Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide

[Colin Maitland]

there is a low North of Cooktown moving south. The BOM has stated the following.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Thursday the 5th of March 2009

A low pressure system is located over the north-west Coral Sea about 360km
north-east of Cooktown. The low is expected to move slowly southwards during the
next 24 to 48 hours. The chance of this system developing into a tropical
cyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours is high.

The following posts are the SAT Syn. and land charts for the system.

Looking at the land charts it seems to be stationed around Townsville on Monday the 9 of March 2009

[Mike]

Apt to begin a thread on this developing cyclone off the Qld in the Coral Sea.  It has been developing over the last few days and many of the overseas authorities have picked up on it now.  It has strong circulation and a favorable environment.  BoM Qld give this system a high rating for development to cyclone status within 24 hours.  Today's hpa was 998 earlier on, so it is gathering momentum.  Current track is south which gives it that classic ECL movement - I think the areas already inundated could do without any more downpours, but it looks like this one will be one to watch given all the reports.  A couple of obscure reports have it moving westwards towards the GOC, but I hardly think that's possible given its steering winds at this time.  The trough it is attached to seems to be keeping it well against the coast as an ECL if it does not develop regardless.

[Colin Maitland]

Update from BOM,they have issued thier first Cyclone advice for the system


PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:41pm on Thursday the 5th of March 2009

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape
Melville to Bowen.

At 4:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 390 kilometres east of
Lockhart River and 470 kilometres north northeast of Cairns, moving west
southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

The Tropical Low is expected to move south southwest while deepening, and may
develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Friday.

Gales are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours,
however gales may develop about coastal and island communities later.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 12.9 degrees South 147.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

People between Cape Melville and Bowen should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases.  If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

I have posted the latest track map for the low, it really is looking like a rather large system at this stage

[Carlos E]

Well this certainly intensified out of nowhere, it's been a messy cluster for a while now.

Designation: 17U for this system. Seems to be intensifying pretty steadily at the moment.

Edit: This low has already developed into a Cyclone. We now have Cyclone Hamish.

[Colin Maitland]

The latest update from BOM for cyclone Hamish CAT 2

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:04am on Friday the 6th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities between
Cape Melville and Cardwell. A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island
communities from Cardwell to Hayman Island.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a category 2 cyclone, is located in the northwestern
Coral Sea and at 4:00 am EST was estimated to be 265 kilometres northeast of
Cooktown and 370 kilometres north northeast of Cairns, moving south southwest at
7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south-southwest today,
bringing it a little closer to the north tropical coast, while intensifying.
Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Melville and Cardwell by this afternoon or evening.

In the longer term the system is expected to adopt a south-southeastwards
movement and damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island
communities between Cardwell and Hayman Island within 24 to 48 hours.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 147.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

By March 6 they have Hamish as a CAt3  moving down the coast, as you can see by the track map

[Michael Bath]

Lovely large 'galaxy' type cloud pattern on VIS. The eye has become apparent in the past 2 images as well.

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=nqld&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

[Carlos E]

I'm flying out to Mackay tomorrow morning. This looks like it could be most interesting.

[Colin Maitland]

I have read through several articles from News reports, including the Cairns paper, regarding Cyclone Hamish, and this is short summary of what seems to be the facts to date.

Cyclone Hamish is threatening the far north Queensland coast and is expected to batter communities from Cairns to Mackay in the next two days.
Hamish formed into a cyclone and was named at approximately 10.00pm last night (Thursday, 5th of March, 2009.)  The category two system developed off the coast  of Cooktown, north of Cairns, and is expected to strengthen into a category three by Friday afternoon. Category 3 cyclones can produce winds at its centre of well over 200kp/h.

A cyclone warning has been issued for communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell, with a cyclone watch in place from Cardwell to Hayman Island.
Cyclone Hamish is about 370 kilometres north north east of Cairns and is moving at seven kilometres an hour parallel to the coast.
It is said that cyclone Hamish should be roughly 100km off Cape Tribulation this evening and by mid morning Saturday it should be somewhere between 60km to 140km off Cairns.

Weather bureau spokeswoman Alicia Duncanson says strong winds are expected to strengthen to gale force today, with communities being warned to prepare for damaging wind gusts of up to 130 kilometres an hour.

Wind speeds at Bougainville reef off Cooktown are currently hitting 100kp/h with similar winds set to batter the coast as the cyclone continues it south-south west track down the coast.

North Queensland is still recovering from floods caused by cyclone Ellie early last month, with some parts of the state's Gulf country still cut off by floodwaters.  Sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal expected tide along the coastline south of the cyclone.

Mr Farrell said TC Hamish might get close to the coast south of Bowen as it headed south.
"But cyclones can vary from the expected track so residents should ensure they are prepared for strong winds and rain," he said.

Mr Farrell said the bureau was expecting a continuation of heavy rainfall that should ease by Sunday.
 
Forecasters say it is Queensland's most severe cyclone of the season.

Cyclone Advice No 6 issued at 2.14pm today, shows the statistics for Hamish being:

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 982 hectoPascals

The track map at this stage shows no signs of change from this morning.
 
It will be intersting to  see how Carlos E. goes, I hope the flight is not too bumpy.
 

[Colin Maitland]

I have posted a loop of the Cairns radar at 4.55 pm EST, Friday 06/03/09

[Colin Maitland]

The current track maps seems to indicate that Hamish could possibly slide pass Makay, and has a higher possibility to cross the coast at St Lawrence. But as we have learnt from cyclones they are unpredictable. The models show Hamish just moving parallel with the coast with a slight hint of a east ward direction between  Innisfall and Cardwell, although, as said previously, it is hugging the coast line.

[Colin Maitland]

Tropical Cyclone Hamish has intensified as predicted over night and is now a cat.3 system is located in the northwestern Coral Sea and at 4:00 am EST was estimated to be 220 kilometres
east northeast of Cairns and 355 kilometres north northeast of Townsville,
moving south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Details for Hamish from BOM:

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 147.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 966 hectoPascals

Models now show Hamish Intensifying to a cat. 4 (sometime between 4.00pm Saturday and 4.00am Sunday,) as he continues moving down the coast.
 

[Michael Bath]

Latest GFS forecast has the cyclone directly affecting SE QLD by Monday...

Also, some obs from Holmes Reef east of Cairns which had the centre of the cyclone pass right over.

[sandlion]

Hello..complete noob here :)

My friend passed this onto me as a link:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_tracks/dynamic/current/NONAME_18P_2009030612.gif

shows the track crossing nr Gladstone and Yeppoon then west towards  the coalfields...which is where I am heading tomorrow...looks like an interesting drive :)

EDIt: The linked navy websites shows a security certificate error, but thats just cos it US military...dont fear any nasties from proceeding..promise :)

[Richary]

This has spun up and intensified very quickly. I also saw the Holmes Reef obs and was going to post them but you beat me to it.

Now I guess the only question was where it might decide to make landfall. Not a good week to be holidaying in the Whitsundays!

[Antonio (stormboy)]

I hope cyclone Hamish dose not affect us in a bad way here in se QLD north nsw my nans coming from Sydney directly on Monday and she’s having second thoughts now cause the latest prediction shows cat 4 south of makay closing in se QLD scary if it does.