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X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 02:36:03 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        astro-weather at topica.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Ken Ring vs the RNGs - update & Haralds final result
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Hi All.

We have reached an interesting point in the proceedings where the result
using Haralds first proposed raw method with no rain threshold is now
complete while my method still requires another 2 days due to the rainfall
distribution method and the +-1 day leeway.


Haralds method unashamedly declares Drowt (aka Mindless) with a score of
66% as the real winner! The next best is RNG#1 with 62%, then RNG#3 on 59%,
with Ken coming in 4th at 52%, RNG#2 on 48% and the new comer Flood on 34%.

I look forward to Harald's post of any conclusions he may wish to draw from
his method.


Using my method the progress so far gives Ken a lead in the final strait at
85% with RNG#1 close behind on 80% and RNG's 2 & 3 on 75%, Drowt is way
back at 36% and Flood is trailing at 34%.

Stay tuned for an exciting finish!


Here are the tables for those who wish to see the details:

Haralds Raw Method  - Final

       | Raw  Data      |
       | Rain Fine Tot  |
Obs    | 10   19   29   |
Odds   | 34%  66%  50%  |
       |                |
Ken    | 3    12   15   |
       | 30%  63%  52%  |
RNG#1  | 4    14   18   |
       | 40%  74%  62%  |
RNG#2  | 2    12   14   |
       | 20%  63%  48%  |
RNG#3  | 1    16   17   |
       | 10%  84%  59%  |
Drowt  | 0    19   19   |
       | 0%   100% 66%  |
Flood  | 10   0    10   |
       | 100% 0%   34%  |


Carl's Leeway and Windows Method

       | Number of Days   | Timing          | Windows         | Av   |
       | Rain Fine Tot  | Rain Fine Tot  | Rain Fine Tot  | All  |
Obs    | 9    19   28   | 9    19   28   | 5    5    10   |      |
Odds   | 32%  68%  50%  | 35%  73%  54%  | 36%  36%  36%  | 47%  |
       |                |                |                |      |
Fcst   | Number of Days   | Timing          | Windows         | Resu |
       | Rain Fine Av   | Rain Fine Av   | Rain Fine Av   | All  |
Ken    | 10   19        | 5.4  14.7      | 4    5    9    |      |
       | 90%  100% 93%  | 60%  77%  72%  | 80%  100% 90%  | 85%  |
RNG#1  | 9    20        | 7  17.3      | 8    9    17   |      |
       | 100% 95%  94%  | 77%  91%  87%  | 63%  56%  59%  | 80%  |
RNG#2  | 9    20        | 3.9  15.6      | 8    8    16   |      |
       | 100% 95%  94%  | 44%  82%  70%  | 63%  63%  63%  | 75%  |
RNG#3  | 4    25        | 2.1  18.1      | 4    5    9    |      |
       | 44%  76%  64%  | 23%  95%  72%  | 80%  100% 90%  | 75%  |
Drowt  | 0    29        | 0    15.7      | 0    1    1    |      |
       | 0%   66%  43%  | 0%   82%  56%  | 0%   20%  10%  | 36%  |
Flood  | 29   0         | 5.2  0         | 1    0    1    |      |
       | 31%  0%   10%  | 58%  0%   19%  | 20%  0%   10%  | 13%  |


Harald's Table (modified)
1  mm Rain Threshold

SydAP  Dy  Obs    Fcst1  Fcst2  Fcst3  Fcst4  Fcst5  Fcst6
9am    Ja  Rain   Ken    RNG#1  RNG#2  RNG#3  Drowt  Flood

0      02  --
0      03  --    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      04  --    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      05  --    -       -       -       R       -       R
0      06  -R    R       -       R       -       -       R
14     07  RR    R       R       -       -       -       R
7.2    08  R-    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      09  --    -       R       R       R       -       R
0      10  --    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      11  --    -       R       -       -       -       R
0      12  --    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      13  --    R       -       R       -       -       R
0      14  --    R       -       -       -       -       R
0      15  -R    -       -       -       -       -       R
19     16  RR    -       R       -       -       -       R
11.4   17  R-    -       -       -       -       -       R
0.2    18  --    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      19  --    -       -       R       -       -       R
0      20  --    R       -       -       -       -       R
0      21  -R    -       R       R       -       -       R
2.2    22  R-    -       -       -       -       -       R
0      23  -R    -       R       -       -       -       R
6.2    24  RR    R       R       R       -       -       R
4      25  R-    R       -       -       -       -       R
0      26  --    R       -       R       -       -       R
0      27  --    R       -       R       -       -       R
0      28  --    R       R       -       R       -       R
0      29  -R    -       -       -       -       -       R
3.2    30  RR    -       R       -       R       -       R
1.2    31  R?    -       -       R       -       -       R
?      01  ??
?      02

Tot 68.6 mm

Regards,
Carl.

~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

Email: carls at qldnet.com.au
Current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives:
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne today...
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 08:55:34 +1100 
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lots and lots and lots of cut text...
>Tomorrow (Friday): Tomorrow should prove to be an interesting day - =
>there will be something to be learned from tomorrow. 

Macca, first a word of encouragement for the posts. The effort you put into
these really puts some of us to shame!
Based on persual of the observations and progs, I suspect it is a wise move
hanging around Melbourne at least to lunch time.
There is always uncertainty, but I wouldn't be surprised if the best action
occurs very close to Melbourne. The instability indices in the models are
tending to maximise through central Victoria, as is mid level moisture
(700hPa RH approach 100% for tonight), while the local aspect and topography
should yield healthy low to mid 30s temperature across the Melbourne metro
area through the afternoon in the broad ENE to NNE surface flow. Melbourne
is also going to be relatively close (this arvo) to the surface trough
currently over western Victoria, which should provide some low level
convergence.

Looking out the window, the scattered Ac and odd bit of castellated Ac
points to (at least) reasonable mid level instability and moisture, while in
the low levels dewpoints have increased by 3-5C since this time yesterday
(we even had a good dew this morning at Ferny Creek with a minimum if 15C
which points to quite a depth of warm humid PBL air).

BTW gazing further into the future, it seems that yet again the northern end
of the thickness trough associated with the front crossing the waters south
of the Bight is expected to "cut-off" from the more southerly section near
Ceduna and then stall. At the same time, the high approaching Victoria first
ridges, then establishes its main centre south of the mainland. Such a
scenario often precedes the development of easterly dips through NSW and
Victoria and eventually cyclogenesis... certainly something to watch for..

Regards,

David
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Clyve Herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne today...
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 10:59:23 +1100
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Hi all.
An interesting discussion, I also read Macca's stuff with interest and I
would like to encourage him to take his interest further.....The synoptic
set-up developing over the Australian region is looking promising, the cloud
area in the Tasman has been edging south-westward for almost a week when
this area of convergence was north of NZ,I also agree with "Doc Jones" there
is something cut-off looking about the set up for the southern part of
Australia and the southeast of the continent is looking better for this
situation, not a bad field of cold air moving into the south-western Aus
Bight area as well. It would be nice to see this cold air region mucking
about with the increasing tropical/sub tropical moisture now feeding into
much of eastern Aus..keep a lookout.. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 8:55 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne today...


> lots and lots and lots of cut text...
> >Tomorrow (Friday): Tomorrow should prove to be an interesting day - =
> >there will be something to be learned from tomorrow.
>
> Macca, first a word of encouragement for the posts. The effort you put
into
> these really puts some of us to shame!
> Based on persual of the observations and progs, I suspect it is a wise
move
> hanging around Melbourne at least to lunch time.
> There is always uncertainty, but I wouldn't be surprised if the best
action
> occurs very close to Melbourne. The instability indices in the models are
> tending to maximise through central Victoria, as is mid level moisture
> (700hPa RH approach 100% for tonight), while the local aspect and
topography
> should yield healthy low to mid 30s temperature across the Melbourne metro
> area through the afternoon in the broad ENE to NNE surface flow. Melbourne
> is also going to be relatively close (this arvo) to the surface trough
> currently over western Victoria, which should provide some low level
> convergence.
>
> Looking out the window, the scattered Ac and odd bit of castellated Ac
> points to (at least) reasonable mid level instability and moisture, while
in
> the low levels dewpoints have increased by 3-5C since this time yesterday
> (we even had a good dew this morning at Ferny Creek with a minimum if 15C
> which points to quite a depth of warm humid PBL air).
>
> BTW gazing further into the future, it seems that yet again the northern
end
> of the thickness trough associated with the front crossing the waters
south
> of the Bight is expected to "cut-off" from the more southerly section near
> Ceduna and then stall. At the same time, the high approaching Victoria
first
> ridges, then establishes its main centre south of the mainland. Such a
> scenario often precedes the development of easterly dips through NSW and
> Victoria and eventually cyclogenesis... certainly something to watch for..
>
> Regards,
>
> David
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 11:49:29 +1100 (EDT)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Well,

Here it is, the long-awaited score of a simple  hit = (- - or R R) method:

   RNG#1:      18/28
   RNG#2:      16/28
   RNG#3:      15/28
   Mindless:   15/28
   Ken:        13/28

I do realise that the verification methodology can be improved,  but if your
rainfall forecast goal _were_ simply to predict rain/no rain days for the
point location YSSY, this simple method is an acceptable start.  

