http://australiasevereweather.com/ From: "Tina Jones" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Happy New Year Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 00:05:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Happy New Year to you all, and more snow on the way!!!! Tina :-) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 11:45 PM Subject: aus-wx: Happy New Year > HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!! > > PS: there's still a lot of snow lying up the top of the Snowy Mtns!! > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nathan Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Happy New Year Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 01:47:01 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, Have a Happy New Year 2002 everyone! From Nathan. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 11:15 PM Subject: aus-wx: Happy New Year > HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!! > > PS: there's still a lot of snow lying up the top of the Snowy Mtns!! > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 01:38:12 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Get a load of this Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Paul. >HI Carl, > >Thanks for this. I havnt been getting regular JTWC updates lately for some >reason. This one must have been one that was missed. > >Waka formed within the "cyclone" side of the pacific didnt it? Rather then >the "hurricane" side? My guess ... I think that in the Southern Hemisphere they are all known as cyclones. Hurricane is only used in the N Atlantic and the NE-NC Pacific. > >As for cyclogenesis theories I have always wondered about the "cant". My >reason (and I am no way a scientist etc) - the earth is a sphere. It tilts >during seasonal oscilations (23degress or sumthin?) wouldnt then then >"centre" of gravity tilt with it? We know that air masses now can cross the >equator (i.e. monsoon - ITCZ etc),and the "centre" or convergence zone of >the hadley cell of that air mass follows - so why not the coriolis effect. > >EG - at spring and autumn the sun is directly overhead of the equator , >while in summer the sun is directly overhead the respective tropic. Wouldnt >then the coriolis effect and the "no-form" zone shift accordingly? Otherwise >wouldnt there be some displacement or imbalance (ie. coriolis effect at >equator, when the equator is at that stage literally the tropic where the >sun is according to the tilt? (now if anyone can make sense of this then >please see a Doctor....) hehe > >Just some ramblings for thought. > The coriolis effect is due to the Earth spinning on it's axis, and is always relative to the true Equator of date, which always stays within a few km's of the line drawn on maps as the Equator. The seasonal variation in the Sun's declination is caused by the fact that the Earth is spinning on an axis that is tilted about 23.5 degrees from the axis of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. This axis does not change very quickly, taking about 26000 years to complete a precession cycle around the Earth's orbital axis. In the short term, the Earth's rotational axis is more or less constant, and as the Earth moves around the Sun, it exposes more of one hemisphere to the Sun during one half of it's orbit and more of the other hemisphere during the other half of it's orbit. This gives us our seasons. Hope that clarifies the picture for you. Regards, Carl. > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Carl Smith" >To: >Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 1:46 PM >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Get a load of this > > >> Hi Paul. >> >> >Phil - I thought that Vaemei was only a Tropical Storm (JTWC only has it >as >> >a Tropical Storm).? >> > >> >Rgds, Paul. >> >> >> Have another look at JTWC's warning - it is called a Tropical Cyclone. >> >> >WTIO31 PGTW 302100 >> >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI) WARNING NR 001 >> > 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO >> > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE >> >> Anything stronger than a tropical depression is called a Tropical Cyclone >> when in the Bay of Bengal. You may also note that WAKA is called a >Tropical >> Cyclone in the JTWC warnings although it is of hurricane intensity. >> >> As for Vamei, this was remarkable as it struck just north of Singapore as >a >> Typhoon at latitude 1.5 degrees north with the cloud bands extending >across >> the Equator into the southern hemisphere - see the image showing this on >my >> page at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm below the satpic >> animation - time for someone to have another look at cyclogenesis theories >> as TC's are not supposed to be able to develop within about 5 degrees of >> the Equator. >> >> Here is an extract of the relevent JTWC warning: >> >> >WTPN31 PGTW 270900 >> >1. TYPHOON 32W (VAMEI) WARNING NR 002 >> > 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC >> > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE >> > --- >> > WARNING POSITION: >> > 270600Z5 --- NEAR 1.5N6 104.4E9 >> > MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS >> > POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM >> > POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF >> > SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA >> > PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: >> > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT >> > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT >> > 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT >> > 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT >> > 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT >> > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT >> > 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT >> > 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT >> > OVER WATER >> > 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT >> > REPEAT POSIT: 1.5N6 104.4E9 >> >> Regards, >> Carl. >> >> >> >> ~~~~~~~~~~ >> Carl Smith. >> Gold Coast. >> Queensland. >> Australia. >> >> Email: carls at qldnet.com.au >> Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ >> Current Tropical Cyclone information : >> http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm >> Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : >http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm >> >> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north. Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 12:20:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Morning all,
 
Interesting visible image this morning...
 
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 4:25 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Latest TC Outlook.
 
Thursday could see the new years first TC.
 
A developing TROPICAL LOW 1004 hPa is situated in the northern Gulf of
Carpentaria.
At 2pm it was near latitude 11.5S, longitude 138.0E, about 150 km
northeast of Nhulunbuy, and almost stationary.  The LOW is expected to move
towards the south or southwest.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days, provided the low remains over water, is estimated to be:
     Tuesday:     low,
     Wednesday:   moderate,
     Thursday:    high.
As for movemenr, dont know. The BOMs TLAPS Cyclone Hi Res product actually shows a more westward movement. Who knows..... awaiting the most recent diagnostic statement from the BOM. Perhaps they are expecting a monsoonal surge associated with this Low, which would drive it to the South / SW.
 
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com
Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au
ICQ: 111144666
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 10:27 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
How unlucky could they be... It missed the lighting rod!!! That would have to be the most unluckiest radar ever!
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 9:38 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Hi Jason,
 
The AP radar is not protected by the outer shell like most of the fulltime weather radars. Apparently it took a direct strike..... which is really amazing since they have a whopping big lightning rod only several metres away....
 
Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 10:38 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
 
Must have been a storm and a half.... Did the strike hit the radar only?? or did it take out other equipment?
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 7:22 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Anyone wondering why there are NO Darwin soundings lately - there was a direct lightning strike on the BOM Airport Radar ($2million worth of damage) during Friday's huge storm (AP received 42mm in 10 mins or so...)
 
A consequence - no soundings til radar is replaced or repaired. And just after they had recalibrated it as well and finally got decent radar images for Darwin.....
 
Paul in Darwin.
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: First TC advice for the new year! Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 12:42:48 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1 
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Tuesday 1 January 2002

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between NHULUNBUY and the QUEENSLAND BORDER.

At 11 am CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of Carpentaria about 130
kilometres east southeast of NHULUNBUY and 220 kilometres northeast of
ALYANGULA, moving slowly south, parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of
Carpentaria. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours,
however gales could develop later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 8 am CST:
. Centre located near      : 12.6 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy        : within 30 kilometres  
. Recent movement          : towards the south at 5 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre   : 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure         : 1003 hectoPascals

People between NHULUNBUY and the QUEENSLAND BORDER should listen for the next
advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 10:50 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Morning all,
 
Interesting visible image this morning...
 
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 4:25 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Latest TC Outlook.
 
Thursday could see the new years first TC.
 
A developing TROPICAL LOW 1004 hPa is situated in the northern Gulf of
Carpentaria.
At 2pm it was near latitude 11.5S, longitude 138.0E, about 150 km
northeast of Nhulunbuy, and almost stationary.  The LOW is expected to move
towards the south or southwest.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days, provided the low remains over water, is estimated to be:
     Tuesday:     low,
     Wednesday:   moderate,
     Thursday:    high.
As for movemenr, dont know. The BOMs TLAPS Cyclone Hi Res product actually shows a more westward movement. Who knows..... awaiting the most recent diagnostic statement from the BOM. Perhaps they are expecting a monsoonal surge associated with this Low, which would drive it to the South / SW.
 
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com
Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au
ICQ: 111144666
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 10:27 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
How unlucky could they be... It missed the lighting rod!!! That would have to be the most unluckiest radar ever!
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 9:38 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Hi Jason,
 
The AP radar is not protected by the outer shell like most of the fulltime weather radars. Apparently it took a direct strike..... which is really amazing since they have a whopping big lightning rod only several metres away....
 
Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 10:38 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
 
Must have been a storm and a half.... Did the strike hit the radar only?? or did it take out other equipment?
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 7:22 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Anyone wondering why there are NO Darwin soundings lately - there was a direct lightning strike on the BOM Airport Radar ($2million worth of damage) during Friday's huge storm (AP received 42mm in 10 mins or so...)
 
A consequence - no soundings til radar is replaced or repaired. And just after they had recalibrated it as well and finally got decent radar images for Darwin.....
 
Paul in Darwin.
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: First TC advice for the new year! Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 12:58:08 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Can anyone say why emails are being sent twice? Seems to be happening regularly lately....
 
Paul.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: First TC advice for the new year! Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 14:33:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Almost current visible image (1.30AEDST)
 
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:12 PM
Subject: aus-wx: First TC advice for the new year!

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1 
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Tuesday 1 January 2002

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities
between NHULUNBUY and the QUEENSLAND BORDER.

At 11 am CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of Carpentaria about 130
kilometres east southeast of NHULUNBUY and 220 kilometres northeast of
ALYANGULA, moving slowly south, parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of
Carpentaria. GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours,
however gales could develop later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 8 am CST:
. Centre located near      : 12.6 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
. Location accuracy        : within 30 kilometres  
. Recent movement          : towards the south at 5 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre   : 80 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure         : 1003 hectoPascals

People between NHULUNBUY and the QUEENSLAND BORDER should listen for the next
advice which will be issued at 5 pm CST.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 10:50 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Morning all,
 
Interesting visible image this morning...
 
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 4:25 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Latest TC Outlook.
 
Thursday could see the new years first TC.
 
A developing TROPICAL LOW 1004 hPa is situated in the northern Gulf of
Carpentaria.
At 2pm it was near latitude 11.5S, longitude 138.0E, about 150 km
northeast of Nhulunbuy, and almost stationary.  The LOW is expected to move
towards the south or southwest.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days, provided the low remains over water, is estimated to be:
     Tuesday:     low,
     Wednesday:   moderate,
     Thursday:    high.
As for movemenr, dont know. The BOMs TLAPS Cyclone Hi Res product actually shows a more westward movement. Who knows..... awaiting the most recent diagnostic statement from the BOM. Perhaps they are expecting a monsoonal surge associated with this Low, which would drive it to the South / SW.
 
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com
Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au
ICQ: 111144666
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 10:27 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
How unlucky could they be... It missed the lighting rod!!! That would have to be the most unluckiest radar ever!
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 9:38 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Hi Jason,
 
The AP radar is not protected by the outer shell like most of the fulltime weather radars. Apparently it took a direct strike..... which is really amazing since they have a whopping big lightning rod only several metres away....
 
Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 10:38 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Paul,
 
Must have been a storm and a half.... Did the strike hit the radar only?? or did it take out other equipment?
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, December 30, 2001 7:22 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin and north.

Anyone wondering why there are NO Darwin soundings lately - there was a direct lightning strike on the BOM Airport Radar ($2million worth of damage) during Friday's huge storm (AP received 42mm in 10 mins or so...)
 
A consequence - no soundings til radar is replaced or repaired. And just after they had recalibrated it as well and finally got decent radar images for Darwin.....
 
Paul in Darwin.
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: First Coral Sea TC? Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 13:15:47 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all - looking at NOGAPS, and its a little way off, but there appears to be a reasonable TC developing off the NE near PNG, then slinging SE towards the QLD Coast.
 
Anyone excited....? Yes Yes I know its a little too far out .... but the current BOM MSLP chart has a Low there, and with the surge of the monsoon conditions could be right!
 
Paul
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 12:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: First TC advice for the new year!

Can anyone say why emails are being sent twice? Seems to be happening regularly lately....
 
Paul.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Dustdevil rips roof off.. Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 15:06:40 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Article from the Bendigo Advertiser, courtesy of Rod Aikman. Maybe this will convince people not to drive through them..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/29_12_01dd.htm -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p51-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.51] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: smoke over NZ Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 17:41:07 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
There is a layer of smoke in the middle atmosphere over Auckland. I first noticed it yesterday and it gave us a
coloured sunset last night. Its still there today and probably thicker. This smoke is obviously ex NSW.
Its not the first time Australian bush fire smoke has hazed up our skies. Ash Wedenesday was probably the most
extreme case.
Cheers
Steven Williams  
From: "Adam Mayo" To: "Australian Severe Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Sydney Fires Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 16:57:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
     There is a fire at South Turramurra with evacuations ordered for Bowen Street and two other streets.  The police are about to close the M2 motorway due to the fires proximity to the road.
 
The temperature  here at Mona Vale is currently 34 degrees with a strong south westerly wind which is bringing us thick smoke.
 
The Mayos
Date: Tue, 01 Jan 2002 17:12:35 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Fires Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 38C here in Newcastle again today, been a very hot week. 38.5 at williamtown at the moment.

Large fire towards Cessnock, massive amounts of smoke, no idea how big it is but it has to be huge. Another fire to the north towards stockton beach as well.

Melting.

Matt Smith

Adam Mayo wrote:

     There is a fire at South Turramurra with evacuations ordered for Bowen Street and two other streets.  The police are about to close the M2 motorway due to the fires proximity to the road. The temperature  here at Mona Vale is currently 34 degrees with a strong south westerly wind which is bringing us thick smoke. The Mayos
From: "Carolyn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Fires Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 18:24:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Heavy smoke coming from the fires at Bulga and further south.  Sun is just an orange glow in the sky.  More fires around Mulbring/Pelaw Main and Kurri Kurri.  Things are not looking good this way.
 
Carolyn
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 5:12 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney Fires

38C here in Newcastle again today, been a very hot week. 38.5 at williamtown at the moment.

Large fire towards Cessnock, massive amounts of smoke, no idea how big it is but it has to be huge. Another fire to the north towards stockton beach as well.

Melting.

Matt Smith

Adam Mayo wrote:

     There is a fire at South Turramurra with evacuations ordered for Bowen Street and two other streets.  The police are about to close the M2 motorway due to the fires proximity to the road. The temperature  here at Mona Vale is currently 34 degrees with a strong south westerly wind which is bringing us thick smoke. The Mayos
From: "Rhett Blanch" To: Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Tamworth - Manilla - 30th December Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 21:29:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I've posted some images I took of a storm on a chase on the 30th December around Tamworth and Manilla NSW. They can be found at: http://www.wilgatree.com/reports/20011230_manilla_tamworth.htm I also took some sunset shots the day before these are at: http://www.wilgatree.com/gallery/sunsets_bectivegidley.htm Rhett +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1 Date: Tue, 01 Jan 2002 18:49:40 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jacob Subject: aus-wx: New December record for Perth Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It said on channel 10 news tonight, that for the first time in 105 years of records, the Perth City site failed to get over the 32C mark in December, the highest for the month was only 31.8C on the 15th. The average December max of 26C was also below average, the normal max temp for December is 28C. This comes after one of the hottest November's on record, when we recorded 12 days of temps over 30C, beating the old record of 11 days in 1920. We averaged 27.4C in November, warmer than December, which was the equal second highest November average max on record. But it seems the heat will be back, it was 31.6C today (Tuesday), 33C is forecast for tomorrow, 34 for Thursday, cooling down a bit after that, then it should be back into the mid 30's by early next week. Jacob +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "islesit" To: Subject: aus-wx: RE: hot on the north coast of NSW Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 23:05:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Today the temp in Coffs Harbour reached 39C officially at the airport which is near the ocean. Im only a few miles away but it was 40.3C or 104 degrees! Kempsey and Grafton which are inland from the coast reached 40C. That's hot for Coffs Harbour . We also had the highest minimum temp overnight in NSW at 26 degree's overnight. Ian. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: TC Vamei? Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 09:56:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Have another look at JTWC's warning - it is called a Tropical Cyclone. > > >WTIO31 PGTW 302100 > >1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (VAMEI) WARNING NR 001 > > 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO > > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE > > Anything stronger than a tropical depression is called a Tropical Cyclone > when in the Bay of Bengal. You may also note that WAKA is called a Tropical > Cyclone in the JTWC warnings although it is of hurricane intensity. > > As for Vamei, this was remarkable as it struck just north of Singapore as a > Typhoon at latitude 1.5 degrees north with the cloud bands extending across > the Equator into the southern hemisphere - see the image showing this on my > page at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm below the satpic > animation - time for someone to have another look at cyclogenesis theories > as TC's are not supposed to be able to develop within about 5 degrees of > the Equator. > > Here is an extract of the relevent JTWC warning: > > >WTPN31 PGTW 270900 > >1. TYPHOON 32W (VAMEI) WARNING NR 002 > > 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC > > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE > > --- > > WARNING POSITION: > > 270600Z5 --- NEAR 1.5N6 104.4E9 > > MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS > > POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM > > POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF > > SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA > > PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: > > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT > > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > > 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > > 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > > 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > > OVER WATER > > 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > > REPEAT POSIT: 1.5N6 104.4E9 > > Regards, > Carl. Carl, have you heard any accounts of damage etc associated with this storm when it hit Singapore? I have always been led to believe that 8N/S is about the closet a TC can develop to the equator. This seems to be a truely extraordinary system, if it really was a TC within 2 deg of the equator.. Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 10:55:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Jan 2002 23:57:58.0278 (UTC) FILETIME=[2340F260:01C19320] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all Tropos.
Two areas of interest for TC watchers, the Gulf area is still showing positive development although inflow convergence is variable with occasional weakening and redevelopment,the surface low is difficult to pin down but seems to have moved or redeveloped over the central Gulf area which may favour better organization today. What seems to be a better prospect is a rather strong looking development centred near 10 south 165east near to Honiara and only moving slowly,this development is at the far north-western end of a trough extending from southeast of NZ. This system is showing signs of vacuum cleaning the area around its circumference. The former TC well east of NZ has fully transformed into an extra tropical low. regards Clyve H.
 
PS. At the other end of the scale the cold air region over Tasmania and Victoria will become increasingly more unstable today with the risk of the odd strong cold air storm,even the possibility of wet snow above 1500m.
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host p116-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.116] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 13:41:08 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi,
I'm relieved the tail of Waka is off to the east of NZ because they can really muck the weather up for a few days. Like
Victoria, NZ has had an unmemorable summer thus far. And we don't need the rain. Most parts of the North island received
200-300mm for December. Sky is still a bit dirty here with NSW smoke but clearing I think. Yesterday this visibility
was reported at 4km along Auckland's west coast, 10km generally.
Regards
Steven Williams
Auckland
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 12:55 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.

Hi all Tropos.
Two areas of interest for TC watchers, the Gulf area is still showing positive development although inflow convergence is variable with occasional weakening and redevelopment,the surface low is difficult to pin down but seems to have moved or redeveloped over the central Gulf area which may favour better organization today. What seems to be a better prospect is a rather strong looking development centred near 10 south 165east near to Honiara and only moving slowly,this development is at the far north-western end of a trough extending from southeast of NZ. This system is showing signs of vacuum cleaning the area around its circumference. The former TC well east of NZ has fully transformed into an extra tropical low. regards Clyve H.
 
PS. At the other end of the scale the cold air region over Tasmania and Victoria will become increasingly more unstable today with the risk of the odd strong cold air storm,even the possibility of wet snow above 1500m.
From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 11:57:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
These are the villains Clyve is referring to:
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:55 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.

Hi all Tropos.
Two areas of interest for TC watchers, the Gulf area is still showing positive development although inflow convergence is variable with occasional weakening and redevelopment,the surface low is difficult to pin down but seems to have moved or redeveloped over the central Gulf area which may favour better organization today. What seems to be a better prospect is a rather strong looking development centred near 10 south 165east near to Honiara and only moving slowly,this development is at the far north-western end of a trough extending from southeast of NZ. This system is showing signs of vacuum cleaning the area around its circumference. The former TC well east of NZ has fully transformed into an extra tropical low. regards Clyve H.
 
PS. At the other end of the scale the cold air region over Tasmania and Victoria will become increasingly more unstable today with the risk of the odd strong cold air storm,even the possibility of wet snow above 1500m.
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p100-nas11.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.213.100] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 15:54:05 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Last couple of years there have been some intense Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and affecting NW Australia.
This season looks very quiet up there. Must be the Pacific's turn.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 1:57 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.

These are the villains Clyve is referring to:
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:55 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.

Hi all Tropos.
Two areas of interest for TC watchers, the Gulf area is still showing positive development although inflow convergence is variable with occasional weakening and redevelopment,the surface low is difficult to pin down but seems to have moved or redeveloped over the central Gulf area which may favour better organization today. What seems to be a better prospect is a rather strong looking development centred near 10 south 165east near to Honiara and only moving slowly,this development is at the far north-western end of a trough extending from southeast of NZ. This system is showing signs of vacuum cleaning the area around its circumference. The former TC well east of NZ has fully transformed into an extra tropical low. regards Clyve H.
 
PS. At the other end of the scale the cold air region over Tasmania and Victoria will become increasingly more unstable today with the risk of the odd strong cold air storm,even the possibility of wet snow above 1500m.
X-Originating-IP: [165.228.129.11] From: "David Sercombe" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: RE: hot on the north coast of NSW Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 03:13:32 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Jan 2002 03:13:32.0914 (UTC) FILETIME=[75A44D20:01C1933B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At my place we got 40 as well (only 1km away from the BoM at Coffs). David Sercombe Coffs Harbour NE NSW _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 14:41:46 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Jan 2002 03:41:46.0301 (UTC) FILETIME=[66FAA6D0:01C1933F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Steve

I wouldn't write the Indian Ocean off yet.  The cyclones that spawn and do their business there seem to manifest themselves later than their Pacific cousins, close to Australia.  Also (going on the indicator of costal crossings) there are more generated in the Indian Ocean adjacent to Australia than compared to a comparable area of the Pacific Ocean, off the Queensland coast.

The impression I have, is that over recent years, quite a large number have begun their life in the Gulf of Carpentaria, for such a small body of water.

The number of cyclones travelling from East to West and then crossing the Queensland coast, south of Townsville, seems to have been especially low in recent years.

Regards, Michael



 

>From: "Steven Williams"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.
>Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 15:54:05 +1300
>
>Last couple of years there have been some intense Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and affecting NW Australia.
>This season looks very quiet up there. Must be the Pacific's turn.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Keith Barnett
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 1:57 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.
>
>
> These are the villains Clyve is referring to:
>
> http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0640.html
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Clyve Herbert
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 10:55 AM
> Subject: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff.
>
>
> Hi all Tropos.
> Two areas of interest for TC watchers, the Gulf area is still showing positive development although inflow convergence is variable with occasional weakening and redevelopment,the surface low is difficult to pin down but seems to have moved or redeveloped over the central Gulf area which may favour better organization today. What seems to be a better prospect is a rather strong looking development centred near 10 south 165east near to Honiara and only moving slowly,this development is at the far north-western end of a trough extending from southeast of NZ. This system is showing signs of vacuum cleaning the area around its circumference. The former TC well east of NZ has fully transformed into an extra tropical low. regards Clyve H.
>
> PS. At the other end of the scale the cold air region over Tasmania and Victoria will become increasingly more unstable today with the risk of the odd strong cold air storm,even the possibility of wet snow above 1500m.


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From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victoria!! Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 15:10:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Hail, thunder, amazingly grunty Cb's & possible funnels (I'll check the video tonight)...and it's been snowing at Mt Hotham - if you're in Victoria, keep your eyes open - you ight see something exciting this afternoon!! Jane +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew Miskelly" To: Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: WxProfiler 1.00 Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 15:46:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, To those who are WxProfiler users, version 1.00 is now available at http://www.theweather.com.au/wxprofiler/. There is also a thread in the 'Technical Discussion and Research' forum at Weatherzone for any problems or other discussion relating to it. Andrew. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 18:34:24 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Sorry about the last Email please disregard it. TC for Gulf. The soon to be named (TC BERNIE) Will be developing early tomorrow. Might be worth while keeping an eye out for it. Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 18:40:29 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 Jan 2002 08:41:06.0730 (UTC) FILETIME=[383AA0A0:01C19369] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Did disregard earlier e-mail But are you 100% convinced that it may not be Bonnie ? I think Bernie is odds on at this stage though. Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 18:39:52 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Lightning List , Wx-Chase Subject: aus-wx: Stormchase Reports 21st and 22nd of December, 2001 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I have uploaded three reports for December 21 and 22. December 22 is the main report (part one, day and part 2, night) - part 2 has lots of lightning captures from the electrical storms! Part 1 is the left moving supercell that produced several funnels under the meso area (and well...you be the judge for the other lowering/shading behind). I got two very close CGs, both instant - one has a thunder recording (it's like a gunshot), and the other struck about 20m away while I was standing outside the car! I actually felt the wind/shockwave from it!!! The URL is: http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/ They are the top three reports. -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 19:24:37 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Simon..... I'm sure that its going to be named BERNIE. Check with some one from the BOM if you can or any one else can?... I may not be right but I think thats what its going to be. Simon - Do you have ICQ? Jason º¿º ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Clarke" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 6:40 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE > Did disregard earlier e-mail > > But are you 100% convinced that it may not be Bonnie ? > > I think Bernie is odds on at this stage though. > > > Regards > Simon > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 23:30:28 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: smoke over NZ Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 17:41 1/01/02 +1300, you wrote: > There is a layer of smoke in the middle atmosphere over Auckland. I >first noticed it yesterday and it gave us a Its still there today and >probably thicker. This smoke is obviously ex NSW. Ash Wedenesday was >probably the most extreme case. Cheers Steven Williams Christchurch's turn today. Lovely smokey/hazy, orange sky with a warm NW blowing. Still 31c here at 6:30pm after getting to 33.8C here. I hope some more thunderstorms occur here later this week, better than the ones I missed last week! JohnGaul NZTS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Aus,Tropo stuff. Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 22:06:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I agree with that, in fact all the past La Nina years that were projected to above average SW Pacific seasons ended up duds.
 
 
 
The number of cyclones travelling from East to West and then crossing the Queensland coast, south of Townsville, seems to have been especially low in recent years.
 
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 23:10:45 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Well, today we got hail, I videoed (blurry but there) a funnel over Port Phillip Bay & thunder again today making it 2 out of 2 for 2002 in Melbourne.....these are distant shots unfortunately & a bit hard to make out - but there were 2 needles & one heck of a wall cloud!! http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon01.JPG http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon02.JPG http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon03.JPG http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon04.JPG this one shows it the best - but even that's not that good (hit F11 and roll backwards from the computer to see it a bit better) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon05.JPG http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon07.JPG http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon08.JPG So I got a bit excited!! what do you expect to see when you wander up the hill for lunch????? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 21:40:20 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vamei? X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com David, I'll pick up this one as brother Carl is probably quite busy at the moment. There are several threads in our local Forum here with quite a lot of links to damage and storm reports in Singapore: http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3372.html? WednesdayJanuary220020406pm http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3370.html? TuesdayJanuary120021204pm http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3354.html? SundayDecember3020010809pm http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3353.html? SundayDecember3020010956pm http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3350.html? FridayDecember2820010632pm In case there are problems with the above links which will probably be split in half in most e-mail programs, I have pasted below a response to my query about a TC so close to the Equator by Mike Middlebrooke, veteran TC specialist meteorologist currently located in Guam: ============= By Mike Middlebrooke on Sunday, December 30, 2001 - 01:13 pm: Vamei was a classic case of cyclostrophic flow--a balance between centrifugal force and pressure gradient. When applying the gradient wind equation to the case of a small intense vortex very near the equator like Vamei, the Coriolis term fV is very small compared with the centifugal term V2/r. In these terms, f is the Coriolis term 2Wsinf, where W is the earth's angular rate of rotation and f is latitude. (W = 7.3 x 10-5/sec.) V is wind speed and r is the radius of curvature of the flow. A good measure of the validity of the cyclostrophic approximation is simply the ratio of the centrifugal and Coriolis terms, or V/fr. This is euivalent to the Rossby number Ro used in mid-latitudes to assess the validity of the geostrophic wind approximation. The geostrophic wind is a good approximation when Ro is very small; i.e., much less than one. On the other hand, the cyclostrophic wind is a good approximation when Ro is large, so that the Coriolis term can be neglected. Indeed, at large enough Ro, the flow around a center of low pressure can be either cyclonic or anti-cyclonic. In Vamei's case, at f=1.5 deg N, if we set the radius of curvature at r=50000 metres (50 km) and assume a wind speed of V=35 m/s, then Ro = V/fr = 369. That is, the centrifugal force is 369 times greater than the Coriolis force in this case. Now go to latitude 40 deg N, and a vortex with r = 2000 metres; a very large tornadic vortex. With V again 35 m/s, Ro = 373. Thus, the case of Vamei is comparable to large a mid-latitude tornado. Since anticyclonic tornados do occur on occasion, then not only is it possible for Vamei's circulation to lap over the equator without "reversing," it is even possible for a system like Vamei to rotate anticyclonically, and even cross the equator! Of course, such a situation would be very rare, for two reasons. First, the formative stages of a TC nearly always involve a significant contribution from the Coriolis term; that is, TCs normally form in a cyclonic environment. Second, a cyclone that suddenly finds itself in the wrong hemisphere would normally soon be disrupted by that hemispere's flow patterns, which would not tolerate a wrong-way cyclone for very long. Nevertheless, a small intense cyclone with good central convection could theoretically survive on the wrong side as long as it stays within a degree or so of the equator, maintains a tight strong cyclostrophic circulation, and minds its own business! So how did Vamei happen? (The question of the week in Singapore!) My guess is a fortuitous combination of a strong NE monsoon surge in the NH, a strong SW flow crossing the equator, and a pre-existing area of concentrated convection where the two flow regimes met to start a circulation with good low-level convergence and a strong centrifugal contribution from the start. Something like this must be quite rare, and could probably only occur when a strong winter monsoon surge could run into a westerly surge from the summer hemisphere. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ By Mike Middlebrooke on Sunday, December 30, 2001 - 01:38 pm: Phil, Sat imagery for Vamei is available at the Naval Research Lab web site at http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tc_home Click on the thumbnail image, and when the next page comes up go to the top bar and click "prev." to go to the list of available pictures. You can also look at TRMM microwave images at 85 and 37 GHz. =============== If you are interested, I can also look up some postings in the international CYCLONES discussion group I belong to. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 09:56:32 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: TC Vamei? [snip] > Carl, > > have you heard any accounts of damage etc associated with this storm > when it > hit Singapore? I have always been led to believe > that 8N/S is about the closet a TC can develop to the equator. This > seems to > be a truely extraordinary system, if it really was a TC within 2 deg of > the > equator.. > > Regards, > > David > > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 12:12:44 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Simon..... I'm sure that its going to be named BERNIE. > Check with some one from the BOM if you can or any one else can?... I may > not be right but I think thats what its going to be. Bernie's next on the Queensland list and Bonnie on the NT list. If the system gets named, I'm not sure whether it is named on the basis of where it was when it first formed (which was in the NT region) on where it is when it is named (it's currently in the Queensland region). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Sha" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: VANUATU ISLANDS Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 13:22:36 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi guys
 
Considering the proximity to Australia of this recent earthquake, I am looking closely into any possible repercussions. 
 
A major earthquake occurred IN THE VANUATU ISLANDS about 30 miles (50 km) west of Port-Vila or about 1160 miles (1860 km) east-northeast of Brisbane, Australia at 10:22 AM MST today, Jan 2, 2002 (Jan 03 at 4:22 AM local time in Vanuatu Islands). A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.3 WAS COMPUTED FOR THIS EARTHQUAKE.
 
Here is a map showing how very close it was !!  http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/earthvu.gif
A close-up cane be viewed here : http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/closevu.gif
 
I don't know how long it takes for a swell to build up, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if those large waves that some of us, myself and son included, have dreamt about are perhaps on their way ! The site I have accessed for info is concerned with the US, so info on other areas is not discussed.  It has been said at that site that a wave was not generated, and on the areas given for warning, they have simply shown the coastal areas on the west coast of the US as being watched.  they have not made any comments about the areas possibly affected apart from the US.  (see warning map here : http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/wwareas.gif)
 
BUT .......... by taking a look at the map here : http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/ttvu.gif, which shows the time taken for the tsunami (if it developed) to travel, it is only a matter of a possible few hours from the Qld coast !  This is noted at the site :
 
Map indicates travel times only; NOT that a wave was generated
 
Let us wait and see ????

Love
Sha
 
 

 
 

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Embedded Content: earthvu.gif: 00000001,08fc360b,00000000,00000000 X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 13:30:45 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >> >> Simon..... I'm sure that its going to be named BERNIE. >> Check with some one from the BOM if you can or any one else can?... I may >> not be right but I think thats what its going to be. > >Bernie's next on the Queensland list and Bonnie on the NT list. If the >system gets named, I'm not sure whether it is named on the basis of >where it was when it first formed (which was in the NT region) on >where it is when it is named (it's currently in the Queensland region). > >Blair I think it will get it's name from the list of the region that is handling it when named (but I could be wrong!). As this one has a case of the meanders, it is still a bit of a lottery whether it will remain being handled by Brisbane or drift further W to be handled by Darwin again. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 14:10:16 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Looks like we do not have to discuss it anymore, BERNIE it is! BoM TCA below. Regards, Carl. >IDQP0005 >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY >Queensland Region >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > >Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this >warning. > > >TOP PRIORITY >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15 >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane >For 1355 EST on Thursday the 3rd of January 2002 > >A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between PORT >ROPER in the Northern Territory and KARUMBA in Queensland. > >A Cyclone WATCH extends north from PORT ROPER to ALYANGULA in the Northern >Territory and from KARUMBA to KOWANYAMA in Queensland. > >AT 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, CATEGORY 1 was centred >in the >Gulf of Carpentaria about 270 kilometres eastnortheast of PORT MCARTHUR >and 230 >kilometres north northwest of MORNINGTON ISLAND, near stationary. Cyclone >BERNIE >is slowly intensifying. > >GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the >coast >between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA overnight. > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Roper-McArthur district >and the >Queensland Gulf country. > >Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, Category 1 at 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST >Central Pressure : 995 Hectopascals >Location of Centre : within 60 kilometres of > latitude 14.6 degrees south > longitude 138.8 degrees east > about 230 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Island >Recent Movement : near stationary >Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour. > >People between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA should consider what action they >will need >to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice at >5pm EST /4:30pm CST. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 15:18:54 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: humour? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The meteorologist ----------------- Although he was a qualified meteorologist, Hopkins ran up a terrible record of forecasting for the TV news program. He became something of a local joke when a newspaper began keeping a record of his predictions and showed that he'd been wrong almost three hundred times in a single year. That kind of notoriety was enough to get him fired. He moved to another part of the country and applied for a similar job. One blank on the job application called for the reason for leaving his previous position. Hopkins wrote, "The climate didn't agree with me." Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Sha" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: TSUNAMI of 2 January 2002 Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 14:19:57 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi guys
 
Now, they are saying a Tsunami was generated.
TSUNAMI of 2 January 2002

A major earthquake with a surface wave magnitude of 7.4 occurred at 1723 UTC 2 January 2002 and was located near the Vanuatu Islands (17.7S 168.0E, 33km depth).

The earthquake produced a tsunami that was recorded at Port Vila, Vanuatu (operated by the National Tidal Facility of the Flinders University of South Australia). The maxiimum peak-to-trough wave height can be seen from the graphic to be approximately 40 cm  http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/01-02-02.htm

I guess there is also the strong chance of aftershocks triggering more instability. 
 
Love
Sha
 
 

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TV news reports upto 600mm rain has fallen on the South Islands West Coast last couple of days. Intense
Thunderstorms have deluged the region. Oregraphic forcing has enhanced an unstable trough.
 
X-Originating-IP: [144.134.27.16] From: "Nathan Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2002 16:58:05 +1000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 06:58:05.0358 (UTC) FILETIME=[FE41DCE0:01C19423] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com i heard there being something about a cyclone off cairns i looked at the satellite picture and there was nothing really there any ideas? nate _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p226-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.226] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 20:25:09 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, Theres a tropical disturbance in the solomons area that could produce a cyclone threat for the Coral Sea next week. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Nathan Smith" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 7:58 PM Subject: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? > i heard there being something about a cyclone off cairns > > i looked at the satellite picture and there was nothing really there > > any ideas? > > nate > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 17:55:22 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 07:56:01.0489 (UTC) FILETIME=[16315C10:01C1942C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Jason Yep, it's Bernie. I love the guessing game. Just thought that it may have drifted a bit more SW and entered NT's naming area that's all, and then we would have had Bonnie. However it is a fair guess that it would have been Bernie as Brisbane took over responsibility earlier on. Not the type of question I would bother anyone at BoM with. Plenty of (varying accuracy) lists about. Pardon me, but what do mean by "do I have ICQ ?" Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 17:58:16 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nate. I'm not sure about that! where did you get your information from? I will check into it for you but but the look on the current GMS 5.. its looking pretty clear for the new week or so. Jason PS. If there was a cyclone of Cairns I would be the first to know about it.... Because I live there : ) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Nathan Smith" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:58 PM Subject: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? > i heard there being something about a cyclone off cairns > > i looked at the satellite picture and there was nothing really there > > any ideas? > > nate > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:06:58 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, Well I guess I was right on that one. : ) Just checking latest Satellite images and it look as though its gathering a better LLC. It is expected to deepen to aprox : 990 HP by later on tonight. So might be worth while having a look on RADAR for it. Any way here is the latest Advice. Regards, Jason º¿º ----------------- TOP PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16 Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane For 1650 EST on Thursday the 3rd of January 2002 A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between PORT ROPER in the Northern Territory and KOWANYAMA in Queensland. A Cyclone WATCH extends north from PORT ROPER to ALYANGULA in the Northern Territory and from KOWANYAMA TO CAPE KEERWEER in Queensland. AT 5pm EST / 4:30 pm CST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, CATEGORY 1 was centred in the Gulf of Carpentaria about 260 kilometres eastnortheast of PORT MCARTHUR and 190 kilometres north northwest of MORNINGTON ISLAND, moving slowly south. Cyclone BERNIE is slowly intensifying. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the coast between PORT ROPER and KOWANYAMA overnight. HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Roper-McArthur district and the Queensland Gulf country. Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, Category 1 at 5pm EST / 4:30 pm CST Central Pressure : 992 Hectopascals Location of Centre : within 60 kilometres of latitude 15.0 degrees south longitude 138.9 degrees east about 190 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Island Recent Movement : slowly south Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour. People between PORT ROPER and KOWANYAMA should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice at 8pm EST /7:30pm CST. ------------------------------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Carl Smith" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 2:10 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE > Hi All. > > Looks like we do not have to discuss it anymore, BERNIE it is! > > BoM TCA below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > >IDQP0005 > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > >Queensland Region > >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > > >Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this > >warning. > > > > > >TOP PRIORITY > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15 > >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > >For 1355 EST on Thursday the 3rd of January 2002 > > > >A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between PORT > >ROPER in the Northern Territory and KARUMBA in Queensland. > > > >A Cyclone WATCH extends north from PORT ROPER to ALYANGULA in the Northern > >Territory and from KARUMBA to KOWANYAMA in Queensland. > > > >AT 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, CATEGORY 1 was centred > >in the > >Gulf of Carpentaria about 270 kilometres eastnortheast of PORT MCARTHUR > >and 230 > >kilometres north northwest of MORNINGTON ISLAND, near stationary. Cyclone > >BERNIE > >is slowly intensifying. > > > >GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the > >coast > >between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA overnight. > > > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Roper-McArthur district > >and the > >Queensland Gulf country. > > > >Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, Category 1 at 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST > >Central Pressure : 995 Hectopascals > >Location of Centre : within 60 kilometres of > > latitude 14.6 degrees south > > longitude 138.8 degrees east > > about 230 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Island > >Recent Movement : near stationary > >Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour. > > > >People between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA should consider what action they > >will need > >to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice at > >5pm EST /4:30pm CST. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:22:09 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 08:22:49.0165 (UTC) FILETIME=[D4713FD0:01C1942F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jason Ok so you were right on that one. Would you like to predict a name for that currently 'sheered' system well well well east of the QLD coast if it develops ? Appears to be moving slowly WSW at the moment. EPI, YOLANDE, CLAUDIA or maybe a "non event" ? Yours is first guess. Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:34:31 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hahahahahaha. No I think that I will be all right on that one..... It dosent look as though its going to have any effect on Australia's Weather any how. By the way i'm not into the Predicting business for cyclones.... as they are UNPREDICITABLE Regards Jason º¿º ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Clarke" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 6:22 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE > > Jason > > Ok so you were right on that one. Would you like to predict a name for that > currently 'sheered' system well well well east of the QLD coast if it > develops ? Appears to be moving slowly WSW at the moment. > > EPI, YOLANDE, CLAUDIA or maybe a "non event" ? Yours is first guess. > > > Regards > Simon > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:43:16 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 08:43:55.0425 (UTC) FILETIME=[C7313110:01C19432] X-MDMail-Server: MDaemon v2.0 rU b1 32 X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jason Hey, why play it safe ? I'll have the first guess then and mine is Yolande. I think you are right, as I also think at this stage its effect on QLDs weather will be limited and if anything it will be more toward the central and south coast if anything at all. I have this theory about TCs in the eastern Pacific (regarding movement) but I will save that for another day. But keep the fun up and keep watching. Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 19:07:28 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Simon, I will keep up the cyclone tracking. But my predictions are only made solely to my self not the public if you understand my drift. In an other Email message I sent I was saying about ICQ. Its a form of chat program.... Do you have it at all? It can be downloaded at www.icq.com if your willing to use it that is. Its Just a quicker was of Talking to people insted of Email. Regards Jason º¿º ----- Original Message ----- From: "Simon Clarke" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 6:43 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE > Jason > > Hey, why play it safe ? > > I'll have the first guess then and mine is Yolande. I think you are right, > as I also think at this stage its effect on QLDs weather will be limited and > if anything it will be more toward the central and south coast if anything > at all. > > I have this theory about TCs in the eastern Pacific (regarding movement) but > I will save that for another day. > > But keep the fun up and keep watching. > > > Regards > Simon > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Thu, 03 Jan 2002 23:20:06 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 19:09 3/01/02 +1300, you wrote: > TV news reports upto 600mm rain has fallen on the South Islands West >Coast last couple of days. Intense Thunderstorms have deluged the region. >Oregraphic forcing has enhanced an unstable trough. ...and we got a thunderstorm just after midnight here in Christchurch. They were having that many over on the West Coast they threw one across over the Alps in the disturbed NW flow just for good measure. Could be more thunder activity here tomorrow and Saturday. Ive got my fingers crossed. JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm Soc. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.54.24.237] From: "Luke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 22:30:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 11:30:27.0593 (UTC) FILETIME=[0AFD0790:01C1944A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Jane and others Kevin (dad) saw the wall cloud from Geelong (Looking easterly) at around about 1500 hours, it had a definate "prong" on the northern edge, but again "no photo" but was very photogenic. From the Geelong side the wall cloud remained intacted for about 8 - 10 minutes and then lost shape. Talk later Luke Clifton Springs- ASWA Victoria ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 11:10 PM Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? > Evening all, > > Well, today we got hail, I videoed (blurry but there) a funnel over Port > Phillip Bay & thunder again today making it 2 out of 2 for 2002 in > Melbourne.....these are distant shots unfortunately & a bit hard to make > out - but there were 2 needles & one heck of a wall cloud!! > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon01.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon02.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon03.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon04.JPG > > this one shows it the best - but even that's not that good (hit F11 and > roll backwards from the computer to see it a bit better) > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon05.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon07.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon08.JPG > So I got a bit excited!! what do you expect to see when you wander up > the hill for lunch????? > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Unusual synoptic. Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 00:38:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 13:40:40.0828 (UTC) FILETIME=[3C0A13C0:01C1945C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
The synoptic set-up over southern Australia is on the change and is showing meridional tendencies,it seems at last that the long spell of mid lat westerlies is on the wain. regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 00:35:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 13:37:11.0658 (UTC) FILETIME=[BF5D44A0:01C1945B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all tropos. Checking Bernie at 00.33 Mel time its showing an impressive outflow shield but seems to be making landfall at this time no discernable eye. regards Clyve H. ----- Original Message ----- From: Carl Smith To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 3:10 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE > Hi All. > > Looks like we do not have to discuss it anymore, BERNIE it is! > > BoM TCA below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > >IDQP0005 > >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY > >Queensland Region > >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > > > >Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this > >warning. > > > > > >TOP PRIORITY > >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15 > >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane > >For 1355 EST on Thursday the 3rd of January 2002 > > > >A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between PORT > >ROPER in the Northern Territory and KARUMBA in Queensland. > > > >A Cyclone WATCH extends north from PORT ROPER to ALYANGULA in the Northern > >Territory and from KARUMBA to KOWANYAMA in Queensland. > > > >AT 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, CATEGORY 1 was centred > >in the > >Gulf of Carpentaria about 270 kilometres eastnortheast of PORT MCARTHUR > >and 230 > >kilometres north northwest of MORNINGTON ISLAND, near stationary. Cyclone > >BERNIE > >is slowly intensifying. > > > >GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on the > >coast > >between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA overnight. > > > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Roper-McArthur district > >and the > >Queensland Gulf country. > > > >Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, Category 1 at 2pm EST / 1:30 pm CST > >Central Pressure : 995 Hectopascals > >Location of Centre : within 60 kilometres of > > latitude 14.6 degrees south > > longitude 138.8 degrees east > > about 230 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Island > >Recent Movement : near stationary > >Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour. > > > >People between PORT ROPER and KARUMBA should consider what action they > >will need > >to take if the cyclone threat increases, and listen to the next Advice at > >5pm EST /4:30pm CST. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 00:47:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 13:49:03.0266 (UTC) FILETIME=[67840820:01C1945D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. I was on my way to work and driving over the Corio overpass at about 1400 and report two funnels to the BOM which at this time were about 30 to 40 klm east of Geelong over Port Phillip Bay. The wall cloud was showing rotation,I was unable to take any photographs due to being unable to get off the hwy due to roadwork's!, the video captures look very similar to what I saw from a westerly perspective. Congratulations regards Clyve H. PS It seems that at least three ASWA members saw this event. ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Aussie-wx Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 11:10 PM Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? > Evening all, > > Well, today we got hail, I videoed (blurry but there) a funnel over Port > Phillip Bay & thunder again today making it 2 out of 2 for 2002 in > Melbourne.....these are distant shots unfortunately & a bit hard to make > out - but there were 2 needles & one heck of a wall cloud!! > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon01.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon02.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon03.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon04.JPG > > this one shows it the best - but even that's not that good (hit F11 and > roll backwards from the computer to see it a bit better) > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon05.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon07.JPG > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon08.JPG > So I got a bit excited!! what do you expect to see when you wander up > the hill for lunch????? > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 00:59:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jan 2002 14:01:19.0516 (UTC) FILETIME=[1E5ADDC0:01C1945F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Luke. I was watching the interesting cold air storms yesterday from Leopold and most of them were intensifying as they moved to the east of Geelong, most were starting as small multicells to the southwest of the Geelong area.The large Multi cell that moved to be near Portarlington at around 1400hrs showed an appearance of what may have been a cold air supercell for about 30 minutes or so with and impressive wall cloud and flanking line ,tops to about 25-27.000ft,at this time the 500hpa was about -26c and -9 at 700hpa it was even close to freezing at 850hpa,it was interesting to note though that the 300hpa was just -39c and still showing warm advection above 29.000ft. This set up changed later in the day as the 300 hpa trough moved through dropping this level temp top -46c. best wishes Clyve Herbert. ----- Original Message ----- From: Luke To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 10:30 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? > Hey Jane and others > > Kevin (dad) saw the wall cloud from Geelong (Looking easterly) at around > about 1500 hours, it had a definate "prong" on the northern edge, but again > "no photo" but was very photogenic. From the Geelong side the wall cloud > remained intacted for about 8 - 10 minutes and then lost shape. > > Talk later > > Luke > Clifton Springs- ASWA Victoria > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: "Aussie-wx" > Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 11:10 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne funnel? > > > > Evening all, > > > > Well, today we got hail, I videoed (blurry but there) a funnel over Port > > Phillip Bay & thunder again today making it 2 out of 2 for 2002 in > > Melbourne.....these are distant shots unfortunately & a bit hard to make > > out - but there were 2 needles & one heck of a wall cloud!! > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon01.JPG > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon02.JPG > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon03.JPG > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon04.JPG > > > > this one shows it the best - but even that's not that good (hit F11 and > > roll backwards from the computer to see it a bit better) > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon05.JPG > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon07.JPG > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0102jon08.JPG > > So I got a bit excited!! what do you expect to see when you wander up > > the hill for lunch????? > > > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp2.ihug.co.nz: Host p176-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.176] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 06:41:21 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John, Yes, it looks promising for thunder in Otago and Canterbury today. When i was living in Otago I found a good predictor of storms was the seabreeze. In this type of synoptic pattern the seabreeze created the convergence to ensure storm development. Have a good day. Steven Auckland 7am Mod Rain temp 20C ----- Original Message ----- From: "John Gaul" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 11:20 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms > At 19:09 3/01/02 +1300, you wrote: > > TV news reports upto 600mm rain has fallen on the South Islands West > >Coast last couple of days. Intense Thunderstorms have deluged the region. > >Oregraphic forcing has enhanced an unstable trough. > > ...and we got a thunderstorm just after midnight here in Christchurch. > They were having that many over on the West Coast they threw one across > over the Alps in the disturbed NW flow just for good measure. > Could be more thunder activity here tomorrow and Saturday. Ive got my > fingers crossed. > > JohnGaul > NZ Thunderstorm Soc. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 04:26:37 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie now Cat 2 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. TC Bernie has continued to intensify and is now Cat 2 - see BoM TCA below. Carl. >IDQP0005 >BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY >Queensland Region >Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre > >Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should be used with this warning. > > >TOP PRIORITY >TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19 >Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane >For 0150 EST on Friday the 4th of January 2002 > >A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between PORT >ROPER in the Northern Territory and KOWANYAMA in Queensland. > >A Cyclone WATCH extends north from PORT ROPER to ALYANGULA in the Northern >Territory and from KOWANYAMA TO CAPE KEERWEER in Queensland. > >AT 2am EST / [1.30 am CST] TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, CATEGORY 2 was centred in >the Gulf of Carpentaria about 250 kilometres east of PORT MCARTHUR and 140 >kilometres north northwest of MORNINGTON ISLAND, moving slowly south. Cyclone >BERNIE is slowly intensifying. > >GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced in coastal >areas in the vicinity of Mornington Island and are expected to develop along >much of the coast between PORT ROPER and KOWANYAMA during Friday. > >HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Roper-McArthur district >and the >Queensland Gulf Country. > >Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE BERNIE, Category 2 at 2am EST / [1.30am CST] >Central Pressure : 985 hectopascals >Location of Centre : within 60 kilometres of > latitude 15.4 degrees south > longitude 138.9 degrees east > about 140 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Island >Recent Movement : slowly south >Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour. > >People between PORT ROPER and KOWANYAMA should complete preparations >quickly and >be prepared to shelter in a safe place. Boats and outside property should be >secured, and listen to the next Advice at >5am EST / [4.30am CST]. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: TKS... Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 10:06:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Phil.. thanks very much for that. Very interesting indeed.. I have forwarded this onto a number of my colleagues in BOM. Hopefully, this event might make some operational meteorologist more open to questioning common meteorological myths (like it never snow in Melbourne, TC never hit NSW - remember TC Donald, etc...) Regards, David >Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 21:40:20 +0800 >From: "Phil Smith" >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vamei? > >David, I'll pick up this one as brother Carl is probably quite busy at >the moment..... Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Mornington Island rainfall Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 10:37:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Mornington Island's 24 hour to 9am rainfall has come in at 335mm, not far short of its all-time record 24 hour fall of 377.2 in 70 years of obs. 154 of that fell between noon and 3pm yesterday. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Mailer: MIME-tools 5.411 (Entity 5.404) From: Rhett Blanch To: "aussie-weather at world . std . com" Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 11:29:40 +1100 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TKS... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes this is interesting. A trip to Singapore in December 2000 destroyed one of my other long held beliefs that you could not get a tornado from a thunderstorm so close to the equator - I was surprised to see an article on a tornado in the Straits Times one morning. I have reproduced the article at the link below: http://www.wilgatree.com/reports/20001211_singapore.htm Rhett Blanch > David Jones wrote: > > Phil.. thanks very much for that. Very interesting indeed.. I have > forwarded > this onto a number of my colleagues in BOM. > > Hopefully, this event might make some operational meteorologist more > open to > questioning common meteorological myths (like it never snow in > Melbourne, TC > never hit NSW - remember TC Donald, etc...) > > Regards, > > David > > > > >Date: Wed, 02 Jan 2002 21:40:20 +0800 > >From: "Phil Smith" > >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Vamei? > > > >David, I'll pick up this one as brother Carl is probably quite busy > at > >the moment..... > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > -+ > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- Rhett Blanch ___________________________________________ 24/7: rhettaj at optusnet.com.au Work: rhett_blanch at pinpnt.com.au ---------------------------------------------------- The address rhettaj at ozemail.com.au and rhett_blanch at mail.com will cease functioning in September 2001, if you are currently using these please use the above alternative addresses. ___________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [202.137.90.3] From: "Leslie Baxter" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victoria!! Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 02:00:32 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 02:00:32.0470 (UTC) FILETIME=[97851760:01C194C3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yeah and a happy new year to all on the list, my new year was great, drunk most of the time but there was some terrific weather down the coast near Torquay, we had days of cold cbs and some of these well became more than just cold Cbs with some nice CGs and deep rumbles, it was awesome unfortuanatally the digi cam was full of New Years Pic of my friends, doh! Cheers Les Baxter Ballarat Weather >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "Aus Wx" >Subject: aus-wx: Victoria!! >Date: Wed, 2 Jan 2002 15:10:33 +1100 > >Afternoon all, > >Hail, thunder, amazingly grunty Cb's & possible funnels (I'll check the >video tonight)...and it's been snowing at Mt Hotham - if you're in >Victoria, >keep your eyes open - you ight see something exciting this afternoon!! > >Jane > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [155.144.17.252] From: "Simon" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 13:33:33 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 02:33:34.0181 (UTC) FILETIME=[34B63150:01C194C8] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

So I guess that would make tomorrow the beginning of an Australian "Weekend at Bernie's"?

Bad joke? OK, thought so.

- Simon



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X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 13:41:12 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 02:41:13.0189 (UTC) FILETIME=[464D4150:01C194C9] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Don't run yourself down Simon - I like it!

>From: "Simon"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE
>Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 13:33:33 +1100
>


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From aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Thu, 03 Jan 2002 18:38:11 -0800 Received: from [192.74.137.10] by hotmail.com (3.2) with ESMTP id MHotMailBDFE6066004740043123C04A890A07550; Thu, 03 Jan 2002 18:37:36 -0800 Received: (from daemon at localhost) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) id VAA02739 for aussie-weather-outgoing; Thu, 3 Jan 2002 21:36:29 -0500 (EST) Received: from TheWorld.com (pcls2.std.com [199.172.62.104]) by europe.std.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id VAA00516 for ; Thu, 3 Jan 2002 21:33:44 -0500 (EST) Received: from hotmail.com (f261.law8.hotmail.com [216.33.240.136]) by TheWorld.com (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id VAA21667 for ; Thu, 3 Jan 2002 21:33:43 -0500 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:33:34 -0800 Received: from 155.144.17.252 by lw8fd.law8.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Fri, 04 Jan 2002 02:33:33 GMT X-Originating-IP: [155.144.17.252] From: "Simon" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC for Gulf - NAMED BERNIE Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 13:33:33 +1100 Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 02:33:34.0181 (UTC) FILETIME=[34B63150:01C194C8] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Precedence: list Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

So I guess that would make tomorrow the beginning of an Australian "Weekend at Bernie's"?

Bad joke? OK, thought so.

- Simon



Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: Click Here
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From: "Adam Mayo" To: "Australian Severe Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Blue Mountains Weather Page Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 14:32:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
    Hi All,
 
I was just exploring through the Rural Fire Service pages when I came upon this page of Blue Mountains weather.  It quite a comprehensive page showing every detail of the days weather.   For all of you who may be interested and don't already know about it here is the URL.
 
 
Judy Mayo
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz (Unverified) X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 16:49:14 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 19:09 3/01/02 +1300, you wrote: > TV news reports upto 600mm rain has fallen on the South Islands West >Coast last couple of days. Intense Thunderstorms have deluged the region. The automatic weather station at Hokitika recorded 336 lightning hits in the 2hrs from 10pm to midnight Wednesday night. No wonder we got the 'over-throw'! This weather event reminds me of early January 1994 with a similar scenario. JohnGaul NZ Thunserstorm Soc +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew Godsman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 15:42:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John, Quite a surprise you say this reminds you of Jan 1994, as we also battling one of the worst outbreaks of fires in NSW early in Jan as well. Probably goes to show that the weather systems nehind the fires and your storms are the same. Cheers Andrew Godsman > The automatic weather station at Hokitika recorded 336 lightning hits in > the 2hrs from 10pm to midnight Wednesday night. No wonder we got the > 'over-throw'! > This weather event reminds me of early January 1994 with a similar scenario. > > JohnGaul > NZ Thunserstorm Soc +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone for Qld? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 16:22:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
No doubt all TC lovers are keeping an eye on this:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 04/0013 UTC 2002.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [1000 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 167.7E AT
032300 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
ENHANCED GMSVIS AND IR IMAGERY.
 
DEPRESSION LIES UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA SOUTHWEST OF A 250 HPA
OUTFLOW CENTRE. LLCC IS STILL OBSCURRED BY DENSE MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD AND IS PLACED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. SST
AROUND THE SYSTEM IS 29C. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
BUT SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 500 HPA RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION IN A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION. 05F MIGHT SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY BRACKNELL AND NOGAPS MODELS. BOTH MODELS ARE
DRIFTING IT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST QUICKSCAT DATA SHOWS NO
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION.  

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
   
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA. 
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 19:04:35 +1300 From: Gregg Ward User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:0.9.7) Gecko/20011221 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just saw on TV3 that there had been another thunderstorm in Christchurch, which flooded some inner city shops. I wonder if John Gaul can give us an update. Gregg Ward Palmerston North New Zealand +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host 203-173-215-1.ihug.net [203.173.215.1] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: Struck by lightning twice Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 19:05:58 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
A German tourist is badly hurt in Hospital after being hit by lightning, not once but twice near Queenstown yesterday.
 
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host 203-173-215-49.ihug.net [203.173.215.49] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 20:05:03 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Gregg, I watch TV1 so missed that story. Satellite shows cb developed over the Eastern Suburbs/Banks peninsula. There was a much bigger storm to the South near Oamaru with hail. Over the North island we are stuck in an onshore westerly so apart from the odd squally shower, nothing of interest. Cheers Steven Williams ---- Original Message ----- From: "Gregg Ward" To: Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 7:04 PM Subject: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch > Just saw on TV3 that there had been another thunderstorm in > Christchurch, which flooded some inner city shops. I wonder if John > Gaul can give us an update. > > > Gregg Ward > Palmerston North > New Zealand > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 17:31:16 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf...
Take a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them..
The satellite pics seem to be over land but the radar don't ????????????
can any one help me answer this one?
Jason
º¿º
From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Record heat on Willis Island Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 18:26:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com According to my records, Willis Island Met Office, in the Coral Sea 450km NE of Townsville, had its hottest day on record yesterday. The reported maximum was 35.1. The previous all-time high was 34.8 in 63 years of weather observation on the island. The half-hourly reports below would suggest it was valid, possibly occurring at the end of the substantial rise between 1000 and 1130. An area of warm air in the northerlies being dragged down the eastern side of TC Bernie would seem to be the culprit -- in fact an unusually large number of locations had 28 or 29 degree minima yesterday morning in the abnormal windflow: 29.0 COCONUT ISLAND N Peninsula QLD 28.0 HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT Central Coast E QLD 28.0 ALVA BEACH Central Coast E QLD 28.0 RUNDLE ISLAND Wide Bay/Burnett QLD 28.0 HERVEY BAY AIRPORT Brisbane/SE Coast QLD 28.0 WILLIS ISLAND Islands Because of its tropical location well away from the continent, Willis Island experiences very small departures from normal, with the record maximum in every month only 4 to 5 degrees above the average for that month. The mean maximum in January is 30.7. It will be interesting to see what this does to water temperatures across the Coral Sea. Meanwhile, Yongala, a notorious cold hole in South Australia in winter, recorded its lowest December minimum yesterday with 2.6 beating the previous 2.7 in 44 years of computerised records. Laurier ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- Page No. 1 METARs for islands district 200 for Thursday 3 January 2002 UTC prepared 10:23 04/01/02 04/01/02 TIME DATE TIME WIND TEMP DEW BARO |RAIN ----- ----- ----- --- |VIS WEATHER CLOUD --- --------- --------- --------- utc local locl DIR/SPD GST POINT METER |since past past since | *= Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 (km/h) (qnh) |09.00 10 hour last obs | auto | mins mm min | ** 200283 Islands WILLIS ISLAND 0000 20020103 1000 320/ 16 20 29.9 25.5 1008.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0030 20020103 1030 340/ 14 18 31.1 23.9 1008.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0100 20020103 1100 340/ 13 16 32.5 23.6 1008.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0130 20020103 1130 340/ 11 14 33.9 24.4 1008.3 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0200 20020103 1200 350/ 13 16 32.4 24.8 1007.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0230 20020103 1230 340/ 11 16 33.3 24.8 1007.6 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0300 20020103 1300 330/ 11 13 32.5 24.7 1007.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0330 20020103 1330 350/ 11 14 32.9 25.3 1007.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0400 20020103 1400 320/ 11 14 33.2 24.4 1006.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0430 20020103 1430 350/ 14 24 32.6 25.3 1006.4 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0500 20020103 1500 340/ 9 13 32.3 25.0 1006.3 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0530 20020103 1530 360/ 14 16 33.3 25.0 1006.1 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0600 20020103 1600 360/ 16 20 32.9 25.3 1006.0 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0630 20020103 1630 350/ 14 18 32.5 24.9 1006.1 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0700 20020103 1700 340/ 13 16 32.1 24.8 1006.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0730 20020103 1730 340/ 14 16 31.4 24.3 1006.7 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0800 20020103 1800 340/ 14 18 30.7 25.3 1006.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0830 20020103 1830 350/ 14 16 30.0 24.7 1007.2 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | 0900 20020103 1900 360/ 16 20 29.7 24.5 1007.5 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30 | +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 18:47:00 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id CAA27194 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The system has become heavily sheared. It will more than likely weaken quickly as it approaches land. Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.theweather.com.au -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of The Weather Man Sent: Friday, 4 January 2002 6:31 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf... Take a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them.. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD-sat-latest.JPG http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD_Lightning.jpg The satellite pics seem to be over land but the radar don't ???????????? can any one help me answer this one? Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 17:53:40 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The visible cloud pic probably tells the story. http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00006.latest.shtml John. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of The Weather Man Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 5:31 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf... Take a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them.. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD-sat-latest.JPG http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD_Lightning.jpg The satellite pics seem to be over land but the radar don't ???????????? can any one help me answer this one? Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 18:59:16 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I'll have a guess and say the "eye" is over land and there's nothing in the "eye". Rainfall is on the "outside" of the eye, hence not essentially on land.
I'll stand corrected. Just my interpretation.
Bussie (NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 7:31 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC

Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf...
Take a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them..
The satellite pics seem to be over land but the radar don't ????????????
can any one help me answer this one?
Jason
º¿º
From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 18:08:11 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes But it still dosent explian why every satellite picture I look at, displays (TC BERNIE) over LAND. but the radar picture are still showing (TC BERNIE) over Mornington Island?????? I don't understand it. Jason ----- Original Message ----- From: "Mark Hardy" To: Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 5:47 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC > The system has become heavily sheared. It will more than likely weaken > quickly as it approaches land. > > > Mark Hardy > The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. > http://www.theweather.com.au > > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of The Weather > Man > Sent: Friday, 4 January 2002 6:31 PM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC > > > Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the > satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf... > Take a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them.. > http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD-sat-latest.JPG > http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD_Lightning.jpg > The satellite pics seem to be over land but the radar don't ???????????? > can any one help me answer this one? > Jason > º¿º > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 18:22:33 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Its ok every one, I found an Image that explains it all. http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc02/SHEM/09P.BERNIE/ ssmi/vis1km/20020104.0531.gms-5.vis.x.09PBERNIE.45kts-991mb.jpg Take a look Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 19:02:31 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 09:03:15.0615 (UTC) FILETIME=[A521E2F0:01C194FE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi
 
Nothing appears to be wrong here. The important thing to remember is the effect of wind shear which is dislocating the cloud mass to the south west of the centre. In fact the centre of the cyclone may be quite separate from the dense swirling cloud overcast.
 
This is also a problem currently with the tropical low well out in the Coral Sea at the moment.
 
Regards
Simon
From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record heat on Willis Island Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 19:09:30 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 09:10:14.0050 (UTC) FILETIME=[9E8A0020:01C194FF] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Laurier, Wow. And who says weather is ever boring ???? Definitely not me Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cyclone for Qld? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 19:06:42 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 Jan 2002 09:07:25.0585 (UTC) FILETIME=[3A204810:01C194FF] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Keith
 
Apart from Bernie, this low out in the far eastern Coral Sea does look interesting.
 
The models seem to be bringing this disturbance to the mid Coral Sea in the next couple of days.
 
But I suspect that a turn toward the SSE will then follow.
 
Who knows ? Its worth keeping an eye on. Its in the right spot to threaten the central to south QLD coast.
 
 
 
Regards
Simon
From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 19:16:59 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes thanks Simon.
Just the Infa-Red images arn't displaying the LLC. Thats the reason I didn't pick it up. But with the Visible Image all was revelled.
Take a look at the 1 Km Satellite image. It shows the out flow from The TC.
Regards
Jason
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 7:02 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC

Hi
 
Nothing appears to be wrong here. The important thing to remember is the effect of wind shear which is dislocating the cloud mass to the south west of the centre. In fact the centre of the cyclone may be quite separate from the dense swirling cloud overcast.
 
This is also a problem currently with the tropical low well out in the Coral Sea at the moment.
 
Regards
Simon
Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 22:38:25 +1300 From: Jeff Northcott X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (X11; U; Linux 2.4.2-2 i686) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Steve and Greg, I missed the TV coverage but between 16:50 and 17:20 I recorded 16mm of rain, and a temperature drop of about 10 degrees. There was some hail mostly at the beginning of the rain but it melted quickly. Heaviest rain I've seen for some years in Christchurch. The lightning and thunder were not as spectacular as the rainfall. It didn't show up as much on the metservice radar. My garage wasn't flooded as I suspected it might be but I found a leak in the roof! Cheers, Jeff Christchurch New Zealand Steven Williams wrote: > > Hi Gregg, > I watch TV1 so missed that story. Satellite shows cb developed over the > Eastern Suburbs/Banks peninsula. > There was a much bigger storm to the South near Oamaru with hail. > Over the North island we are stuck in an onshore westerly so apart from the > odd squally shower, nothing > of interest. > Cheers > Steven Williams > ---- Original Message ----- > From: "Gregg Ward" > To: > Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 7:04 PM > Subject: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch > > > Just saw on TV3 that there had been another thunderstorm in > > Christchurch, which flooded some inner city shops. I wonder if John > > Gaul can give us an update. > > > > > > Gregg Ward > > Palmerston North > > New Zealand > > > > -- Homepage: http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/jeffn +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 21:19:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Ok, I'm confused...according to this text forecast, the TC is to cross the coast at 5am tomroow (Saturday morning AEDST) - is this right?? especially when you look at any satpic you care to find.....it appears that Bernie is definitely well over land & should now be chased on horseback... I know that they use a combination of information to determine the location of the centre, but for the life of me I can't make head or tail of it atm......... http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home go to Bernie in the left hand frame for the infrared image https://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/show.pl?sat+aust+wv+auwv20020040831.jpg Hit yes if a security warning comes up - the site is safe but the certificate has expired - water vapour 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 139.0E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 040530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT (52627) OF 32 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 040500Z9. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS (NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND 041800Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.// Help!!! Can someone please point me in the right direction here...... -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Shane Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: Hi Weather Watchers Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 20:37:19 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi to all,
             I have been an avid weather watcher for more than 15 yrs and been in some extreme weather events.  I live in S.E Queensland On the Gold Coast.  I started becoming interested in weather ever since my experience with the Brisbane Hail Storm which passed through.  I was living in West End at that time in 1985 and have good memories of that disaster. 
 
    I have lived in a few towns up and down the Queensland coast and the most memorable event was Cyclone Winnifred in January 1986, Cyclone Fran in Mar 1992 and the latest in March right here on the Gold Coast with that low. 
 
    I hope to say hi to all on the aus - wx list ive been on the list for the last 6 months and its a great list to be on.
 
Regards Shane.
From: "Gregg Ward" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 23:51:55 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jeff, Can you see anything of the bigger storm system further south that Steve described. BTW, I was impressed with the page describing your Weather Station setup, off of your home page. Regards Gregg ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jeff Northcott" To: Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 10:38 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch > Hi Steve and Greg, > > I missed the TV coverage but between 16:50 and 17:20 I recorded 16mm of > rain, and a temperature drop of about 10 degrees. There was some hail > mostly at the beginning of the rain but it melted quickly. Heaviest rain > I've seen for some years in Christchurch. The lightning and thunder were > not as spectacular as the rainfall. > It didn't show up as much on the metservice radar. > > My garage wasn't flooded as I suspected it might be but I found a leak > in the roof! > > Cheers, > > Jeff > Christchurch > New Zealand > > Steven Williams wrote: > > > > Hi Gregg, > > I watch TV1 so missed that story. Satellite shows cb developed over the > > Eastern Suburbs/Banks peninsula. > > There was a much bigger storm to the South near Oamaru with hail. > > Over the North island we are stuck in an onshore westerly so apart from the > > odd squally shower, nothing > > of interest. > > Cheers > > Steven Williams > > ---- Original Message ----- > > From: "Gregg Ward" > > To: > > Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 7:04 PM > > Subject: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch > > > > > Just saw on TV3 that there had been another thunderstorm in > > > Christchurch, which flooded some inner city shops. I wonder if John > > > Gaul can give us an update. > > > > > > > > > Gregg Ward > > > Palmerston North > > > New Zealand > > > > > > > > -- > Homepage: http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/jeffn > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Maria Weinber" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 21:59:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-Info: DCSI - We do Internet. X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS perl-11 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com no ideas at all ----- Original Message ----- From: "Nathan Smith" To: Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:58 PM Subject: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? > i heard there being something about a cyclone off cairns > > i looked at the satellite picture and there was nothing really there > > any ideas? > > nate > > _________________________________________________________________ > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Maria Weinber" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 22:00:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 X-Info: DCSI - We do Internet. X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS perl-11 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
thankyou for the information
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: NZ west coast storms

TV news reports upto 600mm rain has fallen on the South Islands West Coast last couple of days. Intense
Thunderstorms have deluged the region. Oregraphic forcing has enhanced an unstable trough.
 
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2002 00:04:48 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A thunderstorm passed over ChCh city from 5pm today. It came in from the west but then it developed over the city and moved out to the East I recorded 12.3 mm from the storm. No hail recorded here but very close to it. Some lightning was close as cannon sounding thunder shook the house. Mostly CC or sheet lightning. I don't know of any ground strokes. This followed another thunderstorm to the east of the city and around the north tip of BP earlier in the afternoon. Tommorrow looks like another day of thunder activity when the colder southerly surge comes in. I'm off thunder chasing with better video results hopefully than today ! JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm Soc. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 21:19:43 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, all Nate I think you might be thinking about the low of the coast. Its a fare way out now, but is expected to move towards the coast and intensify. So it might be worth keeping an eye out for it. Jason º¿º From: "Maria Weinber" To: Sent: Friday, January 04, 2002 8:59 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? > no ideas at all > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Nathan Smith" > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:58 PM > Subject: aus-wx: cairns cyclone? > > > > i heard there being something about a cyclone off cairns > > > > i looked at the satellite picture and there was nothing really there > > > > any ideas? > > > > nate > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 04 Jan 2002 21:35:08 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, The clue is in the quotation you have included: "THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST > OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER." The position of the centre of the cyclone is based on the low-level wind circulation centre, not on the convection. On the satpic you can see the convection clearly overland. As it is sheared Southwest, the TC centre is therefore northeast from where we can see the convection, so it is still out over the water somewhere near Mornington Island. These fellows use supercomputers to animate much higher quality satpics than they let us look at and it becomes easy to see the fine wisps on the surface rotating around the LLCC. I have watched it on the Cray when I have been visiting at HKO. It's really fascinating stuff. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Date: Fri, 4 Jan 2002 21:19:12 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie > Ok, I'm confused...according to this text forecast, the TC is to cross > the coast at 5am tomroow (Saturday morning AEDST) - is this right?? > especially when you look at any satpic you care to find.....it appears > that Bernie is definitely well over land & should now be chased on > horseback... I know that they use a combination of information to > determine the location of the centre, but for the life of me I can't > make head or tail of it atm......... > > http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home > go to Bernie in the left hand frame for the infrared image > > https://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/show.pl?sat+aust+wv+auwv20020040831.jpg > Hit yes if a security warning comes up - the site is safe but the > certificate has expired - water vapour > > 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 139.0E3. > TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM > NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT > 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON > 040530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND > AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE > CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT > (52627) OF 32 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 040500Z9. ANIMATED SATELLITE > IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST > OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE > EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH- > SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS > (NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 > MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND > SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO > DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND > 041800Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET. > NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.// > > > Help!!! Can someone please point me in the right direction here...... > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 00:38:45 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id JAA05183 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jason and All. > Does any one seem to notice any thing different when looking at the >satellite pics and then the radar pics of the cyclone in the gulf... Take >a look and see if any one can notice any thing wrong with them.. >http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD-sat-latest.JPG >http://www.weatherzone.com.au/latest/QLD_Lightning.jpg The satellite pics >seem to be over land but the radar don't ???????????? can any one help me >answer this one? Jason º¿º See the image at http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.09P+05F.20020104.0231.jpg which reveals the story this afternoon. You will find it is actually 4 images, a multispectral colour composite along with the VIS, IR, and WV greyscale images it was made with. If you look at the colour image you will see the Low Level Circulation Centre [LLCC] as a brownish circulation with a hint of an eye to the north of Mornington Island. The VIS image to the right of the colour one shows the LLCC even more clearly. If you look at the IR and WV images below you will see that the LLCC is not clearly visible at those wavelengths. This is because the system is sheared, with the colder cloud tops more clearly visible at IR and WV wavelengths offset to the SW of the LLCC giving the illusion that TC Bernie was overland. This frequently happens with cyclones, which is why it is often a good idea to view visible wavelength images where available if you are trying to locate where the surface centre of a cyclone is. Sheared cyclones have difficulty maintaining intensity, and you will notice from the BoM warnings that it had been weakened to Cat 1 by the time it made landfall at about 11pm. This is also happening to TD 05F to the north of Vanuatu, which has no distinct LLCC at this time due to the shear and has little prospect of strengthening significantly in the short term, although this could change if it continues to move SW into the Coral Sea towards Qld over the next few days. With the high sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea conditions are favourable for TD 05F to intensify into a significant cyclone if the shearing decreases. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2002 07:38:17 +1300 From: Jeff Northcott X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (X11; U; Linux 2.4.2-2 i686) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Greg, No more storms after this one that cleared after around 6pm. the 3:13pm image at http://satellite.landcare.cri.nz/noaa/ shows what is probably the storm just south of lake Elllesmere. 45km/h southerlies were predicted for the evening but they didn't last for long. A squally southerly change is predicted for this afternoon with possible thunder storms. It's nearly like living in the King Country again! Thanks for your comments on my weather station. Really should get the barometer and sunshine sensors finished but it does most of what I want at the moment. Cheers, Jeff Gregg Ward wrote: > > Jeff, > > Can you see anything of the bigger storm system further south that Steve > described. > > BTW, I was impressed with the page describing your Weather Station setup, > off of your home page. > > Regards > > Gregg > -- Homepage: http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/jeffn +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "evelyn&wayne" To: "weather" Subject: aus-wx: storms at last Date: Mon, 25 Feb 1980 09:27:04 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
Its finally happened. After three weeks  of the weather bureau forecasting the chance/slight risk of a shower or thunder storm, the skies finally opened up out here at Kelso in Townsville this morning. The storm come in about 4.00am this morning, the lightning flashing and the thunder cracking, We got 20ml of rain out here and hopefully more on the way. At last we've had some rain inTownsville.
 
