > largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's not
> as if
> > > there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured sand-in-bottle
> > > things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive
> > > extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm
> to
> > > such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the
> > > kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the
> air.
> > > Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
> > > temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or
> > > stratosphere. (ref
> > > http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
> > > "Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would
> > > actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a few air
> > > molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable
> > > heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
> > > So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands intact.
> > > Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you have
> not
> > > had the correct information.
> > > Ken
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
> > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > >
> > > > Ken,
> > > >
> > > > I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
> > > > it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
> > > > problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
> > > > that you portray.
> > > >
> > > > However things like...
> > > >
> > > > Ken Ring wrote:
> > > >  With atmospheric
> > > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> of
> > > the
> > > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets
> the
> > > cold
> > > > > of space come closer to ground level.
> > > >
> > > > Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
> > > > TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
> > > > people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> > > > atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
> > > > look at this diagram:
> > > >
> > > > http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
> > > >
> > > > There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is
> the
> > > > tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
> > > > thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
> > > > of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
> > > > getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us.
> > > > Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets
> cold!
> > > > But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.
> > > >
> > > > If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
> > > > support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
> > > > when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect
> that
> > > > is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
> > > > your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
> > > > method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is
> a
> > > > relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
> > > > why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
> > > > every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
> > > > told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
> > > > you Ken.
> > > >
> > > > AC
> > > >
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 13:18:44 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


John - the BoM comes under scrutiny for using these terms also, so it's
only fair Ken does also.

But the BoM are never so vague as to say "unsettled in Western Australia
over the next few days"  That's a very broad definition, and of course,
if so much of a shower falls in the far SW corner the and the rest of WA
bakes under 40C tempratures for the week, then Ken is "correct".

AC

John Woodbridge wrote:
> 
> Hmm James,
> 
> Perhaps then you would like to define some of the BoM's favourites then,
> such as:
> 
> "mainly fine"
> "a shower or two about"
> "scattered showers"
> "unsettled at first then fine"
> "unsettled"
> "a few light showers about the coast"
> etc..
> 
> What is good for the goose is surely good for the gander?  Why should you
> expect Ken to offer up more definitive descriptions when no other forecaster
> in world does.  Fair go mate.
> 
> John.
> 
> >snip
> 
> Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
> descriptions ( I’ll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
> analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )
> 
> “Slightly less rainfall”
> “Queensland will have a changed month”
> “rain looks possible”
> “may see some falls”
> “even less rain than last month”
> ”could be wet”
> ”far less rain”
> ”chances of rain”
> “driest periods”
> “possible shower”
> “good rain”
> “changeable skies”
> “mostly dry”
> “more of Tasmania's rain”
> “a fraction of the amount received in September”
> “some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice”
> “brief unsettlement”
> “Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . .”
> “Melbournes weather will be changeable”
> “may not see any [rain-SIC] at all”
> “Some rain look possible . . .“
> “no real rain”
> “a rather dryish month”
> “could be wettish”
> “significant falls”
> 
> Thanks
> James
> 
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 14:35:02 +1000 (GMT+1000)
From: Leslie Muir <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Another thing that i was just discussing with someone else, if the
thickness of the atmosphere plays the main role in the temperature at the
poles, what about other planets who have very thin atmpspheres, but the
temperatures at the poles are still significantly colder.
Just an intersting point, also, what about planets without significantly
large moons like mars? can the same be done??

Les


On Wed, 30 Oct 2002, Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Ken,
>
> All you have done is redefined your boundaries of space and changed the
> accepted definitions in the scientific community.  But then again, if
> something doesn't fit your opinion, you make it fit your opinion so
> you're always correct, of course that's "Ken's law."
>
> But, if for a moment we decided to throw out the 50 years+ research and
> PROOF of where the atmosphere exists, and call the "thermosphere"
> "space" - then if "space" came closer towards us, surely it would
> actually get warmer given it's so hot in the thermosphere?
>
> Keeping in mind there is also a warm layer between the troposphere and
> the stratosphere called the tropopause which again is very warm.
>
> The troposophere (not the atmosphere) is more shallow at the poles than
> it is at the equator.  However it is MORE than one mile high - it's in
> the vicinity of 5-6 miles depending on the region.  But it is so cold at
> the poles, that often there is an inversion where it gets 5-20C warmer
> about several kilometres higher than the surface!  Once again, if this
> air was brought closer to the ground it would warm the ground!  Not to
> mention that as air descends to the Earth, particularly in the
> tropopause it actually warms by 9.8C/km.  So your theory of bringing
> colder air from space is again flawed because:
>
> a) It's actually warmer when you ascend higher at the poles!
> b) As air descends and comes closer to Earth, it will be compressed and
> therefore increases in temperature by 9.8C/km.
>
> AC
>
> Ken Ring wrote:
> >
> > > Hi Ken,
> > >
> > > My dearest and most humble apologies.  All of those years at university
> > > and thousands of dollars of HECS fees must have gone to waste.  I'll be
> > > sure to go to uni and inform my lecturers of their mistakes, and I shall
> > > also contact some of the well known academic publishers such as Oxford
> > > University Press and Camrbdige University Press etc who have printed
> > > textbooks and inform them that the definition of the atmosphere has
> > > changed in accordance with yout statement.
> > If you say so, but don't get too drastic, Anthony, they were only doing
> > their best..
> >
> > > In space there is no air...
> > Correct
> >
> > > in the thermosphere there is air.
> > Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.
> >
> > > Furthermore, there's not much air in the mesosphere or
> > > stratosphere, should I also inform my lecturers and scholars that
> > > they're not a part of the atmosphere too?
> > Suit yourself.
> >
> > > Where would you like the
> > > atmosphere to end, Ken?  6km up in the atmosphere and you're already
> > > above half of the available air.  15-16km and you're above 90% of the
> > > air, shall we call the upper part of the troposphere the end of the
> > > atmosphere?
> > Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger if
> > viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that level
> > of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density. That's the
> > scale of measurement we're doing here.
> >
> > > What I have a problem with is supporting
> > > their method with incorrect information!!!
> > Me too, same..
> >
> > > There are people on this
> > > list who might actually think that things you have said (for instance,
> > > you once explained that the poles are colder because the coldness of
> > > space is closer there than at the equator) are actually true!  This is
> > > extremely wrong!
> > Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the poles
> > and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must surely
> > accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not, then
> > how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you like me
> > to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and downloaded
> > from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well documented
> > by NASA and others.
> >
> > .> It's cold there because the sun shines on it at an
> > > angle so the rays aren't as strong as they're spread over a wider
> > > angle.
> > I agree, sure that adds to it, but it's not the whole story.
> >
> > > Furthermore, when people have told you they're wrong you don't
> > > believe them.  I tried the nice tactic a while ago, it didn't work.
> > I see, according to the Anthony Law, just because someone tells me I'm wrong
> > I have to believe them.  Doesn't seem like a scientific discussion at that
> > point. Were you a bully in the school playground too?
> >
> > > You
> > > only seem to respond to emails with anger in them.
> > No, I enjoy others too, but the angry ones tell me the writers are probably
> > afraid of changing their mindsets, which is not my problem..
> >
> > > Don't twist things around to make them suit your opinion...find some
> > > other way of describing it, just don't describe something you've already
> > > been informed as being wrong!
> > I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I suggest
> > you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just repeating
> > off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
> > And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that sincerely. We
> > may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative viewpoint. I
> > have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion much
> > of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the much of
> > the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who get
> > labelled mavericks.
> >
> > > > Well, some corrections are necessary here.
> > > > The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it. The
> > > > atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But there
> > aint
> > > > much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest and
> > the
> > > > largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's not
> > as if
> > > > there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured sand-in-bottle
> > > > things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere receive
> > > > extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to warm
> > to
> > > > such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of the
> > > > kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by the
> > air.
> > > > Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
> > > > temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere or
> > > > stratosphere. (ref
> > > > http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
> > > > "Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere would
> > > > actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a few air
> > > > molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any appreciable
> > > > heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
> > > > So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands intact.
> > > > Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you have
> > not
> > > > had the correct information.
> > > > Ken
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > > >
> > > > > Ken,
> > > > >
> > > > > I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently ignored
> > > > > it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have a
> > > > > problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the extent
> > > > > that you portray.
> > > > >
> > > > > However things like...
> > > > >
> > > > > Ken Ring wrote:
> > > > >  With atmospheric
> > > > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon is out
> > of
> > > > the
> > > > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and lets
> > the
> > > > cold
> > > > > > of space come closer to ground level.
> > > > >
> > > > > Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here is
> > > > > TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This frustrates
> > > > > people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> > > > > atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?  Have a
> > > > > look at this diagram:
> > > > >
> > > > > http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
> > > > >
> > > > > There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First is
> > the
> > > > > tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the thermosphere.  The
> > > > > thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your theory
> > > > > of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we should be
> > > > > getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer to us.
> > > > > Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it gets
> > cold!
> > > > > But we have several protective layers that separates us from them.
> > > > >
> > > > > If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake don't
> > > > > support them with dribble like that (and continue to support them even
> > > > > when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I suspect
> > that
> > > > > is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the issuing of
> > > > > your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support your
> > > > > method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe there is
> > a
> > > > > relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't explain
> > > > > why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the wrong idea
> > > > > every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've been
> > > > > told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person here is
> > > > > you Ken.
> > > > >
> > > > > AC
> > > > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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X-Originating-IP: [203.208.66.43]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 04:35:21 +0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 04:35:21.0925 (UTC) FILETIME=[C1FAAF50:01C27FCD]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>