I find it remarkable that the "inverse" of Ken's forecast (replace 
"-" by "R", and "R" by "-") would have scored better (15/28) than Ken's
actual forecast.  That tells me that _any_ verification scheme that 
has Ken's forecast miraculously come out on top is suspicious.

Regarding "window forecasts",  I could shift Ken's rain windows (using eyeball
technology) up or down in my verification table (below),  and it doesn't
make his forecast look any better.  The forecast simply doesn't
relate well to the obs!

Carl wrote:

> complete while my method still requires another 2 days due to the rainfall
> distribution method and the +-1 day leeway.

My method looks at 5...30 min METARS, requiring no time-weighted distributions 
of 24h rainfall totals.  Time-weighted 24h rain distrinution is a temporally smoothing 
approach and is not optimal in Sydney's summertime _convective_ rainfall regime,  
where rain is more likely to fall in short bursts.
 
> Haralds method unashamedly declares Drowt (aka Mindless) with a score of
> 66% as the real winner! 

No, it doesn't. "Mindless" (a.k.a. drought) is the bottom of the pack 
(apart from Ken).  BTW, my methodology is not capable of feeling shame (or
the lack thereof).  The methodology in itself is mindless.

> The next best is RNG#1 with 62%, then RNG#3 on 59%,
> with Ken coming in 4th at 52%, RNG#2 on 48% and the new comer Flood on 34%.

In terms of percentages, rather than hits/fcst days, my results look like this:

   RNG#1:      64%
   RNG#2:      57%
   RNG#3:      54%
   Mindless:   54%
   Ken:        46%
 
The table from which these scores are derived follows:


  Day  Obs  Ken  RNG#1  RNG#2  RNG#3  Mindless
  --------------------------------------------
  03   -    -    -      -      -         -
  04   -    -    -      -      -         -
  05   -    -    -      -      R         -
  06   R    R    -      R      -         -
  07   R    R    R      -      -         -
  08   -    -    -      -      -         -
  09   R    -    R      R      R         -
  10   -    -    -      -      -         -
  11   -    -    R      -      -         -
  12   -    -    -      -      -         -
  13   -    R    -      R      -         -
  14   -    R    -      -      -         -
  15   R    -    -      -      -         -
  16   R    -    R      -      -         -
  17   R    -    -      -      -         -
  18   R?   -    -      -      -         -
  19   -    -    -      R      -         -
  20   -    R    -      -      -         -
  21   R    -    R      R      -         -
  22   R    -    -      -      -         -
  23   -    -    R      -      -         -
  24   R    R    R      R      -         -
  25   R    R    -      -      -         -
  26   -    R    -      R      -         -
  27   -    R    -      R      -         -
  28   -    R    R      -      R         -
  29   R    -    -      -      -         -
  30   R    -    R      -      R         -
  31   R    -    -      R      -         -

I excluded 18 Jan 2002 due to an ambiguity in the METARS reports.
No matter whether the 18th was/was not a "R" day,  the relative outcome
would not change as all "forecasts" were "-".

 
> I look forward to Harald's post of any conclusions he may wish to draw from
> his method.

Harald wishes to point out the following:  Despite the obvious shortcomings of the 
(- -;R R) verification methodology,  a truly skillfull forecast methodology should 
have at least beaten some of the RNGs (if not all).  I see no point to engage in
a more complex verification methodology at this point,  which would have to
take into account temporal AND SPATIAL rainfall distribution patterns _and_
rainfall amounts.  Science is teeming with "research rabbit trails" that 
demand to be pursued in hope of new discoveries.  A researcher must select
a few of the most promising rabbit trails.  Following down every existing
trail is impossible,  and an inadequate selection of trails is irresponsible 
and a waste of time.  

I consider the results of my simple rainfall verification methodology sufficiently 
informative to close off the trail related to Ken's methodology.
The idea in early January was to "give Ken a go" - I have done so. I have received
yet another _indication_ (not proof! -- I know one month + one location is not enough) 
that his method is not sufficiently promising for me to be pursued.
This 'closure' is especially appropriate if you add the more physically based arguments 
regarding the magnitude of the moon's gravitational pull _relative to_ the magnitude of
all the other factors that influence rainfall.

In complex physical systems where hundreds of physical factors all influence each other
in nonlinear feedbacks,  almost _any_ methodology can survive testing as it can
hide in the complexity of the physical system. 


Stay tuned for VIC thunder today,
Harald
 
-- 
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm 
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Andrew" <macca_wx at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vic Storms Today
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 12:05:17 +1100
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<P>Hi all,
<P>Thankyou for you kind words of encouragement David and Clyve.&nbsp; I also 
enjoy reading your emails and take the information into account when doing my 
forecasts.
<P>As pointed out by Dr Jones on the this morning, mositure levels have 
increased significantly across Victoria overnight with dew points currently 
ranging between 13C and 18C with a clear dew point gradient running from east to 
west (with higher DP's in the E). I think the PBL will be a tad drier than this 
and we should see these DP's mix out later this morning/early this arvo and they 
should come down to a more accurate indication of the PBL of about 12-13C. The 
YMML sounding this morning is quite nice with -1.9 LI's on it and only a plotted 
temperature of 30C. With a temp of 33-35C this sounding gets quite nice. The 
sounding is quite representative of much of Victoria up to about 350mb but above 
that is where things get interesting. As menitoned yesterday, an upper ridge is 
pushing into the W of the state so the sounding should warm somewhat throughout 
the day above 350mb - this warming can already be seen slightly on the 23:00 UTC 
sounding at 300mb. Given the sounding I'd think garden variety storms will top 
out at about 28-30,000ft or so but stronger storms should get quite a bit 
higher, hitting about 35-36,000ft. Shear is very marginal on the sounding but 
I'll discuss this a little later. 
<P>The trough is progged to be in the W of the state at about 4pm running from 
about Lorne - Mortlake - Swan Hill. Storms should fire near the axis of the 
trough with some nice convergence. The trough will be clearly defined as it was 
yesterday and I wouldn't want to be on the wrong wide of it as it will be dry 
with S'ly winds. The ranges will also kick off storms today given the unsettled 
nature of the day. 850mb temps are progged to warm slightly throughout the day 
from 16C to about 18C which should aid in capping convection until later on. The 
ranges should start to fire around Mt Baw Baw, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller after 2pm, 
other ranges will go closer to 4pm with the plains (off the ranges) probably 
going even later - close to 5pm. Of course the cap will be slightly weaker in 
the S so the SW areas near trough could potentially go a little earlier if they 
get some decent heating. 
<P>Shear across the state is quite marginal but not as slack as yesterday 
(although I was surprised by the anvils of the storms getting dragged off to the 
SE on a jet which looked to be about 25knts which was a bit more than progged). 
Given the shear progged by AVN and the BoM's aviaiton forecast, storms should 
move generally NW to SE but again storms could move in wierd directions due to 
progogation. Although the shear is marginal I think there will be just enough 
for storms to be somewhat organised. Given this and the fact that upper level 
temperatures are relatively cool I think we could see some severe storms today. 
Central, North Central, North Eastern, South/West Gippsland, Eastern and Alpine 
districts should all see severe storms. Note that these are all E of a line from 
about 144E - I think the upper level ridging will not allow for conveciton to 
reach severe levels (storms should still form along the trough but i don't think 
they'll be the best ones - they could, however, flatten to thundery rain later 
this evening giving us Melbournites a nice show tonight). Heavy rainfall leading 
to flash flooding (given that storms will be moving realtively slowly), damaging 
winds are possible and some large hail is also possible. I would speculate that 
hail could get as large as 3cm in the strongest storms today E of 144E 
especially in elevated areas where the FZL is lower. 
<P>While typing it looks like a cell popped up and down again to the WNW of Sale 
which is interesting. We could see things go a bit earlier than anticipated if 
heating gets in before the cap increases a bit. Given that its already 30/16 at 
my place and hitting high 20's/low 30's across much of central and north central 
Victoria, storms *may* take off early than initially thought. Some nice AcCas is 
sitting on the ranges at the moment and some Ac extends across to the western 
suburbs of Melbourne. 
<P>I'll be staying here for a while, watching and waiting. I don't think I'll be 
chasing west of 144E and given the current situation I think the area bounded by 
Melbourne - Seymour - Noojee - Mansfield would be a good start for today. I also 
think Seymour - Mansfield - Bright - Albury will be OK today. For those who like 
to sit and watch it happen from a distance a few places to watch from are the 
fire tower at Kangaroo Ground, Doncaster Shopping Town carpark and Mt Dandenong 
- all places have great views in almost all directions.
<P>Enjoy!!!! 
<P>Macca</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Arial size=2>(Andrew McDonald)<BR></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 14:09:32 +1100 (EDT)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Storm connoisseurs,

---------------

_My_ VIC SYNOPSIS:  Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough axis in W VIC.
Main marginal severe threat:  strong outflow winds and heavy rain from NNW - SSE moving 
storms.

