http://australiasevereweather.com/


Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 10:23:38 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On
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<x-flowed>
I agree with Jimmy .... just have a feeling that the wetaher might not 
bee that boring soon.... it's happened like this before.
Don W

Jimmy Deguara wrote:

> Andrew and Lindsay,
> 
> Don't despair as the probability is that when it does come it will come 
> in full force. I am actually quite excited that it is lagging as you may 
> find that July may hit us hard. Well we shall see. And of course if I am 
> proven wrong, then October late season is something to look forward to. 
> Weather has its way of balancing itself but we find it when don't know 
> which way.
> 
> Don't get me wrong. I am also disappointed with lack of action too but I 
> suppose over the years I have learned to pass the time so to speak. I 
> also advise not to look too far into models or at least get overexcited 
> over them when they look fantastic. This is why I like AVN as it only 
> goes 3 days out.
> 
> Anyway enough from me.
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 11:27 AM 29/06/01 +1000, you wrote:
> 
>> Hi all,
>> 
>> Just thought I'd take the opportunity to express my disappointment that
>> we are a third of the way through winter and so far the SE has had no
>> more than a third of a cold-snap!
>> 
>> Despite our speculations from a few weeks ago, the sub-tropical ridge
>> has gone back to being all over the place without us having had the
>> penetrating low (with a 'W'?) we'd hoped for.
>> 
>> As Lindsay P. has mentioned, the daytime temperatures are unseasonably
>> warm up here on the tablelands which is disappointing for people like us
>> who enjoy the hardness of (normal) winters here.
>> 
>> Andrew.
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>>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 10:28:42 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Warm June
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<x-flowed>
sydney's ave max in June reached 20 degrees for only the 2nd time in 142 
years ! Only 1957, with 20.3 degree av max beat it.
What about Perth and Brisabane - pretty close to records I would assume 
but for the locals it will be cold and miserable in Briasbane later tonight.
Don W

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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 11:04:04 +1000
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at kooee.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: new email / test
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Hi everyone.
I have moved to Newcastle and have a new email addy.
tornado at bigpond.net.au
This is a test email to see if it subscribing to aus-wx has worked.
Some very nice congestus showers just off the coast here, nice hard
updraughts, glad the high that has dominated is breaking down a little!

Matthew Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at rubix.net.au>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Subject: Supercells, RFDs, overshooting tops, etc.
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 08:48:05 +1000
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Morning  all,

Leslie Lemon has reappeared on the USA wx-chase list & I thought a
number of you might be interested in the discussion that follows......it
is long.  I've included a couple of papers relevant to this discussion
at the bottom for further reading if anyone is interested.

..........................................................
All:
Here is installment 1.

I have been off this list for years but just recently returned.  I did
so when the discussion has centered on concepts near and dear to my
heart and mind.  As some of you may know I have written within the
formal (and more-so) informal literature about these concepts for many
years and have also written other comments outside the published
literature.  Here, allow me to ramble some concerning supercells, their
structure, mesocyclones and their structure (NOT a rotating updraft),
the RFD, overshoots, etc.  This is a very looooong post and you may not
want to read it!  I very well understand!  LOL  These are just one man's
opinions and concepts.  There have also been excellent comments by Sam
Barricklow, Lon Curtis, and others. I don't mean to diminish any of the
previously posted comments by these and others here.

The overshooting dome is the upper reaches of the updraft (and one
branch of the mesocyclone) where it has risen beyond the equilibrium
level (where updraft temperature and environmental temperature are
identical).  As the updraft continues to rise due to existing upward
momentum it cools adiabatically.  Thus, when seen on satellite these
overshooting tops are often much colder than the environment.  There
will be a point when the upward momentum (kinetic energy acquired from
realized CAPE) has been completely depleted.  At that point parcels are
forced outward by rising parcels from beneath and sink as they diverge.
With decreasing updraft strength the degree of overshoot declines.
Also, if the updraft width diminishes it mixes more with environmental
air and CAPE is lost, being replaced by evaporativly cooled air from the
environment.  This will also lead directly to a decline in updraft
strength.  In the fine comments by Sam Barricklow he explained how
mesocyclone occlusion leads to updraft decline.
Lemon and Doswell, 1979 (L&D '79) discussed this.  (If a mesocyclone
were a 'rotating updraft' then the "vortex valve" concept I wrote about
in the mid '70s would be important to updraft demise as the updraft spin
increased). Note also that with amplification of low level rotation
"vortex breakdown" also occurs.  This is the production of a central
downdraft along or near the axis of rotation and is often called an
"occlusion" downdraft.  This should not be mistaken for the RFD.  They
differ but can blend together.

Here is my second installment.

On the subject of "What is a supercell?"  (If this is too old and beyond
the list, please excuse it and simply delete).  It might be helpful to
step back a moment and look at where we have come from.

I wrote two tech memo years ago ('78 and 80') in order to give radar
operators/forecasters the reflectivity (Z) characteristics of a
distinctly different class of storms that when found within a moderate
to strongly sheared environment, were typically indicative of severe
storms.  L&D '79 added even more to the 'typical' life cycle of these
storms and the repeatable pattern of sever phenomena.  The purpose was
clear.  When storms exhibit these features (symptoms) then the
forecaster could and can anticipate to an extent, the life cycle,
severity, locations of severe phenomena, and how to warn on these
(ailments) storms.  I used the commonly accepted classification of the
time, which was based on Browning's (and many others) three-dimensional
Z structure.  These structural characteristics were shown by Browning to
transcend international and geopolitical boundaries of all kinds within
the mid-latitudes of the globe.  Further, they were shown (within
certain variability's) to be independent of the weather radar employed
and to essentially be indicative of a storm with a persistent and
abnormally intense updraft.  Browning noted and emphasized
this 'trinity' of three closely related radar characteristics.  They
were the "sloping echo overhang" beneath which was found the (later
named) Weak Echo Region (WER), the "vault" (later named) the Bounded
Weak Echo Region (BWER), and the "wall"/hook echo.  (Within the two tech
memos I also emphasized the position of the echo top and not its height
as well as certain Z values as distinguishing characteristics.) Browning
named this storm class "Severe Right" or severe and (to a greater
extent) right moving.  (A bit of trivia for those who are curious about
the first use of the term "supercell".  The study was published in 1962
in the "Meteorological Magazine", titled "Cellular Structure of
Convective Storms". On page 349 of that article was the first time the
term "supercell" was used).

Even with the advent of the Doppler weather radar these Z features are
still commonly used as severe thunderstorm warning criteria.   These Z
features are still used because very often they precede the development
of the first radar detectable mid-level mesocyclone.  As some of you
know, it was for this reason that I resisted the supercell
classification scheme that replaced these radar Z characteristics with
the mesocyclone as the distinguishing feature of the supercell.  Perhaps
this is best, however, because as stated in the tech memos, the WER is
often found with severe multicellular storms as well but is more
temporal and episodic (as is the severe weather produced) with these
storms.  Also included was the fact that the storm flank where these
features are found is variable but independent of storm classification.
This was especially illustrated in the appendices of the tech memos.
Interestingly and as anticipated these same features are used in the
southern hemisphere but simply "flipped over".  Those storms are also
typically *left* deviating severe storms.   See:

http://www.weathersa.co.za/wfr/fcastaids/radar/lemon.htm

Forecasters, I believe, are still taught to watch for this storm type
and Z structure for some of the above reasons but also because these
storms can produce giant hail (> 2 inches), especially violent surface
winds, and tornadoes in a disproportionate manner.  Obviously they are
now taught the even greater variability in tornadic storms and in
mesocyclonic storms. Velocity data interpretation is emphasized, as are
mesocyclone, tornadocyclone, and TVS identification.  But obviously
there are also a whole host of other meteorological features and
characteristics identified using velocity data.

