Australian Severe Weather Forum

Latest update sees things easing a tad as warnings are discontinued as Ike moves further inland.  A low pressure trough to the NW is steering him N/NE.

WTNT34 KNHC 130853
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE GALVESTON-HOUSTON AREA...
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR NEAR BAYTOWN TEXAS.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF HOUSTON
TEXAS.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH
IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951.6 MB...28.10 INCHES...AS THE EYE
OF IKE PASSED OVER THE STATION.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE.  AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
 
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
 
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Not much more from me re Ike as he travels inland.  The norm with rain, wind and the like but got this water vapor loop from the NOAA site.  It's so cool to view as the circulation and rainbands is just beautiful - if I can use that word - it's very impressive.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

I have been watching this for hours and it is a beautiful hurricane in terms of its circulation at the same website stated by Mike.

I have been going though local forecasts from Galveston including current reports. I have found out that some buoys have been damaged / destroyed. The storm surge seems to be 15 feet but could reach 18 feet. However, some instruments appear to be destroyed or not operating so I cannot see all the data.

It was a direct hit on Galveston but the damage seems to be significant. I think the authorities are furious because in addition to 40% of the population staying in Galveston being some 20,000 residents who disregarded the warnings to leave, there have been some 2,300 urgent calls for help on 911. There might be a higher death toll than the 2 reported so far but that is still to unfold.

On CNN I read a report that electricity has been knocked out to 1.8 million customers in Houston. Ike came ashore on Galveston Island as a Category 2 and started to come ashore at 4.25 pm (AEST) right on Galveston. It had winds at that time of 110 MPH.

Although a weather statement at Galveston right at the time of landfall stated:-

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH OR 137 KM / HR.

That occurred just minutes before landfall and the highest wind gust report that I could find at that time. The eye was beginning to cross Galveston Island by 4.25 pm (AEST).

I managed to get into a web site with breaking storeys taken 7.30 PM AEST and USA Today plus other updates at:-

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2008-09-13-hurricane-ike-texas_N.htm

Events are unfolding and includes:-

- Ike whipped into Galveston after 3 am.
- As night fell Friday, 911 operators were besieged by pleas for help but it was too late.
- At 5 am, the Hurricane was located 25 miles east of Houston (The eye was over the eastern suburbs of the city).
- Late Friday, waves were crashing over the seawall in Galveston and 300 people had to be rescued.
- There is also a curfew in the city.
- A bulk carrier is languishing after breaking down off Galveston but the 22 on board still cannot be rescued.
- The storm has shut down 97% of oil production and 94% of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.
- The Port of Houston has been closed.

Full analysis and interactive reading, weather reports, updates, photos, satellite photos and updates from the SPC can be found at that web site stated.

There are numerous early photos of water and inundation of areas of Galveston.

I was reading on another site a statement from insurers that fortell a possible damage bill as high as $25 Billion. It is being regarded as the first major strike on a major US city since Katrina in 2005. Insurers do not like this one especially with around $1 Trillion worth of property insured around Houston. Watch this one and see what it does to the USA economy.

Harley Pearman

Have been having fun during the afternoon watching some of the live TV feeds, including from Galveston while they were outside in the eye of the hurricane. All nice and calm, apart from the flooding and debris, with the winds to pick up again a bit later of course. Mainly been watching the feeds IDing as Local 2 or ABC13 as they seem to be the most stable, the others keep pausing on my dodgy internet connection.

Should be getting light there now, might have to have another look.

Galveston - The aftermath

I thought it would be appropriate to provide a few words regarding the aftermath. Hurricane Ike has now been down graded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and it will continue to weaken. It is just dumping rain now with rainfalls of between 75 and 125 mm is expected over wide areas of Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

The storm surge was reported around 4.5 metres or 15 feet in Galveston which was less than the 20 to 22 feet (6 to 6.5 metres) expected.

Damage is heavy in the city but rescue workers are only just starting to see what has happened here. Floods in Galveston City reached 2 metres deep at the peak of the storm.

There are skyscrapers in Houston with their windows blown in and electricity is out to a rather large area. The clean up operation is only just in its infancy and the number of fatalities is still at 2 but it is early days yet.

One thing it has done is to spike oil prices so this has affected the prices of oil and this will have a flow on effect in due course.

Harley Pearman

Indeed.  Sure has made for some good reading from all.  I don't think I've stayed up so late watching live streams in a long time!  Only one other disturbance in the Atlantic and although has spiral circulation it's not anything to be concerned about just yet.  As is the norm with these storms all the aftermath effects flow onto us again - usually always bad fuel wise.  Spare a thought for those in the affected areas - they must really detest hurricane season, but it's something they have to live with and are all to familiar with.

Thanks all for the comments since the thread started, I've thoroughly enjoyed all of them.

Some damage comparison shots are becoming available.  This site will have more in a day or two

http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/bolivar.html

There's a photo on the front page of our paper today which shows a similar pic. Except this two story dwelling is the ONLY house standing on a very large stretch of coastline!  Don't know if it was raised higher than the rest but it's pretty sureal and the owners must be gobsmacked!

More damage photos:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html

Satellite loop - why can't "our" satellite go on rapid scan mode with scans every 5-10 minutes?  The GOES-12 blank "eclipse" images mean the satellite was in Earth's shadow and the batteries are not strong enough to power operations. GOES-13 has a bigger battery to last while there is no solar power.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/080913_g12_g13_ir_anim.gif