Hi Jane

I'd love to attend but unfortunately it's cricket season, and I have 
cricket.

Hope it goes well

Cheers
Les Baxter
Ballarat Weather





>From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Victorian ASWA meeting
>Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:18:47 +1100
>
>The next Victorian ASWA meeting will be a barbeque to be held at:
>
>** Location: Bellbird Picnic area - Yarra Boulevard, KEW not far from the
>Eastern Freeway (see link for map -
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com/barbeque.htm look for the red cross south of
>the freeway near the river)
>** Time: Saturday 9th November starting at 11am with cricket / frisbee /
>football
>** Menu: a sumptuous barbeque cooked by 'expert barbeque chef'  Macca (and
>helpers)
>** Attendees: ASWA members, friends and family all most welcome
>** Donation: $2 per head
>** Available on the day: ASWA car stickers, caps, shirts
>
>Please RSVP cadence at australianskynweather.com by Thursday 7th November to
>allow us to cater for the event.
>
>NB: there will be no formal presentations at this meeting...unless we find 
>a
>powerpoint on a tree........
>
>Look forward to seeing all of you there!!
>
>Jane
>
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
>Australian Sky & Weather
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: accurate description call
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:36:18 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Fair enough to question me on my terms. But I suppose I choose to leave it
vague. Longrange forecasting is different to what the BoM does, because they
openly admit being unable to do it. Therefore I must be allowed my own
complete system, along with terminology.
I don't feel I have to justify anything. I merely have to provide something
which is considered useful so that the exercise is worthwhile. Farmers only
want to know if it's going to be mostly dry for a few days, so grass will
dry for haymaking, or the soil to dry out, or wet for a few days so that the
watertable comes up. Nothing too specific here. I do not have the type of
accuracy that can say 13.23mm will fall between 6.17am and 6.18mm on the
15th of November 2005 in Elizabeth St. I can tell about the POTENTIAL for
rain then, based on high/low pressure zone formation, wind direction and
wind force. If I had funding or sponsorship help then the situation would be
totally different. But I don't get a cracker. On top of that I have to earn
a living, so I can't do this fulltime. This is a hobby. I can't just put a
team onto it like any government meteorologist can. So I ask you all to put
things into perpsective here. $70 million + per annum, which is what the
metservice in NZ gets, would go a long way for me to get much more deadly
accurate. So given the actual time I can afford to spend on it I am told I
do remarkably well. That's good enough for me.
Whilst I do enjoy chewing the fat with others who like yakking about weather
on this forum, I don't care if I convince anybody or not, and I certainly
have no moral obligation to justify what I am doing and provide minutae of
data and method. I distill my data down to what I consider will happen and
then try to cover myself with a bit of leeway. You'll find doctors do that,
so do economists and politicians. It's considered the smarter thing to do.
Anyone who works with meteorologists will find that the metservices ALL do
the same too. Bob McDavitt, "Weather Ambassador" of NZ Metservice once told
me that he always deliberately builds uncertainty into whatever he says. His
actual words: "I choose the middle ground of weather. Just enough pattern so
we can have ideas about it, but also enough chaos so that no one depends on
us to be 100%."
So it's over to you.  I have given you the type of forecast I arrive at. If
you can't do anything with it then more is not going to help you either. As
I have suggested before, I think your comparison system is at fault because
you are only looking for it to show up as negative. The rain(or not) may be
entirely local and therefore give a false reading for the general district.
It is much too easy for you to call me wrong whatever I say, due to your
personal bias. To overcome that I would need data from a collecting station
every few metres along the ground in any direction. Weather is not yet an
exact science, so I say stop pretending it can be treated as one. And I'm
saying it COULD be much more so, if the moon became involved. This state of
affairs may frustrate the more fastidious, but I am open to cheques and
donations...
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 30, 2002 2:25 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Keith and Ken :)


> Hmm James,
>
> Perhaps then you would like to define some of the BoM's favourites then,
> such as:
>
> "mainly fine"
> "a shower or two about"
> "scattered showers"
> "unsettled at first then fine"
> "unsettled"
> "a few light showers about the coast"
> etc..
>
> What is good for the goose is surely good for the gander?  Why should you
> expect Ken to offer up more definitive descriptions when no other
forecaster
> in world does.  Fair go mate.
>
> John.
>
> >snip
>
> Ken: could you please clarify exactly what you mean by the following
> descriptions ( I'll need a fairly accurate description to be able to
> analyse the 6months worth of data you have supplied properly )
>
> "Slightly less rainfall"
> "Queensland will have a changed month"
> "rain looks possible"
> "may see some falls"
> "even less rain than last month"
> "could be wet"
> "far less rain"
> "chances of rain"
> "driest periods"
> "possible shower"
> "good rain"
> "changeable skies"
> "mostly dry"
> "more of Tasmania's rain"
> "a fraction of the amount received in September"
> "some [rain - SIC] looks possible for Alice"
> "brief unsettlement"
> "Ballarats rain comes MAINLY around  . . ."
> "Melbournes weather will be changeable"
> "may not see any [rain-SIC] at all"
> "Some rain look possible . . ."
> "no real rain"
> "a rather dryish month"
> "could be wettish"
> "significant falls"
>
> Thanks
> James
>
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From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 18:38:18 +1300
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Les
You will find that planets with moons like Mars and Jupiter have variable
weather, whilst those without, like Venus, have more regular, unchanging
weather.
Ken

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie Muir" <s355334 at student.uq.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 30, 2002 5:35 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: thermosphere