All this is given to help illustrate what is taught and why as well as
the other distinguishing features of most supercells.  But I do not
dispute the dynamics of these storms and the dynamic differences as
emphasized by Chuck Doswell and others.

Part 3

All:

Relative to the RFD, I very much believe that we are talking about deep
decent on the backside of, at least in some, if not most, supercells.
For starters, L&D, '79 hypothesized a deep RFD origin for several
reasons.  In fact, I recall when I gave the shortened version in '78 (I
believe) at an SLS or radar conference, several folks responded
favorably.  One of those alluded to the WV dark-spot appearing right up
to the backside of some supercell CBs.

What is the mesocyclone?  Is it a "rotating updraft"?  Lon Curtis made
reference to a little of this and it may have been discussed extensively
here prior to my renewed subscription.  But I contend that the
mesocyclone is an analog to the extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) on the
polar front having three distinct branches.  That is one branch is the
updraft rising from air obtained from the warm sector and another branch
of mid- to upper-level potentially cold air descending in a rainy
downdraft.  And the third branch, descending in the "clear slot" is
extremely important.  Much of this concept is contained in my paper "On
the mesocyclone 'dry intrusion' and tornadogenesis" from the 19th SLS
conference in Minneapolis (1998).  This is the paper where I point out
that if you chose to look at the mesocyclone through the ETC "conveyer
belt" analog, it all fits together very nicely. Too nicely?  Only time
will tell.  The RFD has the same form and affect that the 'dry
intrusion' on the synoptic scale does.  That is, on the synoptic scale,
as the dry intrusion (often seen as a WV dark-spot) descends and begins
to wrap around the 'cloud head' (comma head as seen on in satellite
photos) and overtakes the baroclinc zone, rapid deepening and
cyclogenesis occurs.  The cloud head itself is made up of parcels from
all three airstreams just as the supercell CB is.  Obviously, the
disclaimer about the differences of non-hydrostatics, the
three-dimensionality, etc., of the mesocyclone still applies.  In L&D we
pointed out the radar reflectivity "weak echo hole" at 9 km altitude in
one tornadic storm where it appears that the RFD scavenged and
evaporated precip during its decent from above and just to the rear of
the hook echo.  Since that time I have seen several similar reflectivity
signatures.  Further I advocate that the mesocyclone is not, in most
cases, a rotating updraft.  Rather it is composed or a cyclonically
twisting updraft (UD) and a cyclonically twisting downdraft (DD).  At
least in some storms I have what I believe is incontrovertible evidence
for this when we combine reflectivity, velocity, and spectrum width
data.  The Lahoma, OK storm of 1994 was one of these.  In fact, I can
demonstrate from these data that the RFD extends almost vertically
downward from about 50,000 ft or ~ 13 km!!  In at least some supercells
(I believe HPs and Classics, especially) that is the case.  This places
the RFD outside the CB cloud and all along the rear flank.  The rainy
downdraft occurs within much of the precipitation cascade.  I discussed
this idea to a fare extent with Bob Maddox and Keith Browning during the
period of developing the conveyer belt analog and concept.  We very much
need storm photography, videos, and new data sets such as soundings,
aircraft, or some other data sources from the west of supercells hat
would tend to better delineate occurrences there.  (I recognize the
problems with soundings being suppressed and forced out of the RFD.)

In the above 'dry intrusion' paper I suggest that the high PV or the RFD
might originate from the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere just as
with the ETC.  I also discussed the idea that the evaporative cooling
during decent within the RFD created high PV owing to thermal
stratification.  But the turbulence within the RFD would tend to disrupt
this mechanism.  Then there was even the possibility of high SRH
entering the RFD from aloft.  But all this must be considered within the
context of a region of decent where the air possessing four degrees of
freedom in its motion, passes through, downward, and out of the RFD all
along its vertical extent.

Then there is the relatively high CAPE in the tornadic RFDs that we must
account for.  Much has been made about the thermal characteristics of
the RFD and correctly so after Paul Markowski's dissertation and ongoing
work. However, that is just one of the characteristics (as above) and
may be only one of two or three that contribute to tornadogenesis.  I
feel that the origin of the RFD (which may well vary with the storm and
the environment) may be extremely important.  Perhaps, due to storm
relative inflow into the RFD or for other, as yet unknown reasons, it
may be associated with high PV in some cases and in others it may not
be.

Thus, I don't feel we should over emphasize thermal RFD characteristics
alone but should also study the origin of the RFD (level, sounding
characteristics, etc.) and its other characteristics as well.
Obviously, thermal characteristics are just one more clue to the RFD
puzzle.

Up to this point I have said nothing about the important supercell
collapse stage accompanied by diminishing hail, echo top subsidence,
BWER and WER disappearance, weakening radar reflectivities, and
mesocyclone occlusion. This, of course, is when microburst and downburst
frequency increases, and tornadogenesis takes place.  I have alluded to
it above but I will not add
to this already extremely long multipart post.  I have said much about
this in several publications such as L&D '79.

For those of you who have read all three parts (and are still awake!) I
have one thing to say.   Get A Life!!!  LOL  Now I will go back into
hibernation.


Leslie R. Lemon
Basic Commerce and Industries, Inc.
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel: 816-373-3533, Cell: 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com

...............................................................

See also:
Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to
Tornadogenesis
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/107lemon1.htm

On the Mesocyclone "Dry Intrusion" and Tornadogenesis
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/lemon7.htm

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 12:10:59 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow page up finally
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all

Trying to plug the SDS gap a little.  Finally got up some info re the July
1969 cold outbreak in the Mid north of SA.  The 'Advertiser' survivied
because I was the week of the first Moon landing and my parents kept the
papers!

As usual, any stories or memories....

http://www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2/SnowWX.html

Phil



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 16:23:11 +1000
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Hi Don, Jimmy and all,

Blackheath: 9.5C max today, that makes two single figure days in a row for
my place, great. 9.5mm for June. See my page for full details of  June's
weather.

Hmmm, I didn't even get Jimmy's email, thank goodness Don had it at the
bottom of his email. It's not a problem with world.std, its some problems my
isp's end. :(

Yes, good points there Jimmy. I'm still very much a learner and it is true
that the models certainly have their limitations. I get mildly excited when
say, 2 or 3 models agree 4 days out but more so when there is similarities
among them, say, 72 hours out. Sometimes with the onset of the net etc, I
think we can rely too much on models. Nature has its way of dealing with
that, as you perhaps implied, Jimmy. Perhaps it will all tip the other way
soon. It usually does. I have this feeling too that maybe later in July and
into August, we could see some action here, and to the west.

