From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney Storm Chase 13/11
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 1998 16:37:29 GMT
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On Fri, 13 Nov 1998 22:38:44 +1100, Michael Bath
 wrote:

>
>What a great day it turned out to be in Sydney!
>
Thanks for the writeup, Michael. I viewed the second storm you chased
from the top of Gladesville Bridge in bumper to bumper traffic at
about 7.30, and it was an awesome sight, with the sun shining through
under a magnificent but smooth arcus cloud that extended from SW to
WNW, and CC lightning playing around a pink/orange anvil. Didn't have
the camera with me -- damn!

The radar shows both storms developed in almost precisely the same
location, and intensified very quickly.

>From the ABC news site:


>Power has been restored to more than 500 customers after
>                   spectacular electrical storms passed over Sydney's southern
>                   suburbs this evening.
>
>                   The thunderstorms affected suburbs including Mennai, Engadine,
>                   Cronulla and Mortdale, with reports of hail in some areas, as large
>                   as golf balls.
>
>                   However, there are no reports at this stage of any serious damage
>                   caused by the storms. 


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

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Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 07:21:32 +1100
From: Anthony Cornelius 
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australian Storm Chasers Society Meeting Date
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I still believe that the best place would be over the internet, that way
everyone could get involved.  That's just my opinion, but I know a few
people agree with me.  I know that Sydney does have the greatest
concentration of chasers, so I know where you are coming from, but
that's still just a handful of the interested people.

Anthony

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australian Storm Chasers Society Meeting Date
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 09:39:00 +1100
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In regards to the your message of having the chaser society on the internet,
it may be interesting to discuss the legal requirements of this type of
thing. It does involve everyone and meetings can occur more often without
having to worry about people making it. But if you are a registered society,
there are certain legal things that must take place in case of someone
trying to sue you etc.... I think.

I actually would like to see both happening... Like I said. In different
centres to involve different groups of people. The social aspects of chasers
meeting especially for the first time is very important.

By the way, the first meeting to be held in (supposed) Sydney is just to
discuss the setup which is often boring anyway.... People we definitely have
a reportback.

I would like to stress that meetings be held in various centres to involve
groups of chasers in their area rather than just the capital cities.
Otherwise, it WILL NOT WORK.

Jimmy Deguara
The hail chaser

-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, November 14, 1998 8:21 AM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australian Storm Chasers Society Meeting Date


>I still believe that the best place would be over the internet, that way
>everyone could get involved.  That's just my opinion, but I know a few
>people agree with me.  I know that Sydney does have the greatest
>concentration of chasers, so I know where you are coming from, but
>that's still just a handful of the interested people.
>
>Anthony

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: any damage in sydney storms?
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 09:50:06 +1100
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In response to your message regarding the Hunter storms... Here is the
message posted to me by Tim Crugeon. He is an enthusiastic chaser who chased
with me up to

"How were the storms down your way this afternoon (13/11)?....... I have
just
chased one in our local area around Tenambit and Raworth. This storm hit
this area at 5:35 pm and brought moderate winds, heavy rain and hail 2
to 3 cm. The area recieved minor flooding. From this storm it hit our
place at around 5:50 and brought 10 mm of rain in 10 minutes and only
pea size hail.

Tim Grugeon"


-----Original Message-----
From: James Chambers 
To: Aussie Weather 
Date: Friday, November 13, 1998 11:55 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: any damage in sydney storms?


>On the old northern Hunter Severe T'storm Advice it mentioned hail was
large
>and rain caused local flash flooding.  Any exact figures?  Hail sizes?
>Which storms were severe?
>
>James

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australian Storm Chasers Society Meeting Date
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:05:56 +1100
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Hi Everybody (including all those lucky Bast.....ds in Sydney!!)

1. Internet meetings will not satisfy NSW Legislation for meetings, and that
for a few reasons:

You need a quorum of people to be in attendance, otherwise the meeting is
invalid. BY definition, they must be in personal attendance. and Internet
chat would not constitute "personal" attendance, although it may make a good
high court case one day.

Minutes are required of all meetings, and there is processes that need to be
followed. Now this is possible with irc etc meetings BUT I would suggest
damn near impossible, with it hard to be able to "control" the directions of
meetings, people being kicked, Internet connections, power failures,
financial difficulties, severe storms causing PCS being inoperable during
the meeting times etc. These are all things we have to take into account.