--- details ---

With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features
than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act.
Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic
shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC,  and the ranges.

500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough
with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom.
Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late tonight.

For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over 
VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight.  Meso-LAPS progs (+12)
10-15 knots, but more from the NNW.  It also progs a peculiar
anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale.
Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC 
sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved 
hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM. 

However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a significant westerly LI 
gradient;  LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through W VIC
this afternoon.   

Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill,
which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough.

The best play, you ask?
Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see
the Cu field in it.  I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual practical 
considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley).  

Ooops, here is the 2:32 image:
* storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo)
* towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good boundary?)
* Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S
* Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection 

Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ...

Stay tuned.  Harald

-- 
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm 
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Andrew" <macca_wx at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:04:58 +1100
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Hi All,

The cap has just broken across the plains to the W of Melbourne with LARGE
TCu's exploding up into the cooler upper levels.  Weak Cb's have developed
near Werribee (not precipitating much) and more significant stuff has gone
near Geelong - now showing up on radar.  Cells to the E are still going and
are heading towards Moe and Sale.  Be interesting to watch their AWS obs
over the next few hours.

I'm going to hang here for another 20-30mins before deciding where to head.
Nothing is really standing out at the moment so I'll wait until it does.

Macca-wx



----- Original Message -----
From: Harald Richter <h.richter at bom.gov.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today


>
> Storm connoisseurs,
>
> ---------------
>
> _My_ VIC SYNOPSIS:  Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough
axis in W VIC.
> Main marginal severe threat:  strong outflow winds and heavy rain from
NNW - SSE moving
> storms.
>
> --- details ---
>
> With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features
> than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act.
> Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic
> shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC,  and the ranges.
>
> 500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough
> with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom.
> Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late
tonight.
>
> For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over
> VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight.  Meso-LAPS progs (+12)
> 10-15 knots, but more from the NNW.  It also progs a peculiar
> anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale.
> Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC
> sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved
> hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM.
>
> However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a
significant westerly LI
> gradient;  LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through
W VIC
> this afternoon.
>
> Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill,
> which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough.
>
> The best play, you ask?
> Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see
> the Cu field in it.  I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual
practical
> considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley).
>
> Ooops, here is the 2:32 image:
> * storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo)
> * towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good
boundary?)
> * Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S
> * Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection
>
> Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ...
>
> Stay tuned.  Harald
>
> --
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
> Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
> PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
> Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
> url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
> _________________________________________________________________________
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Subject: aus-wx: Current T'storms / VIC potential
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:23:52 +1100 (EDT)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Gang,

To put things a bit into perspective,  the trough in W VIC
is the southern extension of a continental-scale trough that
is linked to a thermally forced low in the Windorah (QLD) region.
SW QLD shows a closed circulation on the ground, and very rich
BL moisture to the NE.  There is a massive amount of lightning
in SW and S QLD where the low draws moisture into its circulation.
Scattered storms extend along the trough through W NSW down to 
about Swan Hill (VIC).

VIC:

Latest VIS shows Cu field right along a meridioanl moisture axis
W of MML.  Surface dewpoints are holding onto the lower teens 
despite temperatures in the low 30s.  Scattered thunderstorms
are evident just N of the VIC border in the SWan Hill region.
Temps there are 36C, just a little hotter to promote initiation.
Some locally deeper convection is evident WSW of Geelong (still) 
along a sea breeze convergence zone.

A second area of deep convection is evident along the ranges
extending ENE from about Mt Buller.  The lightning tracker shows nothing
for the mountain convection,  which I find very strange!

The big question for VIC is:  when (and where) will the first deep cell
emerge from the Cu soup between Colac and Swan Hill?  

Harald

-- 
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm 
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Smail" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:25:25 +1100
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Macca - Don't get too excited about Geelong just at the moment - it looks OK
on radar but its all virga.  Still dry as a bone although DP 17.  Lindsay
Smail.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Andrew
Sent: Friday, 1 February 2002 3:05 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today


Hi All,

The cap has just broken across the plains to the W of Melbourne with LARGE
TCu's exploding up into the cooler upper levels.  Weak Cb's have developed
near Werribee (not precipitating much) and more significant stuff has gone
near Geelong - now showing up on radar.  Cells to the E are still going and
are heading towards Moe and Sale.  Be interesting to watch their AWS obs
over the next few hours.

I'm going to hang here for another 20-30mins before deciding where to head.
Nothing is really standing out at the moment so I'll wait until it does.

Macca-wx



----- Original Message -----
From: Harald Richter <h.richter at bom.gov.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 2:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: VIC storms today


>
> Storm connoisseurs,
>
> ---------------
>
> _My_ VIC SYNOPSIS:  Widespread non-severe thunderstorms east of a trough
axis in W VIC.
> Main marginal severe threat:  strong outflow winds and heavy rain from
NNW - SSE moving
> storms.
>
> --- details ---
>
> With weak synoptic forcing today it'll be the subtle low-level features
> than will determine where and when the water vapour decides to act.
> Similar to yesterday, particular attention should be given to the cyclonic
> shear zone (trough) currently located in W VIC,  and the ranges.
>
> 500 hPa Meso-LAPS +6/+12 output has a mid-level thermal trough
> with T < -13C oriented N-S just E of Wilson's prom.
> Meso-LAPS also moves a 500 hPa thermal ridge into extreme W VIC by late
tonight.
>
> For this afternoon, AVN progs a light (10-20 knots) mid-level NW flow over
> VIC ahead of the approaching wave S of the Bight.  Meso-LAPS progs (+12)
> 10-15 knots, but more from the NNW.  It also progs a peculiar
> anticyclonic shear zone running from Albury/Wodonga to Bairnsdale.
> Current surface winds E of the weak surface trough in W VIC
> sport 5-20 knots from the N and NE, giving us a weakly curved
> hodograph with insufficient shear for supercells ATM.
>
> However, in terms of CAPE the AVN speaks a plain language with a
significant westerly LI
> gradient;  LIs are -3 to -6 E, and positive W of a meridional axis through
W VIC
> this afternoon.
>
> Storms have already initiated along the trough N of Swan Hill,
> which is located just E of the meridionally opriened trough.
>
> The best play, you ask?
> Once the 2:32 UTC GMS-5 VIS image is on my desk I'd be very keen to see
> the Cu field in it.  I'd play the trough, not the ranges for the usual
practical
> considerations (i.e. not getting stuck inside a valley).
>
> Ooops, here is the 2:32 image:
> * storms on the N ranges (S of Mansfield to Omeo)
> * towering Cu WSW of Geelong (hmmm - E seabreeze running into a good
boundary?)
> * Cu field just E of Swan Hill extending S
> * Cu field extending WNW from Geelong convection
>
> Maybe just W of Geelong - along Hamilton Hwy with a N-S option handy ...
>
> Stay tuned.  Harald
>
> --
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
> Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
> PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
> Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
> url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
> _________________________________________________________________________
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 16:52:00 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

David and I believe that the stills captured here by Sam Barricklow were of 
our car when we were reversing out near the railway line. You can tell I am 
the driver - look at the level difference between myself and David Croan...

http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg

http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052932.jpg

They are from this page

http://www.k5kj.net/010529.htm

Cheers I found it quite funny.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" <webmaster at kgl900.com>
To: "Aus Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ok here it comes
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:12:19 +1100
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Heavy rain just hit Winchelsea (Near Geelong)  at  1712 AEDST

Stew

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From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) syn Ken vs RNG's
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 16:08:46 +1000
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Hi all,

I sniff a fight... but anyway: It seems to me that the question was whether
or not Ken's forecast for rain was better than chance.  Using a few
particular random number sequences does not represent chance, unless you are
going to use many hundreds or thousands of such sequences and average the
results.  In any event, we now know what the chance for rain was on this
small sample, i.e., being simply the number of rainy days over all days,
i.e., 14/31 = 45%.  A random forecast for rain at 45% chance would therefore
get it right for about 20% of days.  Ken managed 4/31 = 13%.  Rather unlucky
as it happens!  Now if you allow his +- 1 day margin you get 7/31 = 23% -
but won't this always improve your odds over chance???? (a whopping 2/31  at 
45%, i.e., 3% for each rain period forecast in this case - quite a nifty way
to give yourself an edge!  The more rain periods forecast, the better the
edge over chance).

I must say from this that I doubt whether Ken's method has any validity
whatsoever, even a casual inspection of table reveals little correlation in
the rain periods, in fact there is a better inverse correlation.  Of course,
a much larger sample would obviously give a better picture.

Regards,
John W.