> Another thing that i was just discussing with someone else, if the
> thickness of the atmosphere plays the main role in the temperature at the
> poles, what about other planets who have very thin atmpspheres, but the
> temperatures at the poles are still significantly colder.
> Just an intersting point, also, what about planets without significantly
> large moons like mars? can the same be done??
>
> Les
>
>
> On Wed, 30 Oct 2002, Anthony Cornelius wrote:
>
> > Ken,
> >
> > All you have done is redefined your boundaries of space and changed the
> > accepted definitions in the scientific community.  But then again, if
> > something doesn't fit your opinion, you make it fit your opinion so
> > you're always correct, of course that's "Ken's law."
> >
> > But, if for a moment we decided to throw out the 50 years+ research and
> > PROOF of where the atmosphere exists, and call the "thermosphere"
> > "space" - then if "space" came closer towards us, surely it would
> > actually get warmer given it's so hot in the thermosphere?
> >
> > Keeping in mind there is also a warm layer between the troposphere and
> > the stratosphere called the tropopause which again is very warm.
> >
> > The troposophere (not the atmosphere) is more shallow at the poles than
> > it is at the equator.  However it is MORE than one mile high - it's in
> > the vicinity of 5-6 miles depending on the region.  But it is so cold at
> > the poles, that often there is an inversion where it gets 5-20C warmer
> > about several kilometres higher than the surface!  Once again, if this
> > air was brought closer to the ground it would warm the ground!  Not to
> > mention that as air descends to the Earth, particularly in the
> > tropopause it actually warms by 9.8C/km.  So your theory of bringing
> > colder air from space is again flawed because:
> >
> > a) It's actually warmer when you ascend higher at the poles!
> > b) As air descends and comes closer to Earth, it will be compressed and
> > therefore increases in temperature by 9.8C/km.
> >
> > AC
> >
> > Ken Ring wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi Ken,
> > > >
> > > > My dearest and most humble apologies.  All of those years at
university
> > > > and thousands of dollars of HECS fees must have gone to waste.  I'll
be
> > > > sure to go to uni and inform my lecturers of their mistakes, and I
shall
> > > > also contact some of the well known academic publishers such as
Oxford
> > > > University Press and Camrbdige University Press etc who have printed
> > > > textbooks and inform them that the definition of the atmosphere has
> > > > changed in accordance with yout statement.
> > > If you say so, but don't get too drastic, Anthony, they were only
doing
> > > their best..
> > >
> > > > In space there is no air...
> > > Correct
> > >
> > > > in the thermosphere there is air.
> > > Incorrect. You couldn't breathe there without oxygen.
> > >
> > > > Furthermore, there's not much air in the mesosphere or
> > > > stratosphere, should I also inform my lecturers and scholars that
> > > > they're not a part of the atmosphere too?
> > > Suit yourself.
> > >
> > > > Where would you like the
> > > > atmosphere to end, Ken?  6km up in the atmosphere and you're already
> > > > above half of the available air.  15-16km and you're above 90% of
the
> > > > air, shall we call the upper part of the troposphere the end of the
> > > > atmosphere?
> > > Yes, for purposes of this discussion. Where is the end of your finger
if
> > > viewed under an electron microscope? Impossible to determine. At that
level
> > > of scrutiny the "fingerness" just gets less and less in density.
That's the
> > > scale of measurement we're doing here.
> > >
> > > > What I have a problem with is supporting
> > > > their method with incorrect information!!!
> > > Me too, same..
> > >
> > > > There are people on this
> > > > list who might actually think that things you have said (for
instance,
> > > > you once explained that the poles are colder because the coldness of
> > > > space is closer there than at the equator) are actually true!  This
is
> > > > extremely wrong!
> > > Do you agree that the useful atmosphere is only a mile high above the
poles
> > > and about 15 miles high at the equator, or not? If so then you must
surely
> > > accept that the cold of space comes down to near ground level. If not,
then
> > > how high do you think the atmosphere IS above the poles? Would you
like me
> > > to give you refs. to the studies done that I have read about and
downloaded
> > > from the net accordingly? I didn't make this stuff up - it's well
documented
> > > by NASA and others.
> > >
> > > .> It's cold there because the sun shines on it at an
> > > > angle so the rays aren't as strong as they're spread over a wider
> > > > angle.
> > > I agree, sure that adds to it, but it's not the whole story.
> > >
> > > > Furthermore, when people have told you they're wrong you don't
> > > > believe them.  I tried the nice tactic a while ago, it didn't work.
> > > I see, according to the Anthony Law, just because someone tells me I'm
wrong
> > > I have to believe them.  Doesn't seem like a scientific discussion at
that
> > > point. Were you a bully in the school playground too?
> > >
> > > > You
> > > > only seem to respond to emails with anger in them.
> > > No, I enjoy others too, but the angry ones tell me the writers are
probably
> > > afraid of changing their mindsets, which is not my problem..
> > >
> > > > Don't twist things around to make them suit your opinion...find some
> > > > other way of describing it, just don't describe something you've
already
> > > > been informed as being wrong!
> > > I'll try to remember that. Thanks for the advice. In return, may I
suggest
> > > you try to apply some commonsense to what you say, instead of just
repeating
> > > off what you have read in obsolete textbooks.
> > > And thanks for taking trouble with your replies. I mean that
sincerely. We
> > > may disagree but I welcome the chance to present an alternative
viewpoint. I
> > > have been a scientist for 30 years. I am sad to say that in my opinion
much
> > > of current science has been hijacked by politics and profit and the
much of
> > > the real research now being done that anyone can trust is by those who
get
> > > labelled mavericks.
> > >
> > > > > Well, some corrections are necessary here.
> > > > > The thermosphere is not strictly the atmosphere, it is beyond it.
The
> > > > > atmosphere, by definition, is the name for our region of air. But
there
> > > aint
> > > > > much air in the old thermosphere. The thermosphere is the highest
and
> > > the
> > > > > largest of the four layers because it's just about space. But it's
not
> > > as if
> > > > > there are dividing lines. It's not like those coloured
sand-in-bottle
> > > > > things. The few molecules that are present in the thermosphere
receive
> > > > > extraordinary amounts of energy from the Sun, causing the layer to
warm
> > > to
> > > > > such high temperatures. Air temperature, however, is a measure of
the
> > > > > kinetic energy of air molecules, not of the total energy stored by
the
> > > air.
> > > > > Therefore, since the air is so thin within the thermosphere, such
> > > > > temperature values are not comparable to those of the troposphere
or
> > > > > stratosphere. (ref
> > > > >
http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Atmosphere/Older/Thermosphere.html)
> > > > > "Although the measured temperature is very hot, the thermosphere
would
> > > > > actually feel very COLD to us because the total energy of only a
few air
> > > > > molecules residing there would not be enough to transfer any
appreciable
> > > > > heat to our skin"(quote from the above website).
> > > > > So as far as I'm concerned my model of the cold of space stands
intact.
> > > > > Sorry that you're getting angry, Anthony. Clearly up till now you
have
> > > not
> > > > > had the correct information.
> > > > > Ken
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > > > > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, October 29, 2002 2:48 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: our "drought"
> > > > >
> > > > > > Ken,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I posted some stuff to you a while back and you conveniently
ignored
> > > > > > it.  Now, it is not the moon controlling the weather that I have
a
> > > > > > problem with, I belive it does have an effect, but not to the
extent
> > > > > > that you portray.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > However things like...
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Ken Ring wrote:
> > > > > >  With atmospheric
> > > > > > > pressure out of your mind try to visualise that when the moon
is out
> > > of
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > sky the height of the atmosphere changes, i.e. it lowers and
lets
> > > the
> > > > > cold
> > > > > > > of space come closer to ground level.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Several people have pointed out to you that your reasoning here
is
> > > > > > TOTALLY WRONG!  Yet you CONTINUE TO IGNORE THEM!!!  This
frustrates
> > > > > > people (including myself!)  Are you forgetting the rest of the
> > > > > > atmosphere???  How high do you think the atmosphere is?  15km?
Have a
> > > > > > look at this diagram:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/academy/space/atmos.gif
> > > > > >
> > > > > > There are not one, BUT TWO warm layers above the surface!  First
is
> > > the
> > > > > > tropopause near the stratosphere, the second is the
thermosphere.  The
> > > > > > thermosphere is so hot it's over a thousand degrees!!!  If your
theory
> > > > > > of the "coldness of space" is correct, then if anything we
should be
> > > > > > getting warmer because the thermosphere would be coming closer
to us.
> > > > > > Space doesn't start for over a thousand kilometres...then it
gets
> > > cold!
> > > > > > But we have several protective layers that separates us from
them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If you're going to issue forecasts, fine.  But for goodness sake
don't
> > > > > > support them with dribble like that (and continue to support
them even
> > > > > > when people have TOLD you it is totally WRONG).  In fact, I
suspect
> > > that
> > > > > > is what a lot of people have been frustrated with.  Not the
issuing of
> > > > > > your unique forecasts, but the INCORRECT INFORMATION you support
your
> > > > > > method with!  I for one would much rather you say "I believe
there is
> > > a
> > > > > > relationship there, and I believe this will happen but I can't
explain
> > > > > > why" then to teach bad meteorology.  Sure everyone gets the
wrong idea
> > > > > > every so often...but to continue to teach that idea when you've
been
> > > > > > told your wrong to me shows that the most closed-minded person
here is
> > > > > > you Ken.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > AC
> > > > > >
> > >
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> >
>
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X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.6]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 17:07:53 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 06:07:54.0056 (UTC) FILETIME=[AF4EA480:01C27FDA]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
John and Kevin;

