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From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
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<x-flowed>
Anthony that graph you have described is important but in a discussion with 
Paul Graham, we decided that some of the more violent tornadoes tend to 
occur in a group with high SRH and high CAPE at the same time.  I know that 
it would potentially be a massive complex. I think this may have been the 
case in Oklahoma City May 3 outbreak from observation of the satpic 
animation for the day. What do others think?

Jimmy Deguara

At 10:38 AM 30/04/01 -0700, you wrote:
>Hi Anthony,
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
>
>
> > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > the shear is "right."  I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > it for a certain region.  The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > of these two with a scaling factor).
> >
>
>I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
>CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
>
>Cheers, Lyle
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 07:45:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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<x-flowed>
Hi Jonty,

Your thoughts are exactly what I am thinking about that we simply do not 
know. We have only covered a small proportion of our countryside over a two 
year period really. And usually when you want to be out there, you can't!!! 
Now the argument is not about chasing but I do believe that video and 
photographic evidence is more effective to help identify and also help 
educate others in identifying wall clouds, funnels and tornadoes as we see 
them rather than apply the typical model we see in the US documentaries 
where you tend to see text book cases, and often the footage you see are 
repeated time and time again in documentaries giving the impression of more 
violent tornadoes than actually occurs.

One question before I proceed: have the US chasers and researchers talked 
about Australian conditions? I mean have they been able to compare US 
satellite picture based data with supercell outbreaks here and even suspect 
probable tornadic activity? I am just curious as there may be patterns 
where one probably can with a high degree of certainty suspect tornadic 
activity..

However, I do believe that since conditions come together more often, then 
the US do have more tornadoes and therefore a larger proportion of larger 
ones. However, it seems the regularity of the conditions tends to occur 
April to June. Our storm season, like others of course, seems to be able to 
start from August and spread all the way to April in most years. We do not 
have a prescribed season.

Further, there was an argument put forward about the continental land mass 
allowing for cold air to come southwards with larger temperature 
differences but these tend to be more important and more frequent earlier 
in the season. As Jonty suggests, the synoptic conditions is not far 
fetched from Australia considering out latitude. I think the late 
spring/early summer season tends to be more aligned with similar profiles 
to what we enjoy here. Again the lower level jet is the key factor in my 
opinion that we have lacked in storms we have chased.

I think the answer will not come thoroughly from storm chasing alone but by 
improvements in remote sensing from satellites. Determining the wind flow 
at the surface and teaming up with observers/storm chasers is a very 
important project that I would like to be part of. It may help verify what 
conditions have occurred when we get more explosive environments - 
particularly when tornadic supercells are observed and perhaps compare to 
the US. Unfortunately, we do not have the "needs" for such research to take 
place but you never know if the US researchers may want to team up with 
Australian researchers to help improve global models on finer grid scale.

Anyway, I think it is an exciting time ahead.

Jimmy Deguara

At 09:40 PM 30/04/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David and all,
>
>Just a couple more points. Firstly, I do not believe that any conclusive
>evidence exists that there is any dynamical difference between US
>supercells and Australian ones (other than the change of hemisphere). A
>supercell is a mode of convection that is the result of a variety of
>environmental factors. It does not appear to make any difference how these
>influences are brought together synoptically. In the great plains of the
>US, for a variety of reasons, these influences are in place more often
>than anywhere else. But despite a heck of a lot of research and
>observation, don't be too confident that even in the US they know all
>there is to know about supercell and tornado dynamics, and so comparing
>them to ours, which we know even less about, is a bit of a stab in the
>dark. Neither do I think you can say with any level of confidence at all
>that a smaller fraction of our supercells are tornadic. As an example, you
>only have to look at April 6 this year on the US plains. A strong surface
>low, rich boundary layer moisture in the warm sector with strong
>convergence about the cold front and dry line, vigorous mid-level short
>wave overlain by a strong upper jet all combined to give classic major
>outbreak conditions, with very steep lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic
>to 500 hPa, surface based CAPEs of 2500-3000, moderate low level capping,
>with good low-level and deep layer shear with SRH in the 300-500.  I'm
>sure I just made a few mouths water - but the result? A grand total of 2
>brief, weak tornadoes. Plenty of large hail and wind damage reports, but
>virtually no tornadoes, and certainly no significant ones. What happened?
>The same thing that often happens, even over there. Supercells, but no low
>level rotation, and no tornadoes. Why did it happen (or not happen) - no
>one knows.
>
>Studies of Australian supercells are in their infancy it is true. But an
>important factor to understand here is that even in the US, only a SMALL
>minority of supercells are tornadic. This cannot be emphasised enough.
>Figures are hard to give with any certainty, but it is probably somewhere
>near 20%. Low level rotation cannot be considered as a benchmark of US
>supercells, or anything of the sort, as the majority of them simply do not
>have it. Do not be overly influenced by graphic pictures of big outbreak
>days. You do not see anything from the majority of days when the
>supercells do not produce anything other than large hail or damaging
>straight line winds (or nothing at all) - for example April 6 (this is
>quite a spectacular failure case, but there are countless less eyeopening
>ones every year)!
>
>One other thing to remember is that quite a large fraction of initial
>tornado reports in the US (which are later placed in the US tornado data
>set) do not come from chasers, or even registered spotters. They come from
>locals - policemen, shopkeepers, teachers, folk in the street. How many of
>those would be reported in Australia? A hell of a lot fewer, because a)
>there are way way less streets for people to be in, and b) a much smaller
>proportion of people would know a tornado if they fell over one, or would
>recogonise the importance of reporting it even if they did. With the vast
>majority of our (comparitively) miniscule population living on the coastal
>strip where a larger proportion of HP supercells with poor visibility and
>poor viewing conditions could be expected, the situation is even worse.
>
>Overall, it is a fascinating subject isn't it, and one I know quite a few
>of the American researchers are interested in...
>
>Jonty.
>
>
>
>On Mon, 30 Apr 2001, David Croan wrote:
>
> > <html><DIV>
> > <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;The point about supercell research being mostly 
> based on the US </DIV>
> > <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;experience
> > <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;is valid. I do personally believe we have a slightly 
> different
> > <DIV></DIV>
> > <P>&gt;&gt;animal. </P>
> > <DIV>
> > <DIV>I agree Michael and I suppose this argument could be used anywhere 
> in the world. I think the US is quite unique in that it seems so ideally 
> located and geographically configured for&nbsp;'the' animal. To me 
> Australia is not, and I'm not sure thatwe have a&nbsp;severe storm 'set 
> -up' any better than South America or even Africa. I believe we have a 
> less ideal setup&nbsp;than China, and other parts of Asia (Bangladesh for 
> example).</DIV>
> > <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
> > <DIV>Based on the efforts of chasers over the last several years, in my 
> view it is quite telling that no&nbsp;supercells with rapidly rotating 
> wall clouds, or even the dramatic base structure which is the hallmark of 
> the US storms, have been caught on video. We get giant hail,&nbsp;we get 
> 100+ mph straight line&nbsp;winds and monster 18+ km high 
> storms.&nbsp;But we&nbsp;seem to get very few storms that exhibit strong 
> rotation at the lower levels, something that I believe will be confirmed 
> over the coming years. </DIV>
> > <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
> > <DIV>It is still early days as far as Australian chasing goes, but my 
> suspicion is that the prime areas have been well covered by chasers now. 
> I know great storms will continue to be caught on video although i think 
> the tornadoes will continue to be few and far between.&nbsp;In comparison 
> to the US, I think&nbsp;it is quite obvious that they get 
> more&nbsp;supercells than Australia and many more tornadic supercells. </DIV>
> > <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
> > <DIV>Based on my armchair observations over the last few years, a 
> typical spring period in the US sees instability persisting over much 
> broader areas than Australia, is more extreme and of course both speed 
> and dierctional windshear is much better. Still we get our fair share and 
> as a storm chaser rather than a tornado chaser, I for one am not 
> dissapointed with what we get! </DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your 
> Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a 
> href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG" <Godsman.Andrew.AG at bhp.com>
To: "aussie-weather at world. std. com (E-mail)"
	 <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 09:40:52 +1000 
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Port Kembla 9:40am EST

It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain, mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.