>snip
  Day  Obs  Ken  RNG#1  RNG#2  RNG#3  Mindless
  --------------------------------------------
  03   -    -    -      -      -         -
  04   -    -    -      -      -         -
  05   -    -    -      -      R         -
  06   R    R    -      R      -         -
  07   R    R    R      -      -         -
  08   -    -    -      -      -         -
  09   R    -    R      R      R         -
  10   -    -    -      -      -         -
  11   -    -    R      -      -         -
  12   -    -    -      -      -         -
  13   -    R    -      R      -         -
  14   -    R    -      -      -         -
  15   R    -    -      -      -         -
  16   R    -    R      -      -         -
  17   R    -    -      -      -         -
  18   R    -    -      -      -         -
  19   -    -    -      R      -         -
  20   -    R    -      -      -         -
  21   R    -    R      R      -         -
  22   R    -    -      -      -         -
  23   -    -    R      -      -         -
  24   R    R    R      R      -         -
  25   R    R    -      -      -         -
  26   -    R    -      R      -         -
  27   -    R    -      R      -         -
  28   -    R    R      -      R         -
  29   R    -    -      -      -         -
  30   R    -    R      -      R         -
  31   R    -    -      R      -         -

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" <webmaster at kgl900.com>
To: "Aus Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: forget it
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:17:10 +1100
Organization: www.kgl900.com
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eh rain ceased at 1716, quick spurt :)
More to come I think.

Stew

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:18:47 +1100 (EDT)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Lindsay typed:

> Macca - Don't get too excited about Geelong just at the moment - it looks OK
> on radar but its all virga.  Still dry as a bone although DP 17.  Lindsay
> Smail.

.... and I am looking W out of the conference room in Celsius House,  and I
see very nice young towers, and very sick older towers.  I am seeing 
the effects of some CAPE in the absence of good shear which could organise 
this mess.  I am also seeing the effects of a large surface dew point - temperature
spread (34/13) in the form of high bases and familiar virga. 
 
Some cells are now emerging from the Cu soup W of MML. The seabreeze
convergence line near Geelong is throwing up enhanced convection.  
The ranges are keeping Gippsland free of convection,  but with the high dewpoints 
this region might save its juice for later on (tonight/tomorrow).

I suspect that after the first cells put down some cold pools we shall
see the organisation of slightly better second-generation convection.
Meso-LAPS is increasing the shear later from the SSW, hopefully
organising the SW convection first (if present).

Cheers, Harald

-- 
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm 
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SSY rainfall FCST (final score) syn Ken vs RNG's
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:32:39 +1100 (EST)
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> I must say from this that I doubt whether Ken's method has any validity
> whatsoever, even a casual inspection of table reveals little correlation in
> the rain periods, in fact there is a better inverse correlation.  Of course,
> a much larger sample would obviously give a better picture.
> 

I'd want at least a year of data to be comfortable in drawing a firm
conclusion that Ken's method is of little value, but there has been 
nothing yet to suggest that it is on what we've seen so far.

Blair
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: RE: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 17:37:53 +1100 (EDT)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3]
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Hot spots:

* intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine

* sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues
  to shed cells into the Bay

* a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb
  from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)!

Have a good weekend,
Harald

-- 
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm 
_________________________________________________________________________
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:13:01 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last years US Chase - Is this us?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

LOL - was it really you?  Is it the same car you were driving?

AC

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> David and I believe that the stills captured here by Sam Barricklow were of
> our car when we were reversing out near the railway line. You can tell I am
> the driver - look at the level difference between myself and David Croan...
> 
> http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052930.jpg
> 
> http://www.k5kj.net/010529/01052932.jpg
> 
> They are from this page
> 
> http://www.k5kj.net/010529.htm
> 
> Cheers I found it quite funny.
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:14:03 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Just spoke to Macca again - he saw a funnel about 20mins ago - just a
small one, but quite long - I believe he has video of it!  He seems to
be enjoying himself with the RFBs, updrafts, anvils and mammatus!!!

AC

Harald Richter wrote:
> 
> Hot spots:
> 
> * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine
> 
> * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues
>   to shed cells into the Bay
> 
> * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb
>   from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)!
> 
> Have a good weekend,
> Harald
> 
> --
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
> Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
> PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
> Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
> url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
> _________________________________________________________________________
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 17:44:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Macca is just west of Melbourne (I think) and has just reported 1cm
hail!

AC

Harald Richter wrote:
> 
> Hot spots:
> 
> * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine
> 
> * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues
>   to shed cells into the Bay
> 
> * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb
>   from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)!
> 
> Have a good weekend,
> Harald
> 
> --
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
> Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
> PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
> Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
> url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
> _________________________________________________________________________
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 18:00:25 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Wow  at  Melbourne local!

The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had another
funnel!

AC

Harald Richter wrote:
> 
> Hot spots:
> 
> * intensifying cell (terrain-aided lifting) over Castlemaine
> 
> * sea-breeze convergence between Werribee and Avalon contiues
>   to shed cells into the Bay
> 
> * a line of convection (Anglesea-Winchelsea-...) has a 25 kt barb
>   from 260 pushing into its back side (Colac AWS)!
> 
> Have a good weekend,
> Harald
> 
> --
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
> Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
> PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
> Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
> url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
> _________________________________________________________________________
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: ajax.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 20:36:47 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
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To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
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In Clayton, a SErn suburb of Melbourne, there's been frequent lightning
(mainly CC) and thunder activity for the last hour an a half.  Currently
rain of 20-40mm/hr, although the heaviest stuff looks like it's going to
pass to the south.  However, I have yet to receive any form of wind gust
with this rain, it's been quite still throughout.  And the Melbourne local 
does look impressive!  It's a shame cos I really was in work mode today, 
but now with these storms....argghhhhh.

On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, Anthony Cornelius wrote:

> Wow  at  Melbourne local!
> 
> The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had another
> funnel!
> 


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

School of Mathematical Sciences
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 19:36:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting?
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Hi all,

Could see some interesting weather in the afternoon tomorrow (after the
Brisbane ASWA meeting).  A weakening upper level trough is moving over,
it certainly did a nice job of enhancing instability in the western half
of the state, tracker speaks for itself that's for certain!  A very
broad area of -4 to -6 is lying over SW QLD, with a smaller area of -6
to -8 LIs.  The upper trough is around -11C  at  500mb, -10C 200km north of
the border - still not bad.  That will is progged to weaken tomorrow,
only -8C  at  500mb which really isn't much at all.  But the instability is
progged to be higher, a nice area of -4 to -6 through SE QLD and NE NSW,
so there's certainly the instability there.

850 temps are a comfortable 18 to 19C, which is warm, but hopefully
should not pose too much of a problem to low-mid 30 temps and low 20
DPs.  The surface trough and convergence line should lie through the
Downs and into NE NSW and along the coast in NSW.

Shear will be the main problem, and may even become thundery rain due to
the slackness.  850 winds are confluent (thank God for small mercies!)
but 5-10 knots from the W.  700mb is 10-15 knots over SE QLD from the
SW...NE NSW a little better, 15-20 knots, which is just passable, but
it's still slack at 500mb, westerly at 15-20 knots.  But 300mb is much
better, 45-50 knots from the WNW.  It's not great, but it's certainly
not too bad and adequete.  Just a shame there wasn't an extra 10 knots
in the low-mid levels!  If you go higher, at 200mb the shear increases
to 55-60 knots.

It's a matter of seeing what happens, there's a fair amount of storm
development tonight actually in the NW Downs and SW Wide Bay/Burnett. 
My parents can see lightning every 1-2 seconds to their NW, but that's
about 120-140km away.  If only it can move east a little, but the shear
needs to strenghten.  However, it's encouraging to see development from
a weakening upper trough.  I'm hoping that the higher DPs on the coast
will offset the weakening of the upper trough.  But a lot will depend on
what happens tonight, especially if more cloud builds up!

The next Queensland ASWA meeting (first for 2002) will be held 
this Saturday the 2nd of February.  Some of the main features will 
include: 

- Showing of video footage (plenty of great storm and supercell days
since the last meeting!) 
- Discussion of the setup of a few of the major storm days 
- Feature presentation will be "What is a Supercell?" with a discussion
and presentation of this topic. 
- Usual "week in review" and "the week ahead" discussion topics 
- Recent ASWA affairs 

Date: Saturday, 2nd of February 
Time: 10am-2pm 
Place: "Pixel Components" Unit 9/14 Argon St. Sumner 
(Brisbane) 
What to bring?  Yourself, photos, videos - $4 for pizza and 
drinks. 

--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: ajax.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:18:14 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-X-Sender:  <robert at ajax.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


After I posted the message below, the lightning started to go off as an 
intense squall line came in from the northwest.  It gave me spherical hail 
to 1.5cm in diameter and some strong wind gusts later on, which judging by 
the trees, seemed around 20-25knots.  Since there isn't anything coming in 
from the northwest currently, I may follow the system to the east.


On Fri, 1 Feb 2002, Robert Goler wrote:

> 
> In Clayton, a SErn suburb of Melbourne, there's been frequent lightning
> (mainly CC) and thunder activity for the last hour an a half.  Currently
> rain of 20-40mm/hr, although the heaviest stuff looks like it's going to
> pass to the south.  However, I have yet to receive any form of wind gust
> with this rain, it's been quite still throughout.  And the Melbourne local 
> does look impressive!  It's a shame cos I really was in work mode today, 
> but now with these storms....argghhhhh.
> 


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

School of Mathematical Sciences
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Duncan & Mandy" <duncman at octa4.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin dryest January on record??
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 21:01:52 +1030
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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I noticed in the local NT newspaper (well, excuse for a newspaper) that
Darwin may have had it's dryest January on record? Dunno if this record was
broken. Anyone know about this? Quite unusual as the wet seasons up north
have had very high rainfall totals in the past few years.