There are many documented tornadic storms that are labelled as 
"mini-supercells" which is not so surprising I suppose. A supercell, well 
one definition anyway, is a storm characterised by the presence of a 
mesocyclone that meets certain threshold values with respect to 
depth/diameter, duration, shear and maybe others - I'm not sure. Obviously 
these cut-off values are subjective.

Any storm that can get up to the widely accepted threshold levels is likely 
to be quite nasty and the emphasis is on severe weather forecasting. Of 
course, there are many storms that do contain a mesocyclone, depending 
exactly on how you define that as well, that do not qualify as a supercell 
by definition. Even though these are obviously the same sort of thing on a 
smaller scale to varying degrees, I suppose one is forced to come up with 
terms such as 'mini-supercell' so as not to detract from the definition 
itself.

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/PAPERS/MINIMESO/minimeso.htm

Anyway, after reading your own observations and the newspaper article report 
John, the NZ storms dont sound terribly mini-to me. Good stuff! :)






>From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ Tornados
>Date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 20:14:40 +1100
>
>
>
>Hi John,
>
>Congrats!!! You've also touched on one of my pet theories...that some 
>storms which produce tornadoes (not necesarily "gustnadoes" (sic) either) 
>may not obey the classical or traditional Great Plains model of supercell 
>development.
>
>Good catch anyway, man!
>
>Cheers,
>Kevin from Wycheproof.
>
>


_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: I'm out
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 19:11:46 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.100" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have 
delved so low as to (sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has always 
been great reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. Sorry for 
my language and I have now Un-subbed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

X-Sender: goriley at mail.tsn.cc
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Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 19:36:12 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Glen O'Riley" <goriley at tsn.cc>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
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<x-html>
<html>
Well said there old chap. I have been gradually getting the shits with
the list. There seems to be very few topics/posts of interest.<br><br>
At 07:11 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:<br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite><font face="arial" size=2>See ya
later guys. I can't believe that we have delved so low as to (sorry)
shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has always been great reading
but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. Sorry for my language
and I have now Un-subbed.</font><br>
&nbsp;<br>
<font face="arial" size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE
Victoria)</font></blockquote></html>


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</x-html>
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: AWN hourly charts updating again
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 08:40:35 -0000
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The Digital Atmosphere hourly charts of Australia
(http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml) are updating
automatically again -- and hopefully will continue to do so. I've spent a
tedious afternoon converting the processing computer and all scripts over to
a UTC base, as DA's script scheduler spat the dummy at working with clock
times that are ahead of UTC (like Australia's :))

As a result of the change, the script scheduler will hopefully work through
the full 24 hours, then repeat at 00 UTC -- time will tell.

I  *think* that all the other real-time stuff on the site is updating with
the proper local times, but reply to this thread if you notice anything
weird happening.

Laurier

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From: "Michael Thompson" <ozthunder at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 20:38:39 +1100
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Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real weather did
not take the digital.

Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of localised dust
being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in very sharp
edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest. Looked quite
spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.

Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and drought
affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison ). This
was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a sudden
greening just south of Goulburn.

Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Brooker, Sean SD" <Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com>
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: I'm out
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 20:39:47 +1100
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<DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I have 
been a silent member of this list for a couple of months. Trying to glean as 
much info from the well written info that appears here 
everyday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
agree with Bussy - some of you need to grow up or the list will 
die.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bussy 
  [mailto:bussie at netc.net.au]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October 2002 4:12 
  PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: I'm 
  out<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have 
  delved so low as to (sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has 
  always been great reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. 
  Sorry for my language and I have now Un-subbed.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Arial">EOM </FONT></P>
<BR>

<P><FONT SIZE=2 FACE="Arial">NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein.  If you have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message.</FONT></P>


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From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 21:31:07 +1100
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Hi all,
        I have to agree with Michael Thompson. The couple of emails I read,
lead me to delete all other related emails.
This was not going to stop me from learning from the heaps of other very
informative emails to the list:-))
My 2 cents.
 Peter (Didjman)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 30, 2002 9:01 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out


Calm down, just hit the delete key a few times like I do, there are too many
other important and sensible discussions for me to get radical and
unsubscribe, that's akin to cutting off your toe to prove a point

Micha


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From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye Ken . . .
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 21:34:32 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
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Ok Ken, now you are making me a little angry . . . 

>"I think your comparison system is at fault because you are only
looking for it to show up as negative"
>"It is much too easy for you to call me wrong whatever I say, due to
your personal bias."

There is absolutely NO personal bias in the tornado analysis that I
recently undertook- and if it had shown up positive, then I would have
happily posted the results here! Both it and the cyclone analysis have
shown your theories to be completely unsustainable. Why can you not
admit that? 

If you really think there is personal bias in what I have done, then
what you are implying is that I have fudged the data, an accusation
which, lets just say, I find exceedingly unpalatable . . . However, I
have made all my analysis available and open for criticism. 

To go further, 
"I agree with you that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because
the variables are too great"

How convenient . . . You have written a bunch of books which no doubt
sell, you have created a web-site which no doubt helps sell those books,
and you no doubt sell your predictions to Lifestyle farmer magazine.
Interesting how it is all of a sudden impossible to test whether your
predictions are based on a reasonable theory or are no more then pure,
unadulterated entertainment. I have shown, in plain simple terms that
anyone, from a non science background could easily understand, that your
predictions regarding TC's and tornados are completely false, and what
have you said? NOTHING directly regarding any of those analysis, other
than to accuse me of personal bias.

Well Ken it is time to go shove it, I put a lot of effort into that
analysis and you dismiss it out of hand because you are so deluded by
"theory" that you cannot be man enough to admit when you are wrong. . .