If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.

Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
Andrew Godsman

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce" <violin at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: NSW AWS site not working properly?
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 11:04:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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Hi all,

Has anyone else had problems with the NSW AWS site available to the public?
I can access the current page with all of the stations on it but when you go
to individual stations for the last 72 hours of records, it hasn't been
updated since 10am Monday. Just wondering if its my server (although it
hasn't done this before) or at the Bom's end?

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65091.shtml



Cheers,

Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath,  Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
 http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 11:55:43 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!

This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.

Andrew.


"Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
> 
> Port Kembla 9:40am EST
> 
> It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain, mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
> 
> If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
> 
> Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> Andrew Godsman
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 

With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.

Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 14:19:26 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite loop flexibility
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Hi all

I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but I was just playing
around with the satellite image loops provided by

http://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/main.pl?aust

when I realised you can change the image size and number of images to
loop. For example, with the current IR loop

http://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+12+682+602+aust+ir+auir20011210231.jpg

the number '12' after the 'jpg' represents the number of images in the
loop, eg change this to 6, 16, etc

the next two numbers '682' and '602' are the image size.  This always
puzzled me why the loop image is so small compared to the still.  To get
the original size, just change these numbers to 1364 and 1204
respectively. The first number is the y-dimension, and the second the x.

These details apply also to the other loops provided.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 15:54:12 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
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Hi Jimmy,

Given that (IMO), these are one of the two most major factors - you'd
require both to be present in large quantities to produce the "perfect"
conditions.  If they both contribute to tornado liklihood, then you'd
expect both ingredients if present in large quantities to contribute to
larger/more violent tornadoes.  Ultimately the trade-off 'effect' would
tend to produce smaller/weaker/shorter lived tornadoes - but this is not
always the case, which I guess throws more fire into the debate of
tornadoes and how they form..

AC

Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> 
> Anthony that graph you have described is important but in a discussion with
> Paul Graham, we decided that some of the more violent tornadoes tend to
> occur in a group with high SRH and high CAPE at the same time.  I know that
> it would potentially be a massive complex. I think this may have been the
> case in Oklahoma City May 3 outbreak from observation of the satpic
> animation for the day. What do others think?
> 
> Jimmy Deguara
> 
> At 10:38 AM 30/04/01 -0700, you wrote:
> >Hi Anthony,
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> >To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> >
> >
> > > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > > the shear is "right."  I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > > it for a certain region.  The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > > of these two with a scaling factor).
> > >
> >
> >I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
> >CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
> >
> >Cheers, Lyle
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
> 
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
> 
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
> 
> Web Page with Michael Bath
> 
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
> 
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 15:50:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Hi Lyle,

Shear in itself can actually create instability.  For example, strong
diffluent or divergent jets actually cause a lower pressure around
them.  This is because more air is leaving the jet then enterting that
certain area.  (An analogy of this is actually something I've observed
at Withcott on the Warrego Hwy :)  Towards Withcott from Toowoomba, the
speed limit drops from 100 to 60, all the cars converge on each other
and bunch up as faster cars come from behind and slow down - there's
always people waiting near Withcott to join the highway, it's harder for
them here because there's lots of cars enterting.  Just on the east side
if Withcott, the speed limit goes from 60 to 100, the cars first to hit
the 100 sign accelerate away from the cars behind them - leaving space
for cars to join the highway.  Motto of this, you'll save time in busy
traffic trying to merge onto the highway on the east side of Withcott
heading east :-)  But it's the same in jets - with more air leaving the
region then enterting it (by region I mean over a small area of space,
ie several km/tens of km), this causes a low pressure region and air
below it moves upward to replace it.

Diffluent jets have a similar effect - just think of lots of cars
leaving the highway due to lots of exits, and there's a lot more room
for other cars to join.  IE - more air is leaving the area then entering
it, creating low pressure.  So this helps in adding buoyancy to the
updraft.  In high shear situations, low CAPE could prevail - but the
effects of an upper level trough/low and diffluent/divergent shear in
the mid-upper levels can assist in "pulling" an updraft (it doesn't
really pull though).  I think high shear situations tend to be stronger
in winter as the jets are lower, so their impact is felt stronger in the
lower levels.  A strong cold front, or even the convergence zone on the
coast due to wind friction (less friction on water than land), helps act
as a forcing mechanism.

AC

Lyle Pakula wrote:
> 
> Hi Anthony,
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> 
> > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > the shear is "right."  I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > it for a certain region.  The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > of these two with a scaling factor).
> >
> 
> I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
> CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
> 
> Cheers, Lyle
> 
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 16:05:10 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<snip fascinating discussion>

Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
the lay public, condensation funnels?  If for some reason [higher
condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of aussie
vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
debris swirl if they touched down.  Hardly your average wedge that people
are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was right
in front of them for what it was.

Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.

Phil

Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
       "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 16:31:39 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I may bore people here :)  But I finally did manage to watch the
documentary that was pointed out before (I taped it).  It was
interesting watching it, while it was slightly corny/angled at the UK
couple's life (I half expected you to be on it Les Crossan :-)

Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
the fundamental reasons I love chasing.  The hours on the road (I love
driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
problems :-)  It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
temperatures.  It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
after!  It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
end up (although you have an idea).

I guess this is another aspect to why I love chasing for a couple of
weeks towards the end of year - again, ignoring the factor of 24/7 of
potential weather/storms!  But you never know where you're going to end
up, and it just makes it that little bit more exciting.  You learn a lot
about Australia travelling all over the country side, and you visit
places that you haven't even heard of before!  Each of them having some
aspect of them that sticks in your mind forever...to name just a few
(I'm sure many will know what I'm talking about):

- We got thrown out of a restaurant in Thargomindah for asking to buy
dinner, and a certain person got half the town drunk in the pub and then
there was a domestic at 12:30am in the motel carpark!
- The Warrego Wizzard in Charleville
- The "button person" in Bourke
- Cunnamulla pizza poisoning & powerade night
- In Theodore if 3 people tried to talk on their mobile, the signal
would all drop out
- "The Quirindi Wind Event" 

The list goes on and on, lots of memories, lots of fun!

I liked how this documentary commented and touched on a few of these
sorts of points (ie, it's not *just* the weather), it's just great full
stop!

Reflecting back on last year, it was the first year I was truly able to
chase properly, and while the season didn't even match past seasons I
recall in Brisbane...it was infinitely better!  One of my favourite
events was November 2-7, I was able to chase on Nov3-6, covering over
2000km in SE QLD.  It was absolutely tremendous, the amount I learnt
about supercells was incredible!  There were other memorable moments -
in October, driving through a weak tornado was certainly a hair-raising
experience!  Followed by a few days after by a midnight outing to what
looked like weak thunderstorms, gave severe weather to parts of the Gold
Coast.  A week later Oct 25/26 was another great couple of days, with
lightning going all through the night on the 26th with some of the most
amazing (and frequent displays).  After TD2K (which was beyond any words
or description, both regarding weather and non-weather related things),
there were a couple of days of storms in the Downs.  I was able to chase
one of these days and got some very nice wind and hail, as well as some
nice lightning on video.  Things quietened down through December after
that, although around Christmas we had a couple of days of storms to wet
our appetite, and again towards the 2nd week of January.  January 17 and
18 were again, beyond words - at least, until I saw Michael Bath's
footage of this day (with anything else I had seen in QLD looking rather
tame) - truly incredible couple of supercells.  Again ten days after
that, another few days of storms gave some "fun chases" - although it
ended with a bit of a low note when while driving through heavy rain, my
car careered into a floodway which I hadn't seen - the water was high
enough to nearly go over the bonnet.  Fortunately the damage to the car
didn't exceed much over $200.  February was rather quiet though storm
wise.  Although we did get some rather significant flooding!