After a few storms around Christmas, it's been very dry and pretty warm here
in Alice. Hanging out for the first Cyclone to hit NW W.A. (Will this ever
happen?) This usually means we get some rain as well.
Cheers,
Duncan
Alice Springs


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussy" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WOW
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:25:48 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4522.1800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Lots or reds on radar through central vic and 
around Melbourne at present. All stars here at present and a quite warm 30C 
still.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bussy (Rutherglen, NE 
Victoria)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 22:57:00 +1100
From: Greg Browning <gregf5 at iprimus.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Feb 2002 11:58:46.0552 (UTC) FILETIME=[CDA05980:01C1AB17]
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Hi All,

What an evening we have had in Melb.  For the last 2.5 hours I have been
treated to one of the most electrically-active TS systems I can
remember.  As it so happened, I was out chasing in the Ballarat to
Castlemaine region (West-central Vic) and only witnessed short-lived
weak cells over a period of a few hours, while noting the bulk of the
development seemed to be closer to Melbourne. While following a weak
cell along the Western Hwy. it became apparent that cells were becoming
more organised closer to Melb. so I followed one promising looking cell
right through to the SE suburbs where I live.  Within 10 minutes of
arrival a near stationary cell to the west started to put out regular
in-cloud lightning with the occasional CG. Soon thereafter cells were
popping up all around. Some were dominated by very frequent CC
strikes(av. about 1 per 3 seconds) while others were pumping out some
very healthy, and close, CGs. The cells were all slow moving and easy to
video as the lightning seemed to emanate from the same place for several
minutes at a time. Also experienced was some heavy rainfall (not quite
severe) and a couple of 25+ knot gusts.

All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure
to enjoy,

Regards,
Greg Browning
Mulgrave, Vic

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 01 Feb 2002 22:13:13 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Nick Sykes Caught 5M CG on Video, Sparks and all!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all!

Posting this for Nick Sykes (virga-wx to some), he captured a CG on
video about five metres from the car!  On the video you see that the car
gets showered in sparks from the CG!!!!!  Amazing!!!  I've uploaded it
for him at:

http://www.downunderchase.com/temp/power.mpg
(PS - if you don't like profanities I suggest your sound is muted).

He's gone out chasing again now, all happening in Melbourne!!!

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Damien Howes" <dhowes at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting?
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:32:16 +1000
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G'day Anthony + All.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 7:36 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting Weather for the Brisbane ASWA Meeting?


> Hi all,
>
> Could see some interesting weather in the afternoon tomorrow (after the
> Brisbane ASWA meeting).  A weakening upper level trough is moving over,
> it certainly did a nice job of enhancing instability in the western half
> of the state, tracker speaks for itself that's for certain! .

I was at Charleville today and the storms kicked off around midday. They
were very lightning active with frequent CGs. Also they were quite high
based i.e  around 7-8000' which made the ground strikes all the more
impressive. Unfortunately, and as is often the case with an upper trough the
decaying cells left behind copious amounts of cirrus and altocu/altostratus
which just sat and killed off the heating. The subsequent cells I passed
east of Charleville were weaker and more isolated. The cell that Anthony's
parents were watching had a particularly good overshoot around 7pm and, as
mentioned,  was quite lightning active and also seemed to be quite high
based. Lets hope the upper trough can give us in SE Qld some happy tomorrow.
Damien Howes

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 07:50:18 EST
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aus-wx here we go again
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<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2>All 
<BR>11.45 edt bayswater vic
<BR>good cell moving in here &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;cc &amp; cg &nbsp;I think this will be better than the one an hour ago . Looks like its moving W N W &nbsp;. Have fun &nbsp;!!!
<BR>
<BR>Dennis Cottle
<BR>
<BR></FONT></HTML>

</x-html>
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 02 Feb 02 00:50:46 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne
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Hello Greg!

01 Feb 02 22:57, you wrote to All:

 GB> All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure
 GB> to enjoy,

While I didn't go anywhere, I have to agree with this comment.  It was a very
enjoyable storm to watch. :)

Tony, VK3JED

..  at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 02 Feb 02 00:29:43 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: VIC storms today (update)
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway 
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Hello Anthony!

01 Feb 02 18:00, you wrote to All:

 AC> The hail got up to 2cm, and Macca just had to go because he had
 AC> another funnel!

Well, it was an interesting evening.  Started around 18:30 with two cells on
either side of here, one in the SW over Sunshine, which was particularly
intenst and one to the NE.  During the next 20 minutes or so, the cells linked
up and stayed overhead, with the result of steadiuly intensifying rain.
Finally, they moved SE with the prevailing movement and formed a broad red line
west of the city on the radar.

Later, a cell appeared out of nowhere about 5km to the west and intensified
rapidly.  This one produced a CG within 100m, before moving east and dumping on
the northern suburbs.

At 22:15, I went outside for a satellite pass.  Wx here was partly cloudy, but
the eastern sky was full of spectacular CCc from the cells which were now
around the Lilydale area.

Finally the last cell to arrive came around 23:15.  It started out spectacular,
but rapidly petered out overhead.


WX notes from other places (courtesy of IRLP)

Sydney - showers all day (boring :) ).
Mildura - No storms, but they did report the Swan Hill storm which apparently
damaged a few rooves.
Darwin - No storms up till 1930 CST

Well, been camped out on the #weather IRC channel all night - good fun when
there's something happening.



Tony, VK3JED

..  at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW
--
|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 09:14:15 EST
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms
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<x-html>
<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><FONT  SIZE=2>Hi all
<BR>cg just hit about 90 Mts from where I was standing --wow---flash bang !
<BR>Just came inside for a breather
<BR>
<BR>Dennis Cottle &nbsp;1.10 am &nbsp;2/02/2002</FONT></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin dryest January on record??
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 01:20:22 +1000
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Hi Duncan,

Certainly been dry in Brisbane too.  At Mt. Crosby we have had only one rain
day for the whole of January.  33mm on that day was good, but dismal
compared to Jan mean of 10 wet days & 125mm.

John.
>snip

I noticed in the local NT newspaper (well, excuse for a newspaper) that
Darwin may have had it's dryest January on record? Dunno if this record was
broken. Anyone know about this? Quite unusual as the wet seasons up north
have had very high rainfall totals in the past few years.

After a few storms around Christmas, it's been very dry and pretty warm here
in Alice. Hanging out for the first Cyclone to hit NW W.A. (Will this ever
happen?) This usually means we get some rain as well.
Cheers,
Duncan
Alice Springs

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Karl Lijnders" <weatherman1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 02:41:19 +1100
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<x-flowed>
I was pleased with the light show, 13 Flangs in 2 hours was not bad, 
certainly gave that neck hair a chance to stretch its legs, some of the 
intracloud lightning was spectacular.

Any reports on spectacular events in the surrounding areas of the metro 
area, I think we copped the best of it today.

Karl


>From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne
>Date: 02 Feb 02 00:50:46 +1000
>
>Hello Greg!
>
>01 Feb 02 22:57, you wrote to All:
>
>  GB> All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the 
>pleasure
>  GB> to enjoy,
>
>While I didn't go anywhere, I have to agree with this comment.  It was a 
>very
>enjoyable storm to watch. :)
>
>Tony, VK3JED
>
>..  at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW
>--
>|Fidonet:  Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
>|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
>|
>| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------




_________________________________________________________________
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp.

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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 02:26:25 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
From: Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Ken vs the RNG's - update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz  Fri Feb  1 19:22:16 2002
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: "Carl Smith" <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Cc: "Harald Richter \(by way of Carl Smith\)" <h.richter at bom.gov.au>,
   <astro-weather at topica.com>
Subject: Re: Ken vs the RNG's - update
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 22:19:36 +1300
MIME-Version: 1.0
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X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2600.0000

WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD

Hi folks
Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the
meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly
surprising.  As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree
that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the
rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a
bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only
casually in conversation and in answer to a question.
Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever
to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other
predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those
of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a
person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that?
Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in
hindsight on MY work...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to look
right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not
sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent
to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves
and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the
world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one
designed to go AHEAD.
So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only
REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out,
independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead
for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology
including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come,
and let's see what we all think is in store.
We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling
and whom I think we can all trust to be fair.
So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at
this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to
find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed
thus far to this lunar methodology debate.
I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about
the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than
my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't
then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge
then clearly I win by default.
sincerely
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com

~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

Email: carls at qldnet.com.au
Current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives:
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "aus-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Goodbye
Date: Fri, 1 Feb 2002 09:54:59 -0800
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Hi Everyone,

Well it has been some time since I posted to this group, mainly due to my
increasing work load related to my research. I do still read the occasional
interesting thread but at the moment I really don't have the time to sift
through all the emails. Hence, it is with a slightly heavy heart that I am
going to sign off but be asured, I'll be back one day.

