This information is aimed at those who reside in the NSW weather districts of Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers, northern half of the Mid North Coast, the Northwest Slopes and Plains, and also those in Southeast Queensland. As such, the more southern and distant parts of the Northern Ranges including the Barrington Tops and Walcha are not discussed - though the forecasting tips presented on this page are valid for those areas and the Central Tablelands too.

Like the rest of mainland Australia outside the Alpine regions of Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW, the Northern Ranges of NSW are a marginal location for snowfalls. As such, it is quite a novelty and challenge for weather enthusiasts and snow chasers to see snow falling, or to come across decent accumulations of snow.

Non-alpine snow is possible in Southeast Australia any time of the year but of course it is much more likely in the coldest months with the shortest amount of daylight: May through August.

The Northern Ranges of the Great Dividing Range can be seen in this map courtesy of Andrew Miskelly. It includes the Barrington Tops west of Gloucester, the Nandewar Ranges (Mount Kaputar) east of Narrabri, all of the Northern Tablelands district from around Walcha to Tenterfield, and over the border into the Granite Belt district of Queensland. Some western parts of the Mid North Coast and the Upper Hunter are also part of the Northern Ranges.

The most common areas to see snowfalls are at Mt Kaputar in the North West Slopes, and around Guyra to Ben Lomond in the Northern Tablelands. There is no surprise why: those areas have plenty of terrain above 1,300 metres elevation. The higher the terrain, the better the chance of getting low enough temperatures for snow. Temperatures typically fall about 7-8 degrees C per 1,000 metres of elevation although this varies depending on how moist or dry the air is. This is referred to as the lapse rate.

Temperatures are regularly cold enough for snow throughout the Northern Ranges, but getting ample moisture to coincide with the cold temperatures requires certain weather setups that can be quite uncommon. Most snow events are fairly short duration with snow.

Significant cold fronts crossing the southeast of the country can produce snowfalls on the Northern Ranges but often the moisture is depleted by the time it reaches the lower latitudes. A high pressure system is normally following the passage of a cold front and this itself will lift the freezing level - 850hPa temperature height is higher than with lower pressure events. These setups are easier to forecast but quite often produce only light snowfalls. Orographic effect plays a big role in where the snow will fall on the Northern Ranges. The high country in NE VIC and SE NSW receive the best snowfalls in these situations.

There are much better chances of snow for the Northern Ranges when a pool of very cold, and often unstable air, is driven north or northeast from the Southern Ocean west of Tasmania, across Western Victoria, and over inland NSW before impacting the Northern Ranges. In these setups, the moisture in the upper low often remains largely intact as it has encountered no other significant elevated terrain - apart from the relatively small geographic area of high ground in the Warrumbungle Ranges west of Coonabarabran, and also Mt Kaputar. Cold pools are often associated with the development of East Coast Lows in the Tasman Sea which helps enhance the available moisture supply. Another advantage of cold pools is they move relatively slowly compared to vigorous cold fronts. 850hPa temperature heights will be lower because the air pressure is lower.

Winter 2007

Winter 2007 has proven interesting for snowfalls on the Northern Tablelands and Northwest Slopes districts with three major events and one minor event within the space of a month. This is quite exceptional. The availability of detailed weather model output (weather map forecasts) and satellite loops has made forecasting these events far easier than in the past, and also allows some detail to be shown here.

8th to 9th June 2007

Forum discussion: [Australian Severe Weather] [All available weather maps]
8th June Photos: [by Michael Bath] [by Rodney Wallbridge]
9th June Photos: [by Michael Bath] [by Rodney Wallbridge]

This was a prolonged severe East Coast Low event with cold pool. The setup saw a cold pool move north through western Victoria, Western NSW and into Southwest Queensland over a couple of days prior to the rapid intensification of a coastal low. This weather system dominated the entire state of NSW. As a result of the intensification of the low, the cold pool positioned over Southwest Queensland was dragged east then southeast right over the northern half of the Northern Tablelands.

Satellite loops revealed the cold pool and upper low drew in significant moisture from the east late on the 6th and during 7th June. This moisture spiralled into Mt Kaputar during the afternoon of the 8th, and the Tenterfield and Granite Belt region from about 8pm onwards. During the 8th, Moree radar showed showers heading towards the higher ground.

Moree Sounding 9am 8th June: The temperature and moisture profile was very good for convective type cloud formation, with good lapse rates up to 550hPa and freezing levels down to about 1300 metres. It did not matter that higher levels of the atmosphere were not impressively cold given the low to mid levels were ideal for snow.
As the intense low continued its havoc around Newcastle and the Central Coast, moisture was driven inland and wrapped into the more southern parts of the Northern Tablelands after midnight.

The unusual result was heavy snowfalls a few kilometres south of the Queensland border (29 degrees south) - and on lower terrain - several hours before snowfalls set in on the higher ground around Guyra.

Mount Mackenzie, elevation 1285 metres, had its heaviest snowfall since July 1984 with an accumulation of at least 8cm by dawn on the 9th. Snow fell to about 800 metres elevation in the area including at Tenterfield, but it did not accumulate for long in those lower areas due to warming temperatures and subsequent rain. Temperatures were not observed below freezing during this event.

The Guyra to Ben Lomond areas received a widespread cover of around 4cm of snow by Saturday morning. Mt Kaputar received a great 7-8cm snow depth.

GFS Analysis of this event:

	850 hPa Temp	500 hPa Temp	700 hPa RH	850 hPa Thickness
12z 8th
18z 8th

19th to 20th June 2007

Forum discussion: [Australian Severe Weather] [All available weather maps]
20th June photos: [by Rodney Wallbridge]

The development of an East Coast Low was preceded by a cold pool heading northeast across Victoria and into NSW. The cold pool again targeted the Northern Ranges and forecasts were quite good for another decent snowfall.