Regards
Ev
X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2002 13:58:18 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: aus-wx: Another Christchurch Thunderstorm Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Another brief thunderstorm passed over ChCh late this morning. Bits of hail on the initial downpour of the storm. Lightning slow to get started but when it did it was all CC/sheet lightning from I saw.Now moved away to the Ne JohnGaul NZTS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 13:58:05 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Jan 2002 03:58:09.0844 (UTC) FILETIME=[3074A740:01C1959D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jason
 
A really cool shot ! Explains everything.
 
Keep us posted on that Coral sea low.
 
Regards
Simon
From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 18:40:41 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Ok, sure thing Simon.

Just a quick update on the low in the coral sea. The one recently located at 11.5S7
168.1E6, EAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS HAS DISSIPATED and another low has formed near: 13.0S4
164.0E1. After I had a quick look at some satellite images It seems like its current wind is estimated to be 25 - 30knts.

Recent Infa-Red images are also showing a improved gathering of clould mass Over the last 4 - 5 hours.

So I will keep an eye out for it in the new few days.

Regards

Jason

º¿º


----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 1:58 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Strange RADAR and Satellite Pictures of TC

Jason
 
A really cool shot ! Explains everything.
 
Keep us posted on that Coral sea low.
 
Regards
Simon
From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: New Sydney Realtime Weather Page beta test Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 19:47:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A while back, Jane strongly suggested someone develop pages which, at a single click, put all the relevant images and data for a specific area on your screen. I think that such pages exist already for Brisbane and Newcastle, and possibly Melbourne. I rashly said at the time that I had plans to do such pages for the whole country. The first draft prototype us now up on Australian Weather News at http://www.australianweathernews.com/ -- follow the Test Sydney Weather Briefing link on the right. It is not yet anywhere near complete, but I think it will benefit from being out and available to generate feedback from users before I start producing clones to cover every forecast district in Oz. The main elements still missing are: Data -- I will be formatting Bureau data from my own sources for each district, probably showing the past 6 hours from each AWS, the latest synoptic reports, and the past month's max and min temps and rainfall. Expect this to take a while.... State, National and WxHeads sections -- basically summaries of state and national graphics and links of use, and a selection of useful but more technical links, like the local Skew-T. Please let me know what you think of this so that I can get as many improvements as possible into the template before I start duplicating it! Cheers Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 21:34:45 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 05 Jan 2002 10:36:45.0617 (UTC) FILETIME=[DF5E0210:01C195D4] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all tropos,
The longer I look at sat pics of the evolution of Bernie the more I suspect that this system may have been a complex of more than one centre, Bernie was always rather hard to pin point especially in its early stages, I strongly suspect that a primary centre crossed the coast at around midday on Friday QLD time well to the west of Mornington island, with a secondary centre to the north of Mornington island, although there is a good argument for shear removing the mid and upper portions to explain this activity I am not aware of this happening too often prior to the affect of the upper mid lat westerlies which are seen further to poleward. regards Clyve Herbert.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: 96P Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 23:30:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, 96P east of Honiara is now up on the NRL Monterey page as being worth watching http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p756-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.248] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sat, 05 Jan 2002 23:32:31 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: I am back Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Happy New Year to all. I am back. Despite my absence, I have enjoyed this season's severe storm outbreaks and taken any opportunities that I had to chase, as anyone would expect. Excellent stuff. Let's hope the weather can help out the firefighters. Cheers. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 01:04:47 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Clyve,
 
The approximate amount of "shear" required to explain the vis satpic was in the order of 200kms..., which would surely be unlikely.
 
Regards,
John W. 
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Clyve Herbert
Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 8:35 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?.

Hi all tropos,
The longer I look at sat pics of the evolution of Bernie the more I suspect that this system may have been a complex of more than one centre, Bernie was always rather hard to pin point especially in its early stages, I strongly suspect that a primary centre crossed the coast at around midday on Friday QLD time well to the west of Mornington island, with a secondary centre to the north of Mornington island, although there is a good argument for shear removing the mid and upper portions to explain this activity I am not aware of this happening too often prior to the affect of the upper mid lat westerlies which are seen further to poleward. regards Clyve Herbert.
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 02:34:32 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Clyve and All. Having looked at the 3 day animation I have uploaded at at http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.trop.satpicloop.gif several more times, you could be right about double centres, as there certainly seems to be more going on than a simple sheared cyclone. Looking at todays satpics, there may actually be more than 2 centres as the system is degenerating, otherwise the cloud patterns are quite hard to explain. Regards, Carl. > Hi Clyve, The approximate amount of "shear" required to >explain the vis satpic was in the order of 200kms..., which would surely >be unlikely. Regards, John W. > > -----Original Message----- >From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Clyve Herbert >Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 8:35 PM >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. > > Hi all tropos, The longer I look at sat pics of the evolution of >Bernie the more I suspect that this system may have been a complex of more >than one centre, Bernie was always rather hard to pin point especially in >its early stages, I strongly suspect that a primary centre crossed the >coast at around midday on Friday QLD time well to the west of >Mornington island, with a secondary centre to the north of Mornington >island, although there is a good argument for shear removing the mid >and upper portions to explain this activity I am not aware of this >happening too often prior to the affect of the upper mid lat westerlies >which are seen further to poleward. regards Clyve Herbert. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 11:20:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2002 11:40:42 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com This is a hoax: http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/sulfnbk.exe.warning.html -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Tina Jones" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT is a hoax, don't do it Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 12:41:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HAng on folks, don't do it this is a hoax!!!  Been around for ages.
 
The sufflk.exe file lets you use long names in windows programmes, instead of the old fashioned only 8 charachters.
 
If you don't believe me type the file name into a search engine and see what you find, or try the Microsoft site.  It is a pain to reinstall the file if you deleted it.
 
Nortons & McAfee don't pick it up, coz it's not a virus, it's a perfectly normal operating file.
 
DON"T be sucked in by this inocently spread hoax!
Tina :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 11:49:59 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, My sources tell me that the file "sulfnbk.exe" is actually part of Windows. Can someone please confirm this? Rosalina +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: bigwig.prod.sugars: ben owned process doing -bs Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 20:54:52 -0500 (EST) From: Benjamin Sugars X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Sun, 6 Jan 2002, macdonald wrote: > Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating: This is actually a hoax. See: http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/sulfnbk.exe.warning.html > When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and > successfully deleted it. Ooops. You've just damaged your OS. Cheers, -Ben -- Benjamin Sugars +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "wendy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 12:48:04 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
A hoax??  Great :( 
Anyone got any help on to reinstall now?
 
Thanks
Wendie
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
From: "Ashton H Anderson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 12:46:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
If you run that supposed virus through a reputable search engine you will be taken to Symantec and others reporting it as a hoax..................
I mean treat it how you like but it is worth reading the available material before pushing the panic button...................
 
Ashton
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
From: "Tina Jones" To: Subject: aus-wx: Hoax warning - full details from the Microsoft Web Site Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 12:52:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
As you can see below, even hoaxes can be damaging.  A bit like the joke about the Irish Virus, "we don't have any programming experience, so can you forward this to all your friends and then delete your own hard drive".
 
Here is the MS website with the repair if you did delete it  http://support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=kb;EN-US;q301316  and here is the Symantec site with info about the hoax http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/sulfnbk.exe.warning.html
 
With a summary from Symantec 

SULFNBK.EXE Warning

Reported on: April 17, 2001
Last Updated on: December 26, 2001 at 10:45:22 AM PST

Printer-friendly versionPrinter-friendly version Tell a Friend
Symantec Security Response encourages you to ignore any messages regarding this hoax. It is harmless and is intended only to cause unwarranted concern.

Type: Hoax

Description:

The following hoax email was first reported in Brazil, and the original email was in Portuguese. Other language versions are in circulation. Currently, the English language versions are most common.


CAUTIONS:

  • This particular email message is a hoax. The file that is mentioned in the hoax, however, Sulfnbk.exe, is a Microsoft Windows 95/98/Me utility that is used to restore long file names, and like any .exe file, it can be infected by a virus that targets .exe files.

    NOTE: The Sulfnbk.exe file is not required to run Windows. It may be necessary if you need to restore long file names if the file names become corrupted. For additional information, read the Microsoft Knowledge Base article Description of Sulfnbk.exe and How to Replace the Program File (Q301316)
  • The virus/worm W32.Magistr.24876 at mm can arrive as an attachment named Sulfnbk.exe. The Sulfnbk.exe file used by Windows is located by default in the C:\Windows\Command folder.

    NOTE: The C:\Windows\Command folder is the usual default location for this file. It is possible that if you have a custom installation, or a special configuration that was installed by the computer manufacturer, the file could be in a different location.

    If the file is located in any other folder (except as noted), or arrives as an attachment to a email message, then it is possible that the file is infected. In this case, if a scan with the latest virus definitions and with NAV set to scan all files does not detect the file as being infected, quarantine and submit the file to SARC for analysis by following the instructions in the document How to submit a file to SARC using Scan and Deliver.

  • If you have deleted the Sulfnbk.exe file from the C:\Windows\Command folder and want to know how to restore the file, see the How to restore the Sulfnbk.exe file section at the end of this document.
Tina :-)
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
Embedded Content: button_kb_printerfriendly.gif: 00000001,00000001,00000000,6f39bb96 From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 11:54:56 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Dear Anthony, Thank u :-) Rosalina ----- Original Message ----- From: Anthony Cornelius To: Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:40 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT > This is a hoax: > > http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/sulfnbk.exe.warning. html > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 13:08:32 +1100 From: Paul Mirtschin X-Mailer: The Bat! (v1.53d) To: wendy Subject: Re[2]: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jan 2002 02:08:32.0837 (UTC) FILETIME=[0AAAC750:01C19657] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com wendy Says: > A hoax?? Great :( > Anyone got any help on to reinstall now? 1. Always think, research and think again before believing ANYTHING in an email... Especially one asking you to delete files. 2. Ask for a copy of sulfnbk.exe to be emailed to you from a trusted person. (if it's still in your recycle bin, hit restore, then go to step 5) 3. Install the copy of an anti-virus program you never got around to installing. 4. Scan the file emailed to you (trust doesn't mean they aren't stupid) 5. Print step 1 out and stick it above your computer. 6. Copy the scanned file back in. 7. Pretend that every email you get telling you about a "new virus" is an email asking for a lend of $1000. 8. Can I borrow $1000? -------------------------------------- Paul Mirtschin - Ph 0414 658 174 Designer - Writer paul at nothingdesign.com.au www.nothingdesign.com.au Blah, blah, blah. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ashton H Anderson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 7 Jan 2001 13:24:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4807.1700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Being relatively new to the list I am not familiar with the initial poster "macdonald" signed Sam........................I would assume he is know to the list?
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 11:20 AM
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 12:56:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This hoax has been around for a while now.
 
The file is a normal windows file. Deleting the file may cause problems with long file names,
 
Naturally however if you receive an E Mail with this file as an attachment be very concerned as probably is a virus.
 
Michael
 
----- Original Message -----
From: macdonald
Sent: Sunday, 6 January 2002 11:20
Subject: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT

Hi All
 
Guyra Agrus sent me an email stating:
A warning about a virus that is spread from address book to address book.
It is apparently undetectable by Norton and McAfee. It remains dormant for abut 14 days then
activates and wipes out the hard drive data.
When I checked my hard drive, I did find the virus and successfully deleted it.
 
I want to share this message in case you too, picked it up.

The directions for removing it are quite easy to follow.



> > > > > > >1. Go to 'start' - then to 'find or search' (depending on your computer)

> > > > > > >2. In the 'search for files or folders' type in sulfnbk.exe -- this is the virus.

> > > > > > >3. In the 'look in' make sure you're searching Drive C.

> > > > > > >4. Hit 'search' button (or find)

> > > > > > >5. If this file shows up (it's an ugly blackish icon that will have the name ('sulfnbk.exe') DO NOT OPEN IT!

> > > > > > >6. Right click on the file - go down to delete and left click.

> > > > > > >7. It will ask you if you want to send it to the recycle bin, say yes.

> > > > > > >8. Go to your desktop (where all your icons are) and double click on  the recycle bin.

> > > > > > >9. Right click on sulfnbk.exe and delete again - or empty the
bin.

 
If you find it, send this email to all in your address book,  because that's how it's transferred.
 
cheers
Sam
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: [disasternews] Australia fires rage To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 15:11:52 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 06/01/2002 03:11:53 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Some good reading here re fires. Dave Date: January 5, 2002 AUSTRALIA FIRES RAGE Weary firefighters continued Saturday to battle dozens of blazes raging around Sydney with fears that hotter temperatures and gusty winds predicted later in the weekend could have them facing an even greater inferno if some of the fires were to merge. Read the full story at: http://www.disasternews.net/news/news.php?articleid=1343 ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC for north Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 14:52:54 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Just a quick update on the low in the coral sea.
The BOM expecting it to develop into a cyclone by about mid week - next week, but it its not going to have any impact on the coast as it will be expected to move away from Australia waters.
Recent GMS -5 Images show a week low developing but currenty its not expected to develop untill later on in the week.
Any one instrsed in taking a look at the current low this is the best page to visit.
Regards
Jason
º¿º
 
 
From: "faerinelda" To: Subject: aus-wx: Question Re Current Weather observations Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 16:40:08 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
 
I have some questions regarding the weather conditions today!
 
at 4:15 Melb AP had 34.5C -2.1 dewpoint, 9 humidity with a 35K Northerly. and its pressure was 1002.7
 
My Questions Are:
    With its dewpoint & humidity (obviously dry) and the wind is this a fire danger?
    What does the pressure mean?
Because I still dont know how to see what weather is to come:
    What do you all predict for the rest of summer?
    What is the information indicating?
    Do you think we could have fires in Vic like the ones in NSW?
 
Thank you guys and Happy New Year!!
 
(: Catherine :)
From: "Laurier Williams" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 17:43:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com This was a strange cyclone. I've just discovered that Centre Island, about 250km west of Bernie's track, recorded its lowest January **minimum** temperature on record on Friday 4 January, then again broke that record in the early hours of Saturday with a temp of 19. From the story I've just written for Australian Weather News: One unusual feature of the cyclone was the cold temperature experienced in the southerly winds on its western side. Centre Island and Borroloola, both about 300km WNW of Mornington Island, reported temperatures around 20° for about 24 hours from early this morning. Centre Island's normal January temperature range is 26.8 to 33.7 and Borroloola's is 24.4 to 35.5, reflecting its location about 40km inland. The unusual result was for Centre Island to record its lowest January minimum temperature on record today, with a minimum of 20.1, then repeat the performance with a minimum of 19.0 for Saturday 5 January. The previous January low in 25 years of record was 21.0. Anyone (Carl?) care to speculate on any links between this and the cyclone's rather unusual behaviour. Laurier > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill > Sent: Friday, 04 January, 2002 9:19 PM > To: Aussie-wx > Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie > > > Ok, I'm confused...according to this text forecast, the TC is to cross > the coast at 5am tomroow (Saturday morning AEDST) - is this right?? > especially when you look at any satpic you care to find.....it appears > that Bernie is definitely well over land & should now be chased on > horseback... I know that they use a combination of information to > determine the location of the centre, but for the life of me I can't > make head or tail of it atm......... > > http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home > go to Bernie in the left hand frame for the infrared image > > https://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/show.pl?sat+aust+wv+auwv20020040831.jpg > Hit yes if a security warning comes up - the site is safe but the > certificate has expired - water vapour > > 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 139.0E3. > TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM > NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT > 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON > 040530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND > AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE > CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT > (52627) OF 32 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 040500Z9. ANIMATED SATELLITE > IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST > OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE > EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH- > SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS > (NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 > MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND > SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO > DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND > 041800Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET. > NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.// > > > Help!!! Can someone please point me in the right direction here...... > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.26.98.6] From: "Simon" To: Subject: aus-wx: Severe Squall Warning - VIC Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 20:38:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jan 2002 09:38:24.0530 (UTC) FILETIME=[E2F84720:01C19695] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I would have thought someone would have beaten me to this, and maybe they have, it's just that this list is slow but.... IDV26500 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST Top Priority Severe Squall Warning for the Melbourne metropolitan area, Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula, the Mornington Peninsula and for Port Phillip and Western Port. Issued at 5:27pm on Sunday the 6th of January 2002 A strong west to southwest wind change is expected to cross the Melbourne area betwee 6pm and 9pm. Wind squalls around 70km/hr are expected associated with the change. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.26.98.6] From: "Simon" To: Subject: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 20:43:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jan 2002 09:43:54.0357 (UTC) FILETIME=[A78FE250:01C19696] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
The lightning tracker on Weatherzone.com.au is showing some amazing lightning coverage of Australia at the moment.
I snarfled a quick copy for anyone who missed it.
You can view it at: http://www.tastyworm.com/temp/lightning.jpg for about the next 24 hours until I delete it - just in case you missed it.
 
Regards,
Simon
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Oberon/Bathurst Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sun, 6 Jan 2002 20:54:56 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 06/01/2002 08:54:56 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI all. Well it finally made it.. Nice rain and lightning show.. Mandy outages reported at Shooters Hill, Porters Retreat, Black Springs, Molong, Coonamble. Blayney, also some in Bathurst area. Many lines down, poles damaged, fires caused (only small though). Dave Bathurst. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 06 Jan 02 00:34:27 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Record heat on Willis Island Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Simon! 04 Jan 02 19:09, you wrote to All: SC> Wow. And who says weather is ever boring ???? Well, it's always been a good topic of converation in Melbourne! :-) Speaking of which, summer's arriving with a vengeance, with 37 expected on Sunday... Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: nzts.nz at pop3.caverock.net.nz X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.3 (32) Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2002 17:03:43 +1300 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: John Gaul Subject: aus-wx: Lightning Collapses Pavlova X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id FAA03104 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com With the recent bout of heavy lightning on the West Coast over the last week, here is a story from the Greymouth newspaper of lightning of another type JohnGaul NZ Thunderstorm Society LIGHTNING COLLAPSES PAVLOVA 04 JANUARY 2002 GREYMOUTH – Don't blame the cook for the disastrous pavlova placed on the table – blame the weather. At least that's what a West Coast family is doing. The Burns family, of Rotomanu, 40km from Greymouth, was watching TV on New Year's Day when a large ball of lightning suddenly appeared in the lounge. Liz Burns said her family were in the lounge when they heard a sharp crack. When she looked into the lounge she saw a "huge ball". "It must have come through the power socket our portable phone is attached to. "It was there and then it was gone – it gave us all a fright." Benjamin Roper, 11, was visiting his friend Ryan at the house when it happened. "The ball was yellow, and about two feet in diameter – it had sparks flying off it. It stayed in the lounge for only several seconds then disappeared with a loud noise," he said. When the family, and Benjamin, inspected the damage from the rare meteorological phenomenon, they found a pen near the phone had been snapped by the lightning. "The pen was melted to the floor," Mrs Burns said. A bedroom light-bulb had also melted, and to cap it all off, a pavlova on top of the microwave had collapsed. When Mrs Burns' daughter touched the floor, she received an electric shock. "Everything went back to normal except the phone, the pen and the pavlova," said Benjamin. About one in 100 people claim to have seen ball lightning, but scientists have never been able to come up with a satisfactory explanation for it. Ball lightning can be any colour, but is normally white or yellowish, with an intensity roughly equivalent to a 100-watt light bulb. Two years ago University of Christchurch scientists John Abrahamson and James Dinniss said they believed the bright, hovering spheres first recorded in the Middle Ages were fluffy balls of burning silicon created by ordinary fork lightning striking the earth. –NZPA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: baygate.cth.com.au: Host di42-nr.cth.com.au [203.29.209.243] claimed to be zenith X-Sender: skerans at mail.cth.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.5 (32) Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2002 21:05:17 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Sel Kerans Subject: aus-wx: NASA Observatory - Pics of Bushfires in NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, From NASA Earth Observatory, the latest... >* Latest Images: > Fires Continue to Rage Near Sydney, Australia > http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=6770 > > Severe Bush Fires Near Sydney, Australia > http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=6764 > Here's hoping for cooler temperatures and some rain for these folks soon... I will try to get to a quick report on the recent severe storms we had through this part of the world... Sel Elimbah ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Sel Kerans Coordinator \|/ &&&&& Project Atmosphere Australia On-line -0- .--_|\ "/" WWW: http://www.schools.ash.org.au/paa /|\ / \ \ Email: skerans at mail.cth.com.au \_.--\_/ v *** Now taking registrations from schools around the world *** *** On-line activities scheduled for March, April, May 2002 *** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p756-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.248] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sun, 06 Jan 2002 23:15:42 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Next NSW ASWA Meeting - 12th January 2002 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com To all those who would like to come along and have never been to one previously, you are invited to come along. The NSW ASWA (Australian Severe Weather Association) meeting is on this coming Saturday 12th January 2002. The theme of the meeting - well it has to be "Fire" This is I suppose something we have not discussed previously so this is an ideal time to have a meeting on this theme. Please bring along any videos, photographs, newspaper articles <- this can make this theme more interesting, any stories you have (you may know someone affected or observed it yourself), statistics of the weather conditions involved, weather charts whatever you would like with that theme in mind. It could also be of previous fires as well but the main discussion will be on this event (more below). This may be the main theme but if you have other things you would like to show, by all means bring it along - hey there was a tornado during this period. Please though, those with videos, please let us know you have them on the night so you don't miss out showing it. The meeting could involve discussion on: - What conditions existed prior to the outbreak - What meteorological conditions were in place that lead to the fires - Why were the fires particularly severe as compared to other fire outbreaks - Comparison to January 1994 and other significant outbreaks of the past - 1968... - Comments on media coverage Please think about these points and you can then come prepared for discussion as well as resources. Then we shall move onto presentations of video and photographs. Then move onto other weather related items such as tornado. Where are the meetings? Place: 7 West Street North Sydney (there is ample parking in the street) Time: make an earlier start say 7:30pm (but come when you can make it) Date: as above Saturday 12th January 2002 I know we have forgotten of late but feel free to get some nibblies and drinks. And of course, you guessed it - money for pizza for those who would like to eat at that time. I also would like to extend the welcome to all members and visitors who would like to join in. Coming the first time is the hardest step to take and then you won't look back. You will not feel alone at all. Those that require transport, can you please contact me and I will see what I can arrange beforehand (no promises). My contact details are: e-mail: jdeguara at ihug.com.au mobile: 0408020468 Looking forward to see as many people there as possible. Please note, I will host this meeting as both Matt Pearce and Matt Smith are not going to be able to make it for this meeting (other commitments). Jimmy Deguara ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 06 Jan 02 23:14:43 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Rosalina! 06 Jan 02 11:49, you wrote to All: RC> "sulfnbk.exe" RC> RC> is actually part of Windows. This is correct. I have actually had occasion to use it once. It's for backing up long file names before doing DOS based copying operations (which would lost the long filenames). Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "faerinelda" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 00:03:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening all,
 
Firstly, what threat does the lightning moving across NSW pose given its current conditions?
 
The picture from the earth lab was amazing thank you Sel!
 
Finally, when do you think there could be some storm activity for Melbourne??
 
Thanks
Catherine
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 00:16:10 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 07/01/2002 12:16:10 AM X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id IAA13393 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI.. I dont think the lightning is needed at all even though there is some rain about. There is more storms from the east around Parkes/Forbes now which are heading towards Bathurst / Orange again. Its been along day and night here so far.. Many outages being reported from lightning strikes. Dave "faerinelda" To: Sent by: cc: aussie-weather-approval at wor Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus ld.std.com 07/01/2002 12:03 AM Please respond to aussie-weather Evening all, Firstly, what threat does the lightning moving across NSW pose given its current conditions? The picture from the earth lab was amazing thank you Sel! Finally, when do you think there could be some storm activity for Melbourne?? Thanks Catherine ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul" To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 01:19:29 +1100 X-Mailer: PMMail 2000 Professional (2.20.2360) For Windows 2000 (5.0.2195;2) Subject: Re: aus-wx: NASA Observatory - Pics of Bushfires in NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi everyone,

Sel, this pix are outstanding!!

Thanx for sharing the link
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 00:16:50 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Clyve and All. Having added todays satpics to the animation, it now appears that wind shear was the cause, as you can see the rapid retreat and dissipation of the higher level cloud, leaving the well defined LLCC fully exposed. The wind shear does exhibit complex behaviour, however that now seems the best explanation. I have uploaded the latest version of the animation at the same URL. Regards, Carl. >Hi Clyve and All. > >Having looked at the 3 day animation I have uploaded at at >http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.trop.satpicloop.gif >several more times, you could be right about double centres, as there >certainly seems to be more going on than a simple sheared cyclone. > >Looking at todays satpics, there may actually be more than 2 centres as the >system is degenerating, otherwise the cloud patterns are quite hard to >explain. > >Regards, >Carl. > >> Hi Clyve, The approximate amount of "shear" required to >>explain the vis satpic was in the order of 200kms..., which would surely >>be unlikely. Regards, John W. >> >> -----Original Message----- >>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Clyve Herbert >>Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 8:35 PM >>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >>Subject: aus-wx: Bernie, two TC's ?. >> >> Hi all tropos, The longer I look at sat pics of the evolution of >>Bernie the more I suspect that this system may have been a complex of more >>than one centre, Bernie was always rather hard to pin point especially in >>its early stages, I strongly suspect that a primary centre crossed the >>coast at around midday on Friday QLD time well to the west of >>Mornington island, with a secondary centre to the north of Mornington >>island, although there is a good argument for shear removing the mid >>and upper portions to explain this activity I am not aware of this >>happening too often prior to the affect of the upper mid lat westerlies >>which are seen further to poleward. regards Clyve Herbert. > > >~~~~~~~~~~ >Carl Smith. >Gold Coast. >Queensland. >Australia. > >Email: carls at qldnet.com.au >Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ >Current Tropical Cyclone information : >http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm >Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 00:32:52 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id JAA18097 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier and All. >This was a strange cyclone. I've just discovered that Centre Island, about >250km west of Bernie's track, recorded its lowest January **minimum** >temperature on record on Friday 4 January, then again broke that record in >the early hours of Saturday with a temp of 19. From the story I've just >written for Australian Weather News: > >One unusual feature of the cyclone was the cold temperature experienced in >the southerly winds on its western side. Centre Island and Borroloola, both >about 300km WNW of Mornington Island, reported temperatures around 20° for >about 24 hours from early this morning. Centre Island's normal January >temperature range is 26.8 to 33.7 and Borroloola's is 24.4 to 35.5, >reflecting its location about 40km inland. The unusual result was for Centre >Island to record its lowest January minimum temperature on record today, >with a minimum of 20.1, then repeat the performance with a minimum of 19.0 >for Saturday 5 January. The previous January low in 25 years of record was >21.0. > >Anyone (Carl?) care to speculate on any links between this and the cyclone's >rather unusual behaviour. > >Laurier I would consider it 'normal' for temps in the southern flow into a cyclone to be a bit below average especially as a cooler SE wind was being directed into the system on the SW side of the trough running down across Qld from it, although the extent below normal does seem a little large. This certainly would have contributed to it's rapid downgrading to Cat 1 by landfall and could explain the odd convective behaviour in the clouds on it's SW side as the top sheared off, which was possibly caused by the cold air intrusion. Todays satpics added to the animation at http://www.qldnet.com.au/~carls/imagescurrent/g5.trop.satpicloop.gif shows much of the sheared off top being pulled apart as it retreated very quickly to the NW away from the now fully exposed LLCC revealing just how strong the shearing wind stream was. Regards, Carl. > > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com >> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill >> Sent: Friday, 04 January, 2002 9:19 PM >> To: Aussie-wx >> Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie >> >> >> Ok, I'm confused...according to this text forecast, the TC is to cross >> the coast at 5am tomroow (Saturday morning AEDST) - is this right?? >> especially when you look at any satpic you care to find.....it appears >> that Bernie is definitely well over land & should now be chased on >> horseback... I know that they use a combination of information to >> determine the location of the centre, but for the life of me I can't >> make head or tail of it atm......... >> >> http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home >> go to Bernie in the left hand frame for the infrared image >> >> https://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/show.pl?sat+aust+wv+auwv20020040831.jpg >> Hit yes if a security warning comes up - the site is safe but the >> certificate has expired - water vapour >> >> 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 139.0E3. >> TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (BERNIE) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM >> NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT >> 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON >> 040530Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, RADAR, AND >> AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE >> CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS, AND A BUOY REPORT >> (52627) OF 32 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER AT 040500Z9. ANIMATED SATELLITE >> IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST >> OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE >> EAST OF TC 09P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH- >> SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS >> (NGPS, AVN, GFDN, EGRR, TLAPS, TCLPS) AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. 200 >> MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND >> SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO >> DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND >> 041800Z3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z0 IS 08 FEET. >> NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.// >> >> >> Help!!! Can someone please point me in the right direction here...... >> >> -------------------------------- >> Jane ONeill - Melbourne >> cadence at stormchasers.au.com >> >> Melbourne Storm Chasers >> http://www.stormchasers.au.com >> >> ASWA - Victoria >> http://www.severeweather.asn.au >> -------------------------------- >> >> >> >> >> >> >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >> > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 06:06:18 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Thanks Tony, Its a cooler day (slightly) here in Brissy. Hope for some rain later. Rosalina > > Hello Rosalina! > > 06 Jan 02 11:49, you wrote to All: > > RC> "sulfnbk.exe" > RC> > RC> is actually part of Windows. > > This is correct. I have actually had occasion to use it once. It's for > backing up long file names before doing DOS based copying operations (which > would lost the long filenames). > > Tony, VK3JED +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p756-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.248] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 09:04:46 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall over night and 2001 rainfall for Schofields Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, It has been some time when I recall being in double figures (perhaps in November). It rained persistently from late night right throughout and in some cases heavy. There was lightning flashes and thunder rumbling as well. As a result we had 39.2mm of rain which is the heaviest fall since February 6th last year when we had 43.6mm. Yes we had a 30mm in March and the odd 20mm in May and later on but as I discussed with Michael Bath yesterday, it has been a very dry second half year. This shows that the rainfall was mostly in the first part of the year Total 750.2 (Sorry Keith I made an error in saying 720mm but this is stilla vast difference to your 850mm when you know Seven Hills and Schofields are about 10km as the crow flies apart) DateRainfall Monday, 1 January 20010 Tuesday, 2 January 20010 Wednesday, 3 January 20010 Thursday, 4 January 20010 Friday, 5 January 20010 Saturday, 6 January 20011 Sunday, 7 January 20010 Monday, 8 January 20010 Tuesday, 9 January 20010 Wednesday, 10 January 20010 Thursday, 11 January 20010 Friday, 12 January 20010 Saturday, 13 January 20010 Sunday, 14 January 20010 Monday, 15 January 20010 Tuesday, 16 January 20010.6 Wednesday, 17 January 20010 Thursday, 18 January 200124 Friday, 19 January 20016.2 Saturday, 20 January 20010.4 Sunday, 21 January 20010 Monday, 22 January 20010 Tuesday, 23 January 20010 Wednesday, 24 January 20010 Thursday, 25 January 20010 Friday, 26 January 20010 Saturday, 27 January 20010.4 Sunday, 28 January 200132 Monday, 29 January 2001TRR Tuesday, 30 January 20010 Wednesday, 31 January 200145.6 Thursday, 1 February 200195 Friday, 2 February 20013.4 Saturday, 3 February 20013 Sunday, 4 February 20010 Monday, 5 February 20010 Tuesday, 6 February 200143.6 Wednesday, 7 February 20019.8 Thursday, 8 February 2001TRR Friday, 9 February 20010 Saturday, 10 February 20010 Sunday, 11 February 20015 Monday, 12 February 20010 Tuesday, 13 February 20010 Wednesday, 14 February 20010 Thursday, 15 February 20018.8 Friday, 16 February 20010.2 Saturday, 17 February 20010.8 Sunday, 18 February 20010 Monday, 19 February 20010 Tuesday, 20 February 20010 Wednesday, 21 February 200112.4 Thursday, 22 February 2001TRF Friday, 23 February 20010 Saturday, 24 February 20010 Sunday, 25 February 20010 Monday, 26 February 20010 Tuesday, 27 February 20010 Wednesday, 28 February 20010.2 Thursday, 1 March 200122.4 Friday, 2 March 20011.6 Saturday, 3 March 20016.6 Sunday, 4 March 20013.6 Monday, 5 March 20010.6 Tuesday, 6 March 20019.2 Wednesday, 7 March 20013.6 Thursday, 8 March 200115.8 Friday, 9 March 20011.2 Saturday, 10 March 200112.8 Sunday, 11 March 20015.4 Monday, 12 March 20017.2 Tuesday, 13 March 200117.4 Wednesday, 14 March 2001TRR Thursday, 15 March 20010 Friday, 16 March 20010 Saturday, 17 March 20012 Sunday, 18 March 20010 Monday, 19 March 20010 Tuesday, 20 March 20010 Wednesday, 21 March 20010 Thursday, 22 March 20010.2 Friday, 23 March 20010 Saturday, 24 March 20010 Sunday, 25 March 20010.4 Monday, 26 March 20011.2 Tuesday, 27 March 20010 Wednesday, 28 March 20010 Thursday, 29 March 20010 Friday, 30 March 20010 Saturday, 31 March 20010 Sunday, 1 April 20010 Monday, 2 April 20010 Tuesday, 3 April 20013.4 Wednesday, 4 April 20010 Thursday, 5 April 20010 Friday, 6 April 20010 Saturday, 7 April 20010 Sunday, 8 April 20010 Monday, 9 April 20010 Tuesday, 10 April 20012.2 Wednesday, 11 April 20010 Thursday, 12 April 20010 Friday, 13 April 20010 Saturday, 14 April 20010 Sunday, 15 April 20010 Monday, 16 April 20010 Tuesday, 17 April 20010 Wednesday, 18 April 20010 Thursday, 19 April 20010 Friday, 20 April 20011 Saturday, 21 April 200130 Sunday, 22 April 2001ABSENT Monday, 23 April 200132.2 Tuesday, 24 April 20010 Wednesday, 25 April 20010 Thursday, 26 April 20010 Friday, 27 April 2001TRF Saturday, 28 April 20010 Sunday, 29 April 20010 Monday, 30 April 20013.4 Tuesday, 1 May 20012.4 Wednesday, 2 May 20010 Thursday, 3 May 20010 Friday, 4 May 20010 Saturday, 5 May 20010.6 Sunday, 6 May 200114.4 Monday, 7 May 2001TRR Tuesday, 8 May 200110.6 Wednesday, 9 May 20017.2 Thursday, 10 May 20010 Friday, 11 May 20010 Saturday, 12 May 20010 Sunday, 13 May 20010 Monday, 14 May 20010 Tuesday, 15 May 20010 Wednesday, 16 May 20010 Thursday, 17 May 20010 Friday, 18 May 20010 Saturday, 19 May 20010.4 Sunday, 20 May 20010 Monday, 21 May 20010 Tuesday, 22 May 20010 Wednesday, 23 May 20010 Thursday, 24 May 20010 Friday, 25 May 20010 Saturday, 26 May 20010 Sunday, 27 May 20010 Monday, 28 May 20010 Tuesday, 29 May 200119.4 Wednesday, 30 May 20010.2 Thursday, 31 May 20010 Friday, 1 June 20010.6 Saturday, 2 June 20010.2 Sunday, 3 June 20010 Monday, 4 June 20010 Tuesday, 5 June 20010 Wednesday, 6 June 20010 Thursday, 7 June 20010.4 Friday, 8 June 20010 Saturday, 9 June 20010 Sunday, 10 June 20010 Monday, 11 June 20011 Tuesday, 12 June 20010 Wednesday, 13 June 20010 Thursday, 14 June 20010 Friday, 15 June 20010 Saturday, 16 June 20010 Sunday, 17 June 20010 Monday, 18 June 20010 Tuesday, 19 June 20010.2 Wednesday, 20 June 2001TRF Thursday, 21 June 20010 Friday, 22 June 20010 Saturday, 23 June 20010 Sunday, 24 June 20010 Monday, 25 June 20010 Tuesday, 26 June 20010 Wednesday, 27 June 20010 Thursday, 28 June 2001TRF Friday, 29 June 20010.2 Saturday, 30 June 20010.2 Sunday, 1 July 20010 Monday, 2 July 20010 Tuesday, 3 July 20010.2 Wednesday, 4 July 20010 Thursday, 5 July 20010 Friday, 6 July 20013.6 Saturday, 7 July 20010 Sunday, 8 July 20010 Monday, 9 July 20010 Tuesday, 10 July 20010 Wednesday, 11 July 20013 Thursday, 12 July 20010.4 Friday, 13 July 20010.4 Saturday, 14 July 20010.2 Sunday, 15 July 20010 Monday, 16 July 20010 Tuesday, 17 July 20010 Wednesday, 18 July 20010 Thursday, 19 July 20010 Friday, 20 July 20010 Saturday, 21 July 20010 Sunday, 22 July 20010 Monday, 23 July 20010 Tuesday, 24 July 20010.2 Wednesday, 25 July 20017 Thursday, 26 July 20014.4 Friday, 27 July 200120.6 Saturday, 28 July 200113 Sunday, 29 July 2001TRR Monday, 30 July 20010.2 Tuesday, 31 July 20010 Wednesday, 1 August 20010 Thursday, 2 August 20010 Friday, 3 August 20010 Saturday, 4 August 20010 Sunday, 5 August 20010 Monday, 6 August 20010 Tuesday, 7 August 20010 Wednesday, 8 August 20010 Thursday, 9 August 20010 Friday, 10 August 20010 Saturday, 11 August 20010 Sunday, 12 August 20010 Monday, 13 August 2001TRF Tuesday, 14 August 200113 Wednesday, 15 August 20010.2 Thursday, 16 August 20010 Friday, 17 August 20010 Saturday, 18 August 20010 Sunday, 19 August 20010 Monday, 20 August 20010 Tuesday, 21 August 20010 Wednesday, 22 August 20010 Thursday, 23 August 20010 Friday, 24 August 20010 Saturday, 25 August 20010 Sunday, 26 August 20010 Monday, 27 August 20018 Tuesday, 28 August 20018 Wednesday, 29 August 200110.8 Thursday, 30 August 20013.4 Friday, 31 August 20010 Saturday, 1 September 20010 Sunday, 2 September 20010.6 Monday, 3 September 20010.8 Tuesday, 4 September 20010 Wednesday, 5 September 20010.4 Thursday, 6 September 20010 Friday, 7 September 20010 Saturday, 8 September 20010.6 Sunday, 9 September 20010 Monday, 10 September 20010 Tuesday, 11 September 20010 Wednesday, 12 September 20018.4 Thursday, 13 September 20010.4 Friday, 14 September 2001TRF Saturday, 15 September 20010 Sunday, 16 September 20010 Monday, 17 September 20010 Tuesday, 18 September 20011 Wednesday, 19 September 20010 Thursday, 20 September 20010 Friday, 21 September 20010.6 Saturday, 22 September 2001TRF Sunday, 23 September 20010 Monday, 24 September 20010 Tuesday, 25 September 20010 Wednesday, 26 September 20010.2 Thursday, 27 September 20010 Friday, 28 September 20010 Saturday, 29 September 20010 Sunday, 30 September 20010 Monday, 1 October 20010.2 Tuesday, 2 October 20014.2 Wednesday, 3 October 200115 Thursday, 4 October 20010 Friday, 5 October 2001TRR Saturday, 6 October 20010 Sunday, 7 October 20010 Monday, 8 October 20010 Tuesday, 9 October 20010 Wednesday, 10 October 20010 Thursday, 11 October 20013.6 Friday, 12 October 20013.2 Saturday, 13 October 20010 Sunday, 14 October 20015.6 Monday, 15 October 20010 Tuesday, 16 October 20010 Wednesday, 17 October 20010 Thursday, 18 October 20010 Friday, 19 October 20010 Saturday, 20 October 20010 Sunday, 21 October 20010 Monday, 22 October 20010 Tuesday, 23 October 20010 Wednesday, 24 October 20010.6 Thursday, 25 October 20012.6 Friday, 26 October 20010 Saturday, 27 October 20010 Sunday, 28 October 20010 Monday, 29 October 20010 Tuesday, 30 October 20010 Wednesday, 31 October 20010 Thursday, 1 November 20010 Friday, 2 November 20010 Saturday, 3 November 20010 Sunday, 4 November 20010.2 Monday, 5 November 20010 Tuesday, 6 November 20010 Wednesday, 7 November 200113.6 Thursday, 8 November 20013 Friday, 9 November 20010.6 Saturday, 10 November 20010.8 Sunday, 11 November 20010 Monday, 12 November 20014.8 Tuesday, 13 November 20010 Wednesday, 14 November 20010 Thursday, 15 November 20010 Friday, 16 November 20012 Saturday, 17 November 20010 Sunday, 18 November 20012.4 Monday, 19 November 20012.2 Tuesday, 20 November 200113.8 Wednesday, 21 November 2001TRR Thursday, 22 November 20010 Friday, 23 November 20010 Saturday, 24 November 20012.8 Sunday, 25 November 20010 Monday, 26 November 20010 Tuesday, 27 November 20010.6 Wednesday, 28 November 20010 Thursday, 29 November 20010 Friday, 30 November 20010 Saturday, 1 December 20015.6 Sunday, 2 December 20010 Monday, 3 December 2001TRR Tuesday, 4 December 20010 Wednesday, 5 December 20010 Thursday, 6 December 20010 Friday, 7 December 20010 Saturday, 8 December 20015.6 Sunday, 9 December 20016.6 Monday, 10 December 20010 Tuesday, 11 December 20010 Wednesday, 12 December 20010 Thursday, 13 December 20010 Friday, 14 December 20010 Saturday, 15 December 20011 Sunday, 16 December 20011.4 Monday, 17 December 20010.4 Tuesday, 18 December 20010 Wednesday, 19 December 20012.6 Thursday, 20 December 20010 Friday, 21 December 20011.6 Saturday, 22 December 20010 Sunday, 23 December 20010 Monday, 24 December 20010.2 Tuesday, 25 December 20010 Wednesday, 26 December 20010 Thursday, 27 December 20010 Friday, 28 December 20010 Saturday, 29 December 20010 Sunday, 30 December 20010 Monday, 31 December 20010 750.2 ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.154.226] From: "Dave Ellem" To: Subject: aus-wx: PyroCb Stormchase Report - 22/12/01 Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 09:41:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Jan 2002 22:41:50.0990 (UTC) FILETIME=[5500DAE0:01C19703] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi!
Michael Bath and I have finally gotten around to writting up a report on our storm chase on the 22nd of December when we encountered Cb's fueld by bushfires. Big thanks to MB for putting a lot of the report together!! Enjoy!!

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-02.htm 
 
Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW 
From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rainfall over night and 2001 rainfall for Schofields Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 10:46:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Weren't those storms great. 33.6mm here to 6am.The official Seven Hills site got 33 (approx.) Saw 2 'green flashes' from direct lightning hits on transformers but most of it gave the impression the gods were practising ten pin bowling. Some gusty winds but nothing severe (thank goodness). Seems a narrow band of northwestern suburbs from Richmond to Merrylands got the best of it. Radar was most impressive.Last time I had more than this was 21st April 2001 with 38.8mm.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2002 9:04 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall over night and 2001 rainfall for Schofields

Hi all,

It has been some time when I recall being in double figures (perhaps in
November). It rained persistently from late night right throughout and in
some cases heavy. There was lightning flashes and thunder rumbling as well.

As a result we had 39.2mm of rain which is the heaviest fall since February
6th last year when we had 43.6mm. Yes we had a 30mm in March and the odd
20mm in May and later on but as I discussed with Michael Bath yesterday, it
has been a very dry second half year.

This shows that the rainfall was mostly in the first part of the year

Total 750.2   (Sorry Keith I made an error in saying 720mm but this is
stilla vast difference to your 850mm when you know Seven Hills and
Schofields are about 10km as the crow flies apart)

DateRainfall
Monday, 1 January 20010
Tuesday, 2 January 20010
Wednesday, 3 January 20010
Thursday, 4 January 20010
Friday, 5 January 20010
Saturday, 6 January 20011
Sunday, 7 January 20010
Monday, 8 January 20010
Tuesday, 9 January 20010
Wednesday, 10 January 20010
Thursday, 11 January 20010
Friday, 12 January 20010
Saturday, 13 January 20010
Sunday, 14 January 20010
Monday, 15 January 20010
Tuesday, 16 January 20010.6
Wednesday, 17 January 20010
Thursday, 18 January 200124
Friday, 19 January 20016.2
Saturday, 20 January 20010.4
Sunday, 21 January 20010
Monday, 22 January 20010
Tuesday, 23 January 20010
Wednesday, 24 January 20010
Thursday, 25 January 20010
Friday, 26 January 20010
Saturday, 27 January 20010.4
Sunday, 28 January 200132
Monday, 29 January 2001TRR
Tuesday, 30 January 20010
Wednesday, 31 January 200145.6
Thursday, 1 February 200195
Friday, 2 February 20013.4
Saturday, 3 February 20013
Sunday, 4 February 20010
Monday, 5 February 20010
Tuesday, 6 February 200143.6
Wednesday, 7 February 20019.8
Thursday, 8 February 2001TRR
Friday, 9 February 20010
Saturday, 10 February 20010
Sunday, 11 February 20015
Monday, 12 February 20010
Tuesday, 13 February 20010
Wednesday, 14 February 20010
Thursday, 15 February 20018.8
Friday, 16 February 20010.2
Saturday, 17 February 20010.8
Sunday, 18 February 20010
Monday, 19 February 20010
Tuesday, 20 February 20010
Wednesday, 21 February 200112.4
Thursday, 22 February 2001TRF
Friday, 23 February 20010
Saturday, 24 February 20010
Sunday, 25 February 20010
Monday, 26 February 20010
Tuesday, 27 February 20010
Wednesday, 28 February 20010.2
Thursday, 1 March 200122.4
Friday, 2 March 20011.6
Saturday, 3 March 20016.6
Sunday, 4 March 20013.6
Monday, 5 March 20010.6
Tuesday, 6 March 20019.2
Wednesday, 7 March 20013.6
Thursday, 8 March 200115.8
Friday, 9 March 20011.2
Saturday, 10 March 200112.8
Sunday, 11 March 20015.4
Monday, 12 March 20017.2
Tuesday, 13 March 200117.4
Wednesday, 14 March 2001TRR
Thursday, 15 March 20010
Friday, 16 March 20010
Saturday, 17 March 20012
Sunday, 18 March 20010
Monday, 19 March 20010
Tuesday, 20 March 20010
Wednesday, 21 March 20010
Thursday, 22 March 20010.2
Friday, 23 March 20010
Saturday, 24 March 20010
Sunday, 25 March 20010.4
Monday, 26 March 20011.2
Tuesday, 27 March 20010
Wednesday, 28 March 20010
Thursday, 29 March 20010
Friday, 30 March 20010
Saturday, 31 March 20010
Sunday, 1 April 20010
Monday, 2 April 20010
Tuesday, 3 April 20013.4
Wednesday, 4 April 20010
Thursday, 5 April 20010
Friday, 6 April 20010
Saturday, 7 April 20010
Sunday, 8 April 20010
Monday, 9 April 20010
Tuesday, 10 April 20012.2
Wednesday, 11 April 20010
Thursday, 12 April 20010
Friday, 13 April 20010
Saturday, 14 April 20010
Sunday, 15 April 20010
Monday, 16 April 20010
Tuesday, 17 April 20010
Wednesday, 18 April 20010
Thursday, 19 April 20010
Friday, 20 April 20011
Saturday, 21 April 200130
Sunday, 22 April 2001ABSENT
Monday, 23 April 200132.2
Tuesday, 24 April 20010
Wednesday, 25 April 20010
Thursday, 26 April 20010
Friday, 27 April 2001TRF
Saturday, 28 April 20010
Sunday, 29 April 20010
Monday, 30 April 20013.4
Tuesday, 1 May 20012.4
Wednesday, 2 May 20010
Thursday, 3 May 20010
Friday, 4 May 20010
Saturday, 5 May 20010.6
Sunday, 6 May 200114.4
Monday, 7 May 2001TRR
Tuesday, 8 May 200110.6
Wednesday, 9 May 20017.2
Thursday, 10 May 20010
Friday, 11 May 20010
Saturday, 12 May 20010
Sunday, 13 May 20010
Monday, 14 May 20010
Tuesday, 15 May 20010
Wednesday, 16 May 20010
Thursday, 17 May 20010
Friday, 18 May 20010
Saturday, 19 May 20010.4
Sunday, 20 May 20010
Monday, 21 May 20010
Tuesday, 22 May 20010
Wednesday, 23 May 20010
Thursday, 24 May 20010
Friday, 25 May 20010
Saturday, 26 May 20010
Sunday, 27 May 20010
Monday, 28 May 20010
Tuesday, 29 May 200119.4
Wednesday, 30 May 20010.2
Thursday, 31 May 20010
Friday, 1 June 20010.6
Saturday, 2 June 20010.2
Sunday, 3 June 20010
Monday, 4 June 20010
Tuesday, 5 June 20010
Wednesday, 6 June 20010
Thursday, 7 June 20010.4
Friday, 8 June 20010
Saturday, 9 June 20010
Sunday, 10 June 20010
Monday, 11 June 20011
Tuesday, 12 June 20010
Wednesday, 13 June 20010
Thursday, 14 June 20010
Friday, 15 June 20010
Saturday, 16 June 20010
Sunday, 17 June 20010
Monday, 18 June 20010
Tuesday, 19 June 20010.2
Wednesday, 20 June 2001TRF
Thursday, 21 June 20010
Friday, 22 June 20010
Saturday, 23 June 20010
Sunday, 24 June 20010
Monday, 25 June 20010
Tuesday, 26 June 20010
Wednesday, 27 June 20010
Thursday, 28 June 2001TRF
Friday, 29 June 20010.2
Saturday, 30 June 20010.2
Sunday, 1 July 20010
Monday, 2 July 20010
Tuesday, 3 July 20010.2
Wednesday, 4 July 20010
Thursday, 5 July 20010
Friday, 6 July 20013.6
Saturday, 7 July 20010
Sunday, 8 July 20010
Monday, 9 July 20010
Tuesday, 10 July 20010
Wednesday, 11 July 20013
Thursday, 12 July 20010.4
Friday, 13 July 20010.4
Saturday, 14 July 20010.2
Sunday, 15 July 20010
Monday, 16 July 20010
Tuesday, 17 July 20010
Wednesday, 18 July 20010
Thursday, 19 July 20010
Friday, 20 July 20010
Saturday, 21 July 20010
Sunday, 22 July 20010
Monday, 23 July 20010
Tuesday, 24 July 20010.2
Wednesday, 25 July 20017
Thursday, 26 July 20014.4
Friday, 27 July 200120.6
Saturday, 28 July 200113
Sunday, 29 July 2001TRR
Monday, 30 July 20010.2
Tuesday, 31 July 20010
Wednesday, 1 August 20010
Thursday, 2 August 20010
Friday, 3 August 20010
Saturday, 4 August 20010
Sunday, 5 August 20010
Monday, 6 August 20010
Tuesday, 7 August 20010
Wednesday, 8 August 20010
Thursday, 9 August 20010
Friday, 10 August 20010
Saturday, 11 August 20010
Sunday, 12 August 20010
Monday, 13 August 2001TRF
Tuesday, 14 August 200113
Wednesday, 15 August 20010.2
Thursday, 16 August 20010
Friday, 17 August 20010
Saturday, 18 August 20010
Sunday, 19 August 20010
Monday, 20 August 20010
Tuesday, 21 August 20010
Wednesday, 22 August 20010
Thursday, 23 August 20010
Friday, 24 August 20010
Saturday, 25 August 20010
Sunday, 26 August 20010
Monday, 27 August 20018
Tuesday, 28 August 20018
Wednesday, 29 August 200110.8
Thursday, 30 August 20013.4
Friday, 31 August 20010
Saturday, 1 September 20010
Sunday, 2 September 20010.6
Monday, 3 September 20010.8
Tuesday, 4 September 20010
Wednesday, 5 September 20010.4
Thursday, 6 September 20010
Friday, 7 September 20010
Saturday, 8 September 20010.6
Sunday, 9 September 20010
Monday, 10 September 20010
Tuesday, 11 September 20010
Wednesday, 12 September 20018.4
Thursday, 13 September 20010.4
Friday, 14 September 2001TRF
Saturday, 15 September 20010
Sunday, 16 September 20010
Monday, 17 September 20010
Tuesday, 18 September 20011
Wednesday, 19 September 20010
Thursday, 20 September 20010
Friday, 21 September 20010.6
Saturday, 22 September 2001TRF
Sunday, 23 September 20010
Monday, 24 September 20010
Tuesday, 25 September 20010
Wednesday, 26 September 20010.2
Thursday, 27 September 20010
Friday, 28 September 20010
Saturday, 29 September 20010
Sunday, 30 September 20010
Monday, 1 October 20010.2
Tuesday, 2 October 20014.2
Wednesday, 3 October 200115
Thursday, 4 October 20010
Friday, 5 October 2001TRR
Saturday, 6 October 20010
Sunday, 7 October 20010
Monday, 8 October 20010
Tuesday, 9 October 20010
Wednesday, 10 October 20010
Thursday, 11 October 20013.6
Friday, 12 October 20013.2
Saturday, 13 October 20010
Sunday, 14 October 20015.6
Monday, 15 October 20010
Tuesday, 16 October 20010
Wednesday, 17 October 20010
Thursday, 18 October 20010
Friday, 19 October 20010
Saturday, 20 October 20010
Sunday, 21 October 20010
Monday, 22 October 20010
Tuesday, 23 October 20010
Wednesday, 24 October 20010.6
Thursday, 25 October 20012.6
Friday, 26 October 20010
Saturday, 27 October 20010
Sunday, 28 October 20010
Monday, 29 October 20010
Tuesday, 30 October 20010
Wednesday, 31 October 20010
Thursday, 1 November 20010
Friday, 2 November 20010
Saturday, 3 November 20010
Sunday, 4 November 20010.2
Monday, 5 November 20010
Tuesday, 6 November 20010
Wednesday, 7 November 200113.6
Thursday, 8 November 20013
Friday, 9 November 20010.6
Saturday, 10 November 20010.8
Sunday, 11 November 20010
Monday, 12 November 20014.8
Tuesday, 13 November 20010
Wednesday, 14 November 20010
Thursday, 15 November 20010
Friday, 16 November 20012
Saturday, 17 November 20010
Sunday, 18 November 20012.4
Monday, 19 November 20012.2
Tuesday, 20 November 200113.8
Wednesday, 21 November 2001TRR
Thursday, 22 November 20010
Friday, 23 November 20010
Saturday, 24 November 20012.8
Sunday, 25 November 20010
Monday, 26 November 20010
Tuesday, 27 November 20010.6
Wednesday, 28 November 20010
Thursday, 29 November 20010
Friday, 30 November 20010
Saturday, 1 December 20015.6
Sunday, 2 December 20010
Monday, 3 December 2001TRR
Tuesday, 4 December 20010
Wednesday, 5 December 20010
Thursday, 6 December 20010
Friday, 7 December 20010
Saturday, 8 December 20015.6
Sunday, 9 December 20016.6
Monday, 10 December 20010
Tuesday, 11 December 20010
Wednesday, 12 December 20010
Thursday, 13 December 20010
Friday, 14 December 20010
Saturday, 15 December 20011
Sunday, 16 December 20011.4
Monday, 17 December 20010.4
Tuesday, 18 December 20010
Wednesday, 19 December 20012.6
Thursday, 20 December 20010
Friday, 21 December 20011.6
Saturday, 22 December 20010
Sunday, 23 December 20010
Monday, 24 December 20010.2
Tuesday, 25 December 20010
Wednesday, 26 December 20010
Thursday, 27 December 20010
Friday, 28 December 20010
Saturday, 29 December 20010
Sunday, 30 December 20010
Monday, 31 December 20010
750.2


-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [202.139.125.41] From: "stuart hely" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: SYDNEY Radar Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 00:09:40 +0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Jan 2002 00:09:40.0452 (UTC) FILETIME=[99D8F240:01C1970F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Can anyone tell me why the Sydney radar is down and if it is expected back up soon? Thanks S _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 11:32:12 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This was a strange cyclone. I've just discovered that Centre Island, about > 250km west of Bernie's track, recorded its lowest January **minimum** > temperature on record on Friday 4 January, then again broke that record in > the early hours of Saturday with a temp of 19. From the story I've just > written for Australian Weather News: > > One unusual feature of the cyclone was the cold temperature experienced in > the southerly winds on its western side. Centre Island and Borroloola, both > about 300km WNW of Mornington Island, reported temperatures around 20° for > about 24 hours from early this morning. Centre Island's normal January > temperature range is 26.8 to 33.7 and Borroloola's is 24.4 to 35.5, > reflecting its location about 40km inland. The unusual result was for Centre > Island to record its lowest January minimum temperature on record today, > with a minimum of 20.1, then repeat the performance with a minimum of 19.0 > for Saturday 5 January. The previous January low in 25 years of record was > 21.0. Interesting one. A past cyclone which was exceptional for low minimum (and high maximum) temperatures was TC Nancy in February 1990, but that was a rather different scenario - Nancy (which was otherwise notable for its extreme southward penetration, getting well down the NSW coast and eventually giving very heavy rain in Sydney) had a very large circulation on its western flank, pushing southerly flow well into the Queensland tropics. This was associated with very low dewpoints (-1 at Townsville, for example), low minima and high maxima, often at the same time! Townsville had maxima between 37.6 and 39.6 on the five days 2-6 February 1990 (37.6 has only been exceeded on two other occasions in February, 12 and 13 February 1969), but also recorded its third-lowest February minimum on the 5th (18.4), and many other sites in NE Queensland broke February records. This time there doesn't seem to be much evidence of extreme northward penetration of dry air (the dewpoints at Borroloola and Centre Island appear to have bottomed out around 16, well below normal but certainly not record-setting material), nor is Bernie's circulation remotely as large as Nancy's. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 12:23:19 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Halos in Melbourne on Sat. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Just wondering if anyone managed to record those spectacular 22 and 46 degrees arcs that were present around 11am on Saturday. I was out on a bike ride and was impressed by the cirrus around (cirrus uncinus?) as it had huge streaks emanating from small patches. I found myself at Sandringham yacht club at around 11am (did anyone see me on the SYC webcam??) and noticed the 22 degree arc in the cirrus, which later became a full circle. The highlight though came a short time later with a very bright 46 degree arc being visible. The colours of both were extremely vivid, expecially the 46 degree one, and they would have to be the brightest examples I have ever seen. However, I didn't take my camera with me...doh! It was a good bike ride though, 80km in total with a stop at St Kilda for some more pretty sights. I followed that up with a 650km drive yesterday out north, towards and west of Echuca where I saw 9 dust devils along the way. It was perhaps a bit too windy for the dust devils, with northerlies gusting to 10-15 knots, and so most died pretty quickly after forming. The highlight was a solid yellow 'column' which, at just under 1km away, would've been around 20-30m high. There was a clump of gum trees just in front of it, and these were around 10-15m high, the the dust devil was clearly twice as high as these trees. However, by the time I pulled over and got the camera out, it had degenerated to a clump of dust. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Moonbows and Coldies Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 14:48:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Jan 2002 03:49:03.0830 (UTC) FILETIME=[3FD50760:01C1972E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
 
I have just returned home after spending a week at Port Fairy on the far SW coast of Victoria.  I saw HUGE numbers of coldies whilst I was there and got small hail on several occassions as well as some nice heavy rain and strong winds.  Yet the most interesting thing I saw was in fact a moonbow.  On the night of January 1st I was out walking with friends (may've been slightly "happy") at the south beach and we saw a moonbow.  The moon must've been quite full as it was very noticeable (the moonbow).  The moon was relatively low in the sky at the time and the bow was quite large in terms of height and length but it was quite thin and somewhat dull.  It was AMAZING to see and I would expect it to be quite rare to have all the required conditions in the right place at the right time. 
 
Hope everyone had a good new years eve and best wishes for the new year to all.
 
Andrew McDonald
(Macca)
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p756-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.142.248] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 15:09:09 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Moonbows and Coldies Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Andrew, Yes it is quite rare as I suppose you have to be looking out for it. I saw one several years (during the 1980's I suppose) and it was during the early hours of the morning (I think this event has been mentioned to the list for those with good memories). The moon was still probably about 45 degrees approx in the sky and it was showers clearing just east of me but it was still showering at the time. Quite a nice surprise for that time of the morning. Jimmy Deguara At 02:48 PM 7/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi all, > >I have just returned home after spending a week at Port Fairy on the far >SW coast of Victoria. I saw HUGE numbers of coldies whilst I was there >and got small hail on several occassions as well as some nice heavy rain >and strong winds. Yet the most interesting thing I saw was in fact a >moonbow. On the night of January 1st I was out walking with friends >(may've been slightly "happy") at the south beach and we saw a >moonbow. The moon must've been quite full as it was very noticeable (the >moonbow). The moon was relatively low in the sky at the time and the bow >was quite large in terms of height and length but it was quite thin and >somewhat dull. It was AMAZING to see and I would expect it to be quite >rare to have all the required conditions in the right place at the right >time. > >Hope everyone had a good new years eve and best wishes for the new year to >all. > >Andrew McDonald >(Macca) ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Mark Hardy - Pls contact me To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 15:19:19 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 07/01/2002 03:19:20 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI Mark.. Could you please email me with your contact phone no at work. Or ring me on 132356.. Thanks Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Yole" To: "Wx-Chase" , "Australian Weather Mailing List" Subject: aus-wx: Another cover photo Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 15:52:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey all. Well, just thought I'd let everyone know, that being in the CFA (Country Fire Authority), you can come across some interesting stuff. I happened to receive the CFA's "Brigade", Issue 2 for Summer 2002, and the cover photograph was taken by well known storm chaser and lightning photographer, as well as ASWA member, Michael Bath. I'd just like to say congratulations Michael, and that if you want a copy Michael, I'll send one to you. Anyway, a digicam picture of the cover can be found at http://www.geocities.com/pauly78au/DCP_5663.JPG There is also an interesting article in it on Fire weather and the influences it can have on fires. I'll try and get this up on my web server in the near future. PaulY Paul Yole Joint State Rep - Vic ASWA Communications Officer - Murtoa CFA Cell # - 041 836 9256 Home# - 035 385 2699 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 15:35:18 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair, I recall looking at Mt. Isa's sounding on the day in question, and noted that is showed what seemed to be unusually dry surface air for somewhere relatively close to an approaching TC - only a few degrees. John. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Blair Trewin Sent: Monday, January 07, 2002 10:32 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie > > This was a strange cyclone. I've just discovered that Centre Island, about > 250km west of Bernie's track, recorded its lowest January **minimum** > temperature on record on Friday 4 January, then again broke that record in > the early hours of Saturday with a temp of 19. From the story I've just > written for Australian Weather News: > > One unusual feature of the cyclone was the cold temperature experienced in > the southerly winds on its western side. Centre Island and Borroloola, both > about 300km WNW of Mornington Island, reported temperatures around 20° for > about 24 hours from early this morning. Centre Island's normal January > temperature range is 26.8 to 33.7 and Borroloola's is 24.4 to 35.5, > reflecting its location about 40km inland. The unusual result was for Centre > Island to record its lowest January minimum temperature on record today, > with a minimum of 20.1, then repeat the performance with a minimum of 19.0 > for Saturday 5 January. The previous January low in 25 years of record was > 21.0. Interesting one. A past cyclone which was exceptional for low minimum (and high maximum) temperatures was TC Nancy in February 1990, but that was a rather different scenario - Nancy (which was otherwise notable for its extreme southward penetration, getting well down the NSW coast and eventually giving very heavy rain in Sydney) had a very large circulation on its western flank, pushing southerly flow well into the Queensland tropics. This was associated with very low dewpoints (-1 at Townsville, for example), low minima and high maxima, often at the same time! Townsville had maxima between 37.6 and 39.6 on the five days 2-6 February 1990 (37.6 has only been exceeded on two other occasions in February, 12 and 13 February 1969), but also recorded its third-lowest February minimum on the 5th (18.4), and many other sites in NE Queensland broke February records. This time there doesn't seem to be much evidence of extreme northward penetration of dry air (the dewpoints at Borroloola and Centre Island appear to have bottomed out around 16, well below normal but certainly not record-setting material), nor is Bernie's circulation remotely as large as Nancy's. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Halos in Melbourne on Sat. Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 17:04:50 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Jan 2002 06:04:50.0245 (UTC) FILETIME=[37794F50:01C19741] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Robert and all

Apart from heat, does anyone know what other conditions favour the generation of dust devils?  I dont' want to get into a 'mine's bigger than your's' discussion, but the ones I saw up near Cammoweal were at least 200 metres high and quite long lasting, and in one case, 8 or so of them ranged across my view, seemingly in what appeared to be close to a straight line.  I wondered at the time whether this alignment represented some sort of boundary between winds of different directions or zone of convergence or even divergence.

Grateful to pointed in the direction of any reference material people might know about on the subject.

Michael


>I followed that up with a 650km drive yesterday out north, towards and

>west of Echuca where I saw 9 dust devils along the way. It was perhaps a
>bit too windy for the dust devils, with northerlies gusting to 10-15
>knots, and so most died pretty quickly after forming. The highlight was a
>solid yellow 'column' which, at just under 1km away, would've been around
>20-30m high. There was a clump of gum trees just in front of it, and
>these were around 10-15m high, the the dust devil was clearly twice as
>high as these trees. However, by the time I pulled over and got the camera
>out, it had degenerated to a clump of dust.


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+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 17:21:21 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: video of very close lightning bolt Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All, John Stevens of Gymea Bay in Sydney captured lightning hitting a tree just 3 metres from him on 3rd December 2001 ! He sent me the video and I have done up a few stills and a video clip. http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-01.htm John was interested to know what people think is occurring in the first 5 stills. Frame 2 shows the trees have lit up slightly, then in frame 3 they are back to normal. 4 is obviously total overexposure when the lightning hits, then I suspect frame 5 shows the residual heat/light/flame ? in the tree trunk after the lightning has passed. Frames are 1/25 sec apart. Any thoughts? regards, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Humidity Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 17:27:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Quite a drop in the dewpoint in the space of an hour or so this afternoon, from 21 to 14.
That westerly must have had a lot of Bernie's moisture wrapped up in it...still muggy with 36 degrees but no doubt dewpoints will plunge overnight..
From: "faerinelda" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 00:03:05 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-MDMail-Server: MDaemon v2.0 rU b1 32 X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening all,
 
Firstly, what threat does the lightning moving across NSW pose given its current conditions?
 
The picture from the earth lab was amazing thank you Sel!
 
Finally, when do you think there could be some storm activity for Melbourne??
 
Thanks
Catherine
Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 18:15:33 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: video of very close lightning bolt Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com WOWZERS!!! That takes the cake as the closest lightning bolt ever videod I think! (cant get any closer !) Very very very lucky. Matt Smith Michael Bath wrote: > Hi All, > > John Stevens of Gymea Bay in Sydney captured lightning hitting a tree just > 3 metres from him on 3rd December 2001 ! > He sent me the video and I have done up a few stills and a video clip. > > http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-01.htm > > John was interested to know what people think is occurring in the first 5 > stills. Frame 2 shows the trees have lit up slightly, then in frame 3 they > are back to normal. 4 is obviously total overexposure when the lightning > hits, then I suspect frame 5 shows the residual heat/light/flame ? in the > tree trunk after the lightning has passed. Frames are 1/25 sec apart. Any > thoughts? > > regards, Michael > > ================================================================== > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > ================================================================== > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.171.104.234] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: 2001 Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 20:43:23 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Jan 2002 09:43:24.0454 (UTC) FILETIME=[C026CC60:01C1975F] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi every1, Best wishes to all for the holidays, such as they are... Wycheproof's 2001 rainfall was 267 mm... dry as... Thunderdays = 10 Highest daily rainfall = 20 mm (20/1/01) Bummer year really...no hail...no decent thunderstorms... here's hoping 2002 will be better! Cheers, Kevin from Wycheproof. _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2002 21:00:22 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Catherine
 
The main lightning is now aligned to storms on the clearing edge  of a trough line.
 
This trough is moving NE and taking all activity with it. If you are NE of the trough expect humidity and storms, on the other side expect  windy and dry.
 
 michael
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: faerinelda
Sent: Monday, 7 January 2002 0:03
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning covering most of NE Aus

Evening all,
 
Firstly, what threat does the lightning moving across NSW pose given its current conditions?
 
The picture from the earth lab was amazing thank you Sel!
 
Finally, when do you think there could be some storm activity for Melbourne??
 