Thanks for the stories, thanks for the education and most of all, thanks for
letting me know I wasn't the only weather crazy nut in Australia :)

Take it easy, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                      /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science          _    /  \
    .  Colorado State University                 / \  /    \
       ph:    +1 (970) 491 7785                 /   \/~~~~~~\/\
    .  fax:   +1 (970) 491 8166                /~~~~/       /  \
       email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu        /    /       /    \
       web:   http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/       /      \
    .

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Peter Matters" <pkmatters at bigpond.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 08:53:05 +1100
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Hi,
    After watching everyone else's fun for 3hrs, my turn came at 12.30 when
I was woken by a Flang!! Lightening was going off everywhere every few
seconds with continuous thunder. Most of the lightning was
reflective(couldn't see any strokes), and it lasted for an hour.
What a way to wake up!!
Peter(didjman)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Greg Browning" <gregf5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, February 01, 2002 10:57 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Spectacular light-show in Melbourne


> Hi All,
>
> What an evening we have had in Melb.  For the last 2.5 hours I have been
> treated to one of the most electrically-active TS systems I can
> remember.  As it so happened, I was out chasing in the Ballarat to
> Castlemaine region (West-central Vic) and only witnessed short-lived
> weak cells over a period of a few hours, while noting the bulk of the
> development seemed to be closer to Melbourne. While following a weak
> cell along the Western Hwy. it became apparent that cells were becoming
> more organised closer to Melb. so I followed one promising looking cell
> right through to the SE suburbs where I live.  Within 10 minutes of
> arrival a near stationary cell to the west started to put out regular
> in-cloud lightning with the occasional CG. Soon thereafter cells were
> popping up all around. Some were dominated by very frequent CC
> strikes(av. about 1 per 3 seconds) while others were pumping out some
> very healthy, and close, CGs. The cells were all slow moving and easy to
> video as the lightning seemed to emanate from the same place for several
> minutes at a time. Also experienced was some heavy rainfall (not quite
> severe) and a couple of 25+ knot gusts.
>
> All in all one of the most memorable Melb storms I've had the pleasure
> to enjoy,
>
> Regards,
> Greg Browning
> Mulgrave, Vic
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 08:53:41 +1100
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The next NSW ASWA Meeting will be held on Saturday February 16.

Venue - My place! 7 Sym Avenue Burwood, Sydney.
Time  - Midday till whenever.

It will be more of a BBQ/Video afternoon, and that evening, we plan to
see a movie at the westfield shopping centre 5 minutes walk away.
Bring some sausages/steak/drinks etc.
Also bring some storm video/documentarys/photos/anything. The video of
Twister the movie will also be shown.
Hope to see you there!

Matthew Smith and Matthew Pearce
NSW ASWA State Reps.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close.
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 12:20:54 +1100
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Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers,

I don't know what to say, I am lost for words.

I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth, seen
anything as spectacular as last night.

I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW and
Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night will
last me for a long time.

I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my video
from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and watching
Twister.

My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and e-mail's
to the list and otherwise not doing much.  Had a bit of a look outside at
about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was made
to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about.

Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a
hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up
Manchester Rd.  Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park to
have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice, there
wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some
heavy showers.  So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very nice
anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way.  By the time I
got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that the
anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to
Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner.  I ended up
getting dinner at about midnight.

By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant and
that's no exageration.  In the first half hour or so, there weren't many
CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for another
half hour or so.  Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention at
all of leaving.  I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was pretty
active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was forming
to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area.  I was watching anvil crawlers
from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in the
south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of
approx. 120k/m I would estimate.

The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into one
and then all hell broke loose.  Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant sheet
lightning and it lasted for hours.

I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as
that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed.  I counted
possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the
sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's of
blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular spot
and sending up massive green glows.

The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few
nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the
power lines I was standing under.

As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice heavy
shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it
cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the NW
with lots more lightning.

I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and saw
everything I could have wanted to.

The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static allowance
for the next 2 years.

Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for?  Ithink we
will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-)

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Chris


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 12:50:14 +1100
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was 
 close.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Wow Chris ! great report

Sounds like one hell of a night in melbourne, ive heard heaps from
Jane/Macca/Nick/Chris etc from last night. (4.2cm hail reported by Clyve!)
Cant wait to see the pics! Radar was very tasty at times with plenty of red in
cells as they tracked SE.
Great to see the storm drought broken down there recently :)

Matt Smith

Chris Daley wrote:

> Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers,
>
> I don't know what to say, I am lost for words.
>
> I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth, seen
> anything as spectacular as last night.
>
> I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW and
> Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night will
> last me for a long time.
>
> I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my video
> from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and watching
> Twister.
>
> My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and e-mail's
> to the list and otherwise not doing much.  Had a bit of a look outside at
> about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was made
> to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about.
>
> Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a
> hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up
> Manchester Rd.  Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park to
> have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice, there
> wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some
> heavy showers.  So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very nice
> anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way.  By the time I
> got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that the
> anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to
> Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner.  I ended up
> getting dinner at about midnight.
>
> By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant and
> that's no exageration.  In the first half hour or so, there weren't many
> CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for another
> half hour or so.  Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention at
> all of leaving.  I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was pretty
> active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was forming
> to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area.  I was watching anvil crawlers
> from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in the
> south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of
> approx. 120k/m I would estimate.
>
> The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into one
> and then all hell broke loose.  Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant sheet
> lightning and it lasted for hours.
>
> I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as
> that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed.  I counted
> possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the
> sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's of
> blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular spot
> and sending up massive green glows.
>
> The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few
> nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the
> power lines I was standing under.
>
> As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice heavy
> shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it
> cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the NW
> with lots more lightning.
>
> I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and saw
> everything I could have wanted to.
>
> The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static allowance
> for the next 2 years.
>
> Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for?  Ithink we
> will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-)
>
> WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
>
> Chris
>
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that was close.
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 13:02:47 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Matt,

Thanks, only my second published report, I hope I am putting in all the
important info.

I will be getting some frame grabs from my video off to Jane to put up on
the web site tonight hopefully and depending on how my photo's come out, I
will probably do some scans too.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at cnn.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, February 02, 2002 12:50 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms, Alt. title; Wooooooooo, Crikey that
was close.


> Wow Chris ! great report
>
> Sounds like one hell of a night in melbourne, ive heard heaps from
> Jane/Macca/Nick/Chris etc from last night. (4.2cm hail reported by Clyve!)
> Cant wait to see the pics! Radar was very tasty at times with plenty of
red in
> cells as they tracked SE.
> Great to see the storm drought broken down there recently :)
>
> Matt Smith
>
> Chris Daley wrote:
>
> > Guys, Girls and statically charged photographers,
> >
> > I don't know what to say, I am lost for words.
> >
> > I have never, ever, in my entire 30 odd years of walking this earth,
seen
> > anything as spectacular as last night.
> >
> > I usually sit here at my computer cursing about how good you guys in NSW
and
> > Qld get it during storm season, but I don't care now cause last night
will
> > last me for a long time.
> >
> > I am sitting here at the moment taking a break from going through my
video
> > from last night, waiting to pick up my photo's from last night and
watching
> > Twister.
> >
> > My day started at about 4:00pm yesterday, looking at the radar and
e-mail's
> > to the list and otherwise not doing much.  Had a bit of a look outside
at
> > about 6:00pm and thought it was looking promising, so the decision was
made
> > to go for a quick scout around Mooroolbark to see what was about.
> >
> > Got my stuff together and was out the door at around 7'ish (wasn't in a
> > hurry, didn't really look like it would do much from here) and headed up
> > Manchester Rd.  Pulled over at the horse paddock's near Chirnside park
to
> > have a look at the cell over Melbourne and while it looked quite nice,
there
> > wasn't much static on AM and it looked like it would just pass with some
> > heavy showers.  So I headed over to Mooroolbark Rd as I had seen a very
nice
> > anvil out to the NE which looked like it was over Eildon way.  By the
time I
> > got to the Mooroolbark Rd - Maroondah Hwy intersection I could see that
the
> > anvil had broken free of it's base and was breaking down, so back to
> > Manchester Rd to shoot a bit of video and go home for dinner.  I ended
up
> > getting dinner at about midnight.
> >
> > By the time I got back to Manchester Rd, the static on AM was constant
and
> > that's no exageration.  In the first half hour or so, there weren't many
> > CG's or visible CC's/Sheet, but I thought I would stick it out for
another
> > half hour or so.  Well, at the end of that half hour I had no intention
at
> > all of leaving.  I was watching 3 cells, one to the S of me which was
pretty
> > active, one over the CBD which was going off tap and a cell that was
forming
> > to the NW over the Sunbury/Tullamarine area.  I was watching anvil
crawlers
> > from the cell over Melbourne going across to the anvil of the cell in
the
> > south then back over the top of where I was standing, a round trip of
> > approx. 120k/m I would estimate.
> >
> > The cell to the south and the one over Melbourne seemed to merge into
one
> > and then all hell broke loose.  Massive CG's, CC's, almost constant
sheet
> > lightning and it lasted for hours.
> >
> > I had my video camera pointed towards Ringwood almost the whole time as
> > that's where most of the action was and I was not disappointed.  I
counted
> > possibly 5 powerflashes that looked like they might have come from the
> > sub-station in Ringwood off Hetherdale Rd, I haven't seen any report's
of
> > blackouts or anything, but there were CG's hitting in one particular
spot
> > and sending up massive green glows.
> >
> > The cell then started to move over towards where I was and gave us a few
> > nice close strikes, which would have been fantastic if it wasn't for the
> > power lines I was standing under.
> >
> > As the main cell that was over Melbourne passed over it gave us a nice
heavy
> > shower with some small 3-4mm hail and more anvil crawlers and after it
> > cleared and started moving to the SE, another cell was building in the
NW
> > with lots more lightning.
> >
> > I was out for about 4 and a half hours all up, all at the same place and
saw
> > everything I could have wanted to.
> >
> > The only problem is that we have probably used up all our static
allowance
> > for the next 2 years.
> >
> > Jane, how long will the Pancake Parlour let us use the room for?  Ithink
we
> > will have about 45 hours of video to watch at the next meeting. :-)
> >
> > WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
> >
> > Chris
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [144.132.45.8]
From: "Liam Domanski" <gashband at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne last night
Date: Sat, 02 Feb 2002 16:58:04 +1100
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Feb 2002 05:58:05.0082 (UTC) FILETIME=[94B7D7A0:01C1ABAE]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all.