What happens if we have members without PC access? We them deny them the
right to partake in the meetings. Not a good choice.

Personal rather then PC meetings would make it easier for the direction &
flow of meetings, and make sure that each person has a say. IRC groups
cannot be controlled to that extent, with frequent interruptions,
interjections, ...a person may feel without opinion, thus destroying the
real purpose we are there for.

I agree with Jimmy with regards to having meetings outside major centres,
HOWEVER this may defeat the purpose of having a meeting where 1 person
resides (I cannot see a meeting taking place at Taree....where I only live).
The idea of having meetings in major centres, is so that all have access,
even if some travel is involved. Proper management principles will tell you
this. And Im sure that if we surveyed all that want to be part, we would
find that 95% of the members would live within 1 hrs drive of the meeting
location.

For example, (and my regards to Kevin) I could not see a meeting taking
place in Wycheproof?? wherever it may be.

Anyways, what about the 1st meeting date?? We need to discuss this first.

Paul

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 09:13:26 +1100
From: Anthony Cornelius 
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Subject: aussie-weather: Brisbane Wx + Obs
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Hi all,

Well 8/8 of low and mid level cloud here.  I was hoping that the cloud
would break up this morning, especially since both MRF + NGP had
decreased levels of moisture in the mid levels, however the cloud is
still fairly thick in some places.  Although it has thinned out somewhat
in the last hour, and the "warmth" (if it could be called that) can be
felt from the Sun through some of the cloud, but only very slightly.  At
9am, it was 22C and a DP of 19C at the Brisbane Airport, winds here are
very light NE, basically you can just feel the air move slightly. 
Apparently some areas have some sunny breaks through the cloud (from the
surf report on the radio) so that might be a promising sign!  I'm still
cautiously optomistic, especially since both NGP and MRF had good
t'storm conditions for us today, with a surface trough directing NE
winds on us, upper level trough still lingering around a little,
vertical velocities of about -12, moisture in mid levels reducing to
about 50-70% RH and TT's of 50-55.  The jetstream could be better
though, but other then that everything does appear pretty good!  Just
need this cloud to thin out.

Very patchy rainfall so far, we had 10mm between 7am yesterday and 7am
today.  Giving a total of 19mm from this "rain band."

Anthony from Brisbane

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From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Urgent announcement for all those concerned
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:08:49 +1100
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I believe that the trou line has stalled over Sydney. We have had
castellanus off the coast and not some towers are developing just to our
east. I believe there is a good chance of activity her in Sydney and the
Central Coast and Hunter...

Michael Thompson, if you feel obliged to come, I'd say take the rsik and
come up. Please indicate to others on the list if you are....

Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara from Schofields
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Australian Storm Chasing Society.
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:26:21 +1100
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I suppose it would be best to discuss this ( the state issue ) at the
meeting, I think perhaps a eastern / northern / western may be a better
break down. For example some states will be flat out having 1 member, let
alone 3 office positions.

Now for some controversy - I think that Storms News should evolve into the
new storm chasers magazine. Naturally we should pay whoever for doing it.

Radar - the Bureau has obscure third party arrangements, I suppose the more
people that argree with paying, the less any individual would pay.

The website is a great idea, both Australia Severe Weather and myself  have
unlimited web space, but then again these days it is a cinch to a free
5-10mb on a host of US servers, as long as you put up with the adverts.

Michael


>Australian Storm Chasers Society would be the Association.
>Then there could be:
>NSW Branch
>Victoria Branch
>QLD Branch
>SA Branch
>WA Branch
>NT Branch
>Tas Branch.
>
>Each Branch would be responsible for its own affairs, reportable to the
>executive & General Committee of the Association (which members of the
>Branches would be automatic members of).
>
>Each State would then only need
>
>President
>Secretary
>Treasurer
>
>for each Branch, responsible for collecting membership fees and
>recruitment. Policy and other directions would be then given by the
>Australian Assoc. to each State branch.
>
>Membership could include: Radar, Bi-Monthly Newsletter, Website, Minutes of
>all meetings being distributed.
>
>I would appreciate any replies asap. I will in the next few days develop a
>survey to determine how best the Assoc, will provide for the needs of its
>members.
>
>
>Yours In the Cell!
>Paul Mossman
>Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Urgent announcement for all those concerned
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:31:25 +1100
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Interesting ! the bureau has scaled back the Hunter to no storms, here the
SE wind is 15-25knots, stronger than expected, and right around to SE, no
hint of land componet in it at all. Will ring you if I decide to go.