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 21:37:56 +1100
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Sean,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Fear not - the aussie-weather list will never die...it just 
goes through stages....and as people take their 'indepth discussions' away from 
the public forum and begin to conduct them in private, the list becomes active 
once more......it will happen, as we've watched it happen a number of time over 
the past few years.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>back to the weather...I've got a number more images now of 
that amazing duststorm that was over eastern Australia, (with many&nbsp;thanks 
to those who have found them and sent them through), these images form NASA - 
I'll create a gallery of them during the next day or so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Cheers,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Jane</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>&lt;I'm not going anywhere&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR>--------------------------------<BR>Jane ONeill - Melbourne<BR><A 
href="mailto:cadence at australianskynweather.com">cadence at australianskynweather.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Sky &amp; Weather<BR><A 
href="http://www.stormchasers.au.com">http://www.stormchasers.au.com</A></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)<BR><A 
href="http://www.severeweather.asn.au">http://www.severeweather.asn.au</A> 
<BR>--------------------------------</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><BR>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com 
  href="mailto:Sean.D.Brooker at bhpbilliton.com">Brooker, Sean SD</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:'aussie-weather at world.std.com'">'aussie-weather at world.std.com'</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 30, 2002 8:39 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: I'm out</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
  have been a silent member of this list for a couple of months. Trying to glean 
  as much info from the well written info that appears here 
  everyday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
  agree with Bussy - some of you need to grow up or the list will 
  die.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bussy 
    [mailto:bussie at netc.net.au]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October 2002 4:12 
    PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: I'm 
    out<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have 
    delved so low as to (sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has 
    always been great reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each 
    other. Sorry for my language and I have now Un-subbed.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
  Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>EOM </FONT></P><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may 
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  any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly 
  forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have 
  received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete 
  the message.</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: I'm NOT out (was: I'm out)
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 10:47:49 -0000
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<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Good 
grief. Far from dying, the list has been more active in the past week than it 
has in the past year! I seriously thought during the winter that it would 
quietly atrophy given the traffic that has transferred to WeatherZone. 
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>While 
strong language and entrenched ideas have been expressed on both sides, we 
should not shrink away from energetic discussion. Ideas only get honed by 
intelligent debate, and where issues are highly contentious it is difficult for 
the debate not to get heated. Those that prefer everyone to be "nice" can always 
hit the delete key on threads they don't like and wait for the weather to 
improve. Or begin new threads of their own.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Alternative bases for weather forecasting have been around longer than 
meteorology. The moon, frogs, ants, lumbago, tea leaves... And rarely have I 
come across an exponent as willing and lucid as Ken. I disagree with just about 
everything he says, but the argy bargy&nbsp;that has ensued has been hugely 
instructive and frequently entertaining. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2>Laurier</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002></SPAN><SPAN 
class=680125609-30102002></SPAN><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN 
class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial 
color=#0000ff>&nbsp;</FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN 
class=680125609-30102002>&nbsp;</SPAN>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> 
aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Brooker, Sean 
SD<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October, 2002 09:40<BR><B>To:</B> 
'aussie-weather at world.std.com'<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: I'm 
out<BR><BR></DIV></FONT></FONT>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
  have been a silent member of this list for a couple of months. Trying to glean 
  as much info from the well written info that appears here 
  everyday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
  agree with Bussy - some of you need to grow up or the list will 
  die.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
    size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bussy 
    [mailto:bussie at netc.net.au]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October 2002 4:12 
    PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: I'm 
    out<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have 
    delved so low as to (sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has 
    always been great reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each 
    other. Sorry for my language and I have now Un-subbed.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
  Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>EOM </FONT></P><BR>
  <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may 
  contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege 
  intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended 
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  recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error and that 
  any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly 
  forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you have 
  received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and delete 
  the message.</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


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X-Sender: jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com at mail.australiasevereweather.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 21:49:17 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at australiasevereweather.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
Come on guys,

I bet if you were all talking to each other, it would be a different story. 
Sometimes the protection of the internet allows some unusual talk. Also 
please understand that to describe feelings are not always easy. I suppose 
a drought of the weather also attracts a drought in the posts.

Let's just get back on topic I suppose and not start another set of posts 
relating to somebody's departure.

Once the storms and other forms of significant weather begin, this won't 
happen. Let's hope November delivers. Can't wait until the chases begin!!!

Jimmy Deguara

http://www.thunderbolttours.com/

At 07:36 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:
>Well said there old chap. I have been gradually getting the shits with the 
>list. There seems to be very few topics/posts of interest.
>
>At 07:11 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:
>>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have delved so low as to 
>>(sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has always been great 
>>reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. Sorry for my 
>>language and I have now Un-subbed.
>>
>>Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 22:19:58 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Tony Langdon (VK3JED)" <vk3jed-1 at optusnet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-flowed>
At 09:49 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:

>Come on guys,
>
>I bet if you were all talking to each other, it would be a different 
>story. Sometimes the protection of the internet allows some unusual talk. 
>Also please understand that to describe feelings are not always easy. I 
>suppose a drought of the weather also attracts a drought in the posts.
>
>Let's just get back on topic I suppose and not start another set of posts 
>relating to somebody's departure.
>
>Once the storms and other forms of significant weather begin, this won't 
>happen. Let's hope November delivers. Can't wait until the chases begin!!!

Well said.  In the meantime, there are ASWA functions to attend and other 
things to do...  I dunno how we'll go for storms this year, with the dry 
upon it, it might be a lean summer. :-(

73 de Tony, VK3JED
http://vkradio.com

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</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 22:46:59 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm out
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I agree with Laurie and others.
A good debAte requires a bit of "heat"... I too find Ken 's theories
interesting but  doubtful. I agree that he expresses his idesa
effectively - even if frustratingly and illogically at times but I have
enjoyed the discussion.
Bussy - if you read this, I am surprised and disappointed by your
reaction... oyur input to this list has always been on interest and that
is the purposes of such an interchange. To react in such a way seems to
have gone against everything else you have given over the recent
months.... maybe you were caught at a bad time.
As for Sean... I haven't come across any of your postings previously...
your first I saw was earlier tonight and so negative and useless that I
can see why your contributions might have been limited.

Back to the weather... my main concern with Ken is that I believe his
unwillingness to accept testing of ideas reflects what I have been
fighting against for a long time... acceptance of meteorology as a
science and as a challenge. I really believe "leg pullers"like Ken
contribute to the negative community attitude to meteorology. If it was
medicine or law, Ken would be barred.  The meteorological community is
more tolerant (despite Bussy and Seans petulant responses) and  from
that stems enjoyable discussion. We are all wrong sometimes....
admitting statements are wrong, such as Ken's obviously silly assertions
about formation times of cyclones etc, is harder but necessary if we are
to move forward.  
In recent years, the accuracy of forecasting has been almost impossible
to statistically support. Like Ken I provide forecasts to client who
require a level of detail and analysis beyond which is available on the
public weather products from the Bureau of Meteorology. Like Ken, I rely
on client response. (I am assuming Ken has clients who pay). If my
forecasts were inferior to the BoM product which is freely available
then I would have been out of business 25 years ago. They are not...
that is why I am still in business and if Ken has manged to convince
people to pay for his assessments - then good luk to him. But that is
not sufficient. 
Let's continue the discussion... let's "stick it up him"or "agree with
him".... it's all good fun. And good on James... your analyses have been
great to read and the most contructive contribution to thios debate.