March was great - although the quality of storms wasn't always there,
but March 9 let everyone know that the storm season wasn't over yet! 
Some some places receiving 200mm in 50mins.  A few days after, what was
a fairly benign (yet nice!) looking shelf cloud turned into a monster,
which made my day!  To complete it, a 2hr lightning show with lightning
over second spread across a 180 degree northern horizon.  It was by then
I was truly content - I had already "talked to myself" about the season
winding down, and it had done the opposite!  There were up to about 18
or so thunderdays in SEQ during March, certainly quite active!  Humidity
was very high for a large chunk of this.  Even April came as a bonus
when just recently we had some storms in SEQ and the Downs.  And even
now there are storms to the NW of Brisbane towards the Brisbane
Valley/NE Downs region.

It really has been a great year - it's not hard to say why I like
chasing so much, there are just so many aspects which make it enjoyable
for me!
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 18:29:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Phil,

There certainly is truth in what you say. Most of the tornadoes/possible 
tornadoes have been observed without the so-called typical text book funnel 
reaching the ground. Good point made but I suppose time will tell what is 
observed in the future.

The time when I stopped to think about what is observed here as compared to 
the US is when I saw chasers referring to wall clouds that didn't even look 
like such. I mean i nice circular base rotating either slightly or rapidly. 
Well, when I observe small prongs in videos, I found myself reflecting back 
on my photos only to find very similar examples.

An example might come in handy here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall01.htm   refer to the 
wall cloud pics 3/4 way down the page with Riverstone and Rooty Hill listed 
on the same storm. If you doubt this, I have seen US examples and these 
were rotating (I think anti-cyclonically but I couldn't be sure) and the 
storm had a very strong updraught.

Also 
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1204jd12.jpg  now 
this one would not even qualify in most people's book but it rotated 
anti-cyclonically and was maintained for over 20 minutes but obviously was 
never going to do anything.

And this:

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd04.jpg

Yes it was underneath the main updraught and eventually became this later on:

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd14.jpg

Quite interesting.

Jimmy Deguara

At 04:05 PM 1/05/01 +0930, you wrote:
><snip fascinating discussion>
>
>Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
>tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
>supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
>differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
>supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
>the lay public, condensation funnels?  If for some reason [higher
>condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of aussie
>vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
>debris swirl if they touched down.  Hardly your average wedge that people
>are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was right
>in front of them for what it was.
>
>Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.
>
>Phil
>
>Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
>- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
>        "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
>
>
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [129.94.6.29]
From: "James Pickett" <juxie_69 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy  SYDNEY METRO rain was (Wollongong Rain)
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 08:43:39 -0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 May 2001 08:43:40.0061 (UTC) FILETIME=[D20094D0:01C0D21A]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,
      yeah a huge dumping over my place overnight(airport). I am still 
convinced that at least 30-40 mm of that fell in 15 minutes this morning 
around 7.30am. Driving to city around the airport tunnel traffic came to a 
grinding holt with cars pulling over,slamming on brakes and others stopping 
completely in the tunnel. Within minutes the road had become a torrent of 
moving water and i was becoming increasingly uncomfortable not moving in it! 
I swear that i couldnt see the car in front of me for a few minutes there, 
and no the windows wernt fogged up.It was like night time! Incredible stuff! 
Wonder if anyone can confirm this on radar?
      After all of this i was late for tech and it just so happens that 
everyone else in my class lives in the western suburbs, "what rain", "Your 
full of it" and "Heard that one before" were all thrown at me. Very annoyed, 
let me tell u!!
SEE YOU ALL LATER.
REGARDS JAMES P.


>From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
>Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 11:55:43 +1000
>
>Hi all,
>
>Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
>The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
>about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
>closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!
>
>This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
>scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
>that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
>and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.
>
>Andrew.
>
>
>"Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
> >
> > Port Kembla 9:40am EST
> >
> > It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly 
>heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning 
>and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain, 
>mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been 
>increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would 
>have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind 
>direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the 
>escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here 
>will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
> >
> > If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't 
>green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
> >
> > Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> > Andrew Godsman
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail 
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of 
>your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>
>With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
>messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
>
>Andrew Miskelly
>amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0.2
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 18:19:38 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall <astroman at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
I agree with you Anthony, great post by the way, probably the first essay I 
have read of yours :)

Nothing like the thrill, the chase, the exploration of the country side, 
while less than 1km away the ground is being pelted with 1 inch hail stones 
and lightning that can only be counted in milli-seconds.

Andrew




At 04:31 PM 5/1/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>I may bore people here :)  But I finally did manage to watch the
>documentary that was pointed out before (I taped it).  It was
>interesting watching it, while it was slightly corny/angled at the UK
>couple's life (I half expected you to be on it Les Crossan :-)
>
>Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
>the fundamental reasons I love chasing.  The hours on the road (I love
>driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
>just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
>a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
>reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
>about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
>problems :-)  It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
>smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
>temperatures.  It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
>contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
>after!  It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
>what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
>end up (although you have an idea).
>
>I guess this is another aspect to why I love chasing for a couple of
>weeks towards the end of year - again, ignoring the factor of 24/7 of
>potential weather/storms!  But you never know where you're going to end
>up, and it just makes it that little bit more exciting.  You learn a lot
>about Australia travelling all over the country side, and you visit
>places that you haven't even heard of before!  Each of them having some
>aspect of them that sticks in your mind forever...to name just a few
>(I'm sure many will know what I'm talking about):
>
>- We got thrown out of a restaurant in Thargomindah for asking to buy
>dinner, and a certain person got half the town drunk in the pub and then
>there was a domestic at 12:30am in the motel carpark!
>- The Warrego Wizzard in Charleville
>- The "button person" in Bourke
>- Cunnamulla pizza poisoning & powerade night
>- In Theodore if 3 people tried to talk on their mobile, the signal
>would all drop out
>- "The Quirindi Wind Event"
>
>The list goes on and on, lots of memories, lots of fun!
>
>I liked how this documentary commented and touched on a few of these
>sorts of points (ie, it's not *just* the weather), it's just great full
>stop!
>
>Reflecting back on last year, it was the first year I was truly able to
>chase properly, and while the season didn't even match past seasons I
>recall in Brisbane...it was infinitely better!  One of my favourite
>events was November 2-7, I was able to chase on Nov3-6, covering over
>2000km in SE QLD.  It was absolutely tremendous, the amount I learnt
>about supercells was incredible!  There were other memorable moments -
>in October, driving through a weak tornado was certainly a hair-raising
>experience!  Followed by a few days after by a midnight outing to what
>looked like weak thunderstorms, gave severe weather to parts of the Gold
>Coast.  A week later Oct 25/26 was another great couple of days, with
>lightning going all through the night on the 26th with some of the most
>amazing (and frequent displays).  After TD2K (which was beyond any words
>or description, both regarding weather and non-weather related things),
>there were a couple of days of storms in the Downs.  I was able to chase
>one of these days and got some very nice wind and hail, as well as some
>nice lightning on video.  Things quietened down through December after
>that, although around Christmas we had a couple of days of storms to wet
>our appetite, and again towards the 2nd week of January.  January 17 and
>18 were again, beyond words - at least, until I saw Michael Bath's
>footage of this day (with anything else I had seen in QLD looking rather
>tame) - truly incredible couple of supercells.  Again ten days after
>that, another few days of storms gave some "fun chases" - although it
>ended with a bit of a low note when while driving through heavy rain, my
>car careered into a floodway which I hadn't seen - the water was high
>enough to nearly go over the bonnet.  Fortunately the damage to the car
>didn't exceed much over $200.  February was rather quiet though storm
>wise.  Although we did get some rather significant flooding!
>
>March was great - although the quality of storms wasn't always there,
>but March 9 let everyone know that the storm season wasn't over yet!
>Some some places receiving 200mm in 50mins.  A few days after, what was
>a fairly benign (yet nice!) looking shelf cloud turned into a monster,
>which made my day!  To complete it, a 2hr lightning show with lightning
>over second spread across a 180 degree northern horizon.  It was by then
>I was truly content - I had already "talked to myself" about the season
>winding down, and it had done the opposite!  There were up to about 18
>or so thunderdays in SEQ during March, certainly quite active!  Humidity
>was very high for a large chunk of this.  Even April came as a bonus
>when just recently we had some storms in SEQ and the Downs.  And even
>now there are storms to the NW of Brisbane towards the Brisbane
>Valley/NE Downs region.
>
>It really has been a great year - it's not hard to say why I like
>chasing so much, there are just so many aspects which make it enjoyable
>for me!
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
>  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 message.
 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:12:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