Thanks
Catherine
X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 12:55:55 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: December Darwin experience...belated Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all For those interested, and those that aren't (well tough!), I thought I'd give a run down as to what happened on my third and final trip (final for 2001 that is) to Darwin/Melville Island in December. Well, the highlight was meeting some of the NT ASWA members at their ASWA meeting, Paul M, Jacob G, Charlie and friend, and chatting about the Top End weather and storms and the like. The rest of the trip was c**p! For the first few days we were under the influence of an early monsoon break, which I thought would involve exciting lightning active storms and heavy rain. Instead it turned out to be like Melbourne with a southerly blowing; dreary, overcast with persistant showers, but only warmer. This continued up at Melville Island, with the high/low-light involving me and my teammate wading around in ankle deep water preparing for our balloon launch as the rain bucketed down for a good 3 hours flooding everything around us. For the record this balloon popped at 3km....not surprising (although earlier we did get the record of 37.293km!). The rest of the time leading up to the next launch was spent digging ditches and building dams trying to divert the water from our work area, and getting absolutely soaked in the process!!! The last half of the campaign brought clearer skies with patchy cumulus congestus with showers, but nothing too interesting. The increase in middle level cloud compared with November made things less photogenic. In short, during the entire 8 day period I took 4 photos....of the same sunset....2 of which were done with a foggy camera, and just over 1 hours of video footage! I suppose I could've left the 18 spare rolls of film and 13 blank video tapes back home! Not a single thunderstorm was seen nor heard, and Hector was nowhere to be seen. Oh well, I suppose I can't be too greedy as the November action was unbelievable. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 13:35:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Have been doing a bit of looking into Bernie & the soundings for the 4th Jan in that area - but I can't find anything that 'screams' that much shear..... 10am Weipa Gove Mt Isa Height Dir Knots Dir Knots Dir Knots 850 320 37 245 24 120 23 700 315 31 230 27 85 21 500 330 16 260 26 25 25 300 5 13 350 19 0 20 200 30 12 340 5 330 20 I can only get the 10pm soundings for Weipa .. 10am Weipa Height Dir Knots 850 290 27 700 320 32 500 350 14 300 90 12 200 80 14 I do have an image on the other computer that I'll upload tonight that looks like there might have been 2 separate 'identities'..... This is a very interesting discussion. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Hi Blair, I recall looking at Mt. Isa's sounding on the day in question, and noted that is showed what seemed to be unusually dry surface air for somewhere relatively close to an approaching TC - only a few degrees. John. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Blair Trewin Sent: Monday, January 07, 2002 10:32 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie > > This was a strange cyclone. I've just discovered that Centre Island, about > 250km west of Bernie's track, recorded its lowest January **minimum** > temperature on record on Friday 4 January, then again broke that record in > the early hours of Saturday with a temp of 19. From the story I've just > written for Australian Weather News: > > One unusual feature of the cyclone was the cold temperature experienced in > the southerly winds on its western side. Centre Island and Borroloola, both > about 300km WNW of Mornington Island, reported temperatures around 20° for > about 24 hours from early this morning. Centre Island's normal January > temperature range is 26.8 to 33.7 and Borroloola's is 24.4 to 35.5, > reflecting its location about 40km inland. The unusual result was for Centre > Island to record its lowest January minimum temperature on record today, > with a minimum of 20.1, then repeat the performance with a minimum of 19.0 > for Saturday 5 January. The previous January low in 25 years of record was > 21.0. Interesting one. A past cyclone which was exceptional for low minimum (and high maximum) temperatures was TC Nancy in February 1990, but that was a rather different scenario - Nancy (which was otherwise notable for its extreme southward penetration, getting well down the NSW coast and eventually giving very heavy rain in Sydney) had a very large circulation on its western flank, pushing southerly flow well into the Queensland tropics. This was associated with very low dewpoints (-1 at Townsville, for example), low minima and high maxima, often at the same time! Townsville had maxima between 37.6 and 39.6 on the five days 2-6 February 1990 (37.6 has only been exceeded on two other occasions in February, 12 and 13 February 1969), but also recorded its third-lowest February minimum on the 5th (18.4), and many other sites in NE Queensland broke February records. This time there doesn't seem to be much evidence of extreme northward penetration of dry air (the dewpoints at Borroloola and Centre Island appear to have bottomed out around 16, well below normal but certainly not record-setting material), nor is Bernie's circulation remotely as large as Nancy's. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 13:04:30 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: LR forecast for rain in Sydney this month. X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id WAA20801 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Quote from New Zealand long range weather forecaster Ken Ring's Weather Ezine dated Jan 2 2002: "Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires." As it turned out, this was a remarkably accurate prediction for Sydney and the area around it, as the BoM was forecasting only light showers with some thunderstorms dropping up to 10 mm at best at 10 pm just before the skies opened up over the Blue Mountains / Sydney area. Pity the rain was not a bit more widespread. I asked him what he thought the prospects for rain in the area for the next few weeks - here is his reply. >Hi Carl, >Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 >best wishes >Ken >www.predictweather.com I will be interested to see if this forecast bears out. I have pasted the full text of Ken Ring's Jan 2 and Jan 8 Weather Ezines below for those who may be interested / curious. Regards, Carl. >From: Ken Ring >Subject: Weather ezine January 2nd 2002 >Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 02:09:52 +1300 >Reply-To: ken at weatherman.co.nz >List-Subscribe: > >Greetings >Moon's position >Perigee weather >World weather has been changing >Rest of summer >Earthquakes in January >Keeping them honest >Droughts >Events coming >Almanac hard to get in some towns >Cook Strait crossings in January >Correspondence >Contact > >GREETINGS >Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather >and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the >ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words >like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up. > >MOON'S POSITION >For Wednesday, January 2nd. >We are 3 days after Full moon, 2 days after northern declination and right >on perigee. From Full Moon to Last Quarter the moon is out of the sky in mid >afternoon. It is the most dangerous time of the month. If rain or snow are >about they are more likely to fall at this time. Tornadoes, whirlwinds, >thunderstorms all occur more during this phase period. However, if none of >these nasties are about, the sun will burn much hotter. The reason is the >low atmospheric tide caused when the moon is out of the sky. With the >protection of the atmosphere diminished, cold or heat from space can more >easliy enter and eitherr condense clouds or allow in more of the sun's heat. >Whenever there is the three: Full Moon, declination and perigee, extreme >weather always results around the globe. Full Moons are more destructive in >the northern hemisphere winter, but not so much down here in January. In our >summer the New Moon is our nemesis. We are relatively secure, then, until >the New Moon of the 14th, which will be coupled with a southern declination >happening on the 13th. By the 16th the ensuing southerlies will bring much >rain to the South Island and which will reach the North Island around 17th. >We have only to look to last month when the moon was New and at southern >declination, around the 15th, to see what bad weather can result. > >PERIGEE WEATHER >Cylones form on perigees, and this perigee (January 2nd)is no exception. >Cyclone Waka is at present battering Tonga and Fiji but is not likely to >affect us. Waka whipped up 230km/hr hurricane-force winds and produced heavy >rain over Niufo'ou Island. Cyclonic weather with associated strong winds >that accompany perigees have been mainly hitting the northern hemisphere >where thopusands of homes remain without electricity after gale-force winds >and wintry showers have battered parts of Britain and Northern Ireland. >Winds of up to 85mph have brought power lines and trees down in Scotland, >while snow and sleet have made driving conditions difficult. The perigee >coinciding with the northern declination has meant that the moon has been >affecting the northernmost regions of the globe the most. As the perigee >passes, the cold weather gripping the northern hemisphere should ease. Down >here at the other end of the world, the perigee has brought intense heat, >and in some cases, like Sydney, strong winds as well. The West Coast of the >South Island today has experienced a hefty thunderstorm, with rivers running >high into Canterbury. Big earthquakes have occurred in Antarctica(mag. 6)and >in the Philippines(mag 6.3) yesterday, the 1st. Avalanches have occurred in >the last days in France and southern Poland, with 6 feared dead. Over the >past few years, perigee has occurred on the orbit path while the moon has >been in the northern hemisphere. The point of perigee has altered on this >section of the orbit but has not advanced to the other 180deg of the >southern hemisphere section of the orbit yet - something that will happen in >2003. > >WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING >When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, called minimum >declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over >the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the >winter gave longer frost periods. Also at that time, when the moon was at >northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or >an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. >Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was >thicker where the moon was, between the tropics, and the polar regions had a >much reduced atmosphere. As the moon works her way up to 2005-7(the maximum >declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to >get shorter, storms pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will >not linger as much. This is because at minimum declination(1996/7) the >moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes >place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of >56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daliy >advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 >the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, >and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so. This >climactic change is barely perceptible, but there are some who will shake >their heads and say 20 years ago there were more summery days in a row and >longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct. > >REST OF SUMMER >For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's >conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would >also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing >cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers. Drier than average >areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All >other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. >Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in >March, so threat of drought will be absent. For most of the north, Rotorua, >Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, and Wellington, there will be mainly sunny >weather for the first two weeks of January with the exception of January >6th/7th, when thereíll be some midday rain. Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney >should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires. >Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and >below average temperatures. The first month of spring will be wetter for >most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months. > >EARTHQUAKES IN JANUARY >The potential for earthquakes will be now till the 3rd, 12th-14th, and >27th-30th. >KEEPING THEM HONEST Using the Metservice's own figures, I daily noted the >printed maximum temperatures from the back page of the NZ Herald and >averaged them at the end of each month. I did this every day throughout the >WHOLE year. The results were then compared with Metservice's(from their >website)30 year monthly averages for Auckland. Rainfall figures were taken >from the same sources. Results? Rainfall was slightly above average overall, >mainly due to a significantly wetter May and December. Temperatures were >almost exactly average for each month, the exceptions being only August and >October. Unfortunately for the scaremongerers, overall the year was slightly >cooler and wetter than average. This means that during 2001 global warming >mysteriously bypassed Auckland. > >DROUGHT The Bay of Plenty still looks likely to be significantly drier >than normal and will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough >rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each >see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of >those days also see considerable sunshine hours. > >EVENTS COMING > >Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ(Mt Maunganui): 10th January. Fine and sunny. > >The Big Day Out(January 18th): Mainly dry but possibility of light passing >showers at night. > >Auckland Folk Festival, Kumeu showgrounds, 25th-28th January: First two >days: fine and sunny. Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods. >Monday: same as Sunday. > >Jazz and Blues Streetfest(Mission Bay, Feb 2): dry and sunny. > >Waitangi Day(February 6th, Bay of Islands); fine and sunny. > >ALMANAC HARD TO GET IN SOME TOWNS I have had reports that my Weather >Almanac 2002(publisher Hazard Press)is hard to obtain because shops seem to >be running out early, or are not ordering enough. You'll find daily weather >predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information >for every day of 2002. (For example the current bad weather on the West >Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, >plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall >projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. If you need one, >I do have copies which I sell from my office. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, >P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland and I'll mail one immediately. Sorry >folks, no credit cards. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. > >COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY Southerlies typically cause >choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend to blow the sea flat. >JANUARY Southerlies(avoid): 8th, 16th, 24th-26th. Northerlies(okay): >1st-7th, 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st. > >SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL A group of us >have put together a submission which we sent on Friday to the Ministry of >the Environment, urging them to consider an alternative viewpoint, which is >that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is very shonky and mainly >just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, just send >me a reply to this email, simply typing in the subject box "send >submission". > >CORRESPONDENCE Hello, I am a teacher with only a general science >background. I have just read James Lovelock's Gaia : the practical science >of planetary medicine and I am curious to know your opinion of his theories, >in particular his theory that photosynthesing algae in the ocean control the >cloud cover because(as I understand it) they emit a gas containing sulphur. >His theory is that Gaia is a self-regulating planet and the transmission of >sulphur from ocean to land is part of this but he is not sure whether this >can be sustained in the face of global warning. I find your web site and >your theories on the influence of the moon very interesting. Regards >Elizabeth (I don't know the work you quote so can't express an opinion on >it. But I can't see how algae can control cloud cover when jetstreams above >the troposhere travelling along at up to 500mph can change cloud cover >within an hour. However, I would entirely agree that the planet is >self-regulating and that all living systems fall into the rhythm of this. As >I don't believe there is any global warming, not now or ever, apart from a >recycling change over 18.613 years due to the changing lunar declination, >there is nothing to my mind that needs to be sustained. Over the longer haul >of tens of thousands of years there has been no appreciable climate change >either apart from polar shift, which explains why the so-called last Ice >Age, centred near Chicago saw snow and ice over Mexico and the Mojave >Desert. I think one could safely surmise that deep-sea algae spitting out >sulphur had very little to do with that.- K) > >Ken, This was in our local rag, might have some Kyoto appeal.. "FIGURES DO >NOT ADD UP A former Swiss thermal dynamics engineer who is living in >Cromwell believes some of the figures bandied about relating to climate >change do not add up. Otto Muller has a five-year background in flue >analysis of gas and coal-fired power stations in Switzerland. He said New >Zealand farmers should not be penalised by the Kyoto Protocol, but be paid >by overseas countries for their efficient method of using pasture to convert >green- house gases. Some of the climate change initiatives were driven by >scientists who had hijacked the green policy of some governments around the >globe, he said. "I think one of the endangered species is the homo sapiens >with a sense of proportion". Recent figures from the New Zealand Meat and >Wool Board had shown the country's farm animals were releasing 1.1 million >tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, Mr Muller said. This was only 0.8 >percent of the carbondioxide (C02) being absorbed by the pastures through >photosynthesis. "For removing C02 forests are not as efficient as pasture". >The country's grass had the ability to absorb 146 million tonnes of >carbondioxide each year, which should be included in the Kyoto Protocol as a >carbon credit, he said. "Our pasture system represents a giant carbon sink >that should obtain carbon credits rather than carbon tax". To put the whole >equation into perspective, New Zealands ecosystem could absorb one third of >the CO2 being released by the highly industrialised nation of France". >Cheers, Owen. > > Hi Ken. Just a couple of programs you or your readers may find >interesting..http://www.palmpilotarchives.com/calculators-_misc_2.html >MoonInfo! is a lunar calendar for PalmPilot OS users showing rise\set times, >phase, distance (but not declination) http://clysmic.com/lunabar/ This >is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful >information about phase, rise\set\overhead times. The best thing about this >program is that it puts a picture of the current phase into your system tray >for easy reference. I find you weather e-zine very interesting and >informative, please keep up the good work. >Thanks & Regards >Kris > > >CONTACT >Editor: Ken Ring, ph. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 >e-mail ken at weatherman.co.nz Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, >New Zealand. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions >or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed. This >e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely >distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized >commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2002 >www.predictweather.com >From: Ken Ring >Subject: Fw: Weather ezine January 8th 2002 >Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 00:39:41 +1300 >Reply-To: ken at weatherman.co.nz >List-Subscribe: > >Greetings >Moon's position >More Perigee/Full Moon/declination weather >Crossing Equator Weather >Snow on Whakapapa >World weather has been changing >Overseas Weather >New year >Seasons >In The Crystal Ball >>From Old Newspapers >Correspondence >Links >Rest of summer >Snippets Still Relevant, Carried Over From last Ezine >Contact > >GREETINGS >Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather >and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the >ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words >like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up. > >MOON'S POSITION >For Tuesday, January 8th. >Yesterday was the Last Quarter, and on Sunday the moon crossed the equator >heading south. We are now well-passed the awesome threesome of Full Moon, >declination and perigee, which always serves extreme weather. The next >watch-out-for period is the New Moon of the 14th, preceded by the southern >declination on the 13th. By the 16th from this system, southerlies will >bring rain to the South Island and to the North Island by 17th. > >MORE PERIGEE/FULL MOON/DECLINATION WEATHER >>From the 29th December-4th January, the following mayhem occurred around the >world. Snow paralysed central Europe. Parts of the Czech Republic were >declared a disaster area. Heavy snowfalls and blizzards caused chaos in many >parts of central Europe. More are feared dead in avalanches in Poland and in >the Alps. Snowdrifts piled up overnight on trunk roads, leaving drivers >stranded as they returned home after New Year celebrations. Bad weather was >forecast to continue across much of the country, and the temperatures were >expected to plunge to -18C. Heavy snows also caused problems in the >neighbouring Czech Republic and Slovakia. Officials in Prague declared about >a third of the country a disaster area, and several border crossings with >Poland and Germany were closed. In Albania, heavy snow left around 150,000 >villagers completely cut off on New Year's eve. Bad weather has also wreaked >havoc in Germany and France. Heavy rainfall caused flooding of the Mosell, >Meuse and Seine rivers. In Paris, lights illuminating the Pont Neuf in the >blue and yellow of the European flag, were turned off on Wednesday as the >waters of the Seine rose. Heavy snow also blanketed Central Japan, stranding >New Year's travelers. The city of Nagoya charted its biggest January >snowfall in 27 years, with nearly 7 inches blanketing the industrial city in >24 hours, said Kunishiko Yamagishi of Japan's Meteorological Agency. >Temperatures in Nagoya, 170 miles west of Tokyo, also dropped to their >lowest this winter, hitting 27 degrees. By midday on Jan. 3, snow had forced >the delay of 82 bullet trains in the region, affecting an estimated 74,000 >passengers, Japan Rail spokesman Naoyuki Maruyama said. Meanwhile, 35 >flights were canceled at the Nagoya airport as plows rushed to clear >runways, and stretches of highway throughout the region were also >temporarily closed due to mounting snows, media reports said. Greece has >suffered heavy snowfalls with the chill reaching Bulgaria and Turkey. >Meteorologists said on Sunday that the icy blast is the worst to hit Greece >since 1963. >Source: http://europe.cnn.com/2002/WEATHER/01/06/snow.greece/index.html > > >CROSSING EQUATOR WEATHER >At the moment this is the major pattern predominating. Winds increasing over >the short term, change and the odd electrical storm are to be expected. >Where over the Full Moon temperatures seemed intensely hot, now in some >places temperatures will seem unusually cool. Auckland and the upper >northern areas should stay dry, enabling hay to be cut around Thursday or >Friday. > > >SNOW ON WHAKAPAPA >There is a chance of early snow on Whakapapa in the last days of this month. >If so, skiers will get all fired up, thinking it's an early sign of a >massive season. Forget it. Early snow will be likely again at the end of the >first week in February and again in April, but the falls will be quickly >washed away by rain. It will be an interesting ski season, quite different >from last year. > > >OVERSEAS WEATHER >We predicted rain for Sydney as from about the 7th and this has been >falling, spelling good news for fire fighters. (From ABC - Carl Smith from >the Gold Coast reported today -.."a heavy band of thunderstorms has moved >through the Blue Mountains and Hawksbury regions and dumped widespread >rainfalls of 30 - 40 mm [1.2 - 1.6 inches] across much of the fire areas in >the last few hours. Looks like Ken Ring was right") >Cloudy skies for London will clear by the weekend. London will see >intermittent showers on most days for the rest of the month, with dry days >likely to be 15th, 17th-21st, 26th, 29th and 31st. Snowfalls are most likely >in London around 14th, 19th, and 30th/31st. The US will remain in the grip >of a record cold wave that has reached its icy fingers deep into the south >and embraced the midwest. Some parts of Russia and Europe will be wondering >when the snow will arrive. They won't have to wait too long(see below In The >Crystal Ball). Moscow and Montreal will see snow by the end of this week. >Rain and floods are due to hit India before the end of this week. > > >NEW YEAR >Different peoples have different ideas about the start of the new year. Most >Europeans think it is 1 January. Jewish people have their own day somewhere >between 5 September and 7 October. Moslems have a year lasting only 354 days >and 8 hours, a lunar year rather than a solar one. The ancient Greeks >believed all new years began in the autumn. Others believed, and some still >do, that the March equinox is a more reasonable beginning and indeed it was >Julius Caesar who hit on the idea of making it 1 January, the date of the >first day of the first month after winter solstice. Until then the Roman >year had begun on 1 March, continuing on from the traditions of the Celts >and Druids. > >SEASONS >Contrary to expectation, the earth is actually nearer the sun, by three >million miles, in the northern hemisphere winter than in the northern >hemisphere summer. The actual date of perihelion, or nearest approach, is >always the 2nd or 3rd January. The date of greatest distance(aphelion) is >1st or 2nd July. When it is nearer in midwinter, the sun appears to be >larger, but only by 1 minute 8 seconds of arc. In fact it causes a 7% >increase in solar radiation reaching this planet, and a 7% increase in light >and heat. Whatever northerners may think, the northern hemisphere winter is >less cold than the southern hemisphere one. Similarly, the northern summer, >due to the greater distance from the sun and the decrease in radiation, is >less warm than the southern summer. In January, planet earth is travelling >around the sun at about 19 miles per second; in July the speed is nearer 18 >miles per second. These speed differences help to explain why the seasons >are different lengths; in order from longest to shortest being summer, >spring, autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, and winter being the >longest by about 9 days in the southern hemisphere. Spring and summer are >each about three and a half days longer than autumn and winter in the north. > >IN THE CRYSTAL BALL >Gazing ahead for January, these international weather events are likely. >15th: snow in Montreal >16th: winter storms sweep Britain and Ireland. >17th: earthquake activity in NZ >18th: snow in Belgrade >20th: snow in Calgary >21st: snow in Toronto >22nd: snow in Toronto and Frankfurt >24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe >25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev. >27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and >Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm. >28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago. >29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm >30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal >31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw. > >FROM OLD NEWSPAPERS >21/4/1876 >"Expolsive Way To Get Rain >Some amusement was caused by the attempt made in Auckland a year or two ago >to bring down rain by firing a gun at Fort Britomart, and we observe the >same idea is now proposed in Sydney.." > >21/12/1882 Waikato Times >"The weather during the past few days has been of a most unseasonable >character. The high winds prevailing have done serious damage to orchards, >demolishing all early fruit, while the accompanying cold has deterred growth >of all kinds. The grain crops all over the district, however, are looking >well, while the weather is eminently adapted for ploughing >operations.."(high winds?..the perigee was just two days beforehand, on >19th - ed) > >19/2/1965 Star >"Science Defied >If proof were needed that science cannot control weather, it was given by >the Science Congress held in Auckland. In the printed programme the chairman >announced that mid-February had been chosen for the congress "as summer >weather, with long hours of daylight is an attraction and will, we hope, >give maximum enjoyment to the hundreds of congress visitors to Auckland." >But the congress had no sooner got under way last week than heavy rain set >in and lasted through most of the congress activities.." > >19/2/1966 Herald >"Rain Came Out Of The Blue: Forecasters Fail To Solve Weather Mystery >The Meteorological Service is completely in the dark over the reasons for >the torrential rain in the Auckland province this week. The >assistant-director in charge of forecasting, Mr I.S.Kerr, replying in >Wellington to criticism by Northland farmers about the lack of warning of >the possibility of floods, said "Even after the event we still cannot see >why the rain was so heavy. We may never know the answer.."(Perhaps 21we >do..the next day, the 20th, was New Moon -ed) > >6/3/1973 Herald, Letters to Editor >Sir,- >I was interested to see the Aboriginal dancers here on television, doing >their traditional rain dance. However, the gods did not understand that they >were in New Zealand - the rain came down in Sydney, and washed out the >interdominion trots." >H.C., Pt Chevalier > >26/4/1978 Tribune >"I will continue to pray for rain, and I am confident that if we keep >praying the rain will come".- Mr Bjelke-Peterson, Premier of Queensland. > > >CORRESPONDENCE >Hi Ken >Have got a private inquiry about the 2002 ski season. We're planning a >family sking trip down to Wanaka in mid September & was wondering >if you could shed some light on what your prediction for the South Island >Ski season is. Considering that Treble Cone was almost closed by mid -sept >in 2001 & Cardrona was just okay, while'st it was a boomer season for the >North Island. I'm really pleased with the almanac layout & its already >providing some clues to help with our farm management in 2002 >Cheers, Jeff (If it was me I'd go to Wanaka after August 1 or the 10, as >there'll be snowfalls then, no rain to wash it away, and a few days of dry >weather following.- K) > > >LINKS >http://clysmic.com/lunabar/ >This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful >information about phase, rise\set\overhead times. > >http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm >(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) >or >http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read > >+++++++++++++++++++++ >SNIPPETS STILL RELEVANT, CARRIED OVER FROM LAST EZINE > >HELLO? >According to the Metservice's own figures, but which for some strange reason >they seem to be staying quiet about, overall Auckland's 2001 year was >slightly cooler and wetter than average. No global or any other warming >occurred. Rainfall was slightly above average mainly due to a wetter May and >December. Temperatures were almost exactly average for each month, the >exceptions being August and October. > >REST OF SUMMER >For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's >conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would >also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing >cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers. Drier than average >areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All >other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. >Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in >March, so threat of drought will be absent. For most of the north, Rotorua, >Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, and Wellington, there will be mainly sunny >weather for the first two weeks of January with the exception of January >6th/7th, when thereíll be some midday rain. Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney >should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires. >Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and >below average temperatures. The first month of spring will be wetter for >most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months. > >EARTHQUAKES IN JANUARY >The potential for earthquakes will be 1st-3rd, 12th-14th, 18th and >especially 27th-30th, when NZ will be in the firing line. Watch the >newspapers then. > >EVENTS COMING >Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ(Mt Maunganui): 10th January. Dry. >The Big Day Out(January 18th): Mainly dry but possibility of light passing >showers at night. >Auckland Folk Festival, Kumeu showgrounds, 25th-28th January: First two >days: dry. Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods. Monday: same >as Sunday. >Jazz and Blues Streetfest(Mission Bay, Feb 2): dry. >Waitangi Day(February 6th, Bay of Islands); dry. > >DROUGHT >The Bay of Plenty still looks likely to be significantly drier than normal >and will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls >there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 >rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days >also see considerable sunshine hours. > >WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING >Some often shake their heads and say 30 or so years ago (1968-70) there were >more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are >correct. When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, and a >mooncycle further backcalled minimum declination, depressions stayed longer >and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, >remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods. >When, in 1996/7 the moon was at monthly northern or southern declination, >the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably >longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions >were colder because the atmosphere was thicker between the tropics, where >the moon was, and the polar regions had a relatively reduced atmosphere. As >the moon works her way up to 2005-7(the maximum declination years), our >depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms will >pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as long. >This is because at minimum declination(1996/7) the moon's movement is so >quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a >month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be >taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daliy advance northwards at >the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be >covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily >advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so. This climactic >change is barely perceptible, and unless you have kept daily records for >more than 10 years you wouldn't notice. > >ALMANAC AVAILABLE >My Weather Almanac 2002(publisher Hazard Press) should be slightly easier to >obtain because shops have restocked. You'll find daily weather predictions >two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day >of 2002. (For example the current bad weather on the West Coast is right >there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an >inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for >all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. I do sell them by mail-order >from my premises. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, >Auckland and I'll mail one immediately. Sorry folks, no credit cards. 230 >pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. > >COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY >Southerlies typically cause choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend >to blow the sea flat. JANUARY Southerlies(avoid): 16th, 24th-26th. >Northerlies(okay): 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st. > >SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL >A group of us put together a submission which we sent to the Ministry of the >Environment, urging them to consider an alternative viewpoint, which is that >the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is very shonky and mainly just a >heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, just send me a >reply to this email, simply typing in the subject box "send submission". >Share it with your friends, or anyone interested. The more people who are >informed as to what this government is hastily trying to legislate us into >before the next election, the better. > >CONTACT >Editor: Ken Ring, ph. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696 >e-mail ken at weatherman.co.nz Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, >New Zealand. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor for actions >or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information printed. This >e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely >distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized >commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2002 >www.predictweather.com ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 14:22:16 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Mon, 7 Jan 2002, michael king wrote: > Apart from heat, does anyone know what other conditions favour the > generation of dust devils? I dont' want to get into a 'mine's bigger > than your's' discussion, but the ones I saw up near Cammoweal were at > least 200 metres high and quite long lasting, and in one case, 8 or so of > them ranged across my view, seemingly in what appeared to be close to a > straight line. Now that's something I'd love to see!!! > I wondered at the time whether this alignment represented > some sort of boundary between winds of different directions or zone of > convergence or even divergence. Convergence sounds ok as this would provide additional uplift to intensify the vortex, and I'm thinking that divergence would suppress their formation. Any sea breezes in the area at the time?? And just out of interest, how strong was the wind, away from the dust devils that is, ie light and variable etc. I think the problem I had was that the wind was too strong which resulted in too much mixing of the surface layer, and so extreme (superadiabatic) temperatures near the surface could not be attained to provide strong updrafts. > Grateful to pointed in the direction of any reference material people > might know about on the subject. Just searching under yahoo gives a few references, with a good ones here: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Flagstaff/science/dustdvl.htm http://members.attcanada.ca/~stefanac/weather/dustdevils.html http://www.dri.edu/General/Newsletter/1997/winter97/WinterText96/dustdev.html A lot of references to dust devils on Mars, which I think may have been pointed out way back by someone else. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 15:04:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Ira had some brilliant dust devils up from Christmas in Swan Hill or Mildura a couple of years ago, but I can't find the link. Ira???? Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- On Mon, 7 Jan 2002, michael king wrote: > Apart from heat, does anyone know what other conditions favour the > generation of dust devils? I dont' want to get into a 'mine's bigger > than your's' discussion, but the ones I saw up near Cammoweal were at > least 200 metres high and quite long lasting, and in one case, 8 or so of > them ranged across my view, seemingly in what appeared to be close to a > straight line. Now that's something I'd love to see!!! > I wondered at the time whether this alignment represented > some sort of boundary between winds of different directions or zone of > convergence or even divergence. Convergence sounds ok as this would provide additional uplift to intensify the vortex, and I'm thinking that divergence would suppress their formation. Any sea breezes in the area at the time?? And just out of interest, how strong was the wind, away from the dust devils that is, ie light and variable etc. I think the problem I had was that the wind was too strong which resulted in too much mixing of the surface layer, and so extreme (superadiabatic) temperatures near the surface could not be attained to provide strong updrafts. > Grateful to pointed in the direction of any reference material people > might know about on the subject. Just searching under yahoo gives a few references, with a good ones here: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Flagstaff/science/dustdvl.htm http://members.attcanada.ca/~stefanac/weather/dustdevils.html http://www.dri.edu/General/Newsletter/1997/winter97/WinterText96/dustdev.htm l A lot of references to dust devils on Mars, which I think may have been pointed out way back by someone else. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 08 Jan 2002 15:23:55 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There's some on this page that may be the ones you mean Jane: http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/funnel01.htm (half way down the page) MB At 03:04 PM 8/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Afternoon all, > >Ira had some brilliant dust devils up from Christmas in Swan Hill or Mildura >a couple of years ago, but I can't find the link. > >Ira???? > >Jane ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 15:53:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Robert Goler has very kindly send some infrared images of Bernie... www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-1640.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-0240.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-0440.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-0540.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-0840.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-1040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-1140.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-1440.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-0040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-1740.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-2040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-2240.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan04-2340.gif Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 08 Jan 2002 16:21:40 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: continuing heat on the NSW North Coast Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (2nd send due to typo in first) Day 20 of the heat wave, so I've decided to find out what we've really been experiencing on the North Coast. Everyone around here has been complaining, but it's not just the hot days - the DP has been in the 19-24 range most of the days ! Figures from my screen at McLeans Ridges: 20/12 18.6 32.0 21/12 20.7 37.1 22/12 22.4 37.7 23/12 21.0 30.0 24/12 19.9 38.7 25/12 25.5 39.3 26/12 25.6 35.2 27/12 18.8 28.0 28/12 17.6 32.3 29/12 20.0 35.1 30/12 21.1 35.8 31/12 19.8 33.8 01/01 21.4 36.2 02/01 23.7 39.6 03/01 22.6 30.0 04/01 19.9 29.7 05/01 22.2 32.2 06/01 23.3 32.3 07/01 24.3 33.2 08/01 22.7 38.8 AVE 21.6 34.4 Ok, looking at nearby climate stations. I'm 13km E of the Lismore site: Dec ave 17.8 29.7 (43.0 highest Dec max recorded) Jan ave 18.8 29.8 (43.0 highest Jan max recorded) I'm 9km NW of the Alstonville site: Dec ave 18.2 26.7 (38.5 highest Dec max recorded) Jan ave 19.4 27.1 (37.2 highest Jan max recorded) So my site is almost half-way between Lismore and Alstonville. So the averages for McLeans Ridges could be: Dec ave 18.0 28.2 Jan ave 19.1 28.5 This means the maximum has been averaging over 6 degrees above normal and the minimum about 2.5 above normal - for 3 weeks. Every day except possibly the 27/12 have been above average. It also looks like those temps on 24/12, 25/12, 2/1 and today 8/1 may have produced some records at the Alstonville site. regards, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Images from 3rd January of Bernie Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 17:03:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com These are the images from the previous day - I'll put together a summary page tonight....... www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-0040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-0240.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-0440.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-0540.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-0840.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-1040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-1140.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-1440.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-1640.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-1740.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-2040.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-2240.gif www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/ntenhirJan03-2340.gif Jane +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: continuing heat on the NSW North Coast Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 16:22:55 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael, My average max at Mt. Crosby for the 15 days between Dec 20th and Jan 3rd was 37.1C which is by far the longest hot spell I have recorded in SEQ, with only a couple of days just under 35C. Jan 5th was the first day since Dec 17th with a max under 30C (29.2). Christmas was one of the hottest on record in SEQ (my temps: 39.8C, 41.2C and 40.1C for Christmas eve through Boxing day). My thermo is not screened and is an electronic type for which I have checked the calibration to be accurate at 0C. It is mounted 1m above ground in full shade with good airflow under my back deck on the SE corner, in a well treed area. Some days it reads below Amberley, other days a little above, so I am fairly confident that the result is close to reality. Yesterday reached 36.2C and today will easily beat that I imagine, so it continues! My pool temp has remained over 30C at midnight throughout. John. >snip Day 20 of the heat wave, so I've decided to find out what we've really been experiencing on the North Coast. Everyone around here has been complaining, but it's not just the hot days - the DP has been in the 19-24 range most of the days ! Figures from my screen at McLeans Ridges: 20/12 18.6 32.0 21/12 20.7 37.1 22/12 22.4 37.7 23/12 21.0 30.0 24/12 19.9 38.7 25/12 25.5 39.3 26/12 25.6 35.2 27/12 18.8 28.0 28/12 17.6 32.3 29/12 20.0 35.1 30/12 21.1 35.8 31/12 19.8 33.8 01/01 21.4 36.2 02/01 23.7 39.6 03/01 22.6 30.0 04/01 19.9 29.7 05/01 22.2 32.2 06/01 23.3 32.3 07/01 24.3 33.2 08/01 22.7 38.8 AVE 21.6 34.4 Ok, looking at nearby climate stations. I'm 13km E of the Lismore site: Dec ave 17.8 29.7 (43.0 highest Dec max recorded) Jan ave 18.8 29.8 (43.0 highest Jan max recorded) I'm 9km NW of the Alstonville site: Dec ave 18.2 26.7 (38.5 highest Dec max recorded) Jan ave 19.4 27.1 (37.2 highest Jan max recorded) So my site is almost half-way between Lismore and Alstonville. So the averages for McLeans Ridges could be: Dec ave 18.0 28.2 Jan ave 19.1 28.5 This means the maximum has been averaging over 6 degrees above normal and the minimum about 2.5 above normal - for 3 weeks. Every day except possibly the 27/12 have been above average. It also looks like those temps on 24/12, 25/12, 2/1 and today 8/1 may have produced some records at the Alstonville site. regards, Michael +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC Bernie - summary page Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 19:08:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com If you are after a quick page of thumbnails..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/tcbernie.htm Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 20:12:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The next ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday 16th February at the Pancake Parlour in Doncaster starting with breakfast at ~8.30am with videos & reports from the spring & summer (including TDU2K+1), then on to a barbeque (or stormchase) depending on the weather. Special guests will be there.......no clues. Updates to follow. PS: if any Vics got the same email more than once (or it was incorrect in some way), I apologise for the pre-Xmas computer rebuild where my address book escaped on me & I'm not sure which version I restored. If you'd like to be on the list to be notified of ASWA & Victorian events, please drop me a quick note & I'll do the correction or add your address. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 08 Jan 02 20:15:08 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: URGENT VIRUS ALERT Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Rosalina! 07 Jan 02 06:06, you wrote to All: RC> Its a cooler day (slightly) here in Brissy. Hope for some rain later. Good to hear. Summer's finally arrived here. Was 37 in Melbourne on Sunday, and there was a significant (visible) coastal inversion offshore from Port Phillip Heads. Actually, inversion conditions extended across Bass Strait, as evidenced by numerous reports of VHF propagation between Victoria and Tasmania. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 23:39:08 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: A few pics from Top End in Dec. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Here's some pictures from my December trip to Darwin and Melville Island. Nothing's really outstanding, but if you have some time to kill, have a quick browse: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/Dawex/Phase3/today.html Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 04:44:54 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: TC Bernie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane and All. >I do have an image on the other computer that I'll upload tonight that looks >like there might have been 2 separate 'identities'..... > >This is a very interesting discussion. > >Jane I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the idea two cyclone centres in close proximity as the interactive forces should seriously disrupt the rotation of both of them and there should also be clear evidence of Fujiwara type rotation of both around a common centre. I have made a satpic loop of the VIS images over the 3rd, 4th and 5th of January, and having had a good look at it, and considering the remarkably cold temperature readings posted the other day, I think there is another explanation for what is happening. I will leave the VIS animation, the individual VIS images it is made of, and a coloured multispectral animation, on my website in the http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ImagesTemp/ directory for a few days if anyone wants to have a look. The time stamps on the images in the animations are UTC, as are the names of the individual images. Jane, if you want to grab the animations and/or the images and add them to your site, please do so, as they will not be able to stay on my site for too long as I am way over my 'allowed' website size already. If you look at the images on the 3rd, you will see strong convection in the SE corner of the Gulf and another lot on the NT side of the border, and during the the day, the convection near the SE corner moves along the coast and joins with the other lot during the afternoon. This must make it a really big thunderstorm! It is probably dumping lots of rain and perhaps hail which would be cooling the area beneath it. As the cyclone circulation is directing the cooled surface winds in the area out over the quite warm water (~30C) it may be updraughting, perpetuating the thunderstorm circulation in that locality. On the morning of the 4th, the thunderstorm circulation is still there, although it is a bit further inland, and the cyclone has developed a clearly defined nearly circular Low Level Circulation Centre to the N of Mornington Is., which then moves S past Mornington Is. as the day progresses, while the thunderstorm still persists. I think the Mt Isa soundings posted show part of the key as to why this thunderstorm circulation is staying in around the same place for so long - on the one hand it had a surface flow out over the waters of the Gulf, whilst upper winds were moving more or less in the opposite direction at around the same speed, so setting up the conditions needed for the localised thunderstorm circulation, with the cooled air hitting the warm waters of the Gulf, being warmed and picking up moisture and cycling up, being blown back overland as it cooled, and dropping as rain again - if someone had a rain guage under that storm I guess it would have had incredibly high readings! By the morning of the 5th, the cyclone LLCC is overland and in closer proximity to where the persistant thunderstorm circulation was, and the stronger surface wind speed and changing wind direction has disrupted the thunderstorm sustaining mechanism, as there is no longer such a good updraught of moist air nor the balance between upper and lower winds to maintain it, and as the day progresses, you can see the disintegrating remnants of the thunderstorm upper cloud as a series of arcs retreating from the area in several directions - it looks like it could not cope with the extra wind as the cyclone approached and exploded out the top! Anyway, this is a possible explanation of the odd behaviour we are seeing in the satpics that does not require difficult to explain extra LLCC's or unexplained amounts wind shear. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 06:17:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl, what is a Fujiwara type rotation??? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- > Hi Jane and All. > > > >I do have an image on the other computer that I'll upload tonight that looks > >like there might have been 2 separate 'identities'..... > > > >This is a very interesting discussion. > > > >Jane > > > I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the idea two cyclone centres in > close proximity as the interactive forces should seriously disrupt the > rotation of both of them and there should also be clear evidence of > Fujiwara type rotation of both around a common centre. > > I have made a satpic loop of the VIS images over the 3rd, 4th and 5th of > January, and having had a good look at it, and considering the remarkably > cold temperature readings posted the other day, I think there is another > explanation for what is happening. > > I will leave the VIS animation, the individual VIS images it is made of, > and a coloured multispectral animation, on my website in the > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ImagesTemp/ directory for a few days if > anyone wants to have a look. The time stamps on the images in the > animations are UTC, as are the names of the individual images. Jane, if you > want to grab the animations and/or the images and add them to your site, > please do so, as they will not be able to stay on my site for too long as I > am way over my 'allowed' website size already. > > If you look at the images on the 3rd, you will see strong convection in the > SE corner of the Gulf and another lot on the NT side of the border, and > during the the day, the convection near the SE corner moves along the coast > and joins with the other lot during the afternoon. This must make it a > really big thunderstorm! It is probably dumping lots of rain and perhaps > hail which would be cooling the area beneath it. As the cyclone circulation > is directing the cooled surface winds in the area out over the quite warm > water (~30C) it may be updraughting, perpetuating the thunderstorm > circulation in that locality. > > On the morning of the 4th, the thunderstorm circulation is still there, > although it is a bit further inland, and the cyclone has developed a > clearly defined nearly circular Low Level Circulation Centre to the N of > Mornington Is., which then moves S past Mornington Is. as the day > progresses, while the thunderstorm still persists. I think the Mt Isa > soundings posted show part of the key as to why this thunderstorm > circulation is staying in around the same place for so long - on the one > hand it had a surface flow out over the waters of the Gulf, whilst upper > winds were moving more or less in the opposite direction at around the same > speed, so setting up the conditions needed for the localised thunderstorm > circulation, with the cooled air hitting the warm waters of the Gulf, being > warmed and picking up moisture and cycling up, being blown back overland as > it cooled, and dropping as rain again - if someone had a rain guage under > that storm I guess it would have had incredibly high readings! > > By the morning of the 5th, the cyclone LLCC is overland and in closer > proximity to where the persistant thunderstorm circulation was, and the > stronger surface wind speed and changing wind direction has disrupted the > thunderstorm sustaining mechanism, as there is no longer such a good > updraught of moist air nor the balance between upper and lower winds to > maintain it, and as the day progresses, you can see the disintegrating > remnants of the thunderstorm upper cloud as a series of arcs retreating > from the area in several directions - it looks like it could not cope with > the extra wind as the cyclone approached and exploded out the top! > > Anyway, this is a possible explanation of the odd behaviour we are seeing > in the satpics that does not require difficult to explain extra LLCC's or > unexplained amounts wind shear. > > Regards, > Carl. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: TC formation Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 06:37:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, Interesting this morning is the area north of Papua - New Guinea which has finally got the attention of JTWC this morning. The LLCC is 2.5N!! I thought that TC formation was very unlikely within 5degrees of the equator. Does anyone have any information on the potential for cyclones at these latitudes or past occurrences? http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abpwweb.txt Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 20:28:36 +0000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Norman Lynagh Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC formation X-Mailer: Turnpike (32) Version 4.00 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In message <00ff01c1987b$f979e840$0e9937cb at jane>, Jane ONeill writes >Morning all, > >Interesting this morning is the area north of Papua - New Guinea which >has finally got the attention of JTWC this morning. The LLCC is 2.5N!! >I thought that TC formation was very unlikely within 5degrees of the >equator. Does anyone have any information on the potential for cyclones >at these latitudes or past occurrences? > >http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abpwweb.txt > >Jane > Less than a couple of weeks ago a tropical cyclone intensified very rapidly to typhoon "Vamei" with max winds of 75 knots centred at 1.5N 104.6E at 1200 GMT on 27th December - yes, that's very close to Singapore. The centre tracked west across the southern tip of the Malaysian Peninsula, across the Srait of Malacca and into Sumatra. Ships at the southern end of the Strait of Malacca reported sustained winds up to 45 knots. I don't have the reference readily to hand but 30 years or so ago there was a typhoon with max winds of something like 130 knots at 3.5N somewhere SE of Guam in December. Norman. =================================================================== Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St. Giles Buckinghamshire E-mail:norman at weather-consultancy.com England =================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2002 08:02:58 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com That's when two systems in close proximity interact, usually "orbiting" each other. MB At 06:17 AM 9/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi Carl, > >what is a Fujiwara type rotation??? > >Jane >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >-------------------------------- ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2002 09:31:34 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 08 Jan 2002 22:31:34.0277 (UTC) FILETIME=[3A3D6B50:01C19894] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks Robert, Jane and Michael for that information.

Robert, checking my video last night, I noticed the winds were quite strong, perhaps moderate would not be overstating their strength and certainly at least the velocity that you experienced near Echuca last weekend.  I doubt it was a sea breeze because Cammoweal is about 400 km inland.

MK

>From: Robert Goler
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils
>Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 14:22:16 +1100
>
>On Mon, 7 Jan 2002, michael king wrote:
>
> > Apart from heat, does anyone know what other conditions favour the
> > generation of dust devils? I dont' want to get into a 'mine's bigger
> > than your's' discussion, but the ones I saw up near Cammoweal were at
> > least 200 metres high and quite long lasting, and in one case, 8 or so of
> > them ranged across my view, seemingly in what appeared to be close to a
> > straight line.
>
>Now that's something I'd love to see!!!
>
> > I wondered at the time whether this alignment represented
> > some sort of boundary between winds of different directions or zone of
> > convergence or even divergence.
>
>Convergence sounds ok as this would provide additional uplift to intensify
>the vortex, and I'm thinking that divergence would suppress their
>formation. Any sea breezes in the area at the time?? And just out of
>interest, how strong was the wind, away from the dust devils that is, ie
>light and variable etc.
>
>I think the problem I had was that the wind was too strong which resulted
>in too much mixing of the surface layer, and so extreme (superadiabatic)
>temperatures near the surface could not be attained to provide strong
>updrafts.
>
> > Grateful to pointed in the direction of any reference material people
> > might know about on the subject.
>
>Just searching under yahoo gives a few references, with a good ones here:
>
>http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Flagstaff/science/dustdvl.htm
>http://members.attcanada.ca/~stefanac/weather/dustdevils.html
>http://www.dri.edu/General/Newsletter/1997/winter97/WinterText96/dustdev.html
>
>A lot of references to dust devils on Mars, which I think may have been
>pointed out way back by someone else.
>
>
>Cheers
>
>--
>
>Robert A. Goler
>
>School of Mathematical Sciences
>Monash University
>Clayton, Vic 3800
>Australia
>
>ph. +61 3 9905 4424
>email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
>--
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2002 07:59:04 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC formation X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, we get many winter TCs in our area and they are always much closer to the equator than their summertime counterparts. Check out Mike Middlebrooke's contribution in this thread on our local forum: http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3353.html? SundayDecember3020010956pm for an explanation of how these storms form and continue to exist and how they could theoretically cross the equator. The outstanding feature of the satpics of recent typhoon Vamei was the spiralling cloudbands crossing the equator. A third of the storm was in the Southern Hemisphere while two-thirds was in the Northern Hemisphere. It blew all my long-held theories about TCs right out of the water. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Norman Lynagh To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 20:28:36 +0000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC formation > In message <00ff01c1987b$f979e840$0e9937cb at jane>, Jane ONeill > writes > >Morning all, > > > >Interesting this morning is the area north of Papua - New Guinea which > >has finally got the attention of JTWC this morning. The LLCC is > 2.5N!! > >I thought that TC formation was very unlikely within 5degrees of the > >equator. Does anyone have any information on the potential for > cyclones > >at these latitudes or past occurrences? > > > >http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abpwweb.txt > > > >Jane > > > > Less than a couple of weeks ago a tropical cyclone intensified very > rapidly to typhoon "Vamei" with max winds of 75 knots centred at 1.5N > 104.6E at 1200 GMT on 27th December - yes, that's very close to > Singapore. The centre tracked west across the southern tip of the > Malaysian Peninsula, across the Srait of Malacca and into Sumatra. > Ships > at the southern end of the Strait of Malacca reported sustained winds > up > to 45 knots. > > I don't have the reference readily to hand but 30 years or so ago there > was a typhoon with max winds of something like 130 knots at 3.5N > somewhere SE of Guam in December. > > Norman. > =================================================================== > Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy > Chalfont St. Giles > Buckinghamshire E-mail:norman at weather-consultancy.com > England > =================================================================== > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 11:35:07 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC formation Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Jane, >we get many winter TCs in our area and they are always much closer to the >equator than their summertime counterparts. >Check out Mike Middlebrooke's contribution in this thread on our local >forum: >http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/3353.html? >SundayDecember3020010956pm >for an explanation of how these storms form and continue to exist and how >they could theoretically cross the equator. >The outstanding feature of the satpics of recent typhoon Vamei was the >spiralling cloudbands crossing the equator. A third of the storm was in >the Southern Hemisphere while two-thirds was in the Northern Hemisphere. >It blew all my long-held theories about TCs right out of the water. You will find a satpic of this amazing typhoon at near maximum intensity on my webpage at http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm if you scroll down the page a little way - if you want it best get it soon as I may need to reduce the size of my website soon if my ISP gets on my case! Regards, Carl. > >Phil ><>< > >International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk >Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk >Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk >Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm > > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Norman Lynagh >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 20:28:36 +0000 >Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC formation > >> In message <00ff01c1987b$f979e840$0e9937cb at jane>, Jane ONeill >> writes >> >Morning all, >> > >> >Interesting this morning is the area north of Papua - New Guinea which >> >has finally got the attention of JTWC this morning. The LLCC is >> 2.5N!! >> >I thought that TC formation was very unlikely within 5degrees of the >> >equator. Does anyone have any information on the potential for >> cyclones >> >at these latitudes or past occurrences? >> > >> >http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abpwweb.txt >> > >> >Jane >> > >> >> Less than a couple of weeks ago a tropical cyclone intensified very >> rapidly to typhoon "Vamei" with max winds of 75 knots centred at 1.5N >> 104.6E at 1200 GMT on 27th December - yes, that's very close to >> Singapore. The centre tracked west across the southern tip of the >> Malaysian Peninsula, across the Srait of Malacca and into Sumatra. >> Ships >> at the southern end of the Strait of Malacca reported sustained winds >> up >> to 45 knots. >> >> I don't have the reference readily to hand but 30 years or so ago there >> was a typhoon with max winds of something like 130 knots at 3.5N >> somewhere SE of Guam in December. >> >> Norman. >> =================================================================== >> Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy >> Chalfont St. Giles >> Buckinghamshire E-mail:norman at weather-consultancy.com >> England >> =================================================================== >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- >> + >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >> to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >> your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- >> - > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 11:29:34 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Bernie Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane. >Hi Carl, > >what is a Fujiwara type rotation??? You will find a northern hemisphere diagram at http://rossby.meas.ncsu.edu/mesolab/SOC/chiao/rachel/coamps/talk1/sld012.htm - r otation direction is reversed in southern hemisphere. And a text description at http://www.phy.cuhk.edu.hk/gee/gee264m/Ch.T/pics/typ/fujiwara.html > >Jane >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >-------------------------------- > > > >> Hi Jane and All. >> >> >> >I do have an image on the other computer that I'll upload tonight >that looks >> >like there might have been 2 separate 'identities'..... >> > >> >This is a very interesting discussion. >> > >> >Jane >> >> >> I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the idea two cyclone centres in >> close proximity as the interactive forces should seriously disrupt the >> rotation of both of them and there should also be clear evidence of >> Fujiwara type rotation of both around a common centre. >> >> I have made a satpic loop of the VIS images over the 3rd, 4th and 5th >of >> January, and having had a good look at it, and considering the >remarkably >> cold temperature readings posted the other day, I think there is >another >> explanation for what is happening. >> >> I will leave the VIS animation, the individual VIS images it is made >of, >> and a coloured multispectral animation, on my website in the >> http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ImagesTemp/ directory for a few days >if >> anyone wants to have a look. The time stamps on the images in the >> animations are UTC, as are the names of the individual images. Jane, >if you >> want to grab the animations and/or the images and add them to your >site, >> please do so, as they will not be able to stay on my site for too long >as I >> am way over my 'allowed' website size already. >> >> If you look at the images on the 3rd, you will see strong convection >in the >> SE corner of the Gulf and another lot on the NT side of the border, >and >> during the the day, the convection near the SE corner moves along the >coast >> and joins with the other lot during the afternoon. This must make it a >> really big thunderstorm! It is probably dumping lots of rain and >perhaps >> hail which would be cooling the area beneath it. As the cyclone >circulation >> is directing the cooled surface winds in the area out over the quite >warm >> water (~30C) it may be updraughting, perpetuating the thunderstorm >> circulation in that locality. >> >> On the morning of the 4th, the thunderstorm circulation is still >there, >> although it is a bit further inland, and the cyclone has developed a >> clearly defined nearly circular Low Level Circulation Centre to the N >of >> Mornington Is., which then moves S past Mornington Is. as the day >> progresses, while the thunderstorm still persists. I think the Mt Isa >> soundings posted show part of the key as to why this thunderstorm >> circulation is staying in around the same place for so long - on the >one >> hand it had a surface flow out over the waters of the Gulf, whilst >upper >> winds were moving more or less in the opposite direction at around the >same >> speed, so setting up the conditions needed for the localised >thunderstorm >> circulation, with the cooled air hitting the warm waters of the Gulf, >being >> warmed and picking up moisture and cycling up, being blown back >overland as >> it cooled, and dropping as rain again - if someone had a rain guage >under >> that storm I guess it would have had incredibly high readings! >> >> By the morning of the 5th, the cyclone LLCC is overland and in closer >> proximity to where the persistant thunderstorm circulation was, and >the >> stronger surface wind speed and changing wind direction has disrupted >the >> thunderstorm sustaining mechanism, as there is no longer such a good >> updraught of moist air nor the balance between upper and lower winds >to >> maintain it, and as the day progresses, you can see the disintegrating >> remnants of the thunderstorm upper cloud as a series of arcs >retreating >> from the area in several directions - it looks like it could not cope >with >> the extra wind as the cyclone approached and exploded out the top! >> >> Anyway, this is a possible explanation of the odd behaviour we are >seeing >> in the satpics that does not require difficult to explain extra LLCC's >or >> unexplained amounts wind shear. >> >> Regards, >> Carl. >> >> ~~~~~~~~~~ >> Carl Smith. >> Gold Coast. >> Queensland. >> Australia. >> >> Email: carls at qldnet.com.au >> Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ >> Current Tropical Cyclone information : >> http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm >> Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : >http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm >> >> >> >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- >-- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 15:10:13 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: LR Sydney rain forecast Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Another long range weather forecaster, Cory VanPelt in the US, has stepped into the rain-for-Sydney-this-month arena. Basically his tip is for rain along the Qld E coast from the 12th to the 14th possibly reaching Sydney on the 15th, and the next likely time being the 22nd to the 25th. Full email pasted below. To keep the LR forecasts in one place for comparison, here is Ken Ring's forecast again: >Hi Carl, >Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 >best wishes >Ken >www.predictweather.com Regards, Carl. >Hi Carl, >I wanted to try my hand at forecasting for your area, even though i've >never done so before. This will be a learning experience for me as I am >still working out some things with my forecasts. My rain forecasts are >near Ken Ring's, but not quite lined up(his would probably turn out more >precise, as he's had much much more experience at lunar-forecasting than >I have, especially in that part of the world, however I want to do this >as an experiment) > >12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to >Townsville will move in Syndey direction, possibly giving a shot of rain >near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and >south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th. > >Next best chance of rain appears to me to be around the 22nd-25th of >January. > >Again, I want to see how this turns out, as it will help me in the fine >tuning of my operations, as I can test it on another part of the world >along with my target area of the U.S.(working on February now: strong >storm system showing up off the Northeastern U.S. coast February 9th.) > >Cory VanPelt ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p53-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 09 Jan 2002 18:23:25 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: LR Sydney rain forecast Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl, I am interested in this prediction. My observations over the years for the Sydney region anyway is that when we get dry, the dry continues until you get a period where absolutely no rain occurs. When it is dry and you get the odd shower in between, then often the dry continues. Now the other day as noted, we had a sudden sharp intense fall of rain. So I believe, we are on the way out of the dry. Jimmy Deguara At 03:10 PM 9/1/2002 +1000, you wrote: >Hi All. > >Another long range weather forecaster, Cory VanPelt in the US, has stepped >into the rain-for-Sydney-this-month arena. > >Basically his tip is for rain along the Qld E coast from the 12th to the >14th possibly reaching Sydney on the 15th, and the next likely time being >the 22nd to the 25th. > >Full email pasted below. > >To keep the LR forecasts in one place for comparison, here is Ken Ring's >forecast again: > > >Hi Carl, > >Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 > >best wishes > >Ken > >www.predictweather.com > >Regards, >Carl. > > >Hi Carl, > >I wanted to try my hand at forecasting for your area, even though i've > >never done so before. This will be a learning experience for me as I am > >still working out some things with my forecasts. My rain forecasts are > >near Ken Ring's, but not quite lined up(his would probably turn out more > >precise, as he's had much much more experience at lunar-forecasting than > >I have, especially in that part of the world, however I want to do this > >as an experiment) > > > >12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to > >Townsville will move in Syndey direction, possibly giving a shot of rain > >near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and > >south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th. > > > >Next best chance of rain appears to me to be around the 22nd-25th of > >January. > > > >Again, I want to see how this turns out, as it will help me in the fine > >tuning of my operations, as I can test it on another part of the world > >along with my target area of the U.S.(working on February now: strong > >storm system showing up off the Northeastern U.S. coast February 9th.) > > > >Cory VanPelt > >~~~~~~~~~~ >Carl Smith. >Gold Coast. >Queensland. >Australia. > >Email: carls at qldnet.com.au >Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ >Current Tropical Cyclone information : >http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm >Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: LR Sydney rain forecast Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2002 20:14:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It's related to the peak of the drought index that I have been measuring since about 1996. Although the index is (or was) used to measure the state of bushfire fuel, whenever it passes 130 or 140 (as it did until the latest heavy falls we just had), there's an increasing probability it will fall dramatically. This is why I think we will get substantial heavy falls developing within the next 3-6 weeks...I suspect the index will come down about 100mm or so over a 3 or 4 week period.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2002 6:23 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: LR Sydney rain forecast

Hi Carl,

I am interested in this prediction. My observations over the years for the
Sydney region anyway is that when we get dry, the dry continues until you
get a period where absolutely no rain occurs. When it is dry and you get
the odd shower in between, then often the dry continues.

Now the other day as noted, we had a sudden sharp intense fall of rain. So
I believe, we are on the way out of the dry.

Jimmy Deguara

At 03:10 PM 9/1/2002 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi All.
>
>Another long range weather forecaster, Cory VanPelt in the US, has stepped
>into the rain-for-Sydney-this-month arena.
>
>Basically his tip is for rain along the Qld E coast from the 12th to the
>14th possibly reaching Sydney on the 15th, and the next likely time being
>the 22nd to the 25th.
>
>Full email pasted below.
>
>To keep the LR forecasts in one place for comparison, here is Ken Ring's
>forecast again:
>
> >Hi Carl,
> >Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28
> >best wishes
> >Ken
> >www.predictweather.com
>
>Regards,
>Carl.
>
> >Hi Carl,
> >I wanted to try my hand at forecasting for your area, even though i've
> >never done so before. This will be a learning experience for me as I am
> >still working out some things with my forecasts. My rain forecasts are
> >near Ken Ring's, but not quite lined up(his would probably turn out more
> >precise, as he's had much much more experience at lunar-forecasting than
> >I have, especially in that part of the world,  however I want to do this
> >as an experiment)
> >
> >12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to
> >Townsville will move in Syndey direction, possibly giving a shot of rain
> >near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and
> >south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th.
> >
> >Next best chance of rain appears to me to be around the 22nd-25th of
> >January.
> >
> >Again, I want to see how this turns out, as it will help me in the fine
> >tuning of my operations, as I can test it on another part of the world
> >along with my target area of the U.S.(working on February now: strong
> >storm system showing up off the Northeastern U.S. coast February 9th.)
> >
> >Cory VanPelt
>
>~~~~~~~~~~
>Carl Smith.
>Gold Coast.
>Queensland.
>Australia.
>
>Email: carls at qldnet.com.au
>Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/
>Current Tropical Cyclone information :
>http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm
>Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 11:26:36 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, A storm chase report is available for the period 29/12 to 1/1. We had severe storms on the North Coast during 29th and 30th with some ordinary ones on the 31st and 1st. Dave Ellem wrote up his section a few days back, but it's taken me a while to get my report done and gather up all the weather data and photos. The link can be found from the Storm News index: http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/ regards, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 10:40:58 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Lightning List , Wx-Chase Subject: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I've uploaded quite a few more chase reports: Grandchester Tornado: http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/07_11_01ac.html Brisbane Pulse Storms: http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/11_11_01ac.html Darling Downs/Border Ranges Tornadic Supercell: http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/18_11_01ac.html Darling Downs Severe Squall Line (continuation of the first, some great lightning at night!) http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/18_11_01ac2.html As well as some Thunder Downunder reports from last year's 2.5 week chase: "Football on Australian Highways:" http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/25_11_01pracca.html Tornadic Millmeran Supercell (photos of the tornado, well - photo): http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/26_11_01pracca.html And a small collection of new photos: http://www.downunderchase.com/photogallery/new.html -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Gregg Ward" To: Subject: aus-wx: Thunderstorms in Palmerston North Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 17:14:15 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There has been plenty of lightning (both CC and CG) from quite a large thunderstorm complex over the Manawatu/Rangitikei area (can be seen over southern half of North Is of NZ): http://satellite.landcare.cri.nz/noaa/?history=ld10012.txt Radar image of Wellington region also shows the storm complex well, over the Manawatu region (image only available for approx 24hrs): http://www.metservice.co.nz/radar/wn_03.asp The lightning started around 14:30 and is still occurring now at 17:05. The rain has only been moderate in intensity, with no real downpours yet. Gregg Ward Palmerston North New Zealand Ph: 64-6-354 2082 (Hm) E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz ICQ: 114869387 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "dann weatherhead" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 19:42:34 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't there MB? dann +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 19:55:32 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. MB At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't there >MB? > >dann > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Victorian trough.... Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 20:28:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Jan 2002 09:30:21.0185 (UTC) FILETIME=[6C86AF10:01C199B9] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Although there is not much interest in the trough and cold front over Victoria for Friday, I wouldn't completely write it off.There is some rather dry air associated with this system and a fair bit of warming between 850hpa and 500hpa ahead of the surface trough, as this system moves east across Victoria it should get into progressively moister air thanks to a bit of a ridge off the east coast and a northeasterly drift. With a bit of heating this might be enough to kick start some thunderstorms (a bit of a wish forecast!!) mainly over eastern Victoria, although even the central district may be a possibility, keep an occasional eye on this trough especially east of a line from Echuca to Sale.. regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 20:33:46 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 10 Jan 2002 09:35:46.0602 (UTC) FILETIME=[2E7D60A0:01C199BA] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael and all. Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the circle of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- From: Michael Bath To: Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > MB > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't there > >MB? > > > >dann > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > ================================================================== > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > ================================================================== > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 21:08:29 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Did you look at the house prices too. I could sell up here in the Illawarra and buy a few acres with a better house at Glen Innes, and still have change. I also think that it would be great place to live, followed by Stanthorpe. I would lose about 200mm in rain, but double thunder days, triple hail days, and as you said pick up snow and frost too. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 20:33 Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms > Hi Michael and all. > Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the circle > of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could > settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a > backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow > shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- > From: Michael Bath > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 > to 1/1 storms > > > > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > > > > > MB > > > > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't > there > > >MB? > > > > > >dann > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > ================================================================== > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > ================================================================== > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p53-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 21:42:11 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael T, Move to Dorrigo and you will increase rainfall (giving yourself some excuses not to go to work because the road has collapsed), increase hail size and hail days The local that I spoke to suggested they had 6 ft of rain 72 inches in 4 days early last year. This damaged the road meaning they lost 4 weeks of business from no tourists. But be warned, as I am not used to these, apparently there are quite a few tree funnel web spiders.... Yikes. He didn't have to tell me that. Great to see the hard work put in these reports - Michael and Anthony!!! Jimmy Deguara At 09:08 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Did you look at the house prices too. > >I could sell up here in the Illawarra and buy a few acres with a better >house at Glen Innes, and still have change. > >I also think that it would be great place to live, followed by Stanthorpe. > >I would lose about 200mm in rain, but double thunder days, triple hail days, >and as you said pick up snow and frost too. > >Michael > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Clyve Herbert" >To: >Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 20:33 >Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 >to 1/1 storms > > > > Hi Michael and all. > > Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the >circle > > of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could > > settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a > > backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow > > shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- > > From: Michael Bath > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for >29/12 > > to 1/1 storms > > > > > > > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > > > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > MB > > > > > > > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > > > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't > > there > > > >MB? > > > > > > > >dann > > > > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > ================================================================== > > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > > ================================================================== > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "islesit" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 22:20:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Dear Jimmy, I live in Coffs Harbour just to the north east of Dorrigo. Dorrigo is on the eastern edge of the northern tablelands and part of the great dividing range. Altitude is 800 , the plateau climbs as it heads west till it gets to Ebor (about 35km). To the east of Ebor is point Lookout which is roughly 1600 metres. At round mountain just outside Ebor it is 1800 metres from memory and highest point on northern tablelands. It does get snow during winter. Now point lookout had 144 inches of rain over a 7 day period earlier this year when we had the floods. That is what the local was referring to. Best wishes Ian -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 9:42 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hi Michael T, Move to Dorrigo and you will increase rainfall (giving yourself some excuses not to go to work because the road has collapsed), increase hail size and hail days The local that I spoke to suggested they had 6 ft of rain 72 inches in 4 days early last year. This damaged the road meaning they lost 4 weeks of business from no tourists. But be warned, as I am not used to these, apparently there are quite a few tree funnel web spiders.... Yikes. He didn't have to tell me that. Great to see the hard work put in these reports - Michael and Anthony!!! Jimmy Deguara At 09:08 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Did you look at the house prices too. > >I could sell up here in the Illawarra and buy a few acres with a better >house at Glen Innes, and still have change. > >I also think that it would be great place to live, followed by Stanthorpe. > >I would lose about 200mm in rain, but double thunder days, triple hail days, >and as you said pick up snow and frost too. > >Michael > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Clyve Herbert" >To: >Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 20:33 >Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 >to 1/1 storms > > > > Hi Michael and all. > > Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the >circle > > of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could > > settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a > > backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow > > shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- > > From: Michael Bath > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for >29/12 > > to 1/1 storms > > > > > > > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > > > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > MB > > > > > > > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > > > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't > > there > > > >MB? > > > > > > > >dann > > > > > > > > >+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > ================================================================== > > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > > ================================================================== > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of >your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p53-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2002 22:44:28 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: RE: aus-wx: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com At 10:20 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >To the east of Ebor is point Lookout which is roughly >1600 metres. At round mountain just outside Ebor it is 1800 metres from >memory and highest point on northern tablelands. I have just checked - Round Mountain is listed as being 1583m and from memory, Pt Lookout was 1560 odd metres. http://www.dorrigo.com/waterfall/wfw2.html This is a nice part of the world too. Part of a big extinct volcanoe - hence the volcanic soil around Dorrigo. But yes I recall the event that caused the heavy rainfall. Quite amazing. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 08:31:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael T, Glen Innes is a beautiful town and so is Stanthorpe. Though snow is not as common there. Maybe every 4 years or so. Whereas Glen would have some snow every year or two. Another place your could consider is Guyra - Australia's highest township outside the snowies. Homes are cheap. Lower Max temps, warmer min temps than Glen. At least 2 ground settling snowfalls each year. Average 5.8 snowdays per year. Pickup another 100mm of rainfall. Closer to Armidale which is about 37km away. Cheers Sam As for Point Lookout is 1563metres and Round Mountain is 1585metres. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Thompson" To: Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 9:08 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms > Did you look at the house prices too. > > I could sell up here in the Illawarra and buy a few acres with a better > house at Glen Innes, and still have change. > > I also think that it would be great place to live, followed by Stanthorpe. > > I would lose about 200mm in rain, but double thunder days, triple hail days, > and as you said pick up snow and frost too. > > Michael > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Clyve Herbert" > To: > Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 20:33 > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 > to 1/1 storms > > > > Hi Michael and all. > > Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the > circle > > of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could > > settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a > > backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow > > shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- > > From: Michael Bath > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for > 29/12 > > to 1/1 storms > > > > > > > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > > > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > > > > > > > > > MB > > > > > > > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > > > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't > > there > > > >MB? > > > > > > > >dann > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > ================================================================== > > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > > ================================================================== > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p53-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.53] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 09:52:54 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Weather Non-related Yahoo web hosting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sorry, I know this is non weather related but those with weather related sites under yahoo/simplenet better check the conditions before paying their next payment It looks as though no such things as unlimited space 100mb and 200 odd mb is the limit anything over you have to pay $5US per 50mb per month Umm we have 800+mb Also check the bandwidth per month - we go through 6giga bytes per week which will take us over their quota Yahoo as usual is very ambiguous and sly about their offer choosing carefully not to tell you the full information....... Be very careful They also reserve the right to change the account information without notice........... ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: shot of rain... Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 09:58:18 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to >Townsville will move in Sydney direction, possibly giving a shot of rain >near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and >south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th. Could someone please explain to me what exactly is a shot of rain? These kind of vague comment forecasts make by blood boil... On less emotive issues.. I notice that the latest batch of models are suggesting increasing moisture levels in the trough over WA over the next few days. This could be well worth watching for the middle to latter part of next week, as the key ingredient missing from the past couple of systems impacting southern Australia in recent times has been moisture, and anybody living in the SE (besides Tasmania) knows how welcome rain would be.. Presently, only GASP is going for a major rain event, while the ECMWF model shows a middle level trough amplifying through WA during around the middle of next week, which COULD foreshadow significant cyclogenesis by weeks end... fingers crossed. BTW.. as for the current system, curiously the models are now suggesting the possibility of some light to moderate falls (1-20mm) in southcentral and southeast parts of Victoria over the weekend in moist unstable S to SW flow. Cheers, David +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Lindsay Smail" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: shot of rain... Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 10:22:19 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com David - Perhaps you could also investigate the ubiquitous "Mainly fine". What else can that mean but "likely shower or two" or maybe even the "shot" of rain? Maybe it should be a "spot" of rain - that would be appropriate for the last few days here. Regards, Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of David Jones Sent: Friday, 11 January 2002 8:58 AM To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Subject: aus-wx: shot of rain... >12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to >Townsville will move in Sydney direction, possibly giving a shot of rain >near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and >south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th. Could someone please explain to me what exactly is a shot of rain? These kind of vague comment forecasts make by blood boil... On less emotive issues.. I notice that the latest batch of models are suggesting increasing moisture levels in the trough over WA over the next few days. This could be well worth watching for the middle to latter part of next week, as the key ingredient missing from the past couple of systems impacting southern Australia in recent times has been moisture, and anybody living in the SE (besides Tasmania) knows how welcome rain would be.. Presently, only GASP is going for a major rain event, while the ECMWF model shows a middle level trough amplifying through WA during around the middle of next week, which COULD foreshadow significant cyclogenesis by weeks end... fingers crossed. BTW.. as for the current system, curiously the models are now suggesting the possibility of some light to moderate falls (1-20mm) in southcentral and southeast parts of Victoria over the weekend in moist unstable S to SW flow. Cheers, David +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ --- Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.292 / Virus Database: 157 - Release Date: 26/10/2001 --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.292 / Virus Database: 157 - Release Date: 26/10/2001 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian trough.... Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 11:37:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Jan 2002 00:37:59.0335 (UTC) FILETIME=[381CEB70:01C19A38] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Clyve and others,
 
You are definitely right about the dry air with surface DP's hovering between 5C and 0C (with some even dipping into the negatives).  I have a few areas in mind for today (although I won't be chasing).  One is the eastern ranges (no further N than a line from Eildon to Falls Creek to Gelantipy) and another is the SE coastal area from Wonthaggi to Wilson's Prom.  Given the steering flow, any showers or storms that develop over the ranges to the east should drift down to the coastal plains from Sale to Mallacoota.  This system should be able to pick up some mositure from bass strait as it comes through and there are currently some nice showers (possible storms) near King Island at the moment so the potential is there.  I fear the North East and North Central plains will be a tad too dry today and the air aloft will be too warm for anything to develop.
 
Incidentally, the BoM have suggested some squally winds may be associated with the change with gusts to 70km/h possible.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe squall warning issued later on for the bays and melb metro area as the front comes through.
 
Regards,
 
Macca
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 8:28 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian trough....

