Australian Severe Weather Forum

USA Tornado numbers for 2008 - Update

This is worth a post here. The Storm Prediction Centre website has been updated and the tornado numbers for 2008 are remarkable. The numbers occurring is well above average:-

1577 tornado reports till June 10 2008.
350 confirmed till June 10 2008.

The 10 year average trend is 1,270 tornadoes.

This year there have been 118 tornado fatalities from 32 tornadoes which is almost double the 10 year average of 62 broken down as:-

1 X EF5
7 X EF4
11 X EF3
9 X EF2
4 X EF1

For a total of 32.

As I write this, there has just been another weak tornado reported in central Iowa from a thunderstorm that is warned for possible tornadoes. This occurred at 1.46 am CDT.

The year 2008 is going down as a year that is certainly breaking the averages.

Harley Pearman

Hi guys,
I have seen a shot taken in Iowa by Lori Mehmen (not a chaser but a novice photographer from what I have read) on the 10th of June. I cant believe a non chaser got so lucky with such an great capture! I only wish we could've seen the meso/wallcloud base a little better? What a monster structure!

Here's the link to the article in the New York Times: http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/13/a-remarkable-photo-from-tornado-country/

Kindest regards,
Shauno 

Hi guys,

Here you will see some impressive footage of probe being place in the path of a tornado by Roger Hill   May 19 2008

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=jyKB_LjdHlg&feature=related

There are a few probes being placed out there hmmm.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

The cow in the hail at the end is a nice touch , though would have been better if it took off

Michael,

You must be a fan of BBQ steak - well done style!

Seriously the footage is impressive and it is interesting to what level storm chasing has escalated in the United States during 2008 during a pretty active period late May into June!

Anyway, I will try sussing out some more clips from this season.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

I agree with Jimmy's remarks about the evolution of storm chasing in the USA.  Even in the 4 years ive been over, it is remarkeable to see the changes.  It is now more common to see or hear about probes, live streaming chase video is the 'in thing', online chaser-tracking networks are growing and crazy (risky) up close chasing videos (and one-upmanship) are seen by some as 'the prize'.  Some of these changes have certainly added to the experience and the science but the worst thing i've experienced is some of the driving (and parking) of chasers and tour groups alike - especially this year.  We had some experiences that were truly attrocious and in my opinion there will no doubt be a fatality directly attributable to poor driving (or parking) during a chase.

Brad et al...do you think the chase craze has gotten out of hand with some of the more redneck element seeping in cashing in on all this?  I've seen videos of idiotic behavior by guys who say they are experienced and bag the hell out of Josh's DOW and the TIV without any clue of how important their work is, yet they follow them in some beat up sedan with a home made probe with a camera mounted inside and putting themselves in danger without doing all the sensible things to avoid such a thing?

The data that's collected by the pro guys takes years to decipher and put together as a model for specific elements of tornado and supercell formation, does anyone think the same as me or am i just being pedantic!

Mike there is no doubt that poor behaviour is occuring more prevalently over there now than a few years ago.  However it is not rampant, nor did we see it on every chase.  The location and timing of a chase can be a contributing factor.  For instance, chasing the southern plains on or near the long weekend (like this year) can lead to a massive convergence and some really poor and risky behaviour which we saw.  But of course you dont have to have a large convergence for someone to do something risky.  And then there's the flip side - if you dont take some element of risk then you possibly wont be in any position to view a tornado if it occurs.  The key is to chase with responsible, experienced and level-headed people that share the same expectations and realistic goals, and to ensure that the group you are in considers other people out there.  Then we can all chase happily ever after 

Thanks for the reply, Brad.  It just seems that every time you look at the footage on the tube or on the net that there's some idiot doing stupid things chasing a tornado without the commonsense aspect to which we are all trying to encourage.  That special capture is always ever present when chasing and I agree that some risks need to be taken to get them, but thankfully there are still professionals who like to take the risk and get the footage but with safety in mind first up.  I was just sick and tired of seeing reckless behavior overpowering the needs of one's personal safety!

It's something we'll continue to see simply because dramatic footage pays good money by the media - a bit like vultures at an accident scene.  All we can do is encourage people to chase with someone with experience and do it the right way - for science and one's own pleasure.

If anyone is heading over to the States in 2009, may be worth looking to book some airfares shortly. Although Air NZ has always been the cheapest to fly SYD/LAX it's a bit of a pain in the butt having to go via Auckland both ways. V Australia have another special out at the of $1185 (including tax!) which is pretty impressive for a Non Stop service.

If I was heading over I would seriously be booking this special ... You wont get much cheaper to the States esp compared to a standard fare of $1899! (I think the sale ends Dec 29, 2008).

With Delta about to fly the route from July onwards fares like this could become more common.

To get to LA from Auckland we have to pay $1800 incl tax and that's a cheapie. So the $1200 looks incredible. You need to have flexibility with the ticket  in case you want to change the date. I like Qantas as they are always very accommodating with changes.

Setup over there today looks very interesting. Not sure what to make of it for tornadoes. It would be a better set up for tornadoes if the low level shear was more directional.  The SPC are calling it a 10% prob.   

Those winter set ups in the US are very similar to the winter/spring set ups here in NZ. Big dynamics, high shear, low CAPE.  No good for storm chasing.  Western Australia gets a similar thing in winter.