You hit the nail on the head Andrew. I spent a frustrating rainless night
here in Mt Warrigal. There was some drizzle when I left for work at 7.30am
this morning, which became heavier rain once in Wollongong itself.

There still is the potential for better things this week, but it depends on
that low in the Tasman, the various models are quite undecided about whether
it will head W/SW  or stay stationary then drift towards NZ. Either way I
expect the seas to pick up to quite large by Thursday.

Michael

----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly" <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 1 May 2001 11:55
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain


> Hi all,
>
> Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
> The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
> about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
> closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!
>
> This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
> scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
> that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
> and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> "Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
> >
> > Port Kembla 9:40am EST
> >
> > It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly
heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning
and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain,
mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been
increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would
have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind
direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the
escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here
will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
> >
> > If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't
green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
> >
> > Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> > Andrew Godsman
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
>
> With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
> messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
>
> Andrew Miskelly
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
>  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA car stickers
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:40:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Evening all,

For those of you who are interested in purchasing an ASWA car sticker &
haven't had the chance to yet, you can have them mailed to you.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/aswalogo.htm will give you an idea of
what they look like - they are on reflective backing & measure approx 15
x 10cm & look absolutely stunning!!!  Great for cars, fridges,
schoolbags, luggage & anything else you want to make easily
recognisable!! They are $4 each (including postage & handling).

If you'd like to buy 1, 2, 4 (or 10 like someone whose name we won't
mention in Qld....) , just send a cheque or money order for the
appropriate amount made out to ASWA Inc, include your return postal
address & I'll pop them in the mail for you.

The postal address to send cheque / money order to is

ASWA - Victoria
227 / 16 Cotham Road
KEW  Victoria  3101

Jane

PS: if you are in the USA, keep your eye out for a certain Jimmy Deguara
who will be out on the plains mid May to mid June - he'll have them on
his person!!

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------






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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:40:12 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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I think many of your points about chasing are similar to mine and others
too.

I must admit I like the excitement and anticipation of moving from air mass
and into another.

A classic example was the first group chase we had back in 1998 (
http://ozthunder.com/chase/tour.htm )
On the second week Jimmy, Paul Yole, myself and Clyve Herbert chased. The
day we left had seen a SE wind change move up the coast overnight. At
Wollongong it was overcast with the almost obligatory stratocumulus. However
once above the escarpment Paul and I could see far in the north a line of
castellanus. Therefore we knew the trough was roughly no more then 150kms
northwards. The excitement mounted.

We picked up Jimmy and Clyve and then hit the infamous Putty road. The start
of the road was under the stabilising SE, but as we ventured north we
eventually caught the trough line, then at around Singleton overtook it.

This is one of the aspects I love !!..........and it is one our USA brothers
( and sisters ) share too, how many times have you read a chase report
saying something like " we moved east to intercept the dryline " or " we
left Kansas under a grey overcast, but knew once we hit Texas we would again
be warm moist air "

The other aspect is learning. I think my 'gut knowledge' ( no wise cracks
please ) is very good, I do a lot on instinct and rarely refer to radar or
any data once on the road. However matched against this ability was a lack
of knowledge of things like what the upper atmosphere was doing, LI, and
CAPES, so chasing and interacting with other chasers has taught me many
skills over the years.

Michael



> Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
> the fundamental reasons I love chasing.  The hours on the road (I love
> driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
> just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
> a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
> reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
> about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
> problems :-)  It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
> smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
> temperatures.  It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
> contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
> after!  It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
> what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
> end up (although you have an idea).



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 21:32:11 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Michael,

(This is off-topic somewhat, I apologise)

Michael Thompson wrote:
<snip>
> The other aspect is learning. I think my 'gut knowledge' ( no wise cracks
> please ) is very good, <snip>

Don't worry MT, if weather knowledge and experience was measured by gut
size both you and I would be the world's leading storm chasers,
researches and forecasters! :-)
-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain 
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:12:15 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>David Croan and others,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Please note I have just read this email and no 
others further down my list so if I'm covering old ground I apologise.&nbsp; 
(caution - long email)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Just a few comments regarding David's email 
below.&nbsp; </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regarding Australia not having as good a severe 
storm set-up as other countries....well I don't know enough about other 
countries to comment on this so I'll leave this to those who know.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As for the comment re: storms exhibiting strong low 
level rotation - I am a little inclined to agree to the portion of the statement 
which suggests we don't <U><STRONG>see</STRONG></U> a lot of this in Australia 
to a certain extent but I will discuss my reasons for this in the next 
statement.&nbsp; As for the comment that we don't <STRONG><U>get</U></STRONG> 
this strong rotation in the lower levels - I think this comes back to the point 
which relates to the lack of strong low level winds.&nbsp; One of the main 
features which we lack in Australia is the strong moisture laden low level winds 
which help provide that added shear.&nbsp; Yes, the coastal areas get their 
NE'lys which bring in the moist air but rarely are they travelling at speeds of 
any consequence.&nbsp; To make a comparison to the US, they often get surface 
(note the term surface)winds of 25-30knt (if not more)&nbsp;providing food for 
their&nbsp;hungry storms.&nbsp; This is generated by the strong low pressure 
systems which park themselves&nbsp;over W and NW states, providing 
the&nbsp;tight pressure gradient.&nbsp; In&nbsp;Australia (along the E coast to 
be more specific), NE'lys would normally be as a result of a trough sitting 
inland and usually this will not be deep enough to generate surface flow of more 
than 15knts.&nbsp; The few cases in Australia which has seen&nbsp;strong surface 
flow has resulted in tornadic supercells along the E seaboard (not necesarrily 
the coast).&nbsp; The three examples I refer to are 1st January 1970 
(Buladelah), 4th November 1973 (Brisbane) and 29th September 1996 (NSW).&nbsp; 
In all three events, a deep surface low was present, promoting the tight 
pressure gradient and generating the resultant strong low level winds.&nbsp; I 
may one day get around to doing a more in depth study of events such as these 
(as I'm sure there are many more examples of these synoptic set-ups) but time is 
a limiting factor at the moment.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As for David's comment regarding the fact that the 
prime areas of severe storms has been well covered - I disagree with this 
statement.&nbsp; I don't beleive that the small number of chasers we have here 
in Australia and the large areas considered "prime" have been covered thoroughly 
at all.&nbsp; In just the past 12 months there has been many a time where a 
handful of the chasers have sat and watched massive cells (pure speculation 
based on radar and satellite observations) from their computers and 
commented..."geeze I wish I was under that cell" OR "wouldn't it be nice to be 
in Murwillumbah right now".&nbsp; Unfortunately, many (if not all) chasers are 
restricted to when and where they chase due to work, family and other 
committments.&nbsp; The only times when a majority of the storms on the E 
seaboard are watched closely is when the Thunder Down Under crew is out and 
about.&nbsp; It is this 3 week period when you can (almost) safely say the 
chasers are likely, on any given day, to be in the area which would be "prime" 
for that day's storms.&nbsp; Yes, there are still times when distance and other 
factors (such as floods) can restrict where we chase on these trips and becuase 
of this events will be missed.&nbsp; This was the case on the Thunder Down Under 
trip in late November 2000.&nbsp; On the 22nd of November, we chased between 
Emerald and Alpha (a few hundred km W of Rockhampton) and saw some awesome 
storms.&nbsp; On the 23rd we had a dilema as&nbsp;heavy rains earlier in the 
month had cut a few roads further W&nbsp;but the trough which had help kick off 
the storms from the previous day was expected to retreat inland.&nbsp; With a 
strong jet aloft and high dew points (into the mid 20's) so far inland we were 
very tempted to head out even further W and chase in the Longreach area with the 
chance of some severe storms for the next few days.&nbsp; On the other hand we 
had to consider the chance of being stranded in Longreach if more rain was to 
further increase water in the already flooded area and also the fact that we may 
put ourselves a long way out of the way for the next system which was forecast 
to come through in 4 more days in S NSW.&nbsp; Unfortunately, we decided not to 
risk being stranded and never headed out towards Longreach, yet on the 24th of 
November, the Bureau of Meteorology recieved a report of "large funnel shaped 
cloud on the ground" (ie tornado) just 35km SW of Longreach.&nbsp; Now i'm not 
saying that we would've seen this - this is not my point.&nbsp; My point is, is 
that chasers cannot be everywhere where it is primed for big storms.&nbsp; 
Another example of this can be seen by looking at the last 16 months in 
Victoria.&nbsp; There have been at least 8 confirmed tornadoes here of which 
only 1 was seen by a chaser, yet on all except one of the days when a tornado 
was reported, several chasers were out in the field.&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>At the end of the last Victorian ASWA meeting, I 
had a brief chat with Harald Richter about the differences of chasing in 
Australia and the US and one thing which has stuck in my mind was the comment 
that in Australia, a lot of chasing is based on luck.&nbsp; I cannot emphasise 
enough how true I think this is.&nbsp; Given our limited weather data resources 
and access to real-time weather information whilst out in the field on top of 
the topography and road network in Australia, it is amazing how much luck comes 
into play.&nbsp; When you think that the avergae tornado lasts less than 10 
minutes, the probability of being in the right place and the right time and 
under the right storm is amazingly minute.&nbsp; Given the lack of understanding 
in how one storm becomes tornadic over another, it is amazing that chasers 
ANYWHERE (whether it be in the US, Germany, Australia or New Zealand or anywhere 
else) see tornadoes.&nbsp; How do they do this?&nbsp; They do this by reducing 
the luck factor.&nbsp; They look at what limited information they may have and 
they position themselves in the area which, given the current understanding of 
severe storms, is most likely to have the most severe storms on a particular 
day.&nbsp; They also position themselves near/under the biggest or most intense 
thunderstorm chaseable in that particular area.&nbsp; Not only this, they 
position themselves on the side of the storm which is most likely to produce a 
tornado.&nbsp; Immediately they are giving themselves a better chance at seeing 
a tornado than someone who is sitting on the wrong side of the dryline/trough 
line or someone sitting at home in their loungeroom.&nbsp; The more often they 
do this, the more the probablility increases that they will see a tornado.&nbsp; 
They have siginifcantly reduced the "luck" factor almost to the extent where IF 
the storm does produce a tornado, they will see it.&nbsp; It comes down to the 
individual storm.&nbsp; I guess what I am trying to say is that given the 
circumstances facing chasers in Australia, I think we are doing an excellent job 
in increasing our chances of seeing tornadoes (and other severe weather 
associated with thunderstorms). And in the process of doing this, also 
increasing the awareness of both the Bureau of Meteorology and the general 
public of the frequency of severe storms in Australia, ultimately in the hope 
that it will benefit these people (being the public) in the long term.&nbsp; 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Enough from me.&nbsp; Terribly sorry if anyone 
get's in trouble for falling asleep at the computer.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Andrew McDonald.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>---- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:wxbustchase at hotmail.com" title=wxbustchase at hotmail.com>David 
  Croan</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, April 30, 2001 12:46 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near 
  Junee &amp; Vic Rain </DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;The point about supercell research being mostly based on 
  the US </DIV>
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;experience 
  <DIV></DIV>&gt;&gt;is valid. I do personally believe we have a slightly 
  different 
  <DIV></DIV>
  <P>&gt;&gt;animal. </P>
  <DIV>
  <DIV>I agree Michael and I suppose this argument could be used anywhere in the 
  world. I think the US is quite unique in that it seems so ideally located and 
  geographically configured for&nbsp;'the' animal. To me Australia is not, and 
  I'm not sure thatwe have a&nbsp;severe storm 'set -up' any better than South 
  America or even Africa. I believe we have a less ideal setup&nbsp;than China, 
  and other parts of Asia (Bangladesh for example).</DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Based on the efforts of chasers over the last several years, in my view 
  it is quite telling that no&nbsp;supercells with rapidly rotating wall clouds, 
  or even the dramatic base structure which is the hallmark of the US storms, 
  have been caught on video. We get giant hail,&nbsp;we get 100+ mph straight 
  line&nbsp;winds and monster 18+ km high storms.&nbsp;But we&nbsp;seem to get 
  very few storms that exhibit strong rotation at the lower levels, something 
  that I believe will be confirmed over the coming years. </DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>It is still early days as far as Australian chasing goes, but my 
  suspicion is that the prime areas have been well covered by chasers now. I 
  know great storms will continue to be caught on video although i think the 
  tornadoes will continue to be few and far between.&nbsp;In comparison to the 
  US, I think&nbsp;it is quite obvious that they get more&nbsp;supercells than 
  Australia and many more tornadic supercells. </DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>Based on my armchair observations over the last few years, a typical 
  spring period in the US sees instability persisting over much broader areas 
  than Australia, is more extreme and of course both speed and dierctional 
  windshear is much better. Still we get our fair share and as a storm chaser 
  rather than a tornado chaser, I for one am not dissapointed with what we get! 
  </DIV></DIV>
  <DIV><BR clear=all>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV>&lt;end&gt;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Vorticity WA.
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:28:28 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 May 2001 12:28:26.0580 (UTC) FILETIME=[38981140:01C0D23A]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all.
Some impressive vorticity north of Kalgoorlie tonight, looks like some good
rainfall in that area and embedded storms too.Also a very nice looking low
over the Tasman, interestingly this Tasman Sea low can in part be traced
back to a small wave low that developed along a weakening cold front a few
days ago over Victoria and then moved into the Tasman to be enhanced by some
pre existing vorticity in that area.
            regards Clyve Herbert.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:50:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Jimmy and all,

All valid points have been discussed here so far but I'd like to keep this
particular email restricted to just 1 comment made by Jimmy.

Note this email contains some humor as well as a serious aspect.

Quote "Unfortunately, we do not have the "needs" for such research to take
place"

 I think the "need" will come from an initial trigger.  Unfortunately this
trigger, as we have seen in the past, will have to be a significant event
and in this case it WILL be by a strong tornado (actually....a tornado that
takes several lives) passing through a populated area (most likely a captial
city).  There will then be 2 main driving forces behind the push for more
in-depth research and that will be the general public and the insurance
companies (and a 3rd if you include us storm chasers....hehe).  It will then
come down to the government (which I hope Anthony Cornelius is the Prime
Minister of Australia by then so he can just give us an open cheque book to
work with) and then we'll all be paid to chase 24/7 for 52 weeks a year (who
needs holidays if you can chase chase chase....).

But you can see what I'm getting at here in that the government will not see
the need for such funds to be given to the BoM until an unfortuante event
takes place.

Regards,

Macca




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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain 
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:47:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some good points made by Andrew. I particularly 
agree with the fact that the only time we serious chase as a group without time 
and distance boundaries is on the thunder downunder annual meets.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Last years TDU2K was great, but was the weather pattern 
anything unusual. In fact it was pretty settled and marginal on many days. I 
cannot wait until TDU chase hits a major system like the ones Andrew describes. 
TDU in its years has yet to hit some areas like Gympie and the area, and we all 
know that&nbsp;area can go off with tornadoes. I just can't wait until we get to 
those areas.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Another point that David mentioned is that most of us chase 
just to experience good storms. For me a bust is when I put down serious 
kilometres and do not see lightning. Even a pissy pulse storm with 2 bolts and 
0.2mm of rain is NOT a bust. I am happy just to get that.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hail, downbursts, massive gusters make a great chase. A 
tornado would be nice, but if that was my sole goal, well I am in the wrong 
business.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT 
  size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:10:25 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Phil, Jimmy and others,

I think you have raised an interesting point here Phil.  I have spoken to
people in the past of classifying eastern states thunderstorms into two
completely separate categories (yet as usual there are exceptions to these
and combinations of the two).

The first category being the "coastal storms" where the storms usually breed
on the ranges and then move off the ranges to affect coastal areas.  Due to
their proximity to the coast, these storms breed in mositure laden
environments with surface dewpoints consistently hitting 20C and above, yet
surface temperatures in these conditions rarely exceeds 33C.  This mositure
will often give these "coastal storms" the low based, HP appearance and in
the case of a funnel forming, you would expect the condensation level to be
at such a point where a significant portion of the funnel is visible (if not
engulfed in rain).

The second category is the "inland storms" where the storms breed W of the
ranges in air which is regularly significantly drier than that of the
coastal areas.  Dewpoints in the 12-18C range are far more likely and
surface temperatures are more likely to be in the 35-38C range, giving these
"inland storms" the higher base and in the case of a funnel forming the
higher condensation level would lead to the expectation that the
condensation funnel would be only partly visibile (if at all).  I know there
is the factor that high-based storms can have locally lowered LCL's but
given a general situation you would still expect the LCL to be lower in
these conditions than in the circumstances of the "coastal storms"
situation.

Its an interesting question to pose.  Perhaps another point to keep an eye
on in future chases/observations.

Regards,

Andrew McDonald


----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 6:29 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain


> Hi Phil,
>
> There certainly is truth in what you say. Most of the tornadoes/possible
> tornadoes have been observed without the so-called typical text book
funnel
> reaching the ground. Good point made but I suppose time will tell what is
> observed in the future.
>
> The time when I stopped to think about what is observed here as compared
to
> the US is when I saw chasers referring to wall clouds that didn't even
look
> like such. I mean i nice circular base rotating either slightly or
rapidly.
> Well, when I observe small prongs in videos, I found myself reflecting
back
> on my photos only to find very similar examples.
>
> An example might come in handy here:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall01.htm   refer to the
> wall cloud pics 3/4 way down the page with Riverstone and Rooty Hill
listed
> on the same storm. If you doubt this, I have seen US examples and these
> were rotating (I think anti-cyclonically but I couldn't be sure) and the
> storm had a very strong updraught.
>
> Also
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1204jd12.jpg
now
> this one would not even qualify in most people's book but it rotated
> anti-cyclonically and was maintained for over 20 minutes but obviously was
> never going to do anything.
>
> And this:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd04.jpg
>
> Yes it was underneath the main updraught and eventually became this later
on:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd14.jpg
>
> Quite interesting.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 04:05 PM 1/05/01 +0930, you wrote:
> ><snip fascinating discussion>
> >
> >Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
> >tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
> >supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
> >differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
> >supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
> >the lay public, condensation funnels?  If for some reason [higher
> >condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of
aussie
> >vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
> >debris swirl if they touched down.  Hardly your average wedge that people
> >are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was
right
> >in front of them for what it was.
> >
> >Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.
> >
> >Phil
> >
> >Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> >- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
> >        "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..."   Noel Coward
> >
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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>  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain 
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:23:07 +1000
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Michael and all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Yep I agree, I too can't wait to roam the 
Australian country looking for storms on the next national chase,same with me 
even a distant anvil makes me very happy especially when its not supposed to be 
there. I have always said ..its only a matter of time&nbsp;before we get on the 
back end of an F3 and all our dreams will be answered,but if your like me one 
wont be enough!. regards Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:michaelt at ozemail.com.au" title=michaelt at ozemail.com.au>Michael 
  Thompson</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:47 
PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near 
  Junee &amp; Vic Rain </DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Some good points made by Andrew. I particularly 
  agree with the fact that the only time we serious chase as a group without 
  time and distance boundaries is on the thunder downunder annual 
  meets.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Last years TDU2K was great, but was the weather pattern 
  anything unusual. In fact it was pretty settled and marginal on many days. I 
  cannot wait until TDU chase hits a major system like the ones Andrew 
  describes. TDU in its years has yet to hit some areas like Gympie and the 
  area, and we all know that&nbsp;area can go off with tornadoes. I just can't 
  wait until we get to those areas.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Another point that David mentioned is that most of us chase 
  just to experience good storms. For me a bust is when I put down serious 
  kilometres and do not see lightning. Even a pissy pulse storm with 2 bolts and 
  0.2mm of rain is NOT a bust. I am happy just to get that.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Hail, downbursts, massive gusters make a great chase. A 
  tornado would be nice, but if that was my sole goal, well I am in the wrong 
  business.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT size=2>Michael</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px"><FONT 
    size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 23:30:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Some funnel pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/funnel02.htm

Towards the bottom, kindly donated to us are some funnel pics.

Great to see others getting these funnels and I haven't seen a waterspout. 
I have seen pissy dust - devils and NO it's not cause I am too small to see....

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 00:05:13 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer <mjd at iinet.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win95; U)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA Storms 22/04/01 & A very cloase Lighting Strike
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Robert, and All.

    Well on closer examination of it there were three green ( will call it a
possible glitch(s) for now ), Yes we seen the one that was further to the left
relative to the other two and the ground. Which could indeed be streamers, but
it could also be interference from the charge build up before and during the
resulting Lightning Strike and it's separate pulses after the main strike. As
on any Digital Camera whether it be a Video Camera, SLR or a normal Compact
Digital Still Camera, they all take the Picture(s) via there CCD's ( Charged
Coupled Device ).
    So it's charge may have been interrupted or interfered with by the
proximity to the Lightning Discharge, and the Stepped Leader that came of the
Tree only  8 - 10 Metres to our right and slightly behind us. But in saying
that you would think that these Camera's more so with the real expensive ones
would have adequate Magnetic shielding ect... to help guard against such
Interference.

MJ.