Michael

-----Original Message-----
From: Jimmy Deguara 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, 14 November 1998 10:13
Subject: aussie-weather: Urgent announcement for all those concerned


>I believe that the trou line has stalled over Sydney. We have had
>castellanus off the coast and not some towers are developing just to our
>east. I believe there is a good chance of activity her in Sydney and the
>Central Coast and Hunter...
>
>Michael Thompson, if you feel obliged to come, I'd say take the rsik and
>come up. Please indicate to others on the list if you are....
>
>Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: " Gully" wind effect in Melbourne.
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:13:55 +1100
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In my Sydney work days, when I had to endure the 100km train trip ( each
way ) from Wollongong daily, I would often observe on cloudless winter
mornings gale force pockets of wind along the northern Illawarra escarpment,
blowing from the west, especially from Austinmer to Stanwell Park. This
would be around 6.30am - 7.00am. In Sydney it would be calm, on rare
occasions even a light frost. In Wollongong itself there was nearly always a
light offshore, hence Wollongong would often tie Byron Bay for the warmest
overnight temperature in NSW.

Michael



-----Original Message-----
From: Dr Martin Davey 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Friday, 13 November 1998 23:48
Subject: aussie-weather: Re: " Gully" wind effect in Melbourne.


>I was reading with interest the description of the " gully " wind effect or
>tunnelling of winds from the SE in Melbourne yesterday. In Adelaide " gully
>" winds are very common in the Eastern Suburbs in the Summer months.
>Apparently they are due to an " inversion" layer of air which then tunnels
>down through the hill gullies. When there is a south - easterly airstream
>the winds can be very strong, even gale force. It is quite an interesting
>wind in that it only occurs at night and is very localized to the foothills
>and nearby suburbs. While the wind can be close to gale force in the
>foothills it can be perfectly calm at the top of of the hill and some
>distance away from the foothills eg in the northern suburbs. I have
>travelled quite extensively but haven't come across this phenomenon much.
>Does it occur in Melbourne much? Does anyone know where else such unusual
>winds may occur?
>
>Martin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Hail=green
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 10:08:04 +1100
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There was some debate about this on a US newsgroup some time back, as with
all US groups if you dared to suggest it was something to do with light
being refracted / reflected / absorbed, etc , you were flamed by several
so-called experts who strangely did not however contribute a theory of they
own.

Personally I think it is a light thing. I suppose a certain amount of light
can pass through water droplets, but opaque hail may be a different matter.

Michale


>Hi every1,
>
>I've seen a couple of references on the list to green optics and hail
>and having seen a few myself (Gold Coast about six years ago and locally
>about four years ago) was wondering about the physics of it. It's not an
>optical illusion (I don't think) and I was wondering whether hail bends
>light differently to raindrops. I think it does but I'm not sure how!
>There is a definite dark green hue to the low-based storms that I've
>observed that produced lots of hail. They've all been when I've been
>facing west (oddly enough) in late afternoon.
>
>Yours,
>Kevin Phyland.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: bris obs
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 11:15:05 +1000
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The cloud has decreased nicely here with some very fine cirrus and inland cu
congestus and the occasional TCU.  There's a storm on Kingaroy as we speak
and hopefully dev't would continue to the SW and south.

I don't have exact obs, because they weren't up to date, but its something
like this:
temp: 25/26
RH: 75%
light northerly (freshening a little)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
jamestorm at ozemail.com.au
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 16:06:04 +1100
From: Anthony Cornelius 
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Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms
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Hi all!

Well, we have at least two visible cells here, one is the W, the other
is the SW, I can see the one to the W more clearly, although the anvil
is fibrous, it's starting to get better organised, and a little while
ago it had a nice flanking line!

Lightning tracker is not showing anything - I don't think it's working
properly, mum is 80km W of Brisbane, she contacted me about 50mins ago
to tell me they were getting continuous rolling thunder, and that the
clouds over her were a black/purple colour, and the clouds to the S were
a grey/blue colour.

Also some cells to the N of here I've been told, however I don't have a
good view to the N!

No warnings yet.