Lindsay

From: "Don White" <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 10:23 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Winter (?) Rolls On


> I agree with Jimmy .... just have a feeling that the wetaher might not
> bee that boring soon.... it's happened like this before.
> Don W
>
> Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> > Andrew and Lindsay,
> >
> > Don't despair as the probability is that when it does come it will come
> > in full force. I am actually quite excited that it is lagging as you may
> > find that July may hit us hard. Well we shall see. And of course if I am
> > proven wrong, then October late season is something to look forward to.
> > Weather has its way of balancing itself but we find it when don't know
> > which way.
> >
> > Don't get me wrong. I am also disappointed with lack of action too but I
> > suppose over the years I have learned to pass the time so to speak. I
> > also advise not to look too far into models or at least get overexcited
> > over them when they look fantastic. This is why I like AVN as it only
> > goes 3 days out.
> >
> > Anyway enough from me.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > At 11:27 AM 29/06/01 +1000, you wrote:
> >


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p325-apx1.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.141.71] claimed to be ihug.com.au
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 18:09:43 +1000
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
good.

http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.35.254.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: USA report: addition
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 18:34:36 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 Jul 2001 08:34:37.0541 (UTC) FILETIME=[A9D55950:01C10208]
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<x-flowed>
Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.

Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near 
Amarillo>>

http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html   [my report]

At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we 
eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>

http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg

Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just what 
was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!!  >>

http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html

regards,   David


_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Awesome 1km res sat pic !!!
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 19:15:41 +1000
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Hi all

Check out this awesome 1km res satellite picture of SW WA taken around 4pm
this afternoon

http://www.bsch.au.com/temp/010701_swwa.jpg

It's big - around 600k - but it's worth the wait!

It was downloaded from the NOAA Satellite Active Archive
(http://www.saa.noaa.gov).  If anyone else wants to download these
themselves sing out and i'll send you some info.  The files are quite large
(normally between 50 and 100mb) so you probably need cable


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 20:13:06 +1000
From: Matthew Smith <tornado at kooee.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: lightning
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few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...

Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !

Anyway back to the state of origin.

Matt Smith

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 21:11:29 +1000
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I don't understand. What is dbZ's?
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter Creswick" <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 6:09 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Radar


> South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
> good.
>
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
> http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 21:20:33 +1000
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Sorry to joke about it Matt but that's a great line. I cant help myself  :)

> Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
 http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Matthew Smith" <tornado at kooee.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 8:13 PM
Subject: aus-wx: lightning


> few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...
>
> Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
>
> Anyway back to the state of origin.
>
> Matt Smith
>
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:23:06 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: USA report: addition
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<x-flowed>
Hi David and all,

Those pics of the LP structure were awesome. Now the decision was a 
difficult one so which one do you choose? What if the storm we chased 
didn't produce.........

Well our plan if this was the case was to chase the LP. I guess you can 
then watch what others have chased I suppose and they are excellent pics.

Jimmy Deguara

At 06:34 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.
>
>Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near 
>Amarillo>>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html   [my report]
>
>At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we 
>eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg
>
>Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just 
>what was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!!  >>
>
>http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html
>
>regards,   David
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:25:43 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: USA report: addition
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi me again,

It seems that storm began as an LP and then followed a trend into a HP in 
those pics.

At 06:34 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Not mine nor Jimmy's!!.
>
>Dave Lewison chased the same day that we scored the large wedge see near 
>Amarillo>>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/Docs/290501.html   [my report]
>
>At one stage Jimmy and I were arguing on which storm to chase; the one we 
>eventually did and the one I originally wanted to >>
>
>http://www.wxchase.com/chasepics/2001/290502.jpg
>
>Well if anyone is interested, take a look at Dave L's pics to see just 
>what was happening under that updraft tower. WOW!!!  >>
>
>http://www.nyshrm.org/dave/chase2001/may29.html
>
>regards,   David
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Sun, 1 Jul 2001 22:46:53 +1000 (AEST)
From: Jonty Hall <jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Warm June
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Don,

Cold and miserable it may be, but we aren't really noticing it up here,
you know with all the jumping up and down celebrating keeping us warm....
:-))))))))

Who needs a supercell when you've got an ALF????

Queensland, you bloody beauty! (Enough football, back to the wx...)

Cheers,

Jonty.


On Sun, 1 Jul 2001, Don White wrote:

> sydney's ave max in June reached 20 degrees for only the 2nd time in 142 
> years ! Only 1957, with 20.3 degree av max beat it.
> What about Perth and Brisabane - pretty close to records I would assume 
> but for the locals it will be cold and miserable in Briasbane later tonight.
> Don W
> 
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Date: Sun, 01 Jul 2001 22:55:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne trip
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi particularly those in Victoria,

I will be travelling to Melbourne during the NSW school holidays in July 
only for a few days as a gesture to take relatives there. I am not sure of 
the dates as yet but I think it will be at the end of the first week and 
over the weekend.

I suppose it would be great to catch up with some of the Victorians. I 
suppose I will leave it at that.

Jimmy Deguara

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 00:30:16 +1000
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<x-flowed>

>
> > Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !

perhaps that what the blues needed tonight. What a disgrace.

Anyway, just awoken by some quite bright flashes of lightning off the 
northern beaches of Sydney. Now 12:30 am with thunder.
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From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Possible cold air later this week.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 08:12:04 +1000
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Hi all,

It is looking interesting for later in the week. From a model point of view
NoGaps, GASP, Unisys AVN, and even MRF are showing sub 540 air by Friday
00z. It's interesting to note that at this stage, the timing of it in these
models is quite similar.

Lets wait and see but at least it is something to keep an eye on. I hope I
haven't repeated anything from other posts here, I don't think i have been
receiving all my mail.


Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
 http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm

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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 09:13:48 +1000
From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com, Bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Radar
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Radar, and radar reflectivity etc, is a subject all on it's own. 
Start with the tutorial at:
http://www.skywarn.ampr.org/chapter1.htm

PC

Bussie wrote:
> 
> I don't understand. What is dbZ's?
> Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Peter Creswick" <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
> To: "aussie-weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Sunday, July 01, 2001 6:09 PM
> Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> 
> > South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
> > good.
> >
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/IR.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/ECAPE.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/EL.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PE.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/BL.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/mrl5.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/PB.html
> > http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/general_radar.htm
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> >
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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 09:56:47 +1000 
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Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis forecasted
in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are all
heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).

BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine should
bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=deciles
&period=month&area=aus
Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on record.
Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things? Rainfall
for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
having an impact.

The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was exceptionally
warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures), with
the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to winter but
not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum temperature
+1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the mean
minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack"). 

Cheers,

David.
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: radar?
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 12:14:57 +1000 
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>From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
>Subject: aus-wx: Radar
>
>South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
>good.

err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier. 

Cheers,

David
(BTW all my own thoughts!)                                             
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 10:15:39 +0800
From: "Phil Smith" <SmithP at ics.edu.hk>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
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Well, David, you Aussies got it dry because we copped the lot right here. 
The HKO staff are apparently having a long weekend because the final 
record for June will not be available until after the 4th July but here 
is an excerpt from the HKO June Summary up to 28th June:
========================
 The weather of June 2001 was marked by persistent heavy rain and squally 
thunderstorms under the repeated influence of active troughs of low 
pressure near the south China coast. The monthly rainfall up to 28 June 
amounted to 1050.4 millimetres, about three times the monthly normal 
figure of 376.0 millimetres. This is a new record for June, previous 
record being 962.9 millimetres in June 1966.
=========================
As we have had Typhoon Durian with all of its rainbands since then, I 
expect the final total for the month will be well over 1.1 metres.
Still the rainbands of Durian are crossing us every few hours even though 
its centre is now nearly 500 Km away in inland GuangXi Province and it is 
supposed to be dissipating.
Now we have Tropical Storm Utor spinning up in the Philippine Sea which 
will probably help ensure a damp July as well.
So if any of you Aussies want to experience a bit more moisture than you 
have down there right now, just slip into your nearest travel agent and 
book a trip to dank, damp, dripping, dreary, drizzly Hong Kong!

Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk 
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672



-----Original Message-----
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 09:56:47 +1000
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.

> Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
> lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis
> forecasted
> in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
> scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
> above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are
> all
> heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).
> 
> BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine
> should
> bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
> http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=de
> ciles
> &period=month&area=aus
> Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on
> record.
> Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things?
> Rainfall
> for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
> having an impact.
> 
> The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was
> exceptionally
> warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures),
> with
> the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
> More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to
> winter but
> not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum
> temperature
> +1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the
> mean
> minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack"). 
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> David.
>                                                               
> Dr David Jones                                               
>                                                             
> Climate Analysis Section                                   
> National Climate Centre                                    
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               
> 
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
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No argument with the geographic or demographic factors as such, but
they are not relevant either.  The comment concerned the output from
existing radar.  It's a question of excessively "dumbing down" the
information available from the radar that cost a heap of our hard
earned tax dollars.  Rain rate displays are OK as far as they go, but
they are the result of heavily filtered and processed data, you could
say, excessively so.  As David would well know, rain rate alone is not
the issue.  Not all storms precipitate, and besides, storm structure,
winds etc are as big, if not a bigger issue, than rain anyway.  Anyone
who knows how radar works can glean a lot from the raw dbZ output.

PC  


David Jones wrote:
> 
> >From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
> >Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> >
> >South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
> >good.
> 
> err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
> locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
> etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
> the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> David
> (BTW all my own thoughts!)
> 
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
> 
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From: "Laurier Williams" <lwilliams at williams.edu.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold, wet outbreak for Thurs/Fri?
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 13:06:00 +1000
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The EC now agrees with GASP and MRF in predicting a moderately cold outbreak
over Vic and NSW for late Thursday or Friday. The circumstances, however,
are unusual, and there's a chance of snow along the eastern parts of the
Great Divide in NSW, and possibly widespread in Victoria.

All three models are consistent in predicting a low to form south of New
Caledonia and east of Brisbane during Wednesday, then to move steadily SW to
eastern Bass Strait by late Friday before shifting away to the E or SE.
Meantime, a high in the Bight ridging SE will drag colder air up from around
50S over the southeast. Differences in treatment start to appear here.

EC has a substantial cold pool with central thickness of 534 over about
Young at 12z Thursday, then washes out to a broad upper trough lying from
Adelaide to Brisbane around 542 by 12z Friday. EC drops the surface low to
~~990hPa just east of Gabo Island 12z Friday, then moves it slowly east and
deepening on Sat keeping winds mostly SW over Vic and NSW.

GASP develops 2 low centres by Thursday night, one south of Lord Howe
Island, and another south of Adelaide, which have merged into a 994 low in
eastern Bass Strait by Friday night. Consequently, the colder air tracks
farther west and north, with a central thickness of 532 over Adelaide on
Thursday night and 531 over the western Northern Tablelands of NSW by Friday
night. Winds over Vic and NSW are mostly westerly, but GASP has 10 to 40mm
of precip over eastern Vic and the NSW Southern Tablelands for the 48 hours
to Sat night, and 5 to 15 up into the Central Tablelands. Snow hounds will
be cheering on the local model!

MRF keeps the low farther east and shallower, but still has Victoria and
much of southern and central NSW sub-540 thickness by Friday morning. Precip
totals are pretty light, however, in a SW flow. NOGAPS is similar, but
doesn't develop a low centre; rather has a deep trough extending down the
NSW coast at this time, and, like MRF, little precip.

Significantly, none of the models has any SW or S jet development during the
period, so it won't be a true polar outbreak as air will mostly be arriving
from around 50S. However, the potential for interaction between the ECL and
colder air at last gives us something interesting to watch.

Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News
http://www.australianweathernews.com



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Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 13:39:22 +1000 (EST)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Uhh, interesting and potentially volatile discussion
developing here.  Let me throw in some info that connects the 
BOM rain rate (RR) to the reflectivity (dBZ). I did these calculations as I have
had difficulties in interpreting the rain rates, similar to Peter.

RR:   <0.3   0.3-2      2-10       10-20      20-40      40-100     >100
dBZ:  <14.6  14.6-27.8  27.8-39.0  39.0-43.8  43.8-48.6  48.6-55.0  >55.0
      black  dkblue     lgtblue    yellow     green      pink       red

This table assumes the underlying relationship

   Z = 200*RR^1.6

where Z is the radar reflectivity factor, a function of the reflector
particle diameter (to the _sixth_ power) and the particle density
integrated over a radar sampling volume.
The more common "reflectivity" is the scaled reflectivity factor

   dBZ = 10 * log(Z)

(log to the base of 10).  

It's interesting to note that the common BOM radar display shows
no returns below 14.6 dBZ precluding the detection of clear air boundaries
(important for convective initiation) and (I am guessing) some light rain areas.
   

> No argument with the geographic or demographic factors as such, but
> they are not relevant either.  The comment concerned the output from
> existing radar.  It's a question of excessively "dumbing down" the
> information available from the radar that cost a heap of our hard
> earned tax dollars.  
> Rain rate displays are OK as far as they go, but
> they are the result of heavily filtered and processed data, you could
> say, excessively so.  

Might be an issue of what is most suitable for "the public" [sic]. Reflectivities
are "truer" information,  while "rain rates" are more commonly understood.
I am not sure how exactly the raw power returns are processed before they
end up as rain rates on the web.  But the conversion from dBZ to RR seems
to be a simple step by itself.

> As David would well know, rain rate alone is not
> the issue.  Not all storms precipitate, and besides, storm structure,
> winds etc are as big, if not a bigger issue, than rain anyway.  Anyone
> who knows how radar works can glean a lot from the raw dbZ output.

Radars need reflectors to see - storm structures and winds are invisible 
to a radar without dielectric hydrometeors (unfortunately!).
Storm structure is best observed with a camcorder from under the updraught base :)

> David Jones wrote:
> > 
> > >From: Peter Creswick <ventus45 at ihug.com.au>
> > >Subject: aus-wx: Radar
> > >
> > >South Africa has nice radar, real dbZ's and all.  Pitty ours isn't as
> > >good.
> > 
> > err? In what way are these better than the excellent products avaliable
> > locally from the BOM network (eg www.bom.gov.au , www.weatherzone.com.au
> > etc.? ) Besides, when your country is about the size of Victoria, and double
> > the population of Australia monitoring is just a tad easier.

It's the old song. The preferred 10 cm Doppler radar coverage of all of Australia
is too expensive to be reality given far less than 20 million tax payers and 
given that radar acquisition is not the nation's top priority in Canberra (or Melbourne).
Instead we have (primarily) a coastal fringe of 5 cm coverage.  That's not too bad,
given the circumstances.


