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Warm thundery weather 22nd October Bushfires NSW Qld

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

It seems there is a hint of thunderstorms beginning to be in the picture from the 22nd October over eastern NSW and lingering for some time. Obviously this depends on moisture availability. GFS has been very unreliable with predictions of moisture particularly inland around the Central West this season as with other seasons. The coastal areas are struggling with moisture but nowhere near as serious. This means Sydney and further north to the mid-north coast are in for a chance of storms over the coming days.

Meanwhile, bushfires continue to threaten communities over northern NSW and Queensland. I am certainly surprised to see Rockhampton during October getting serious fire behaviour. Personally, I have yet to see bushfires mentioned in the news so far north into the tropics. At least though the dust storms have eased for the time being.

Jimmy

Northeast NSW / Southeast Queensland Rain and Floods

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

Hi Jimmy, An interesting aspect of the developing rain event is that GFS was forecasting this well over a week ago. It’s not often the charts remain so consistent. A high ridging NE into the northern Tasman Sea is a perfect situation to cradle a coastal low for a couple of days. Brisbane could do with some heavy falls though I suspect the worst of the flooding potential will again effect the Bellinger River.

The latest GFS rainfall chart is attached. Some parts of the Tweed Valley and SE QLD have had over 100mm of rain already.

GFS rainfall accumulation

Family News and recent NSW storms

Saturday, February 28th, 2009

Hi Jimmy – that’s excellent news for you Imelda and Kimberley! A little less stress now, though it amazes me how long the whole immigration process takes. Great news your baby is doing well – not long now to go…

That supercell on the 23rd was a bit of a nice surprise close to home. I remember looking through the conditions that morning and noting the potential. In fact I still have the GFS run charts and there was quite a good setup. A few days in central NSW have been good of late.

We may see some storms up here over the next few days though the model forecasts are chopping around. I note there is no precip forecast by either GFS or LAPS for Sunday yet storms are in the forecast.
Michael