Hi all.
Although there is not much interest in the trough and cold front over Victoria for Friday, I wouldn't completely write it off.There is some rather dry air associated with this system and a fair bit of warming between 850hpa and 500hpa ahead of the surface trough, as this system moves east across Victoria it should get into progressively moister air thanks to a bit of a ridge off the east coast and a northeasterly drift. With a bit of heating this might be enough to kick start some thunderstorms (a bit of a wish forecast!!) mainly over eastern Victoria, although even the central district may be a possibility, keep an occasional eye on this trough especially east of a line from Echuca to Sale.. regards Clyve H.
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 11:20:23 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: shot of rain... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David and All. >>12-14:Rain along the eastern coast from Brisbane, Rockhampton to >>Townsville will move in Sydney direction, possibly giving a shot of rain >>near the 15th, with southwesterly winds 9-13, becoming lighter and >>south-southwesterly 12/13. Turning to East-southeasterly 15th/16th. > >Could someone please explain to me what exactly is a shot of rain? These >kind of vague >comment forecasts make by blood boil... I think he means a chance of some rain. A bit like "...mainly fine with the chance of a shower or two..." as I have seen frequently enough in official BoM forecasts over the years when they are having two bob each way. Regards, Carl. > >On less emotive issues.. I notice that the latest batch of models are >suggesting increasing moisture levels in the trough over WA >over the next few days. This could be well worth watching for the middle to >latter part of next week, as the key ingredient missing from the past couple >of systems impacting southern Australia in recent times has been moisture, >and anybody living in the SE (besides Tasmania) knows how welcome rain would >be.. Presently, only GASP is going for a major rain event, while the ECMWF >model shows a middle level trough amplifying through WA during around the >middle of next week, which COULD foreshadow significant cyclogenesis by >weeks end... fingers crossed. > >BTW.. as for the current system, curiously the models are now suggesting the >possibility of some light to moderate falls (1-20mm) in southcentral and >southeast parts of Victoria over the weekend in moist unstable S to SW flow. > > >Cheers, > >David > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian trough.... To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 12:32:18 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Dear Change-lings, I am analysing the 0000 UTC pressure trough (= thermal ridge) along Melbourne's longitude. A reasonable sharp SW change in the 0030 VIC AWS data occurs along the line Ballarat - Swan Hill and should arribe in Melbourne shortly. The surface winds are turning fron N to SW across this ``discontinuity.'' The 2332 UTC GMS-5 VIS image shows an initial area of cloud W of Melbourne, with the main convection/stratus following in a broad band that extends S from SW VIC. The cloud band tapers off as you go N into WC VIC. Ahead of the change there's a strong meridional dew point gradient pointing S, i.e. the coastal areas have the best surface moisture. The 2300 UTC MML sounding shows an average moisture of 3 g/kg below the mid-level cloud deck at and above ~550 hPa (5.2 km AGL). The lapse rates between 850 and 500 hPa are nearly dry adiabatic, so the dry convection might well be quite vigorous. The 23 Z sounding also shows that some cooling of the mid- and upper layers has taken place since 1100 UTC last night. One of my questions is whether the post-frontal low-level moisture insertion near the surface will be able to overcome the inversion that will separate the cool moist SW low-level flow from the overlying warm dry NW flow. The 11:47 EDT lightning tracker shows basically no avtivity in those areas where the change has already gone through, so I'd put my money on (another) mainly non-eventful change. Evaporating precip from high mid-level cloud deck will slowly moisten and cool the sounding from above, while the SW push is going to cool and moisten it from below. Cheers, Harald Andrew typed ... > You are definitely right about the dry air with surface DP's hovering = > between 5C and 0C (with some even dipping into the negatives). I have a = > few areas in mind for today (although I won't be chasing). One is the = > eastern ranges (no further N than a line from Eildon to Falls Creek to = > Gelantipy) and another is the SE coastal area from Wonthaggi to Wilson's = > Prom. Given the steering flow, any showers or storms that develop over = > the ranges to the east should drift down to the coastal plains from Sale = > to Mallacoota. This system should be able to pick up some mositure from = > bass strait as it comes through and there are currently some nice = > showers (possible storms) near King Island at the moment so the = > potential is there. I fear the North East and North Central plains will = > be a tad too dry today and the air aloft will be too warm for anything = > to develop. > > Incidentally, the BoM have suggested some squally winds may be = > associated with the change with gusts to 70km/h possible. I wouldn't be = > surprised to see a severe squall warning issued later on for the bays = > and melb metro area as the front comes through. Clyve typed earlier ... > Although there is not much interest in the trough and cold front over = > Victoria for Friday, I wouldn't completely write it off.There is some = > rather dry air associated with this system and a fair bit of warming = > between 850hpa and 500hpa ahead of the surface trough, as this system = > moves east across Victoria it should get into progressively moister air = > thanks to a bit of a ridge off the east coast and a northeasterly drift. = > With a bit of heating this might be enough to kick start some = > thunderstorms (a bit of a wish forecast!!) mainly over eastern Victoria, = > although even the central district may be a possibility, keep an = > occasional eye on this trough especially east of a line from Echuca to = > Sale.. regards Clyve H. > > ------=_NextPart_000_0028_01C19A94.490FE3E0 > Content-Type: text/html; > charset="iso-8859-1" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > > > > http-equiv=3DContent-Type> > > > > >
Clyve and others,
>
 
>
You are definitely right about the dry = > air with=20 > surface DP's hovering between 5C and 0C (with some even dipping into the = > > negatives).  I have a few areas in mind for today (although I won't = > be=20 > chasing).  One is the eastern ranges (no further N than a line from = > Eildon=20 > to Falls Creek to Gelantipy) and another is the SE coastal area from = > Wonthaggi=20 > to Wilson's Prom.  Given the steering flow, any = > showers or=20 > storms that develop over the ranges to the east should drift down = > to the=20 > coastal plains from Sale to Mallacoota.  This system = > should be=20 > able to pick up some mositure from bass strait as it comes through and = > there are=20 > currently some nice showers (possible storms) near King Island at the = > moment so=20 > the potential is there.  I fear the North East and North Central = > plains=20 > will be a tad too dry today and the air aloft will be too warm for = > anything to=20 > develop.
>
 
>
Incidentally, the BoM have suggested = > some squally=20 > winds may be associated with the change with gusts to 70km/h = > possible.  I=20 > wouldn't be surprised to see a severe squall warning issued later on for = > the=20 > bays and melb metro area as the front comes through.
>
 
>
Regards,
>
 
>
Macca
>
 
> style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: = > 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"> >
----- Original Message -----
> style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = > black">From:=20 > title=3Dmesof5 at iprimus.com.au>Clyve=20 > Herbert >
To: href=3D"mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com"=20 > title=3Daussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com = >
>
Sent: Thursday, January 10, = > 2002 8:28=20 > PM
>
Subject: aus-wx: Victorian=20 > trough....
>

>
Hi all.
>
Although there is not much interest = > in the trough=20 > and cold front over Victoria for Friday, I wouldn't completely write = > it=20 > off.There is some rather dry air associated with this system and a = > fair bit of=20 > warming between 850hpa and 500hpa ahead of the surface trough, as this = > system=20 > moves east across Victoria it should get into progressively moister = > air thanks=20 > to a bit of a ridge off the east coast and a northeasterly drift. With = > a bit=20 > of heating this might be enough to kick start some thunderstorms (a = > bit of a=20 > wish forecast!!) mainly over eastern Victoria, although even the = > central=20 > district may be a possibility, keep an occasional eye on this trough=20 > especially east of a line from Echuca to Sale.. regards Clyve=20 > H.
> > ------=_NextPart_000_0028_01C19A94.490FE3E0-- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p85-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.85] claimed to be ihug.com.au Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 13:53:21 +1100 From: Peter Creswick X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian trough.... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com AREA 30 : AREA FORECAST and TAFs AREA30 (30) ARFOR AMEND AREA FORECAST 102330 TO 111100 AREAS 30/32 AMD OVERVIEW: RIDGE YTOC/YMES 20Z, FAR E VIC 02Z. SFC TROUGH NEAR YMIA/YCTY 22Z, YDLQ/YWLP 04Z, YMAY/YMCO 10Z. TROUGH SLOPES W WITH HEIGHT AT 18500FT NEAR YREN/YPOD 05Z, ECHUCA/CAMUS 10Z. N'LY SFC FLOW TENDING GUSTY SW W OF TROUGH. ISOL SHOWERS NEAR AND W OF TROUGH ON AND S OF RANGES. DUST N OF YNRC/YMAY NEAR CHANGE. SMOKE NE OF YECH/YORB. ISOL THUNDERSTORMS EAST RANGES AFTER 05Z ALSO NEAR TROUGH, PARTICULARLY IN SW AND OVER SEA. SUBDIVISIONS: A: E OF TROUGH B: W OF TROUGH WIND: 2000 5000 7000 10000 14000 18500 A: 340/15 330/15 310/15 310/20 PS08 310/25 MS01 300/30 MS10 B: 200/25 220/30 240/35 250/35 PS05 260/50 MS03 260/60 MS11 REMARKS: 1.WIND E OF RIDGE VRB/10 BLW 7000 AND 220/20 ABV 2.WIND 10/20KNOTS STRONGER ALL LEVELS WITHIN 150NM OF TROUGH. AMD CLOUD: ISOL CB 7000/28000 WITH TSRA. SCT ST 1000/2000 AND SCT CUSC 2500/6000 W OF TROUGH AND S OF DIVIDING RANGE, BKN NEAR COAST AND ABOUT WINDWARD RANGES. SCT CU/SC 3500/5000 FAR SE SEA E OF TROUGH. SCT CU 4000/15000 NEAR TROUGH. SCT ACAS ABV 12000, BKN NEAR TROUGH. WEATHER: TSRA, SHRA, BLDU, FU VISIBILITY: 4000M BLDU/FU/TSRA, 6KM SHRA FREEZING LEVEL: 13500 DEC 12000 W OF TROUGH ICING: MOD ACAS/CU TURBULENCE: MOD CU/AC. MOD BLW 7000FT LEE OF RANGES BEC ISOL SEV NEAR AND W OF TROUGH. MOD THERMAL INLAND BLW 8000FT AFTER 00Z CRITICAL LOCATIONS: HEIGHTS ABOVE MSL KILMORE GAP: CAVOK FM04 9999 -SHRA SCT ST 1500 SCT CU 4000 SCT ACAS 12000 FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE RING 03 9669 4850 AQNH AREA QNH 04/07 AREA 30/32 E OF YSWH/YKNH/YWOG/YKII 1004, W OF YREN/YCTY/WEBS 1010, REST 1007 AREA QNH 01/04 AREA 30/32 E OF YFLI/YORB/YCOM 1007, W OF WEBS/YWBL/YMIA 1008, REST 1005 MELBOURNE FIR (YMMM) SIGMET WSAU21 AMMC 110230 YMMM SIGMET ME01 VALID 110320/110920 YMMC- MELBOURNE FIR SEV CAT FCST WITHIN 120NM OF LINE 43S143.5E 47S142E BTN FL280/380. MOV SE 10KTS. INTST NC. WSAU21 AMMC 102055 YMMM SIGMET ME01 VALID 102120/110320 YMMC- MELBOURNE FIR SEV CAT FCST WITHIN 150NM OF LINE 42S142.5E 47S142E BTN FL280/380. MOV SE 30KTS. INTST NC. BENDIGO (YBDG) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YBDG NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YBDG 110022Z 0214 02012KT CAVOK FM03 23018G32KT 9999 FEW040 FM09 23015KT CAVOK FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 35 31 27 23 Q 1003 1005 1006 1009 METAR SPECI YBDG 0235Z 33015G26KT //// 36/M06 Q1002 RMK RF00.0/000.0 BALLARAT (YBLT) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YBLT NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YBLT 102358Z 0214 23020G35KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW012 SCT030 SCT110 FM10 23014KT 9999 FEW020 BKN030 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 28 22 19 16 Q 1003 1005 1008 1009 BAIRNSDALE (YBNS) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YBNS NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YBNS 0230Z 13011KT //// 23/13 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YBNS 102352Z 0214 05012KT CAVOK FM07 26025G40KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT030 BKN120 FM06 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 23 33 28 23 Q 1005 1003 1005 1008 COLDSTREAM (YCEM) METAR METAR YCEM 0230Z 35010KT //// 33/10 Q1001 RMK RF00.0/000.0 COOMA (YCOM) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YCOM NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YCOM 0200Z 00000KT //// 29/04 Q1006 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF AMD YCOM 110029Z 0214 30015KT 9999 SMOKE FEW040 FM08 26015KT 9999 FEW045 SCT140 FM12 18012KT 9999 SCT030 BKN120 T 30 34 30 20 Q 1007 1004 1003 1004 COROWA (YCOR) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YCOR NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YCOR 110008Z 0214 29008KT CAVOK FM10 25015KT 9999 SCT040 T 33 37 34 25 Q 1005 1003 1002 1005 DENILIQUIN (YDLQ) TAF TAF YDLQ 110017Z 0214 30012KT CAVOK FM04 22018G30KT 7000 BLOWING DUST SKC FM09 22015KT CAVOK FM04 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 08 T 37 33 29 24 Q 1003 1002 1005 1007 METAR METAR YDLQ 0200Z 33014G24KT //// 38/M08 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 HAMILTON (YHML) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YHML NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YHML 0230Z 23018KT //// 19/// Q1009 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YHML 110004Z 0214 21020G30KT 9999 SCT025 SCT035 FM09 23015KT 9999 SCT025 SCT035 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 08 T 20 21 19 16 Q 1010 1012 1013 1015 HORSHAM (YHSM) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YHSM NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YHSM 110025Z 0214 23023G35KT 9999 SCT035 SCT120 FM09 23015G25KT 9999 SCT035 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 09 T 24 23 20 17 Q 1008 1009 1010 1012 METAR METAR YHSM 0230Z 22023KT //// 21/10 Q1008 RMK RF00.0/000.0 KILMORE GAP (KMG) METAR SPECI KMG 0232Z 33019G29KT //// 31/03 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 CLD:CLR BLW 125 VIS:9999 LATROBE VALLEY (YLTV) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YLTV NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YLTV 102354Z 0214 03012KT CAVOK FM05 25025G40KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT035 BKN120 FM04 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 25 31 23 19 Q 1004 1002 1005 1007 METAR METAR YLTV 0230Z 05013KT //// 23/15 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 AVALON (YMAV) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMAV NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YMAV 0230Z 26024KT //// 24/13 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 CLD:CLR BLW 125 VIS:9999 TAF TAF AMD YMAV 102346Z 0114 05013G25KT CAVOK FM02 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW015 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM01 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 27 22 21 17 Q 1002 1005 1008 1009 ALBURY (YMAY) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMAY NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YMAY 0200Z 02006KT 8000 SMOKE 32/04 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YMAY 110008Z 0214 29008KT CAVOK FM10 25015KT 9999 SCT040 T 33 37 34 25 Q 1005 1003 1002 1005 MALLACOOTA (YMCO) METAR METAR YMCO 0230Z 08015KT //// 22/16 Q1005 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YMCO 101736Z 1908 300005KT CAVOK FM23 03015G25KT CAVOK T 11 19 25 27 Q 1011 1011 1009 1005 RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMCO NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES ESSENDON (YMEN) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMEN NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF AMD YMEN 102328Z 0114 35018G30KT CAVOK FM03 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW015 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM01 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 34 29 23 17 Q 1002 1004 1007 1008 ATIS ATIS YMEN ECHO 110214 +RWY: 26 +WND: 220 MIN 20 MAX 30 MAX XW 20 +VIS: RED TO 8KM IN HZ +TMP: 27 +QNH: 1004 +MET PHEN: EXP TURB IN CCR EAST SALE (YMES) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMES NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YMES 0230Z 10011KT CAVOK 22/12 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YMES 102352Z 0214 05012KT CAVOK FM06 26025G40KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT030 BKN120 FM05 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 25 33 28 23 Q 1005 1003 1051 1008 MILDURA (YMIA) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMIA NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YMIA 0230Z 22015KT CAVOK 30/09 Q1006 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF AMD YMIA 110028Z 0114 23018G30KT 5000 BLOWING DUST SCT120 FM05 21015G25KT 8000 HAZE SCT120 FM08 21013KT CAVOK FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 08 T 30 26 23 19 Q 1007 1007 1008 1010 MOORABBIN (YMMB) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMMB NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR SPECI YMMB 0224Z 26026G37KT //// 24/14 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YMMB 102350Z 0211 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW015 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 25 21 19 17 Q 1003 1005 1007 1008 MELBOURNE (YMML) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMML NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR TTF SPECI YMML 0226Z 23022KT CAVOK 28/10 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 FM0226 23023G38KT 8000 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN HAZE SCT020 SCT050 FM0226 MOD TURB BLW 3000FT TAF TAF AMD YMML 102203Z 0024 35018G30KT CAVOK FM03 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT020 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM00 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 33 34 23 19 Q 1003 1002 1004 1006 ATIS ATIS YMML V 110239 RWY: 27 + WND: 240/20-30 MAX XW 20 KTS CLD: CAVOK + TMP: 27 + QNH: 1004 SIGWX: EXPECT TURB IN CCT AREA. PROBABLE VER WIND SHEAR. FROM 0200 TO 0400 FCST WIND AT 2000FT AGL. 340/30 KTS. FORECAST SURFACE WIND 250/25 GUSTING 37 KTS MANGALORE (YMNG) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMNG NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YMNG 0230Z 35012KT //// 36/13 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YMNG 110020Z 0214 02012KT CAVOK FM04 21020G35KT 9999 FEW040 FM09 23015KT CAVOK FM04 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 36 34 30 27 Q 1004 1002 1005 1007 POINT COOK (YMPC) TAF TAF AMD YMPC 102345Z 0114 05013G25KT CAVOK FM02 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW015 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM01 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 10 T 29 27 23 17 Q 1002 1005 1008 1006 MOUNT GAMBIER (YMTG) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YMTG 01110457 TIL 01110503 01120453 TIL 01120459 01130449 TIL 01130455 GPS RAIM UNAVBL FOR NPA METAR SPECI YMTG 0242Z 21020G31KT //// 18/07 Q1012 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF AMD YMTG 102354Z 0214 22016G28KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT020 SCT140 T 18 20 19 16 Q 1012 1012 1011 1013 NHILL (YNHL) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YNHL NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YNHL 101809Z 1908 04012KT CAVOK FM20 23020G35KT CAVOK FM00 23015G28KT 9999 SCT035 SCT120 FM20 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 17 22 23 23 Q 1003 1005 1007 1008 NARACOORTE (YNRC) TAF TAF YNRC 110017Z 0214 22016G28KT 9999 SCT020 SCT140 T 21 22 21 19 Q 1011 1012 1012 1013 METAR METAR YNRC 0300Z 21020KT //// 23/09 Q1011 RMK RF00.0/000.0 METAR YNRC 0200Z 21020KT //// 21/08 Q1010 RMK RF00.0/000.0 PHILLIP ISLAND (YPID) TAF TAF YPID 102350Z 0211 21023G38KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN FEW015 SCT050 FM10 23012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN035 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 25 21 19 17 Q 1003 1005 1007 1008 PORTLAND (YPOD) TAF TAF YPOD 110001Z 0214 21020G33KT 9999 SCT020 SCT030 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 08 T 18 19 18 15 Q 1010 1012 1013 1015 METAR SPECI YPOD 0231Z 21017G29KT //// 17/10 Q1010 RMK RF00.0/000.0 RENMARK (YREN) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YREN NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR SPECI YREN 0227Z 19020G31KT //// 26/07 Q1009 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF AMD YREN 110008Z 0214 23018G30KT CAVOK T 25 30 29 26 Q 1010 1010 1009 1011 SHEPPARTON (YSHT) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YSHT NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YSHT 0230Z 02009KT //// 35/03 Q1003 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YSHT 110013Z 0214 02012KT CAVOK FM05 22022G32KT 9999 FEW040 FM11 23015KT CAVOK FM04 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 09 T 34 38 30 24 Q 1003 1002 1005 1007 WAGGA WAGGA (YSWG) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YSWG NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YSWG 0230Z 36006KT CAVOK 33/01 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 SMOKE TAF TAF AMD YSWG 110025Z 0014 34006KT 5000 SMOKE FM03 29010KT 8000 SMOKE FEW040 FM12 25017G27KT 9999 FEW040 T 29 35 37 33 Q 1008 1005 1002 1002 SWAN HILL (YSWH) TAF TAF YSWH 110033Z 0114 23020G32KT 5000 BLOWING DUST SCT120 FM06 21015G25KT 8000 HAZE SCT120 FM09 21013KT CAVOK FM01 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 09 T 36 29 24 20 Q 1003 1005 1007 1009 STAWELL (YSWL) METAR SPECI YSWL 0223Z 19020G31KT //// 19/10 Q1007 RMK RF00.0/000.0 WARRNAMBOOL (YWBL) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YWBL NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YWBL 110002Z 0214 21022G33KT 9999 SCT020 SCT030 FM02 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT TILL 08 T 19 20 18 15 Q 1010 1012 1013 1015 METAR METAR YWBL 0230Z 23021KT //// 18/12 Q1009 RMK RF00.0/000.0 WANGARATTA (YWGT) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YWGT NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES METAR METAR YWGT 0230Z 35008KT //// 34/00 Q1004 RMK RF00.0/000.0 TAF TAF YWGT 110009Z 0211 34008KT CAVOK FM08 25015KT 9999 SCT040 T 33 37 34 25 Q 1005 1003 1002 1005 WEST SALE (YWSL) RAIM GPS RAIM PREDICTION 101401 YWSL NO GPS RAIM OUTAGES TAF TAF YWSL 102352Z 0214 05012KT CAVOK FM06 26025G40KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT030 BKN120 FM05 MOD TURB BLW 5000FT T 25 33 28 23 Q 1005 1003 1051 1008 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 13:18:57 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Pizza & Video Lunch - Brisbane Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, There's been some demand for a pizza and video lunch here - it was tentatively organised last night while out with a few people, so I thought we'd hold one tomorrow (Saturday, 12th). What? Pizza & video lunch Where? My place, 14 Kinsella St, Belmont, Brisbane (has airconditioning, beat the 40C heat!) When? 10am-2pm How much? Bring some money for pizza and drinks, cost will be divided amongst us all RSVP? Email for numbers would be appreciated (cyclone at bigpond.net.au) Non-ASWA members welcome! Please bring your photos and video along! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 14:37:06 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 to 1/1 storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Glen Innes or Tenterfield would be my picks of great places to live! AC Clyve Herbert wrote: > > Hi Michael and all. > Prior to returning south after the TDU 2001 I had a cup of tea in the circle > of stones park overlooking Glenn Innes,This was one of the places I could > settle down for awhile,the countryside looked great especially with a > backdrop of congesting cu , and with some winter frosts and the odd snow > shower,dreaming on...regards Clyve Herbert.-- Original Message ----- > From: Michael Bath > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2002 7:55 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Chase Reports & Photos -and- Chase report for 29/12 > to 1/1 storms > > > Yes plenty of land Dann, but you have to keep away from the stupid high > > prices along the coast ! Less storms there anyway. > > > > > > > > MB > > > > > > At 07:42 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > > >Excellent reports Ac & Macca, and MB & Dave. > > > > > >Thats it! I am moving to NE NSW. There is land for sale near you isn't > there > > >MB? > > > > > >dann > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > ================================================================== > > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > > ================================================================== > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 13:05:57 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: video of very close lightning bolt X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In frame 2 it looks like it is lit up by the light from a different stroke. My guess is that this particular CG was one of those pulsating ones that flashes several times very rapidly and that the branch of the stroke which hit the tree was probably not present at the first pulse but added at the second pulse. Therefore the tree was being illuminated by light from the first pulse of the stroke. On the second pulse, it got the lot! No scientific method here - just a wild guess. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Michael Bath To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2002 17:21:21 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: video of very close lightning bolt > Hi All, > > John Stevens of Gymea Bay in Sydney captured lightning hitting a tree > just > 3 metres from him on 3rd December 2001 ! > He sent me the video and I have done up a few stills and a video clip. > > http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200112-01.htm > > John was interested to know what people think is occurring in the first > 5 > stills. Frame 2 shows the trees have lit up slightly, then in frame 3 > they > are back to normal. 4 is obviously total overexposure when the > lightning > hits, then I suspect frame 5 shows the residual heat/light/flame ? in > the > tree trunk after the lightning has passed. Frames are 1/25 sec apart. > Any > thoughts? > > regards, Michael > > > ================================================================== > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > ================================================================== > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.18.245] From: "Dave Ellem" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Very wrong weather update!! Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 20:22:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 Jan 2002 09:24:38.0842 (UTC) FILETIME=[CAE309A0:01C19A81] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi!
Just a quick funny story. Watching the cricket tonight and our local TV station NBN just had a weather update with Garry Youngberry. It showed the synop. chart and what did it have on it? TC Bernie over the Gulf!! Not sure how that one happend!!! Good laugh anyway!!!
 
Dave Ellem,
Wollongbar,
Northern Rivers,
NE NSW
Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 21:18:04 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very wrong weather update!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Dave !

I saw that, the synop chart was the current one, but overlayed on the wrong sat pic I think!

Matt Smith

Dave Ellem wrote:

Hi!Just a quick funny story. Watching the cricket tonight and our local TV station NBN just had a weather update with Garry Youngberry. It showed the synop. chart and what did it have on it? TC Bernie over the Gulf!! Not sure how that one happend!!! Good laugh anyway!!! Dave Ellem,Wollongbar,Northern Rivers,NE NSW
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 15:10:29 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: very high temps NE NSW Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, The temp has peaked at 42.3 just before 3pm at my weather station on the North Coast. Evans Head was 43 at 2pm. Could be some records broken today - I know the Lismore record for January is 43 regards, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Tristram" To: Subject: aus-wx: hot Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 12:12:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com There's a pocket of bloody hot air near Coffs. My thermom. read 38 in Coffs, 42 in Bonville but only 35 at Repton where I live, as I drove home today from a hot holiday. I wonder what it's like at Bellingen or in the Orara and the Clarence!! Peter +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "macdonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: very hot at Tallai Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 15:20:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
 
It is currently at 3:15pm 39.7 degrees. The max today was 40.5 degrees.
 
When I look at Obs around Northern NSW I feel that I got off lightly. In case if no one knows .. Tallai is a rural suburb of the Gold Coast about 15 mins drive in land from the beach. This would have to be the hottest summer here since we moved here 16 years ago.
 
Cheers
Sam
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp1.ihug.co.nz: Host p102-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.102] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: aus-wx: North Island Thunderstorms Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 18:52:56 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thunderstorms are widespread across the North island again today. I went down to the Waikato for the afternoon and
encountered alot of CG lightning and torrential rain/hail. Infact I spent the afternoon being hammered. Some nice shelf
cloud ahead of the storms too.
I notice the NZ Golf Open featuring Tiger Woods was postponed today due to heavy rain. Its been an unbelievably wet summer
so far.
Thunderstorms tomorrow should be confined to central high ground.
Cheers
Steven Williams
From: "islesit" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: hot 43.9 at Coffs Habrour Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 17:13:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It was really hot here. Rose to 43.9 degrees C about 2.00pm at west Coffs Harbour. Very very hot. Luckily enough that cold change came through. Now im sure they said it was going to 33C.........? hmmmm Ian -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Peter Tristram Sent: Saturday, 12 January 2002 12:13 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: hot There's a pocket of bloody hot air near Coffs. My thermom. read 38 in Coffs, 42 in Bonville but only 35 at Repton where I live, as I drove home today from a hot holiday. I wonder what it's like at Bellingen or in the Orara and the Clarence!! Peter +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Gregg Ward" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 21:38:12 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jeff, I was just wondering if you could advise me as to where in New Zealand I could purchase the Dallas DS1820 temperature sensors. I have had a look at the Dallas Semiconductor site, but was unable to find them listed on the company web sites mentioned for NZ. Thanks Gregg Ward Palmerston North New Zealand Ph: 64-6-354 2082 (Hm) E-mail: gregg.ward at xtra.co.nz ICQ: 114869387 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jeff Northcott" To: Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 7:38 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: More Thunderstorms in Christchurch > Hi Greg, > > No more storms after this one that cleared after around 6pm. the 3:13pm > image at http://satellite.landcare.cri.nz/noaa/ shows what is probably > the storm just south of lake Elllesmere. > 45km/h southerlies were predicted for the evening but they didn't last > for long. > > A squally southerly change is predicted for this afternoon with possible > thunder storms. > It's nearly like living in the King Country again! > > Thanks for your comments on my weather station. Really should get the > barometer and sunshine sensors finished but it does most of what I want > at the moment. > > Cheers, > > Jeff > > Gregg Ward wrote: > > > > Jeff, > > > > Can you see anything of the bigger storm system further south that Steve > > described. > > > > BTW, I was impressed with the page describing your Weather Station setup, > > off of your home page. > > > > Regards > > > > Gregg > > > > -- > Homepage: http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/jeffn > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2002 22:21:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I still prefer Glen Innes over Dorrigo as Glen Innes gives you more ' out of town ' chasing options. I also think 'duelling bangos' everytime I go near Dorrigo. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jimmy Deguara" To: Sent: Thursday, 10 January 2002 22:44 Subject: RE: aus-wx: > At 10:20 PM 10/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: > >To the east of Ebor is point Lookout which is roughly > >1600 metres. At round mountain just outside Ebor it is 1800 metres from > >memory and highest point on northern tablelands. > > I have just checked - Round Mountain is listed as being 1583m and from > memory, Pt Lookout was 1560 odd metres. > > http://www.dorrigo.com/waterfall/wfw2.html > > This is a nice part of the world too. Part of a big extinct volcanoe - > hence the volcanic soil around Dorrigo. > > But yes I recall the event that caused the heavy rainfall. Quite amazing. > > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: dencot1 at aol.com Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 07:40:52 EST Subject: Re: aus-wx: Pizza & Video Lunch - Brisbane To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows AU sub 57 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Not only is the chance of Big weather in Brisy good but pizza is supplied as well .
Have fun and a slice for me . Wish we could get pizza AND weather in Vic.

Regards

Dennis Cottle .
From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: hot 43.9 at Coffs Habrour To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 13:29:39 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > It was really hot here. > > Rose to 43.9 degrees C about 2.00pm at west Coffs Harbour. Very very hot. > > Luckily enough that cold change came through. > > Now im sure they said it was going to 33C.........? hmmmm > > Ian 43.3 at the met. office, equalling the all-time record for this site. Other all-time records I know about were at Tewantin (40.7) and Tabulam (39.6). Yamba (42.5) had its second-highest on record (after 43.3 on 3/12/1913). The westerly obviously broke through to the met. office briefly, judging by the massive spike around 1500 (33 to 43 and then back to 28 in the space of a couple of hours). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 16:02:43 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Does anyone remember the details of the tornado (F2?) that damaged Footscray either in the early 1980's or '90's? (Blair?) I've heard it mentioned, and I'd like to find some more details on it. Thanks, Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Anthony Violi" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 20:18:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane Is that the one that took a roof off a hospital?I think it was a hospital,or some sort of medical practice.It was either 91 or 92, if that is in fact the one that you are thinking of.I distinctly remember damage at Footscray,and at the time the BOM were non committal as to whether in fact it was a tornado,but the news reported it as 'possibly a tornado'.Is this the one? Anthony ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 4:02 PM Subject: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request > Does anyone remember the details of the tornado (F2?) that damaged > Footscray either in the early 1980's or '90's? (Blair?) I've heard it > mentioned, and I'd like to find some more details on it. > > Thanks, > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 23:50:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Jan 2002 12:51:35.0651 (UTC) FILETIME=[08B53B30:01C19C31] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, I have a few memories of this storm but nothing as good as what I have from the last 4 years. I was coming home from a BBQ with the family that arvo/evening and remember seeing *extremely* frequent lightning down towards the city (i was in Vermont or something at the time). It was also extremely dark for the time of day too. I recall a friend saying he had 30cm hail drifts in his backyard from the storm too (in Surrey Hills). Chris Gribben may be able to help you out some more with this one though as I remember he has spoken about it to me at times. Regards, Macca ----- Original Message ----- From: Anthony Violi To: Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 8:18 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request > Hi Jane > > Is that the one that took a roof off a hospital?I think it was a hospital,or > some sort of medical practice.It was either 91 or 92, if that is in fact the > one that you are thinking of.I distinctly remember damage at Footscray,and > at the time the BOM were non committal as to whether in fact it was a > tornado,but the news reported it as 'possibly a tornado'.Is this the one? > > Anthony > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 4:02 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request > > > > Does anyone remember the details of the tornado (F2?) that damaged > > Footscray either in the early 1980's or '90's? (Blair?) I've heard it > > mentioned, and I'd like to find some more details on it. > > > > Thanks, > > > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [62.7.145.81] From: "John Roenfeldt" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 14:07:52 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 13 Jan 2002 14:12:40.0439 (UTC) FILETIME=[5C58F870:01C19C3C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane, I took those pictures of the dust devils you mention although they were on our upnaway website with belongs to both Ira and myself. They have now moved to our new website and you can find them at http://www.inflowimages.com/ChaseReports/DustDevils/dustdevils.asp I also went chasing them again a bit over a week ago but unfortunately the weather didnt co-operate. I managed to get quite a few photos which I hope to put up soon, but the quality of dust devils was not as good as the trip a few years back.. regards, John Reonfeldt ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Tuesday, January 08, 2002 4:04 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re: Dust devils > Afternoon all, > > Ira had some brilliant dust devils up from Christmas in Swan Hill or Mildura > a couple of years ago, but I can't find the link. > > Ira???? > > Jane > --------------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > --------------------------------------- > > > On Mon, 7 Jan 2002, michael king wrote: > > > Apart from heat, does anyone know what other conditions favour the > > generation of dust devils? I dont' want to get into a 'mine's bigger > > than your's' discussion, but the ones I saw up near Cammoweal were at > > least 200 metres high and quite long lasting, and in one case, 8 or so of > > them ranged across my view, seemingly in what appeared to be close to a > > straight line. > > Now that's something I'd love to see!!! > > > I wondered at the time whether this alignment represented > > some sort of boundary between winds of different directions or zone of > > convergence or even divergence. > > Convergence sounds ok as this would provide additional uplift to intensify > the vortex, and I'm thinking that divergence would suppress their > formation. Any sea breezes in the area at the time?? And just out of > interest, how strong was the wind, away from the dust devils that is, ie > light and variable etc. > > I think the problem I had was that the wind was too strong which resulted > in too much mixing of the surface layer, and so extreme (superadiabatic) > temperatures near the surface could not be attained to provide strong > updrafts. > > > Grateful to pointed in the direction of any reference material people > > might know about on the subject. > > Just searching under yahoo gives a few references, with a good ones here: > > http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Flagstaff/science/dustdvl.htm > http://members.attcanada.ca/~stefanac/weather/dustdevils.html > http://www.dri.edu/General/Newsletter/1997/winter97/WinterText96/dustdev.htm > l > > A lot of references to dust devils on Mars, which I think may have been > pointed out way back by someone else. > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 09:50:49 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Does anyone remember the details of the tornado (F2?) that damaged > Footscray either in the early 1980's or '90's? (Blair?) I've heard it > mentioned, and I'd like to find some more details on it. > > Thanks, > > Jane It was just before Christmas 1990 - from memory I think it was December 22 but I might be a day or two out either side. I remember it well because I was watching it from my grandmother's roof in Essendon (I lived in Canberra at the time and we'd just arrived on our Christmas visit), although I didn't see any funnels from that distance. There were two separate tornadoes - one in Footscray and one in Balwyn (the Balwyn one was the one that caused the building damage referred to in another post). There was a Met. Note written about it a couple of years later - there's a copy in our library. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: hot 43.9 at Coffs Habrour Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 10:51:06 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I was at Coolum and it was certainly hot there, felt like 40C+ with no seabreeze although the NW'ter felt fairly moist. A few weak thunderstorms materialised late Sat afternoon, just thundery showers really but good enough for a couple of snaps. My Mt Crosby max: 39.3C (cf Amberly 41). John. >snip > > It was really hot here. > > Rose to 43.9 degrees C about 2.00pm at west Coffs Harbour. Very very hot. > > Luckily enough that cold change came through. > > Now im sure they said it was going to 33C.........? hmmmm > > Ian 43.3 at the met. office, equalling the all-time record for this site. Other all-time records I know about were at Tewantin (40.7) and Tabulam (39.6). Yamba (42.5) had its second-highest on record (after 43.3 on 3/12/1913). The westerly obviously broke through to the met. office briefly, judging by the massive spike around 1500 (33 to 43 and then back to 28 in the space of a couple of hours). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 12:22:39 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Patterson River Web cam Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I suppose this is more for the Melbournians, but on my bike ride yesterday to Carrum, I noticed a website for a webcam at the Patterson River Boat club at: http://www.prmbclub.com.au/WEBCAM.html Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 14:05:42 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Verification Time: Carl Smith posted Ken Ring's (NZ long-range weather forecaster) rainfall prediction from early January: > Hi Carl, > Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 > best wishes > Ken > www.predictweather.com As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY Metar archive, and no rain has fallen in Sydney. I wish "Null Cases" like these would make us think twice about accepting longer-term deterministic rainfall predictions derived from a cheesy face in the sky. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "TJ" To: Subject: aus-wx: RE: waterspouts Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 15:03:52 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey all,
I am usually just a lurker on the list, but thought I would post this exciting bit of news about waterspouts!
 
TJ
 
TOP PRIORITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
at 1:40pm EST on Monday the 14th of January 2002

For the Southeast Coast district

Waterspouts have been observed associated with a line of showers moving north
through Moreton Bay.

The strength of these waterspouts is not known, however winds causing light
structural damage have been known to be associated with waterspouts in the past.

Radar shows the line of showers associated with the waterspouts has weakened.
However, waterspouts could still affect areas between about Bribie Island and
northern Moreton Island during the next hour or so.

No further warnings will be issued unless the waterspouts persist beyond this
period.

**** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 2:30pm ****

This warning is also available by telephone on 1196 for the cost of a local call
and on 1900 969 921 at a cost of around 77 cents per minute.
 
X-Originating-IP: [202.137.90.3] From: "Leslie Baxter" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 05:24:23 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 14 Jan 2002 05:24:23.0583 (UTC) FILETIME=[B9F652F0:01C19CBB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I will be there depending on cricket. If it is a one day game I'll be at the meeting but if it is a two day game, sorry I won't. Regards Les Baxter Ballarat Weather >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "Aussie-wx" >Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria Feb meeting >Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 20:12:55 +1100 > >The next ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday 16th February at the >Pancake Parlour in Doncaster starting with breakfast at ~8.30am with >videos & reports from the spring & summer (including TDU2K+1), then on >to a barbeque (or stormchase) depending on the weather. Special guests >will be there.......no clues. > >Updates to follow. > > >PS: if any Vics got the same email more than once (or it was incorrect >in some way), I apologise for the pre-Xmas computer rebuild where my >address book escaped on me & I'm not sure which version I restored. If >you'd like to be on the list to be notified of ASWA & Victorian events, >please drop me a quick note & I'll do the correction or add your >address. > >Jane > >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >-------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 16:22:47 +1100 From: Tim Grugeon User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:0.9.2) Gecko/20010726 Netscape6/6.1 (CK-APCMag) X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: continuing heat on the NSW North Coast Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
It is very interesting that NE NSW and Queensland have experienced such extreme temps. The amazing thing about the weather pattern over the last few weeks is the similarity with January 1994. In late December 1993 there were significant cold fronts hitting the SE and bringing with it snow to high grounds. Very dry and hot conditions were experienced in many areas of eastern NSW in early January 1994, similar to the conditions we have just experienced and further more extreme temperatures were being recorded in Queensland and the far NE NSW. Casino on one particular day reached 44 or 45°C.

Cheers,

Tim Grugeon
Maitland, NSW
http://www.hunterweather.com

John Woodbridge wrote:
Hi Michael,

My average max at Mt. Crosby for the 15 days between Dec 20th and Jan 3rd
was 37.1C which is by far the longest hot spell I have recorded in SEQ, with
only a couple of days just under 35C.

Jan 5th was the first day since Dec 17th with a max under 30C (29.2).
Christmas was one of the hottest on record in SEQ (my temps: 39.8C, 41.2C
and 40.1C for Christmas eve through Boxing day).

My thermo is not screened and is an electronic type for which I have checked
the calibration to be accurate at 0C. It is mounted 1m above ground in full
shade with good airflow under my back deck on the SE corner, in a well treed
area. Some days it reads below Amberley, other days a little above, so I am
fairly confident that the result is close to reality.

Yesterday reached 36.2C and today will easily beat that I imagine, so it
continues! My pool temp has remained over 30C at midnight throughout.

John.
snip

Day 20 of the heat wave, so I've decided to find out what we've really been
experiencing on the North Coast. Everyone around here has been complaining,
but it's not just the hot days - the DP has been in the 19-24 range most of
the days !

Figures from my screen at McLeans Ridges:

20/12 18.6 32.0
21/12 20.7 37.1
22/12 22.4 37.7
23/12 21.0 30.0
24/12 19.9 38.7
25/12 25.5 39.3
26/12 25.6 35.2
27/12 18.8 28.0
28/12 17.6 32.3
29/12 20.0 35.1
30/12 21.1 35.8
31/12 19.8 33.8
01/01 21.4 36.2
02/01 23.7 39.6
03/01 22.6 30.0
04/01 19.9 29.7
05/01 22.2 32.2
06/01 23.3 32.3
07/01 24.3 33.2
08/01 22.7 38.8

AVE 21.6 34.4

Ok, looking at nearby climate stations.

I'm 13km E of the Lismore site:

Dec ave 17.8 29.7 (43.0 highest Dec max recorded)
Jan ave 18.8 29.8 (43.0 highest Jan max recorded)

I'm 9k m NW of the Alstonville site:

Dec ave 18.2 26.7 (38.5 highest Dec max recorded)
Jan ave 19.4 27.1 (37.2 highest Jan max recorded)


So my site is almost half-way between Lismore and Alstonville. So the
averages for McLeans Ridges could be:

Dec ave 18.0 28.2
Jan ave 19.1 28.5


This means the maximum has been averaging over 6 degrees above normal and
the minimum about 2.5 above normal - for 3 weeks. Every day except possibly
the 27/12 have been above average. It also looks like those temps on 24/12,
25/12, 2/1 and today 8/1 may have produced some records at the Alstonville
site.

regards, Michael

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X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 15:47:40 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. >Verification Time: > >Carl Smith posted Ken Ring's (NZ long-range weather forecaster) rainfall >prediction from early January: > >> Hi Carl, >> Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 >> best wishes >> Ken >> www.predictweather.com > >As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY >Metar archive, and no rain has fallen in Sydney. I wish "Null Cases" >like these would make us think twice about accepting longer-term >deterministic rainfall predictions derived from a cheesy face in the sky. > >Harald Granted there has been no rainfall so far, and I have no idea of what Sydney's weather is today so no idea if it is even possible later today, but wouldn't it be prudent to wait until at least midnight when the day is over before making such a 'null-case' pronouncement? Also, do you apply the same criterea to BoM forecasts - i.e. a 'null-case' forecast made 36 hours or more before the time therefore invalidates any BoM forecasting method greater than 36 hours? Personally, I do not consider a (possible) miss to invalidate all of anyones work, whether professional or otherwise. Rather, I prefer to look over a period of time and see how well they do. I might point out that Ken was spot on with regards to the rain that brought the bushfires under control whilst the BoM was not getting that event correct as late as 10pm, warning of continued extreme fire danger in the face of light falls no greater than 10mm in possible thunderstorms, just before it started bucketing down over a wide area. By the criterea you apply to Ken, that would therefore invalidate all BoM forecasting methods. Just in case anyone may have forgotten, here is the relevent forecast again: >Quote from New Zealand long range weather forecaster Ken Ring's Weather >Ezine dated Jan 2 2002: > >"Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see >the end of the devastating fires." Written in the interest of keeping minds open to possibilities not (yet) incorporated into conventional forecasting methods. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 17:12:41 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Personally, I do not consider a (possible) miss to invalidate all of > anyones work, whether professional or otherwise. > > Rather, I prefer to look over a period of time and see how well they do. > Agreed. The indicator that really needs to be looked at, over a period of time, is whether the performance of a forecasting method is better than would be expected by chance. To illustrate this, if you are forecasting rain/no rain, and there is climatologically a 50% chance of rain on any given day (and your forecast reflects this), a completely random forecast will be correct 50% of the time (forecast rain and observed rain: chance = 50% x 50% = 25%; forecast no rain and observed no rain: chance = 50% x 50% = 25%). A forecasting method is of little use in this situation unless it achieves considerably better than 50% accuracy. (In an extreme case, if you forecast dry weather every day of the dry season in Darwin, you will achieve approximately 98% accuracy, but this isn't terribly useful). Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 16:35:51 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald, Presumably you should also look at all the other intervening 'dry' days and count those that produced rain as "null cases" also. What we are looking for is a hit rate much better than chance for the method to have validity. It is also worth noting that SE changes seem to arrive on a roughly 7 day cycle which often runs for many weeks before breaking. At the moment the changes are arriving on the East coast early in the week as they have been for some time. Not all changes bring rain, but many do. Strangely, these dates happen to have a curious correlation with this pattern. Hrm... John. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Harald Richter Sent: Monday, January 14, 2002 1:06 PM To: Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Verification Time: Carl Smith posted Ken Ring's (NZ long-range weather forecaster) rainfall prediction from early January: > Hi Carl, > Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 > best wishes > Ken > www.predictweather.com As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY Metar archive, and no rain has fallen in Sydney. I wish "Null Cases" like these would make us think twice about accepting longer-term deterministic rainfall predictions derived from a cheesy face in the sky. Harald +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 18:08:38 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl, > ... wouldn't it be prudent to wait until at least midnight when the day is > over before making such a 'null-case' pronouncement? Yep. Strictly we should wait until we hear the chimes at midnight, even in a case where significant rain in Sydney over the next 7-8 hours is fairly unlikely (using conventional forecasting methods). > >As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY > Also, do you apply the same criterea to BoM forecasts - i.e. a 'null-case' > forecast made 36 hours or more before the time therefore invalidates any > BoM forecasting method greater than 36 hours? _One_ example (see emphasis above) does not validate or invalidate any methodology (unless the methodology claims that it applies to every case)!! I am not attempting to invalidate Ken's methodology in a rigorous sense. Such an endeavour would indeed require much more work merely because this would be a statistical piece of work. Simply, out of the 8 predicted days of rain _since_ I read your email > > Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 we (probably) soon have the score 0/2. We could now monitor how the 20th and 24th-28th pan out. The reasons for my (strong) doubts of the validity of using the moon as the one and only rainfall forecast parameter are physical in nature. Convective rainfall, for example, is clearly controlled by factors such as moisture availablility and lapse rates. I can't see how these factors could be dominated by the moon's gravitational field. More rigorously, do a scale analysis of the momentum equations to assess the moons gravitational effects relative to the other forcing terms that accelerate/decelerate an air parcel. > Personally, I do not consider a (possible) miss to invalidate all of > anyones work, whether professional or otherwise. Likewise. > Rather, I prefer to look over a period of time and see how well they do. See above. > I might point out that Ken was spot on with regards to the rain that > brought the bushfires under control whilst the BoM was not getting that > event correct as late as 10pm, warning of continued extreme fire danger in > the face of light falls no greater than 10mm in possible thunderstorms, > just before it started bucketing down over a wide area. By the criterea you > apply to Ken, that would therefore invalidate all BoM forecasting methods. This is the reverse case of 13-14 Jan, _one_ example that worked. BTW, the BoM does have a rainfall verification scheme in operation. > Written in the interest of keeping minds open to possibilities not (yet) > incorporated into conventional forecasting methods. I am generally an advocate of keeping one's mind open to possibilities. A lack to do so has the potential of crippling growth. However, allowing _every_ conceivable possibility to remain valid until it can be rigorously refuted given a very complex physical system can be a time-consuming exercise with an extremely low probability of achieving real progress. Some sort of filter to unbounded open-mindedness is necessary. For me, the moon as the sole predictor of terrestrial rainfall is outside that filter. Thanks for your comments, Carl, Cheers, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 01:41:49 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Cc: Ken Ring X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id KAA19519 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. Harald wrote: >I wish "Null Cases" >>like these would make us think twice about accepting longer-term >>deterministic rainfall predictions derived from a cheesy face in the sky. Is it such a stretch to be open to the possibility that the Soli-Lunar cycle also has observable effects on our weather? After all, the Soli-Lunar cycle has observable infuences on the ocean tides, the spawning habits of coral and many other underwater species, the times many fish like to feed, and the growth cycle of certain flowering plants, among many other things. Cops and nurses also say that the Full Moon often coincides with an increase in criminal behaviour and hospital admissions. What is certain is that there is an easily measurable Soli-Lunar atmospheric tide. The following paragraph comes from an online training manual website for pilots at: http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section1a.html#atmospheric_tides "..The atmospheric tide is associated with lunar and solar gravitation, solar heating and resonance. The tide is not apparent in latitudes greater than 50° - 60°. The atmospheric tide is an internal gravity wave with a 12 hour frequency. The semi-diurnal (twice-daily) pressure variation is similar to the semi-diurnal gravity variations at the earth's solid surface, the solid earth being subject to tides - the solid tide. A point on the earth's surface moves up and down by as much as 50 cm, with maximum gravity occurring at 1000 and 2200 hours. In the low latitudes a semi-diurnal pressure variation is quite noticeable. Atmospheric pressure peaks at about 1000 hours and 2200 hours local solar time with minima at 1600 and 0400. The semi-diurnal pressure variation at Cairns is about 2 mb either side of the mean, i.e the pressure might be 1015 mb at 0400, 1019 mb at 1000, 1015 mb at 1600 and 1019 mb at 2200. Meteorologists adjust the daily pressure observations to remove the tide effect..." Which raises an obvious question - if the atmospheric tide effect is negligible, why is it necessary to factor it out? Such an approach may have been understandable when everything was done by hand and standardising things may have seemed a logical thing to do as it was believed apparently without adequate supporting evidence that the tidal effect was unimportant, but with the advent of super computers and sophisticated atmospheric modelling, surely it is high time this entrenched belief was challenged and tested. It only takes a little nouse and some basic astronomical knowledge to figure out that the atmospheric tide will be more pronounced when the Sun and Moon are aligned (spring tides) and less so when they are about 90 degrees to each other (neap tides). The Solar cycle includes a yearly latitudinal cycle of +-23.5 degrees corresponding to the seasons, and a yearly amplitude cycle, being closest to the Earth and therefore greater in early January and furthest so of lesser amplitude in early June. The Lunar cycle includes an approximate monthly latitudinal cycle as great as +-28.6 degrees or as small as +-17.4 degrees, depending on where it is in the nodal cycle which returns to the same position every 6798.38 days (~18.61 years), and an amplitude cycle where during it's monthly journey the Moon varies in distance by over 5 percent, a cycle which returns to the same position every 3231.50 days (~8.85 years). What can be deduced from a simple consideration of the Soli-Lunar tidal effects is that the influence on High and Low pressure systems will be most pronounced when the Moon is at or near a perigee coinciding with either a Full or New Moon, and that the amount of this effect is also dependant on the declinations of both the Sun and Moon at the time. If this theory holds any weight (and there is no good reason I can think of to dismiss it out of hand), the maximum disturbance to atmospheric equilibrium should occur when there is a perigee Moon within 3 days of a Full or New Moon at high declinations, so therefore the best set of dates to look for it in daily global meteorological records would be within 3 days of New and Full Moon phases occuring in December-January and in June-July, then sort them with regard to Lunar declination and closeness to perigee. The most disturbed weather events around the globe should be observed to occur near (probably within about 3 days after) those New or Full Moon phases in those years where there is both a perigee Moon and a large declination. It seems to me that applied research could come up with definitive set of formulae that could be factored into the currently used atmospheric forecasting models to improve their performance, and as an outgrowth of this, it is not too far fetched to come to an atmospheric tidal model good enough for long range forecasting purposes if sufficient global observational data was correlated to the main components of the Soli-Lunar atmospheric tidal cycle over a long enough period of time and utilised as a reference. Regards, Carl. >Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 15:47:40 +1000 >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >From: Carl Smith >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions >Cc: Ken_Ring >Bcc: >X-Attachments: > >Hi Harald and All. > >>Verification Time: >> >>Carl Smith posted Ken Ring's (NZ long-range weather forecaster) rainfall >>prediction from early January: >> >>> Hi Carl, >>> Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 >>> best wishes >>> Ken >>> www.predictweather.com >> >>As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY >>Metar archive, and no rain has fallen in Sydney. I wish "Null Cases" >>like these would make us think twice about accepting longer-term >>deterministic rainfall predictions derived from a cheesy face in the sky. >> >>Harald > >Granted there has been no rainfall so far, and I have no idea of what >Sydney's weather is today so no idea if it is even possible later today, >but wouldn't it be prudent to wait until at least midnight when the day is >over before making such a 'null-case' pronouncement? > >Also, do you apply the same criterea to BoM forecasts - i.e. a 'null-case' >forecast made 36 hours or more before the time therefore invalidates any >BoM forecasting method greater than 36 hours? > >Personally, I do not consider a (possible) miss to invalidate all of >anyones work, whether professional or otherwise. > >Rather, I prefer to look over a period of time and see how well they do. > >I might point out that Ken was spot on with regards to the rain that >brought the bushfires under control whilst the BoM was not getting that >event correct as late as 10pm, warning of continued extreme fire danger in >the face of light falls no greater than 10mm in possible thunderstorms, >just before it started bucketing down over a wide area. By the criterea >you apply to Ken, that would therefore invalidate all BoM forecasting >methods. > >Just in case anyone may have forgotten, here is the relevent forecast again: > >>Quote from New Zealand long range weather forecaster Ken Ring's Weather >>Ezine dated Jan 2 2002: >> >>"Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see >>the end of the devastating fires." > >Written in the interest of keeping minds open to possibilities not (yet) >incorporated into conventional forecasting methods. > >Regards, >Carl. > > > ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 03:51:20 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. >> >As _one_ example, I have looked at all entries of the 13-14 Jan 02 YSSY > >> Also, do you apply the same criterea to BoM forecasts - i.e. a 'null-case' >> forecast made 36 hours or more before the time therefore invalidates any >> BoM forecasting method greater than 36 hours? > >_One_ example (see emphasis above) does not validate or invalidate any >methodology (unless the methodology claims that it applies to every case)!! >I am not attempting to invalidate Ken's methodology in a rigorous sense. >Such an endeavour would indeed require much more work merely because >this would be a statistical piece of work. Yes, I was probably being a little harsh in my assessment of your comments - I think it was the 'cheesy face in the sky' bit that threw me furthest! >Simply, out of the 8 predicted days of rain _since_ I read your email > >> > Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 > >we (probably) soon have the score 0/2. We could now monitor >how the 20th and 24th-28th pan out. Perhaps a better way to score would be to also include the non-rain days that it does not rain on as hits and the non-rain days where it does rain as misses and cover the whole month from Jan 3 as the forecast period. The final result could then be given as a percentage. If we look at what has passed already: The time stamp of the Jan 2 ezine: >From: Ken Ring >Subject: Weather ezine January 2nd 2002 >Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 02:09:52 +1300 The forecast it contained: >"Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see >the end of the devastating fires." The time stamp of the next part of the forecast: >To: astro-weather at topica.com >From: Ken Ring >Subject: Re: [AW]: NSW fires - good rainfalls at last! >Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 14:43:16 +1300 The forecast it contained: >> > Expect rain in Sydney around January 13-14, 20, and 24-28 As it is now early on the 15th, 12 days have passed since the early hours of Jan 3. Of those, 4 were forecast to be rain days, so 8 were forecast to be no-rain days. As far as I know, the only rain has been on the night of the 6th and morning of the 7th (correct me if I am wrong - I have not looked at actual records). The score so far is 10 hits and 2 misses, so the progress score is 83.3 percent for Ken's Sydney forecasts. To be fair in any test of Ken's abilities, we should also evaluate his forecasts for other areas around the globe. If anyone gets any info that validates/contradicts the forecasts below, please post it. *********************** >From: Ken Ring >Subject: Fw: Weather ezine January 8th 2002 >Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2002 00:39:41 +1300 >Cloudy skies for London will clear by the weekend. London will see >intermittent showers on most days for the rest of the month, with dry days >likely to be 15th, 17th-21st, 26th, 29th and 31st. Snowfalls are most likely >in London around 14th, 19th, and 30th/31st. The US will remain in the grip >of a record cold wave that has reached its icy fingers deep into the south >and embraced the midwest. Some parts of Russia and Europe will be wondering >when the snow will arrive. They won't have to wait too long(see below In The >Crystal Ball). Moscow and Montreal will see snow by the end of this week. >Rain and floods are due to hit India before the end of this week. > >IN THE CRYSTAL BALL >Gazing ahead for January, these international weather events are likely. >15th: snow in Montreal >16th: winter storms sweep Britain and Ireland. >17th: earthquake activity in NZ >18th: snow in Belgrade >20th: snow in Calgary >21st: snow in Toronto >22nd: snow in Toronto and Frankfurt >24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe >25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev. >27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and >Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm. >28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago. >29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm >30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal >31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw. *********************** > >The reasons for my (strong) doubts of the validity of >using the moon as the one and only rainfall forecast parameter >are physical in nature. There is no claim that the Moon is the one and only rainfall forecast parameter, however it is claimed to be useful guide when combined with long term daily meteorological records, which are read with regard to previous similar lunar phase, nodal, and perigee cyclic states as an aid to forecasting. Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using his methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher accuracy percentage. >Convective rainfall, for example, >is clearly controlled by factors such as moisture availablility >and lapse rates. I can't see how these factors could be dominated >by the moon's gravitational field. More rigorously, do a scale >analysis of the momentum equations to assess the moons gravitational >effects relative to the other forcing terms that accelerate/decelerate an >air parcel. I intend to look into this when I have enough information and the available time to get in to it. In the meantime, the fact that the Soli-Lunar atmospheric tide is sufficient to be factored out of pressure observations (see my other reply) is enough for me to consider that there is something well worth looking into here. Even a mean diurnal 4 hPa peak-to-trough atmospheric wave must influence the intensity and direction of movement of weather systems, and being a variable amplitude and latitude modulated waveform must also have some effect the evolution of said weather systems >> Written in the interest of keeping minds open to possibilities not (yet) >> incorporated into conventional forecasting methods. > >I am generally an advocate of keeping one's mind open to possibilities. >A lack to do so has the potential of crippling growth. >However, allowing _every_ conceivable possibility to remain valid until >it can be rigorously refuted given a very complex physical system can >be a time-consuming exercise with an extremely low probability of >achieving real progress. Some sort of filter to unbounded open-mindedness >is necessary. For me, the moon as the sole predictor of terrestrial >rainfall is outside that filter. As noted above, it is not the Moon as sole predictor, but the Soli-Lunar cyclic state applied in conjunction with long term daily weather records that is the key to Ken's methods - a very different kettle of fish than just the Moon! It should also be noted that the Soli-Lunar cycle has been the basis for much of the weather forecasting done over the last few millenia, and I feel that meteorologists that dismiss it out of hand are missing a potentially valuable forecasting tool. > >Thanks for your comments, Carl, > >Cheers, Harald And thanks for your comments as well - it is only through the sharing of ideas and concepts that we can all undergo meaningful growth. Regards, Carl. > >-- >_________________________________________________________________________ >Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 >Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 >PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au >Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia >url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm >_________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Coral Sea Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 08:38:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, JTWC ( http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html ) has finally shown some interest in the Coral Sea area - specifically the Western Pacific Current Bulletin at http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/abpwweb.txt. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 19.0S0 152.5E3 OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA IN THE CORAL SEA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE. A RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND UNORGANIZED. 200MB AND UW CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:15:56 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using his > methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher > accuracy percentage. Is it documented anywhere how this figure was arrived at? Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:42:52 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > > Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using his > > methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher > > accuracy percentage. > > Is it documented anywhere how this figure was arrived at? > > Laurier > ...and, as noted elsewhere, depending on the climate 70% may not be all that impressive a figure - in a climate where 20% of days have rain (characteristic of much of the agricultural areas of eastern Australia), the expected hit rate from a random process would be 68%. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 11:40:26 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl, Blair, Laurier, and innocent by-standers, I have done some "work" on a dirty old (remarkably inadequate) point-location rainfall verification table. Four (4) "forecasters" are competing for the glory to "know" Sydney's weather best; Ken and my 3 merciless IDL random number generators. Here are the results to date (03 jan 02 -- 14 jan 02): --- Ken's rainfall forecasts for SSY for 3-31 Jan 2002: Rain days: 6-7; 13-14; 20; 24-28 Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#1 assuming 1/3 rain days 2/3 dry days: (Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 6; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-6 to mean "no rain") Rain days: 7; 9; 11; 16; 21; 23-24; 28; 30 Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#2 assuming 1/4 rain days 3/4 dry days: (Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 8; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-8 to mean "no rain") Rain days: 6; 9; 13; 19; 21; 24; 26-27; 31 Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#3 assuming 1/5 rain days 4/5 dry days: (Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 10; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-10 to mean "no rain") Rain days: 5; 9; 28; 30 The evaluation table for a YSSY rain/no rain forecast for Ken and my three random number forecasters: Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 ---------------------------------- 03 - - - - - 04 - - - - - 05 - - - - R 06 R R - R - 07 R R R - - 08 - - - - - 09 R - R R R 10 - - - - - 11 - - R - - 12 - - - - - 13 - R - R - 14 - R - - - 15 ? - - - - 16 ? - R - - 17 ? - - - - 18 ? - - - - 19 ? - - R - 20 ? R - - - 21 ? - R R - 22 ? - - - - 23 ? - R - - 24 ? R R R - 25 ? R - - - 26 ? R - R - 27 ? R - R - 28 ? R R - R 29 ? - - - - 30 ? - R - R 31 ? - - R - R = day where rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast - = day where no rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast Note: The RNG's are __not__ "tuned" to best match the days 03-14. I simply took the very first RNG run. Number of "correct" forecasts after 12 days: Ken: 9/12 RNG#1: 10/12 RNG#2: 10/12 RNG#3: 9/12 Intermediate score: random number generators 1 and 2 are leading, with Ken being en par with RNG#3. Stay tuned, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Headline: Victorian interest in weather rises!! Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:19:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, With the trough on the western side of the ranges in NSW deepening through the day, it's great (for us summer starved Vics) to read this comment in the middle of the Victorian aviation forecast.... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF COROWA/EILDON/MALLACOOTA AFTER 02Z CHIEFLY RANGES. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:59:28 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier and All. >> Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using his >> methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher >> accuracy percentage. > >Is it documented anywhere how this figure was arrived at? That is something you will have to ask Ken - you can email him directly at ken at weatherman.co.nz > >Laurier > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:29:18 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Jan 2002 01:29:18.0356 (UTC) FILETIME=[0D013D40:01C19D64] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


I'm a card carrying sceptic, but to be fair, shouldn't we have the horse called BoM (say 7 day outlooks) fronting the starter with Ken and the 3 random number generators (aka: 'control groups come placebos').  Who knows the results may be so bad (photo finish for last) that all starters in the Metorological Stakes may be sent to the knackery!

>From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
>Subject: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions
>Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 11:40:26 +1100 (EDT)
>
>
>Hi Carl, Blair, Laurier, and innocent by-standers,
>
>I have done some "work" on a dirty old (remarkably inadequate) point-location
>rainfall verification table. Four (4) "forecasters" are competing for the glory
>to "know" Sydney's weather best; Ken and my 3 merciless IDL random
>number generators.
>
>Here are the results to date (03 jan 02 -- 14 jan 02):
>
>---
>
>Ken's rainfall forecasts for SSY for 3-31 Jan 2002:
>
> Rain days: 6-7; 13-14; 20; 24-28
>
>Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#1 assuming 1/3 rain days 2/3 dry days:
>(Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 6; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-6 to mean "no rain")
>
> Rain days: 7; 9; 11; 16; 21; 23-24; 28; 30
>
>Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#2 assuming 1/4 rain days 3/4 dry days:
>(Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 8; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-8 to mean "no rain")
>
> Rain days: 6; 9; 13; 19; 21; 24; 26-27; 31
>
>Harald's IDL random number generator RNG#3 assuming 1/5 rain days 4/5 dry days:
>(Generates 29 numbers between 1 and 10; take 1,2 to mean "rain", and 3-10 to mean "no rain")
>
> Rain days: 5; 9; 28; 30
>
>
>The evaluation table for a YSSY rain/no rain forecast for Ken and my
>three random number forecasters:
>
> Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3
> ----------------------------------
> 03 - - - - -
> 04 - - - - -
> 05 - - - - R
> 06 R R - R -
> 07 R R R - -
> 08 - - - - -
> 09 R - R R R
> 10 - - - - -
> 11 - - R - -
> 12 - - - - -
> 13 - R - R -
> 14 - R - - -
> 15 ? - - - -
> 16 ? - R - -
> 17 ? - - - -
> 18 ? - - - -
> 19 ? - - R -
> 20 ? R - - -
> 21 ? - R R -
> 22 ? - - - -
> 23 ? - R - -
> 24 ? R R R -
> 25 ? R - - -
> 26 ? R - R -
> 27 ? R - R -
> 28 ? R R - R
> 29 ? - - - -
> 30 ? - R - R
> 31 ? - - R -
>
>R = day where rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast
>- = day where no rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast
>
>Note: The RNG's are __not__ "tuned" to best match the days 03-14.
> I simply took the very first RNG run.
>
>
>Number of "correct" forecasts after 12 days:
>
> Ken: 9/12
> RNG#1: 10/12
> RNG#2: 10/12
> RNG#3: 9/12
>
>Intermediate score: random number generators 1 and 2 are leading,
>with Ken being en par with RNG#3.
>
>Stay tuned, Harald
>
>--
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501
>Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660
>PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au
>Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
>url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
>_________________________________________________________________________
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 11:17:25 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Blair and All. >> >> > Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using his >> > methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher >> > accuracy percentage. >> >> Is it documented anywhere how this figure was arrived at? >> >> Laurier >> >...and, as noted elsewhere, depending on the climate 70% may not be >all that impressive a figure - in a climate where 20% of days have rain >(characteristic of much of the agricultural areas of eastern Australia), >the expected hit rate from a random process would be 68%. > >Blair Doesn't the BoM claim about 70 percent accuracy? How do you arrive at 68% from a random process? Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 13:19:49 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Doesn't the BoM claim about 70 percent accuracy? I'm referring here to yes/no forecasts (e.g. rain/no rain). The accuracy achievable depends a lot on what you are trying to forecast - whether it's a yes/no forecast, the value of a variable (and if so, the allowable tolerance - e.g. frequency with which forecast temperature is within 1/2/3/5 degrees). A '% accurate' number is pretty meaningless unless the definition of 'accurate' is defined. The situation is also blurred if your forecast is for a region rather than a single point - if you are forecasting that rain is 'indicated' for a region and claim a success if rain is recorded anywhere within the region, then your percentage of forecasts which register forecast rain/observed rain will increase substantially (the downside is that the percentage of events with forecast no rain/ observed no rain will go down). > How do you arrive at 68% from a random process? > If the random process has rain on 20% of days and the climatological mean is 20%, then the random process will succeed in the following cases: Observed rain - 20% of time in 20% of these cases random process will predict rain therefore observed rain/forecast rain occurs (20% x 20%) = 4% of time Observed no rain - 80% of time - in 80% of these cases random process will predict no rain, therefore observed no rain/forecast no rain occurs (80% x 80%) = 64% of time which gives you the following set of results: Forecast rain/observed rain 4% Forecast no rain/observed no rain 64% Total correct forecasts 68% Forecast rain/observed no rain 16% Forecast no rain/observed rain 16% Total incorrect forecasts 32% It's fairly easy to adapt these numbers to a climatological percentage other than 20%. Note that, in this situation, you will achieve 80% accuracy by forecasting every day to be dry, but this is not particularly useful. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 14:00:46 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Michael, LOL! This really is a most entertaining discussion. Looking at some of the figures being bandied about by Blair and others, plus given that Australia is the driest continent on Earth, we could just about go for a permanent Dry forecast or to reach 100% accuracy just go with the ever popular "Mostly fine with a chance of a shower". John. >snip -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of michael king Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 11:29 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions I'm a card carrying sceptic, but to be fair, shouldn't we have the horse called BoM (say 7 day outlooks) fronting the starter with Ken and the 3 random number generators (aka: 'control groups come placebos'). Who knows the results may be so bad (photo finish for last) that all starters in the Metorological Stakes may be sent to the knackery! +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 15:09:42 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Folks, As of 11:51 am today Ken and the 3 merciless Random Number Generators took a collective blow with none of them having success. It rained at YSSY, despite 4 "no rain" forecasts. This translates the scores along to RNG#1: 10/13 (= "76.9%") RNG#2: 10/13 Ken: 9/13 (= "69.2%") RNG#3: 9/13 Stay tuned for further updates, Harald PS: E VIC and extreme SE NSW are experiencing those electrical thingies over the Ranges; it's been a long time, what were they called again, ahh, lightning... -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:13:22 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com This has become an incredibly interesting thread. As one who was scientifically trained, I remember I used to laugh at all the old farmers who dutifully looked up the phases of the moon to decide when to plant; I used to think they were stuck back in some sort of astrologically based fairy-tales. When I came to Asia I would marvel that so many of the Chinese would plan their lives - at least important things like weddings - by the lunar calendar which is very widely used in this region. Many of our annual public holidays here are based on significant lunar calendar dates, two very significant ones being "Tuen Ng Jit" or the fifth day of the fifth lunar month which is related to the end of winter and the start of summer, and "Jung Chau Jit" or "mid-Autumn Festival" on the fifteenth day of the eighth lunar month which is related to the end of summer and the beginning of winter. The locals here seem to be able to count days before or after these two festivals and then proceed to tell you a prediction such as "On Saturday 15th June 2002 there will be total overcast and general cloudiness with periods of drizzly rain in the morning, the sun will break through for short periods from about 09:30, and from lunch time onwards it will be hot and humid and sunny." The amazing thing is, that on the few occasions I have written such a prediction down, it has turned out to be 100 percent accurate. (The quotation above is not an actual one - it is just typical of the sort of things that are said if you ask one of these old folks). I don't know how they do it. The other amazing thing is that the scientists at the HKO (Hong Kong Observatory) pass all this stuff off as outdated folkloric nonsense, yet their scientific forecasts are no more accurate than BoM, NWS or any other "official" forecasters around the world. This strange ability seems to require generations to have lived in the local area. People whose families have migrated from some other part of China cannot tell you about the local weather here, but they can tell you exactly what the weather will do in the village from which their ancestors came. It is absolutely related to the lunar calendar and varies from one lunar month to the next, so there must be some annual factors that they are applying as well. I would love to know how they arrive at their forecasts, but when I enquire I am told that it is too difficult to translate into English and that you have to inherit it from your ancestors. So I don't know. They seem to have a skill that actually works but they are unable or unwilling to pass it on. I await with much interest the competition between Ken and Harald's RNGs. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Carl Smith To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:59:28 +1000 Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions > Hi Laurier and All. > > >> Ken claims a 70 percent forecasting accuracy within +-24 hours using > his > >> methods, and many of his mainly rural clients give him a far higher > >> accuracy percentage. > > > >Is it documented anywhere how this figure was arrived at? > > That is something you will have to ask Ken - you can email him directly > at > ken at weatherman.co.nz > > > > >Laurier > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Long-Term Deterministic Rain Predictions Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 16:24:53 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Also of course, 4 x 7 days equals the lunar cycle. Spooky huh. John >snip Hi Harald, Presumably you should also look at all the other intervening 'dry' days and count those that produced rain as "null cases" also. What we are looking for is a hit rate much better than chance for the method to have validity. It is also worth noting that SE changes seem to arrive on a roughly 7 day cycle which often runs for many weeks before breaking. At the moment the changes are arriving on the East coast early in the week as they have been for some time. Not all changes bring rain, but many do. Strangely, these dates happen to have a curious correlation with this pattern. Hrm... John. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 17:08:06 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Storms in NE NSW/SE QLD 16/01/02 (and other districts) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Alright - who's responsible for ordering in the Victorian coldies!? Although they shouldn't be sneezed at, looking at the current situation, SE QLD and NE NSW folk might want to enjoy this next storm situation as it might be the last one we get for a while (unless you hop on the bus to Thargomindah...) as a Quidge looks set to give us a few days (weeks...) of coastal showers, although inland NSW/QLD/Victoria should enjoy some toasty warm weather! It looks like a rather dynamic thunderstorm setup in the NE quarter of NSW and SE QLD districts tonight and tomorrow. The upper level trough looks to amplify over the mid-north coast region tonight and be at its strongest tomorrow morning. The upper trough will be moving over the Sydney and Hunter region overnight, I would not rule out the chance of severe storms (more so hail) overnight at all. AVN has the 500mb temps getting down to a whopping -19C just to the NW Sydney 4am tomorrow morning...dlldih ldshoif pihtpo dfgodhd (hang on while I pick my jaw up from the floor so I can talk again) - ah, that's better! AVN has -2 to -4 LIs tonight, moving NE overnight, getting down to -6 to -8 over the midnorth coast tomorrow morning, no doubt as a result of the cold air meeting the moister coastal regions. It won't be overly warm, so hail looks likely - but the upper levels will be sufficiently cold to produce storms in the southeasterly stream which will be the main feature of this all. Unfortunately (for all the storm buffs), the upper trough will probably move off the coast too early - but it'll still leave some of it's legacy over NE NSW and SE QLD, and I wouldn't rule out severe convection continuing through into the afternoon in the Northern Rivers/SE Coast areas. The trough will run through from the Central Highlands and Coalfields district down into the upper end of the mid-north coast tomorrow, so I think along this line will have a chance of storms - but higher in SE QLD/NE NSW - the upper level temperatures certainly helping the cause. Shear is not all that bad either, at 850mb - 10-15kn NW to SW winds over much of the region, not too bad from SE at the surface (granted it's veering rather than backing). At 700mb - 20-25kn SW winds over much of the region, tapering off ever so slightly in SE QLD - fairly light in central districts of QLD however. 500mb has widepsread 35-40knot WSW winds over SE QLD/NE NSW - not bad given the close proximity of the upper level trough. At 300mb, there's a 65-60kn jet running through, increasing to 70-75 knots during the day, right over SE QLD/NE NSW once again. Storms may end up moving quite quickly too due to the relatively strong windshear throughout the upper atmosphere! -36/-37C at 300mb, dropping down towards -40C at 300mb in NE NSW also has been thrown in for our storm viewing enjoyment. Should be an interesting day, I would even be wondering about the possibility of tornadoes due to the dynamic upper atmosphere - unfortunately I'm working (effectively, 6am-5pm tomorrow), so that guarantees a good day already just about! Any other thoughts/opinions? -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aus-wx: Victoria Outlook Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 18:49:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well with the last crappy (well below average) day just about past us it is time for the Vics to look forward to some more seasonable weather. Depending on which model you look at we could be in for some very interesting weather. The most likely scenario and the one favoured by EC and NGP at this stage is for a gradual warming trend as the high pressure system in the TAsman slowly becomes dominate. This will see a period of fine and settle weather up till the weekend with temps going pass 30 on Saturday. A trough is expected to to move across the state on Sunday and generate some storms. During this period a weak, fairly inactive trough will be over the inland. Now onto GASP. For the last day or so GASP has been going for a very interesting scenario over Vic from the weekend. It has the trough deepenening over Vic on Sunday with it now remaining basically over or to the west of Vic until Wednesday next week!! This deep trough is forecast to drag some very warm air in from the north. Thicknesses over Vic are expected to be 776+ by Monday next week and remaining that way through until wednesday when they are progged to be 580.2 over NW Vic. 850 temps are expected to rise above 20 in Melb from Monday, be about 25 on Tues and I would expect 27 judging by the thicknesses on weds. This is big heat stuff, 40C temps if those values come off. With the trough triggering instability (50+ TT's) it may well be my dream period of 40C temps with storms But as my mummy once told me never trust a model past day 4. GASP may well be on the pot again but my heart sure is hoping it comes off. Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [210.49.121.190] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Headline: Victorian interest in weather rises!! Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 19:59:00 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 15 Jan 2002 08:59:00.0813 (UTC) FILETIME=[DFCD6FD0:01C19DA2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day Jane and everyone, That is encouraging, however that low cloud was a shocker today, where is that sun. Looking interesting over the weekend, Sunday the pick, hot ahead of thundery change...how thundery well who knows. Ciao Karl >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "Aus Wx" >Subject: aus-wx: Headline: Victorian interest in weather rises!! >Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 12:19:32 +1100 > >Afternoon all, > >With the trough on the western side of the ranges in NSW deepening through >the day, it's great (for us summer starved Vics) to read this comment in >the >middle of the Victorian aviation forecast.... > > >ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF COROWA/EILDON/MALLACOOTA AFTER 02Z >CHIEFLY RANGES. > >Jane >--------------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >--------------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Join the world’s largest e-mail service with MSN Hotmail. http://www.hotmail.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Few bangs Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 20:49:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Few bangs here just after 6pm but is mostly to the SE of here. I have the westend edge over my house and clear blue sky everywhere but to the SE. Have the Americans delared this a No-rain zone! :-)
Lame joke....
I have had 4.2mm so far.....
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Andrew Godsman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Few bangs Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 22:18:00 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
We had a great little surprise fall last night, awoke to 11mm in the guage at 5am this morning. As I type we're getting a decent amount of CC lightning and that beautiful rumbling thunder that goes on and on and .... Last check we'd had almost another 10m in the guage, which will at least give us around 32mm so far this month, from 4 rain days now.
 
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
North Wollongong
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Few bangs

Few bangs here just after 6pm but is mostly to the SE of here. I have the westend edge over my house and clear blue sky everywhere but to the SE. Have the Americans delared this a No-rain zone! :-)
Lame joke....
I have had 4.2mm so far.....
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 21:48:54 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all - my sister rang me tonight from Gerringong to report a severe hail storm that hit there about 8.50pm or so tonight.
 
Anyone with some reports. If Michael T can investigate, I will give you her number.
 
Rgds, Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Few bangs

We had a great little surprise fall last night, awoke to 11mm in the guage at 5am this morning. As I type we're getting a decent amount of CC lightning and that beautiful rumbling thunder that goes on and on and .... Last check we'd had almost another 10m in the guage, which will at least give us around 32mm so far this month, from 4 rain days now.
 