--------------------------------
Harald Richter
BMRC
PO Box 1289K
Melbourne VIC 3001
Australia
ph:     +61 3 9669 4501
fax:    +61 3 9669 4660
email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
url:    soon(ish)
--------------------------------
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From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: tstorm forecast
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:26:10 +1000
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<x-flowed>
       Very nice to see thunderstorms forecast for SE NSW for Friday already 
and it's only Monday. I have never seen storms forecast 3 or 4 days out in 
July for any region in NSW, must be a vigorous system.
  Plus seeing the isolated tstorms developing just off the Sydney coast from 
Manly today was a sight for sore eyes.
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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From: "Laurier Williams" <wbc at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie-Weather at World. Std. Com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Reduction in GMS satpix from 4 July
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 16:24:04 +1000
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Some bad news for southern ocean watchers -- especially those looking for
cold outbreaks surging up from the south. From this Wednesday, GMS-5 will be
reducing its imagery availability to cover only as far south as 49 degrees S
(~700km south of Hobart), while the number of transmissions daily will be
nearly halved, from 28 to 16 per day. This situation is because GMS-5 is now
operating beyond its design life, with its expected replacement (MTSAT-1)
lost in a launch failure late in 1999. The replacement, MTSAT-1R, is
expected early in 2003. Reducing the number and extent of scans is a
precaution to extend GMS-5's usable life.

The main impact will be loss of Southern Ocean satellite data south of
Australia. The IndoEx satellite (when working) covers westwards from the
longitude of the WA/SA border, and GOES West covers from the western Tasman
eastwards. The polar-orbiting satellite data from the CSIRO
(http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/weather/) and DOLA
(http://www.rss.dola.wa.gov.au/newsite/noaaql/NOAAql.html) will probably be
the best substitute -- anyone know of better?

Laurier

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From: NinnesM at franklins.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: tstorm forecast
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 16:47:30 +1000 
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Sure was a pretty good day Rune...I've been watching little pulses going up
and down around Sydney all day.

Fingers crossed for later in the week eh?

Mal Ninnes

> ----------
> From: 	Rune Peitersen[SMTP:runepeitersen at hotmail.com]
> Sent: 	Monday, 2 July 2001 16:26
> To: 	aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: 	aus-wx: tstorm forecast
> 
>        Very nice to see thunderstorms forecast for SE NSW for Friday
> already 
> and it's only Monday. I have never seen storms forecast 3 or 4 days out in
> 
> July for any region in NSW, must be a vigorous system.
>   Plus seeing the isolated tstorms developing just off the Sydney coast
> from 
> Manly today was a sight for sore eyes.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:46:44 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: lightning
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<x-flowed>
Hi Matt,

I suppose I saw the build up during the afternoon and also saw the 
"stratocumulus" castellanus in the morning. There definitely was colder air 
coming through evident from the altostratus patches and some virga..

I was expecting lightning and Geoff confirmed it.

Jimmy Deguara

At 08:13 PM 1/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>few flashes of lightning just off the coast of Newcastle this evening...
>
>Its been a while... love walking out and seeing an unexpected flash !
>
>Anyway back to the state of origin.
>
>Matt Smith
>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:56:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: radar?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
At 01:39 PM 2/07/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Storm structure is best observed with a camcorder from under the updraught 
>base :)


I like that Harold. You have the Storm Chaser instinct in you or you have 
developed it by talking to too many chasers in the US and here...:)

Great stuff...

Jimmy Deguara


-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 16:51:34 +0930
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From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Reduction in GMS satpix from 4 July
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<x-flowed>
At 04:24 PM 2/07/2001 +1000, Laurier Williams wrote:
>Some bad news for southern ocean watchers -- especially those looking for
>cold outbreaks surging up from the south. From this Wednesday, GMS-5 will be
>reducing its imagery availability to cover only as far south as 49 degrees S
>(~700km south of Hobart), while the number of transmissions daily will be
>nearly halved, from 28 to 16 per day. This situation is because GMS-5 is now
>operating beyond its design life, with its expected replacement (MTSAT-1)
>lost in a launch failure late in 1999. The replacement, MTSAT-1R, is
>expected early in 2003. Reducing the number and extent of scans is a
>precaution to extend GMS-5's usable life.

For those interested, here is some background that has been circulated 
internally within the BOM. It fleshes out Laurier's email just a tad. It 
sounds frightening.

Background

2.      Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) program is a key
part of the Global Observing System of the World Meteorological
Organization.  For over two decades  GMS cloud images have been of vital
importance to the operations of national meteorological services
especially in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Bureau.  The
current satellite in the series, GMS-5, was due to be replaced by the
Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) in late 1999 but
unfortunately MTSAT was lost due to a launch vehicle failure.  Since
that time the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has been taking steps to
ensure GMS-5 observations continue up to the launch of  MTSAT-1R in
early 2003.

3.      However GMS-5 is now well beyond its design life.  While most
subsystems are in excellent condition such as the Data Collection
Platform facility which relays signals from
Automatic Weather Stations in the Asia-Pacific region, JMA has now
advised that difficulties are continuing with lubrication buildup in the
southernmost portion of GMS-5's scanning mirror mechanism which is used
to generate full disk cloud images of the earth.

Changes in imagery transmissions

4.      In an attempt to extend GMS-5 operations, JMA will therefore reduce
the extent of the mirror's north/south scan so that each image will only
extend as far south as latitude 49 degrees south.  As a further
preservation strategy the number of GMS-5 images per day over the
southern hemisphere will be reduced from 28 to 16 representing a drop
from current hourly imagery to around 2-hourly.  The observations
(images) which will be available from GMS-5 are as follows:

· full disk images: 16 times per day at 0000, 0300, 0500, 0530, 0600,
0900, 1100, 1130, 1200, 1500, 1700, 1730, 1800, 2100, 2300, 2330 UTC.
The southern end of every image will be 49 degrees south latitude;

· northern hemisphere images: 12 times per day at 0100, 0200, 0400,
0700, 0800, 1000, 1300, 1400, 1600, 1900, 2000, 2200 UTC.

Hence the southern hemisphere imagery effectively comprises 3-hourly
imagery plus an additional 8 images clustered around the four times per
day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) when atmospheric winds are derived by tracking
cloud features on sets of three successive images.

5.      These changes are scheduled to occur at 0100 UTC (e.g. 1100 EST) on
Wednesday 4 July 2001.

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</x-flowed>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Mega-size Tropical Storm (N.Hemisphere)
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 17:50:27 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4616.200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all TC watchers (Aussie and world 
wide)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Have you ever seen a circulation as big at Tropical 
Storm Utor before. Its cloud structure is bigger than the entire state of QLD 
and Northern Territory combined&nbsp;! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Seemed to develop from what,&nbsp;in Australia we 
would initially call a monsoon low. It will be worth a watch to see how quickly 
a dense central structure develops and how powerful the system may become. 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 18:42:02 +1000
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Hi all,

Yeah, good point David. Its easy to get involved with your own neck of the
woods and loose track of weather in other spots around the country. Hope the
south western aussies get some badly needed rain soon. Has anyone got any
pics of the situation? It'd be interesting to see how its all fairing. Many
web cams at all in WA?

Thanks Laurier for that nice appraisal of the potential cold weather for the
south east, too. I've got the camera loaded and ready. My site is thirsty
for some new pics. I have some from the 14/15th of June, of Oberon snow, yet
to be processed.

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
 http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, July 02, 2001 9:56 AM
Subject: aus-wx: WX so far this winter.