Cheers,
Don White
PS Excuse the odd spelling mistake, Ken. I am sure David Jones was tired
too.
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Come on guys,
> 
> I bet if you were all talking to each other, it would be a different story.
> Sometimes the protection of the internet allows some unusual talk. Also
> please understand that to describe feelings are not always easy. I suppose
> a drought of the weather also attracts a drought in the posts.
> 
> Let's just get back on topic I suppose and not start another set of posts
> relating to somebody's departure.
> 
> Once the storms and other forms of significant weather begin, this won't
> happen. Let's hope November delivers. Can't wait until the chases begin!!!
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> http://www.thunderbolttours.com/
> 
> At 07:36 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:
> >Well said there old chap. I have been gradually getting the shits with the
> >list. There seems to be very few topics/posts of interest.
> >
> >At 07:11 PM 30/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:
> >>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have delved so low as to
> >>(sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has always been great
> >>reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. Sorry for my
> >>language and I have now Un-subbed.
> >>
> >>Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm NOT out (was: I'm out)
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 22:26:15 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2600.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>yeah, gets a bit ugly 
sometimes, 'tis the nature of the beast, lol</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>i'm with you laurier, i'll 
just roll with the punches.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>much to some peoples 
horror, i ain't goin' nowhere either.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>james, i know your a bit 
jacked off atm, for what it's worth </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>imo your conclusions are 
correct,&nbsp; your efforts are appreciated</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>and your frustration is 
understandable, please when things cool a bit</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>could you do the stats on the lifespan of TCs over the years, it'd be 
</DIV>
<DIV>interesting to see if there's any variation or even better, cycles.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>jane, you got any thoughts 
on this weekend?</FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2>richard</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Comic Sans MS" color=#0000ff size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=wbc at ozemail.com.au href="mailto:wbc at ozemail.com.au">Laurier 
  Williams</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> 
  </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 30, 2002 9:17 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: I'm NOT out (was: I'm 
  out)</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>Good 
  grief. Far from dying, the list has been more active in the past week than it 
  has in the past year! I seriously thought during the winter that it would 
  quietly atrophy given the traffic that has transferred to WeatherZone. 
  </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>While strong language and entrenched ideas have been expressed on both 
  sides, we should not shrink away from energetic discussion. Ideas only get 
  honed by intelligent debate, and where issues are highly contentious it is 
  difficult for the debate not to get heated. Those that prefer everyone to be 
  "nice" can always hit the delete key on threads they don't like and wait for 
  the weather to improve. Or begin new threads of their own.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Alternative bases for weather forecasting have been around longer than 
  meteorology. The moon, frogs, ants, lumbago, tea leaves... And rarely have I 
  come across an exponent as willing and lucid as Ken. I disagree with just 
  about everything he says, but the argy bargy&nbsp;that has ensued has been 
  hugely instructive and frequently entertaining. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2>Laurier</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
  size=2></FONT></SPAN>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><SPAN class=680125609-30102002></SPAN><SPAN 
  class=680125609-30102002></SPAN><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN 
  class=680125609-30102002><FONT face=Arial 
  color=#0000ff></FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Tahoma><FONT size=2><SPAN 
  class=680125609-30102002>&nbsp;</SPAN>-----Original 
  Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
  [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Brooker, 
  Sean SD<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October, 2002 09:40<BR><B>To:</B> 
  'aussie-weather at world.std.com'<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: aus-wx: I'm 
  out<BR><BR></DIV></FONT></FONT>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
    have been a silent member of this list for a couple of months. Trying to 
    glean as much info from the well written info that appears here 
    everyday.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2>I 
    agree with Bussy - some of you need to grow up or the list will 
    die.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <DIV><SPAN class=562523709-30102002><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff 
    size=2>Sean</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
    <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
      <DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma 
      size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> Bussy 
      [mailto:bussie at netc.net.au]<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, 30 October 2002 
      4:12 PM<BR><B>To:</B> aussie-weather<BR><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: I'm 
      out<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>See ya later guys. I can't believe that we 
      have delved so low as to (sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list 
      has always been great reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each 
      other. Sorry for my language and I have now Un-subbed.</FONT></DIV>
      <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
      <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen NE 
    Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
    <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>EOM </FONT></P><BR>
    <P><FONT face=Arial size=2>NOTICE - This message and any attached files may 
    contain information that is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege 
    intended only for use by the intended recipient. If you are not the intended 
    recipient or the person responsible for delivering the message to the 
    intended recipient, be advised that you have received this message in error 
    and that any dissemination, copying or use of this message or attachment is 
    strictly forbidden, as is the disclosure of the information therein. If you 
    have received this message in error please notify the sender immediately and 
    delete the message.</FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>


</x-html>

From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: East Australian Dust Storm
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 23:17:51 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


As promised, a few more images are now in the collection with much
thanks to the BoM & NASA & the collector of the images..... still more
to come.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/dust1002.htm

Enjoy!!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at australianskynweather.com

Australian Sky & Weather
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "Richard Modistach" <hambone at dodo.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Australian Dust Storm
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 23:14:14 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


hi jane,

exellent pics and theres more to come, will you have pics. of the duststorm
from a ground point of view?, there must be some rippers out there. also
would it be possible to put up some analysis charts.

regards
richard


----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 30, 2002 10:47 PM
Subject: aus-wx: East Australian Dust Storm


> As promised, a few more images are now in the collection with much
> thanks to the BoM & NASA & the collector of the images..... still more
> to come.
>
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com/dust1002.htm
>
> Enjoy!!
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at australianskynweather.com
>
> Australian Sky & Weather
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "James Holbeach" <james at trapdoor.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: RE: Goodbye Ken . . .
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 02:34:24 +1100
Organization: Trapdoor Ski Club
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2616
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Unfortunately the rest of my post did not come up . . .  so here it is
in full (fingers crossed)

Ok Ken, now you are making me a little angry . . . 

>"I think your comparison system is at fault because you are only 
>looking for it to show up as negative" "It is much too easy for you to 
>call me wrong whatever I say, due to your personal bias."

There is absolutely NO personal bias in the tornado analysis that I
recently undertook- and if it had shown up positive, then I would have
happily posted the results here! Both it and the cyclone analysis have
shown your theories to be completely unsustainable. Why can you not
admit that? 

If you really think there is personal bias in what I have done, then
what you are implying is that I have fudged the data, an accusation
which, lets just say, I find exceedingly unpalatable . . . However, I
have made all my analysis available and open for criticism. 

To go further, 
"I agree with you that no one can prove I'm correct or incorrect because
the variables are too great"

How convenient . . . You have written a bunch of books which no doubt
sell, you have created a web-site which no doubt helps sell those books,
and you no doubt sell your predictions to Lifestyle farmer magazine.
Interesting how it is all of a sudden impossible to test whether your
predictions are based on a reasonable theory or are no more then pure,
unadulterated entertainment. I have shown, in plain simple terms that
anyone, from a non science background could easily understand, that your
predictions regarding TC's and tornados are completely false, and what
have you said? NOTHING directly regarding any of those analysis, other
than to accuse me of personal bias.

Well Ken it is time to go shove it, I put a lot of effort into that
analysis and you dismiss it out of hand because you are so deluded by
"theory" that you cannot be man enough to admit when you are wrong. . .

From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: Goodbye Ken . . .
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 07:56:46 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



> you cannot be man enough to admit when you are wrong. . .
Fair enough, if you say wrong, then I admit it 