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
North Wollongong
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Few bangs

Few bangs here just after 6pm but is mostly to the SE of here. I have the westend edge over my house and clear blue sky everywhere but to the SE. Have the Americans delared this a No-rain zone! :-)
Lame joke....
I have had 4.2mm so far.....
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Weather Stations - Penrith Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 01:16:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all.
 
A new weather station found online for Penrith.. 
 
 
Dave
Bathurst.
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Rainfall - upto 1am Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 01:27:31 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI..
 
Listed below is rainfall upto 1am this morning.
 
Bankstown 31.4 mm
Bega  27.0
Braidwood 21.8
Cantebury 29
Homebush 32.2
Horsely Park 22.6
Kiama 31.0
Lucas Heights 13.2
Merimbula 24.6
Moss Vale 26.4
Nowra 32.2
Penrith 25.6
Pt Perpendicular AWS 41.6
Sydney 22.4
Ulladulla 31.2
Wollongong 20.6
 
Dave
 
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms in NE NSW/SE QLD 16/01/02 (and other districts) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 11:38:26 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 00:40:36.0800 (UTC) FILETIME=[6A08EC00:01C19E26] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Supercell. Although your outlook and teeth spitting is pretty good I have a sneaky suspicion that the off shore Quidge may not be as dominant due to high relative sea surface temps, although it does look as if a more seasonable easterly set up will tend to prevail. .best wishes Clyve H.....p.s. you didn't mention you had false teeth before,, ----- Original Message ----- From: Anthony Cornelius To: Australian Weather Mailing List Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 6:08 PM Subject: aus-wx: Storms in NE NSW/SE QLD 16/01/02 (and other districts) > Hi all, > > Alright - who's responsible for ordering in the Victorian coldies!? > Although they shouldn't be sneezed at, looking at the current situation, > SE QLD and NE NSW folk might want to enjoy this next storm situation as > it might be the last one we get for a while (unless you hop on the bus > to Thargomindah...) as a Quidge looks set to give us a few days > (weeks...) of coastal showers, although inland NSW/QLD/Victoria should > enjoy some toasty warm weather! > > It looks like a rather dynamic thunderstorm setup in the NE quarter of > NSW and SE QLD districts tonight and tomorrow. The upper level trough > looks to amplify over the mid-north coast region tonight and be at its > strongest tomorrow morning. The upper trough will be moving over the > Sydney and Hunter region overnight, I would not rule out the chance of > severe storms (more so hail) overnight at all. AVN has the 500mb temps > getting down to a whopping -19C just to the NW Sydney 4am tomorrow > morning...dlldih ldshoif pihtpo dfgodhd (hang on while I pick my jaw up > from the floor so I can talk again) - ah, that's better! AVN has -2 to > -4 LIs tonight, moving NE overnight, getting down to -6 to -8 over the > midnorth coast tomorrow morning, no doubt as a result of the cold air > meeting the moister coastal regions. It won't be overly warm, so hail > looks likely - but the upper levels will be sufficiently cold to produce > storms in the southeasterly stream which will be the main feature of > this all. > > Unfortunately (for all the storm buffs), the upper trough will probably > move off the coast too early - but it'll still leave some of it's legacy > over NE NSW and SE QLD, and I wouldn't rule out severe convection > continuing through into the afternoon in the Northern Rivers/SE Coast > areas. The trough will run through from the Central Highlands and > Coalfields district down into the upper end of the mid-north coast > tomorrow, so I think along this line will have a chance of storms - but > higher in SE QLD/NE NSW - the upper level temperatures certainly helping > the cause. > > Shear is not all that bad either, at 850mb - 10-15kn NW to SW winds over > much of the region, not too bad from SE at the surface (granted it's > veering rather than backing). At 700mb - 20-25kn SW winds over much of > the region, tapering off ever so slightly in SE QLD - fairly light in > central districts of QLD however. 500mb has widepsread 35-40knot WSW > winds over SE QLD/NE NSW - not bad given the close proximity of the > upper level trough. At 300mb, there's a 65-60kn jet running through, > increasing to 70-75 knots during the day, right over SE QLD/NE NSW once > again. Storms may end up moving quite quickly too due to the relatively > strong windshear throughout the upper atmosphere! -36/-37C at 300mb, > dropping down towards -40C at 300mb in NE NSW also has been thrown in for > our storm viewing enjoyment. > > Should be an interesting day, I would even be wondering about the > possibility of tornadoes due to the dynamic upper atmosphere - > unfortunately I'm working (effectively, 6am-5pm tomorrow), so that > guarantees a good day already just about! > > Any other thoughts/opinions? > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (fwd) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:34:31 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >From B.Trewin at bom.gov.au Wed Jan 16 12:22 EST 2002 Received: from jetstream.ho.bom.gov.au (jetstream.ho.BoM.GOV.AU [134.178.5.1]) by atlas.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au (8.9.3/8.9.1) with ESMTP id MAA25443 for ; Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:22:33 +1100 (EST) Received: by jetstream.ho.BoM.GOV.AU with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) id ; Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:15:20 +1100 Message-ID: From: Blair Trewin To: BOM Climate Discussion Cc: "'blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au'" Subject: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 12:15:19 +1100 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Length: 837 Just spotted this on the ABC website: Stanthorpe gets the hots for cold record The big cow, peanut and pineapple may soon be overshadowed by a giant thermometer in Stanthorpe, in south-east Queensland. The Stanthorpe Chamber of Commerce is looking for a sponsor to set up the tourist attraction to recognise the coldest town in the state. Chamber of Commerce chairman Vic Pennisi says the project would encourage more motorists to stop in Stanthorpe. "What we'd like to do is have something that's a substantial structure that looks like a thermometer and where the bulb is at the bottom we'd have a cut out for people to put their head in and take a photo and on one side an electronic screen that says the coldest this year has been 'this' and maybe on the other side the minimum is 'this' and the current temperature is 'this'." +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nathan Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: 1st Decent overnight Gully wind hit my area on a foothill of the season. Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 11:52:11 +1030 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
 
It seems that after midnight to early morning we had some decent gully wind with gusting to 20-25 knots. Top gust was 28 knots recorded on Davis WMII. It was bit windy at times. So this is the first decent gully wind of the season. Better late than never. Was not happened since November 2001. Also it has effected other area as well like Parafield Airport as well. Noarlunga has it for 2 nights this week.
 
From Nathan.
Bring it on!!!
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: upper low NW Vic. Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 11:57:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 01:00:02.0287 (UTC) FILETIME=[20B81FF0:01C19E29] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
There seems to be little interest in the upper low west of Mildura,it looks a little lonely so I thought I would give it a mention, seems to be drifting east northeast along the tail of stronger upper westerlies (above 300hpa) may trigger a few storms over south-western NSW today. It will be interesting to see if it maintains its identity over the next two days, if so this upper system may interact with higher moisture levels further east along the central NSW coast. Perhaps though if all the Victorians shout load enough we can get this upper system to stall over central and western Vic,still dreaming...regards Clyve H.
Subject: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms To: synoptic_discussion at bom.gov.au (BOM Synoptic Discussion Group) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:33:08 +1100 (EDT) Cc: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com More on storms ... Without having examined the details of the 15/11Z-Now data, the cold pool that crossed the E VIC ranges yesterday might also have something to do with the current convection in the Coffs Harbour / Grafton area. Potent storms with reflectivities beyond 55 dBZ and good lightning rates are in progress. The 23Z MOR sounding to the WNW sports -14C at 500 hPa; from memory that's about 8 C colder than a day ago. Some decent deeper (~100 mb+) moisture of 10-12 g/kg has also returned to the area over the recent days. The 16/01 UTC surface obs show a broad cyclonic surface circulation in the Coffs Harbour area - convectively forced or pre-existing? Does anyone here do surface streamline analyses? Planting a vaguely easterly surface flow below the 23Z MOR sounding yields 40+ knots of deep layer shear, enough to support supercells. The latest Coffs radar (02 UTC) shows some suspicious-looking large cells on top and west of Grafton. NSW, have you got more? I shall subside again, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [144.138.56.2] From: "Kevin Phyland" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Persistence Forecasting etc... Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:54:02 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 02:54:03.0321 (UTC) FILETIME=[0E4B1290:01C19E39] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi every1, Have been reading the Lunar/Solar forecasters v. the rest of the world thread with interest! Back when I was trained in Melbourne (more years ago than I can believe) we always referred to something known as Persistence Forecasting. Based purely on statistics, a forecast for tomorrow being the same as today (in Melbourne) was about 66% accurate. Similarly a forecast for next Wednesday being the same as this Wednesday was of about the same accuracy. As has already been pointed out, such accuracy is only "useful" in a statistical way...i.e. over a long period of time (years probably) these forecasts will in hindsight prove to be right about two times out of three...not useful for the one-third of the times when it pisses rain when you forecast fine or vice-versa. Keeping tabs on any string of forecasts would involve location-specific, temperature-specific and significant weather specific forecasts. Without (at least) these three parameters being vetted any comparisons between anybody's forecasts seem a bit pointless. I've never been a big fan of lunar influences on weather (possibly through ignorance...which I'm sure will be corrected soon!) as I still recall old cockies like my grandfather telling me crap such as it never rains on a full moon etc... (For those about to go tonto at that comment I'm pretty sure it's a full moon over the entire Earth at the same time so it's bound to be raining somewhere, right?) Agreed, neap and spring tides to change according to the position in the sky of the Moon...does it's realtive distance (which also changes considerably) also affect it? I suppose it does. As a physics teacher I'm less inclined to think it affects the much smaller (relatively-speaking) mass of the atmosphere over a given point than the mass of water... Just my two cents worth. Cheers, Kevin from Wycheproof. P.S. Warming up here...about 28 C and looking much warmer for the wekend! Here's hoping that lame-looking trough does stick around west of here Clyve! :)) _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 13:48:20 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 02:48:21.0072 (UTC) FILETIME=[424C0500:01C19E38] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



 

This big concept has much more potential - Have often thought Canberra could have the big bureaucrat, standing astride the Federal Highway, at the entrance to the National Capital, briefcase in hand, in a dark suit, with spectacles off, the face depicting a thoughtful, intelligent look, accentuated with one arm of the glasses in the 70 metre high public servant's mouth.

>

>Just spotted this on the ABC website:
>
>Stanthorpe gets the hots for cold record
>
>The big cow, peanut and pineapple may soon be overshadowed by a giant
>thermometer in Stanthorpe, in south-east Queensland.
>
>The Stanthorpe Chamber of Commerce is looking for a sponsor to set up the
>tourist attraction to recognise the coldest town in the state.
>
>Chamber of Commerce chairman Vic Pennisi says the project would encourage
>more motorists to stop in Stanthorpe.
>
>"What we'd like to do is have something that's a substantial structure that
>looks like a thermometer and where the bulb is at the bottom we'd have a cut
>out for people to put their head in and take a photo and on one side an
>electronic screen that says the coldest this year has been 'this' and maybe
>on the other side the minimum is 'this' and the current temperature is
>'this'."
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com.
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From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" Subject: RE: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:01:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com RE: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms

Am I completely off track with this thinking, but does your comments possibly suggest the beginnings of an ECL at Coffs?? I've no real idea of the broader synoptic situation at present as I haven't seen a weather report in the media or on the net in the last four days.

BTW, getting a nice on-shore flow of showers down here at Wollongong after plenty of flash bang stuff last night. 21.0mm in my guage until 6am this morning and hopefully a bit more since. This will almost have us back on track for our monthly average for Jan of 115mm.

Cheers
Andrew Godsman

-----Original Message-----
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au [mailto:h.richter at bom.gov.au]
Sent: Wednesday, 16 January 2002 1:33 PM
To: synoptic_discussion at bom.gov.au
Cc: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms



More on storms ...

Without having examined the details of the 15/11Z-Now data,  the
cold pool that crossed the E VIC ranges yesterday might also have
something to do with the current convection in the Coffs Harbour /
Grafton area.  Potent storms with reflectivities beyond 55 dBZ
and good lightning rates are in progress.  The 23Z MOR sounding
to the WNW sports -14C at 500 hPa;  from memory that's about 8 C
colder than a day ago.  Some decent deeper (~100 mb+) moisture
of 10-12 g/kg has also returned to the area over the recent days.

The 16/01 UTC surface obs show a broad cyclonic surface circulation
in the Coffs Harbour area - convectively forced or pre-existing?
Does anyone here do surface streamline analyses?

Planting a vaguely easterly surface flow below the 23Z MOR sounding
yields 40+ knots of deep layer shear,  enough to support supercells.
The latest Coffs radar (02 UTC) shows some suspicious-looking
large cells on top and west of Grafton.  NSW, have you got more?

I shall subside again,
Harald

--
_________________________________________________________________________
Harald Richter                               ph:          +61 3 9669 4501
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre        fax:         +61 3 9669 4660
PO Box 1289K                                 email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm
_________________________________________________________________________
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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
 with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

EOM

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From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:14:37 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 03:15:42.0900 (UTC) FILETIME=[14E71740:01C19E3C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Harald, The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy rainfall has been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the same one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. Chasers - get on it! Macca ----- Original Message ----- From: Harald Richter To: BOM Synoptic Discussion Group Cc: Aussie Weather Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 1:33 PM Subject: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > More on storms ... > > Without having examined the details of the 15/11Z-Now data, the > cold pool that crossed the E VIC ranges yesterday might also have > something to do with the current convection in the Coffs Harbour / > Grafton area. Potent storms with reflectivities beyond 55 dBZ > and good lightning rates are in progress. The 23Z MOR sounding > to the WNW sports -14C at 500 hPa; from memory that's about 8 C > colder than a day ago. Some decent deeper (~100 mb+) moisture > of 10-12 g/kg has also returned to the area over the recent days. > > The 16/01 UTC surface obs show a broad cyclonic surface circulation > in the Coffs Harbour area - convectively forced or pre-existing? > Does anyone here do surface streamline analyses? > > Planting a vaguely easterly surface flow below the 23Z MOR sounding > yields 40+ knots of deep layer shear, enough to support supercells. > The latest Coffs radar (02 UTC) shows some suspicious-looking > large cells on top and west of Grafton. NSW, have you got more? > > I shall subside again, > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:46:09 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand > this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. > > ------_=_NextPart_001_01C19E3A.0D4AC420 > Content-Type: text/plain > > Am I completely off track with this thinking, but does your comments possibly suggest the beginnings of an ECL at Coffs?? I've no real idea of the broader synoptic situation at present as I haven't seen a weather report in the media or on the net in the last four days. No sign of one yet, but both LAPS and MESOLAPS are going for very heavy rain (areas of 100+ mm) in NE NSW/SE Queensland over the next two days. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:48:34 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >
>



>
>
>
>

 

>

This big concept has much more potential - Have often thought Canberra could have the big bureaucrat, standing astride the Federal Highway, at the entrance to the National Capital, briefcase in hand, in a dark suit, with spectacles off, the face depicting a thoughtful, intelligent look, accentuated with one arm of the glasses in the 70 metre high public servant's mouth.

>

>

Strangely enough, a family acquaintance proposed doing exactly that in the 1980's (from memory the structure was to be at the intersection of the Hume and Federal Highways and its centrepiece was to be a giant filing cabinet wrapped up in red tape). I don't think the idea got very far. Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: RE: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:50:40 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Andrew wondered ... > Am I completely off track with this thinking, but does your comments possibly > suggest the beginnings of an ECL at Coffs?? I doubt we'll see an ECL developing out of this. I am not even 100% sure that I am seeing a genuine surface circulation near the (now weakening) deep convection around Coffs/Grafton. One issue is that the seabreeze introduces an easterly component to the surface flow everywhere. However, easterlies penetrate further inland to the S, while westerlies make it nearly to the coast near Brisbane. If this is a "closed" surface circulation, most of it might be offshore. The models make nothing out of this one, which could mean many different things ... Harald PS: With rain reported at YSSY today, merciless Random Number Generator #1 surges ahead and takes the lead. The latest score is n RNG#1: 11/13 RNG#2: 10/13 Ken: 9/13 RNG#3: 9/13 -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 14:59:50 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy rainfall has > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the same > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > Chasers - get on it! If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar reflectivity to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer nicely isolated (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the developing bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and dewpoints alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the lightning tracker picks up nothing from the beast ... More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through Woolgoolga N of Coffs. Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:21:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Harald wrote: Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... and Jane replied: For exactly the same reason that I have 8 IE windows running in between Quality Assurance documents & sales reports ......... and slowly coming to the realisation that I think we should all move somewhere to the far northeast where they have summer........... I've also just realised that if someone asks you "What are you doing?" and you reply "Looking for Elvis...", they don't think you are crazy anymore.. ...back to the action Jane A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy rainfall has > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the same > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > Chasers - get on it! If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar reflectivity to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer nicely isolated (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the developing bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and dewpoints alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the lightning tracker picks up nothing from the beast ... More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through Woolgoolga N of Coffs. Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:17:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 04:18:57.0249 (UTC) FILETIME=[EA82CD10:01C19E44] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com And now we move to QLD for the latest episode of "are there ever storms in Victoria?"......boy oh boy this is tough sitting here in Melbourne. STW now out for SEQld. Cells developing rapidly and reaching max intensity. A nice cell near Caboolture ATM is looking quite tasty. Reports of gusts to 50knts and large tree branches down from the bow that hit Lismore. Macca ----- Original Message ----- From: Harald Richter To: Aussie Weather Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 2:59 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > > > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy rainfall has > > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the same > > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > > > Chasers - get on it! > > If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar reflectivity > to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer nicely isolated > (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the developing > bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and dewpoints > alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the lightning tracker > picks up nothing from the beast ... > > More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through Woolgoolga > N of Coffs. > > Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... > > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:40:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 04:41:11.0027 (UTC) FILETIME=[05812C30:01C19E48] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Latest NSW STA includes large hail from Armidale and severe winds from Lismore and Cape Byron.......... "the hits just keep on coming" - Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men. As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total flop. Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone sense any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland trough produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have us some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even had much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may be too warm in the upper levels. The ranges probably pose the best option at this stage from about Saturday onwards (although I should probably look a tad closer at things as there is probably a slight chance of something as early as Friday). Later on in the weekend (being Sunday) things *could* get more interesting but I'm not going to say much yet until I see how things shape up over the next 48hrs. I guess we shouldn't ask for too much.....we are going to get the warmer temps no matter what so asking for those AND storms is probably a bit much. Macca (suffering severe SDS) ----- Original Message ----- From: Andrew To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:17 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > And now we move to QLD for the latest episode of "are there ever storms in > Victoria?"......boy oh boy this is tough sitting here in Melbourne. STW now > out for SEQld. Cells developing rapidly and reaching max intensity. A nice > cell near Caboolture ATM is looking quite tasty. > > Reports of gusts to 50knts and large tree branches down from the bow that > hit Lismore. > > Macca > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Harald Richter > To: Aussie Weather > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 2:59 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > > > A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > > > > > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy rainfall > has > > > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the > same > > > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > > > > > Chasers - get on it! > > > > If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar > reflectivity > > to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer > nicely isolated > > (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the > developing > > bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and > dewpoints > > alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the > lightning tracker > > picks up nothing from the beast ... > > > > More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through Woolgoolga > > N of Coffs. > > > > Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... > > > > Harald > > > > -- > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:41:56 +1100 From: Tim Grugeon User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:0.9.4) Gecko/20011128 Netscape6/6.2.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can remember stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los Angeles when I was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the 'gateway' to the Death Valley National Park and it boasted to having the largest thermometer in the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and better). But anyway, it apperantly did wonders for the town's economy as many tourist stop just to check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what attracts people to places. :o)

-Tim

Blair Trewin wrote:
<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>This big concept has much more potential - Have often thought Canberra could have the big bureaucrat, standing astride the Federal Highway, at the entrance to the National Capital, briefcase in hand, in&nbsp;a dark suit, with spectacles off, the face&nbsp;depicting&nbsp;a thoughtful, intelligent&nbsp;look, accentuated with one arm of the glasses in the 70 metre high public servant's mouth.</P>
<P>&gt; </P>

Strangely enough, a family acquaintance proposed doing exactly that
in the 1980's (from memory the structure was to be at the intersection
of the Hume and Federal Highways and its centrepiece was to be a giant
filing cabinet wrapped up in red tape). I don't think the idea got
very far.

Blair
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To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p115-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.115] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:22:23 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In that case, Tim, I will build a tornado model here in Schofields and that would put us on the map - the largest tornado in the world! Weather related. It is bloody cold with showery activity around but not persistent. We had some good lightning flashes last night and some deep rolling thunder. I did not go to sleep until about 1am. Jimmy Deguara At 03:41 PM 16/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can remember >stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los Angeles when I >was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the 'gateway' to the Death >Valley National Park and it boasted to having the largest thermometer in >the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and better). But anyway, it >apperantly did wonders for the town's economy as many tourist stop just to >check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what attracts people to places. :o) > >-Tim > >Blair Trewin wrote: >>> >>>
>>>



>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>

 

>>>

This big concept has much more potential - Have often thought >>>Canberra could have the big bureaucrat, standing astride the Federal >>>Highway, at the entrance to the National Capital, briefcase in hand, >>>in a dark suit, with spectacles off, the face depicting a >>>thoughtful, intelligent look, accentuated with one arm of the >>>glasses in the 70 metre high public servant's mouth.

>>>

>

>> >> >>Strangely enough, a family acquaintance proposed doing exactly that >>in the 1980's (from memory the structure was to be at the intersection >>of the Hume and Federal Highways and its centrepiece was to be a giant >>filing cabinet wrapped up in red tape). I don't think the idea got >>very far. >> >>Blair >> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ >> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail >> to:majordomo at world.std.com >> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your >> message. >> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ >> >> ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:23:50 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I remember a couple of years ago when Anthony Cornelius went to the states with his mum, they stopped at the big thermoometer i think, or drove past it :)

Matt

Tim Grugeon wrote:

Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can remember stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los Angeles when I was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the 'gateway' to the Death Valley National Park and it boasted to having the largest thermometer in the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and better). But anyway, it apperantly did wonders for the town's economy as many tourist stop just to check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what attracts people to places. :o)

-Tim

Blair Trewin wrote:

<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P><BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>&nbsp;</P>
<P>This big concept has much more potential - Have often thought Canberra could have the big bureaucrat, standing astride the Federal Highway, at the entrance to the National Capital, briefcase in hand, in&nbsp;a dark suit, with spectacles off, the face&nbsp;depicting&nbsp;a thoughtful, intelligent&nbsp;look, accentuated with one arm of the glasses in the 70 metre high public servant's mouth.</P>
<P>&gt; </P>

Strangely enough, a family acquaintance proposed doing exactly that
in the 1980's (from memory the structure was to be at the intersection
of the Hume and Federal Highways and its centrepiece was to be a giant 
filing cabinet wrapped up in red tape). I don't think the idea got
very far.

Blair
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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


X-Originating-IP: [198.142.179.21] From: "Dave Ellem" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:21:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 05:21:56.0533 (UTC) FILETIME=[B723C650:01C19E4D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi!! I've just been sitting S of Lismore with MB!!!!! WOW!!!! Absolutley torrential rain and some very strong gusts (yes, the car rocked whilst videoing!!). Minor flash flooding around Lismore and many power outages have been reported. We saw a number of fire engines and police with lights flasing and power crews darting around the place. One particulaly interesting report is of 3 power poles near Nimbin (just N of Lismore) being blown down by the winds!!! Those things aren't light!! Anyway, I'm sure MB will fill in the gaps very soon. Dave Ellem Wollongbar, Northern Rivers, NE NSW (gee I love this place!) ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andrew" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:40 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > Latest NSW STA includes large hail from Armidale and severe winds from > Lismore and Cape Byron.......... > > "the hits just keep on coming" - Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men. > > As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total flop. > Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone sense > any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland trough > produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have us > some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even had > much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may be > too warm in the upper levels. The ranges probably pose the best option at > this stage from about Saturday onwards (although I should probably look a > tad closer at things as there is probably a slight chance of something as > early as Friday). Later on in the weekend (being Sunday) things *could* get > more interesting but I'm not going to say much yet until I see how things > shape up over the next 48hrs. I guess we shouldn't ask for too much.....we > are going to get the warmer temps no matter what so asking for those AND > storms is probably a bit much. > > Macca > (suffering severe SDS) > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Andrew > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:17 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > And now we move to QLD for the latest episode of "are there ever storms in > > Victoria?"......boy oh boy this is tough sitting here in Melbourne. STW > now > > out for SEQld. Cells developing rapidly and reaching max intensity. A > nice > > cell near Caboolture ATM is looking quite tasty. > > > > Reports of gusts to 50knts and large tree branches down from the bow that > > hit Lismore. > > > > Macca > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Harald Richter > > To: Aussie Weather > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 2:59 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > > > > > > > A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > > > > > > > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy > rainfall > > has > > > > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably the > > same > > > > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > > > > > > > Chasers - get on it! > > > > > > If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar > > reflectivity > > > to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer > > nicely isolated > > > (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the > > developing > > > bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and > > dewpoints > > > alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the > > lightning tracker > > > picks up nothing from the beast ... > > > > > > More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through > Woolgoolga > > > N of Coffs. > > > > > > Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... > > > > > > Harald > > > > > > -- > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 > 4501 > > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 > 4660 > > > PO Box 1289K email: > h.richter at bom.gov.au > > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:26:17 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > > --------------080505010708040105030106 > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed > Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit > > Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can > remember stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los > Angeles when I was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the > 'gateway' to the Death Valley National Park and it boasted to having the > largest thermometer in the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and > better). But anyway, it apperantly did wonders for the town's economy as > many tourist stop just to check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what > attracts people to places. :o) > > -Tim Barstow, California. Not quite sure what their claim to climatic notoriety is, as there are several other towns in the Desert Southwest that are hotter (such as Yuma, Arizona), but, as you say, anything to attract the tourists.... At least they're not erecting the thermometer in Cloncurry :-) Blair +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:03:07 +1100 From: John Colquhoun X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (WinNT; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: H.Richter at BoM.GOV.AU CC: BOM Synoptic Discussion Group , Aussie Weather Subject: aus-wx: Re: [synoptic_discussion] Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Concerning the NE NSW storms, a supercell has been tracking from near Grafton to Lismore over the past hour or so. There is a mesoscale low pressure centre in the area. The Grafton radar gives the best pictures. John Colquhoun NSWRO Harald Richter wrote: > > More on storms ... > > Without having examined the details of the 15/11Z-Now data, the > cold pool that crossed the E VIC ranges yesterday might also have > something to do with the current convection in the Coffs Harbour / > Grafton area. Potent storms with reflectivities beyond 55 dBZ > and good lightning rates are in progress. The 23Z MOR sounding > to the WNW sports -14C at 500 hPa; from memory that's about 8 C > colder than a day ago. Some decent deeper (~100 mb+) moisture > of 10-12 g/kg has also returned to the area over the recent days. > > The 16/01 UTC surface obs show a broad cyclonic surface circulation > in the Coffs Harbour area - convectively forced or pre-existing? > Does anyone here do surface streamline analyses? > > Planting a vaguely easterly surface flow below the 23Z MOR sounding > yields 40+ knots of deep layer shear, enough to support supercells. > The latest Coffs radar (02 UTC) shows some suspicious-looking > large cells on top and west of Grafton. NSW, have you got more? > > I shall subside again, > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p115-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.115] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:34:37 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: [synoptic_discussion] Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Welcome to the list John, Great to have you a part of the aussie-weather list. Could you please tell others briefly about yourself. I hope you enjoy the forum. Jimmy Deguara At 03:03 PM 16/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Concerning the NE NSW storms, a supercell has been tracking from near >Grafton to Lismore over the past hour or so. There is a mesoscale low >pressure centre in the area. The Grafton radar gives the best pictures. > >John Colquhoun >NSWRO > >Harald Richter wrote: > > > > More on storms ... > > > > Without having examined the details of the 15/11Z-Now data, the > > cold pool that crossed the E VIC ranges yesterday might also have > > something to do with the current convection in the Coffs Harbour / > > Grafton area. Potent storms with reflectivities beyond 55 dBZ > > and good lightning rates are in progress. The 23Z MOR sounding > > to the WNW sports -14C at 500 hPa; from memory that's about 8 C > > colder than a day ago. Some decent deeper (~100 mb+) moisture > > of 10-12 g/kg has also returned to the area over the recent days. > > > > The 16/01 UTC surface obs show a broad cyclonic surface circulation > > in the Coffs Harbour area - convectively forced or pre-existing? > > Does anyone here do surface streamline analyses? > > > > Planting a vaguely easterly surface flow below the 23Z MOR sounding > > yields 40+ knots of deep layer shear, enough to support supercells. > > The latest Coffs radar (02 UTC) shows some suspicious-looking > > large cells on top and west of Grafton. NSW, have you got more? > > > > I shall subside again, > > Harald > > > > -- > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:51:16 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 05:55:42.0744 (UTC) FILETIME=[6EDB0980:01C19E52] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Why not Put a Huge wind Vain in wontaggi???? hehehehe Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ ----- Original Message ----- From: "Blair Trewin" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:26 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) > > > > > > --------------080505010708040105030106 > > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit > > > > Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can > > remember stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los > > Angeles when I was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the > > 'gateway' to the Death Valley National Park and it boasted to having the > > largest thermometer in the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and > > better). But anyway, it apperantly did wonders for the town's economy as > > many tourist stop just to check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what > > attracts people to places. :o) > > > > -Tim > > Barstow, California. Not quite sure what their claim to climatic > notoriety is, as there are several other towns in the Desert > Southwest that are hotter (such as Yuma, Arizona), but, as you > say, anything to attract the tourists.... > > At least they're not erecting the thermometer in Cloncurry :-) > > Blair > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: huggins.shm.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 17:13:17 +1100 From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at huggins.shm.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Left mover on Gympie radar Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Check out the red, left mover on the Gympie radar heading straight for Rainbow Beach! Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 17:46:36 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lismore supercell Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Dave and I had a brief but intense chase intercepting the supercell as it passed through the Lismore area. Prior to arriving at the lookout SSW of Lismore, strong SE-E winds developed and fed into the storm system as it spread northwards - in fact the inflow was probably 40 to 45 knots. The wind brought haze and it was quite cloudy ahead of the storm so the view was obscured. We could tell there was a large system approaching from the S with more development SW and even W. As it got closer the green tinge was very apparent though it lost this shortly before hitting us. Lightning was not very frequent, but there were a couple of CGs within 100 metres of us ! The SW part of the storm advanced towards us with a very turbulent sky, strong winds and very heavy precipitation. We sheltered from the strong inflow and a little rain on the western side of a small Telstra building till the lightning was too close for comfort. Soon after torrents of rain and gusty winds hit us from the SW. Probably up to 45-50 knots. It later veered to the SE with some pea sized hail amongst the torrential rain, again with strong gusts which slowly abated. Driving back into Lismore was difficult, but fun in the incredible rain - sort of like the Casino HP last year. In South Lismore there was flash flooding and some large branches ripped off trees. Reports I've received indicate power poles bent over on the Lismore Kyogle road ( N of where we were) and hail up to 4cm in Lismore, though not much of it. Extensive blackouts in most of the region W, N and NW of Lismore. The supercell tracked NNE and crossed the coast near Tweed Heads, a journey of about 5 hours from its origins S of Grafton. regards, Michael At 04:21 PM 16/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi!! >I've just been sitting S of Lismore with MB!!!!! WOW!!!! Absolutley >torrential rain and some very strong gusts (yes, the car rocked whilst >videoing!!). Minor flash flooding around Lismore and many power outages have >been reported. We saw a number of fire engines and police with lights >flasing and power crews darting around the place. One particulaly >interesting report is of 3 power poles near Nimbin (just N of Lismore) being >blown down by the winds!!! Those things aren't light!! Anyway, I'm sure MB >will fill in the gaps very soon. > >Dave Ellem >Wollongbar, >Northern Rivers, >NE NSW (gee I love this place!) ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: meso at pop.iprimus.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32) Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 18:02:10 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Mal Ninnes Subject: aus-wx: Cloncurry top temp - Jan 16 1889 (flashback) X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 06:58:54.0690 (UTC) FILETIME=[43081420:01C19E5B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I was rather surprised to see the 'On this day in history' page on Channel 7's teletext this morning reveal that Cloncurry (QLD) had the highest recorded Australian temperature, back in 1889. Don't panic, the 50.7 Oodnadatta (SA) record of 1960 wasn't forgotten. In fact, the Oodnadatta temperature is *THE* maximum. It seems that our own Blair Trewin set the record straight a few years ago. :-) __________________ From http://www.unimelb.edu.au/ExtRels/Media/UN/archive/1998/306/australiastoptem peratureta.html A University of Melbourne study has found that the temperature generally recognised as Australia's highest on record - 53.1 degrees at Cloncurry in Queensland in January 1889 - was almost certainly too high. In a paper published in the Australian Meteorological Magazine, Mr Blair Trewin, of the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne, has compiled historical evidence pointing to the inaccuracy of the Cloncurry reading. Mr Trewin says that meteorological documents of the time show that the instrument screen was replaced three weeks after the record was set - after being found to be 'defective'. A comparison of observations with Winton, to the south-east, suggests that the thermometer at Cloncurry, which is in the tropics, was over-exposed to the sun during the period in mid-summer when the sun is south of overhead there. These factors meant that the 53.1 degrees was not a true shade reading, and therefore cannot be compared fairly with other observations taken under standard conditions. Mr Trewin believes that it is equivalent to a standard reading of 47-48 degrees. He says that several other observations above 50 degrees have also been found to have similar problems. So where has the highest temperature in Australia been recorded under standard conditions? Blair Trewin says that it is believed to be 50.7 degrees recorded at Oodnadatta in northern South Australia in January 1960. The nearest approach to this since came in January 1979, when 49.8 degrees was recorded at Forrest and Mundrabilla, in the Nullarbor in Western Australia. __________________ Regards, Mal Ninnes Sydney +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 15:03:50 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Wonthaggi needs a rain gauge as well as the wind vane! Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Simon Angell" To: Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 16:51:16 +1100 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off topic) > Why not Put a Huge wind Vain in wontaggi???? > hehehehe > > Simon Angell > Canberra ACT > ICQ# 128920513 > www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ > and the site in development > www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Blair Trewin" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:26 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Stanthorpe trying to cash in on climate (off > topic) > > > > > > > > > > > --------------080505010708040105030106 > > > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed > > > Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit > > > > > > Hmmm, this idea of a large thermometer I have heard before. I can > > > remember stopping at a town somewhere in between Las Vegas and Los > > > Angeles when I was in the US a few years ago. This town was at the > > > 'gateway' to the Death Valley National Park and it boasted to > having the > > > largest thermometer in the world (typical yanks thinking bigger and > > > better). But anyway, it apperantly did wonders for the town's > economy as > > > many tourist stop just to check it out. *sigh* It is amazing what > > > attracts people to places. :o) > > > > > > -Tim > > > > Barstow, California. Not quite sure what their claim to climatic > > notoriety is, as there are several other towns in the Desert > > Southwest that are hotter (such as Yuma, Arizona), but, as you > > say, anything to attract the tourists.... > > > > At least they're not erecting the thermometer in Cloncurry :-) > > > > Blair > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 18:25:14 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Gerringong, Berry and Kiama had the brunt of the storm. The hail was not damaging size, but in volume along with the torrential rain there was some flash flooding.
 
The rain lasted to about the Shellharbour area, Wollongong rainfall was at least 10mm less than recorded here.
 
The rain was accompanied by strong winds.
 
Michael
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 January 2002 23:18
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm

HI all - my sister rang me tonight from Gerringong to report a severe hail storm that hit there about 8.50pm or so tonight.
 
Anyone with some reports. If Michael T can investigate, I will give you her number.
 
Rgds, Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Few bangs

We had a great little surprise fall last night, awoke to 11mm in the guage at 5am this morning. As I type we're getting a decent amount of CC lightning and that beautiful rumbling thunder that goes on and on and .... Last check we'd had almost another 10m in the guage, which will at least give us around 32mm so far this month, from 4 rain days now.
 
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
North Wollongong
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Few bangs

Few bangs here just after 6pm but is mostly to the SE of here. I have the westend edge over my house and clear blue sky everywhere but to the SE. Have the Americans delared this a No-rain zone! :-)
Lame joke....
I have had 4.2mm so far.....
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "David Carroll" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 22:48:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI . I will obtain info from work tomorrow re outages and problems that were caused. I had called Port Macquarie Control Centre today, unfort they were way to busy to give me any details at the present time. They did say they 40 odd faults had been reported in many areas of NW NSW. Dave Bathurst ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Ellem" To: Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:21 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > Hi!! > I've just been sitting S of Lismore with MB!!!!! WOW!!!! Absolutley > torrential rain and some very strong gusts (yes, the car rocked whilst > videoing!!). Minor flash flooding around Lismore and many power outages have > been reported. We saw a number of fire engines and police with lights > flasing and power crews darting around the place. One particulaly > interesting report is of 3 power poles near Nimbin (just N of Lismore) being > blown down by the winds!!! Those things aren't light!! Anyway, I'm sure MB > will fill in the gaps very soon. > > Dave Ellem > Wollongbar, > Northern Rivers, > NE NSW (gee I love this place!) > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Andrew" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:40 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > Latest NSW STA includes large hail from Armidale and severe winds from > > Lismore and Cape Byron.......... > > > > "the hits just keep on coming" - Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men. > > > > As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total > flop. > > Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone > sense > > any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland > trough > > produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have > us > > some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even had > > much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may be > > too warm in the upper levels. The ranges probably pose the best option at > > this stage from about Saturday onwards (although I should probably look a > > tad closer at things as there is probably a slight chance of something as > > early as Friday). Later on in the weekend (being Sunday) things *could* > get > > more interesting but I'm not going to say much yet until I see how things > > shape up over the next 48hrs. I guess we shouldn't ask for too > much.....we > > are going to get the warmer temps no matter what so asking for those AND > > storms is probably a bit much. > > > > Macca > > (suffering severe SDS) > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Andrew > > To: > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 3:17 PM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > > > > And now we move to QLD for the latest episode of "are there ever storms > in > > > Victoria?"......boy oh boy this is tough sitting here in Melbourne. STW > > now > > > out for SEQld. Cells developing rapidly and reaching max intensity. A > > nice > > > cell near Caboolture ATM is looking quite tasty. > > > > > > Reports of gusts to 50knts and large tree branches down from the bow > that > > > hit Lismore. > > > > > > Macca > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: Harald Richter > > > To: Aussie Weather > > > Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 2:59 PM > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Coffs Harbour/Grafton Storms > > > > > > > > > > > > > > A different Andrew wrote on a different topic ... > > > > > > > > > The latest STA for NSW indicated that large hail and very heavy > > rainfall > > > has > > > > > been reported from Grafton. A significantly large cell (probably > the > > > same > > > > > one) is heading for Casino/Lismore area. > > > > > > > > > > Chasers - get on it! > > > > > > > > If you need more convincing, pull up the 3:40 UTC Grafton radar > > > reflectivity > > > > to see big gorilla convection eat Lismore. The storms are no longer > > > nicely isolated > > > > (except for that lonely cell between Tenterfield and Casino), but the > > > developing > > > > bow echo/derecho surely packs a punch (judging from reflectivity and > > > dewpoints > > > > alone). Staying ahead of it might be a challenge. Curiously, the > > > lightning tracker > > > > picks up nothing from the beast ... > > > > > > > > More convection is firing along an outflow (?) boundary through > > Woolgoolga > > > > N of Coffs. > > > > > > > > Gee, why am I not getting any work done ... > > > > > > > > Harald > > > > > > > > -- > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 > > 4501 > > > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 > > 4660 > > > > PO Box 1289K email: > > h.richter at bom.gov.au > > > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2002 21:24:51 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Check this out for a severe hailstorm! Aye carumba!!!!! Coconut sized hail!
 

Two killed as coconut-sized hail stones fall on Thailand

Two people were killed and thousands of homes were damaged in hailstorms that hit northern Thailand, dumping ice chunks as large as coconuts.

The Interior Ministry says the provinces of Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Payao, Lampang, Nakhon Sawan, Uttradit, Phichit, Phitsanulok and Loei were affected by the weekend's freak weather.

Citing damage reports that have filtered in from remote parts of the country, it says 23,807 people were affected by the storms.

One man was killed and another was injured in a lightning strike in Payao, and a young girl in Phichit province was killed when a wall fell on top of her.

Chiang Rai was the worst-affected region, with 5,475 houses damaged or destroyed, and 13,209 people affected.

Nakhon Sawan local administrative official Chamnong Deemi says the hailstorm was the heaviest he had ever seen.

He says after it stopped, villagers emerged from their homes to find "small hills" of hail, some of which were the size of coconuts.

----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2002 4:55 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm

Gerringong, Berry and Kiama had the brunt of the storm. The hail was not damaging size, but in volume along with the torrential rain there was some flash flooding.
 
The rain lasted to about the Shellharbour area, Wollongong rainfall was at least 10mm less than recorded here.
 
The rain was accompanied by strong winds.
 
Michael
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, 15 January 2002 23:18
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Hail storm

HI all - my sister rang me tonight from Gerringong to report a severe hail storm that hit there about 8.50pm or so tonight.
 
Anyone with some reports. If Michael T can investigate, I will give you her number.
 
Rgds, Paul.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Few bangs

We had a great little surprise fall last night, awoke to 11mm in the guage at 5am this morning. As I type we're getting a decent amount of CC lightning and that beautiful rumbling thunder that goes on and on and .... Last check we'd had almost another 10m in the guage, which will at least give us around 32mm so far this month, from 4 rain days now.
 
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
North Wollongong
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 8:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Few bangs

Few bangs here just after 6pm but is mostly to the SE of here. I have the westend edge over my house and clear blue sky everywhere but to the SE. Have the Americans delared this a No-rain zone! :-)
Lame joke....
I have had 4.2mm so far.....
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Off topic - ICQ - SMS Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 02:53:26 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all.
 
If some of you arent not aware, ICQ - SMS is working with many more mobiles now. ICQ was restricted to Vodaphone, now many Optus and Telstra no's are working fine.
 
These current no's below all working .
 
0411
0412
0413
0409
0417
0418
0439
 
Hope this isnt too off topic. might be good for some storm notification. 
 
Dave
Bathurst
 
 
X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p115-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.115] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 05:55:03 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: 1 year on Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Just a memorial of the storm one year on where Casino was smashed by giant hailstones and various chasers were able to track down some severe storms with good upper level wind shear support. It occurred today one year ago. http://www.australiasevereweather.com/video/index.html For those who have not seen it, it's worthwhile checking out the footage of Giant hail falling at South Casino (by Bob Moran) 4.61mb WMV] on the link above. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 09:24:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Macca wrote... >As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total flop. >Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone sense >any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland trough >produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have us >some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even had >much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may be >too warm in the upper levels. Hate to say it Andrew but I think you have hit it on the head! Every day that goes by, the models look less and less hopeful. I really can't see any storms happening on Saturday despite the presence of a general trough across Victoria and reasonable instability indices, as (in particular) the atmosphere mid and low levels look too dry. Sunday looks very slightly more hopeful, though again there looks to be insufficient moisture. In addition I notice the models are developing an increasingly anticyclonic frontal passage (read lesser trigger), and push this through earlier in the day. In fact, based on some of the models it could arrive during the morning. Based on this kind of scenario, I would expect any storms to be (largely) limited to the eastern ranges (hope I'm wrong!). My suspicions are that if we are going to see any real action it won't be till next week when the high following closely behind Sundays expected change migrates to a position well south of Victoria. IF all goes to plan, a secondary trough COULD develop over south Australia by late Monday in association with a middle level trough progged by most models. My tip for temperatures is that we will only see one hot day in Melbourne out of this. This will be Saturday if the front is running a little ahead of time, or Sunday if the front is on the slower side of the model scenarios. To tell the truth I much prefer cool weather anyway (except when I'm on holiday!). Cheers, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Tropics go poof. Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:53:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Jan 2002 23:55:33.0292 (UTC) FILETIME=[490816C0:01C19EE9] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all tropos
Have you noticed that most of the cloud developments of the Australasian tropics have all but disappeared over the last two days, just as if the area has sucked in a huge breath...but will soon exhale!. Also the southeast of QLD looks ok today for some storm activity. regards Clyve H.
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 08:29:25 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tropics go poof. X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Clyve, this phenomenon is not limited to the Australasian tropics, the tropics everywhere have "gone poof". Right around the world there have been bits of convection that just might have managed to pull themselves together only to dissipate again. Wait for the great exhalation! Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:53:27 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: Tropics go poof. > Hi all tropos > Have you noticed that most of the cloud developments of the > Australasian tropics have all but disappeared over the last two days, > just as if the area has sucked in a huge breath...but will soon > exhale!. Also the southeast of QLD looks ok today for some storm > activity. regards Clyve H. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "nandina morris" To: , "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 12:31:09 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Oh - such relief - I have at last found another weather lister preferring cooler weather - thank you Dr David. I now know that I am not alone - a little (not) old (nearly) lady (Well, woman, at least) shuddering at the thought of mid 30+ in a non air conditioned house. I don't have info to contribute - but I do lurk and read many of the posts. Some I even understand. Cheers, Nandina ----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:24 AM Subject: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... > Macca wrote... > > >As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total > flop. > >Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone > sense > >any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland trough > >produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have > us > >some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even had > >much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may be > >too warm in the upper levels. > > Hate to say it Andrew but I think you have hit it on the head! Every day > that goes by, the > models look less and less hopeful. I really can't see any storms happening > on Saturday despite the presence of > a general trough across Victoria and reasonable instability indices, as (in > particular) the atmosphere mid and low levels look too dry. Sunday looks > very slightly more hopeful, though again there looks to be insufficient > moisture. In addition I notice the models are developing an increasingly > anticyclonic frontal passage (read lesser trigger), and push this through > earlier in the day. In fact, based on some of the models it could arrive > during the morning. Based on this kind of scenario, I would expect any > storms to be (largely) limited to the eastern ranges (hope I'm wrong!). > > My suspicions are that if we are going to see any real action it won't be > till next week when the high following closely behind Sundays expected > change migrates to a position well south of Victoria. IF all goes to plan, a > secondary trough COULD develop over south Australia by late Monday in > association with a middle level trough progged by most models. > > My tip for temperatures is that we will only see one hot day in Melbourne > out of this. This will be Saturday if the front is running a little ahead of > time, or Sunday if the front is on the slower side of the model scenarios. > To tell the truth I much prefer cool weather anyway (except when I'm on > holiday!). > > Cheers, > > DJ > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.310 / Virus Database: 171 - Release Date: 12/19/01 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.243.65] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:09:30 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Jan 2002 02:09:30.0306 (UTC) FILETIME=[FF771A20:01C19EFB] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Also have a look at GASP rainfall for next week, its holding quite a nice shading to the west around Adelaide next week, however note the interesting shadings on the ranges to the north and west of Melbourne on Sunday/Monday, and then the ranges to the very east of Melbourne on Tuesday/Wedensday...looks to include the Dandeonongs aswell, so all is not lost just have to wait a little while longer I guess, but still a long way off. Bye Karl >From: David Jones >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" >Subject: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... >Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 09:24:07 +1100 > >Macca wrote... > > >As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total >flop. > >Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone >sense > >any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland >trough > >produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have >us > >some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even >had > >much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may >be > >too warm in the upper levels. > >Hate to say it Andrew but I think you have hit it on the head! Every day >that goes by, the >models look less and less hopeful. I really can't see any storms happening >on Saturday despite the presence of >a general trough across Victoria and reasonable instability indices, as (in >particular) the atmosphere mid and low levels look too dry. Sunday looks >very slightly more hopeful, though again there looks to be insufficient >moisture. In addition I notice the models are developing an increasingly >anticyclonic frontal passage (read lesser trigger), and push this through >earlier in the day. In fact, based on some of the models it could arrive >during the morning. Based on this kind of scenario, I would expect any >storms to be (largely) limited to the eastern ranges (hope I'm wrong!). > >My suspicions are that if we are going to see any real action it won't be >till next week when the high following closely behind Sundays expected >change migrates to a position well south of Victoria. IF all goes to plan, >a >secondary trough COULD develop over south Australia by late Monday in >association with a middle level trough progged by most models. > >My tip for temperatures is that we will only see one hot day in Melbourne >out of this. This will be Saturday if the front is running a little ahead >of >time, or Sunday if the front is on the slower side of the model scenarios. >To tell the truth I much prefer cool weather anyway (except when I'm on >holiday!). > >Cheers, > >DJ > >Dr David Jones > >Climate Analysis Section >National Climate Centre >Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 >GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 >Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.243.65] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 12:58:54 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 17 Jan 2002 01:58:54.0276 (UTC) FILETIME=[845CA040:01C19EFA] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey David and all, I have been monitoring the GASP models daily and they have said consistantly that a tough would extend into VIC on Sunday and surface early next week bringing some nice thundery rain. But now it has totally changed with a trough now extending from SA, but only weak and the risk of showers and storms near the troughline. I agree with David, that change looks like it could come through on in the morning, restricting the temp from getting to 36 degrees, more like 32 in this scenario. But I am still not ruling out the chance of thunderstorms in VIC as of yet, keep a close eye on the development in the west today. Karl >From: David Jones >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" >Subject: aus-wx: Vic this weekend... >Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 09:24:07 +1100 > >Macca wrote... > > >As for Victoria.....the potential is there for this week to be a total >flop. > >Given our current awesome storm record so far this summer (does anyone >sense > >any sarcasm here....hehe) i wouldn't be surprised to see this inland >trough > >produce nothing for us. Combining NGP and GASP together, we look to have >us > >some warmer temperatures (at least this is something - we haven't even >had > >much of this) but this may prove to be a bad thing re: storms as it may >be > >too warm in the upper levels. > >Hate to say it Andrew but I think you have hit it on the head! Every day >that goes by, the >models look less and less hopeful. I really can't see any storms happening >on Saturday despite the presence of >a general trough across Victoria and reasonable instability indices, as (in >particular) the atmosphere mid and low levels look too dry. Sunday looks >very slightly more hopeful, though again there looks to be insufficient >moisture. In addition I notice the models are developing an increasingly >anticyclonic frontal passage (read lesser trigger), and push this through >earlier in the day. In fact, based on some of the models it could arrive >during the morning. Based on this kind of scenario, I would expect any >storms to be (largely) limited to the eastern ranges (hope I'm wrong!). > >My suspicions are that if we are going to see any real action it won't be >till next week when the high following closely behind Sundays expected >change migrates to a position well south of Victoria. IF all goes to plan, >a >secondary trough COULD develop over south Australia by late Monday in >association with a middle level trough progged by most models. > >My tip for temperatures is that we will only see one hot day in Melbourne >out of this. This will be Saturday if the front is running a little ahead >of >time, or Sunday if the front is on the slower side of the model scenarios. >To tell the truth I much prefer cool weather anyway (except when I'm on >holiday!). > >Cheers, > >DJ > >Dr David Jones > >Climate Analysis Section >National Climate Centre >Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 >GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 >Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 16:06:54 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I previously posted that Ken allows a leeway of +-1 day for the accuracy of his forecasts and decided to find a way to assess the results with this leeway included for all forecasts in order that the assessing parameters are identical. I set up a table with a "*" on the hit-whether-it-rains-or-not days (-: "mainly fine with a chance of a shower" :-) that result from simply including +-1 day leeway on the rain days giving the following results: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot * 8 12 13 7 Tot R 10 9 9 4 Tot - 11 8 7 18 The fact that Kens rain forecasts are in 4 distinct blocks wheras the RNGs are mostly scattered gives the RNGs a remarkable overall statistical advantage, and in any case the large number of 100% certain hit days skews the results to an unacceptable degree. Having already decided I was on the wrong track but in order to see what would happen anyway I extended the "*" days to allow the +-1 day leeway for the no rain days giving the following results: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot * 15 21 22 11 Tot R 3 0 0 0 Tot - 11 8 7 18 Without any Obs, RNG#2 has almost won! It was obvious that if I wanted to keep the +-1 day leeway rule I needed to find a way eliminate the 100% certain hit results without losing any data from an already very small set. I came up with the following set of rules: 1. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "R" days register as rain day hits 2. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "-" days register as no rain day as hits. 3. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "-" days register as rain day hits: IF the previous Obs day is "-" AND the previous forecast day is "R" OR the next Obs day is "-" AND the next forecast day is "R" 4. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "R" days register as no rain day hits: IF the previous Obs day is "R" AND the previous forecast day is "-" OR the next Obs day is "R" AND the next forecast day is "-" 5. all other cases register as misses The way these rules are set up eliminates the 100% hit days whilst allowing the +-1 day leeway. (Correct me if I am wrong!) I set up a spreadsheet using these rules to keep track of the progress (and hope I entered all the now complex rule equations correctly!). Harald informed us that rain was recorded in Sydney on the 15th, so I have included this as a rain day in the Obs column in my copy of his table. The hits score up to the 15th: 4 Obs Rain days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 3 2 2 2 75% 50% 50% 50% 9 Obs No Rain days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 8 8 8 9 88.9% 88.9% 88.9% 100% All 13 Obs days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 11 10 10 11 84.6% 76.9% 76.9% 84.6% At this stage after 13 days: Ken is ahead on the Rain days. RNG#3 is ahead on the No Rain days. Ken and RNG#3 are equal leaders in the totals. Haralds table updated to the 15th is pasted below. Regards, Carl. Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Jan 03 - - - - - 04 - - - - - 05 - - - - R 06 R R - R - 07 R R R - - 08 - - - - - 09 R - R R R 10 - - - - - 11 - - R - - 12 - - - - - 13 - R - R - 14 - R - - - 15 R - - - - 16 ? - R - - 17 ? - - - - 18 ? - - - - 19 ? - - R - 20 ? R - - - 21 ? - R R - 22 ? - - - - 23 ? - R - - 24 ? R R R - 25 ? R - - - 26 ? R - R - 27 ? R - R - 28 ? R R - R 29 ? - - - - 30 ? - R - R 31 ? - - R - R = day where rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast - = day where no rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: dencot1 at aol.com Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 07:41:13 EST Subject: Re: aus-wx: Historical Victorian tornado request To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows AU sub 57 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane
In the early 90,s I remember what I would consider a F2 came through Bayswater Vic.
I remember it was a very humid summers day and my first child was still in the crib so too speak. I was out on our front porch with a strong wind that was coming and going until I hear the classic train coming from the distance.Sudenly AND I DO MEAN SUDDENLY it hit. I have never again seen or heard any thing like what happened in the next 30 seconds. I was so scared I ran inside yelling . When we walk outside 5 minutes later a full 30 cm of hail was on the ground with a clear blue sky above . The cloud that drop it was moving S.E. . That might have been what hit Footscray some       minutes  earlier . I think that storm was moving very fast across the ground.

Give me a ring if you more info on 9720-3738

Regards
Dennis  Cottle
Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's (fwd) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 10:32:42 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Beware, My comments that follow are (somewhat) nit-picky and technical - if such a thing bores or annoys you, please read no further. Carl came up with the following set of rules: > 1. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "R" days register as rain day hits > > 2. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "-" days register as no rain > day as hits. > > 3. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "-" days register as rain day > hits: > IF the previous Obs day is "-" AND the previous forecast day > is "R" > OR the next Obs day is "-" AND the next forecast day is "R" > > 4. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "R" days register as no rain > day hits: > IF the previous Obs day is "R" AND the previous forecast day > is "-" > OR the next Obs day is "R" AND the next forecast day is "-" > > 5. all other cases register as misses > > The way these rules are set up eliminates the 100% hit days whilst allowing > the +-1 day leeway. (Correct me if I am wrong!) Schematically, Carl's set of rules maps into 6 types of "hits" as follows: fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- day -1 R - - R day 0 R R - - - R - R R - R - day +1 R - - R case (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (see above) Loosely (and practically) interpreted a "+/- 1 day leeway" tells me that a `rain on day 0 forecast' verifies if any rain is recorded on day 0 and/or day -1 and/or day +1. This interpretation includes the scenarios fcst obs that produce a "hit" ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- day -1 R - - R R - R day 0 R - R - R - R R day +1 - - R - R R R Likewise for `no rain on day 0' forecasts: fcst obs that produce a "hit" ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- day -1 - R - - R R - day 0 - - - R - R - R day +1 - - - R - R R Unlike Carl's scheme, I do not include any dependencies on day -1/+1 forecasts into the day 0 forecast verification. With _my_ "leeway-inclusive" verification scheme a mindless "it never rains in Sydney" forecast would verify on all days but the 16th (17th too early to tell): Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless -------------------------------------------- 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. In my more conventional hit = (R R, - -) scheme the current score has advanced to RNG#1: 11/14 RNG#2: 10/14 Ken: 9/14 RNG#3: 9/14 Cheers, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's (fwd) Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 10:56:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, For those of us who are statistically challenged (for the simple resaon that we haven't done Stats since university), if you allow a +/- 1 day leeway, doesn't that actually improve your chances of scoring a 'hit' by something in the order of 300%? Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- Beware, My comments that follow are (somewhat) nit-picky and technical - if such a thing bores or annoys you, please read no further. Carl came up with the following set of rules: > 1. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "R" days register as rain day hits > > 2. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "-" days register as no rain > day as hits. > > 3. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "-" days register as rain day > hits: > IF the previous Obs day is "-" AND the previous forecast day > is "R" > OR the next Obs day is "-" AND the next forecast day is "R" > > 4. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "R" days register as no rain > day hits: > IF the previous Obs day is "R" AND the previous forecast day > is "-" > OR the next Obs day is "R" AND the next forecast day is "-" > > 5. all other cases register as misses > > The way these rules are set up eliminates the 100% hit days whilst allowing > the +-1 day leeway. (Correct me if I am wrong!) Schematically, Carl's set of rules maps into 6 types of "hits" as follows: fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - day -1 R - - R day 0 R R - - - R - R R - R - day +1 R - - R case (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (see above) Loosely (and practically) interpreted a "+/- 1 day leeway" tells me that a `rain on day 0 forecast' verifies if any rain is recorded on day 0 and/or day -1 and/or day +1. This interpretation includes the scenarios fcst obs that produce a "hit" ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - day -1 R - - R R - R day 0 R - R - R - R R day +1 - - R - R R R Likewise for `no rain on day 0' forecasts: fcst obs that produce a "hit" ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- - day -1 - R - - R R - day 0 - - - R - R - R day +1 - - - R - R R Unlike Carl's scheme, I do not include any dependencies on day -1/+1 forecasts into the day 0 forecast verification. With _my_ "leeway-inclusive" verification scheme a mindless "it never rains in Sydney" forecast would verify on all days but the 16th (17th too early to tell): Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless -------------------------------------------- 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. In my more conventional hit = (R R, - -) scheme the current score has advanced to RNG#1: 11/14 RNG#2: 10/14 Ken: 9/14 RNG#3: 9/14 Cheers, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p297-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.43] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:10:55 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, As noted earlier, we were in the process of being forced to change servers through Yahoo's ambiguity and sly actions in my view. Just as a note to those with the old simplenet accounts, please beware that unlimited is no longer valid and thence you have to choose a new plan - of course Yahoo conviently puts you in a 100mb plan using just an asterisk to make you check your sites usage!!! Today, the pass over to a new server has just occurred. What does this mean? It means the only link that exists now is the domain name: http://australiasevereweather.com The simplenet URL will no longer work so any links with will not work. http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ is no longer valid (Note: I have e-mailed in the past many members on this list with web pages linking to it. Some have not bothered to make the change over. If that is the case, then effectively you no longer have a link to our site which is of course your choice. But I suppose a return link is no longer warranted. Sorry to sound like this, but some people simply do not care about the incorrect links and don't spend the small amount of time to make the change so there is no other option. Do a search and replace on your sites for any occurrence of australiansevereweather.simplenet.com and replace with australiasevereweather.com and upload those files. Simple.) Your feedback as to the speed and reliability of the site is appreciated as it will let us know how effective the new server is. Please send feedback to myself jdeguara at ihug.com.au or Michael Bath mbath at ozemail.com.au Please also note that due to the change of server, old cached files on your computer and/or isp server can make the site look like it is offline or not fully loading as I found out this morning. This may take a little time to change over. Please note that it is fully functioning. I would like to thank Mario Orazem and his mate Alex for their support and patience in using the fast internet cable connection in passing files across to the new server. It took over 24 hours with a couple of embedded problems to transfer thousands of files with 850mb total. I think if we did it with dialup it would have taken a week!!! I hope all goes well. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 10:33:37 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Carl. I must admit to being a bit confused by your argument, as I think there is no such thing as a certain hit day. If I apply the method that any non-hit day is taken as a hit day provided that it is adjacent to a hit day (forwards or backwards), then by inspection of the table I get: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot: 11 13 13 12 84.6% 100% 100% 92.3% I think to be fair to the method, in which you are trying to make the hit a bit 'fuzzy' to pick up correlation, then on your +-1 day events you should only allocate them a partial hit, i.e., 0.5 not 1.0. On that basis you get: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot: 10 11.5 11.5 10.5 76.9% 88.5% 88.5% 80.8% Which still puts the RNG's ahead in all cases, Ken's last 3 successive non-hit days being the critical discriminating factor. Anyhow, I think the sample is at present far too small to bear any significant result from statistical analysis. >snip Hi All. I previously posted that Ken allows a leeway of +-1 day for the accuracy of his forecasts and decided to find a way to assess the results with this leeway included for all forecasts in order that the assessing parameters are identical. I set up a table with a "*" on the hit-whether-it-rains-or-not days (-: "mainly fine with a chance of a shower" :-) that result from simply including +-1 day leeway on the rain days giving the following results: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot * 8 12 13 7 Tot R 10 9 9 4 Tot - 11 8 7 18 The fact that Kens rain forecasts are in 4 distinct blocks wheras the RNGs are mostly scattered gives the RNGs a remarkable overall statistical advantage, and in any case the large number of 100% certain hit days skews the results to an unacceptable degree. Having already decided I was on the wrong track but in order to see what would happen anyway I extended the "*" days to allow the +-1 day leeway for the no rain days giving the following results: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Tot * 15 21 22 11 Tot R 3 0 0 0 Tot - 11 8 7 18 Without any Obs, RNG#2 has almost won! It was obvious that if I wanted to keep the +-1 day leeway rule I needed to find a way eliminate the 100% certain hit results without losing any data from an already very small set. I came up with the following set of rules: 1. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "R" days register as rain day hits 2. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "-" days register as no rain day as hits. 3. all Obs "R" days that match forecast "-" days register as rain day hits: IF the previous Obs day is "-" AND the previous forecast day is "R" OR the next Obs day is "-" AND the next forecast day is "R" 4. all Obs "-" days that match forecast "R" days register as no rain day hits: IF the previous Obs day is "R" AND the previous forecast day is "-" OR the next Obs day is "R" AND the next forecast day is "-" 5. all other cases register as misses The way these rules are set up eliminates the 100% hit days whilst allowing the +-1 day leeway. (Correct me if I am wrong!) I set up a spreadsheet using these rules to keep track of the progress (and hope I entered all the now complex rule equations correctly!). Harald informed us that rain was recorded in Sydney on the 15th, so I have included this as a rain day in the Obs column in my copy of his table. The hits score up to the 15th: 4 Obs Rain days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 3 2 2 2 75% 50% 50% 50% 9 Obs No Rain days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 8 8 8 9 88.9% 88.9% 88.9% 100% All 13 Obs days: Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 11 10 10 11 84.6% 76.9% 76.9% 84.6% At this stage after 13 days: Ken is ahead on the Rain days. RNG#3 is ahead on the No Rain days. Ken and RNG#3 are equal leaders in the totals. Haralds table updated to the 15th is pasted below. Regards, Carl. Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Jan 03 - - - - - 04 - - - - - 05 - - - - R 06 R R - R - 07 R R R - - 08 - - - - - 09 R - R R R 10 - - - - - 11 - - R - - 12 - - - - - 13 - R - R - 14 - R - - - 15 R - - - - 16 ? - R - - 17 ? - - - - 18 ? - - - - 19 ? - - R - 20 ? R - - - 21 ? - R R - 22 ? - - - - 23 ? - R - - 24 ? R R R - 25 ? R - - - 26 ? R - R - 27 ? R - R - 28 ? R R - R 29 ? - - - - 30 ? - R - R 31 ? - - R - R = day where rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast - = day where no rain was observed (YSSY METARS) or forecast ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: stats and the Moon. Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 11:40:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Jan 2002 00:42:42.0236 (UTC) FILETIME=[09A06FC0:01C19FB9] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all stato's
I have been following with much interest the latest boredom solving of time disposal during our current run of weather in Victoria. About 10 years ago I met up with a fellow who claimed to have solved the weather prediction formula,in those days and it seems these days as well  snake oil methods of weather prediction were very advanced..., his simple method was predicting weather on the phases of the moon..., Oh yare,I said, and he proceeded to describe the types of weather associated with changes in the phase of the moon i.e., new moon high pressure prevail and full moon low pressure ect, ect, ect. Being an inquisitive type of person I pushed a little further,' "So why does  high pressure prevail on a new moon I asked", well very simple he replied,there is less gravitational pull from the moon so air within the atmosphere subsides!. Ok I get it I said, so when the moon is full there's more gravity!. Yep came the reply( this chap had just had his ideas published in the local paper!!)a bit like the tides he said. So on he went trying to sell me and the world his so called new idea. Finally I must say I had had enough and I simply suggested that you mean to say that when the moon is new all the rest of the moon has gone missing?, and the moon simply regrows to become a full moon.........I received no answer....I never saw this joker again....
best wishes Clyve Herbert.
 
P.S. Although I have lost the article from the local rag, the predictions for this method worked in a similar way to the methods presently discussed on the list i.e. .... High pressure was predicted +2 -2 days either side of the new moon and low pressure +2-2 days either side of a full moon. To look at reality though it would be true to claim that the gravitation effect on the atmosphere does exist and I assume there are genuine experts out there that can provide solid data....
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Waiting to exhale.... Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 11:51:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Welcome to TC Dina in the Indian Ocean.... 172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 72.0E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 171730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) INDICATES A DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 14 FEET. Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: lack of cloud in tropics.. Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 13:58:27 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > >Hi all tropos >Have you noticed that most of the cloud developments of the Australasian = >tropics have all but disappeared over the last two days, just as if the = >area has sucked in a huge breath...but will soon exhale!. Also the = >southeast of QLD looks ok today for some storm activity. regards Clyve = >H. Clyve... nothing certain in meteorology and I'm far from a tropics expert, but I suspect the very low levels of convection around Australia at present are in response to the very active convection currently in the central Indian Ocean http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif Remembering... of course... that if you have rising air somewhere you must have sinking air somewhere else... If you take a lookie at http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/f.7.MJO.html and similar on this page, it appears that there is a rather strong 30-50 day tropical wave (or Madden Julian Oscillation) across the Indian Ocean, and Australia and the neighbouring area is currently in the suppressed phase of this oscillation (take a lookie at the time serise on http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR/ts.r2.l.gif). The current expectation (http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.MJO.S.h tml) is that Australian longitudes should see an increase in convection in the tropics in coming weeks. Always, keep in mind when lookie at plots such as this that the skill at long range is the tropics is mixed.... Cheers, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 12:41:25 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I reckon your pages are loading significantly more rapidly. The videos and other very large items seem to be about the same. I've fixed all links throughout my site. (Did a bit of other cleaning up too - but more yet to be done!). Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Jimmy Deguara To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 08:10:55 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server > Hi all, > > As noted earlier, we were in the process of being forced to change > servers > through Yahoo's ambiguity and sly actions in my view. Just as a note to > those with the old simplenet accounts, please beware that unlimited is > no > longer valid and thence you have to choose a new plan - of course Yahoo > conviently puts you in a 100mb plan using just an asterisk to make you > check your sites usage!!! > > Today, the pass over to a new server has just occurred. What does this > mean? It means the only link that exists now is the domain name: > > http://australiasevereweather.com > > The simplenet URL will no longer work so any links with will not work. > > http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ is no longer valid > > (Note: I have e-mailed in the past many members on this list with web > pages > linking to it. Some have not bothered to make the change over. If that > is > the case, then effectively you no longer have a link to our site which > is > of course your choice. But I suppose a return link is no longer > warranted. > Sorry to sound like this, but some people simply do not care about the > incorrect links and don't spend the small amount of time to make the > change > so there is no other option. Do a search and replace on your sites for > any > occurrence of australiansevereweather.simplenet.com and replace with > australiasevereweather.com and upload those files. Simple.) > > Your feedback as to the speed and reliability of the site is > appreciated as > it will let us know how effective the new server is. Please send > feedback > to myself jdeguara at ihug.com.au or Michael Bath mbath at ozemail.com.au > > Please also note that due to the change of server, old cached files on > your > computer and/or isp server can make the site look like it is offline or > not > fully loading as I found out this morning. This may take a little time > to > change over. Please note that it is fully functioning. > > I would like to thank Mario Orazem and his mate Alex for their support > and > patience in using the fast internet cable connection in passing files > across to the new server. It took over 24 hours with a couple of > embedded > problems to transfer thousands of files with 850mb total. I think if we > did > it with dialup it would have taken a week!!! > > I hope all goes well. > > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 17:15:48 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Loads fine, Jimmy. Which host service did you go with? (I may have missed some earlier posts.) I remember reading that you had 850mb or thereabouts. I discovered I have 287 links to ASW on my site :), some of which (in old news items) were still the simplenet ones. Now corrected. Laurier > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara > Sent: Friday, 18 January, 2002 8:11 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server > > > Hi all, > > As noted earlier, we were in the process of being forced to > change servers > through Yahoo's ambiguity and sly actions in my view. Just as a note to > those with the old simplenet accounts, please beware that unlimited is no > longer valid and thence you have to choose a new plan - of course Yahoo > conviently puts you in a 100mb plan using just an asterisk to make you > check your sites usage!!! > > Today, the pass over to a new server has just occurred. What does this > mean? It means the only link that exists now is the domain name: > > http://australiasevereweather.com > > The simplenet URL will no longer work so any links with will not work. > > http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ is no longer valid > > (Note: I have e-mailed in the past many members on this list with > web pages > linking to it. Some have not bothered to make the change over. If that is > the case, then effectively you no longer have a link to our site which is > of course your choice. But I suppose a return link is no longer > warranted. > Sorry to sound like this, but some people simply do not care about the > incorrect links and don't spend the small amount of time to make > the change > so there is no other option. Do a search and replace on your > sites for any > occurrence of australiansevereweather.simplenet.com and replace with > australiasevereweather.com and upload those files. Simple.) > > Your feedback as to the speed and reliability of the site is > appreciated as > it will let us know how effective the new server is. Please send feedback > to myself jdeguara at ihug.com.au or Michael Bath mbath at ozemail.com.au > > Please also note that due to the change of server, old cached > files on your > computer and/or isp server can make the site look like it is > offline or not > fully loading as I found out this morning. This may take a little time to > change over. Please note that it is fully functioning. > > I would like to thank Mario Orazem and his mate Alex for their > support and > patience in using the fast internet cable connection in passing files > across to the new server. It took over 24 hours with a couple of embedded > problems to transfer thousands of files with 850mb total. I think > if we did > it with dialup it would have taken a week!!! > > I hope all goes well. > > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 17:48:08 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Mmmm... Sent this 3 hours ago and it still hasn't turned up on the list, yet a post I sent a few minutes ago has. Will try again. Apologies if you get this twice. Jane wrote: > For those of us who are statistically challenged (for the simple > resaon that > we haven't done Stats since university), if you allow a +/- 1 day leeway, > doesn't that actually improve your chances of scoring a 'hit' by something > in the order of 300%? and Harald wrote: > I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from > assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. Indeed, in an average Australian climate where it rains 12 to 15 days a month, it virtually guarantees you success no matter what dates you pick, and the RNG's are probably going to triumph. I find the contest most enjoyable and diverting, and look forward to the end of month results. However, it also points up some of the crazier aspects of verification as a whole. Public forecasts are, by their nature, rather fuzzy, subjective descriptions of the likely nature of forthcoming weather over a broad area. About the only hard facts they contain are forecast max and min temps. Statistical verification craves hard information and numbers, so in the Bureau it's the max and min temps that seem to have been the basis for most verification work. But your average punter takes the words s/he hears in the forecast and converts them into a mental picture of the day(s) to come. Sunny, wet, hot, cold. To say a forecast of "fine" weather for Sydney Metro is wrong because 0.2mm fell at Mascot applies a literal meaning to "verification" that is absurd. So does saying a forecast of "rain" is correct because 0.2mm fell at Mascot. Verification of public forecasts needs to get out of the domain of measurements and figures, and into the domain of semantics. The forecast reads "scattered showers near the coast in the morning". The forecast would only verify true if sufficient precipitation in the form of showers fell over sufficient area to be deemed "scattered" that was close enough to the coast to be deemed "near". Oh, and the area deemed not to be "near" must remain showerless. Somewhere in this process, subjective judgements must be made. And if an errant shower strayed "inland", does it invalidate the forecast? No, but it does reduce its validity, so there is a place for relative accuracy too, not just absolute, yes/no, correct/incorrect forecasts. But despite the subjectivity and fluffiness, the subsequent verification will be a lot more meaningful and accurate in human terms than saying that 0.2mm at Mascot verifies a wet forecast of any description for Sydney metro. Semantic verification would also point up some of the inadequacies of current forecasting in exposing the degree of fluff factor they contain. "Rain developing later" -- when is "later". With the right form of words, you can create a quite credible looking forecast that is meaningless -- and useless. Methinks some long-range forecasters, though no doubt well-intentioned, could be perceived as masters of the art. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp3.ihug.com.au: Host p297-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.148.43] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 18:55:42 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Michael Bath uses Featureprice http://www.featureprice.com/ and so we were able to add our domain to that. It is one of the better services around at the moment. I looked around quite a bit and it offers one of the better deals for what we want - a little lean on the bandwidth but yes these are tough times. I also thank those who have made the effort to update their links. Quite a quick response. It really helps because people who visit the sites use those incorrect links and it spreads like a disease. Now that it doesn't work, it makes it a little easier. And with people helping, perhaps we can narrow the time to change to the one link down to a couple of years. There are hundreds of links out there. Hopefully those others will get the message. Once again thanks for the great response so far. Jimmy Deguara At 05:15 PM 18/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Loads fine, Jimmy. Which host service did you go with? (I may have missed >some earlier posts.) I remember reading that you had 850mb or thereabouts. > >I discovered I have 287 links to ASW on my site :), some of which (in old >news items) were still the simplenet ones. Now corrected. > >Laurier > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jimmy Deguara > > Sent: Friday, 18 January, 2002 8:11 AM > > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Subject: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server > > > > > > Hi all, > > > > As noted earlier, we were in the process of being forced to > > change servers > > through Yahoo's ambiguity and sly actions in my view. Just as a note to > > those with the old simplenet accounts, please beware that unlimited is no > > longer valid and thence you have to choose a new plan - of course Yahoo > > conviently puts you in a 100mb plan using just an asterisk to make you > > check your sites usage!!! > > > > Today, the pass over to a new server has just occurred. What does this > > mean? It means the only link that exists now is the domain name: > > > > http://australiasevereweather.com > > > > The simplenet URL will no longer work so any links with will not work. > > > > http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ is no longer valid > > > > (Note: I have e-mailed in the past many members on this list with > > web pages > > linking to it. Some have not bothered to make the change over. If that is > > the case, then effectively you no longer have a link to our site which is > > of course your choice. But I suppose a return link is no longer > > warranted. > > Sorry to sound like this, but some people simply do not care about the > > incorrect links and don't spend the small amount of time to make > > the change > > so there is no other option. Do a search and replace on your > > sites for any > > occurrence of australiansevereweather.simplenet.com and replace with > > australiasevereweather.com and upload those files. Simple.) > > > > Your feedback as to the speed and reliability of the site is > > appreciated as > > it will let us know how effective the new server is. Please send feedback > > to myself jdeguara at ihug.com.au or Michael Bath mbath at ozemail.com.au > > > > Please also note that due to the change of server, old cached > > files on your > > computer and/or isp server can make the site look like it is > > offline or not > > fully loading as I found out this morning. This may take a little time to > > change over. Please note that it is fully functioning. > > > > I would like to thank Mario Orazem and his mate Alex for their > > support and > > patience in using the fast internet cable connection in passing files > > across to the new server. It took over 24 hours with a couple of embedded > > problems to transfer thousands of files with 850mb total. I think > > if we did > > it with dialup it would have taken a week!!! > > > > I hope all goes well. > > > > > > ----------------------------------------- > > Jimmy Deguara > > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > > > from > > Schofields, Sydney > > NSW Australia > > > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" From: "Mark Hardy" To: , Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Animating Radars Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 19:16:13 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au Message
We have put up a set of animating radar screens on Weatherzone. It has both composite and singlesite animations and a few neat controls like frame rate and number of images to load. It allows you to build up to an 8 hour sequence. The images are updated every 10 minutes as issued by the Bureau of Met.
 