> Andrew, Lindsay and others.... wondering where winter has gone, take a
> lookie at the latest GASP forecast, with significant cyclogenesis
forecasted
> in the vicinity of Victoria later in the week. On the bases of this
> scenario, we "should" see some significant rain and snow (though mostly
> above ~1000 metres at this stage). The UK, US, and Japanese prog are all
> heading in similar directions (am yet to see the new ECMWF for today).
>
> BTW those of us whinging in SE Australia about the endless sunshine should
> bare some thought for those in SW WA (see)
>
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=deciles
> &period=month&area=aus
> Across SW WA the June rainfall was almost everywhere the lowest on record.
> Any westerners got comments about how the dry is effecting things?
Rainfall
> for Perth so far for year is running only ~50% of normal, which must be
> having an impact.
>
> The other notable area in June was NE Queensland which was exceptionally
> warm (around +3C anomalies for both maximum and minimum temperatures),
with
> the state average maximum +2.13C the highest on record (since 1950).
> More generally across the country, it has been a mildish start to winter
but
> not unusually so. Across Australia June had a average maximum temperature
> +1.0C above the 1961-30 average (8th warmest since 1950), while the mean
> minimum was +0.31C above average (pretty much middle of "pack").
>
> Cheers,
>
> David.
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 20:19:59 +1000
From: Tony & Damian <tonyr at lisp.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Hail in Katoomba
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A good fall of small pellet hail & heavy rain crossed over the Katoomba
area around 7:15pm tonight. It's a shame it didn't last as my garden is
nothing but dust from the serious lack of rain, but here's hoping for
rain or better yet, snow at the end of the week!

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 21:02:57 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
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Hey all

Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out Ballarat
way yesterday.  Here's what I saw:

http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
(yes, I saw a webpage :)

There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up a bit
more around sunset.  Managed to drive through some small hail as well.  
In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing, and it
enabled me to test out my camcorder.  The uploaded images are perhaps a
bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next time
'round. 

I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the page.

I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 21:08:08 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney - Tonight (Monday)
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,
Does any one those living in the Greater Western parts of Sydney got any 
comments on anything tonight. I note that Penrith AWS had 30 mm between 
8 and 10 pm and 6 mm at Richmond - Radar didn't look that heavy. What 
was it?

Don W

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 00:35:50 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mega-size Tropical Storm (N.Hemisphere)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi All.

>    Hi all TC watchers (Aussie and world  wide)   Have you ever seen a
>circulation as big at Tropical  Storm Utor before. Its cloud structure is
>bigger than the entire state of QLD  and Northern Territory combined !   
>Seemed to develop from what, in Australia we  would initially call a
>monsoon low. It will be worth a watch to see how quickly  a dense central
>structure develops and how powerful the system may become.       Regards
>Simon      

To see just how BIG the circulation is in context, have a look at the GMS5
VIS-IR-WV composite full disk image at
http://users.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm before 4pm AEST on the 4th
(I will be updating it again sometime after 4pm, all going to plan).  Click
on the image if you want to see the full resolution version.

It looks like it will become a major cyclone over the next couple of days.

Regards,
Carl.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at rubix.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 22:02:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

"mini-chase"??????
all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)

I'll upload my pics when I manage to get them off the digital cam.  I
ended up further south than Robert while hunting an embedded Cb (nothing
like winter for getting in some practice) - found it & got melted hail
in the process, a 10-20 & a temperature of 9.2C,  so I was quite
pleased.  Found a couple of good lookouts & SCD met 10 calves - I'm not
quite sure who was the most bemused... Cadence or the calves......

Not much of a chase report but there'll be some nice pics (structure &
sunsets) whe I manage to retrieve them

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------


>
> Hey all
>
> Thanks to info from Jane, I managed to go on a little chase out
Ballarat
> way yesterday.  Here's what I saw:
>
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Weather/2001_07_01/today.html
> (yes, I saw a webpage :)
>
> There was some cumulus congestus around which started to beef up a bit
> more around sunset.  Managed to drive through some small hail as well.
> In all it's not really that spectacular, but better than nothing, and
it
> enabled me to test out my camcorder.  The uploaded images are perhaps
a
> bit too big as you can see the pixels, but I'll improve that next time
> 'round.
>
> I've also put Melbourne's local radar for yesterday up on the page.
>
> I'll be interested to see any snaps Jane took.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> ph. +61 3 9905 4424
> email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> --
>
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au----------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 01:14:35 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Mini-chase yesterday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

On Mon, 2 Jul 2001, Jane ONeill wrote:

> "mini-chase"??????
> all 414kms of it.... (thank goodness petrol was <80c a litre)

Well, I'm sure that compared to your 'normal' chases, 414kms would qualify
as mini :)  And I picked up petrol for 79.5 c/l which wasn't too shabby.



Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

ph. +61 3 9905 4424
email Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: "aus-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 15:20:01 -0700
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Hi,

I noticed some discussion on this forum about the upcomming winter weather
in aus and thought i would add my post originally to ski.com to get some
comments here.

Just to mention, I had my most sucessfull chase ever with a beautifull
classic supercell out in Nebraska on Saturday. We were on it for over 5
hours, watching it go from a little cu to a giant. Will have a report on it
by the end of the week ;) More chase days comming up in Wyo!


----[ski.com post]---

Hi Guys,

Well after a weekend of 'celebrations' and my best storm chase ever I'm back
at work and totally stoked for all of you back in Australia - things are
looking *real* good.

As mentioned previously, the rain/snow line may be an issue at first but i'm
confident of the biggest snowfall for the season so far. I think initially
there will be a mix and then maybe some significant rain but, hopefully, for
only a short priod while the air gets whipped around from the Tasman. After
that, it's on!

Looking at the SST's and the upper level trough forecast to come across, the
models are producing a BOMB - rapid cyclogensis off the East coast.
Everything looks spot on and the system should 'stack up' off the east coast
with a closed circulation right to 300mb. The system is forecast to cut-off
from the main baroclinic flow with a strong ridge building and intensfying
over the WA region. Considierng the momentumn that low is going to have,
it's going to spin for a while, coupled with the high, I would not be
suprised to see several fronts move straight up from the south over the next
week or more, it's going to be wild!

And for the storm chasers, it's all going to start with some possible cold
air thunderstorms comming off Bass Strait with possible waterspout sightings
definatly on the cards! Wish i was there...

Back to the snow issue..there could be some seriously good snowfalls. I'd be
looking for 50cm in Baw Baw and probbaly a little less in the central vic
alps. But this is only for the first wave of the system. If the cut-off low
sits there and the high over WA cooperates, expect coninuing snowfall, to
very low levels, late this week and into next weekend (thats out past
144hrs). If this all goes, and judging by the ECMWF, there is a good chance
that the long wave is going to coperate, a storm total of 1m across most of
the alps is definatly not out of the question. This would be a replica of
the storm that dropped 1m+ in May 2000. Here's hoping everyone!

For the pesismists who want to keep there feet on the ground, there are some
modes of faliure to consider. The 500mb vorticity looks good for
cyclogenesis but it is 'thin' in that it could be hit or miss as to whether
the surface low will form north enough to couple with the upper level
trough. I only mention this to mention it. I do not think this is an issue
at all and current obs already have the 'kink' forming on the leading edge
of this cold front. Not to mention that the upper level motion seems to have
been pushing nicely across the region to set-up for coupling.

Rain could be a real issue for a day or so as the low intensifies but,
again, i think this will only be an initial occureence and cold air will
swing through to keep the snow comming! All in all, this is a very exciting
system and the forecast patterns are looking good for a very long lived snow
event.