Anthony

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 17:33:12 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Storm Photo...
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Hi everyone,
	I have a quite spectacular photo of yesterday's storm front in SW
Sydney.  You can find it at: 
http://hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au/~m3052695/wild.jpg
When I get some time, I'll put some more on with a report.
	- Paul G.

----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne - nice day 
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 17:38:09 +1100
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Melbourne currently:-
Temp:		24.2 deg
DP:		9.2 deg
Pressure:	1008.6
Wind:		NNE  at  11kn gusting to 16kn
Cloud:		5/8 Ci, 1/8 Cu

Nice day for a picnic!!  Forecasting is light rain in the next 24 hours.

Have a nice day you guys to the north.... (use some petrol for the rest of
us)

Jane
Melbourne

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: SE Qld Radar report -- 16.20 EST
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 06:37:44 GMT
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>From the radar animations, there look like 4 or 5 cells in the
Brisbane area at present, all moving just N of NE. The reference
points below refer to the radar at Marburg, about 20km west of
Ipswich.

1. a decaying storm about 5km east, was showing patches of >100mm/hr
between 15.20 and 15.40

2. two strengthening cells, 40km SE and ESE respectively, showing
40>100mm/hr in the last 20 minutes. These two joined by continuous
band of rain, ~2mm/hr, so there could be more in there.

3. cell 80km NNE peaked at 10>20mm/hr at 16.10, now back to 4>10mm/hr


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 06:47:03 GMT
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Two cells

1. about halfway between Katoomba and Camden, moving fairly slowly
ENE. 

2. just south of Bowral, moving slowly and eratically, but SW in the
past 10 mins.

Both are showing points of 20>40mm/hr rain, and occasional flashes
into the 40>100 range. Until 17.20 both were joined by continuous
light rain, but have just separated.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 17:56:40 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST
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Hi Laurier and everyone, 

I haven't detected any static crackles (from lightning) on the AM radio
yet - will keep listening. On the way home from the city earlier this
afternoon, I did notice some altocumulus cloud to the west and Cb cells
off the coast. 

-Paul G. 

----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

On Sat, 14 Nov 1998, Laurier Williams wrote:

> Two cells
> 
> 1. about halfway between Katoomba and Camden, moving fairly slowly
> ENE. 
> 
> 2. just south of Bowral, moving slowly and eratically, but SW in the
> past 10 mins.
> 
> Both are showing points of 20>40mm/hr rain, and occasional flashes
> into the 40>100 range. Until 17.20 both were joined by continuous
> light rain, but have just separated.
> 
> 
> -- 
> Laurier Williams

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 18:06:26 +1100
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Hi Jimmy here,

I had called Michael Thompson to come up here so we can go north to chase.
When he got here, we decided not to go....damn. I can now see cumulonimbus
bulging above the horizon now around the region north of Newcastle. When you
make these decisions, you have to go for broke..

The trip was not wasted as Michael was able to show us his videos and we
were able to show him ours mainly from the storms yesterday evening. Quite
impressive.

Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: seqld storm activity
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 17:14:36 +1000
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It looks like everything is weakening now.  One good thing though - I took
some very nice mammatus pics - the sort you'd expect from a severe storm.

Some weak stuff to the south with probably heavy rain but we can't expect
much from them.  Anthony and I will keep everyone informed if a beast
develops!!  (as if)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
jamestorm at ozemail.com.au
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 19:02:54 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Interesting Comparison...
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Hi everyone,
	Just having a look at this morning's soundings (0000Z) and have
noticed a quite marked change in stability between Wagga Wagga and
Williamtown.  The Williamtown sounding still shows an atmosphere able to
support storms with the temperature lapse mostly greater than moist
adiabatic (conditionally unstable), while the Wagga trace shows a very
stable atmosphere with the temperature lapse mostly less than moist
adiabatic (stable) and with quite a number of inversions.
	My barometer  has also indicated the change with a rise of around
8 Hpa from yesterday evening.  It'll be interesting to watch for
destabilisation as there is long wave front approaching with the chance of
storms tomorrow evening.
	- Paul G.
----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney Storm Chase 13/11
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 98 19:10:58 +1000
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Dear All,

Here is a chase summary for the 13/11/98 severe storms in Sydney.
I will pass the photos on later for scanning for a web.
        --

I had been anticipating some Friday storm action for Sydney since early 
in the week, so I had planned a 1/2 day off just in case. The early 
forecast was going for late storms and around noon, as I sorted through 
the mailing list messages, I was pleasantly surprised that based on the 
sounding data, Paul was confident that severe storms would be firing 
somewhere in the general region.  As I usually do, I headed up to the 
Beacon Hill lookout: fairly large storm systems to the Nth and Sth. some 
large cumulus to the west. I phoned Paul back at 3:30 pm and the chase 
was on.