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.49]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: I'm NOT out (was: I'm out)
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 08:58:08 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Oct 2002 21:58:09.0020 (UTC) FILETIME=[6EDFBBC0:01C2805F]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>I agree.&nbsp; We're not a bunch of diplomats who&nbsp;must use language so emasculated and designed not to offend, that it's devoid of content.&nbsp; At the same time, however, people should be prepared to justify their theories and others must feel able to challenge these ideas.&nbsp; We must 'play the ball',&nbsp;and not 'play the man', to use an AFL analogy.&nbsp; Sometimes its a fine line to tread.</P>
<P><BR><BR>&nbsp;</P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Laurier Williams" <WBC at OZEMAIL.COM.AU>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: <AUSSIE-WEATHER at WORLD.STD.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: I'm NOT out (was: I'm out) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 10:47:49 -0000 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Good grief. Far from dying, the list has been more active in the past week 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;than it has in the past year! I seriously thought during the winter that it 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;would quietly atrophy given the traffic that has transferred to WeatherZone. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;While strong language and entrenched ideas have been expressed on both 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;sides, we should not shrink away from energetic discussion. Ideas only get 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;honed by intelligent debate, and where issues are highly contentious it is 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;difficult for the debate not to get heated. Those that prefer everyone to be 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;"nice" can always hit the delete key on threads they don't like and wait for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the weather to improve. Or begin new threads of their own. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Alternative bases for weather forecasting have been around longer than 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;meteorology. The moon, frogs, ants, lumbago, tea leaves... And rarely have I 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;come across an exponent as willing and lucid as Ken. I disagree with just 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;about everything he says, but the argy bargy that has ensued has been hugely 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;instructive and frequently entertaining. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Laurier 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----Original Message----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Brooker, Sean SD 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sent: Wednesday, 30 October, 2002 09:40 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: 'aussie-weather at world.std.com' 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: RE: aus-wx: I'm out 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; I have been a silent member of this list for a couple of months. Trying to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;glean as much info from the well written info that appears here everyday. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; I agree with Bussy - some of you need to grow up or the list will die. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Sean 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----Original Message----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; From: Bussy [mailto:bussie at netc.net.au] 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Sent: Wednesday, 30 October 2002 4:12 PM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; To: aussie-weather 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Subject: aus-wx: I'm out 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; See ya later guys. I can't believe that we have delved so low as to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;(sorry) shitcan everyone else's ideas. This list has always been great 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;reading but not 200 messages a day shit canning each other. Sorry for my 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;language and I have now Un-subbed. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Bussy (Rutherglen NE Victoria) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; EOM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; NOTICE - This message and any attached files may contain information that 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;is confidential and/or subject of legal privilege intended only for use by 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient or the person 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;responsible for delivering the message to the intended recipient, be advised 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;that you have received this message in error and that any dissemination, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;copying or use of this message or attachment is strictly forbidden, as is 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the disclosure of the information therein. If you have received this message 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the message. 
<DIV></DIV></div><br clear=all><hr>Get a speedy connection with MSN Broadband.  Join now! <a href="http://g.msn.com/8HMREN/2021">Click Here</a> </html>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


</x-html>
From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: AWN hourly charts updating again
Date: Wed, 30 Oct 2002 22:19:30 -0000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
Importance: Normal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Well, everything is working fine at this end but now my host site has gone
down. Whenever it comes back up, the charts (and other data) should update.

Laurier


> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Laurier
> Williams
> Sent: Wednesday, 30 October, 2002 08:41
> To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com
> Subject: aus-wx: AWN hourly charts updating again
>
>
> The Digital Atmosphere hourly charts of Australia
> (http://www.australianweathernews.com/charts.shtml) are updating
> automatically again -- and hopefully will continue to do so. I've spent a
> tedious afternoon converting the processing computer and all
> scripts over to
> a UTC base, as DA's script scheduler spat the dummy at working with clock
> times that are ahead of UTC (like Australia's :))
>
> As a result of the change, the script scheduler will hopefully
> work through
> the full 24 hours, then repeat at 00 UTC -- time will tell.
>
> I  *think* that all the other real-time stuff on the site is updating with
> the proper local times, but reply to this thread if you notice anything
> weird happening.
>
> Laurier
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

X-Sender: hdewit at mail.sa.bom.gov.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 11:03:25 +1030
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC duration distribution
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


<x-html>
<html>
Hi James,<br><br>
I'm sorry about all the angst you had with Ken following your statistical
analysis of cyclones and tornadoes. However I couldn't see how it would
end any other way. Ken's approach is pre-scientific (note his references
to Astrology, Kepler, his 'theory' of 'cold', etc) and any scientific
critique would be viewed with suspicion by him. The two world views are
just so different. <br><br>
However, the real point of my email, a few gems of interesting
information did come out of the discussion.<br><br>
One that appealed to me was your analysis of Cyclone duration times,
which you showed had the wonderful distribution below.<br><br>
<font face="arial" size=2><x-tab>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</x-tab><a href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif</a><br><br>
</font>This appears to be the famous Weibull distribution. It is widely
used in industry to predict/analyse the failure of parts. It's
interesting to think of a cyclone as a failing part, but I suppose that's
clearly true.<br><br>
There are thousands of pages on the web about Weibull, but these a good
start:<br><br>
<x-tab>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</x-tab><a href="http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/issue14/relbasics14.htm" eudora="autourl">http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/issue14/relbasics14.htm</a><br>
<x-tab>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</x-tab><a href="http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3668.htm" eudora="autourl">http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3668.htm</a><br><br>
The Weibull distribution has two main parameters, a scale parameter, and
a shape parameter. The shape parameter is the more interesting. 
<br><br>
Your cyclone distribution looks similar to some wind distributions I was
dealing with a few months ago which have a shape parameter near 2
(special case called the Rayleigh distribution). In the web pages on
Weibull, a shape parameter&gt;1 is associated with a failure rate
increasing with time.<br><br>
I thought this might be interesting to you and some compensation for all
the work you put into your battle with Ken.<br><br>
Cheers<br>
Hank<br><br>
At 12:07 AM 28/10/2002 +1100, you wrote:<br><br>
<blockquote type=cite class=cite cite><font face="arial" size=2>Well I
said I d do it tomorrow but this daylight saving this has me well and
truly awake LOL<br>
</font><br>
<font face="arial" size=2>While I was doing this I also came up with an
interesting histogram for the duration of cyclones!<br>
</font><br>
<font face="arial" size=2><a href="http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif">http://www.trapdoor.com.au/weather/cyclone-length-histogram.gif</a></font></blockquote></html>


</x-html>

Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:10:37 +1100
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: East Australian Dust Storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Richard and everyone

I put together a little something about the dust storm on sydney storm chasers a
few days ago, will add too it next week with some mslp etc when i get the time.

http://www.sydneystormchasers.com , link is on the right, under the NZ tornado
event :), its not much, but hopefully over time will add to it...although its
only dust.. you can only write so much :P

Matt Smith

Richard Modistach wrote:

> hi jane,
>
> exellent pics and theres more to come, will you have pics. of the duststorm
> from a ground point of view?, there must be some rippers out there. also
> would it be possible to put up some analysis charts.
>
> regards
> richard
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at australianskynweather.com>
> To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 30, 2002 10:47 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: East Australian Dust Storm
>
> > As promised, a few more images are now in the collection with much
> > thanks to the BoM & NASA & the collector of the images..... still more
> > to come.
> >
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/dust1002.htm
> >
> > Enjoy!!
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at australianskynweather.com
> >
> > Australian Sky & Weather
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA)
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
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Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


wow!
Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you would see
much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.

Matt Smith

Michael Thompson wrote:

> Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real weather did
> not take the digital.
>
> Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of localised dust
> being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in very sharp
> edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest. Looked quite
> spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
>
> Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and drought
> affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison ). This
> was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a sudden
> greening just south of Goulburn.
>
> Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
>
> ---
> Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> Version: 6.0.406 / Virus Database: 229 - Release Date: 21/10/02
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Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 15:39:48 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
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"Lake George" is often a misnomer.  Some years, you drive past and the 
water is almost lapping the main road.  Other years it's as dry as a 
desert.  In between years you might see miles of paddocks with a puddle 
of water in the far distance.
I haven't been past in the last 15 years, but I assume since the dust is 
being lifted that it is dry or almost dry at present.

Phil
<><

International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm



-----Original Message-----
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George

> wow!
> Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you
> would see
> much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.
> 
> Matt Smith
> 
> Michael Thompson wrote:
> 
> > Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real
> weather did
> > not take the digital.
> >
> > Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of
> localised dust
> > being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in very
> sharp
> > edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest.
> Looked quite
> > spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
> >
> > Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and
> drought
> > affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison
> ). This
> > was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a
> sudden
> > greening just south of Goulburn.
> >
> > Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
> >
> > ---
> > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > Version: 6.0.406 / Virus Database: 229 - Release Date: 21/10/02
> >
> > 
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> >  message.
> > 
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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> +
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> to:majordomo at world.std.com
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X-Originating-IP: [144.132.18.241]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 19:07:59 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Oct 2002 08:07:59.0539 (UTC) FILETIME=[A085D830:01C280B4]
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<x-flowed>
When I lived in Canberra years ago, there used to be a story going around 
how Lake George was connected by an underground cave system to Lach Ness, 
and that there had been monsters spotted cruising the lake!!!