Cheers, Lyle

    |
 - -+-=[ Lyle Pakula ]=--------------------------------- --  -    -
    |
    |  Graduate Research Assistant                      /\
    .  Department of Atmospheric Science          _    /  \
    .  Colorado State University                 / \  /    \
       ph:    +1 (970) 491 7785                 /   \/~~~~~~\/\
    .  fax:   +1 (970) 491 8166                /~~~~/       /  \
       email: lyle at atmos.colostate.edu        /    /       /    \
       web:   http://reef.atmos.colostate.edu/lyle/       /      \
    .

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 08:22:21 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cold, wet outbreak for Thurs/Fri?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


>GASP develops 2 low centres by Thursday night, one south of Lord Howe
>Island, and another south of Adelaide, which have merged into a 994 low in
>eastern Bass Strait by Friday night. Consequently, the colder air tracks
>farther west and north, with a central thickness of 532 over Adelaide on
>Thursday night and 531 over the western Northern Tablelands of NSW by Friday
>night. Winds over Vic and NSW are mostly westerly, but GASP has 10 to 40mm
>of precip over eastern Vic and the NSW Southern Tablelands for the 48 hours
>to Sat night, and 5 to 15 up into the Central Tablelands. Snow hounds will
>be cheering on the local model!

>Laurier Williams
>Australian Weather News
>http://www.australianweathernews.com
>


Ohhhhh baby, do I like the look of that.  Please let it be true ;)

Phil


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 09:01:10 +1000 
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
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Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of course,
to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is turning
out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop (due
to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with core
thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact their
would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
(Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria is
anyone's guess?

Cheers,

David
                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 09:43:32 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.77 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
north towards SE QLD.  More so for Sydney though, what are people's
thoughts?  I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
-26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C  at  300mb though. 
If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
the max temp forecast is 18C.  Looking at radar there appears to be
strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
into the pink.  I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
something over land later this arvo for Sydney???

Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
for us in SE QLD!  The air is very cold, but there's a significant
inversion just below 500mb, -17C  at  520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb! 
-34C at 300mb though.  The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday.  The air
over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
amplify somewhat.  This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!

Something to keep an eye on though...

AC
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 09:51:00 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David and all.
There has been a marked change in the atmos: set up over south-eastern Aus
over the past several days, the development of this system and its location
will be critical in respect to where enhanced rainfall will occur, its also
possible for a surge of cold air to wrap around at some stage. Its also
interesting to note a progressive westward motion of a region of
cyclogenisis which over the past 3 weeks has favoured either west or east of
New Zealand to near Victoria this Friday. Have you noticed the reverse
upstream intensification process over the broad scale? at other times.
Regards Clyve Herbert,
----- Original Message -----
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: old AUSSIE WX (E-mail) <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:01 AM
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?


> Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of
course,
> to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
> these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is
turning
> out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop
(due
> to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
> Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
> strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with
core
> thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
> weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
> southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
> its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
> over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
> UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact
their
> would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
> (Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
> placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
> snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria
is
> anyone's guess?
>
> Cheers,
>
> David
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 10:13:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 00:13:59.0429 (UTC) FILETIME=[0E8CB350:01C10355]
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Supercell again.
The area of vorticity off central NSW can be traced to the weak mid level
trough and low over Vic on Sunday.Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx


> Hi all,
>
> Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
> north towards SE QLD.  More so for Sydney though, what are people's
> thoughts?  I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
> is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
> -26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C  at  300mb though.
> If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
> the max temp forecast is 18C.  Looking at radar there appears to be
> strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
> into the pink.  I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
> will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
> something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
>
> Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
> for us in SE QLD!  The air is very cold, but there's a significant
> inversion just below 500mb, -17C  at  520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
> -34C at 300mb though.  The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
> ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday.  The air
> over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
> amplify somewhat.  This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
> hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
> looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
>
> Something to keep an eye on though...
>
> AC
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 10:03:40 +1000
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Hi Supercell.
It was interesting to observe over Victoria on Sunday a similar structure
that ended up producing some reasonable showers and local hail which caught
"some" by surprise, the atmosphere was conditionally unstable always worth
watching!.best wishes Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:43 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Sydney & Brisbane Wx


> Hi all,
>
> Sat pic looks rather interesting for Sydney and a bit west, further
> north towards SE QLD.  More so for Sydney though, what are people's
> thoughts?  I was a little surprised they went for showers, the sounding
> is very impressive the freezing level is at 800mb, 500mb temp is
> -26C(!!!) and -43C 365mb before a small inversion, -46C  at  300mb though.
> If it gets to 16/9 (PBL averaged DP) it's unstable to 390mb in Sydney,
> the max temp forecast is 18C.  Looking at radar there appears to be
> strong showers/storms out to sea at the moment, some of them pulsing
> into the pink.  I realise there'll be a weak trough out to sea and that
> will act as a trigger in the wrong place, but is there a possibility of
> something over land later this arvo for Sydney???
>
> Of a little less interest, the sat pic wasn't quite what I was expecting
> for us in SE QLD!  The air is very cold, but there's a significant
> inversion just below 500mb, -17C  at  520mb, but -14C from 500mb to 420mb!
> -34C at 300mb though.  The BoM are going for local thunder on the border
> ranges - there were some weak Cbs and large showers yesterday.  The air
> over us however will get colder as this upper trough continues to
> amplify somewhat.  This is going to be a wild card - we could see some
> hailstorms if the cold air gets here in time, the 400mb temps are
> looking to drop from -18C to -28C according to AVN!
>
> Something to keep an eye on though...
>
> AC
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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X-Originating-IP: [141.132.130.120]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Turkey Soup!
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 02:23:03 
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<x-flowed>

Hey all
Well it was a fun weekend, we had turkey towers all weekend from friday till 
monday, I took a few happy snaps at the gobble gobblers, and we had some 
heavy showers from the turkey's late saturday avo/night. I also watched the 
weekend weather reports on the TV, and well once again I felt sick, 
absolutally pathetic! No mention of the rain we had (was having!). The 
Channel 7 report was attroscious! Fine and partly cloudly!? With turkey's! 
That's crazy. something needs to be done.

Anyway the weather is interesting at the moment, with morning frosts and 
then the turkey's get up in the late avo, feels like a summer style upper 
low, except it's not warm enough.

Anyway that'll do for now, when I get the pics I'll have them scanned

Cheers
Les Baxter
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</x-flowed>
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 12:22:10 +1000
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Hi folk,

Lunchtime Bom forecast for Friday for Central Tablelands:Thunder, possible
hail, snow to 800 metres and strong winds. Cold.

That would do me just fine!

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
 http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Jones" <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, July 03, 2001 9:01 AM
Subject: Subject: aus-wx: Winter on it's way?