During the 30 minute drive to Paul's house things were looking good with 
some large cumulus pushing the cap to the west. After picking up Paul, we 
decided to make a beeline for Rooty Hill. However, no sooner had we paid 
to M2 toll, that we both suspected that we were going to bust.  Perhaps 
it was mainly as there seemed to be a dry air intrusion to the NW as the 
promising development had died, but also after listening to the BoM 
summary (from Steve Symmonds I think) as there were no severe TS 
advices/warnings and nothing but a possible late thundery shower in 
Sydney. All the right ingredients were there but as Paul said, with 
thunderstorms you can't be sure of what to expect.  

As we made it west things were again looking up. Around 4:30pm several 
large congestus were going up right above us, We observed some beautiful 
pilleus capping the storm to the south and Paul pointed out what appeared 
to be a false funnel.  I had my eye on one particular persistent 
congestus which appeared to finally break through and developed a nice 
updraft base.  At this stage, being around the corner (literally) from 
Rooty Hill, we decided to first see if Jimmy and Michael were there 
before heading out after the developing storm. As we waited at traffic 
lights we saw a familiar car headed in the opposite direction - It was 
Jimmy and Michael; they had already sized up this development and were 
onto it.  We had no chance of catching them but we weren't going to miss 
out. We headed Sth towards Horsley Park not exactly sure of where the 
lookout was.  We pulled off the road checked our map and watched as the 
system moved to the SE.  Paul navigated us towards the lookout where I 
observed the first CG probably about 5 km away. As we topped the Horsley 
Hill lookout I was surprised that the storm had really got going, as it 
seemed to be teetering on the brink for so long. We both got a few photos 
and watched the storm put out plenty of CGs and then a beautiful narrow 
but 'dense' rain/hail curtain developed. I commented to Paul that Michael 
and Jimmy would be somewhere in the thick of it (and they were!).  The 
multicell development was propagating to the NW (towards us) and we were 
wary of the CGs which were getting close. However the overall SE movement 
of the system put us in the perfect position to view the storm to the SE 
at a close but safe distance.  It was a magnificent site watching the 
storm mature with CGs, a probable microburst, a pronounced hail shaft 
and, my favourite, swirling scud being drawn into the updraft. Also a 
spectacular lowered base developed (on the NW flank of the precipitation 
core) which showed signs of rotation. At this stage (~5.30pm) the storm 
then seemed lose some punch and we were worried that the cold outflow was 
going to take over.  As the storm edged further east we observed the 
magnificent rear section of the cumuliform anvil overhead and it appeared 
to be backsheared. More exciting was the new updraft which was developing 
to our immediate SE, again on the NW flank of the system. It was almost 
as though we were watching time lapse - you could clearly see the boiling 
updraft literally swell out - we were not aware of any warnings at the 
time but it clear that this was explosive development. 

To the west more cumulus were trying to break through. At this stage 
(~6:30 pm), Paul and I both commented that the unorganised development 
occurring right overhead would probably not produce much but we decided 
to wait, and just as well - soon after another nice looking updraft base 
began to develop to our west probably 5 km away.  At around 6:45 pm, 
Jimmy and Michael soon arrived on the hill (after core punching the storm 
we were watching) and we compared what we had all witnessed. Jimmy and 
Michael pointed out a magnificent storm (and another one behind it) , 
probably 150+ km to the NW - Paul and I were so engrossed in the Sydney 
development that we did not notice it [We all agreed that it looked like 
a supercell with a boiling updraft and backsheared anvil]. 
The updraft base of the approaching second storm to our west moved closer 
and, as with the first storm, was very spectacular. Precipitation broke 
through and we observed some nice CGs as it moved to within a few kms. 
This region of the storm produced heavy rain, strong (but not severe 
category) wind and some close CGs. Most spectacular was the lowered base 
which was revealed as the storm moved to our east - this was one of the 
most awesome sights I have ever witnessed. We also saw a tail cloud 
extending Nth from the rear section of the storm, which was visibly 
feeding into the updraft, and had the same appearance as a shelf cloud 
along a gustfront. To the south east was an immense rain curtain (we only 
copped to Nth edge) - basically this storm had an excellent structure and 
I was not at all surprised when I checked my messages the following 
morning to find that severe thunderstorm warnings had been issued for it. 
To top off a great afternoon/evening chase we were treated to a nice 
display of mainly anvil lightning before heading home at 8:00 pm.