What a fantastic day/night!!!!!!!!!!!

Started with a chat with Macca on the net, then a drive to Calder Park 
raceway to see a small funnel.

Then follow a nice cell back home to Donvale with some nice heavy rain.

A little later on I took a short drive to Doncaster shoppingtown and took 
some FANTASTIC video footage of the storms as they crossed the city.  Some 
nice power flashes lighting up the ground in a greeny red flash.  I stayed 
there for several hours until the cells passed by, then followed them 
towards the SE suburbs and got slammed by golf ball sized hail (very sparse 
though).  Luckily the car was fine.

Back home for a swim in the still 30 deg plus heat (this was at 11:30 or 
so), only to be hit by yet MORE HUGE STORMS!!!!!

Got some great lightning footage out my bedroom door.  Lots of anvil 
crawlers and ribbons of lighting crossing the sky, and a CG hitting a tree 
only 200m away!!!!  FLANG!!!!!

INCREDIBLE!!!!

Lets hope for some more storms of this calibre very soon.


Liam

_________________________________________________________________
Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Ken Ring" <ken at weatherman.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 11:27:04 +1300
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Hi folks
Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the
meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly
surprising.  As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree
that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the
rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a
bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only
casually in conversation and in answer to a question. I didn't even cover
the
whole month. Carl mentioned it on your list and the pirhanas moved in.
Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever
to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other
predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those
of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a
person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that?
Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did was comment in
hindsight on MY opinion...excuse me...but isn't the idea of forecasting to
look
right ahead with nothing to help you except your own forecasting method, not
sideways with a critical eye to see what others are doing? It was equivalent
to Lennox Lewis shadow-boxing and a statistical machine analysing his moves
and coming out with a reason why he wasn't heavyweight champion of the
world. The only RNG program I'd sit up and take notice of is the one
designed to go AHEAD.
So, if ANYONE who doubts my lunar method is up to it, I propose the only
REAL test. Let Harald(or any non-lunarist) and myself set out,
independently, a daily rain forecast for February (or any other month) ahead
for Sydney. My opponent can use standard meteorological methodology
including any RNG process that he/she wants, and I the moon phases to come,
and let's see what we all think is in store.
We can both submit our projections to Carl, who started this ball rolling
and whom I think we can all trust to be fair.
So what do you say, Harald and co-dissenters? How good really are you all at
this weather business? Or do you just sit back and find mathematical ways to
find fault with the methods of others? Because that's ALL you've contributed
thus far to this lunar methodology debate.
I'm ready and raring to go. Either way it will stop the speculation about
the lunar method. If I come out with a higher number of real-life hits than
my opponent then lunar forecasting accuracy is to be respected. If I don't
then I will concede defeat. BUT..if no one accepts this real-life challenge
then clearly I win by default.
sincerely
Ken Ring
www.predictweather.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Fearby" <simon at fearby.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: When lightning strikes, satellite map shows where (NASA):
Date: Sat, 2 Feb 2002 18:03:02 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000
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Full Story:
http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/01/30/lightning.strikes.map/index.html

Picture:
http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/space/01/30/lightning.strikes.map/link.large.ex
clude.html

"Reds and blacks on land depict where strikes occur the most; greens and
yellows show middle ranges; and blues and purples represent least active
regions. Click to larger image for complete map and key of annual number of
strikes per square kilometer. "


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au
Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 00:42:59 +1000
To: Aussie Weather List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        astro-weather at topica.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at qldnet.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Fair tactics? - Ken Ring vs the RNGs - final result
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

Now that the time period is over Harald has decided to post the better
timed information that he apparently has access to so we now have a record
of which days rain actually fell on making my method of distributing
observations over 2 days obsolete.

I notice that he remined silent while watching me wrestle with inadequate
information after I suggested that he post better info if he had it - at
the very least he could have pointed me to a better source so I could get
it myself.  It now appears as if he had a vested interest in keeping it as
difficult as possible for me to verify the results using what I consider to
be fair methods.

Note also that his RNG's are not really random, each having had Rain/Fine
proportional fractions factored into them of the order that a meteorologist
could reasonably expect the ratio of Rain to Fine days to be in Sydney. I
have yet to see a single post supporting the idea that these particular
RNG's somehow offer a fair comparison.

The Obs on the 18th Harald now puts as "R?" he previously posted as a
definite "R".  It took Laurier to point out that the Obs was only 0.2mm of
rain so was questionable in the context of "rain" days, and it now turns
out that Harald was uncertain which day it actually fell on when he gave it
a definite "R". It could appear that he was trying to "stack the deck" at
the earlier stage of the exercise when he thought no one was monitoring
things that closely, although it could also be an honest mistake realised
later. In any case I have chosen to regard such a trifling sprinkle as
insignificant in the context of this type of forecast and the 18th is a "-"
day in my table.

In fairness to Ken, the leeway allowance *should* be incorporated into
*any* valid daily "hits" type of verification scheme - to do otherwise is
not actually testing Kens method but is testing a hypothetical forecast
done to someone elses standards.

Until such time as meteorologists can come up with their own long range
forecasts to an accuracy better than +-1 day they really have no moral
right to impose overly stringent standards on long range forecasts made by
others and then use contrived artifices masquarading as random forecasts in
comparisons in order to try to discredit their work.

To fair minded people such tactics could appear to be an abuse of power in
order to try to predetermine a particular outcome to serve a vested
interest.


Now on to the results.

I have started from square one with the better quality observations and
simplified my methods to suit.

Note that the period of the observations included in the revised test are
from Jan 3 to 31 for which we now have solid data, and that my application
of the leeway excludes any adjacent day where the Fcst is of the same type
to avoid some extra 'double' hits that could otherwise occur. This biases
the test in favour of the RNG's as the scattering of "R"'s and"-"'s down
their columns enables them to potentially get far more hits than Ken
because his forecasts are arranged in window blocks that can only get
leeway hits at either end.

Given that Harald questioned the validity of my methods in his post whilst
his own methods are clearly questionable, I am going to elaborate where
appropriate, as openness and a fair go are two things I firmly believe in.

As a direct comparison to Haralds method where he does not allow Ken's
leeway, here are the results of the Hits +-1 day method:


Number of Rain Hits +-1 day
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
12    7     6     4     3     0     12
41%   58%   50%   33%   25%   0%    100%

Here, Ken comes out a clear winner if we ignore the control "Flood" which
hits on all Obs "R"'s  by design.

The hits are simply determined by using Ken's stated leeway as a rule:
if Fcst = "R" then if the Obs = "R" on the same day it is a hit, and if the
first case misses then an Obs "R" on the previous day or the following day
is a hit provided that the same adjacent Fcst day is not itself "R".

The percentage scores displayed as rounded to nearest whole number are
determined relative to the Obs score, where if Fcst <= total Obs the result
= 100 * (Fcst / Obs) percent, and if Fcst > Obs the result = 100 * (Obs /
Fcst) percent. This deals with the small possibility of any Fcst getting
too many hits from the application of the leeway rule by penalising it.

Given the RNG's tendancy to scatter "R"'s down their column whereas Kens
are in "R" window blocks, the RNG's have a significant statistical
advantage with the application of the leeway rule as all "R" days can
potentially score with leeway if they miss a direct hit, however even with
this advantage they did not come up trumps.

The result of 58% is probably less than what Ken would himself be happy
with, and he has since said that his forecast was somewhat hurried and he
was not aware of how much scrutiny it would get. He has generously offered
to do a Sydney forecast for any month agreed to as a true test of his
abilities.