You can see an example here:
 
One catch, it requires the JAVA plug-in to run and therefore may not run on some older browsers and older versions of the MacOS.
 
Enjoy.
 
Mark Hardy
The Weather Company Pty. Ltd.
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 18:33:39 +1100 From: Tim Grugeon User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:0.9.4) Gecko/20011128 Netscape6/6.2.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Severe Weather changes server Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jimmy, I just went into ASW before reading this email. I can say that I did not notice anything at all abnormal, and must say if anything, it was quicker then usual. Well done!! -Tim Jimmy Deguara wrote: > Hi all, > > As noted earlier, we were in the process of being forced to change > servers through Yahoo's ambiguity and sly actions in my view. Just as > a note to those with the old simplenet accounts, please beware that > unlimited is no longer valid and thence you have to choose a new plan > - of course Yahoo conviently puts you in a 100mb plan using just an > asterisk to make you check your sites usage!!! > > Today, the pass over to a new server has just occurred. What does this > mean? It means the only link that exists now is the domain name: > > http://australiasevereweather.com > > The simplenet URL will no longer work so any links with will not work. > > http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/ is no longer valid > > (Note: I have e-mailed in the past many members on this list with web > pages linking to it. Some have not bothered to make the change over. > If that is the case, then effectively you no longer have a link to our > site which is of course your choice. But I suppose a return link is no > longer warranted. Sorry to sound like this, but some people simply do > not care about the incorrect links and don't spend the small amount of > time to make the change so there is no other option. Do a search and > replace on your sites for any occurrence of > australiansevereweather.simplenet.com and replace with > australiasevereweather.com and upload those files. Simple.) > > Your feedback as to the speed and reliability of the site is > appreciated as it will let us know how effective the new server is. > Please send feedback to myself jdeguara at ihug.com.au or Michael > Bath mbath at ozemail.com.au > > Please also note that due to the change of server, old cached files on > your computer and/or isp server can make the site look like it is > offline or not fully loading as I found out this morning. This may > take a little time to change over. Please note that it is fully > functioning. > > I would like to thank Mario Orazem and his mate Alex for their support > and patience in using the fast internet cable connection in passing > files across to the new server. It took over 24 hours with a couple of > embedded problems to transfer thousands of files with 850mb total. I > think if we did it with dialup it would have taken a week!!! > > I hope all goes well. > > > ----------------------------------------- > Jimmy Deguara > Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher > > from > Schofields, Sydney > NSW Australia > > e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au > > Web Page with Michael Bath > > Australian Severe Weather Home Page > http://www.australiasevereweather.com > > President of the Australian Severe Weather Association > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 19:53:47 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Michael Bath Subject: aus-wx: massive hail footage from 16/1/2002 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, In case you missed it, a massive hail storm from a high precipitation supercell caused destruction on the NSW North Coast on Wednesday 16/1/2002, particularly at Kingscliff near the Queensland border. If you only download one clip, check out the size of the hail in clip #03 http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv03.wmv Kingscliff (604kb) http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv01.wmv Kingscliff (1.13mb) http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv02.wmv Lismore (871kb) These are on a temporary server due to so much bandwidth involved. Hope they load ok for everyone who tries. cheers, Michael ================================================================== Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ ================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [213.38.89.28] From: "jr" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: massive hail footage from 16/1/2002 Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 10:12:38 -0000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 18 Jan 2002 10:12:44.0389 (UTC) FILETIME=[ABB2D150:01C1A008] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I like the first clip Michael with the trees and debris flying by. Great footage. John Roenfeldt ----- Original Message ----- From: Michael Bath To: Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:53 AM Subject: aus-wx: massive hail footage from 16/1/2002 > Hi all, > > In case you missed it, a massive hail storm from a high precipitation > supercell caused destruction on the NSW North Coast on Wednesday 16/1/2002, > particularly at Kingscliff near the Queensland border. > > If you only download one clip, check out the size of the hail in clip #03 > > http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv03.wmv > Kingscliff (604kb) > > http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv01.wmv > Kingscliff (1.13mb) > > http://members.dingoblue.net.au/~michaelbath/0116tv02.wmv > Lismore (871kb) > > > These are on a temporary server due to so much bandwidth involved. Hope > they load ok for everyone who tries. > > cheers, Michael > > > > ================================================================== > Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au > McLeans Ridges co-webmaster: http://australiasevereweather.com/ > North Coast NSW webmaster: http://lightningphotography.com/ > Australia webmaster: http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ > ================================================================== > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 23:09:35 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Cold In Brisbane Tonight Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Geez, only January 18 and I've already head to search for an extra blanket - thought it was rather cool in my room, outside temperature a chilly 19.2C!!! It's the coldest it's been at this time of night (11:05pm) for months! Could need the doonah with DPs of only 15C...stupid Quidge! Most places are hovering just above or below the 20C mark. -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 14:36:40 +0000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Norman Lynagh Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold In Brisbane Tonight X-Mailer: Turnpike (32) Version 4.00 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In message <3C481E8F.D7E8120C at bigpond.net.au>, Anthony Cornelius writes >Hi all, > >Geez, only January 18 and I've already head to search for an extra >blanket - thought it was rather cool in my room, outside temperature a >chilly 19.2C!!! It's the coldest it's been at this time of night >(11:05pm) for months! Could need the doonah with DPs of only >15C...stupid Quidge! Most places are hovering just above or below the >20C mark. > 19.2C - That's shorts and barbie weather over here :-) Seriously though, it's amazing how we all acclimatise to what is typical of wherever we live. Any deviation from typical temperatures is immediately noticeable. Norman. =================================================================== Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St. Giles Buckinghamshire E-mail:norman at weather-consultancy.com England =================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 03:12:18 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's (fwd) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. >Beware, > >My comments that follow are (somewhat) nit-picky and technical - if such a >thing bores >or annoys you, please read no further. My added comments are also a bit technical >Schematically, Carl's set of rules maps into 6 types of "hits" as follows: > > fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs fcst obs >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >day -1 R - - R >day 0 R R - - - R - R R - R - >day +1 R - - R > >case (1) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) OK so far. >Loosely (and practically) interpreted a "+/- 1 day leeway" tells me that a >`rain on day 0 forecast' verifies if any rain is recorded on day 0 and/or >day -1 >and/or day +1. This interpretation includes the scenarios > > fcst obs that produce a "hit" >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >day -1 R - - R R - R >day 0 R - R - R - R R >day +1 - - R - R R R > >Likewise for `no rain on day 0' forecasts: > > fcst obs that produce a "hit" >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >day -1 - R - - R R - >day 0 - - - R - R - R >day +1 - - - R - R R These tables are far from complete as they ignore the built in rule dependancies on whether the previous and next forecast days are "R" or "-" so these combinations do not automatically hit and in many cases will not hit. A better way to show it in tables follows (best viewed with a monospace font). This table shows the 8 possible cases (C1 - C8) of combinations of "R" and "-" over any 3 day set of obs or forecasts d-1 d0 d+1 C1 - - - C2 - - R C3 - R - C4 - R R C5 R - - C6 R - R C7 R R - C8 R R R The next 2 tables show the 64 possible combinations of these 8 cases where a hit = 1 and a miss = 0, the first table being for rain days and the second for no rain days. Possible Rain day Hits out of all 64 combinations of the 8 cases: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 C3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 C4 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 6 C5 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 C6 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 6 C7 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 6 C8 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 7 Tot 37 6 4 7 6 4 0 6 4 37 57.8125% Possible No Rain Day Hits out of all 64 combinations of the 8 cases: C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 C1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 7 C2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 6 C3 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 6 C4 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 4 C5 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 6 C6 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 C7 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 4 C8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tot 37 4 6 0 4 6 7 4 6 37 57.8125% You can see from both the above tables that the correct application of the set of rules results in 37 hits out of 64 possible case combinations, or a chance of 57.8125% of getting a hit out of a case combination chosen at random, wheras with Haralds direct hit method there is a 50% chance (2 of 4). 57.8125% to satisfy Ken's +-1 day leeway is not a large margin above the 50% chance of Harolds method, and means scores above 57.8125% are doing better than purely random chance. >Unlike Carl's scheme, I do not include any dependencies on day -1/+1 >forecasts into >the day 0 forecast verification. With _my_ "leeway-inclusive" >verification scheme >a mindless "it never rains in Sydney" forecast would verify on all days >but the 16th >(17th too early to tell): I have included your mindless "it never rains in Sydney" forecast in my spreadsheet, and whilst it hits on every no rain day as expected, it does not have any hits on rain days, and is dragging it's feet in the total hits. Here are the results so far using my controlled +-1 day leeway method: Rain Total Rain Day Hits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 6 3 3 2 2 0 50% 50% 33% 33% 0% NoRain Total No Rain Day Hits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 9 8 8 8 9 9 89% 89% 89% 100% 100% All Total Hits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 15 11 11 10 11 9 73% 73% 67% 73% 60% >I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from >assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. As shown above, if the +/- day verification is applied in a tightly controlled manner it only raises the level of chance from 50% to 57.8125%, so is not a big departure from the direct hit method. As weather forecasts from the BoM are usually limited to 4 days ahead, and the furthest I see given on the TV weather forecasts is only a few extra days ahead (and notoriously unreliable), I feel that any method that gives forecasts weeks, months, years, and even decades ahead is worthy of being allowed the forecasters stated +-1 day leeway when assessing accuracy provided suitable controls are included in the assessment method, and the same controls are also applied to any other 'forecasts' used for comparison. >In my more conventional hit = (R R, - -) scheme the current score >has advanced to > > RNG#1: 11/14 > RNG#2: 10/14 > Ken: 9/14 > RNG#3: 9/14 > >Cheers, >Harald Harald's updated table is pasted below. Regards, Carl. Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless Jan 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - 18 ? - - - - - 19 ? - - R - - 20 ? R - - - - 21 ? - R R - - 22 ? - - - - - 23 ? - R - - - 24 ? R R R - - 25 ? R - - - - 26 ? R - R - - 27 ? R - R - - 28 ? R R - R - 29 ? - - - - - 30 ? - R - R - 31 ? - - R - - ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 07:43:37 +1100 From: Ross Wilson X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.61 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: lack of cloud in tropics.. X-Sender: (CWW_External) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David Happy New Year from Orange, where the weather has been remarkably mild for mid summer .. very pleasant and enjoyable, which is more than can be said for most Jan/Feb periods. But give it all time!! Just like to thank you for this email to the list. Your comment explain a great deal about our protracted period of dry weather, which I could not readily understand. You might not that your last link could not be displayed (restricted access)! Happy New Year, and keep up please, your informative and welcome comments on current met events that concern us all! Regards Ross (Orange, NSW) David Jones wrote: > > > > >Hi all tropos > >Have you noticed that most of the cloud developments of the Australasian = > >tropics have all but disappeared over the last two days, just as if the = > >area has sucked in a huge breath...but will soon exhale!. Also the = +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p127-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.127] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold In Brisbane Tonight Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 12:35:34 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi I see the temp actually fell to 17C at YBBN. NZAA down to 18C. Not often that we are warmer. Glad to see its cooler in Brisbane for NZ Cricketers. Cheers Steven W ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 2:09 AM Subject: aus-wx: Cold In Brisbane Tonight > Hi all, > > Geez, only January 18 and I've already head to search for an extra > blanket - thought it was rather cool in my room, outside temperature a > chilly 19.2C!!! It's the coldest it's been at this time of night > (11:05pm) for months! Could need the doonah with DPs of only > 15C...stupid Quidge! Most places are hovering just above or below the > 20C mark. > > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 12:10:39 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's (fwd) Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane. >Morning all, > >For those of us who are statistically challenged (for the simple resaon that >we haven't done Stats since university), if you allow a +/- 1 day leeway, >doesn't that actually improve your chances of scoring a 'hit' by something >in the order of 300%? > >Jane True if there are no constraining rules. If you look in my recent answer to Harald you will see that because of the constraining rules my method only increases the chance of scoring to 57.8125% from 50% using the direct hit only method. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 12:09:30 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John. >Hi Carl. > >I must admit to being a bit confused by your argument, as I think there is >no such thing as a certain hit day. If a +-1 day leeway method is used where something can score on it's own day and on the 2 adjacent days without any constraints, any "-" day adjacent to a "R" day will score as an "R" if it rains on that day or as an "-" if it does not. This is a 100% certain scoring day, as it will score as one or the other regardless of whether it rains or not. >If I apply the method that any non-hit >day is taken as a hit day provided that it is adjacent to a hit day >(forwards or backwards), then by inspection of the table I get: > > Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 >Tot: 11 13 13 12 > 84.6% 100% 100% 92.3% Yes, but that is not the method proposed. Ken's +-1 day leeway is stated on his website and in his almanacs, so it needs to be accounted for without getting a large number of days that hit whether it rains or not. My solution was that the +-1 day rule applied if a given "R" or "-" missed on it's own day and an adjacent "R" or "-" also missed on it's own day but hit on the first mentioned day, and as detailed in another email this only increases the chance of scoring on an observed "R" day or an "-" day from 50% to 57.8125%. There are no days where it scores whether it rains or not. > >I think to be fair to the method, in which you are trying to make the hit a >bit 'fuzzy' to pick up correlation, then on your +-1 day events you should >only allocate them a partial hit, i.e., 0.5 not 1.0. On that basis you get: > > Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 >Tot: 10 11.5 11.5 10.5 > 76.9% 88.5% 88.5% 80.8% I toyed with values other than 1 or 0, but it made nonsense of hit or not hit, it either rained or it did not rain, and if a forecast scores as a hit on the same day, it should not also be allowed to score as a hit on an adjacent day that missed on it's own day. My method, spelled out in the rather complex set of rules I posted a couple of days ago, ensures this is the case in all possible situations. > >Which still puts the RNG's ahead in all cases, Ken's last 3 successive >non-hit days being the critical discriminating factor. > >Anyhow, I think the sample is at present far too small to bear any >significant result from statistical analysis. True. When the run is complete it can only reveal trends at best. You must admit it is an interesting exercise. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Internet: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: lightning - Bathurst area, To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 14:47:23 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 19/01/2002 02:47:31 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI All. Well after reading these posts looks like I may have a busy day. Im working from 2pm onwards and noticed lightning around Mt David/Trunkey Creek South of Bathurst, also lightning appearing N of Cobar now. GPATS really firing. Some nice dark clouds appearing outside window here. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [216.142.233.73] From: "Catherine Elliott" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Regarding current conditions. Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 15:42:28 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Jan 2002 04:42:28.0667 (UTC) FILETIME=[B30558B0:01C1A0A3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hey guys, loving the warmer weather for victoria!!!? I have another question for you. why does it feel so hot in Frankston, when we only have a temperature of 24.7, is it the humidity of 54 or the dew point of 14. is it because the temperature is only measured by the air not the ground or something along those lines??? anyway i hope that you are all enjoying this lovely Vic weather and i hope we can expect more of it to come. thanks catherine _________________________________________________________________ Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW Storm advice To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 15:47:57 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 19/01/2002 03:48:04 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1516 on Saturday the 19th of January 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: Central Tablelands This advice is valid until 6pm and it should not be used after this time. Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing damaging winds and very heavy rainfall with possible flash flooding ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 15:04:21 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: Re: Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier. >Mmmm... Sent this 3 hours ago and it still hasn't turned up on the list, yet >a post I sent a few minutes ago has. Will try again. Apologies if you get >this twice. I only got it this time. > >Jane wrote: > >> For those of us who are statistically challenged (for the simple >> resaon that >> we haven't done Stats since university), if you allow a +/- 1 day leeway, >> doesn't that actually improve your chances of scoring a 'hit' by something >> in the order of 300%? > >and Harald wrote: > >> I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from >> assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. > >Indeed, in an average Australian climate where it rains 12 to 15 days a >month, it virtually guarantees you success no matter what dates you pick, >and the RNG's are probably going to triumph. > As I replied to Jane, true if there are no constraining rules. If you look in my recent answer to Harald you will see that because of the constraining rules my method only increases the chance of scoring to 57.8125% from the 50% chance using the direct hit only method. >I find the contest most enjoyable and diverting, and look forward to the end >of month results. > >However, it also points up some of the crazier aspects of verification as a >whole. > >Public forecasts are, by their nature, rather fuzzy, subjective descriptions >of the likely nature of forthcoming weather over a broad area. About the >only hard facts they contain are forecast max and min temps. Statistical >verification craves hard information and numbers, so in the Bureau it's the >max and min temps that seem to have been the basis for most verification >work. > >But your average punter takes the words s/he hears in the forecast and >converts them into a mental picture of the day(s) to come. Sunny, wet, hot, >cold. To say a forecast of "fine" weather for Sydney Metro is wrong because >0.2mm fell at Mascot applies a literal meaning to "verification" that is >absurd. So does saying a forecast of "rain" is correct because 0.2mm fell at >Mascot. Verification of public forecasts needs to get out of the domain of >measurements and figures, and into the domain of semantics. > >The forecast reads "scattered showers near the coast in the morning". The >forecast would only verify true if sufficient precipitation in the form of >showers fell over sufficient area to be deemed "scattered" that was close >enough to the coast to be deemed "near". Oh, and the area deemed not to be >"near" must remain showerless. Somewhere in this process, subjective >judgements must be made. And if an errant shower strayed "inland", does it >invalidate the forecast? No, but it does reduce its validity, so there is a >place for relative accuracy too, not just absolute, yes/no, >correct/incorrect forecasts. But despite the subjectivity and fluffiness, >the subsequent verification will be a lot more meaningful and accurate in >human terms than saying that 0.2mm at Mascot verifies a wet forecast of any >description for Sydney metro. I agree. At the very least there should be some fuzzy logic applied to verification schemes. I would like to see Harald post the actual recorded amount of any rain observation in his verification scheme so we are in a better position to assess from a subjective viewpoint whether we consider that it really is a rain day, for as you point out above, 0.2 mm at Mascot seems like a rather small amount to qualify as a rain day. > >Semantic verification would also point up some of the inadequacies of >current forecasting in exposing the degree of fluff factor they contain. >"Rain developing later" -- when is "later". With the right form of words, >you can create a quite credible looking forecast that is meaningless -- and >useless. > >Methinks some long-range forecasters, though no doubt well-intentioned, >could be perceived as masters of the art. The usefulness of LR forecasting of the kind done by Ken Ring is most appreciated in rural areas where farmers want some kind of guide for their planning as to when to do certain things like planting and harvesting. The timing of the arrival or non-arrival of significant rain is critical to their operations. Conventional forecasts are useless for their long term planning needs and climate forecasts like "40% chance of above average rainfall in SE Qld between January and May" do not adequately meet their needs. Anecdotally, many farmers swear by the overall reliability of LR forecasts, as evidenced by the feedback from them to the LR forecasters, and as most of them are rather strapped for cash they would not continue purchasing the yearly Almanacs or specific localised forecasts if they found that they were unreliable much of the time. The absurd claims by some in the met community that farmers using LR forecasts only remember the times when the LR forecasts were correct and forget about the times they are wrong are an insult to the intelligence of both the farmers and the met persons that make them. If crops failed because LR forecasted rains did not arrive at planting time or because the LR forecast of sufficent rainfall spaced through the growing period for the choice of crops was made when a drought actually eventuated, or if harvests were ruined by the arrival of heavy rain when the LR forecast said it would be fine for that week, it would surely make an impact on any farmers opinion of LR forecasting! To underline this, the BoM is often seen in the media to be attempting to counter negative public opinions as to how they often get it wrong after times when they actually did - surely these negative public perceptions are also just as easily aroused by wrong LR forecasts. > >Laurier Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Regarding current conditions. Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 16:04:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Catherine, You may be noticing the 'apparent' temperature especially when the wind dies down, even if it's for a minute or two - remembering that the sun is not far past its summer max during January. The temperature in Bayswater is currently 35.5C & it only feels like that when the wind drops - when there's a bit of a breeze, the temp feels lower - and then, I have a thermometer near the garage under cover, there is no air movement there at all & the temperature is 40C but feels more like 45C!! Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- > hey guys, > > loving the warmer weather for victoria!!!? > > I have another question for you. > > why does it feel so hot in Frankston, when we only have a temperature of > 24.7, is it the humidity of 54 or the dew point of 14. is it because the > temperature is only measured by the air not the ground or something along > those lines??? > > anyway i hope that you are all enjoying this lovely Vic weather and i hope > we can expect more of it to come. > > thanks > catherine +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Regarding current conditions. Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 16:33:31 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Not sure how it works or is figured out but I think it's called the heat index, meaning it can feel warmer than the actual air Temp. Currently 36.1 here with a dew point of 10.6, heat index 36.1. ----- Original Message ----- From: Catherine Elliott To: Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 3:42 PM Subject: aus-wx: Regarding current conditions. > hey guys, > > loving the warmer weather for victoria!!!? > > I have another question for you. > > why does it feel so hot in Frankston, when we only have a temperature of > 24.7, is it the humidity of 54 or the dew point of 14. is it because the > temperature is only measured by the air not the ground or something along > those lines??? > > anyway i hope that you are all enjoying this lovely Vic weather and i hope > we can expect more of it to come. > > thanks > catherine > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: http://mobile.msn.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: NT ASWA Meeting Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 18:01:51 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all - Just a quick mail to let you all know that we had 15 people at last nights NT ASWA meeting, with 3 new members and another possible 12 or so.
 
Had a great night, and was a nice way to say bye to Chris from SA who had been visiting the NT.
 
Rgds
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com
Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au
ICQ: 111144666
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 20:52:18 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 19/01/2002 08:52:25 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1914 on Saturday the 19th of January 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: North West Slopes & Plains Central West Slopes & Plains Upper Hunter, west of a line Murrurundi to Denman to Putty Upper Western, northeast of a line Tibooburra to Cobar Southern Tablelands, north of the ACT Central Tablelands This advice is valid until 11pm and it should not be used after this time. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 22:06:51 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Wx-Chase Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them in regards to performance and reliability... Thanks in advance! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 22:24:06 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI AC, I know that Chris from SA has one and raves (sorry about the pun) about it. They get very good reports. Rgds, Paul ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; "Wx-Chase" Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:36 PM Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > Hi all, > > As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar > called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of > options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague > one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more > chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). > The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and > the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with > purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who > had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them > in regards to performance and reliability... > > Thanks in advance! > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 22:30:16 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I should qualify that - A toyota Rav 4... d'oh!!! Heheh sorry AC. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Paul Mossman" To: Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 10:24 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > HI AC, > > I know that Chris from SA has one and raves (sorry about the pun) about it. > They get very good reports. > > Rgds, Paul > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Anthony Cornelius" > To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; > "Wx-Chase" > Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:36 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > > > > Hi all, > > > > As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar > > called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of > > options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague > > one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more > > chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). > > The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and > > the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with > > purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who > > had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them > > in regards to performance and reliability... > > > > Thanks in advance! > > -- > > Anthony Cornelius > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > > (07) 3390 4812 > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 23:17:20 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's > What constitutes an "R" day? Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. As Laurier pointed out in his "Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's" post, 0.2 mm at Mascot could be considered a bit of a stretch at classifying a day as a rain day - I think the BoM would have difficulty assessing a "Fine" forecast for Sydney as a total failure if 0.2 mm of rain happened to sprinkle into a rain guage in the Sydney area during the 24 hour period. He also pointed out that perhaps it is a bit of a stretch to apply observations from only one site as being representative of Sydney - it is obvious enough that Ken's forecasts apply to the Sydney area rather than just a small funnel sitting at at one location - e.g. "Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires.". These are subjects well worthy of input from people on the list in order to get some idea or even a consensus on what ought to be an acceptable minumum rainfall observation to constitute a rain day for this kind of exercise, and as to how observations are assessed, perhaps by taking the observations from all the official rain guages in the greater Sydney area into account and coming to a result. Perhaps Harald or someone that knows what stations are where and how to get the data could post a table of daily rainfall obs from all the official rain guages in the greater Sydney area for the period so far, and continue posting the obs daily so we all know what data we are working from. We can then evaluate the results of our little excercise with a human perspective as an alternative to the yes/no for an "R" of whatever value method from one small speck on a map. Harald's table is pasted below. Regards, Carl. Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless Jan 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 R R - R - - 07 R R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 R - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 R - - - - - 16 R - R - - - 17 R - - - - - 18 ? - - - - - 19 ? - - R - - 20 ? R - - - - 21 ? - R R - - 22 ? - - - - - 23 ? - R - - - 24 ? R R R - - 25 ? R - - - - 26 ? R - R - - 27 ? R - R - - 28 ? R R - R - 29 ? - - - - - 30 ? - R - R - 31 ? - - R - - ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 02:10:16 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Fwd: Re: Ken vs the RNG's > What constitutes an "R" day? Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I received the following from Ken Ring so I am posting it to the list. Regards, Carl. X-From_: ken at weatherman.co.nz Sun Jan 20 00:29:26 2002 From: "Ken Ring" To: "Carl Smith" Subject: Re: Ken vs the RNG's > What constitutes an "R" day? Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 03:45:32 +1300 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V5.00.2919.6700 Hi Carl and all Had I known that my loose comments, throwaway and chatty in their style, were going to be so microscopically analysed, I would have been much more specific. The exercise has been fascinating, and I am indeed honoured that this group has taken on the exercise at all. It means that my work could be rattling some belief systems. But I have to say, from a scientific standpoint, a righteous empirical pride must be reflected in a responsible procedure, not something that ends up scientifically wanting. A desperate search for nullism is fairly clear, which is a little unfortunate because a conservative bias cannot help but manifest in the design of the experiment and interpretation of results. In other words, if you look for it to fail then it will. Also: 1. My forecasts are worked out a year, sometimes two, ahead, but I am not tied to that either - they could just as easily have been done in 1972 for the days in question. That puts a different spin on my requested +/- 24hr allowance, and the RNG exercise doesn't recognise factorial value of being correct from, say, 30 years back. If such a longterm facility were proved, it must be of higher worth than forecasting a week ahead, or a year. Any lay person would agree that +/- 1 day in ten years is pretty fantastic, if proved possible. 2. I have always maintained that the value of LR done by lunar-function is in giving TRENDS or rain WINDOWS over 2 or 3 days. If in the period from 6th-28th, taking in 6/7th, 13-14, 20, and 24-28, there were 4 good rainfalls, predicted ten years beforehand, I would be extremely happy. Perhaps the RNG might consider factorising-in THAT. 3. I am not as concerned about daily on the spot and down to the wire accuracy as some of my critics seem to be. There is no way that I, a mere amateur with almost no equipment, can compete on an equal footing with the metservices and their access to all their technology. I think it obvious and reasonable that the RNG process factors in a handicap coefiicient, to be truly comparative. If it's good enough for racehorses and motor sports, all professionals, then it has to be relevant here too. Is that asking too much? Ken Ring ----- Original Message ----- From: "Carl Smith" To: "Aussie Weather List" Cc: "Ken Ring" Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 2:17 AM Subject: Ken vs the RNG's > What constitutes an "R" day? > Hi Harald and All. > > As Laurier pointed out in his "Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs > the RNG's" post, 0.2 mm at Mascot could be considered a bit of a stretch at > classifying a day as a rain day - I think the BoM would have difficulty > assessing a "Fine" forecast for Sydney as a total failure if 0.2 mm of rain > happened to sprinkle into a rain guage in the Sydney area during the 24 > hour period. > > He also pointed out that perhaps it is a bit of a stretch to apply > observations from only one site as being representative of Sydney - it is > obvious enough that Ken's forecasts apply to the Sydney area rather than > just a small funnel sitting at at one location - e.g. "Around the 6th/7th, > too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see the end of the > devastating fires.". > > These are subjects well worthy of input from people on the list in order to > get some idea or even a consensus on what ought to be an acceptable minumum > rainfall observation to constitute a rain day for this kind of exercise, > and as to how observations are assessed, perhaps by taking the observations > from all the official rain guages in the greater Sydney area into account > and coming to a result. > > Perhaps Harald or someone that knows what stations are where and how to get > the data could post a table of daily rainfall obs from all the official > rain guages in the greater Sydney area for the period so far, and continue > posting the obs daily so we all know what data we are working from. > > We can then evaluate the results of our little excercise with a human > perspective as an alternative to the yes/no for an "R" of whatever value > method from one small speck on a map. > > Harald's table is pasted below. > > Regards, > Carl. > > Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless > Jan > 03 - - - - - - > 04 - - - - - - > 05 - - - - R - > 06 R R - R - - > 07 R R R - - - > 08 - - - - - - > 09 R - R R R - > 10 - - - - - - > 11 - - R - - - > 12 - - - - - - > 13 - R - R - - > 14 - R - - - - > 15 R - - - - - > 16 R - R - - - > 17 R - - - - - > 18 ? - - - - - > 19 ? - - R - - > 20 ? R - - - - > 21 ? - R R - - > 22 ? - - - - - > 23 ? - R - - - > 24 ? R R R - - > 25 ? R - - - - > 26 ? R - R - - > 27 ? R - R - - > 28 ? R R - R - > 29 ? - - - - - > 30 ? - R - R - > 31 ? - - R - - > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 12:19:36 -0800 (PST) From: Jason Bush Subject: aus-wx: LIGHTNING OFF THE PILBARA COAST ! :) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello all :) FINALLY some action beginning up here in the NW...(My first lightning show since March 2001 !!!!!!!) had a very unexpected light show from a few cells that popped up just to the NW of Port Hedland just after 1am, which then gradually moved westward but remained offshore... Saw some really nice CG's between 1am and 3am! Hopefully more to come ! Currently a VERY muggy 28/25 here in Karratha at 4am! later today could be interesting :) Regards Jason Karratha, WA. www.karrathaweather.org __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul" To: "Aus Wx" Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 08:53:21 +1100 X-Mailer: PMMail 2000 Professional (2.20.2360) For Windows 2000 (5.0.2195;2) Subject: aus-wx: You're all wrong, say weather men X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id QAA05881 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com You're all wrong, say weather men The Sunday Mail RENEE MICKELBURGH 20jan02 IT HAS become a familiar scenario this summer: you just know it was one of the hottest days ever, yet the Weather Bureau insists the temperature reached only into the low 30s. How can this be when it felt like you were walking through a furnace? The Bureau of Meteorology fends off such questions every day, along with arguments from people whose own thermometers differ greatly from official readouts. Senior forecaster Mike Bergin says the bureau's dozens of thermometers are set to very specific measurements. "It's the way we expose the thermometer," he said. "We use a Stevenson screen, which is a box with louvred windows. "It's open to air but air can't blow through it. "It stands about 2m above ground. The thermometer can't be lying on the ground or it would be giving the ground temperature, not air temperature. "It's inside the box so it's not exposed to the sun." He said people often felt that it was hotter than the temperature reported by the bureau. "Where you get into problems is the way you measure the maximum temperature," he said. Personal thermometers often weren't placed in appropriate conditions and were sometimes exposed to the sun. "We're trying to measure the temperature of the air itself without the thermometer being affected by other influences. "There are places where it's hotter than where we put our thermometers. (But) we've got to have a standard way of taking observations." If you want to know the true temperature: • ENSURE the thermometer is out of direct sunlight. • KEEP it away from any heat sources. • MAKE sure it is off the ground and not affected by wind. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Paul Rands prands at efter-stormen.com - ICQ UIN: 137833127 "If you eliminate all other possibilities, what remains is the answer no matter how improbable it may appear." +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic trough. and cars Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 09:49:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Jan 2002 22:51:21.0107 (UTC) FILETIME=[D0308E30:01C1A13B] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all.
Looks like the trough moving through SE Aus is slowing down, should bring some interesting weather at last to Victoria although looks like a lot of mid level activity will suppress surface convection today, never mind I will take anything even embedded mid level storms especially tonight....regards Clyve H.
 
P.S. Off the subject of weather and on to cars I drove a Subaru coupe (1983) that clocked up 683,200k's and I never touched the engine or transmission,the only major problem were the C.V, joints they kept dying every 150,000k,s or so and they cost a fortune to replace.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: New Vicxtorian wx station online Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 10:00:14 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Morning all, on our .....5th day of summer for the season, A weather station in Ferntree Gully (eastern suburb of Melbourne at the southern end of Mt Dandenong) has been added to the list of current Victorian weather & wind reporting stations. http://www.stormchasers.au.com/wxcurrent.htm Thanks to Bussy for finding this one. Temp has risen 3C in the last hour & the birds are spending a lot of time in the pond already. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Feeding frenzy Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 09:59:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Nature's signs at work. Hundreds of swallows in a feeding frenzy on the "floating" insects at the end of a warm day. Once heard that this was a sign of a change to come. Have to wait and see.
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Bussy" To: "aussie-weather" Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 10:21:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "Carolyn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 11:12:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Anthony, A friend of mine has not long got a Subaru and he is very fussy about his vehicles as he takes them rock climbing. He made a thorough inspection of it, even to the point of crawling under the car on his back to see the clearence height!!!! He loves it. Carolyn ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; "Wx-Chase" Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 11:06 PM Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > Hi all, > > As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar > called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of > options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague > one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more > chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). > The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and > the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with > purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who > had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them > in regards to performance and reliability... > > Thanks in advance! > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Greg Spencer" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 09:12:05 +0800 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony, If your after a 4wd, try to get a hold of a late 80's or early 90's Holden jackaroo, they're cheap to run (I get about 800km out of a 70ltr tank with the one I use) its proven its ability off road, its a solid heavy car so being blown around while core punching or something isnt too much of a problem, its high off the ground with very good visibility, there's heaps of room in it, can sit comfortably 5 ppl and there's plenty of space in the back for all the chase gear ie camera's, tripods, food etc etc. Try to get a Petrol one if you can, they do come with a turbo diesel but they are far more expensive to repair if something goes wrong with the engine or turbo. If you look around you can pick one up for around $7000 in good condition out of the local paper. Plus being an older car its not going to matter as much if it gets a few hail dents here and there :)) Regards Greg -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Paul Mossman Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:00 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) I should qualify that - A toyota Rav 4... d'oh!!! Heheh sorry AC. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Paul Mossman" To: Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 10:24 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > HI AC, > > I know that Chris from SA has one and raves (sorry about the pun) about it. > They get very good reports. > > Rgds, Paul > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Anthony Cornelius" > To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; > "Wx-Chase" > Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:36 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > > > > Hi all, > > > > As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar > > called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of > > options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague > > one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more > > chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). > > The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and > > the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with > > purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who > > had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them > > in regards to performance and reliability... > > > > Thanks in advance! > > -- > > Anthony Cornelius > > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > > (07) 3390 4812 > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 14:21:07 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page...
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar

I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "TWC" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 15:37:10 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jason, Bussy,
    We've had the animated radars up for a couple of weeks now, very good for following thunderstorms and cold fronts, etc
 
Craig Arthur
The Weather Company
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 3:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi all,
Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page...
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar

I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 15:36:19 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Craig,
I think its a great to have the animated radar, I also think in technical terms that its very quick to load as I was able to load 50 images with in 1min on a standard 56k Connection. The only draw back about the animation is that, If I put the frame rate up to 10 and I'm viewing the whole 50 images, it puts heavy usage on my Computers CPU and HDD,  But on normal speed it works fine.
So I think its well worth it.
Jason
º¿º
 
----- Original Message -----
From: TWC
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 2:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi Jason, Bussy,
    We've had the animated radars up for a couple of weeks now, very good for following thunderstorms and cold fronts, etc
 
Craig Arthur
The Weather Company
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 3:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi all,
Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page...
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar

I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: NSW Storm advice Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 17:39:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDN28300

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1729 on Sunday the 20th of January 2002

The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice
for people in the following weather forecast districts:

Northern Tablelands
North West Slopes,south of Bingara
North West Plains, south of Wee Waa
Central West Slopes, north of Dubbo
Mid-North Coast, west of a line Dungog, Gloucester to Yarras
Upper Hunter, west of a line Dungog to Cessnock
Central Tablelands, north of Mudgee


This advice is valid until 9 pm and it should not be used after this time.

Thunderstorms are present in the advice area. Some of these are expected to
be severe, bringing damaging winds and  heavy rainfall.

From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 20:15:52 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Anthony I would not go past the Forester. Out of the three you mention it is the most off road capable, but at the same time giving highway performance that you expect from Subaru. I would also look at the Hyundai Sanfa Fe, lots more room and a nice looking unit. Another overlooked 4WD is the Suzuki Vitara, out of all mentioned it is by far the best off road. Don't buy a diesel like mine, I brought a Nissan Patrol, I have had it off road several times, but never anywhere the vechicles above except perhaps the Honda and Rav would not go. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; "Wx-Chase" Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 11:06 PM Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) > Hi all, > > As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar > called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of > options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague > one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more > chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626). > The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and > the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with > purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who > had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them > in regards to performance and reliability... > > Thanks in advance! > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: Subject: aus-wx: TC Dina a Monster! Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 21:12:20 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com WTXS31 PGTW 200900 IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 64.2E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 64.2E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z9 --- 19.0S0 60.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z2 --- 19.2S2 58.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 63.8E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND OF THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTIVE RING, AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19 NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR TO (APPROX) 30.0S3 60.0E6 SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL BASED ON THE 200000Z2 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Paul Mossman" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Great Met Terminology Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 21:15:21 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
We should start a file of great met terms used. I think it would make a great book. Have a look at this one used in Tc Dina's JTWC forecast.
 
"AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19
NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN"
 
 
He he great term bumped.
Rgds
Paul Mossman
NT State ASWA Rep
Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com
Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au
ICQ: 111144666
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Great Met Terminology Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 22:55:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com It doesn't just happen in the tropics...... Excerpts from Roger Edward's compilation of "colorful" (sic) text products from the NWS in the States...... ***************************** ANOTHER QUIET MORNING IN THE MET WASTELAND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 1125 DEGREES EXPECTED..... THE (that was the whole product - - just the word THE) SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WIND MAKES FOR A GOOD AFTERNOON TO RAKE LEAVES OR WHATEVER. THE OBSERVER HAS LOCKED HIMSELF OUT OF THE OFFICE AND CANNOT LOCATE A KEY. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE RESUMED AS SOON AS THE OFFICE IS OPENED. DISC: IT'S 9.30PM...DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOUR CAR IS? WELL...FCST A FLD YESTERDAY AND IT WAS DRY...FCST NO SNOW LAST NIGHT AND IT SNOWED...SO IF YOU IGNORE THIS DISCUSSION AND TRASH IT I'LL UNDERSTAND. ONE HUMONGOUS UGLY THUNDERSTORM WITH CONTUS LTG 7MI E MOVG S. CAN SEE THE HAIL IN IT FROM HERE. AMERICA IS A GREAT COUNTRY. BUT ANY CLAIMS TO ALTERING THE MOTIONS OF CELESTIAL BODIES IS A BIT TOO MUCH. EVEN ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA IS BEYOND OUR CONTROL...WHICH IS WHY THE WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO BUST FORECASTS FROM TIME TO TIME. USING LATEST FCST TECHNIQUES WE CALCULATE THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLDS IS MOVG SE AT EXACTLY ONE ERASER-HEAD PER 5 1/2 HRS. SKYWARN OBSERVER IN THE TOWN OF RIPLEY MEASURED HAIL DENSITY AT 86 PIECES PER SQUARE FOOT. More weather humour at: http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour2000.htm http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour2001.htm -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: Paul Mossman To: Aussie Weather Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 10:45 PM Subject: aus-wx: Great Met Terminology We should start a file of great met terms used. I think it would make a great book. Have a look at this one used in Tc Dina's JTWC forecast. "AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A DISTINCT (APPROX) 19 NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 KNOTS. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN" He he great term bumped. Rgds Paul Mossman NT State ASWA Rep Home Mail: ntstorms at bigpond.com Work Mail: Paul.Mossman at .nt.gov.au ICQ: 111144666 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 02:05:23 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's > Haralds Table revisited Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Ken informed me that "... my readings are pegged to gathered data somewhere in Sydney. I assume it would be at the airport ..." I decided to check the rainfall figures from the Sydney Airport, and thanks to Lauriers website page at http://ausweather.simplenet.com/current_rain.html I found the Rainfall Obs for all of Australia at ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/totals/daily/data/history/nat/ w here I was able to download the available daily rainfall observation files - there was no data for Jan 3 or 4 however it is unlikely that any rain fell then and Harald did not indicate that any did. I extracted all the Sydney Airport observations making the following table (best viewed in a monospaced font with no line wrapping): ________________________________________________________________________________ ____________ date : stn_ : pr_name : long : lat : stn : prec:p:d:o: yyyy-mm-dd: num : : : :height: :p:c:f: __________:______:________________________________________:______:______:______: _____:_:_:_: 2002-01-05:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-06:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-07:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 14.0:1:*:1: 2002-01-08:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 7.2:1:*:2: 2002-01-09:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-10:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-11:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-12:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-13:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-14:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-15:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: 2002-01-16:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 19.0:1:*:1: 2002-01-17:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 11.4:1:*:2: 2002-01-18:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.2:1:*:2: 2002-01-19:066037:SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO :151.17:-33.94: 6.0: 0.0:1:*:2: The rainfall totals are for the 24 hours up until 9 am of the given date, so are more representative of the previous day than the given date. Entering the actual rainfall figures where they were not 0.0 in Haralds's table: Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless Jan mm 03 - - - - - - 04 - - - - - - 05 - - - - R - 06 14.0 R - R - - 07 7.2 R R - - - 08 - - - - - - 09 - - R R R - 10 - - - - - - 11 - - R - - - 12 - - - - - - 13 - R - R - - 14 - R - - - - 15 19.0 - - - - - 16 11.4 - R - - - 17 0.2 - - - - - 18 - - - - - - 19 ? - - R - - 20 ? R - - - - 21 ? - R R - - 22 ? - - - - - 23 ? - R - - - 24 ? R R R - - 25 ? R - - - - 26 ? R - R - - 27 ? R - R - - 28 ? R R - R - 29 ? - - - - - 30 ? - R - R - 31 ? - - R - - Ken said in an email I have already posted to aus-wx: >1. My forecasts are worked out a year, sometimes two, ahead, but I am not >tied to that either - they could just as easily have been done in 1972 for >the days in question. That puts a different spin on my requested +/- 24hr >allowance, and the RNG exercise doesn't recognise factorial value of being >correct from, say, 30 years back. If such a longterm facility were proved, >it must be of higher worth than forecasting a week ahead, or a year. Any lay >person would agree that +/- 1 day in ten years is pretty fantastic, if >proved possible. >2. I have always maintained that the value of LR done by lunar-function is >in giving TRENDS or rain WINDOWS over 2 or 3 days. If in the period from >6th-28th, taking in 6/7th, 13-14, 20, and 24-28, there were 4 good >rainfalls, predicted ten years beforehand, I would be extremely happy. >Perhaps the RNG might consider factorising-in THAT. Anyone can see from the table above that in terms of forecasting the timing and duration of rain windows with a +-1 day leeway that Ken has done remarkably well so far for a method that some say can not possibly work. He was spot on for the first observed 2 day rain window and, if we treat the rather paltry 0.2mm that was recorded on the 17th as being insignificant in the context of rain window trends, the duration of the second rain window was right but the timing of it's arrival was 2 days out, being 1 day outside Kens leeway, athough it did begin within 1 day of the duration of Kens forecast window, so was not a total bust on timing either. The statistical analysis we have undertaken so far, whilst a quite interseting exercise in itself, is essentially invalid in terms of forecasting rain windows, as it excludes the real intention of the LR forecast - i.e. rain windows of variable duration rather than just rain/dry days - athough this important distinction was not clearly understood at the start of the exercise. I am already considering ways to analyse a method that is claimed to be able to predict variable duration rain windows within +-1 day and make up a spreadsheet.... As for the RNG's, in terms of forecasting rain windows they are clearly inadequate with their scattering of "R"s - we might as well be comparing apples with oranges - perhaps Harald might like to re-configure the RNG's to try to forecast random numbers of rain windows of random duration with random arrival dates? Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Forecast55 at hotmail.com Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 17:08:04 GMT To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Check out Weatherman at Amazon.co.uk X-Amazon-SPTF-Sender: Forecast55 at hotmail.com X-Amazon-SPTF-Sender-IP: [212.159.1.3] X-Amazon-SPTF-Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 17:08:04 +0000 (UTC) X-Amazon-SPTF-Recipient: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Amazon.co.uk: A Glance: Weatherman

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Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 10:09:52 -0800 (PST) From: Jason Bush Subject: Re: aus-wx: LIGHTNING OFF THE PILBARA COAST ! :) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey ppl ! Another nice thunderstorm line has developed off the Pilbara Coast north of Karratha tonight, stretching all the way back east inland to Marble Bar. Crossing the coast in the vacinity of Port Hedland which has had 11.6mm to 12:30am WST. Check out the radar for the NW ! Just got off the roof after watching an awesome display of CG's and CC's from the cell about 50kms N/NW of Karratha. Unfortunately the line of storms is moving north away from me :/...ahh well still GREAT to have lightning back NEAR Karratha !! BTW we had 0.6mm of rain from a light shower last Thursday night which was my first drop of rain since July 21st !!! When we had a massive 1mm before that the last DECENT fall was all the way back in March last year when 10.6mm fell on the 19th. Hopefully this major dry spell for Karratha will end soon ! Regards Jason Karratha, WA. www.karrathaweather.org __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2002 10:19:55 -0800 (PST) From: Jason Bush Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Dina a Monster! To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Paul and all, That's quite an impressive TC there ! with more strengthening still to come going by JTWC forecasting 150kts sustained gusts to 180kts in 36hrs ?! at !$ WOW WEE :) Just wondering when OUR season is going to get it's act together..even though we've had 3 TC's in Australian waters already only one being TC Bernie has affected the coast. Hopefully the Tropics will explode again soon! :D Regards JJ Karratha, WA. www.karrathaweather.org --- Paul Mossman wrote: > WTXS31 PGTW 200900 > IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS > 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DINA) WARNING NR 006 > 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE > --- > WARNING POSITION: > 200600Z8 --- NEAR 18.0S9 64.2E2 > MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS > POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM > POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE > PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT > RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S9 64.2E2 > --- > FORECASTS: > 12 HRS, VALID AT: > 201800Z1 --- 18.5S4 62.5E3 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT > RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS > --- > 24 HRS, VALID AT: > 210600Z9 --- 19.0S0 60.4E0 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT > RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS > --- > 36 HRS, VALID AT: > 211800Z2 --- 19.2S2 58.4E7 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT > RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > OVER WATER > 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS > --- > EXTENDED OUTLOOK: > 48 HRS, VALID AT: > 220600Z0 --- 19.6S6 56.3E4 > MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT > RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM > RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT > > 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT > OVER WATER > 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT > OVER WATER > 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT > --- > REMARKS: > 200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 63.8E7. > TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DINA), LOCATED > APPROXIMATELY 110 NM > NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, HAS TRACKED > WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD > AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING > POSITION IS BASED > ON 200530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING > INTENSITY IS > BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 > KNOTS. IMAGERY > ANALYSIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND OF > THE TOPS OF THE > CONVECTIVE RING, AS WELL AS THE EMERGENCE OF A > DISTINCT (APPROX) 19 > NM EYE. THEREFORE, WE BUMPED UP THE INTENSITY TO 130 > KNOTS. A > BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD > FROM THE SOUTHERN > TIP OF MADAGASCAR TO (APPROX) 30.0S3 60.0E6 SHOULD > INFLUENCE A > GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST > PERIOD. OUR FORECAST > IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN, > GFDN, UKMET > SPECTRAL) AND THE DEEP LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL > BASED ON THE > 200000Z2 NOGAPS RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT > AT 200600Z8 IS > 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.// > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather > your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Big Things continued Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 11:22:54 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Jan 2002 00:22:55.0208 (UTC) FILETIME=[C5579680:01C1A211] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Re. the recent discussions about towns and big things (Stanthorpe's thermometer), I heard on radio on the weekend that Tully is planning to build the giant gum boot, to mark its status as having recorded the highest ever annual rainfall in Australia (for a town that is).  Apparently this happened in 1950 and amounted to 7.6 metres.  The big gum boot will be 7.6 metres high and sealed off to stop rain entering it.  Babinda and Topaz have claims to be wetter towns or locales (whether Topaz is a town, is a moot point!), on average, but Tully is claiming that they have recorded the highest rainfall, ergo the big gum boot.


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+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Subject: Re: Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's (fwd) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 12:26:39 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Carl, Laurier, remaining readers, > I would like to see Harald post the actual recorded amount of any rain > observation in his verification scheme so we are in a better position to > assess from a subjective viewpoint whether we consider that it really is a > rain day, for as you point out above, 0.2 mm at Mascot seems like a rather > small amount to qualify as a rain day. It is reasonably obvious that a truly adequate rainfall forecast verification scheme would be far more complex than my hits = (R R; - -) toy scheme. After all, rainfall is a 3-dimensional (2 space, 1 time) field, and a single point forecast intended for (x*, y*, t*) can't begin to comprehensively describe rain = rain (x,y,t). Herein lies the trouble of verifying a complex time-evolving field - any point forecast methodology can easily take refuge in the complexity of the forecast/verification process, and nothing much at all might be learned after truckloads of work. Yes, a better than toy-scheme verification approach must look at spatial and temporal variations of the rain field. If it doesn't, a point rainfall forecast for the location (x*,y*) and time t* might not verify because the deluge of the century terminated 6 metres east of the obs site, or started 6 seconds after midnight on the following day. It gets worse, the rainfall amount plays a role as well. A negligible 0.2mm of rain "verify" a rainfall forecast less convincingly than 22mm, right? What about 0.4mm, not enough, then what about 0.8mm ... I think we see the problem. I don't think a fully adequate (?) highly complex point rainfall forecast verification scheme is going to give us a commensurate amount of new insights into the "Ken versus the RNGs" contest. My hits = (R R; - -) toy scheme is good enough to give me an idea whether Ken's forecasts are doing significantly better than pure chance. If they do/will, maybe the next level verification complexity is warranted. Stay tuned, Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic) Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 17:27:57 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Jan 2002 06:27:58.0140 (UTC) FILETIME=[C481C7C0:01C1A244] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Anthony

I've got a 96 626 and it hasn't given me a moment's trouble - 116,000 km and still travels like a new car.  Not a great deal of power though (2 litres, 4 cylinder), a little low to the ground (in terms of clearance) and a slightly restricted turning circle.  Otherwise a very nice unit.

Before that I had an 84 626.  Did 330,000 km without touching the clutch and only had to replace the head gasket and did nothing else to the engine the engine.  Very reliable.

Michael

>From: Anthony Cornelius
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Wx-Chase
>Subject: aus-wx: Opinions on Cars (off-topic)
>Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 22:06:51 +1000
>
>Hi all,
>
>As some of you know, I'll be retiring my old chase car ('89 Telstar
>called 'Alex') in the near future...I've been going through lots of
>options and weighing up the pros/cons etc. One option (albeit a vague
>one), is to go all out and get a small 4WD, something a little more
>chaser-friendly then what I had my mind on (eg, second hand Vectra/626).
>The three that caught my eye were the Subaru Forester, Toyota Rav4, and
>the Honda CRV. I was just wondering if anyone had any experience with
>purchasing these cars in the past, or if they had friends/relatives who
>had purchased these cars - and wanted to know what they thought of them
>in regards to performance and reliability...
>
>Thanks in advance!
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com.
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Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 18:54:14 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Lightning photos Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A few lightning photos on SSC from a chase on Saturday evening. http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/ Enjoy! Matt Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "David Carroll" To: "Aussie Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Storms Humor Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 18:49:13 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
HI all.
 
Here is a story from the local paper in Bathurst.  
 
Electrifying  
 
A Bathurst motorist returning from Katoomba on Saturday afternoon had an electrifying experience just outisde Lithgow at the height of a torrential thunder storm. "On the opposite side of the road a lightning bolt struck the top of a telegraph pole, sending sparks flying about 20 metres into the air," he said. "Everything went into slow motion" during the three-second event which lit up the surrounding area "like a paddock-sized flash bulb". The motorist instinctively covered his head with both hands, managing to catch sight of the bolt, connecting with the metal plate at the top of the pole a couple of lanes away. The explosion caused sparks to fly from top of pole "like a Roman Candle". The motorist quickly grabbed the steering wheel, letting a few choice expletives loose, before continuing towards Bathurst although visibility was to only a few metres. Poor visibility  reduced the pace to 50km/h in a 100km/h zone before the traveller was forced to seek shelter beneath an overpass as hail the size of peanuts came pelting out of the sky.
 
 
 
From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning photos Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 19:16:13 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very Nice ! Stew ----- Original Message ----- From: "Matthew Smith" To: Sent: Monday, January 21, 2002 6:54 PM Subject: aus-wx: Lightning photos A few lightning photos on SSC from a chase on Saturday evening. http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/ Enjoy! Matt Smith +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar Error. Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 18:40:17 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Craig,
There was one other thing I forgot to mention about the new Animated radar...
Its when I download the Java component and have it installed... I then try and use Internet banking and it doesn't work..... Its because of the different Java component, I'm
I'm not sure if its a Bug in the Java console or maby if the Java code has to be changed.
Regards
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: TWC
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 2:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi Jason, Bussy,
    We've had the animated radars up for a couple of weeks now, very good for following thunderstorms and cold fronts, etc
 
Craig Arthur
The Weather Company
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 3:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi all,
Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page...
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar

I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
X-Authentication-Warning: fluffy.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 20:06:41 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Well after hearing about peoples encounters with dust devils over the last couple of weeks, I was desperate to get some more dust devil action myself. I headed up to Mildura on Saturday and I wasn't disappointed. Unfortunately, the still captures don't do the dust devils justice, but you can view them here: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_19/today.html I saw over 30 dust devils with a couple of doozies that rank right up there with what John captured! The light winds 2-3 knots, gusting to 6 probably kept numbers down, but for those that did form, they were able to persist for up to 10 mins. If I can continue to see dust devils like that all the time, then I'm not too fussed if I never see a tornado! Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: TD for Coral Sea. Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 19:25:20 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Just a quick check on the weather and the BOM is predicting a Low to form in the Coral Sea late this week... The NRL weather company have all ready got a tab on it at the moment, So It might be worth while keeping an eye for it.. Its current stats is : 98P.INVEST is located 17.0S8 174.8E, and wind is estimated to be around 20 - 25 knts Regards Jason §¿§ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 20:56:17 +1100 From: Matthew Smith X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nice stuff Robert!!!!! Matt Smith Robert Goler wrote: > Hi all > > Well after hearing about peoples encounters with dust devils over the last > couple of weeks, I was desperate to get some more dust devil action > myself. I headed up to Mildura on Saturday and I wasn't disappointed. > Unfortunately, the still captures don't do the dust devils justice, but > you can view them here: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_19/today.html > > I saw over 30 dust devils with a couple of doozies that rank right up > there with what John captured! The light winds 2-3 knots, gusting to 6 > probably kept numbers down, but for those that did form, they were able to > persist for up to 10 mins. > > If I can continue to see dust devils like that all the time, then I'm not > too fussed if I never see a tornado! > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 22:45:22 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Robert, those are amazing shots!!! I saw some much smaller dust devils on the way up to Yarrawonga last year in similar temperatures(but not nearly as impressive as the ones that you & John captured) & a 'black' dustdevil which had picked up ash from burnt off paddocks!! Needless to say, the Commodore got a bit of off-road work in that day - remind me not to get a 4 wheel drive, I'd end up in places that would terrify me when I think of the places that Commodore has gone on a couple of TDU's!! A long day, getting home at odd hours like that.......but well worth it. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Goler" To: Sent: Monday, January 21, 2002 8:06 PM Subject: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura > > Hi all > > Well after hearing about peoples encounters with dust devils over the last > couple of weeks, I was desperate to get some more dust devil action > myself. I headed up to Mildura on Saturday and I wasn't disappointed. > Unfortunately, the still captures don't do the dust devils justice, but > you can view them here: > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_19/today.html > > I saw over 30 dust devils with a couple of doozies that rank right up > there with what John captured! The light winds 2-3 knots, gusting to 6 > probably kept numbers down, but for those that did form, they were able to > persist for up to 10 mins. > > If I can continue to see dust devils like that all the time, then I'm not > too fussed if I never see a tornado! > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Another useful product bites the dust.... Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 23:51:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Reading the following from Environment Canada, when I got to the bottom paragraph..........rather sad really - I find this sort of synoptic discussion to be incredibly useful & would love to be able to access a product like this in our part of the world What technological advances would render this redundant??? http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/forecast/textforecast_e.html?Bulletin=fpcn 21.cwhx 1019 MB low centre 46n 59w moving east 35 knots with warm front from low to 44n 53w and cold front from low to 43n 70w becoming warm front to frontal wave near 43n 79w. Cold front from frontal wave to 41n 78w to 30n 85w. Trough of low pressure extending westward from frontal wave. West northwest to east southeast ridge through New 1026 MB high centre near 52n 67w. Tropical depression Olga was located near 24.0n 67.5w moving west southwest 15 knots. Central pressure of Olga is estimated at 1004 MB with maximum sustained winds 30 knots. Olga continues weakening and is on the verge of becoming just a remnant tropical system. As a reminder today marks the final day of the hurricane season and routine tropical cyclone information and outlooks will no longer be provided unless a tropical depression tropical storm or hurricane actually forms in the north atlantic. As well...And as adveritsed...This marks the final issuance of the technical synopsis. Technological advances have rendered this product redundant and as such it shall now go the way of the Dinosaur. Users of this product are now directed to obtain this or similar information through other means. -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 13:31:54 +0000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Norman Lynagh Subject: Re: aus-wx: Another useful product bites the dust.... X-Mailer: Turnpike (32) Version 4.00 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com In message <004101c1a27a$5e501160$329937cb at jane>, Jane ONeill writes >Reading the following from Environment Canada, when I got to the bottom >paragraph..........rather sad really - I find this sort of synoptic >discussion to be incredibly useful & would love to be able to access a >product like this in our part of the world >What technological advances would render this redundant??? > The huge range of charts now available from many sites on the web convey the same information much more clearly than a few paragraphs of text could ever do. Norman. =================================================================== Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Tel: +44 (0)1494 870220 18 Kings Road Fax: +44 (0)1494 870221 Chalfont St. Giles Buckinghamshire E-mail:norman at weather-consultancy.com England =================================================================== +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 00:12:42 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's > Re: Your latest tables > Correction Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. >Hi Carl, > >I am trying to read your tables below. What do row/column headers denote? >Could you give me an example from table 1, row 3, column 4 (say). >What is a forecast, what is observed? >(C3,C4) is a rain day hit because ...? > >Cheers, Harald What I overlooked was that the columns across the page are the Obs and the rows are the Fcst when looking up the table, as due to the dependency rules the table is not transposable. (Too much wrestling with spreadsheet formulae, too little sleep!). Also, I had another look at the sheet I used to work out the probabilities and discovered I had incorrectly entered some of the formulae that produced the tables :-(....check....double check........then check again after you have done something completely different....:-) I corrected this and have produced a fresh table that I have extensively checked, and (so far) I have not found any errors (if you find any, please let me know!). Below you will find the case reference table, and below that the 2 (corrected) Case Comparison tables with axis identification, and some examples below that: This table shows the 8 possible cases (C1 - C8) of combinations of "R" and "-" over any 3 day set of Obs or Fcst: d-1 d 0 d+1 C1 - - - C2 - - R C3 - R - C4 - R R C5 R - - C6 R - R C7 R R - C8 R R R Case Comparisons that score Rain hits Obs> C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 Tot Fcst C1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 C3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 C4 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 C5 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 C6 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 3 C7 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 C8 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 =23 Tot 0 0 7 6 0 0 6 4 =23 =23/64 =35.9375% chance of a Rain hit Case Comparisons that score No Rain hits Obs> C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 C8 Tot Fcst C1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 C2 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 C3 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 C4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 C5 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 C6 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 C7 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 C8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 =23 Tot 4 6 0 0 6 7 0 0 =23 =23/64 =35.9375% chance of a No Rain hit All Hits Total =46 =46/64 =71.875% chance of any hit (a bit higher than my earlier figure!). Using the convention (Obs, Fcst): (C3, C4) is a Rain hit on d0: d-1 d0 d+1 C3 - R - (Obs) C4 - R R (Fcst) - because in this case both d0's have the value "R". (C2, C5) is a No Rain day hit on d0: d-1 d0 d+1 C2 - - R (Obs) C5 R - - (Fcst) - because in this case both d0's have the value "-". (C7, C5) is neither a Rain hit nor a No Rain hit on d0: d-1 d0 d+1 C7 R R - (Obs) C5 R - - (Fcst) - because in this case [d0 Fcst] has the value "-" and both [d-1 Fcst] and [d-1 Obs] have the value "R" which is already an "R" hit on it's own day so cannot be used for a d0 hit. (C7, C6) is a Rain hit on d0: C7 R R - (Obs) C6 R - R (Fcst) - because in this case the exclusion rules prevent [Fcst d-1] being a hit but [d+1 Fcst] is a hit. For those following the results of this exercise, using my +-1 day method: Rain RainHits(+-1day) Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 4 3 2 1 1 0 75% 50% 25% 25% 0% NoRain NoRainHits(+-1day) Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 14 12 12 11 13 14 86% 86% 79% 93% 100% All AllHits(+-1day) Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 18 15 14 12 14 14 83% 78% 67% 78% 78% Results greater than 71.875% are doing better than chance so far...which becomes more meaningful as sample size increases. And for comparison using Haralds Direct hit only method: Rain DirectRainHits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 4 2 2 1 0 0 50% 50% 25% 0% 0% NoRain DirectNoRainHits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 14 11 12 11 12 14 79% 86% 79% 86% 100% All AllDirectHits Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 18 13 14 12 12 14 72% 78% 67% 67% 78% Results greater than 50% are doing better than chance so far... which becomes more meaningful as sample size increases. Haralds Table with the addition of a column for the Sydney AP rainfall figures is pasted below -> I think most of us would agree that 0.2 mm on the 17th does not really constitute a Rain day. The formulae I am using are pasted at the very end of the email (I do not imagine there are many that are really very interested in those). Regards, Carl. ************************* SydneyAP Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless Rain mm Jan 0 03 - - - - - - 0 04 - - - - - - 0 05 - - - - R - 14 06 R R - R - - 7.2 07 R R R - - - 0 08 - - - - - - 0 09 - - R R R - 0 10 - - - - - - 0 11 - - R - - - 0 12 - - - - - - 0 13 - R - R - - 0 14 - R - - - - 19 15 R - - - - - 11.4 16 R - R - - - 0.2 17 - - - - - - 0 18 - - - - - - 0 19 - - - R - - 0 20 - R - - - - ? 21 ? - R R - - ? 22 ? - - - - - ? 23 ? - R - - - ? 24 ? R R R - - ? 25 ? R - - - - ? 26 ? R - R - - ? 27 ? R - R - - ? 28 ? R R - R - ? 29 ? - - - - - ? 30 ? - R - R - ? 31 ? - - R - - ************************* Formulae used to allow +-1 day leeway whilst constraining possible hits to those adjacent forecasts that do not have a direct hit on their own day: Direct Rain Hit: IF [d0 obs] = "R" AND [d0 Fcst] = "R" THEN DiRain = 1 ELSE DiRain = 0 Indirect Rain Hit: IF [d0 obs] = "R" AND [d0 Fcst] = "-" THEN IF ([d-1 obs] = "-" AND [d-1 Fcst] = "R") OR ([d+1 obs] = "-" AND [d+1 Fcst] = "R") THEN IndRain = 1 ELSE IndRain = 0 ELSE IndRain = 0 Rain Hit: IF DiRain = 1 OR IndRain = 1 THEN Rain = 1 ELSE Rain = 0 Direct No Rain Hit: IF [d0 obs] = "-" AND [d0 Fcst] = "-" THEN DiNoRn = 1 ELSE DiNoRn = 0 Indirect No Rain Hit: IF [d0 obs] = "-" AND [d0 Fcst] = "R" THEN IF ([d-1 obs] = "R" AND [d-1 Fcst] = "-") OR ([d+1 obs] = "R" AND [d+1 Fcst] = "-") THEN InNoRn = 1 ELSE InNoRn = 0 ELSE InNoRn = 0 No Rain Hit: IF DiNoRn = 1 OR InNoRn = 1 THEN NoRain = 1 ELSE NoRain = 0 ************************* ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: "Aus Weather" Subject: aus-wx: Chat Channel Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 03:28:40 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All; I just recently joined this list, so in time I may be asking some of you a lot of dumb questions :) Forgive me! Anyway the reason for this email is, how many of you out there would be interested in a 'real-time" chat channel ? I am an administrator on an IRC Network and if there was enough people interested I could make available for download a customised version of mIRC that is easy to setup and install, and configured to automatically join the channel. The channel would be for not only Australian weather watchers, but also for those interested worldwide, so if you have any friends overseas who you think may be interested in this, or are subscribed to any O/S mail lists such as this one, you may wish to pass this email onto the other lists. If you are interested in having and using the chat channel please email me direct so I can get an idea of how many users we would be catering for and if it is worth the effort to make up the customised IRC client. Cheers; Stew Website: www.kgl900.com Email: webmaster at kgl900.com ICQ: 123840773 MSN: kgl900 at giznet.com IRC: irc.giznet.org +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: Subject: Forecasting semantics WAS: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 14:30:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane wrote: > For those of us who are statistically challenged (for the simple > resaon that > we haven't done Stats since university), if you allow a +/- 1 day leeway, > doesn't that actually improve your chances of scoring a 'hit' by something > in the order of 300%? and Harald wrote: > I think the +/- day verification idea is moving too far away from > assessing the true usefulness of a rainfall forecast. Indeed, in an average Australian climate where it rains 12 to 15 days a month, it virtually guarantees you success no matter what dates you pick, and the RNG's are probably going to triumph. I find the contest most enjoyable and diverting, and look forward to the end of month results. However, it also points up some of the crazier aspects of verification as a whole. Public forecasts are, by their nature, rather fuzzy, subjective descriptions of the likely nature of forthcoming weather over a broad area. About the only hard facts they contain are forecast max and min temps. Statistical verification craves hard information and numbers, so in the Bureau it's the max and min temps that seem to have been the basis for most verification work. But your average punter takes the words s/he hears in the forecast and converts them into a mental picture of the day(s) to come. Sunny, wet, hot, cold. To say a forecast of "fine" weather for Sydney Metro is wrong because 0.2mm fell at Mascot applies a literal meaning to "verification" that is absurd. So does saying a forecast of "rain" is correct because 0.2mm fell at Mascot. Verification of public forecasts needs to get out of the domain of measurements and figures, and into the domain of semantics. The forecast reads "scattered showers near the coast in the morning". The forecast would only verify true if sufficient precipitation in the form of showers fell over sufficient area to be deemed "scattered" that was close enough to the coast to be deemed "near". Oh, and the area deemed not to be "near" must remain showerless. Somewhere in this process, subjective judgements must be made. And if an errant shower strayed "inland", does it invalidate the forecast? No, but it does reduce its validity, so there is a place for relative accuracy too, not just absolute, yes/no, correct/incorrect forecasts. But despite the subjectivity and fluffiness, the subsequent verification will be a lot more meaningful and accurate in human terms than saying that 0.2mm at Mascot verifies a wet forecast of any description for Sydney metro. Semantic verification would also point up some of the inadequacies of current forecasting in exposing the degree of fluff factor they contain. "Rain developing later" -- when is "later". With the right form of words, you can create a quite credible looking forecast that is meaningless -- and useless. Methinks some long-range forecasters, though no doubt well-intentioned, could be perceived as masters of the art. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1 Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 01:36:48 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jacob Subject: Re: aus-wx: Chat Channel Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com We already have one on IRC, its on the Austnet network, the channel is #weather. We have many regulars there that also use this list. Jacob At 03:28 AM 22/01/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hi All; > >I just recently joined this list, so in time I may be asking some of >you a lot of dumb questions :) Forgive me! > >Anyway the reason for this email is, how many of you out there >would be interested in a 'real-time" chat channel ? >I am an administrator on an IRC Network and if there was enough >people interested I could make available for download a >customised version of mIRC that is easy to setup and install, >and configured to automatically join the channel. > >The channel would be for not only Australian weather watchers, >but also for those interested worldwide, so if you have any >friends overseas who you think may be interested in this, >or are subscribed to any O/S mail lists such as this one, >you may wish to pass this email onto the other lists. > >If you are interested in having and using the chat channel >please email me direct so I can get an idea of how many users >we would be catering for and if it is worth the effort to make up >the customised IRC client. > >Cheers; >Stew >Website: www.kgl900.com > Email: webmaster at kgl900.com > ICQ: 123840773 MSN: kgl900 at giznet.com > IRC: irc.giznet.org > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 08:55:19 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 21 Jan 2002 21:55:19.0441 (UTC) FILETIME=[514E8810:01C1A2C6] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Robert

Nice shots Robert.  Certainly is a hot bed for dust devils up that way.  Your trapped bee observations were interesting too.  Visited Hattah Kulkine just after Xmas.  Dry as.  We were monstored by hungry pee wees/mudlarks in picnic area near a dry lake.

Michael

>From: Robert Goler
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: aus-wx: Dust devils on Saturday around Mildura
>Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 20:06:41 +1100 (EST)
>
>
>Hi all
>
>Well after hearing about peoples encounters with dust devils over the last
>couple of weeks, I was desperate to get some more dust devil action
>myself. I headed up to Mildura on Saturday and I wasn't disappointed.
>Unfortunately, the still captures don't do the dust devils justice, but
>you can view them here:
>
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_19/today.html
>
>I saw over 30 dust devils with a couple of doozies that rank right up
>there with what John captured! The light winds 2-3 knots, gusting to 6
>probably kept numbers down, but for those that did form, they were able to
>persist for up to 10 mins.
>
>If I can continue to see dust devils like that all the time, then I'm not
>too fussed if I never see a tornado!
>
>
>Cheers
>
>--
>
>Robert A. Goler
>
>School of Mathematical Sciences
>Monash University
>Clayton, Vic 3800
>Australia
>
>ph. +61 3 9905 4424
>email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
>--
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


Send and receive Hotmail on your mobile device: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Andrew Miskelly" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Animated radar Error. Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 09:14:02 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Message
I think you'll find it's got to do with the combination of MS IE's Java obscurities and the way the HTML pages call up their applet (you'll notice all the applets at the Sun Java site still work, as they should - http://java.sun.com). I have a copy of Netscape on hand for things like Internaet Banking that I need reliable Java support for.
 
Andrew.
 
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of The Weather Man
Sent: Monday, 21 January 2002 7:40 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar Error.