The only down point was that I shot about 15 minutes of video of the 
first storm, before the battery died, only to get home and find that I 
forgot to put the tape in - was wondering what that flashing 'tape' sign 
meant :(

Finally, my parents reported a 'fairly heavy' lawn coverage of hail which 
ranged from marble to 10c piece diameter (which is probably bordering on 
sever limits) at their home in Padstow (Near Bankstown) in Sydney's SW. 

By far the best chase of my life and it was great to share it with other 
chasers.

Cheers 

David C

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Storms??
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 19:14:46 +1100
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It will be interesting to see if there were storms near Paul Mossman.
Obviously he is not on so I am wondering if he is chasing them.

By the way, at this stage for me, 3rd of December is ok for me to discuss
the storm chaser society setup.

Jimmy Deguara
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
Jimmy Deguara from Schofields
e-mail:  jimmyd at ozemail.com.au
homepage with Michael Bath
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney Storm Chase 13/11
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 19:16:41 +1100
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Hi David,

Jimmy here. It is good to know that there was hail of significance reported.
But was it from the first or second storm? I suppose the second one. I need
to know if there was significant hail in the first storm...

Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 18:35:44 +1100
From: Anthony Cornelius 
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms - Best uneventful storm ever
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Hi all,

Well, the storms that developed very rapidly to the S and SW here,
seemed to have fizzled out as quickly as they developed.  I was quite
excited at first, with a very well defined flanking line, and a quickly
strengthening and heightening anvil.  Not to mention some good mammatus!
I'm with James on that one, the mammatus is the type you'd see from a
severe t'storm, but I myself received nothing except a few spits of rain
for 5mins, and heard 3 rumbles of thunder.  I have never taken so many
pictures of such an uneventful storm!  It did have some nice structure,
and was fairly well organised at one stage before falling apart.  My
guess is that they suffocated themselves.  They developed too late, and
subsequently, once their anvils started to travel too far forward, and
blocked out the Sun.  They lost their heat for convective energy. 
Certainly, the atmosphere could have been more kind for t'storms as
well!

My mum actually recieved some reasonably strong winds, that bent the
middle pole on the tarpaulin (sorry about spelling) and broke off a few
twigs (80km WSW of Brisbane)

I'm hopeful for Monday, the BoM isn't forecasting t'storms, but by
yesterday's and this morning models, it looked fairly promising, and I'm
about to do my forecasts now.  I'm hoping the 0Z NGP will follow suit.

Anthony from Brisbane

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storm Photo...
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:34:13 +1100
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If that does not get a storm chasers blood boiling nothing will !!!

I watched Jimmy's and Michael Bath's videos of the same today, really
awesome, it was definitely on the border of going into severe mode.

Michael


-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Date: Saturday, 14 November 1998 17:33
Subject: aussie-weather: Storm Photo...


>Hi everyone,
> I have a quite spectacular photo of yesterday's storm front in SW
>Sydney.  You can find it at:
>http://hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au/~m3052695/wild.jpg
>When I get some time, I'll put some more on with a report.
> - Paul G.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms - Best uneventful storm ever
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:32:04 +1100
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The radar from about 2pm - 4pm showed a very nice storm with >100mm reflect
over Gympie, Jimmy and I thought that it had to hail, any reports ?