Perhaps they drink all the water some years!


Liam





>From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
>Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 15:39:48 +0800
>
>"Lake George" is often a misnomer.  Some years, you drive past and the
>water is almost lapping the main road.  Other years it's as dry as a
>desert.  In between years you might see miles of paddocks with a puddle
>of water in the far distance.
>I haven't been past in the last 15 years, but I assume since the dust is
>being lifted that it is dry or almost dry at present.
>
>Phil
><><
>
>International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
>Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
>Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
>Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
>
> > wow!
> > Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you
> > would see
> > much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.
> >
> > Matt Smith
> >
> > Michael Thompson wrote:
> >
> > > Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real
> > weather did
> > > not take the digital.
> > >
> > > Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of
> > localised dust
> > > being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in very
> > sharp
> > > edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest.
> > Looked quite
> > > spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
> > >
> > > Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and
> > drought
> > > affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison
> > ). This
> > > was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a
> > sudden
> > > greening just south of Goulburn.
> > >
> > > Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > Version: 6.0.406 / Virus Database: 229 - Release Date: 21/10/02
> > >
> > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > >  message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
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_________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 20:36:22 +1100
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


True Liam, but I believe there is evidence that this only happens before
a full moon.
Comments Ken?

Liam Domanski wrote:
> 
> When I lived in Canberra years ago, there used to be a story going around
> how Lake George was connected by an underground cave system to Lach Ness,
> and that there had been monsters spotted cruising the lake!!!
> 
> Perhaps they drink all the water some years!
> 
> Liam
> 
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 15:39:48 +0800
> >
> >"Lake George" is often a misnomer.  Some years, you drive past and the
> >water is almost lapping the main road.  Other years it's as dry as a
> >desert.  In between years you might see miles of paddocks with a puddle
> >of water in the far distance.
> >I haven't been past in the last 15 years, but I assume since the dust is
> >being lifted that it is dry or almost dry at present.
> >
> >Phil
> ><><
> >
> >International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> >Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> >Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >
> > > wow!
> > > Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you
> > > would see
> > > much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.
> > >
> > > Matt Smith
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > > Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real
> > > weather did
> > > > not take the digital.
> > > >
> > > > Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of
> > > localised dust
> > > > being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in very
> > > sharp
> > > > edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest.
> > > Looked quite
> > > > spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
> > > >
> > > > Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and
> > > drought
> > > > affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison
> > > ). This
> > > > was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a
> > > sudden
> > > > greening just south of Goulburn.
> > > >
> > > > Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.406 / Virus Database: 229 - Release Date: 21/10/02
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >  message.
> > > >
> > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
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> > > +
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
> Surf the Web without missing calls! Get MSN Broadband.
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> 
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From: "Michael Thompson" <thunder at ozthunder.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 22:53:40 +1100
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It's funny you should say that as my first sight of the Lake was as a young
lad in the early 1960's. Similar story except my father said it was
connected to the lake at Mt Gambier in Victoria.

Even though I was only 7 or 8 years old I was a keen rock collector and
could not see how even then.

I suppose people cannot pick long term trends as easily as short ones. Like
Lake George will slowly dry over a number of just slightly dry years,
perhaps not even drought years, so they look at the green pastures and
wonder where the water went.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2002 7:07 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George


> When I lived in Canberra years ago, there used to be a story going around
> how Lake George was connected by an underground cave system to Lach Ness,
> and that there had been monsters spotted cruising the lake!!!
>
>
> Perhaps they drink all the water some years!
>
>
> Liam
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 15:39:48 +0800
> >
> >"Lake George" is often a misnomer.  Some years, you drive past and the
> >water is almost lapping the main road.  Other years it's as dry as a
> >desert.  In between years you might see miles of paddocks with a puddle
> >of water in the far distance.
> >I haven't been past in the last 15 years, but I assume since the dust is
> >being lifted that it is dry or almost dry at present.
> >
> >Phil
> ><><
> >
> >International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> >Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> >Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >
> > > wow!
> > > Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you
> > > would see
> > > much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.
> > >
> > > Matt Smith
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > > Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real
> > > weather did
> > > > not take the digital.
> > > >
> > > > Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of
> > > localised dust
> > > > being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in
very
> > > sharp
> > > > edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest.
> > > Looked quite
> > > > spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
> > > >
> > > > Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and
> > > drought
> > > > affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison
> > > ). This
> > > > was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a
> > > sudden
> > > > greening just south of Goulburn.
> > > >
> > > > Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
> > > > Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
> > > > Version: 6.0.406 / Virus Database: 229 - Release Date: 21/10/02
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > > >  message.
> > > >
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> > >
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> > > +
> > >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
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>
>
> _________________________________________________________________
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>


---
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at lexicon.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 07:10:06 -0500
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It neither goes to Mt Gambier of some secret cave. We got Jeff kennet
working for us still, and he stole it like he also stole the Grand Prix off
South Australia...LOL (Although with Vic's water supplies as they
are...Jeff...where did you exactly put the water???)

PaulY

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
Thompson
Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2002 6:54 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George


It's funny you should say that as my first sight of the Lake was as a young
lad in the early 1960's. Similar story except my father said it was
connected to the lake at Mt Gambier in Victoria.

Even though I was only 7 or 8 years old I was a keen rock collector and
could not see how even then.

I suppose people cannot pick long term trends as easily as short ones. Like
Lake George will slowly dry over a number of just slightly dry years,
perhaps not even drought years, so they look at the green pastures and
wonder where the water went.


----- Original Message -----
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 31, 2002 7:07 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George


> When I lived in Canberra years ago, there used to be a story going around
> how Lake George was connected by an underground cave system to Lach Ness,
> and that there had been monsters spotted cruising the lake!!!
>
>
> Perhaps they drink all the water some years!
>
>
> Liam
>
>
>
>
>
> >From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 15:39:48 +0800
> >
> >"Lake George" is often a misnomer.  Some years, you drive past and the
> >water is almost lapping the main road.  Other years it's as dry as a
> >desert.  In between years you might see miles of paddocks with a puddle
> >of water in the far distance.
> >I haven't been past in the last 15 years, but I assume since the dust is
> >being lifted that it is dry or almost dry at present.
> >
> >Phil
> ><><
> >
> >International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk
> >Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> >Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk
> >Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm
> >
> >
> >
> >-----Original Message-----
> >From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Date: Thu, 31 Oct 2002 16:18:49 +1100
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lifted Dust over Lake George
> >
> > > wow!
> > > Sounds interesting Michael... I guess raised dust is not something you
> > > would see
> > > much of on a lake... would have been a sight to see.
> > >
> > > Matt Smith
> > >
> > > Michael Thompson wrote:
> > >
> > > > Was in Canberra yesterday and today and not expecting any real
> > > weather did
> > > > not take the digital.
> > > >
> > > > Bad mistake as around 3.30pm this afternoon was the sight of
> > > localised dust
> > > > being lifted over the SE corner of Lake George, it was lifted in
very
> > > sharp
> > > > edged sheets and extended perhaps 100m into the air at highest.
> > > Looked quite
> > > > spectacular, largest would have been about 2kms long.
> > > >
> > > > Also noted that the hills east of Lake George were very brown and
> > > drought
> > > > affected, whilst the range just west is quite green ( in comparison
> > > ). This
> > > > was something I noticed two weeks ago on a similar Canberra trip,  a
> > > sudden
> > > > greening just south of Goulburn.
> > > >
> > > > Some virga around 3.15 near Canberra too.
> > > >
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