> Lyle and others, ain't second guessing the models in advance fun! Of
course,
> to keep us on our toes the new batch of progs have started coming in and
> these show some variations to the scenarios. Most notably, the UK is
turning
> out a rather warm but impressive bomb for Friday, with a pressure drop
(due
> to development rather than advection) of some 25hPa in 24 hours near Gabo
> Island (central pressures around 985hPa). Both GASP and UK now develop a
> strong warm and moist wrap around on the southern side of the low, with
core
> thickness values approaching 550 gpdm near Bass Strait late in week or
> weekend. The cold pool associated with the lows is progged to hover near
> southern NSW through the event, with a quite remarkable baroclinic zone to
> its south with (for example) 850 hPa temperatures being around 8C warmer
> over Bass Strait/Tassie than southern NSW on Friday night. **IF** GASP and
> UK are right, this system could be a serious rain producer... in fact
their
> would seem potential for a "very heavy rain" situation in the usual spots
> (Otways, south Gippsland Hills, NE Tasmania etc.) depending on the exact
> placement of the low and resultant onshore flow trajectories. As for
> snow.... it look bad for Tassie but probably very good for NSW. Victoria
is
> anyone's guess?
>
> Cheers,
>
> David
>
> Dr David Jones
>
> Climate Analysis Section
> National Climate Centre
> Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
> GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
> Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
> email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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>

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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Conditionally Unstable, SE,QLD and most of eastern NSW.
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 13:07:47 +1000
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Hi all.
Looks to be conditionally unstable over most of the eastern parts of NSW and
southeast QLD, there could be some reasonable to decent CB developments over
these parts today especially the northern Tablelands,regards Clyve H.

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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 13:18:39 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Hank de Wit <H.deWit at bom.gov.au>
Subject: aus-wx: GMS5 Media Release
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<x-flowed>
The BOM's Media Release on the GMS5 changes. I don't think there is much 
new there.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20010703.shtml

Cheers
Hank

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X-Originating-IP: [139.86.2.10]
From: "Nathan Smith" <ultraguppy at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: hail in toowoomba
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:04:25 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 Jul 2001 04:04:26.0148 (UTC) FILETIME=[3FEA9640:01C10375]
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<x-flowed>
just had heavy rain and some small hail in Toowoomba starting at 1:30pm and 
going for about half an hour.

it's freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezing here

have fun

Nate
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</x-flowed>
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: NSW coastline
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 14:30:45 +1000 (EST)
From: h.richter at bom.gov.au (Harald Richter)
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Hi all:

In addition to Clyve's message of hope, there's moderate
lightning activity just off the C and N NSW coastline with some decent 
lapse rates overspreading equally decent SSTs.  The showers 
and storms are arranged in a vaguely linear formation, with the 
N (tail) end having brought some precip to Toowoomba.

If this morning's BRI sounding hasn't changed dramatically, 
none of the N convection has the chance to stand tall as
a sizeable inversion caps activity around 500 hPa.
My coordinates of choice ATM would be the Coffs Harbour/GRafton/Yamba
area unless you own a fast boat.

One of the better cells was located about 70 km ENE of
Coffs Harbour at 3:30 UTC (1:30 pm ET) with 2 distinct cores exceeding
~50 dBZ (i.e. pink) and a longish precip shield extending to the SE.

It's July, and I'll take it.

Cheers, Harald

-- 
--------------------------------
Harald Richter
BMRC
PO Box 1289K
Melbourne VIC 3001
Australia
ph:     +61 3 9669 4501
fax:    +61 3 9669 4660
email:  h.richter at bom.gov.au
url:    soon(ish)
--------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 14:37:04 +1000
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IDW16N00

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Northern Rivers

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall. 

The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
  * put vehicles under cover 
  * move indoors away from windows

During and after the storm people should:
  * beware of fallen trees and power lines 
  * keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away 
   
The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
the wet.
 
If your house is damaged contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500 for
emergency assistance. Do not use the telephone during the storm. 

TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for the Northern Rivers
weather forecast district.

MEDIA PLEASE NOTE: This Advice message is valid until 6pm. The Bureau and
SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time.

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X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: STA [was WEATHER: NSW coastline]
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:46:59 +1000
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<x-flowed>
Good call Harald. I'm sure the north coast folk will have a blast.
_____________________________________________

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE


BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Northern Rivers

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
and very heavy rainfall.


_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 14:54:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Yes I have a cell right on me now just east of Lismore (2.55pm). Very large 
drops - hoping for some hail !

Michael


At 14:37 03/07/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>IDW16N00
>
>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>
>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>Issued at 1426 on Tuesday the 3rd of July 2001
>
>This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
>Northern Rivers
>
>Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
>these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, damaging winds
>and very heavy rainfall.
>
>The STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE advises that as storms approach people should:
>   * put vehicles under cover
>   * move indoors away from windows
>
>During and after the storm people should:
>   * beware of fallen trees and power lines
>   * keep away from creeks and drains as you may be swept away
>
>The RTA recommends motorists switch their lights & wipers on & slow down in
>the wet.
>
>If your house is damaged contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500 for
>emergency assistance. Do not use the telephone during the storm.
>
>TV CRAWL: Severe Thunderstorm Advice current for the Northern Rivers
>weather forecast district.
>
>MEDIA PLEASE NOTE: This Advice message is valid until 6pm. The Bureau and
>SES would appreciate it being broadcast regularly until this time.
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "Dean McWhinney" <mcwhinneyd at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW STA
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 15:30:10 +1000
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HEHE good luck hope you get it :)
unfortunately nothing for syd yet no big cbs like yesterday but heres hoping
:)



<snip> Yes I have a cell right on me now just east of Lismore (2.55pm). Very
large drops - hoping for some hail !

 Michael


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Country Energy - Storm Info
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:17:56 +1000
X-MIMETrack: Serialize by Router on Domino/Advance(Release 5.0.7 |March 21, 2001) at 03/07/2001
 04:17:56
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HI all..

Im sure there are alot of people in the North of the state now realise that
North Power is now Country Energy..  From 1st July Advance Energy, North
Power and Great Southern started trading as Country Energy,   Slowly but
surely we will all have systems information into one system..

I will have now have direct contact with old North Power Call Centre in
Port Mac and GSE Call Centre at Queanbeyan for any storm reports needed.

Any info required please email me at the above address..  This will change
in near future..

Thanks

David Carroll
Bathurst.


#####################################################################################
This message is intended for the addressee named and may contain confidential 
information. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete it and notify the
sender. Views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender, and are 
not necessarily the views of Country Energy.
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From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Tweed Heads /Kingscliff storm
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Mailer: Lotus Notes Release 5.0.5  September 22, 2000
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:36:01 +1000
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 04:36:00
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HI all..

Report from Port Mac Call Centre,  ligjhtning hit power lines at
Kingscliff.. lines brought down.. minor outage..

Dave




#####################################################################################
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X-Authentication-Warning: cordelia.flexi.net.au: Host racport06.flexi.net.au [203.37.233.22] claimed to be adamcole
From: "Adam Troy Cole" <acole at flexi.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: hail in Warwick
Date: Tue, 3 Jul 2001 16:58:38 +1000
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Hail in Warwick Starting aprox 3pm, with nice strong outflow winds before
arriving. Unexpected but really nice, still raining on and off at 5pm.

Adam

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Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 16:45:28 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: PC to PC file transfer
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

Sorry for this hugely off topic post.

Does anyone know of utilities that enable direct file transfers between two 
PCs via a parallel cable or whatever?

I huge upgraded my PC and have to get several Gigs of data onto the new one 
so I can create CDs of all the weather data saved. The old PC has serial 
and parallel ports. DOS programs are fine. I just need something that will 
send directories of data from one PC to the other via a cable. I do not 
have network cards.

Please email me privately:
mbath at ozemail.com.au

thanks


  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [152.91.9.11]
From: "michael king" <mskikey at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow page up finally
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2001 17:38:42 +1000
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P>Phil</P>
<P>I wasn't in SA then, but I distinctly remember Bendigo, where I lived at the time, getting snow (my first sight of the stuff) one very cold Sunday in July '69.&nbsp; It was my sister's first holy communion day, and we have photos of her