A problem with this event was that the coastal low formed a little too far south and east and the anticipated good moisture levels over the tablelands did not eventuate. This can be seen in the infrared satellite loops which show extensive cloud over the Central Tablelands dissipating as it headed further north late on the 19th June. Additionally, the coldest upper level air did not make it to the Northern Tablelands.

Moree Sounding 9pm 19th June: Temperatures between the surface and 700hPa (about 3000m) were very cold -with the freezing level about 1250 metres, however the temperature profile above this was too warm (relatively) and prevented extensive cloud formation.
Snow was observed falling as far north as Deepwater during the evening of the 19th. A 1cm cover of snow was observed by morning in the Guyra area.

GFS Analysis of this event:

	850 hPa Temp	500 hPa Temp	700 hPa RH	850 hPa Thickness
12z 19th
18z 19th

28th June 2007

Forum discussion: [Australian Severe Weather] [All available weather maps]
28th June Photos: [by Michael Bath]

A complex situation with two lows in the Tasman Sea 36 hours before the snow event. A cold pool moved across Victoria. The two lows merged into an intense East Coast Low near the border of NSW and Victoria and redirected the cold pool north-northeast towards the Northern Ranges.

The satellite loop had a dramatic pattern with the East Coast low and upper low interacting. It shows the moisture plume in the upper low targeting 30 degrees south quite nicely (Kaputar is 150.10E, Guyra 151.40E).

The timing of the coldest air and best moisture would see the early morning and early afternoon the best chance of snow in the Guyra area. 850hPa temps were a little too warm to expect a big accumulation of snow on the Northern Tablelands. Conditions were more favourable for snow on Mt Kaputar in the Northwest Slopes region, with plenty of moisture and colder 850hPa temps.

Moree Sounding 9am 28th June: Quite a nice profile for cloud formation and precipitation with a reasonable lapse rate, but temperatures a touch too warm. The freezing level is only about 1500 metres at this stage - but note this sounding was taken around the end of this event.
The moisture levels were better than anticipated with constant precipitation (drizzle) from east of Tenterfield, and along the New England Highway to Glen Innes and further south. Some snow fell but did not settle at Mount Mackenzie near Tenterfield late morning. Sleet was observed at Glen Innes and it was reported there was a light cover earlier in the day.

Snow had accumulated up to 3cm along Inn Road, Ben Lomond (elevation over 1400 metres), and it snowed for the 90 minutes following 12.30pm. The temperature remained 1 to 1.5 C during this snowfall. Possibly 4cm of snow fell in Ben Lomond village around dawn. Mt Kaputar received at least 10cm of snow from this event during the AM hours of the 28th, putting this system into the major category.

GFS Analysis of this event:

	850 hPa Temp	500 hPa Temp	700 hPa RH	850 hPa Thickness
18z 27th
00z 28th

8th July 2007

Forum discussion: [Australian Severe Weather] [All available weather maps]
8th July photos: [by Michael Bath] [by Chrissy Dott] [by Rodney Wallbridge]

This system turned out to be the third major event for the Northern Ranges in a month. The setup involved another cold pool with plenty of unstable air. A low had already formed southwest of Victoria and its slow movement across Bass Straight and into the southern Tasman Sea forced the coldest air west of the low to head north-northeast to the Northern Ranges. Earlier forecast runs were tipping the coldest air to pass over the Central Ranges but it soon improved for northern areas.

The timing of the cold unstable air meant that early to late afternoon would be the peak opportunity for snowfalls. The system was different to previous ones in that it allowed the formation of large convective clouds including low topped thunderstorms to form.

The satellite loop with this event is quite revealing, clearly showing the very cold air passing over Victoria and inland NSW, then interacting with a moisture plume from the low when it was positioned in eastern Bass Straight. Widespread large cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds can be seen passing over the Northern Tablelands during the afternoon of the 8th July. Radar was also picking up these showers and low topped thunderstorms.

Moree Sounding 9am 8th July: Very good profile for both temperature and moisture with very cold air right up to about 6,500 metres. 850 hPa temps were not overly impressive but with the good lapse rates, snow showers were very likely on ground above 1,200 metres.
Some brief snow was reported at Guyra during the morning. Wintry cumulonimbus and large cumulus was observed from late morning, with the first snow shower seen at Glen Innes. Snow showers then occurred throughout the afternoon and into the early evening on the higher parts of the Northern Tablelands. Extensive lines of convective snow shower activity from 2.45pm near Llangothlin (this included some thunder), from about 4.30pm at Ben Lomond, and at Guyra soon after that were the major 'snow events' within the overall event. It was amazing to witness sunny patches and cumulonimbus clouds mid afternoon, while at the same time seeing the whole area white from snow. Temperatures were typically around 1C during the snowfalls and rising to 2C or more during the breaks in shower activity. The lowest temperature observed was 0.3C later that night near Ben Lomond.

The cover on all terrain above 1,250 metres elevation was very impressive and soon led to road closures south of Glencoe, and at Black Mountain. A large truck jack-knifed on the Ben Lomond Range and resulted in the New England Highway being closed from 5pm onwards.

4 to 6cm of dry powder snow covered many areas including Guyra and this was still on the ground well into the following day.

GFS Analysis of this event:

	850 hPa Temp	500 hPa Temp	700 hPa RH	850 hPa Thickness
00z 8th
06z 8th

Forecasting for your own snow chase

Given the background information and case studies presented above, and you want to see snowfalls on the Northern Ranges, a few steps need to be taken.

Keep in mind: