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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: 11th December 1998 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Symmetrical Cyclones...
002 "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.co Cat 5 in Australia
003 Ira [jra at upnaway.com] My Tornado pics are up.
004 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and Adelaide
005 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
006 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and
007 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Australia's highest paid meteorological consultants
008 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] (no subject)
009 Jimmy Deguara [jimmydeguara at rocketmail.com] My Tornado pics are up.
010 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com] Canberra Obs 11/12/98
011 david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan) Sydney weekend + tv doc?
012 Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au] Cat 5 in Australia
013 Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au] sat pics
014 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Our cities rarely get it too hot...
015 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Our cities rarely get it too hot...
016 "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au] sat pics
017 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Accuracy Questioned?
018 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Sydney weekend + tv doc?
019 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Accuracy Questioned?
020 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au] Conversions
021 "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au] Thelma!!! What Happened??
022 "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com] Delays!!!!
023 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. Our cities rarely get it too hot...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aussie-weather: Symmetrical Cyclones...
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 13:27:32 -0800
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Hi Michael,
Views like the one you posted almost make the destructive power of both
cyclones be forgotten. I see Thelma's cloud-filled eye is just about on the
coast now. I do indeed hope everyone is prepared as there is no time left
to do so.
The last time we have seen a situation like this with two cyclones opposite
of each other in their respective hemisphere was last year at about this
time! Tropical Cyclone Paka developed in the Central Northern Pacific and
went on to become a Super Typhoon and ravage Guam. It had a twin (the name
of which escapes me at this time :-/) in the Southern Hemisphere as well.
These two were much closer to each other then Typhoon Faith and Cyclone
Themla are right now. In fact, a very well defined cross-equatorial flow
linked the two of them. It was an amazing sight to see...almost an
umbilical cord function it provides. That was my first tropical cyclone
cross-equatorial flow...a neat process anytime you see it. Have a good
one...and those in the path of Typhoon Faith, TD 25W, and Cyclone
Thelma...stay safe!
Paul Britton Jr.
wxguide on Undernet's #weather
>>-----Original Message-----
>>From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
>>[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
>>Scollay
>>Sent: Wednesday, December 09, 1998 11:29 PM
>>To: Aussie Weather
>>Subject: aussie-weather: Symmetrical Cyclones...
>>
>>
>>Take a look at;
>>
>>ftp://geo.msfc.nasa.gov/Weather/GMS-5/gif/vis/4km/9812100532.gif
>>
>>Rather big (1.7MB) but it shows two cyclones, one in the northern
>>hemisphere and the other, our beloved Thelma, in the southern
>>hemisphere. They are almost at the same longitude drawing their cloud
>>in an almost symmetrical way as well. A fascinating site and one which
>>shows just how unusual this season will prove to be.
>>
>>While I'm at it, lets hope that when Thelma hits land in the next day
>>or so, that it does so with enough warning to get people well out of
>>the vicinity:-(
>>
>>Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002
From: "Paul Britton Jr." [webmaster at weatherguide.com]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 13:20:52 -0800
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Good Day Brian,
Thanks for the kind words! Weather b/t ppl is too often like a boxing
match. :-/ (I hear Kangaroo's are a good for a round or two. :P) The good
will always outweigh the bad in my mind...even when it is obvious it
doesn't. The moment it doesn't...it can become very easy for one to loose
themself. It's a pleasure knowing you too...I'm glad to be apart of this
weather list! Do you ever come on #weather? If so, what is your nick..I'd
like to talk with you sometime.
Have a good one,
Paul Britton Jr.
>>
>>Hi Paul
>> I good to see someone down to Earth and honest like
>>yourself, It makes it
>>a lot more pleasurable to be part of a weather group. Its true
>>you get good and bad
>>whereever you go, but when the good out weighs bad is the very
>>reason we keep going,
>>its a pleasure to know you.
>>regards
>>Brian Wheldon Gembrook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 23:36:54 +0800
From: Ira [jra at upnaway.com]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: My Tornado pics are up.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Ive finally put my pics for my last chase and tornado up its at
http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html
Just click on the Dowerin report.
Some of the scans are a bit crappy casue i was in a rush so ill do some
better ones ASAP, but youll get the idea. If some pics are'nt working
they'll be the ones im rescanning. Its only a few.
What happened was some of my pics got moisture damage from the rain as i
was changing films while the tornado was happening. Curse the RFD. It
put red streaks through them. I've sent them to a place where they
reckon they can fix them and as soon as i get em back ill scan them and
put them up.
It was a wierd tornado with a wierd wall cloud. The cloud
wasnt all that high, i was farily close and looking up, pictures are
decieving. The wall cloud was weird. The pictures dont really show it
but the main source of rotation seemed to be obscured by other scud crap
clouds. I could kind of see it through this. At times. I tried to
explain this in my report but i find it difficult to put it to words
soemtimes. So many things go through your head, your trying to watch,
take pics, change films, avoid hail. Then later you try so hard to
remember what your saw that you forget. Then you get pics back and you
dont even know what the hell it was of, i took 108 pics. heheheeh.
Anyway must go talk to you all soon
Ira
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aussie-weather: A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and Adelaide
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather), d.jones at bom.gov.au
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 11:17:50 +1100 (EST)
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A few milestones to keep an eye on today given the forecast:
Melbourne
39.1 Highest for December 11 (1975)
39.5 Highest for December since 1980 (39.4, 31/12/1990)
40.0 First 40+ in December since 1980
41.5 Highest for December since 1953 (41.4, 10/12/1980)
42.2 Highest for December this century (42.1, 20/12/1953)
43.1 Highest on record so early in summer (43.0, 5/12/1898)
43.8 December record (43.7, 15/12/1876)
Interestingly, the five highest December temperatures are all in the
19th century.
Adelaide
(using both Kent Town and West Terrace records, but using the
Stevenson screen record from the latter, not the Glaisher stand)
40.0 First 40+ in December since 1987
40.8 Highest for December since 1981 (40.7, 14/12/1987)
41.3 Highest for December 11 (1975)
42.1 Highest for December since 1941 (42.0, 30/12/1981)
42.2 Highest for December since 1939 (42.1, 13/12/1941)
42.7 Highest for December since 1931 (42.6, 28/12/1939)
42.8 Highest on record so early in summer (42.7, 30/11/1962 and
5/12/1925)
44.0 Highest for December since 1904 (43.9, 29/12/1931)
44.3 December record (44.2, 31/12/1904)
Also worth watching Melbourne's record minima for tonight:
26.7 Highest December 24-hour minimum (26.6, 7/12/1994)
27.7 Highest December overnight minimum (27.6, 1961 - note that
this would also have been a 24-hour minimum on the current
standard of 0900-0900 observations, but not on the then
standard of midnight-midnight)
30.6 Highest on record for any month (30.5, 1/2/1902)
The 0900 temperature was 32.1, so the reset temperature won't get in
the way.
Currently (1100 Eastern, 1030 Central) 36.1 in Melbourne, 38 in
Adelaide.
Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express for Macintosh - 4.01 (295)
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 12:00:30 +1100
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and
Adelaide
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Cc: Dave Williams
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Blair
It sounds like you are more into climatology than most so you can probably
comment on this better than I.
I have noticed in the literature that considerable doubt has been placed on
the temperature readings of last century. Remember the controversy regarding
the study which concluded that the Cloncurry record was dodgy! In fact it
would appear that all pre stevenson screen temperature records could well be
dodgy by today's standards.
A scatter plot of some of these 19th century temps visually shows what a
statistical analysis proves. That these temperatures are very unlikely to
ever be exceeded using modern measurement standards.
Do you have any thoughts on this? Should in fact we be using these
"in-compatible" temperature records for the purposes of comparison?
Mark
----------
>From: Blair Trewin
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather), d.jones at bom.gov.au
>Subject: aussie-weather: A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and Adelaide
>Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 11:17
>
>A few milestones to keep an eye on today given the forecast:
>
>Melbourne
>
>39.1 Highest for December 11 (1975)
>39.5 Highest for December since 1980 (39.4, 31/12/1990)
>40.0 First 40+ in December since 1980
>41.5 Highest for December since 1953 (41.4, 10/12/1980)
>42.2 Highest for December this century (42.1, 20/12/1953)
>43.1 Highest on record so early in summer (43.0, 5/12/1898)
>43.8 December record (43.7, 15/12/1876)
>
>Interestingly, the five highest December temperatures are all in the
>19th century.
>
>Adelaide
>
>(using both Kent Town and West Terrace records, but using the
>Stevenson screen record from the latter, not the Glaisher stand)
>
>40.0 First 40+ in December since 1987
>40.8 Highest for December since 1981 (40.7, 14/12/1987)
>41.3 Highest for December 11 (1975)
>42.1 Highest for December since 1941 (42.0, 30/12/1981)
>42.2 Highest for December since 1939 (42.1, 13/12/1941)
>42.7 Highest for December since 1931 (42.6, 28/12/1939)
>42.8 Highest on record so early in summer (42.7, 30/11/1962 and
> 5/12/1925)
>44.0 Highest for December since 1904 (43.9, 29/12/1931)
>44.3 December record (44.2, 31/12/1904)
>
>Also worth watching Melbourne's record minima for tonight:
>
>26.7 Highest December 24-hour minimum (26.6, 7/12/1994)
>27.7 Highest December overnight minimum (27.6, 1961 - note that
> this would also have been a 24-hour minimum on the current
> standard of 0900-0900 observations, but not on the then
> standard of midnight-midnight)
>30.6 Highest on record for any month (30.5, 1/2/1902)
>
>The 0900 temperature was 32.1, so the reset temperature won't get in
>the way.
>
>Currently (1100 Eastern, 1030 Central) 36.1 in Melbourne, 38 in
>Adelaide.
>
>Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: A few marks to keep an eye on in Melbourne and
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 12:15:27 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
> Blair
>
> It sounds like you are more into climatology than most so you can probably
> comment on this better than I.
>
> I have noticed in the literature that considerable doubt has been placed on
> the temperature readings of last century. Remember the controversy regarding
> the study which concluded that the Cloncurry record was dodgy! In fact it
> would appear that all pre stevenson screen temperature records could well be
> dodgy by today's standards.
>
> A scatter plot of some of these 19th century temps visually shows what a
> statistical analysis proves. That these temperatures are very unlikely to
> ever be exceeded using modern measurement standards.
>
> Do you have any thoughts on this? Should in fact we be using these
> "in-compatible" temperature records for the purposes of comparison?
I believe that Melbourne, at least, has been using a Stevenson screen
since well back into the 19th century, although I don't have a source
for the actual date. (December is the only summer month which shows
such a dominance of 19th century observations - the other summer
records are November (1911), January (1939), February (1983), March
(1940).
The point, though, is a very valid one (and I'm probably a good
person to comment on this as the author of the Cloncurry paper). The
Cloncurry record had problems over and above simply having a non-
standard screen; if one looks at long-term records, it's rare to
find one without an inhomogeneity of some kind, and this needs to
be adjusted for in studies of climate change, for example. (This
can arise from instrumental change, or, more commonly these days,
site changes).
My own view is that if a change at a site results in a mean temperature
change there of < ~1 C, I'd view records as 'acceptable' from the
public weather point of view (although not for scientific study
without adjustment). The maxima at Melbourne and Adelaide meet this
criterion; many other sites do not pre-1910.
Adelaide is quite an interesting case. Dual records were kept using
a Glaisher stand and Stevenson screen for about 60 years (~1887-1947).
The Stevenson screen records are the ones currently in the NCC
database, but the Glaisher stand ones were viewed as 'official' at
the time. The widely quoted Adelaide record high of 47.6 is a
Glaisher stand observation - the Stevenson screen recorded 46.1. This
will make for some fun and games if and when there is a day between
46.1 and 47.6!
Of course, the minimum temperature records in Sydney and Melbourne
will take a lot of breaking because of urbanisation. In particular,
I doubt that Melbourne's -2.8 is going to fall this side of the next
Ice Age. (Laverton, which is very similarly situated in terms of
topography and distance from the sea, recorded ~-4.5 in 1982, but
Melbourne only got -0.7).
Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aussie-weather: Australia's highest paid meteorological consultants
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 12:17:45 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
We now know who Australia's highest-paid meteorological consultant
is: it seems that Mark Waugh can command $6000 per forecast.
I wonder if we can sign him up for AMOS?
Blair Trewin
P.S. A colleague at the SA Regional Office said that they have had
no calls at all from Indian bookmakers this time - maybe they've
been scared off by the publicity :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express for Macintosh - 4.01 (295)
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 12:33:05 +1100
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australia's highest paid meteorological
consultants
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Ha ha
I remember during my time in the Sydney BoM the phones would run hot
whenever there was an international cricket match in town. On some days we
would get over 40 calls a day from the sub-continent ( mostly from Bombay).
If only I had known the advice was so valuable......
----------
>From: Blair Trewin
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
>Subject: aussie-weather: Australia's highest paid meteorological consultants
>Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 12:17
>
>We now know who Australia's highest-paid meteorological consultant
>is: it seems that Mark Waugh can command $6000 per forecast.
>
>I wonder if we can sign him up for AMOS?
>
>Blair Trewin
>
>P.S. A colleague at the SA Regional Office said that they have had
>no calls at all from Indian bookmakers this time - maybe they've
>been scared off by the publicity :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 17:42:22 -0800 (PST)
From: Jimmy Deguara [jimmydeguara at rocketmail.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: My Tornado pics are up.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I just looked at the chase report. Very interesting
and quite down to earth. Nice pics. can't wait until
the other ones come in
jimmy
---Ira wrote:
>
> Hi all,
> Ive finally put my pics for my last chase
and tornado up its at
> http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html
>
> Just click on the Dowerin report.
>
> Some of the scans are a bit crappy casue i was in a
rush so ill do some
> better ones ASAP, but youll get the idea. If some
pics are'nt working
> they'll be the ones im rescanning. Its only a few.
> What happened was some of my pics got moisture
damage from the rain as i
> was changing films while the tornado was happening.
Curse the RFD. It
> put red streaks through them. I've sent them to a
place where they
> reckon they can fix them and as soon as i get em
back ill scan them and
> put them up.
> It was a wierd tornado with a wierd wall cloud.
The cloud
> wasnt all that high, i was farily close and looking
up, pictures are
> decieving. The wall cloud was weird. The pictures
dont really show it
> but the main source of rotation seemed to be
obscured by other scud crap
> clouds. I could kind of see it through this. At
times. I tried to
> explain this in my report but i find it difficult
to put it to words
> soemtimes. So many things go through your head,
your trying to watch,
> take pics, change films, avoid hail. Then later you
try so hard to
> remember what your saw that you forget. Then you
get pics back and you
> dont even know what the hell it was of, i took 108
pics. heheheeh.
>
> Anyway must go talk to you all soon
> Ira
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010
X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.20]
From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Canberra Obs 11/12/98
Date: Thu, 10 Dec 1998 19:14:16 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone,
A good smattering of Cu congestus has developed in all directions from
around 12.00pm AEDST. Whilst not appearing to be "capped", individual
cells are tending to dissipate once getting up to around 3 or 4km.
Lack of moisture seems to be a an increasing problem especially away
from any coastal influence with DP having fallen in Canberra from 17
earlier this morning to around 9 at present (current dry bulb is 32.5).
Any storms that develop today are not likely to develop before early
evening and then be fairly uneventful.
Patrick from Canberra
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 14:43:01 +1100
From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan)
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney weekend + tv doc?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone
Some beautiful convection happening to the North and West of Sydney
(~14:00) - I say beautiful as it has been a while although don't
expect that we will see anything from it yet. Still there is plenty in
the way of heat and low level moisture so hopefully we should see some
action as the trough moves over sat/sun (at least within a day trip of
Sydney).
Also, I believe that there is some show tornado related show on
Channel 10 this coming Monday although I dont have any details.
Cheers
David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 14:52:35 +1100
From: Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.06 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cat 5 in Australia, same in USA ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul
I use #weather when i can get on generally late my isp gets a bit
clogged up from time to time maybe we can have a pow wow any othe night when
convenient get back to me about it maybe we can work out a time.
my nick is B727 and reserve nick is PA28
see ya soon the temps just hit 37 Deg C here almost 100F on your scale
kindest Regards
Brian Wheldon Gembrook
Paul Britton Jr. wrote:
> Good Day Brian,
> Thanks for the kind words! Weather b/t ppl is too often like a boxing
> match. :-/ (I hear Kangaroo's are a good for a round or two. :P) The good
> will always outweigh the bad in my mind...even when it is obvious it
> doesn't. The moment it doesn't...it can become very easy for one to loose
> themself. It's a pleasure knowing you too...I'm glad to be apart of this
> weather list! Do you ever come on #weather? If so, what is your nick..I'd
> like to talk with you sometime.
>
> Have a good one,
>
> Paul Britton Jr.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 15:09:13 +1100
From: Brian Wheldon [briwin at connexus.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.06 [en] (Win98; I)
To: "aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: sat pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All
Can someone let us know what has happened to the navy sat pics
got a map but no cloud?
Can the person that put the page up for all the cyclone names please
give us the address again for some reason only known to computers my
bookmarks didn,t save that night
Thanks
Brian Wheldon Gembrook Victoria
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 14:03:13 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Our cities rarely get it too hot...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Blair Trewin wrote:
>
> A few milestones to keep an eye on today given the forecast:
[snip]
> Also worth watching Melbourne's record minima for tonight:
[snip]
> 30.6 Highest on record for any month (30.5, 1/2/1902)
Keep those great records coming Blair, they're wonderful!
However, this pales into insignificance when compared to a city in
Middle East or Asia like New/Old Delhi. Not that I have detailed
records but Kashmir was our honeymoon destination in early October,
1987 and we landed around midnight in Delhi to a temperature of 41 C!
This rose to around 45 or 47 over the next few days but never went
below 40 at night! At the international airport, poor families were
camped outside the building during the night. The prime position was
right next to the glass of the building where the cold from inside the
building would cool their lean-to just a few more degrees below the
mean outside temperature. You certainly learned how the majority of
the world lives when you visit such countries...
In contrast, about 5 days into October, 1987, while in Kashmir at a
"ski resort" called Gulmarg some 800km northish of Delhi, snow fell
down to about 2500m. Three weeks into October, 1987 while in Nepal
trekking the Annapurna circuit, we trudged through more snow up to
0.5m deep from an altitude of 2800m. Following the weather system that
caused this snow in the Hindu Kush and Himalyas(?), Dehli had dropped
to a far more manageable temperature range of 24 to 32. This part of
Asia at least was full of weather contrasts like this.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Our cities rarely get it too hot...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 15:30:21 +1100 (EST)
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> However, this pales into insignificance when compared to a city in
> Middle East or Asia like New/Old Delhi. Not that I have detailed
> records but Kashmir was our honeymoon destination in early October,
> 1987 and we landed around midnight in Delhi to a temperature of 41 C!
> This rose to around 45 or 47 over the next few days but never went
> below 40 at night! At the international airport, poor families were
> camped outside the building during the night. The prime position was
> right next to the glass of the building where the cold from inside the
> building would cool their lean-to just a few more degrees below the
> mean outside temperature. You certainly learned how the majority of
> the world lives when you visit such countries...
I'm wondering where your figures are from; I have 19 years now of
records from various international stations (including New Delhi) out
of the newspapers, and while that's not necessarily an especially
reliable source in itself, I can't ever recall seeing a min of 40,
especially in October (I've seen a 38 in June) - max 35/min 25's
characteristic of October, although 1987 was a bit of an oddball year
(the monsoon failed) so I'd certainly believe days in the low-mid 40's.
> In contrast, about 5 days into October, 1987, while in Kashmir at a
> "ski resort" called Gulmarg some 800km northish of Delhi, snow fell
> down to about 2500m. Three weeks into October, 1987 while in Nepal
> trekking the Annapurna circuit, we trudged through more snow up to
> 0.5m deep from an altitude of 2800m. Following the weather system that
> caused this snow in the Hindu Kush and Himalyas(?), Dehli had dropped
> to a far more manageable temperature range of 24 to 32. This part of
> Asia at least was full of weather contrasts like this.
>
Amazing what a bit of elevation can do...
There aren't many regions of the world that get 30+ minima on any
regular basis - essentially the hot deserts and occasionally monsoon-
type climates in the 'build-up'. The Persian Gulf shores see mins in
the low 30s (and occasionally beyond) on a regular basis in summer,
and as the Persian Gulf SST's approach 35, the humidity must be
pretty horrendous too. The highest min I can remember seeing
anywhere is 39.4 C (103 F) at Death Valley. In humid tropical climates
28-29 is normally about the upper limit.
Apart from the Gulf, major cities which get 30+ minima include New
Delhi (mostly May/June), Adelaide and Phoenix (which has a whopper
urban heat island).
Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016
From: "Ben Quinn" [Bodie at corplink.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: sat pics
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 15:43:28 +1100
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>Hi All
> Can someone let us know what has happened to the navy sat pics
>got a map but no cloud?
>Can the person that put the page up for all the cyclone names please
>give us the address again for some reason only known to computers my
>bookmarks didn,t save that night
>Thanks
>Brian Wheldon Gembrook Victoria
>
I'm not completely sure what is happening when this happens brian, but i
have a feeling the satellite goes out of rang. Normally you get a few hours
sometime in the day when this happens, but this time it seems to have gone
on for a while longer this time. I emailed someone about it a while back
now, but i have since deleted the reply i got. It did say something about
the Satellite going out of range, maybe if you emailed them.
L8tr
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
017
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Accuracy Questioned?
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 16:19:43 +1100
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Hi All,
I, like Mark have to question the accuracy of the early
temperature readings. The accuracy of their instruments and the accuracy
of the reader/readings and the conversions when they converted from
imperial to metric.
A 1 degree C. temp is equal to 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit according
to all my conversion programs.
43.1 C = 109.58 F
43.8 C = 110.84 F
How many of these temperatures were rounded up or down? Unlike the digital
instruments of today I sure the instruments of the nineteenth century did
not measure to a 1/100th or 0.01 degrees Fahrenheit.
Unfortunately, unless somebody knows of a working time machine then
these are the only records to follow regardless of accuracy.
dymprog at mpx.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
018
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Fw: aussie-weather: Sydney weekend + tv doc?
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 16:51:31 +1100
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Hi All,
The show David is talking about is called Storm Warning on at
7.30 on Ten/Capital. Sounds good.
-----Original Message-----
>From: David Croan
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Friday, 11 December 1998 15:03
>Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney weekend + tv doc?
>
>
> Hi everyone
>
> Some beautiful convection happening to the North and West of Sydney
> (~14:00) - I say beautiful as it has been a while although don't
> expect that we will see anything from it yet. Still there is plenty in
> the way of heat and low level moisture so hopefully we should see some
> action as the trough moves over sat/sun (at least within a day trip of
> Sydney).
>
> Also, I believe that there is some show tornado related show on
> Channel 10 this coming Monday although I dont have any details.
>
> Cheers
>
> David
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
019
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Accuracy Questioned?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 16:56:48 +1100 (EST)
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> Hi All,
> I, like Mark have to question the accuracy of the early =
> temperature readings. The accuracy of their instruments and the accuracy =
> of the reader/readings and the conversions when they converted from =
> imperial to metric.
>
> A 1 degree C. temp is equal to 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit according =
> to all my conversion programs.
1.8 actually, but that's a nitpick. This is an exact conversion (not
an approximation).
> 43.1 C =3D 109.58 F
> 43.8 C =3D 110.84 F
> =20
> How many of these temperatures were rounded up or down? Unlike the =
> digital instruments of today I sure the instruments of the nineteenth =
> century did not measure to a 1/100th or 0.01 degrees Fahrenheit.
In theory observers were supposed to measure to the nearest 0.1 F.
In practice I'd say that 70-80% of observations were taken to the
nearest degree F, but this doesn't introduce an inherent bias, per se,
as one would expect the rounding to take place equally in both
directions (both up and down).
(Rounding happens now as well, although not as dramatically. When
I did a check on last decimal digit every one of the ~100 stations
I checked had a greater-than-10% frequency of temperatures ending in
.0).
The old observations were converted to degrees C in the National
Climate Centre after metrication - observers didn't do the conversion
themselves.
Blair Trewin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
020
From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Conversions
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 18:06:23 +1100
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Hi Blair,
Thanks for that. Nitpick or not now I will be able to convert my F to C temps more accurately. I always worked on 1 C = 1.6 F
>A 1 degree C. temp is equal to 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit according =
> to all my conversion programs.
>1.8 actually, but that's a nitpick. This is an exact conversion (not
an approximation).
> 43.1 C =3D 109.58 F
> 43.8 C =3D 110.84 F
>The old observations were converted to degrees C in the National
>Climate Centre after metrication - observers didn't do the conversion
>themselves.
I did not mean the observers do the conversion but that the initial reading /rounding error plus the latter conversion error plus any other possible unknowns could compound when a person is dealing with tenths of a degree.
Regards,
Terry
dymprog at mpx.com.au
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
021
From: "Greg Spencer" [hawk at aisnet.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Mailing List" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Thelma!!! What Happened??
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 15:08:17 +0800
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Hi All
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE THELMA ADVICE NUMBER 38
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
ISSUED AT 1.00 PM ON FRIDAY 11/12/1998.
=====
A WARNING for a CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is now current for the coastal
areas between Kalumburu and Cape Leveque, which includes the
community of Derby.
A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to Wallal.
At noon SEVERE CYCLONE THELMA was estimated to be 50 kilometres
northeast of Kuri Bay, 250 kilometres east northeast of Cape Leveque,
and 270 kilometres north northeast of Derby. The cyclone is now on
the coastline and although it has weakened further it is still
dangerous.
Very Destructive winds with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour are
likely near the centre which should pass near Kuri Bay this
afternoon.
Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend
to Cape Leveque tonight, and possibly Derby tomorrow morning.
\
Dangerously high tides and damaging waves could cause extensive
flooding near the cyclone centre.
Details of SEVERE CYCLONE Thelma at noon.
Location of centre Within 30 kilometres of
Latitude 15.2 South Longitude 124.9 East
Recent movement south southwest 10 kilometres per hour
Central pressure 960 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts 200 kilometres per hour near the centre
Severity category 3
Repeating this dangerous cyclone is now on the coast and very
destructive winds are expected in coastal areas near Kuri
Bay today.
Greg Spencer
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
022
X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.113]
From: "Kevin Phyland" [kjphyland at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Delays!!!!
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 01:06:47 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi every1,
(Just for the record I'm sending this at 8.04 p.m. Friday local)
These delays in sending and receiving mail are getting ridiculous!!
It's like radioing someone in the Oort cloud!
So to avoid lots of mail...
Blair,
I didn't get the email that you responded to (it must have been about
some record temperatures?) but I just wondered whether the Australian
record temperature (Cloncurry, I think) still stands or whether there is
now some doubt as to its veracity.
Anybody,
Is the Saffir-Simpson scale used in the US to rate hurricanes an
"either/or" as regards maximum core wind speeds and pressure or an "and"
situation?
every1,
It's bloody hot here in Wycheproof (~41 or 42 C today and still about 38
C!)
Any chance of Victorian storms tomorrow, or is the air mass too dry?
Yours, in exasperation,
Kevin from Wycheproof.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
023
Date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 20:57:18 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Our cities rarely get it too hot...
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Blair Trewin wrote:
> ...
> I'm wondering where your figures are from;
Hi Blair. You asked for it:-)
We arrived in Delhi about midnight on September 28, 1987. Temperature
reported by the pilot on approach was 41 C (this is usually relayed up
from ground observations). Next day remained 40+ as we cooled off in
the airport along with half of the local rat population. We left the
next day to Shrinagar in Kasmir, where it was 28 C on arrival.
Shrinagar is about 1200m and a long way north of Delhi. We spent the
remainder of the week there and visited Gulmarg (2500m) on Sat 3/10/87
to Mon 5/10/87 (snowed on 5/10 down to 2700m). We returned to Delhi on
Wed 7/10/98 and confirmed flights to Kathmandu (ha ha). It had cooled
down by then according to the locals to just mid 30's max. We went to
Agra on Fri 9/10 on a very hot day over 38 C and returned to Delhi on
the Sun 11/10 (confirmed Kathmandu flights again). Kathmandu flight
was Tue 13/10 at 9:00am. We arrived at 6:00 to discover the flight
closed but waiting on the tarmac with 20 spare seats. No one had told
us of the rescheduling of the flight to a 6:00am departure! So we had
words with Indian Airlines officials which took some hours to sort
out, so I got talking to the flight control officer for Indian
Airlines. I commented on how hot it was for our arrival and he pulled
out the temperature readings taken every hour at Delhi airport since
28/9/97. There was not one reading below 40 C from 28/9/87 to 4/10/87!
Now I've got to admit some surprise at this but the figures were all
typed up and circled in red since according to this official, it had
never been so hot for so long. Now such localities are probably prone
to local effects such as hot tarmacs radiating heat into the night and
thermometers in exposed places next to jet exhausts etc. but he did
seem as genuine as any Indian official could seem to be:-)
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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