Craig,
There was one other thing I forgot to mention about the new Animated radar...
Its when I download the Java component and have it installed... I then try and use Internet banking and it doesn't work..... Its because of the different Java component, I'm
I'm not sure if its a Bug in the Java console or maby if the Java code has to be changed.
Regards
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: TWC
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 2:37 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi Jason, Bussy,
    We've had the animated radars up for a couple of weeks now, very good for following thunderstorms and cold fronts, etc
 
Craig Arthur
The Weather Company
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 3:21 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar

Hi all,
Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page...
Jason
º¿º
----- Original Message -----
From: Bussy
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:21 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Animated radar

I've been hiding !
How long have we had animated radar on weatherzone??
Bussy (Rutherglen, NE Victoria)
From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Hot then Cold... Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 09:54:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Temp has risen 3C in the last hour & the birds are spending a lot of >time in the pond already. > >Jane Boy what a difference a day makes, Jane! In Ferny Creek (400m up in Melbourne's Dandenongs) we got to 32.1C on Sunday, easily our warmest day for the summer/year, and I even had cause to water the garden after almost 3 nearly rainless weeks (only 4mm had fallen since January 2). The front drifted through almost without a whimper around 4pm, with a slow decline in temperature to a more comfortable ~20C by 6pm. Then yesterday. I woke to thick fog which persisted all day and light drizzly rain, which held our maximum temperature to just 15.2C (after a low of 14.8C). The rain became rather heavier last night, giving 23mm to 6:30am, and another minimum of 14.8C. On Sunday I was tempted to put the air conditioner on, then last night just about needed the heater.... BTW in light of the recent bushfires in Sydney, people might be interested that I went to a local Country Fire Authority presentation on Sunday morning. One thing that came out was there has not been a naturally occurring damaging fire in the area since the early 1960s (and that fire was due to a home owners carelessness with a backyard incinerator). This really unscored to me that it is a dangerous myth that wildfire in places like the Dandenongs is a common naturally occurring phenomenon; sure we will always get the occasionally naturally occurring fire, but overwhelmingly fires is the result of criminal activity, and needs to be viewed by the community as such. Regards, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Frankston... Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:00:22 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >why does it feel so hot in Frankston, when we only have a temperature of=20 >24.7, is it the humidity of 54 or the dew point of 14. is it because the=20 >temperature is only measured by the air not the ground or something along= >=20 >those lines??? > >anyway i hope that you are all enjoying this lovely Vic weather and i hop= >e=20 >we can expect more of it to come. > >thanks >catherine Catherine, I would bet that this is almost certainly an issue of the BoM thermometer being very exposed to Port Phillip Bay being only ~10-15m from the water. From experience, it is not unusual for it to be ~5C+ warmer only 500 metres inland, so while it was ~25C at the thermometer, much of Frankston may have been closer to 30C - eg on the weekend I measured 22C in the Portsea backbeach carpark, and 31C in Portsea itself (these are based on the Subaru thermometer, so are indicative only).... Cheers, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 09:33:42 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , Wx-Chase , Lightning List Subject: aus-wx: Chase Reports (Including December 30 Supercell) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, I've uploaded some more chase reports (3) at: http://www.downunderchase.com/stormchasing/01-02/index.html From Dec 29 to January 1 (I combined Dec 31 and Jan 1), December 30 is the main report, nice little meso, with some lightning captures/guster hail footage/captures! Certainly a great day! The storm on this day made a 90 degree turn when it become most intense! Dec 29 and 31 are lesser storm days but some lightning/captures none the less, and Jan 01 was a bust but I added it in as Dec 31 and January 1 were heavily contrasted days. I've also uploaded some December 22 damage photos from a supercell that went through Boonah, the photos are courtesy of the BoM - click on one of the December 22 chase links to see them! (One of the signs looks like it got hit by a truck!) -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "nandina morris" To: , "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hot then Cold... Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 10:33:06 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com David - I agree with your sentiments re fires occurring as a result of human intent. To me, this is just as much an act of terrorism as any other deliberate sabotage of life, livelihood and/or property. I was an infant in the '39 Black Friday fires which took our home, all our possessions, but left us our lives. Even a sniff of smoke strikes terror into me - after all those years. I think we must get a lot tougher in both our restrictions, policing, and punishment of arsonists. Cheers, Nandina ----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 9:54 AM Subject: aus-wx: Hot then Cold... > BTW in light of the recent bushfires in Sydney, people might be interested > that I went to a local Country Fire Authority presentation on Sunday > morning. One thing that came out was there has not been a naturally > occurring damaging fire in the area since the early 1960s (and that fire was > due to a home owners carelessness with a backyard incinerator). This really > unscored to me that it is a dangerous myth that wildfire in places like the > Dandenongs is a common naturally occurring phenomenon; sure we will always > get the occasionally naturally occurring fire, but overwhelmingly fires is > the result of criminal activity, and needs to be viewed by the community as > such. > > Regards, > > David > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.314 / Virus Database: 175 - Release Date: 1/11/02 +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Webmaster at kgl900.com" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hot then Cold... Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:17:42 +1100 Organization: www.kgl900.com X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hmm I was one of the first on the scene at the Ash Wednesday fires down near Warrnambool, it started just up the road from my parents place. I can honestly say I have never seen anything quite like what I did that day, and probably (hopefully) never will again. The only regret I have, is that I did not take my camera with me at the time (well I wasnt there to take pics) because I would have been able to get some excellent shots of rolling fireballs. It was quite a scary thing to see these coming at you. Stew. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Vorticity. Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 11:35:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Jan 2002 00:37:13.0786 (UTC) FILETIME=[EF81F1A0:01C1A2DC] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hello all.
It was interesting to follow the movement of a region of vorticity mainly between 500hpa and 300hpa over the last three days as this area moved from near to southwest WA to be located just north of Melbourne at 0900hrs this morning,this vorticity area had a marked influence of weather across a large area of SA and south east Australia, however I was a somewhat surprised at the very little interest (at  a public level ) shown by the BOM in its movement and the subsequent weather conditions that were generated. The trough through NSW is looking good for storms today.regards Clyve Herbert.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Good rains in Victoria Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 12:47:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, Comments made yesterday that the rain was only going to be of nuisance value.........were followed by some really useful falls across the state with most areas receiving between 10 & 20mm & a few good falls between 45 & 60mm to 9am Tuesday. The vorticity area continues to produce storms over Victoria today after triggering activity yester in SA - currently lightning within 200-500km of Melbourne on the ranges to the NE of Melbourne. Anyone going for a drive?? Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Low in E VIC To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 14:09:24 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Folks, VIC actually has a shot at some lightning. Surface obs as of 22/02 UTC show a (cyclonic) surface circulation over E VIC associated with some enhanced moisture advection into Gippsland. Several thunderstorms have initiated in the mass/mess of cloud (Mt Buller (VIC); E of Urana (NSW); ENE of Holbrook (NSW)(!!) and E of Tumut (NSW)). In NW flow the N side of the ranges has the advantage of orographic lift. The 23Z SWG sounding showed some CAPE and a decent unidirectional shear profile. The 23Z MML sounding showed deep moderate moisture and no significant shear, but was slightly colder (-14 C instead of -12 C) at 500 hPa. SSY had some good CAPE, but is in danger of some drying in NW flow as time goes on, but don't rule it out yet. I'll be monitoring the quadrangle Wagga-Sale-Mallacoota-Wollongong-Wagga for more developments. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 16:39:58 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The list is fairly quiet ... but the lightning tracker isn't - a very decent lightning show can be found in the area enclosed by Wagga-Bairnsdale-Canberra-Wagga. There's also a pocket of minor activity in the Wollongong-Sydney area, and some storms in NE NSW. This is one of VIC's better events that I have seen so far. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jasonb at postoffice.wa.bom.gov.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 4.3.2 Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 02:12:31 +0800 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jason Balhorn Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, just looking at the lightning tracker or gpats does seem to be some good activity around E Vic & SE NSW the eastern kimberly region in WA and just over the NT border do seem to be getting some good flashes. looks like some reasonable thunderies will be around tonight. Jason At 01:39 PM 22-01-02, you wrote: >The list is fairly quiet ... > >but the lightning tracker isn't - a very decent lightning show can be found >in the area enclosed by Wagga-Bairnsdale-Canberra-Wagga. >There's also a pocket of minor activity in the Wollongong-Sydney area, >and some storms in NE NSW. > >This is one of VIC's better events that I have seen so far. > >Harald > >-- >_________________________________________________________________________ >Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 >Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 >PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au >Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia >url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm >_________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 18:06:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - host1.ns4ua.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - world.std.com X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [0 0] / [0 0] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - ozthunder.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have not seen the soundings but the storms near Wollongong were very high based and looked moisture starved to me, this is not the conditions at surface where it is very muggy, but it appears that there is a stable drier layer above. It is a very weak seabreeze today, hardly 5 knots. The storms that formed convected right over the coast and became active about 5-10kms offshore. The SW is looking very dry, but there is activity on tracker and radar, I am hopeing that a stronger SE wind shift may bring storms, like those near Narooma at present. Michael ----- Original Message ----- From: "Harald Richter" To: "Aussie Weather" Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 4:39 PM Subject: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > > The list is fairly quiet ... > > but the lightning tracker isn't - a very decent lightning show can be found > in the area enclosed by Wagga-Bairnsdale-Canberra-Wagga. > There's also a pocket of minor activity in the Wollongong-Sydney area, > and some storms in NE NSW. > > This is one of VIC's better events that I have seen so far. > > Harald > > -- > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 18:21:13 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good rains in Victoria [and SA] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Good rains in parts of SA yesterday, concentrated in the Mid North. The Clare Valley to Barossa Valley area received 40-60mm with a maximum reading of over 80mm at Riverton I believe. Phil +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 22:47:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Jan 2002 11:49:52.0020 (UTC) FILETIME=[E6E3BD40:01C1A33A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Well, after a very very quick check of the obs and sat pic this morning (i didn't look at much else given that i got out of bed at 10:30am) and headed up the Hume Hwy. A weak surface feature was evident running N/S at about 146E and the upper trough was clearly visible on the sat pic and some drier air aloft could be seen cutting into the moist air from Echuca - Narrandera - Wagga - Albury so I headed for Albury hoping it was all going to move slowly enough for me to see something. Yes, I know...I'm a a sucker for punishment......... Anyway - I saw some nice Cb's in the very mosit air (the LCL was about 500m) from about Benalla onwards. I made it as far as Holbrook and watched the back end of some storms as they drifted into unkind chasing areas. It was clear that the area to the W of the Hume Hwy wasn't going to produce much else with W'lies pushing through and the TCu going up in the near vicinity of the hwy was starting to move more E'ly as the axis of the upper trough passed over the Holbrook region at about 4:30-5pm. Things just weren't really happening and I knew I needed to be quite a bit further E (or should've gotten out of bed earlier). I left the area at shortly after 5pm and the result for the day was a few photos and about 2 mins of video - oh and 775km. Regards, Andrew McDonald (captures might get done tomorrow) ----- Original Message ----- From: Michael Thompson To: Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 6:06 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > I have not seen the soundings but the storms near Wollongong were very high > based and looked moisture starved to me, this is not the conditions at > surface where it is very muggy, but it appears that there is a stable drier > layer above. It is a very weak seabreeze today, hardly 5 knots. > > The storms that formed convected right over the coast and became active > about 5-10kms offshore. > > The SW is looking very dry, but there is activity on tracker and radar, I am > hopeing that a stronger SE wind shift may bring storms, like those near > Narooma at present. > > Michael > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Harald Richter" > To: "Aussie Weather" > Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 4:39 PM > Subject: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > > > > > > The list is fairly quiet ... > > > > but the lightning tracker isn't - a very decent lightning show can be > found > > in the area enclosed by Wagga-Bairnsdale-Canberra-Wagga. > > There's also a pocket of minor activity in the Wollongong-Sydney area, > > and some storms in NE NSW. > > > > This is one of VIC's better events that I have seen so far. > > > > Harald > > > > -- > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Dec 17-19th Chase to NSW Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 23:53:14 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Jan 2002 12:55:09.0839 (UTC) FILETIME=[061779F0:01C1A344] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
 
While i'm in the mood I thought i'd do another chase report from back in December - you should get a laugh out of this.
 
On the afternoon of the 17th of December, this storm starved Victorian was perusing the models and a lovely trough was looking to linger across the Central Tablelands of NSW on the 17th and 18th with a significant upper trough to move through on the 18th.  Significant being -18C at 500mb over the Bathurst area. Coupled with low 30's temps and DP's in the low-mid teens and a dry line situation I couldn't resist.  The area of troughiness was forecast to hang around for almost a week and had it not been for my uni graduation on the 19th, I would've stayed in NSW and chased all week.
 
I headed up the Hume in my 1985 Ford Laser on the night of the 17th and stayed at Corowa at my uncle's house.  I got up nice and early on the 18th and after a quick check of the models, got on the road with Cowra - Bathurst as my general target area.  The mid levels were very unstable with AcCas all over the sky to the SW and S as the upper trough amplified over the area.  Things were looking quite nice.  I drove non-stop to Bathurst and just 10km out of town I stopped for a quick photo of some *solid* TCu going up to the W.  Static was already crackling across the am radio as storms developed on the ranges to my E (S of Lithgow) in areas with more mositure.  I arrived in Bathurst not long after 1pm and met up with Dann Weatherhead, Matt Pearce and James Harris who had headed out from Sydney to meet me/chase with me.  We waited in Bathurst for about 30 minutes waiting for something to become dominant and stand out and we eventually decided to head N towards Sofala and Mudgee as storms were going up in that area.  We were a little concerned at this time though as things were drying out very rapidly to our W as the westerlies (the trough) were pushing through further than had been progged. 
 
From a vantage point just N of Sofala we watched a weak (very) storm move off to the east.  It produced a few flashes of lightning and some rumbles of thunder but not much else.  The dry air could now be seen eating into the cumulus to our W now and we knew there was trouble.  We headed a bit further N and then E where we saw a few large cells about 100km to our E.  One was up over the Woolemi National Park and heading NE (red on radar and probably severe) and was not really an option to chase and the other was over towards Lithgow/Katoomba area which was looking very solid with a strong updraft and a very nice anvil.  I decided not to head into Lithgow and Sydney as I had to be back by 3pm the next day so I decided to head back to Bathurst.  The other guys headed onwards to Lithgow, hoping to catch the cell which was down that way at the time.  I reached Bathurst and had a change of heart.  I thought that since i'd driven that far I may as well head into Lithgow and Sydney and then go home via the Hume Hwy.  SO the chase was on again.  I ended up missing the best cells which tracked across the S parts of Sydney and the stuff which the other guys had chased had weakened considerably before any of us got near it.  I kept in contact with the other chasers and we soon discovered there was another weakish storm behind us which had developed out near Lithgow as we were heading down the range into Sydney.  This is where the fun and games started.......
 
As I was coming down the ranges I noticed something strange with my car.  When I pressed the brake, one of the lights on the dashboard would come on.  My clock was also looking a bot worse for wear and was quite faint.  I wasn't too sure what this was but didn't get overly concerned about it at the time.  I had arranged to meet the other guys somewhere in Richmond to watch as this storm produced a few CG's and CC's fairly close to us (i missed most of them as I got lost....hehe).  Eventually I realised my car had a problem when the headlights and dashboard lights were very dim.  I found the other guys who helped me find a bank and then I called the NRMA.  They said they'd be a while so we all went to a restuarant for dinner while waiting.  The NRMA guy arrived eventually and after some deliberation he replaced my battery (knowing full well that I had to be back in Melbourne the next day) and said "there you go - all fixed".  It was a big relief for me as I didn't want to miss my uni graduation (5pm the next day).  At about 8pm I said my goodbyes to the others and headed S to go home. 
 
It got dark quite quickly and Anthony Cornelius had informed me of some very active storms over the S coast region and as I was travelling S on the Hume Hwy I started to see flashes.  Not just a few but hundreds - literally - there was 4-5 flashes per second - the lightning was so constant that there were 20 second periods where no break occurred - just constant light.  I got very excited given the not so special chase so far.  This excitement was *extremely* short lived as the curse of NSW struck again.  Within two minutes of seeing this lightning and getting excited things started to go horribly wrong.  The dash lights went dim again and the headlights dimmed to a mere glow.  I was *extremely* concerned at this stage, not knowing how far I was going to make it or if I was going to make it home at all (in time for my Uni graduation).  Eventually I was driving blind (dangerous) and then suddenly there was nothing - I had no accelration - nothing.  I pulled over, stressing majorly.  My parents were going to kill me if I didn't get home for my graduation.  After calling some friends in Melbourne who helped me out by keeping me sane (just) I started to think a little mroe rationally.  I called NRMA again and was told the guy would be about 40-45mins.  I then called country link to see if any trains were running that I could catch home.  The XPT was running 1.5hrs late thanks to derailmants in Sydney and wasn't expected to reach Goulburn until 11:50pm.  I had an hour and 20 minutes to get into Goulburn and get my car sorted out and then get to the station.  The NRMA arrived and after some deliberation over the car he decided the alternator was "gone" (to put it *very* politely) and I was towed into Goulburn.  I'd explained my situation to the car guy and he was great about it - he called into the staiton on the way into town to check if there were any seats available on the train and what time it was due.  Unfortunately the staiton master couldn't tell me if any seats were available and that i'd have to wait until the train arrived to find out.  So, the stress was back on.  I went to the mechanics with the car and sorted it out to be fixed and then headed back to the station to wait for the train.  I sat and waited and waited and waited for the train....Matt Pearce and Anthony Cornelius were constantly interupted by me during the night as I was thinking of all the possiblities to get home in time for my gradiation.  I even reserved a seat on a flight from Sydney to Melbourne.  Matt Pearce was kind enough to offer me a lift from Goulburrn to Sydney airport had I required it even though he would've had to get up at 3am in order to do so <g>.  At one stage it was looking like i may have to sleep on a bench at the station.  The train evenutally arrived in Goulburn at 1:45am and I managed to get a seat (in first class - at half price....(the only good thing to happen for the entire trip)) and I arrived home at 10:30 on the morning of my graduation. 
 
The day after my graduation I headed back up to Goulburn on the train, intending to pick up my car and then to chase for two days as the trough remained over the Sydney - Hunter area still.  The train arrived in Goulburn at 6:30am and I couldn't get my car until after 8am so I wandered around town for a bit before finding a park bench which I slept on for about an hour.  Eventually I got my car and after some internal arguments between the angel and the devil in my mind I decided to not risk my car, my sanity or anyone elses sanity and I headed S for home.  This proved to be a STUPID move.  By the time I'd reached Yass, Anthony Cornelius rang me to tell me that Sydney's sounding had -14 LI's on it and Matt Pearce said CAPE was about 90,000j/kg.  I could even large storms way off to the WNW.  But, the angel kept winning the arguements and I kept heading south.  I ended up missing two classic storm days in NSW but I was happy to have my car home and my mum was happy I made it home for Christmas....hehe.
 
Overall, I covered 2200km, saw bugger all in terms of storms and spent $500 on my car and train fares.  Still, I got to see a lot of the NSW countryside (albeit a lot from the inside of a train) and I also got to catch up with some friends.
 
Hope you enjoyed reading this (I wasn't game to write this report back in December - due to the mere humiliation of the series of events that occurred).
 
Incidentally, the Laser has clocked 275,000km now and has been placed into semi-retirement as I have vowed to *never* let it venture interstate again.  It is restricted to local chases only.
 
Regards,
 
Andrew McDonald
(Macca)
X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 02:05:32 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNGs > Rain Windows Analysis Cc: Ken Ring Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Having worked out that Haralds method was lacking with regards to assessing rain windows, although quite interesting and useful as a first level of assessment. I have worked out a preliminary method to do this which is actually quite simple, although a little more complex than Haralds. I left Haralds No Rain days out of the analysis as I think that whilst it is perfectly applicable for the purposes of his method it is of little use for Kens stated aims of forecasting rain windows - I may include this and the totals so obtained in the next version, as it is useful to have the results from both methodologies displayed together. I have kept Haralds direct hit method for Rain days as "Rain Dir" for comparison, but it is not included in the total. I used a formula to distribute the rainfall over the 2 days covered in each obs, being 5/8 for the period from 9am to midnight on the previous day, and 3/8 for the period from midnight to 9 am on the Sydney AP obs day, in effect making both rain days - I could think of no other way to allow for the issue of what day the rain actually fell on. We are looking at rain windows, so although it makes things a little fuzzy it does not matter that much in this context. For the actual analysis, we are looking for 3 different factors and afterwards combining the results to give a total: Rain +-1day: The number of rain hits allowing +-1 day for any rain hit. Num Wind: Compares the number of Rain Windows so far. Rain Days: Compares the total number of Rain Days in the whole period so far. Total: Each of the above factors represents one third of the total. Chance: A pecentage worked out from the Obs and the period so far. All formulae can be sent to anyone that requests them, and I will put them on a webpage in the near future. Here are the results so far, the first set with a >0 mm rain threshold, the second with a >= 1 mm rain threshold - I did not bother including Mindless as it is 0% on everything: RainWindowsAnalysis - Rain > 0 mm Fcst Rain Rain Num Rain Total Dir +-1day Wind Days Ken 2 5 3/3 5/9 22% 56% 100% 56% 70% RNG#1 3 8 5/3 5/9 33% 89% 60% 56% 68% RNG#2 2 6 5/3 5/9 22% 67% 60% 56% 61% RNG#3 0 2 2/3 2/9 0% 22% 67% 22% 37% Chance > 45% 75% 30% 45% 50% RainWindowsAnalysis - Rain >= 1 mm Fcst Rain Rain Num Rain Total Dir +-1day Wind Days Ken 2 5 3/3 5/7 29% 71% 100% 71% 81% RNG#1 3 7 5/3 5/7 43% 100% 60% 71% 77% RNG#2 2 4 5/3 5/7 29% 57% 60% 71% 63% RNG#3 0 2 2/3 2/7 0% 29% 67% 29% 41% Chance > 35% 65% 30% 35% 43% Haralds Table (with fuzziness) SydneyAP Day Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 9am mm Jan mm 0 02 0 0 03 0 - - - - - 0 04 0 - - - - - 0 05 0 - - - R - 0 06 8.75 R - R - - 14 07 9.75 R R - - - 7.2 08 2.7 - - - - - 0 09 0 - R R R - 0 10 0 - - - - - 0 11 0 - R - - - 0 12 0 - - - - - 0 13 0 R - R - - 0 14 0 R - - - - 0 15 11.875 - - - - - 19 16 14.25 - R - - - 11.4 17 4.4 - - - - - 0.2 18 0.075 - - - - - 0 19 0 - - R - - 0 20 0 R - - - - 0 21 1.375 - R R - - 2.2 22 0.825 - - - - - ? 23 ? - R - - - ? 24 ? R R R - - ? 25 ? R - - - - ? 26 ? R - R - - ? 27 ? R - R - - ? 28 ? R R - R - ? 29 ? - - - - - ? 30 ? - R - R - ? 31 ? - - R - - ? 00 Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Mark Hardy" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Animated radar Date: Mon, 21 Jan 2002 18:41:17 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id QAA09578 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Slight correction Craig. The animated radars only went live on Weatherzone last Thursday. The sequence should load up quickly as the radar files are compressed with no background map. That is, you only download the background map once and the images are overlayed as it plays. This will load up your CPU a little but is very kind on your internet connection. So you can access a 50 image radar loop in reasonable download time on a dialup connection. Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.theweather.com.au -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] On Behalf Of TWC Sent: Sunday, 20 January 2002 3:37 PM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar Hi Jason, Bussy, We've had the animated radars up for a couple of weeks now, very good for following thunderstorms and cold fronts, etc Craig Arthur The Weather Company ----- Original Message ----- From: The Weather Man To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 3:21 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Animated radar Hi all, Bussy... I'm not sure how long they have had the animated radar there, but its defiantly a great investment on the weather zones web page... Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: nuisance rain... and more to come? Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 09:22:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Comments made yesterday that the rain was only going to be of nuisance >value.........were followed by some really useful falls across the state >with most areas receiving between 10 & 20mm & a few good falls between 45 & >60mm to 9am Tuesday. ... ... >Jane Jane, pleased to report that we had 39.5mm of nuisance rain in the last two days, and an estimated 48 hours of continuous fog. Also, curiously, in the ~48 hours from Sunday evening to Tuesday evening our temperature in Ferny Creek varied by just 1C. It is also great to feel some humid air after the dry (south) westerlies which have dominated summer so far. BTW I'm sure I'm not the only one to pick up on it but the models are all developing a significant surface trough over South Australia in the coming days. At the same time, convergent moist NE flow is progged to develop on the eastern side of the trough, coupled with a good supply of mid level moisture (evident presently over South Australia) which advects east in the mid/upper level westerlies. This all coincides with a steady warming of the atmosphere, with thickness values in the mid 560s through Victoria by Friday. This looks like a classic thundery situation for eastern (and possible central) parts of Victoria, and not surprisingly, every precipitation prog I have seen is developing convective rainfall over eastern Victoria (Thursday) and extending throughout central and eastern parts of the state on Friday and Saturday. This is reflected (somewhat in the official forecast) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which suggests showers and thunderstorms (part. for the eastern ranges) over the next few days. This is all well worth watching... Cheers, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: nuisance rain... and more to come? Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 12:54:32 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi David & all, There also appears to be an interesting area in the mid - upper levels to the north of Adelaide which has been 'anchored' for the past few hours while the flow moves through the area . Things may be rather interesting for SA & Victoria over the coming days. How well do the models handle westwards moving troughs & other 'wildcards'? Jane --------------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au --------------------------------------- BTW I'm sure I'm not the only one to pick up on it but the models are all developing a significant surface trough over South Australia in the coming days. At the same time, convergent moist NE flow is progged to develop on the eastern side of the trough, coupled with a good supply of mid level moisture (evident presently over South Australia) which advects east in the mid/upper level westerlies. This all coincides with a steady warming of the atmosphere, with thickness values in the mid 560s through Victoria by Friday. This looks like a classic thundery situation for eastern (and possible central) parts of Victoria, and not surprisingly, every precipitation prog I have seen is developing convective rainfall over eastern Victoria (Thursday) and extending throughout central and eastern parts of the state on Friday and Saturday. This is reflected (somewhat in the official forecast) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which suggests showers and thunderstorms (part. for the eastern ranges) over the next few days. This is all well worth watching... Cheers, David Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 12:55:11 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Jan 2002 01:57:08.0030 (UTC) FILETIME=[438345E0:01C1A3B1] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Just looking through the AWS data for the E ranges of Vic from yesterday. Falls Creek seems to have gotten a few storms with 33mm in total yesterday. Mt Hotham, Mt Hotham AP, Mt Buller and Hunters Hill also recorded rainfall which was likely to be associated with showers and storms. Perhaps I should've headed up to Falls Creek to spot rather than chase. Being up that high gives a better chance of hail too given that the FZL is about 5000ft lower up there than down on the plains. Anyone have any contacts at Falls Creek who may know whether it hailed or not. Wind gusts of 33knts and 28knts were also recorded at Falls Creek and Mt Buller respectively. Regards, Macca ----- Original Message ----- From: Andrew To: Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 10:47 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > Evening all, > > Well, after a very very quick check of the obs and sat pic this morning (i > didn't look at much else given that i got out of bed at 10:30am) and headed > up the Hume Hwy. A weak surface feature was evident running N/S at about > 146E and the upper trough was clearly visible on the sat pic and some drier > air aloft could be seen cutting into the moist air from Echuca - > Narrandera - Wagga - Albury so I headed for Albury hoping it was all going > to move slowly enough for me to see something. Yes, I know...I'm a a sucker > for punishment......... > > Anyway - I saw some nice Cb's in the very mosit air (the LCL was about 500m) > from about Benalla onwards. I made it as far as Holbrook and watched the > back end of some storms as they drifted into unkind chasing areas. It was > clear that the area to the W of the Hume Hwy wasn't going to produce much > else with W'lies pushing through and the TCu going up in the near vicinity > of the hwy was starting to move more E'ly as the axis of the upper trough > passed over the Holbrook region at about 4:30-5pm. Things just weren't > really happening and I knew I needed to be quite a bit further E (or > should've gotten out of bed earlier). I left the area at shortly after 5pm > and the result for the day was a few photos and about 2 mins of video - oh > and 775km. > > Regards, > > Andrew McDonald > > (captures might get done tomorrow) > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Michael Thompson > To: > Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 6:06 PM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > > > > I have not seen the soundings but the storms near Wollongong were very > high > > based and looked moisture starved to me, this is not the conditions at > > surface where it is very muggy, but it appears that there is a stable > drier > > layer above. It is a very weak seabreeze today, hardly 5 knots. > > > > The storms that formed convected right over the coast and became active > > about 5-10kms offshore. > > > > The SW is looking very dry, but there is activity on tracker and radar, I > am > > hopeing that a stronger SE wind shift may bring storms, like those near > > Narooma at present. > > > > Michael > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Harald Richter" > > To: "Aussie Weather" > > Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 4:39 PM > > Subject: aus-wx: E VIC / SE NSW storms > > > > > > > > > > The list is fairly quiet ... > > > > > > but the lightning tracker isn't - a very decent lightning show can be > > found > > > in the area enclosed by Wagga-Bairnsdale-Canberra-Wagga. > > > There's also a pocket of minor activity in the Wollongong-Sydney area, > > > and some storms in NE NSW. > > > > > > This is one of VIC's better events that I have seen so far. > > > > > > Harald > > > > > > -- > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 > 4501 > > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 > 4660 > > > PO Box 1289K email: > h.richter at bom.gov.au > > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.46] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Tropics ready to dance? Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 14:57:56 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 23 Jan 2002 03:57:56.0296 (UTC) FILETIME=[23D0E480:01C1A3C2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

 

G'day troppos

Just glancing at the latest satellite photo, seems the most cloud development seen so far this season, right from over the Indonesian Archipeligo to over the Coral Sea.  Maybe now the Monsoon is not far off, especially for you Darwin people!  I shall now put the crystal ball away...

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1124.shtml



Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: Click Here
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: simon at fearby.com To: Subject: aus-wx: Wild storms forming around Tamworth NSW 3:30PM 23/01/2002 Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 20:56:22 -0800 X-Originating-Ip: [153.107.47.12] X-Mailer: NOCC v0.9.5 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com If anyone is around the Tamworth, Armidale, Glen Innes areas you may be observing wild storms forming along the ranges. There is an unusual flow of storms from Tamworth to Tenterfield appearing from the coast over the ranges on a NNW direction. SW of Tamworth there is a storm developing and heading this way. The winds here are amazing, 40kmh gusts and the whole sky to the east is full of unstable blue clouds. There is clear shy to the west with mid level clouds rushing in to meet the storms from the ranges. The storm activity around Moree and Glen Innes will be excellent tonight. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 17:05:03 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , Ken Ring , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNGs > Rain Windows > Re: Methodology Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Harald and All. >Hi Carl, > >Can you briefly state the essence of your new "window" verification >methodology. I am confused by the vagueness of the description >below. > >Cheers, Harald It was kept simple to avoid subjecting everyone on the list to yet another lengthy technical explanation, however I probably over did the simplicity a bit and in any case the full technical details will be the subject of a webpage soon along with the two earlier methods for anyone who wants to delve into them. In the meantime I will try to explain the rain window verification scheme a little better: >> >> I used a formula to distribute the rainfall over the 2 days covered in each >> obs, being 5/8 for the period from 9am to midnight on the previous day, and >> 3/8 for the period from midnight to 9 am on the Sydney AP obs day, in >> effect making both rain days - I could think of no other way to allow for >> the issue of what day the rain actually fell on. We are looking at rain >> windows, so although it makes things a little fuzzy it does not matter that >> much in this context. I think the above is clear enough. >> >> For the actual analysis, we are looking for 3 different factors and >> afterwards combining the results to give a total: It seems to me that there are at least three ways to check for meaningful results from LR rainfall forecasts as follows: >> >> Rain +-1day: >> The number of rain hits allowing +-1 day for any rain hit. This gives us a measure of the timing of rain windows. As we do not have to allow for tallying up dry periods as well, this gives us the full +-1 day leeway Ken asks for, i.e. an Obs "R" will be a Fcst hit if there is a Fcst "R" on the same day or either adjoining day. Whilst it obviously favors an overall increase in the number of "R" hits, it tends to be biased more in favor the RNGs due to their tendancy to produce scattered "R" forecasts as each "R" covers up to 3 days in practice, whereas Kens are in rain window blocks giving only one extra possible hit each end of a block. >> >> Num Wind: >> Compares the number of Rain Windows so far. This simply compares the number of rain periods forecast to the number of rain periods observed so far. As rain is not random and tends to happen in what we are calling 'rain windows' associated with weather systems, often over a period spanning several days, a forecast that can come close to the observed number of rain windows over a given period has some merit even if the timing is a bit off. It increments in a forecast or observation table by detecting each day where there is a change to an "R", thus identifying the number of rain periods. The result is obtained by a direct comparison of the number of forecast rain windows to the number of observed rain windows. This tends to favour Kens forecast above the RNGs as the scattering of "R"'s tends to generate a larger number of rain windows wheras rainfall is not random and tends to come in a limited number of rain windows over a given time as per Kens forecast. >> >> Rain Days: >> Compares the total number of Rain Days in the whole period so far. This is a simple comparison of the number of forecast "R" days to the number of observed "R" days so far. If a forecast method can get close to the observed number of "R" days over a period it has some merit even if the timing is a bit off. Bias can only come from the fractions factored in to the RNG's if carefully chosen with regard to the number of rain days one might expect in the period, or from the fact that Ken uses rainfall observations from a specific Soli-Lunar cycle defined time period many years ago as part of the method he uses to formulate his forecasts. >> >> Total: >> Each of the above factors represents one third of the total. Clear enough, and will do until someone comes up with a better method. >> >> Chance: >> A pecentage worked out from the Obs and the period so far. This is something I am not entirely happy with - it attempts to look at the relationship between the observations and the number of days in regard to each of the methods, and may even have the wrong name. I will not yet get into the details as some may change as I rework it. I think this methodology gives a far better overall assessment of a LR rain forecast whether by Ken or some RNGs. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Bussy" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: nuisance rain... and more to come? Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 21:26:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I know. A one liner But why doesn't this stuff cross the ranges in summer? Seriously. Why am I dry and the southern parts get damp? ----- Original Message ----- From: "David Jones" To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 9:22 AM Subject: aus-wx: nuisance rain... and more to come? > >Comments made yesterday that the rain was only going to be of nuisance > >value.........were followed by some really useful falls across the state > >with most areas receiving between 10 & 20mm & a few good falls between 45 & > >60mm to 9am Tuesday. > ... > ... > >Jane > > Jane, pleased to report that we had 39.5mm of nuisance rain in the last two > days, and an estimated > 48 hours of continuous fog. Also, curiously, in the ~48 hours from Sunday > evening to Tuesday evening our > temperature in Ferny Creek varied by just 1C. It is also great to feel some > humid air after the > dry (south) westerlies which have dominated summer so far. > > BTW I'm sure I'm not the only one to pick up on it but the models are all > developing a significant surface trough > over South Australia in the coming days. At the same time, convergent moist > NE flow is progged to develop on the eastern side of the trough, coupled > with a good supply of mid level moisture (evident presently over South > Australia) which advects east in the mid/upper level westerlies. This all > coincides with a steady warming of the atmosphere, with thickness values in > the mid 560s through Victoria by Friday. This looks like a classic thundery > situation for eastern (and possible central) parts of Victoria, and not > surprisingly, every precipitation prog I have seen is developing convective > rainfall over eastern Victoria (Thursday) and extending throughout central > and eastern parts of the state on Friday and Saturday. This is reflected > (somewhat in the official forecast) > http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which suggests > showers and thunderstorms (part. for the eastern ranges) over the next few > days. This is all well worth watching... > > Cheers, > > David > > Dr David Jones > > Climate Analysis Section > National Climate Centre > Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 > GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 > Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Models & forecasts Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 21:51:59 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Heard on Melbourne radio today....... Announcer: ....and what do you think the weekend will be like? Forecaster: well, at the moment Saturday should see a maximum of 35. A trough is expected to move into the west of Victoria late Saturday. Announcer: ........& Sunday?? Forecaster: well, at the moment, the computer models are not lining up and we think Sunday will probably be 35 as well but we'll wait & see what the computers do. The discussion on the radio this afternoon reinforces the question - How well do the models handle westwards moving troughs & other 'wildcards'? & what happens if the models just simply do not agree on any one outcome?? (Please note that this is not criticism, but is a question that I have often pondered when models do what the models have done over the past couple of weeks........) Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 02:00:22 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's > Update & chances Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. Here are the results to date using all 3 analysis methods developed so far. Haralds Method >= 1 mm Rain NoRain Days Obs 7 14 21 33% 67% Rain NoRain Total Dir Dir Dir Ken 2/7 11/14 13/21 29% 79% 62% RNG#1 3/7 11/14 14/21 43% 79% 67% RNG#2 2/7 11/14 13/21 29% 79% 62% RNG#3 0/7 12/14 12/21 0% 86% 57% Mindless 0/7 14/14 14/21 0% 100% 67% Chance 33% 67% Av 50% Leeway Method >= 1 mm Rain NoRain Days Obs 7 14 21 33% 67% Rain NoRain Total +-Lwy +-Lwy +-Lwy Ken 4/7 13/14 17/21 57% 93% 81% RNG#1 4/7 12/14 16/21 57% 86% 76% RNG#2 3/7 12/14 15/21 43% 86% 71% RNG#3 2/7 14/14 16/21 29% 100% 76% Mindless 0/7 14/14 14/21 0% 100% 67% Chance 48% 93% Av 70% Rain Windows Method >= 1 mm Rain RW Days Obs 7 3 21 33% 14% Rain Rain Rain Total +-1day Wind Days Anal Ken 5/7 3/3 5/7 71% 100% 71% 81% RNG#1 7/7 6/3 6/7 100% 50% 86% 79% RNG#2 4/7 5/3 5/7 57% 60% 71% 63% RNG#3 2/7 2/3 2/7 29% 67% 29% 41% Mindless 0/7 0/3 0/7 0% 0% 0% 0% Chance 58% 14% 33% Av 35% Haralds Table is pasted below. To elaborate on the Chances row that I did not discuss this morning: The percentages in the Chance row are derived from the Obs and the number of days so far, with various adaptations in each case. For Haralds method, the chance is simply the odds of getting a hit of the particular type on any day in view of the observations: Rain Dir Chance =[Total "R"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 100 NoRain Dir Chance = [Total "-"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 100 Total Dir Av Chance = ([Rain Dir chance] + [NoRain Dir Chance]) / 2 For the Leeway Method, the same formulae are applied as per Haralds, however the odds are adjusted upwards for the level of chance of extra hits in the method used (see Note 1). Rain +-Lwy Chance = [Total "R"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 143.75 NoRain +-Lwy Chance = [Total "-"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 143.75 Total +-Lwy Av Chance = ([Rain chance] + [NoRain Chance]) / 2 For the Rain Windows method, similar formulae are used for the Rain +-1day hits and the number of Rain Days, and I derived a perhaps inadequate one for the Rain Windows (see Note 1 and Note 2). Rain +-1day Chance = [Total "R"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 175 Rain Wind Chance = (2 * [Rain Wind]) / [Total elapsed days] * 50 Rain Days Chance = [Total "R"s] / [Total elapsed days] * 100 Total Av Chance = ([Rain +-1day Chance] + [Rain Wind Chance] + [Rain Days Chance])/3 Note 1: In practice rain tends to come in periods of days so reducing the chance of extra leeway hits as they can only occur at each end of a rain window, so the adjustment factors used for the Leeway Method and the Rain +-1day Chance in the Rain Windows method are too high - I will be reviewing this to come up with better self-adjusting factors. Note 2: Developing the Rain Wind Chance has given me more head scratching than any of the others - I am looking to see if I can find a better method. Regards, Carl. Harald's Table (fuzzy version) Syd. AP Day Fuzzy Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 9am mm Jan Obs Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 0 02 0 0 03 0 - - - - - 0 04 0 - - - - - 0 05 0 - - - R - 0 06 8.75 R - R - - 14 07 9.75 R R - - - 7.2 08 2.7 - - - - - 0 09 0 - R R R - 0 10 0 - - - - - 0 11 0 - R - - - 0 12 0 - - - - - 0 13 0 R - R - - 0 14 0 R - - - - 0 15 11.875 - - - - - 19 16 14.25 - R - - - 11.4 17 4.4 - - - - - 0.2 18 0.075 - - - - - 0 19 0 - - R - - 0 20 0 R - - - - 0 21 1.375 - R R - - 2.2 22 0.825 - - - - - 0 23 0 - R - - - ? 24 ? R R R - - ? 25 ? R - - - - ? 26 ? R - R - - ? 27 ? R - R - - ? 28 ? R R - R - ? 29 ? - - - - - ? 30 ? - R - R - ? 31 ? - - R - - ? 00 ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Models & forecasts (fwd) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 13:12:37 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane, > The discussion on the radio this afternoon reinforces the question - How > well do the models handle westwards moving troughs & other 'wildcards'? > & what happens if the models just simply do not agree on any one > outcome?? In my experience models have difficulties with any system that is in some way cut off from the westerly flow. In the cut-off cases, the forcing that makes a system go left or right is more subtle (from a dynamical point of view). Errors to a subtle forcing have a greater relative impact compared to the same-sized errors impacting on strong forcing. Individual forecasters have different preferences when it comes to model reliability, often based on past performance in similar situations. Some have model preferences depending on what type of "pattern" prevails. Some look at ensemble runs and use the spread about the ensemble mean as a measure of model forecast reliability. Others (myself included) look at d(model)/dt, i.e. is the +12 h forecast from 12Z saying the same as the +24 h forecast from 00Z, or is there a clear tendency in the model. Lastly, you could take a "poor man's ensemble" of all the different models and form a mental mean. Was this rant useful? Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Wx - STORMS PROBABLE! Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 13:18:28 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 24 Jan 2002 02:20:26.0673 (UTC) FILETIME=[AF950210:01C1A47D] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 Afternoon all,

BoM are going for storms on the central and eastern ranges tomorrow and Saturday. This is an interesting forecast and I wouldn't be surprised to see this change a tad to mention that storms are possible in the E and N suburbs of Melbourne on both days. AVN, GASP, LAPS and TLAPS all have instablility extending down well into the metro area. The inland trough looks to be slightly ill-defined over the next few days (inc today) which means the ranges will probably be required to give additional lift to trigger the storms - at least until the front/trough moves in from the W on Saturday.

Given the current progged steering flow on Friday, storms are going to be quite slow moving with 0-6km shear of just 10-15knts. Steering flow is from the NW-W and the 300mb jet of just 25-30knts (from the SW so anvils should stream to the NE) so storms would be expected to move SE-E and given that, the BoM may not be expecting storms to move off the ranges into the suburbs. Unfortunately, this lack of shear is associated with an upper trough sitting over the E half of the state and lapse rates will be quite good with sfc temps forecast to reach the low 30's, 850mb temps of around +17C, 500mb temps of -12 to -13C and 300mb temps of about -40C (giving a 0-6km lapse rate of about 6.7C/km). There is some mositure across southern and eastern Victoria at the moment and given the current moist easterly airstream across the E coast, the DP's should remain fairly constant in the low-mid teens until the front on Sunday.

Saturday's shear is interesting depending on the area targeted. Instability is forecast to be best in E Vic over the ranges but it extends right across central Victoria with another area of slightly greater instablity in W Vic. Over the E ranges 0-6km shear is about the same as Friday with 10-15knts. 300mb flow is up a bit to 40-50knts over the E half of the state as the upper level trough is squeezed out further to the east. Because of this the upper levels warm slightly but this should be offset somewhat by the warming in the lower layers. Low level lapse rates will be slightly higher but upper level lapse rates will be weaker. Again moisture should not be a problem.

The area of insatbility over W Vic is coupled with some nice convergence along the trough moving in from the W. Mositure again should not be a problem with N to NE'ly flow feeding in from the very moist air across the E parts of NSW. Shear is quite a bit nicer in W Vic than in E Vic with 0-6km shear of 25-30knts. With N-NE'ly winds from the sfc to 850 of about 10knts, 700mb winds of 15knts from the NNW, 500mb winds of 30knts from the WNW and the 300mb winds of 40-45knts, storms should be a bit more organised than Friday. If storms can penetrate a tad higher there is a juicier 60-70knt jet at 200mb. The trough should prove an adequate trigger for lift in this region meaning that ranges should not be required over the W parts. Low level temperatures are forecast to warm up a bit with sfc temps forecast in the mid-high 30's and 850 temps are forecast to warm to 18-20C across the western areas. This is quite warm and could mean some nice capping for the area. A nice 500mb trough is pushing into the western areas on Saturday afternoon dropping 500mb temps over the region by 1-2C from Friday to -12 to -13C. 300mb temps warm slightly from Friday as the upper trough moves off to the east but this shouldn't be too much of a telling factor.

If I was to choose my target areas based on this morning's model runs I'd be looking at the eastern ranges in the area bound by Albury - Benalla - Bright/Mt Beaty for tomorrow (noting that the ski resorts have great views and increased chances of hail if you are lucky to score a direct hit from a decent storm). For Saturday I'd be looking at playing the trough. The models are a bit variable as to where the trough will lie at prime time (mid-late arvo) but I think the sfc convergence, the shear and the instability combination will provide for more organised and photogenic storms than the ranges storms. Based almost solely on AVN at the moment I'd be looking at the area bound by Bendigo - Horsham - Ararat - Camperdown - Geelong. This is a large area and I'd narrow it down on the day depending on cloud, temperatures, mositure and most importantly, the positioning of the trough.

Sunday is a different story all together....the models are all varying about when the trough will move across Victoria - soem even stalling it across Victoria Saturday, Sunday and then pushing it out on Monday (note that the BoM were heard on the radio stating that it could be stormy for the next 4 days being Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon - implying they feel the trough could hang around until Monday). I won't be making my mind up about this until closer to the time so I'll leave it at that for now. I'll add to this tomorrow, and again Saturday morning (if I have time). As luck would have it my chasing time is *very* restricted this weekend (inc tomorrow).

Incidentally, the BoM have gone for a *chance* of severe storms today in an area bound by Echuca - Yea - Warburton - East Sale - Orbost - the border. Mositure levels are expected to be high enough today to produce very heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. Temperatures across the NE are pushing into the low 30's already with the trough sitting just E of Managlore - Kyabram. Anywhere E of this trough is a chance today. Radar shows some showers in SE NSW at the moment and these should extend down into the ranges over the next few hours with storms developing after about 3pm. Once this cloud clears across S Vic later on today we should have a nice view of any action within about 150km-200km to the E and NE. (Some good vantage points are the E facing carpark at Mt Dandenong, Doncaster Shoppingtown Rooftop Carpark, Kangaroo Ground Fire Tower).

Regards,

Macca-wx
(Andrew McDonald)

 

 
From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Storms - Orange area To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 13:34:58 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 24/01/2002 01:34:56 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. A feeder for the Manildra/Molong area has caused area to be blacked out, due to lightning in area. Calls also from Cargo and Binnaway areas. Problems in Parkes also coming in. Dave Bathurst ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: NSW Storm Advice To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 14:04:47 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 24/01/2002 02:04:47 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com NSW Severe Thunderstorm Advice BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE Issued at 1255 on Thursday the 24th of January 2002 The Bureau of Meteorology in Sydney has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Advice for people in the following weather forecast districts: North West Slopes and Plains, west of a line from Moree to Tamworth Central West Slopes and Plains, Central Tablelands, west of a line from Rylstone to Oberon to Crookwell Upper Western, east of a line from Wanaaring to Cobar Some calls coming in from Gulargumbone and Coonamble areas now. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: Answer for Jane! Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 17:18:23 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >The discussion on the radio this afternoon reinforces the question - How >well do the models handle westwards moving troughs & other 'wildcards'? >& what happens if the models just simply do not agree on any one >outcome?? > >Jane Just a quickie addition to Harald's comments. On 1) my suspicion is that the "wildcard" and westward moving systems tend to be smaller in scale (for v-good dynamical reasons), and this probably explains why the models tend to perform rather poorly with them. Being smaller, they are less well resolved by observations, less well resolved in the models, and also tend to have short life cycles. All three contribute to less good forecasts... RE what do forecasters do... one thing I have certainly noticed is a tendency to continue the previous day's forecast line. Of course, someone has to set the initial policy, but beyond that, you tend to find uncertain situations often have in unchanging forecasts... Cheers, DJ Dr David Jones Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9755 1923 email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "The Weather Man" To: Subject: aus-wx: Quick note on the Tropical Low in coral sea......... Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 17:51:08 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Just a quick look at the low that the BOM is tracking, and its very IMPRESSIVE as the size of it is realitivly large. If you are all wondering where the low is and can't see it on any normal satellite picture take a look here. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxirgms5en.GIF Regards Jason º¿º +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Looking for Michael Maxwell Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 20:31:47 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, After my computer rebuild, I lost my lastest address book & with it a few updated addresses. Can anyone help me with Michael Maxwell's new email address? Michael?? Many thanks, Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Australian Weather News changes server Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 23:52:33 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Greetings all Following Jimmy and Michael's lead, I have changed the server hosting Australian Weather News (to Featureprice -- thanks Jimmy for your help.) The domain name was redelegated late last night and is just now starting to show up on some Aus servers. It will take me a few days to get all of the scripts that run the automated uploads switched over to the new addresses, and with me in Blackheath and the main computer in Sydney, I don't expect everything to be fully operational until the middle of next week. The new server has a heap more functionality than Yahoo, and I'm already salivating at the prospect of what can be done with SSI and PHP scripts and the like. If you have bookmarks or a website with links to AWN, please check that they don't carry the old ausweather.simplenet.com URL. This has been operational, though superseded for over a year, but will cease to operate as soon as your ISP's DNS tables are updated, probably tonight. Cheers Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: Storms - NSW To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 00:25:15 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 25/01/2002 12:25:16 AM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com HI all. Well this afternoon/night has been interesting. The thing I thought was different with todays storms how they hung around for hours in the one area and also moved in a NW fashion. Hopefully one more experienced could explain why these storms were like this. The storm especially around Orange seemed to stay on radar for hrs. Slowly it moved west, the NW. Around 2pm was when I noticed some lightning appearing on tracker, Molong/Orange areas were affected when 2778 customers had blackout from lightning strike to 11kv line. A separate storm was brewing around Coonabarabran also, outages reported on 22kv line from 2.40pm to 4.30pm. Coonamble also had approx 100 people off due to storms for 2 hrs. Other towns listed with problems were Gilgandra, Tooraweenah, Parkes( 19.2 mm rain). Forbes, Condobolin, Lake Cargelligo , Trangie(39.8mm Rain , 36mm of this recvd in 1 hr between 6pm-7pm) , Bogan Gate, Trundle areas. There were many more with strikes to poles on their own properties where the drop out fuses blew. Many Telstra sites down to battery power. Bathurst missed some rain again, Im sure by Sunday/Monday we just may see some more storms around. Not much more to add, apart that I need to head home, been here now since 9am. Thankfully I have friday off to sleep away. Dave Bathurst. ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 01:27:04 +0000 (GMT) From: Andrew Boskell Subject: aus-wx: Continuing Uncertainty To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com G'day All, This overview from the Tassie BOM site seems to fit well with the current topic of uncertain model(s) predictions for this current trough and low. Regards, Andrew. OVERVIEW OF THE WEATHER Issued at 11:30am on Friday the 25th of January 2002 A high pressure system to the southeast will move slowly away today, while a low pressure trough will develop and extend from the mainland to our west tomorrow. This trough should slowly move over the state on Sunday as a low develops to the west. Some uncertainty exists about where the low will move on Monday, but at this stage it seems likely it will pass over or just south of the state during the day and move away to the southeast on Tuesday. ===== Andrew Boskell "Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Everything you'll ever need on one web page from News and Sport to Email and Music Charts http://uk.my.yahoo.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 15:41:26 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon all, After a morning of delightful AcCas, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne & to the northeast has gone off. Chris Daley has reported lightning in the eastern suburbs, Robert Goler has videoed a funnel at ~1425AEDST a few kms south of Chris, Nick Sykes is out there amongst it somewhere too..........and this is looking like a great runup to an amazing weekend. Worth watching - some of these have 'potentially nasty' written across them. I've spent a bit of time on the roof taking photos - anyone getting any work done atm in Melbourne? Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.209.100] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 15:56:45 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Jan 2002 04:56:45.0846 (UTC) FILETIME=[B06AFB60:01C1A55C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey Jane, Work, there is no work when you have storms like these popping up. Have you recieved the SE wind yet? Its not much cooler which is fantastic. Watch the cell out the NW around Kyenton for further devlopment also storms developing around the Airpirt. Lightning was observed near Rowville aswell. 1 powerpole down. Karl >From: "Jane ONeill" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "Aus Wx" >Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms >Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 15:41:26 +1100 > >Afternoon all, > >After a morning of delightful AcCas, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne & to >the northeast has gone off. Chris Daley has reported lightning in the >eastern suburbs, Robert Goler has videoed a funnel at ~1425AEDST a few kms >south of Chris, Nick Sykes is out there amongst it somewhere >too..........and this is looking like a great runup to an amazing weekend. > >Worth watching - some of these have 'potentially nasty' written across >them. >I've spent a bit of time on the roof taking photos - anyone getting any >work >done atm in Melbourne? > >Jane >-------------------------------- >Jane ONeill - Melbourne >cadence at stormchasers.au.com > >Melbourne Storm Chasers >http://www.stormchasers.au.com > >ASWA - Victoria >http://www.severeweather.asn.au >-------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au--------------------------- _________________________________________________________________ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: duckman.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 16:14:27 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Aus Wx Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Fri, 25 Jan 2002, Jane ONeill wrote: > After a morning of delightful AcCas, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne & to > the northeast has gone off. Chris Daley has reported lightning in the > eastern suburbs, Robert Goler has videoed a funnel at ~1525AEDST And here are the captures: http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_25/today.html Kinda puny, but hey, it's a funnel! Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 16:24:26 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken vs the RNG's - update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I noticed that as the number of rain periods increased, so did the discrency between the number of Rain days used for Obs and the number of days as in the Sydney AP observations. I corrected this anomoly by using 4 kinds of hits, being 0, 3/8, 5/8, 1. This reflects the uncertainty of when the rain actually fell, so distributing hits accordingly, and when the results tally, the number of Obs Rain days = Sydney AP rain days. This necessitated some modifications in the formulae used, and I have also modified the chance results formulae, which will soon all be layed out on a web page. It also means the results can have parts of days included in their tallies, which only at the actual result display have been rounded to the nearest 1/10 in the spreadsheet. Here is the current progress using 3 analysis methods: Direct Hits >= 1 mm Rain NoRain Days Rain 6 16 22 27% 73% Rain NoRain Total Dir Dir Dir Ken 2 12 14 33% 75% 64% RNG#1 3.6 12.6 16.3 60% 79% 74% RNG#2 1.6 11.6 13.3 27% 73% 60% RNG#3 0 14 14 0% 88% 64% Mindless 0 16 16 0% 100% 73% Chance 27% 73% Av 50% Leeway Hits >= 1 mm Rain NoRain Days Rain 6 16 22 27% 73% Rain NoRain Total +-Lwy +-Lwy +-Lwy Ken 3.3 12 15.3 54% 75% 69% RNG#1 4 12.6 16.6 67% 79% 76% RNG#2 2 12.3 14.3 33% 77% 65% RNG#3 1 14 15 17% 88% 68% Mindless 0 16 16 0% 100% 73% Chance 40% 86% Av 63% Rain Windows Hits >= 1 mm Rain RW Days Rain 6 4 22 27% 80% Rain Rain Rain Total +-1day Wind Days Anal Ken 3.3 4 6 54% 100% 100% 85% RNG#1 4 6 7 67% 67% 86% 73% RNG#2 2 6 6 33% 67% 100% 67% RNG#3 1 2 2 17% 50% 33% 33% Mindless 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% Chance 40% 80% 27% Av 49% Harald's Table (modified) >= 1 mm Rain Threshold SydAP Day Obs Obs Rain Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 mm at 9am Jan Rain NoRain Wind Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindless 0 03 0 1 - - - - - 0 04 0 1 - - - - - 0 05 0 1 - - - R - 0 06 0.625 0.375 R - R - - 14 07 1 0 1 R R - - - 7.2 08 0.375 0.625 - - - - - 0 09 0 1 - R R R - 0 10 0 1 - - - - - 0 11 0 1 - R - - - 0 12 0 1 - - - - - 0 13 0 1 R - R - - 0 14 0 1 R - - - - 0 15 0.625 0.375 - - - - - 19 16 1 0 2 - R - - - 11.4 17 0.375 0.625 - - - - - 0.2 18 0 1 - - - - - 0 19 0 1 - - R - - 0 20 0 1 R - - - - 0 21 0.625 0.375 - R R - - 2.2 22 0.375 0.625 3 - - - - - 0 23 0.625 0.375 - R - - - 6.2 24 0.375 0.625 4 R R R - - ? 25 0 0 R - - - - ? 26 0 0 R - R - - ? 27 0 0 R - R - - ? 28 0 0 R R - R - ? 29 0 0 - - - - - ? 30 0 0 - R - R - ? 31 0 0 - - R - - ? 00 mm Days Rain NoRain RW 60.2 22 6 16 4 Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 18:21:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane, I was at Whittlesea toboggan Park, and watched them develop. I have some pics, and the outflow can be seen from Broadford at the time of writing. Peter ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aus Wx" Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 3:41 PM Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Afternoon all, > > After a morning of delightful AcCas, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne & to > the northeast has gone off. Chris Daley has reported lightning in the > eastern suburbs, Robert Goler has videoed a funnel at ~1425AEDST a few kms > south of Chris, Nick Sykes is out there amongst it somewhere > too..........and this is looking like a great runup to an amazing weekend. > > Worth watching - some of these have 'potentially nasty' written across them. > I've spent a bit of time on the roof taking photos - anyone getting any work > done atm in Melbourne? > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 18:58:25 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Great capture Robert, I got a couple of CG's on tape which I will capture later tonight, but nothing as close as yours. I missed out on the funnel though, must have been hidden behind the factory next to where I work. We have a rather large cell that popped up NE of Tullamarine heading towards us right now, probably get here in a half hour or so, hopefully there will be some more sparks in it. Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: Robert Goler To: Aus Wx Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 4:14 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > On Fri, 25 Jan 2002, Jane ONeill wrote: > > > After a morning of delightful AcCas, the eastern suburbs of Melbourne & to > > the northeast has gone off. Chris Daley has reported lightning in the > > eastern suburbs, Robert Goler has videoed a funnel at ~1525AEDST > > And here are the captures: > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_25/today.html > > Kinda puny, but hey, it's a funnel! > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 25 Jan 02 19:29:08 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Robert! 25 Jan 02 16:14, you wrote to Aus Wx: RG> And here are the captures: RG> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_25/today.html RG> RG> Kinda puny, but hey, it's a funnel! Good you got it on film. Nice lightning shots, BTW. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 25 Jan 02 19:25:59 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Chris! 25 Jan 02 18:58, you wrote to All: CD> I missed out on the funnel though, must have been hidden behind the CD> factory next to where I work. Interesting... Despite having been close to a couple of tornados in my life, I've never seen one, and would love to. CD> CD> We have a rather large cell that popped up NE of Tullamarine heading CD> towards us right now, probably get here in a half hour or so, CD> hopefully there will be some more sparks in it. Been some storm activity in the Niddrie area since around 1815 with a lot of thunder and heavy rain. Eased off a bit now, looks like a cell to the NW, which probably won't pass over here. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 25 Jan 02 19:31:56 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Karl! 25 Jan 02 15:56, you wrote to All: KL> Work, there is no work when you have storms like these popping up. :-) They started later up here, around 1800. Just looked at the BOM radar and saw the cause for the heavy rain earlier. A pink region passed directly over at 18:40 local. :) KL> KL> Have you recieved the SE wind yet? Its not much cooler which is KL> fantastic. Watch the cell out the NW around Kyenton for further KL> devlopment also storms developing around the Airpirt. There's a cell around Kyneton now that might hit the eastern suburbs. There was a lot of CCs in the line of storms around 1800, but nothing particularly close here. Might pop into the #weather channel on IRC. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "TJ" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 07:26:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi, I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can only hope!). Thanks. Tanya Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\winmail.dat" From: dencot1 at aol.com Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 05:19:42 EST Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: AOL 7.0 for Windows AU sub 57 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all
Watched the radar all arvo just to see the good stuff go to the Nth. or Sth. of my home.
I am sure that after  waiting all summer , that aliens have buried a thunder storm diverter in my back yard .
Btw did anyone have any trouble getting all 4 frames of the 128k loop from Bom ?Every time it updated I on received 2 frames ,but if I then went to the 256 radar and then went back a page I go all 4 frames.
Any thoughts by anyone on the next 2 days weather ?