Number of Fine Hits +-1 day
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
17    14    17    15    16    17    0
59%   82%   100%  88%   94%   100%  0%

Here RNG#2 is the winner and all RNG's did better than Ken, once again
ignoring the control "Drowt". Rule same as above substituting "-" for "R".

As noted above, the RNG's have a significant advantage with the application
of the leeway rule, and they have all come in with higher scores than Ken.


Total Number of Hits +-1 day
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
29    21    23    19    19    17    12
100%  72%   79%   66%   66%   59%   41%

In the overall result for this method, RNG#1 is a clear winner with Ken
second.

The results of the previous two methods are added after first adjusting
them for the relative proportions of the Rain and Fine days in the Obs.


I feel any Fcst with a similar number of "R" and "-" days to the Obs
regardless of timing has some merit, so here is method 2 simply comparing
the total number of Fcst "R" or "-" days to the total number of Obs "R" or
"-" days.


Number of Rain Days
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
12    10    9     9     4     0     29
41%   83%   75%   75%   33%   0%    41%

Here Ken comes out a clear winner. In spite of clever programming factors
introduced by Harald, none of the RNG's generated sufficient rain days to
beat Ken.


Number of Fine Days
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
17    19    20    20    25    29    0
59%   89%   85%   85%   68%   59%   0%

And Ken wins again. Haralds clever programming made all the RNG's come out
with numbers that were too high.


Total All Days
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
29    29    29    29    29    29    29
100%  87%   81%   81%   54%   34%   17%

And on proportionally distributed percentages Ken wins again. Perhaps if
Harald had spent more time playing with his non-random RNG's he could have
come up with better numbers.


To complete the 3 method set, here are the results of comparing the number
of Rain or Fine periods (windows) regardless of timing. Any method that can
forecast close to the correct number of windows has some merit.

Number of Rain Windows
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
5     4     8     8     4     0     1
56%   80%   63%   63%   80%   0%    20%

Here Ken & RNG#3 are equal winners. Of course, as RNG#3 only forecast 4
days of rain over the entire period, it's result here is diminished in
importance.

Number of Fine Windows
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
4     5     9     8     5     1    0
44%   80%   44%   50%   80%   25%   0%

And here Ken & RNG#3 are again equal winners. See note above on RNG#3.

Total Number of Windows
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
9     9     17    16    9     1     1
100%  80%   54%   57%   80%   11%   11%

And a dead heat again with proportional distribution. See note above on RNG#3.


A final score can be determined by simply adding the final total
percentages of the 3 sections and dividing by 3, which helps iron out any
bias advantages of particular methods:

Final Average
Obs   Ken   RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood
100%  80%   72%   68%   66%   35%   23%

Here Ken has come out a clear winner taking out the best score when
averaged over the 3 analysis methods.

It should be noted that Ken claims an accuracy of about 70 percent if his
+-1 day leeway is allowed - whilst this sample is too small to draw firm
conclusions, it certainly tends to back up his claim with 72% in the Hits
+-1 day section, 87% in the number of days section, 80% in the number of
windows section, and 80% final average over all 3 methods.

If anyone wishes to do their own verifications of Ken's work in his 'home'
territory of New Zealand where he is likely to have better accuracy due to
familiarity with local conditions, you will find his forecasts for the
month ahead for many places in New Zealand on his website at
http://www.predictweather.com - click on the "Free Month" link.

Full details of my methods will appear on my website soon for anyone that
wishes to look into them further.

Evaluation Table pasted below.

Regards,
Carl.

Dy  Obs    Fcst1  Fcst2  Fcst3  Fcst4  Fcst5  Fcst6
Ja         Ken    RNG#1  RNG#2  RNG#3  Drowt  Flood


03  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
04  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
05  -      -      -      -      R      -      R
06  R      R      -      R      -      -      R
07  R      R      R      -      -      -      R
08  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
09  -      -      R      R      R      -      R
10  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
11  -      -      R      -      -      -      R
12  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
13  -      R      -      R      -      -      R
14  -      R      -      -      -      -      R
15  R      -      -      -      -      -      R
16  R      -      R      -      -      -      R
17  R      -      -      -      -      -      R
18  -      -      -      -      -      -      R
19  -      -      -      R      -      -      R
20  -      R      -      -      -      -      R
21  R      -      R      R      -      -      R
22  R      -      -      -      -      -      R
23  -      -      R      -      -      -      R
24  R      R      R      R      -      -      R
25  R      R      -      -      -      -      R
26  -      R      -      R      -      -      R
27  -      R      -      R      -      -      R
28  -      R      R      -      R      -      R
29  R      -      -      -      -      -      R
30  R      -      R      -      R      -      R
31  R      -      -      R      -      -      R


~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast.
Queensland.
Australia.

Email: carls at qldnet.com.au
Current Tropical Cyclone information :
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives:
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: WHY THE RNG PROCESS DOES NOT IN ANY WAY COMMENT ON THE LUNAR METHOD
Date: Sun, 3 Feb 2002 01:14:10 +1000
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Hi Ken

Forgive me if I am wrong, but I thought that the RNG's were forecast at the
beginning of the month and therefore were a valid future forecast as any
other - albeit based upon no meteorological theory.

As it happens, I agree with you totally that the RNG's examination was
amusing but useless as a way of validating your forecast or method.  Any
method applied to forecasting must do better than chance to be worthwhile,
and obviously that is all that the random numbers are, therefore as a method
for forecasting the RNG's are totally useless.

But the point surely is to do better than chance.  Therefore it is pointless
competing against one other single individual who is using some other
method, as quite possibly that individual will also be doing no better than
chance, i.e., he is only as good as using a single RNG.  Either he will do
better than you, the same as you or worse than you.  But it proves nothing
unless you compare favourably against a very great number many of people
making similar 'random' forecasts.

Of course, the average of all these forecasts will only tend towards chance
anyway.  So forget that whole exercise and just compare your results against
chance.  This will need a large data set to be meaningfull - at least a year
maybe several unless your method is much better than chance, in which case
the trend will show up sooner than later.  It follows from this that the
only scientifically acceptable proof of your method is a positive comparison
against chance over time.

I am not a total skeptic as far as the lunar influence is concerned.  Far
too many things happen to fall on a 28 day cycle to be happenstance.  As I
have previously pointed out, changes seem to arive on the East coast of
Australia on a 7 day cycle for months on end, and 4 x 7 = 28 of course.
However, one should not forget that the time of the week for a change in
Sydney will naturally be different for Adelaide, Aukland or Perth gievn the
Eastward travel time.  Curiously, the 7 day cycle has recently broken down
and we are in limbo currently.  And it is raining at Mt. Crosby for only the
second time this year.  Yet just 150km South of here in Lismore NSW, they
have had 9 days straight of good rain.  I wonder if your method can
accomodate such variation over short distances.

With regard to scientific methods employed by the BoM, currently the best we
can do is 4 to 5 days ahead with any certainty.  It is doubtfull that we
will ever achieve better than 10 days ahead.  This is explained by a branch
of science called Chaos theory which allows for an insigificant event to
initiate a chain of sucessively larger events which eventually causes a
significant event.  Because our best computer models cannot know about or
predict insignificant events - therefore there will always be future
significant events which cannot be predicted.  And the further you look
ahead the less predictable it becomes.

We have had for many years a celebrated long range forecaster in this
country, Lennox Walker by name, however he has always forecast seasonal
trends rather than individual events, based largely on similarity of weather
patterns in past experience.  But as with clairvoyants, folk tend to
remember the few spectacular successes and not the many failures.

Sydney is a good location for test purposes, as it really has no distinct
wet season with fairly even rainfall distribution throughout the year.  We
also have many years of data on record, thus the mean annual number of wet
days is known with some certainty, i.e., it may be assumed that the chance
of rain on any given day is known with some certainty.

So here is my challenge to you:  Apply your method seriously and make a full
12 month forecast for Sydney and let us see how it compares against chance
over a full 12 months.  And no +- leeway please, as that defeats the
objective by considerably improving your odds.

To make it interesting, lets put a slab (24 cans) of Steinbeck on table that
you cannot do better than 1% outside chance.

Regards,
John (recently annointed Piranha)
>snip

Hi folks
Well, what an interesting exercise. I came bottom in the eyes of the
meteorology world and top in the eyes of lunar sympathisers. Hardly
surprising.  As scientists and mathematicians we would all have to agree
that the sample was a bit small to be taken seriously. If I had known the
rigors of examination that were going to be involved I would have taken a
bit more time and accuracy. As it was, the dates I gave Carl were only
casually in conversation and in answer to a question. I didn't even cover
the
whole month. Carl mentioned it on your list and the pirhanas moved in.
Whilst interesting in itself, the RNG examination had very little whatever
to do with actual weather forecasting. Noticeably absent were any other
predictions to stack against mine. Where was the test of my methods vs those
of mainstream science? I was stacked against a statistical machine, not a
person. I WAS THE ONLY PLAYER! What kind of a contest is that?
Anyone can see that ALL the RNG process ACTUALLY did