Michael

-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Date: Saturday, 14 November 1998 19:36
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms - Best uneventful storm ever


>Hi all,
>
>Well, the storms that developed very rapidly to the S and SW here,
>seemed to have fizzled out as quickly as they developed.  I was quite
>excited at first, with a very well defined flanking line, and a quickly
>strengthening and heightening anvil.  Not to mention some good mammatus!
>I'm with James on that one, the mammatus is the type you'd see from a
>severe t'storm, but I myself received nothing except a few spits of rain
>for 5mins, and heard 3 rumbles of thunder.  I have never taken so many
>pictures of such an uneventful storm!  It did have some nice structure,
>and was fairly well organised at one stage before falling apart.  My
>guess is that they suffocated themselves.  They developed too late, and
>subsequently, once their anvils started to travel too far forward, and
>blocked out the Sun.  They lost their heat for convective energy.
>Certainly, the atmosphere could have been more kind for t'storms as
>well!
>
>My mum actually recieved some reasonably strong winds, that bent the
>middle pole on the tarpaulin (sorry about spelling) and broke off a few
>twigs (80km WSW of Brisbane)
>
>I'm hopeful for Monday, the BoM isn't forecasting t'storms, but by
>yesterday's and this morning models, it looked fairly promising, and I'm
>about to do my forecasts now.  I'm hoping the 0Z NGP will follow suit.
>
>Anthony from Brisbane

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:44:42 +1100
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Not sure whether the Newcastle trip would have paid off, there is some small
stuff up near Scone.

In regard to Laurier's reports I drove through the eastern edge of this
stuff near Picton, strange setup. There was a healthy congestus to the south
west of the Hume Hwy near Picton, but it would glaciate and spread out into
stratus rather quickly, I think the heavier reflects were from the congestus
stages that showered briefly before spreading. The  whole lot looked capped,
but capped at 3000-400 metres, rather than lower, which allowed for the
congestus. The congestus was building in a narrow line where the coastal
scud was dissipating after its ascent over the Illawarra escarpment. There
was light fog on top of Mt Keira near Wollongong. The AM radio did not pick
up any lightning. I turned off the Hume Hwy at Picton, one thing I did
notice was all the cars coming from the SW had headlights one, so presume
there was probably fog near Berrima.

Michael



radar report -- 17.30 EDST


>Hi Jimmy here,
>
>I had called Michael Thompson to come up here so we can go north to chase.
>When he got here, we decided not to go....damn. I can now see cumulonimbus
>bulging above the horizon now around the region north of Newcastle. When
you
>make these decisions, you have to go for broke..
>
>The trip was not wasted as Michael was able to show us his videos and we
>were able to show him ours mainly from the storms yesterday evening. Quite
>impressive.
>
>Jimmy Deguara

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms - and forecasting techniques???
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:40:09 +1100
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What you "may" have observed Anthony is a situation that can often occur
here paticularly after a change has gone through. Thunderstorms develop on
the mtns and so not move off the ranges. They often send across an extensive
anvil with a few drops of rain. The action remains on the mtns.

I would like to take the opportunity to mention my thoughts on what Anthony
has decided on forecasting techniques. I have now for quite a few years been
of the view that you should try and forecast the weather yourself rather
than totally rely on the weather forecasts. I was the person that used to
check radio, television and even newspaper for forecasts. I knew all the
times the weatherman were on and so on. I was often upset if I missed one.

Let me make this point. If you rely on forecasts, they often make you feel
there will be storms when there is nothing on the cards (based on your own
observation and you know it) and also the reverse situation. You tend to
want to believe the forecast especially when storms are forecast. Try and
make your own forecasts and you will see just how accurate and less
dependent you will become. I am not saying that I am any expert... Certainly
I am not. But I had found that there were many situations when I was
thinking there were thunderstorms but because of the forecast I laughed it
off only to find I was correct.

One particular situation which comes to mind is the 29th September 1983. The
forecast as I remember that day was for the chance for a late shower. When I
was going to catch the bus for school, I noticed a very thick moisture haze
which indicated thunderstorms. Of course, I was puzzled but being 15, what
did I know. I kept watch all morning and then in the early afternoon, I
noticed towering cumulus rapidly developing. To cut a long story short,
there wer many hailstorms there and then later one of the most spectacular
dark base with large hail over my area (3 - 4cm locally). Goes to show you
how a forecast can change your outlook of the day.