Regards
Dennis Cottle
Nth. Bayswater Vic.
From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 22:21:21 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, not a bad afternoon after I managed to finally escape at 5.45pm.......heavy rain & tiny hail in Kew, with lightning crackling away on the am radio, much of it overhead. Headed east & a particular cell took my fancy, so off out to Lilydale to get petrol & watch one cell receding east into unchaseable territory, while another came into Lilydale from the NW with cg's dropping out of it. Then I had to go all the way back to drop some film off & got a brilliant shot of a Cj with its top glowing in the sunset - one of those shots that you **just have to have**....hurled off the road into a carpark while talking to Anthony, dived out of the still idling car, left the door wide open with cameras strewn everywhere & flew down the road to get 'that shot' & gave myself a heart attack when I turned around and realised how I'd left the car (and there was someone walking past it at the time........), back out on the Freeway, lightning in 2 separate cells, up Stud Road, lightning to the north now leaving beads as it fades, home to thunder.....not a bad run about town on a Friday night Meanwhile, Nick Sykes has been exploring flash flooding & lightning for the past few hours & having a great time...reports from them to follow & a certain pizza delivery chappy doing 'storm chasing pizza deliveries.......' Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 23:15:54 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 25 Jan 2002 12:18:00.0178 (UTC) FILETIME=[54597520:01C1A59A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Very briefly I just had the most frustrating EVER evening delivering pizzas in NE suburbs of Melbourne. Missing the storms had me furious a few times and my poor little car bore the brunt of this frustration. The frustration was eased somewhat by the flash flooding which put a foot of water over Main Rd in Lower Plenty and also the flang we got which scared the shit out of everyone at work except me (i was the only one to see the flash....hehe). Some deliveries were a tad late tonight (sorry customers - there were storms to video). All in all a very very very frustrating evening on what I would say was the best storms we've had in Melbourne itself since March 2000. Macca-wx (Andrew McDonald) ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 10:21 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Evening all, > > not a bad afternoon after I managed to finally escape at > 5.45pm.......heavy rain & tiny hail in Kew, with lightning crackling > away on the am radio, much of it overhead. Headed east & a particular > cell took my fancy, so off out to Lilydale to get petrol & watch one > cell receding east into unchaseable territory, while another came into > Lilydale from the NW with cg's dropping out of it. Then I had to go all > the way back to drop some film off & got a brilliant shot of a Cj with > its top glowing in the sunset - one of those shots that you **just have > to have**....hurled off the road into a carpark while talking to > Anthony, dived out of the still idling car, left the door wide open with > cameras strewn everywhere & flew down the road to get 'that shot' & gave > myself a heart attack when I turned around and realised how I'd left the > car (and there was someone walking past it at the time........), back > out on the Freeway, lightning in 2 separate cells, up Stud Road, > lightning to the north now leaving beads as it fades, home to > thunder.....not a bad run about town on a Friday night > > Meanwhile, Nick Sykes has been exploring flash flooding & lightning for > the past few hours & having a great time...reports from them to follow & > a certain pizza delivery chappy doing 'storm chasing pizza > deliveries.......' > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 00:20:17 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A few pics of the day..... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "John Woodbridge" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 23:27:04 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2911.0) Importance: Normal X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: 000000005A7569AC5CB8D1119D3C0000E8300C9E446E3C00 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tanya, Not in the near future, but you are right about the eerie feeling. This is backed up by all sorts of amazing cloudscapes, with layers moving in different directions at different levels. But the BoM forecast for the next few days seems rather benign, but I can't help feeling something is brewing - maybe a major rain event. John. >snip > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] > Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 6:26 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > > hi, > > I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather > forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in > the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can > only hope!). Thanks. > > Tanya > Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\winmail1.dat" X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au (Unverified) Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 02:31:44 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Carl Smith Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >hi, > >I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather >forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in >the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can >only hope!). Thanks. > >Tanya Hi Tanya. I am also on the Gold Coast, and the weather certainly has a 'cyclonic' type feel and look. This is due largely to the presence of a very large perhaps monsoonal/subtropical hybrid type of circulation that has evolved out of Tropical Depression 07F now centered near New Caledonia and it's interaction with a High pressure ridge across the S of the continent. The moist onshore winds circulating around the low are being squeezed by the High giving the stronger at times gale force winds that have been experienced on the Gold Coast today, and are carrying in significant showers tonight. If this large low hangs around for a few days we can expect these conditions to continue - at various times over the last 24 hours I have heard that it is moving WSW (towards the Gold Coast), S, and recently near stationary, so I guess it is a little difficult for the forecasters to pin down at the moment. Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au (Unverified) Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 02:32:45 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken Ring vs the RNGs - update table Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. As we come into the final week of this exercise, if the rain continues in Sydney over the next few days we will see Ken's results rise relative to the RNG's whatever method we use. Here is the latest update set out in a 76 character wide table - you will need to use a monospaced font to view it properly. For a true comparison with the three more refined methods I have included Haralds method calling it the "Raw Data" method. All other methods use the rainfall data split as proportional hit values over both days (see the modified version of Haralds table further below) with a 1mm minimum rainfall threshold applied to the raw data. The final percentage in the Rain Windows method is obtained from the Rain value of the +-1 day leeway method and the two values in it's own section added and divided by three. I am still working on an adequate explanatary page to upload and will let you all know when it is done. Sydney LR Rain Forecast Analysis Table | Raw Data | Split Data with Rain Threshold >= 1 mm | | Obs | Rain NoRn Days | Rain NoRn RnWn | 8 15 23 | 7 16 4 Odds | 35% 65% 79% | 30% 70% 84% | | | Raw Method | Direct Hits | +-1 d Leeway | Rain Windows | Fcst | Rain NoRn Tot | Rain NoRn Tot | Rain NoRn Tot | RnWn RnDy Tot | | | | | | Ken | 3 11 14 | 3 12 15 | 4.3 12 16.3 | 4 7 | | 43% 69% 61% | 43% 75% 65% | 61% 75% 71% | 100% 100% 87% | RNG#1 | 3 11 14 | 4.3 13.3 17.5 | 4.6 13.3 17.9 | 6 7 | | 43% 69% 61% | 61% 83% 76% | 66% 83% 78% | 67% 100% 78% | RNG#2 | 1 10 11 | 2.3 12.3 14.5 | 2.6 12.9 15.5 | 6 6 | | 14% 63% 48% | 32% 77% 63% | 38% 80% 67% | 67% 86% 63% | RNG#3 | 0 13 13 | 0 14 14 | 1 14 15 | 2 2 | | 0% 81% 57% | 0% 88% 61% | 14% 88% 65% | 50% 29% 31% | Mindl | 0 15 15 | 0 16 16 | 0 16 16 | 0 0 | | 0% 94% 65% | 0% 100% 70% | 0% 100% 70% | 0% 0% 0% | | | | | | Odds | 35% 65% 79% | 30% 70% 50% | 43% 82% 63% | 84% 30% 52% | Harald's Table (modified) SydAP Dy Obs Obs Rain Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 9am Ja Rain NoRain Wndw Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindl 0 03 0 1 - - - - - 0 04 0 1 - - - - - 0 05 0 1 - - - R - 0 06 0.625 0.375 R - R - - 14 07 1 0 1 R R - - - 7.2 08 0.375 0.625 - - - - - 0 09 0 1 - R R R - 0 10 0 1 - - - - - 0 11 0 1 - R - - - 0 12 0 1 - - - - - 0 13 0 1 R - R - - 0 14 0 1 R - - - - 0 15 0.625 0.375 - - - - - 19 16 1 0 2 - R - - - 11.4 17 0.375 0.625 - - - - - 0.2 18 0 1 - - - - - 0 19 0 1 - - R - - 0 20 0 1 R - - - - 0 21 0.625 0.375 - R R - - 2.2 22 0.375 0.625 3 - - - - - 0 23 0.625 0.375 - R - - - 6.2 24 1 0 4 R R R - - 4 25 0.375 0.625 R - - - - ? 26 0 0 R - R - - ? 27 0 0 R - R - - ? 28 0 0 R R - R - ? 29 0 0 - - - - - ? 30 0 0 - R - R - ? 31 0 0 - - R - - ? 00 Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 07:22:03 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Last night at approx 8pm, I saw the most amazing cloud formation I have ever seen over Kilmore/Wallan(from my front yard. My son called out to me about a large mass of scud that had formed under the cell I have previously referred to. As I watched the cloud rounded and in the space of a few minutes, looked liked a mushroom (from underneath) complete with stalk. My camera was not ready, so I got no pics:-(( Any ideas what it was? I observed no rotation, was half expecting a funnel to drop out of it. This formation was in the NE quadrant of the storm. Enough from me. Peter +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: smtp4.ihug.co.nz: Host p100-nas6.akl.ihug.co.nz [203.173.216.100] claimed to be default From: "Steven Williams" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 09:20:16 +1300 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi, Its good to see photos so quickly. I wonder what role the seabrezze had in the development of these storms. Could this have been a seabreeze front/convergence zone. It will be interesting to see if Cb's dvelop in the same area again today. Cheers Steven W ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:20 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > A few pics of the day..... > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 06:49:05 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tanya, John and Carl, I'm in Brissy and I have the same eerie feeling here. But nothing seems to be happening. Guess time will tell. Rosalina ----- Original Message ----- From: Carl Smith To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:31 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > >hi, > > > >I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather > >forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in > >the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can > >only hope!). Thanks. > > > >Tanya > > Hi Tanya. > > I am also on the Gold Coast, and the weather certainly has a 'cyclonic' > type feel and look. > > This is due largely to the presence of a very large perhaps > monsoonal/subtropical hybrid type of circulation that has evolved out of > Tropical Depression 07F now centered near New Caledonia and it's > interaction with a High pressure ridge across the S of the continent. > > The moist onshore winds circulating around the low are being squeezed by > the High giving the stronger at times gale force winds that have been > experienced on the Gold Coast today, and are carrying in significant > showers tonight. > > If this large low hangs around for a few days we can expect these > conditions to continue - at various times over the last 24 hours I have > heard that it is moving WSW (towards the Gold Coast), S, and recently near > stationary, so I guess it is a little difficult for the forecasters to pin > down at the moment. > > Regards, > Carl. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Australian Weather News site transfer problems Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 09:03:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all There have been problems transferring domain names with the changeover from Yahoo to Featureprice hosts. australianweathernews.com and ftp://ftp.australianweathernews.com transferred yesterday, but have reverted to the Yahoo nameservers this morning! Two other sites I am porting across to Featureprice have not transferred at all. The DNS changes were delegated 3 days ago, and have shown up correctly with the new nameservers on Verisign whois for over two days, so I'm not sure what's going on. Featureprice tech support are working on it. In the meantime, you can get to the new host site directly using the IP address: http://66.186.211.80/ . Sorry, but this is going to be messy for a few days. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 09:08:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Alright, This is my report for Friday 25/1/02. Noticed some build up around Mt Dandenong and to the north from work in Kilsyth and prayed to the storm gods for some good fortune. Then at 3:30 as I was walking out of work, they answered me with a CG over near Montrose, a quick SMS to Jane to let her know that the cell was getting active and I was off home to pick up my camera gear then off to a nice little spot off Mooroolbark Rd which has a nice view to the East and over the Dandenong ranges. Got some video of some nice, but maybe a little weak, CG's over a period of about an hour. Also saw some suspicious looking scud and lowerings, but because of the lighting conditions I couldnt get enough contrast with the video camera to film them properly. Then I went back home to check the radar and lightning tracker to see what wonders were to come. There was some serious patches of dark red around Melbourne and Tullamarine with one particular cell which popped up just north of Melbourne Airport which looked good as it was heading straight at Mooroolbark. I made the decision to stay at home so I could keep an eye on the radar and have close access to food, drink and toilet. After around 25 - 30 minutes, sheet lightning was visible to the north and about 20 minutes after that the rain started. Once the rain had set in, the lightning became more active and as the cell was moving to the SE, I set up my video camera in our back door to try to catch some CG's. I only got one CG, but after reviewing the tape, it scarred the bejesus out of me. In the frame right before the CG is first visible, there is a step leader going up from my back fence which is about 2 or 3 metres from where I was standing. I am off to Ballarat today, so hopefully we will get some more action up there. Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: Tony Langdon To: Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 8:25 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > Hello Chris! > > 25 Jan 02 18:58, you wrote to All: > > CD> I missed out on the funnel though, must have been hidden behind the > CD> factory next to where I work. > > Interesting... Despite having been close to a couple of tornados in my life, > I've never seen one, and would love to. > > CD> > CD> We have a rather large cell that popped up NE of Tullamarine heading > CD> towards us right now, probably get here in a half hour or so, > CD> hopefully there will be some more sparks in it. > > Been some storm activity in the Niddrie area since around 1815 with a lot of > thunder and heavy rain. Eased off a bit now, looks like a cell to the NW, > which probably won't pass over here. > > Tony, VK3JED > > .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW > -- > |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 > |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au > | > | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "TJ" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 20:42:15 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi John, the cloudscapes are amazing at the moment, I was watching them in awe yesterday every chance that I got. Well you could be right about the rain event, it was only this time last year that the heavens opened up & flooded everything here. Oh well, theres always hope for a tropical cyclone! Tanya > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 12:27 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > > Hi Tanya, > > Not in the near future, but you are right about the eerie feeling. This > is backed up by all sorts of amazing cloudscapes, with layers moving in > different directions at different levels. But the BoM forecast for the > next few days seems rather benign, but I can't help feeling something is > brewing - maybe a major rain event. > > John. > >snip > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com] > Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 6:26 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > > hi, > > I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current > weather forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie > feeling in the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of > cyclone? (One can only hope!). Thanks. > > Tanya > Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\winmail2.dat" From: "TJ" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 20:48:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com hi Rosalina, I'm glad that there is someone else out there that has the same eerie feeling as I do, it just seems as if there is something brewing round here, huge waves down at Kirra beach & strong winds!! Fingers crossed!! Tanya -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Rosalina Champion Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:49 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx:Queensland activity Hi Tanya, John and Carl, I'm in Brissy and I have the same eerie feeling here. But nothing seems to be happening. Guess time will tell. Rosalina ----- Original Message ----- From: Carl Smith To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:31 AM Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > >hi, > > > >I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather > >forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in > >the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can > >only hope!). Thanks. > > > >Tanya > > Hi Tanya. > > I am also on the Gold Coast, and the weather certainly has a 'cyclonic' > type feel and look. > > This is due largely to the presence of a very large perhaps > monsoonal/subtropical hybrid type of circulation that has evolved out of > Tropical Depression 07F now centered near New Caledonia and it's > interaction with a High pressure ridge across the S of the continent. > > The moist onshore winds circulating around the low are being squeezed by > the High giving the stronger at times gale force winds that have been > experienced on the Gold Coast today, and are carrying in significant > showers tonight. > > If this large low hangs around for a few days we can expect these > conditions to continue - at various times over the last 24 hours I have > heard that it is moving WSW (towards the Gold Coast), S, and recently near > stationary, so I guess it is a little difficult for the forecasters to pin > down at the moment. > > Regards, > Carl. > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > Carl Smith. > Gold Coast. > Queensland. > Australia. > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\winmail3.dat" From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 09:45:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Steven, I've added a Victorian visible satpic (courtesy of Robert Goler) to the page, which may just help answer that question for you!! There's also a radar loop & a pic to the south that Bussy was watching ot the south of him from Rutherglen. Chris Daley's report has been added - read the bit about the step leader & think twice before you sit on a metal guard rail in a thunderstorm (pics to follow) http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm more images coming from David Simpson, Andrew McDonald & Robert Goler - but that'll be a little later, there is a sky out there beckoning.......... ..and today? Activity this morning has been primarily in the SE, but the rest of the state looks interesting also - the the west & along the ranges particularly in the NE - stay tuned. -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Steven Williams" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:20 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Hi, > Its good to see photos so quickly. I wonder what role the seabrezze had in > the development of these storms. > Could this have been a seabreeze front/convergence zone. It will be > interesting to see if Cb's dvelop in the same area > again today. > Cheers > Steven W > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:20 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > A few pics of the day..... > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > > > Jane > > > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- - > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx:Queensland activity Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 10:19:15 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tanya, Mmmm. The wind is not so strong here - but feels like something is slowly building. Rosalina ----- Original Message ----- From: TJ To: Sent: Friday, January 25, 2002 7:48 PM Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > hi Rosalina, > > I'm glad that there is someone else out there that has the same eerie > feeling as I do, it just seems as if there is something brewing round here, > huge waves down at Kirra beach & strong winds!! Fingers crossed!! > > Tanya > > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Rosalina > Champion > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:49 AM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: Re: aus-wx:Queensland activity > > > Hi Tanya, John and Carl, > > I'm in Brissy and I have the same eerie feeling here. But nothing seems to > be happening. Guess time will tell. > > Rosalina > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Carl Smith > To: > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:31 AM > Subject: RE: aus-wx:Queensland activity > > > > >hi, > > > > > >I was just wondering if anyone could fill me in on the current weather > > >forecast situation on the Gold coast? Their is a really eeirie feeling in > > >the air up here. Are we going to be hit by some type of cyclone? (One can > > >only hope!). Thanks. > > > > > >Tanya > > > > Hi Tanya. > > > > I am also on the Gold Coast, and the weather certainly has a 'cyclonic' > > type feel and look. > > > > This is due largely to the presence of a very large perhaps > > monsoonal/subtropical hybrid type of circulation that has evolved out of > > Tropical Depression 07F now centered near New Caledonia and it's > > interaction with a High pressure ridge across the S of the continent. > > > > The moist onshore winds circulating around the low are being squeezed by > > the High giving the stronger at times gale force winds that have been > > experienced on the Gold Coast today, and are carrying in significant > > showers tonight. > > > > If this large low hangs around for a few days we can expect these > > conditions to continue - at various times over the last 24 hours I have > > heard that it is moving WSW (towards the Gold Coast), S, and recently near > > stationary, so I guess it is a little difficult for the forecasters to pin > > down at the moment. > > > > Regards, > > Carl. > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~ > > Carl Smith. > > Gold Coast. > > Queensland. > > Australia. > > > > Email: carls at qldnet.com.au > > Current Tropical Cyclone information : > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm > > Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm > > Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: > > http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Anthony Violi" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 11:25:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane Not sure if anyone has seen the latest sounding for Melbourne,but it appears the LI's are at -3.8!!!This should hopefully put us in good stead for afternoon and evening activity. Anthony ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 9:45 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Steven, > > I've added a Victorian visible satpic (courtesy of Robert Goler) to the > page, which may just help answer that question for you!! There's also a > radar loop & a pic to the south that Bussy was watching ot the south of > him from Rutherglen. Chris Daley's report has been added - read the bit > about the step leader & think twice before you sit on a metal guard rail > in a thunderstorm (pics to follow) > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > more images coming from David Simpson, Andrew McDonald & Robert Goler - > but that'll be a little later, there is a sky out there > beckoning.......... > > ..and today? Activity this morning has been primarily in the SE, but > the rest of the state looks interesting also - the the west & along the > ranges particularly in the NE - stay tuned. > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Steven Williams" > To: > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:20 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > Hi, > > Its good to see photos so quickly. I wonder what role the seabrezze > had in > > the development of these storms. > > Could this have been a seabreeze front/convergence zone. It will be > > interesting to see if Cb's dvelop in the same area > > again today. > > Cheers > > Steven W > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Jane ONeill" > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:20 AM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > > > > A few pics of the day..... > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > > > > > Jane > > > > > > -------------------------------- > > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Australian Weather News site transfer problems Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 11:45:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sent nearly 3 hours ago, still hasn't shown up on the list. Try again... -----Original Message----- From: Laurier Williams [mailto:wbc at ozemail.com.au] Sent: Saturday, 26 January, 2002 9:04 AM To: Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com Subject: Australian Weather News site transfer problems Hi all There have been problems transferring domain names with the changeover from Yahoo to Featureprice hosts. australianweathernews.com and ftp://ftp.australianweathernews.com transferred yesterday, but have reverted to the Yahoo nameservers this morning! Two other sites I am porting across to Featureprice have not transferred at all. The DNS changes were delegated 3 days ago, and have shown up correctly with the new nameservers on Verisign whois for over two days, so I'm not sure what's going on. Featureprice tech support are working on it. In the meantime, you can get to the new host site directly using the IP address: http://66.186.211.80/ . Sorry, but this is going to be messy for a few days. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 11:55:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. Regular updating will begin late January. You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and with some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the meantime, you can access the raw AWS data files at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing rainfall districts at ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ in case you don't know your rainfall district. I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. Wind >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. Cheers Laurier Williams Australian Weather News http://www.australianweathernews.com but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Anthony Violi" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 11:25:51 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MDMail-Server: MDaemon v2.0 rU b1 32 X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Jane Not sure if anyone has seen the latest sounding for Melbourne,but it appears the LI's are at -3.8!!!This should hopefully put us in good stead for afternoon and evening activity. Anthony ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 9:45 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Steven, > > I've added a Victorian visible satpic (courtesy of Robert Goler) to the > page, which may just help answer that question for you!! There's also a > radar loop & a pic to the south that Bussy was watching ot the south of > him from Rutherglen. Chris Daley's report has been added - read the bit > about the step leader & think twice before you sit on a metal guard rail > in a thunderstorm (pics to follow) > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > more images coming from David Simpson, Andrew McDonald & Robert Goler - > but that'll be a little later, there is a sky out there > beckoning.......... > > ..and today? Activity this morning has been primarily in the SE, but > the rest of the state looks interesting also - the the west & along the > ranges particularly in the NE - stay tuned. > > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Steven Williams" > To: > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:20 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > Hi, > > Its good to see photos so quickly. I wonder what role the seabrezze > had in > > the development of these storms. > > Could this have been a seabreeze front/convergence zone. It will be > > interesting to see if Cb's dvelop in the same area > > again today. > > Cheers > > Steven W > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Jane ONeill" > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:20 AM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > > > > A few pics of the day..... > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > > > > > Jane > > > > > > -------------------------------- > > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: melbourne Storms To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 17:42:45 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 26/01/2002 05:42:59 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all. If anyone requires any updates re lightning, im at work until 10pm with access to GPATS. Dave Bathurst Contact phone 132795 (local call).(this is old number which will cease to operate soon. ) ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Subject: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW AWS observations Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 19:16:42 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The teething problems with shifting the domain name for Australian Weather News seems to have been fixed, and http://www.australianweathernews.com or http://australianweathernews.com will get you onto the new server. I have added the new format AWS observations for all NSW to the NSW Weather Briefing page at http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/~state_index.htm, or accessible off the home page. The boring weather in Sydney today means that the highlighters on wind speeds and rainfall aren't working, as there's nothing to highlight :), but elsewhere in the state there's some stronger winds and heavier rain that are triggering the highlights. Laurier +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David.Carroll at CountryEnergy.com.au Subject: aus-wx: strikes To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.7 March 21, 2001 Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 20:49:33 +1100 X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on CENTRAL01/Servers/Country Energy(Release 5.07a |May 14, 2001) at 26/01/2002 08:49:43 PM Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Getting some lightning strikes appearing at Mount Victoria in Blue Mountains. Radar not showing much rain. Dave ##################################################################################### This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are not necessarily the views of Country Energy. ##################################################################################### +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 21:23:16 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Took myself off out to the east of the state this afternoon & by applying the 'intercept approach' which worked so well on TDU, to the Cj's that could be seen just on the other side of Mt Dandenong (I was on the west side at that stage), I managed to get myself planted in between 2 grumbling, lightning active, mid-level funnel (*small*) producing cells between Traralgon & Sale. The one to the SE of me backbuilt until it was overhead & although I was perched inside the back of the car with my feet off the ground videoing, I started to feel distinctly unsafe. It turns out that Robert Goler & a mate of his were west of me photographing this really good storm (which I happened to be sitting under ). Lots of pics & video to go up from today.... aaah, the adrenaline rush when "There's a cell on the right & a cell on the left and you're in the middle. Now where else would you want to be??" SDS subsides again...... -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Violi" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:25 AM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > Jane > > Not sure if anyone has seen the latest sounding for Melbourne,but it appears > the LI's are at -3.8!!!This should hopefully put us in good stead for > afternoon and evening activity. > > Anthony > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Jane ONeill" > To: > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 9:45 AM > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > Steven, > > > > I've added a Victorian visible satpic (courtesy of Robert Goler) to the > > page, which may just help answer that question for you!! There's also a > > radar loop & a pic to the south that Bussy was watching ot the south of > > him from Rutherglen. Chris Daley's report has been added - read the bit > > about the step leader & think twice before you sit on a metal guard rail > > in a thunderstorm (pics to follow) > > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > > > more images coming from David Simpson, Andrew McDonald & Robert Goler - > > but that'll be a little later, there is a sky out there > > beckoning.......... > > > > ..and today? Activity this morning has been primarily in the SE, but > > the rest of the state looks interesting also - the the west & along the > > ranges particularly in the NE - stay tuned. > > > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Steven Williams" > > To: > > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 7:20 AM > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > > > > Hi, > > > Its good to see photos so quickly. I wonder what role the seabrezze > > had in > > > the development of these storms. > > > Could this have been a seabreeze front/convergence zone. It will be > > > interesting to see if Cb's dvelop in the same area > > > again today. > > > Cheers > > > Steven W > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "Jane ONeill" > > > To: > > > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 2:20 AM > > > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > > > > > > > > > > A few pics of the day..... > > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm > > > > > > > > Jane > > > > > > > > -------------------------------- > > > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > > - > > > > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > > your > > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > > -- > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- - > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: fluffy.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 23:16:07 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Sat, 26 Jan 2002, Jane ONeill wrote: > It turns out that Robert Goler & a mate of his were west of me > photographing this really good storm (which I happened to be sitting > under ). Lots of pics & video to go up from today.... Here are some video captures of the cell Jane mentioned, plus some anvil crawlers from just outside Pakenham later on. http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_26/today.html Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: fluffy.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sat, 26 Jan 2002 23:26:20 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-X-Sender: To: Subject: aus-wx: What's up with Sale local radar? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all Does anyone know why the Sale local radar isn't picking up precipitation within ~80km of it? It showed absolutely no sign of the rain which was happening to its west and north today, while the 512km Melbourne radar picked it all up fine. Cheers -- Robert A. Goler School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia ph. +61 3 9905 4424 email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 27 Jan 02 01:09:57 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Anthony! 26 Jan 02 11:25, you wrote to All: AV> Not sure if anyone has seen the latest sounding for Melbourne,but it AV> appears the LI's are at -3.8!!!This should hopefully put us in good AV> stead for afternoon and evening activity. Well, it didn't disappoint. Had one cell graze here, followed by two direct hits in quick succession. At one stage, there was a brownout, which sort of interrupted my monitoring of the radar loop. Not a lot of lightning, mostly distant thunder, but the rain was very heavy for 15 minutes or more for each cell that passed directly overhead. Was on IRLP at the time, so a couple of American friends, as well as a few locals got some live storm reports over the radio, and it enticed a couple of the Sydney guys to look at the radar for themselves (and then comment that things were "interesting" in Melbourne :) ). Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [210.49.122.207] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2002 02:06:01 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Jan 2002 15:06:01.0578 (UTC) FILETIME=[F7BEC4A0:01C1A67A] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Cell punched right through out FTG, Scorescby and Knox region, falls up to 15mm being recorded from three direct hits. Not bad, pitty I was not here to see it...Looking good for today, rain is approaching the border as I speak. Karl Lijnders (4S) >From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms >Date: 27 Jan 02 01:09:57 +1000 > >Hello Anthony! > >26 Jan 02 11:25, you wrote to All: > > AV> Not sure if anyone has seen the latest sounding for Melbourne,but it > AV> appears the LI's are at -3.8!!!This should hopefully put us in good > AV> stead for afternoon and evening activity. > >Well, it didn't disappoint. Had one cell graze here, followed by two >direct >hits in quick succession. At one stage, there was a brownout, which sort >of >interrupted my monitoring of the radar loop. > >Not a lot of lightning, mostly distant thunder, but the rain was very heavy >for >15 minutes or more for each cell that passed directly overhead. > >Was on IRLP at the time, so a couple of American friends, as well as a few >locals got some live storm reports over the radio, and it enticed a couple >of >the Sydney guys to look at the radar for themselves (and then comment that >things were "interesting" in Melbourne :) ). > >Tony, VK3JED > >.. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW >-- >|Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 >|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au >| >| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2002 14:09:55 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Pics from yesterday..... it might not have looked too astounding, but from underneath, well, that's a different story. http://www.stormchasers.au.com/26_01_02.htm Enjoy! -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Robert Goler" To: Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:16 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms > On Sat, 26 Jan 2002, Jane ONeill wrote: > > > It turns out that Robert Goler & a mate of his were west of me > > photographing this really good storm (which I happened to be sitting > > under ). Lots of pics & video to go up from today.... > > Here are some video captures of the cell Jane mentioned, plus some anvil > crawlers from just outside Pakenham later on. > > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2002_01_26/today.html > > > Cheers > > -- > > Robert A. Goler > > School of Mathematical Sciences > Monash University > Clayton, Vic 3800 > Australia > > ph. +61 3 9905 4424 > email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au > http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ > > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 27 Jan 02 19:36:08 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Karl! 27 Jan 02 02:06, you wrote to All: KL> Cell punched right through out FTG, Scorescby and Knox region, falls KL> up to 15mm being recorded from three direct hits. Not bad, pitty I KL> was not here to see it...Looking good for today, rain is approaching KL> the border as I speak. So far, pretty much a fizzer this evening here. Just cloud and humidity. Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Subject: aus-wx: Victorian storms 25/1/2002 Date: Sun, 27 Jan 2002 21:45:38 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Evening all, Have updated the report http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm with pics from Andrew McDonald, Robert Goler & David Simpson added. Have also updated the MSC front page so it is current for 2002 & moved the 2001 chase reports to http://www.stormchasers.au.com/reports00.htm except for the Leopold tornado report & TDU2001 report, both of which are still being worked on. Fortunately Melbourne has had a proliferation of storms over 2 days & there are already 4 reports to drool over at http://www.stormchasers.au.com The MSC Cafe page http://www.stormchasers.au.com/forecasting.htm has had a number of new links added. Thoughts, images, chase reports & suggestions all welcome. Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.228.78] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 01:24:00 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 27 Jan 2002 14:24:00.0771 (UTC) FILETIME=[43A3E530:01C1A73E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Well its not all so bad, some weak cells are appearing over the Western District with moderate rainfall. Rainbad to the north getting a little more intense as I speak. There is also a rain area E of Woomera moving S/SE and that should come into play for VIC today, wait for the changed forecast, hopefully this can stay to the west and make things a little more spicey for us today. Lets just wait and see, and Tony it was a shocker. >From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms >Date: 27 Jan 02 19:36:08 +1000 > >Hello Karl! > >27 Jan 02 02:06, you wrote to All: > > KL> Cell punched right through out FTG, Scorescby and Knox region, falls > KL> up to 15mm being recorded from three direct hits. Not bad, pitty I > KL> was not here to see it...Looking good for today, rain is approaching > KL> the border as I speak. > >So far, pretty much a fizzer this evening here. Just cloud and humidity. > >Tony, VK3JED > >.. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW >-- >|Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 >|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au >| >| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 28 Jan 02 02:02:10 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Karl! 28 Jan 02 01:24, you wrote to All: KL> Rainbad to the north getting a little more intense as I speak. There KL> is also a rain area E of Woomera moving S/SE and that should come into KL> play for VIC today, wait for the changed forecast, hopefully this can KL> stay to the west and make things a little more spicey for us today. KL> KL> Lets just wait and see, and Tony it was a shocker. Some rain around 1:30-2AM, so there's a start :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Saturday storms in Melbourne Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 12:12:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Jan 2002 01:14:54.0743 (UTC) FILETIME=[319F1A70:01C1A799] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
 
Just a quick report on what I got on Saturday arvo/evening.  I was at a BBQ in Healsville for lunch on Saturday and was expecting storms to develop over the ranges by about 3pm or so. Fortunately for all the people at the BBQ (and unfortunately for me) the cap help strong and nothing developed except for the stuff down in the SE of the state (initiated no doubt by the higher mositure levels in the east and also the ranges of the Baw Baw National Park).  I left Healsville at about 4:30pm and upon getting into clearer views could see very weak and small Cb's developing over the NE and E suburbs of Melbourne and some nice congestus was popping up tot he W and NW of the city.  Over the next hour or so, cells developed over the outer western suburbs near Melton and Sunbury.  These cells drifted slowly ESE and the northern most cell moved over my area (Greensborough), with the southern cell moving over the city.  The highest rainfall I have heard from these storms was Preston with 24mm.  Thanks to the slow movement of the storms, I had constant thunder at my place for nearly an hour and it rained moderately for a while as the core of the cell passed over.  I recorded 5mm of rain from it and had plenty of nice (but not overly close - only 1 or 2 within 1km) rumbles of thunder. 
 
Macca-wx
 
Andrew McDonald
Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:40:58 +1100 From: Tim Grugeon User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:0.9.4) Gecko/20011128 Netscape6/6.2.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW AWS observations Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier and others, Great work!!! I am currently working on pages that are similar to yours, but it is for the AWS's in the Hunter Region. It is a bit of a slow pace thing. I am very interested in being able to get access to AWS data that displays highlights. I have now got the up to date latest AWS readings for Williamtown and Scone on displayed my home page at http://www.hunterweather.com. Cheers, Tim Grugeon Maitland, NSW http://www.hunterweather.com Laurier Williams wrote: >The teething problems with shifting the domain name for Australian Weather >News seems to have been fixed, and http://www.australianweathernews.com or >http://australianweathernews.com will get you onto the new server. > >I have added the new format AWS observations for all NSW to the NSW Weather >Briefing page at >http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/~state_index.htm, or >accessible off the home page. The boring weather in Sydney today means that >the highlighters on wind speeds and rainfall aren't working, as there's >nothing to highlight :), but elsewhere in the state there's some stronger >winds and heavier rain that are triggering the highlights. > >Laurier > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Saturday Storms Report and Pics Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 16:37:01 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 28 Jan 2002 05:39:18.0772 (UTC) FILETIME=[2151D340:01C1A7BE] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
 
Check out the report and pics from Melbourne's storms on Saturday here:
 
 
Thanks to Jane for putting this up :-)
 
Regards,
 
Macca
(Andrew McDonald)
From: "Laurier Williams" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW AWS observations Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 18:22:53 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Tim, Nice site you have; very clean interface. I don't think you can get data that displays highlights. I'm achieving my highlighting by reprocessing the data in real time, and using a script in good old (very old) dBase that creates the html files (including highlighting) for each rainfall district. An SSI include script in the main shtml page then calls in the relevant rainfall district html files. I'm hoping to also put up runs of 24-hour rainfall and max and min temps (with appropriate highlighting), as I find that this basic information is quite hard to come by on the web. Finding today or yesterday's rain or temps is easy enough, but if you want to look at the month to date, or last month, it's close to impossible. I'm close to finishing the Sydney area briefing page apart from the 24-hour stuff. I want it to be as good as possible before I start replicating if for all over the country, because making changes in one place will be easier than in 50! But when it's ready to go, the other districts should start appearing fairly quickly, with the ability to click from one district to the next and have umpteen screens downloading their respective image/data sets. The AWS-by-rainfall-district panels are already being routinely generated (you can see them in the raw at http://australianweathernews.com/wxbr/awsobs/), so producing the remaining district forecast briefing pages is largely a matter of changing the links relevant to those for each area. Wish I had more spare time! Laurier > -----Original Message----- > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tim Grugeon > Sent: Monday, 28 January, 2002 2:41 PM > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW > AWS observations > > > Hi Laurier and others, > Great work!!! > I am currently working on pages that are similar to yours, but it is for > the AWS's in the Hunter Region. It is a bit of a slow pace thing. I am > very interested in being able to get access to AWS data that displays > highlights. > I have now got the up to date latest AWS readings for Williamtown and > Scone on displayed my home page at http://www.hunterweather.com. > > Cheers, > > Tim Grugeon > Maitland, NSW > http://www.hunterweather.com > > Laurier Williams wrote: > > >The teething problems with shifting the domain name for > Australian Weather > >News seems to have been fixed, and > http://www.australianweathernews.com or > >http://australianweathernews.com will get you onto the new server. > > > >I have added the new format AWS observations for all NSW to the > NSW Weather > >Briefing page at > >http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/~state_index.htm, or > >accessible off the home page. The boring weather in Sydney today > means that > >the highlighters on wind speeds and rainfall aren't working, as there's > >nothing to highlight :), but elsewhere in the state there's some stronger > >winds and heavier rain that are triggering the highlights. > > > >Laurier > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 19:59:31 +1100 From: Tim Grugeon User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Win98; en-US; rv:0.9.4) Gecko/20011128 Netscape6/6.2.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW AWS observations Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Laurier,

I must admit, after looking at the pages at
http://australianweathernews.com/wxbr/awsobs/, it appears as though you have done a lot of work to be able to get that far. I know from what I am doing with my site at present, it takes hours of programming just to be able to get a similar result to what you have for just two stations (Williamtown and Scone). I started writing the scripts a week ago and I am finding a new bug in it just about everytime I run them. :o( Fantastic work!!! Keep it up!!!

Cheers,

Tim Grugeon
Maitland, NSW
http://www.hunterweather.com
 


Laurier Williams wrote:
Hi Tim,

Nice site you have; very clean interface.

I don't think you can get data that displays highlights. I'm achieving my
highlighting by reprocessing the data in real time, and using a script in
good old (very old) dBase that creates the html files (including
highlighting) for each rainfall district. An SSI include script in the main
shtml page then calls in the relevant rainfall district html files. I'm
hoping to also put up runs of 24-hour rainfall and max and min temps (with
appropriate highlighting), as I find that this basic information is quite
hard to come by on the web. Finding today or yesterday's rain or temps is
easy enough, but if you want to look at the month to date, or last month,
it's close to impossible.

I'm close to finishing the Sydney area briefing page apart from the 24-hour
stuff. I want it to be as good as possible before I start replicating if for
all over the country, because mak ing changes in one place will be easier
than in 50! But when it's ready to go, the other districts should start
appearing fairly quickly, with the ability to click from one district to the
next and have umpteen screens downloading their respective image/data sets.
The AWS-by-rainfall-district panels are already being routinely generated
(you can see them in the raw at
http://australianweathernews.com/wxbr/awsobs/), so producing the remaining
district forecast briefing pages is largely a matter of changing the links
relevant to those for each area.

Wish I had more spare time!

Laurier


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Tim Grugeon
Sent: Monday, 28 January, 2002 2:41 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Weather News now on new host; new NSW
AWS observations


Hi Laurier and others,
Great work!!!
I am currently working on pages that are similar to yours, but it is for
the AWS's in the Hunter Region. It is a bit of a slow pace thing. I am
very interested in being able to get access to AWS data that displays
highlights.
I have now got the up to date latest AWS readings for Williamtown and
Scone on displayed my ho me page at http://www.hunterweather.com.

Cheers,

Tim Grugeon
Maitland, NSW
http://www.hunterweather.com

Laurier Williams wrote:

The teething problems with shifting the domain name for
Australian Weather
News seems to have been fixed, and
http://www.australianweathernews.com or
http://australianweathernews.com will get you onto the new server.

I have added the new format AWS observations for all NSW to the
NSW Weather
Briefing page at
http://www.australianweathernews.com/wxbr/nsw/~state_index.htm, or
accessible off the home page. The boring weather in Sydney today
means that
the highlighters on wind speeds and rainfall aren't working, as there's
nothing to highlight :), but elsewhere in the state there's some stronger
winds and heavier rain that are triggering the highlights.

Laurier

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To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



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To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------



From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Jan25th2002 - Wall Cloud Pics Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 21:14:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All I have been through the rest of my pics and have put together a series of the wallcloud/shelfcloud (what was it?) as it evolved over the SE suburbs of Melbourne on Friday evening. I chased this cell as it went through. Going down Stud Road I got extreme rain, flash flooding on the roads and some small hail. There were also some very strong gusts. My brother in cranbourne recieved marble sized hail. I rang the BOM to report the severe nature of the storm and they said they had recieved numerous reports of flash flooding in the area I was chasing. http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/jan25th2002wallcloud (click to enlarge) Here are some other pics from the day http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/jan25th2002&browse=Y http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0125mel128.gif The second link is the radar from this event, the cell the pics were taken off was the one moving through the SE suburbs. Here Nick +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p51-tnt8.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.51] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 21:48:27 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Jan25th2002 - Wall Cloud Pics Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Nick, It was a very nice structured storm with beautiful contrast. Definitely a look of a hailstorm. You can even see the light green tinge in the background and I take it there was more light green tinge than shown on the photographs? As to the existence of a wall cloud? How long did the structure last. There doesn't seem to be a persistent rear flank downdraught that would help with rotation. It seems to me that the storm was moving into an outflow dominant situation thence developing a shelf cloud like structure particularly evident in the last photograph. I take it the storm weakened after these photographs? Anyway, that is my attempt at trying to decipher the behaviour and structure of the storm. Jimmy Deguara At 09:14 PM 28/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Hey All > >I have been through the rest of my pics and have put together a series of >the wallcloud/shelfcloud (what was it?) as it evolved over the SE suburbs of >Melbourne on Friday evening. > >I chased this cell as it went through. Going down Stud Road I got extreme >rain, flash flooding on the roads and some small hail. There were also some >very strong gusts. My brother in cranbourne recieved marble sized hail. I >rang the BOM to report the severe nature of the storm and they said they had >recieved numerous reports of flash flooding in the area I was chasing. > >http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/jan25th2002wallcloud > >(click to enlarge) > >Here are some other pics from the day > >http://www.pbase.com/njsykes/jan25th2002&browse=Y > >http://www.stormchasers.au.com/Jan02/0125mel128.gif > >The second link is the radar from this event, the cell the pics were taken >off was the one moving through the SE suburbs. > >Here > >Nick > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 23:26:03 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com The next Queensland ASWA meeting (first for 2002) will be held this Saturday the 2nd of February. Some of the main features will include: - Showing of video footage (plenty of great storm and supercell days since the last meeting!) - Discussion of the setup of a few of the major storm days - Feature presentation will be "What is a Supercell?" with a discussion and presentation of this topic. - Usual "week in review" and "the week ahead" discussion topics - Recent ASWA affairs Date: Saturday, 2nd of February Time: 10am-2pm Place: "Pixel Components" Unit 9/14 Argon St. Sumner (Brisbane) What to bring? Yourself, photos, videos - $4 for pizza and drinks. Look forward to seeing you there! If possible, please drop me a quick email if you can attend at cyclone at bigpond.net.au, it's not essential, but it's always good to get an idea on numbers beforehand. -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 15:55:07 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Good day Laurier, I just had a look at your new site .It looks fanastic .Hope that it can extend to us in the ACT .Will keep you posted if we get any sig wx It has been very quiet here only some iso Cb to south and southwest on Saturday.Looks if the rainband over the Riverina will dispate before reaching us.We are in urgent need of rain-now into our second well below averge month rainfall wise. Gavin ,Southside Whr Watch ,Canberra. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Laurier Williams" To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:55 AM Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the > observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. > They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. Regular > updating will begin late January. > > You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and with > some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is > best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go > direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm > > The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall > districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district > weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the meantime, > you can access the raw AWS data files at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ > then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing > rainfall districts at ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ > in case you don't know your rainfall district. > > I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I > think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. Wind > >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. > > Cheers > > Laurier Williams > Australian Weather News > http://www.australianweathernews.com > but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 03:02:45 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken Ring vs the RNGs update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. I have been refining my analysis methods to overcome shortcomings revealing themselves in previous methods, and now have a methodology that looks to be both fair and comprehensive - however there may still be some refinements needed. In essense, it analyses both sides of the Rain/NoRain equation throughout as did Haralds simple method however it does so in a variety of ways that all have some merit. It fractionally distributes both the Rain and NoRain Obs between the two part days covered and does a numerical distribution that allows Kens +-1 day leeway to count without leading to a whole rash of extra hits - the best tallied hits result in the Leeway section can only come from a well aligned forecast which is checked internally from the original Obs and factored in to the tally result - see the NoRain hits for Mindless to illustrate that all the 'extra' leeway hits one may expect it to get do not give it such a great score wheras RNG#1 (which also has a perfect score in the first section!) is doing far better (however it loses ground in the Windows section, where Ken is doing far better). For those that do not want to bother with the tables below, here is the latest tally using my method: Ken 82% RNG#1 80% RNG#2 68% RNG#3 56% Mindl 32% And Haralds method: Ken 54% RNG#1 62% RNG#2 46% RNG#3 58% Mindl 69% Without filling space with lots of explanatary stuff that is the subject of a webpage that is being worked on, here are the result tables so far with some brief notes - first Haralds Raw method, then my now improved method, then Haralds Table (modified) - you will need to use a monospaced font and have line wrapping turned off to view the tables properly. Haralds Raw Method | Raw Raw Raw | | Rain NoRn Tot | Obs | 8 18 26 | Odds | 31% 69% 50% | | | Ken | 3 11 14 | | 38% 61% 54% | RNG#1 | 3 13 16 | | 38% 72% 62% | RNG#2 | 1 11 12 | | 13% 61% 46% | RNG#3 | 0 15 15 | | 0% 83% 58% | Mindl | 0 18 18 | | 0% 100% 69% | Improved Rain Windows Method | Exac Exac Exac | Lwy Lwy Obs | RnWn | DrWn | Wndw | | | Rain NoRn Tot | Rain NoRn Tot | Num | Num | Av | | Obs | 7 18 25 | 7 18 25 | 4 | 5 | 9 | | Odds | 28% 72% 50% | 30% 78% 54% | 32% | 40% | 36% | | | | | | | | | Fcst | Rain NoRn Av | Rain NoRn Av | RnWn RnWn RnWn | DrWn DrWn DrWn | Wndw | Av | | Days Days Days | Tim Tim Tim | Num Tim Av | Num Tim Av | Av | All | Ken | 9 16 | 5 14.4 | 4 4 | 4 4 | 8 | | | 71% 89% 80% | 72% 80% 76% | 100% 100% 100% | 80% 80% 80% | 90% | 82% | RNG#1 | 7 18 | 5.5 16.7 | 7 3 | 7 3 | 14 | | | 100% 100% 100% | 78% 93% 86% | 25% 75% 50% | 60% 60% 60% | 55% | 80% | RNG#2 | 8 17 | 3.1 14.7 | 7 3 | 8 3 | 15 | | | 86% 94% 90% | 45% 82% 63% | 25% 75% 50% | 40% 60% 50% | 50% | 68% | RNG#3 | 2 23 | 0.6 16.6 | 3 2 | 3 4 | 6 | | | 29% 72% 50% | 8% 92% 50% | 75% 50% 63% | 60% 80% 70% | 66% | 56% | Mindl | 0 25 | 0 14.2 | 0 0 | 1 4 | 1 | | | 0% 61% 31% | 0% 79% 39% | 0% 0% 0% | 20% 80% 50% | 25% | 32% | In the table above, sections are seperated by vertical lines and an average for the section is the last column prior to the vertical line. The analysed Obs constitute the first part of the table including an Odds row for each method. Below this are the forecasts where: The first section is a straight tally of Rain or NoRain days in the forecasts to date irrespective of timing and the percentage is derived from the Obs. The second section analyses the timing of the forecasts to the Obs including the +-1 day leeway. The third section analyses Rain Windows first by number regardless of timing then analyses the timing. The fourth section does the same with Dry Windows. The fifth single column section averages the results from the two kinds of windows. The final section adds the Av results of the first, second, and fifth sections and divides the total by three to give an overall result. I am open to suggestions for improvements. Harald's Table (modified) 1 mm Rain Threshold SydAP Dy Obs Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 9am Ja Rain Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Mindl 0 03 -- - - - - - 0 04 -- - - - - - 0 05 -- - - - R - 0 06 -R R - R - - 14 07 RR R R - - - 7.2 08 R- - - - - - 0 09 -- - R R R - 0 10 -- - - - - - 0 11 -- - R - - - 0 12 -- - - - - - 0 13 -- R - R - - 0 14 -- R - - - - 0 15 -R - - - - - 19 16 RR - R - - - 11.4 17 R- - - - - - 0.2 18 -- - - - - - 0 19 -- - - R - - 0 20 -- R - - - - 0 21 -R - R R - - 2.2 22 R- - - - - - 0 23 -R - R - - - 6.2 24 RR R R R - - 4 25 R- R - - - - 0 26 -- R - R - - 0 27 -- R - R - - 0 28 -? R R - R - ? 29 ?? - - - - - ? 30 ?? - R - R - ? 31 ?? - - R - - ? 00 Tot 64.2 mm Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p29-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.140.29] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 06:28:53 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Gavin, I have not seen or heard from you for a while. Welcome to the list. Perhaps you may want to introduce yourself to others telling them abut your fascination of the weather and what you do for a living etc. Nice to hear from you. Jimmy Deguara At 03:55 PM 28/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >Good day Laurier, I just had a look at your new site .It looks fanastic >.Hope that it can extend to us in the ACT .Will keep you posted if we get >any sig wx It has been very quiet here only some iso Cb to south and >southwest on Saturday.Looks if the rainband over the Riverina will dispate >before reaching us.We are in urgent need of rain-now into our second well >below averge month rainfall wise. >Gavin ,Southside Whr Watch ,Canberra. >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Laurier Williams" >To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" >Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:55 AM >Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > > > > Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the > > observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. > > They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. >Regular > > updating will begin late January. > > > > You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and >with > > some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is > > best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go > > direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at > > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm > > > > The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall > > districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district > > weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the meantime, > > you can access the raw AWS data files at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ > > then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing > > rainfall districts at >ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ > > in case you don't know your rainfall district. > > > > I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I > > think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. Wind > > >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. > > > > Cheers > > > > Laurier Williams > > Australian Weather News > > http://www.australianweathernews.com > > but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: David Jones To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" Subject: aus-wx: rerun of last Friday... Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 10:11:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com OK.. I know it is early day's and maybe I'm still suffering the after glow of our first decent batch of Melbourne thunderstorms since summer 1999/2000 (as far as I have seen, anyway), but the scenarios for Friday/Saturday are look like having real thunderstorm potential for Victoria. In particular, we see significant low/mid level northerlies/north easterlies develop across NSW and Victoria on Thursday/Friday ahead of a deepening easterly trough (and approaching upper level trough). With a rather humid air mass currently in place over western Queensland, this flow would be expected to be associated with increasing humidities over Victoria, and indeed this scenario is played out in the models (I've seen) with high relative humidities at such levels as 700 hPa by Friday. At the same time... the progged thickness values are near 564-8 suggesting nice warm low 30s temperatures, and the available instability indices suggest a nice unstable air mass (ToTots ~50 near Melbourne Friday/Saturday). Putting low 30s temperatures, good humidities, convergent flow into the trough, etc etc. together the ingredients look in place for another batch of thunderies.... This is matched by the forecast for Friday http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which reads "Warm to hot and unsettled". Anyway, happy weather watching... Regards, David PS Picked up 17mm all up from the weekend in Ferny Creek. Got seriously duped on Saturday by the storm which went through FTG, and somehow managed to pass just south of us - we received some very strong southerly outflow and 30 seconds of torrential rain (a shame really, as we are now balanced just below the 100mm mark for the month, and another 30 seconds of rain would have pushed us over the century for the third time in four months). David Jones email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Angell" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 12:11:10 +1100 Organization: SIMONS Thunder Down Under 2001 (www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001) X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Jan 2002 01:12:31.0132 (UTC) FILETIME=[066F8DC0:01C1A862] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Welcome to the list Gavin. I have been away for 10 days so i can't comment on recent storms for Canberra, But it port vila!!!!!!!!!!!! Hector (the convector) eat your heart out, try 6 hector's in all quadrants with a possilbe 3 more behind some of them, Unbeleivable convection (probably assisted by the TL out that way) if these storms were in a less humid/tropic environment they would probably be severe but alas it was just all looks but no show (except for rain) Ive got over 300 photos to develop so im heading to the local Kodak shop to see if i can get a deal, as i ALWAYS use kodak 400 film and for these photos i want to have quaility and who better than Kodak, its damn expensive though!!!!! Simon Angell Canberra ACT ICQ# 128920513 www.geocities.com/simons_tdu2001/ and the site in development www.geocities.com/simonstdu_2001/ ----- Original Message ----- From: "GAVIN O'BRIEN" To: Sent: Monday, January 28, 2002 3:55 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > Good day Laurier, I just had a look at your new site .It looks fanastic > .Hope that it can extend to us in the ACT .Will keep you posted if we get > any sig wx It has been very quiet here only some iso Cb to south and > southwest on Saturday.Looks if the rainband over the Riverina will dispate > before reaching us.We are in urgent need of rain-now into our second well > below averge month rainfall wise. > Gavin ,Southside Whr Watch ,Canberra. > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Laurier Williams" > To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" > Sent: Saturday, January 26, 2002 11:55 AM > Subject: aus-wx: Realtime AWS observations available in new format. > > > > Sydney observations for the past 6 hours are now available on the > > observations tag of the Sydney Briefing page at Australian Weather News. > > They are experimental at present and only being updated irregularly. > Regular > > updating will begin late January. > > > > You need to access the new host site version of AWN to get to them, and > with > > some problems occurring in transferring to the new host at present it is > > best to use the direct IP address: http://66.186.211.80/. Or you can go > > direct to the Sydney Weather Briefing page at > > http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/nsw/sydney_index.htm > > > > The data files are now being generated for all Australian rainfall > > districts, but obviously won't get linked into their respective district > > weather briefing pages until I create those pages ;) but in the meantime, > > you can access the raw AWS data files at http://66.186.211.80/wxbr/awsobs/ > > then click the link to your rainfall district. There are maps showing > > rainfall districts at > ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon2/home/ncc/metadata/sitemaps/ > > in case you don't know your rainfall district. > > > > I'd appreciate any feedback on this formatting of AWS observations -- I > > think it's the first time they've been on the net formatted this way. Wind > > >= 40km/h and rain >=6mm/h is highlighted. > > > > Cheers > > > > Laurier Williams > > Australian Weather News > > http://www.australianweathernews.com > > but for the moment, use http://66.186.211.80/ > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.209.112] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: rerun of last Friday... Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 12:25:23 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Jan 2002 01:25:23.0523 (UTC) FILETIME=[D2D11130:01C1A863] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey DJ, I agree, that this weekend has the potential too some pretty nice thunderies, however don't rule out Thursday either, some showers and thunderstorms may even spill off the NE and E ranges into the outer suburbs of Melbourne. Something worth watching Karl Lijnders >From: David Jones >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" >Subject: aus-wx: rerun of last Friday... >Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 10:11:12 +1100 > >OK.. I know it is early day's and maybe I'm still suffering the after glow >of our first decent batch of >Melbourne thunderstorms since summer 1999/2000 (as far as I have seen, >anyway), but the scenarios for Friday/Saturday >are look like having real thunderstorm potential for Victoria. In >particular, we see significant low/mid level northerlies/north easterlies >develop across NSW and Victoria on Thursday/Friday ahead of a deepening >easterly trough (and approaching upper level trough). With a rather humid >air mass currently >in place over western Queensland, this flow would be expected to be >associated with increasing humidities over >Victoria, and indeed this scenario is played out in the models (I've seen) >with high relative humidities >at such levels as 700 hPa by Friday. At the same time... the progged >thickness values are near 564-8 suggesting >nice warm low 30s temperatures, and the available instability indices >suggest a nice unstable air mass (ToTots ~50 >near Melbourne Friday/Saturday). Putting low 30s temperatures, good >humidities, convergent flow into the trough, etc etc. >together the ingredients look in place for another batch of thunderies.... >This is matched by the forecast for Friday >http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which reads "Warm to >hot and unsettled". > >Anyway, happy weather watching... > >Regards, > >David > >PS > >Picked up 17mm all up from the weekend in Ferny Creek. Got seriously duped >on Saturday by the storm which went through FTG, and somehow managed to >pass >just south of us - we received some very strong southerly outflow and 30 >seconds of torrential rain (a shame really, as we are now balanced just >below the 100mm mark for the month, and another 30 seconds of rain would >have pushed us over the century for the third time in four months). > > >David Jones >email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: rerun of last Friday... Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 14:30:49 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Jan 2002 03:33:12.0059 (UTC) FILETIME=[AD9ECCB0:01C1A875] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Afternoon fellow weather watchers, Firstly to the issue of Nick's pics....I don't think its a wall cloud. I think a shelf cloud is a lot more likely. I'd seriously doubt that this cell was a supercell. Conditions were not very supportive of supercellular convection. I'd speculate that it was a single (or maybe two) strong pulse(s) which resulted in this spectacular feature. (i'm not saying that a cell has to be a supercell to have a wall cloud though.....the wall cloud doesn't even have to be rotating to get the term "wall cloud" - these can be common misconceptions associated with wall clouds). Anyway - onto this week(end). I don't think we'll see anything too close to Melbourne on Thursday. The weak front coming through on Wednesday will stabilise things in the south a bit. I think Thursday will be best in the NE parts of the state - perhaps Albury - Bright area if anyone was looking at chasing. I can do a more detailed f'cast later in the week (like tomorrow) when we get a better idea of what's happening. Friday looks to be quite similar to last Friday with a trough deepening over the W of the state giving mosit NE'ly sfc flow across much of the state. The remnants of an upper trough will be sitting across the eastern parts and a weak upper ridge will be across the western parts. The BoM are going for storms on the ranges and also near the trough which is a fair call IMO but I think anywhere E of the trough will stand a chance. Again shear will be very weak on Thursday and Friday so storms should be slow moving. Saturday is a lot more interesting and guess what.....I HAVE TO WORK.....ARGH!!!!!!!! (well - if it looks that great i may have to change out of this shift). The trough is forecast to deepen further and move across Victoria bringing widespread showers and storms. Shear should increase throughout the day as a beefy upper trough pushes in from the W. I doubt sunday will have anything as the models have the trough moving off to NSW by early Sunday so unless you want to head into Sydney and the Hunter on Sunday you might want to give it a miss. Macca-wx ----- Original Message ----- From: David Jones To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2002 10:11 AM Subject: aus-wx: rerun of last Friday... > OK.. I know it is early day's and maybe I'm still suffering the after glow > of our first decent batch of > Melbourne thunderstorms since summer 1999/2000 (as far as I have seen, > anyway), but the scenarios for Friday/Saturday > are look like having real thunderstorm potential for Victoria. In > particular, we see significant low/mid level northerlies/north easterlies > develop across NSW and Victoria on Thursday/Friday ahead of a deepening > easterly trough (and approaching upper level trough). With a rather humid > air mass currently > in place over western Queensland, this flow would be expected to be > associated with increasing humidities over > Victoria, and indeed this scenario is played out in the models (I've seen) > with high relative humidities > at such levels as 700 hPa by Friday. At the same time... the progged > thickness values are near 564-8 suggesting > nice warm low 30s temperatures, and the available instability indices > suggest a nice unstable air mass (ToTots ~50 > near Melbourne Friday/Saturday). Putting low 30s temperatures, good > humidities, convergent flow into the trough, etc etc. > together the ingredients look in place for another batch of thunderies.... > This is matched by the forecast for Friday > http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV10310.txt which reads "Warm to > hot and unsettled". > > Anyway, happy weather watching... > > Regards, > > David > > PS > > Picked up 17mm all up from the weekend in Ferny Creek. Got seriously duped > on Saturday by the storm which went through FTG, and somehow managed to pass > just south of us - we received some very strong southerly outflow and 30 > seconds of torrential rain (a shame really, as we are now balanced just > below the 100mm mark for the month, and another 30 seconds of rain would > have pushed us over the century for the third time in four months). > > > David Jones > email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Simon Clarke" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Next QLD ASWA Meeting Date: Tue, 29 Jan 2002 18:24:38 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 29 Jan 2002 08:25:39.0209 (UTC) FILETIME=[88896790:01C1A89E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Anthony Not sure if I can get there this time - I have a dishwasher being delivered sometime between 9am and 12 noon on Saturday. If it gets here early, I will definitely come along ( I may be a bit late though). If you get a few people, it would be great to show some of that slow-motion lightning we saw at the mini-meet. Regards Simon +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Vic Wx - Thur/Fri Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 12:53:20 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 30 Jan 2002 01:55:46.0741 (UTC) FILETIME=[3BF3CE50:01C1A931] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Afternoon all,

My thoughts for the day....

Tomorrow has the potential to be quite good in NE VIC/SE NSW with AVN progging some very nice instabilty but a complete lack of shear will see storms being quite pulsey and most likely being severe for short periods of time. Cool upper levels may allow for some small large hail to develop (to about 2-2.5cm at best) but the biggest threat tomorrow afternoon and evening will be very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding (given the slow movement likely with storms tomorrow) and also damaging winds in downbursts. 850 temps are progged to be about 18-19C in the area tomorrow, providing a nice cap. The ranges should go up by mid afternoon and anything devleoping off the ranges will probably pop after 4pm.

Friday is looking interesting. The upper level trough (as in 300mb) moves off to the E of the state with moderate upper level ridging pushing into the west of the state. The 500mb trough is progged to be sitting over the W of the state (part of the reason why the LI's are -4 to -5 out that way no doubt). This is OK but it could mean that storms will be quite low topped (being 27-30,000ft) in the western parts of the state. Shear is marginally better in the W half of the state on Friday so storms should actually move, unlike Thursday...hehe. Given that moderate instability is progged for Melbourne as well on Friday and the upper level temps are more favourbale over this area I am currently thinking that I wouldn't get too far away from here. Of course this will depend a lot on what happens tomorrow and also what Friday morning shows (in terms of moisture, cloud, etc).  More detail for Friday will follow tomorrow.


Andrew McDonald

(Macca-wx)

From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne Storms Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 20:31:30 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Have updated the report on the storms on Friday in Melbourne with some lightning captures courtesy of Chris Daley. Enjoy!! http://www.stormchasers.au.com/25_01_02.htm -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p441-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.187] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 21:48:14 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Latest pics Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Brighten up a little activity on the list with a reminder of what happened around a month ago: http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd20020130.html Dates as usual reflected in the URL Cheers. ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2002 22:07:04 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (Win98; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List Subject: aus-wx: Interesting SE QLD/NE NSW Weather Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, Been an interesting few days in SE QLD and NE NSW (and much of the east coast). Dew points have been around 20 along much of the NSW east coast, and into the low 20s in SE QLD. In fact, it's not too disimilar to the hot weather we had a month ago, DPs are only down a little and temperatures only a few degrees cooler. Yet what have the winds been? If I told you we've been getting obs of 32/23 for the past few days...you would probably guess NE! But not quite...it's been SE, with gale force southerlies along the coast! Not quite the usual temperatures in SE'lies, but the broad low pressure system in the southern Coral has been wrapping around warm, humid NE'lies on its eastern side and directing them over land - so the wind has been sort of a pseudo NE'ly, just coming to us from the SE. Certainly been hot and muggy! There were some very nice showers around here today - the upper levels were very warm a few days ago, the freezing level sitting at around 18,000ft :eek: But it cooled a little today, allowing strong showers getting up to 15,000ft or so (still some capping aloft above that). But tomorrow that will cool a little further...might be a chance of some thunder in those showers tomorrow in SE QLD/NE NSW. A little on Friday too, but Saturday may not be a bad day for instability either - I noticed the LIs are -4 to -5 over Brisbane, -5 to -6 just to the west, and there's more cooler air moving through too (around -8C at 500mb). Quite warm really...but better than what we've been having! Just need to get the PBL moisture up a bit more that's all - as there's been a relatively shallow moist layer of recent. Be interesting to see what happens! -- Anthony Cornelius Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rhett Blanch" To: Subject: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 00:07:12 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and noticed that I had caught "the cloud" on film! http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm Rhett +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: carls at xenios.qldnet.com.au Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 01:00:10 +1000 To: Aussie Weather List , astro-weather at topica.com From: Carl Smith Subject: aus-wx: Ken Ring vs the RNG's - update Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi All. As an extra control measure, I introduced yet another 'forecaster' called "Flood" (rain every day) and renamed (not so) Mindless as "Drowt". Taking this step revealed some shortcomings as Flood ended up with about -175% in one section! I was then able to have a good look at the methods I was using and do still more refining of the formulae (will it ever end???). The first thing you may notice is that I dropped the extra columns as I realised they were just a rather poor effort at doing in another way what was already done rather better in the Timing (formerly Leeway) section. Another refinement was to determine the average in each section by the proportion between rain and fine in the relevent Obs section instead of just adding both and dividing by 2 - this gives the average as a more realistic figure for the whole period instead of giving the smaller "Rain" sample the same weight as the rather larger "Fine" sample. For those who may want to know progress scores without delving into the tables further below: By Harald's method: Ken 54% RNG#1 64% RNG#2 46% RNG#3 61% Drowt 68% Flood 32% By my method: Ken 85% RNG#1 84% RNG#2 77% RNG#3 74% Drowt 40% Flood 11% Haralds Raw Method | Raw Data | | Rain Fine Tot | Obs | 9 19 28 | Odds | 32% 68% 50% | | | Ken | 3 12 15 | | 33% 63% 54% | RNG#1 | 4 14 18 | | 44% 74% 64% | RNG#2 | 1 12 13 | | 11% 63% 46% | RNG#3 | 1 16 17 | | 11% 84% 61% | Drowt | 0 19 19 | | 0% 100% 68% | Flood | 9 0 9 | | 100% 0% 32% | My Method (further refined!) | Number of Days | Timing | Windows | Av | | Rain Fine Tot | Rain Fine Tot | Rain Fine Tot | All | Obs | 8 20 28 | 8 20 28 | 5 5 10 | | Odds | 29% 71% 50% | 31% 77% 54% | 36% 36% 36% | 47% | | | | | | Fcst | Number of Days | Timing | Windows | Resu | | Rain Fine Av | Rain Fine Av | Rain Fine Av | All | Ken | 10 18 | 5.7 16 | 4 5 9 | | | 80% 90% 87% | 71% 80% 77% | 80% 100% 90% | 85% | RNG#1 | 8 20 | 6.8 18.3 | 8 8 16 | | | 100% 100% 100% | 85% 92% 90% | 63% 63% 63% | 84% | RNG#2 | 9 19 | 3.3 16.8 | 7 8 15 | | | 89% 95% 93% | 41% 84% 72% | 71% 63% 67% | 77% | RNG#3 | 3 25 | 1.6 19 | 4 4 8 | | | 38% 80% 68% | 20% 95% 74% | 80% 80% 80% | 74% | Drowt | 0 28 | 0 16.3 | 0 1 1 | | | 0% 71% 51% | 0% 81% 58% | 0% 20% 10% | 40% | Flood | 28 0 | 4.4 0 | 1 0 1 | | | 29% 0% 8% | 55% 0% 16% | 20% 0% 10% | 11% | Harald's Table (modified) 1 mm Rain Threshold SydAP Dy Obs Fcst1 Fcst2 Fcst3 Fcst4 Fcst5 Fcst6 9am Ja Rain Ken RNG#1 RNG#2 RNG#3 Drowt Flood 0 02 -- 0 03 -- - - - - - R 0 04 -- - - - - - R 0 05 -- - - - R - R 0 06 -R R - R - - R 14 07 RR R R - - - R 7.2 08 R- - - - - - R 0 09 -- - R R R - R 0 10 -- - - - - - R 0 11 -- - R - - - R 0 12 -- - - - - - R 0 13 -- R - R - - R 0 14 -- R - - - - R 0 15 -R - - - - - R 19 16 RR - R - - - R 11.4 17 R- - - - - - R 0.2 18 -- - - - - - R 0 19 -- - - R - - R 0 20 -- R - - - - R 0 21 -R - R R - - R 2.2 22 R- - - - - - R 0 23 -R - R - - - R 6.2 24 RR R R R - - R 4 25 R- R - - - - R 0 26 -- R - R - - R 0 27 -- R - R - - R 0 28 -- R R - R - R 0 29 -R - - - - - R 3.2 30 R? - R - R - R ? 31 ?? - - R - - R ? 01 ?? ? 02 Tot 67.4 mm Regards, Carl. ~~~~~~~~~~ Carl Smith. Gold Coast. Queensland. Australia. Email: carls at qldnet.com.au Current Tropical Cyclone information : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/current.htm Tropical Cyclone Tracking Maps : http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm Weather-Ezine LR forecasting archives: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p441-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.187] claimed to be jimmy.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 06:27:53 +1100 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Rhett, Forget about that. I would say that it is a "particularly dangerous situation. Take cover immediately". That supercell could become tornadic. Jimmy Deguara At 12:07 AM 31/1/2002 +1100, you wrote: >I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and noticed >that I had caught "the cloud" on film! >http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm > >Rhett > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 06:29:50 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Goodness Rhett, ...The Cloud is a mere shadow of its former self...must be awfully dry up your way - I hope you sent The Cloud coastwards for some R & R.. and for those of you who don't know The Cloud's history, go here.... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm Rhett, I'll add your photo to the journey..... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Rhett Blanch" To: Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 12:07 AM Subject: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film > I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and noticed > that I had caught "the cloud" on film! > http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm > > Rhett > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:16:46 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane and all, I had a good chuckle at "The Cloud" - thanks. Ants are busy here in Brisbane. Hope it means something. Rosalina > Goodness Rhett, > > ...The Cloud is a mere shadow of its former self...must be awfully dry > up your way - I hope you sent The Cloud coastwards for some R & R.. > > and for those of you who don't know The Cloud's history, go here.... > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm > > Rhett, I'll add your photo to the journey..... > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Rhett Blanch" > To: > Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 12:07 AM > Subject: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film > > > > I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and > noticed > > that I had caught "the cloud" on film! > > http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm > > > > Rhett > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > -- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:34:25 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Here in Hong Kong we could really do with a visit from "The Cloud". Actually we could really do with almost anything. Weather here has been altogether too boring. Typical winter. Every day you log in to look at the forecast - you only half read it anyway, because you know there will be no excitement in it - then you yawn long and loud and find something better to do. This is definitely SDS time in HK. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: "Rosalina Champion" To: Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 10:16:46 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film > Hi Jane and all, > > I had a good chuckle at "The Cloud" - thanks. > > Ants are busy here in Brisbane. Hope it means something. > > Rosalina > > > > Goodness Rhett, > > > > ...The Cloud is a mere shadow of its former self...must be awfully > dry > > up your way - I hope you sent The Cloud coastwards for some R & R.. > > > > and for those of you who don't know The Cloud's history, go here.... > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/humour.htm > > > > Rhett, I'll add your photo to the journey..... > > > > Jane > > -------------------------------- > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > > > ASWA - Victoria > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > > -------------------------------- > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Rhett Blanch" > > To: > > Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 12:07 AM > > Subject: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film > > > > > > > I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and > > noticed > > > that I had caught "the cloud" on film! > > > http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm > > > > > > Rhett > > > > > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body > of > > your > > > message. > > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- > > -- > > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > > message. > > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Cloud Splotch. Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:51:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 02:56:56.0230 (UTC) FILETIME=[F18D2460:01C1AA02] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all tropos.
A somewhat interesting cloud area just north and northwest of the Kimberley region of WA. An area of surface enhanced convergence has been present over the far north of WA for a few days and now appears to have moved offshore, upper divergence is rather weak but some outflow characteristics can be seen, seems to be moving west southwest.regards Clyve H.
From: "Clyve Herbert" To: Subject: aus-wx: Fw: Cloud Splotch. Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 13:56:44 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 02:58:53.0124 (UTC) FILETIME=[3739C040:01C1AA03] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 1:51 PM
Subject: Cloud Splotch.

Hi all tropos.
A somewhat interesting cloud area just north and northwest of the Kimberley region of WA. An area of surface enhanced convergence has been present over the far north of WA for a few days and now appears to have moved offshore, upper divergence is rather weak but some outflow characteristics can be seen, seems to be moving west southwest.regards Clyve H.
From: "Andrew" To: Subject: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:29:39 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 04:32:11.0381 (UTC) FILETIME=[400BFA50:01C1AA10] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Afternoon all,

Apologies for the delay in today's forecast...had things to tend to and things to think about (thanks Kevin <g>)

As expected, the weak front passed to our S and has given us some nice stable surface air to play "pick the sunny break between the Strato Cu" game. Our sounding this morning shows how stable the atmosphere is today across much of southern Victoria with a temperature in the high 30's required to actually kick something of signifiance off (and i *seriously* doubt that is going to happen).

Ok - now onto the convective forcast for today and tomorrow (and even Saturday).

Today: Temperatures across the NE of the state are hitting the low-mid 30's as we speak and should probably get close to (if not slightly above) 36C near the border over the next few hours. Dew points are currently sitting between 11 and 14C across the eastern and north eastern areas and the soundings in both Melb and Wagga show nice moist PBL's of about 10-11C up to about 900mb. Given that there are currently showers/weak storms on the ranges just NE of Albury in the Tumbarumba region, i'd expect thunderstorm activity to extend down across the Victorian alps over the next few hours. There are also a few showers/weak storms popping up closer to the axis of the developing trough which at the moment looks to run just west of Griffith in NSW down to about Benalla. Temperatures in the Griffith area have reached about 36C with DP's ranging from 14-16C so this convection kicked off probably by the convergence closer to the trough is not surprising. The trough itself could be an area to watch this afternoon as the temperatures get warmer further S (nearer to Vic) and the moist air from the coastal areas is advected across the ranges towards the developing trough. Convection should spread slowly southwards along this trough line giving places off the ranges the chance of a late storm (to the W and SW of Albury). Although likely to be very slow moving given the complete lack of shear, some storms could produce some very heavy rainfall and maybe some strong winds. I'd think that small hail to about 1cm is possible off the ranges but the alpine areas could see some slighly larger hail (say to 2cm) in a storms due to the elevation and in essence the reduced freezing level. Interestingly, AVN has a 300mb cold pool sitting NW-SE across Melbourne this afternoon which should causing some decent destabilization (of about 1-1.5C) over the next 6 hours in the N and E parts of the state and although weakening slightly, it could see storms continue into the evening and after dark. This cold pool could potentially see some quite large storms developing with estimated tops of 37,000-40,000ft possible. Further to this, a weak 500mb trough persists through central areas throughout the period (Thurs - Fri) which has temps of about -11.5 to -12C. Given the complete lack of shear over the NE today (and S NSW for that matter) storm movement will most likely be due to propogation than anything else.

Tomorrow (Friday): Tomorrow should prove to be an interesting day - there will be something to be learned from tomorrow. Instability across the state should increase significantly as the trough deepens through western Victoria. My biggest concern tomorrow is the upper level ridging forecast to push into the western parts as the 300mb trough moves off to the east. Upper levels look to warm by as much as 4C in some places which could see storms topping out at quite low levels. The 500mb trough mentioned above is quite deceptive and those who follow the LI's a lot may see how volatile this index can be. LI's of -5 to -6 are progged by AVN in an area around Colac tomorrow but this area is seeing strong upper ridging (above 500mb) at the same time. So even though up to 500mb the atmosphere is quite unstable, above that, the airmass seemingly stabilizes significantly - to the point where only showers and weak storms may occur. The NE-N'ly flow into the trough should bring in additional mositure across the entire state and temperatures are forecast to reach the low-mid 30's. Given the 850mb temps of 16-19C the cap should be of a decent enough strength to keep things quiet until mid-late afternoon although as per last week the first places likely to go will be the ranges and also close to the trough. Note that convection could become widespread if temperatures across the state are slightly higher than forecast. Again shear will be very weak although the small amount there is should see storms move in a SE'ly direction (although propogation of storms could see them move all over the place so don't be surprised if they move a tad backwards or sidewards...hehe). I will probably be hanging around Melbourne until at least lunchtime tomorrow before making my decision as to where to head so I'll do some more notes tomorrow morning.

Saturday: Well - now that this is so long I'll leave Saturday until tomorrow morning or tonight. Interestingly though, some of the models hint at the trough being quite slow moving and giving parts of Victoria a chance at storms again (namely north cent, northern country, north east, alpine and eastern districts). More detail to follow later on this.

Incidentally, since I started this email/post cells have gone from green to red now on radar to the SSSE of Wagga Wagga. Of course I chose not to chase up there today given that Wagga - Albury - Yarrawonga - Narrandera was my target area (i had other committments).

Regards,

Andrew McDonald

 

X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:09:54 +0930 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Phil Bagust Subject: Re: aus-wx: We are all iving in the wrong spot!!! Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all I came across this interesting link: http://www1.msfc.nasa.gov/newsroom/NSSTC/news/releases/2002/N02-001.html It appears that central Africa is the place to be, storm lovers! [I wouln't know - can't remember what one looks like ;)] Phil in warm, sunny, Adelaide +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.21.240] From: "Karl Lijnders" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 16:26:38 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 05:26:39.0121 (UTC) FILETIME=[DBC58810:01C1AA17] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com LOL Rhett thats a good one Karl:) >From: "Rhett Blanch" >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com >To: >Subject: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film >Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 00:07:12 +1100 > >I was going through some photos I took over the Chrismas break and noticed >that I had caught "the cloud" on film! >http://wilgatree.com/gallery/thecloud.htm > >Rhett > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather) Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 16:28:52 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Andrew, Hi list, > ... Given that there are currently = > showers/weak storms on the ranges just NE of Albury in the Tumbarumba = > region, i'd expect thunderstorm activity to extend down across the = > Victorian alps over the next few hours. There are also a few = > showers/weak storms popping up closer to the axis of the developing = > trough which at the moment looks to run just west of Griffith in NSW = > down to about Benalla. There is an abrupt cutoff to a Cu field extending E of a line through Yarrawonga and Griffith. Deep convection has formed right along the W edge of this Cu field (bounday-initiated?), and more convection seems to be terrain-forced cells in the Tumbarumba and Cowra areas. > Temperatures in the Griffith area have reached = > about 36C with DP's ranging from 14-16C so this convection kicked off = > probably by the convergence closer to the trough is not surprising. Griffith, for example, must now be somewhere near 35/10, so those storms must have bases in the ionosphere... Harald _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Reply-To: "Aussie Wx List" From: "Mark Hardy" To: , Subject: [ Aussie Wx List ] Vis satpics Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 16:44:05 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal X-Errors-To: postmaster at theweather.com.au Hi all, We have updated Weatherzone to include national and state visible satellite images. These are available as a link of each satellite IR sector. Cheers, Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.weatherzone.com.au Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\mhardy at theweather.com.au.vcf" -- Visit WeatherZone, the site for weather freaks http://www.weatherzone.com.au -- To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: aussie-weather-unsubscribe at theweather.com.au From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 16:54:29 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 05:57:01.0966 (UTC) FILETIME=[1A459AE0:01C1AA1C] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Harald and others, Hrm - they are quite high bases....hehe.....i'd say 6-7000ft would be about right. The 15:30 AEDT Vic Vis sat pic shows a great example of how the ranges can play a part in convection. Although most of you cannot actually see it there is a Cu field extending along the ranges near the Kiewa Valley in NE Vic (extending down to the Dargo High Plains) and another extending along the ranges from Benalla to Mansfield. Other than that there isn't much Cu over the other surrounding areas. This could be where the warmer, moister NE'lys have funneled down the valleys and then up the ranges. Also of interest is the latest WV image which shows the upper trough lying WNW-ESE across/just N of Melbourne as we speak. It will be interesting to see what happens to the convection on the ranges as this feature encroaches on that area. If anything does pop to the NE we should be able to see it now that the cloud has cleared. The area around Mt Hotham is probably most likely to go if it does. The area around Temora in S NSW could also pop over the next hour or so so keep an eye on that area. Macca-wx ----- Original Message ----- From: Harald Richter To: Aussie Weather Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 4:28 PM Subject: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC > > Hi Andrew, Hi list, > > > ... Given that there are currently = > > showers/weak storms on the ranges just NE of Albury in the Tumbarumba = > > region, i'd expect thunderstorm activity to extend down across the = > > Victorian alps over the next few hours. There are also a few = > > showers/weak storms popping up closer to the axis of the developing = > > trough which at the moment looks to run just west of Griffith in NSW = > > down to about Benalla. > > There is an abrupt cutoff to a Cu field extending E of a line > through Yarrawonga and Griffith. Deep convection has formed right along the > W edge of this Cu field (bounday-initiated?), and more convection > seems to be terrain-forced cells in the Tumbarumba and Cowra areas. > > > Temperatures in the Griffith area have reached = > > about 36C with DP's ranging from 14-16C so this convection kicked off = > > probably by the convergence closer to the trough is not surprising. > > Griffith, for example, must now be somewhere near 35/10, so those storms > must have bases in the ionosphere... > > Harald > > _________________________________________________________________________ > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > _________________________________________________________________________ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Andrew" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 17:10:24 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 06:12:56.0512 (UTC) FILETIME=[5339C400:01C1AA1E] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com And as we speak a CB has just popped up near Mansfield. Its clearly visibile from Melbourne. More large TCu going up further NE too up over the Alpine National Park no doubt. We could potentially get some distant lightning if these storms can maintain themselves. Andrew McDonald ----- Original Message ----- From: Andrew To: Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 4:54 PM Subject: Re: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC > Harald and others, > > Hrm - they are quite high bases....hehe.....i'd say 6-7000ft would be about > right. > > The 15:30 AEDT Vic Vis sat pic shows a great example of how the ranges can > play a part in convection. Although most of you cannot actually see it > there is a Cu field extending along the ranges near the Kiewa Valley in NE > Vic (extending down to the Dargo High Plains) and another extending along > the ranges from Benalla to Mansfield. Other than that there isn't much Cu > over the other surrounding areas. This could be where the warmer, moister > NE'lys have funneled down the valleys and then up the ranges. > > Also of interest is the latest WV image which shows the upper trough lying > WNW-ESE across/just N of Melbourne as we speak. It will be interesting to > see what happens to the convection on the ranges as this feature encroaches > on that area. If anything does pop to the NE we should be able to see it > now that the cloud has cleared. The area around Mt Hotham is probably most > likely to go if it does. The area around Temora in S NSW could also pop > over the next hour or so so keep an eye on that area. > > Macca-wx > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Harald Richter > To: Aussie Weather > Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 4:28 PM > Subject: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC > > > > > > Hi Andrew, Hi list, > > > > > ... Given that there are currently = > > > showers/weak storms on the ranges just NE of Albury in the Tumbarumba = > > > region, i'd expect thunderstorm activity to extend down across the = > > > Victorian alps over the next few hours. There are also a few = > > > showers/weak storms popping up closer to the axis of the developing = > > > trough which at the moment looks to run just west of Griffith in NSW = > > > down to about Benalla. > > > > There is an abrupt cutoff to a Cu field extending E of a line > > through Yarrawonga and Griffith. Deep convection has formed right along > the > > W edge of this Cu field (bounday-initiated?), and more convection > > seems to be terrain-forced cells in the Tumbarumba and Cowra areas. > > > > > Temperatures in the Griffith area have reached = > > > about 36C with DP's ranging from 14-16C so this convection kicked off = > > > probably by the convergence closer to the trough is not surprising. > > > > Griffith, for example, must now be somewhere near 35/10, so those storms > > must have bases in the ionosphere... > > > > Harald > > > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 > > Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 > > PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au > > Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia > > url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm > > _________________________________________________________________________ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > > message. > > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Subject: Re: aus-wx: Today's Thoughts For VIC To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 17:31:35 +1100 (EDT) From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL3] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Macca stated: > And as we speak a CB has just popped up near Mansfield. Its clearly > visibile from Melbourne. More large TCu going up further NE too up over the > Alpine National Park no doubt. We could potentially get some distant > lightning if these storms can maintain themselves. VIS tells me that the combination of decent low-level moisture and breakable cap starts NE of Mansfield. As you go W/SW/S/SE from there the cool moist maritime dead PBL underneath some killer cap evident in the 23Z MML sounding takes over. Harald -- _________________________________________________________________________ Harald Richter ph: +61 3 9669 4501 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre fax: +61 3 9669 4660 PO Box 1289K email: h.richter at bom.gov.au Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia url: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/wfstaff/hrichter.htm _________________________________________________________________________ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Keith Barnett" To: "Weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Rain on the way? Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 17:55:36 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Has anyone noticed the cloud mass that developed and expanded south of Lord Howe Island today and which appears to be slowly getting closer to the south coast/Sydney? Any ideas as to what's causing/maintaining it?
X-Originating-IP: [64.49.223.245] From: "michael king" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Murwillumbah Tornado late 1998 or 1997 Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 18:17:12 +1100 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 31 Jan 2002 07:17:12.0529 (UTC) FILETIME=[4D974410:01C1AA27] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Talking to a Band B owner up in Yungarburra and he mentioned a cyclone, later revealed through discussion, to be a tornado, that he experienced in Murwillumbah in late 1997 or 1998.  Anyone know about this event?


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From: "Jane ONeill" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain on the way? Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 18:14:58 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Keith & all, This is moist convergence to the south of the Coral Sea low. The disturbance originated several days ago north of New Zealand. It's been retrograding southwest for the past couple of days & edging towards the coast. Will make the NE NSW coast an interesting place to be over the next couple of days....... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett Sent: Thursday, 31 January 2002 5:56 To: Weather list Subject: aus-wx: Rain on the way? Has anyone noticed the cloud mass that developed and expanded south of Lord Howe Island today and which appears to be slowly getting closer to the south coast/Sydney? Any ideas as to what's causing/maintaining it? +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:15:09 +0800 From: "Phil Smith" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: We are all iving in the wrong spot!!! X-Mailer: WorldClient 5.0.4 X-MDRemoteIP: 127.0.0.1 X-Return-Path: SmithP at ics.edu.hk X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Too much jungle and not enough roads in Central Africa. Phil <>< International Christian School E-mail: SmithP at ics.edu.hk Doctor Disk Limited E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Web-site: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Weather: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm -----Original Message----- From: Phil Bagust To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 15:09:54 +0930 Subject: Re: aus-wx: We are all iving in the wrong spot!!! > Hi all > > I came across this interesting link: > > http://www1.msfc.nasa.gov/newsroom/NSSTC/news/releases/2002/N02-001.htm > l > > It appears that central Africa is the place to be, storm lovers! > > [I wouln't know - can't remember what one looks like ;)] > > Phil in warm, sunny, Adelaide > > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- > + > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail > to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of > your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------- > - > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Mark Hardy" To: , Subject: aus-wx: Vis satpics Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 16:44:05 +1100 Organization: The Weather Company X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all, We have updated Weatherzone to include national and state visible satellite images. These are available as a link of each satellite IR sector. Cheers, Mark Hardy The Weather Company Pty. Ltd. http://www.weatherzone.com.au Attachment Converted: "c:\program files\eudora\attach\mhardy at theweather.com.au.vcf" From: "Keith Barnett" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain on the way? Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 19:16:41 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
So it must have something to do with this:
 
 
This stationary front or trough has been there for several days.I knew about the Coral Sea low (that was quite happy with its position in life and didn't want promotion, if you know what I mean), but wondered whether something else was triggering the cloud development..it was relatively cloud free in that vicinity until today. So I hope we get it...
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 31, 2002 6:14 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Rain on the way?

Keith & all,

This is moist convergence to the south of the Coral Sea low.  The
disturbance originated several days ago north of New Zealand. It's been
retrograding southwest for the past couple of days & edging towards the
coast. Will make the NE NSW coast an interesting place to be over the next
couple of days.......

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Keith Barnett
Sent: Thursday, 31 January 2002 5:56
To: Weather list
Subject: aus-wx: Rain on the way?


Has anyone noticed the cloud mass that developed and expanded south of Lord
Howe Island today and which appears to be slowly getting closer to the south
coast/Sydney? Any ideas as to what's causing/maintaining it?

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon) Date: 31 Jan 02 21:13:38 +1000 Subject: Re: aus-wx: A sighting of the cloud - on film Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway To: aussie-weather at world.std.com X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hello Jimmy! 31 Jan 02 06:27, you wrote to All: JD> Forget about that. I would say that it is a "particularly dangerous JD> situation. Take cover immediately". That supercell could become JD> tornadic. LOL (Just had a look at the URL) :) Tony, VK3JED .. at C:\BWAVE\TAGLINES.BW -- |Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18 |Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au | | Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------