Robert Goler wrote:

> That was absolutely fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Also, are there 2 of those streamers coming up from below the camera?
>
> Look at the large movie
>
> http://www.dsw.au.com/videos/042201lg.mpg
>
> and check out frames 198 for the brighter one and 204 for the dimmer one.
> These precede the brightest part of the lightning strike by 3 frames for
> the first one (brightest flash comes in frame 201) while the second comes
> 1 frame before the brightest flash. Also, the second one appears slightly
> more to the left of the first judging by its position relative to the
> ground.
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 10:37:05 -0700
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Hi Anthony,

I think i misundersttod your initial statment as you were clearly siting
that a large SRH can produce tornadic supercells with small CAPE, so long as
the CAPE is above a certain level. But i interpretted it as a 'proportional
argument' such that, at the extreme, very large SRH with zero CAPE could
produce a tornado - clearly not.

I like the car example! Do you know that Traffic Engineers actually use
fluid dynamic equations is their models - so it's a very accute observation
you made ;)

As a clarity note, when you talk about 'instability' and 'bouyancy' due to
diffluence aloft and convergence zones, i know you realise this is dynamic
modes rather than thermodynamic but for other people reading this message,
it should be noted that these are two different forcings producing a similar
effect.

Cheers, Lyle



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)


> Hi Lyle,
>
> Shear in itself can actually create instability.  For example, strong
> diffluent or divergent jets actually cause a lower pressure around
> them.  This is because more air is leaving the jet then enterting that
> certain area.  (An analogy of this is actually something I've observed
> at Withcott on the Warrego Hwy :)  Towards Withcott from Toowoomba, the
> speed limit drops from 100 to 60, all the cars converge on each other
> and bunch up as faster cars come from behind and slow down - there's
> always people waiting near Withcott to join the highway, it's harder for
> them here because there's lots of cars enterting.  Just on the east side
> if Withcott, the speed limit goes from 60 to 100, the cars first to hit
> the 100 sign accelerate away from the cars behind them - leaving space
> for cars to join the highway.  Motto of this, you'll save time in busy
> traffic trying to merge onto the highway on the east side of Withcott
> heading east :-)  But it's the same in jets - with more air leaving the
> region then enterting it (by region I mean over a small area of space,
> ie several km/tens of km), this causes a low pressure region and air
> below it moves upward to replace it.
>
> Diffluent jets have a similar effect - just think of lots of cars
> leaving the highway due to lots of exits, and there's a lot more room
> for other cars to join.  IE - more air is leaving the area then entering
> it, creating low pressure.  So this helps in adding buoyancy to the
> updraft.  In high shear situations, low CAPE could prevail - but the
> effects of an upper level trough/low and diffluent/divergent shear in
> the mid-upper levels can assist in "pulling" an updraft (it doesn't
> really pull though).  I think high shear situations tend to be stronger
> in winter as the jets are lower, so their impact is felt stronger in the
> lower levels.  A strong cold front, or even the convergence zone on the
> coast due to wind friction (less friction on water than land), helps act
> as a forcing mechanism.
>
> AC
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > Hi Anthony,
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> >
> > > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > > the shear is "right."  I think one of the most interesting
correlations
> > > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted
on
> > > it for a certain region.  The higher the CAPE (measure of
instability),
> > > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a
combination
> > > of these two with a scaling factor).
> > >
> >
> > I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires
high
> > CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle
> >
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100 (BST)
From: Andrew Boskell <a_boskell at yahoo.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G’day All,

There has basically been no weather in Tassie for 2
weeks. For just over a week, there has been light
winds and almost cloud free skies – well a least along
the NW Coast any way. It looks like the weather is on
annual leave down here. Oh well, it makes for pleasant
days I guess!


=====
Andrew Boskell

"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"

____________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
or your free  at yahoo.ie address at http://mail.yahoo.ie
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X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 10:32:49 +1000
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<x-flowed>
Hi Jonty and all,

Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.

Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know 
Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes in 
1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about 
November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a monster 
of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these were even 
part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when major 
tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some very 
impressive stuff.

However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of this 
list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout, though 
I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to such obvious 
potent large scale weather systems.  As a consequence though, I do often 
wonder how rare are these storm systems
and their progeny are in Australia?

I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on 
from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest 
that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite 
right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of 
tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to 
suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my 
own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective 
reality.

A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics, 
central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again 
judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over 
the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in 
terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen 
often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont be 
happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and does 
happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well quite 
well chased in recent years, and given that the population density is not 
all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am suprised that 
nothing significant  (tornado or
decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the eastern 
US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative abundance 
of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought that this 
'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not ideal' shear 
conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or longer lived 
variety. Again you and some others on the list are much better qualified 
than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based on my own 
observations and the limited data available.

All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is 
limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of course 
it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any reasonable 
study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major tornado 
disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took an 
interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography / 
topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these 
monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes 
is the question.


_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.

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</x-flowed>
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From: "Daniel Lester" <lester_daniel at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 12:22:41 +1000
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<x-html>
<html><DIV>
<P>Andrew, </P>
<P>Better get used to it as the pattern is pretty&nbsp;much set to continue until Tuesday next week. Then some showery colder weather should move in to liven things up.</P>
<P>Daniel&nbsp;<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Andrew Boskell <A_BOSKELL at YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100 (BST) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;G’day All, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;There has basically been no weather in Tassie for 2 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;weeks. For just over a week, there has been light 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;winds and almost cloud free skies – well a least along 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the NW Coast any way. It looks like the weather is on 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;annual leave down here. Oh well, it makes for pleasant 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;days I guess! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;===== 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Andrew Boskell 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!" 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;____________________________________________________________ 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Do You Yahoo!? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Get your free  at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;or your free  at yahoo.ie address at http://mail.yahoo.ie 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ 
<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>
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Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 15:02:40 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Hi David and all,

My feelings also are of that very nature: why hasn't a "major" tornado 
struck a populated area of Sydney. Now, I feel that looking into the Bureau 
database, you can find accounts of more major tornadic activity. But not 
only has it been quiet since in the past few years (Michael Bath and I have 
chased since 1993) but I feel based on storm patterns, it has been quiet 
for a lot longer with fewer tornadoes being reported in the past 20 years. 
Now although the Sydney area which really is a small area when you talk 
about tornadic occurrences, I believe that it does not represent the 
eastern side and nor do I think it represents the coastline. Well not at 
the moment. Other areas north of Sydney even along the coast tend to 
observe far more serious storms on a more regular occurrence and thence 
would have a higher probability of producing a tornado. Inland is a 
different kettle of fish. Even based on surface lifted index patterns to 
give an estimate of areas of instability, Sydney has not been able to match 
it with other parts of the state. I know the list jumps up and down when it 
does occur. (Please note in my arguments I don't consider for my own 
preference the waterspout tornadoes as the tornadoes from the supercell 
spectrum. I know in a study by Bart Geerts and someone else, they suggest 
that tornado frequencies approach some of the tornado alley states here in 
Sydney but he included the waterspouts which by definition are called 
tornados once on land)

David, I again cannot emphasise strongly enough that we have only touched 
the surface in chasing storms the last couple of years. Perhaps we have 
done more in this season than the previous and we shall continue to do so. 
Surely we have gone right around northern NSW and SE Qld, Victoria and also 
Adelaide region and SWA. But because of distances and work commitments as 
Andrew has suggested, we have not been able to chase on the days we really 
would have liked. And like I said, when someone chases and gets a tornado 
of significance, I can tell you that it would represent a significant find. 
In other words, getting an F3 here would be like chasing and getting an F5 
in the US and just as significant in my books. To me, a storm that produces 
an F3 is very significant as I have seen storms producing F5' in the US 
with a variety of damage paths varying usually from F3 to F5 along its most 
damaging paths.