Just a piece of friendly advice. Try it and see if it works. the temptation
is to check the forecast but try and avoid it. I very rarely take note of
the forecast nowadays even when I watch the weather on TV and it flashes at
you! I simply take note of satpics, synoptic charts, and the lifted index
charts for thunderstorm prospects.. Forget about the total totals ndex
charts. Where can you find the lifted index charts?? Please use the floowing
instructions....

check our chart links page...

http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/links/ozcharts.htm

Then look for the section

Climate, Weather Analyses, Weather Forecasts from NOAA
                           AB/CPC Data Page: Server Selection Page
                           AB/CPC Data Page: Server 1
                           AB/CPC Data Page: Server 2
                           AB/CPC Data Page: Server 3
                           Global Data Assimilation System forecasts
                           AVN
forecasts ---------------------------------------this is the one I use
                           MRF forecasts

It seems to be the most up to date but only extends for 3 days.

Then select the appropriate latest time based on UTC and click the NEXT PAGE
button

Then  choose LIFTX - on my page the variable is on the right hand column

Then go to the problem and change map projection to aust    (australia)

Then select the times you want and the dat based on UTC. It gives you the
time range you can choose between 3 days in total other wise it will give a
data error


Then pree the PLOT button  it should take about 15 seconds at the most or so
and you will have a plot.


Always look for a blue section especially dark blue.... the more negative
the index, the greater chance of thunderstorms or even severe weather you
have. Typically I look for -3 or below for severe weather....

Now you can check this for yourself. I have found it quite an accurate
description of regions where thunderstorms may develop. A couple of months
ago, I though it would not produce thunderstorms in an area where where -3
to -6 values occurred. But later, there was explosive development during the
late evening in the area of maxima with severe weather...

Sorry about the long message but I felt like writing. I hope this helps....

Jimmy Deguara
The  happy hail chaser .... one day I will get knocked on the bloody head by
a 10cm stone!!!

-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Date: Saturday, November 14, 1998 7:36 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD T'storms - Best uneventful storm ever


>Hi all,
>
>Well, the storms that developed very rapidly to the S and SW here,
>seemed to have fizzled out as quickly as they developed.  I was quite
>excited at first, with a very well defined flanking line, and a quickly
>strengthening and heightening anvil.  Not to mention some good mammatus!
>I'm with James on that one, the mammatus is the type you'd see from a
>severe t'storm, but I myself received nothing except a few spits of rain
>for 5mins, and heard 3 rumbles of thunder.  I have never taken so many
>pictures of such an uneventful storm!  It did have some nice structure,
>and was fairly well organised at one stage before falling apart.  My
>guess is that they suffocated themselves.  They developed too late, and
>subsequently, once their anvils started to travel too far forward, and
>blocked out the Sun.  They lost their heat for convective energy.
>Certainly, the atmosphere could have been more kind for t'storms as
>well!
>
>My mum actually recieved some reasonably strong winds, that bent the
>middle pole on the tarpaulin (sorry about spelling) and broke off a few
>twigs (80km WSW of Brisbane)
>
>I'm hopeful for Monday, the BoM isn't forecasting t'storms, but by
>yesterday's and this morning models, it looked fairly promising, and I'm
>about to do my forecasts now.  I'm hoping the 0Z NGP will follow suit.
>
>Anthony from Brisbane

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 20:42:08 +1100
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Michael, I would say I was looking at that activity this evening as the
sun's rays reflected on it..

Jimmy Deguara
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, November 14, 1998 8:43 PM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney radar report -- 17.30 EDST


>Not sure whether the Newcastle trip would have paid off, there is some
small
>stuff up near Scone.
>
>In regard to Laurier's reports I drove through the eastern edge of this
>stuff near Picton, strange setup. There was a healthy congestus to the
south
>west of the Hume Hwy near Picton, but it would glaciate and spread out into
>stratus rather quickly, I think the heavier reflects were from the
congestus
>stages that showered briefly before spreading. The  whole lot looked
capped,
>but capped at 3000-400 metres, rather than lower, which allowed for the
>congestus. The congestus was building in a narrow line where the coastal
>scud was dissipating after its ascent over the Illawarra escarpment. There
>was light fog on top of Mt Keira near Wollongong. The AM radio did not pick
>up any lightning. I turned off the Hume Hwy at Picton, one thing I did
>notice was all the cars coming from the SW had headlights one, so presume
>there was probably fog near Berrima.
>
>Michael

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "viking" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Hi all.
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 1998 14:38:51 +0800
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I have just joined the mailing list. My friend and I are fascinated by
weather conditions especially thunderstorms.We both hail from Perth,and are
very interested in storm chasing.
regards Anne.