Anyway, this is one healthy debate with some interesting points of view 
coming through. Another point I would like to add is that the US tends to 
have particular days when they can record 50 or so tornadoes or lets say 
well in the tens. Often these are the days most referred to on websites 
with the major tornadoes. So the most significant events tend to be 
highlighted in such a way that if one is not careful, it is almost presumed 
it was a different day. I know that is not the case with you David and 
others but I know when I first started looking through Storm Track, it 
certainly gave me that impression until I started to read the dates of the 
events. On a similar note, and one event comes to mind which was the 10th 
November 1997. I observed a wall cloud whilst on the same day, Paul Yole 
observed one and also suggested that somewhere towards the east of 
Victoria, a tornado was reported. That day was an outbreak and I believe 
the many storms that developed did develop in an ideal situation for severe 
storms that were sufficiently isolated that wall clouds would have been 
reported from quite a few storms. Now that was a storm system. I have 
provided for those of us who don't recall it some satpic examples. Looking 
back at it, it is also worth while for those in SA and WA to observe the 
satpics. They are listed at:

http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/9711/

Even if you are bored with my rambling on, please look.

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1997/docs/9711-01.htm  here is 
my link for the report on the day. You read the report and you would not 
think much of it....

I know it is wishful thinking, but I still maintain what we would see if 
someone got a bulldozer and opened up a 5km grid road network throughout 
the inland and we chased more regularly. I really feel it is a matter of 
time so be patient.

Anyway, I have things to do and keep rambling on... Keep this thread going.


Jimmy Deguara
At 10:32 AM 2/05/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Jonty and all,
>
>Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.
>
>Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know 
>Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes 
>in 1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about 
>November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a 
>monster of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these 
>were even part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when 
>major tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some 
>very impressive stuff.
>
>However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of 
>this list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout, 
>though I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to 
>such obvious potent large scale weather systems.  As a consequence though, 
>I do often wonder how rare are these storm systems
>and their progeny are in Australia?
>
>I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
>than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
>lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on 
>from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
>generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
>therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest 
>that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite 
>right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of 
>tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to 
>suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my 
>own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective 
>reality.
>
>A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics, 
>central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again 
>judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over 
>the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in 
>terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen 
>often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont 
>be happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and 
>does happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well 
>quite well chased in recent years, and given that the population density 
>is not all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am 
>suprised that nothing significant  (tornado or
>decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the 
>eastern US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative 
>abundance of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought 
>that this 'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not 
>ideal' shear conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or 
>longer lived variety. Again you and some others on the list are much 
>better qualified than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based 
>on my own observations and the limited data available.
>
>All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is 
>limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of 
>course it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any 
>reasonable study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major 
>tornado disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took 
>an interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography / 
>topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these 
>monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes 
>is the question.
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 07:44:49 +0100 (BST)
From: Andrew Boskell <a_boskell at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Daniel,

Oh well, we could do with some more rain....don't know
about cold though! Lucky I brought a new jumper the
other day. Winter, here we come....

Andrew.
--- Daniel Lester <lester_daniel at hotmail.com> wrote: 
<HR>
<html><DIV>
<P>Andrew, </P>
<P>Better get used to it as the pattern is
pretty&nbsp;much set to continue until Tuesday next
week. Then some showery colder weather should move in
to liven things up.</P>
<P>Daniel&nbsp;<BR><BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Andrew Boskell
<A_BOSKELL at YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on
annual leave. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100
(BST) 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;G’day All, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;There has basically been no weather in
Tassie for 2 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;weeks. For just over a week, there has
been light 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;winds and almost cloud free skies –
well a least along 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the NW Coast any way. It looks like the
weather is on 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;annual leave down here. Oh well, it
makes for pleasant 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;days I guess! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;===== 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Andrew Boskell 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;"Some people are weather wise, others
are otherwise!" 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;____________________________________________________________

<DIV></DIV>&gt;Do You Yahoo!? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Get your free  at yahoo.co.uk address at
http://mail.yahoo.co.uk 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;or your free  at yahoo.ie address at
http://mail.yahoo.ie 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; To unsubscribe from aussie-weather
send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; with "unsubscribe aussie-weather
your_email_address" in the body of your 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

<DIV></DIV><br clear=all><hr>Get Your Private, Free
E-mail from MSN Hotmail at <a
href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com</a>.<br></p></html>

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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


=====
Andrew Boskell

"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"

____________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free  at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
or your free  at yahoo.ie address at http://mail.yahoo.ie
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Major upper amplification - What's next ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 16:53:05 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4207.2601" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Noticed the latest QLD future prog calls for a 
'major upper amplification' and showers on late Sunday or by early Monday over 
SE QLD.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has left me hanging in suspense. What is going 
to happen ? The surface&nbsp;synoptic chart is a bit weird at the moment 
(typically autumn). I just can't see what a 'major upper amplification' will 
induce at this stage.&nbsp;</FONT>&nbsp;<FONT face=Arial size=2>Could it be 
suggesting the&nbsp;formation of an east coast low ? There is no strong high 
pressure area evident to the south that usually occurs when these happen 
?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What are your thoughts ? Please share.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Regards</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:02:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4207.2601" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Further to my previous question.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure 
systems. But is it also possible to consider that such a thing exists as a 
'blocking' low ?&nbsp;Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it 
appears to be dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south. 
A</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2>n examination of future MSL charts also suggests 
this.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same 
thing ?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Ta for now.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Simon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "The Weather Co." <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major upper amplification - What's next ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:21:13 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Hi Simon and all</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I would imagine that this policy outlook is being formed based 
on the EC model. This model certainly does call for a major upper 
amplification(ie a sharp upper trough amplifying over eastern Australia over the 
weekend). It has sub-550 thicknesses pushing into southern QLD by late Sunday 
with a 548 thickness cold pool north of Brisbane on Monday. In response to this 
sharp upper level feature, it develops a surface low south of New Caledonia and 
drifts it westward and deepens rapidly into Tuesday/Wednesday. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>None of the other models I have seen are going for this, 
although NGP does suggest a northwestward propagation of an offshoot of the low 
currently in the south Tasman Sea. I personally cannot see the EC situation 
coming off, and looks very similar to what this particular model was doing in 
the winter of 1999 with upper level troughs constantly amplifying strongly in 
the east and ECLs forming willy-nilly. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>All models would suggest some intensification of showers into 
early next week with the passage of the upper trough, but whether it is to the 
extent EC is going for I am not too convinced. Either way, it should be 
interesting to watch over the next few days of relatively "boring" 
weather.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Matt Pearce</FONT><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 17:30:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Simon,

I was always under the impression that a low causes a blocking high by
blocking the high, which blocks everything else...so a blocking low is
needed before a blocking high would be established...

AC

> Simon Clarke wrote:
> 
> Hi all
> 
> Further to my previous question.
> 
> We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure systems. But is it also
> possible to consider that such a thing exists as a 'blocking' low
> ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it appears to be
> dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south. An examination
> of future MSL charts also suggests this.
> 
> Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same thing ?
> 
> Ta for now.
> 
> Simon

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke" <nomis66 at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 18:29:41 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Anthony

So, I guess the low starts the blocking.

Not sure if the current low is an classical example though.

Still I think there is an interestring weather pattern (in a synoptic sense)
developing over the next few days (as per Weather Co. reply).

Thanks
Simon



----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius" <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 5:30 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?


> Hi Simon,
>
> I was always under the impression that a low causes a blocking high by
> blocking the high, which blocks everything else...so a blocking low is
> needed before a blocking high would be established...
>
> AC
>
> > Simon Clarke wrote:
> >
> > Hi all
> >
> > Further to my previous question.
> >
> > We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure systems. But is it also
> > possible to consider that such a thing exists as a 'blocking' low
> > ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it appears to be
> > dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south. An examination
> > of future MSL charts also suggests this.
> >
> > Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same thing ?
> >
> > Ta for now.
> >
> > Simon
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 18:40:41 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi David,

One of the points you raised was one of the angles I was coming at in
regard